ADP Changes Methodology of Job-Counting;
One Analyst Thinks The Change Suggests That Friday's Revisions "Will Be a Disaster"

Assuming the BLS even releases data on Friday, which they're still hedging about. Update: Just heard on Fox the BLS is saying they will deliver the report on time.

ADP is a big payroll-service firm which releases its own assessment of job growth (or job losses), based partly on its own data.

Their new methodology occasioned a revision to their already-reported September figures.

ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation [in September] at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

...


The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of job creation is slower than the government's numbers indicate.

"It's huge, no doubt about it," said Todd Schoenberger, managing principal at the BlackBay Group in New York. "Their changing the methodology tells me that if the number is cut in half with that revision, then the revision we're going to see Friday is going to be a disaster."

I kind of hate posting expectations-game things like this. If a guy says it might be a disaster, then any non-disaster figure becomes a "win" for Obama.

Still, it's so grabby a quote I have to publish it.

But let's all remember the sudden appearance of almost a million new jobs last month, indicating a torrid pace of jobs growth that somehow managed to not show up anywhere else in America besides BLS' poll.

Update: Just heard on Fox that the "consensus" estimate from Wall Street analysts is an uptick in the unemployment rate.

Then again, who knows? Maybe another 1,000,000 phantom jobs will suddenly appear.

Posted by: Ace at 03:30 PM



Comments

1 7.5%

Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 31, 2012 03:32 PM (TB4sJ)

2 No one out of work in the whole country? I'll spread the word.

Posted by: Chip Diller at October 31, 2012 03:32 PM (3SvjA)

3 What was the effect of California's late numbers on last month's report? I missed their release somehow.

Posted by: Y-not at October 31, 2012 03:32 PM (5H6zj)

4

No one will believe it. No one.

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:33 PM (LpQbZ)

5 No one will believe it. No one.

No shit.

Posted by: Smith, Winston at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (3SvjA)

6 "But let's all remember the sudden appearance of almost a million new jobs last month, indicating a torrid pace of jobs growth"

The dollar stores in Michigan are going to need to hire a lot of part time minimum wage people to work the Christmas rush.

Posted by: nerdygirl at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (kUnhC)

7

This is a really interesting twist to the poll numbers debate by Rush:

Rush has long said polls that were skewing results earlier in the year would become more accurate the closer to the election we get, primarily because these polling groups care about their credibility as matching up with the actual election results. The problem is that there are still some polls that are using D+7 demos and are thus showing Obama winning Ohio by +5 when most other polls show a dead heat or a slight Romney edge. Thus, Rush is being challenged by listeners who want to know why they would still be skewing the polls.

Rush posits his theory that there may be polling groups that are so far in the tank for Obama that they want to help give credence to the claim of voter suppression in the case of a close election with a Romney victory. Anticipating this, Rush says Obama is working on his ‘invalidate Romney’ lawsuit strategy that will challenge the results of close elections with the claim of voter suppression and will use polling data to amplify those claims. And that’s the reason why, he says, polling groups may still be skewing results in the favor of Democrats this close to the election.


God help us.

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (LpQbZ)

8 88,000 jobs is very good. You people are always looking for ways to make Presadent obama bad. Bush lied for 8 years and you doesn't have any problems? He is trying and unemployment is down to 78%. What was it under that idiot George Bush?

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 03:35 PM (48wze)

9 ADP's new calculations put the monthly job creation [in September] at just 88,200, down from the 162,000 the firm originally reported earlier this month.

In other words, job creation was almost precisely HALF what they said it was in September.

Yep, that's some super credibility right there.

What're the odds that, even if the BLS reports numbers that are AWFUL (if they report at all), SOMEHOW the unemployment rate stays under 8%? I mean, they lie about it so much already, why not just make it up out of whole cloth? Hell, just decree that unemployment is at 5% and watch the media lap it up without flinching!

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 03:35 PM (4df7R)

10 Their new methodology

---

Not dropping acid prior to number crunching?

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 31, 2012 03:37 PM (XUKZU)

11 The folks at the Labor Dept. and BLS need to be criminally prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law if they do not correct the fraud that they perpetrated last month.

Posted by: Steven W. at October 31, 2012 03:37 PM (uqJO9)

12 I hope the job data is withheld, it only makes them look worse doing so.

Posted by: Dr Spank at October 31, 2012 03:38 PM (b+jI9)

13 FRIDAY UE SNEAK PEAK!

5.8%

VOTE FOR OBAMA!!!



**(November 7 Correction.

Unfortunately due to a clerical error. the UE numbers were accidentally transposed. We meant to say 8.5%)

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (ovpNn)

14 Get ready for our whole load.

Posted by: BLS at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (NqS7D)

15 ".............Rush says Obama is working on his ‘invalidate Romney’ lawsuit
strategy that will challenge the results of close elections with the
claim of voter suppression and will use polling data to amplify those
claims."........

Then we have become Venezuela, and St. Augustine's statement truly kicks in - "An unjust law is no law at all". We are morally free to not comply with the regime.

Posted by: tubal at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (BoE3Z)

16 Everybody knows those numbers were fraudulent before. Even had the combover on Fox say outright they were fraudulent.


I am waiting for Romney to be in office and the real numbers come out. Of course then the MFM will be all over them.

Posted by: Vic at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (YdQQY)

17 http://tinyurl.com/cqxj5sj



RNC flush with cash for endgame blitz

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (ck76k)

18

Absolutely beautiful ad by the Romney camp targeting the Hispanic community. Really, nice.

http://www.therightscoop.com/fantastico-new-romney-web-ad-fights-for-the-hispanic-vote/

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (LpQbZ)

19 Obama is working on his ‘invalidate Romney’ lawsuit strategy that
will challenge the results of close elections with the claim of voter
suppression and will use polling data to amplify those claims.

---

Meanwhile, voters in Ohio who think they are voting for the Rominator are actually having their votes cast for Teh Won. Link on Drudge.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 31, 2012 03:39 PM (XUKZU)

20 We all know that Romney will do anything to sheat President Obama out of his victory. All in the name of money. Presadent Obama doesn't care anout money, only about helping people with his government money. That is different thenGreedy Romney and using other peoples money for his owl purposes !!!!!

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 03:40 PM (48wze)

21 Obama is working on his ‘invalidate Romney’ lawsuit strategy that will challenge the results of close elections with the claim of voter suppression and will use polling data to amplify those claims
Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (LpQbZ)

I don't agree with Rush...polls are only opinions....the only poll that matters is on the 6th. If O'shithead wants to delude himself with fake numbers that's his problem.

I really don't see how that can work in his favor....maybe with the obamaphone crowd but not in a court.

Posted by: kawfytawk at October 31, 2012 03:40 PM (JWLqy)

22 And I predicted months ago that unemployment would have good numbers just before the election. Looks like that is coming.

Posted by: Vic at October 31, 2012 03:40 PM (YdQQY)

23 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
More worrisome for Dems in Cuya: clear evidence of Dem front loading EVs, and though overall turnout collapsing, Reps already past 08 #s

D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA
In Cuya OH in 2008, final week of in-person EV doubled total output of first 3 weeks. If pace of last 2 days holds, county down 40% overall

Posted by: Evilpens at October 31, 2012 03:40 PM (ck76k)

24 Posted by: Smith, Winston at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (3SvjA)



being forced to look at Helen Thomas's face, forever...

Posted by: Ed Gibbon at October 31, 2012 03:41 PM (4eNxd)

25 I "created" 4 "jobs" last night alone

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at October 31, 2012 03:41 PM (z4eur)

26 I laugh at the monthly methodology revisionism. Seems there are exactly 12 ways to calculate job numbers in a given year.

Posted by: EC at October 31, 2012 03:41 PM (GQ8sn)

27 Get ready for our whole load.

Unemployment bukake.

Posted by: fluffy #34 at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (3SvjA)

28 OT, Sorry
But I just found this on Twitchy. A tweet from TFG.
"Barack Obama

@BarackObama
Make sure your friends know how Obamacare is making health insurance more affordable: OFA.BO/6ttW4X, pic.twitter.com/PjlbP884"

I received notice a few weeks ago that my premiums are going up a whopping $148 per month for 2013, and that doesn't include how much they went up in 2010, 2011, and 2012. Does TFG have any idea at all what goes on in the real world?

And lefties think he's some kind of genius? Really?

Posted by: nerdygirl at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (kUnhC)

29 28th!

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (8sCoq)

30 Anecdotal: I am in California and the oil business is slowing down ! This at $90 a barrell... This is not a good sign. Our suppliers that are multi-industry say that they are seeing slowing across the board....

Translation.... the economy is getting worse !

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (nTgAI)

31 No shit.

And shitting creates jobs!

Posted by: Poopmeister at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (uo3Le)

32 The revisions will continue until moral improves!11!1

Posted by: cajun carrot at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (UZQM8)

33 29
28th!


Hahaha!!!

Posted by: EC at October 31, 2012 03:43 PM (GQ8sn)

34 28th!
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (8sCoq)


Piker

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 03:43 PM (nTgAI)

35 In reference Helen Thomas and her facial appearance. What cunt's is how they look inside and not her outside appearance. You peeple are so childich.

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 03:43 PM (48wze)

36 I "created" 4 "jobs" last night alone
Posted by: Bawney Fwank


And they all agreed to drop the charges?

Posted by: fluffy at October 31, 2012 03:43 PM (3SvjA)

37 Your mouths -- will all be fully employed during my second term.

Posted by: SCOAMF at October 31, 2012 03:43 PM (NqS7D)

38
Sitting in Mom's basement eating Cheetos is now counted as a "job".

Posted by: Ted Turner at October 31, 2012 03:43 PM (Bf15u)

39 Let's call Jack Welch!

Posted by: concrete girl at October 31, 2012 03:44 PM (y2Ojs)

40
Barack Hussein Obama is a Stuttering Clusterf*ck of a Malevolent Traitor

Posted by: Pipboy 3000 at October 31, 2012 03:44 PM (ggRof)

41 DAMN IT

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:45 PM (8sCoq)

42 In reference Helen Thomas and her facial appearance. What cunt's is how they look inside and not her outside appearance. You peeple are so childich.

Haven't gotten any in years, M-Clog?

Posted by: fluffy at October 31, 2012 03:45 PM (3SvjA)

43 I want Mitt to step on his throat. Finish it

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:45 PM (Dnbau)

44 38
Smokin' cigarettes and watching Captain Kangaroo

Now, don't tell me...I've nothin' to do

Posted by: Bruce at October 31, 2012 03:46 PM (z4eur)

45 "He is trying and unemployment is down to 78%. What was it under that idiot George Bush?
Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT"

I loves you, Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro. If I were a lesbian I would be all over you like white on rice. Oops, was that racist? Or homophobic?

Posted by: nerdygirl at October 31, 2012 03:46 PM (kUnhC)

46 Obama is working on his ‘invalidate Romney’ lawsuit strategy that will challenge the results of close elections with the claim of voter suppression and will use polling data to amplify those claims
Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 03:34 PM (LpQbZ)


All anyone would have to say is, "People lie to pollsters." Polls aren't hard evidence; hence why there are so many of the damn things, and why they're all over the map.

"Lies, damn lies, and statistics" could just as easily be read, "Lies, damn lies, and poll numbers.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 03:46 PM (4df7R)

47
Whatever the case might be, Friday's report or non-report will be the October surprise.

There is no way that Obama's BLS is gonna raise the UE rate 4 days before the election. None. Zero.

Either the UE rate will be falsely lowered on Friday, or there will be no jobs report released.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 03:46 PM (jUytm)

48 Not dropping acid prior to number crunching?


Posted by: WalrusRex at October 31, 2012 03:37 PM (XUKZU)

Yeah, the worms coming out of the spreadsheet really screw up the numbers.

Posted by: joncelli at October 31, 2012 03:47 PM (CWlPF)

49 This thread has a lot less polling data and manufactured eponymous sex acts.

But mostly polling data.

Posted by: Binder Full of Big Bird at October 31, 2012 03:47 PM (mAm+G)

50 Translation.... the economy is getting worse ! Posted by: The Jackhole

Oh, man. Obama might inherit another bad economy?

< Sad face >

Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 31, 2012 03:48 PM (TB4sJ)

51 Rush was wrong in predicting that poll-boys would become more accurate.


They've become WORSE: Upping the D + sampling bias in a desperate attempt to keep the base from becoming despondent / suicidal


They know that most people will not remember in four years how bad they were this year

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 03:48 PM (Dll6b)

52 "Get ready for our whole load."

A suggestion to TFG's campaign people, keep Biden away from internet porn just before he gives a speech.

Posted by: nerdygirl at October 31, 2012 03:48 PM (kUnhC)

53
No matter who wins, they have a big job in front of them. Add in Europe and China with shaky economies.

We need R/R to win, just to prevent Obama from taking us down the path to communism or fascism like what happened in so many places in the 1930's.

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 31, 2012 03:48 PM (zLp5I)

54 Win or lose I'm really, really not going to miss poll posts after the election.

Posted by: joncelli at October 31, 2012 03:48 PM (CWlPF)

55 In reference Helen Thomas and her facial appearance. What cunt's is how they look inside and not her outside appearance. You peeple are so childich.
Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 03:43 PM (48wze)

real Mary or fake Mary?

In my mind, she looks like Helen Thomas

I actually met Helen Thomas once in the 80s. I was in my early 20s. She was the same. Blech

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:49 PM (Dnbau)

56 I seem to recall that the consensus on Wall Street last time was steady UE or small decrease too. Amazing what those political mandarins at BLS come up with...

Posted by: Jollyroger at October 31, 2012 03:49 PM (t06LC)

57 Pffft, just don't count California. Or Nevada. Or Ohio. Or Michigan. Or Florida. Then everything is great!

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 03:49 PM (VtjlW)

58 Update: Just heard on Fox that the "consensus" estimate from Wall Street analysts is an uptick in the unemployment rate.

When the levee breaks, got no place to hide...

Crying won't help you, praying won't do you no good!

Posted by: EC at October 31, 2012 03:50 PM (GQ8sn)

59 43 I want Mitt to step on his throat. Finish it
Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:45 PM (Dnbau)

Curb Stomp!!!

Posted by: Ed Gibbon at October 31, 2012 03:50 PM (4eNxd)

60 No one has ever produced a study that shows any significant number of people lying to pollsters.


It's not necessary. Any turd can 'weight' his raw data to make it into anything his client wants. Any. Thing.

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 03:50 PM (Dll6b)

61 Many Eeyore's I See.

Posted by: Yoda at October 31, 2012 03:50 PM (XIsD/)

62 but but but, the BLS is made up of government professionals immune from political pressure.

Posted by: ejo at October 31, 2012 03:51 PM (GXvSO)

63 Showing that picture of Helen Thomas should be a violation of the Geneva Convention....or whatever the hell code of ethics governs internet posting.

Posted by: LGoPs at October 31, 2012 03:51 PM (BJVEF)

64
The plan is as follows:

Friday: lower the UE rate to 7.4%.

Friday, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday: Obama and media talk up the economy. Unemployment down, gas down, housing up, spending up, etc.

Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 03:51 PM (jUytm)

65 But these numbers will have no effect on the election. Just ask Gerg, if you can get him to pull the cock out of his throat long enough to answer.

Posted by: maddogg at October 31, 2012 03:51 PM (OlN4e)

66 Showing that picture of Helen Thomas should be a violation of the Geneva Convention....or whatever the hell code of ethics governs internet posting.
Posted by: LGoPs at October 31, 2012 03:51 PM (BJVEF)


Ethics...?

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 03:52 PM (4df7R)

67 "RNC flush with cash for endgame blitz"

As I said in a thread this morning, they managed to wring another small donation from me this morning. I had given 2 donations toward the end of last week, and they were on the horn to me this morning. They are pushing hard for money for ads.

Posted by: nerdygirl at October 31, 2012 03:52 PM (kUnhC)

68 I want this over. I do not want it to be close. Bo recounts, or lawyers, or court cases or hanging chads. Finish it. Go for the throat,

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:52 PM (Dnbau)

69
Re: Ace's update


Expect the unexpected, especially between now and election day.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 03:52 PM (jUytm)

70 >Showing that picture of Helen Thomas should be a violation of the Geneva Convention...


really. I just ate, FFS

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:53 PM (8sCoq)

71 the new BLS data are based on the Cleveland Steamer Theory of Applied Thermodymanics

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 03:53 PM (Dll6b)

72 I just want the number to be x.x5 so that the Left spends the whole weekend on Twitter bitching about rounoff.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 31, 2012 03:53 PM (T0NGe)

73 Wait, it might not have been the RNC, might have been Romney's people.

Posted by: nerdygirl at October 31, 2012 03:53 PM (kUnhC)

74
Then again, who knows? Maybe another 1,000,000 phantom jobs will suddenly appear.


Wouldya believe it? They fell behind the couch!

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 03:53 PM (4df7R)

75
For the benefit of this nation, we should delay the election until my hubby can get it up...which could be awhile...

Posted by: Andrea Mitchell - Truth Ministry and Sex Addict at October 31, 2012 03:53 PM (F6KtL)

76 >
"RNC flush with cash for endgame blitz"


I'm going to hit them with some cash Friday, for the last minute drive into the end zone

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:54 PM (8sCoq)

77 Ahem.

Posted by: Admiral Ackbar at October 31, 2012 03:54 PM (SCcgT)

78 I want Mitt to be like Michael Corleone. Today, all family business will be finished....Pelosi, done....Reid, done...Biden, done...Obama , done!

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:54 PM (Dnbau)

79 Just wait to you see the exit polls on Tuesday afternoon!

Posted by: Hack and Incredulous Polling Inc at October 31, 2012 03:54 PM (zLp5I)

80 68
I want this over. I do not want it to be close. Bo recounts, or
lawyers, or court cases or hanging chads. Finish it. Go for the
throat,

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:52 PM (Dnbau)

The fear that keeps me up at night is Florida 2000 in multiple states. Imagine Ohio, PA, and VA all hung up in court. Inauguration Day will come and go with no winner declared.

Posted by: joncelli at October 31, 2012 03:55 PM (CWlPF)

81 Maybe another 1,000,000 phantom jobs will suddenly appear.

---

Well, it is Halloween.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 31, 2012 03:55 PM (XUKZU)

82 Go for the throat,
Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:52 PM (Dnbau)

With the whole load?

Posted by: simpleton at October 31, 2012 03:55 PM (i3pKT)

83 By my careful and considerate calculations of analyzing data from the country, I'm full of shit.

Posted by: Nate Silver at October 31, 2012 03:55 PM (F6KtL)

84 we don't want to just win this thing
we want to WIN IT

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UceGF3M56bE

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (8sCoq)

85 For whatever it' worth the wife and I yesterday decided to forego our anniversary celebration this weekend and send the money we would have spent to Mitt and to Dick Morris for his SuperPac ads.

And if Mitt wins I want the Mormon Tabernacle Choir to sing Battle Hymn of the Republic at the Inauguration.

Posted by: LGoPs at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (BJVEF)

86 the new BLS data are based on the Cleveland Steamer Theory of Applied Thermodymanics
Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 03:53 PM (Dll6b)


Really? Because I heard they were going to be using the Cape Town Grenade rule of Sample Masturbatoryation.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (4df7R)

87
'Just wait to you see the exit polls on Tuesday afternoon!'


We already got 'em!!!

Posted by: ABC/NBC/CBS at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (F6KtL)

88 I don't agree with Rush...polls are only opinions....the only poll that matters is on the 6th. If O'shithead wants to delude himself with fake numbers that's his problem.


Hey, remember in 2004 there was whining that Bush stole the election because John Kerry (who served in Vietnam) supposedly was ahead at midday based on the polls being taken at the various voting locations. Good times. Good times.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (VtjlW)

89 Go for the throat,
Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:52 PM (Dnbau)

With the whole load?
Posted by: simpleton at October 31, 2012 03:55 PM (i3pKT)

I want him to choke on the load, k?

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (Dnbau)

90 What we have now is a commander who is taking charge. The unemployment is out of his control. He can't do anything to change the unemployment numbers, the gas prices, the GDP, or anything like that.

Posted by: Jimmy Joe at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (/YJYi)

91 Just wait to you see the exit polls on Tuesday afternoon!

Obama: 2%
Romney: 5%
Fuck You: 93%

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (ZKzrr)

92 Abracadabra, muthafuckaz!

Posted by: The Amazing Baraka at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (jKE+Z)

93 Making it with Helen Thomas is known as "The Johnny Bench"

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 03:57 PM (f95vc)

94 Our polling on election day in the late morning and early afternoon is very accurate as it captures so many of the people with no job and no ambition.

Posted by: Hack and Incredulous Polling Inc at October 31, 2012 03:57 PM (zLp5I)

95 For the benefit of this nation, we should delay the election until my hubby can get it up...which could be awhile...

Have you looked at yourself naked in the mirror lately, hon?

Now shut your yap and don't forget to pick up my crate of boner pills from the pharmacy on the way home. I'm cutting a hole in the sheets as we speak.

Posted by: Alan Greenspan at October 31, 2012 03:57 PM (SY2Kh)

96 The last 7.7 bullshit didn't add up. it has nowhere to go but up.

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 03:57 PM (nTgAI)

97 And if Mitt wins I want the Mormon Tabernacle Choir to sing Battle Hymn of the Republic at the Inauguration.


Need a split screen...choir on the top, progg heads exploding on the bottom.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 31, 2012 03:57 PM (ZKzrr)

98 Oregon bitches, screw the numbers, ride the wave

Posted by: Jean at October 31, 2012 03:57 PM (46qC3)

99 I want him to choke on the load, k?
Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (Dnbau)

DENOUNCE!

Posted by: simpleton at October 31, 2012 03:58 PM (i3pKT)

100 For whatever it' worth the wife and I yesterday decided to forego our anniversary celebration this weekend and send the money we would have spent to Mitt and to Dick Morris for his SuperPac ads. And if Mitt wins I want the Mormon Tabernacle Choir to sing Battle Hymn of the Republic at the Inauguration.
Posted by: LGoPs at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (BJVEF)

That would kick ass

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 03:58 PM (nTgAI)

101 60 No one has ever produced a study that shows any significant number of people lying to pollsters.

Well since we have a secret ballot and it's impossible to do a background check on poll responders, there's really no way to prove that people are lying. We know some do but exactly what percentage they amount to is a mystery.

Posted by: Mætenloch at October 31, 2012 03:58 PM (pAlYe)

102 I want him to choke on the load, k?
Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:56 PM (Dnbau)

DENOUNCE!
Posted by: simpleton at October 31, 2012 03:58 PM (i3pKT)

come get some

I want him to choke. on. the. load. k?

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:59 PM (Dnbau)

103 I really like the picture of Hellen Thomspon. I feel she is a very nice individual............

Posted by: Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 31, 2012 03:59 PM (48wze)

104 that pic of Helen Thomas is mesmerizing. She looks like an old Pete Puma from the Bugs Bunny cartoon..."one lump or two"...

Posted by: tofer732 at October 31, 2012 03:59 PM (2zM0P)

105 ADP is a the big payroll-service firm

Does 1/10th the paychecks in USA currently. I've actually worked for them twice in 25 years.

Posted by: DaveA at October 31, 2012 03:59 PM (MOWP1)

106

Glory Glory halellujia kick Obama out as rulah

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 03:59 PM (nTgAI)

107 Making it with Helen Thomas is known as "The Johnny Bench"
Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli

Why? Is it because it looks like a big worn leather catcher's-mitt?

Posted by: Roy at October 31, 2012 04:00 PM (VndSC)

108 Staying home from deer hunting this year to work phone banks. Finish him!

Posted by: Lemmenkainen at October 31, 2012 04:00 PM (ZWvOb)

109 If you're unemployed and help your elderly neighbor clean some crap out of their backyard and they flip you a sawbuck?

You're counted "employed" according to BLS.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 31, 2012 04:00 PM (L9WNK)

110 Staying home from deer hunting this year to work phone banks. Finish him!
Posted by: Lemmenkainen at October 31, 2012 04:00 PM (ZWvOb)

That's hardcore

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 04:01 PM (nTgAI)

111 TPNN Baby!

Tea Party News Network!

I think Drudge crashed the site when he linked it.

Posted by: Scoop at October 31, 2012 04:01 PM (ZdAo1)

112 I'll be singing "Battle Hymn of the Republic," "Dixie," "The Big Rock Candy Mountain" and fricking "O Canada!" next Tuesday when Romney wins.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 04:01 PM (4df7R)

113

I tossed Mary Clogginstein from Brattleboro, VT into Bing Images and this is the hit I got back:

http://tinyurl.com/czqtb2b

And, the funny part was this:

The Walkerville Weekly Reader apologizes for releasing this editorial before the speech was given. But let’s face it, we already know how awesome that speech will be.

Fraud through and through.

Posted by: 6 days at October 31, 2012 04:01 PM (LpQbZ)

114 Why? Is it because it looks like a big worn leather catcher's-mitt? Posted by: Roy at October 31, 2012 04:00 PM (VndSC)


No, because you have to put on a Catcher's Mask, Chest Guard, Shin Guards, and hope like hell, the umpire throws you out of the game....

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 04:01 PM (kXoT0)

115 That would kick ass
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 03:58 PM (nTgAI)


Just the thought of it brings tears to my eyes.

Posted by: LGoPs at October 31, 2012 04:02 PM (BJVEF)

116 Helen Thomas is to bonerz what combine harvesters are to corn.
Discuss.

Posted by: simpleton at October 31, 2012 04:03 PM (i3pKT)

117
They expect me to stay home on Mon, Tue, and Wed; but still get this employment data finished? I'll show them, I'll just put in Zeros for the data I do not have and will not get too.

None of the MSM or Democrats (BIRM) will even notice.

Posted by: Government Drone Worker at October 31, 2012 04:03 PM (zLp5I)

118 Why do I suspect that if Obama loses, Axlemuff won't shave his 'stache?

Or that anyone will care.

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 04:03 PM (hqI/K)

119 Michelle Malkin ‏@michellemalkin

Put on your #shockedface - ADP September U.S. private jobs increase halved after data overhaul ==> http://is.gd/A2UWhL

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (8sCoq)

120 Helen Thomas is to bonerz what combine harvesters are to corn. Discuss.
Posted by: simpleton at October 31, 2012 04:03 PM (i3pKT)

Helen Thomas is to bonerz what 33 degree water is to bonerz

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (nTgAI)

121 Combine harvesters are prettier.

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (hqI/K)

122 Don't think it will matter- no one will buy a good number (over 150K). It will be interesting to see if the rate stays under 8%...betting it will.

Posted by: jjshaka at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (ziA+c)

123 I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of jobs
suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

I fear
something terrible has happened.

Posted by: Obi Wan Obama at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (QKKT0)

124 I want Mitt to step on his throat. Finish it Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 03:45 PM (Dnbau) Curb Stomp!!!
Posted by: Ed Gibbon at October 31, 2012 03:50 PM (4eNxd)


---------------------------------------------


And then the coop dee grah.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 04:05 PM (XkwyM)

125 Don't think it will matter- no one will buy a good number (over 150K). It will be interesting to see if the rate stays under 8%...betting it will.
Posted by: jjshaka at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (ziA+c)

7.99999999999999999999999999999999%

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 04:05 PM (nTgAI)

126 7.1999999999999999%

Posted by: Paul Morphy at October 31, 2012 04:05 PM (4uMU0)

127 "Great moments... are born from great opportunity. And that's what you have here, tonight, boys. That's what you've earned here tonight. One election. If we played 'em ten times, they might win nine. But not this game. Not tonight. Tonight, we take it to them. Tonight, we stay with them. And we shut them down because we can! Tonight, WE are the electorate in the world. You were born to be patriots. Every one of you. And you were meant to be here tonight. This is your time. Their time is done. It's over. I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great team the Statists have. Screw 'em. This is your time. Now go out there and take it." -


completely stolen from
Kurt Russell playing Herb Brooks in "Miracle."

Posted by: Thunderb at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (Dnbau)

128 Well I figure the Obama administration has two choices: release unfinished sloppy data now that's a deliberate doctored lie, or wait until after the election so they don't have to release bad news.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (r4wIV)

129 The reason the poll samples are off isn't intentional bias.

Pew Research reported a few weeks ago that the response rate (% of people who agree to be surveyed after contact) has dropped from over 70% in the '80s to 37% in 1997 and all the way to 9% on average today.

A disproportionate number of those who refuse to talk to pollsters are Republican, conservative, Tea Party people. That means the poll of possible respondents left is by definition more Democratic than the public at large. It's not the polls that are biased, it's the samples, and it's conservatives who are doing it by not playing along.

The poll just out showing Obama ahead in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio also shows Republican turnout will be LOWER than 2008 for McCain. Anyone believe that? But it's what they found - because we hang up on them.

Posted by: Adjoran at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (ZHQvg)

130
I agree Mawy, everyone here wants to make oblameless look bad, because EVERYONE we know, and EVERYONE the Republicans know, and EVERYONE Romney knows, is a 1%. Those relatives of ours who belong to the 99%-f*ck'em. Any of our friends who don't belong to the 1%...well, theyREALLY aren't our friends...I mean, c'mon.
Thank you, dear madam, for your sensibilities. It's refreshing to hear a sane voice(much like Greg), among the aoshq elite.
Aperitif, anyone?

Posted by: James William Bottomtooth III at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (BHM5V)

131 109 If you're unemployed and help your elderly neighbor clean some crap out of their backyard and they flip you a sawbuck?

You're counted "employed" according to BLS.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 31, 2012 04:00 PM (L9WNK)

--Yup, the part-time bagger at Whole Foods and the CEO of Boeing each count as "1" in the "employed" column.

The Øbameconomy!

Posted by: logprof at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (jKE+Z)

132 BLS counts employment like Olbermann counted viewers: slice and dice the numbers enough and you'll come out #1 even while bringing in the rear.

Posted by: Underground Vulgarian at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (Xc+gi)

133 Does the BLS count volunteering for Sandy reconstruction work as an additional job? If thousands of people are counted twice, uptick, baby!

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (F0K0r)

134 As I posted in an earlier thread when I linked this, the important thing is they revised last month's way down.

So that means they can count those jobs as newly created again this month, if BLS follows suit.

Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 31, 2012 04:07 PM (DnLl2)

135 Mitt and Ann Romney
and the Republican Team



Saturday, November 3, 2012
Doors Open 3:00 PM | Program Begins 6:00 PM


Comfort Dental Amphitheatre
(Fiddler’s Green)
6350 Greenwood Plaza Boulevard, Englewood, CO 80111

http://tinyurl.com/ct3u5ge

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 04:07 PM (8sCoq)

136 @44: Statler Bros fan?

Posted by: Tim the Enchanter at October 31, 2012 04:08 PM (izA2D)

137 Staying home from deer hunting this year to work phone banks. Finish him!

Dude... I don't know whether to be impressed or disturbed by that level of dedication.

I'm going hunting this weekend. For the opportunity to be distracted from the election for a few days, I'd still go if I had to use a pointy stick instead of a rifle.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 04:08 PM (SY2Kh)

138 From The Roanoke Poll: "Employing a more stringent screen for likely voters (N=503) increases Romney's lead to 54 percent to 41 percent and Allen's lead to 51 percent to 39 percent"

Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 04:08 PM (gjIQF)

139 Well that's enough inguneering for 1 day. I shall now proceed to a fine establish and drink 5 of HeatherRadish™'s 7 needed beers. Because I care.

Posted by: Muad'dib at October 31, 2012 04:08 PM (KjlbF)

140 These aren't the jobs you're looking for

Posted by: Obi Wan at October 31, 2012 04:08 PM (i3pKT)

141 I'm going to hit them with some cash Friday, for the last minute drive into the end zone
Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 03:54 PM (8sCoq)


If you're going to do it, do it now. If you put in a donation online on Friday the money won't hit their bank account until election day.

Posted by: Paul Morphy at October 31, 2012 04:08 PM (4uMU0)

142 Hey this is great, a million people have left the work force and given up looking for work last month! This will get the unemployment rate down another 0.5%.

Posted by: Government Drone Worker at October 31, 2012 04:09 PM (zLp5I)

143 Helen Thomas is to bonerz what 33 degree water is to bonerz
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (nTgAI)

I was thinking more along the lines of dry ice.

Posted by: tofer732 at October 31, 2012 04:09 PM (2zM0P)

144 Do those of us who are confident get to taunt the eyeores as well as the Gergs when we win?
If we lose it's over anyway.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 31, 2012 04:09 PM (YmPwQ)

145 Yep, that would be establishment. stooopid autocorrect

Posted by: Muad'dib at October 31, 2012 04:09 PM (KjlbF)

146 As I posted in an earlier thread when I linked this, the important thing is they revised last month's way down.So that means they can count those jobs as newly created again this month, if BLS follows suit.
Posted by: Nicholas Kronos at October 31, 2012 04:07 PM

Unless they go full retard they have already used thier one free punch to the nuts ( boxing )

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 04:09 PM (nTgAI)

147 Oh for heaven's SAKE. Biden did it AGAIN! The Drudge link reads as follows:

(Biden) Calls CLEVELAND PLAIN DEALER major newspaper 'in this state' -- while in Florida!

That's it, it's time for Joey to be put out to pasture.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 04:10 PM (4df7R)

148 They can't put UE up in case Romney gets in. They need to give him a starting number that's as low as possible.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 31, 2012 04:10 PM (lnaWp)

149 >If you're going to do it, do it now. If you put in a
donation online on Friday the money won't hit their bank account until
election day.

Posted by: Paul Morphy at October 31, 2012 04:08 PM (4uMU0)


DAMN IT

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 04:10 PM (8sCoq)

150 ADP and BLS both have published so much obviously ridiculous numbers for awhile now that most of the people on the business/stock market web site that I frequent just ignore the things, good or bad. I think the general public has gotten to that point, too.

That said, I'll be shocked if the BLS doesn't give Obama a good headline number tomorrow to be revised massively downward post-election.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 31, 2012 04:11 PM (qEkGZ)

151 If the numbers are median, expect Axeldouche to rope-a-dope it. Hold the BLS release, let the Mitt surrogates whine all weekend, then drop on Monday or even Tuesday morning for some sort bitch feel.

Posted by: Jean at October 31, 2012 04:11 PM (pawS5)

152 Phantom Jobs are totally appropriate for Halloween

Posted by: Dept. Of Accuracy Dept. at October 31, 2012 04:11 PM (+I8Mq)

153 Kurt Russell playing Herb Brooks in "Miracle."


I need to watch that again.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Coming not nearly soon enough. at October 31, 2012 04:11 PM (VtjlW)

154 The Bureau of Labor Statistics. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

Posted by: Obi Wan Choom Choom at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (i3pKT)

155 >Do those of us who are confident get to taunt the eyeores as well as the Gergs when we win?

If we lose it's over anyway.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 31, 2012 04:09 PM (YmPwQ)


iF WE LOSE, it'll be the mother of all hangovers. If we win, I intend to be merciless

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (8sCoq)

156
Helen may not be the prettiest thing on four legs, but she can still deliver the ol' Gaza City Crockpot like nobody's business.

Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (4I3Uo)

157 The Bureau of Labor Statistics. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.
Posted by: Obi Wan Choom Choom at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (i3pKT)


...until you look next door at the EPA.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (4df7R)

158 You have no faith in the faux Messiah. Jobs for everyone-as soon as everybody gets their power back and the water recedes jobs will be rolling in.

Posted by: FenelonSpoke at October 31, 2012 04:13 PM (XSFXq)

159 Helen may not be the prettiest thing on four legs, but she can still deliver the ol' Gaza City Crockpot like nobody's business.
Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (4I3Uo)


Okay, I laughed so hard I snorted. "Gaza City Crockpot." *SNORT!!*

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 04:13 PM (4df7R)

160 The soft ADP count could add credence to those who believe the pace of
job creation is slower than the government's numbers indicate.





Really? Worse than what the government says. How can that be?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 31, 2012 04:13 PM (1Jaio)

161 Oh look Helen's here...where's my wingman...?

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 04:13 PM (f95vc)

162 Comfort Dental Amphitheater?

This purchasing of venue names has to stop.

it's just . . just WRONG!

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 04:13 PM (hqI/K)

163 I know I'm being Eeyoreish, but I can't believe the BLS would release a number that would hurt obama this close to the election...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 04:14 PM (9+ccr)

164 60 No one has ever produced a study that shows any significant number of people lying to pollsters.

Yes, they have.

The Ohio "early voting" polls prove it all by themselves. The polls say that something like 30% of everyone has voted early. Already. That would be well into the millions of votes.

And yet there have -not- been millions of votes cast. Yet. The error is something like 15% off. Meaning 15% - (1/2 MoE) or around 12% of the people polled must have been lying on that specific question.

Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 04:14 PM (MzQOZ)

165 155...I have a case of beer ready. Same deal....win, epic victoryparty, lose, epic doomsday party.
But I'm expecting to win.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at October 31, 2012 04:14 PM (YmPwQ)

166 I find your lack of faith disturbing.

Posted by: Choom Vader at October 31, 2012 04:14 PM (i3pKT)

167 The Bureau of Labor Statistics. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy. Posted by: Obi Wan Choom Choom at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (i3pKT) ...until you look next door at the EPA.
Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Binder Hobbit and ABO Supporter at October 31, 2012 04:12 PM (4df7R)


------------------------------------------------


Take a walk down the street and take a look at us.

Posted by: The IRS at October 31, 2012 04:14 PM (XkwyM)

168 If youre not careful, you'll find yourself in an Upper East Side Upper Decker!

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 04:14 PM (f95vc)

169 >Comfort Dental Amphitheater?

This purchasing of venue names has to stop.

it's just . . just WRONG!



The place used to have a perfectly good name- Fiddler's Green

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 04:15 PM (8sCoq)

170 You morons and moronettes talk like you don't trust this administration.

Posted by: Havedash at October 31, 2012 04:15 PM (F0WNa)

171
The Bureau of Labor Statistics. You will never find a more wretched hive of scum and villainy.

Oh but we disagree. Oh do we ever disagree.

Posted by: ATF - Fast and Furious at October 31, 2012 04:15 PM (F6KtL)

172 The poll just out showing Obama ahead in Florida, Virginia, and Ohio
also shows Republican turnout will be LOWER than 2008 for McCain. Anyone
believe that? But it's what they found - because we hang up on them.


THIS.

Outfits like Gallup don't make money by being intentionally inaccurate, and election polling isn't what keeps them in business. If they tried to weight on a guesstimated D/R split, the left / MSM would scream that they're manipulating the numbers.

And they'd have a point, because nobody can accurately predict what the D/R split will be- especially for individual swing states.

Are the polls 100% accurate? Not even close. But no grand conspiracy or intentional bias necessary to explain why they're not. They're not accurate because they can't be due to self-selection bias.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 04:16 PM (SY2Kh)

173 Which will result in a Manhattan Chowder Launcher

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 04:16 PM (f95vc)

174
Okay, I admit being into details (former underwriter) but does anyone know how ADP's methodology is changed?

Posted by: Justamom in Achin' Akin's district at October 31, 2012 04:16 PM (Sptt8)

175 Combine harvesters are prettier. Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (hqI/K)

Yup, and useful. All thomas ever did was produce vile Anti-Semitic dreck and look bad while doing it.

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 04:16 PM (kXoT0)

176 "It's more than a mouthful - it's Watchamacallit!"

"Melts in your mouth - Not in your hand!"

"Get the sensation!"

"Sometimes you feel like a nut, sometimes you don't!"


Gee Wally, those candy slogans are kinda suggestive. Jeepers!

Posted by: Count de Monet at October 31, 2012 04:16 PM (BAS5M)

177
Update: Just heard on Fox the BLS is saying they will deliver the report on time.

Then we can rule out a rise in UE.

Posted by: soothsayer at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (jUytm)

178 85 And if Mitt wins I want the Mormon Tabernacle Choir to sing Battle Hymn of the Republic at the Inauguration.

Look them up on YouTube. Brings a tear to the eye. Even though it is a yankee song.

Posted by: rickb223 at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (GFM2b)

179 Who is more choom? The choom, or the choom that follows him?

Posted by: Obi Wan(ts) Romney at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (i3pKT)

180 It's over, Bammy...

Posted by: DangerGirl (@deadlyestrogen) at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (GrtrJ)

181 Comfort Dental Amphitheater?This purchasing of venue names has to stop.it's just . . just WRONG!
Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 04:13 PM (hqI/K)


------------------------------------------


I can't wait to see who builds the Exlax Dome.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (XkwyM)

182 Any news on Slo Joe's appearance at the Dental Damphatheatre at Full Loads Gardens?

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (f95vc)

183 I haven't written this lately, but the words fly from my fingers:


Obama is a stuttering cluster*ck of miserable failure.


The King has no clothes, and his beard's dick is bigger than his

Posted by: MoeRon at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (QQ6Mb)

184 Adorjan, don't hang up! Remember your are a female, Hispanic on welfare - but your not sure who you will vote for

Posted by: Jean at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (Pvjul)

185 Translation.... the economy is getting worse !
Posted by: The Jackhole at October 31, 2012 03:42 PM (nTgAI)

Everyone I know--family, friends, acquaintances--is struggling and has been struggling for going on five years. Most consider success a matter of holding their own, keeping what they have. Anecdotal and localized, I know,but it brings to mind (my mind anyway) the old Soviet Union, which would proclaim success of the latest five-year plan or extoll the prosperity of the system; meanwhile, ordinary people looked around and saw and felt the enormous disparity between what they were told and what they were personally experiencing.

We're in a Depression. We've been in a Depression since 2008. People adjust, adapt, and endure as they always have. My big fear? An Obama reelection means a new normal not normal at all, one where people forget what prosperity means. Or freedom.

We so badly need to win this thing.

Posted by: troyriser at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (vtiE6)

186 The reason the poll samples are off isn't intentional bias.

That's all true, but there's some bias involved, too. I think bigger more reputable organizations like Gallup and Rassmussen are trying to be as objective and accurate as they can be (especially this late in the election) but other firms like PPP... not so much.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 31, 2012 04:18 PM (r4wIV)

187 I must have lived a sheltered life. These sexual references with baseball names and such I've never heard of. There's a Country song out called the Pontoon, which is one of those flat boats that go slow and one of the lines is "sitting there a floatin, motorboating" and I was singing along and my Husband and Son laughed their heads off because 'motor boating" means something I never heard of

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 31, 2012 04:18 PM (9+ccr)

188 158 You have no faith in the faux Messiah. Jobs for everyone-as soon as everybody gets their power back and the water recedes jobs will be rolling in.
Posted by: FenelonSpoke at October 31, 2012 04:13 PM (XSFXq)


The water will never recede out of NYC. Bloomberg wouldn't let choomie in the city to do his Moses act. New Jersey, however, will be made dry.

Posted by: Havedash at October 31, 2012 04:19 PM (F0WNa)

189 116 Helen Thomas is to bonerz what combine harvesters are to corn. Discuss.------------------------------------------

I would rather trade places with the corn in that particular scenario.

Posted by: Virginia SoCon at October 31, 2012 04:19 PM (+/C3g)

190 Friggin NRO has been offline all day. They need a new IT guy

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 31, 2012 04:19 PM (8sCoq)

191 Ok, hypothetical Whodjado..Helen Thomas or Loren Green? Helen Thomas or a Woodchipper? Helen Thomas or Michael Moore? Discuss...

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 31, 2012 04:19 PM (f95vc)

192 I was singing along and my Husband and Son laughed their heads off because 'motor boating" means something I never heard of

The son I can understand but the hubby should be more grown up than to giggle about something like that.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 31, 2012 04:20 PM (r4wIV)

193 >>>I can't wait to see who builds the Exlax Dome.

Depends™.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at October 31, 2012 04:21 PM (uW4J6)

194 OK, I'm changing my Halloween costume to "Phantom Job-holder".

Posted by: Tex Lovera at October 31, 2012 04:21 PM (wtvvX)

195 191: Michael Moore - His anus is an 18 lane, paved superhighway.

Posted by: MoeRon at October 31, 2012 04:21 PM (QQ6Mb)

196 BLS == Scum, Villainy

ATF == Keystone Kops

IRS == Vampires

EPA == Smelly Hippies

DoE == Sierra Club

HHS == Drunk Nannies

TSA == Perverts, Bullies ++ Petty Thieves

FBI == CIA Watchers

CIA == Whut?

DoD == Self Defenders

Posted by: Jcw46 at October 31, 2012 04:21 PM (hqI/K)

197
"And if Mitt wins I want the Mormon Tabernacle Choir to sing Battle Hymn of the Republic at the Inauguration."

I plan to sneak up on my mourning lib friends and give 'em the ol' Salt Lake Chinstrap just to rub it in.

Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 04:21 PM (4I3Uo)

198 because we hang up on them.


Posted by: Adjoran at October 31, 2012 04:06 PM (ZHQvg)


how do you know this? Do you know-know it, or are you projecting what you do?

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 04:23 PM (Dll6b)

199 dave in fla: talk me off the ledge. the Richmond news doesn't want to report the Roanoke College poll showing R/R up by 5--they just want to quote the Quinnipac poll. Plus interview Madeline Albright.

help me!!!!

Posted by: kelley in virginia at October 31, 2012 04:23 PM (HNwOT)

200 The King has no clothes, and his beard's dick is bigger than his Posted by: MoeRon at October 31, 2012 04:17 PM (QQ6Mb)

Didja ever wonder if Reggie and Moochillini had a comparison as to who had the bigger one and Reggie slunk out of the WH in shame....?

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 04:23 PM (kXoT0)

201 If I freeze to death, can one of the 'ettes pose as me and come vote in CT? Kthxby.

Posted by: Tami from her phone cuz Gaia took away my power at October 31, 2012 04:23 PM (1ONhE)

202 174: This is from a report yesterday: "The ADP National Employment Report is derived from transactional payroll data and not just survey data, making it a powerful labor market indicator," *** "we are enhancing the monthly report, which we are confident will further align the ADP National Employment Report findings with the BLS's fully revised numbers." The previous report provided three company-size classes. The enhanced ADP National Employment Report offers data according to five company-size classes.*** In addition, the enhanced report will provide an expanded snapshot of the monthly change in nonfarm private sector employment by moving from reporting on three industries to five industries." Blah, blah, blah.

Posted by: LASue at October 31, 2012 04:24 PM (gjIQF)

203 O//T But goes to show the absolute insanity in liberal academia

Yesterday, my son's history professor started the class lamenting that she could not share her political views with the class. She then launched a power point slide show on Greece's history and policies. "Coincidentally", the last slide was a picture of Hitler, Ghadaffi, and Bill O'Reilly.
He confronted her after class and asked her to apologize to the entire class. We'll see what happens on Friday.

Posted by: westminsterdogshow at October 31, 2012 04:25 PM (W3UHW)

204 "A disproportionate number of those who refuse to talk to pollsters are Republican, conservative, Tea Party people."

Not this guy. I like messing with them. Told this nice lady I was a lifelong Democrat and would crawl over broken glass to vote for Romney.

Posted by: Emile Antoon Khadaji at October 31, 2012 04:25 PM (CrJzY)

205 I plan to sneak up on my mourning lib friends and give 'em the ol' Salt Lake Chinstrap just to rub it in.
Posted by: Jaws at October 31, 2012 04:21 PM (4I3Uo)


---------------------------------------------


I plan on giving them the Bowlegs Weasel.

Posted by: Soona at October 31, 2012 04:26 PM (XkwyM)

206 "It's huge, no doubt about it,"...


That's what she said.

Posted by: Michael Scott at October 31, 2012 04:27 PM (BAS5M)

207 Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 04:16 PM (SY2Kh)


If a pollster applies a D + bias with no basis in reality ( like using 2008 D + 8 despite NO evidence that turnout will be the same ), that IMHO is being intentionally inaccurate


conspiracy? Yes, but not conspiracy-conspiracy...


self-delusion

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 04:28 PM (Dll6b)

208 205: Golden showers for all the dims!

Posted by: MoeRon at October 31, 2012 04:28 PM (QQ6Mb)

209 185 ...Everyone I know--family, friends, acquaintances--is struggling and has been struggling for going on five years. Most consider success a matter of holding their own, keeping what they have...
...We're in a Depression. We've been in a Depression since 2008. People adjust, adapt, and endure as they always have. My big fear? An Obama reelection means a new normal not normal at all, one where people forget what prosperity means. Or freedom.
We so badly need to win this thing.
Posted by: troyriser



I agree- if it weren't for my wife's death benefit
( Oh, joy! ) and piecework- runner for a realtor, mowing, clearing land- and that is no regular paycheck-- I'd be living under the Lanier Bridge. I have never seen it so bad and I can vaguely remember Truman.

Posted by: backhoe at October 31, 2012 04:28 PM (ULH4o)

210 Quinny polls are sh*t --- PPP polls are sh*t ---- Zogby polls are..........


sh*t 2.0, to the nth

Posted by: Ben in Benghazi at October 31, 2012 04:29 PM (Dll6b)

211 The son I can understand but the hubby should be more grown up than to giggle about something like that.

Motor boating is nothing to laugh at. Improperly performed, it can kill.

Posted by: Wendy Whoppers at October 31, 2012 04:32 PM (QKKT0)

212
Now that I read Market Watch- Wall St. Journal article on this I'm even more curious.
ADP is now employing Moody's Macroeconomic Advisors, in order to get their numbers more in line with the BLS, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
???
Their sample size has been modified from 344,000 companies to 406,000 and from 21 million workers to 23.
Their industry categories have gone from three to five.

AND, does ADP only derive data from their customers?
Small businesses generally handle their own payroll, and issue checks at irregular intervals.

Posted by: Justamom in Achin' Akin's district at October 31, 2012 04:32 PM (Sptt8)

213 I sure hope the chocolate ration is increased.

Posted by: Naes at October 31, 2012 04:33 PM (r4dYV)

214 Phantom. Jobs. A Democrat Bonus. (Let's just call everyone picking up cans and stealing copper pipes "employed" and get it over with.)

Posted by: dfbaskwill at October 31, 2012 04:35 PM (71LDo)

215 I sure hope the chocolate ration is increased. Posted by: Naes at October 31, 2012 04:33 PM (r4dYV)

It has been a factor of 5 from .3 oz to to .15 oz. All hail the glories of the obama, Peace Prize Be Upon him.

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 31, 2012 04:36 PM (kXoT0)

216 how do you know this? Do you know-know it, or are you projecting what you do?

There was an in-depth Pew poll (-much- larger samples, trying to figure out answers to 'meta' questions) that returned with a 9% response rate. That is: They pick the numbers scientifically in an attempt to balance things. (This many urbanites, that many suburbanites, this many whites/blacks/Martians). But they are only getting 9% of their scientifically chosen group. So they have to keep expanding the polling to make it to a reasonable Margin of Error.

But it's no longer anywhere near as scientific if only 9% are responding. That's way too much self-selection.

So they -set-out- to get a balanced poll. And for some unknown reason, republicans aren't responding. (That's what the internal numbers show.) Democrats are -also- responding somewhat less. But R's -not- answering the phone.

They could have apathy, but I don't buy it. Or they could see pollsters as a part of the opposition and be refusing to play. I do, so... shrugs.

Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 04:37 PM (MzQOZ)

217 If a pollster applies a D + bias with no basis in reality ( like using
2008 D + 8 despite NO evidence that turnout will be the same ), that
IMHO is being intentionally inaccurate

conspiracy? Yes, but not conspiracy-conspiracy...



They don't weight on D/R split. They might be using a 2008 model with regards to more stable demographics like sex, race, etc but not on likely voter party affiliation- that changes wildly election to election.

If their poll shows a D+8 sample, it's because eight percent more Dems chose to participate in the poll.

Given the distrust we see in this very thread towards institutions like pollsters, is it really so hard to believe that perhaps Republicans are less likely to participate in the poll when they believe the pollster calling is corrupt and/or incompetent?

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2012 04:42 PM (SY2Kh)

218 "If their poll shows a D+8 sample, it's because eight percent more Dems chose to participate in the poll."

Well, it's more likely that if a poll has a D+8 skew it comes from the pollster choosing to use a model that has that type of demographic.

They would assume that if 2008 had 20% turnout in the 18 to 29 demographic, and the trend was for that demographic to increase 2% this cycle, then they would weight the responses of these people to 22%. If the overall sample was 850 people and only 15 were of that age, they would use those responses as if 187 people answered that way.

Although the margin of error in that subgroup would be +/- about 7, they would report it as if it were real science. Same thing with single women, minorities, etc. Since the numbers were there in 2008, they can justify using the demographic weighting that translates to wildly skewed D/R/I numbers.

Posted by: jwest at October 31, 2012 04:52 PM (ZDsRL)

219 Phantom job? Never given one of those, but I bet I'd be great at it.

Posted by: Sandra Fluke at October 31, 2012 04:52 PM (GeD0A)

220
The only problem with phantom jobs is the phantom paycheck

Posted by: kj at October 31, 2012 04:57 PM (AW9md)

221 At least I wont bust a knuckle on a phantom job

Posted by: Dept. Of Accuracy Dept. at October 31, 2012 04:58 PM (+I8Mq)

222 Although the margin of error in that subgroup would be +/- about 7, they would report it as if it were real science.

This is the piece that completely burns me up.

The Margin of Error is: 'There is a 95% chance that if we used exactly the same methodologies and procedures again, we'd get a result within these bounds.'

That is, it is not 'The one true answer to the question posed lies in this range.'

Not. Not. Not.

Posted by: Al at October 31, 2012 04:59 PM (MzQOZ)

223 I'm boned, aren't I?

Posted by: president downgrade at October 31, 2012 05:28 PM (QupBk)

224 I just have a hard time believing Obama would EVER allow a bad job report to come out before the election. I honestly believe he would find a willing patsy in that department to go to prison before releasing the real numbers if the unemployment rate is truly increasing. I'm not joking.

Think about it, how much "ink" would a "mistake" in the jobs reports get after the election, even if pointed to obvious political mischief? And who would care?

Still, it might be a situation where it could blow up if he pulled this and his Presidency would be more reviled than Nixon, and is just going to have to allow a bad number to come out.

If the unemployment rate ticks up, Obama is going to be looking at a 1988-style landslide.

Posted by: McAdams at October 31, 2012 05:30 PM (2FqGG)

225 "indicating a torrid pace of jobs growth that somehow managed to not show up anywhere else in America besides BLS' poll."


A couple of them fell on our roof last week. Or maybe they were sharks.

Posted by: PJ at October 31, 2012 06:06 PM (DQHjw)

226 123I felt a great disturbance in the Force, as if millions of jobs
suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.

I fear
something terrible has happened.
Posted by: Obi Wan Obama at October 31, 2012 04:04 PM (QKKT0) Warned youI did, listen, you did not.

Posted by: Johnnyreb at October 31, 2012 07:44 PM (abtCM)

227 ...or maybe their using those 5,000,000 shovels to bury what barry did in libya!

Posted by: WhiteFalcon1 at October 31, 2012 08:19 PM (T1yEe)






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