Ohio's Early Vote: Nate Silver Gulps

This is a little complicated, but the polls have been claiming around 35% of the Ohio population has voted early. Rasumssen even pegged it at 40%.

Conservatives have been saying for a while that the polls were skewed because too many people were saying they'd voted early. Either they were a self-selecting unrepresentative sample -- perhaps so jazzed about voting they were much more eager to talk to a pollster for a half an hour or 40 minutes -- or a lot of people were just claiming "I already voted," even though they didn't.

Assuming Ohio will produce a 2004 level of turnout, early voting in fact accounts for only 32% of all votes which will be cast. Assuming a 2008 level, early voting accounts for only 31% of all votes which will ultimately be cast.

And note that if voting exceeds 2008, somehow, that pushes the fraction of early voters down even further.

Now, those who voted early skew towards Obama while those who have yet to vote skew to Romney. So the relative proportion of these two cohorts affects the final vote count.

The next important piece of data is what the polls consistently report: Obama leads by huge margins among early voters but trails Romney among those who say they will vote on election day. This inverse in voting segments is why the proportion of early votes in the total votes — and that virtually every poll overestimated this proportion — is so tantamount. In most polls (which usually only have Obama leading by a small margin, although some give him a more comfortable ~+5%), lowering the percentage of early votes in the polling sample means lowering Obama’s lead drastically. And when Obama’s lead is only one or two percentage points, that can mean handing the election to Mitt Romney.

It also makes the polls suspect.

But Nate Silver shrugged it off:

In a discussion on Twitter, Silver and Wasserman focused largely on the surprise changes in turnout in many of Ohio’s counties. While total early voting in Ohio only increased by 2.44% from 2008, early voting in counties that voted heavily for Kerry/Obama declined 4.1% while counties that voted heavily Bush/McCain increased their early voting by a shocking 14.39%. Wisserman, while still predicting an Obama victory, suggested that trend meant a tighter race in Ohio than expected and suggested it might undercut Nate Silver’s famous forecast. Nate Silver’s response: “I’ll stick with the 538 forecast in OH. I disagree that the early voting data there provides much reason to doubt the polls.”

While some people are turning to counting the votes, Nate Silver is still just looking at the polls.

I wonder if he'll keep that up through, say, Thanksgiving.

More from Bryan Preston.


Posted by: Ace at 03:37 PM



Comments

1 First?

Posted by: Little Lebowski Urban Acheiver at November 06, 2012 03:39 PM (8LCi0)

2 Yes!

And Silver is a dipshit. Just like every one else, he isn't accounting for huge oversampling of Democrats and relies upon the same voter turnout model as in '08.

Posted by: Little Lebowski Urban Acheiver at November 06, 2012 03:39 PM (8LCi0)

3 *blood gushes from hole in head*

Posted by: Nate Silver tomorrow at November 06, 2012 03:40 PM (a0nis)

4 Polls don't lie.

Posted by: President Dewey at November 06, 2012 03:40 PM (SzAZ7)

5 Blasphemy! How dare you doubt Nate Silver!

Posted by: Witchfinder at November 06, 2012 03:40 PM (pLTLS)

6 Nate Silver is a fool because he is treating this the way he does baseball - that the stats are cut and dried.

Posted by: dantealiegri at November 06, 2012 03:40 PM (HXWlL)

7 AHHHHHHHHHHHH!!! I CAN'T HOLD IT ANY LONGER, IT FEELS TOO GOOD!! OOOHHHHHAHHHHHHH!!!

Posted by: Pre-Mature Mitt Victory Celebration at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (F6KtL)

8
What I'm seeing is a groundswell.
Can I pop the champagne yet?

Posted by: Justamom's having an election day bash at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (erYRT)

9 "Just like every one else, he isn't accounting for huge oversampling of
Democrats and relies upon the same voter turnout model as in '08."

You have to be a window-licking sub-retard to seriously think that '08 will be replayed. Like, 'you should be on lithium.' So why do so many do it? It amazes me.

Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (eEeH7)

10 I believe in 2010 Nate Silver gave the GOP a 20% chance of taking more than 60 seats.

He is a moonbat hack promoted by the moonbat media.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (hlUJY)

11 He is an idiot.

Posted by: Vic at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (YdQQY)

12 @6

Yes, his history as a sabermetrician plays a huge part of why I distrust him. Just like in baseball, he isn't taking a number of things into account that don't show up in the raw numbers.

Posted by: Little Lebowski Urban Acheiver at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (8LCi0)

13 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at November 06, 2012 03:42 PM (9XBK2)

14 Live by the 9%, die by the 9% response rate.

It's always been moronic. And the Gallup estimate in swing states was three percent response.

It doesn't sound like a huge fucking deal "Hey, just multiply!"

But it takes the entire endeavor from 'almost real science' all the way to 'Dude, I can do better with chicken entrails.'

Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 03:42 PM (MzQOZ)

15 Stacks of people to greet--

Romney in Pittsburgh.

http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/

Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 03:42 PM (r2PLg)

16 If you're in Ohio, or any other swing state, get your ass to the polls if you haven't voted, unless you're a democrat, democrats can vote tomorrow.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 06, 2012 03:42 PM (b+jI9)

17 The media is outright changing the poll numbers to get more Democrats in the sampling. The liberals are going to be shocked when reality blows their heads off.

Posted by: NWConservative at November 06, 2012 03:42 PM (Km8Wu)

18 Nate Silver is one brilliant marketing genius.

And a math illiterate.

Posted by: DarrenODaly at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (wDAwT)

19

Hate Slivers.

Posted by: He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (LpQbZ)

20 First chink in the armor, Ted...

Posted by: Double Wide at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (J8jzK)

21 Very preliminary projection from Romney HQ: We win 300-238

This is from the Smart Guys Upstairs

Relax we have this.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (vWZrj)

22 From previous thread: "We agree to let them secede, let them have their half...
Then, after a few years have gone by
and Libtardistan is on the brink of collapse, we invade it and seize
their half again, restoring the country once again as a contiguous
whole."

This is how you do it. It wouldn't even be hard. It's not like the granola-crunching hippie overlords and their criminal underclass will maintain a proper military.

Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (eEeH7)

23
Calling all rocket scientists:

A woman wearing an MIT t-shirt was barred from voting Florida, according
to a local report. MIT stands for theMassachusetts Institute of
Technology, not Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Posted by: A B at November 06, 2012 03:44 PM (PHb2k)

24 it's all about turnout

Posted by: Guy who says it's all about turnout at November 06, 2012 03:44 PM (60GaT)

25 Vic, if you're still here, can I ask how you voted on the SC Constitution amendment re: governor and lt. governor?

Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 03:44 PM (lTVJy)

26 Cold and rainy here, with weather deteriorating as we get near the end of the workday. Chicago reporting traffic shutdowns as Presidential and Vice Presidential motorcades make their way into the city.

Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 03:44 PM (P6QsQ)

27
Does anybody think that we'll actually know who won this tonight? I think it will be weeks. Too many lawyers on both sides ready to get into the game. Even if it is a blowout, no way SCOAMF concedes. No class piece of shit that he is.

Posted by: clonefan at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (83v+9)

28 Relax we have this.

I can't relax.

Because I'm a Boinger.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNKCPk1tl9Q

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (w+lzM)

29 Silver has no choice now. it's his ship and he's the captain.

Posted by: DCPensFan at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (ma/2m)

30 Truman, is that for real?

Posted by: rockmom at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (NYnoe)

31 This post is tantamount to being very over my head.

Posted by: Cricket at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (DrC22)

32
I've been convinced the whole while that the SCOAMTT numbers are being inflated to account for hijinks, better known as fraud.

When I voted today (paper ballot-no line)
I had that whole stall rocking as I blacked in my choices.

Posted by: Justamom's having an election day bash at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (erYRT)

33 Couldn't the increase in absentee ballots in McCain districts be from 0bama voters that 0fA has identified and turned out? What if they had maxed out their early turnout in blue districts, and then went in to red counties and targeted Democrats. Is that even possible? I know, I'm being Eeyore. I just want to beat SCOAMF so bad.

Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (ljiM/)

34 >> Either they were a self-selecting unrepresentative sample -- perhaps so
jazzed about voting they were much more eager to talk to a pollster for
a half an hour or 40 minutes -- or a lot of people were just claiming
"I already voted," even though they didn't.<<

Saying that you had already voted shoots you right through all the likely voter screens on most if not all of the big polling outfits. Which means if you lie about it, that screws up their sample and results big time, and likely explains the nonsensical nature of most of the polling this cycle.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (qEkGZ)

35 9 "Just like every one else, he isn't accounting for huge oversampling of
Democrats and relies upon the same voter turnout model as in '08."

You have to be a window-licking sub-retard to seriously think that '08 will be replayed. Like, 'you should be on lithium.' So why do so many do it? It amazes me.

---

Holla.

Posted by: Skags at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (ahsqI)

36
Here is a list of poll closing times across the nation on Nov. 6, 2012. All times are ET.

7:00 pm: Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia

7:30 pm: North Carolina, Ohio, West Virginia

8:00 pm: Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, DC, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee.

8:30 pm: Arkansas

9:00 pm: Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Louisiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas, Wisconsin, Wyoming

10:00 pm: Iowa, Montana, Nevada, Utah

11:00 pm: California, Hawaii, Idaho, Oregon, Washington

1:00 am: Alaska


There should be lots to talk about by nine and pretty well wrapped up by midnight.

Posted by: Ed Anger at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (tOkJB)

37 Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (vWZrj)
___

aaaghghgahahghh

Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (jm/9g)

38 I like polls. And poles, but I digress.

Posted by: Nate at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (/YJYi)

39
What about Pennsylvania?

Will those NY votes that are being allowed there be added to the total for PA?
Does anyone know?

Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (ICEh3)

40 "'tis just a flesh wound."

Posted by: TLGM at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (appbn)

41 30 Truman, is that for real?
Posted by: rockmom at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (NYnoe)



As real as a fucking heart attack. All swing states trending red and we're ahead in every state but Virginia.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (vWZrj)

42 This is how you do it. It wouldn't even be hard. It's not like the
granola-crunching hippie overlords and their criminal underclass will
maintain a proper military.


That was me.

Yes, granola hippies are malnourished and therefore easy to pick up and throw. It would be a cakewalk. They'd already have banned guns and weapons. The best they could do is to somehow make the tracks on our tanks slip by letting themselves get pulped underneath one when they tried to form a human chain.

Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (GQ8sn)

43 Stacks of people to greet--



Romney in Pittsburgh.



http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/

--------

That's a whole lotta raaaacisssts.

Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (lTVJy)

44 I've never voted early before, but did this time. Personnel reasons, was in PHX helping out my folks. The potential existed that I might have to stay longer. Wife also voted early. Today she is on a jet, business trip. So we did it to cover ourselves. Might continue to do it in the future...if we have a future...SMOD 12-21-2012???

Posted by: Paladin at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (hxLER)

45 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a malignant traitor.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (nUH8H)

46 Ohio's Early Vote: Nate Silver Gulps






Rumor is he swallows

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (1Jaio)

47 Anyone who tells you the dead don't vote, well it's bullshit.

>>"He was dead," Houston said. "He had no heartbeat and he wasn't breathing. I started CPR, and after a few minutes, he revived and started breathing again. He knew his name and his wife's name."

>>What happened next astounded Houston and the victim's wife.

>>"The first question he asked was 'Did I vote?'"

http://tinyurl.com/c4l7qzl

Got to be a Romney supporters. Nobody is that dedicated to voting for Obama.



Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (TMB3S)

48 The only poll that matters is the one I want to bury in lib skulls (metaphorically).

Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (MnKNu)

49 Trying to decipher Nate's gobbldygoop is like trying to talk to a hard-core AGW fascist. They hear or see nothing but themselves.

Posted by: Soona at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (4bdZW)

50 20 First chink in the armor, Ted...
Posted by: Double Wide at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (J8jzK)

That's racist!

Posted by: Cricket at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (DrC22)

51 No, Matt. The early voters are denoted as repubs, dems and indies.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (PHb2k)

52 You have to be a window-licking sub-retard to
seriously think that '08 will be replayed. Like, 'you should be on
lithium.' So why do so many do it? It amazes me.

Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (eEeH7)

Some of them have models with a *heavier" Dem sample than in 2008. Those are not polls; they're propaganda.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (qEkGZ)

53 Here's why Silver is not just dumb, but willfully ignorant:

As I understand it, he did a lot with advanced statistics in baseball. So it should be clear to him that you can't just look at the top-line. Baseball guys, for instance, know that the "RBI" stat is practically worthless for determining the skill of a player. Why? Because it relies on far too many outside factors, namely being the skill of their teammates, their ability to get on base. A player who's a better raw hitter may have less RBI's because he plays on a team of scrubs than the worse player who's always got guys on first and third when he steps up to the plate.

Silver completely fails to translate this knowledge over to his poll analysis. He simply looks at the top line and averages them out. It's completely anti-statistics.

In short: whoop-dee-doo you simple-minded jackass.

Posted by: Nventor at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (+yL85)

54 Truman

We want fucking 400...tell them to get off their ass

Posted by: H Badger at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (n/0Nw)

55 Black Panthers back doing their voter intimidation thing..... 71 Republican poll watchers prevented from entering polling places... Police do nothing... Mayor does not condemn... Huge Obama mural in polling place..

Philadelphia is now officially a Banana Republic.

Posted by: Ombudsman at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (HqXYa)

56 #15 tasker: That is an amazing picture! Am repeating the link so people will go look at it!

Stacks of people to greet--



Romney in Pittsburgh.



http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/




Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (GoIUi)

57 Nate Silver gulps cock like he's training for the Nathan's hotdog eating contest.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (0cwsf)

58 Travis County (Austin, TX) - Early voting down from 49% of registered voters to 37.5% (-11.5%) - a loss of 63k votes (600k registered voters)... the libs ain't showing up... Kerry's 04 total is Barry's ceiling today

Posted by: Sheriff Joe at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (MAhUT)

59 wheatie,i would guess not. i say that because thier registered in ny. so thier votes would count for NY not PA.

Posted by: Paul at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (xwVUV)

60 btw moron Fluffy is working Virginia today. Blame him.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (vWZrj)

61 http://tinyurl.com/apwafls

Mason-Dixon reports that a newspaper in Nevada demanded that they include more democrats in their poll because a Republican mayor was ahead by ten points.

They are rigging the polls. Get out and vote if you haven't already! The bigger the margin the bigger the mandate (and crying by liberals).

Posted by: NWConservative at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (Km8Wu)

62 had that whole stall rocking as I blacked in my choices.

I almost broke the pencil.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (MnKNu)

63 This is from Geraghty yesterday about the lack of quality in polling:

A Quick Trip Down Memory Lane of Recent Polling

So a lot of people who don’t read me that closely are going to look at what follows and interpret it as “Jim’s saying the polls are always wrong.” That’s not what I’m saying, but I’m prefacing all of this with that prediction, because we’ve all seen that when people don’t like what you have to say, they attempt to cut off discussion by calling you insane or silly. Sneering “truther” in response to a disagreement from the conventional wisdom is almost as worn out as “racist.”

At the heart of the entire point of polling political races is the assuption that the people in the sample are a realistic representation of the folks who will vote in the election. Now that the response rate for polls has plummeted all the way down to 9 percent — that is, out of every 100 calls the pollster makes, only 9 are completed — getting a sample that looks like the likely electorate in Election Day is tougher and tougher.

So pollsters adjust, they make extra calls and make sure they have a sample that is properly balanced by gender, by race, by age, and often times, by geography of the nation or state that they’re polling. They do this based on this fairly simple conclusion — the makeup of the kind of people who will answer questions from a pollster for ten or twenty minutes may not accurately represent the makeup of who will vote in the election. So if one gender, racial group, age group, or region may be more likely to take the time to answer questions than another, why not one party?

Folks like me have been wondering for a while whether folks on the right — with distrust and suspicion of the media fueled by decades’ worth of stories and examples and anecdotes of what they deem media bias — are more likely to hang up on the pollster, and/or urge him to do anatomically difficult things to himself, than folks on the left. Think of this as an American version of the “Shy Tory” factor.

Look back at history:

In 2002, Democrats argued, and a media who largely agreed, that President George W. Bush had been “selected, not elected” in 2004, and contended that despite the events of 9/11, and the talk of war with Iraq, Democrats would thrive in the midterm elections.

I found this article describing the difference between the late polls and the final results on a lefty site charging massive voter fraud in favor of the Republicans. He summarizes:

14 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Republican Party (by between 3 and 16 points);

- 2 races showed a post opinion poll swing towards the Democratic Party (by 2 and 4 points);

- In three races the pollsters were close to correct;

- The largest post opinion poll vote swings occurred in Minnesota and Georgia where pollsters got the final result wrong

2004: Bob Shrum was calling John Kerry “Mr. President” after seeing the first round of exit polls. Think about it — this wasn’t just guessing who would actually vote, everybody coming out of a polling place was a definite voter. Even then, it got thrown off because Kerry voters were much more willing to talk to the exit pollsters than Bush voters:

Interviewing for the 2004 exit polls was the most inaccurate of any in the past five presidential elections as procedural problems compounded by the refusal of large numbers of Republican voters to be surveyed led to inflated estimates of support for John F. Kerry, according to a report released yesterday by the research firms responsible for the flawed surveys.

The exit pollsters emphasized that the flaws did not produce a single incorrect projection of the winner in a state on election night. But "there were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry . . . and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush," said Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research and Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International.

One other point: The exit pollsters were disproportionately collegiate women. Raise your hand if you think some men might be willing to tell a cute college coed that they voted for Kerry. Yup, me too.

2006: The popular vote in the House of Representatives races came out to 52 percent for the Democrats, 44 percent for Republicans, an eight-point margin. Some institutions came close on the generic ballot question, USA Today/Gallup (seven points), ABC News/Washington Post (six points), and Pew (four points). But others overstated it dramatically: Fox News (13 points), CNN (20 points), Newsweek (16 points), Time (15 points), and CBS/New York Times (18 points).

2008: If you’re a pollster who tends to overstate the number of Democrats in your sample, this was your year — fatigue over President Bush and war, a Wall Street collapse and economic meltdown, a drastically underfunded Republican candidate who spent much of his career fighting his own party, the first African-American nominee of a major party . . . and yet, some pollsters still overshot it: Marist, CBS News, and NBC/Wall Street Journal had Obama winning by nine, and Reuters had Obama winning by eleven, as did Gallup.

2010: Polling wasn’t quite as bad this cycle; everyone seemed to know a GOP wave was coming, and by the time Election Day rolled around, the GOP lead on the generic ballot turned out to have been overstated in quite a few of the later samples. But what’s interesting is how the polls indicating a GOP tsunami didn’t impact the conventional wisdom within Washington. The GOP’s gain of 63 seats — a final majority of 242 seats — was well beyond the total predicted by Politico’s John Harris and Jim Vandehei (224), NPR’s Ken Rudin (219), Arianna Huffington (22, and CNN’s Candy Crowley (223). This is not to argue a crazy conspiracy among the Washington crowd, just to point out that this year, for some reason, the polls didn’t influence the Beltway expectations — why, it’s almost as if poll results showing good news for Democrats are taken more seriously than ones showing good news for Republicans.

Then of course, you have the individual pollsters who sometimes go . . . well, haywire. Here’s from my piece about Zogby, who became the liberals’ pollster of choice in 2002 and 2004:

In 2002, his final polls were pretty lousy. In Minnesota, Zogby predicted Democrat Walter Mondale over Republican Norm Coleman by 6 points; Coleman won by 3. In Colorado, Zogby picked Democrat Ted Strickland over GOP incumbent Wayne Allard by 5; Allard won by 5. In Georgia, Zogby picked Democrat Max Cleland over Republican Saxby Chambliss by 2; Chambliss won by 7. In Texas, Zogby’s final poll had Republican John Cornyn over Democrat Ron Kirk by 4 points; Cornyn won by 12. Zogby’s final poll in the Florida gubernatorial race had Jeb Bush winning by 15, but only three weeks earlier he had Bush winning by only 3. Bush won by 13 points.

Late afternoon on Election Day [2004] —awfully late for a final call—Zogby predicted that Kerry would win Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and New Mexico (0 for 4!) and get at least 311 votes in the Electoral College, while Bush was assured of only 213. (The remaining 14 electoral votes were too close to call.)

There’s no other way to say it: The Big Z’s final polls were garbage. His final poll had Colorado too close to call; Bush won by 7 points. He had Florida by a tenth of a percentage point for Kerry and “trending Kerry”; Bush won by 5 points. Zogby had Bush winning North Carolina by 3; the president won John Edwards’s home state by 13. Zogby had Bush leading Tennessee by 4; the president won by 14. Zogby called Virginia a “slight edge” for the GOP; Bush won by 8. In West Virginia, Zogby predicted a Bush win by 4; the president won by 13. And in the vital swing state of Wisconsin, Zogby had Kerry up by 6; the final margin was 1 point.

Zogby’s dramatically far-off results were, I would argue, fueled by a combination of hubristic overconfidence in his own ability to read the mood of the electorate and the desire to tell his biggest fans what they want to hear. I’ll let you conclude if you think that description might apply to any other pundit you see cited a lot these days — including myself.

Besides pollsters seeing what they want to see, we must recall the fairly recent example of Research 2000, which may not have actually conducted the surveys that it announced to the world. Here’s a good summary of that scandal:

It came after Daily Kos published a statistical analysis of Research 2000's polls that alleged a series of statistical anomalies among the results. That analysis led Moulitsas to conclude that the weekly poll Research 2000 had conducted and run on Daily Kos during 2009 and 2010 "was likely bunk."

Moulitsas added that Ali had "refused to offer any explanation" for the anomalies or turn over raw data as requested. Daily Kos lawyer Adam Bonin vowed to "file the appropriate discovery requests" in order to determine whether Ali had fabricated data.

In a rambling public response published last July, Ali characterized "every charge" made by the Daily Kos lawsuit as "pure lies, plain and simple." He promised that "the motives as to why Kos is doing it will be revealed in the legal process."

But by agreeing to a settlement, Ali leaves open the question of whether his data were in fact fabricated.

The same July statement also included a comment that raised eyebrows among pollsters (typos in original):

Yes we weight heavily and I will, using te margin of error adjust the top line and when adjusted under my discretion as both a pollster and social scientist, therefore all sub groups must be adjusted as well.

After sending that statement, Ali disappeared from public view. Attempts to contact his email account temporarily bounced, his Twitter account went silent and the Research 2000 website started redirecting to a Wikipedia entry on opinion polls. Ali started posting again to his Twitter account two weeks ago, although he has so far not mentioned either the lawsuit or his polling business.

Now, not every pollster is making up their results; probably none of the polls we read about today are made up of whole cloth. But this case suggests that the most paranoid scenario — a pollster not really collecting data, just pretending to and telling the client some combination of what they want to hear and what sounds realistic — can happen.

I mention all of this because I hear from a lot of readers — up through this past weekend, in fact —some variation of “EEK! X poll shows my candidate down!”

Well, your candidate may be down. But you should know better than to panic over a poll, and you should know that there’s nothing anyone could or should be telling you to make you stop being as active as you are in these final hours. You should be checking the samples, to see if the partisan breakdown makes sense to you. If the percentage of Democrats in the sample is higher than the percentage of Democrats in the 2008 exit polls, some skepticism is warranted.

That’s how you find CNN releasing a poll Sunday night that has it tied, 49 percent to 49 percent, despite Mitt Romney winning independents by 22 points, 59 percent to 37 percent. Why? “Among those likely voters, 41% described themselves as Democrats, 29% described themselves as Independents, and 30% described themselves as Republicans.”

If the electorate is D+11 Tuesday, Romney’s doomed. If Romney’s winning independents by 22, he’s winning in a landslide.

Posted by: Countrysquire at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (QB3JR)

64
There is a 100 % chance that Romney supporters will blow their load early.

Posted by: Tate Gold, Nate Silver's Cousin at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (F6KtL)

65 Posted by: Ed Anger at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (tOkJB)


Ed.

At least one of your entries is wrong. Texas polls close at 7 PM CST. That's 8 PM EST, not 9.

And with that, I'm off to pick up my little girl. Probably won't be back until tomorrow.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (nUH8H)

66 Ace, I believe that Rush L. is persona non grata with you, no?
But - he said something today which is pertinent - "do you really think fewer Republicans today are going to vote for Romney, than McCain? And - do you really believe more independents and Democrats are going to vote for Obama than in 2008?" Leaving aside tainted/timid polls, tainted/timid pundits, and fear, I think Limbaugh is on to something here.

Posted by: tubal at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (BoE3Z)

67 Nate Silver paraphrased, "If they didn't show up when we said they would, so what? They're gonna show up any minute now...right guys?"

Posted by: Dave S. at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (UvR6d)

68 41 All swing states trending red and we're ahead in every state but Virginia.

What? So Romney might win all the swing states but lose Virginia?

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (JVCVF)

69 Question for the morning after, "So. Mr Silver how did you buy oceanfront property in Arizona?"

Silver, "Well nine of my friends responded to my question of should I buy. Five said yes so I assumed they knew what they were talking about."

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (SkUim)

70 Very preliminary projection from Romney HQ: We win 300-238



This is from the Smart Guys Upstairs



Relax we have this.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (vWZrj)

Still got my fingers crossed. Sorry, but I can't relax until that bastard is out of office next January.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (qEkGZ)

71 Ah, Instagram.

Take a picture on a camera that is the results of decades of research and engineering and turn it into shit.

Instagram: The best thing in media since Paris Green.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (jo069)

72 He is an idiot.
Posted by: Vic at November 06, 2012 03:41 PM (YdQQY)


Short, sweet and to the point.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (OWjjx)

73
I'll be optimistic when I hear it confirmed VA went for Mitt.

I stand by what I said: this year, OH and VA are the Bobsy twins. We get one, we'll get the other.

Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (jUytm)

74 Vic, if you're still here, can I ask how you voted on the SC Constitution amendment re: governor and lt. governor?


Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 03:44 PM (lTVJy)


I voted yes. Past time to get rid of that antiquated crap left over from the Pitchfork Ben Tillman days.

Posted by: Vic at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (YdQQY)

75 Nobody is that dedicated to voting for Obama.

I'd come back from the dead for OBAMA PHONE!!@!

Posted by: That Obama Phone woman at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (B/VB5)

76 All is well. ALL IS WELLLLL!!!!!!

Posted by: Nate "Chip" Silver at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (QKKT0)

77 Thank you Truman. Very encouraging news indeed.

Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (P6QsQ)

78 Garbage in -- Garbage out

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 06, 2012 03:50 PM (UypUQ)

79 The early voters are known by their registration. But no one knows how many early-voting democrats voted for Romney!

As when I voted for Reagan, while still a registered democrat, in 1980.

Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (GoIUi)

80 Posted by: tubal at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (BoE3Z)

I am pretty certain Ace said that last night on his prediction thread.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (OWjjx)

81 I want Ohio to go red just to kick Silver in the teeth.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Whistling right through your troposphere. at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (Gk3SS)

82 By my early calculations, my cousin is full of shit about 75 % of the time. The other time he's full of Obama's load.

Posted by: Tate Gold, Nate Silver's Cousin at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (F6KtL)

83 Baseball Silver: "I’ll stick with the 538 forecastfor ARod.I disagree that the fact that he has struck out 25 times in his last 30 playoff at bats there provides much reason to drop him in the order."

Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (ekF3x)

84 Nate Silver's problem is the same thing that is wrong with the Climatology models: the underlying data is corrupted and they will not acknowledge this

Posted by: JollyRoger at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (t06LC)

85
59wheatie,i would guess not. i say that because thier registered in ny. so thier votes would count for NY not PA.

Posted by: Paul at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (xwVUV)

-----------

Let's hope they're not counted twice!

That would be the D-rat way.

Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (ICEh3)

86 Does anybody think that we'll actually know who won
this tonight? I think it will be weeks. Too many lawyers on both sides
ready to get into the game. Even if it is a blowout, no way SCOAMF
concedes. No class piece of shit that he is.


Posted by: clonefan at November 06, 2012 03:45 PM (83v+9)


Loosen up the tinfoil hat a few notches there, partner. If it's a blowout and everyone knows it, he'll concede, no matter how classless he is. He's not going to sit in the oval office clutching the desk and saying "Mine! Mine! Mine!" until they drag him out. Seriously--real world scenario. Even his advisers and inner circle would abandon him at that point. This will be over by midnite. Probably earlier.

Posted by: Double Wide at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (J8jzK)

87 Statistics are the only thing that lie more than politicians.

Posted by: dfbaskwill at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (71LDo)

88 Soothsayer, how do I get on the hate distribution list for tomorrow?

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (0cwsf)

89 Also, Intrade is worthless. It is extremely hard to get an account in the U.S. (I've tried). And their fee structure makes it a very inefficient market. So basically, it's just a bunch of Europeans who know nothing.

Posted by: LIGuy at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (HYD/Y)

90
I'm getting a funny feeling I could be wrong.

Posted by: Taint Shiver at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (PHb2k)

91 Cold and rainy here, with weather deteriorating as we get near the end of the workday. mama winger

Damn, after voting in Chicago we still gotta go over the border and vote in Wisconsin. Be a dear and keep those polls open for us, will ya? Don't disenfrancheese us!

Posted by: Busloads of Chicago Residents at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (feFL6)

92 Statistics are the only thing that lie more than politicians.

What about us?

Posted by: Rugs and Carpets Local 4561 at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (w+lzM)

93 This is how you do it. It wouldn't even be hard. It's not like the
granola-crunching hippie overlords and their criminal underclass will
maintain a proper military.


We wouldn't need one, man. We'll have a Department of Peace.

Posted by: A Granola Crunching Hippie at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (QKKT0)

94 #25

I'm not VIC, but I'm in SC and voted to put the Lt. Gov and Gov on one ticket (like most other states do).

My completely WAG about this is that the measure will pass, though I think if it does, it doesn't go into effect until 2016.

Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (PwGfd)

95 Silver is not stupid and he knows exactly what he's doing. He's been trying to set the narrative for the Dems and to an extent he's been successful.

Look how many trolls come running in here to announce that "Nate Silver says Obama's got this in the bag!".

He's not an analyst, he's playing for the other team.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (TMB3S)

96
At this point, I don't know what I will relish more: Obama's concession speech or Nate Silver's excuses for why he got it wrong.

Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (jUytm)

97
Just listened to Billy Cunningham of Ohio on Hannity radio show--was so excited he could hardly talk. GOP off the hook in Ohio (spoke to registrar ov voters and others) and he just heard from a friend in Naples, Fla who reported the same thing there.

I know Cunningham is an up guy, but he has been saying for days and repeated just now that it won't take long at all to call OH for Mitt tonight.

Come, on, VA!!!!!!!

Posted by: gayle in ca at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (wgmUB)

98 I want Virginia to go big for Romney so it depresses the libs in other states.

Posted by: NWConservative at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (Km8Wu)

99 Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (ICEh3)
__
Our governor, legislature and one US Senator are Republican. I doubt they'll allow the NY votes to count in the PA total. Especially when they are all keenly aware of PA's tight race.
p.s. The only storm concession I'm aware of is Corbett stating that absentee ballot applications would be extended one day.

Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (jm/9g)

100 I voted yes. Past time to get rid of that antiquated crap left over from the Pitchfork Ben Tillman days.

---

Good, I made the right call. Wasn't sure what to do on that.

Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (lTVJy)

101 Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 03:47 PM (nUH8H)



Allen, are you coming with your wife today to distribute the cheesecake?

(sorry I asked this three threads back, but as my luck is, two new posts went up pretty much immediately after I posted)

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (GrtrJ)

102 79 The early voters are known by their registration. But no one knows how many early-voting democrats voted for Romney!

As when I voted for Reagan, while still a registered democrat, in 1980.
Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (GoIUi)


They say they can tell who you voted for with a 93% certainty. Deep data, like I have been saying for months.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (vWZrj)

103 Reince Preibus said this morning (from his house here in Kenosha) that he looks around at all the people that are working on this campaign at the grassroots level, and realizes they are on a MISSION. They are locked in. They are in a frenzy. And in his gut, he says, there is no way we do not win.



His words.

May it be so.

Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (P6QsQ)

104 @84: The models themselves are pretty fucked too in the case of the code in the East Anglia dump. But your point is still good.

There was an interesting point in the runup to Sandy where NOAA doubled their data resolution on one run to have more reliable input to the models. Meaning they pretty much admit their day-to-day input data is worthless.

Posted by: Ian S. at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (B/VB5)

Posted by: lael at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (tUcg9)

106 At this point, I don't know what I will relish more: Obama's concession speech or Nate Silver's excuses for why he got it wrong.
Posted by: soothsayer

Do a chocolate/vanilla pudding swirl and enjoy them both.

Posted by: Roy at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (VndSC)

107 Posted by: Rugs and Carpets Local 4561 at November 06, 2012 03:52 PM (w+lzM)
--
Are we back on the carpet versus hardwood debate?

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (39GM8)

108
Normally, I read stories like this and part of my brain thinks, "Well, given such-and-such assumptions, I could see how they could reach this conclusion, even though it's totally wrong."

This time, I read Silver's quote through a couple times and thought, "What the @#$%????"

Posted by: T at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (esIfP)

109 Has MSNBC called it for Obama yet?

(I really didn't think it would take them this long...)

Posted by: My Vote Counted, Dammit! at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (IMY0F)

110 This is so fucking boring I'm going to scream. When are we going to get some results? It's 4 pm on the east coast already. I assume that it's not being leaked because it's bad for obama or something and the media don't want to hurt their boy by discouraging crazy ass donk voters.

Posted by: Walkers! at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (C4dFv)

111 Ace, did you see Rove's tweet on Pasco countty FL? The poll turnout is now 28,000+ Rep to 21200 Dem.

Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (s9K+V)

112 For any intraders out there, Intrade still has Romney in OH at only 30%.

If Romney pulls it off that's a 200%+ gain, though it may take a few weeks for the final certification.

I've got dry powder. . .should I buy some shares?

Anyone?

Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (PwGfd)

113 Fucking Bayes' theorem, how does it work?

Posted by: The History of Liquid at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (Wvtly)

114 Actually, I don't think they will call Ohio for either candidate tonight. It's too close.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (vWZrj)

115 >>>Nate Silver is a fool because he is treating this the way he does baseball - that the stats are cut and dried.

And actually "in the past" as opposed to a bunch of random opinions about future actions.

If he wanted to think about this like baseball he'd have to deal with a full 3/4 of the at bats, not randomly distributed, refusing to tell you the result of the play.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Trying to have Faith and not worry, no matter the outcome. at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (0q2P7)

116 But, but, but PaulKrugman saidthat Natys model isSCIENCE!™ !!11!

Posted by: Elize Nayden at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (bonPh)

117 I want Ohio to go red just to kick Silver in the teeth.

In argyle, no less.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (MnKNu)

118 Stacks of people to greet--



Romney in Pittsburgh.



http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/

"Who did they bring?"

"It looks like everybody."

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (JxIkO)

119 I weep for my ex-home of Philadelphia. What a fucking joke they've become.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (GrtrJ)

120 @6
Exactly.

Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (ekF3x)

121 Heard the same report from Bill Cunningham on Hannity (great American). I am finally starting to relax.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (UypUQ)

122 Deep data, like I have been saying for months.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (vWZrj)

-----------
That's what Reince was saying this morning. He said, "You know, we don't just guess on this stuff. We have numbers. We have data. We have analysis. We know who to target and how to target them."

Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (P6QsQ)

123 Wife just got in from voting...she was voter 1305 in a precinct of a little over 2000 and it was getting busy...my turn to go and help MI go Mitt!!

Posted by: Red Shirt at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (FIDMq)

124 80
Posted by: tubal at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (BoE3Z)



I am pretty certain Ace said that last night on his prediction thread.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 06, 2012 03:51 PM (OWjjx)
No shit? Well, never mind then. I was, uh, pressing sheets last night. ( Go away for just a little while to attend to, er - basic needs - sheesh!)

Posted by: tubal at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (BoE3Z)

125 Virginia? You kidding me? I'm in VA. This is the last swing state you need to worry about. If it is coming down to VA, then pop the cork now. If you live here in Loudoun (me!) or Fairfax, you are seeing what I'm seeing. Night and day from 2008. Night and day.

Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (ljiM/)

126 Pollster came to my house last week. When I told him I already voted he walked away without saying anything. I'm guessing this is a common tactic for getting pollsters to go away.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (UU6uJ)

127 From the last thread: Texas polls close at 7:00 pm Central time.
Texas poles close at 02:00 am, although last call is around 01:40 am. (DYSWIDT?)

Posted by: rickb223 at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (GFM2b)

128 Who the fuck is Nate Silver and why should I give a fat rat's ass?

Posted by: maddogg at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (OlN4e)

129 POsted on another thread (forgot which one, lose my place all the time on this blog) that Cunningham said he just heard from a person in Naples, FLa that "it's off the hook."

Posted by: gayle in ca at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (wgmUB)

130 Y'all are lying, just like yer candidate, Romney.

Who wants a president who lies? Who wants a guy who puts one finger in a cookie jar, slides it in and out repeatedly, then inserts a second finger in the cookie jar when it's gotten nice and warm and slippery?

Wait, what were we talking about??? I like cookies.

Posted by: Bubba at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (TOk1P)

131 My completely WAG about this is that the measure will pass, though I think if it does, it doesn't go into effect until 2016.

----

I think I remember 2018. At our polling location, I did see posters everywhere stating that come Jan 1, 2013, picture ID will be absolutely required.

Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (lTVJy)

132 "Actually, I don't think they will call Ohio for either candidate tonight. It's too close."

They called Ohio for Bush by 11PM in 2004. He won by 100,000.

Romney is tracking for a 200K - 250K win in Ohio.

It will be called tonight.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (JxIkO)

133 All done with Orca. Wound up with a standard strikelist due to some issue with the app. Was stationed at a 55+ community in SE Pa. By 2:30 almost 500 of the ~720 voters for the precinct had already voted.
Realizing that the site would have 90+% of the livingvoters i called it a day and took my logbook to the Romney location. Voters new to the location this cycle were often not in the logbook.
Them old folks kept me busy averaging a voter a minute. The only out-loud opinions being voted were pro Romney. Only saw one voter with Democrap garb on.
Long day, but i did my little bit.


Posted by: buzzsaw90 at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (kzejo)

134 The inside campaign data is no better than what we get, they don't get magic sparkly super polls. They're missing 91 out of 100 attempts to connect with people too.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (r4wIV)

135 At what point does Reince Priebus start getting the Ewok treatment around here after slaying another liberal dragon...?

Posted by: H Badger at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (n/0Nw)

136
oh yeah, and happy birthday, Ed

Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (jUytm)

137 Nate Silver, Your 15 minutes are over.


Posted by: Bart who lurks with SMOD 2012, master of his domain at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (he2LC)

138 #102 Truman, I know the Romney folks can. But the papers and Fox can't. They don't have all of that information.

And the dems, if they have it, would lie anyway.

Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (GoIUi)

139 <<This is so fucking boring I'm going to scream. When are we going to get some results? It's 4 pm on the east coast already.>>

This your first election? Polls don't close until 7 or 8 EST and calls don't get made until after that.

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (UU6uJ)

140 What do the polls have to say about ladyparts? I believe this needs some illumination and exposure.

Posted by: Fritz at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (/ZZCn)

141 Voted. I hit 'submit' harder than I've ever hit 'submit' before, almost as if by the simple act, I could find some catharsis for the past four years.

Fairfax, Virginia.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (u0MHM)

142 56 #15 tasker: That is an amazing picture! Am repeating the link so people will go look at it!

Stacks of people to greet--



Romney in Pittsburgh.



http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/




Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 03:48 PM (GoIUi)

________________

*ugh* I am going to be sick.

Their is a media source reporting--

300 people.

Those people --are the people that could not get in--plus the airport is a good haul from Pittsburgh...


But--*media* "report"--300.

Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (r2PLg)

143 What? So Romney might win all the swing states but lose Virginia?
Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (JVCVF)


---------------------------------------------


Chill out. VA will be fine.

Posted by: Soona at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (4bdZW)

144 110 This is so fucking boring I'm going to scream. When are we going to get some results?


hehe.

I am out of the country, and voted a month ago, so I can't do much but wait.

Just hung some new drapes and about to make some celebratory dessert for tonight.

'Bout all I can do, now.

And, listening to Hannity via the web.

I agree with Truman, we got this.

It's like Chick-fil-A on steroids. Or, a much, much quieter, humbler, 2010. ;-)

Posted by: He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named at November 06, 2012 03:57 PM (LpQbZ)

145 OK, here's a recipe for Mexican chocolate pudding.
1 c heavy cream
1/2 c half and half
1/2 c semi-sweet chocolate chips
1 tsp vanilla extract
1/2 tsp cinnamon
1/8 tsp ground chipotle pepper
4 egg yolks
1/4 c sugar

Whisk egg yolks and sugar in a bowl until well blended. Combine all the other ingredients in a saucepan over medium heat and stir continually. As soon as it reaches a boil remove from heat.

Slowly pour the hot cream mixture into the eggs and sugar, constantly stirring to avoid any scrambled egg bits. After everything is mixed together, pour through a fine strainer into a serving bowl, then chill for a few hours. Makes about 2.5 cups.

Posted by: The Mad Analyst at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (hZ4ZR)

146 >>David Limbaugh ‏@DavidLimbaugh
Just saw update from RNC says turnout up (125%) in GOP Geauga County, OH where McCain won 57 & down 10% in Athens Cty where O won 67%.

Suck on it, Nate.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (TMB3S)

147 If Mitt Romney wins, I promise I will kiss Phoebe Cates on any of her body parts she chooses. I know, its a sacrifice but I'm willing to go out on a limb like that.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (r4wIV)

148 buzzsaw90,

I mean this non-ironically: You're a great American.

Posted by: ace at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (LCRYB)

149 *There* is a media source.

(hate when I do that.)

The media is--evil.

Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (r2PLg)

150
99 Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:46 PM (ICEh3)
__
Our governor, legislature and one US Senator are Republican. I doubt they'll allow the NY votes to count in the PA total. Especially when they are all keenly aware of PA's tight race.
p.s. The only storm concession I'm aware of is Corbett stating that absentee ballot applications would be extended one day.

Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (jm/9g)

----------

Thanks, kallisto.
That helps my nerves a bit, to be reminded of the R-gov, and R-legislature there.
I hope they will be able to keep a lid on the fraud.

Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (ICEh3)

151 /
Btw, ACE.. I will have a goofy gif about Nate Silver ready to go tonight if what we are seeing comes to fruition. I'd be delighted if it could be included in a 'pudding' thread.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (UypUQ)

152 Bill Cunningham on Hannity just said that Ohio is in Romney's column based on EV and turnout.

He said Romney is blowing away Bush (00,04) numbers.

It will be historic GOP turnout.

President Romney!

Posted by: nhwingnut at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (DhgCF)

153 That's what Reince was saying this morning. He said, "You know, we don't just guess on this stuff. We have numbers. We have data. We have analysis. We know who to target and how to target them."
Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (P6QsQ)

This is what I have been saying for literally months. This is why none of you morons were ever pushed by the Romney campaign. This is why they didn't spend a ton on ads.

They know who will vote, they know how to gethem to vote, and now we're turning them out.

Relax.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (vWZrj)

154 After one Dem Presidential primary contest, Joe Lieberman, who came in around 4th, claimed that he did well because he was within the margin of error (a few pct points), of third place.

Um, yeah Joe, but there is no "margin of error" for actual votes.

But maybe Nate Silver will claim Obama won if he finishes within three points of Romney in Ohio. Margin of error.

Posted by: edj at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (+QKfp)

155 Please god, please god, please god, may Romney-- may we-- win this beyond the margin of fraud.

Here's hoping for all the Dems' desperate attempts, the most they do is make their defeat look slightly less humiliating.

Posted by: lael at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (tUcg9)

156 I want the 'Chicago is OUT?' guy at Obama's concession speech tonight, just to hear him say "Obama is OUT? OBAMA IS OUT?!?!?"

Posted by: Countrysquire at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (QB3JR)

157
Virginia? You kidding me? I'm in VA. This is the last swing state you
need to worry about. If it is coming down to VA, then pop the cork now.
If you live here in Loudoun (me!) or Fairfax, you are seeing what I'm
seeing. Night and day from 2008. Night and day.


Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (ljiM/)
Exactly. It was a madhouse. At 0530. Mostly Romney supporters.Of course, they probably all had jobs to get to too.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (u0MHM)

158 "Pasco countty FL? The poll turnout is now 28,000+ Rep to 21200 Dem."

Pasco is a swing district.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (JxIkO)

159 Once again, real men use warm bread pudding soaked in rum.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (OWjjx)

160 Didn't Jimmuh lust in his heart for the polls? Or was it the Poles?

Meh. Kielbasa under the bridge.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (vCK/R)

161 Cunningham is sucking dicks already. Ohio is still too close to call. But we are ahead.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (vWZrj)

162 "22
From previous thread: "We agree to let them secede, let them have their half...
Then, after a few years have gone by

and Libtardistan is on the brink of collapse, we invade it and seize

their half again, restoring the country once again as a contiguous

whole."

This is how you do it. It wouldn't even be hard. It's
not like the granola-crunching hippie overlords and their criminal
underclass will maintain a proper military.


Posted by: dawnfire at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (eEeH7)"====It's actually even easier. Look at where all the water and food for the cities comes from. Within a month, the cities would be barren wastelands.Look at the chaos Sandy is causing and multiply it by a thousand.I'm about there. I'm so fucking sick of hearing how superior liberals are to the rest of us that I can't even stand the sound of their voices. Exceptions made for when they are crying about elections they lose, of course.

Posted by: BS Inc. at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (P2Ufm)

163 143 What? So Romney might win all the swing states but lose Virginia?
Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 03:49 PM (JVCVF)


---------------------------------------------


Chill out. VA will be fine.

Yeah, I figure that. I just wanted Truman to elaborate a little on his comment. It seemed a little strange.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (JVCVF)

164 Romney in Pittsburgh.

http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/



yea, this is great.

anyone have the ryan 6000 turnout one that gateway pundit mentions? he doesn't have a pict up.

Posted by: THE day at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (LpQbZ)

165 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
RT @GarrettNBCNews: Romney, emotional as he waves to the crowd in Pittsburgh. "That's when you know you're gonna win." instagr.am/p/Rs3c3xK8FV/

Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (ck76k)

166 "128 Who the fuck is Nate Silver and why should I give a fat rat's ass?
Posted by: maddogg at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (OlN4e)"

God loves balance. So he created fire and water. Day and night. Man and woman.Thus when God created the honey-badger, Nate Silver followed.

Posted by: Elize Nayden at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (bonPh)

167
The map needs to be PLAID dammit
ALL-OF-IT!!

Posted by: Itchytriggerfinger at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (2KFyP)

168 140 What do the polls have to say about ladyparts?
I believe this needs some illumination and exposure.

Or at the very least, some kleenex.

Posted by: rickb223 at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (zji3t)

169 At what point does Reince Priebus start getting the Ewok treatment around here after slaying another liberal dragon...?

We select an 'ette to be given to Star Khan Priebus as a offering for his continued guidance.

Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (GQ8sn)

170 Nate Silver is still just looking at the polls.

NTTAWWT

Posted by: PR at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (KHo8t)

171 IN and KY close at 6. Results to trickle in after 6.

I'm biding my time subtley panicking the folks at intrade

Posted by: Up with people at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (kzFo5)

172 Yes, his history as a sabermetrician plays a huge part of why I distrust
him. Just like in baseball, he isn't taking a number of things into
account that don't show up in the raw numbers.


The raw numbers are much more useful in baseball because your sample size is huge. You've got 30 teams playing 168 regular season games/year. Polling a quadrennial election with data gleaned from a 9% response rate is a totally different animal. Particularly when the 9% that respond are demonstrably different from the rest of the voting population - as indicated by being dumb enough to waste their time talking to pollsters. By the way, can that 9% number be constant? Does it start out at 9% and get smaller as the election drags on, or is that an inferred average over the duration of the polling season? My hunch is that the number of people willing to keep talking over the last couple of weeks is even smaller and less reliable.

Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM (+lsX1)

173 blehzor, I didn't see that.

Was that county pro-Obama in 2008?

Posted by: ace at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM (LCRYB)

174 *If* PA gets close--

1,000 first responders wee given an extended time to vote.

I doubt it will get that close--but maybe the Casey--Smith vote will.

Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM (r2PLg)

175 Stacks of people to greet--



Romney in Pittsburgh.



http://instagram.com/p/Rs3tLYsclk/


Revenge of the Bitter Clingers! That is just an awesome photo! Thanks to tasker for the original post!

Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM (GoIUi)

176 Shep just told a story about a woman who voted after her water broke, but before she drove herself to the hospital.

You KNOW she's a Romney voter. That's commitment.

Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM (u0MHM)

177 Some uplifting opinion from the New York Post ==

http://tinyurl.com/aluvrpt

About how Gallup and Rasmussen have Republican voters outnumbering Democrat voters for the first time . . . ever.

Hey we all need a couple of posts to raise our spirits a bit.

Posted by: Jcw46 at November 06, 2012 04:01 PM (SP4jC)

178 Asking how I quickly get my account funded at Intrade, hinting at a leaked exit poll twitting.

Posted by: Up with people at November 06, 2012 04:01 PM (kzFo5)

179 Long lines at 6am when I voted in Falls Church. My brother and Mom went mid-day and said it only took about 15 minutes.

Total of 15 votes from my immediate and extended family in Virginia.

Anxious, but hopeful.

Posted by: Jenny at November 06, 2012 04:01 PM (Bowr9)

180
so if I bought a share of Mitt @ $2.98 and he wins, then I get back $10, for a profit of $7.02?

Is that right??

Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 04:01 PM (jUytm)

181

Cher's face is going to melt right off.

Posted by: THE day at November 06, 2012 04:01 PM (LpQbZ)

182 After this is over, I will tell you all what I've been thinking all along.

Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 04:01 PM (P6QsQ)

183 Truman where's your last 15EV's going to come from?

Posted by: H Badger at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (n/0Nw)

184 #134

Inside polling is potentially better because it should use tighter screens on likely voters. It may (or may not) use better sample sizes too.

But the main reason its better is because the ones commissioning the polls have (or should) have an agenda of finding the truth, rather than making headlines or boostering one party.


Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (PwGfd)

185 145 Wont the Chipotle powder make your junk burn??

Posted by: steevy at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (9XBK2)

186 180 so if I bought a share of Mitt @ $2.98 and he wins, then I get back $10, for a profit of $7.02? Is that right??

Yep.

Posted by: rickb223 at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (zji3t)

187 God, I am now getting depressed. Reading the blog at the Philly Inquirer and they are interviewing voters. So many saying they are voting for Obama because of abortion and Planned Parenthood. One college student had to drop out because his family could not afford tuition anymore, and said he is voting for Obama because he thinks he will help lower the costs of college. One person I think I know, said she was 50-50 but decided to vote for Obama because of his stand on women's issues.

I am ashamed of my gender.

Posted by: rockmom at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (aBlZ1)

188 176 Shep just told a story about a woman who voted after her water broke, but before she drove herself to the hospital.

You KNOW she's a Romney voter. That's commitment.

Well, we know what the fate of the kid would have been if she'd been an Obama voter.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (JVCVF)

189 Ace, did you see Rove's tweet on Pasco countty FL? The poll turnout is now 28,000+ Rep to 21200 Dem.
Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (s9K+V)


-------------------------------------------


And once again you have to consider that not all dems are voting for Baraka.

Posted by: Soona at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (4bdZW)

190 Posted by: Dave in Fla

Apparently not today...

I don't think they made the Hope-Aid as strong.



Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (s9K+V)

191 @ErinMcPike: According to GOP sources on the ground, Romney camp's "ORCA" turnout app has crashed, so they can't monitor their turnout op

Posted by: Tami at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (X6akg)

192 Just voted in Madison, WI.

I was number 742 at 2:45. It took me 5 minutes. There was no real line.
Turnout has been light today for the dems at my polling place it seems like. Oh, and when I went to lunch, NONE of the polling places I drove past had any lines, or more than a few cars in the lots. Anecdotal, I know, but good. In other news, my parents voted in Waukesha county at 10am, and said that they were between 500 and 600 to vote (I can't remember the exact number), and that there was a doubled back line to the polling place. Their area goes heavily republican, so light turnout in dark blue madistan (so far) and great turnout in red waukesha (anecdotally).

Posted by: GMan at November 06, 2012 04:02 PM (UkbKS)

193 Man, you guys are killing my inner Eeyore. I have to admit being glad to see him in his death thoes.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (uD2fR)

194
Long ass lines in Lee County, FL but I was in and out inside an hour.
There's only one group of voters that can be identified while you're standing in line.

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (9ghZ6)

195 Based on no data and pure gut instinct, I am calling Ohio for Mitt right now, next.

Posted by: Ringo at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (dQ/Oc)

196 throes*

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (uD2fR)

197 Last time I had funds at Intrade it was a Newt buy ($400+) at pennies a share. All he had to do was announce. The prick. And I cash out at $3 This was the last election. Newt screwed me.

Posted by: Up with people at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (kzFo5)

198 Is that right??>>

Did you already subtract the Vig to the house?

Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (tf9Ne)

199
Oh, FFS Truman. WTF?

First its 'we got this' from Mitts campaign, then its OH won't be called tonight, then its 'relax, we got this'.

You're whipplashing me brother. There is going to be an investigation of what Truman knew and when did he know it.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (PHb2k)

200
Posted by: buzzsaw90 at November 06, 2012 03:56 PM (kzejo)

Kudos, buzzsaw. Well done.

Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (ICEh3)

201 ace has a turnout post up.

Posted by: Vic at November 06, 2012 04:03 PM (YdQQY)

202 Wait.

Just heard on FNC.

Bloomberg slammed the elections board in NYC, calling it a "third world country".

He's gotta be fucking high!

No matter what they are doing, it is likely to be significantly more than what he has done.

He's gotta lotta damn nerve.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (piMMO)

203 Wait-- I thought those Wasserman numbers were bullshit, just a placeholder from the Gannett story that got pulled earlier today?

Posted by: Wait at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (MPIX5)

204 Is Virginia in the bag??

Posted by: Jmel at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (c+D8V)

205 Posted by: wheatie at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (ICEh3)
___
It's so weird to hear PA constantly referred to (in MSM) as a solid democrat state, considering the make-up of our elected officials. If GOP turnout is as good as is being reported here and elsewhere, there's a very good chance Mr. Smith will go to Washington, instead of Senator Empty Suit Casey Jr.

Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (jm/9g)

206 Evilpens

Are you seeing that story about severed deer parts left at the door--of Romney's Pittsburgh office--and all the signs stolen?

Can only find one source on twitter--

Posted by: tasker at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (r2PLg)

207 2 Bill Cunningham on Hannity just said that Ohio is in Romney's column based on EV and turnout.

He said Romney is blowing away Bush (00,04) numbers.

It will be historic GOP turnout.

President Romney!

Cunningham KNOWS Ohio like the back of his hand

Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (ck76k)

208 Romney camp's "ORCA" turnout app has crashed, so they can't monitor their turnout op

I knew they shouldn't have hired Pixy.

Posted by: Ian S. at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (B/VB5)

209 #180

Yup.

Plus, if you win, you get the satisfaction of knowing that the $7.00 you won was taken right out of the pocket of an Obama booster.


Posted by: Looking closely at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (PwGfd)

210 Carpet of course. And people were asking ho much earlier.

\({})/ That much.
Let's not go euro here. Keep those legs and pits smooth ladies.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (QbKVX)

211
they take juice?

of course they do...what was I thinking

what's their vig?

Posted by: soothsayer at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (jUytm)

212 169
At what point does Reince Priebus start getting the Ewok treatment around here after slaying another liberal dragon...?

We select an 'ette to be given to Star Khan Priebus as a offering for his continued guidance.


Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (GQ8sn)

Has anyone noticed he looks like The Black Adder?

Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (EsJl1)

213 Where is Norah O'Donnell? Find her. Let's do this the proper way.

Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (ekF3x)

214 132 Romney is tracking for a 200K - 250K win in Ohio.

It will be called tonight.
===========
Happiness is an ice cold diet Coke and a Dave In Fla guarantee.

Posted by: edj at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (+QKfp)

215 The raw numbers are much more useful in baseball because your sample size is huge.

Plus, baseball is an extremely regimented, rule-hedged system of specific tasks and events. That's much easier to analyze and reduce to stats than human voting behavior.

The intangibles in baseball can make a difference, but other than injury usually can be accounted for. Voting, not so much.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (r4wIV)

216 Bacon Pudding. The dipping will be sweet.

Posted by: Psycotte at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (Hk10/)

217 We select an 'ette to be given to Star Khan Priebus as a offering for his continued guidance.


Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (GQ8sn)

-----------
I'll volunteer. He lives like two miles up the road from me.

Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (P6QsQ)

218 At this point, I don't know what I will relish more: Obama's concession speech or Nate Silver's excuses for why he got it wrong.

You don't grasp the beauty of the Nate Silver strategy. See, he's not making a binary prediction on a binary event like a man with functioning integrity -- he's just chickenshit reporting the percentage likelihood of each possible binary outcome coming to pass.

So after Romney wins, Nate Silver didn't get anything "wrong". After all, flip a coin a hundred times and I'll bet you get a run of tails four or five times straight.

He's just staring at the raw Matrix like Cipher, interpreting it all in real-time with his super-brain, and telling you trogs what he sees.

Posted by: VJay at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (q5NFp)

219
Very preliminary projection from Romney HQ: We win 300-238

This is from the Smart Guys Upstairs

Relax we have this.Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 06, 2012 03:43 PM (vWZrj)



GET OUT AND VOTE!!! FINISH HIM!!!

Posted by: rd at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (zLp5I)

220 Posted by: ace at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM (LCRYB)


110,000 to 102,000 McCain in 2008.

These early polls indicate lower Dem turnout.

This margin can only grow as people who actually have jobs go vote after work.

Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (s9K+V)

221 the campaigns are seeing real data now. If you are hearing good news from our side, it's from what they are seeing on the ground, not some internal polling.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 06, 2012 04:06 PM (2zM0P)

222 185 Well, it's more of a deep, smoky tingle. Easily remedied if the pudding is accompanied by a tequila whipped cream.

Posted by: The Mad Analyst at November 06, 2012 04:06 PM (hZ4ZR)

223 Posted by: edj at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (+QKfp)
__
holy crap that's right in the range Dave in FLA predicted

Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 04:06 PM (jm/9g)

224 Has anyone noticed he looks like The Black Adder?

Which version? The snivling chinless Blackadder I? The handsome devilish Blackadder III?

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (r4wIV)

225 191
@ErinMcPike: According to GOP sources on the ground, Romney camp's
"ORCA" turnout app has crashed, so they can't monitor their turnout op

I was wondering about ORCA. I signed up, called in, took the online training, and then...nothing. Never got the app, never got an assignment, nothing. When I went to vote, the strike list workers were holding blank paper and writing in names. I guessed that they already had a volunteer for my area (Loudoun Co. VA) and either the app never worked or they couldn't get the voter data loaded in. But did some people actually use the ORCA app today?

Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (ljiM/)

226 Drudge removed his Obama crying picture, is Drudge getting ready to release 5pm exit polls?

I know most here don't care about the exit polls but I am still curious.

Posted by: War69.com at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (ayPhb)

227
VA-11 here. I only had to wait about half an hour in line to vote, but the poll workers were commenting that things had been crazy there all day. Cars that had bumper stickers were about half R, half O. Pretty much the same with yard signs around here.

And maybe this is an omen (of the good sort), but after voting I took my kid to the grocery store. There was a large display of pudding boxes and he excitedly said "Hey, lets buy some pudding for tonight!". The kid is waaaaay too young to have ever read this blog. Two boxes of chocolate pudding are now waiting to be mixed up.

Posted by: Hoplite Housewife at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (qtKqj)

228 Romney camp's "ORCA" turnout app has crashed, so they can't monitor their turnout op
one of you tech guys better get on this, stat.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (2zM0P)

229 Just voted in Madison, WI.

I was number 742 at 2:45.

----------------


Are you serious? That's a really low turnout. It was 1500 in my polling place in Kenosha at noon.

Posted by: mama winger says let's get this done at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (P6QsQ)

230 And i'm sorry the correct numbers are now

30778 Rep

22292 Dem

http://www.pascovotes.com/turnout.asp

Posted by: blehzor at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (s9K+V)

231 > Night and day from 2008. Night and day.


Posted by: Matt at November 06, 2012 03:55 PM (ljiM/)


my cousin lives in Wooddbridge VA- what county is that?

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:08 PM (8sCoq)

232 That iceberg means nothing. Full steam ahead.

Posted by: Captain Nate Silver, SS Titanic at November 06, 2012 04:08 PM (BuSM8)

233 Fucking Bayes' theorem, how does it work?

Posted by: The History of Liquid at November 06, 2012 03:54 PM (Wvtly)
I have tried to comprehend that damned thing, but I'm too stupid to understand it.

Posted by: Ombudsman at November 06, 2012 04:08 PM (HqXYa)

234 Did someone up thread say cheesecake? Some Halloween cheesecake from the Green Bay Packers.
http://tinyurl.com/bpxl389

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:08 PM (SkUim)

235 At this moment, I do not give a shit about Nate Silver. He's only one among hundreds of "journalists" who have allowed themselves to be so swayed by partisanship that they couldn't/wouldn't report a fact if it was shoved up their butts.

There are many who need to be unceremoniously fired after this election. Among them the entire "news" staff at NBC, all reporters and editors at the NY Slimes and all those others. Thanks to them, we have endured more than four years of drooling, sucking Choom Boy worship while felonies large and small not only went unreported but continue unabated even today.

So forget Nate Silver. He is no more a useless cretin than Chuck Todd, no more an unabashed cheerleader for treason than Soledad O'Brien or Candy Crowley.

While they're polishing those final turds for President Historic First©, voting fraud continues. Any decent reporter would be reporting it. Of course, any decent jurisdiction in the country would be making arrests, too.

Posted by: MrScribbler, banned at TepidAir at November 06, 2012 04:08 PM (yKUrR)

236 Cher's face is going to melt right off.

-------

IOW, a typical Tuesday.

Posted by: Lady in Black voting with her lady parts to send TFG packing! at November 06, 2012 04:08 PM (lTVJy)

237 The waiting...the waiting is the worst part.
In 2008 we knew were we going to lose at the outset, so...no big deal.
But constantly clicking the refresh button for any hope of a leaked result is...
well...Unhealthy.

Posted by: MrShad at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (Xqfwb)

238 217
We select an 'ette to be given to Star Khan Priebus as a offering for his continued guidance.




Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 03:59 PM (GQ8sn)

-----------
I'll volunteer. He lives like two miles up the road from me.


Posted by: mama winger at November 06, 2012 04:05 PM (P6QsQ)
Maybe we should have a pudding wrestling match to select the winner?

Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (EsJl1)

239 Lies, damned lies, and misapplied statistics.

Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (hlwt5)

240 Good sign...

Joan Walsh from Salon is concerned that "voter suppression" is a big problem. You don't start making excuses if you are getting indications your side is winning.

Posted by: jwest at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (ZDsRL)

241
#231
Woodbridge, Virginia is in Prince William County. Fairly conservative area.

Posted by: Hoplite Housewife at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (qtKqj)

242
Did someone up thread say cheesecake? Some Halloween cheesecake from the Green Bay Packers.
http://tinyurl.com/bpxl389


MEOW!

Anna, are you sure that's Green Bay? They have no official team cheerleaders. Those would have to be local college team girls or.....oh my......highschoolers.

Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (GQ8sn)

243 >>A woman wearing an MIT t-shirt was barred from voting Florida, according to a local report. MIT stands for theMassachusetts Institute of Technology, not Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney.

Did they also throw out the guy in the Broncos shirt and Bama hat?

Posted by: Mama AJ at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (SUKHu)

244 Just dropped off my absentee ballot to polling place in Mira Mesa area of San Diego. Not sure about the politics of this zip code 92126. Its close to MCAS and my workplace. Maybe a couple people inside voting and a couple people walking toward polling station. Did see a crazed Obamabot coming to vote. Her car was a dead giveaway. Leftist love going overboard with bumper stickers.

Posted by: Kiana at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (w41GQ)

245 #229 Totally serious. I was shocked that it was so low. In perspective, the recall had much higher turnout here.

Posted by: GMan at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (UkbKS)

246 I'm glad Drudge took down weepy 0bama pic- am sick of that man's face and voice

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (8sCoq)

247 Truman, to get to 300-238, I gave the good guys Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, NH, CO, and because you've been bullish on it, NM. I gave Team Evil Nevada and Pennsylvania. Even though you said we're not ahead in VA, I gave us that one too to get to 300. Is that the state-by-state you're hearing?

Posted by: CNH_320 at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (eeKvo)

248 Looks like a lot of people on Intrade are going to lose their asses tonight.

Posted by: Keith Arnold at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (Jdtsu)

249 I'll volunteer. He lives like two miles up the road from me.

The Star Khan likes his offerings to be freshly waxed, dressed in silk, and carrying two bottles of Val-U-Rite.

Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (GQ8sn)

250
Old News....keep up ACE!! This is from this morning...Geauga County....GOP area....up 125 PERCENT increase from early voting from 2008. Predicting 80 percent turnout....McCain won 57...BUSH 60....forecast higher for Romney....very important county in OH....Lake County...GOP up and Dem Downs....Obama won in 2008 and is not losing in 2012 (Early Vote)

In Athens County...College Town Voting Early...Down 10 percent from 2008 and Low Voter Turnout reported this afternoon and morning...Dem County..

Tom Cunningham on Hannity....Butler County Officials have NEVER seen turnout like this before exceeding BUSH's in 2004!!! Big GOP COUNTY...Hamilton County Obama down in early voting.....Sorrounding GOP counties Voting Lines are through the roof and out the door....

HUGE GOP TURNOUT IN OH all over the State...reports my brother who works with the campaign for Romney!! Exceeding targets all over!

I live in Florida and the same....my area on West Side Orlando...GOP AREA...the lines are longer than 2010 when Rubio and Scott came to power....Never seen anything like it....massive and reports in Pasco County...GOP way up....in Collier County...lines out the door....in Volusia County...Obama was up 26 in early voting...TODAY he is down to 10 points....A 16 point swing!! This county Obama won by 6 in 2008...right now with the change he will lose by 7 percent...Volusia is Daytona Beach....

Nate Silver is in for a long long night!!! Reports of Massive GOP Turnout is taking place in WI, PA, IA, MI and MN....Mitt leading already in CO...VA also record turnout GOP!!

GO MITT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at November 06, 2012 04:11 PM (HDcKc)

251
If You Can Motivate Republicans in Uncompetitive States…
By Jim Geraghty
November 6, 2012 3:56 P.M. Comments0
Back on October 26, I wrote that barring some change, Mitt Romney would win the popular vote. Of course, that was one hurricane/super-storm Sandy ago.

One of the criteria I cited for that assertion was Romney polling better than McCain in both deep blue states and deep red states. No one really expects states like California, Connecticut, Arkansas and Oklahoma to perform any differently than expected, but in each of these states, trends like this put Romney closer to a national popular vote victory. Of course, as Al Gore can tell you, that kind of victory gets you a cup of coffee at Starbucks – as long as you have a few dollars on you.

A reader in Oklahoma reports:

Here in Oklahoma, where Obama failed to carry a single county in 2008, and where the few polls anyone has bothered with indicate he will have a hard time breaking 33% this year, you would think that voters would be in taking it for granted mode. Other than the presidential race, there is not much on the statewide ballot to draw people to the polls — no U. S. Senate race, no race for any statewide office, with the only really contested race in the second Congressional district, where Mark Wayne Mullin is likely to pick up retiring Democrat Dan Boren’s seat. Democrats are so dispirited here that they failed to even field candidates for two offices on the state Corporation Commission this year, and the GOP is sure to hold and expand its lopsided legislative majorities. So there doesn’t seem to be anything likely to drive a high turnout. Yet the state election board at midday reported turnout as high or higher than in 2008. I waited in line for 90 minutes at my Oklahoma City precinct and was number 777 to vote at 1 p.m., with more coming in all the time. The crowd looked very Republican, as is the neighborhood — white, middle aged and up. Romney backers here know he will carry Oklahoma with one of the highest percentages in the nation, but they are still turning out in big numbers to be part of it.

AP: “Oklahoma Election Board Secretary Paul Ziriax says heavy voter turnout is being reported statewide and voters are reporting waits of an hour to an hour.5 to cast their ballots. Polls are open until at 7 p.m. Tuesday for the general election and Ziriax says long lines were being reported at precincts statewide as voters waited to cast their ballots. Ziriax said no technical problems have been reported. He said the turnout is “on track” to be the largest since the last presidential election in 2008 when about 67% of voters cast ballots.”

If you can motivate Republicans to turn out in non-competitive states, you ought to be able to motivate Republicans to turn out in competitive states, no?

Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 04:11 PM (ck76k)

252 The kid is waaaaay too young to have ever read this blog. Two boxes of chocolate pudding are now waiting to be mixed up.

Posted by: Hoplite Housewife at November 06, 2012 04:07 PM (qtKqj)
I wouldn't so sure of that. Morons aren't made they are born that way.

Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 04:11 PM (EsJl1)

253 Truman, I want to believe it, but it won't be real for me until Detroit is rioting.

Posted by: Armando at November 06, 2012 04:11 PM (5iuEW)

254 So forget Nate Silver. He is no more a useless cretin than Chuck Todd,
no more an unabashed cheerleader for treason than Soledad O'Brien or
Candy Crowley.


He's worse. He's using science to peddle snake oil.

Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 04:11 PM (MzQOZ)

255 Barry is toast.

Posted by: toby928© for TB at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM (QupBk)

256 Is it possible to open and fund an intrade account for immediate use?

Posted by: slatz at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM (mE0Rl)

257 Triman thank you for the updates !!!!!!!
Keep 'em coming !!!!!!!!!!
Praying hard for A Great Romney Ryan Victory !!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM (SIgM0)

258 they take juice?

of course they do...what was I thinking


what's their vig?

Well apparently it's not a Vig Vig per this quote from the Intrade site.

"With no vig, no juice, no artificial spread, intrade charges a small transaction charge per lot traded."

Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM (tf9Ne)

259 EC, well now that I have closed out that browser window I can't say. For them to have no official team probably explains why some who were on the field that day looked like normal folk dressing funny.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM (SkUim)

260 207 2 Bill Cunningham on Hannity just said that Ohio is in Romney's column based on EV and turnout.

He said Romney is blowing away Bush (00,04) numbers.

It will be historic GOP turnout.

President Romney!

Cunningham KNOWS Ohio like the back of his hand
Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 04:04 PM (ck76k)


dont take it for granted get out and vote.

also dont let any MSM exit poll bs depress anyone.

Posted by: Avi at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM (40anC)

261 I'm jonse'n for some cool chocolate pudding.

Posted by: Walkers! at November 06, 2012 04:13 PM (C4dFv)

262 EC, well now that I have closed out that browser window I can't say. For
them to have no official team probably explains why some who were on
the field that day looked like normal folk dressing funny.


They are still healthy looking girls though!

Posted by: EC at November 06, 2012 04:13 PM (GQ8sn)

263 Yeah... We all know what Nate's gulping.

"Caacck! No so hard Barack! You're choking me"

Posted by: Hill Billy at November 06, 2012 04:14 PM (6Lobp)

264 Just taking a break from ORCA in St Johns County, FLa


HUGE early vote turnout in FLA, especially in R counties. 6700 early votes in St Johns County ( very Republican ). Big crowds early, tapering off in the afternoon, going back soon to expected crowds before 7 pm


NTTAWWT, but every voter I saw was White or White Hispanic in a kinda Whitey area. No fraud, several voters over 90 years old, lots of determination.


One guy said he'd shoot his way in to vote, if necessary. ( not necessary )


N.E. Florida is doing its part===========you do the rest

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 04:14 PM (Dll6b)

265 240 Thanks, I had the volume off, couldn't listen to her on MSNBC but I was watching to see if they were giving any tells, possibility of those exit polls leaking out before the quarantine is up.

Posted by: War69.com at November 06, 2012 04:14 PM (ayPhb)

266 Looks like a lot of people on Intrade are going to lose their asses tonight.

I think a lot of Europeans were betting that nobody would vote for anyone but Obama, obviously! Heh....

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 04:15 PM (r4wIV)

267
Good sign...



Joan Walsh from Salon is concerned that "voter suppression" is a big
problem. You don't start making excuses if you are getting indications
your side is winning.

Posted by: jwest at November 06, 2012 04:09 PM (ZDsRL)



Voter suppression. Mitt Romney is closing the doors to voting places? What a load of horseshit

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 06, 2012 04:16 PM (1Jaio)

268 Am I the...only one who can't...really force myself to....read over-ellipsed (I just...made that word...up) comments...?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 06, 2012 04:16 PM (uD2fR)

269 Meh, Obama's not worried about this at all, since he just wants to win that coveted 57th state, Oiho.

Posted by: Clyde Shelton at November 06, 2012 04:16 PM (vUK/h)

270 Can't wait until the condescension of Nate Silver PBUH.

Posted by: Yomomma at November 06, 2012 04:16 PM (UB6eP)

271 no banner on drudge

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:17 PM (8sCoq)

272 270's! Here's where you need to be Mitt! This area or higher!

Posted by: levi at November 06, 2012 04:17 PM (5V/0T)

273 Shep just told a story about a woman who voted after her water broke, but before she drove herself to the hospital.


Posted by: Washington Nearsider at November 06, 2012 04:00 PM

Oh hell, sullivan's gonna go on about that for two years.

Posted by: LC LaWedgie at November 06, 2012 04:18 PM (rzTDZ)

274 "Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 04:14 PM (Dll6b)"

Another NE FL Moron, and in St. Johns with me. Where did you vote?

Posted by: Burn the Witch at November 06, 2012 04:18 PM (uD2fR)

275 I'm glad Drudge took down weepy 0bama pic- am sick of that man's face and voice


Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:10 PM (8sCoq)

Amen to that!

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 06, 2012 04:18 PM (qEkGZ)

276 At 11 a.m. today, representatives from the consortium of news organizations that sponsor the National Election Pool will enter a “quarantine room,” where they’ll look at data gathered via exit polls, Michael Calderone reports.

Six hours later, staffers will be permitted to start sending data to their respective news organizations, while additional exit polls, especially on the West Coast, keep coming in.

~~~~~~~\\

So, in another hour or two, they will be leaking the exit polls.

Posted by: Walkers! at November 06, 2012 04:18 PM (C4dFv)

277 Disgraced ex-mayor Don Williamson of Flint, MI has apparently pushed the envelope on gall. He has erected an 8.5ft statue of himself on his front lawn with the phrase "Success is the best revenge" stamped on it.

So is this where JEF/TFG/Won stole his 'revenge' idea?

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:18 PM (SkUim)

278 yes, ORCA app had crashed by 1530 hours EDT


no problemo---------------VOTE !!!

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 04:19 PM (Dll6b)

279 > Obama's not worried about this at all, since he just wants to win that coveted 57th state, Oiho.


and Pennsylchusetts may be in play

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:19 PM (8sCoq)

280 no banner on drudge and no pictures...
...whats going on? Has drudge gone dark?

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:20 PM (ovpNn)

281 503

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 04:20 PM (Dll6b)

282 early voting a week ago Sunday, St Johns County Library in Ponte Vedra Beach

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at November 06, 2012 04:20 PM (Dll6b)

283 Nate will be able to keep talking about polling thru Christmas if Ohio turns into a Florida-2000 scenario, with absentee and provisional ballot challenges out the {ahem}...

Mew

Posted by: acat at November 06, 2012 04:21 PM (4UkCP)

284 "He's worse. He's using science to peddle snake oil"

Hey! That's my gimmick!

Posted by: Michael Mann at November 06, 2012 04:21 PM (WMsq+)

285 For some reason I don't remember Drudge or anyone posting the Exit Polls in 2008 at 5pm, do I have that wrong?

Posted by: War69.com at November 06, 2012 04:21 PM (ayPhb)

286 No, you cannot start an intrade account in time for the election. I just tried.

In the US, you have to send them a check to deposit money to your account, since our betters in congress have decided that using a credit/debit card for the same purpose would be immoral. or some such bullshit.

anyone that has an account, WI is below $1.38 and OH is below $3.15 and . big money to be made there.

VA is at 4.23 for the low risk, low reward crowd.

Posted by: DC in Towson at November 06, 2012 04:21 PM (P47hr)

287 145 Mad Analyst, you missed the last step - Dipping.

Dippppppppping!

Posted by: Teran Solo at November 06, 2012 04:22 PM (Ufk8e)

288 Allen, are you coming with your wife today to distribute the cheesecake?

Assuming you're still around...

Possibly. You'd be subjected to all three kids, though (I count myself as one of the kids. I'm pretty sure my wife does, too).

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 04:22 PM (nUH8H)

289 Despite the hate, Nate is a genius because:
1)He knows his target market: Lefties that love to have their beliefs confirmed by scientific-like analytic-y goodness*. There is a large and profitable market for lefty propaganda clothed in humor/psuedo-science/high-brow artsy-ness
2) He has a scapegoat ready: inaccurate polls, black swan events, and so on. Cue the Blues Brothers "Not my fault!" video
3) His predictions are secondary. His main draw is the body of articles (with enticing titles!) he churns out, all with his target audience in mind. Thus, an article asking if Sandy hurt Romney, rather than one that postulates the impact on Obama.

The guy has a job for life, no matter how lousy his predictions are.

*Actual science and analysis may vary, or be missing entirely



Posted by: Sweet Lou at November 06, 2012 04:22 PM (8kUqK)

290 95 Silver is not stupid and he knows exactly what he's doing. He's been trying to set the narrative for the Dems and to an extent he's been successful.
Look how many trolls come running in here to announce that "Nate Silver says Obama's got this in the bag!".
He's not an analyst, he's playing for the other team.
Posted by: JackStraw at November 06, 2012 03:53 PM (TMB3S)


Nate Silver has done good work in sabermetrics and when it comes to baseball stats I trust him.

But his fundamental mistake is assuming that politics is similar to baseball and so the same statistical techniques will work just as well there.

The biggest difference of course is that baseball stats are definitive and reliable - you can be 99.99% sure that if the record says player X scored 2 runs in a game and singled 3x to get on base that that actually happened. Also a team's roster is fairly constant across a season and there are many games so you can build a pretty good estimate of a play/team's expected performance over time.

However almost none of this hold true for politics.

The only stats you have are election results from previous years and ongoing polls. But the polls themselves are not reliable since there's quite a bit of weighting adjustment that goes on. And as we know most polls are quite skewed towards a D+ results and so averaging them just gives you a highly skewed average.

Plus the people being polled are not the same from week to week and may not reflect at all the people who will actually show up at the polls. This is like predicting the performance of the Yankees in the playoffs based on a weekly random sample of Yankee fans, farm team players, and anyone who swears they'll be in the show in a few weeks.

Posted by: Mætenloch at November 06, 2012 04:23 PM (uyPho)

291 "The guy has a job for life, no matter how lousy his predictions are."

Word up.

Posted by: Paul Ehrlich at November 06, 2012 04:23 PM (WMsq+)

292 Drudge adds


EXCITEMENT BUILDS...

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:23 PM (8sCoq)

293 Giant (the grocery chain) is running a special on Hunt's pudding packs this week.

Buy eight packs, get 200 bonus gas points.

Omen?

Posted by: LibertarianJim at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (XMDuf)

294 Gee Yahoo! News could you be more of a hack? Some of the headlines.
----------------

If Mitt Romney loses, would it spark a GOP civil war?
-- Projecting much?

Voting is already a Mess in Florida.
-- Scream early and often?

If Romney wins, he would begin his first term as a baffling figure.
-- As opposed to Obama who has all his important records sealed.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (SkUim)

295 You guys are assuming Nate Silver is stupid

But what if he is just a partisan hack and was willfully manipulating hit results intentionally to help Obama?

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (ovpNn)

296 http://freebeacon.com/the-truth-monkey-votes/


****

Wait. Did they not make this clown take his mask off for identification?!

http://freebeacon.com/the-truth-monkey-votes/

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (piMMO)

297 Obama's revenge thing is revenge on white people, pure and simple. That's what he was talking about.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (r4wIV)

298 Here's your chance to spam the hell out of Michael Moore:
http://tinyurl.com/ak48jtj

SEND ME A NON-VOTER'S NUMBER at 810-522-8398 AND I WILL PERSONALLY CALL OR TEXT THEM

Tuesday, November 6th, 2012, 4:00 PM


There are only a few hours left until the polls close. Every minute is
precious at this point. I know many/most of you have convinced your one
non-voter to vote today. But I/we need a million of these, and I want no
non-voter left behind.

Is there someone you know/love who is
still on the fence and has not voted yet today? Would a personal call or
text from me help? Send me their cell number and I will spend the next
four hours calling or texting them to ask/plead that they go to the
polls right now.

You can text me their number at 810-522-8398. Obviously I won't be able to get to them all, but I will do as many as I can.

Time is running out. I'm already on the phone...

Posted by: Rod Munsch at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (2aB+q)

299 October 31, 2012RepublicanDemocratOtherR - DQuarterlyOct39.1%33.3%27.5%5.8%Rasmussen party ID from 6 days ago shows a R+5.8, yet we are acting like this is going to be a D+1-eleventy! Like a surfer, I'm looking at RAS numbers and I see the wave coming. Am I overlooking something?

Posted by: California Red at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (Ho3p+)

300 Well apparently it's not a Vig Vig per this quote from the Intrade site.

"With no vig, no juice, no artificial spread, intrade charges a small transaction charge per lot traded."


Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 06, 2012 04:12 PM


ok, thats odd, when i was just over there signing up, the site said no per transaction fee, just $5 a month, unless you dont have any money in your account on the 1st.

seems to me you should just cash out every month and re-deposit when you want to bet. if im wrong here, please let me know.

Posted by: DC in Towson at November 06, 2012 04:25 PM (P47hr)

301
How I imagine Joe Biden ended up in Ohio today:
Joe Biden: (answers phone at 3am): Hello it’s Joe, whadayaknow?
Barack Obama: Joe, it’s Barry . . .
JB: Oh hello there Mr. President …
BO: Joe
JB: …. I was just ….
BO: JOE!
JB: …..thinking what big F’n deal this campaign has been and I ….
BO: JOE, Shut the F* UP!
JB: oh sorry
BO: Joe, …ummmm ….ahhhh… our numbers are not where we want them in Ohio … ummm ….ahhh So I need you to go to Ohio to help get out the vote.
JB: Uh well, uh. Ok. Whaddeverya need. Oh, wait, I’m getting some new hair plugs at 9 so I guess I can go after that …
BO: No.
JB: It took me quite a while to get this appointment with this new doctor, I hear he’s quite good, he’s Pakistani you know ….
BO: NO! Joe, I need you to get your a** on a plane first thing. F** your hair plugs. (click)
JB: My wife’s hairdresser referred him. I think he voted for us last time too. Maybe I can get you his number and …. wait hello?

Posted by: Pete at November 06, 2012 04:25 PM (W2qJe)

302 But what if [Silver] is just a partisan hack and was willfully manipulating hit results intentionally to help Obama?

---

Gee, ya think?

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 06, 2012 04:25 PM (WMsq+)

303 #268 The ellipses don't bother me, but then I used to read a lot of Barbara Cartland romances.

My sister called Cartland the "dot-dot-dot writer."

Posted by: Miss Marple at November 06, 2012 04:26 PM (GoIUi)

304 Posted by: The Mad Analyst at November 06, 2012 03:58 PM (hZ4ZR)

You should have delurked sooner. I am making that tonight!

Posted by: elizabethe voted for Romney/Ryan at November 06, 2012 04:26 PM (TOBhV)

305 Am I overlooking something?

Only the admonitions:
1) Don't get cocky.
2) Stay on target.

Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 04:27 PM (MzQOZ)

306 302
But what if [Silver] is just a partisan hack and was willfully manipulating hit results intentionally to help Obama?

---

Gee, ya think?


Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 06, 2012 04:25 PM (WMsq+)

Well I am 98% sure...but that 2% is there to hedge so i can say there is a chance and i called it correct either way?

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:28 PM (ovpNn)

307 And trust Yahoo! News to accidentally find a nugget of truth. LOL

"If Obama wins, will he finally tell us his second term agenda?"

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:28 PM (SkUim)

308 >If Romney wins, he would begin his first term as a baffling figure.


what baffling

he's wicked smaht and has some nice fucken suits

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:29 PM (8sCoq)

309 Well I am 98% sure...but that 2% is there to hedge so i can say there is a chance and i called it correct either way?

---

Nah, that shit only works with leftists.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 06, 2012 04:29 PM (WMsq+)

310 Seriously.... I really couldn't, haven't, nor do I plan on giving half a shit what Nate Silver's "analysis" has said.

Posted by: skinnydipinacid at November 06, 2012 04:30 PM (dt2qx)

311 what's the weather over the target

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:30 PM (8sCoq)

312 I discount anecdotal reports of turnout on election day from partisans because I don't know how to quantify it and remove wishful thinking and selection bias from it, plus -- more important to me -- the answer will be known in a few hours anyway.

However, Bryan Preston is an exceptionally smart guy. It was a real loss to Hot Air when he left.

So if he's feeling good about Ohio, I'll accept that as a good open and hope for the best.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 04:30 PM (SKX2R)

313 I have never seen anything like the turnout we had today in my (deep red) precinct in SW VA. Lines and lines of bitter clingers, let me tell you.

This morning I was driving old and un-vehicled people from the hollows to their voting places. I was scheduled for my usual 2-hr run but ended up doing over six hours because of the extra people wanting to go and the wait times involved.

Virginians: SW VA is doing it's job. We're counting on the rest of you to do the best you can! (I am so encouraged by the VA people commenting here!)

Posted by: Margarita DeVille at November 06, 2012 04:30 PM (C8mVl)

314 But I'm a fuccess, dammit!

Posted by: nate silver's balls at November 06, 2012 04:31 PM (nkiQM)

315 Does anybody have a permalink to the prize picture by Chris Muir that will be awarded to a lucky Moron/Ette who volunteers today? The link in the original post goes to "Recent Uploads", and it's long since scrolled off the page at PhotoBucket.

I'm trying to earn it by staying home from work today and making calls via MittRomney.com. (I got assigned to Nevada, and I'm getting mostly wrong and disconnected numbers.) But if another Moron should be more deserving than I am (which is surely the case -- look at Fluffy working in VA, for example!) I sure would love to see it.

Posted by: Mary in LA at November 06, 2012 04:31 PM (NhijW)

316 Assuming you're still around...

Possibly. You'd be subjected to all three kids, though (I count myself as one of the kids. I'm pretty sure my wife does, too).


Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 06, 2012 04:22 PM (nUH8H)


Kids don't bother me. It's up to you two really...but it would be nice to meet the guy who may or may not have a blog.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 06, 2012 04:32 PM (GrtrJ)

317 yes, 313, I think the bitter clinging rust belt full of crazy religious people (amish, maybe evangelicals) becomes red like the south, from PA to OHIO and Indiana adn maybe michigan too

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 06, 2012 04:32 PM (QxSug)

318 When Obama Loses he will blame it on Bush...and that 4 years was not
enough to bring recovery to a country devestated by the policies of the past...

...and when he leaves office he will give a speech
taking credit for the Romney Recovery that will be coming in the next few months claiming Romney Didnt build that, I Me My administration we built it.

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:32 PM (ovpNn)

319 All Nate Silver has to do afterwords is tweak those parameters. See?!! It's perfect now!

Learn from those Climatologists a thing or two!

Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at November 06, 2012 04:32 PM (hlwt5)

320 Nate Silver....dead wrong on the election...and if angry liberals have anything to do with it...just plain dead.

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:34 PM (ovpNn)

321 It may have been said upthread, but Nate Silver swallows!

Posted by: Gregles at November 06, 2012 04:34 PM (BHM5V)

322 As an Ohio voter, I can say the state is turning 'em out big time today! I overheard a poll worker at my precinct place tell a voter that while they usually get 30-40 people, this year they had over 100. And the day's not over yet, folks....

BTW, Obana has no coattails in Ohio Local and state offices are heavily Republican. Granted I live in Butler County, which could officially change its name to "Republican County" without loss of credibility, but the Democrat machine in SW Obio is lame. Speaker Boehner ran unopposed, with only a write-in blank.

The Conservatives have turned out in force, and the Independents are making themselves noteworthy for a change too. Obaka is going to crash and burn today, and the LSM is going to be wondering "why".

Posted by: exdem13 at November 06, 2012 04:35 PM (1GunI)

323 Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:29 PM (8sCoq)
__
he's got a pretty hot bod for a man in his 60s too.

I know Ryan gets all the lust, but the elder statesman of the ticket ain't exactly chopped livah.

Posted by: kallisto at November 06, 2012 04:35 PM (jm/9g)

324 Chicago reporting traffic shutdowns as Presidential and Vice Presidential motorcades make their way into the city.
Hey, they're already voting for me. Who cares about turnout actually being able to drive to the polls?

Posted by: obama's forward planning at November 06, 2012 04:36 PM (nkiQM)

325 My eyes! Somethings once seen can never be unseen.

Again Yahoo! News leads the way in stupid headlines.
"Katy Perry performs for Obama in skintight 'ballot'"

And all Bill Clinton got was Monica under the desk.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:37 PM (SkUim)

326 "If Obama wins, will he finally tell us his second term agenda?"

He told us his agenda: revenge.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 06, 2012 04:37 PM (r4wIV)

327 I tried setting up an Intrade acct last week to take some money from the eurotards giving 3 and 4 to 1 odds on Mitt. But they will not accept a credit card from US address only bank transfer. F it.

Posted by: burnitup at November 06, 2012 04:38 PM (Znqj4)

328 325
My eyes! Somethings once seen can never be unseen.

Again Yahoo! News leads the way in stupid headlines.
"Katy Perry performs for Obama in skintight 'ballot'"

And all Bill Clinton got was Monica under the desk.


Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:37 PM (SkUim)

Wasted effort.
He only likes Reggie and WOokies.

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:38 PM (ovpNn)

329 >>> I have never seen anything like the turnout we had today in my (deep red) precinct in SW VA. Lines and lines of bitter clingers, let me tell you.

My previous comment notwithstanding, hoo-yah!

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 04:38 PM (SKX2R)

330 I wouldn't think that "Katy Perry" and "skintight" would normally be a recipe for eye-bleach ...

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 04:38 PM (w+lzM)

331 294
Gee Yahoo! News could you be more of a hack? Some of the headlines.
----------------

If Mitt Romney loses, would it spark a GOP civil war?
-- Projecting much?

Voting is already a Mess in Florida.
-- Scream early and often?

If Romney wins, he would begin his first term as a baffling figure.
-- As opposed to Obama who has all his important records sealed.


Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:24 PM (SkUim)
Speaking of stupid shit the media writes that has no basis in reality ...Does anyone remember after the 2000 election the pundits declaring Gore was the de facto nominee in 2004 because of the 2000 results. That prediction was so on target.

Posted by: Long Island at November 06, 2012 04:39 PM (EsJl1)

332 After Romney wins It would be funny to push the rumor that he wants to do this:

"We cannot continue to rely on our military in order to achieve the
national security objectives we've set. We've got to have a civilian
national security force that's just as powerful, just as strong, just as
well-funded."

Watch dem heads explode and say oops that was Barkies plan in 2010

Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 06, 2012 04:39 PM (tf9Ne)

333 Hey, they're already voting for me. Who cares about turnout actually being able to drive to the polls?

Serfs are supposed to be taking the bus anyway.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 06, 2012 04:40 PM (hO8IJ)

334 Waterhouse, she actually has two pro-Obama skintight outfits.

One is white where the box next to Barack Obama's name is blacked out.

Other is blue with FORWARD running up the right side so she looks like a misshapen Pepsi can.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 06, 2012 04:40 PM (SkUim)

335 *good omen

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 06, 2012 04:40 PM (SKX2R)

336 GIS offers more palatable Katy Perry skintight pics:

http://cdn.pickmeupnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Katy-Perry-Boobs-6.jpg

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 04:42 PM (w+lzM)

337
GOP Likes Early Signals from Adams, Arapahoe, Jefferson Counties
By Jim Geraghty
November 6, 2012 4:29 P.M. Comments0
A GOP source sends along this information about three key counties in Colorado

Adams County (lean D county) – strong Republican turnout based on morning data – on track to win since first time in 1984.

AB/EV margins will be hard for them to overcome today. Right now – it’s a virtual tie. E-day is 3696 D, 3549 R

Arapahoe (Swing County) – 4,860 Democrat & 5,271 Republican – Election Day so far.

Over 83% of the vote was AB/EV –75,653 Democrat & 75,812 Republican.

Jefferson County (Swing) – 78,738 Democrat & 85,378 Republican for AB/EV.

Waiting on Election Day.

Posted by: Evilpens at November 06, 2012 04:43 PM (ck76k)

338

I don't mean to stare, but my eyes just can't stop oversampling you.
#ElectionPickUpLines





Posted by: Jones in CO at November 06, 2012 04:45 PM (8sCoq)

339 Sure hope the dollar store here in my little town has jiffy pop and pudding.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 04:48 PM (cWpCn)

340 336
GIS offers more palatable Katy Perry skintight pics:
http://cdn.pickmeupnews.com/wp-content/
uploads/2010/06/Katy-Perry-Boobs-6.jpg


Dang. That pic is making me rethink my vote on Prop 35 (California "sex trafficking").

Posted by: wooga at November 06, 2012 04:49 PM (vjyZP)

341 The Mainstream Media made a HUGE mistake pushing all those D+Eleventy polls to make it look like a tie.

Instead of Energizing the Democrats, they lit a mother fucking FIRE under the ass of the republicans and independents.

May turn out the be THE miscalculation of the MSM Campaign even more than covering for obama.

Had they gone into the election with a 53 47 they may have lulled the R and I into complacency (he has it in the bag i can go do something else) and snuck Obama back in for another term.

also

That fat fuck Cocksucker Richardson is on fox trying to claim its looking great for Obama cause he has all the illegal alien votes in Nevada.

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:54 PM (ovpNn)

342 hey Hey HEY
Whatever happened to linking the boobeh pics in the nics?
It's for the chilllldren.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 04:56 PM (d4o2E)

343 Instead of Energizing the Democrats, they lit a mother fucking FIRE under the ass of the republicans and independents.

Because it's easy to understand 9% response rate + D+11 -> they're lying. And the non-stop m-f-lying ticks people the hell off even when they're normally "I vote for aliens" voters.

Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 04:59 PM (MzQOZ)

344 342
hey Hey HEY

Whatever happened to linking the boobeh pics in the nics?

It's for the chilllldren.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 06, 2012 04:56 PM (d4o2E)


Here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/7dt49ug

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 05:03 PM (ovpNn)

345 That fat f*** C***sucker Richardson is on fox trying
to claim its looking great for Obama cause he has all the illegal alien
votes in Nevada.


Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 06, 2012 04:54 PM (ovpNn)
Well, I'm calling Nevada voters right now to try to offset that. And I'm eating my way through an entire pint of banana cream pudding 'cause making cold calls stresses me out to the max. :-(
/sucking it up//making phone calls, I mean, not pudding///well, that too

Posted by: Mary in LA at November 06, 2012 05:04 PM (NhijW)

346 304 You can also cut the egg yolks in half and use a whole cup of half-and-half for some great hot chocolate. Bonus: splash in some rum.

Posted by: The Mad Analyst at November 06, 2012 05:05 PM (hZ4ZR)

347 Here you go:
http://tinyurl.com/7dt49ug


I think he needs a clickable link in the name -

Like so:

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 06, 2012 05:07 PM (w+lzM)

348 Seeing Nate Silver and his reputation go *POOF* in a big, blue glittery cloud tomorrow would be the most satisfying highlights of this, the nastiest and most disingenuously reported/polled elections of my lifetime.

Posted by: ObotNot at November 06, 2012 05:15 PM (/x3MP)

349 Seeing Nate Silver and his reputation go *POOF*

He won't though. "Oh, I only said 91%. That still means you can lose 9% of the time, duh."

The whole plan is snake oil with an intricate mechanism just to provide validity.

But:
I'm running around Seattle, thinking I'm going to spend every single conversation about politics for the decade blaming Nate Silver for today's results.

Posted by: Al at November 06, 2012 05:32 PM (MzQOZ)

350 So, I loaded all the data from the early voting and polls in Ohio into Excel. Here's what it says:

If Romney wins by 10% or more today, and the Early Vote is 35% of or less of the total, he wins over 90% of the time.

If he wins by only 9% today, and the Early Vote is only 32%, he needs to not lose the early vote by more than 59-40 [he has to do 19% or better spread at worst.]

If EV is 35%, and he wins today by 11%, and loses by 21% in early votes, he wins by 0.012% of the electorate. Basically about 700 people or 10 weeks of recounts.

That's the matrix we are looking at. If EV is ~32%/11% ED spread or he wins by ~12% today, he wins outside Recount Margin in all scenarios.
If EV is 31% or less and he wins by 9% or more today, he is almost assured of winning.

Posted by: Najdorf at November 06, 2012 05:58 PM (tAHf5)

351 Boy all of you guys disparaging Nate Silver look pretty foolish right about now. Turns out he picked the entire map correctly and that pollsters were correct in their party ID metrics. Maybe in the future you should leave the statistics to the pros..

Posted by: Billius at November 17, 2012 05:46 AM (KOMah)






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