Romney Headed To Wisconsin on Monday

And not a moment too soon.

A new CNN poll has Ohio Obama 50, Romney 46. With a not-at-all objectionable split (small D skew).

But one thing about that poll: It has Obama leading with Independent voters. @baseballcrank points out this is an outlier:

The reason Ohio is giving me the shakes is that I haven't seen a single poll with Romney ahead there. I see some times, and more Obama leads.

It is true that if someone wins the national popular vote by 1% or 1.5% or more, the odds of him losing the electoral college are very small.

The trouble is, the current RCP average has Romney leading by 0.9%. At that level of difference, the race really would come down to how independently-acting swing states voted. And on that count, we're behind.

Or so the polls say.

And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, & a rafter.

But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair some with this analysis.

He argues -- with charts and numbers and all sorts of crazy math -- that there is a very strong correlation between the independent vote and the the total vote received by a candidate.

Thus pushing back against this idea that Obama can afford a loss in independents but make up for it with Democratic turnout.

The problem for Obama, as Josh Jordan has pointed out here (with regard to the national polls) and here (with regard to the Ohio polls) and the Romney campaign addressed in a memo on Ohio on Thursday, is that whatever the toplines say, Obama is losing independents and losing them by a significant amount. Jordan’s analysis of the polls at the time showed Obama down, on average, 8.3 points with independents nationally and 8.7 points with independents in Ohio. If that holds (more on which below), and unless Obama can sustain the kind of significant edge in loyal partisan votes he had in 2008, he’ll end up behind.

...

Everything in the latest polls suggests doom for Obama with independents. This morning’s Washington Post poll has him down 20 with independents, 58-38. The Rasmussen national tracker has him down 17 today. Today’s IBD/TIPP poll has him down 10, 48-38. SurveyUSA/Monmouth has him trailing by 19, 52-33. The outlier, SEIU/DailyKos pollster PPP, had Romney up 2 yesterday with independents, 47-45, after the PPP tracker showed him up 10, 51-41, three days earlier. In this morning’s swing state poll, Rasmussen shows Romney leading Obama by 11 with independents.

Well, it's a good argument.

I'd feel better if I didn't even need an argument, though, you know?

What I'd like is either an RCP average of Romney +4-5%, nationally, or a few polls with Romney ahead in Ohio.

Or: Wisconsin.

Which seems a better state for us.


Posted by: Ace at 04:55 PM



Comments

1 Jeez. Even I don't so whiney

Posted by: Gerg at October 26, 2012 04:56 PM (PY0du)

2 ORCA

Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 04:57 PM (cgxNI)

3 Ohio. What is wrong with this state?

Posted by: Sheldon Cooper at October 26, 2012 04:57 PM (mcWHD)

4 Well - since the polls are all going our way, there is no need to worry about actual voting.

Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 04:57 PM (cgxNI)

5 Look at the bright side ace, if SCOAMF wins - blog gold.

What are we gonna bitch about if he loses? Lifesmanship? Of course the country would be much worse off, but traffic is traffic.

Posted by: JollyRoger at October 26, 2012 04:58 PM (t06LC)

6 300 EV, Ace. Minimum.

Posted by: fluffoneidas at October 26, 2012 04:58 PM (z9HTb)

7 Ace - can you push the GOTV efforts and ORCA or do we just want to snark our way through this?

Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 04:58 PM (cgxNI)

8 I've driven across Ohio countless times over the last ten years, and they don't seem like imbeciles. I can't understand why they lean blue.

And I pray we can overcome that.

Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 04:59 PM (znT2j)

9 Whew! I was wondering when we were going to get to talk about polls in this joint.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 04:59 PM (eMjRH)

10 Those petty motherfuckers from TFT's campaign put out on the official tumblr a graphic of Romney wearing a dunce hat made out of a map.


I am so fucking sick of this election being run by people who think that this is an OTP fandom war.

I'd vote for RR just to have fucking grownups back in charge.

(OTP = One True Pairing)

Posted by: alexthegreg at October 26, 2012 04:59 PM (VtjlW)

11 Its lilke Ohio is trying to out do Pennsylvania as to who has the dumbest voters. I still think Penn has the edge. TFG all but called them stupid racists as did Murtha and they still voted them in by a good margin.

Posted by: JollyRoger at October 26, 2012 04:59 PM (t06LC)

12 Kensington - one word: Union Label

Posted by: Joey Biden at October 26, 2012 05:00 PM (cgxNI)

13 I intend to be hitting Ace very hard on November 7th.

You can lead a horse to water...

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 05:00 PM (dX4hn)

14
Neil Cavuto just said:

"I could call the president a big fat Liar...but that would be a lie. The president is not fat."

Heh.

Posted by: wheatie at October 26, 2012 05:00 PM (ipkPX)

15 Time will tell. If the polls keep swinging Rmoneys way the closer to election day you know the pollsters were bullshitting... trying to stop the cascade

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 26, 2012 05:00 PM (nTgAI)

16 Crank's a lawyer. So I distrust his argument:-)

Posted by: marcus at October 26, 2012 05:00 PM (NZyfJ)

17 Fox reporting that Harry Reid has been hospitalized after a car accident in Vegas.

Posted by: Tami at October 26, 2012 05:01 PM (X6akg)

18 Geesh Ace, you need to read THIS:

http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/

CNN has learned the trick. The give us a reasonable party split but slip in a fake lead with indies. Romney is winning indies by 15 to 30 point EVERYWHERE. There is no way Obama wins them in OH.

The REASON OH polling is close is that you get a choice with polls. Either a wild Dem oversample and Romney killing with indies or a fair sample and Obama winning indies. The truth is the OH electorate will be R +3 AND he is killing with indies.

Do not concern yourself. Romney has this in a walk.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 05:01 PM (hlUJY)

19 Cut out the Eeyore shit dude, holy crap.

Posted by: Highsmith at October 26, 2012 05:01 PM (uwaMU)

20 It's close. The country is fairly split between the two parties and indies So be a crawl over broken glass voter, especially if you live in Ohio.

Posted by: Beagle at October 26, 2012 05:01 PM (sOtz/)

21 BREAKING
BREAKING
BREAKING
BREAKING

HARRY REID INOLVED IN CAR ACCIDENT

TAKEN TO HOSPITAL

NO WORD ON THE CONDITION OF
THE THREE YOUNG BOYS IN HIS TRUNK



Posted by: El Presidente Barack Hugo Chavez Obama the Light Bringer and giver of Unicorn Farts & Phones at October 26, 2012 05:02 PM (ovpNn)

22 Why does everyone keep obsessing over Ohio? You know damn well the Demos are pulling out all the stops to cheat their way to a victory there. And if they somehow come up short on the votes on election night, they'll simply litigate the thing till the cows come home.

So why play their game? If Romney takes MI instead, game over. Or Wisconsin plus any other state: game over. Both MI and WI are winnable, and the Demos do NOT have the same vote-stealing posse in place in those states. So I'd like to see intense efforts directed there and at this point, just let the chips fall where they may in Ohio.

Posted by: bobs country buffet at October 26, 2012 05:02 PM (V2lin)

23 ....ya 'n blog stories are reporting that 40% of voters have voted early, most of them for Obama.

So we're gonna get a hundert and forty percent turn out this election? Mostly for Obama?

Posted by: Skandia Recluse at October 26, 2012 05:02 PM (ZKLtz)

24 abc radio news reporting harry reid involved in a multi car accident.

Posted by: What do you do all day if you don't watch tv, anne? at October 26, 2012 05:02 PM (oZfic)

25 sock be gone.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 05:02 PM (ovpNn)

26
Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 04:58 PM (cgxNI)

What does ORCA stand for?

Posted by: wheatie at October 26, 2012 05:02 PM (ipkPX)

27
What I'd like is either an RCP average of Romney +4-5%, nationally, or a few
polls with Romney ahead in Ohio.

--------

Well I'd like Romney to be ahead in every state by 12 points, but what does that have to do with anything?

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:03 PM (pnHKr)

28 It's like I just wandered into an Allahpundit post

Posted by: Highsmith at October 26, 2012 05:03 PM (uwaMU)

29 OT Harry Reid in Vegas car wreck and at hospital

Posted by: giftogab at October 26, 2012 05:03 PM (A+q3l)

30

My heart stopped for a second reading this:

http://nation.foxnews.com/polls/2012/10/26/gallup-releases-bombshell-survey

Gallup Releases Bombshell Survey ...

In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.

If these numbers are within even a few points of what this survey suggests, then Romney will win decisively and the GOP will pick up the Senate. We are likely standing on the edge of another GOP wave election.

Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 05:03 PM (LpQbZ)

31 >>>Geesh Ace, you need to read THIS:

>>>http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/

What is that about? I've never heard of that.

(PS, that's the whole second half of the post.)

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:03 PM (LCRYB)

32 Consider this: If Ohio is shown to even look like it's THINKING about flipping, that basically decides the election right here and now.

No pollster, no matter how unbiased they are, wants the election to be definitively decided right now. Then most people wouldn't pay them any attention. And right now, this is there BIGGEST draw they get to have in 4 years.

Romney cannot be ahead 3-5 points nationally and be even close to losing the EC vote. He can't be winning independents anywhere near what he is and be close to losing this thing.

So... yeah.

Posted by: TLGM at October 26, 2012 05:04 PM (appbn)

33 6 300 EV, Ace. Minimum.

310 EC votes.

Posted by: rickb223 at October 26, 2012 05:05 PM (GFM2b)

34 Bottom line, is Ace will NOT get any of his 3 wishes. Either through malfeasance or incompetence none of the polls nationally, in Ohio, or Wisconsin is going to show enough of a lead to make him happy.

We will have to suffer 11 more days of angst and worry until Romney wins Ohio and the nation by 5%.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 05:05 PM (dX4hn)

35 you believe CNN ???? Seriously?


the bullsh*t with independents gives them away.

Posted by: Larry from Laramie at October 26, 2012 05:05 PM (Dll6b)

36 You'd feel a hell of a lot better if you would look at the early votes. Votes > Polls.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2012 05:05 PM (TMB3S)

37 Ace has updated his model to a 82.44869% chance of Obama winning.

Posted by: Highsmith at October 26, 2012 05:05 PM (uwaMU)

38

The Tarantula is the most clear minded prognosticator on television. She also has great legs.

Posted by: Doctor Fish at October 26, 2012 05:05 PM (lDWQr)

39 These pollsters need to start getting religion with their samples by Tuesday. Expect to see massive shifts to Romney by then.

My bet is Rasmussen will go +5 Romney nationally tomorrow and Gallup may go +6. Rasmussen used a Dem +6 (WTF?) sample to have Romney up just 3 today. We will be looking at D +0 to R +3 samples from serious pollsters across the board by election day.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 05:05 PM (hlUJY)

40 Fox reporting that Harry Reid has been hospitalized after a car accident in Vegas.

Somebody forgot to tell him that a car can be prone to fishtailing if the trunk is too heavily laden with pre-signed ballots.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (SY2Kh)

41 I still think a lot of the Ohio polls are simple bias. What happens if there are polls showing Romney up 2 in Ohio? Game over, man. Game over.

They can show Romney winning the popular vote, just as long as he stands a chance in Ohio and nobody will ever question their accuracy because the national poll will be fine.

Look for about half of the pollsters to go to a realistic D/R/I split starting at the beginning of the week. All of a sudden, Ohio will "break" for Romney. Others will wait until the end of the week, hoping to pin the shift on the (inevitably) bad Nov. 2 employment numbers.

Did you know that, for the national poll, Ras suddenly changed to a D+6 model? Why? My guess is that he didn't want to stick his neck out. He'll probably adjust that back to his (still too high) D+3 by Monday but with a gradual change.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (T0NGe)

42

Need to take out Trumpka and the AFL-CIO ground game.

Meaning, we need boots on the ground -- steam rolling them.

more at breitbart: TRUMKA BOASTS OF AFL-CIO GROUND GAME IN OHIO, WISCONSIN, NEVADA

Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (LpQbZ)

43 "But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair"

NOT while the rope is still in place.

Posted by: Max Power at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (q177U)

44
It's like I just wandered into an Allahpundit post

Ace is Allahpundit

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (R8hU8)

45 I think some of you don't understand what "news" is.

News is new information.

You are talking about unchanging conclusions. Your *unchanging conclusion* is that Romney wins Ohio.

That's fine.

As a news blog, though, I cannot simply put up the same Unchanging Conclusion Post -- ROMNEY WILL WIN OHIO, BANK ON IT!!! -- every single day.

This is just silly. Some of you, LITERALLY, want the news embargoed. You want the full cocoon, not the three-quarters cocoon a partisan advocacy blog already is.

I will continue to occasionally report actual new information, if you don't mind.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (LCRYB)

46 Jesus. Ohio will vote Romney. I am in Ohio and there is no way Obama wins. Enough with this Eeyore shit.

Posted by: Witchfinder at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (pLTLS)

47 Either CNN is playing reindeer games with the independents--with the whole poll sampling--or they're simply lying to boost ratings and give their fanboys a boost


out-LIAR

Posted by: Larry from Laramie at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (Dll6b)

48 The trouble is, the current RCP average has Romney leading by 0.9%.

The RCP average? That's the equivalent of of mixing Fillet Mignon and dog sh*t and claiming it tastes better thanks to the wider spread of flavor.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (eMjRH)

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (eMjRH)

50
I'm not sure why the Romney campaign decided to name their GOTV effort as Project ORCA but they did.

Click on the right hand link on the top of Ace's homepage and help.

Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (cgxNI)

51 The RCP Average:

If you average shit you get shit.

The RCP Average has a history of accuracy in their FINAL NUMBERS, not their numbers 2 weeks out. In 2008 PEW had Obama up 14 a week out and up only 6 day before.

RCP Average right now is useless.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (hlUJY)

52 34

I think people'd be good with something like a 1-2 point lead for Romney in one poll honestly. we haven't seen that yet

Posted by: JDP at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (60GaT)

53 Even I'm tired of this shit.

Posted by: Eeyore at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (GdalM)

54 in Ohio i mean

Posted by: JDP at October 26, 2012 05:08 PM (60GaT)

55 I mind you 'reporting' bullsh*t CNN polls that have obvious problems


'information', my ass

Posted by: Larry from Laramie at October 26, 2012 05:08 PM (Dll6b)

56 >>>the bullsh*t with independents gives them away.

amazing. Simply astonishing.

Gee, I wish I'd included something like that in my post.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:08 PM (LCRYB)

57 Highsmith: "It's like I just wandered into an Allahpundit post"

Heh.

Try not to trip over the Passionfruit Valu-Rite.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 26, 2012 05:08 PM (eHIJJ)

58 >>>I mind you 'reporting' bullsh*t CNN polls that have obvious problems


>>>'information', my ass

Amazing.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:08 PM (LCRYB)

59 Iowahawk on polls:

If you believe the 3%-9% of the population who will talk to pollsters
are similar to the 91%-97% who won't, then, well, God bless ya.


Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 26, 2012 05:08 PM (feFL6)

60
Romney has peaked and Obama has plenty of room to move.

-Bob Beckel, The Five

Posted by: Doctor Fish at October 26, 2012 05:09 PM (lDWQr)

61 I mean holy hell dude, even fucking WAPO has Romney winning OH Independents by 15!

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 05:09 PM (hlUJY)

62 thank you ace ! just keep it coming !

Posted by: alec another guy who doesnt like greg at October 26, 2012 05:09 PM (usWYv)

63 As Iowahawk says everyday... These polls are BS.

Start practicing saying it...
President Romney

Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 26, 2012 05:09 PM (sRIFP)

64 http://tinyurl.com/9zxlocy

Posted by: i am mad as hell and i am not going to take it anymore at October 26, 2012 05:09 PM (cgxNI)

65 I sure wish I'd included something in my post expressing the notion that the CNN poll was an outlier....

(Hint: Look at the Great Big Chart.)

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:10 PM (LCRYB)

66 in 2008, Obama's jerkoff workers gave their GOTV efforts the name of some shark


so Romney's people this time found the predator above the food chain for Obama fag-shark. Mind games...

Posted by: Larry from Laramie at October 26, 2012 05:10 PM (Dll6b)

67 If Romney loses Ohio, he needs to pick up something else in addition to Wisconsin. Like New Hapshire, Iowa, or Nevada (which will only happen if Harry Reid's car crash turns out to be a "Morgan Freeman with step-grandson" scenario)

Posted by: wooga at October 26, 2012 05:10 PM (vjyZP)

68 >>>This is just silly. Some of you, LITERALLY, want the news embargoed.
You want the full cocoon, not the three-quarters cocoon a partisan
advocacy blog already is.


I'd like the cold hard truth BTW. Well maybe not cold and hard, you could heat it up just a bit and soften it with a mallet. But lukewarm and hard to chew is OK. I'd rather know and be anxious about it rather than saying "WTH! we had this in the bag!" on election night.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:10 PM (eMjRH)

69 (GdalM)

Whose leg do you have to hump to get a sweet hash like that?

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 26, 2012 05:10 PM (POGCP)

70 Even if you're certain Romney wins Ohio, I would rather divert more resources to Wisconsin as a backup just in case than to just keep doubling down on Ohio.

I don't think it's smart to just assume that because the national numbers look good, everything is going to fall in line. Campaigns do matter, and as an example, if Romney for whatever crazy reason decided to spend $30 million on his home state of Massachusetts where he was Governor, he could probably get within the margin of error and have numbers close to Scott Brown, even though the state usually goes comfortably Democrat. If a Republican can win Massachusetts with enough focus, it's not exactly a crazy notion that a Democrat could win Ohio despite the popular vote going for the other guy by a few points.

At some point, money is just not going to matter anymore in ohio. but it is going to matter in a state like Wisconsin that has been largely ignored this Presidential cycle.

Posted by: McAdams at October 26, 2012 05:10 PM (2FqGG)

71 59

I get it's snark (Podhoretz also seems to like pushing the "polls suck" deal lately) and I get that some might have methodology problems but there's always some that're in the ballpark

Posted by: JDP at October 26, 2012 05:10 PM (60GaT)

72 fuck you

Posted by: Larry from Laramie at October 26, 2012 05:11 PM (Dll6b)

73 Reid in stable condition....still in the hospital.

Posted by: Tami at October 26, 2012 05:11 PM (X6akg)

74 >>I think some of you don't understand what "news" is.

Polls aren't news. They are educated guesses.

Early votes are just that, votes.

As I have been saying for weeks, Romney's strategy has always been to hold down Obama's percentage in the big Dem counties like Cuyahoga and increase the take in Rep counties with low propensity voters. He's doing it.

It doesn't matter what the polls are saying. Many of them are highly skewed. The CNN poll that was just released would have you believe that 2/5 of Ohio voters have already voted. Yet the Ohio SOS office says the number is about 1/5. The CNN poll is not possible.

Obama has a losing margin in early votes in Ohio right now. If he doesn't increase the margin substantially in the next week he is going to lose.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2012 05:11 PM (TMB3S)

75 I will continue to occasionally report actual new information, if you don't mind.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (LCRYB)


exactly

otherwise ace becomes peggy noonan

Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 05:11 PM (LpQbZ)

76
Widespread contempt for Barry in Ohio. People are sick of him. Benghazi is only adding to their disgust. R/R will roll over Soetoro.

Posted by: Ohio Native at October 26, 2012 05:11 PM (WolTZ)

77 Ace,

Courage.

Posted by: Dan Rather at October 26, 2012 05:12 PM (2b4yb)

78 eeyoreawn

we got this

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 05:12 PM (ovpNn)

79 1) There isn't going to be ANY +D skew in Ohio or anywhere else.
2) There is no #2.

Romney isn't losing Ohio.

Posted by: HenryVlosesAgincourt at October 26, 2012 05:12 PM (jn5Ou)

80 >>>fuck you

reading is fundamental

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:12 PM (LCRYB)

81 I believe this is a close race - at least in the polls. I believe turnout will be so high on the GOP side that all the pollsters will be amazed as to how wrong their polls were.

That said, the reason the polls are so close (IMHO) is because there are so many people now dependent on government support and they are afraid of losing it.

This election is our LAST chance to turn things around. If we lose, America will be gone forever.

Posted by: Not and Artist at October 26, 2012 05:13 PM (uRumV)

82 Don't you have a bullshit detector, Ace?

This state went for Bush in 2004. Do you *really* think that all the independents there are going to swing to Obama in 2012 after his massive losses among them since 2009, over inoffensive and competent Romney? That a double-digit lead among Independents everywhere else in the country just magically and coincidentally not just vanishes, but reverses in Ohio, the focus of Democratic efforts?

Come on.

Posted by: dawnfire at October 26, 2012 05:13 PM (eEeH7)

83
Romney wants to give them millionaires a $500,000,000,000,000.00 tax cut.

Math is hard.

Posted by: Joey Biden at October 26, 2012 05:13 PM (cgxNI)

84 One interesting point of note, regardless of D/R/I split...
...read that 40% of this total sample self-reported as unemployed.
THAT is an amazing stat, and would surely skew the numbers in some fashion.

Posted by: Steve at October 26, 2012 05:13 PM (+Qawf)

85 I did some simple math using 2008 turnout and the new CNN numbers

O Early Votes: 696,790
O Elect Votes: 2,020,822
O Total Votes: 2,717,612 (49.3%)

R Early Votes: 448,780
R Elect Votes: 2,342,316
R Total Votes: 2,791,096 (50.7%)

Posted by: Colonel Pooteh at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (oiJfU)

86 "otherwise ace becomes peggy noonan"

Posted by: 11 days at October 26, 2012 05:11 PM (LpQbZ)

Nah...Ace has nicer tits.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (2b4yb)

87 ace is here

Posted by: Max Power at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (q177U)

88 "You are talking about unchanging conclusions. Your *unchanging conclusion* is that Romney wins Ohio.



That's fine.



As a news blog, though, I cannot simply put up the same Unchanging
Conclusion Post -- ROMNEY WILL WIN OHIO, BANK ON IT!!! -- every single
day.



This is just silly. Some of you, LITERALLY, want the news
embargoed. You want the full cocoon, not the three-quarters cocoon a
partisan advocacy blog already is.



I will continue to occasionally report actual new information, if you don't mind."

The only problem Ace is that you are refusing to report other facts, like 7 of the last 9 Ohio polls over sampled Democrats. Ranging from D+6 to D+11. Your news is one direction only. It's always "OMG, why is Ohio such a little bitch".

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (dX4hn)

89 Dem EV turnout is down 200K from 2008 with a week to go. There are 300K dem votes from 2008 in Ohio coal country. I wouldn't put too much trust into this CNN poll.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (TLc8G)

90
You ain't gonna see Romney ahead if we can help it. We'll weight those suckas D+101 if we have to.

Posted by: MFM at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (ggRof)

91 is it true nearly half the CNN poll was made up of early voters (which lean Dem) when the true number of early voters is like 20%???

There's your answer as to why Obamas up brith Indies and up overall by 4.

Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (RstsB)

92
The trouble is, the current RCP average has Romney leading by 0.9%.

The
RCP average? That's the equivalent of of mixing Fillet Mignon and dog
sh*t and claiming it tastes better thanks to the wider spread of flavor.


Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:07 PM (eMjRH)

Yeah, I kinda agree with that. I think a better average would be to take the top 3-4 most reputable polls and average them. I mean, who the fuck is JZAnalytics?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (UypUQ)

93 Also, if there was a pollster that wanted to release an unskewed poll just out of sheer integrity, it might not wish to do so because it wouldn't jive with the rest and it would be mocked for being so off the mark.

That's my take anyways...

Posted by: TLGM at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (appbn)

94 >>>his state went for Bush in 2004. Do you *really* think that all the independents there are going to swing to Obama in 2012 after his massive losses among them since 2009, over inoffensive and competent Romney? That a double-digit lead among Independents everywhere else in the country just magically and coincidentally not just vanishes, but reverses in Ohio, the focus of Democratic efforts?

My problem is yeah, for like 10 years, I've thought Ohio was trending more and more Democratic.

Ohio used to be a fairly strong Republican-leaning state. Not any longer.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (LCRYB)

95 Fuck Ohio, let's talk Oregon!

Posted by: Jean at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (LnQr8)

96 This oiho thing has we worried too.

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna not greg/gerg at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (9+ccr)

97 Every important election here in the last two years has gone for the conservatives. I have hope. When push comes to shove, we've learned to shove back.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (P6QsQ)

98 What is this? A "pile on Ace" thread?

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (n5+zr)

99 I don't know anyone who voted or is voting for Romney, so Obama looks good here in Ohio.

Posted by: CNN at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (eHIJJ)

100 My bet is Rasmussen will go +5 Romney nationally tomorrow and Gallup may
go +6. Rasmussen used a Dem +6 (WTF?) sample to have Romney up just 3
today. We will be looking at D +0 to R +3 samples from serious pollsters
across the board by election day.


I think R+3 is wishful thinking but D+2 nationally (just add D+2 to whatever the 2012 turnout was in a given state) is perfectly rational and on the "conservative" side. If you have that kind of breakdown on all of the polls, Romney wins in a walk and almost all the Senate races are over.

And that's why most pollsters don't want to have anything to do with such numbers.

Also, I think people really overestimate the "reputation" bit. Do you think that any of these polling companies won't get hired in 2 years?


Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (T0NGe)

101 Kind of fun to see him get in the weeds with the common folks down here on the thread.


OT but I just had a deliciously spicy burrito for lunch.

Posted by: Max Power at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (q177U)

102 BREAKING: accused pedarast Harry Reid has been taken to the hospital after causing or being involved in a 6 car pileup. His condition is said to be stable, so we can only hope he survives.

Link in my sig

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (I2LwF)

103 3 Ohio. What is wrong with this state?
Posted by: Sheldon Cooper at October 26, 2012 04:57 PM (mcWHD)

Nothing. Why do you ask?

Posted by: California at October 26, 2012 05:16 PM (wAQA5)

104 the CNN poll also has Obama up 21 among early voters, which is almost impossible given that the Dems only have a 6 point advantage in ballot requests/absentee voting.

Posted by: tofer732 at October 26, 2012 05:16 PM (2zM0P)

105 Ohio went pretty easy for Bush in 00 and 04. yeah they drank the KoolAid in 08, likea few other states.....why is it so "close" now?

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 05:16 PM (0CiTm)

106 New Jersey was once, long ago, Republican leaning.

States do change their lean over time. And Ohio has been bothering me for 10 years.

Bush did carry Ohio in 2004... you know by how much? 2.4%.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:16 PM (LCRYB)

107 Harry Reid has been taken to the hospital after causing or being involved in a 6 car pileup.


Oh, thank gawd. At first I thought it was Amy Reid.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 26, 2012 05:17 PM (feFL6)

108 I see it this way: if Romney wins the popular 51-48 (very realistic IMO), we don't need to worry about Ohio. The electoral will take care of itself.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (UA8DK)

109 Regarding the RCP national average. If you look at just the last week, it's Romney +1.8. If you look at the same time period, but throw out the two outlier results, it's Romney +2.0. Obama's numbers are being artificially inflated by two older polls that will soon drop out of the average.

For Ohio, the problem appears to be bad sampling compounded by an outlier poll (CNN).

Posted by: TH at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (AprKJ)

110 Hairy had a read ender?

Posted by: LC LaWedgie at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (0It32)

111 The thing is, are there more young Obama-worshipping libs in Ohio these days, or is it more from older Democrats who think Romney's a mean ol' rich dude but don't share Obama's cultural liberalism?

cuz if it's the latter that's kinda lame.

Posted by: JDP at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (60GaT)

112 With Mittens at +5 nationally, if for some reason Ohio goes for Obama, it will be okay. At +5 GOP nationally, we probably pick up PA, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and maybe Oregon.


Look for the Ohio polls to show Mitt tied on Monday through Thursday of next week. Next Friday will show him opening up a 1 point lead there. It will be like what happened in Virginia, NC, NH, CO, and the other "swing states". When Mitt decides to make the sale, the people buy.

Posted by: MrCaniac at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (Zd/NW)

113 I had a thought, a comforting thought, .... that Team O. is going to be screwed when they find out all this effort at early voters will just have shifted already banked, election day votes, to the early vote total. They may end up significantly outnumbered at the polls on Nov. 6th.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (UypUQ)

114 Honestly Ace, you know me as one of our resident Eeyores...and I have to tell you: not only are we not losing Ohio, we're going to win Wisconsin as well. And from people who are on the ground and inside the Romney campaign, I can tell you there are two states out there that are potentially set to shock the shit out of liberals and the MSM come November 6th. In a good way -- for us.

Me? I'm spending the day tomorrow in Newport News, VA, knocking on doors and making phone calls (and that's a bitch of a commute for a guy who lives in the MD suburbs). I highly recommend that everyone else go and do the same thing.

But I will say this: Romney's internals right now? I have it on reasonably good authority that they are actually far better in states like OH, VA, FL, and certain other mystery states that I shall not mention than everyone out here realizes. There is a bit of "well this can't QUITE be correct, can it?" attitude among people, but the numbers are returning consistently and in the same direction.

Let me put it this way: IA, NH, WI: toss a coin, these could go either way. OH? Mitt will win, and the call will be made on election night, not after five recounts or any sort of thing like that. It most certainly didn't look that way as recently as a month ago. But it does now. My final call? 52-48 Romney over Obama.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.

Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (/COnL)

115
Every important election here in the last two years has gone for the conservatives. I have hope. When push comes to shove, we've learned to shove back.

--------

????You mean except the one where we decided to shit all over Kasich's union reform bill?

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (pnHKr)

116 The polls are skewed dem, because if they showed the race accurately, everyone would pronounce Romney president-elect, and the ads and polling views would cease.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 26, 2012 05:19 PM (TLc8G)

117 If the entire state of Ohio got sucked up by an alien spaceship tomorrow, would that be a bad thing? Me no thinky so. It beats the hell out of the rest of us having to sit around waiting to see if the ratio of intelligent life forms to half-brained idiots in that state is in our favor on November 6th.

Posted by: Natasha at October 26, 2012 05:19 PM (jU5uf)

118
What's 2.4%...I remember a couple million votes, and the race over by midnight. I guess it wasn't as easy as I thought.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 05:19 PM (0CiTm)

119 Amy Reid


Doesn't the AoS StyleGuide demand that if a pronstars is referred to by name, a pic must be included?


If it doesn't, it should.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 05:19 PM (n5+zr)

120 AmishDude, the reputation is for their commercial contracts, they fumble the big one, work dries up

Posted by: Jean at October 26, 2012 05:19 PM (LnQr8)

121 clean up in aisle 4

Posted by: ace's diaper at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (1hLXe)

122 Ace,

I think that many of us are losing sight of the fact that Ohio does not drive the country....the country drives Ohio.

Look at the national data, in which Romney is trending better and better in almost every state, and then try to rationalize why Ohio would be going in the opposite direction.

You can't.

I don't want to hear Pollyanna-ish blather like the Democrats are spouting, but let's be proud of our accomplishments vis-a-vis GOTV, and changing the narrative.

And, last thing. Romney wants to win. He really, really wants to win, and he is not fucking around (unlike McCain). And if you and I had gotten what we wanted (Perry), I'm not sure that we would be in this position this close to the election. Romney has done a fine job, and is probably going to be our next president.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (2b4yb)

123 "Start practicing saying it...

President Romney"

==========

President RommmmmmmNOOOOOOOO!!1!!

Noooooooooooo!!!1!!!!

Aieeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!1!!!1

bugs bugs zzzzzzpltat

Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (znT2j)

124 Doesn't the AoS StyleGuide demand that if a pronstars is referred to by name, a pic must be included?


---

Wait, what? Women in pron have names?

Since when?

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (aHR5E)

125 I've got tickets for the Monday Romney rally. Looking foward to it

Posted by: WisRich at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (hdpay)

126 Harry Reid rear ended a bus full of school boys

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (1Jaio)

127 "Yeah, I kinda agree with that. I think a better average would be to take
the top 3-4 most reputable polls and average them. I mean, who the fuck
is JZAnalytics?"

Zogby.

Or you could just look at my site, since do all that work for you.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (dX4hn)

128 BREAKING: accused pedarast Harry Reid has been taken to the hospital
after causing or being involved in a 6 car pileup. His condition is
said to be stable, so we can only hope he survives.



Link in my sig


I'll say a prayer.

For the other cars.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 05:20 PM (SY2Kh)

129 >>>>It beats the hell out of the rest of us having to sit around waiting to
see if the ratio of intelligent life forms to half-brained idiots in
that state is in our favor on November 6th.

Better California went. That's 50+ EC votes.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:21 PM (eMjRH)

130 As Iowahawk says everyday... These polls are BS. Start practicing saying it... President Romney

President Romney

President Romney

President Romney

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:21 PM (fsLdt)

131
Try typing Barack Obama with your eyes closed.



Seriously – try it.

These were my first tries-

baeacj Ibana

Baeack Ivana

barack inava

Then I got the hang of it -

Frickin Knobnibbler

Ne’er do well

Punk Faggot

Posted by: Funneh from IOTW at October 26, 2012 05:21 PM (cTjRR)

132

"And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, a rafter.

But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair some with this analysis."


Cut. Jib. Newsletter?

Posted by: Michel Hutchence at October 26, 2012 05:21 PM (Zd/NW)

133 "otherwise ace becomes peggy noonan"
===========

Exactly how much do you think Ace can drink?

Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 05:21 PM (znT2j)

134

"And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, a rafter.

But Baseball Crank talks me back off the chair some with this analysis."


How do I subscribe to your "premium service"?

Posted by: David Carradine at October 26, 2012 05:22 PM (Zd/NW)

135 Do we trust polls now because it's closer to election? Because a month ago there were a zillion reasons not tobelieve the polls.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 05:22 PM (0CiTm)

136 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 26, 2012 05:22 PM (Ts9tU)

137 Fucking Oregon. Lost all my cool hippies and retirees to her long ago.

Posted by: California at October 26, 2012 05:22 PM (wAQA5)

138 ....

Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (/COnL)

My guess, Minnesota and New Mexico.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 05:23 PM (UypUQ)

139 Ohio is on fuckin' notice.

Posted by: Mr. Paul Anka at October 26, 2012 05:23 PM (Ks4nX)

140 RCP is an average of a bunch of snapshots. What do you get if you superimpose a number of different snapshots from different days? A murky blur.

RCP average is actually worse than any of its constituent polls. It multiplies the bias, rather than smoothing it out.

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2012 05:23 PM (I2LwF)

141 And it's driving me crazy. Only three friends are keeping me sane at this point: A chair, a rope, & a rafter.


_____________________

Unfortunately....you are kind of in a leadership position whether you like that or not.

So--you really have to help people not go ^ there on Election night.

Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 05:23 PM (r2PLg)

142 52-48 Romney over Obama.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.


You're wrong because there will (as usual) be at least 1% "other".

So there.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 05:24 PM (SY2Kh)

143 Frickin Knobnibbler Ne’er do well Punk Faggot

I think you opened your eyes a little.

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:24 PM (fsLdt)

144 As Iowahawk says everyday... These polls are BS. Start practicing saying it... President Romney

President-Elect Romney

President-Elect Romney

President-Elect Romney

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:24 PM (ck76k)

145 When did this whole Everyday Polling thing start? It wasn't like this back when I was a kid, I don't think. The news wasn't 95% polling back in 1980.

Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 05:24 PM (znT2j)

146 What has changed in WI since the Walker vote? Nothing that I can see. This is more statistical manipulation to keep the hype going. The narrative is becoming tedious.

Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 05:24 PM (emJ/1)

147 Here's something that matters if people are feeling like they need a boost. I expect the ground game efforts to be much cleaner for us. Could get long winded about it, but can be summarized in 2 simple sentences. Our people are more motivated. Secondly, the people that flip are all coming from their side to ours.

We might only have to take extra effort on 25% of our likely's vs. about 35% of theirs. And there is going to be a not insignificant amount of times that they will look at who voted for them in 2008, and make the pitch to turn them out, only to find the choice isn't between voting for Obama or not turning up at all, but voting for Romney and not turning out. Now that's a dicier proposition, and they have to make those calls a lot more than we will.

We should be getting more juice for our dollars with a turnout operation.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 26, 2012 05:24 PM (BfZ1r)

148 Where's Dave in Florida?


(in Florida, I guess)

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:25 PM (+tqYo)

149 133 "otherwise ace becomes peggy noonan"
===========

Exactly how much do you think Ace can drink?
Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 05:21 PM (znT2j)

______________

He could reach Althouse levels.

Code Red.

Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 05:25 PM (r2PLg)

150 What seems to be a common occurrence in these political polling firms is they have been influenced. So Garbage in Garbage out...They claim methodology is good when you look at internals to seem credible..But to believe that Ohio is voting completely different than the rest of the country with independants doesn't pass the smell test...

PPP for example I feel has been stood up simply to skew RCP...and they have been notorious for throwing off averages in the past...Notably Scott Browns election...1 day before the election they came out with Scott Brown losing by ~3%...Every other poll said different...Who was correct?

PPP lost credibility as a polling outfit so they changed the rules...Scott Walker Recall election...PPP had Walker losing up until the week or 2 of the election then miraculously changed methodology and started reporting along the lines of most polling firms...IE Walker winning...

Agenda driven polls (CNN) = Garbage in and Garbage out

Which BTW who is the firm doing the polling for CNN????

Posted by: Chicken ala King at October 26, 2012 05:25 PM (VvvBE)

151 After the accident I soiled mymagic Depends. No leakage! Tight as a drum around my wrinkled bum!

Posted by: Harry Reid at October 26, 2012 05:25 PM (WolTZ)

152 This one is over. Focus on OH all you want, it's over. PS--the October surprise is here, all. I'm sure Hillary will resign in the next 48 hours.

Posted by: Interested Party at October 26, 2012 05:25 PM (RE+1w)

153 "Bush did carry Ohio in 2004... you know by how much? 2.4%."

Kerry won Independents in Ohio in 2004.

Is Obama winning them this year?

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 05:26 PM (dX4hn)

154 >>>Do we trust polls now because it's closer to election?

Yes. They have to norm prior to the election. Or if you prefer, they have to tell the truth by election day otherwise they will be forever remembered as being a BS poll, so in the days prior to the election they drop the reindeer games and start transitioning to the truth, slowly, so that no one can say "look here, they were just playing the numbers for political gain"

Basically they were trying to buy time for President Present Too Busy Golfing, to make their polls truth. Now time is up and they have to get with reality.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:26 PM (eMjRH)

155 "Kensington - one word: Union Label"

Second that.
I have relatives in Michigan who are some of the most conservative people that I know but would eat a bullet before voting for anybody who wasn't a democrat.
It comes from a lifetime of union membership.

Posted by: RayJ at October 26, 2012 05:26 PM (pI/IV)

156
Man I wish I could be as sure as you guys. I'd sleep a hell of a lot better and drink a lot less. Well maybe not the last part.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (0CiTm)

157 >>>What has changed in WI since the Walker vote? Nothing that I can see. This is more statistical manipulation to keep the hype going. The narrative is becoming tedious.

this is why it's driving me crazy we're not MORE in Wisconsin. Ohio is being a little bitch, and Wisconsin is saying "Hello, Sailor."

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (LCRYB)

158 Forget the sophisticatd analysis and let me know if I have my binders/blinders on too hard.

2008 - Horrible GOP candidate and flashy first, historic, faint-enducing, non-Bush 'black' DEM candidate. People come out of the woodwork to vote (and crossover).

2010 - Mid-term voters literally crush Dems. Historic shift in seats up and down the ballot.

2009-2012 - Most crushing economy since Carter/Great Depression.

2012 - Romney not evil, stupid, scary, racist, gaffetastic or Bush/Cheney. Obama not a flashy first, historic, faint-enducing, non-Bush 'black' god any more.

How can Americans relect Obama considering just these points? Am I naive or have I misread my fellow Americans? Are enough of them that stupid/evil/misguided?

Seriously, I just can't conceive of him getting enough popular/EC votes to be reelected. So confuzed....

Posted by: Tonic Dog at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (X/+QT)

159 You mean except the one where we decided to shit all over Kasich's union reform bill?

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (pnHKr)

------
Yeah that was not good, but I was actually speaking specifically of Wisconsin elections.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (P6QsQ)

160
Your incessant hand wringing of Ohio is making me incessantly hand wring.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (PHb2k)

161 I do not fucking understand Wisconsin. Who are these morons who supported Scott Walker AND support Barack Spizzledick Obama? Their existence doesn't even seem possible.

Posted by: Abe Froman at October 26, 2012 05:28 PM (E55AK)

162 States do change their lean over time. And Ohio has been bothering me for 10 years.

Early voting.

They put these satellite locations at colleges and kids who would either be apathetic or actually take the thing seriously just stop by and vote.

And there's the huge risk of fraud or the name "accidentally" not getting checked off, etc.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 05:28 PM (T0NGe)

163 155 "Kensington - one word: Union Label"

Second that.
I have relatives in Michigan who are some of the most conservative people that I know but would eat a bullet before voting for anybody who wasn't a democrat.
It comes from a lifetime of union membership.

Posted by: RayJ at October 26, 2012 05:26 PM (pI/IV)


What good is being in a union when you have no damned employer?!

Sheesh.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:28 PM (+tqYo)

164 >>>PS--the October surprise is here, all. I'm sure Hillary will resign in the next 48 hours.

That ain't an "October Surprise" those are planned and this definitely isn't

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (eMjRH)

165 Tapper being an ass on twitter. Defending MSM cover ups.

Posted by: Temper Tantrum at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (AWmfW)

166
Those stories that I arranged the accident in order to "visit" the childrens' ward are absolutely false. I was alreadyon my way here to "visit" the childrens' ward when the accident occurred.

Posted by: Harry Reid, convicted child molester at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (ggRof)

167
That's wrong.

Rasmussen has Obama leading with Independents in his new Florida poll.

BTW, ARG and Purple Poll also have Obama winning Ohio.

Ohio does not like Mitt Romney.

--------

I love when Greg cites Rasmussen to make a point while generally hating Rasmussen as a right-wing polling firm everytime they go against him.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (pnHKr)

168 Which BTW who is the firm doing the polling for CNN????

Opinion Research

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (ck76k)

169 "otherwise ace becomes peggy noonan"

Yes, and an Ewok with 12 mm pearls, a cashmere twin-set, and blond hair artfully brushing its cheek is just an icky thought....

Posted by: Sherry McEvil, Wily Wrepublican Wench at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (kXoT0)

170 152 I'm sure Hillary will resign in the next 48 hours.

To spend more time with her Thighmaster.

Posted by: wth at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (wAQA5)

171 Once again you are relying on evidence garnered from 800 people or so that allegedly speak for millions.In addition ,people are not a static data point. They lie.

Posted by: polynikes at October 26, 2012 05:30 PM (m2CN7)

172 OT: So I read on Drudge that Reid convoy has been in a multi-car accident. Im sure the MSM will be all over this. Oh noes! He's been rushed to a Vegas hospital! Benghazi not so much.
Plus that picture of Romney in a dunce cap from the O campaign. What's with that?

Posted by: Cheri at October 26, 2012 05:30 PM (G+Wff)

173 Wisconsin will vody-o, but they won't vody-o-doh.

Posted by: Shirley Feeney at October 26, 2012 05:30 PM (Ks4nX)

174 Another thing to look at...Obama is out on the Attack everyday

If he were not losing he would be playing prevent defense...

Obama said it best...Basically when your losing; change the subject to small petty things...

Romney is in a position of strength...

Obama is losing ground every day except for a few outlier polls

Posted by: Chicken ala King at October 26, 2012 05:30 PM (VvvBE)

175 114
And from people who are on the ground and inside the Romney
campaign, I can tell you there are two states out there that are
potentially set to shock the shit out of liberals and the MSM come
November 6th. In a good way -- for us.


Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (/COnL)

I like this game! Massachusetts and Washington (please oh please oh please.. I want to bathe in hipster tears on the 7th).

Posted by: not the mama at October 26, 2012 05:30 PM (kzCIn)

176
OT but I just had a deliciously spicy burrito for lunch.


Posted by: Max Power at October 26, 2012 05:15 PM (q177U)

----------
Thanks for warning us, especially since we all have to post downwind of you. :-)

Posted by: Mary in LA at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (9wOfB)

177 I have relatives in Michigan who are some of the most conservative
people that I know but would eat a bullet before voting for anybody who
wasn't a democrat.
It comes from a lifetime of union membership.


Ask them how much their union leaders get paid. Then tell them. And not just the head guy, but all of the other people in the national office.

BTW, do they wonder why their kids/grandkids can't get a job at the old abandoned plant and have to live elsewhere?

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (T0NGe)

178 Ace,

As I said at the end of the comments in the Gallup post:

There is a Narrative to be preserved. The infallability of The Narrative must not be questioned so as to keep Dem voters showing up at the polls to support down-ballot elections to preserve gridlock.

Trust in the ground game. Know that it's our job to get around The Narrative.

Posted by: Kevin In ABQ at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (q1qCt)

179 What has changed in WI since the Walker vote? Nothing that I can see.

----------

The only hiccup in that argument is that there was a certain percentage of voters (about 5% or so) that voted against the idea of a recall itself, and not specifically in support of Walker.

However, that mindset can play to our advantage too. Those voters who weren't particularly partisan but didn't like the idea of a fellow Wisconsin-ite getting unfairly attacked just might break for Ryan (and therefore Romney) for the same reason.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (P6QsQ)

180
Early voting.

They put these satellite locations at colleges and kids who would either be apathetic or actually take the thing seriously just stop by and vote.

And there's the huge risk of fraud or the name "accidentally" not getting checked off, etc.

-----

It's not just that. People have been leaving Ohio in droves over the last 10+ years. In 8 years, it'll be lucky if it's worth 14 EVs. There is a fleeing of the state going on and it feels as if the people leaving are the ones who lean conservative.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (pnHKr)

181 PPP for example I feel has been stood up simply to
skew RCP...and they have been notorious for throwing off averages in the
past...Notably Scott Browns election ...Posted by: Chicken ala King


Err, are you sure PPP is included in the RCP average?

Also, is your . button broken?

Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (DKxu1)

182 New York will go Romney!!!!!




Yeah, I know. I'm just fantasizing.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (+tqYo)

183 this is why it's driving me crazy we're not MORE in Wisconsin. Ohio is being a little bitch, and Wisconsin is saying "Hello, Sailor."
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (LCRYB)

_____________

Problem is Ohio is a bitch with a bigger trust fund...

Almost twice the electoral votes.

Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 05:32 PM (r2PLg)

184 163 155 "Kensington - one word: Union Label"

Second that.
I have relatives in Michigan who are some of the most conservative people that I know but would eat a bullet before voting for anybody who wasn't a democrat.
It comes from a lifetime of union membership.

Posted by: RayJ at October 26, 2012 05:26 PM (pI/IV)


What good is being in a union when you have no damned employer?!

Sheesh.

True very true .....I finally Finally Ended the union brainwashing of my dad .....he voted for Romney and Ryan !!!!

Posted by: grumpy momma bear at October 26, 2012 05:32 PM (+NBAo)

185 USS Diversity: "Do we trust polls now because it's closer to election? Because a month ago there were a zillion reasons not tobelieve the polls."

Theoretically we should, but yeah, we still probably shouldn't. It's a bit of a racket to be manipulated even to the last minute. The best concession you could go with would be the final couple of weeks trends. It's here where likely a higher proportion of the polling businesses want to establish credibility so they get hired for the next project. It's also here where they must override urges to bend the outcomes because business pressures will trump ideological ones.

So, the trend is the thing as is watching the final skew numbers on D/R/I.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 26, 2012 05:32 PM (eHIJJ)

186 Ace, the narrative wasn't made to make you feel comfortable.

It was made to make you despair and feel alone.

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 26, 2012 05:32 PM (QxSug)

187 There was a post about that Ohio poll at Hot Air..they made mention of the fact that Romney is winning Indies in virtually every poll, but CNN's..that makes me wonder.

Posted by: Terrye at October 26, 2012 05:32 PM (H9eRV)

188 Plus that picture of Romney in a dunce cap from the O campaign. What's with that?

Posted by: Cheri at October 26, 2012 05:30 PM (G+Wff)

desperation from President Derp

Posted by: not the mama at October 26, 2012 05:32 PM (kzCIn)

189 shirley feeney, holy shit, that's a reference.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:33 PM (LCRYB)

190 Ace I think it was you that linked the article from the Romney campaign in whereas they explain that the Obama campaign is cannibalizing his base to vote early. Why is this only happening in Ohio? Because its his firewall for the polls. As long as he looks strong in Ohio the pundit left can exclaim that he "can lose all the other swing states and still win the EC with Ohio" He is leading with those that have voted by 12 1.4MM voters, but is losing by 12 those that haven't voted yet 4.4MM.

Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 05:33 PM (kb15i)

191 People....please stop quoting the fucking trolls. C'mon man.

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:33 PM (fsLdt)

192 BTW, ARG and Purple Poll also have Obama winning Ohio.


---

Oh worthless troll, "ahead" does NOT equal "winning." Especially when it's less than the MOE... whoops, forgot you don't know what that means. Much like "partisan breakdown" and "oversampling."

In summation, you're a fuckwit.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 05:33 PM (aHR5E)

193 this is why it's driving me crazy we're not MORE in Wisconsin. Ohio is being a little bitch, and Wisconsin is saying "Hello, Sailor."
Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:27 PM (LCRYB)


----------------------------------------------


I agree RR could give WI a friendly visit, unless their internals are saying that the Walker status quo is holding, and to spend your money elsewhere. BUT we shall see. There's still, what, ten days?

Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 05:33 PM (emJ/1)

194 Chillax about the polls. And the election is just another poll. We won't really know who the president is until after the lawsuits.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 05:33 PM (Hx5uv)

195 Bruce Springsteen is doing a Concert in Pgh. tonight for Bammy If Pa. was "Safe" would they have a Concert for Bammy.

If Pa. isn't safe Oiho is over

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:33 PM (ck76k)

196 I do not fucking understand Wisconsin. Who are these
morons who supported Scott Walker AND support Barack Spizzledick Obama?
Their existence doesn't even seem possible.


Posted by: Abe Froman at October 26, 2012 05:28 PM (E55AK)

----------
This article might help shed some light on that:
http://bit.ly/S1Xpjk

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:34 PM (P6QsQ)

197 Get off the damn chair, Ace. You're standing on Obama, for God's sake!

Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 26, 2012 05:34 PM (wfT/H)

198 165
Tapper being an ass on twitter. Defending MSM cover ups.


Posted by: Temper Tantrum at October 26, 2012 05:29 PM (AWmfW)

You should tweet him telling him just because he stops half way usually, doesnt make him any less complicit than the rest of the MSM which goes all the way down to the obamaballs

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 05:34 PM (ovpNn)

199 Meanwhile, nationally, Gallup has R 51 - 0 45. Yesterday it was 50 - 46.

Don't worry, but get the hell out there in Ohio and Wisconsin and get cracking!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:34 PM (+tqYo)

200 Plus that picture of Romney in a dunce cap from the O campaign. What's with that?

---

Obama's going after the Nickelodeon vote.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (Hx5uv)

201 I agree RR could give WI a friendly visit

------------



Ryan has been in and out of here, and Romney is coming Monday night to a rally at the State Fairgrounds in suburban Milwaukee.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (P6QsQ)

202
Ace...there is no help for you. YOU do not understand OH and need to give it up. CNN simply hides there Dem Plus Sample in the INDEPENDENTS....that is how every poll except TIME (which buy the way did that same poll not have CNN already sponsor) shows Romney up with Independents. Why would TIME do a poll with CNN and then CNN another on its own. CNN knows that everyone is looking at the partisan breakdown...CNN did this in Florida as well. They increase the DEM SAMPLE by INCREASING DEM INDIES and then simply counting them as Independents. Why do you PUBLISH this crap?

You are fixated on OH and polls. THE MSM must show OH this way to keep OBAMA in the game. Why are you so DUMB? God the GOP could show ACE everysingle metric that shows how Obama's Early Numbers are down and ACE will still buy the BS about OH.

Notice how Ras, Angus and Gravis....have the race tied....yet CNN/TIME do not...HMMM I WONDER WHY? The History Professor out of University of Dayton has SAID you analyze the early returns and the GOP is overperforming and the DEMS are underperforming. But once again little ACE cries over CNN....it is pathetic!

You Ace have no idea what you are talking about for OH. You do not have family there like many of us. I have several working for the campaign in OH and you simply have no idea what you are saying. Mitt is hitting on all his targets andexceeding. This is the LINCHPIN state for OBAMA and Ace just misses the ball each time.

They will show this state like this until election day and then claim Romney stole OH because people like you refuse to understand the OH polls!

There will be NO ADV for OBAMA in OH at all...even today check out Gallup's new partisan polling they have found:

REPUBLICANS PLUS 1....not DEMS PLUS 5 which means every poll that is oversampling Dems is garbage....

CNN/TIME want to show Obama up in OH to claim Romney stole the state. SORRY ACE...the early numbers are not good for Obama at all. You keep forgetting McCain won OH on election day and only lost because of Obama's 20 percent early vote adv. IT IS GONE!

WAKE UP ACE and stop messing your pants on OH. You have not understood the state since day 1 and you still do not!

You have to love pouty Ace's line...LOOK LOOK CNN partisan split is not unbelievable...and LOOK LOOK HE IS WINNING INDIES:

Never mind clueless that 9 other polls in OH have Romney winning Indies by high single to double digits....except TIME which did its poll with CNN....LOL!!

God please enlighten Ace....he looks so dumb when it comes to my Buckeye State.

Romney will win OH by minimum of 4 points.....early voting already tells you that..BUT BELIEVE CNN ACE....especially since you are clueless how they give the edge to Indies....lol!...could it be Dems in the Indy Count to hide that????

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (HDcKc)

203 Who wants a glossy booklet about my second term? I've got millions and can't give them away. You sheeple should be wearing a dunce cap!

Posted by: B. Hussein Obama at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (WolTZ)

204 So when/if the polls adjust their samples to reflect a more realistic turnout, I will catch them.

FYI - This race has been completely stable since October 13th. I posted the trend lines on my blog (link in nic) this morning.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (dX4hn)

205
Six weeks ago, every lefty site was on message, hitting Romney for being a rich, out of touch plutocrat that was EXTREME.

Now they are all over the place. If OFA isn't communicating directly with lefty bloggers, then you know they are spending every moment freaking the fork out.

Keep steady, and we'll win this thing.

Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (TR60b)

206 Tweet of the day again to help ace feel better.

Adrian Gray ‏@adrian_gray
OHIO in one tweet: 220k fewer Dems have voted vs 2008, 30k more GOP. That's net 250k. Obama won by 260k in '08. Now 11 days left.

But what does he know, he only worked on two successful Republican presidential campaigns at for the RNC.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (TMB3S)

207 Any desperate Dem praying for an Obama victory should read this. Warning, it will ruin your day:

http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/why-i-think-obama-is-toast/

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (hlUJY)

208 "Yeah, I know. I'm just fantasizing."

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (+tqYo)

Stick to fantasizing about her: http://is.gd/zwF6EA

You have a better chance.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 05:36 PM (2b4yb)

209 the scary thing back in 2008 was that the DRI were almost accurate. Annie C had a column that that was the first time that's happened, thanks to greater in roads in DNC voter fraud.

this time around, we have:

illegals' self deportation
some fightback against ACORN (note that GOP let it reform in new ways, against the intent of these laws)
some voter ID laws (again, weak GOP let judges deball these laws)
and lack of new D voter registration.

so...I hope for 2010 plus another point of R plus the huge I's for romney,

#R60O40

Ultimately, sweep the close senate races too. Akin, McMahon, the dude in RI, sadly no Bongino..

Posted by: joeindc44 will start talking like biden. like. biden. at October 26, 2012 05:36 PM (QxSug)

210 202 dude

Posted by: JDP at October 26, 2012 05:36 PM (60GaT)

211 oh gerg. Hi gerg. Every time you post, I get more and more sure we're soooooo going to whip ass on election night. Why? Cause well, the Obama campaign is so strung out and desperate, you're the best they've got. Then I laugh and laugh and laugh. Like that Gloria Allred stunt. The stink of desperation is drawing all the bottom feeders.

Thanks for brightening my day.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:36 PM (eMjRH)

212
shirley feeney, holy shit, that's a reference.
====
Heddo!

Posted by: Andrew Squigman at October 26, 2012 05:36 PM (0CiTm)

213 From what I read this morning, Romney should write off Ohio. Apparently 800,000 votes (approx 11%) are going to be stored in some warehouse awaiting opening on Nov 17th. (USA Today) This in a state that was decided by a 3% margin in 08. Most likely the winning vote is going to sit on ice for 10 fucking days.

We need this to END on Nov 7th. Spend the money somewhere else Mitt. Don't finance massive voter fraud.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (feFL6)

214 If R/R was worried about Ohio would they putting ads on in Minnesota & campaigning in Wisconsin & coming to Erie Pa. ??

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (ck76k)

215 I do get tired of all state polls not asking the basic "who did you vote for in 2008." That, imo, is the best way to tell whether or not your sample sucks. This poll did ask that question. The SurveyUSA poll from a few days ago did ask that question and it was pretty damning for Obama.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (pnHKr)

216 bluerose--have you and Jeff B. been introduced?

Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (r2PLg)

217 "The reason Ohio is giving me the shakes is that I haven't seen a single
poll with Romney ahead there. I see some times, and more Obama leads."

The only thing to do is to grit our teeth, tighten our belts, and GOTV as hard as we can.

Posted by: torquewrench at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (ymG7s)

218 I do not grasp worrying about CNN, PPP, NBC etc polls.

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (GvYeG)

219
So when/if the polls adjust their samples to reflect a more realistic turnout, I will catch them.

FYI - This race has been completely stable since October 13th. I posted the trend lines on my blog (link in nic) this morning.
-------------------------------------------
I've been using the 14 day trend as well. It looks to me like the polls have stabilized, but with a slight upward bend for Romney. I expect it to take one more jump up to 50 or 51 then stay there until finishing at 52.

Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (TR60b)

220 208 "Yeah, I know. I'm just fantasizing."

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:31 PM (+tqYo)

Stick to fantasizing about her: http://is.gd/zwF6EA

You have a better chance.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 05:36 PM (2b4yb)



You do love that pic don't you?


Not that there's a damn thing wrong with that.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (n5+zr)

221 "Okay. You, you and you panic. You and you stay calm."




Graham Marshall, "A Shock to the System"

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:38 PM (+tqYo)

222 Wisconsin voters do not register as Democrat or Republican, so be wary of any numbers supposedly coming out of Wisconsin that make claims of who is ahead in the early voting. That said, suburban counties that were strong for Walker are reporting higher early voting turnout than Dane Co (Madison).

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:38 PM (P6QsQ)

223 The 2/10 Rule. It is your friend.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 05:38 PM (n5+zr)

224 208

Wow! It's Miss Brooklyn!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:39 PM (+tqYo)

225
The next set of polls to cycle out of the RCP average are basically all that Obama has showing a lead. They date to the early part of October.

As polls are brought in next week, as long as they show a Romney lead--which I expect, a 2-3 point lead should emerge by the weekend.

Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 05:39 PM (TR60b)

226 omg--the chair, the rope and the rafters?

Ace is choking it--gangham style.

Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 05:39 PM (r2PLg)

227
The 2/10 Rule. It is your friend.

---

Is that a snide reference to Gerg's IQ?

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 05:39 PM (aHR5E)

228
I'll laugh when MI goes Romney on election night, mainly because that arrogant SOB in the WH totally ignored it, thought it was in the bag.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2012 05:39 PM (PHb2k)

229 What's a dunce cap?

Posted by: Everyone under age 30 at October 26, 2012 05:40 PM (EiQV2)

230 For people looking for reassurance on Ohio, I would direct you to the polling numbers in 2004 and 2008 for a primer on how Ohio has rolled relative to the national vote.

In 2004, Bush won nationwide by 2.4%. He won Ohio by 2.11%. Which is to say that Bush ran BEHIND his national margin in Ohio by a slight amount.

In 2008, Obama won by 4.6% nationwide. He won Ohio by 4.59% percent. Which is to say that Obama ALSO ran behind his national margin by a slight(er) amount.

The upshot is that OH has swung almost like clockwork over the last two cycles with the national vote. (And the only reason it didn't do so in 2000 was because Gore ultimately pulled out of the state, putting all his resources into FL and NH and IA instead.)

Given the trends over the past eight years, and the lack of any sharpening margin for one party or the other, it would be very surprising indeed if the final outcome in OH didn't roughly mirror the national popular vote.

Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 05:40 PM (/COnL)

231 Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (n5+zr)

I like this one too!

http://is.gd/Ry10ch

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 05:41 PM (2b4yb)

232
For the life of me, I can't figure out why you guys bust on a troll when he's not here.

Is it getting that boring around here?

Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 05:41 PM (TR60b)

233 227
The 2/10 Rule. It is your friend.

---

Is that a snide reference to Gerg's IQ?
Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 05:39 PM (aHR5E)



Lol. Nope, it's a rule that's been applied here and there on chronicly long winded commenters. 2 paragraphs, 10 sentences. No more or it gets zapped.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 05:41 PM (n5+zr)

234 If R/R was worried about Ohio would they putting ads on in Minnesota & campaigning in Wisconsin & coming to Erie Pa. ??

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (ck76k)

Because if they think Ohio is lost they need to win all of those.

Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 05:41 PM (kb15i)

235 For the life of me, I can't figure out why you guys bust on a troll when he's not here.


---

A - It's Gerg.

B - It will be back.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 05:42 PM (aHR5E)

236



By the way, where is this story about Harry "I love the BBC" Reid in a car accident?




Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:42 PM (+tqYo)

237 Posted by: bluerose75 at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (HDcKc)

Well, in that case, if the crazy lady with a fondness for capital letters says so...

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2012 05:42 PM (SY2Kh)

238 What's a dunce cap?

Posted by: Everyone under age 30 at October 26, 2012 05:40 PM

It's a modification of the European stupidity indicator called "donkey ears" == (heh). Really.

Posted by: LC LaWedgie at October 26, 2012 05:42 PM (0It32)

239 >>>would they putting ads on in Minnesota campaigning in Wisconsin coming to Erie Pa. ??

Um..Yeah That's exactly what they would do. You call that a "contingency plan" or an alternate way to 270 if you will.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:42 PM (eMjRH)

240
Is Oiho in Central Time?

I guess I could look it up.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 05:42 PM (0CiTm)

241 Did I see someone quoting "Purple poll"? Good heavens, in every swing state they have Romney upside down double digits in his unfavorables. Yeah thats the state of the race.

Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 05:43 PM (kb15i)

242 Ace-

Try looking at certain swing states and only include polls with +1,000 sample sizes and/or MOEs less than 3%. Those run better for Romney.

Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 05:43 PM (r2PLg)

243 I think Ohioans have reached their political saturation by now. At a certain point, campaigning becomes anti-campaigning. The ground effort is in place in Ohio; much of it hinges on Kasich in pointing out how his policies have been instrumental in the recovery in the state, as it were.

The only numbers to think about between now and election day are the UE rate and the Dow.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 05:43 PM (Ec6wH)

244
If R/R was worried about Ohio would they putting ads on in Minnesota campaigning in Wisconsin coming to Erie Pa.

-------------



It's a fallback strategy.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:43 PM (P6QsQ)

245 Who is that sharp elbow lady?

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:43 PM (fsLdt)

246 otherwise ace becomes peggy noonan

Great, there goes my favorite sock

Posted by: wooga, not finger banging anybody at October 26, 2012 05:43 PM (vjyZP)

247 Just read that Harry Reid is ok, probably a broken rib.

Posted by: LRBnSC at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (Qp3K5)

248 Is Oiho in Central Time?

----------

Not sure about Oiho, but Ohio is definitely Eastern Time Zone.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (P6QsQ)

249 >>>I can't figure out why you guys bust on a troll when he's not here.

Just cause you weren't quick enough to see him. Doesn't mean he wasn't (isn't) here.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (eMjRH)

250 MJ -- it is here you just aren't seeing it.

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (fsLdt)

251 If R/R was worried about Ohio would they putting ads on in Minnesota & campaigning in Wisconsin & coming to Erie Pa. ??

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (ck76k)

On the other hand, the Romney article on his website seems pretty confident about winning Ohio.

Posted by: Scottye_fl at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (kb15i)

252 Meh. A few cracked ribs on Reid.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (+tqYo)

253 Ryan has been in and out of here, and Romney is coming Monday night to a rally at the State Fairgrounds in suburban Milwaukee.
Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:35 PM (P6QsQ)


-----------------------------------------


See, Ace. Mama knows.

Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (emJ/1)

254 I wonder what the smell was like in Reid's emergency room.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 05:45 PM (Ec6wH)

255 Surely the same bunch of folks that sustained Walker will upend Obama. Surely.

Posted by: pendejo grande at October 26, 2012 05:45 PM (OZW5B)

256 Part of me is so confident that I feel Team R. is wasting an opportunity to tune their war-chest towards maximizing the GOP senate seats.

Two years of a Harry Reid led Senate could create giant, cluster-fuck headaches for the Romney administration.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 05:45 PM (UypUQ)

257 Meh. A few cracked ribs on Reid.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (+tqYo)

-------------
Maybe it will keep him home for a while, and away from lurking around the Boy Scout meetings.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:45 PM (P6QsQ)

258 Just read that Harry Reid is ok, probably a broken rib.

Gosh....that's... great.

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:46 PM (fsLdt)

259
meh

Posted by: Dr. Varno at October 26, 2012 05:46 PM (EiQV2)

260 Just read that Harry Reid is ok, probably a broken rib.
Posted by: LRBnSC at October 26, 2012 05:44 PM (Qp3K5)


-----------------------------------


Shucks.

Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 05:47 PM (emJ/1)

261 Harry Reid was conscious long enough to ask to be sent to the Children’s Hospital.

Posted by: George Orwell what knows the Obama regime has committed treason at October 26, 2012 05:47 PM (AZGON)

262 upend Obama

I love that phrase.

Posted by: Reggie Love at October 26, 2012 05:47 PM (feFL6)

263 #165 Tapper being an ass on twitter. Defending MSM cover ups.

Well, I would go harass him, but he is so thin-skinned he blocked me months ago. Me, polite Miss Marple! All I did was ask several pointed questions!

He's an ass. When I followed him he devoted lots of tweets to things like pop music and movies, which was his MAJOR in college (pop culture). The chief White House correspondent for ABC majored in People Magazine crap.

So despite his ill-deserved reputation as a "hard-hitting reporter" he is really ill-informed and mostly interested in popularity.

Those of you who haven't been blocked ought to pile on him like an avalanche in Grenoble. He needs to be convinced that if he doesn't cover Benghazi he will no longer get a good table at Sans Souci.

Posted by: Miss Marple at October 26, 2012 05:47 PM (GoIUi)

264 On a fun note, Little Winger passed Joe Biden's motorcade on I-94 today coming out of Racine and gave him the finger.

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 05:48 PM (P6QsQ)

265 Just read that Harry Reid is ok, probably a broken rib.

---

Bless his heart.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 05:48 PM (Hx5uv)

266 Hey, ace, since you're in this thread, I just want to say thanks to you and the cob-loggers for all
your hard work giving us 'rons and 'ronettes a place of refuge in a
moron-unfriendly world. AoSHQ and Hot Air have been my lifeline since
2006 or so, and Hot Air is making some changes that I suppose must be
necessary but rather regret (changing the format, flirting with Facebook
commenting [ick! hope they don't make that permanent], changing the
Green Room, etc.).


I hit your tip jar last month and will
hit it again before the election. Goofy comment system and all, I
honestly hope this place never changes. Love you guys!

Posted by: Mary in LA at October 26, 2012 05:48 PM (9wOfB)

267
Broken ribs hurt. So there's that.

RE: Ohio--electing Kasich? No solace there?

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 05:48 PM (0CiTm)

268
Oh, I see. All the polling firms just happen randomly to be showing Obama winning Ohio! That old "margin of error" is cropping up in all the polls and only in one direction!

Election night is going to be so much fun with all your heads exploding when Ohio is called for Obama and the polls were right all along.

I'll be rubbing your noses in that stink all night long.

------

This guy. Listen, there are two things here 1) you're going to be banned continuosly from here on out and 2)You won't even be here because Romney is going to win the race and you'll be to much of a coward to show the fuck up. And, just to add a third, you're a fucking idiot. Which really has nothing to do with anything at all, but it's true.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:49 PM (pnHKr)

269 Harry must had a hard time driving with those boys in the back seat.

Posted by: dantesed at October 26, 2012 05:49 PM (+OqJt)

270 Wisconsin will work in lieu of Ohio but only if Mitt also gets NH or one of the other toss ups like Iowa or Nevada. But you knew that.

Posted by: TD, one of the proud 53% at October 26, 2012 05:49 PM (DQMcq)

271
Ohio--electing Kasich? No solace there?

---------

I take none in it. Not when the state largely hates the man now and voted down his reform bill by a massive margin. I really do hate the people arond me.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:50 PM (pnHKr)

272 231
Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 26, 2012 05:37 PM (n5+zr)

I like this one too!

http://is.gd/Ry10ch


Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 26, 2012 05:41 PM (2b4yb)


You call those tits? THESE are Tits!NSFW!!
http://tinyurl.com/933ox59

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 05:50 PM (ovpNn)

273 Broken ribs hurt. So there's that.

Yes I've heard it's extremely painful. He won't be in the mood for the boys for a while.

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:51 PM (fsLdt)

274 I live in Ohio and the stupid is very strong here. Of course, I live in Columbus, where stupid is thick. I had to make a trip to Cinci yesterdayand once I was out of metro Columbus, Obama signs were few and far between. Saw about 1000 Romney signs. The only place you see Obama signs is in the lower income areas, and the white guilt liberal areas like Bexley, and the OSU campus area and German Village.

Posted by: megthered at October 26, 2012 05:51 PM (iR4Dg)

275
Wisconsin puts Romney at 271 if he picks up NH and CO. I'm 100% sure CO will go for Romney, but not so much on NH.

Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 05:51 PM (TR60b)

276 114
Honestly Ace, you know me as one of our resident Eeyores...and I have to
tell you: not only are we not losing Ohio, we're going to win Wisconsin
as well. And from people who are on the ground and inside the Romney
campaign, I can tell you there are two states out there that are
potentially set to shock the shit out of liberals and the MSM come
November 6th. In a good way -- for us.

Me? I'm spending the day
tomorrow in Newport News, VA, knocking on doors and making phone calls
(and that's a bitch of a commute for a guy who lives in the MD suburbs).
I highly recommend that everyone else go and do the same thing.

But I will say this: Romney's internals right now? I have it on reasonably good authority that they are actually far better
in states like OH, VA, FL, and certain other mystery states that I
shall not mention than everyone out here realizes. There is a bit of
"well this can't QUITE be correct, can it?" attitude among people, but
the numbers are returning consistently and in the same direction.

Let
me put it this way: IA, NH, WI: toss a coin, these could go either way.
OH? Mitt will win, and the call will be made on election night, not
after five recounts or any sort of thing like that. It most certainly
didn't look that way as recently as a month ago. But it does now. My
final call? 52-48 Romney over Obama.

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong.


Posted by: Jeff B. at October 26, 2012 05:18 PM (/COnL)

I bet it is Minnesota, which is trending Republican, and either PA or MI. Romney wins Ohio because Republicans actually turn out for this election. They did not in 2008.

Posted by: NWConservative at October 26, 2012 05:51 PM (M1gmo)

277 "Posted by: Schrödinger's cat"
==========

What's the deal with you? Are you alive or dead, dammit?

Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 05:52 PM (znT2j)

278 Adrian Gray @adrian_gray
CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early. Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:52 PM (ck76k)

279 Still almost 2wk out...they're all still sucking O-dick.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 26, 2012 05:52 PM (eRV2W)

280 I've had the same feeling but didn't express it, didn't want to seem
concern trollish, but I'm glad Ace has. It's a fine line to keep eyes wide open and err on the side of caution while
remaining optimistic and confident. Eyeorishness and overconfidence are equally dangerous.

I understand why
Romney wants to remain above the fray, but it's time for PACs,
surrogates and leakers to spill, leak, spread, imply, suggest,
manipulate... whatever is necessary. Whatever. Is. Necessary.


Posted by: Mayday at October 26, 2012 05:52 PM (F3s39)

281 jeremiah -- fool me twice....

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:53 PM (fsLdt)

282 oh gerg. If Obama really had Ohio in a lock, you would never tell us. That way we would continue to spend all our money and efforts there. You are not only a loser you are losings harbinger, your very appearance declaring the opposite of what you portend with far more declarative fervor than you can ever manage with your feeble prose.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at October 26, 2012 05:53 PM (eMjRH)

283
I live in Ohio and the stupid is very strong here. Of course, I live in Columbus, where stupid is thick. I had to make a trip to Cinci yesterdayand once I was out of metro Columbus, Obama signs were few and far between. Saw about 1000 Romney signs. The only place you see Obama signs is in the lower income areas, and the white guilt liberal areas like Bexley, and the OSU campus area and German Village.

--------

All of this. Especially the part about Bexley (where I live). The very rich, jewish area has a hard-on for Obama. Although, I have to admit, there are quite a few Romney signs my neighborhood.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 05:53 PM (pnHKr)

284 Jake Tapper benefits by not being as bad as, say, Chris Matthews or most of the others, but I've always thought the conservative love for the guy was misplaced.

He was Joan Walsh at Salon before Joan Walsh was Joan Walsh at Salon.

Posted by: Kensington at October 26, 2012 05:53 PM (znT2j)

285
Ohio will require an improvement of 200K votes. There were 5.6M votes cast, so this isn't the biggest hurdle in the world.

Posted by: MJ at October 26, 2012 05:53 PM (TR60b)

286 Get your tickets now!

A conference on “Personhood Beyond the Human” will be held at Yale University, April 19-21, 2013. The event will focus on personhood for nonhuman animals, including great apes, cetaceans, and elephants, and will explore the evolving notions of personhood by analyzing them through the frameworks of neuroscience, behavioral science, philosophy, ethics, and law.

The conference will be co-sponsored by the Nonhuman Rights Project and the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies in collaboration with the Yale Interdisciplinary Center for Bioethics.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 26, 2012 05:54 PM (Hx5uv)

287 You call those tits? THESE are Tits!NSFW!!http://tinyurl.com/933ox59
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 05:50 PM (ovpNn)


----------------------------------------------


I hope you get sick and have to share a hospital room with Harry Reid.

Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2012 05:54 PM (emJ/1)

288 I guess this means Harry won't be working on steal Get out the Vote in Nevada?

Posted by: Chicken ala King at October 26, 2012 05:54 PM (VvvBE)

289 What's the deal with you? Are you alive or dead, dammit?

Yes.

Posted by: eleven at October 26, 2012 05:54 PM (fsLdt)

290 I'd feel better if I didn't even need an argument, though, you know?

I know exactly what you mean. I want to see Rasmussen state polling for Ohio, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania go to R 52 O 46 every day for 7 days in a row.

But even though the truth may be close to that, the media will not give it to us. They believe they have the power to shape reality by denying reality.

Posted by: edj at October 26, 2012 05:55 PM (+QKfp)

291 Jeez, I figured it was about time for another panic attack.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 26, 2012 05:56 PM (qEkGZ)

292 http://tinyurl.com/9p7ukbf


BREAKING: Local Reporter Says Obama Refuses To Answer “Repeated Questions On Whether Requests For Help In Benghazi Were Denied”

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:56 PM (ck76k)

293 291 They have jobs.

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 26, 2012 05:56 PM (GvYeG)

294 I know shit but I'm guessing if PA goes red at 9 it's over for JEPOS. Don't pull away the football this time, Lucy.

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 26, 2012 05:56 PM (0CiTm)

295 How does WI not go R with Paul Ryan on the ticket? Those guys don't want a home-state president in 8 years?

Posted by: toby928© for TB at October 26, 2012 05:57 PM (evdj2)

296 With all of the bullshit he's peddling, someone's gonna take Nate Silver's thumbs by Veterans' Day.

Then again, they're too much money riding on the outcome to trust some effete douchenozzle at the NY Times.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 05:58 PM (Ec6wH)

297 292
http://tinyurl.com/9p7ukbf





BREAKING: Local Reporter Says Obama Refuses To Answer “Repeated Questions On Whether Requests For Help In Benghazi Were Denied”

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 05:56 PM (ck76k)

VIDEO VIDEO GIVE ME THE FUCKING VIDEO FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP FAP

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Ali Muhammad Surpra-izi Amin U'rbu T'hol wright at October 26, 2012 05:59 PM (ovpNn)

298 Article: Nevada Highway Patrol said his caravan was involved in a six-car
accident about 1:10 p.m. on northbound Interstate 15 at Sahara Avenue.
Four of the cars were with Reid's caravan.


Was the caravan speeding? Did Harry Reid give the order speed? If not, did he know they were speeding and fail to stop it?

<< SLAPS SELF >>

Sorry. I was stuck in Benghazi mode.

Posted by: edj at October 26, 2012 05:59 PM (+QKfp)

299
What the hell is a "fag shark"?

Posted by: Redd at October 26, 2012 06:00 PM (RoEtU)

300
Didn't Reid's wife get into a serious car accident last year? Can anyone in that family drive?

Posted by: Redd at October 26, 2012 06:01 PM (RoEtU)

301 I live in Wisconsin and it's dicey for Republicans. We've had a good run with Prosser, the Senate recalls, and the Walker recall, but Dane and Milwaukee counties are liberal cocoons. "Independent" here means "lean Democrat." I am hoping we keep up the streak and turn red this election, but more than that, I hope it's not necessary.

Posted by: Jack Hammer at October 26, 2012 06:01 PM (JHbj+)

302 Dave in Florida. Love the work your doing on your blog. Keep it up, its a sanity break for me and I hope you are right.

Posted by: deusexmachina at October 26, 2012 06:01 PM (6RTwM)

303 Reince Priebus just tweeted that the RNC is now running ad in WI entitled "It's okay to make a change" .

Posted by: mama winger voted twice for Paul Ryan on the same ballot at October 26, 2012 06:02 PM (P6QsQ)

304
When they don't call NJ right away, you'll know the Romney landslide is on.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2012 06:02 PM (PHb2k)

305
but Dane and Milwaukee counties are liberal cocoons. "Independent" here means "lean Democrat." I am hoping we keep up the streak and turn red this election, but more than that, I hope it's not necessary.

-------

And yet, Cuyahoga County they are not.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 06:03 PM (pnHKr)

306 CNN OH poll: Obama leads 59-38 among 1.4 million that voted early.
Romney leads 51-44 among 4.4 million have yet to vote. You do the math.

---

Okay.

21-point lead * 1.4 = 29.4
07-point lead * 4.4 = 30.8

Romney comes out ahead.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 06:04 PM (UypUQ)

307 I wonder if a signifigant portion of "I voted early" are people who have not but in their minds INTEND to vote early.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2012 06:05 PM (UypUQ)

308 The Libune endorses Obama!!!!

I guess he'll be carrying Illinois (into a vast economic wasteland).

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 06:05 PM (Ec6wH)

309 http://tinyurl.com/8kjqotn

OPINION CONTRIBUTOR

Obama's fuzzy Ohio early vote math

For Ace & all the Bed Shitters

Posted by: Evilpens at October 26, 2012 06:07 PM (ck76k)

310 Stealing this from another website that has gone full den-bot but here is a good comment and of course it is down dinged.


______________________________

My head actually exploded while I was reading this post and the items to which it makes reference. No, seriously, I’m crippled. I might never recover.

Where do you even start with this?

Ahem.

The notion that if Rasmussen says X and if the average of all the other polls says Y means ipso facto that Rasmussen is + or – Z “biased” is so numbingly cognitively dissonant it could actually substitute for anesthesia. All it means is that Rasmussen is using a different weighting methodology. Either he’s right or he’s wrong. We’ll know after Election Day. But what takes it from the absurd literally to the comatose is that most if not all of these other polls to which references are made laughably are rigging their own samples to boost Obama. That’s the most surreal part about all this nonsense.

But before we get to what the liberal media polls are doing let’s take a step back. Using a likely voter model weighted by party ID not only is not suspect as a methodology it’s common sense. It’s not as if there are 20 possible categories of voters. People either are Democrats, or Republicans, or Independents. People either are more motivated or less motivated to vote. People either are more likely or less likely to vote. In large part that breaks down along partisan party lines. This isn’t rocket science. It’s not a closely guarded state secret. Geez.

Getting back to the Rasmussen vs. other polls dog & pony show, again, what numbs the skull is the fact that so many of these media polls blatanly and brazenly are stacking the decks in favor of Obama. And it’s not even about partisan party “skew.” It’s a lot simpler than that. It’s a lot more basic. As basic as black and white, male and female. Literally.

Check out the internals of some of these other polls. PPP and Gravis Marketing stand out. Marist too. Compare the racial breakdowns to historical exit data info. Let’s say for example, just humor me, white people were 83% and black people were 11% of the OH electorate in ’08. Of course that was a “transformative” wave election cycle for Obama, so it goes without saying that this time around relative black turnout won’t be higher. Can we at least agree on that? And let’s say, again humor me, that if a poll, oh, “hypothetically” PPP, has included 80% white people and 13% black people in a survey of OH, well, then guess what, Cochise, that means they oversampled blacks and undersampled whites. For obvious reasons. The same analysis would hold true for women and men. If a polling service is including significantly more women in a survey of OH than the actual number of women who voted last time around do we really need a flow chart and a puppet show to explain to us why they’d be doing that?

I’ll go ahead and let people in on final dirty secret of the recent media polling. In recent weeks it’s become obvious even to liberals in the media that Romney is winning with Independents. Every poll says so. So what have the media polling services done? Yeah, you guessed it, they’ve started to undersample Independents. Right now SurveyUSA is the most noteworthy culprit. Check out the internals of their recent polls. Notice that they clearly state Romney is winning the Independent vote. Usually ranging from 7-9 points. But then juxtapose the percentages of Independents in their surveys with the percentages of Independents who actually voted in ’08 and in ’04. Connect….the….dots.

Look, in the end none of this will matter. If Obama wins this election, even if by exactly one dead felon in Cleveland, nobody is going to go back and say “Hey, wait a minute, the likes of Time, NBC/Marist, CBS/NYT, PPP, SurveyUSA, etc., all had him up 3 or more points in OH a week or so before the election, what gives?” The left will be too busy preening and beating their chests and the right will be too busy engaging in a circular firing squad. And if Romney wins the election, even if by two full percentage points in OH, the right will move on to complaining about his presidency and the left instantly will go into full litigation and recount mode and will spend the ensuing four years claiming that Diebold did it, or Halliburton, or Rove, or Bush, or whatever. C’est la vie.

Reply
Poorly-rated. Helpful or Unhelpful: 8 28

Posted by: tasker at October 26, 2012 06:07 PM (r2PLg)

311
Here is something to keep in mind when people talk about the early vote numbers, a much higher percentage of democrats are voting for Romney, then are RINO's voting for Ofuckmcfuckstick.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 26, 2012 06:08 PM (PHb2k)

312
Rich @ 283
Really. I drive up and down Cassady Avenue and enjoy counting the signs from time to time. I have reason to go to Bexley as my son is at Capital. I reckon the Obama signs are about 4:1 over Romney in Bexley.

In Westerville, the Romney signs are running about 3:1 over Obama.

Fun times. Romney wins Ohio by about 175K votes out of 5.75 million votes cast (by end of voting on Nov.6). Really, Romney is in a stronger position in Ohio than Michigan or Wisconsin, which still may swing his way (close!). Indeed, the weighting is to keep morale up among the Obama faithful.

Romney does not win Pennsylvania. Close, but not really. Wisconsin is still a toss up. Michigan is all about who turns out to vote; they could still go Republican. Iowa I think still goes Democrat. The surprise may be New Mexico going Republican.

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at October 26, 2012 06:11 PM (RFeQD)

313 The Tribune actually states the following in its endorsement of Charlie Cheswick Ofuckston

This nation faces no existential threat greater than the enormous federal indebtedness that imperils today’s America and, far more important, our children’s America. That slow strangulation endangers every household in the land -- when our debt payments skyrocket, our taxes rise to fill the fiscal voids, and entitlement programs go insolvent...

...and it thinks Obama's up to paying down the debt.

It's a shame they got rid of those paper machines on the corner--I used to enjoy sticking washers in the coin slots.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 06:11 PM (Ec6wH)

314 his state went for Bush in 2004. Do you *really* think that all the independents there are going to swing to Obama in 2012 after his massive losses among them since 2009, over inoffensive and competent Romney? That a double-digit lead among Independents everywhere else in the country just magically and coincidentally not just vanishes, but reverses in Ohio, the focus of Democratic efforts?

My problem is yeah, for like 10 years, I've thought Ohio was trending more and more Democratic.

Ohio used to be a fairly strong Republican-leaning state. Not any longer.

Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:14 PM (LCRYB)

Based on what? Obama underperformed his national average even in 2008.

Ohio may go blue, but it hasn't yet.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 26, 2012 06:12 PM (rzSn3)

315
Ace? How the**^ can anyone be independant and/or undecided at this point? Why do they control our thoughts? they are morons.

Posted by: Baron of Gray Matter at October 26, 2012 06:14 PM (5UEzy)

316 A conference on “Personhood Beyond the Human” will be held at Yale
University, April 19-21, 2013. The event will focus on personhood for
nonhuman animals, including great apes, cetaceans, and elephants, and
will explore the evolving notions of personhood by analyzing them
through the frameworks of neuroscience, behavioral science, philosophy,
ethics, and law.


God, I wish I were there. Of course, my threshold for personhood would be "being able to understand calculus".

They find such kinship with such animals because they are so like them intellectually.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2012 06:15 PM (T0NGe)

317 I doubt if there are that many "independents " or "undecideds" at this point. It's more like "refuse to share my personal opinion with you jackals pestering the life out of me with this phone call".

Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at October 26, 2012 06:16 PM (RFeQD)

318 I will continue to occasionally report actual new information, if you don't mind.





Posted by: ace at October 26, 2012 05:06 PM (LCRYB)

That's fine, Ace. If you could please do it with less hysterics everytime a Dem-loving pollster yanks your chain it would be nice, though. I dunno. Do you actually enjoy having panic attacks? Jeez.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 26, 2012 06:17 PM (qEkGZ)

319 I always thought that was funny about the early...Not a single vote has been actually counted yet..

They use party affiliation to identify...

So if some AFL-CIO errrrr UAW recently registered Democrat homer votes Romney...The early vote tally is for Oblamo...

Which I would find more likely more frequently than the other way around...


Posted by: Chicken ala King at October 26, 2012 06:18 PM (VvvBE)

320 Hold the line!

Clear Eyes, Full Heart, Can't Lose!!!

Posted by: TheThinMan at October 26, 2012 06:19 PM (GZqzs)

321
Rich @ 283
Really. I drive up and down Cassady Avenue and enjoy counting the signs from time to time. I have reason to go to Bexley as my son is at Capital. I reckon the Obama signs are about 4:1 over Romney in Bexley.

In Westerville, the Romney signs are running about 3:1 over Obama.

Fun times. Romney wins Ohio by about 175K votes out of 5.75 million votes cast (by end of voting on Nov.6). Really, Romney is in a stronger position in Ohio than Michigan or Wisconsin, which still may swing his way (close!). Indeed, the weighting is to keep morale up among the Obama faithful.

Romney does not win Pennsylvania. Close, but not really. Wisconsin is still a toss up. Michigan is all about who turns out to vote; they could still go Republican. Iowa

-------------

Oh there is no doubt that overall the Obama signs outnumber the Romney signs in Bexley and specifically on Cassady (I live on the street). But, the route I take every day, which is down Drexler has more Romney signs than Obama signs. If I were to drive around the entire neighborhood, I'm sure the Obama signs would take a lead. But, at least it isn't a whitewash.

Posted by: Rich at October 26, 2012 06:22 PM (pnHKr)

322 I've discovered Gerg's real identity, in The Phantom Tollbooth: the demon of insincerity. Here is a synopsis.

From nowhere a voice begins shouting what seems to be helpful advice,
directing the three companions through a confusing part of the trail.
But before they know it, they drop into a deep pit and realize they've
been tricked. The owner of the voice introduces himself as the
long-nosed, green-eyed, curly-haired, wide- mouthed, thick-necked,
broad-shouldered, round-bodied, short-armed, bowlegged, big-footed
Monster—or simply the Demon of Insincerity.


The demon warns Milo and his friends not to try to escape
from the pit since he is "one of the most frightening fiends in this
whole wild wilderness". Tock and the Humbug cower in fear, but Milo
pulls out the telescope that Alec Bings told him would show things as
they really were. He takes a good look at the Demon of Insincerity and
discovers that he is a small, pathetic-looking animal. Crushed by Milo's
realization of the truth, the demon wanders away while the travelers
climb out of the pit.

Posted by: edj at October 26, 2012 06:22 PM (+QKfp)

323 What kind of America will Obama preside over if he attains a second term?
- Business owners despise him
- The military despises him
- The professional classes (except for lawyers) despise him
- The elderly despise him and he won't bring back Matlock

These are not the same types of constituencies that would oppose Romney; sure, the professional underclass, entertainment industry, and Stupid Bitches™ would be driven to spasms of rage, but rancor is their natural state.

But the merchant class, the warrior class, and the moneyed classes...in other words, the vanguard of this country...cannot be taken lightly.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2012 06:25 PM (Ec6wH)

324 I really hope someone is saving Gerg's predictions for election night. I want its nose rubbed in them like a puppy's nose in a pile of shit.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 26, 2012 06:28 PM (aHR5E)

325 "Dave in Florida. Love the work your doing on your blog. Keep it up, its a sanity break for me and I hope you are right."

I'm right, but my blood pressure would be lower if I didn't have to listen to all the angst from people who should know better.

But to be fair, Ace is unconvinced that my reweighting has validity. Not sure how to convince him otherwise until after the election. By then he will be on a drunken bender after getting invited to all the cool GOP parties, while I'm just slogging through life.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 06:29 PM (dX4hn)

326 21-point lead * 1.4 = 29.4
07-point lead * 4.4 = 30.8

Romney comes out ahead.

The math is a little wrong here.

Assuming 1.4 million and 4.4 million is right, and the percentages are right:

Of the 1.4 million,
Obama gets 826000
Romoney gets 532000

Of the 4.4 million,
Obama gets 1936000
Romney gets 2244000

Totals:
Obama: 2762000
Romney 2776000

Obama: 49.88%
Romney: 50.12%

It's too damn close. Fuckin' Ohio man. It's scary as hell.

Posted by: Sheldon Cooper at October 26, 2012 06:30 PM (mcWHD)

327 You have the intestinal fortitude of a bowl of oatmeal.

Posted by: K2 at October 26, 2012 06:34 PM (sKh53)

328 I guess the fact that the polls are utterly worthless is no comfort to you at all Ace.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 26, 2012 06:35 PM (r4wIV)

329 This Electoral College stuff is ridiculous.

It's not just that w/ a popular vote victory over 1%, the odds of winning the EC are 99%. It's that even w/ a popular vote victory of under 1%, the odds are probably over 67% that the EC will also be won.

Look even Nate Silver and his Cult don't really believe that losing the PV and winning the EC is a realistic option for Obama.

Silver himself says the winner of the PV has a better than 95% chance of winning the election.

So why a headline like "Obama still has EC advantage"? If he believes the winner of the PV has a better than 95% chance, why doesn't just focus almost entirely on the PV?

Because I don't think he's a hack, but he is a professional writer. And a D partisan. That blog is one of the most popular things on the NY Times site, and he wants to help Obama, not hurt him. He probably actually does think O will win the popular vote.

But it's better for D morale to focus on OH and the EC. Because a lot of Ds aren't so sure about the PV. And who can blame them?

Remember this dude is a SABRmetrics guy. That's a Baseball thing.

SABRmetrics guys are laughing stocks throughout Baseball for saying things ridiculous things like D. Jeter is the most over rated player in the game and M. Trout should win the MVP over M. Caberra (first triple crown winner in almost 50 years).

For thinking Closers aren't important and locker room leadership means nothing.

Now this SABRmetrics guy, who's found a new home in politics, wants you to believe that a sitting President who's been stuck on 47% in virtually every national poll since the first debate is going to somehow get undecideds to break for him on election day when Romney is at 50% in three of four tracking polls?

Won't happen. What's more likely to happen is that a lot of whites who were scared to be called racists; and Blacks, Latinos, and Asians who were scared of being told they were sell-outs; and told the pollster they were undecided do what we would expect any rational person to do in the privacy of a voting booth...vote against Obama!

Posted by: trickamsterdam at October 26, 2012 06:37 PM (uTBHY)

330 "Of the 1.4 million,
Obama gets 826000
Romoney gets 532000"

Bullshit.

Romney campaign has done the math. GOP has 401K votes in right now, and Dems have 492K. That leaves 500K unaffiliated that we know favor Romney by double digits. Even at 50/50 Obama gets 742K and Romney gets 626K.

Final vote would be:
Romney 2,870,000
Obama 2,672,000

I bet it is higher too.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 26, 2012 06:42 PM (dX4hn)

331 I'm with Dave in FL on this Ohio nonsense from Ace all the fucking time.

Dude, I've only been active in Ohio politics since 1988 and work for a fucking for-profit, private polling firm in the state. We've polled Ohio (among a bunch of states) over the last 7 weeks for one of the two campaigns. Doesn't matter which one because the checks clear and that's what matters to my management.

Obama isn't going to win Ohio. Period.

Mandel will win, too.

I hate to be harsh but I'm tired of the crap. Some of us have lived here for a long damn time and know the state petty well. We know what we're talking about.

Obama will be in Cincinnati on Wednesday trying to gin up votes in Bond Hill and Walnut Hills, i.e., in inner city neighborhoods. He's in desperation, get out the base mode 11 days from Election Day. Do the fucking math, Ace.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

Be not afraid.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at October 26, 2012 06:49 PM (dcoFe)

332 I think Ace caught some kind of rash from hanging around Allahpundit

Posted by: Mr Wonderful at October 26, 2012 07:20 PM (6/bOE)

333 My cousin lives in Ohio and for what its worth she told me today that she sees 10 Romney signs for every 1 obama sign. She said that Mitt Romney was in Cinninnati yesterday.

Posted by: James at October 26, 2012 07:50 PM (IoTd/)

334 Ace, head over to HillBuzz and bring a Band-aid.

Posted by: Redman Bluestate at October 26, 2012 07:51 PM (sRIFP)

335 I think it's a bit unfair to beat up Ace. If we were in as strong a position as we hope and many think, we'd almost certainly see clearer evidence of this in the polls.

Many people here take it as an article of faith that the polls are wrong, corrupted. I've worked in the market research industry for decades and it's utterly predictable that people will attack the agency when they don't see the results they want.

I haven't seen any proof of widespread fraud though. I won't defend any company I don't have direct experience with, but if there was widespread corruption, for one thing there would be leakers. Far more people are involved in producing each poll that you would think. And there's too much overall consistency among polls to believe there's widespread fraud.

It is possible Romney is doing better than we're seeing though. First, we only see what somebody wants us to see. The vast majority of polling is not released to the public, so it can be cherry picked. Gallup, Rasmussen and others that release data on a regular schedule are obvious exceptions. They conduct polls and release results to build their brand, but most polling is conducted for a specific buyer who may or may not choose to publish the results.

There could be
systematic bias in the results we see if R voters are participating in polls at a lower rate
than D voters. (Sure wish I could get my hands on the kind of data I'd
need to find out.). But these possibilities aren't proof Romney is doing better than we're seeing in some places.

The most important thing to watch is movement over time within each pollster's results.

Posted by: Mayday at October 26, 2012 07:57 PM (F3s39)

336 And now, a reminder from an AOSHQ lurker in the Heart of Ohio:

In 2012, there have been 430,000 dead / moved voters removed from the voter rolls in Ohio.....

In 2012, the number of GOP and Independent registered voters has doubled / tripled the Dems.....

In 2008, vote totals = McCain 2,502,218 vs. Obama 2,708,988 - a difference of only 206,770.

Hang in there Ace!




Posted by: slysquire at October 26, 2012 08:04 PM (baOaV)

337
Well DUH!
The reason polls don't show Romney ahead in O-I-H-O is because these clowns know how important it is for Barry. If there's any weakness there, Dems will stay home in drives.
You watch - NH, VA, NC, SC and FL will go Romney early. But the MSM will hold-off giving Romney O-I-H-O (and likely WI too) just to make sure the West Dems don't stay home.
Still think Romney takes O-I-H-O en route to a good ole fashioned butt-whoooopin. The Won about to = The Lost

Posted by: PelosiSchmelosi at October 26, 2012 08:13 PM (epFGF)

338 Reality for stupid neocons.

Ohio: Obama is ahead in every poll (which Ace has stated many times).

Romney will not win without Ohio.

You lose.

I win.

Suck my big cock, wingnuts.

Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2012 08:29 PM (rpZo5)

339 @335 "Many people here take it as an article of faith that the polls are wrong, corrupted. I've worked in the market research industry for decades and it's utterly predictable that people will attack the agency when they don't see the results they want." - mayday

Who says the polls have to be wrong? The President has been stuck at 47% ever since the first debate in virtually every national poll.

You'd have to believe that undecideds are going to break overwhelmingly to him for him to lose by less than a point in the Popular Vote. Which makes no sense...he's been in Office for four years, and is well-known.

Undecideds are not going to break to him on Election Day.

And if he loses the PV by more than a point he has a 99% chance of losing the EV too. Even if he loses the PV by less than a point, he has a better than 2-1 chance of losing the EV to.

Even Nate Silver says the winner of the PV has a 95% chance of winning the EC too. So does every other statistician I've read.

So it's not not believing the polls. It's that people who say they believe Romney will win the PV but lose the EC don't believe the polls.

This includes Nate Silver and his Cult. In fact, especially them. Just remember that he's a SABRmetrics guy...and SABRmetrics is fucked and laughed at in Baseball for quite some tim.

And after this election it will be laughed at in fucking politics too.

Posted by: trickamsterdam at October 26, 2012 08:33 PM (uTBHY)

340 Ya bozos, ya know nuthin about ohio. STOP. Why was Obama and Biden at Triangle Park in Dayton on Tuesday? Why is it that only 9500 of the 10000 tickets given away full seats? Pay attention....this clown is going to lose Montgomery County, for crying out loud. Hamilton County my ass....This is an IUE county, not an UAW county. His auto bailout is hollow in Dayton. NOBODY has an auto job here. Watch....Ryan will willow thru every now and then. Romney is done in this state. Watch PA, WI, NJ, PA....Gonna be ugly

Posted by: butternut at October 26, 2012 09:01 PM (nbYoV)

341 Sorry, MN....

Posted by: butternut at October 26, 2012 09:05 PM (nbYoV)

342 41 I still think a lot of the Ohio polls are simple bias. What happens if there are polls showing Romney up 2 in Ohio? Game over, man. Game over.

Exactly! They have to maintian the illusion Ohio is contested or the whole Democrat election effort from the top to the bottom of the ticket collapses and the whole thing turns into a rout!

Posted by: Grig at October 26, 2012 09:15 PM (BsG1N)

343 Who says the polls have to be wrong? The President has been stuck at 47%
ever since the first debate in virtually every national poll.



You'd have to believe that undecideds are going to break
overwhelmingly to him for him to lose by less than a point in the
Popular Vote. Which makes no sense...he's been in Office for four years,
and is well-known.

--

I agree undecideds are not going to break for Obama. I was responding to people who believe the polls are rigged, and intentionally trying to mislead that Romney is in worse shape than he is.

But if Romney were safely, significantly ahead we'd probably see that. He probably will do better because of undecideds breaking towards him. I'd feel better if we saw him in clearer leads now though (ie, OH or other tied state polls) because we have to allow for the possibility (probability?) of fraud. And I was also kind of defending Ace because a lot of people were giving him a hard time for saying he's a little worried to see the race this close.

Posted by: Mayday at October 26, 2012 09:21 PM (F3s39)

344 Kevin was right, another Eeyore. I am bookmarking this post and coming back to it Nov 7th to leave another comment. If Kevin is wrong about Ohio, I will apologize.

Posted by: Zee Chen at October 26, 2012 10:57 PM (oZIRw)

345 Remember, using the higher-quality, lower MOE polls with 1000 more more respondents, Romney leads by 2.8 average.

Posted by: Mick Langan at October 27, 2012 01:22 AM (n5PpX)

346 And on Sunday he's going to be less than a mile from here at the University of Richmond. Going to see the next President. Just me and many more thousands of his personal friends. Don't even need to get in the car!

Posted by: Davidlind at October 27, 2012 01:42 AM (J9mCu)

347 According to various polls, Obama is ahead of Romneyin Ohio but essentiallytied in MI, PA and WI? Not likely!Ohio is a more conservative state than the other three. At the Presidential level, the Republicans have won Ohio 10 times since WWII (11 if you count 1944) and the Democrats have won it 6 times. Southern Ohio is more like Kentucky than Cleveland.Also, the notion that Obama is leading with independent voters in Ohio, but way behind with them everywhere else is ludicrous. Most of the polling and mediafirms are liberal. They have a vested interest in showing Obama ahead.Obama's allies must at all costs maintain the fiction that Ohio is in play. If this illusion is shattered, it will become clear that Obama will be defeated -and thisthey cannot allow. Mitt Romney will win Ohio comfortably. The Democratic firewall has moved North intotradionally Democratic states.

Posted by: Frank S at October 27, 2012 02:13 AM (B9edC)

348 The CNN Poll interviewed 1009 adults and found 741 of them to be likely voters, which would mean that CNN is projecting 73.4% of all Ohioans to vote. The total in 2008 was just under 60%, and in 2004 it was around 64% (I got that out of a Cleveland newspaper article published shortly after the 2008 election). That means that unless Ohio has an altogether unexpected - and historically unprecedented - HUGE spike in voter participation in 2012, CNN has included somewhere between 100-140 people as likely voters in their pool who are probably not going to vote. Since the actual breakdown to get to a 50-46 split on 741 likely voters only favors Obama by 30 votes (370 to 340), adding 100-140 too many people into the pool could skew the numbers quite significantly. And since we all know that registered voter polls and voting age polls are significantly more favorable to Democrats than likely voter polls, adding 100-140 unlikely voters into a likely voter screen would probably tilt the number in Obama's favor to a fairly substantial - and unjustifiable - degree. I suspect that the Rasmussen poll, which does a much better job with its LV screen, is much more likely to be accurate on Ohio. Rasmussen has Ohio tied at 48-48.

But in any case, nobody spends enough $$$ on these state snapshot polls to do an accurate LV screen. None of them are terribly reliable, and while they provide useful information, they should not be taken too seriously, IMO.

Posted by: Leeotis at October 27, 2012 10:07 AM (QQMnU)

349 from breitbart.com
looks like the hand wringing is for nothing as they try to shuck and jive the polls...

by WYNTON HALL 27 Oct 2012 125 POST A COMMENT

Obama National Field Director Jeremy Bird released a memo on Thursday designed to calm nervous Democrats by advancing the Obama campaign's meme that it is dominating early voting in the battleground state of Ohio.
But as former Republican National Committee strategist Adrian Gray points out, the Obama campaign's Ohio narrative is bogus.
"When things are ugly for a campaign, these types of memos can start flying," writes Mr. Gray. "It is troubling for the president’s supporters that they could not come up with at least a handful of positive data points in Ohio."
As Mr. Gray notes, the Obama campaign's Ohio memo is heavy on anecdotes, light on verifiable data, and plucks mathematical minutiae from sub-group polls to paint a political portrait approximating momentum.
In the memo, the Obama field director touts the fact that he has seen “groups as big as 100 voters going to vote in Athens, Ohio.” The problem: just 604 Democrats in the entire country have voted in person, and no more than 40 in a single precinct.
Mr. Bird also lauds the fact that “precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate.” But as Mr. Gray points out, "this is unverifiable and misleading because there is no such thing as an 'Obama precinct.'" Furthermore, given that redistricting has occurred, "we have entirely new precincts, thereby making it impossible to validate their claim."
Finally, the Obama campaign brags that a Time poll has Mr. Obama up 60-30 among early voters. There's just one problem, says Mr. Gray: "That sub-sample was asked of 145 people and was one of many of similar ilk (with a huge variation in results). Their central data argument is that 43 more people told Time’s pollster over a two-day window they supported Obama. If that is their best claim to a lead in Ohio, it is a troubling picture for the president."
The Obama campaign continues to do all it can to offer its supporters hope by feeding journalists skewed polls. But with statistical mavens like Michael Barone now predicting a Romney victory, look for the Obama campaign to continue to serve up heaping dollops of manufactured mathematical hope to its anxious base.

Posted by: mrks at October 28, 2012 12:58 PM (15/2r)






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