A Few Predictions...

I haven't tuned up my Magic Eight Ball in a while, so let's see if the thing still works worth a damn:

Prediction #1 : The next two days will bring more questions than answers as to whether the North Korean explosion was actually a nuclear detonation. By the end of this week, there will be some level of consensus one way or the other. If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on "not nuclear," but not a lot of money. I'm not sure if that makes me an optimist or a pessimist. I also predict that those who question whether the North Koreans are telling the truth will (ironically) be denounced as "commie apologists" or some such. If it was a fake, the rest of us can only ask : WTF??

Prediction #2 : Although the North Korean explosion will dominate the news for a few days, the next week will bring more Democrat-sourced revelations about what the House leadership knew about Mark Foley's habits in the 1995-2005 time frame. This will give the news media an excuse to move the Foley story back to the front pages, which is, of course, what they will do--particularly if the North Korean "nuclear" detonation turns out to have been a fake.

Prediction #3 : The hit for Masturgate has mostly been taken by the GOP polling numbers. Further revelations about the leadership's earlier knowledge of Foley's behavior will have little additional effect on Republican numbers going forward UNLESS there is concrete evidence directly contradicting Hastert's declaration of innocence at his press conference last week. The public has gotten accustomed to politicians revising their stories a few times after a scandal breaks, but there's a limit. It essentially comes down to whether or not there's any concrete evidence that Hastert had knowledge of "vile" (i.e., sexually explicit) messages to underage pages prior to their recent publication. Only time will tell. I predict more uncomfortable revelations between now and next week, but no "smoking gun."

OK, that's what my Magic Eight Ball's telling me. Like I said, only time will tell if the thing still works. If it's off, it's definitely going back to the shop for a tune-up...

Posted by: Ragnar at 04:32 PM


1 Predicting the obvious again, are we?

Posted by: n.a. palm at October 09, 2006 06:07 PM

2 So, the Nork "nuke"onviouslyIS a fake? There areobviously MORE Foley revelations coming out this week? The new Foley revelationsobviously WON'T affect GOP polling numbers? Cool. The eight ball still works.

Posted by: The All-Seeing Pirate Ragnar at October 09, 2006 07:07 PM

3 Are the new revelations about Foley, or about the reliability and credibility of the information and the reliability and crdeibility of the source/sources, as well as the manner and timing of it's realease?

Posted by: witch at October 09, 2006 07:17 PM

4 Revelations about the manner in which the Dems have used this info are interesting in an academic sense, but they don't appear to have legs. I know some folks don't like to hear that, but it's just the truth. These stories move across the blogosphere, but they're not catching on in the MSM, and they're not going to. The reason for this is as follows: people EXPECT political opertives to conjure up "dirty tricks" and "October Surprises." That is what they do. That is their job. "In other news, a dog bit the postman today and several thousand airplanes took off and landed without incident." Dirty tricks have been employed by American politicians all the way back to the earliest days of the Republic. An election without any dirty tricks? Now THAT would be newsworthy. Trust me, folks: that dog's just not gonna hunt this time around. Wishing and hoping it catches on is not gonna make it so.

OK, I'm done. Fire away.

Posted by: The All-Seeing Pirate Ragnar at October 09, 2006 08:15 PM

5 According to Oliver North on FOX this evening, the North Koreans are planning the second 'test' thursday, so this story may have more legs this week than you have anticipated.

I would 'like' to believe that Sunday's blast was conventional in nature however I am leaning (falling) toward the camp that this was the real thing.

The problem I see with the math here though is this. If we are to believe that NK only has enough plutonium to produce 4-6 bombs as we are being told, would they use 25-50% of thier inventory on tests?

The numbers may be off and in the final analysis just mayadd up to the sum of all fears.

This will be an interesting week however it plays out.


Posted by: Billy at October 09, 2006 08:58 PM

6 Was it a nuke? I don't know. But I've heard that
seismologists say it had the signature of a small nuke. I'm no
seismologist. But that chubby little dog eater needs his ass
kicked for deliberately trying to provoke and cause fear for those
around him. While he's playing his stupid little games, his
citizens are eating grass trying to stave off death by starvation.

Posted by: Oyster at October 10, 2006 07:18 AM

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