CAC'S FINAL CALL - 2012 President, House, Senate

Meatball always wins.

Anyway, here's where I put my reputation on the line, and declare who I think the winner is. Since I don't have a reputation, I'm already coming out ahead.

Without further ado, the winner on November 2nd is:

CACandMRSCAC

Mrs CAC, who doesn't have to listen to me drone on and on about polls for at least six months

You can thank her for the long hours I had devoted to reporting on Wisconsin, along with my dedication to covering results for election night. On both occasions the task of information collection even with volunteers has been and will be daunting, but she has encouraged me greatly through this whole process. Far from the political junkie I am, she has continued to push and prod, playing devils advocate at every opportunity, and will be assisting me directly on election night when I am making calls. Her ears will get a well-deserved rest. For now.


As for the election, here's how I see things.

House: Net +2 R to +1 D. Even in a good year for the Democrats it would be hard to flip control, with the redistricting and costly Presidential race sucking much of the "energ" and money out of the room for them. Ceding an incredible number of state assembly, senate and governors mansions in 2010 can set you back a bit.

Senate: Net +1 to +3 R. +3 R and a President Romney would mean the Senate is barely in Republican control. Thanks to self-inflicted wounds, the Republicans must run the table on the tossups: 4 out of Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana (a seat they hold), and Montana; plus acquire their current projected pickups in Nebraska and North Dakota. Holding Massachusetts is now a long shot, on par with flipping Connecticut.

President
I've been bouncing back and forth between two scenarios, odd because one is three times as likely.

If the results remain tight (75% chance)
Romney nabs between 257-295 in the tight scenario
Obama nabs between 281-243 in the tight scenario

Most-contested states are New Hampshire, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin.
Romney NH WI IA OH Obama (in terms of favored)

If the dam breaks (25% chance)
Romney nabs between 235-338
Obama nabs between 303-200

Under the blowout scenario, either Virginia and Colorado; or Pennsylvania, ME-2, Michigan and Nevada come into play. The first two are currently Romney's, the last four are Obama's. If these states for either candidate collapse, we are looking more along the lines of a comfortable win.

Final:
I give Romney between 271 and 277 electoral votes to Obama's 261 to 267 electoral votes. Splitting Wisconsin and Ohio in opposite directions, I give the Badger state (barely) to Romney, the Buckeye (barely) to Obama. New Hampshire goes to Romney, Nevada to Obama, and Iowa is a coin toss, in the truest sense of the expression. I couldn't decide on it, so hence the pussed-out range above. Colorado, Virginia, Florida and North Carolina go by wider margins to Romney. Pennsylvania and Michigan go by surprisingly close margins to Obama. Maine's 2nd congressional district goes to Obama by a far closer margin than the rest of the state. Connecticut, Minnesota, and Oregon come in close to their current polling averages.

I base this on polling, resource movements, on-the-ground reports, my research into Wisconsin during the recall, and, I'll admit, some bias. It has been a long, rough four years. I am putting my faith in the GOTV effort by Republicans on Election Day. President Obama holding on is a very real possibility and will be stopped only by the drive of Republicans to see him gone. In two days, we will know if that drive was strong enough.

Added: When the numbers come in from Ohio, keep the razor blades away for the first two hours. The Secretary of State has announced that the early vote is going up first in reporting, and if we go by polling it will be heavily Obama. Now, if it isn't...

Posted by: CAC at 06:52 PM



Comments

1 Where's the map?

Posted by: garrett at November 02, 2012 06:53 PM (pC7pC)

2 Nice.

Posted by: Truman North at November 02, 2012 06:53 PM (I2LwF)

3 No paisley map, no peace.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 02, 2012 06:54 PM (hBxxk)

4 I'm voting for Romney.

Posted by: Levitating Mass at November 02, 2012 06:55 PM (pC7pC)

5 & clueless Don't give up your day Job, Go read up on Michael Barrone

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 06:55 PM (ck76k)

6 Where's the map?

Posted by: garrett
---

The Misses ate it.

Posted by: sTevo at November 02, 2012 06:55 PM (VMcEw)

7 pretty woman Cac, what did you deserve to get her.
and boobehs!

i'm jealous.

and

Romney

Romney

Romney

Posted by: willow at November 02, 2012 06:56 PM (hX8cq)

8 So......your official prediction is that it is close.

CAC, the pollster who made the gutsy call.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 02, 2012 06:57 PM (OWjjx)

9 10 EV Win? even the MSM is outdoing that.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 02, 2012 06:57 PM (z1N6a)

10 tell Mrs. CAC thanks for her contribution to your contributions!

Posted by: the Butcher at November 02, 2012 06:57 PM (8g9qq)

11 CAC - Thanks.

Posted by: ZBBMcFate at November 02, 2012 06:57 PM (Hj9yW)

12 I was expecting the London Boys.

Posted by: t-bird at November 02, 2012 06:57 PM (FcR7P)

13 For voting for Romney, I guess the new meme will be to call all of us 'anti-loinists'

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 02, 2012 06:58 PM (94rak)

14 Ha! And what numbers are you using, my little boy? Obviously, not my REAL-TIME calculations that has Obama sucking Kal Penn's dick tonight at 98.68686868 %

Posted by: Nate Silver at November 02, 2012 06:58 PM (F6KtL)

15 I hope you're being conservative on purpose. And I'm not talking about ideology.


Thanks for the work, though. And for Mrs. CAC's forbearance.

Posted by: eastvalleyphx at November 02, 2012 06:59 PM (GRvW4)

16 Who's the dork wearing glasses?

Posted by: fluffeneidas at November 02, 2012 06:59 PM (4pSIn)

17 Bill Cunningham says Ohio is a lock. What are you seeing that he isn't?

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 06:59 PM (zrpqj)

18 Well, that explains his smile.

Posted by: Sheeple at November 02, 2012 06:59 PM (lIh1y)

19 Where is the pudding? I WAS TOLD HERE WOULD BE PUDDING!!!

(no, I'm not drinking...yet...)

Posted by: Conservative Crank at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (1zwZo)

20 Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 06:59 PM (zrpqj)

Reality

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (ck76k)

21 oy, what did You do to deserve her.

sorry children are yelling (in a good but loud way) , but ,hard to type.

Posted by: willow at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (hX8cq)

22
Here I thought I was the only Irishman at Ace of Spades that was down with the swirl.

Posted by: Ernie McCracken at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (ZETiK)

23 Hey, who stepped on our jokefest?

Posted by: Guy who wants to know at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (2ArJQ)

24 who is Bill Cunningham

Posted by: JDP at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (60GaT)

25 Aw! cac & mrs cac sweet couple!! Thank you both

Posted by: phoenixgirl, wearing my GIANTS jersey, team dagny at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (rwjvo)

26 Yeah, we part ways on this one CAC.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at November 02, 2012 07:01 PM (jhI6f)

27 CAC, you look just like I imagined you to be. I didn't know u were married, so...

You are giving Obama too much credit. 327-211.

Posted by: Truman North at November 02, 2012 07:01 PM (I2LwF)

28 You are giving her a four day break? You stud, you!

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 02, 2012 07:01 PM (GrtrJ)

29 Posted by: JDP at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (60GaT)

Big talkshow host in Ohio who took over Matt Drudge's show when he got canned for being Incredibly HORRIBLE

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:01 PM (ck76k)

30 CAC, I think you are very pessimistic.

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (zLp5I)

31
WI to Romney and PA to Obama....are you conceding the #NeverDoubtJackM bet CAC?

Cause I have no objections to you adding that hashtag to all your tweets in November starting now.

Posted by: Jack M. at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (ZXOR3)

32 Reality



Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:00 PM (ck76k)

The dude was on the ground in 2008 and 2004. Says today's GOP enthusiasm tops those years.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (zrpqj)

33 Until I see a pic with BOTH Mrs. CAC's hands above the table, I am going to remain creeped out by your smile.

Posted by: Levitating Mass at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (pC7pC)

34 After Tuesday no needs any nail clippers for at least three weeks.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (f6hd5)

35 Thanks for all your work. Bottom line?

You don't know.


That pretty much makes you just another moron like the rest of us.

I still think you are over analyzing this. No incumbent has every won with UE this high.


End of story.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (wR+pz)

36 More love-mounds? who's with me?

Posted by: UpWithSheeple! at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (lIh1y)

37 Boy, what a gutsy call.

Posted by: runninrebel at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (FxIhI)

38 The early vote in Ohio indicates its already won by Romney.

Posted by: Truman North at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (I2LwF)

39 CAC's loins are surging in Ohio!

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (kFnmp)

40 Seriously, I expected more from CAC on this.

Posted by: Travis at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (9WkMB)

41 Ugh forgot to change nic on iPhone

Posted by: phoenixgirl, ROMNEY/RYAN2012 at November 02, 2012 07:03 PM (rwjvo)

42 Thank you Mrs CAC.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:03 PM (P6QsQ)

43 Bill Cunningham is a talk show host from Ohio who introduced the president during the 2008 campaign as "Barack Hussein Obama," causing John McCain to grovel at Obama's feat and decry hateful speech. Good lord, what a loser of a candidate McCain was.

Posted by: Travis at November 02, 2012 07:03 PM (9WkMB)

44 Going to ride that D+3 all the way to the end, I see.

I'll wait until Monday to see the final polls before making calls.

However, I see VA, FL, NC, CO, and OH in our column. I spent a lot of time on Ohio today, and I'm convinced we win it.

PA, IA and WI are moving in our direction, and by the end of the weekend could be locked up.

Given that scenario, we hold NV and MA. We pick up PA, OH, VA, WI, MO, MT, NE, and ND. We maybe lose IN and definitely lose ME. Net +6 in the Senate.

The results aren't tight. Only the polls are. But they really aren't, they are over sampled.

Turn out will be Even nationwide and in Ohio.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 07:03 PM (dX4hn)

45
CAC...please thank the lovely Mrs. CAC for her patience, and encouragement.

I for one, appreciate it.
[And others prolly do too, if they think about how much time you've devoted to this.]


Myself...I'm hoping and praying for the dam breaking, and an R blowout.

Posted by: wheatie at November 02, 2012 07:04 PM (ICEh3)

46 PS - Mrs. CAC has some bangin' cleavage. I approve.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 02, 2012 07:04 PM (GrtrJ)

47 The balls on that guy.

Posted by: Dr Spank at November 02, 2012 07:04 PM (b+jI9)

48 Well, CAC, as a fellow Nutmegger, I can only say I hope you are wrong and Michael Barone is right. I just can't imagine America voting for the America-hater a second time, but anything is possible! After all, they keep voting for Madonna.

Posted by: Cricket at November 02, 2012 07:04 PM (2ArJQ)

49 If we need +3, and have to pick up ND, NE, and 4 others to do it, that would mean we loose three seats we currently hold. With ME, and MA being two of them, which is the other one? Nevada perhaps? (I rate it as toss-up at the moment, with a very slight tilt towards Heller.

Posted by: The Political Hat at November 02, 2012 07:04 PM (XvHmy)

50 ouch, way to harsh my mood, man. I am going to go full Eeyore.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (QxSug)

51 I am hoping Mitt has some coat-tails in Wisconsin for Tommy Thompson. I seriously never thought it would be this close. I don't think people realize just how leftist Tammy Baldwin is. I am not stretching things when I say she is to the left of Nancy Pelosi. She absolutely is.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (P6QsQ)

52 "House: Net +2 R to +1 D."

We already have the House, so that's fine.


"Senate: Net +1 to +3 R."

That's not as good.

(Even if it's 3.)

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (aSf5o)

53 Romney with a low of 315, and a top at 356.

To get to 270, Obama has to win NH, WI, OH, MI, PA, CO, NV, and get both votes out Maine. He's not going to do it.

Posted by: toby928© at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (QupBk)

54 Ace hasn't put up a new post yet?

Posted by: And the new post in 5, 4, 3, at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (zLp5I)

55 So, fake internet friends, what sort of stunt is President Petulant going to pull this weekend to save his shiftless, lazy situpon?

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (f6hd5)

56 For what it's worth (and not very much), I put together my EV map (in name). I have Romney winning 295-243.

Posted by: Brian at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (cynHT)

57 The Political Hat, do you really see NV as possible?
all those unions, i dunno.

Posted by: willow at November 02, 2012 07:06 PM (hX8cq)

58 That's a hot lady. I would definitely improve race relations with her.

Posted by: The drizzle at November 02, 2012 07:06 PM (ysCLj)

59 Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 07:02 PM (zrpqj)

I am agreeing with you !! Bill Cunningham knows Ohio & Barrone knows more about Election on his pinky finger than CAC does in his entire body

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:06 PM (ck76k)

60 I am on the phone with Clint Eastwood. I think I am going to die.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:06 PM (P6QsQ)

61 Is this the prediction thread?

If so:

1. Mrs. CAC continues winning year after year after year

2. Romney/Ryan 283 EV

3. House +3 to existing R majority

4. Senate D majority loses two...but with moderates like Lieberman still the thorn in the liberal side, Ryan is kept busy, and over the next two years, Harry Reid, (D, Pedo), becomes indistinguishable from a hemorrhoid....and just as charming, and likeable.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at November 02, 2012 07:06 PM (L7hol)

62 of course thre are a lot of Unemployed disgruntled Union construction worker also.
hmm

Posted by: willow at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (hX8cq)

63 I have reviewed CAC's projections again. They are entirely too conservative, and not in the good way.

Posted by: Travis at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (9WkMB)

64 Scott Brown is in no trouble.

Posted by: Truman North at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (I2LwF)

65 mama winger!!!!!!

Posted by: phoenixgirl, ROMNEY/RYAN2012 at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (rwjvo)

66 Dave,

I agree. I've been doing this since Goldwater. You get a sense of the race the last weekend.

They know they are losing and we know we are winning. The MSM is trying to keep the narrative that it is close. It is not.

I don't see it. We are organized and on the attack, they are playing defense.

You never win playing defense.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (wR+pz)

67 If that's really cac's wife then I apologize. I thought you were kidding. She's a fine looking lady, you lucky bastard.

Posted by: The drizzle at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (ysCLj)

68 Dave in Fla,

Can you recommend a good site/blog that is deicated to tracking these early vote numbers? I'm very interested in seeing the days results from OH, NV and IA.

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (zrpqj)

69 56

He's going to speak from his loins...


(Or perhaps read a teleprompter from his loins...)
(Attached to his loins?)

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (aSf5o)

70 Dammit I just had to open up my Election Day wine. Now I'll have to go back to the liquor store.

Posted by: Spypeach at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (pwTow)

71 Had to look up Nutmegger. Was thinking someone was stepping over a line....

Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (Ho3p+)

72 mama winger!!!!!!

Posted by: phoenixgirl, ROMNEY/RYAN2012 at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (rwjvo)

---------------

I know !!!!!!!!!

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (P6QsQ)

73 Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:05 PM (f6hd5)

I think allRED was the Oct. surprise

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (ck76k)

74 #50
I have IN as a tossup at this point, assuming it is gone that means 4 of the rest of the T/U's.
ME and MA leave us at 45 seats, IN loss would be 44.
Add ND and NE, back to 46.

Posted by: CAC at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (HoeJy)

75 btw, what exactly are you peeps tracking from CAC's election day results?

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 07:08 PM (zrpqj)

76 You are out to lunch on Ohio.

The only thing the JEF has going for him is polls skewed higher than 2008 Dem turnout.

What congressional district polling are you seeing showing the Dem winning in Ohio? Or showing a higher percentage of Dems than 2008?

That's the only way the JEF win Ohio, if there are more Dem voters on Tuesday than 2008.

Posted by: RoyalOil at November 02, 2012 07:08 PM (imtbm)

77 For no particular reason, and I could easily made it up (and I didn't), but here's the text messages I just sent to and from my Democrat GF in TN. We have argued about politics hugely, to say the least.

Anyway, I reproduce it below, just to reiterate my points that (1) I actually support the GOP, and you can think otherwise if you want [but I'd hardly slag Obama on Benghazi and the economy and F&F an on being a protege of a domestic terrorist who bombed the pentagon and so on and so forth just to pin-prick some OH-SO-IMPORTANT-TO-STYMIE Ace of Spades commenters because, really, this is the Dem master plan] (2) I really have been overly optimistic for the past 3 elections (3) you really have, as a group, been overly optimistic [so much so that Ace had to lie to you in 2008 because you kept on giving him flack because he wasn't a complete nincomcoop] and (4) variations on the previous themes.

But really for my own amusement.

Me: I'm actually arguing with a group or Republicans, saying, as I have been for days, that they're being overly optimistic and that Sandy and Rep. NJ Governor Chris Christie's love-in for Obama has switched the last-minute momentum back to Obama (which subsequent polling and YET MORE subsequent polling has confirmed) 3:43 PM
"H.": I'm done driving 3:44 PM
Me: ... and they're all calling me an "eeyore" and "concern troll" (just like they do every election). It's funny, because I've OVERestimated GOP performance in the last 3 elections straight, a fact I've pointed out to them. But I haven't overestimated it by the truly insane degrees they are. 3:44 PM
Me: So they're calling me an eeyore and a Democratic plant, as usual. 3:44 PM
Me: Now I ask you. Do you think I am a "Democratic plant"? lol 3:44 PM
"H.": Don't sweat it 3:44 PM
"H.": No I don't 3:45 PM
Me: It's amazing how much fucking imbeciles they are, and that Democratic partisans are STILL more so. 3:45 PM
Me: No offense intended. 3:45 PM
"H.": None taken. 3:45 PM
Me: Anyway, I now predict a narrow Romney win, with a possibly larger Romney win or a narrow Obama win. 3:45 PM
Me: But I've overestimated GOP performance historically, so who knows if I've finally compensated enough and got it right? 3:46 PM
Me: Anyway, the reason I brought it up is I just saw Obama do something desperate as all hell. Like I've never seen anything that desperate and selfish in politics from a national leader (it totally suits the man though). 3:46 PM
"H.": I'm about to eat dinner 3:47 PM
Me: He just urged his supporters to vote for whomever will be "bipartisan", Democratic Congressman and Senators, Republicans, whomever. 3:47 PM
Me: So he sold your party down the river. 3:47 PM
Me: He did it because his own internal polling is weak and predicts a narrow loss. Also, he's been benefitted by Sandy coverage and the fact Chris Christie has been complimenting him, so bipartisan street cred. 3:48 PM
Me: Now him and his advisors think they've found a possible path to victory on the bipartisan message. Of course, this from the leftist guy who rammed through all sorts of Dem goodies while the country's economy floundered and he ignored that. 3:49 PM
Me: Anyway, Obama sure as hell does not have "coat tails" as the electoral term goes. He just said fuck voting for Democrats down the ticket! Just vote for me. I'm all that matters. 3:49 PM
Me: It's hilarious. An epic meltdown. 3:50 PM
Me: Enjoy your dinner. 3:50 PM

What conclusions can we draw from this?

Do I bore my girlfriend with politics.

Yes. This is so.

Do I make it up to her in other ways?

Time will tell.

Do I hope Obama loses?

Oh yes. I'm more emotionally invested in that than you can imagine. To a degree that isn't healthy, frankly.

And I've even gone from "Meh" on Mitt Romney to loving the man, especially as his private acts of charity have come to the fore, and I realize there's not a hint of scandal about him. He's also a hell of an overachiever. Which is a good thing.

And ... last point ... I don't think introspection is everyone here's most plentiful quality.

But to the degree you're capable of it, do you think it might -- just possibly -- be the case that Romney's winning, but some of you are a little afflicted by "the optimism bias" (which is a totally natural, well-studied, and widespread bit of psychology affecting even yours truly)?

Maybe ... just maybe ... people who don't drink the Kool-Aid aren't necessarily your enemies, they just have a difference of opinion on the state of affairs.

By the way, I apologize for calling you a swear word above. It was a bit of sucking up to my Democrat girlfriend.

For the record, I was an f'm imbecile in 2006, when I drank so much Kool-Aid you couldn't believe it. I was ranting against Eeyores even.

lol

But I learned. Give it a try. It might suit you.

By all means get out the vote and call everyone you know, but learn to be a little bit Stoic in your estimation of things.



---


And for the record I haven't commented that much on CACs election posts, but that's mostly because I come here for Ace's ascerbic wit and inflammatory red-meat stories.

However, I've though CAC was one of the best, calmest non-big-name analysts of this election.

I'm no expert -- certainly I'm not as knowledgeable as he is on polling and prediction fundamentals -- but I think he's pretty close.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 07:08 PM (SKX2R)

78 OMG

I am giving more money to Crossroads. Maybe he'll call again.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:08 PM (P6QsQ)

79 I think allRED was the Oct. surprise

More like the upside-down cake

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:08 PM (f6hd5)

80 Nope. The socialist wins all of the battleground states outside of FL and NC and (big) maybe CO.

Romney loses. Hey party bosses, try running somebody that's not just a milder version of the guy already occupying the seat.

Posted by: flyonthewall at November 02, 2012 07:09 PM (pePug)

81
CAC, you look just like I imagined you to be.


I pictured him with a whiteguy fro.

Posted by: toby928© at November 02, 2012 07:09 PM (QupBk)

82 61 I am on the phone with Clint Eastwood. I think I am going to die.
Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:06 PM (P6QsQ)

___________

Is it real or MEMOREX!?

Posted by: tasker at November 02, 2012 07:09 PM (r2PLg)

83 aaaaah

Posted by: JDP at November 02, 2012 07:09 PM (60GaT)

84 I think CAC is hedging some, but there's more to lose by being wrong than gain by being bold. He's still done yeoman work for months. Frankly I'd be more worried if he was blowing sunshine up our asses instead, it's his cross to bear to be more skeptical as the election grows closer if he's to maintain objectivity.

Posted by: Conservative Crank at November 02, 2012 07:09 PM (1zwZo)

85 I will personally eat my own head if Obama, in a fit of desperation, begs for his reelection in a commercial that reenacts the final scene of "Boogie Nights."

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:10 PM (f6hd5)

86
Bill Cunningham is a talk show host from Ohio who introduced the president during the 2008 campaign as "Barack Hussein Obama," causing John McCain to grovel at Obama's feat and decry hateful speech. Good lord, what a loser of a candidate McCain was.Posted by: Travis at November 02, 2012 07:03 PM (9WkMB)

This is the reason I think we will win, and win big.

I had to beg family to vote in 2008.

Posted by: Almost as bad a candidate as Bob Dole at November 02, 2012 07:10 PM (zLp5I)

87 Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 07:03 PM (dX4hn)

How about give Dave the Job

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:10 PM (ck76k)

88 78

What?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:10 PM (aSf5o)

89 CAC looks like Jonah Goldberg. But more jewish.





I keed, I keeeed!

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (f6hd5)

90 I agree with Evilpens. You may as well project a loss as a win of 271-268. If you really believe it will be that close, then you may as well admit that you believe Obama wins a second term.

Posted by: BILL M at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (B5XJH)

91 Final Call? Damn, I just started drinking.

Mrs. CAC, Thanks for sharing your moron with these morons!

Posted by: USA at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (RIg+t)

92 "Can you recommend a good site/blog that is deicated to tracking these
early vote numbers? I'm very interested in seeing the days results from
OH, NV and IA."

Yeah, the Election Project at GMU is keeping up on the early votes. Easiest to just Bing it, rather than try to find a link.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (dX4hn)

93 He starts off by saying "Hi. This is Clint Eastwood. Really."



I forget everything he said after that but I'm pretty sure it had something to do with Romney.



Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (P6QsQ)

94 If Romney wins Ohio by 3+ percentage points, I think Josh Mandell can win too. If our side is in a fighting mood I see them voting strait-line ballot...

"✓R! ✓R! ✓R! ✓R! ✓R!.."

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (zrpqj)

95 81

Sure, why not...

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (aSf5o)

96 Hey, Mrs. CAC is cute.
Who'd a thunk it? Nerdy pollster guy snags hot chica. Film at 11.

Posted by: News reader at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (/sohm)

97 Today, Joe Biden said, “There's never been a day in the last four years I've been proud to be his vice president”

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:12 PM (ck76k)

98 Wow. W wife that could give even Christina Hendricks's a run for her money

That's a compliment, if you know what i izzz sezzin...

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 07:12 PM (+AV7H)

99 #75

CAC, just remember a rising tide carries all ships. If this is a blow out, which I expect, even that fool in MO wins, as does CT.

If I was you?

I'd be helping Mrs CAC with her lower back pain, he he.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at November 02, 2012 07:12 PM (wR+pz)

100 72 Had to look up Nutmegger. Was thinking someone was stepping over a line....
Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 07:07 PM (Ho3p+)

___

So I guess a Nutmegger isn't your cup of tea? HA HA. Get it? Okay, it isn't that funny.

Posted by: Cricket at November 02, 2012 07:12 PM (2ArJQ)

101 Seems odd to believe that you basically see no statistically change in the House whatsoever. I would think that with no change, that would mean we are looking more like a 2010 electorate and so we would see corresponding change in the Senate and of course in the Presidency but on a grand scale (over 300 EVs). Or if we saw little change in the Senate and no flip of the Presidency, then we are a 2008 electorate and so there would be a big change in the House. I guess to my eyes, your final predictions are contradictory. However, I have put no real thought into this other than the 2 minutes it took me to type.

Posted by: SH at November 02, 2012 07:12 PM (gmeXX)

102 DIF and CAC should make competing maps. Whoever wins gets to be next year's offical Moron projector. Although CAC get's a +3 state lead for running it for this long .

Posted by: tsrblke at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (GaqMa)

103 That's a compliment, if you know what i izzz sezzin...

Yes.

You're saying "BOOBEHS!!!"

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (WMsq+)

104 Yeah, I'm not sure where he's getting his info, but Akin is by no means assured of losing.

CAC wrote him off on Primary night, and the rest of us did after the "legitimate rape" comment, but it's hard to see how a Senator as hated as McCaskill wins on a night when the Prez race is going to be at least a 10 point spread for Romney.

Here's the most reliable poll you've seen this year, CAC.

1 month ago: chance I was going to vote for Akin... 0%

Today: Akin... 99.99999999%

That's all you need to know.

Posted by: BurtTC at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (BeSEI)

105 95 He starts off by saying "Hi. This is Clint Eastwood. Really."



I forget everything he said after that but I'm pretty sure it had something to do with Romney.



Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:11 PM (P6QsQ)

____________

Jeebus, woman!!

Was it a tape--was it real?

Can you still type?

Posted by: tasker at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (r2PLg)

106 Some of my best WIVES are black

Well, under a LDS Presidency . . .

Posted by: boulder hobo at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (QTHTd)

107 California Red:
>> Had to look up Nutmegger. Was thinking someone was stepping over a line....

Which is precisely why I didn't look it up. I've made that mistake far too many times on this God-forsaken blog, and have the brain-bleach scars to prove it. Urbandictionary is definitely not my friend.

Posted by: sandy burger at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (oHWN4)

108 Fucking Senate assholes.

Posted by: Naes at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (r4dYV)

109 This works better...

✓R!
✓R!
✓R!
✓R!
✓R!

Posted by: Serious Cat at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (zrpqj)

110
Speaking of giant melons, I caught the SOA episode where Walter Goggins, aka Boyd Crowser, played a pre-op trans-sexual, with huge boobs. They looked so real...

Posted by: Walkers! at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (Lom3Z)

111 Someone get a mop and some sawdust for mama winger.

Posted by: UpWithSheeple! at November 02, 2012 07:13 PM (lIh1y)

112 Urbandictionary is definitely not my friend.

---

Nor anyone else's.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 02, 2012 07:14 PM (WMsq+)

113 Not trying to dis you Samwise, but your GF didn't seem to be into it.

Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 07:14 PM (Ho3p+)

114 Was it a tape--was it real?


------------

Tape. But very breathlessly awesome.

----------------------------


Can you still type?

-------------------

With one hand.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:14 PM (P6QsQ)

115 somewhere north of 330 EV for the mormon. ya youngins' is about to get a history lesson.

Posted by: butternut at November 02, 2012 07:14 PM (nbYoV)

116 The Political Hat, do you really see NV as possible?
all those unions, i dunno.

Posted by: willow at November 02, 2012 07:06 PM (hX8cq)


For the Senate race, perhaps.

The Democrats have so far run at about their registration advantage, which is why I've placed emphasis on the huge 250%+ increase in the Dems advantage in the past six months.

Heller runs about 4 to 6% ahead of Romney in the polls. While I am skeptical of all polls in Nevada after 2010 Senate snaffu most pollsters had, that 4-6% has been fairly consistent, though I believe it will be greater. If trends continue from today (the last day of early voting), like it did in 2008, Obama will win by 5-6%, which leaves Heller a toss-up.

If the GOP really is saving its high propensity voters for election day, AND can win the election day turnout, AND can pull ahead big in Washoe, AND win enough Democrat voters, AND win a large percentage of the independents, they have a chance with Romney and would almost certainly keep the Senate seat. IF, that is.

My take after the second to last day of early voting: http://politicalhat.com/?p=434

Posted by: The Political Hat at November 02, 2012 07:14 PM (XvHmy)

117 99

Hey, he's smartening up!

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:15 PM (aSf5o)

118 Lovely couple. Thanks for all the work, CAC, and thanks to your lovely wife. My take? If it's as close as you're thinking it's going to be, then we'll lose. The Democrats have an army of attorneys waiting in the wings to swoop down on any swing state anywhere near the statistical MOE. Remember the Franken recount. No one can find votes like crooked Democrats digging up the dead and bringing out the felons.

But I don't think it'll be that close. I know what I'm feeling is based on hunch and anecdote, but I see a big red wave coming along the lines of the 2010 turnout. I think Romney will win comfortably.

Posted by: troyriser at November 02, 2012 07:15 PM (vtiE6)

119 I've been predicting Romney 380. All swing states and 1 or 2 surprise blue states.

Posted by: MrX at November 02, 2012 07:15 PM (PxmNZ)

120 cool. Mardi Gras.

Posted by: DRH at November 02, 2012 07:15 PM (xFoDt)

121 61 - WTF?

Posted by: the Butcher at November 02, 2012 07:15 PM (8g9qq)

122 alright gotcha Political Hat, thnks for that info.

Posted by: willow at November 02, 2012 07:16 PM (hX8cq)

123 I'm no expert -- certainly I'm not as
knowledgeable as he is on polling and prediction fundamentals -- but I
think he's pretty close.Posted by: Samwise Gamgee


Your tediousness, did you have to work at it or does it come naturally?

Posted by: weft cut-loop at November 02, 2012 07:16 PM (jo069)

124 I'm just fucking glad I scrolled down to see who left that monstrosity so I didn't actually read it.

Posted by: Adam at November 02, 2012 07:16 PM (/YJYi)

125 Can you still type?

-------------------

With one hand.
Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:14 PM (P6QsQ)____

______________

LMAO!

oh my!

Posted by: tasker at November 02, 2012 07:17 PM (r2PLg)

126 Clint Eastwood is making calls in Wisconsin. Put us in the 'R' column.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:17 PM (P6QsQ)

127 327-211.

Posted by: Truman North at November 02, 2012 07:17 PM (I2LwF)

128 I know CAC is just being cautious here, but fuck that shit. Word is Obama's been seeing Stevie Nicks' reflection in the snow covered hills. He knows what's coming.

I say Romney takes all the tossups but for NV, and one or two omfgs out of WA, OR, MN, CT, or NJ.

Posted by: mugiwara at November 02, 2012 07:18 PM (JxXAE)

129 Anyway, here's where I put my reputation on the line, and declare who I think the winner is. Since I don't have a reputation, I'm already coming out ahead.

-----

Joking aside, I realize you are trying to establish a reputation. Not sure what you predicted for 2008 (if you did). It takes guts to go out on a limb and actually make a call. Same for Barone, but he has already established his chops, so if he is wrong, he is probably ok. It is easy for me to make a prediction, becuase I truly have no reputatoin and am not trying to make one. So kudos and bravo. Your results would likely be accepted, but hopefully we take the Senate, even if we only get to 50.

Posted by: SH at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (gmeXX)

130 Odds on Chris Matthews having a Technicolor yawn on camera Tuesday?

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (f6hd5)

131
I think you are dead wrong about Oh and the early voting which is down by 15 percent in Cuyahoga County and Hamilton bare that out. You clearly do not know the State of OH...I am from there and Karl Rove has an excellent analysis of the State. You are underestimating Evangelicals and the Catholic Switch Vote. You clearly have relied on Bias polls that you slam then you make the ridiculous assumption about OH. The people in the State clearly know Obama is down in OH on early voting....you miss the fact that McCain won OH on the day of the election. The early numbers clearly miss the gun for Obama...he is down..from 2008 and the numbers bear it out. You should have listened to Michael Barone who has looked at the Early Returns in OH and see Obama is down in Cuyahoga.

CAC my entire family outside of me lives in Cuyahoga County local reports also stress that Early Voting is down in the MOST IMPORTANT COUNTY that Obama must have by big margins. You clearly are off the mark. I am sorry you missed OH bigtime. With all due respect CAC you necessarios are quite bad andI think way off.

By the Way Obama is down 6 percent early voting in Clark County in NV and 11 percent in Washoe County which is Reno...He is only up One in Reno where he won by 12 in 2008 and up 14 percent in Clark where he won by 21 in 2008. So Nevada is another one that CAC is off.

OH will be CAC's biggest miss and probably Pennsylvania. Sorry 2010 Pa went Red and Republicans are way up in Absentees in PA as well....I disagree greatly with CAC....which is sad I thought he had better insight.

Take a Class from Michael Barone CAC on how to read states.....

Posted by: bluerose75 at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (HDcKc)

132 HUGE RALLY IN OHIO WITH MITT:

http://tinyurl.com/aerxc2c

Posted by: NWConservative at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (M1gmo)

133 Shit, I meant to put that in my sig like this

Posted by: Truman North, 327-211 at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (I2LwF)

134 You see, right there we just got the anti-racist
narrative back from the libs: When Romney institutes Plural Marriage
nationwide, every man can have a glorious Benneton ad featuring Wives of
Every Color. Why limit yourself to one race under One-Wife Obama when
you can roll in the hay with every race under Romney?

Posted by: Shock Puppet at November 02, 2012 07:18 PM (+cx5n)

Can half white injuins get in on this too?

Posted by: Injuin Blackfoot Barry, The One Who Eats Dogs at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (wR+pz)

135
Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:08 PM (P6QsQ)

It's been many years since I spoke to Clint in person, but I remember him as a preternaturally calm man.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (1Y+hH)

136
128Clint Eastwood is making calls in Wisconsin. Put us in the 'R' column.

That is so fucking cool!
Thanks for that report, mama winger.

I've only gotten one Robo-call for Romney...and that was just a fundraising call...way back in April.
But then, OK is a sure thing.

Posted by: wheatie at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (ICEh3)

137 Dave in Fla: No way Obama takes IN. A lot of buffoons here voted for Obama here in 2008. There will be a lot fewer voters that stupid this time around.

Posted by: BILL M at November 02, 2012 07:20 PM (B5XJH)

138 How can I get a robocall from Clint Eastwood here in communist New York? That'd be awesome. I'm so proud of him for getting involved when our country is in such danger.

Posted by: Travis at November 02, 2012 07:20 PM (9WkMB)

139 >>>Seems odd to believe that you basically see no statistically change in the House whatsoever.

I'd like to see more pickups too, but a couple points in favor of CACs thinking just off the top of my head are that we already have a lot of seats and are doing pretty good in the House already, and also that that this is a Presidential election with a Dem in the WH, so that should uptick Dem turnout vs. 2010.

Whereas in 2010, people were Meh on McCain/Palin (I was in the tank for them, but looking back at it, I think it was a weak ticket), but the Tea Party had energized the heck out of House races. Plus it was a referendum on recently-passed unpopular Obamacare.

So for House races, things have changed.

Anyway, that's my defense of CACs House estimates.

In fact, I think we'll do a little better than he's saying in the House -- especially after Obama just sold out downticket Dems.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 07:20 PM (SKX2R)

140 I'm so proud of him for getting involved when our country is in such danger.

Posted by: Travis at November 02, 2012 07:20 PM (9WkMB)

--------------

I am too. He didn't have to do this. And he's doing it in a big way. All in. I'm officially in love with the man.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:21 PM (P6QsQ)

141 Lol mama winger

Posted by: phoenixgirl, ROMNEY/RYAN2012 at November 02, 2012 07:22 PM (rwjvo)

142 "Even in a good year for the Democrats it would be hard to flip control, with the redistricting and costly Presidential race sucking much of the "energ" and money out of the room for them. "

And because incumbents tend to be re-elected. The simple fact that Republicans have a majority helps them to keep that majority. Democrats need a wave election, or a series of elections where they pick off 4-8 House seats at a time, to get their majority back.

Posted by: Daryl Herbert at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (kP4aY)

143 OH will be CAC's biggest miss and probably Pennsylvania. Sorry 2010 Pa went Red and Republicans are way up in Absentees in PA as well....I disagree greatly with CAC....which is sad I thought he had better insight.

Take a Class from Michael Barone CAC on how to read states.....

-------

Why the fuck are you so hostile every time you disagree with someone? Can't you just say "I disagree and here is why" without all of the other bullshit and snide remarks?

Posted by: Rich at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (arczc)

144 You lucky bastard. For so many reasons.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. We're not worthy. at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (Gk3SS)

145 I'd like to see more pickups too, but a couple points in favor of CACs thinking just off the top of my head are that we already have a lot of seats and are doing pretty good in the House already, and also that that this is a Presidential election with a Dem in the WH, so that should uptick Dem turnout vs. 2010. ----

It could also simply reflect that the public wants a divided government.

Posted by: SH at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (gmeXX)

146 I won't be able to update on NM until late tomorrow, but I'm telling you all--it could be close.

Unless some 20k votes come in both today and tomorrow in Alburquerque.

Posted by: RoyalOil at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (imtbm)

147 Dave in Fla: Sorry, Dave. I read your post too quickly. Upon reading it again, I realize you were talking about the Senate seat. I think it goes our way, but I night be wrong.

Posted by: BILL M at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (B5XJH)

148 >>>Not trying to dis you Samwise, but your GF didn't seem to be into it.

Oh believe me, I know.

She's even less into it when I dis Obama as a liar and a disgrace to the office.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (SKX2R)

149 Ohio is ours, CAC.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (lOlyY)

150 Since this is a prediction thread, I'm predicting a Romney blowout, for three very cogent reasons: 1. The economy's in the crapper, the country's mired in an unpopular war, and Benghazi is a cluster--well, you know; 2. The polling is doubly skewed because of the 2008 anomaly; 3. My liver can't take the alternative.

Posted by: Cricket at November 02, 2012 07:24 PM (2ArJQ)

151 138

Oh, hey! You're back!

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:24 PM (aSf5o)

152
135 HUGE RALLY IN OHIO WITH MITT:


http://tinyurl.com/aerxc2c

------------

Truly awesome picture!
Wow.
Thanks.

Posted by: wheatie at November 02, 2012 07:24 PM (ICEh3)

153 When someone offers a prediction, I expect it to be like Rove (Romney 51-48 with 279 EC) and Barone (Romney 315 EC) who gave us hard numbers, not some range. In two hedged bets even yet.

How about I just predict Bronco Bama or Romney gets from 0 to 537 EV votes?

Pick a damned number and stick to it. Or don't try to call it a prediction.

But Mrs. CAC looks lovely. So the family photo redeems the whole thread.

Posted by: TooCon at November 02, 2012 07:24 PM (FefyM)

154 HAH! Fox Nation is reporting sources telling the Daily Caller that Obama the Magnificent got ONLY A 2.6 GPA WHILE AT COLUMBIA!!

LOLOLOL!!!

Posted by: NWConservative at November 02, 2012 07:25 PM (M1gmo)

155 You're a lucky guy. Treat her right.

Posted by: SurferDoc at November 02, 2012 07:25 PM (6H6FZ)

156 @142

I think CAC's take on the House is not real.


In NC alone we will pick up THREE R seats. So no other state is going to have a pick up of seats?


Not realistic.

Posted by: Billy Bob, the guy who drinks in SC at November 02, 2012 07:25 PM (wR+pz)

157 My liver can't take the alternative.

-----

Drink of choice for election night? I'm thinking a beer or two when I get home just to get the edge off, a nice bottleof red with dinner as I watch for the early returns to come in, and a bottle of Maker's in reserve for when they call PA for Mitt.

Posted by: SH at November 02, 2012 07:26 PM (gmeXX)

158 Another picture of the rally in Ohio. (Earlier)

http://tinyurl.com/dxhm68b

Posted by: NWConservative at November 02, 2012 07:26 PM (M1gmo)

159 Thank you Mrs. CAC for putting up with all of this. You are obviously patient, and love Mr. CAC, who is a heckuva guy by the way.

You are lovely. We can't see the blinking Morse code "help me" message in the still photo, and yet your smile makes it seem kinda like you're ok with it.

*I keed and all the best

Posted by: Dave in Texas at November 02, 2012 07:26 PM (pUqSw)

160 Fox Nation is reporting sources telling the Daily Caller that Obama the Magnificent got ONLY A 2.6 GPA WHILE AT COLUMBIA!!

Wow. He's a better student than I thought.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (f6hd5)

161 A 2.6 at Columbia is pretty good, or at least it was at the time that Barky went. You had to be a Try Hard to do better. (I understand things have changed.)

Posted by: Cricket at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (2ArJQ)

162 Wanted to get to a Mitt rally today but couldn't, too many errands.

For the record, Hilliard is essentially part of Columbus, Etna is more like 30 minutes down the highway--so winning turnout there is a big F-ing deal, as Slow Joe would say.

Posted by: Conservative Crank at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (1zwZo)

163 I'd say you are the winner, CAC. She's a stunner!

Posted by: no good deed at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (mjR67)

164 Clint Eastwood is making calls in Wisconsin. Put us in the 'R' column.

---

Holy crap, that's amazing! What a shock that must've been for you! Imagine....Clint Eastwood working the phones. Unreal!

Posted by: Lady in Black at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (lTVJy)

165 I'm an eeyore and I'm more optimistic than CAC.. Congratulations to you and your lovely wife...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (9+ccr)

166 >>>Pick a damned number and stick to it. Or don't try to call it a prediction.

Come to think of it, he's kind of doing a variation on the Nate Silver "The Model" prediction, huh?

Where Nate just gives a percentage and then, whatever happens, he can say, "Ah ha! There was a 28% chance of what 100% happened. Told you so."

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (SKX2R)

167 \

Shep Smith sstating sSyrian Assssault ssseemss severe.


the Sibilantssssss!!!

Posted by: T.Hunter at November 02, 2012 07:27 PM (EZl54)

168 @142

I think CAC's take on the House is not real.


In NC alone we will pick up THREE R seats. So no other state is going to have a pick up of seats?


Not realistic.

------

You do realize we are also going to lose seats in some states?

Posted by: Rich at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (arczc)

169 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
Cuyahoga, OH (dem hope) continues rapid fall off of 2008 in-person EV pace. Now down 20%. Yesterday was -18, Wed -15, Tue -10, Mon -3%

Yep gonna lose Ohio !

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (ck76k)

170 phoenixgirl, did you keep the snake for a hat band?

Posted by: Ronster at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (BvzwK)

171 I figured I'd drop this here for future reference: http://tinyurl.com/b8vn2oa

Posted by: cthulhu at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (kaalw)

172
I was fully expecting that the announced winner would be "plaid", only to have my hopes dashed on the shoals of despair.

On the bright side, anything that makes CACbride happy can't be all bad.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (TIIx5)

173
was mama winger at starbucks when clint called?
http://tinyurl.com/cdzazsa

Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (Ho3p+)

174 Well, it's clear CAC has read dad's column.

Posted by: Greg, Nate Silver's love child at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (wR+pz)

175 The JEF is off of his 2008 pace in Abq. by 26% right now.

Also, having IN as a toss up is loony toons. Go back and look at how close 2008 was.

Just a drop in black voting participation to the historic 55% from 2008 of 60% will put IN firmly in the Romney camp.

Posted by: RoyalOil at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (imtbm)

176 53-47 PV

300+ EV

Colorado, Ohio and a handful of swing states.

If I'm right I want a dinner date with Mrs CAC. I won't be a boob about it, I promise.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (+AV7H)

177 166

Your post is too short.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:29 PM (aSf5o)

178 BTW, if tney callPA early for Mitt, break out the good stuff right then, he'll leave 300 EVs in the dust if he wins the Keystone State.

Posted by: Conservative Crank at November 02, 2012 07:29 PM (1zwZo)

179 Never posting a picture of Mrs. North.

Posted by: Truman North, 327-211 at November 02, 2012 07:29 PM (I2LwF)

180 Gorgeous breathtaking halter neckline on wedding dress.

Wow, I read this blog for the bitter meat pie slices, fermented vegetable bergoo, maybe stale grain-based or dairy-food-parody food products.

Today, we got dessert.

Posted by: Mongerel at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (YqWfw)

181 Let me expand on my opinion. Like CAC, I see three scenarios for the election, but in only one of them does Obama have a chance.

1) D+3 turnout. The more I look into early votes, GOTV, and enthusiasm, I see this as very unlikely. I don't think the Dems have the registration advantage and sufficient enthusiasm to out perform the GOP by 3 points. If they did, they would have had to crush in early voting, but they are barely holding on and are way under their targets. This could come into play with massive fraud, but would require a very large percentage of early voters to vote twice. In this scenario, Romney wins by about 1% to 1.5% and would squeak out an EV win. If Obama does win in this scenario, it was stolen.

2) Even turnout. This is the most likely scenario I think. Romney's GOTV wipes out any early vote advantage Obama has. The Independents provide 6 million more votes to Romney, and we get a small cross over advantage. Romney wins by 4.5% and takes FL, VA, OH, IA, CO, WI, NH and maybe PA (50/50).

3) R+2 turnout. Rasmussen's monthly poll and the Gallup poll are correct. Romney wins by 6% and takes FL, VA, OH, IA, CO, WI, NH, PA, NV, and OR.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (dX4hn)

182
A range? He predicts a range?

Ok, then I say Romney and Obama each get 270 EV +/- 20.




Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (kdS6q)

183

It's been many years since I spoke to Clint in person, but I remember him as a preternaturally calm man.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 02, 2012 07:19 PM (1Y+hH)

----------

Yeah, that's what my husband said about him.
He met him one time at a classic truck show, and talked to him for a while...mostly about trucks, but about politics too.

Posted by: wheatie at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (ICEh3)

184 I predict complete meltdowns at ABC, CBS, NBC, CNN, and MSNBC. Meltdowns at FOX depend on whether they let Shep, Juan, or Giraldo in the room.

We need a page accumulating all of the video feeds for reference.

Posted by: Al at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (MzQOZ)

185 Fox Nation is reporting sources telling the Daily Caller that Obama the Magnificent got ONLY A 2.6 GPA WHILE AT COLUMBIA!!

That's an average. His brain got a 1.3 but his loins earned 3.9.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows 47% got a fever and Uncle Sugar is the only cure at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (f6hd5)

186 Posted by: Rich at November 02, 2012 07:23 PM (arczc)

Relax Francis !! & take a few Midols !! Freedom of Speech ..... Catch it

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:31 PM (ck76k)

187 was mama winger at starbucks when clint called?
http://tinyurl.com/cdzazsa


Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (Ho3p+)

-----------
Oh my! Hahahaha!

No, 'twernt me. I can honestly say that I am probably one of the last three people on earth that has never ever been to a Starbucks, not once.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:31 PM (P6QsQ)

188 "A 2.6 at Columbia is pretty good, or at least it was at the time that Barky went. You had to be a Try Hard to do better. (I understand things have changed.)"

uh, from someone with first-hand knowledge, no, columbia doesn't give out free degrees with high gpa's.

i've read all the same articles you guys have about the free degrees at ivy universities. i dunno if those are all going to legacy kids whose folks are big donors, but i can guarantee that, at least in masters' programmes, you have to work pretty hard to keep your gpa up at columbia.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (79EF9)

189 You do realize we are also going to lose seats in some states?

Posted by: Rich at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (arczc)

Name one.

Posted by: Greg, Nate Silver's love child at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (wR+pz)

190 CAAAAAACCCCCCC ATTTTAAACKKKKKKKKKK!!!!!

Posted by: The Guy Who Just Started Saying CAAAACCCCCCC ATTTTAAAACKKKKKKKKKK!!!!! at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (6JMZR)

191
Romney 320-218 EV
Romney 54 -46 popular vote.

Posted by: retired military at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (UbevC)

192 Republicans on Election Day. President Obama holding on is a very real possibility and will be stopped only by the drive of Republicans to see him gone. In two days, we will know if that drive was strong enough.

Then, we'll examine why, in a horrible economy, it took a last minute drive to eek out a slim win, or a loss.

I'm not going to wish for a recession to elect all of my Republican presidents. We better get talkin'.

Posted by: CJ at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (9G+G5)

193 Fox Nation is reporting sources telling the Daily Caller that Obama the Magnificent got ONLY A 2.6 GPA WHILE AT COLUMBIA!!
If stuff like this comes out in the MSM after Bronco Bama loses on Tuesday, Meanchelle will probably divorce him, like she threatened to do if he lost that race in his early days in Chicago

Posted by: the Butcher at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (8g9qq)

194 Hey Royal, Does Johnson impact the NM picture at all? I figure maybe since he was gov of that state he pulls a statistically significnt number of votes away from....baracks choom gang? ron paul republicans?

Posted by: California Red at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (Ho3p+)

195 Relax Francis !! & take a few Midols !! Freedom of Speech ..... Catch it

---------

I've got it. Watch. Stop being a dick to everyone who you happen to disagree with.

Posted by: Rich at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (arczc)

196 off damn sock

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at November 02, 2012 07:33 PM (wR+pz)

197 185

I think you might be on to something.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:33 PM (aSf5o)

198 Yeah, that's what my husband said about him.
He met him one time at a classic truck show, and talked to him for a while...mostly about trucks, but about politics too.
Posted by: wheatie at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (ICEh3)__ ___ ____ ___ ___ ____ ___ ___ ___ __ _ _ __ ___ ___ _Wheatie, he's a Hollywooder who is also a great man, and a REAL man,a somewhat rare combination in that town.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 02, 2012 07:33 PM (1Y+hH)

199 I'll probably finalize my own predictions this weekend, but...

At this point, I'd say that Romney gets all the McCain states and picks up: IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, ME-2, WI, and CO, which would give Romney 272.

The one thing that worries me is if Ron Paul cultists who was selected as elector in one of these states Romney wins, will end up voting for Ron Paul anyway. Not sure what states they got that elector spot for, but it is something that ought to be double checked.

As for Senate, I think we pick up MT, ND, NE, WI, and VA. I think we keep IN narrowly, but loose MO narrowly. ME is gone, and MA and NV are toss-ups. If we loose both of those, we are only net +2 and at 49 senators

For the house, I don't see much of a swing. It looks like the GOP will keep NV03, but the Dems will barely grab the new NV04 (a seat that shouldn't have even be competitive). I am also predicting that the GOP in the Nevada state senate fails to pick-up the net +1 seat they need to take over.

I will also predict that one of the marriage initiatives/referenda will result in a pro-SSM vote.

Posted by: The Political Hat at November 02, 2012 07:33 PM (XvHmy)

200 178
BTW, if tney callPA early for Mitt, break out the good stuff right then,
he'll leave 300 EVs in the dust if he wins the Keystone State.

Posted by: Conservative Crank at November 02, 2012 07:29 PM (1zwZo)

cant make any early calls, might depress midwest dems.

Posted by: MFM at November 02, 2012 07:33 PM (FIDMq)

201 Posted by: Rich at November 02, 2012 07:32 PM (arczc)

I pretty much do what I want Thank you & fuck you

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:34 PM (ck76k)

202 When the American people get knocked up by a big eared buffoon, the electorate has a way of shutting that shit down.

Posted by: Todd Akin at November 02, 2012 07:34 PM (TwMoC)

203 >>>Fox Nation is reporting sources telling the Daily Caller that Obama the Magnificent got ONLY A 2.6 GPA WHILE AT COLUMBIA!!

Oh IF ONLY Romney had said in the debate when Obama demanded he release his tax records, "I will absolutely be happy to release all of what you ask for within an hour of your releasing your full college transcripts and marks -- how about it, Mr. President?"

Of course, I didn't personally think of that response at the time, but it would have been epic.

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 07:34 PM (SKX2R)

204 My prediction? Pain.

Posted by: Clubber Mitt at November 02, 2012 07:35 PM (QupBk)

205 new one

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:35 PM (P6QsQ)

206
199
I'll probably finalize my own predictions this weekend, but...



At this point, I'd say that Romney gets all the McCain states and
picks up: IN, NC, FL, VA, NH, ME-2, WI, and CO, which would give Romney
272.



The one thing that worries me is if Ron Paul cultists who was
selected as elector in one of these states Romney wins, will end up
voting for Ron Paul anyway. Not sure what states they got that elector
spot for, but it is something that ought to be double checked.



As for Senate, I think we pick up MT, ND, NE, WI, and VA. I think
we keep IN narrowly, but loose MO narrowly. ME is gone, and MA and NV
are toss-ups. If we loose both of those, we are only net +2 and at 49
senators



For the house, I don't see much of a swing. It looks like the GOP
will keep NV03, but the Dems will barely grab the new NV04 (a seat that
shouldn't have even be competitive). I am also predicting that the GOP
in the Nevada state senate fails to pick-up the net +1 seat they need to
take over.



I will also predict that one of the marriage initiatives/referenda will result in a pro-SSM vote.

Posted by: The Political Hat at November 02, 2012 07:33 PM (XvHmy)

That will probably be either Maryland or Washington. I am betting on Washington State. We passed with a majority vote everything but marriage last year. They are moving in for the kill now.
The Ron Paul cultist was removed. I believe it was an Iowa elector.

Posted by: NWConservative at November 02, 2012 07:35 PM (M1gmo)

207 So anyone seen Greg? Has ace banned him?

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at November 02, 2012 07:35 PM (wR+pz)

208 Neu zuruck!

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 02, 2012 07:35 PM (94rak)

209 Romney 271-277 sounds about right. But OH will not go to Obama. If you conducted 100 electionsRepublicans who win the Independent vote in OH (as Romney unquestionably will) would prevail in OH nearly 100% of the time. Not that it won't be close; obviously it will. But there are not enough useful idiots to put OH in the Obama column. Not this year. I give Romney all the McCain '08 states (obviously) + IN and NC (obviously) + Fla., OH, VA and CO. I agree that IA will be razor thin, either way. In WI old political habits die hard. I think Romney very narrowly takes NV. What the polls completely are missing there is the Mormon vote. NV has the largest Mormon population outside of Utah and they're not the sorts of people who get polled by pollsters. NH will be very close. I can see Romney winning it by a similar margin to that by which W. Bush won it back in '00.Lastly, regarding Congress, Iagree withno material change in the House, but it appears the GOP notonly has shot itself in the foot regarding the Senate they've shot the other foot too. King will caucus with the Dems. The Akin fiasco speaks for itself. Mourdock appears to be circling the drain. GOP net +1 or +2, ending up at 48 or 49seats. Sadly Mike Castle, Sue Lowden and Jane Nortonall will be unavailable forcomment.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (pmsMR)

210 "I'm not going to wish for a recession to elect all of my Republican presidents. We better get talkin'."

no kidding.

with all of the abject failures of obama's campaign...and the one shining success (obamacare) being decidedly unpopular with a majority of the citizenry, besides!...you would think this thing would have been in the bag even before the primary was over and the candidate selected.

i guess folks will talk about mitt being a poor candidate...but honestly, is he really any worse than anyone the republicans have put up since reagan?

Posted by: jimi ray at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (79EF9)

211 201

Settle down.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (aSf5o)

212 vote, GOTV, pray

Posted by: Thunderb at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (Dnbau)

213 Name one.

-----

There's a list from the HotAir guy. You can see the ones he believes will be losing. I tend to agree, especially in states like Illinois that got caught in the Red Wave and will do "self-correcting."

http://tinyurl.com/advdkuo

Posted by: Rich at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (arczc)

214 You don't lead with independents by ridiculous margins and only narrowly pull off a win.

This ain't Bush 2000/2004. In both elections he basically tied with independents and still won the election. He lead Gore by 1 percent and was actually behind Kerry by 20 percent with independents.

Now imagine how the margin of victory would be when independents are breaking your way by double digits. You'd have to bus over democrats from France to make up that kind of lost ground.

LANDSLIDE

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (+AV7H)

215 "Dave in Fla: Sorry, Dave. I read your post too quickly. Upon reading it
again, I realize you were talking about the Senate seat. I think it goes
our way, but I night be wrong."

I'm hedging on that IN Senate seat because of that new poll. But I don't trust that poll either. If you like, pretend we lose MA (Truman says no way) and hold IN. Still +6.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (dX4hn)

216 Shit, not 20 percent, 2 percent. He was behind Kerry by 2 percent with independents if you can believe it.

Posted by: Christina Hendricks's Mighty Jugs Teams Up With Mitt Romney's Hair to Defeat SCOAMF at November 02, 2012 07:37 PM (+AV7H)

217 Bronco Bama rides again! Yeeeehaw!

Posted by: Reggie Love at November 02, 2012 07:37 PM (mjR67)

218 i guess folks will talk about mitt being a poor
candidate...but honestly, is he really any worse than anyone the
republicans have put up since reagan?

Posted by: jimi ray at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (79EF9)

--------------
What on earth are you talking about??

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:38 PM (P6QsQ)

219 >>>My prediction? Pain.
Posted by: Clubber Mitt

Are you Clubber Lang?

I hope not, because you're one of the smartest people here. And that sounds more pessimistic than I am.

Unless you're saying Mitt's going to bring the pain on Obama?

Posted by: Samwise Gamgee the 3rd at November 02, 2012 07:38 PM (SKX2R)

220
171I figured I'd drop this here for future reference: http://tinyurl.com/b8vn2oa

Posted by: cthulhu at November 02, 2012 07:28 PM (kaalw)

------------

That was a nice read. Thanks.
Even Oregon, huh?

Posted by: wheatie at November 02, 2012 07:39 PM (ICEh3)

221 Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at November 02, 2012 07:36 PM (aSf5o)

UMMM NO!

Posted by: Evilpens at November 02, 2012 07:41 PM (ck76k)

222 At the Pebble Beach Lodge looking down on the 18th hole, the restaurant called The Bench, named after the commemorative bench outsidewhere the ownership group that includes Clint Eastwood, Arnold Palmer, and Peter Ueberroth agreed in 1999 to buy Pebble Beach back from its Japanese owners...


It's never empty.

Posted by: wth at November 02, 2012 07:41 PM (wAQA5)

223 My Gutsy Call is Romney: 338; Bronco Bamma: 200. Which means, yes, I'm predicting Romney taking PA, OH, WI and MI. Of those, the one I feel the least secure on in PA, because PA is ever the teasing Bitch Goddess for the GOP.

Posted by: holygoat at November 02, 2012 07:41 PM (XnwWl)

224 Mrs. CAC is just lovely.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 02, 2012 07:41 PM (piMMO)

225 Romney 320-218 EV
Romney 53.5 -44.5 popular vote.

Winning PA.

Posted by: Al at November 02, 2012 07:42 PM (MzQOZ)

226 On Akin...

Yes, he's an idiot but an idiot that will repeal Obamacare and Claire is disdained (and corrupt).

Recent poll showed Claire up but only by 2 points (and stuck at 45).

It is my understanding that Akin has a strong St Louis presence. Counties outside of St Louis and KC are going to go for Akin...overwhelmingly so.

I live in Platte county (KC suburbs) and homes and areas are inundated with Akin signs, Claire signs are a rare anomaly. Claire will be carried by Jackson county but that was always going to be the case.

Seems 50/50 at minimum, shocked with the conventional wisdom that MO senate seat not listed as a toss up by conventional wisdom.

Posted by: JT in KC at November 02, 2012 07:42 PM (7cxOe)

227 140 I think he means Lugar's seat may possibly go D because RM is down like 11 points.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 02, 2012 07:43 PM (XoWvb)

228 "at least in masters' programmes, you have to work pretty hard to keep your gpa up at columbia."

Masters' programs are a world apart from undergraduate programs. Up until like 2000, more than half of Harvard undergrads graduated "with top honors." Grade inflation was rampant, and is still prevalent. The idea is something like, "you got here, so you're obviously brilliant; no need for more rigorous metrics."

In my experience, Ivy grads are the most overrated intellects, ever. If you don't believe me, look around at the number they've done to the country.

Posted by: dawnfire at November 02, 2012 07:43 PM (eEeH7)

229 Sorry for the Goodfellas Tommy Two Time above.

Posted by: JT in KC at November 02, 2012 07:44 PM (7cxOe)

230 "What on earth are you talking about??"

bush 1? dole? john MCCAIN?

bush 2 had his populist charm, but he was also a doormat who destroyed his own base's morale by selling out to the opposition.

what candidate, in particular, are you thinking was clearly stronger than romney? i'm dying to know.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 02, 2012 07:44 PM (79EF9)

231 I have come to respect CAC's work. Not happy about the Senate projection but if there were an Ace of Spades HQ Intrade Exchange(there should be), my money goes on CAC's numbers. Reality, disappointingly, rains on hopes parade. We need the Senate as bad as the presidency--may be worse.

Posted by: redgrains at November 02, 2012 07:44 PM (ePnYH)

232 Thank you, Mrs. CAC!!!!!
(Thanks for all of your hard work as well, CAC - much appreciated)

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at November 02, 2012 07:45 PM (P6H+d)

233 What I'm talking about is you referring to Mitt Romney as a poor candidate.

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 07:49 PM (P6QsQ)

234 I give Mitt 295 (every swing except for Nevada) but it could go to 315 if PA unf*cks itself--not holding my breath though...

Posted by: Conservative Crank at November 02, 2012 07:52 PM (1zwZo)

235 In this photo, we see the lovely Mrs. CAC using a secret technique to get her husband to smile for the camera.

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 02, 2012 07:54 PM (9GaPd)

236 CAC i want you to know i was looking at the post and my guy walks over "Who's the lucky dude with Mrs. big boobs there?" He asked.



"The guy who turned me on to that Cupcake place we love to go to." I explained.



"TELL THEM THANK YOU!" He said. Politics he would never remember. The one post you did on My Delight Cupcakery and the bacon cupcakes that are now his favourite thing to go get on weekends? Never forget. He will always be grateful. And now he knows your taste in women is great.


For myself, I am in your debt. Your Maps and analysis helped to make the numbers i hate translate into shapes and colours i could understand at a glance.

Posted by: gushka's got a Kitty what plays fetch! ! at November 02, 2012 07:54 PM (r7Ddb)

237
2 Evs to the Mrs. assets. Absolutely phenomenal. ***

***Sorry, had to be done

Posted by: Mr. Happy at November 02, 2012 07:54 PM (ACO7P)

238 Screw it- I'm all in on the Preference Cascade- that first debate blew it all up.
52-47 but a blowout in the EC.
All we'll need to know is the Senate margins early on...if they're good , it's all over

Posted by: jjshaka at November 02, 2012 07:55 PM (LuBkF)

239 "In my experience, Ivy grads are the most overrated intellects, ever. If you don't believe me, look around at the number they've done to the country."

i don't know about the undergraduate programmes there. i know that, despite all the haranguing conservatives like to do about how awful the ivy-league education really is, the most intelligent and well-educated folks i know are ivy grads, either undergrad or post...or folks from similarly-prestigious schools like rice and stanford and MIT. with one notable exception from the air force academy, i've never really met folks from less-prestigious universities whose intellects and bodies of knowledge compare to the "average" ivy grad...at least in my own extremely limitted experience.

sure, there are legacy kids there who don't deserve the admission, much less the graduation. but money talks at less-prestigious universities, too.

i just think the backlash against ivy grads -- and the blanket denigration of their intelligence -- is totally unwarranted...especially since other universities' graduates are implied to be just as educated, or even better educated, than the ivy graduates...and that's simply not the case. maybe it *is* all the pre-college education. maybe the ivy degree is worthless. but if that's the case, then there is an argument to be made that getting in really *is* what matters, since ivy grads still seem to be more educated and successful in general than those from other universities.

sure, ivy-pedigreed political types have done a number on the country...but a lot of the most successful business people in the country have ivy pedigrees, too. so i'm not sure you can blame the ivy education so much as the type of personality that predisposes one to a career in politics.

Posted by: jimi ray at November 02, 2012 07:56 PM (79EF9)

240 Thanks, CAC...and hi, Mrs. CAC.


...yum...but don't tell the hubby I said that. I'll just deny it anyway

Posted by: Albie Damned at November 02, 2012 07:57 PM (Yhu4q)

241 It's actually an interesting dynamic at work here:

As the election gets closer, the likelihood of the polls in OH being correct actually decreases, this is because other sources of information we'd use to corroborate the polls' predictive ability for the electorate isn't being borne out. Thus, the probability the polls are correct drops as there is increasing deviation between the 2008 electorate model they predict and the daily drop in early voting vis-a-vis 2008 pace.

Yet, we get more nervous of the outcome because Nate Silver, who must know what he's talking about because he wears ridiculous black rimmed glasses, and his model at 538 says it becomes increasiningly unlikely Romney can win. Thus, the media says so. Thus, we get nervous, irate, start beating prostitutes when they look at us for more than 4 seconds.


Ohh, BTW, Nate Silver's model predicts it's over 5 times more likely for Obama to sweep NC, FL, OH, VA, CO, IA, NH than any single outcome in which Romney wins. Riddle me that shit.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at November 02, 2012 07:58 PM (jhI6f)

242
R 50.8, O 47.5,Splinters 1.7. EV 285-253.

Posted by: Meremortal at November 02, 2012 08:00 PM (1Y+hH)

243 oh for the love of pete

Posted by: mama winger voted double for Paul Ryan at November 02, 2012 08:00 PM (P6QsQ)

244 >> know that, despite all the haranguing conservatives like to do about
how awful the ivy-league education really is, the most intelligent and
well-educated folks i know are ivy grads, either undergrad or post...or
folks from similarly-prestigious schools like rice and stanford and MIT

OK..got it. Those are the only good schools, right? The rest are just idiots?

I think you might need to expand your circle a bit

Posted by: Albie Damned at November 02, 2012 08:01 PM (Yhu4q)

245 jimmah, save the Concern 'til after the election plz

Posted by: JDP at November 02, 2012 08:08 PM (60GaT)

246 I agree, the GOP doesn't gain the Senate, but probably does enough damage to have a chance at forcing Reid out of leadership - maybe not, though. Pelosi is still minority leader after losing the house in the worst clobbering in history. The GOP gains seats in both houses though, and Romney wins by 53-46 or so.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 02, 2012 08:10 PM (r4wIV)

247 I keep running about 271-300 for Romney. I don't see the enthusiasm for Obama, and I detect panic. He's SPENDING MONEY in MINNESOTA, for crying out loud.
She seems like a lovely lady, CAC. If she is as sweet as she is beautiful, you sir, are a lucky man.

Quite frankly, I can't wait for Wednesday Morning. I'm sick of Axeldouche.

Posted by: Occam's Tool at November 02, 2012 08:10 PM (OcQfO)

248 181 - Dave in FL

"3) R+2 turnout. Rasmussen's monthly poll and the Gallup poll are
correct. Romney wins by 6% and takes FL, VA, OH, IA, CO, WI, NH, PA, NV,
and OR."

Living here in Oregon, I'd be shocked if Romney took it even with an R+2 turnout. While, like elsewhere, Obamamania has died down (if not been quashed), there's still so many libs in the most populated cities (Portland and Eugene especially) that it'd be hard for Romney to break through, though it would be close.

Posted by: Brian at November 02, 2012 08:11 PM (cynHT)

249 315 seems high for electoral votes, but you know if Barone says it, I can't argue. The man knows more about voters and politics than I do about my fantasy RPG world.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 02, 2012 08:13 PM (r4wIV)

250 If Oregon goes for Romney this election, I'll give everyone here an e-copy of my book. It just won't happen.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 02, 2012 08:15 PM (r4wIV)

251 R+2 turnout. Rasmussen's monthly poll and the
Gallup poll are correct. Romney wins by 6% and takes FL, VA, OH, IA, CO,
WI, NH, PA, NV, and OR.


Posted by: Dave in Fla at November 02, 2012 07:30 PM (dX4hn)
Or R+a lot. Take the reality of the R+2 of two weeks ago and add in more for Benghazi and momentum.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 02, 2012 08:17 PM (z1N6a)

252 I agree, the GOP doesn't gain the Senate, but
probably does enough damage to have a chance at forcing Reid out of
leadership - maybe not, though. Pelosi is still minority leader after
losing the house in the worst clobbering in history. The GOP gains
seats in both houses though, and Romney wins by 53-46 or so.



Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 02, 2012 08:10 PM (r4wIV)

When Carter lost to Reagan round 1, the safe Dems were dropping like flies. My college roomate had been a Senate page and knew a lot of those assholes personally. He was loving it.Ride the wave.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 02, 2012 08:19 PM (z1N6a)

253 There was a reporter on the ground in Wisconsin talking on the radio in Chicago today, and he reported that Obama has people in all of the precincts, going door to door, working them like Chicago wards, combing for votes, encouraging them to vote early. Do you know if there is truth to this, and further if it is effective?

Posted by: Auntie Doodles at November 02, 2012 08:20 PM (JcN7j)

254
My gutsy call is Romney 321 - 217 Obama, which is Barone plus Nevada for Mitt, which is not so gutsy.

Posted by: Grumpy the Younger at November 02, 2012 08:21 PM (jts1f)

255 I think you're the winner, CAC. Your wife is lovely, and a good sport.

Posted by: not the mama at November 02, 2012 08:21 PM (kzCIn)

256 It's truly amazing the lengths wingnuts will go to disguise their racism.

Posted by: Erza Klyne at November 02, 2012 08:26 PM (Nfpnr)

257 Yeah I would not at all be surprised to see Nevada go for Romney, but not Oregon.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 02, 2012 08:32 PM (r4wIV)

258 "253 There was a reporter on the ground in Wisconsin talking on the radio in Chicago today, and he reported that Obama has people in all of the precincts, going door to door, working them like Chicago wards, combing for votes, encouraging them to vote early."

I read somewhere that in Chicago they're only giving out invites to the election night party to those who volunteer to work on the Wisconsin effort.

Yes, they are worried in Chicago. The Walker machine has beaten them four times.

Posted by: TooCon at November 02, 2012 08:35 PM (FefyM)

259 They were saying they have union workers working the precincts

Posted by: Auntie Doodles at November 02, 2012 08:47 PM (JcN7j)

260 Do you think they will be effective or do you think Wisconsin has had enough?

Posted by: Auntie Doodles at November 02, 2012 08:48 PM (JcN7j)

261 I predict--------EV---337 R------201--bho

I am OCONUS. Old guy here asked me today why we elected such a fool 4 years ago. I tried to explain the Press--he did not understand until I started telling him things that had NOT been reported here. He asked why they were not reported. I explained NYT and Mainstream idiots were where his news actually came from--just translated--He said we're way too soft on liars.

Posted by: rld77 at November 02, 2012 08:50 PM (Yyg+B)

262 273 Romney..

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bfjn

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at November 02, 2012 09:00 PM (UTq/I)

263 Never in my four years as his VP did I think we'd win re-election. No, wait, I mean.... ah, fuck it, never mind.

Posted by: The New Improved Bidenator Gaffomatic at November 02, 2012 09:01 PM (Q2wni)

264 Hey CAC - Nice pic of you and your lovely bride. Congratulations and much happiness.

My link to 270towin is incomplete.. but I don't care.. 273 is enuff.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at November 02, 2012 09:02 PM (UTq/I)

265 I'm with Dave in Fla. Mitt wins FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, OH, WI, NV and CO. I'll throw in MI and ME2 and toss out OR.

Mitt is going to crush him, by at least 10% in the PV and at least 30 in the EV.

Posted by: Tex Lovera at November 02, 2012 09:31 PM (j+44v)

266 Clint! I'm in Wisconsin too!! Call me!! Call me!!

Posted by: Donna V. at November 02, 2012 09:40 PM (7OHl8)

267 Thanks CAC, but oy vey. This is a close one.

Posted by: 4 days at November 02, 2012 09:41 PM (LpQbZ)

268
Imw2bo, the bellweather is Virginia, which comes before Ohio on account of longitude and stuff..
Whoever wins Ye Olde Dominion will prolly win Ohio as the therefore the whole ball o' wax.

Posted by: MikeD at November 02, 2012 09:51 PM (p8QOg)

269 Trumka is crowing about deploying 2000 union election monitors, Romney's Project ORCA is deploying 34000 in 14 states. That is in addition to the usual local party support.

We are going to own election day, call it R+2 in the swing states, R+3 nationwide.

Posted by: Jean at November 02, 2012 09:55 PM (a9Izx)

270 I can't read all these posts, I don't have time. I still see a tsunami for Romney and the tea party coming.

And, I don't believe that lady in the picture is Mrs. CAC. How would he have time to blog if he really had someone looking like that saying," Are you coming to bed, or playing with that computer?"

Posted by: name at November 02, 2012 10:02 PM (KqnY1)

271 "2) Even turnout. This is the most likely scenario I think. Romney's GOTV wipes out any early vote advantage Obama has. The Independents provide 6 million more votes to Romney, and we get a small cross over advantage. Romney wins by 4.5% and takes FL, VA, OH, IA, CO, WI, NH and maybe PA (50/50)."

IAWDINFL up to PA, which I think Obama will carry along with NV, but I give Romney ME2.


Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at November 02, 2012 10:22 PM (1fW9H)

272 And, I don't believe that lady in the picture is
Mrs. CAC. How would he have time to blog if he really had someone
looking like that saying," Are you coming to bed, or playing with that
computer?"

Posted by: name at November 02, 2012 10:02 PM (KqnY1
I'd be more skeptical of the idea that the guy in that photo is Mr. CAC.


Posted by: TH at November 02, 2012 10:42 PM (JsSFV)

273 Another fail of the commenting software to correctly represent how the final post will actually display. Really. This is not rocket surgery, people. Why can't you fix it?

Posted by: TH at November 02, 2012 10:46 PM (JsSFV)

274 Somebody on Scott brown's re-election - someone or a set of someones - should be flogged if Scott Brown actually loses. There is no way anyone could have lost to Elizabeth Warren except through raging inept incompetence. The idea of her actually becoming a senator...

Posted by: Sgt. York at November 03, 2012 12:43 AM (kLOjD)

275 Somebody on Scott brown's re-election - someone or a set of someones - should be flogged if Scott Brown actually loses.

Forget it Sgt York. Its Massachusetts.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 03, 2012 01:03 AM (r4wIV)

276 _________________________________

Hey CAC,

Congratulations on the truly gorgeous woman to your left. I confess envy and profound admiration in the same sentence. I have to take issue with the indicated winner in that photo, however. The fella is the obvious winner for winning over such a winsome woman. Good work!

Less generously on to your polling analytics:

If you are unlikely correct that Ohio goes for Obama: well then I will begrudgingly acknowledge you as a true Guru regarding controversial and difficult to read polls in the tightest of tight battleground States.

If on the other hand you are wrong (quite likely in my estimation) and instead Ohio lands in the Romney column: I will stop taking you seriously as someone to listen to regarding the truly tough races.
Are you not aware that Romney turned out at least 20,fuckin'000 supporters and as many as 30,000 supporters at a pro-Romney rally in Ohio this very night?
If you get this wrong by anything but the slimmest of margins, it will be a loooooooooo (take a breath) oooooooooong time before I consider taking your majorly-error-prone analysis seriously again.

That doesn't mean I don't like you. (Especially since I don't know you, though you obviously have superlative taste in women.)
Rather, it means that you have made a bold an HUGE prediction. Your accuracy will (incidentally) disappoint all of us. But our disappointment will not be your fault. - It will simply be reality. And you as the sober realist will have given us the heads up. Yours will be coolest of cool-headed judgments to be relied upon.
But if your wrong. Well. I can still appreciate your superlative judgment in women. But if your wrong and Romney handily wins Ohio as I expect he will: In the future I WILL SYSTEMATICALLY SKIP YOUR POLLING POSTS.

It's not that I won't trust your integrity - which is obviously fine.

Rather, I won't trust your judgment regarding polls.
(But if your superfine lady has a sister, please contact me via the e-mail I have consistently used to post comments to this site.

Thanks,
_Dave_









Posted by: _Dave_ at November 03, 2012 01:58 AM (J+Q+d)

277 _______________________________

Oh, let me drive that last point home a bit more.

If you're right about Ohio, will make a point to sing your praises any time you offer a decisive analytical assessment regarding hard to interpret polling numbers.

But if you're significantly off on Ohio, I will make a point to post and remind everyone how you missed an OBVIOUS and CRITICAL call for the 2012 Presidential Election.

I'd wish you luck, CAC, except that I think the predominant indicators point to a decisive Romney win.

- So it is you who should wish me, Carl Rove, and Michael Barone luck.

Thanks!




Posted by: _Dave_ at November 03, 2012 02:19 AM (J+Q+d)

278 ________________________________


Slight correction. In the above post, I meant to type: "....point to a decisive Romney win in OHIO."




Posted by: _Dave_ at November 03, 2012 02:24 AM (J+Q+d)

279 CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:17 AM (tsC/8)

280 I'm not half as dorky looking as CAC. HOPE!

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:19 AM (tsC/8)

281
Seriously, who here doesn't know a guy who looks exactly like CAC?
Do you live in Minnesota? Do I know you? Because I think I've known you as like, 4 different people over the course of my life.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:22 AM (tsC/8)

282 Maybe I met you at a Farscape convention.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:22 AM (tsC/8)

283 Now, I have 8 people in my DD group. You'd think I'd know them all. But I'm almost certain CAC is in my DD group.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:23 AM (tsC/8)

284
DD
there's no ampersand? It get's cut out?

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:24 AM (tsC/8)

285
DUNGEONS AND DRAGONS

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:24 AM (tsC/8)

286
I'm certain CAC didn't go to my prom.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:25 AM (tsC/8)

287
Multiple reasons.

Every reason.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:26 AM (tsC/8)

288 CAC graduated #4 in his high school class.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:26 AM (tsC/8)

289
ST: TNG, SW: EP1 TPM, MMORPG, BSG, B5
If you don't know what these acronyms mean, ask CAC.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:29 AM (tsC/8)

290 Watch out, CAC, your wife is cheating on you with Robert Kirkman!!!

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:30 AM (tsC/8)

291
Mrs. CAC once




was beautiful. Congratulations.

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:35 AM (tsC/8)

292 (more than once. that was meant to be an ending, unqualified compliment)

Posted by: Z Ryan at November 03, 2012 06:40 AM (tsC/8)

293 Thank you so much for all your analysis CAC! It has been MUCH savored lo these many months. And thank you Mrs CAC!!

Pudding and valu rite at the ready
Bring it home moron nation America is calling!

Posted by: ginaswo at November 03, 2012 09:58 AM (SqgBJ)

294 CAC (and of course Mrs. CAC)

Thanks for all this info for all these races. Very much appreciated for us bitter clingers who try to keep up with all this via sites like this.

Every democrat in my family is voting for the non-revenge vote, Mitt Romney. The voters span from Florida, VA and NC and a few in MI.

I will trust nothing until I see these Marxist idiot kicked out on Tuesday.

Everyone, do not be complacent, I volunteered with the romney camp to drive people who need rides to the polls. Can't do the talking on the phone to strangers, so I'm offering my time to give rides to the polling stations.

Trust nothing, dems are experts are stealing elections. Work like Romney is 10 points behind.

Go Romney/Ryan!

There is no reason not to vote, take a chair, a book and wait in line however long it takes, but do not NOT vote and take others with you.


Posted by: johnc_ex-dem at November 03, 2012 12:14 PM (3Kxux)

295 Obama wins 16 moonbat states plus DC.

Electoral college: Romney 335, Obama 203.

Popular vote: Romney 54%, Obama 45%.

Mark it down.

Posted by: currently at November 04, 2012 02:11 AM (flA6l)






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