Post-Election State-by-State Trend Analysis (With Maps!)

One of the problems with pre-election war-gaming is that some simulations assume roughly uniform movement in all states based on previous elections and national polling. As you can see in the map below, this is clearly not the case. There are often regional trends, bounces for a candidate's home state, etc.

The first map below shows each state and the direction and intensity that the state moved from the 2008 election to the 2012 election.

2008vs2012

As you can see, only five states moved in Obama's direction and there are explanations for each.

New Jersey and New York: This is probably the result of a Sandy bounce.

Louisiana and Mississippi: Unless there is a broader trend I'm missing, this is most likely not so much movement in 2012 but instead urban voters still displaced from Hurricane Katrina in 2008 that had finally returned home by this election. That could be wrong, but that's my guess.

Alaska: Sarah Palin bounce in 2008. Interestingly, Arizona did not see a similar crash in 2012.

The next map compares each state's 2012 change to the national trend of 4.4% movement towards the GOP. This will show whether a state underperformed or outperformed the popular vote movement.

2012vsNational

As you might expect, the Northeast didn't show much movement towards the GOP. What's interesting is just how badly the Southeast underperformed the national trend in 2012. The knee-jerk takeaway is probably that Evangelicals were a bit underwhelmed by Mitt Romney.

The Southwest has been rumored to be the future graveyard of the GOP, but both New Mexico and Nevada outperformed the national trend. Arizona's lack of movement is probably more the result of a slight 2008 bounce for McCain than anything else. So, perhaps that conclusion is a little premature.

Those all-important swing states of Virginia, Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Colorado? All of them underperformed the national trend. I'm sure Obama's ad blitz, early voting push and microtargeting focus on these states had plenty to do with that.

Some good news: the Rust Belt (minus Ohio) seems to be moving in the GOP's direction as a region. Unfortunately, it wasn't quite fast enough for the 2012 election but Republicans would be smart to target this region more forcefully in upcoming elections.

Finally, the gut punch: See the five reddest states on that map? This indicates the strongest movement towards the GOP in 2012 and all five states went to Mitt Romney decisively. There were also Senate races in those five states. We lost four of them.

Update: It seems I didn't explain this well enough. First map shows movement in 2012 relative to 2008. So, for example:

South Carolina: 2008 - GOP by 8.9%, 2012 - GOP by 10.6%. So the trend is only 1.7% towards the GOP, hence light red.

Second map compares this 1.7% movement to the national popular trend of 4.4% towards the GOP. Hence, South Carolina underperformed the national trend. So, blue.

Posted by: JohnE. at 02:48 PM



Comments

1 Maps!

Posted by: Witchfinder at November 21, 2012 02:52 PM (pLTLS)

2 I'm confused.

Posted by: © Sponge at November 21, 2012 02:54 PM (UK9cE)

3 So...........did we actually win?

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 21, 2012 02:56 PM (9ghZ6)

4 I am looking at SC and this can not be correct. Romney actually won SC by a wider margin than McCain.

Am I missing something here?

Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 02:56 PM (YdQQY)

5 It's crazy to think how much 2008 set the GOP back, it's even crazier to think of how much timing factors into this. If Sandy is a month earlier a week later, job reports, stock markets, 2008 crash, all of these things.

Posted by: Adam Smith's Invisible Pimp Hand at November 21, 2012 02:57 PM (NzBQO)

6 Montana: Hard to believe that a state could move to the red so heavily on a federal level, yet continue to elect egg-sucking democrats on a state level.

Posted by: Fritz at November 21, 2012 02:57 PM (/ZZCn)

7 "The knee-jerk takeaway is probably that Evangelicals were a bit underwhelmed by Mitt Romney."



The numbers I saw had Evangelicals at almost the same voting % as they were in 2008 and Romney got 4% more of their vote in 2012.

Posted by: Tami at November 21, 2012 02:57 PM (X6akg)

8 >>>I am looking at SC and this can not be correct. Romney actually won SC by a wider margin than McCain.

Right, which is why it is slight red in the first map. This indicates it moved slightly more the GOP's direction.

The second map compares this movement to the national trend of 4.4% to the GOP. Meaning, SC didn't move nearly as much as the national popular vote.

Posted by: JohnE. at November 21, 2012 02:58 PM (nRTou)

9 The map....how do it KNOW?

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 21, 2012 02:59 PM (9ghZ6)

10 So, this is like math disguised as purdy pitchers?

Posted by: LC LaWedgie at November 21, 2012 03:00 PM (rzTDZ)

11 Ya got a blue-red county map you could post? I like the blue-red county post. Ya got any of them cause a blue-red county mappost is something I like. A map that shows the red counties and blue counties would be a map I would like. Anything showing red counties vs blue counties would be enjoyable to see. If at all possible to be able to show the different counties and which ones went blue and which ones went red. That would be a good map to post.

Posted by: polynikes at November 21, 2012 03:00 PM (m2CN7)

12 Kind of shocked by Oregon and Nevada, but maybe it's everyone fleeing California? I know a lot of friends who moved to Oregon the past six years, but most of them were young and liberal.

Posted by: Adam Smith's Invisible Pimp Hand at November 21, 2012 03:00 PM (NzBQO)

13 {i]The second map compares this movement to the
national trend of 4.4% to the GOP. Meaning, SC didn't move nearly as
much as the national popular vote.

Posted by: JohnE. at November 21, 2012 02:58 PM (nRTou)

OK gotcha. SC was already pretty red, hard to move further red. Especially when 40% of the State is black.

Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 03:01 PM (YdQQY)

14
Ya got a blue-red county map you could post? I like the blue-red county post. Ya got any of them cause a blue-red county mappost is something I like. A map that shows the red counties and blue counties would be a map I would like. Anything showing red counties vs blue counties would be enjoyable to see. If at all possible to be able to show the different counties and which ones went blue and which ones went red. That would be a good map to post.
====
Ha! I was thinking that. Well, not ALL that.

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 21, 2012 03:04 PM (9ghZ6)

15 What the fuck just happened?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 21, 2012 03:05 PM (79ueO)

16 Who ate the turkey thread?

Posted by: John P. Squibob at November 21, 2012 03:05 PM (kqqGm)

17 Yeah, the joke just isn't that funny when you have to explain it over and over.

Posted by: © Sponge at November 21, 2012 03:06 PM (UK9cE)

18 Dozens of commenters are trapped in a disappeared post!

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 21, 2012 03:06 PM (QKKT0)

19 I think ace realized he stomped JohnE.

Posted by: Tami at November 21, 2012 03:06 PM (X6akg)

20 16 Who ate the turkey thread?

Posted by: John P. Squibob at November 21, 2012 03:05 PM (kqqGm)

--O.J. He likes carving white meat.

Posted by: logprof at November 21, 2012 03:06 PM (gBuIk)

21 This is why we can't have nice things.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at November 21, 2012 03:07 PM (ON54M)

22 O.J. He likes carving white meat.
Posted by: logprof at November 21, 2012 03:06 PM (gBuIk)

Now that is gonna leave a mark

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 21, 2012 03:07 PM (79ueO)

23 Bazinga, logprof.

Posted by: John P. Squibob at November 21, 2012 03:07 PM (kqqGm)

24 Who ate the turkey thread?
================

BuRp

Posted by: John Lennon at November 21, 2012 03:07 PM (3ZtZW)

25 gut punch indeed. why are we so stupid?

Posted by: L is an elle at November 21, 2012 03:07 PM (0PiQ4)

26 GOP must take the rust belt upper midwest back and do it hard.

And fuck MN. Leave them to the dogs.

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:07 PM (tVTLU)

27 ion't think MS and LA have much to do with displaced voters returning home...i think it just has to do with the fact that both states had large numbers of untapped black populations that probably never voted much in the past and were brought to the polls along with the rest of the Highest Black Turnout In Electoral History.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:08 PM (79EF9)

28
Especially when 40% of the State is black.

I think you meant incompetent

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at November 21, 2012 03:09 PM (R8hU8)

29 People are just bound and determined to blame "Evangelicals" aren't they?

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 21, 2012 03:09 PM (da5Wo)

30 What? No London Boys? I feel cheated.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at November 21, 2012 03:09 PM (jucos)

31 Burn the geography witch!

Posted by: WalrusRex at November 21, 2012 03:09 PM (AZrre)

32 Hamas Politburo Chief Khaled Mashaal said at a press conference in Cairo that "The Israelis capitulated to the terms dictated by the resistance. Eight days of fighting forced them to surrender… The enemy's leaders failed in their adventure." (Roi Kais)

One question: Why is he still breathing?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 21, 2012 03:10 PM (79ueO)

33 What the hell? I was just getting ready to post Grandma's famous ferret - on - a - stick appetizer?

Posted by: tubal at November 21, 2012 03:10 PM (BoE3Z)

34 ō women are the incompetents of the world ♫

Posted by: John Lennon at November 21, 2012 03:10 PM (3ZtZW)

35

I was enjoying that thanksgiving thread.


Posted by: dan-O at November 21, 2012 03:10 PM (sWycd)

36 I want the food back.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 21, 2012 03:10 PM (VtjlW)

37 It's crazy to think how much 2008 set the GOP back, it's even crazier to think of how much timing factors into this.

Hahahahahahahahahaha! You think '08 was a setback!

http://bit.ly/US6Txv

Posted by: John Boehner at November 21, 2012 03:11 PM (tQHzJ)

38 "The numbers I saw had Evangelicals at almost the same voting % as they were in 2008 and Romney got 4% more of their vote in 2012."

yep. ace, i think, put something like that up earlier.

i honestly think it has to do with the same population of untapped black voters that probably sent MS and LA a little blue vs. 2008...there is a large black population in the south, one which has not typically been known to vote in large percentages. with the unprecedented black turnout spurred by obama's 2012 gotv, the blue vs. national we are seeing is probably a result of regional racial demographics. not many blacks in montana or idaho...

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:12 PM (79EF9)

39 JohnE, it appears that a sizable number of Obama voters in 2008 stayed home in 2012.

It also appeared that a sizable number of Bush voters in 2004 stayed home in 2008 rather than vote for McCain.

Last I saw Romney got the same number of votes as McCain.

So why did those Bush voters in 2004 still stay home?

Posted by: John P. Squibob at November 21, 2012 03:12 PM (kqqGm)

40
36
I want the food back.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 21, 2012 03:10 PM (VtjlW)


Here, have this tequila while you wait.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 21, 2012 03:13 PM (da5Wo)

41
Can someone pinpoint Brattleboro, Vermont on the map, and also Mary's phone number so we can call ahead and not surprise her with our visit.

Posted by: B-52 Arc Light Command at November 21, 2012 03:13 PM (lDWQr)

42 >>>So why did those Bush voters in 2004 still stay home?

That's a question we better find the answer to.

Posted by: JohnE. at November 21, 2012 03:13 PM (nRTou)

43 Overall voter turnout was still pretty low, IIRC

Posted by: uterus cannon at November 21, 2012 03:14 PM (3ZtZW)

44 >>>i honestly think it has to do with the same population of untapped black voters that probably sent MS and LA a little blue vs. 2008

This might be true. It's just odd that it was the two Katrina states.

Posted by: JohnE. at November 21, 2012 03:14 PM (nRTou)

45 I didn't even get to plug that recipe into my program yet.

Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 03:15 PM (YdQQY)

46 I think Bush's 2nd term shut down a lot of Repubs.

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 21, 2012 03:15 PM (9ghZ6)

47 Is this as reliable as the AOSHQ Decision Desk?

Posted by: tsj017 at November 21, 2012 03:15 PM (n+pBt)

48 >>>So why did those Bush voters in 2004 still stay home?

They dint stay home! They wuz killed in an ILLEGAL WUR! wingnut

Posted by: OWS Troofer at November 21, 2012 03:15 PM (3ZtZW)

49 Good stuff. Should give some hope to all the whiny pusses around here threatening to flee to Uruguay or some other place that is eager to accept a wave of whiny puss immigrants.

Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at November 21, 2012 03:16 PM (+lsX1)

50 These maps are actually pretty disheartening. They show that this nation has almostfucked itself into accepting all of the edicts of marxism. Dear Leader shouldn't have had a chance in hell to get re-elected. Yet, here we are.

I know I'm going to be blasted for this, but these maps show that the concept of freedom and liberty isbecoming extinct.

Posted by: Soona at November 21, 2012 03:17 PM (78QmA)

51 Should give some hope to all the {goldbrickers} around here threatening to flee to Uruguay or some other place...

I hear Bolivia is nice.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at November 21, 2012 03:17 PM (4+LTj)

52 Good stuff. Should give some hope to all the whiny pusses around here threatening to flee to Uruguay or some other place that is eager to accept a wave of whiny puss immigrants.==============================================

Only if they show up to vote. Which they didin't. Apathy is killing us as surely as anything else. Plus, I'll take a dual-passport in a trice for a back door out of tyranny. It'd be dumb not to.

Posted by: uterus cannon at November 21, 2012 03:19 PM (3ZtZW)

53 very neat stuff, John.

Posted by: ace at November 21, 2012 03:19 PM (LCRYB)

54 Should give some hope to all the {goldbrickers} around here threatening to flee to Uruguay or some other place...

I hear Bolivia is nice.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at November 21, 2012 03:17 PM (4+LTj)
------------------------------------------------------
I believe we were talking about Belize.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at November 21, 2012 03:20 PM (jucos)

55 I just can't get into "how do win next time" I feel like I'm in Atlas Shrugged minus any Galt luring smart people away to shield themselves from the mess. If it was only people voting for personal greed it wouldn't be so bad because they might realize they are starving the goose that lays the golden eggs and change course. But how does one fight the nihilists and idiots that actually think the Demonrats are better for the country? Doesn't seem like there will be time to pound sense into them.

Posted by: PaleRider at November 21, 2012 03:21 PM (dkExz)

56 "I know I'm going to be blasted for this, but these maps show that the concept of freedom and liberty isbecoming extinct."

ace had a GREAT post -- his best post-election analysis, imo -- about the presidency being such a Big Thing that it transcends the personal qualifications of any candidate. people vote Ideas and Movements into the presidential office more than they do candidates.

romney's personal narrative of "i'm pretty damn good at making myself money" wasn't enough to counter the infectious, lofty rhetoric of obama 2008 -- damaged as his brand was by the, uh, incompetence of his first four years' efforts.

since we ostensibly missed a large swath of the bush electorate that probably would never vote for obama but just couldn't bring themselves to vote for a Plastic Banker, maybe liberty isn't lost -- maybe the lesson we need to learn is that the presidency is about memes and viral messaging as much as it is about personal narratives.

the office of Leader Of The Free World has lost of a lot of lustre, but it's still bigger than any one man.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:23 PM (79EF9)

57 This retired cattle rancher from church kept saying he knew he should vote for Romney but really didn't want to. He was saying this the week before the election and every time he brought it up a lot of the old rednecks his age muttered the same thing. I am sure he didn't vote. Granted this is anecdotal, but I think Mitt was a hard sell to rural and blue collar whites. The varmints comment I guess wasn't convincing.

Posted by: L is an elle at November 21, 2012 03:23 PM (0PiQ4)

58 Fine, fuck it!
Grandma's Famous Ferret:
1 Black-footed ferret (two if in-laws come over)
(make sure ferret is dead, not from disease!)
1 bottle Famous Dave's Tangy Sauce
12 bulbs garlic
Skin ferret- don't discard head!
Remove feet and entrails, retain to make gravy, along with head.
Separate carcass with cleaver (debone if you have time).
Skewer parts on straightened coat-hanger, alternating with the garlic.
Make sure charcoal grill is fully lit, and, important, outside.
Before roasting ferret, add entrails, feet and head to salty water. Cook down until there's little water. Probably should do this outside, too. Add the Famous Dave's. Cayenne pepper (optional) should be added for that extra zing!
Pour what you get over the skewered ferret, and turn it over fire until a little black.

Serve with a nice risotto. Delicious!

Posted by: tubal at November 21, 2012 03:23 PM (BoE3Z)

59 I believe we were talking about Belize.
Posted by: Truck Monkey at November 21, 2012 03:20 PM (jucos)


-----------------------------------------


I'm going to see how those free-market cities in Honduras (?) pan out. That may be the place to go. It's warm there too.

Posted by: Soona at November 21, 2012 03:24 PM (78QmA)

60 Pennsylvania is now closer than Colorado.
let that sink in.
And as much as MI-WI shifted Obama still won, shows you how much we were set back, but also how ripe that region is for us.

Now, make a map comparing 2012 to 2004.
Drink heavily first.

Posted by: Annonymous Comment by someone who totally isn't CAC at November 21, 2012 03:24 PM (vS9+W)

61 Can I haz the cliff notes?

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at November 21, 2012 03:26 PM (wR+pz)

62 I'm going to see how those free-market cities in Honduras (?) pan out. That may be the place to go. It's warm there too.

Posted by: Soona at November 21, 2012 03:24 PM (78QmA)


It doesn't go well

Posted by: Omni Consumer Products at November 21, 2012 03:26 PM (da5Wo)

63 I hear Bolivia is nice.


Posted by: Meiczyslaw at November 21, 2012 03:17 PM (4+LTj)

The hell you say

Posted by: Robert LeRoy Parker at November 21, 2012 03:26 PM (YdQQY)

64 38% of Mississippi is black. You read that right. 38%!!!!!!!!!!

Yet MS is a "safe" GOP state. Why? Because Southern whites aren't fucking stupid and there are no unions in the South.

White people vote 90% pub in the South. How in the world has the north supported the scum demorats for so long is beyond me.

It's not like WI or OH are bastions of diversity. They are WHITER than the south.'

Now that'sa real story to analyze.

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:26 PM (tVTLU)

65 OK folks, I found that thread that ace linked and I have plugged the recipe in my cookbook program and will post the dietary info when ace puts it back up.

Posted by: Robert LeRoy Parker at November 21, 2012 03:27 PM (YdQQY)

66 55 - I look at it like this: We're becoming France. We won't get totally stripped of everything, just hectored [ahem] by regulations and held hostage by Unions doing General Strikes for BS. Right now, the restaurant owners doing 30-hour weeks are being boycotted, but by 2016 the Unions will see 30 hours as the upper limit of work allowed and go on strike if you want them to work for 40 hours. So, no the golden goose won't be killed but rather put on a near-starvation diet.

There are Galters trying to lure people away. The Dollar Vigilante folks are all about that. Its a business.

Posted by: uterus cannon at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (3ZtZW)

67 "Pennsylvania is now closer than Colorado.
let that sink in."

actually, that's not what the map shows.

it shows that pennsylvania shifted further to the right than did colorado...but keep in mind that pennsylvania also had a much larger +d advantage to shift in the first place!

i'm pretty sure PA went for obama in a larger margin than did CO this year, but i can't rly be bothered to look it up for fear of being intractably disheartened >.> fucking WEED on the ballot -.-

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (79EF9)

68 I know a poquito espaniol. I can el livo down in South or Central America. Problem is that the place is chock-a-block full of South and Central Americans. We think Chicago is bad.......

Posted by: Truck Monkey at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (jucos)

69 oops, sock off

Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (YdQQY)

70 Here, have this tequila while you wait.

Posted by: eleven at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (KXm42)

71 excellent post John E. I like pictures and bright colors

Posted by: L is an elle at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (0PiQ4)

72 My point being I lolt.

And you guys totally missed out on my cranberry sauce recipe.

Posted by: eleven at November 21, 2012 03:29 PM (KXm42)

73 >>i'm pretty sure PA went for obama in a larger margin than did CO this year, but i can't rly be bothered to look it up for fear of being intractably disheartened

Votes are still being counted, but the margins are virtually identical right now.

Posted by: JohnE. at November 21, 2012 03:30 PM (nRTou)

74 Posted by: Robert LeRoy Parker at November 21, 2012 03:26 PM (YdQQY)

At least one person got the joke. I was gettin' a little worried.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at November 21, 2012 03:30 PM (4+LTj)

75
fucking WEED on the ballot -.-
Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (79EF9)

Whats really ironic about that is voters would have had a better chance for Legal Pot by voting for the Federalist Romney over the Statist Obama. Their loss...

Posted by: cajun carrot of the carebear electorate at November 21, 2012 03:31 PM (UZQM8)

76 That map looks like caranberry sauce in various stages of digestion.



In mah belleh!

Posted by: eleven at November 21, 2012 03:31 PM (KXm42)

77 Here, have this tequila while you wait.
Posted by: BCochran1981 at November 21, 2012 03:13 PM (da5Wo)



Your nobility brings a tear to the eye.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 21, 2012 03:31 PM (VtjlW)

78 At least one person got the joke. I was gettin' a little worried.


Posted by: Meiczyslaw at November 21, 2012 03:30 PM (4+LTj)

Many know the movie but not his real name.

Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 03:31 PM (YdQQY)

79 >So why did those Bush voters in 2004 still stay home?

That's a question we better find the answer to.-------Someone needs to begin the audits on the voting machines. I have a really difficult time believing that many conservatives sat out this EXTREMELY important election .

Posted by: MidwesternSceptic at November 21, 2012 03:31 PM (MMTJh)

80 "Votes are still being counted, but the margins are virtually identical right now."

well there ya go!

to me, that says that pennsylvania really is in play, then -- at least if bush can win colorado twice by considerable margins!

now, we just have to figure out how to harness that Transcendent Narrative Power that ace wrote about a couple of days after the election. i really think he was onto something with that...wish he would keep pushing the idea.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:33 PM (79EF9)

81 It's not like WI or OH are bastions of diversity. They are WHITER than the south.' Now that'sa real story to analyze.
Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:26 PM (tVTLU)


------------------------------------------


Here in OK even predominately black counties voted for Romney. Go figure. But most everyone here in OK works for a living. Dear Leader got elected for all the free shit and there's really no convincing me otherwise.

Posted by: Soona at November 21, 2012 03:33 PM (78QmA)

82
It's not like WI or OH are bastions of diversity. They are WHITER than the south.'



I honestly believe the issue in Wisconsin was fraud. They bused (bussed?) in people from Illinois who registered the same day and voted.

All the 100% turnout with 100% of the vote going for Obama in urban precincts increasingly looks to be the reason Soetero won.

Unfortunately it doesn't appear that anybody is going to look into this beyond a few rumblings from the GOP base.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at November 21, 2012 03:35 PM (uhAkr)

83 "Whats really ironic about that is voters would have had a better chance for Legal Pot by voting for the Federalist Romney over the Statist Obama. Their loss..."

there was a norml article last year (two years ago?) essentially bemoaning the loss of the "good ol' days" under president bush when federal marijuana-offence raids were some fraction of what they've been under the obama/holder doj. i had a great time forwarding that one to all of my fairly pro-drug colleagues.

but...keep obama in president, you know?

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:36 PM (79EF9)

84 Every day finds a new way to remind me of the travesty of November 6. Now I see my own state mocking me with the slightly pink tinge.

When will this madness END???

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 03:38 PM (jm/9g)

85 Soona and Bevel:

I guess my question is, what the fuck do we do about this. Demographics my ass. hispanic immigration is now negative and has been for the last couple of years net.
Mexican women are not making babies above the replacement rate, so my guess is that the current mix of the country is what it will be for a good while.

So let's make this work. If the pubs can OWN a state that is roughly 40% black and 95% of that group votes for dems, then how in the holy fuck can we not carry white Wisconsin, I mean, wtf are we missing.

WI is really a redneck state anyway, so why in the fuck do they continually vote for commies?

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:39 PM (tVTLU)

86 I guess what I am saying is, if whites can start thinking of themselves as an "interest group" demorats will never win another fucking election ever.

How do we turn it around on them??

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:39 PM (tVTLU)

87 Total votes for Walker in recall: 1,335,585
Total votes for Romney in Wisconsin: 1,408,745.
Only 73k more.

Had Romney repeated the Walker effort, WI would have gone red. 73k increase from a gubernatorial to Presidential race? Pathetic.

Posted by: Annonymous Comment by someone who totally isn't CAC at November 21, 2012 03:40 PM (vS9+W)

88 When will this madness END???
Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 03:38 PM (jm/9g)


--------------------------------------------


Even Rush was taking the Beck stand yesterday when he said that when the fed HAS to start making cutbacks on the free shit that we'll start seeing the riots. People want their free shit.

So many poo poo the secession movement, but there'll come a time where states will have to split from DC just to save there own hard earned economies. You people in the blue and swing states are fucked.

Posted by: Soona at November 21, 2012 03:45 PM (78QmA)

89 "WI is really a redneck state anyway, so why in the fuck do they continually vote for commies?"

rednecks take food stamps, too. :\

"I guess what I am saying is, if whites can start thinking of themselves as an "interest group" demorats will never win another fucking election ever."

i think part of the problem is that a lot of low-income whites DO see themselves as an interest group...one that specifically benefits from the government handouts championed most vociferously by politicians that come with a little (d) after their names. to keep those extended ue benefits and succulent ebt money flowing freely, these whites go and check the d box at the polls...

we are quick to defend "white trash" as a pushback against the social acceptability of "reverse racism", but a lot of those folks are just as dependent on lifetime "safety-net" subscription as the non-white underclass. maybe a lot of those folks...rural, white voters or not...just don't see themselves as a part of the productive, middle-class segment that votes (r) to protect its own economic interests.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:45 PM (79EF9)

90 28

Especially when 40% of the State is black.

I think you meant incompetent

========

shouldn't make any difference, a Dem congressman said they're lazy, too.

Posted by: mallfly at November 21, 2012 03:45 PM (bJm7W)

91 I am digging the IgnoreUsersatAoS plugin.

Unhide all posts from (tVTLU)

Posted by: toby928© for TB at November 21, 2012 03:45 PM (QupBk)

92 i'm pretty sure PA went for obama in a larger margin than did CO this year, but i can't rly be bothered to look it up for fear of being intractably disheartened >.> fucking WEED on the ballot -.-
Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:28 PM (79EF9)

Nope. Obama carried Colorado by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania.
Makes sense too- PA went further right in 2010 than CO did, piss-poor candidates notwithstanding.

WI was not lost due to fraud. #s in Milwaukee comparable to 2008. Romney's margins in Waukesha, Ozaukee, Washington slipped, flipped back a lot of Bush 04 counties but not by Bush's margins, far narrower in the W/C regions where he needed rural WI voters who had turned out heavy for Walker.

WI was lost on ground game.

Posted by: Annonymous Comment by someone who totally isn't CAC at November 21, 2012 03:45 PM (vS9+W)

93 Sorry, O/T but Drudge has a link to the 2016 contenders. Bachmann, Jeb Bush and Santorum are on the list. I will never vote for any of them.

Perry is too, I love Perry. He can win, before the primaries, he never lost an election. He should have waited a month later to announce because of his back surgery and raging wildfires.
Christie is too, I wouldn't vote for that fat traitor either.

Posted by: CarolT at November 21, 2012 03:46 PM (z4WKX)

94 Jimi ray,

That is true enough, but there are a shit ton of poor white people in the South.

And yet they all vote republican. I'm beginning to think that the biggest enemy to uniting the white vote is the unions.

Thoughts on this??

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:47 PM (tVTLU)

95 This is like a post-mortem, post-mortem on a exhumed body.

Let it alone because it smells bad, really bad.

Posted by: mpfs at November 21, 2012 03:47 PM (iYbLN)

96 WI is really a redneck state anyway, so why in the fuck do they continually vote for commies?
Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:39 PM (tVTLU)


-----------------------------------------------


Two words: Unions. Start petitioning Walker and the legislature to start advocating "right to work". The unions are going to kill whatever progress WI has made these last few years.

Posted by: Soona at November 21, 2012 03:49 PM (78QmA)

97 well I don't know about Wisconsin but I know Pennsy was lost due to fraud.

It was rampant and just unbelievably brazen this cycle.

Maybe because they know it's their last hope here? Because our Voter ID law is *not* dead - it was just put on hold. It will continue as high as it needs to go and be upheld.

That said, the law won't stop the vote-factories that are North, Southwest and West Philadelphia.

And I know you guys don't believe me, but there are not enough residents - not NEAR enough residents - in those "rotten boroughs" to create the amount of D votes that are reported. So the rolls are major fabrications, the votes are brought in in boxes, and the people who actually show up to vote for their bennies are just, you know, BONUS!

And Voter ID is not going to stop this. Our R party is too weak to do much of anything about anything so there you go. Forget. Pennsy.

Posted by: BlackOrchid-StillMissingDagny at November 21, 2012 03:50 PM (J6kXj)

98 Soona:

That is my conclusion as well. Fucking unions. They turn a shit ton of white people into zombie voting demorats.

How to stop this....

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:51 PM (tVTLU)

99 speaking of incompetent and lazy:

http://tinyurl.com/byru57c

Posted by: mallfly at November 21, 2012 03:51 PM (bJm7W)

100 Black Orchid,
But Penn does not have early voting. So can't a R poll watcher just sit there when people check in, have a fucking list of eligible registered voters in the precinct, and then mark someone's name through once they check in.
So, add the people who showed up on election day, and the absentee ballots, together, and that should give you the turnout, completely true and verified.

I MEAN, HOW IN THE FUCK IS THIS SO HARD?????

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:53 PM (tVTLU)

101 How to stop this....
Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 03:51 PM (tVTLU)


------------------------------------


We can't. The damage is done. Only a national economic meltdown will bring these people to their knees.

Posted by: Soona at November 21, 2012 03:54 PM (78QmA)

102 "And yet they all vote republican. I'm beginning to think that the biggest enemy to uniting the white vote is the unions."

yeah, i think you guys are spot on with the unions. it's a different culture up there, and i think union affiliation has a lot to do with it. throw in a little government cheese, and it seems like the party best representing their "interests" would be the dems...

social issues are a big uniting factor in the south, but somehow it seems that they are less important, or at least less electorally unifying up north, to the extent that voters seem to change their social preferences to fit in line with their preferred party's platform ideology.

it was a cold shot seeing the rassmussen poll showing a huge pro-choice shift in american attitudes on abortion...

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:55 PM (79EF9)

103 So can't a R poll watcher just sit there when people check in

Well, that would work except we might need Guardian Angels and/or ex-Marines to be our R poll watchers.

sigh. the rotten boroughs all tossed the R poll watchers, remember?

Maybe next election.

Posted by: BlackOrchid-StillMissingDagny at November 21, 2012 03:56 PM (J6kXj)

104 Posted by: BlackOrchid-StillMissingDagny at November 21, 2012 03:50 PM (J6kXj)


I thought the courts had already approved the PA voter ID law for the next election???

Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 03:57 PM (YdQQY)

105 "So can't a R poll watcher just sit there when people check in, have a fucking list of eligible registered voters in the precinct, and then mark someone's name through once they check in."

at some pn polling places whence r poll watchers were forcibly removed, obama won 95% of the vote.

exactly 95% of the vote...to the single digit.

in those cases, it's fraud plain and simple...but i really disagree that those events were prevalent enough to have thrown the whole state to obama.

if wi wasn't winnable on ground game, pn sure as hell wasn't turning red.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 21, 2012 03:57 PM (79EF9)

106 Thoughts on this??

___
It's not necessarily just union mentality. There have been comments on this blog about how blue collar republicans couldn't relate to a white collar republican like Romney who reminded him of his boss. And of course all those who sat it out due to personal vendetta against Romney, like the guy who wrote: "enjoy not being president, asshole!" We are not singular in purpose. It appears we are more susceptible to our own personal prejudices than the opponent.

This is why Nanny Pelousy came out and crowed about UNITY after the election (when she said we don't have the gavel, we have unity). The donks' disparate interest groups came together as one to defeat a saner and more stable America.

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 03:59 PM (jm/9g)

107 Do you have a red/blue map at the county level? The level of towns and cities? How about individual houses?

Posted by: Some Malignant Leftoid Weirdo at November 21, 2012 04:05 PM (w41GQ)

108 But that's why I think the blue collar mentality misses some of the mark. Or the free shit army.

The south has some of the poorest whites in the country, and yet they are rock solid repub territory. And highest black populations.
WI is redneck as they come. I mean are they sipping tea and reading the NY fucking times up in the deer stand????

How in the fuck do we keep losing such a white state?

Posted by: Prescient11 at November 21, 2012 04:07 PM (tVTLU)

109 WI is really a redneck state anyway, so why in the fuck do they continually vote for commies?

That's not historically true. Wisconsin has always been a very progressive state.

But the disconnect between the Scott Walker recall and the election is odd.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at November 21, 2012 04:09 PM (uhAkr)

110 oh, off topic but gateway pundit linked to this:

http://tinyurl.com/6pt9ms

Posted by: mallfly at November 21, 2012 04:13 PM (bJm7W)

111 Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 03:57 PM (YdQQY)
__
Yes but here is the fly in the ointment: our voters put in a donk AG, whose first order of business is to investigate Gov. Corbett's handling of the Sandusky investigation when he was AG. There was a big outcry about Corbett having slow-walked the Penn State investigation in order to protect himself politically , for the upcoming Governor election. (Prior to the scandal, Penn State held iconic status here).

Which of course has no bearing in truth, because the two Philly D.A's who investigated the Catholic priest scandals took much longer than Corbett to deliver their indictments. But they were donks, therefore not subject to a political witch hunt.

The bottom line is: Corbett may not make it to a second term. The PA Voter ID law will depend on having enough GOP votes in the legislature to override a *possible* future donk Governor, God help us all.

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 04:16 PM (jm/9g)

112 The bottom line is: Corbett may not make it to a
second term. The PA Voter ID law will depend on having enough GOP votes
in the legislature to override a *possible* future donk Governor, God
help us all.

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 04:16 PM (jm/9g)

I thought it had already been passed but the courts held it up until after this election. Maybe I am thinking of a different State.

Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 04:18 PM (YdQQY)

113 Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2012 04:18 PM (YdQQY)
__
Yes implementation was postponed until next election. This time around we had the option of showing our ID, it was not a requirement to vote. But who knows what will happen with the new donk regime (cabinet positions)in Harrisburg. They will do everything in their power to overturn or invalidate the law. As it stands, it has been considerably defanged in order to make it through the courts.

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 04:25 PM (jm/9g)

114 re: 'we are quick to defend "white trash" as a pushback against the social acceptability of "reverse racism", but a lot of those folks are just as dependent on lifetime "safety-net" subscription as the non-white underclass.'

Wisconsin is strongly split between college-town blue and country-hick red, with nary a negro in sight, so it's not the best place to apply that sort of thought to. But let's!

Maximum per-person food-stamp receipt is just over $2000/year. The average salary for a public college professor is about $100,000/year. So it takes, what, fifty? a hundred? welfare-lifer rednecks to reach the dependency level of *one* of WI College Town X's exemplary "productive" citizens.

Which vote do you want? *One* of the hyper-dependent class that considers itself "productive" because it can afford a Prius -- or a hundred votes from broke dudes who demand *almost* nothing? Certainly nothing *in comparison.* They don't demand taxpayer-funded Priuses. Not even enough to charge one up all year. But they *may* demand that nobody else get one. How uncouth!

So, well, Romney, with his incredibly weird and offputting only-the-"productive"-are-Real-Americans campaign (that Ryan wisely wanted to change, because he's familiar with how the Wisconsin vote actually splits), got his "productive"-voter vote.

From Ann Althouse. Good get. That's a big vote! It's one, but it's huge. Right?

Yeah, he lost. By trading a hundred rednecks for every Althouse.

Posted by: oblig. at November 21, 2012 04:27 PM (cePv8)

115 please forgive those of us from PA. we r really depressed.

I started this election cycle saying "no. it won't happen. too many gov't clients (of all types) in PA. too many retirees. huge recent influx of illegal immigrants."

I kept saying it and saying it but then I let my hopes go up. I maybe never thought RR would win but I thought it would be closer, and I thought tom smith might win. I was CRUSHED by this election.

It's worse than I thought here. And the saddest part is, how we feel here in PA? Slaves to Philly? Welcome to that, rest of the USA.

blargh ok that's all I got. I'm done with political commentary

Posted by: BlackOrchid-StillMissingDagny at November 21, 2012 04:36 PM (J6kXj)

116 Posted by: BlackOrchid-StillMissingDagny at November 21, 2012 04:36 PM (J6kXj)
__
at least there's some hope - Bucks, Delco, Chesco all sent the GOP congressmen back to DC.

The Philly burbs are bipolar. Delco - where I am - farked Romney over bigtime, it was a 22 point beatdown. Pat Meehan, our congressman, was elected by a comfortable 17 point margin.

I had hopes too after the Bucks County R/R rally where people showed up in the raw cold and waited for hours. Preezy just squeaked by in Bucks and R/R just barely made it in Chesco, which really was a shocker because the head of the Chesco GOP had predicted an 8 point win.

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 04:53 PM (jm/9g)

117 John E. do you have a link to Dana Loesch podcast?

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 04:57 PM (jm/9g)

118 Nice map and a good start to understanding what needs to be done but what missing the additional colors that show underperformance/Overperformance and Rommy lost and Underperformance/Overperformance and Rommey Won. There will be the nuggets of the next victory.

Posted by: NickNack60 at November 21, 2012 05:00 PM (OdKC5)

119 >>>John E. do you have a link to Dana Loesch podcast?

Yup! Go here:

http://www.971talk.com/dana/

And in the scroll section look for "11-16-12 John Ekdahl". Lemme know what you think.

Posted by: JohnE. at November 21, 2012 05:15 PM (nRTou)

120 County by County Map titled
"Hey State Controlled Media - The Country is actually Trending Republican"

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2012/11/hey-state-controlled-media-country-is.html

Posted by: Steve at November 21, 2012 05:18 PM (8gUKR)

121 I think six years if red on red combat when it came to Romney may have had a bigger impact on the right turning out than anyone realizes. The increased margins especially in those dark red states were indies splitting their tickets. You can't really use Akin to explain Heitkamp. Like it or not a bug ole chunk of right leaners bought into the whole conservative/libertarian dumbass notion that no difference between Romney/Obama existed and decided to stay home. That's an inherent flaw in those on the liberty side of things. Letting the perfect be the enemy of the good. It's much easier to internalize erick Ericsson bagging on Romney than Chris Matthews bagging on Romney. After all our guy says it its more believable. Not even Paul Ryan made us circle the wagons and we are gonna pay for the rest of our and our children's lives.

Posted by: Exasperate Expat at November 21, 2012 05:28 PM (gkfSV)

122 I live in Mississippi. Alot of it was everyone knew the state was going Romney so there was a stay at home segment. There were no contested Senate or Congressional races whereas in 08 you had a hot Senate race. There was almost no money spent in Ms by the Romney campaign.

Posted by: Kingfish at November 21, 2012 05:29 PM (srgm/)

123 Funny how during the election there was ENDLESS bitching and whining about how "skewed" all the polls were in favor of Obama. Turns out they undershot his margin of victory by a substantial amount. So they were, the whole time, actually tilted drastically in Romney's favor.

Ain't irony great?

Posted by: He's a mooslin!!!1!! at November 21, 2012 05:35 PM (yMzzC)

124 Posted by: JohnE. at November 21, 2012 05:15 PM (nRTou)
___
Thank you. I am logging off now, but will listen on Friday.
---
Posted by: Exasperate Expat at November 21, 2012 05:28 PM (gkfSV)

Unfortunately, and sadly - yes. A couple of our state level elections went to the donk by a Libertarian voter margin.

Posted by: kallisto at November 21, 2012 05:50 PM (jm/9g)

Posted by: RegularJoe at November 21, 2012 06:14 PM (YCBks)

126 Maybe someone already suggested this, but what we really need to see a trend are 2004 -> 2006, 2006->2008, 2008->2010, and 2010->2012.

The 2010 data seems most pertinent of all; did we peak in 2010 and we're now back on the decline, but not as far down as we were in 2008? Or have we grown steadily between 2008 2012?

Posted by: RegularJoe at November 21, 2012 06:17 PM (YCBks)

127 So if NE and ME can split their electoral votes by congressional district with 2 others going to the state's popular vote winner why don't the other states follow suit? If this were to be the case before the election Romney would have won the majority of EVs in PA, OH, FL, VA, WI, MI and would have been President. Go for it.

Posted by: Hey_Ange at November 21, 2012 06:21 PM (jkT2R)

128 Nice - but not quite right.

I'm looking at district and country data (from the guardian yet!) and think I'm seeing quite different. Mr. Obama won fewer counties (only about 1/3rd of them this time) than last time, but won those by larger margins.

The counties he won almost all have two kinds of precinct level results: obama by 75% or greater margins (often 95%+), and Romney by a few points,. Boil it all away and what I think we're seeing is a Obama victory coming from massive voting in fewer than 15% of the nation's precincts - even in California and NY.

When/if I can get better data...I'll know for sure. If you have better data - I'd like to see it: please. Email me.

Posted by: Paul Murphy at November 21, 2012 06:25 PM (VPX/N)

129 126
My opinion is both 08 and 12 were anomalies. Any election with Obama at the top of the ticket was bound to be an outlier. If 14 is more like 10 then we have a better sample as to the post bush right left electorate.

127
The only super pac I would ever contribute to would be one whose sole purpose is to make California's EV be proportioned by congressional district. The only way to make it relevant again. Seeing how Texas districts voted I'd gladly trade having both Texas and California portioned by district.

Posted by: Exasperate Expat at November 21, 2012 06:27 PM (gkfSV)

130 129, yes my thoughts exactly. Don't discard the EV system, tweek it to reflect reality.

Posted by: Hey_Ange at November 21, 2012 06:32 PM (jkT2R)

131
It wasn't evangelicals who skipped voting,it was blue collar types southerners who weren't impressed with a north-east rich guy.

Socons keeps getting blamed for our losses, when it may be that the fiscal message is not selling well enough.

Posted by: JustLikeDavidHasselhoff at November 21, 2012 06:40 PM (3PHCO)

132 People forget that a significant chunk of Dems voted for Walker in the recall election not because they supported him but because they thought the recall was unfair.

Can anybody list and compare Romney's vote total in WI to Walker's vote total in 2010? That might be a more accurate depiction of Romney's ground game.

Posted by: The Q at November 21, 2012 06:47 PM (lB4ch)

133 Thank you! Thank you! Thank you! This dovetails exactly with my post-election analysis that we as a country are, in fact, NOT trending precipitously leftward as many on both the left and right said.

I encourage people to visit and read these posts.

http://t.co/UXuKg0mn
http://t.co/cH9W6XLz

Posted by: EricTheRed at November 21, 2012 07:21 PM (AUAgu)

134 Both WA state and Oregon have significant Repub voters, especially on the east side of those states. They just keep getting overwhelmed by the Dems in the cities and the college towns. There's a tradition of moderate Repub governors in OR (think Tom McCall) and I suppose it might be possible to win the state with the right candidate. No chance for WA state since the Dems would just cheat, like they did to elect Gregoire governor the first time.

I know campaign money is tight, but why can't the Repubs run a campaign where they do ads in every single state? I really don't think the overkill of constant ads in the swing states is doing much good.

Posted by: notsothoreau at November 21, 2012 07:52 PM (5HBd1)

135 From what I've read Team Romney was projecting their own turnout somewhere between 04 and 08. And they were expecting Obama turnout less than 08. They got part of that right - Obama numbers were lower than 08. And based on a comment above on precinct/county level data it sounds like Obama basically blew his numbers up in a very small number of areas.

So it comes back to inability to boost votes beyond McCain levels. Given the anti-Obama mood, on Nov 5 hardly anyone on the R side would project that getting to 08 levels would be tough (and it has been - only now many weeks into counting are Romney & McCain close). The expectation was a higher R turnout and this explains why the Gallup, Rassmussen and Romney internal models were wrong. If we had hit turnout between 04 and 08 we would have won.

So as someone asked where are the Bush 04 voters?

Its not Latino voters even though Bush got 40% share but the total votes & Latino share of vote was lower. My back of the envelope calculation is like 100K more Latino votes for Bush vs. Mitt.

So it could be the analysis by RCP helps explain not only the 12 to 08 delta but also the 08 to 04 delta - http://bit.ly/Qr15ze

My guess is that Mitt never won over a subset of potential R voters that he never won during the primaries either (if someone could map primary states lost by Romney to the second map above it would be useful). Those most strongly opposed to him in the primaries never flipped to him. In various public polls these voters were likely identifying as I or D and this skewed the "samples" into +D. Come Nov 6 they probably did not vote. I also read on an Obama victory analysis blog that the post debate 1 swing (based on their data) was not a softening of Obama's vote but rather an add to the Romney vote. What this suggests is that Obama maintained his numbers during the time Mitt polling looked good. But somewhere after the first debate and Nov 6 they were lost again. So it was our own side that was moving in and out of the Romney poll numbers. Maybe we got fooled by the massive crowds and forgot that there is still an important segment not sold yet. Maybe some of the primary candidates could have pulled some of those voters out (a Ron Paul endorsement for example?). Maybe a better turnout operation on Nov 6. Whatever it is, it sure seems like we lost it as much they won it (with their killer data based micro-targeting).

Posted by: amit (@CArepub) at November 21, 2012 08:59 PM (lw4p5)

136 These mapa are quitre uninformative. Read Edward Tufte,s book : The Visual Display of quantiative Information. It will make you glad you are a member of the same species as he.

Posted by: meredith luhrs at November 22, 2012 08:55 AM (qDiEy)






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