Final Gallup To Show Dead Heat, Advantage Romney, 49-48

Alas, this of course shows a market erosion of Romney's 5 point lead.

But a lead's a lead.

There are no details yet because this is a pre-release leak of the topline results, which were supposed to be released at 1 pm but aren't out yet.

If I had any influence with anyone running ads, I'd cut a quick ad showing Obama jetting off to Vegas after Benghazi, followed by Obama jetting off to Vegas (or whichever city) after his New Jersey photo-op.

And I'd run some footage of the desperation in New Jersey, Lower Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island.

I guess the question comes down to: If the polls are tied, is it likelier they are understating the liberal Democrat incumbent's support, or that they are understating the conservative Republican challenger's support? I think the latter. There is no social preference to say you support Romney, and quite a bit to pick up the phone and blab that you're Still Not a Racist, which you are proving by voting for the incompetent.

It also comes down to turnout. If you haven't volunteered yet to phone from home or, even better, walk some neighborhoods or do strike lists at the polling places*, there is still time.

It's all going to come down to mobilization and enthusiasm.


Via @benk84.

* Strike Lists, Ben tells me, are just lists of Republican voters who have voted. You collect the list, and relay it back to headquarters. That way, the campaign knows whose door to knock on and ask, "Dude, are you going to get your ass to the polls or not?" It's critical election day intelligence.

Posted by: Ace at 12:58 PM



Comments

1 I blame Chris Christie.

Posted by: Slublog at November 05, 2012 12:59 PM (0nqdj)

2 No. Romney's lead is solid. The tracking poll only takes into account 4 days and two of them were weekend days
We're fine.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 12:59 PM (I2LwF)

3 I still say actual will be R 53- O 44- others 3

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at November 05, 2012 01:00 PM (zLp5I)

4 Cannot discount the inherent advantage the media has given O for his 'excellent' leadership during Sandy...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:00 PM (bgzAd)

5 Question is, is the erosion due to a Sandy bump that's peaked for Obama, or is it momentum that is still underway? I'd feel much more comfortable with a little cushion for Romney.

Posted by: ExcitableNJBoy at November 05, 2012 01:00 PM (xvtYZ)

6 I was hoping that Christie would later call a presser and say that the JEF's promises were empty and his administration is a failure on Sandy. As it is. But alas, the fat fuck has selfishly cast his lots.

Posted by: eureka! at November 05, 2012 01:01 PM (UL+ny)

7 2% of any electorate goes third party or other. It's like a law of physics.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:01 PM (I2LwF)

8 1
I blame Chris Christie.


Posted by: Slublog at November 05, 2012 12:59 PM (0nqdj)

Same here. Ace, are you still a fan of this guy?

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:01 PM (UypUQ)

9 So Romney to campaign in Ohio tomorrow.

I'm getting a good feeling about this.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 01:01 PM (piMMO)

10 No landslide basically.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 05, 2012 01:01 PM (WXV2v)

11 dave in fla: i got an email from the George Allen political director sent to all their coordinators. it said that the NBC PPP polls for Va that show Kaine ahead are wrong. It goes on to say that their pollster, Mr. McLaughlin is one of the best in the business they don't think he's ever been more that .1 of a %point off.

he said that Mitt Allen have not trailed at all in the last 2weeks. he said it is close, but it is still a win.

then he went into the polling analysis, much as you have.

thought you'd want to know this.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at November 05, 2012 01:02 PM (HNwOT)

12 Get in my belly!

Posted by: Sandra Fluke at November 05, 2012 01:02 PM (Kaabf)

13 any internals. The only solace I have is that Ohio is typically national polling +.2Rish, so .... we have that.

so, say we take the 2008 map and add back

IN
OH
VA
NC
FL

still need one more....maybe even NH will do

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 05, 2012 01:02 PM (QxSug)

14 Well, I don't know if it does show such erosion. That 7-day average (now a 4-day thanks to Sandy) includes weekends and Gallup doesn't weight by party. I think it's slightly better than 1 pt. because of the weekend oversampling. But not 5 points, no.

We really forget how hard it is for a challenger to win decisively. We're spoiled by Reagan, but Reagan was well-known to the American people and John Anderson pulled off a lot of Carter votes, making the victory look bigger than it might have been.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (T0NGe)

15 I mean, any internals?

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (QxSug)

16 Nice little polling firm ya there.

Be a shame if sumptin happened to it.....

Posted by: David AxelWad at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (z3Lez)

17 i got an email from the George Allen political
director sent to all their coordinators. it said that the NBC PPP polls
for Va that show Kaine ahead are wrong. It goes on to say that their
pollster, Mr. McLaughlin is one of the best in the business they don't
think he's ever been more that .1 of a %point off.

he said that Mitt Allen have not trailed at all in the last 2weeks. he said it is close, but it is still a win.

then he went into the polling analysis, much as you have.

thought you'd want to know this.



Posted by: kelley in virgini

Who's leading the win, Romney or Allen?

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (UypUQ)

18 And I'd run some footage of the desperation in New Jersey, Lower Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island.


How dare you politicize such a disaster by attempting to hold accountable those who are supposed be in charge of assisting with these kinds of things! What are you, some kind of monster?


SCOAMFWars wins everything btw.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (VtjlW)

19 Rush: Rassmussen party identification R 39 D34 That isn't D + 11!

Posted by: concealedkerry or submitt at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (vXqv3)

20 First!

Posted by: Skags at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (ahsqI)

21 Colorado is solid RMoney. Lastest Sec of State early voting tally:

Republicans, 624,788; Democrats, 590,417; and unaffiliated voters, 474,437.

R's have a bigger election day vote in CO than early voting.

Posted by: GadsdenBC at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (AT1Ju)

22 Well I guess Gallup went for the alignment--no longer really an outlier.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 01:03 PM (r2PLg)

23 That Gallup is a lot closer than I like...

Posted by: Sigh at November 05, 2012 01:04 PM (cynHT)

24 11/3/1980: Reagan - Carter, too close to call.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at November 05, 2012 01:04 PM (pUqSw)

25 Election Day weather map: Rain in Chicago and Florida

http://www.weatherbug.com/images/bugtoday/Outlook_110612_1.jpg

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 01:04 PM (piMMO)

26 it said that the NBC PPP polls for Va that show Kaine ahead are wrong.

PPP is always wrong and it really pisses me off that any company can publish "poll results" and it makes news.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 05, 2012 01:04 PM (T0NGe)

27 Let me risk incurring the wrath of he morons.

I don't blame Christy for doing what he had to do to secure the federal money he needed to help his people.

Do you have any doubt that Barky demanded that fellatio before her write the check? I don't.

Sometimes realpolitik means doing what you have to do to get what you need to get, and Christie had to take the pipe to get the money to rebuild his state.

So, flame away...

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (I2LwF)

28 That poll reflects the small "lets forget what a douchebag Obama is" period when he was holding hands with Christie. That has faded.

Romney is up and its not static in the survey. Tsunami begins at dawn.

Posted by: sgr at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (xa5GW)

29 Meanwhile Rasmussen has released adjusted party ID numbers:


Old - New
33.8 33.6 Democrat
36.4 37.8 Republican
29.8 28.6 Independent


SCOAMF is... OUT???!!!!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (XkWWK)

30 Tie Bo to the family truckster Barry. It's ovah.

Posted by: Seamus Romney at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (ypzqs)

31 Polls don't measure enthusiasm. FWIW, Springsteen draws 50,000 less in Madison WI today with Preezy Cakeboy (15,000--50% of what the Zero camp expected) than when Springsteen campaign with Senator Kerry (D-Ketchup) where 65,000 showed up.

Good sign.

Posted by: eureka! at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (UL+ny)

32 I'm not sure I actually blame Christie, but one of my pet peeves is people who give out participation trophies. That's what Christie did, gushingly, even though Obama had not done anything other than the bare minimum required to LOOK GOOD for the cameras.

Posted by: Slublog at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (0nqdj)

33 @21, cool.

@19, I don't that is the internals used in the poll which we discuss now

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (QxSug)

34 My electoral map has R with 268... Just 1 more EV needed out of OH, PA, MI, WI, MN, NV

Praying...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (bgzAd)

35 Looks like Gallup, Rasmussen and Pew are all completely ignoring their own work showing R+ electorate and sticking with D+ electorate despite R+ enthusiasm.

Simply does not compute.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (hlUJY)

36 I still don't see that Gallup has officially updated their tracking graph.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 01:06 PM (r2PLg)

37 Ya'll really need to get off the poll pipe.

Posted by: RWC at November 05, 2012 01:06 PM (fWAjv)

38 How about we actually wait until Gallup releases the numbers? CAC, the guy who first said 49-48, then said it might be 49-48 the OTHER WAY. Let's just wait a few?

Posted by: Rich at November 05, 2012 01:06 PM (arczc)

39 from previous post - just heard a guy with Dennis Prager, who has been working on the ground game in Ohio the last 2 weeks. Says Ohio is going to Romney, without a doubt.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:06 PM (2zM0P)

40 Yeah, the Ras party ID numbers certainly helps. Tomorrow can't come soon enough. Outside of this site and Dave's, I'm ignoring the news cable channels since outside of a couple of people, they don't show the internals.

Posted by: Sigh at November 05, 2012 01:06 PM (cynHT)

41
There are no details yet because this is a pre-release leak of the topline results, which were supposed to be released at 1 pm but aren't out yet.

in addition, Gallup usually provides few, if any, internals of their tracking poll. They provide registered voters, job approval, stuff like that. No split stuff.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:07 PM (LCRYB)

42
They simply aren't going to allow us a pre-gloat.

Oh well, double edged sword, motivation for those that haven't yet voted, not like they should need any: its only their children's future at stake.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 01:07 PM (PHb2k)

43 34 - did you include the 1 EV from Maine that Romney is in good shape to win?

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:07 PM (2zM0P)

44 Yo yo, my bitches. I got this.

Posted by: Prezident to be Mitt-Mitt rMoney at November 05, 2012 01:07 PM (F6KtL)

45 Time for Barry to go back to Sweet Home Chicago Hawaii.

Posted by: huerfano at November 05, 2012 01:07 PM (bAGA/)

46 So, flame away...


Dude. I'm flaming for the Adventures in Spelling and Grammar.


Just got hateshake in my hair trying to make sure I got every last little bit of hate. Worth it.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 01:07 PM (VtjlW)

47 Romney has run a great campaign, feel very confident about tomorrow.

Posted by: beerologist at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (CdhVC)

48 Sometimes realpolitik means doing what you have to do to get what you
need to get, and Christie had to take the pipe to get the money to
rebuild his state.


I think Christie has gone purposefully overboard and clownishly so on purpose. Look, the Dems are bitter and vindictive people and would have no qualms about cutting off money to NJ on Wednesday.

He wants to make it so that if they do so, he won't be blamed for being insufficiently deferential.

But somehow I get the feeling that he is going so over the top as a signal to us.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (T0NGe)

49 OK, I am biased. I admit it.

But I really think the 47% is Obama's ceiling.


Posted by: Bart, waiting for SMOD at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (he2LC)

50 27 Let me risk incurring the wrath of he morons.

I don't blame Christy for doing what he had to do to secure the federal money he needed to help his people.

Do you have any doubt that Barky demanded that fellatio before her write the check? I don't.

Sometimes realpolitik means doing what you have to do to get what you need to get, and Christie had to take the pipe to get the money to rebuild his state.

So, flame away...
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (I2LwF)

___________________________

It's just that Chris Christie gave Obama the full lap dance before even getting paid.

It just wasn't pretty.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (r2PLg)

51 Don't forget, Gallup is a 5 day tracking poll. I'd be willing to bet that there are some good days for Obama from the middle of last week about to roll off.

Hurricane Christie bounce won't last.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (TMB3S)

52 "Mr. McLaughlin is one of the best in the business they don't think he's ever been more that .1 of a %point off."

He is one of the best in the business.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (JxIkO)

53 >>>How about we actually wait until Gallup releases the numbers? CAC, the guy who first said 49-48, then said it might be 49-48 the OTHER WAY. Let's just wait a few?

why don't you calm down yourself and stop worrying about what information others are permitted to see?

The pre-release comes from Frank Newport, head of Gallup's political polling.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (LCRYB)

54 I'm waiting for the double secret final Gallup poll

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 01:08 PM (8sCoq)

55 37 Ya'll really need to get off the poll pipe.

And get on the pole pipe. We need pointy elbows and baby lambs!

Posted by: rickb223 at November 05, 2012 01:09 PM (SXr3S)

56 market erosion --> marked erosion

"market erosion" would be something like a change in the InTrade numbers.

Oh how I wish i had some money to put down. 2:1 odds in favor of Obama! I'm still pessimistic, but even at worst Obama should only be up a few percents. From a gambler's perspective, 2:1 odds are too good to pass up; even if you want/expect Obama to win, you should buying Romney on InTrade. Sort of like Tyson having 30:1 odds over Holyfield. Ridiculous.

Posted by: wooga at November 05, 2012 01:09 PM (vjyZP)

57 Chris Christie is out for himself. He's got an election next year most likely against Cory Booker and Christie plans to run for President in 2016. A Romney win upsets his plan. It would have been fine to make one nice Sandy statement expressing appreciation to POTUS and the fed. govt. but to go on and on excessively lavishing praise on POTUS so close to the election was unacceptable. To give Obama the photo op standing in puddles and hugging victims = unacceptable. Should have said, "we've got too much work to do" like Bloomberg did. Christie is a smart guy and he understands political optics.

I was a fan, now I'm an enemy. And I don't think I'm alone. Good luck with your aspirations, Governor.

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at November 05, 2012 01:09 PM (DQMcq)

58 And I'd run some footage of the desperation in New Jersey, Lower Manhattan, Queens, and Staten Island.





How dare you politicize such a disaster by attempting to hold
accountable those who are supposed be in charge of assisting with these
kinds of things! What are you, some kind of monster?



***

No need to show photos or even mention Sandy. Just work into his standard stump speech, when he mentions other issues he'll work on, the need to rework FEMA.

Keep it general.

Everyone will know what he's talking about.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 01:09 PM (piMMO)

59 19, Rush: Rassmussen party identification R 39 D34 That isn't D + 11!
Is Rasmussen's poll today based on that party ID?

Posted by: IC at November 05, 2012 01:09 PM (a0IVu)

60 If'n Obama steals the election, I'm going on a long, dry walk into the desert and leaving my shit to the Salvation Army.

Already got my will updated and a nice soft tarp.

Ain't going to live under a dictator. Rather die under a mesquite bush.

Posted by: Inspector Asshole at November 05, 2012 01:09 PM (jZn+7)

61 Springsteen draws 50,000 less

Fewer.

Posted by: bored-with-polls pedant at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (w+lzM)

62 >Let me risk incurring the wrath of he morons.



I don't blame Christy for doing what he had to do to secure the federal money he needed to help his people.


No, this is about right
it was just icky to watch

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (8sCoq)

63 Christie could have, at the very least, invited Romney to take a tour of the damage. Bobby Jindal did exactly that during the storm that hit around the RNC convention. And he was a PERRY backer!

Loyalty matters.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (UypUQ)

64 no, ras poll today is dem+3

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (Dnbau)

65 You know did Chris Christie get performance before that lap dance?

No he did not.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (r2PLg)

66 Incidentally, the post contains an admonition to try to increase turnout, rather than just hoping things break our way.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (LCRYB)

67 I know you big bloggers are just fixated on the polls but I'm glad this year is going to show how totally and idiotically these tea leaf readers are utterly wrong. This is just ridiculous.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (r4wIV)

68 So even with Bruce Springsteen Obama only draws 15k in WI? Half of what they expected?

Obama is done.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (hlUJY)

69 >Springsteen draws 50,000 less

Fewer.


Posted by: bored-with-polls pedant at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (w+lzM)

fragment

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (8sCoq)

70
8:15 EST

My hope, make it happen again:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PsDe-8cOSYY

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (PHb2k)

71 Una tormenta se acerca.

Posted by: El Bloombito at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (/ZZCn)

72 So Gallup is basically saying either 1) We've been full of shit all along, but this poll is accurate or 2) The DoJ threats got to us and we decided to lie this time to take some heat off. Does that about cover it? This race didn't move 5 point or more over a few days for a friggin' hurricane.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (qEkGZ)

73 43 - Yes. I included 1 EV in ME.

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (bgzAd)

74
27 Let me risk incurring the wrath of he morons. I don't blame Christy for doing what he had to do to secure the federal money he needed to help his people. Do you have any doubt that Barky demanded that fellatio before her write the check? I don't. Sometimes realpolitik means doing what you have to do to get what you need to get, and Christie had to take the pipe to get the money to rebuild his state. So, flame away...




I've said it several times, that if Christie had not been gracious and complimentary of Obama then the MFM Headlines for the last week and up until tomorrow would have been "REPUBLICAN Governor Plays Politics While State Residents are Homeless and Suffer."

Posted by: buzzion at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (GULKT)

75 59 - no - Ras is still using a D+2 or D+3.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (2zM0P)

76 And get on the pole pipe. We need pointy elbows and baby lambs!

Here you go:


http://youtu.be/jLfmrNw8ygo

Elbows and baby lambs galore! (Um which should be an appropriate mildly NSFW warning)

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (VtjlW)

77 Remember - dueling appearances by the candidates, half time, MNF

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (8sCoq)

78 Ya'll really need to get off the poll pipe.

Right.

http://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2008/10/balls-and-urns.html

What Iowahawk said then is still true, but more so. It's now 91% of balls who explicitly refuse to let you select them, not 50%. If you believe that last 9% is actually a representative sample, well...

This isn't even going to be close.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (LXKJo)

79 Looks like you morons could use some cupcakes!

Posted by: Tracy Flick at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (Ks4nX)

80 Any good whore knows--you get paid first.

Then you get screwed.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (r2PLg)

81 And get on the pole pipe. We need pointy elbows and baby lambs!
Posted by: rickb223 at November 05, 2012 01:09 PM (SXr3S)

Amen.

Posted by: RWC at November 05, 2012 01:12 PM (fWAjv)

82 Why the fuck is Rasmussen ignoring his own polling of party affiliation????!!!!

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:12 PM (hlUJY)

83 Chris Christie is out for himself. He's got an election next year most
likely against Cory Booker and Christie plans to run for President in
2016.


Really? President? I don't think so. The former, I believe wholeheartedly, but I don't know why he'd be so worried. If he loses, Romney can make him Secretary of Education.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 05, 2012 01:12 PM (T0NGe)

84 If Obama wins then we get what we deserve. I'm a bit more pessimistic about the outcome than most but in retrospect I don't know what Romney could have done to pull further ahead than he has. He's run a positive, future oriented campaign that to me felt just right.

Maybe the country has just turned hard left, maybe the 51% are still as blind and lazy and in 2008, or maybe the scale has tipped and we now have more takers than makers. Who knows. One thing I do know is that an Obama victory hastens our decline and in 2016 we'll be a different country. And by different I don't mean better.

Posted by: volfan at November 05, 2012 01:12 PM (RTb48)

85 But I really think the 47% is Obama's ceiling.

I agree, I'd be surprised if he got that high. And Romney's ceiling is around 54% I think.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:12 PM (r4wIV)

86 Why the fuck is Rasmussen ignoring his own polling of party affiliation????!!!!

Same reason Gallup is: they are using the data they get. They aren't getting enough responses to do a proper representative poll, but they're paid to do polls, so they put out the best they can with the garbage they are collecting.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (r4wIV)

87 well, the importance of Ras's actual DRI is that oversampling D&R's can hide the impact of the I's vote.

We are all assuming that there's not only an even # of D's and R's but that the I's are going solidly for R across the country.

who knows.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (QxSug)

88 Chris Chrisite could have showed just some ankle first--then go Full Monty.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (r2PLg)

89 no, ras poll today is dem+3

I will never get why Ras spends money polling tens of thousands of people to determine party ID and then ignores it for his big poll.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (T0NGe)

90 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a malignant traitor.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (8y9MW)

91 Get your fucking faces out of the poll numbers.

Rasmussen, Gallup, and all the others are going down with the SCOAMT. Their methodologies are old and busted.

Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (BOesr)

92 what happened to step cutter? mia.

Posted by: Hostilian at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (KwQGD)

93 Nope... do a HUGE Ad Buy of the 500 Generals and Admirals who have now endorsed Romney....

With a quick intro of how the Military is usualy A-Political.... and how it would take a CRISES for them to speak up....

Posted by: Romeo13 at November 05, 2012 01:13 PM (lZBBB)

94
Stand back bitchez.

We're about to drop the house on a mo-fo.

Posted by: The Catholic Church. at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (lnvhI)

95 Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (LXKJo)

Math is hard. Therefore I just step outside or take a drive and notice that this isn't 2008 by a long shot.

We got this. Easily.

Posted by: RWC at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (fWAjv)

96 the Colorado early voting numbers are very promising. I think party affiliation is R+2 or 3 in the state. If early voting is showing R+3, we could be looking at a R+5 (or more) electorate in Colorado. Should be a comfortable win for Romeny.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (2zM0P)

97 with all due respect, if you've decided that YOUR method of "turning out to vote" is just to play morale officer in a partisan blog's comment section, you're doing it wrong.

If you want to actually HELP, then volunteer, and stop whining in comments areas where almost everyone is voting for Romney.

This is what gets me, that I'm getting grief over reporting stuff that's about to break on FoxNews, and some people have decided that their special effort for The Cause will consist of bitching about my mention of the polls.

DO.

SOMETHING.

MORE.

USEFUL.

AND STOP PRETENDING THAT BITCHY COMMENTS ON A BLOG ARE "ACTIVISM."

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (LCRYB)

98 Maybe the country has just turned hard left, maybe the 51% are still as blind and lazy and in 2008, or maybe the scale has tipped and we now have more takers than makers. Who




READ THE THREAD

currently 5.8% more Americans ID themselves as Rs than Ds

There is hope.

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (Dnbau)

99 And the white tennis shoes--those were just--

tragic.

Posted by: tasker at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (r2PLg)

100 I don't blame Christy for doing what he had to do to secure the federal money he needed to help his people.


No, this is about right
it was just icky to watch

***

I defended Christie right up until yesterday. He just won' fucking quit. When he defended his extension of gratitude to TFG he couldn't just say, "Hey! I told him 'thank you'" and move on. Once again he felt the need to cite Obama's leadership and, despite his statements about voting for Romney, his reach-around for TFG has gone too far.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (piMMO)

101 I think the hurricane, and Gallup not polling for a few days, has messed their numbers up. I'd almost take their result with an * just because of that.

Posted by: Lee (in KY) at November 05, 2012 01:15 PM (jgXna)

102 I just thought of something - what do any of these polling outfits lose by making their final calls a dead heat between O and R? It seems to me like the least risky solution in the event that O pulls this one out in terms of post-election wrath via the DOJ. How do you go after someone that basically called it a coin flip?

Posted by: volfan at November 05, 2012 01:15 PM (RTb48)

103 Springsteen draws 50,000 less

Fewer.




Posted by: bored-with-polls pedant at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM (w+lzM)

fragment


Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 01:10 PM

57 states and nuthin' on

Posted by: LC LaWedgie at November 05, 2012 01:15 PM (2iU3x)

104

It's all going to come down to mobilization and enthusiasm.





It is and by now people ought to charged up to vote that commie SOB out of office. I've been waiting since Nov. 2008

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 05, 2012 01:15 PM (1Jaio)

105 Ace....again....this is a Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday poll...Thursday was a high mark for Obama....Notice how Rasmussen picked up the one point drop today for Obama....why? yesterday when he had 49/49...that was Thursday Friday Sat and released Sunday...today Thursday fell off and Obama dropped back to 48...same with Gallup....take out Thursday and he will drop back to 47 percent....pure and simple. Plus I am sure that Gallup is not using their partisan split...neither is Rasmussen remember that!

Posted by: bluerose75 at November 05, 2012 01:15 PM (HDcKc)

106 Good FUCKING GOD stop being Bed Shitters !!! The Campaigns spend a TON of money & Have to be accurate, Media Doesn't spend a Ton of Money & doesn't have to be accurate, Look how Happy R/R are & How mean & Vitriolic O/B are

@nd Of all look where the candidates & surrogates are going

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:15 PM (ck76k)

107

Strange days...

both therightscoop.com and nation.foxnews.com have big boob pieces...

wth?

Posted by: 1 day at November 05, 2012 01:15 PM (LpQbZ)

108 Gallup's final tracking poll in 2008 had it at Jugears 53, My Friendsh 42. Their final estimate was 55-44. Does it mean they'll be just as off this year, not necessarily, but we'll find out tomorrow. It is noteworthy that Jugears doesn't crack 50% in any of these polls.

Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (JxMoP)

109 DAMN THE POLLS, FULL SPEED AHEAD!!!

Posted by: Admiral Mitt Romney at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (F6KtL)

110 77 Remember - dueling appearances by the candidates, half time, MNF
Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 01:11 PM (8sCoq)

DEULING Appearances??? Cool.... Sword? or Pistols at 10 Paces?

Posted by: Romeo13 at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (lZBBB)

111 I think turnout is going to be D+2 to R+2 nationally and that is good news...

We just have got to turn out in the swing states the way we did in 2010...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (bgzAd)

112 +1 is +1, friends.

And we have it in both of the biggest polls.

I would like to have Pew.

But the one thing we know is that the data does not justify Axelrod et al's self-assuredness.

Time to play.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GeYgrWsMW7g

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (WbGW2)

113 Draaaama!

Posted by: runninrebel at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (U3OzJ)

114
*** correction, foxnation with 2 big boob pieces

Posted by: 1 day at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (LpQbZ)

115 I think the pollsters can't believe the party ID numbers they are getting, and are adjusting their samples to get them closer to the mid-range of 2004 and 2008. I think they are missing the wave, and also not factoring in the 2010 results.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (2zM0P)

116 I haven't read the comments.

I was at the Ryan rally on Saturday and the Romney one yesterday. I nearly froze to death waiting for Romney to arrive. I got there at 2, which was when the "doors" were supposed to open and there were a whole bunch of people already in line. A WHOLE BUNCH. People were still streaming in as the event, which started at 5, was going on. People were watching from outside the outdoor venue from behind the fence.

I think Romney will win big and shock lots of people. Granted, I am a natural optimist.

I think tomorrow will be the first time I will regret no longer having cable. I will not be able to bathe my soul in the sweet sweet despair of the MSNBC crew.

Posted by: chique d'afrique (the artist formerly known as african chick) at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (6zgse)

117
The propaganda value of polls...is what bothers me about polls.

I don't think it's a 'close race'.
How could it be?
Things are worse now than they were in 2010, and people are just as pissed off now as they were then...even moreso, really.

But these polls will be held up by the Dems as 'proof' that the "Republicans stole the election!"
Gah.

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (ICEh3)

118 Is Rasmussen's poll today based on that party ID?


For some reason, Ras never uses his PartyID survey to inform his tracking poll. Don't know why.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (8y9MW)

119 RE: Gallup... the move up a couple points for Obama doesn't bother me, tightening was bound to happen as the less enthusiastic side doesn't tune in until the 11th hour. But what does give me worry is the DROP in R's numbers by 2-points. How to explain that? People switching their vote?


Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (UypUQ)

120 Polls don't measure enthusiasm. FWIW, Springsteen draws 50,000 less
in Madison WI today with Preezy Cakeboy (15,000--50% of what the Zero
camp expected) than when Springsteen campaign with Senator Kerry
(D-Ketchup) where 65,000 showed up.

Good sign.


Posted by: eureka! at November 05, 2012 01:05 PM (UL+ny)


15,000 people with nothing else better to do with their lives

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 05, 2012 01:17 PM (1Jaio)

121 >Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (LCRYB)


Ace, it's bad form to yell at the customers.

Posted by: Jones in CO at November 05, 2012 01:17 PM (8sCoq)

122 Strange days...

both therightscoop.com and nation.foxnews.com have big boob pieces...

wth?


signs and wonders

first polls,

then boobehs

then voting and GOTV

then pudding



Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:17 PM (Dnbau)

123 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
These national polls flat out converging to the middle. No one going out on a limb, most predicting a good D+ to offset Romneys strong Is

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:17 PM (ck76k)

124 102 I just thought of something - what do any of these polling outfits loseby making their final calls a dead heat between O and R? It seems to me like the least risky solution in the event that O pulls this one out interms of post-election wrath via the DOJ.
How do you go after someone that basically called it a coin flip?

Because they didn't sufficiently drink the kool-aid?

Posted by: rickb223 at November 05, 2012 01:18 PM (SXr3S)

125 Bad polls aren't going to make a bit of difference to GOP turnout (or independents). Nobody is going to see a Gallup poll and go "well then I'm giving up!!!!" That's just a ridiculous fiction.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:18 PM (r4wIV)

126 Sabato says Obama 290
Dick Morris says Romney 300 something.

Posted by: Trouble. at November 05, 2012 01:18 PM (mka2b)

127 "@nd Of all look where the candidates & surrogates are going"

The fact that anti-Obama PACs are finding it worth their money to run saturation primetime ads in Illi-friggin'-noise tells me all I need to know.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 01:18 PM (LXKJo)

128 HA! My scouts say there's a ton of Indians waiting for me at Little Big Horn, but the newspapers say I can't lose! CHARGE!

Posted by: Colonel Barack Custer at November 05, 2012 01:18 PM (F6KtL)

129 I saw the movie Last Man Standing .So i'm going to get the UN polling monitors and MoveOn.org at each others' throats.

Maybe Texas will finally top Australia for making independent horror movies.

Posted by: humphreyrobot at November 05, 2012 01:19 PM (EiH7n)

130 2
No. Romney's lead is solid. The tracking poll only takes into account 4 days and two of them were weekend days

We're fine.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 12:59 PM (I2LwF)

THIS!^

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 01:19 PM (ovpNn)

131 Ace, it's bad form to yell at the customers.

Customer pay for what they consume.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:19 PM (8y9MW)

132
Has anyone noticed that all the pollsters have the same numbers...even those with PLUS DEM SAMPLE OF 7......I think something is very very fishy....why would every pollster have the same numbers with totally different turnout models? Something stinks....CNN...49/49 with plus 11 Dem Sample....Rasmussen 49/48 with Plus 3 Dem Sample and Romney winning Independents by 9? Sorry something STINKS IN SUBURBIA to me...I feel this will be either 52/48...Romney...53/47 Romney or 52/47....there is something very odd here and Republicans have all the enthusiasm????

I think all the National Pollsters are protecting each other and no one wants to go out on a limb!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at November 05, 2012 01:19 PM (HDcKc)

133 One thing I do know is that an Obama victory hastens
our decline and in 2016 we'll be a different country. And by different
I don't mean better.

Posted by: volfan at November 05, 2012 01:12 PM (RTb4
Agreed. I can live with an Obama victory, but it's much harder to live with the idea that we have become a country that would re-elect him given how awful he's been. I see either two scenarios: 1) a slight win for Obama, or 2) a solid win for Romney, if not quite a landslide. If 2 happens, it will restore my faith in the citizens of this country. If the first option happens, well, I don't even know...

Posted by: Mullaney at November 05, 2012 01:19 PM (s8XaI)

134 Polls = easy content

Easy content = more threads per day

More threads per day = less annoying scrolling on my iPhone

Therefore I don't mind poll fixations... I just don't believe them.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:19 PM (I2LwF)

135 Just decided to take a gander at the pre-election threads here in 2008. Lot of optimism for Meghan's Daddy, a lot of pooh-poohing of the polls, love for Sarah P, and a fundamental disbelief that we would be turning the reins over to a Stuttering Clusterfuck of a Lecturing Community Organizer (SCOALCO).

But it happened...hard. Hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. At least if Obama wins, we can look forward to an epic immaculation thread.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at November 05, 2012 01:19 PM (Ec6wH)

136 Makes no sense to me. It's a mess here in NJ/NY so how obama could get a jump from the storm is beyond me? Are people that fucking stupid?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (79ueO)

137 15,000 in a college town urn out to hear a concert/rally. Maybe 7500 will vote


40,000 in the middle of nowhere on a friggin freezing night wait for a delayed flight and hours long struggle to get out of the parking lot after it is over

Probably all of those people are gonna vote

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (Dnbau)

138 MADISON, Wisc. --
The tea party, at least its widespread influence on Republican
congressional candidates, "is over," declared the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee, the party group charged with electing
Democrats to the House.
"House Republican incumbents —
and their candidates — are running as far away from the Tea Party as
they can," a pre-election DCCC memo provided to Yahoo News reads.
"Regardless of whether [Republicans] win or lose, the Tea Party of 2010
is over. They've been forced on defense in the message fight all
cycle long, and now those who win will have done so by giving up on
the Tea Party."





And Steiner is about to show up any minute now to relieve Berlin

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (1Jaio)

139 126 Sabato says Obama 290
Dick Morris says Romney 300 something.
Posted by: Trouble. at November 05, 2012 01:18 PM (mka2b)

52/48 R/R, 270ish EVs for R/R. Just help GOTV and "stay on target"

Posted by: The Robot Devil at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (EZZ+Z)

140 Chris Christie is out for himself. He's got an election next year most

likely against Cory Booker and Christie plans to run for President in

2016.


****

I follow both on Twitter and I've never seen any pol as engaged with his folks as Booker. That dude is manning phones, making visits, taking emails and tweets about damages and injuries and running them personally to he proper city departments.

It's really something to watch.

Yet... Christie will NEVER get the R nod and Booker is going to have serve in the house or senate or as governor before he can even consider a run for national office.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (piMMO)

141 For some reason, Ras never uses his PartyID survey to inform his tracking poll. Don't know why.

Because he can't. One out of ELEVEN people called actually respond to a poll. Of them, poor people, people on welfare, and lower educated voters are more likely to respond. Likely voters are LESS likely to respond.

They're doing the best they can, but if they call 800 people and get 72 responses, most of whom are Democrats, that's the data they have. They have no choice but to use the data they get.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (r4wIV)

142 Preibus has said Romney will have acceptance speech at 10 CST ! That is a pretty far limb to go out on unless he's sure

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:21 PM (ck76k)

143 Current and former intelligence officials tell Fox News that a classified State Department cable sent Aug. 16 -- and which said the Benghazi consulate could not defend against a "coordinated attack" -- would certainly have gone to the White House National Security Council staff.

"The National Security Council sees everything," a former senior intelligence official told Fox News. "The staff are sitting on top of all the cable traffic which means the national security advisor (Tom Donilon) and deputy national security advisor (Denis McDonough) have some explaining to do. If Libya was of interest to this administration, the national security staff saw it."

Current and former intelligence officials said that North Africa -- specifically the growing lawlessness in eastern Libya, the sizable CIA presence and the estimated 20,000 loose weapons -- were of keen interest to the White House national security team and the intelligence community. There is growing evidence that the attack was designed to flush out any remaining western influence in eastern Libya, and specifically the growing CIA presence.

"To have not read it would be negligent," the former senior intelligence official said.

Posted by: Leopold "Butters" Stotch at November 05, 2012 01:21 PM (e8kgV)

144 Ace is right. Polls are one thing, but make them a reality. Getting out the vote is important. In Ohio, its a razor thin margin and even bringing one person with you to vote could be the difference. Make. This. Happen. Push hard till tomorrow night.

After that? All the pudding we can handle.

Posted by: Eric in Ohio at November 05, 2012 01:21 PM (9yIC6)

145 Whatwas Gallup saying about the 2010 Elections on election eve? I honestly don't remember.

The only people who saw the Red Rout coming were the voters - and even WE were astonished at the bloodbath that occurred.

Remember, the Duning-Kruger effect works both ways - the folks who tend to be most successful are the ones who are afraid they aren't going to do very well. I think we're going to be pleasantly surprised tomorrow evening, just because so many of us are still unsure about the outcome.

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at November 05, 2012 01:21 PM (P6H+d)

146 @NumbersMuncher While we wait for Gallup's final poll, remember its Thur-Sun. Daily polls point to big days for O Thu/Fri, but better Romney yesterday. 1/2

My hunch is it will be close (rumor is R+1) due to Thur/Fri pulling Romney's lead from weekend down. Wouldn't read too much into it. 2/2

Posted by: 80sBaby at November 05, 2012 01:22 PM (YjDyJ)

147 AND THIS!

Rasmussen party ID poll:
October 2008:
33.3 (R)40.3 (D)26.4 (I)+7.1% D.

October 2012:
39.1 (R)
33.3 (D)
27.5(I)+5.8% R


Its not a dead heat bitches. ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE!

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 01:22 PM (ovpNn)

148 "The tea party, at least its widespread influence on Republican
congressional candidates, "is over," declared the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee"

Right. And Muhammad Saeed al-Sahhaf said there were no U.S. troops in Baghdad.

Posted by: GroverMuhfugginCleveland at November 05, 2012 01:22 PM (LXKJo)

149 DEULING Appearances??? Cool.... Sword? or Pistols at 10 Paces?

No, dicks at 12 inches. The MAN way.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:22 PM (I2LwF)

150
AND STOP PRETENDING THAT BITCHY COMMENTS ON A BLOG ARE "ACTIVISM."





Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (LCRYB)

Point well taken, but most of us here are probably stuck at work today.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:22 PM (UypUQ)

151 They're doing the best they can, but if they call 800 people and get 72
responses, most of whom are Democrats, that's the data they have. They
have no choice but to use the data they get.


The partisan ID survey is of 15,000 homes. 15,000 homes.

And they get plenty of respondents to use their own partisan breakdown as their weighting metric, they just don't.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:22 PM (8y9MW)

152 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (9XBK2)

153 Barack Obama’s enthusiasm gap began at home.

There is a surprisingly simple explanation for Obama’s up-and-down performance as a candidate during his reelection grind in 2012, for those lackluster TV appearances, for that epic flop Oct. 3 on the Denver debate stage that might yet cost him his presidency on Tuesday.

Until the final sprint, he just wasn’t that into it.

Posted by: Harry Truman at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (e8kgV)

154 Cold statistics. No room for the general mood of the nation. Please, someone tell me. What has changed for the better since 2010?

Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (BOesr)

155 Fewer [not less].


Posted by: bored-with-polls pedant


Tnx. My bad.

Posted by: eureka! at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (UL+ny)

156 >>>Ace, it's bad form to yell at the customers.

It's stupid to just keep yelling "embargo information from people even though the whole point of a blog is to disseminate information."

The election is not in fact in the bag. If this discomforts people, sorry, but that's the reality.

There is still time for dedicated patriots to do something to drive up Republican turnout.

So we can do that, or we can just bitch that I shouldn't publish polling information that everyone's been waiting for and, look, which everyone is going to know about within minutes.

if you think it's going to be a blowout and we can all just rest easily and Let The Landslide Happen, the poll numbers -- including from our most favorable polls -- say you're wrong.

The poll numbers indicate that effort is required.

As I've said before, I think a lot of the agitation that happens comes from people who WANT somehting to be done but don't want to do it themselves, so they tend to yell at other people rather than taking the steps necessary to advance the ball.

Thinking but NOT DOING results in frustration and cognitive dissonance, and that comes out in the form of "doing what I can," which is yelling in blog comments sections.

The election is close. it is a on a knife-edge. It is perfectly winnable for Romney -- and perfectly losable, too.

It will depend on turnout and mobilization. things we can, in fact, affect.

Yelling at me doesn't affect mobilization. Walking a district, calling voters from home, working a strike list -- these things do.

Please take your frustration and anxiety and channel them into EFFECTIVE, USEFUL activism.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (LCRYB)

157 with all due respect, if you've decided that YOUR
method of "turning out to vote" is just to play morale officer in a
partisan blog's comment section, you're doing it wrong.



If you want to actually HELP, then volunteer, and stop whining in comments areas where almost everyone is voting for Romney.



This is what gets me, that I'm getting grief over reporting stuff
that's about to break on FoxNews, and some people have decided that
their special effort for The Cause will consist of bitching about my
mention of the polls.



DO.



SOMETHING.



MORE.



USEFUL.



AND STOP PRETENDING THAT BITCHY COMMENTS ON A BLOG ARE "ACTIVISM."





Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (LCRYB)

A little self-application of that advice would have spared us a lot of your "let's panic over this new poll today" posts. Pot, Kettle, black.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (qEkGZ)

158 I think tomorrow will be the first time I will
regret no longer having cable. I will not be able to bathe my soul in
the sweet sweet despair of the MSNBC crew.

Posted by: chique d'afrique (the artist formerly known as african chick) at November 05, 2012 01:16 PM (6zgse)

Don't worry, I'm sure the best parts will make it to youtube.

Posted by: not the mama at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (kzCIn)

159
WE ARE GOONA WIN!

JUST MAKE SURE TO GET EVERYONE TO THE POLLS TOMORROW!

EVERY VOTE IS ONE MORE VOTE TO COUNTER D VOTER FRAUD!

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (ovpNn)

160 ...I will call my mom during lunch break and try to talk her into doing the phone-bank thing.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (UypUQ)

161 jasondpeery ‏@jasondpeery
Indys swinging back to Romney: Rasmussen (+17), CNN (+22), Monmouth (+16), ARG (+12). @keder @kesgardner, @KarlRove, @DavidLimbaugh @NolteNC

Posted by: The Robot Devil at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (EZZ+Z)

162 Well, that's just great.

I guess we can look forward to another Bush-Gore clusterfuck where Obama finally eeks out a win by finding enough votes in the trunks of cars in Ohio in December.

Still hoping for Teh Won to get curb stomped on election day. And then after that polls should be outlawed. They are nothing but propaganda tools now.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (+AV7H)

163 Ace's Comments are BRILLIANT !

Some of you just got schooled by an Ewok !

Posted by: AmericanDawg at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (XIsD/)

164 http://tinyurl.com/58ha9z



Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (ck76k)

165 I am telling you, the pollsters are watching their methodologies going out the windows. They get a terrible response rate, and when they see a party affiliation swing of 10+ in four years, they have a hard time believing it. They are ignoring the wave for fear of ending up with egg on their face.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (2zM0P)

166 Make sure to vote. Bring your grannie, your friend, and that Mexican/Russian/Indian guy from work who is not a citizen, because, hey, the unions say good intentions are enough.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (HKknX)

167 Please take your frustration and anxiety and channel them into EFFECTIVE, USEFUL activism.





Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (LCRYB)

I AM FAPPING!

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (ovpNn)

168 I'm working real hard to get my sister in law in Wisconsin to vote for Romney... She voted Obama in 2008 and currently plans on not voting at all....

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (bgzAd)

169 The problem with the 2010 comparison, wheatie, is a little bit of enthusiasm goes a long way in off years.

Everybody gets more motivated in the presidential--us and them.

More money poured in and more power at stake.

I hope Romney swamps President Boo-boo. But these dirtbags aren't going without a helluva fight.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (WbGW2)

170
Bill Mitchell @ 35:

Simply does not compute.

They play conservatively. None of the polling outfits want to be labeled the 'outlier', and in that they trend toward the happy medium the rest of the pack has settled on. Nobody wants to risk waking up on Wednesday to find out they're playing catcher in the Ram Rod production of the Gay Porn classic, "Hairy Pooter and the Sorcerers Bone". It's bad for business. It's much easier to claim, after the fact, that they misjudged things by the same amount as all those other guys.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (L7hol)

171 163 Ace's Comments are BRILLIANT !

Some of you just got schooled by an Ewok !

Posted by: AmericanDawg at November 05, 2012 01:23 PM (XIsD/)

We are schooled by the Ewok everyday... It's why I come back to this blog

Posted by: The Robot Devil at November 05, 2012 01:25 PM (EZZ+Z)

172
136Makes no sense to me. It's a mess here in NJ/NY so how obama could get a jump from the storm is beyond me? Are people that fucking stupid?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (79ueO)

-----------

The media palace guard aren't covering all the misery that's going on, Nevergiveup.
They're covering for Barky.
It's disgusting.

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 01:25 PM (ICEh3)

173 >>>A little self-application of that advice would have spared us a lot of your "let's panic over this new poll today" posts. Pot, Kettle, black.

Again, you seem to think that I should be propagating the message "Everything Is On Our Side And We Can Just Sit Back And Let Our Victory Happen."

I don't think that. I think we're on the knife-edge. I think we have to DO SOMETHING.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:26 PM (LCRYB)

174 Landslide

Posted by: runninrebel at November 05, 2012 01:26 PM (U3OzJ)

175 And they get plenty of respondents to use their own partisan breakdown as their weighting metric, they just don't.

According to the Pew Research Center, they aren't. They are not getting the data they need, they're getting mostly +D responses and not enough for a representative sample, according to the pollsters. Gallup has complained about that in the past as well. The polls are just crap this time and the big pollsters are doing the best they can. This isn't some great conspiracy, its garbage in: garbage out.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:26 PM (r4wIV)

176 136
Makes no sense to me. It's a mess here in NJ/NY so how obama could get a
jump from the storm is beyond me? Are people that fucking stupid?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (79ueO)
I used to think that media bias, while annoying, didn't make that much of a difference, and often made the left lazy about making arguments in support of their policies. I'm not so sure now. The narrative that Obama handled the storm well seems a bit at odds with the fact that there are some people still without power and haven't gotten any help from FEMA a week later. This probably won't make much of a difference for the votes in New York and New Jersey since they'll still largely go Obama anyway, but out here in flyover country, all people hear is that Obama handled it well. They don't hear the rest. Compare that to how poorly Bush supposedly handled Katrina, according to the media.

Posted by: Mullaney at November 05, 2012 01:27 PM (s8XaI)

177 @not the mama: But watching it live would be so much more... satisfying.

Posted by: chique d'afrique (the artist formerly known as african chick) at November 05, 2012 01:27 PM (6zgse)

178 Lou Dobbs: Christie's treatment of Obama out of proportion with any relief efforts.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 05, 2012 01:27 PM (piMMO)

179 I think what ace is saying is "vote like your kids' lives depend on it."

Which is more than "just" voting.

Unfortunately, it's not something everyone can do. Those who can, should, though.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:27 PM (8y9MW)

180 If you're going to do GOTV calls, steel your nerves because people are testy!

Posted by: Jeanne, in close proximity to the Canadian border at November 05, 2012 01:28 PM (GdalM)

181 Are people that fucking stupid?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:20 PM (79ueO)

They voted for the guy in the first place. what do you think?

Posted by: not the mama at November 05, 2012 01:28 PM (kzCIn)

182 *Strike Lists, Ben tells me, are just lists of Republican voters who have voted. You collect the list, and relay it back to headquarters. That way, the campaign knows whose door to knock on and ask, "Dude, are you going to get your ass to the polls or not?" It's critical election day intelligence.

For the first time, we're using iPhone apps instead of paper lists. Instead of crossing off a bunch of names of people who voted, and giving it to a relay man to run back to the phone bank, the info will be entered and read directly by the callers. (I spent last week asking people "So....when do you usuallyvote on election day?") so we know when to call them.

We'll be using paper backups, especially with so many older volunteers, but the apps will really speed things up. It also means each polls needs twice as many voluteers, one on the inside and one on the outside.

Posted by: CJ at November 05, 2012 01:28 PM (9G+G5)

183 Dang, a friend just reminded me this is the anniversary of the Gunpowder Plot. Though ask all the tools in Guy Fawkes masks that question and see what kind of answer you get.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 05, 2012 01:28 PM (4nG/u)

184 Just asking,but might not Obama have gotten a bump early before people realized the recovery was being SCoaMFed?

Posted by: steevy at November 05, 2012 01:28 PM (9XBK2)

185 Be friends, you English fools, be friends, we have French quarrels enough!

Posted by: Bates, the night before Agincourt at November 05, 2012 01:29 PM (Qb0jI)

186 Ace, it's bad form to yell at the customers.


Oh, come on, we've only been goodish for a long time and ace hasn't yelled at us in, like, minutes and minutes. I would have flamethrown the lot of us a long time back.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 01:29 PM (VtjlW)

187 Again, you seem to think that I should be
propagating the message "Everything Is On Our Side And We Can Just Sit
Back And Let Our Victory Happen."



I don't think that. I think we're on the knife-edge. I think we have to DO SOMETHING.



Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 01:26 PM (LCRYB)

How about not putting words in my mouth, sport. I think you should stop panicking every time a poll that is a teeny bit unsettling comes out. That's what I said. I'm not in the Romney wins by 150 EVs camp. I'm actually worried about it being close enough for the Dems to steal the thing. But the nonstop panic reactions to every single poll like this has gotten beyond tiresome. Especially when you tack on a " DO SOMETHING" lecture on the end of one when you know good and damn well lots and lots of people have been and still are "DO(ING) SOMETHING".

Posted by: davidinvirginia at November 05, 2012 01:29 PM (qEkGZ)

188 I don't think that. I think we're on the knife-edge. I think we have to DO SOMETHING.

I guess until Wednesday or so there's nothing anyone can do to to soothe your nerves, so it will just take time. And it doesn't hurt to encourage people to take action.

I'm highly skeptical that phone calls and knocking on doors does anything but annoy people, but maybe I'm just projecting my curmudgeonly response. I am of the opinion that elections are decided by the national mood, not people bugging other people.

And the mood is against Obama and for Romney.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:29 PM (r4wIV)

189 According to the Pew Research Center, they aren't. They are not getting
the data they need, they're getting mostly +D responses and not enough
for a representative sample, according to the pollsters. Gallup
has complained about that in the past as well. The polls are just crap
this time and the big pollsters are doing the best they can. This isn't
some great conspiracy, its garbage in: garbage out.


Some of these polls have sample sizes over 1,500 respondents. It would not be that difficult to re-weight those (which they already do to some extent) to indicate R+2 instead of D+5.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:29 PM (8y9MW)

190 I watched Philly TV most of the evening last night after getting back from the Romney rally. LOTS of anti-Obama super PAC ads, the closing Romney ad several times. For Obama - twice the Obama closing ad, 3 times the Colin Powell ad, once the Obama abortion ad.

AFP has a VERY effective ad featuring several ordinary people who say why they voted for Obama in 2008 but won't this time. It showed once back to back with the Colin Powell Obama ad, and even my liberal husband said the AFP ad was much more effective.

ESPN will have interviews with both Obama and Romney tonight during MNF. The Eagles are playing. Pennsylvania is going RED.

Posted by: rockmom at November 05, 2012 01:30 PM (aBlZ1)

191 So, take this as a point in support of what Ace just said.

By my numbers, with this new Gallup included, Romney leads by 3.5% if turnout is Even. Romney leads by 1% if turnout is D+3.

Getting our asses to the polls is what gets us to Even or better. Complacency and bitching that polls are telling us what we want to here is what gets us to D+3 and a nail biter.

The Romney campaign has neutralize the Dem early vote advantage. We are going into election day with an advantage. But we have to vote. If anyone sits home, then the Dems will steal an election that is ours for the taking.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 01:30 PM (JxIkO)

192 Of all the people that I've talked with either personally or over the telephone that have said they're going to vote for RR, it all comes down to one thing and one thing only. "I" have to vote.

I could have convinced a thousand people to vote for RR, but unless my voice is heard, it's all for nought.

Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:30 PM (BOesr)

193 Google salena Zito of the Pittsburgh tribune-Review she has a Column on the Washington/NYC elite missing what is happening in flyover country


http://tinyurl.com/av3qbgc

Hee it is

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:31 PM (ck76k)

194 The entire communication apparatus of this country, from government to press, is intent upon reducing GOP turnout. That is the only possible way for their boy to have any hope. Do not forget this.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at November 05, 2012 01:31 PM (zhe90)

195
It all comes down to OH, or even PA, on the outside MI. Anyone of those goes to Mitt and it is over.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 01:31 PM (PHb2k)

196

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 01:29 PM (VtjlW)


What does a person hafta do to avoid the flamethrower fate?

Cakes? Cookies? >.> Hobo pelts?

Posted by: Bates, the night before Agincourt at November 05, 2012 01:31 PM (Qb0jI)

197 ask all the tools in Guy Fawkes masks that question and see what kind of answer you get.

They mostly think he was fighting for weed, freedom, and the ability to post all the pr0n of any kind you want.

Instead he was trying to swing England toward Catholicism and away from Protestants.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:31 PM (r4wIV)

198 My theory about pollsters is , They over-think everything and are not to be believed ...This years polls are the worst I have ever seen and I've been following them since Ford / Carter...

1) Don't believe the Polls .
2) Get your friends to the polling stations .
3) Then - Dance like nobody's watching...

Posted by: AmericanDawg at November 05, 2012 01:32 PM (XIsD/)

199 177
@not the mama: But watching it live would be so much more... satisfying.

Posted by: chique d'afrique (the artist formerly known as african chick) at November 05, 2012 01:27 PM (6zgse)

Yeah, I know, I don't have cable either. I'm counting on a live blog here at the HQ (crossing fingers). That was entertaining during the after-debate commentary.

Posted by: not the mama at November 05, 2012 01:33 PM (kzCIn)

200 If Ras' polling shows that there are 4 points more registered Rs than Dems, why oh why is he using a D + 3 sample?


me no savvy

Posted by: Jerry Jack in Jacksonville at November 05, 2012 01:33 PM (Dll6b)

201 The Hurricane screwed things up with some of the polling. GOP enthusiasm+Romney's lead with independents=WIN.

Posted by: Jack Burton at November 05, 2012 01:33 PM (L7ts6)

202 Well, I already voted and mailed my ballot (living in Oregon), not much more to do here other than look at the polls.

Posted by: Sigh at November 05, 2012 01:33 PM (cynHT)

203 The Gas lines here in NJ are NOT getting better. I have power but MANY still do NOT. Many grocery stores have NO food, or food you would not want to touch. The Mail is NOT being delivered and people can NOT pay their bills. Yeah great job obama?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:33 PM (79ueO)

204 Heh. If the polls are right, homeless refugees of Sandy are going to be deluged with pudding.

But, chin up, it won't happen.

Posted by: Alberta Oil Peon at November 05, 2012 01:33 PM (pFqpP)

205 I do believe the polls: I believe they are oversampling Democrats to show the race as a.....................................Dead Heat. They all love that sh*t

Posted by: Jerry Jack in Jacksonville at November 05, 2012 01:34 PM (Dll6b)

206 "Instead he was trying to swing England toward Catholicism and away from Protestants."
===============

WUT!?! Bummer. Not kewl, man.

Posted by: Douchebag in a Guy Fawkes Mask at November 05, 2012 01:34 PM (Z7toi)

207 ask all the tools in Guy Fawkes masks that question and see what kind of answer you get.






Guy is sometimes known as "the last man to enter Parliament with honest intentions"

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 05, 2012 01:34 PM (1Jaio)

208 Romney's lead with Indies is exploding to high double digits in every poll. Obama simply cannot lose indies at this level and win.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:34 PM (hlUJY)

209 Ace, it's bad form to yell at the customers.

I like that we're morons and he gets upset when we're moronic.
Then I ponder the irony of being upset re: morons ripping on the big guy.

Posted by: DaveA at November 05, 2012 01:34 PM (MOWP1)

210 The only time I watch MSNBC is when I flip past it by accident. I don't think they'd get any audience at all if it wasn't for bloggers.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:34 PM (r4wIV)

211 CT, I know. It is sad the ignorance but when history seems to be optional or been policed for correctness, beckoning chasms of ignorance abound.

Just saw a friend post on Facebook that the Electoral College is no longer needed because of technology. I am gobsmacked at the shallowness of that concept but then again the dude is one of the mellow artist types.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 05, 2012 01:35 PM (4nG/u)

212 I think Gallup is getting ready to post.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:35 PM (hlUJY)

213 Could simply be that Gallup (and Rasmussen) simply don't want to be TOO far from the pack. They'll show Romney winning and still be touted as the closest to hit the mark.

Look how much shit Gallup was getting with having R+5 before.

Posted by: TLGM at November 05, 2012 01:35 PM (appbn)

214 NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher
Final ARG national poll has a tied race at 49%. Romney leads indies by 12. Sample is D+6 (was D+7 in 08, even in 2004/2010).



NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher
Final New Hampshire poll from ARG has a tied race @ 49%. Obama up 1 w/ indies. Romney up 10 w/ men, Obama up 8 w/ women.

NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher
ARG Iowa poll has Romney up 1, 49-48. Romney up 1 w/ indies. Sample is D+1 (was D+1 in 08, R+4 in 2010).

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:35 PM (ck76k)

215
IRM, they were NEVER going to let us pre-gloat like the dems got in 2008.

Just get everybody out that you know will go Romney, especially in the swing states.


Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 05, 2012 01:36 PM (PHb2k)

216 They are ignoring the wave for fear of ending up with egg on their face.

Or for fear of getting sued and/or having their reputations ruined by the Democrat-Media Complex.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 05, 2012 01:36 PM (F/z7g)

217 The Ras party ID is now almost GOP +6?

Posted by: Honey Badger at November 05, 2012 01:37 PM (GvYeG)

218 The sampling bias in the polls was going on long before Hurricane Sandy hit. The 2010 results should have served as a baseline for this election. For whatever reason, most polls are using the 2008 results as a baseline. All of the anecdotal evidence points toward a 2010 (or better) electorate for the Republicans.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:37 PM (2zM0P)

219 WUT!?! Bummer. Not kewl, man.

Like..dude...like as if we didn't know that already dude. It's what it SYMBOLIZES man!


Posted by: Other due in Guy Fawkes mask doing damage control. at November 05, 2012 01:37 PM (KXm42)

220 Just saw a friend post on Facebook that the Electoral College is no longer needed because of technology.

I used to think that until I realized that doing so would reduce the entire election to about 10 big cities. There would be zero reason to campaign in 75% or more of America; the electoral college reduces the differences in population.

Plus, its the last desperate barrier against a charismatic evil man, a Hitler.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:37 PM (r4wIV)

221 yup, 5.8% id as pub

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:37 PM (Dnbau)

222 I have read that Gallup doesn't weight by Party ID. They get what they get. Probably why they have the wild swings they do.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:38 PM (hlUJY)

223 Did Hot Air kill their facebook comments?

They get tired of the axelrod astroturfer Kunta Kinte?

Posted by: jeremiah GOD Bless America with a Mitt Romney Presidency wright at November 05, 2012 01:38 PM (ovpNn)

224
D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
It's important to remember that most poll top lines are adjusted to fit the pollsters opinion. The internals is where the good stuff is at


D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
Pew: Poll shows 49-49, but project Obama 50-47 just cuz

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:38 PM (ck76k)

225 Ok, I just dropped another $50 into Romney-2012's coffers. (How many hours of canvassing is that worth?). Please stop yelling at me.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:38 PM (UypUQ)

226 Obama +3 with Registered Voters.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:39 PM (hlUJY)

227 Barry's new secret service monicker: Baggage

Posted by: DM at November 05, 2012 01:39 PM (sKD9m)

228 I'd take the time to comment here, but I'm currently blowing up my pants.

Posted by: Peter Hamby at November 05, 2012 01:39 PM (BuSM8)

229 It would be fantastic if people could stop bashing Christie for putting aside politics "too much" and Ace for running a site in which people can bash polls, as well as Christie for putting aside politics "too much". 24/employed/working phones, what have you done lately to win tomorrow night?

Posted by: WAGOPinTX at November 05, 2012 01:39 PM (fXInK)

230 Dang, I've been up and down today more times than Sandra Fluke giving blow jobs...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 05, 2012 01:39 PM (9+ccr)

231 224 - "Pew: Poll shows 49-49, but project Obama 50-47 just cuz"

Yes, because undecideds break for the incumbent, :p

Posted by: Sigh at November 05, 2012 01:39 PM (cynHT)

232 What does a person hafta do to avoid the flamethrower fate?

Cakes? Cookies? >.> Hobo pelts?



Pallets of shiny silver dimes.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 01:39 PM (VtjlW)

233 http://tinyurl.com/8bgeorh


2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (ck76k)

234 222
I have read that Gallup doesn't weight by Party ID. They get what they get. Probably why they have the wild swings they do.


Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:38 PM (hlUJY)

Yes, and why they like to go with the 7-day track... to smooth out the outliers.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (UypUQ)

235 Gallup up. 49-48 R among LV. 49-46 O among RV.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (XrGnJ)

236 Ok, I just dropped another $50 into Romney-2012's coffers.

I guess you helped pay for the after election party. Better to slip the money into some congressional race that's close. Romney is swimming in cash like Scrooge McDuck in his big vault.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (r4wIV)

237 Romney +1 Gallup with likely voters.

Sandy bounce.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (hlUJY)

238 Barring voter fraud and a high number turnout for Obama, this thing looks good. I hope there are plenty poll watchers.

Posted by: Mo the girl at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (H3kAX)

239 I can't believe that these horses's asses that the Dems run out actually believe the shit they are serving up?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (79ueO)

240 Damn I thought the Pew poll projection was Romney 50 - Obama 47.

Posted by: Honey Badger at November 05, 2012 01:41 PM (GvYeG)

241 We talk only of repubs and independents voting for RR, I wonder how many dems are going to be voting for RR too.

Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:41 PM (BOesr)

242 Sandy helped Obama initially but last few days not so much.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:41 PM (hlUJY)

243 Corey Booker...you know, having good Dems to compete against is no sin.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 01:41 PM (HKknX)

244
169 The problem with the 2010 comparison, wheatie, is a little bit of enthusiasm goes a long way in off years.

Everybody gets more motivated in the presidential--us and them. ...

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at November 05, 2012 01:24 PM (WbGW2)

----------

I know what you're saying, NK.
But in 2006, the enthusiasm was on the Dems side...and that carried through to 2008.

This year, we've had shows of enthusiasm on 'our side', like the Wisconsin elections and the turnout on Chick-fil-A Day.
So...I'm optimistic that there is a quiet determination going on out there, to vote this sonuvabitch out.


Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 01:41 PM (ICEh3)

245 If people only saw the raw video of what is going on in NYC, they would not give O a bounce out of that damn storm.

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:41 PM (bgzAd)

246 Too bad the RCP average still has that fucking outlier NJ O+5 poll skewing the results to O. They should drop that poll. Small sample, total outlier.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:42 PM (hlUJY)

247 If they want to remove the Electoral College , I say let 'em !

It's going to get real expensive traveling from one coast to the other on our New Toll Roads...

Posted by: AmericanDawg at November 05, 2012 01:42 PM (XIsD/)

248
114 *** correction, foxnation with 2 big boob pieces

Are they about Obama Biden?

Posted by: I'm the honey Badger, BITCH! at November 05, 2012 01:42 PM (Wy05x)

249 Seems like all the pollsters are playig it safe now...showing a "Tie" so whoever wins ... they will be "right'

I hope Romney wins by a big margin and proves everything the pundits think they know, wrong.

Posted by: The Jackhole at November 05, 2012 01:42 PM (nTgAI)

250 If the Ras party ID is close to right then ... holy smokes ... these polls are even more whack.

Posted by: Honey Badger at November 05, 2012 01:42 PM (GvYeG)

251 I honestly don't buy a bounce from Sandy, I really don't. I think Romney lost some momentum, but I don't buy there's a single person in America that saw a hurricane and went "well in that case, I'm voting for Obama!" Not one.

We talk only of repubs and independents voting for RR, I wonder how many dems are going to be voting for RR too.

I dunno, 5% maybe? Some will definitely cross over, but the Democrats have lost so many people to independent or Republican party (and green, etc) that they're pretty much down to the true believers and yellow dog guys.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:42 PM (r4wIV)

252 >>jasondpeery
‏@jasondpeery
Indys swinging back to Romney: Rasmussen (+17), CNN (+22), Monmouth (+16), ARG (+12). @keder @kesgardner, @KarlRove, @DavidLimbaugh @NolteNC

The race certainly isn't in the bag but if Romney loses with this kind of national Independent support it's only because millions of Republicans stayed home.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 05, 2012 01:43 PM (TMB3S)

253 Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at November 05, 2012 01:40 PM (XrGn

Why the Fuck would you even include "Registered Voters" ? to give a Bone to the ObamaBOTS

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:43 PM (ck76k)

254 Monmouth Poll has it tied at 48, with a Dem +4 sample. Romney up with Independents by 16.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:43 PM (2zM0P)

255 233 - "2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008"

Makes no sense especially when you look at the party breakdown:

D - 2008: 39%, 2012: 35% (-4%)
I - 2008: 31%, 2012: 29% (-2%)
R - 2008: 29%, 2012: 36% (+7%)
D/LD - 2008: 54%, 2012: 46% (-8%)
R/LR - 2008: 42%, 2012: 49% (+7%)

Posted by: Sigh at November 05, 2012 01:43 PM (cynHT)

256 Sandy definitely gave Obama a bounce which sucks. As CK says, Obama is the luckiest politician he has ever seen.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:44 PM (hlUJY)

257 What did the polls look like in 2010? Huh? I hate polls. Won't even read the good ones. They lie like this administration. Waste of my time (putting on stompy boots).

Have faith, peoples:
1) 2010 elections stomping by GOP
2) Chick-fil-A day
3) Polls are stupid eleventies!!!11! Carter was supposed to beat Reagan. Gore was supposed to beat Bush. Kerry was supposed to beat Bush, etc.
4) Voter enthusiasm for Romney/Ryan
5) Independent voters+++
6) Voters who did not vote McCain in 2008 will vote
7) Evangelicals voting Romney/Ryan
Pray. Vote. Pray. Repeat Squared.
Proclamation of Dame Christy, Redneck Queen, Fifth of November 2012

Who is this whiny person on Rush? Ugh. Smack her (Denise! Stay away from #ChristyBReadyToRiotAtLeastProvacation

I am currently debating wearing my Romney/Ryan button behind enemy lines at TJ Maxx. Shall I choose serenity for Christmas shopping or inciting riot? I am ready to riot. Serenity now.

Oh! After the election I want buttons that say "Ask me about Benghazi" and "Benghazi is Obama's Watergate" and "Obama Left Four in Benghazi Behind."
Are y'all with me? I will wear these everywhere.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, raving lunatic about Benghazi at November 05, 2012 01:44 PM (baL2B)

258 The one good thing about today's final Ras tracking poll. It had showed a 48-48 tie the last few days, so I like it trending back Romney over the weekend. Change in the mo...

Posted by: Honey Badger at November 05, 2012 01:44 PM (GvYeG)

259 Posted by: JackStraw at November 05, 2012 01:43 PM (TMB3S)
And they aren't !! crawl across Broken glass on fire with radioactive material thrown in to vote for R/R & against the Socialist

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:44 PM (ck76k)

260

How accurate were the polls in the Wisconsin recall elections?

Does anyone remember?

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 01:44 PM (ICEh3)

261 2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008"

Makes no sense especially when you look at the party breakdown:

perhaps they reason some people only vote in presidential elections

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:44 PM (Dnbau)

262 If Romney has closed the gender gap and is kicking some obama ass with independents, then all the polls are fubar because Romney should be way ahead

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:45 PM (79ueO)

263 Corey Booker...you know, having good Dems to compete against is no sin.

I dunno, I'd love to have an election of George Washington vs Thomas Jefferson. How can you lose?

I'd love to have a Democrat running that I could vote for, that would be so good for America.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:45 PM (r4wIV)

264 Stunned that the pollsters are ignoring the fact that their own polls are showing a Romney landslide with independents. A lead that big shows you which campaign has the enthusiam and enthusiam = turnout.

Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:45 PM (2zM0P)

265 You gotta remember that pollsters used to be able to reach 30% of the people they called. That response rate is down to 9%. These polls are basically focused on people with nothing else to do at 4 pm on a Thursday than answer 50 poll questions.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (hlUJY)

266 262
If Romney has closed the gender gap and is kicking some obama ass with
independents, then all the polls are fubar because Romney should be way
ahead

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:45 PM (79ueO)

All polls are fubar and have been since 2000. #HoneyBadger

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, raving lunatic about Benghazi at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (baL2B)

267 At least post election if O wins we can bust out the popcorn for the Benghzai hearings and watch them squirm/resign...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (bgzAd)

268 Thanks Charles Taylor. I replied to them with what you said. It boils down to "Win the cities and forget the rest" if we go purely popular vote.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (4nG/u)

269 I have this odd theory that people got turned off by politics/ads/etc. about 2 weeks ago.

My strategy, therefore, has been to not mention a politician, but engage in discussions around things that are not directly related to, but are directly traceable to politicians.

Sandy and Behghazi invariably make Barky look less than optimal.

I also delight in asking females why men are mocked for thinking with their penis, and smart women are encouraged to vote with their lady parts.

The second one gets me a look of stunned silence.

Posted by: Keith Olbermann at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (Qxe/p)

270 Team Romney ought to consider buying last minute infomercial for Tonight. Low-info voters are easily swayed by such gimicks.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (UypUQ)

271 Yes, these pollsters KNOW Obama cannot lose indies by 15 points and win, and yet there it is.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (hlUJY)

272 I've said it before, but this is how the sampling bias is occurring.

The polls began to shift in the last week as we moved into early voting in most of the states. What became apparent is that Democrats had been instructed to answer "yes" when asked if they had already voted, regardless of whether they had or not.

This automatically moved these people into the Likely Voter pool and inflated the samples. If you look at all of these results they look like Registered Voter polls. I suspect that even Gallup has now succumbed to this tactic, making their rigorous LV screen obsolete.

The final Pew poll included 89% of the sample in the likely voter pool. That is 27% higher than the participation rate in 2008.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (JxIkO)

273 Just saw a friend post on Facebook that the Electoral College is no longer needed because of technology.

The Electoral College is another inspired invention by those farmer-citizen geniuses who founded this country, and we are lucky to have it. I know that because Democrats are against it.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 01:47 PM (FcR7P)

274 Someone, please, anyone. Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.

Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:47 PM (BOesr)

275 Makes no sense especially when you look at the party breakdown:

They're talking strictly demographics, not partisan divide. Basically, they're expecting a roughly equivalent number of people to vote in 2012 as did in 2008, and from roughly the same demographic groups.

Which is how most people had "gamed out" the election, more or less.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:48 PM (8y9MW)

276 Team Romney ought to consider buying last minute infomercial for Tonight. Low-info voters are easily swayed by such gimicks.

I suppose it's too late in the game for free phones...

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at November 05, 2012 01:48 PM (vbh31)

277 In the WI recall, the last RAS was Walker +5, Walker won by 6.8

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:48 PM (bgzAd)

278 Obama says we've made "real progress but not done".

Can someone point me to "real progress" that isn't factually or statistically challenged?

Proof this President is not in touch with the electorate.

We need this to be "done"- don't we?

Posted by: marcus at November 05, 2012 01:48 PM (GGCsk)

279 The only way to put your faith in a poll is to put your faith in your sword and your sword in the poll.

Posted by: teh Cossack at November 05, 2012 01:48 PM (HBU8E)

280 Posted by: tofer732 at November 05, 2012 01:45 PM (2zM0P)


Nope !! they will be their reasoning ! that a HUGE WAVE of I's came out & voted for R/R & we just didn't foresee that

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:48 PM (ck76k)

281 Is Gallup final poll tomorrow like Rasmussen?

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:48 PM (hlUJY)

282 Every time a Dem loses there are calls to scrap the electoral college.

Posted by: steevy at November 05, 2012 01:49 PM (9XBK2)

283 @263...exactly.

Very good for America. A lot of Dems vote Obama party line buy would prefer a Booker.

That would also make people less angry.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 01:49 PM (HKknX)

284 233 - "2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008"Makes no sense especially when you look at the party breakdown - 2008: 39%, 2012: 35% (-4%)I - 2008: 31%, 2012: 29% (-2%)R - 2008: 29%, 2012: 36% (+7%)D/LD - 2008: 54%, 2012: 46% (-8%)R/LR - 2008: 42%, 2012: 49% (+7%)
Posted by: Sigh at November 05, 2012 01:43 PM (cynHT)

Makes zero sense !

Posted by: The Jackhole at November 05, 2012 01:49 PM (nTgAI)

285 The Electoral College is another inspired invention by those farmer-citizen geniuses who founded this country, and we are lucky to have it. I know that because Democrats are against it.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 01:47 PM (FcR7P)


I favor a repeal of the 17th Amendment, too.

It would force the issue of local electoral responsibility.

Posted by: Keith Olbermann at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (Qxe/p)

286 220
Just saw a friend post on Facebook that the Electoral College is no longer needed because of technology.


The EC is a backstop against mass voter fraud. If we were a pure popular vote system, the machine in Chicago would have every incentive to cheat. As of right now, the incentive is diminished, because at worst they only need to cheat "just enough" to tip the vote in Illinois (thinking Nixon/Kennedy). With the EC, no single city has the corrupting incentive to fake up a 100,000 votes. That would change in a pure popular vote system. Imagine the type of fraud Baltimore could cook up, when they suddenly had a reason to create fake Obama votes for a national scale.

Posted by: wooga at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (vjyZP)

287
and no promises this time about closing Gitmo?

that's weird. what's weirder is that no one even brings up the broken promise from 2008

Posted by: soothsayer at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (jUytm)

288 @Dave in Fla what is your Twitter handle, would like to follow you.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (hlUJY)

289 Someone, please, anyone. Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.
Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:47 PM (BOesr)


they are not torturing us with the NHL this year.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (79ueO)

290 94 Stand back bitchez. We're about to drop the house on a mo-fo.
Posted by: The Catholic Church. at November 05, 2012 01:14 PM (lnvhI)


This is why I love you people.....

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (P6H+d)

291 Someone, please, anyone. Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.

Days Left Before Obama Is Gone.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (FcR7P)

292 Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.

My daughter is now potty-trained. (She was 1).

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (8y9MW)

293 Go to DU or Ball-Juice or Kos. Look at what those freaks are prepared to do for their Messiah -- some have been working for 48 hrs straight already! If we don't work as hard, we will lose. I'm working phones today and tomorrow. JOIN ME, MORONS!

Posted by: Bang Out Of Order at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (1H47k)

294 274 Someone, please, anyone. Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.

Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:47 PM (BOesr)


About 10% of the electorate has become self-aware (?)

Posted by: Keith Olbermann at November 05, 2012 01:51 PM (Qxe/p)

295 Final RCP average Angle vs. Reid

Angle +2.7

Final Result

Reid + 5.6

Posted by: JackStraw at November 05, 2012 01:51 PM (TMB3S)

296 It would be fantastic if people could stop bashing Christie for putting aside politics "too much"

Get a brain. At least, get a brain stem.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at November 05, 2012 01:51 PM (X3lox)

297 OT Ret Adm Lyons on Fox now. Looks to be a man in his mid-eighties (36 years in the Fleet, retired 20) so there is just the hint of shakiness there, until you hear his words which are well-informed and forceful. But enough of that. Know how when you first start talking, sometimes there's just a fragment of a word, as you get going? So Megan hands to him, and the first noise out the crusty old battleship sailor's mouth are "This shit..."

Then he started over, briskly, and I was all ears.

Posted by: comatus at November 05, 2012 01:51 PM (qaVK+)

298 @Dave_in_Fla Bill

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 01:51 PM (JxIkO)

299 John Ellis says if Obama gets 36% of the white vote, he loses, if he gets 40% he wins, and in-between it's gonna be a late night...

cracka-ass crackas.

Posted by: Reverend Al at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (60GaT)

300 My daughter is now potty-trained. (She was 1).
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (8y9MW)

NOt all progress is good. Soon she'll be driving and have your credit card

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (79ueO)

301 Serious question, do you think the slight drop in GOP support in latest polls could be because Republican voters were out of the house doing GOTV?

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (UypUQ)

302 275 - Ah, ok.

Posted by: Sigh at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (cynHT)

303 291
Someone, please, anyone. Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.



Days Left Before Obama Is Gone.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (FcR7P)

Barky's mole is twitchier.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, raving lunatic about Benghazi at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (baL2B)

304 Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.

Four dead in Benghazi is not a change for the better. Pressure from Twitter and other outside venues forcing the MFM to actually talk about it? That IS better.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 01:53 PM (4df7R)

305 NOt all progress is good. Soon she'll be driving and have your credit card

Well, on the later, I'm safe- I have no credit cards. On the former... I'm a man of prayer.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 05, 2012 01:53 PM (8y9MW)

306 And she will be saying "Dad can I borrow the car so I can go pick Josh up at the job fair?"

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 05, 2012 01:53 PM (4nG/u)

307 I also delight in asking females why men are mocked for thinking with their penis, and smart women are encouraged to vote with their lady parts.

Aside from being rude, that is a good point.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:53 PM (r4wIV)

308 @Dave_in_Fla grats!

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at November 05, 2012 01:53 PM (hlUJY)

309 RACISM

Posted by: Why the Polls Were Wrong at November 05, 2012 01:53 PM (F/z7g)

310 I want a blowout for a couple of reasons.
1) Increase house lead and take the Senate
2) Begin the renewing of my faith in the American people.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (PNi9V)

311 Oh,and I've never really liked Christie.He's a big government giant fat ass.He's better than what they usually get in NJ but that's it.He's also a dhimmi.

Posted by: steevy at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (9XBK2)

312 Can anyone explain to me what the binder joke is? I know the origin. I just don't get the joke.

Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (YPdze)

313 Oh, and people may say asking for sane Democrats is like being a troll...NO, if we had sane Democrats the entire country would be skewing right, not left.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (HKknX)

314 Barky's mole is twitchier.
Posted by: ChristyBlinky, raving lunatic about Benghazi at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (baL2B)

And it was on the other side?

Posted by: Igor at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (79ueO)

315 Serious question, do you think the slight drop in GOP support in latest polls could be because Republican voters were out of the house doing GOTV?

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (UypUQ)

Who wants to participate in a poll?

Who trusts pollsters among our crowd?

Would you participate, or hang up?

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (Dnbau)

316
Just saw a friend post on Facebook that the Electoral College is no longer needed because of technology.


The Electoral College is about federalism. We don't have national elections of any sort, at all. Nothing. No national referenda. No national anything. We are a Federal Republic. Each state gets its chunk of the vote to apportion as it sees fit.

These fucking lefty douches really drive me nuts. That's why I have no desire to have to share a nation with them. They aren't worthy of the benefits of civilization that they constantly work so hard to take apart.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (X3lox)

317 and the first noise out the crusty old battleship sailor's mouth are "This shit..."



That's awesome.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (VtjlW)

318 Wonder if O is going to drop a bomb today and say he's forgiving all student loans...

Shocked he hasn't done it...

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (bgzAd)

319





Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 05, 2012 01:46 PM (JxIkO)




D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
That said, I love PPP. Especially how their OH EV sample today is 34% but it was 36% a week ago with 400k fewer and actual EVs

Posted by: Evilpens at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (ck76k)

320 Would you like a roll in the hay with Inga?

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (4nG/u)

321 and smart women are encouraged to vote with their lady parts.


You've got a really huge error in your premise there.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (ZKzrr)

322 Go to DU or Ball-Juice or Kos. Look at what those freaks are prepared to do for their Messiah -- some have been working for 48 hrs straight already!

The cardiac arrest they'll suffer as a resort of overextending themselves will serve our purposes handily. Especially if they're sustaining themselves solely on Cheetos and Red Bull.

GOTV.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (4df7R)

323 So these polls are telling me that all of sudden people now like Obama and want four more years? We were warned that these BS polls would show a Obama comeback as we got closer to election day to project the illusion that Commie Boy surging. Nothing has changed....Now people have decided to vote for Obama?I don't think so....Obama Psycological warfare to make us think he is unbeatable and give up. Well Obama can go to hell where he belongs on 6 Novemeber. Obama crowds are 2,000 at the most and Romney 30,000 and Obama's going to win? I hate the news channels and all these traitorous polling firms. Rush is right......If you cannot stomach the mainstream media lies for the next several days, turn the crap off. Obama is going down and going down hard ! I have and feel very confident !!

Posted by: Wall_E at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (48wze)

324 they are not torturing us with the NHL this year.
Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:50 PM (79ueO)


---------------------------------------


Heh. I forgot about that. I'm voting for Baraka then.

Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (BOesr)

325 Barone says pollster need to consider different polling methods. They are old.

Posted by: Mo the girl at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (H3kAX)

326 @163: Bootlicker!

Posted by: Tim the Enchanter at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (izA2D)

327 I also delight in asking females why men are mocked for thinking with their penis, and smart women are encouraged to vote with their lady parts.

And any smart woman would answer, "The last person who encouraged me to vote with my lady parts got a kick to the crotch and a punch to the nose."

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 01:56 PM (4df7R)

328
297 OT Ret Adm Lyons on Fox now. Looks to be a man in his mid-eighties (36 years in the Fleet, retired 20) so there is just the hint of shakiness there, until you hear his words which are well-informed and forceful. But enough of that. Know how when you first start talking, sometimes there's just a fragment of a word, as you get going? So Megan hands to him, and the first noise out the crusty old battleship sailor's mouth are "This shit..."

Then he started over, briskly, and I was all ears.

----------

Thanks, comatus.
Was watching that too...and wasn't sure that's what I heard.

He was great!
He said that the way the media is covering this..."borders on criminal".

Posted by: wheatie at November 05, 2012 01:56 PM (ICEh3)

329 @312...there is no joke.

The only RNC speech I watched was a black woman who Romney had hired who seemed incredibly enthusiastic about Mitt.

People forget, that lady has to go home to her black relatives and deal with what she said. She's not saying that for fun.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 01:56 PM (HKknX)

330 Someone, please, anyone. Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.

I feel less pervy ogling Kate Upton. Wait....did you say better?

Posted by: Lurking Canuck at November 05, 2012 01:56 PM (NF2Bf)

331 Would you participate, or hang up?
Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (Dnbau)

I hang up, but that is a practiced approach from hanging up on my liberal sister

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 01:56 PM (79ueO)

332 Can anyone explain to me what the binder joke is? I know the origin. I just don't get the joke.
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (YPdze)


Nobody does, that's why it's funny. The left thought it was this awesomely hilarious Romney gaffe. It wasn't. So we tease them.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 01:57 PM (4df7R)

333 I wish I had some of your guys' certainty about the polls being off.

i think Romney can win mind, but I'm not seeing landslide. If I am wrong that'll be super though.

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 01:57 PM (60GaT)

334 You've got a really huge error in your premise there.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 05, 2012 01:55 PM (ZKzrr)


If that's true, your part of the country is airing totally different Dem commercials.

Posted by: Keith Olbermann at November 05, 2012 01:57 PM (Qxe/p)

335
she's referring to the word 'smart', dummy

Posted by: soothsayer at November 05, 2012 01:58 PM (jUytm)

336 And any smart woman would answer, "The last person who encouraged me to vote with my lady parts got a kick to the crotch and a punch to the nose."

Well its a psychological appeal; all women want to be thought of as smart, so it helps shift the response from the woman he's talking to.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 01:58 PM (r4wIV)

337 SEALS having voters backs at specific locations to make sure there is not a repeat of the Black Panthers intimidation of voters.



they have a facebook page called get out the vet - its to counteract the new black panther party

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:58 PM (Dnbau)

338 Serious question, do you think the slight drop in GOP support in latest polls could be because Republican voters were out of the house doing GOTV? Posted by: Serious Cat at November 05, 2012 01:52 PM (UypUQ)

I can tell you that my phone has been ringing off the hook for the last three months with pollsters, campaign advocates, and PACs. I never bother to pick up. I'm thinking a lot of the GOP people who DO pick up decided not to bother this weekend. "They already know who I'm voting for, dammit. Leave me alone!"

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 01:58 PM (4df7R)

339
subtly is a lost art

Posted by: soothsayer at November 05, 2012 01:59 PM (jUytm)

340 I hope by saying win the cities resonates with him since all of us live in flyover country and not in any big city.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 05, 2012 01:59 PM (4nG/u)

341 Who wants to participate in a poll?



Who trusts pollsters among our crowd?



Would you participate, or hang up?

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (Dnbau)

Phone ringing off the hook here in MI...I bet we averaged 11-12 calls the last 3 days...make it stop!

Posted by: Red Shirt at November 05, 2012 01:59 PM (FIDMq)

342 "DO.



SOMETHING.



MORE.



USEFUL.
"


Uh. I live in a Red State. I come here to read the posts. Please don't yell at me.


Posted by: Bart, waiting for SMOD at November 05, 2012 01:59 PM (he2LC)

343
subtlety

i hate this word





Posted by: soothsayer at November 05, 2012 02:00 PM (jUytm)

344 332 Can anyone explain to me what the binder joke is? I know the origin. I just don't get the joke.
Posted by: Truman North, 315-223 at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (YPdze)

Nobody does, that's why it's funny. The left thought it was this awesomely hilarious Romney gaffe. It wasn't. So we tease them.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 01:57 PM (4df7R)


I got the impression that (for the first half of) the next day, the Left wanted to connect it to a "Fifty Shades Of Gray" meme.

BIG fail.

Posted by: Keith Olbermann at November 05, 2012 02:00 PM (Qxe/p)

345 The binders thing is just so weird, that is the most out of touch, odd thing in this election. That's part of what gives me so much confidence: they are so totally in an other world they think that was a big gaffe when it doesn't even make sense to themselves.

They live in a world so full of buzz words and dog whistles they are barely able to communicate with ordinary people. You cannot win that way.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 02:00 PM (r4wIV)

346 @328 Yes, that was moving. He seemed angry, firm, and full of purpose. I'd give him the Iowa class and stand the hell back. And before he was done, as the saying goes, a certain language would be spoken only in Hell.

Posted by: comatus at November 05, 2012 02:00 PM (qaVK+)

347 I hope by saying win the cities resonates with him since all of us live in flyover country and not in any big city.

Being an artsy-fartsy type, he probably longs to live on the banks of the Seine or in Greenwich Village so likely not.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 02:01 PM (r4wIV)

348 They live in a world so full of buzz words and dog whistles they are barely able to communicate with ordinary people. You cannot win that way.

On the other hand, they can have a positively ripping conversation with a pod of dolphins.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 02:02 PM (4df7R)

349 341
Who wants to participate in a poll?


Who trusts pollsters among our crowd?


Would you participate, or hang up?



Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 01:54 PM (Dnbau)

------
Here in Ohio, I received one call asking who I was voting for. It was from Organizing for America. I rather enjoyed telling them that I was voting for Romney and Josh Mandel.

Of course, now I wonder if I should have lied to them to make them think Obama was safer in Ohio than he is. At least that way, I wouldn't have had to see so many BS Obama commercials.

Posted by: Mullaney at November 05, 2012 02:03 PM (s8XaI)

350 OT but some choad (who writes for "The American Conservative" no less, but they hate the GOP more than anything cuz like, Romney will bomb bomb bomb Iran or something) named Michael Tracey claimed that conservatives' focus on Libya was really a racialized attack on Obama's "foreign-ness."

that's the problem when you're a prog convinced everything the GOP does is about race, you say dumb ish like this.

Posted by: JDP at November 05, 2012 02:03 PM (60GaT)

351 Can you all explain Nevada to me? How will this state go Blue? Obama insulted Vegas and the state has been in depression for 5 years with very few signs of recovery...

How does THAT not go for Romney/Ryan?

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 02:03 PM (bgzAd)

352 How can obama say on TV like he just did on that deficits went down?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 02:04 PM (79ueO)

353 I expect in the end Nevada will go for Romney. I think there will be a few really surprising flipped states, but I'm not going to predict which.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 02:04 PM (r4wIV)

354 345
The binders thing is just so weird, that is the most out of touch, odd
thing in this election.


Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 02:00 PM (r4wIV)
-----I think the "binders" thing was the first time I really thought Romney was going to win this. If that lame comment was the best they could get out of the third debate, then they've got nothing...

Posted by: Mullaney at November 05, 2012 02:05 PM (s8XaI)

355 >>>Uh. I live in a Red State.

Uh, lame. They have Victory Centers in Red States where you call up people in swing states. You can also do this from home.

Posted by: ace at November 05, 2012 02:05 PM (LCRYB)

356
http://www.suffolk.edu/offices/54254.html



Mitt Romney has a path to 270 electoral votes, but no room for error,
according to Suffolk University’s analysis of bellwether areas in the
key swing states of Ohio and New Hampshire.

Romney held leads in Lake County, Ohio and in the towns of Epping and
Milford, New Hampshire. The states of Ohio and New Hampshire are key to
Romney’s path to victory, and a must hold for President Barack Obama to
stave him off.

A bellwether is an area of a state that closely mirrors a statewide
electoral outcome using similar election types from previous elections
and other data. Suffolk University’s bellwether model has been used
since 2002 and is 95 percent accurate in predicting outcomes but is not
designed to predict margin of victory. All bellwether analyses carry a
margin of error similar to a statewide poll.

Posted by: tmitsss at November 05, 2012 02:05 PM (rdav6)

357 I want to be poled!

Posted by: Sandra Fluke at November 05, 2012 02:05 PM (Z7toi)

358 Can you all explain Nevada to me? How will this state go Blue? Obama insulted Vegas and the state has been in depression for 5 years with very few signs of recovery...

How does THAT not go for Romney/Ryan?
Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 02:03 PM (bgzAd)

UNIONS

Posted by: Thunderb at November 05, 2012 02:06 PM (Dnbau)

359 Someone, please, anyone. Tell me what has changed for the better since 2010.
Posted by: Soona at November 05, 2012 01:47 PM (BOesr)
-------------------------------------------------------
Kate Upton!

Posted by: Truck Monkey at November 05, 2012 02:07 PM (jucos)

360 Who wants to participate in a poll?

There is a particular click pattern that you get with mass marketing. I can usually hang up before the phone-banker even gets to his phone.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 02:08 PM (FcR7P)

361 I pray that the majority of this country has not gone full retard. I really don't want togo John Galt and more.

To borrow from Golda Mier. I can forgive them for voting for Obama but I can't forgive them for making me think like them and abandoning my country.

Posted by: polynikes at November 05, 2012 02:08 PM (m2CN7)

362 One thing I haven't seen mentioned. Everyone keeps saying "dems are ahead of GOP in early voting."

Well, if they had allowed early voting in Indiana in 1980, I would have been one of those counted as an early Carter vote. I was a registered democrat.

Except I pulled the lever for Reagan.

Ace, I have done everything I can. I signed up to volunteer, but Indiana is swamped with Romney volunteers and no one called me. I have donated more to Romney than to all other presidential candidates in my lifetime. I even donated to the GOP Senate, the College Republicans, the GOP House, and I have given over $300 to the RNC (because I love that nice boy Reince).

I am 64 years old. I am here with a sick granddaughter today. So my last and only contribution is to ask people to pray.

Saint Michael the Archangel,

defend us in battle.

Be our protection against the wickedness and snares of
the devil.

May God rebuke him, we humbly pray;

and do Thou, O Prince of the Heavenly Host -

by the Divine Power of God -

cast into hell, satan and all the evil spirits,

who roam throughout the world seeking the ruin of souls.
Amen.

It worked for the first debate, in case you guys forgot.

So pray.



Posted by: Miss Marple at November 05, 2012 02:08 PM (GoIUi)

363 I think the "binders" thing was the first time I really thought Romney was going to win this. If that lame comment was the best they could get out of the third debate, then they've got nothing...

It was beyond bizarre. I woke up the morning after the debate and turned on the interwebs, and there are these stories about Romney's gaaaaaaafffffeee about women in binders, and I was like, "WTF? I was watching the debate. I was reading the liveblog. WTH are they talking about?"

Regressives seem to have trouble identifying metaphors, allegories, similes and examples. In other words they just don't get human speech. When Romney said he had a bunch of "women in binders," he did not mean he put women in a binder. Just like when I say I spit on the SCOAMT and all he stands for, I do not mean I literally spat on TFG.

The difference, of course, is that I would love to spit on Obama, and would do so eagerly if given the opportunity.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 02:09 PM (4df7R)

364 267 At least post election if O wins we can bust out the popcorn for the Benghzai hearings and watch them squirm/resign...>
>
No. We can squirm while Zero pardons everybody involved and the only people arrested are the whistleblowers.

Nothing good can happen if he's re-elected. Nothing.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 05, 2012 02:09 PM (YmPwQ)

365 40% will vote for Obama no matter what. This includes all those who know who signs their paycheck so to speak. We can name them but the list is too long. This also includes the small special groups like gays and new immigrants. These people actually believe in “socialism”.

Another 3% to 5% will vote Obama because of ignorance.

Total 45%

To win will take voter fraud on a scale never seen before.

Will the DNC do it? Even if they know they will be caught?

I think, yes they will if it is only 1 or 2 states. If it is 5 or 7 or 9 states, then no they will not.

2% are going to vote for some other candidate for whatever reason.

53% are going to vote Romney.

It all boils down to how many votes the DNC can manufacture, without everyone knowing they cheated.

How many cities can they have a turn out of 105% before questions started being asked by normal everyday people. Those who do not particularly pay attention to politics.

God Bless,
Snuph

Posted by: Snuph at November 05, 2012 02:10 PM (eNXVL)

366 352
How can obama say on TV like he just did on that deficits went down?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at November 05, 2012 02:04 PM (79ueO)
----Because he jacked up spending in 2009 with the stimulus, and then kept spending nearly as much after that, but not quite as high as 2009, so therefore, he cut the deficit!It's math!

Posted by: Mullaney at November 05, 2012 02:11 PM (s8XaI)

367 C'mon, morons. Get out there tomorrow. Win one for the ewok.

Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 05, 2012 02:13 PM (JqOLy)

368 I think the most obvious indicator of fraud trying to manipulate an election is that they only fight when its close. What, if the margin is big those votes didn't matter, disenfranchisement is okay? Its fine if the Eeevil Republicans stole an election if they did it by a big margin?

No, its just they know they can cheat and defraud their way to a win with lawyers and 'discovered' ballots if its close enough. If its not, they know they can't so they don't try.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 02:13 PM (r4wIV)

369 Also, this election Mia Love will win...dude, she scares Democrats shitless.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 02:14 PM (HKknX)

370 How can obama say on TV like he just did on that deficits went down?

It's the 2012 "Lie To Me" Obama Tour.

Just got an Obama email via my ex-gf's mother (who seems to forget that not everybody is Socialist). Oh, my God, they want something to believe in!

"1) Got Osama Bin Laden - check
2) Unemployment rate 7.8 - check
3) 1.3 million jobs created with no GOP help - check
4) 22 months of job and economic growth - check"

etc. It goes on for 16 points. Curiously, his Peace Prize is counted as an accomplishment.

Posted by: t-bird at November 05, 2012 02:15 PM (FcR7P)

371 Win one for the ewok!

That video in the sidebar has to be the only video that I laughed at so hard, but no one else I know would laugh at. they wold say WTF?

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 02:15 PM (HKknX)

372 No matter what I still cannot comprehend how this election could ever be close considering how completely incompetent O is...

The american electorate are a bunch of dolts for even allowing this to be close.

Posted by: TFC3Tweets at November 05, 2012 02:16 PM (bgzAd)

373 Guys, if you live in a swing state, volunteer to work the strike lists. It's actually fun.

People think you're a VIP and nobody yells at you and no dogs chase you.


Posted by: PJ at November 05, 2012 02:16 PM (DQHjw)

374 According to Brad Thor in an article over at the Blaze, the Obama campaign is going to declare early victory to try and demoralize Romney supporters.



Posted by: MarkC at November 05, 2012 02:17 PM (Kf68R)

375 Romney held leads in Lake County, Ohio and in the towns of Epping and Milford, New Hampshire. The states of Ohio and New Hampshire are key to Romney’s path to victory, and a must hold for President Barack Obama to stave him off.

Just for information's sake, Milford is in Hillsborough County and is right near the Mass border. Epping is in Rockingham county out near the Seacoast.These two counties are more densely populated and affluent than the more northerly counties (Hillsborough county alone has our two biggest cities, Manchester and Nashua), and are more likely to house refugees from the Communist Commonwealth of Massachusetts who commute back to Mass for work.
I can't even pay attention to the RCP averages for NH's numbers. They include the ridiculous UNH/WMUR and NEC polls, which are so mind-bogglingly skewed they're laughable.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at November 05, 2012 02:18 PM (4df7R)

376 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oWnPI3Yo2b0&feature=relmfu

Seriously, this person says "free to fail" and it sounds honest, genuine, and GOOD.

I am a beer-drinking moron, but I love Mormons.

Posted by: Sexypig at November 05, 2012 02:18 PM (HKknX)

377 the Obama campaign is going to declare early victory to try and demoralize Romney supporters.

And by "the Obama campaign" you mean "the legacy media covering the election?" Of course. Nobody should even turn on a news source until Wednesday. It simply does not matter until then, so just ignore it all and go on with your lives. Play with your kids. Take a walk. See a movie. Take a drive if you can afford it. Volunteer to help some elderly people clear leaves off their lawn. Read a book - one a moron wrote, preferably.

Just don't turn on the election coverage. What's the point? If Romney wins, he's still won Wednesday. If not, it will not change if you watch.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 05, 2012 02:20 PM (r4wIV)

378 Just don't turn on the election coverage. What's the point? If Romney
wins, he's still won Wednesday. If not, it will not change if you
watch.

---

This. And you can always watch Tingles go nuts on Youtube.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 05, 2012 02:22 PM (WMsq+)

379 372
No matter what I still cannot comprehend how this election could ever be close considering how completely incompetent O is...



The american electorate are a bunch of dolts for even allowing this to be close.

-------

That's the part that baffles me as well. This should not even be close, and wile there was room for improvement, I don't think it's because Romney has run a poor campaign (it was early on, but he got much better). I'm worried that our electorate has pretty much gone full-on socialist retard at this point. Everyone wants their free shit. I know 20-something college graduates who spent 8 years as undergraduates, racking up student loan debt used mainly for bar tabs and weed, who can't find jobs now but think they're entitled to having their student loan debt forgiven, and will vote Obama in the belief that he will do it. In other words, they don't care about getting a good job to pay off the debt that they rightfully owe, they just want someone else to pay it off. It's sad really.

Posted by: Mullaney at November 05, 2012 02:22 PM (s8XaI)

380 I think Romney wins and the margin is going to be bigger than Gallup and Rasmussen are reporting, but I do think the Sandy/Christie nonsense stopped what would have been a real curb stomping.

I hope that fat fuck is happy, it may cost us the Senate and our ability to repeal Obamacare. I won't shed any tears if he loses his next election in 2013, and good luck raising money from your fellow Republicans.

Posted by: McAdams at November 05, 2012 02:25 PM (FCOXd)

381 It's little thing, and only one point (which means probably nothing given MOE), but Obama increased by 2 points among likely, and only 1 point among registered voters.

I was polled once, but can't remember what it was for. The pollster was shocked by how little money I earned (and it is plenty to live on). I earn even less now, (thanks to a family which acts like Obama does towards his). I am OK either way the vote goes, but would MUCH rather prefer Romney. I abhor Obama.

Posted by: Baldy at November 05, 2012 02:26 PM (opS9C)

382 #260

IIRC, poll average had it for Walker, actually, though barely, and I think the actual final result was a few points to the right of the poll averages.

If what we're seeing now is a repeat of the Walker polling, Romney will take this handily.

Posted by: looking closely at November 05, 2012 02:27 PM (6Q9g2)

383 #374

If Obama wants to depress Dem turnout declaring victory early, great.

Posted by: looking closely at November 05, 2012 02:29 PM (6Q9g2)

384 @363: Why waste perfectly good spit when urine is available? And in far greater quantities?

Posted by: Tim the Enchanter at November 05, 2012 02:32 PM (izA2D)

385 375

That's basically been the game plan for the last 12 months. Make Obama's victory seem inevitable. It almost worked, conservatives are suckers for pessimism.

Posted by: McAdams at November 05, 2012 02:33 PM (FCOXd)

386 #385 This is why the GOP has been working the early voting. They will have those votes already banked, and they will have fewer people to convince to get to the polls. My guess is that will try and encourage those people voting on election day to vote early.

However, any attempts to call the race early in the Eastern Time Zone should be met with scorn and derision. Burn up network and affiliate phone lines. Harass reporters on Twitter. Do NOT let them play this game!

They may try to pull a 2000 recount, but this time we are organized and prepared. No longer are we naifs who think that everything is as portrayed on TV.

Nope. We are gonna fight until there is nothing left to give.

Posted by: Miss Marple at November 05, 2012 02:41 PM (GoIUi)

387
Yes, Ace, a lead is a lead. And a decreased by 4 point lead is a decreased lead. Not a good turn of events, no matter how I'd like it spun.

Posted by: LiberTea at November 05, 2012 05:58 PM (XC3Mz)






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