Nate Silver, 2009: Let's Face It, Any Candidate Losing Independents "Must Necessarily" Lose the Election

Lot of things have changed since then, though.

Like, for example: Silver's preferred candidate losing the independent vote.

In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people (although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican vote. Except in certain regions of the country where one or another party encompasses a particularly wide range of ideologies (such as NY-23′s Republicans or vestigial “Solid South” Democrats), it’s independents who swing the vote, since they represent the overwhelming majority of the votes which are up-for-grabs. This must necessarily be the case.

Meanwhile, Pew finds the election tied-- but Romney wins the turnout game, and leads on the most important issues (jobs, deficit).

76% of Republican votes say they are likely to vote this year, up 7 points from September. Democrats who say they are likely to vote is unchanged since September at 62%. Almost 40% of Democrats say they are unlikely to vote or are unregistered. This 14 point edge for the GOP on those likely to vote obviates any chance for the Democrats to again enjoy a large turnout advantage.

And Romney leads Independents by 8, 48-40.

Nate Silver just increased Obama's chances of winning to 1.21 gigawatts. Whatever that means.


Posted by: Ace at 04:34 PM



Comments

1 first

Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 04:35 PM (usWYv)

2 Nate Silver: "Everything I said before is bullshit, believe me now."

Posted by: Blanco Basura at November 01, 2012 04:35 PM (4WhSY)

3 and silver is a leaking cockholster

Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 04:36 PM (usWYv)

4 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a malignant traitor.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at November 01, 2012 04:36 PM (8y9MW)

5 Who gives a shit about Nate Silver? I don't get it.

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 01, 2012 04:36 PM (mcWHD)

6 I just increased the chance of getting my boner rocked from one chicas to two chicas!

Posted by: 'Bangin' Bob Menendez at November 01, 2012 04:37 PM (RRbuy)

7 Yahoo news headline:
"Poll: Obama holds strong Iowa lead, narrower lead in other swing states"

I didn't look but I can only imagine they are yunsing the D+eleventy polls.
It would have been enough to worry me a few weeks ago, but not now.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 01, 2012 04:37 PM (YmPwQ)

8 A hack is a hack is a hack. Silver's no different.

Though it takes a lot of brass to hold yourself out as a political specialist when you fall squarely into Mark Twain's third category of liars.

Posted by: Lou at November 01, 2012 04:37 PM (xp1pq)

9 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A

Posted by: Crashpanic at November 01, 2012 04:37 PM (zU+ii)

10 PLEASE !!!!! REMOVE THE HAG ON THE SIDEBAR !

Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 04:37 PM (usWYv)

11 It's just not losing independents, its just plain losing voters...

Let's look at early voting in the liberal stronghold of Texas: Travis County (Austin TX)

Travis went 65%/35% Obama in 2008...

2008 Early Voting - 37.64% of registered voters (at end of 10th day)

2012 Early Voting - 27.87% (at end of 10th day)

This represents a Decrease of (52,929) votes cast during the first 10 days of early voting period

Compare to how Obama did versus Kerry:

Obama's Total Out-performance (early voting and election day) versus 2004 Kerry ---- 56,782

so almost all of Obama's performance versus Kerry came via people who turned-out early ... (a review of 2004 early voting period confirms that early voting has dropped to 2004 levels)...

prediction: Obama only gets about the Kerry Vote (nationwide) and Mitt will outperform W in 2004 for a comfortable win

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at November 01, 2012 04:38 PM (MAhUT)

12 Yunsing? I'm from PA but not Pittsburgh......

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at November 01, 2012 04:38 PM (YmPwQ)

13 The Barakhenatening is nigh.

Posted by: garrett at November 01, 2012 04:38 PM (FmFtv)

14 It's going to be awesome. Watching them back peddle this BS.

See... what had happened...

Posted by: Skags at November 01, 2012 04:38 PM (ahsqI)

15 Nate got lucky last time cause he had obama campaign internals.

Obama campaign got lucky last time cause they had no record and bush to run against.

There are a few little teensie weensie things different this time around.


Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 01, 2012 04:39 PM (ovpNn)

16 I think it was Marion Barry who gave Obama the best advice on how to win this election; 'Fire up the base'.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at November 01, 2012 04:39 PM (feFL6)

17 By weighting comment #17 by 18 points in my favour, FIRST!

Posted by: andycanuck at November 01, 2012 04:39 PM (nkiQM)

18

54-45 300+ECV

He's coming, he's coming, he's coming ...

Posted by: toby928© for TB at November 01, 2012 04:39 PM (QupBk)

19 I predict long before they admit they are wrong they claim its voter fraud for 3 weeks and demand recounts in all 57 states.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 01, 2012 04:39 PM (ovpNn)

20 Who is this Nate Silver fucker and why is his opinion matter? I saw a photo of him. He looks barely old enough to shave.


Posted by: Bart at November 01, 2012 04:40 PM (he2LC)

21 "Nate Silver just increased Obama's chances of winning to 1.21 gigawatts. Whatever that means."

I think it means the Libyans found him. I don't know how they did it but they did.

Posted by: DCPensFan at November 01, 2012 04:40 PM (ma/2m)

22 A propagandist dressed up as an expert for the crowd that loves to call others "anti-SCIENCE!"...

Posted by: Elize Nayden at November 01, 2012 04:41 PM (IB9y+)

23 Adrian Gray @adrian_gray
OHIO: A metric without party affiliation: counties that voted for McCain turning out at 102% of 2008 levels, Obama counties at 92%.

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 04:41 PM (ck76k)

24 Serious question:

Intrade has Romney at 33% (or so) to win.
If he wins, that's a three-bagger in five days.
I'm in a position to take a fairly decent position here.
Should I do it?

Incidentally, there is still quite a bit of cheap money to be had from "enthusiasts" who still think Obama has a 20% chance of winning NC.

Posted by: looking closely at November 01, 2012 04:41 PM (6Q9g2)

25 >>>>I think it means the Libyans found him. I don't know how they did it but they did.

Posted by: DCPensFan at November 01, 2012 04:40 PM (ma/2m)

Probably because you live in the same house as you have since at least 1955.

Posted by: Marty at November 01, 2012 04:41 PM (Zs83Q)

26 6 Nov 2012, Obamageddon.

Posted by: Blanco Basura at November 01, 2012 04:42 PM (4WhSY)

27 Er, because he has...

Posted by: Marty at November 01, 2012 04:42 PM (Zs83Q)

28 You Rethuglicans are just jealus of Nate Silver's unfallable skills with numbers and predictions. I can't wait for November 7 when his brilliance shines again. Fap, fap, fap...

Posted by: DUmmy Circle Jerker at November 01, 2012 04:42 PM (UL+ny)

29 The Schadenboners will be large and the tears of unfathomable sorrow will be many for all of us to savor on Nov 7th.

Bacchus shall indeed be pleased with the great revelry of conservatives on Nov 7th!


Posted by: FirewithFire at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (dieO2)

30

These next few days are going to be a blur...

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (LpQbZ)

31 Nate forgot to account for the racism.

Posted by: Handy Lib Excuse #1 - they at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (6JMZR)

32 As always "independents" means not registered with any Party. I am an independent. Everyone in SC is an independent because you do not register by Party.


But being an independent doesn't mean you flip flop back and forth every election. I have voted Republican every election since I started voting. That number is actually quite small. I would say less than 5%.


What determine the outcome of an election is which Party gets their base to the polls to vote. Not which one gets those few thousand flip floppers in every State.


In this election a LOT of Democrats are going to sit it out. Obama has pissed off everyone, including a significant portion of his base.

Posted by: Vic at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (YdQQY)

33 >>I saw a photo of him. He looks barely old enough to shave.


Me, too. I'm pretty sure he waxes.

Posted by: garrett at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (FmFtv)

34 See? I was right.

Posted by: Gerg at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (nkiQM)

35 Nate Silver, famous for prediction 48 out of 50 states in 2008.* It's science bitches.**

*well only 6 were really close calls and he simply bet on the guy who was already expected to win to take the majority of those races too.
** by science we mean stroking his turgid member at the thought of wish casting Obama into a 2nd term. Speaking of NS's turgid member, guess where he learned to go to the second decimal point in his measurements?

Posted by: BSKB at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (4KWOY)

36 1.21 gigawatts? 1.21 gigawatts?! Great Scott!

The only power source capable of generating 1.21 gigawatts of electricity is a 2008 Messiah!

Posted by: The Peasants at November 01, 2012 04:44 PM (dzCcw)

37 We all think Presadent Obama looked so presadential in that leather flying jacket today. His response to that storm thing will make peeple shift over and vote for him. Leedership on display !!!!!!!

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at November 01, 2012 04:44 PM (48wze)

38 Let's face it...I'm a douchebag.

Posted by: Nate Silver at November 01, 2012 04:44 PM (CfGGV)

39 Dumb enter button. That sock was supposed to read "they always turn their fuckups into attacks."

Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 01, 2012 04:44 PM (6JMZR)

40 It's just not losing independents, its just plain losing voters...



And, gaining new voters who were never on the grid to begin with, against obama.

This should be epic.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:44 PM (LpQbZ)

41 Maybe Nate is using a shoddy model full of used pinball machine parts?

Posted by: Fritz at November 01, 2012 04:45 PM (vm7ot)

42 *chuckles*

@16 I think it was Marion Barry who gave Obama the best advice on how to win this election; 'Fire up the base'.

Posted by: underdown at November 01, 2012 04:45 PM (Mxkwf)

43 I think it was Marion Barry who gave Obama the best advice on how to win this election; 'Fire up the base'.


HAHA I see what you did there... your pretty damn clever

Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 04:45 PM (usWYv)

44 Bob Krumm explained that the main problem with Silver's model is that it relies heavily on state polls and the absolute differential between the candidates. But as Bob, Ace and others have pointed out the it's likely the state polls are skewed due to their loose likely voter screens. Plus an incumbent being up by 2 with 50% support is politically very different that being at 45% with a 2 point lead. But Silver's model treats them exactly the same.

http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/?p=2456

Posted by: Mætenloch at November 01, 2012 04:45 PM (pAlYe)

45 Real good news out of Ohio

(link).

Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 01, 2012 04:45 PM (pLTLS)

46 Dandy Don Meridith is warming up the vocal cords. Someone might want to let teh JEF know.

Posted by: rickb223 at November 01, 2012 04:46 PM (GFM2b)

47 Maybe Nate is using a shoddy model full of used pinball machine parts?
Funny. I've never seen Nate at Penn State.

Posted by: mikey mann at November 01, 2012 04:46 PM (nkiQM)

48 Nate Silver is basing his prediction on the very important facts that he has gathered regarding the number of quatloos the Providers have bet on Obama.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 01, 2012 04:46 PM (GrtrJ)

49
The only two things I am absolutely certain about is: Obama will receive less than 53% of the vote.

Other than that, I do not know what will happen on Tuesday night.

The other thing I'm certain about: On Wednesday some people are going to look very very foolish.

Posted by: soothsayer at November 01, 2012 04:46 PM (jUytm)

50 $1000 says Nate Silver cascades for preferences in the East Village. If you get my drift...

Posted by: occam at November 01, 2012 04:46 PM (GSete)

51
Me, too. I'm pretty sure he waxes.

Posted by: garrett at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (FmFtv)

He must remember, wax on.....wax off!

Posted by: Mr. Myiagi at November 01, 2012 04:46 PM (lDWQr)

52 I think the name of that Mayan guy who predicted the end of civilization on Dec 21th of this year was also Nate Silver. Could be just a coincidence.

Posted by: Roy at November 01, 2012 04:47 PM (VndSC)

53 Nate Silver is an idiot. I have never watched any program with him on it and AOS is the first place I ever heard of him. I really don't give a shit what he thinks.


I even give less of a shit than the Honey Badger.

Posted by: Vic at November 01, 2012 04:47 PM (YdQQY)

54 " I think it was Marion Barry who gave Obama the best advice on how to win this election; 'Fire up the base'."

Just make sure to mix in a little choom first. You know, just to get that fire started....

Posted by: Tex Lovera at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (wtvvX)

55 Change is coming, Nate Silver. In your mouth.

Posted by: Emperor of Icecream at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (ZMzpb)

56 NumbersMuncher @NumbersMuncher
CNN has Obama up 2 in CO, 50-48. Sample is D+2 (was R+1 in 08, R+9 in 04). Even with 08 turnout, Romney likely wins CO.

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (ck76k)

57 Ace, I am begging you to break out the Done Skull if we do this. Begging. Publicly.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (6JMZR)

58 Bonus Menendez LOL (not a Photoshop, by the way):

http://pic.twitter.com/5PwvFmGM

Posted by: Ian S. at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (B/VB5)

59 Nate Silver has the Cubs winning the World Series next year at 78.4%.

Posted by: Roy at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (VndSC)

60 Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 01, 2012 04:45 PM (pLTLS)

'Who wants to Smell My Finger?'

Posted by: Mitt at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (FmFtv)

61 Nate Silver just increased Obama's chances of winning to 1.21 gigawatts. Whatever that means.

Posted by Ace at 04:34 PM


That's 1,676,277 horsepower (international).

Posted by: jwb7605 at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (Qxe/p)

62 500 quatloos against the Jug-Eared Fuck.

Posted by: pulsating, huge brain in a red plexiglass dome at November 01, 2012 04:49 PM (nkiQM)

63

Rand Paul was on Dennis Miller this morning.

He says his dad isn't getting into the "vote for Romney, to be sure O doesn't get in thing."

But, Rand said, vote for Romney.

I hate Ron Paul. For the good of the country and a stop to further destruction, he goes mum. Political Coward. Political hack.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:49 PM (LpQbZ)

64 51 Me, too. I'm pretty sure he waxes.

Posted by: garrett at November 01, 2012 04:43 PM (FmFtv)

He must remember, wax on.....wax off!

But on baby lambs?

Posted by: rickb223 at November 01, 2012 04:49 PM (GFM2b)

65 Ras has R up 3 in CO, from a Monday night sample.50-47.

Posted by: Honey Badger at November 01, 2012 04:49 PM (GvYeG)

66 Really?
You went THERE?

Where's my shiv?

Posted by: Navycopjoe at November 01, 2012 04:49 PM (YG/LY)

67 Joe Biden is speaking in Fort Dodge today.
That should be a doozy.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 01, 2012 04:50 PM (ZKzrr)

68 Moneyball 2 will feature Nate Silver looking like a genius and losing.

Posted by: runninrebel at November 01, 2012 04:50 PM (uN22/)

69 Y'all are bringing teh funneh to this comment thread.


Posted by: Uncle Mikey at November 01, 2012 04:50 PM (8qoXL)

70
And its why the polls are so infuriating. Both cannot be right.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 01, 2012 04:50 PM (PHb2k)

71 That's 1,676,277 horsepower (international).
Posted by: jwb7605

But how much is that in bayonets?

Posted by: Roy at November 01, 2012 04:50 PM (VndSC)

72 66 was for the heathen at 59 btw

Posted by: Navycopjoe at November 01, 2012 04:50 PM (YG/LY)

73 Dick list. Ron Paul. Geraldo Rivera, Twitter.

Posted by: Honey Badger at November 01, 2012 04:51 PM (GvYeG)

74 In almost every competitive general election, the party that loses the
contest has also lost independent voters. This is because most people
(although less so in gubernatorial elections) vote strictly along party
lines: the Democrat might be all but guaranteed 80 to 90 percent of the
Democratic vote, and the Republican 80 to 90 percent of the Republican
vote.


Somebody gets paid to publish obvious shit like this?

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at November 01, 2012 04:51 PM (QKKT0)

75 Nate Silver puts the chances of the Detroit Tigers winning the World Series at 82.6%.

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 01, 2012 04:52 PM (GrtrJ)

76 That's 1,676,277 horsepower (international).>>

How many Unicorn power does that make?

Posted by: Buzzsaw at November 01, 2012 04:52 PM (tf9Ne)

77 Bonus Menendez LOL (not a Photoshop, by the way):

http://pic.twitter.com/5PwvFmGM
Posted by: Ian S. at November 01, 2012 04:48 PM (B/VB5)
====


Awesome!

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:52 PM (LpQbZ)

78
I'm never wrong, and always right in my analysis. President Obama wins in a landslide, humiliating Mitt Romney and his voting buffoons for decades to come.

Posted by: Stephanie Cutter at November 01, 2012 04:52 PM (lDWQr)

79 http://tinyurl.com/ctb285a

‘Mitt Romney may well be heading to a decisive victory’

Couple days old But still good from Pethokoukis

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 04:52 PM (ck76k)

80 But if you wax your baby lambs, they won't be woolly!

Posted by: little bo peep at November 01, 2012 04:52 PM (nkiQM)

81 Now, now, consistency is a hobgoblin or something that means that libs are never wrong.


Also accurately quoting a lib is unfair, you know, this.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at November 01, 2012 04:52 PM (VtjlW)

82

The first tip off that he's full of shit is that he or his supporters won't allow any thought of criticism.

Posted by: MJ at November 01, 2012 04:53 PM (TR60b)

83 One thing's for sure - after the election I'm going to have to devise new routes to get downtown. The natives will be restless as hell in my little town. I denounce. I was downtown today and got some eyeballing.
It will be worth the hassle, though.

Posted by: tubal at November 01, 2012 04:53 PM (BoE3Z)

84 Nate Silver's models are too rudimentary to take the Joe Biden Effect into account. Let me tell you this, wingnuts: I'm stopping at every diner in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida between now and Election Day.

My legs will be numb from all the biker chicks and I'll probably chat up some Indians along the way, no doubt winning them over with my uncanny ability to fake their accent, but I'll ensure enough Independents vote Obama/Biden. And my shirt? Unbuttoned, naturally.

I'm your worst nightmare.

Posted by: Joe Biden at November 01, 2012 04:53 PM (xvtYZ)

85 It's just not losing independents, its just plain losing voters...


----------------------------------------------


This x1000. It's time to call this pig a hog.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 04:53 PM (16B11)

86 I am thinking all conservative bloggers need to headline on Nov 7th a major coordinated story on how bad the MFM and lib pollsters where and rub it deeply in their faces when we win this election.

Posted by: FirewithFire at November 01, 2012 04:53 PM (dieO2)

87 OK forget Silver.what do the money people on Vegas or Intade or Bet fair say? How much has ace put down?

Posted by: occam at November 01, 2012 04:53 PM (IIisj)

88 63




Rand Paul was on Dennis Miller this morning.



He says his dad isn't getting into the "vote for Romney, to be sure O doesn't get in thing."



But, Rand said, vote for Romney.



I hate Ron Paul. For the good of the country and a stop to further
destruction, he goes mum. Political Coward. Political hack.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:49 PM (LpQbZ)

Any potential respect i had for Ron Paul went out the window when i saw him in that hotel room with Borat as he stripped down to his underwear and instead of punching him in the balls he ran like a little bitch.
On top of that, this idiotic little isolationist crank is an idiot and once he opens his mouth and squeks like an epileptic door mouse, nobody wants to hear more than 10 seconds of what he has to say.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 01, 2012 04:53 PM (ovpNn)

89 Dick list. Ron Paul. Geraldo Rivera, Twitter.
dont forget juan williams (and all leftists everywhere)

Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 04:54 PM (usWYv)

90
What worries me is some early voters are complaining that when they hit Romney's name on their machine, O's name comes up. Maybe this is why Silver is so sure O's going to win.

Posted by: Rosalie at November 01, 2012 04:54 PM (hrNtf)

91 Nate Silver is a frustrated dork. Funny how he is a liberal demigod.

Posted by: JamesBakerIV at November 01, 2012 04:55 PM (EWBPF)

92 15 Nate got lucky last time cause he had obama campaign internals.
Nate called a blowout when it was clear there was going to be a blowout. Hey, I could predict that Alabama would crush Dartmouth in football, doesn't make me any sort of scribe.

Posted by: Barcock Obama at November 01, 2012 04:55 PM (8J5Ck)

93 But how much is that in bayonets?

Posted by: Roy at November 01, 2012 04:50 PM (VndSC)


ONE, if it's fixed to the business end of my son's rifle.

I did that conversion because it reminded me of my neighbor the other day telling me her brand new tire gauge was broken.

It said she had "over 200" of air in her tires. (exact quote)
I showed her how to push the button so she didn't get the reading in kilopascals, and got pounds per square inch instead.

Posted by: jwb7605 at November 01, 2012 04:55 PM (Qxe/p)

94 88. But but...
Silver dimes man SILVER DIMES!!!!!

Posted by: Navycopjoe at November 01, 2012 04:56 PM (YG/LY)

95
There is a 912% chance that my balls will have a slight butterscotch odor on Nov 7th.

Posted by: MJ at November 01, 2012 04:56 PM (TR60b)

96 Can I be on a dick list if I don't even have a hymen?

Posted by: cindy sheehan post hysterectomy at November 01, 2012 04:56 PM (nkiQM)

97 Let's start a list: The Most Joyous Moments of Schadenfreude on Nov. 6. I'll contribute the first item:

Nate Silver looking furtively at the others on the MS-NBC (or CNN) panel and saying, "As I have said all along, there were no guarantees here."

Oh, how I'll cherish that moment.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at November 01, 2012 04:56 PM (0jSNE)

98 Dick list. Ron Paul. Geraldo Rivera, Twitter.
dont forget juan williams (and all leftists everywhere)
Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 04:54 PM (usWYv)
====

Facebook.

They blocked the Navy Seals from posting about Benghazi.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (LpQbZ)

99 Eli Lake @EliLake
This link is better for my latest on #benghazi bit.ly/Y91Ldb State Dept. never asked for back up
Retweeted by Rick Wilson

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (ck76k)

100 You have to admit, old monster Helen Thomas's outside certainly reflects her inner beauty.

Posted by: maddogg at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (OlN4e)

101 Don't you know I could have brought the party together and beated Obama!

Posted by: Luap Nor at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (/YJYi)

102 Nate Silver says the chance of Ron Paul winning the Republican Party nomination is 76.3%

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (GrtrJ)

103
GOTV
or
STFU

Posted by: the crazy guy that keeps posting gotv or stfu at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (cgxNI)

104 I think Nate Silver is related to Greg...

Posted by: Jmel at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (c+D8V)

105 Nate Silver's models are too rudimentary to take the
Joe Biden Effect into account. Let me tell you this, wingnuts: I'm
stopping at every diner in Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida between
now and Election Day.



My legs will be numb from all the biker chicks and I'll probably
chat up some Indians along the way, no doubt winning them over with my
uncanny ability to fake their accent, but I'll ensure enough
Independents vote Obama/Biden. And my shirt? Unbuttoned, naturally.



I'm your worst nightmare.

Posted by: Joe Biden


Quit literally sock-puppeting me. I'm the real Joe Biden. I'm a genius, in the top 0% of my law school, so I know that the Indians live in Indiana.

Posted by: Emperor of the Real Joe Biden at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (ZMzpb)

106

We conservatives are going to let out such a collective sigh of CO2, that we will indeed make climate change.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (LpQbZ)

107 Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 04:57 PM (LpQbZ)

Don't know how to break this to ya, But most Computer connected companies are Lefties

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (ck76k)

108 Can I be on a dick list if I don't even have a hymen?


being a dick does not require having a penis !
and she is a huge dick !

Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (usWYv)

109 Nate Silver - still sucking kos's dick.. You should go read the rah rah articles over at Daily Kooks this afternoon..

Romney is losing bad because he's campaigning in New Hampshire!

Romney is losing badly because.. polls!

It's all over in Colorado, Ohio, and NC and FL are still in play!

Delusional.. really delusional...

I hope after Tuesday the NYT gives Nate the old heave ho...


Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (f9c2L)

110 @87

$1000...to Zbigniew Bresienski's idiotic daughter

Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (GSete)

111 @20

I know. This guy, Ezra Klein, that hermaphrodite at the Daily Kos.......

Bunch of damn girls.

Posted by: ktgreat at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (avGs3)

112 97 we at casa de joe plan to do a shot every time sharpton says racist

Posted by: Navycopjoe at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (YG/LY)

113 This whole Nate Silver thing is correlative to the global warming world. Everything they have is model-driven. And like Silver, they place great faith in the algorithms they develop for the model and in the data they stuff into it.

We need Silver to fall and fall hard. This will help take down this idiotic faith that liberals have in model-science.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at November 01, 2012 04:59 PM (0jSNE)

114

I'm going with the Oh My! HotAir meme on this one:

HUNGRY NEW YORKERS EATING OUT OF DUMPSTERS

drudge headline

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:00 PM (LpQbZ)

115
FOR THE LOVE OF GOD

TAKE DOWN THAT

PICTURE

IN THE SIDE BAR!

ITS TURNING ME GAY!

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at November 01, 2012 05:00 PM (ovpNn)

116 Romney's heading to PA on Sunday...South East Pennsylvania ....oh, my.

Posted by: jjshaka at November 01, 2012 05:00 PM (HD3v3)

117 Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at November 01, 2012 04:58 PM (f9c2L)

Are you serious?? The More you fail as a Liberal the higher you go, Bob Shrum, Bob Beckel, Joe Trippi to name 3

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (ck76k)

118
You peons do not understand my brilliance.

Who else could take a bunch of unrelated polling data and determine to 7 decimal places that Barack Obama will win no matter what?

Posted by: NYT Renowned Cock Pollster at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (zLp5I)

119 I think Nate Silver is related to Greg...

---

I'm convinced Nate Silver IS Greg.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (WMsq+)

120
These libs remind me of the same stuff we were saying 4 years ago to try to buck each other up. This heartens me.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (PHb2k)

121 As a recently converted independent I can assure you, this president has my support.

The check is in the mail, right Barry? I won't hold that "emission leak" against you.

Posted by: Chris Christie at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (JJ+PT)

122 knowing what we now know about the #BenghaziMassacre, should #SCOAMF stand for "Murderous Failure" or "Murdering Failure"?

just curious.

Posted by: redc1c4 at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (8MasJ)

123 I tried to make a dick list but no one showed up.
:^(

Posted by: sandy fluke at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (nkiQM)

124 we at casa de joe plan to do a shot every time sharpton says racist

You're gonna need a stomach pump.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (ZKzrr)

125
Nate Silver is the Nate Silver of one-time-wonder hacks.

Posted by: Lou's Tool at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (GeD0A)

126 Now that I've had the chance to think about the Gov Chris Christy/Obama love-fest and helicopter ride I've decided to try to score this...

Obama's base is not gonna give a crap that a bunch of million dollar second homes on NJ's barrier islands took a dunk in the Atlantic. Nor that Obama seems really, really eager to get them rebuilt. Class warfare wins. Base yawns and decides there better not be too big a line at the polls or they're going home.

Independents may take a fleeting glance, like the overwhelming urge to slow down and look at a fiery car crash, out of morbid curiosity, but decide it's all posturing, and decide they'd rather get their 32 year old son and his girlfriend out of their guest bedroom. Romney gets the edge.

Republicans look at Chris Christy and move him into the John McCain column for future consideration,.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (feFL6)

127 You have to send money to Intrade before you can start buying "shares". 2:1 payout looks nice. But if you haven't already set up the account and funded it, it is probably too late.


Posted by: Bart at November 01, 2012 05:02 PM (he2LC)

128 The More you fail as a Liberal the higher you go, Bob Shrum, Bob Beckel, Joe Trippi to name 3

---

Failure is a badge of honor for leftists. Paul Ehrlich, for example.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 01, 2012 05:02 PM (WMsq+)

129 ‏@msynan
Crowd for #FLOTUS event in Daytona now chanting "Hail Obama". Wow, just wow #fox35

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 05:02 PM (DGIjM)

130 HUNGRY NEW YORKERS EATING OUT OF DUMPSTERS drudge headline
Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:00 PM (LpQbZ)


-----------------------------------------


So, it's getting back to normal there.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 05:03 PM (16B11)

131 November 6th, to quote HALO 4. "Bringing the pop!" Romney for the win.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 01, 2012 05:03 PM (HiC8z)

132 Cut it out, Silver, you moron! Stop stuffing that garbage up my ass!

Posted by: Nate Silver's Magical Mystery Model at November 01, 2012 05:03 PM (0jSNE)

133 jumbo shrimp
why do you torture yourself ?

Posted by: alec at November 01, 2012 05:03 PM (usWYv)

134 120

"These libs remind me of the same stuff we were saying 4 years ago to try to buck each other up. This heartens me........."

An excellent point. We all whistled past the graveyard while voting for that ass monkey in 2008.

Posted by: tubal at November 01, 2012 05:03 PM (BoE3Z)

135 HUNGRY NEW YORKERS EATING OUT OF DUMPSTERS...









Sandra Fluke ecstatic!!!!!

Posted by: Lou's Tool at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (GeD0A)

136 Some time in the not too distant future....

Mr. Silver, you game President Elect Romney only a 0.2% chance of winning. He won. How do you explain that?

Silver: Well, I said he had a chance didn't I? I was right.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (HDgX3)

137 I've been reading some things today about the fundamentals of this race that give me considerable hope. There is a column in the WSJ today about the Evangelical vote in Ohio, how they stayed home in 2008 and how they are coming out strong for Romney. There are more than 300,000 evangelicals in Ohio. I also read an article somewhere about the Catholic vote. According to Pew, Romney now has a double-digit lead with white Catholics. Obama lost the white Catholic vote to McCain by only 5. Then I heard the radio interview by Ed Morrisssey with the pollster from Susquehanna, who explains why PA is in play.

Then there are these independent numbers as Ace notes and the fact that Barry has been below 50 in all the national polls. And there is this persistent problem of the pollsters using turnout models which in many cases are more favorable for Dems than 2008.

All these things combined, the facts sure do look good for Mitt.

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (DQMcq)

138 128
The More you fail as a Liberal the higher you go, Bob Shrum, Bob Beckel, Joe Trippi to name 3





Ahem.

Posted by: Jimmah Carter at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (JJ+PT)

139 You have to send money to Intrade before you can start buying "shares". 2:1 payout looks nice. But if you haven't already set up the account and funded it, it is probably too late.


Posted by: Bart at November 01, 2012 05:02 PM (he2LC)
====

I never looked into it, but I wonder if you can use your XE.com account to transfer funds.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (LpQbZ)

140
I'm seeing a golden opportunity in the aftermath of Sandy.

Remember Mooch's remark about getting out the early vote because your toilet might get plugged up on election day? Well - those of you that took the brunt of Sandy are in that situation. Find a way to help your neighbors get to the polls next Tuesday.

Never let a crisis go to waste.

Posted by: the crazy guy that keeps posting gotv or stfu at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (cgxNI)

141 Crowd for #FLOTUS event in Daytona now chanting "Hail Obama". Wow, just wow #fox35
Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 05:02 PM (DGIjM)


---------------------------------------------


Please let there be a link to that.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (16B11)

142 Nein! Nein!

I told zem it'z pronounced "Heil!"

Posted by: zombie dr josef mengele, abortion provider at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (nkiQM)

143 Please let there be a link to that.
Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (16B11)

People are tweeting to the reporter asking for video..

Its a freakin cult.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 05:05 PM (DGIjM)

144 So Nate Silver made a name for himself predicting the 2008 election after being fed statistics from the Obama campaign... isn't that like making a name for yourself by predicting that its going to rain tomorrow while watching the weather channel? Now we have liberal pundits from A-Z swearing by this guy and treating his political prognostications like the word of god. Statistics are fine and great even but its obvious Silver is wish-casting when he claims Obama has a 73% chance of winning. A good analogy would be that you can't write an unbiased review of band's album while your on their tour bus dreaming of sucking the lead singer off.

Posted by: Drew in MO at November 01, 2012 05:05 PM (T57vh)

145 Romney win = fraud as no way Nash Silver could be wrong.

Posted by: JamesBakerIV at November 01, 2012 05:05 PM (EWBPF)

146 Posted by: Jimmah Carter at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (JJ+PT)

Low hanging fruit

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 05:06 PM (ck76k)

147 Hillary said it took a village. Obama's village is of the damned.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at November 01, 2012 05:06 PM (HiC8z)

148
There is a 100% chance that Nate Silver will blame the data, not the model for his sucky predictions.

Posted by: MJ at November 01, 2012 05:06 PM (TR60b)

149 "127
You have to send money to Intrade before you can start buying "shares".
2:1 payout looks nice. But if you haven't already set up the account and
funded it, it is probably too late."

Plus you have to send in 2 pieces of ID to prove who you are. You think that info will be kept safe at intrade HQ? No thank you. Not worth making a couple of bucks.

Posted by: Mr. Moo Moo at November 01, 2012 05:06 PM (HDgX3)

150 Republicans look at Chris Christy and move him into the John McCain column for future consideration,.
Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at November 01, 2012 05:01 PM (feFL6)
=====


I agree.

As an aside, there's now this:

ACTUAL USA TODAY HEADLINE: 'OBAMA LAUDS BIPARTISANSHIP, ATTACKS ROMNEY'

breitbart

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:06 PM (LpQbZ)

151 All these things combined, the facts sure do look good for Mitt.


Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (DQMcq)

Just look at where the players are headed. If Obama was ahead, he'd be in NC and IN like he was in 2008. If Mitt were behind long shots like MN, PA, MI would be out of the question. So either both of them are crazy, or the polls are not telling the real story.

Posted by: Oldcat at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (z1N6a)

152 Didn't somebody do a study that proved Stalin would get a lot of votes if hwe were running today? That would explain November 6.

Posted by: USS Diversity at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (9ghZ6)

153 I hear time and time again how well Silver did in 2008 with his predictions. What I have never heard is how he did in 2010. Was he on vacation that year?

Posted by: AndrewsDad at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (C2//T)

154 Two words to those complaining 'bout dat sidebar pic:

Adblock, bitchez.

Posted by: Nventor at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (+yL85)

155

Add this to the dumpster diving:

LIVE UPDATES: REPORTS OF FISTFIGHTS, GUNS DRAWN, NAT'L GUARD PRESENCE OVER NY, NJ GAS SHORTAGES

getting ugly.

biggov

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (LpQbZ)

156 Posted by: Jimmah Carter at November 01, 2012 05:04 PM (JJ+PT)



Low hanging fruit



Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 05:06 PM (ck76k)


You rang?

Posted by: Reggie Love at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (JJ+PT)

157 So having the independent vote really gives you a leg up on the election? Duh... That being said Romney was cleaning up in the Indie vote just last week in a lot of these States, all of a sudden he isn't? How's that possible?

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (9+ccr)

158 Has anybody noted how the Des Moisne Register jerked Obama around like an old lady yanking a bratty kid? First they chided him for not allowing them to release the secret transcript. So he immediately jumps like a puppy trying to get a treat ending with, "I really, really want your [wet kiss ] endorsement." Then the next day they endorse Romney.

I must say, I surely enjoyed that little show.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (0jSNE)

159 And, TD, the Amish usually don't vote but because of Obamacare being forced on them they have an incentive to care about what the "other" are doing to them.

Posted by: andycanuck at November 01, 2012 05:08 PM (nkiQM)

160 97 we at casa de joe plan to do a shot every time sharpton says racist Posted by: Navycopjoe

I hope at least one of yours is a Corpsman or you'll all be Corpsemen.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at November 01, 2012 05:08 PM (jo069)

161 one more point about the I's going strong to Romney. For at least last 7 years, D's have been the cooler party. So, they've sucked up more in registration, Republicans trailing, thereby leaving a huge field of unregistereds. The DRI bracket should therefore be bigger WRT the I field not smaller.

If you're running a poll with DRI of 45/36/18, you're ignoring the I's and possibly inflating the R's which is lost on most because the D's are obviously the most over inflated. But since R registration has been down, that means there are tons of I's who should be R's but never bothered to register out of embarrassment.

Of course, now we hear that D registration is dropping to near 0.

What this means? A bloodbath. Say there's DRI of even, 35/35/30. That r+I number is closer to going all in for romney than we can believe.

#R60/O40

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 05:08 PM (QxSug)

162 "The More you fail as a Liberal the higher you go, Bob Shrum, Bob Beckel, Joe Trippi to name 3

---

Failure is a badge of honor for leftists. Paul Ehrlich, for example.


Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 01, 2012 05:02 PM (WMsq+)"

Being the token Lib on Fox News is not that high.

Posted by: Bart at November 01, 2012 05:08 PM (he2LC)

163 ACTUAL USA TODAY HEADLINE: 'OBAMA LAUDS BIPARTISANSHIP, ATTACKS ROMNEY'


Never forget that to a Democrat, "bipartisanship" means "you compromise with me" and ONLY that.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at November 01, 2012 05:08 PM (WMsq+)

164 & not the Village of the Damned for ObamaBOTS

Just simply The Village People

Posted by: Evilpens at November 01, 2012 05:09 PM (ck76k)

165 Crowd for #FLOTUS event in Daytona now chanting "Hail Obama". Wow, just wow #fox35
Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 05:02 PM (DGIjM)


I bet they have cleverly hidden electronic APPLAUSE signs directing them to say that.

Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:10 PM (LpQbZ)

166 @144

But GRRR! Is the best Stones album since Exile on Main street

Posted by: Jann Wenner at November 01, 2012 05:10 PM (GSete)

167 See the sock link in #142, Jumbo Shrimp and others for the Hail story (although no audio or video).

Posted by: andycanuck at November 01, 2012 05:11 PM (nkiQM)

168 Add this to the dumpster diving: LIVE UPDATES: REPORTS OF FISTFIGHTS, GUNS DRAWN, NAT'L GUARD PRESENCE OVER NY, NJ GAS SHORTAGES getting ugly. biggov
Posted by: 5 days at November 01, 2012 05:07 PM (LpQbZ)


-------------------------------------------


Baraka *smiling*: Rahm, I think we have a crisis here.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 05:12 PM (16B11)

169 How about a more gradual change? Maybe a picture of Helen Thomas ‘s bad side for a while?

Posted by: Kindle Opus Anarcus at November 01, 2012 05:12 PM (v6Iz7)

170 Nash Silver, Ezra Klein and Chris Hayes= same person. A shim, with multiple IDs.

Posted by: JamesBakerIV at November 01, 2012 05:12 PM (EWBPF)

171 It should be interesting if Catholic bishops all over the country require Catholic priests to read a letter to the parishioners on Sunday. The bishops kept their mouths shut last time, which pissed me off tremendously, but I don't think they're gonna make the same mistake twice.

Obama pissed off some people who know how to sway voters.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at November 01, 2012 05:13 PM (feFL6)

172 167 See the sock link in #142, Jumbo Shrimp and others for the Hail story (although no audio or video).
Posted by: andycanuck at November 01, 2012 05:11 PM (nkiQM)

Thanks.

That is just so beyond creepy...

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at November 01, 2012 05:14 PM (DGIjM)

173 What is wrong with NASCAR people?

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 05:15 PM (DEEk/)

174 Nate's willingness to deceive himself about the state of polling will have deleterious effects on his psychological and physical well-being. In the literature, engaging in this degree of self-deception has been associated with all kinds of Freudian mischief. He'll be banging his mother on November 7.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at November 01, 2012 05:15 PM (Ec6wH)

175 Nate Silver has constructed a Rube Goldberg machine that the Lefties look at, see all the complicated parts, and conclude "SCIENCE!1!11!," therefore being reassured when they should otherwise be very concerned.


Posted by: Alec Leamas at November 01, 2012 05:15 PM (mg08E)

176 Dick List *ammended* - Ron Paul. Juan Williams. Cindy Sheehan. Geraldo Rivera. Twitter. Chris Christie.

Posted by: Honey Badger at November 01, 2012 05:15 PM (GvYeG)

177 171,

The letter from the Bishop came out last month. Our pastor did not read it verbatim. It was included in the weekly bulletin. Our pastor said that he has become a Conservative over the past four years. LOL.

Posted by: Bart at November 01, 2012 05:16 PM (he2LC)

178 @170

Forgot Maddow

Posted by: occam's brassiere at November 01, 2012 05:16 PM (GSete)

179 I do hope you keep the pic of the hag up all week, Ace.. the reactions to it are just too funny.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at November 01, 2012 05:16 PM (f9c2L)

180 Silver made his name in Sabermetrics, where looking "beyond the beauty contest" numbers is the entirety of the business case. His PECOTA model relies on 30,000 major league man-seasons and an additional 15,000+ minor league man-seasons).

Now, he has developed a model which does nothing but look at the beauty contest numbers, or so it seems (as a simple monte carlo simulation provides similar results). And we can't quite compare a single poll result - an at-bat - to a season. A season is an election. He's on his whopping third here (granted the methods are different but we're at the bottom of t-statistic land rather than deep in z-statistic land). One would think that looking at crosstabs, momentum within crosstabs within a regular poll, would matter.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at November 01, 2012 05:18 PM (XrGnJ)

181
You can also use my top secret method of poll prediction to pick up men. You will have a 87.548762 chance of scroring.
This has been scientifically proven by 34.65 trips to the village and a weekend on Castro St in SF.

Posted by: Nuts Silber at November 01, 2012 05:18 PM (zLp5I)

182 14 It's going to be awesome. Watching them back peddle this BS.

I hope they backpedal this BS, butthey could alsouse it to "prove" Romney stole the election! Theyare in way over their heads on this, and calling foul might be the best way out they see. After all it would just rip the country apart - no biggie when you put Party ahead of country.

Posted by: sherlock at November 01, 2012 05:19 PM (LvQK2)

183 the reactions to it are just too funny.
Yeah. Freakin' hilarious.

Posted by: a moron with bleeding eyeballs at November 01, 2012 05:20 PM (nkiQM)

184 I do hope you keep the pic of the hag up all week, Ace.. the reactions to it are just too funny.
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at November 01, 2012 05:16 PM (f9c2L)


-----------------------------------------


Throughout this whole Baraka term, we thought Moochelle was Afro-American, when all she was was Helen Thomas in black-face.

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 05:21 PM (16B11)

185 #161 What this means? A bloodbath.

Speak it bro. I revised my call from "landslide" to "bloodbath" a week ago.

Posted by: sherlock at November 01, 2012 05:22 PM (LvQK2)

186 If I have any hate juice left over from taunting Mark Ruffalo on Nov. 7th via Twitter, I'll make sure to pay Nate a visit.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at November 01, 2012 05:22 PM (wrrFE)

187 "159 And, TD, the Amish usually don't vote but because of Obamacare being forced on them they have an incentive to care about what the "other" are doing to them."


They were given waivers from Obamacare. Maybe it's the Minionites that would be affected by Obamacare? But I still imagine a lot of Amish do not want to see religious liberties slip away, however.

Posted by: Mo the Girl at November 01, 2012 05:23 PM (DEEk/)

188 **185 #161 What this means? A bloodbath.

Speak it bro. I revised my call from "landslide" to "bloodbath" a week ago.**

We had our moments, Ace was joking around before first debate that we should start looking for ways to have romney make race more interesting.

These polls, and I hope I'm not being the delusional me of 2008, are completely fucked by showing the race as close.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 05:24 PM (QxSug)

189 Is it this weekend that we roll the clocks back from daylight savings time?

Posted by: Soona at November 01, 2012 05:25 PM (16B11)

190 I actually get more nervous seeing polls with closer DRI's until I realize that the new trick is to load up D + R numbers to hide how far the I's have gone for Romney.

I heard earlier it was I+20 for R which would be awesome but now we're seeing only I+8 for R which is still a done deal.

The game has been to:
1. create a meme of close race, but with Obama in lead.
2. discourage R voters

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at November 01, 2012 05:27 PM (QxSug)

191 @24

wisconsin looks like a good play too. i opened up an intrade account, but i guess i have to fund it with a wire by...tomorrow i guess. obama will not win nc.


Posted by: matt foley at November 01, 2012 05:29 PM (nxTmu)

192 I am so tired of this shit! So tired.

Axe has put his fucking 'stache on the line. Nate Silver (or, as well call him in the campaign, Little Natie) has thousands of dollars at risk in bets, along with his credibility at the Democrat Propaganda Times

I am making you a bet Ace: my manhood versus your flaming skull. That's right, I am that confident. Michelle is OK with this bet (actually she just shrugged and turned the channel but that's our secret marriage talk at work). The Presidential Pipe is on the line. And I'm going home with the skull.

Posted by: President For Life Obama at November 01, 2012 05:30 PM (ojOys)

193
Not to worry Nate - if you are correct and Obama hangs on to win with help from your bull-shit percentages , He will probably appoint you to an Ambassadorship to Lybia. I hear he needs a new one there.
And if you are wrong, well - you will still be able to be hired by any of of those leftist news-blogs or websites, or future Democrat campaigns that operate just like they do - talking a group of people that fear for their ladyparts, and the loss of their food-stamps, in live in a make believe world of Unicorn bull-shit piled at the end of rainbows.
So ya got that going for ya. . .

Posted by: builder at November 01, 2012 05:32 PM (Wl/zN)

194 Dyslexic . .

Posted by: builder at November 01, 2012 05:34 PM (Wl/zN)

195 Is it this weekend that we roll the clocks back from daylight savings time?

Yes, at the same time set your calendar back to 1950!!!111!!!

Posted by: Liberal with head stuck up his @ss at November 01, 2012 05:34 PM (feFL6)

196 Those cocksuckers over at Deadspin are now defending Nate Silver. http://tinyurl.com/bfnccqa

He really must be a liberal demi-god if the Gawker set are whining now.

Posted by: Witchfinder at November 01, 2012 05:41 PM (pLTLS)

197 He'd dowell totake his show on the road. May I suggest Venezuela, where when you make up a prediction, it comes true.

Posted by: Friendly Skies at November 01, 2012 06:01 PM (JbbCZ)

198 I posted about this at http://www.War69.com

Nate Silver goes on Charlie Rose and says he gets the 75 or 80 percent number by taking all of the stats from this year's race and comparing it to past races with numbers that are within 1 to 2 points of these numbers and 75 percent of the time the candidate with Obama's numbers wins.

But this is a statistical impossibility to claim that any past Presidential race will have the same variables, sure you might find one or two categories the same, but not enough to make a historical connection. There are no two races that will have the same percentage of independent voters etc etc. So this 75 percent number is fiction.

Now we move to Ezra Klein, he defends Nate Silver by saying hey if I told you that you had a 35 percent chance of winning a million dollars you would be elated. Yeah, of course you would be, because in NY state the odds of winning the lottery game "Sweet Million" is one in 4 million, so of course you make it one in 3 and I would be on cloud nine. But if all factors are neutral, a presidential race is a 50/50 1 in 2 chance and with the polls so tight, it is basically around the same, so telling one candidate he is now an 80 percent favorite is beyond crazy.

To compare winning a million dollars and the odds of 1 in 4 million with winning the Presidency is the kind of idiotic thinking that Klein employs when defending Obama talking points.

Posted by: War69.com at November 01, 2012 07:25 PM (ayPhb)

199 I have several thousand on intrade...all on Romney at get this... $2.50 a share. They love betting Romney down.. in fact, I think Obama or Soros is taking cash and skewing the polls, its so easy to do if you have even $20k...

If you go to the forums, you cant post unless you have an account. My name on there is Magic Kingdom and I am the one guy who is telling all of them they are going to lose their ass in a few days. Its going to be epic!

https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743475

Posted by: Magic Kingdom at November 01, 2012 07:34 PM (amSe4)

200 I realize we are supposed to acknowledge Silver's genius and integrity. I think he is a perfect example of Leftist self-delusion.

Ace was wobbly earlier in suggesting that the newspaper switch-endorsements might be a significant indicator of what is going on.

I totally respect the wisdom and insight of Ace.

But he is wrong to be wobbly about the significance of the switch-endorsements.

I am not going to research how many of those types have happened before. To my memory, totally flawed and old, it is unprecedented. In part, I say that because that many switches do not make sense, unless unprecedented.

My son was an adoring BO supporter four years ago. He will not admit he was wrong (he is young) but he now says "a pox on both their houses," an easy way out of his psychological dilemma.

My son cannot go so far as to admit BO failure. Ok. But in the periphery of perception, he understands and recognizes the political consequences of BO's (not-admitted) failure.

Many try-to-be-objective Americans still have a strong desire to have BO win, based on a try-to-be-actual assessment of his presidency.

The absurd low information and please-like-me Americans are a huge factor. Those folks are our neighbors and relatives. They are lovely folks, mostly, precisely because they are thinking what they think is the right thing to think for the best of all.

In the fog of politics, the visceral decisions of these good people is reflected by the calculating editorial boards, a per cent of whom take reality into consideration as a function of self-respect and profit.

Romney is going to win at the margin, and likely beyond.






Posted by: Tonawanda at November 01, 2012 10:03 PM (l62NP)

201 I Hate Obama as much as the next guy but we as a party have to quit being the anti-science, anti-math, anti-reason party. Everybody who is criticizing Silver just because you don't agree with him...give me a f'in break. He is just a numbers guy. He doesn't have a crystal ball...and if he did, I feel he would somehow be more widely accepted by dumbass Americans. I see Romney losing in not just Silver's model but in nationwide polling and statistical models from all over the political spectrum. Romney is going to lose. There is no need to get all butthurt over it. He sucks. We could have nominated nearly any of the other nominees and had a potential victory but we didn't and now our candidate is a crazy, pathological lying turd. We have no one to blame but ourselves.

Posted by: republicannon at November 02, 2012 10:27 AM (NzM+U)






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World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat