Ragnar's Magic 8-Ball Needs a Tune-Up

On Monday, I made a few predictions. How did the Magic 8 Ball perform? Let's see:

Prediction #1 : The next two days will bring more questions than answers as to whether the North Korean explosion was actually a nuclear detonation. By the end of this week, there will be some level of consensus one way or the other. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on "not nuclear," but not a lot of money. I'm not sure if that makes me an optimist or a pessimist. I also predict that those who question whether the North Koreans are telling the truth will (ironically) be denounced as "commie apologists" or some such. If it was a fake, the rest of us can only ask : WTF??
Outcome: Partially correct. After a week of analysis, there appears to be consensus that there was nothing approaching a successful nuclear detonation by North Korea. We may not know for some time whether the small explosion was an unsuccessful attempt to set off a nuclear device or merely a hoax intended to make headlines. OTOH, I haven't yet heard anyone denounced as a "commie apologist." (Follow-up prediction: it was a hoax.)

MORE BELOW THE FOLD

Prediction #2 : Although the North Korean explosion will dominate the news for a few days, the next week will bring more Democrat-sourced revelations about what the House leadership knew about Mark Foley's habits in the 1995-2005 time frame. This will give the news media an excuse to move the Foley story back to the front pages, which is, of course, what they will do--particularly if the North Korean "nuclear" detonation turns out to have been a fake.
Outcome: WRONG-O! There have been no new revelations about Foleygate this week. As such, North Korea is still on the front pages. If the Dems have already launched their best stuff, they may regret the early timing of the Foley disclosures. The Harry Reid embarrassment may have ruined the Dems' appetite for "let's air out everyone's dirty laundry." Alternately, the Dems may still be holding back. Difficult to see. Always changing is the future.
Prediction #3 : The hit for Masturgate has mostly been taken by the GOP polling numbers. Further revelations about the leadership's earlier knowledge of Foley's behavior will have little additional effect on Republican numbers going forward UNLESS there is concrete evidence directly contradicting Hastert's declaration of innocence at his press conference last week. The public has gotten accustomed to politicians revising their stories a few times after a scandal breaks, but there's a limit. It essentially comes down to whether or not there's any concrete evidence that Hastert had knowledge of "vile" (i.e., sexually explicit) messages to underage pages prior to their recent publication. Only time will tell. I predict more uncomfortable revelations between now and next week, but no "smoking gun."
Outcome: Wrong (sort of). Given that there haven't been any new revelations this week, it's impossible to address what effect they may have had.

Posted by: Ragnar at 12:51 PM

Comments

1 If it was a hoax that makes two. (Including Saddam's pretentions to having a WMD program.) It may be a characteristic of totalitarian regimes, especially those based on personality cult, that they're compelled by the internal political dynamic to make claims to unlimitted power, even if they can't deliver. I'm not sure this applies, however, to a totalitarian system run by a committee, as is the case with Iran. And, of course, we can't assume that these are mere pretensions.

Posted by: Demosophist at October 13, 2006 02:11 PM

2 Dems already sank their ship with the new tactic of attacking their opponents personal lives. This flies in the face of their argument during the Clinton sex scandal where they said it was only sex and not a crime. It is already backfiring on them and as the exposure is increased they will look like a vindictive group of thugs.

Posted by: SeeMonk at October 13, 2006 03:45 PM

3 SeeMonk: Lieberman winning will be akin to shoveing the Dems lack of loyality down their throats. I do believe he will win.

Posted by: Greyrooster at October 15, 2006 08:12 PM






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