Bellwether Areas in Ohio and New Hampshire Point to Romney Win

Lake County in Ohio tends to predict the statewide vote of Ohio pretty darn well.

As do a pair of towns, Epping and Milford, in New Hampshire.

The polls predict Romney wins.

In Lake County, Romney led Obama 47 percent to 43 percent with Independent Richard Duncan receiving 4 percent and Stewart Alexander (Socialist Party) receiving 1 percent, while 2 percent were undecided and 4 percent refused a response. Romney led 49 percent to 44 percent among those planning to cast ballots and led 43 percent to 41 percent among those who had already voted.

Duncan is a local candidate who isn't playing in the state generally. Unfortunately for our purposes he's a leftwing candidate. So, taking his votes away and giving them to Obama... it's a 47-47 tie in the state. (Assuming Duncan does not play much outside of Lake county.)

I wish there was time to start pushing Richard Duncan to Ohio liberals. Alas, a bit late for that.

Still. I think the "refused a response" people are more Romney than Obama. People know who the media and institutions want them to vote for.

What do I base this on? John Kerry's seven hour presidency in 2004. Exit polls showed him well ahead... but actual votes showed him losing. The most commonly given reason for this is the "Shy Tory" effect -- Tories, and American conservatives, understand all too well that their preferences are strongly disfavored by the institutions which transmit "mainstream" opinion (mainstream, that is, according to the institutions' own liberal lights), and are simply not as willing to publicly declare for the conservative as liberals are wiling to collect up their Social Credits for declaring for Obama.

As a general matter, I'm thinking "refused to answer" means "voting for Romney," by a 3-1 margin.

When you see, say, the FoxNews poll "split" at 46-46, you have to wonder if that 8% is truly undecided, or if they just don't want to share their opinion with a poll interviewer. Or if they're embarrassed, say, by their 2008 vote, and it's a bit of a sore point with them.

Many undecideds won't vote, but many will vote. Despite the fact that the Incumbent rule has loads of exceptions, I have to think in this election, it holds, and probably pretty strongly.

Look at all the reasons people would be more comfortable saying they're voting for Obama:

1. He's black, so if you vote for him, you're Not Racist. If you say you vote for Romney, you are Racist Until Proven Otherwise (and voting for Obama would be the proof you're looking for).

2. The media and smart set strongly favors him and are willing, ready, and eager to tell you how backwards the "bitter clingers" not voting for him are. As Andrew Breitbart was always arguing, the media have ginned up pure straight hatred of Tea Partiers and conservative-leaning voters.

They're not dumb. They feel the hate, and, being human, react to it. Defensively. By, say, not being very willing to discuss their vote.

3. Dave Chappelle. CONTENT WARNING (but funny): "White people do not like talking about their political affiliations." Actually I guess this is the same as 1 and 2, but Chappelle puts it in a funny way.

I mean, try to figure it from the other angle: Can anyone think of any reasons why an Obama leaner would be shy about proclaiming his inclination? I suppose their might be some embarrassment about supporting an incompetent, but... that seems to cut badly against Obama, too.

Meanwhile, in Epping and Milford, New Hampshire:

In Milford, Romney led Obama 51 percent to 46 percent and in Epping, a closer bellwether, Romney led Obama 49 percent to 47 percent.

Andrea Mitchell: "If Pennsylvania is in Play, Obviously This Is All Over For the President." Well, it is in play. Whether or not Romney wins it is a separate question.

Democrats say they expect to win Pennsylvania by bigger margins than Minnesota. Which makes me really wish Romney and Ryan (or just Ryan) would take a trip over to Minnesota tonight and lay down a marker there.

Posted by: Ace at 03:48 PM



Comments

1 First

Posted by: Methos at November 05, 2012 03:49 PM (hO9ad)

2 Second. (D+11!)

Posted by: LASue at November 05, 2012 03:50 PM (gjIQF)

3 Dipping Time Nancy!

Posted by: Ron Reagan the Elder at November 05, 2012 03:51 PM (f95vc)

4 maybe third

Posted by: mallfly at November 05, 2012 03:51 PM (bJm7W)

5 New Hampshire setting the pace!

Posted by: GuyfromNH at November 05, 2012 03:51 PM (kbOju)

6 DAMN THE POLLS! FULL SPEED AHEAD!!

Posted by: Admiral Mitt Romney at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (F6KtL)

7 Must have Red Meat...cant have my pudding if I dont eat my meat....

Posted by: Ron Reagan the Elder at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (f95vc)

8 Now I know what a crack addict feels like.

Keep the posts coming, Ace!

Posted by: LASue at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (gjIQF)

9 Not trying to be Eeyorey or anything, but can someone please tell me this guy is wrong, and why?

http://tinyurl.com/anhxram

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (WMsq+)

10 I'm telling you, the Romster is going to clean up in the suburban big city collar counties where Obama killed four years ago. I'm from Westchester NY, they voted hard for Obama, they're going to vote as hard for Romney. I expect similar results in parts of the country where it matters.


Landslide.

Posted by: mugiwara at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (JxXAE)

11 So is this gonna happen or what?

Posted by: Ron Reagan the Elder at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (f95vc)

12 Isn't Epping a London neighborhood?

I'm so confused.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (XkWWK)

13 D+11th

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (XrGnJ)

14 Last night ONT did not list the Top Commentors and Sock Puppeters for the Week. However, it was me and my D+11 abilities.

I am the King of all D+11 Commentors!

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (OWjjx)

15 Can we start sucking each other's dicks yet?

Posted by: Guy who asks can we start sucking each others dicks at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (F6KtL)

16 Somebody check that the silverware is still in the drawers. New tenants moving in soon.

Posted by: dogfish at November 05, 2012 03:53 PM (N2yhW)

17 well, at least when we realized that the country had elected perhaps the worst president in history, we had the ability to hang tough and hope to weather the storm of egomaniacal ineptitude. What are people like Greg going to do after tomorrow? Boost their testosterone levels by swallowing?

Posted by: mallfly at November 05, 2012 03:53 PM (bJm7W)

18 Not sure why Lake County is the bellwether in our state of Ohio....it's the smallest county in the state.

Posted by: bicentennialguy at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (A1qjF)

19 I'm starting to get nervous here.
Are VA and CO locked up?

Posted by: looking closely at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (PwGfd)

20 Epping, NH votes on


SUN-DAAAAAAAAAYYYYY!!!!

Posted by: fluffeneidas at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (5ggkP)

21 The most commonly given reason for this is the "Shy Tory" effect --


I'm thinking this election there will be more of the Fuck Yes I Voted Against That Idiotic Motherfucker response.


If you want to laugh and laugh and laugh, go read the whinging about how Kerry was totally robbed in 2004. I'd forgotten that there were those who are utterly convinced this is the case.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (VtjlW)

22 Can we start sucking each other's dicks yet?

YEAH! SEWIOUSWY!

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (5iuEW)

23 Thanks be to Allah for Fox News!

Roger Ailes trying his best to get back at the crowd at CBS, NBC, ABC, CNN and more, for giving Zero all that puffy air time for nothing.

The last two days have been packed with Romney.

Posted by: The littl shyning man at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (PH+2B)

24

Chapelle, one of the funniest guys, ever.

Posted by: 1 day at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (LpQbZ)

25 Can we start sucking each other's dicks yet?

You don't need a reason.....just 5 bucks for my services.

Posted by: Greg, the Best sucker of cock in the land (D+11) at November 05, 2012 03:55 PM (OWjjx)

26 Ace, you coming up to Boston?

Posted by: fluffeneidas at November 05, 2012 03:55 PM (5ggkP)

27 Damn him, I didn't even have a fucking say in that bet

Posted by: David Axelrod's Mustache at November 05, 2012 03:55 PM (F6KtL)

28 I stopped looking at bellwethers ages ago. Now I'm just lookin' at hot bitchez for my cabinet.

Posted by: R-Money at November 05, 2012 03:55 PM (a0nis)

29 Willard Mittens Romney.

Mmmmmm mmmmmm mmmmm.

Posted by: Filly at November 05, 2012 03:55 PM (hf3Lq)

30 Get up and vote. Get up and vote. Drive somebody to the polls. Make sure your friends vote. Get up and vote.

Posted by: joncelli, reduced to platitudes at November 05, 2012 03:56 PM (RD7QR)

31 Isn't Epping a London neighborhood?

I'm so confused.



No, no, you're thinking Fapping on Bonerwoods.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 03:56 PM (VtjlW)

32 Woooohooooooo, I'm safe baby!

Posted by: Michael Medved's Mustache at November 05, 2012 03:56 PM (F6KtL)

33 first link does not work

Posted by: working_man at November 05, 2012 03:56 PM (IGBp1)

34 Sure, I can think of other reasons. I have a lot of black nieces and nephews who would be shocked to hear I was voting for Romney. All but two of my 80 friends on FB are liberals-- and liberals can no longer be trusted to keep speaking to you if you suddenly contradict their orthodoxy. I thought in '08 that "progressivism" was a new theology-- now I see it's a Jesuitical one, complete with Inquisition. I can also tell you that I'm not a remorseful Obama voter-- I saw through him in '08, too.

Posted by: Kegger at November 05, 2012 03:57 PM (YYhV/)

35 "I mean, try to figure it from the other angle: Can anyone think of any
reasons why an Obama leaner would be shy about proclaiming his
inclination? I suppose their might be some embarrassment about
supporting an incompetent, but... that seems to cut badly against Obama,
too."

Yeah, I mean, what could go wrong? Clearly Obama's heart is in the right place.

Posted by: Kulak who 'leaned' toward Communism at November 05, 2012 03:57 PM (P2Ufm)

36 Looks like there's a new meme waiting to happen.

"Im Mitt Romney, BITCH~!"

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at November 05, 2012 03:57 PM (e0xKF)

37 31 No, no, you're thinking Fapping on Bonerwoods.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 03:56 PM (VtjlW)


Mmmmm-yaysssssssssssss.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at November 05, 2012 03:57 PM (XkWWK)

38
Ace: ..."Look at all the reasons people would be more comfortable saying they're voting for Obama:"

Yeah, 1, 2, and 3....but also:

4. They don't want Union Goons coming to their house and killing their pets.

5. They don't want armed Drones following them around, targeting them and their families.

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 03:57 PM (ICEh3)

39
When Axelrod said 'Obama was speaking from his loins' I cringed, cause I would have worded it better.

Posted by: Stephanie Cuntter at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (F6KtL)

40 can't wait to see the uproar if lack of voting facilities in parts of NYC costs Gillibrand the senate seat...

Posted by: mallfly at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (bJm7W)

41 I've got something pointing to a Romney win.

You know where it is.

Posted by: eleven at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (KXm42)

42 Shit just got real.

We got this.

Posted by: DeusExMachina at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (6RTwM)

43 What do I base this on? John Kerry's seven hour presidency in 2004.

____________

That almost lasted longer than Bob Dole's- "side effect."

Posted by: Bob Dole- at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (r2PLg)

44 Please explain, what does JEF mean? Also, where do I buy pudding in bulk?

Posted by: Travis at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (/gUgY)

45 I should probably stay off the computer because I'm going bonkers... I just have to keep checking looking for a good sign. Being here makes me feel better. Do not go to the Alphabet networks!

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (9+ccr)

46 19. Yes.

Posted by: LASue at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (gjIQF)

47 I'm starting to get nervous here. Are VA and CO locked up?
Posted by: looking closely at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (PwGfd)
-------------------------------------------

Yes for VA. I'm in Prince William County, one of the northern VA purple "bellweather"counties. There are tons more RR signs in my neighborhood than Obama- not the case 4 years ago. Downstate VA will come out to vote for RR in droves, unlike in 2008 when many stayed home. Also, the Hampton Roads (big Dem area)area will not go for Obama like it did in 2008. The non-federal economy still sucks down there, and military contractors are pissed off and/or worried about their future.

Sure, some sorry polls make it look like the SCOAMF is ahead, but in reality, it will be Romney by 2.5%.

Posted by: Virginia SoCon at November 05, 2012 03:59 PM (+/C3g)

48

You know TFG is so deeply into himself and his messianic complex, that he might just continue thinking he's potus in Jan, and keep showing up at the WH...

Posted by: 1 day at November 05, 2012 03:59 PM (LpQbZ)

49 One day -- tomorrow, do what you gotta do......and then some.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 05, 2012 03:59 PM (OWjjx)

50 Pudding. MMmmmmmm.

Posted by: Homer at November 05, 2012 03:59 PM (71LDo)

51 Is Obama siphoning off more of the Socialist Party vote than usual in Ohio? Looks to me like he's killing Alexander's chances.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (OJLOy)

52 Ace

The first--

"Romney wins" link--it's dead Jim.

Posted by: Bob Dole- at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (r2PLg)

53 Everyone is so cranky today!Except forthe Secret Service.

Posted by: Malia in DC at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (ypzqs)

54 Well, my blog is about to push over 4000 views today. Double two days ago.

On Wednesday I predict 4.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (JxIkO)

55 >>Not trying to be Eeyorey or anything, but can someone please tell me this guy is wrong, and why?

Klein has been against Romney since Day 1. He was the go to guy when conservative bloggers *cough* wanted a hit piece on Romney during the primary.

He has a track record of being spectacularly wrong.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (TMB3S)

56 Getting a premature schadenboner here...

Posted by: Insomniac at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (DrWcr)

57 So the suffolk poll folks managed to find the HQ of the Ohio Socialists?

Posted by: Doc at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (RkH4v)

58 Jug Eared Fuck. Sam's Club.

Posted by: Sheep Smith at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (NIZHJ)

59 Has the Secret Service been keeping tabs on Michael Moore and his crony gangsters? Cause I'm expecting him to bum rush the R-R campaign at any moment. Any moment, now.

Posted by: Fritz at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (/ZZCn)

60 Wish I was in play, Andrea...

Posted by: Alan Greenspan at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (F6KtL)

61
It is interesting that NH isn't the last place Mitt will be on Tuesday.

Posted by: Soothsayer at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (jUytm)

62 If exit polled, I'm going to lie. If polled today, I'm going to lie. If more OFA zombies show up today, I'm going to lie.


Posted by: @PurpAv at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (Rjsup)

63 I shouldn't say this, but where are the trolls?

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (9+ccr)

64
44Please explain, what does JEF mean?

Jug Eared F*ck

TFG = That F'king Guy

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 04:02 PM (ICEh3)

65 18 Not sure why Lake County is the bellwether in our state of Ohio....it's the smallest county in the state.
Posted by: bicentennialguy at November 05, 2012 03:54 PM (A1qjF)

___________________


Historically it tracks pretty well with Hamilton County.

Posted by: Bob Dole- at November 05, 2012 04:02 PM (r2PLg)

66 I want to believe. I'll be doing my part, and I have one fence-sitter friend I've been gently but very consistently nudging since the summer. But... gah, I worry. Either way, I plan on drinking a lot tomorrow night.

Posted by: shillelagh at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (hRzu2)

67 http://tinyurl.com/anhxram
Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 03:52 PM (WMsq+)

He's still assuming averaging polls makes any sense.

If the polls are simply wrong, this argument holds no water.

It's a case, if not weak. I'm still optimistic.

Posted by: HoboJerky, profit of DOOM! at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (fCMdQ)

68 We're charging up that hill, muthafucker!! Who's joining us???

Posted by: New Hampshire at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (F6KtL)

69 It's all about turnout. You gotta get people to turn out at the polls, vote for your guy, then you win.

Posted by: John Madden at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (60GaT)

70 I believe the "Shy Tory/ Republican" effect is true. (And IMO this year the "shy indie/Dem voting Romney" will be big.)

This is another reason (beyond the obvious one) I really hope they've straightened out (thoroughly checked and mechanically "recalibrated") those voting machines that registered "Obama" when people voted "Romney."

Because, on the one hand, it's true if you're careful to double-check, you can go to whoever is supervising the polling place to make sure your vote is entered correctly. And we should encourage all people to double-check and verify.

But, on the other hand, the "shy" voter is much less likely to speak up if something goes wrong with their vote. They're counting on the privacy of the voting booth. If they have to insist out loud (within earshot of other people around, maybe including their own friends/family/acquaintances) that their vote for Romney was registered incorrectly... the shyest of them might not say anything at all, and just let that (incorrect) vote go.

Posted by: lael at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (tUcg9)

71 I thought Milford was the prep school the Bluth boys attended.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (w+lzM)

72 I shouldn't say this, but where are the trolls?
Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (9+ccr)

no checky no worky, pretty obvi, right?

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (Dnbau)

73
I love Team Obama's confidence. Keep talkin, jerkoffs.

You're dampening your own turnout!

Posted by: Soothsayer at November 05, 2012 04:04 PM (jUytm)

74
The catholics are gonna drop a bomb on Obenghazi. Mass was interesting, pretty much told everybody to vote for Mitt by saying 'these are our values".

10,000 catholic voter guides requested in 08 verses 1.1 milliion in 12.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 04:04 PM (PHb2k)

75 48 hours from now: The revolution is over, Lebowski. The bums lost!

Posted by: WalrusRex at November 05, 2012 04:04 PM (/xG0P)

76 if I was looking for advice on whether Pennsylvania or Minnesota were more winnable for Romney, the last people I would listen to would be Democrats.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 04:05 PM (2zM0P)

77 Pat Caddell on FNC

Posted by: Methos at November 05, 2012 04:05 PM (hO9ad)

78
If exit polled, I'm going to lie. If polled today, I'm going to lie.
Posted by: @PurpAv


Aren't exit polls what the MFM uses to make 'calls'?

Seems like that's not a good idea.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at November 05, 2012 04:05 PM (jo069)

79 I'd let the pudding cool before I started dipping.

I suspect this will be a long night. I am not convinced anybody has the crystal ball on this one.

The media will not give up without a fight. Accordingly they will drag it out and look for reasons any Romney win can be questioned- even if only to cast a shadow on his legitimacy they can milk for four years.

One thing will win this race: turnout.

Posted by: marcus at November 05, 2012 04:05 PM (GGCsk)

80
62If exit polled, I'm going to lie. If polled today, I'm going to lie. If more OFA zombies show up today, I'm going to lie.

------------

I don't blame you one bit, PurpAv.
If your area is like I picture it in my head...it would be perilous for you to be honest.
Basic survival comes first.

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 04:05 PM (ICEh3)

81 72
I shouldn't say this, but where are the trolls?

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 04:01 PM (9+ccr)



no checky no worky, pretty obvi, right?

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 04:03 PM (Dnbau)
=================which is why they have their hands full, if you get my drift...

Posted by: mallfly at November 05, 2012 04:06 PM (bJm7W)

82 44Please explain, what does JEF mean?

Jug Eared F*ck

TFG = That F'king Guy

Morons helping morons! It's the American Way. Like it used to be. Like it can be again. I'm Mitt Romney and I approve this ad.

Posted by: Mitt at November 05, 2012 04:06 PM (71LDo)

83 Arghghghghg I was arguing with some liberals and they keep touting Nate Silver. Honestly, I dont follow Silver and heard he was dead on in 2008, so I really dont know what to say to them regarding Silver.

Posted by: DoomedNoLonger at November 05, 2012 04:06 PM (Gr8DF)

84 Sshawing!

http://tinyurl.com/at4uhpq

Posted by: JackStraw at November 05, 2012 04:07 PM (TMB3S)

85
Well, they can't be everywhere, but PA hasn't been hit too hard and has more EV's than MN.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 04:07 PM (PHb2k)

86 He has a track record of being spectacularly wrong.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 05, 2012 04:00 PM (TMB3S)
Awesome, thanks for that.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 04:07 PM (WMsq+)

87 JEF is Jug Eared Fapper (I cleaned it up) TFG is That Fapping Guy...

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at November 05, 2012 04:07 PM (kXoT0)

88 I think that I shall never see,
A prezy as dumb as the one in DC,
And if per chance that F!er get's re-elected,
I have my painless exit strategy already selected ...

Posted by: Vorgon Master Poet at November 05, 2012 04:07 PM (/OhbZ)

89 Posted by: DoomedNoLonger at November 05, 2012 04:06 PM (Gr8DF)

Because Obama Campaign fed him their Internal polling & who didn't predict that McLame would lose ??

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 04:07 PM (ck76k)

90 This election will be won by the candidate who gets the most votes.

Posted by: John Madden at November 05, 2012 04:08 PM (8/bPb)

91 40 can't wait to see the uproar if lack of voting facilities in parts of NYC costs Gillibrand the senate seat...
Posted by: mallfly at November 05, 2012 03:58 PM (bJm7W)



I am SO hoping this happens, but I don't think Wendy Long, the Republican candidate, is going to beat Gillibrand.

Schumer got his ass reamed yesterday by Staten Islanders but he's not up for reelection until 2014. Here's hoping whoever goes up against him brings Sandy up.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at November 05, 2012 04:09 PM (XkWWK)

92 I think the trolls absence is the single biggest indicator that they were paid Axelrod drones

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 04:09 PM (Dnbau)

93 While I'd love to see Romney here in MN tonight, Ryan was just here yesterday with a crowd of about 10k. That kinda is laying down a marker. I'm hopeful but I don't have a lot of faith in most of these puddin' headed motherfuckers to vote the right way.

Posted by: DanInMN at November 05, 2012 04:09 PM (IV7St)

94 This aint over yet.

Posted by: The Fat Lady at November 05, 2012 04:09 PM (NIZHJ)

95

Something I had been wondering about...was if Barky could somehow decree that the election be 'extended' beyond tomorrow.
You know, because of the hurricane disaster.

Judge Napolitano said earlier, that this cannot happen.
That while States control the most of the election rules in their own states...the deadline for cutting off the voting, is in the Constitution.

So it would take a Constitutional Amendment to extend the voting past midnight, tomorrow night.

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 04:10 PM (ICEh3)

96 BELLWEATHER!~!!!!!!!

Posted by: The Guy Who Likes To Scream and Misspell Bellwhether at November 05, 2012 04:10 PM (F/z7g)

97 78 If exit polled, I'm going to lie. If polled today, I'm going to lie.Posted by: @PurpAvAren't exit polls what the MFM uses to make 'calls'?Seems like that's not a good idea.
Posted by: weft cut-loop at November 05, 2012 04:05 PM (jo069)
-----------------------------------------------

It depends on how you lie. 1) Claim you're as Native American as Elizabeth Warren, especially if it's true(to screw up their minority numbers and to give them conniptions about ethnic identity). 2) Say you voted for Barky in 2008, even though you didn't. 3) Tell truth about voting Romney, unless you're in an ultra-blue state, and go for the green/communist/what-have-you party- anything to make them think that Barry's lost his base.

Bottom line, you can lie, mess up their numbers, and yet still help the cause.

Posted by: Virginia SoCon at November 05, 2012 04:10 PM (+/C3g)

98
The exit poll rumors will start about noon EST with the MFM. It is going to be a SuperStorm of "its a democrat wave!!!eleventy!!!!". We all know this.

Be on your social networks countering with some excellent snark and mocking.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 04:11 PM (PHb2k)

99 "so I really dont know what to say to them regarding Silver."

He was few the Obama internals in 2008

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 04:11 PM (JxIkO)

100 fed them

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 04:11 PM (JxIkO)

101 Mmmmmm I can taste the cheesecake now. It tastes like...the tears of a bunch of liberal fools who just lost their fucking minds. Delicious.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 05, 2012 04:11 PM (GrtrJ)

102
Here's another: You're smart, you're black, you're unemployed and it's become clear that all you need to get back to work is to help unspring all that pent-up liquidity by voting against the miserable neomarxist who's to blame, but you're sure as shit not going to say so to anyone, even the people closest to you. The blacks who get cornered by the exit pollers are going to go 97 percent for Obama; the3 percent who say Romney are going to be looking around before they say it; 10-15 percent are going to be lying. The secret never to be known is that he's only going to get around 85 percent of the black vote this time around.
Land. Fucking. Slide.

Posted by: letitbeme at November 05, 2012 04:11 PM (i5FjP)

103 This election will be won by the candidate who gets the most votes.
Posted by: John Madden at November 05, 2012 04:08 PM (8/bPb)

not necessarily

Posted by: george w bush at November 05, 2012 04:12 PM (2zM0P)

104 I need a working link on that Lake County story. That's my part of the world.

Posted by: SCFOAMF returns at November 05, 2012 04:12 PM (3oPjL)

105
ps - exit polls can't possibly work in states that have early voting.

Even if they say Romney Sweep (ha that was funny), do not believe them.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 04:13 PM (PHb2k)

106 Where have all the trolls gone, long time passing?
Where have all the trolls gone, long time ago?
Boys have dicked them, everyone,
When will they ever learn?

Posted by: peter, paul and GERG! at November 05, 2012 04:15 PM (nkiQM)

107 Well in my little neck of the woods I suspect turn out will be horrible. Long gas lines and so many people without power. Voting is not a priority at the moment. (BTW Cuomo really stepped in it with the free gas move.) However there is mountain of flotsam or jetsam I am not willing to crawl over to vote.

Posted by: Long Island at November 05, 2012 04:15 PM (EsJl1)

108 Posted by: george w bush at November 05, 2012 04:12 PM (2zM0P)

The 2000 popular vote had a less than 1/2 of 1% difference, a tie.

Posted by: John Madden at November 05, 2012 04:15 PM (8/bPb)

109
PA is lost - move on. VA, FL, NC is a win. OH is maybe. If Romney loses Ohio, then, he needs either WI or CO. The early voting results to not bode well. Brace yourself, it's going to be a bumpy ride tomorrow. And it may not be a soft landing. Keep up hope.

Posted by: LiberTea at November 05, 2012 04:16 PM (XC3Mz)

110 I went to Richard Duncan's website. He's as much a righty as a lefty. He's pro-"stimulus", but he would only allow documented US citizens to work on the projects. He's also pro-life and touts his Christianity.

Posted by: buzz at November 05, 2012 04:18 PM (i27M5)

111 70 But, on the other hand, the "shy" voter is much less likelytospeak upifsomething goeswrong with their vote. They're counting on the privacy of the voting booth. If they have to insist out loud (within earshot of other people around, maybe including their own friends/family/acquaintances) that their vote for Romney was registered incorrectly... the shyest of them might not say anything at all, and just let that (incorrect) vote go.

I will be screaming like a short changed Dominican hooker if my voting machine malfunctions.

Posted by: rickb223 at November 05, 2012 04:19 PM (4WLcl)

112
I can't wait to vote tomorrow. I was suppose to go shopping today for all my election day goodies, but I woke up sick. So I've been in bed all day clicking away on my computer and driving myself crazy. Praying I wake up feeling better tomorrow, won't matter though I'll vote sick or not, even if I have to go in my jammies.

Such a weird election, I'll be so glad when it's over. It seems like a no brainer to me, and that Romney should be ahead by 20 points, but looks like a large group of our country is stupid. We have a lot of work to do to change things around, starting with the sick indoctrination at our schools.

Posted by: spypeach at November 05, 2012 04:20 PM (pwTow)

113
Anyone remember Mitt's speech in 2008 when he suspended his campaign?

With steely resolve Mitt said, "I don't like to lose."

Ifhe didn't think he could do it, he'd quit already. He's not doing this for the fun of it. Mitt is in it to win it. And I believe he'll win. Gov Perry seems like a nice chap but he's not going to win the nomination.

Posted by: soothsayer at September 08, 2011



He blew almost $50M last time around. He's not the
type to waste money to satisfy his ego. If he didn't think he could win, he wouldn't be doing it again.

So that means he either knows what he's doing or he's a fool.

Posted by: soothsayer at September 08, 2011 06:15 PM

Posted by: Soothsayer likes roaming around the AoS archives at November 05, 2012 04:20 PM (jUytm)

114
107Well in my little neck of the woods I suspect turn out will be horrible. Long gas lines and so many people without power. Voting is not a priority at the moment. (BTW Cuomo really stepped in it with the free gas move.) However there is mountain of flotsam or jetsam I am not willing to crawl over to vote.

Posted by: Long Island at November 05, 2012 04:15 PM (EsJl1)

----------

Stay safe.
I don't blame you a bit for hunkering down right now, and not venturing out...unless you're in an area that's sorta safe.

And yeah...that 'Free Gas' thing was a recipe for disaster.
Have their been any more riots over it?
The media reports are practically nonexistant.

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 04:20 PM (ICEh3)

115 Mitt, Wheatie, and Sherry, thanks for explaining the acronyms. I've been wondering for a long while. Can't wait to see the misery on the face of JEF tomorrow. Not to mention Mrs. JEF.

Posted by: Travis at November 05, 2012 04:20 PM (/gUgY)

116 November 3, 1980 AP headline:
Carter/ Reagan race too close to call, polls say.

Damn the polls! Full steam ahead...VOTE!!!

Posted by: Jmel at November 05, 2012 04:21 PM (c+D8V)

117
If Mitt thought he was wasting his time in PA or Cleveland, he wouldn't go.

And Mitt is no gambler, either. He's not "taking a shot" at these places.

Posted by: Soothsayer at November 05, 2012 04:22 PM (jUytm)

118 Milford's in Hillsborough county in NH, which is also home to Manchester and Nashua, our biggest cities. I can see it being a bellweather for the state, but not the region. If Manchester and Nashua go for Romney, I'll eat my hat.

(ha ha, I don't have to follow through on this bet b/c I don't own a hat!)

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 04:23 PM (4df7R)

119 Ace writes - "Which makes me really wish Romney and Ryan (or just Ryan) would take a
trip over to Minnesota tonight and lay down a marker there."

I was at the Sun Country airport hangar with 9000 other Minnesotas for Ryan's visit yesterday -- maybe you missed it ;o) but he's already fulfilled your wish. Reince Prebus and Josh Romney are in Burnsville, MN today. MN is definitely in play!

Posted by: Soccer Mom at November 05, 2012 04:25 PM (v8VBA)

120 My neighbor just came and knocked on my door to tell me Obama is going to win tomorrow. I told her she's going to be very surprised.

Posted by: bicentennialguy at November 05, 2012 04:25 PM (A1qjF)

121 IntRadE, wIngNuTz!1!111!!111!11111!!!111!

CoCk!1111!1!!11111!1111!!!

Posted by: GAAAARRRRGGGHHHHH at November 05, 2012 04:26 PM (WMsq+)

122 ace,

I've been trying to tell you that NH is in the bag. I live just south of Epping (do most of my shopping there since that is the nearest Lowes, Walmart and Market Basket). The Romney and Ovide signs are everywhere and they out number Obama and Hassan signs by at least by 5 to 1 in the area. That doesn't mean the democrats aren't here, just that they are completely depressed. They know it's over and have given up.

Posted by: Ken in NH at November 05, 2012 04:27 PM (9UEu0)

123 I still believe in Nevada. The republicans for House and Senate on the ticket are up 5 to 7 points I the polls. So how do people vote republican for House and Senate and still vote for Obama? One other thing I noticed; there isnít a single union sign at any of Obamaís rallies. That is not little. Remember the Obama phone woman? She was hired by the Union to protest. Wait, what? A union in the heart of Cleveland canít get 100 guys from the hall to show up to a protest? Same thing in NevadaÖ.

Posted by: fingers crossed in Nevada at November 05, 2012 04:28 PM (uJK1E)

124
What I'd like to see late Tuesday night:

Ace makes post: Is This Something?

and below the fold is a pic of a very sad Obama

Posted by: Soothsayer at November 05, 2012 04:32 PM (jUytm)

125 ONE MORE DAY!

AND THAT MOTHER FUCKING SCOAMF GETS RELEGATED TO THE DUSTBIN OF FAILED PRESIDENT HISTORY!

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 04:33 PM (ovpNn)

126
My neighbor just came and knocked on my door to tell me Obama is going to win tomorrow.

a taunting neighbor?

Posted by: Soothsayer at November 05, 2012 04:33 PM (jUytm)

127 Ryan was in Minneapolis on Sunday and drew 6,500 people. Granted that might have been another play for the western Wisconsin media market but they have been in Minnesota.

Posted by: Colonel Pooteh at November 05, 2012 04:35 PM (zpEAp)

128 Wife and I spen the weekend on cape cod, and I must say there were just as many Romney signs if not more than Obama. CAPE COD!

Posted by: Hawker Flyer at November 05, 2012 04:35 PM (2z0mM)

129 Winning Minnesota is the biggest stretch of all. Maybe - MAYbe - if T-Paw was on the ticket. The veep choice was all about carrying FL, MN, WI or OH. Romney figured he could get OH and FL anyway without a hometown running mate. Between WI and MN, he had a better chance of carrying WI since there is a true conservative Gov withwidespread popular support. Any attempt at MN is window dressing and wishful thinking, IMO. If MN mattered, he would be there. Makes me wonder why he's not in CO like crazy, but he should know best.

Posted by: LiberTea at November 05, 2012 04:36 PM (XC3Mz)

130 >MN is definitely in play!

I wish I had your optimism.....I guess it comes from working in the North Loop. I see lots of "Julias." I work with one who is actually named Julia....been working on her, but I don't think I got her over the line.

Posted by: DanInMN at November 05, 2012 04:38 PM (XqeyF)

131 I was in Lake County on business from Sunday 10/21 until Friday 10/26.
I saw many Romney bumperstickers and signs but only one Obama bumersticker and no house signs.
I did meet some women in a bar, even sent one a drink, but when she came over she had a Obama pin on. She was a union member and had just come from a phone bank. When I told her that I was a Republican she volunteered "That's a deal breaker."

Boo hoo.

Posted by: Whitehall at November 05, 2012 04:54 PM (FmPSC)

132 Andrea Mitchell: "If Pennsylvania is in Play, Obviously This Is All Over For the President."





Let's hope so hag. I can't wait for the MFM meltdown when their commie hero loses

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 05, 2012 04:56 PM (1Jaio)

133 I definitely think Nevada is more in play than Minnesota, Nevada has a more "center-right" history and also has a large LDS presence that unfortunately cast a lot of ballots to their fellow Mormon Harry Reid in 2010.

Also, the private sector unions in Nevada are strong, but are not going to be as monolithic in their support of Obama as the public sector unions. Those in the private sector are vulnerable to Obama's economy. Most people in those situations pay lip service to what the company union is telling them but actually vote their conscience in the voting booth.


Posted by: McAdams at November 05, 2012 04:57 PM (duk8F)

134
If Romney loses OH,assuming he wins NC, VA and FL, he MUST win either CO or WI. Without either of those two, Nevada won't matter.It's very simple, really.

Posted by: LiberTea at November 05, 2012 05:02 PM (XC3Mz)

135 ACE: "Which makes me really wish Romney and Ryan (or just Ryan) would take a trip over to Minnesota tonight and lay down a marker there."

WISH ALREADY GRANTED: http://preview.tinyurl.com/d3d7cm7

(H/T TO NICE DEB)

Posted by: Mr. Right at November 05, 2012 05:02 PM (t66/S)

136 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at November 05, 2012 05:03 PM (9XBK2)

137 Pick up your skirts Ace. You're tiresome.

Posted by: Zombie Eckert at November 05, 2012 05:04 PM (R7H3g)

138 Hubby and I are watching Romero's Night of the Living Dead aka Obama Recruitment Video.

Posted by: Jmel at November 05, 2012 05:32 PM (c+D8V)

139
I noticed that Ann Coulter has weighed in that Illinois is in play.

Someone needs to close the coffin on the talking corpse.

Posted by: LiberTea at November 05, 2012 05:35 PM (XC3Mz)

140 If Romney wins my D will be +11.

Posted by: Walsingham at November 05, 2012 06:37 PM (d8B+I)






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