Gallup: 51-46
Rasmussen National: 50-46
Rasmussen Swing States: 50-45
ARG New Hampshire: 49-47

Gallup's numbers were late today. When they finally posted, Obama gained a point to 46%; Romney's lead shrunk from 6 to 5. No change in registered voters from yesterday (48-47 Romney).

Here's an important finding, from @conartcritic. In a poll conducted Oct. 1st through 21st, Gallup found the party affiliation of the country very nearly evenly split:

@ConArtCritic

Gallup survey of party affiliation pref for 1-21 Oct: Dem 34.3% GOP 34.1% Ind 31.6%

CAC's conclusion: It's not D+7, or 6, or 5, or 4, or 3, or 2, or even 1 anymore. It's D+0. It's all even.


Meanwhile, ARG posted a New Hampshire poll showing Romney up by two points.

Rasmussen: Romney 50, Obama 46 (see update at post's end).

Rasmussen Swing States Only: Romney 50, Obama 45.

This is now the third time Romney has hit the 50% mark in the combined swing states in the past four days and is the biggest lead either candidate has held in nearly three weeks.

Fact Check: Romney was Pants On Fire wrong about the 47%. It's more like 45%.

Nate Silver just emailed to say Obama's odds of winning improved to 640%, which means that, in addition to winning the election, Obama now has a good shot of being crowned King of the Third French Empire and the next Celebrity Apprentice.


Posted by: Ace at 01:37 PM



Comments

1 YES

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 23, 2012 01:38 PM (zLp5I)

2 Is there a Ohio poll due soon?

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 23, 2012 01:38 PM (zLp5I)

3 Anyone here?

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (zLp5I)

4 Isn't a 1% change just statistical noise? Ras and Gallup are identical.

Posted by: Tami at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (X6akg)

5 Begin to Fap I will...

Posted by: Obi Wan Cannoli at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (f95vc)

6 Pathetic, TFG still can't break 46...

But Romney is losing guys, really. Because Ohio

Posted by: Highsmith at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (uwaMU)

7
Oh nice. Ace did a poll post.

That was . . . . easy.

Posted by: meh at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (W2qJe)

8
What will the Obama debate bump be like?

Posted by: What at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (jCU3t)

9 MOAR DEBATES!

Posted by: t-bird at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (FcR7P)

10

>>>>Fact Check: Romney was Pants On Fire wrong about the 47%. It's more like 45%.



Posted by: Ace at 01:37 PM


Eh, the actuality is that a lot of the 47% don't even know they can vote, so that's why it's lower than that.

Yes, I'm that cynical of the 47%.




Posted by: WTF at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (Zs83Q)

11 I guess everyone is still beating up on Gerg in the other thread?

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (zLp5I)

12 45 is the new 47

Posted by: Roy at October 23, 2012 01:40 PM (VndSC)

13 Cherrypicking pollsters with obvious Republican skew, even criminal racial suppression. Keep believing, wingnuts!

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:40 PM (rpZo5)

14 4
Isn't a 1% change just statistical noise? Ras and Gallup are identical.


Posted by: Tami at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (X6akg)

The error bars move, meaning it's still possibly a movement.

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 45% more DOOM! at October 23, 2012 01:40 PM (xAtAj)

15 zzz

Posted by: Gerry at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (OY1go)

16 Suck it, Greg.

Perfidious Jesus is on his way out out out.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (ccXZP)

17 13
Cherrypicking pollsters with obvious Republican skew, even criminal racial suppression. Keep believing, wingnuts!


Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:40 PM (rpZo5)

Is this a real Greg?

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 45% more DOOM! at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (xAtAj)

18 @TheRickWilson Someone is polling Oregon. I hear things.

Posted by: Highsmith at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (uwaMU)

19 Note well that these are all quite in line with Hibbs', Pethokoukis' and CU's unrelated mathematical predictions for the election split - which were fairly well in agreement with each other.

Posted by: goy at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (QsFws)

20 But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!

Posted by: In before the troll at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (TIIx5)

21 If this keeps up, some crazy leftard (BIRM) will try to bayonet Ann Romney's horse.

Posted by: Roy at October 23, 2012 01:42 PM (VndSC)

22 I'm just excited about this Dem +7 overweight evaporating to a D +0 before election day.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 23, 2012 01:42 PM (hlUJY)

23 I still maintain Greg is really Greg Sargent. Same dumbass logic and lack of understanding of polling and election.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 23, 2012 01:42 PM (TMB3S)

24 Of course Election Night Chrissy Matthews will have his little chalkboard with the word Oiho Ohio written on it.

He's gonna leave so many tears on it. Sweet, sweet liberal tears as the magic 270 number is reached at about 9:57 EST.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 23, 2012 01:42 PM (feFL6)

25 These are not significant polls. I know this because Greg said so.

Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at October 23, 2012 01:42 PM (JxMoP)

26 I was a Math Major in College for 2 years before I switched to Biology. My head is throbbing like it used to back then.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 23, 2012 01:42 PM (oSFWF)

27 Work like we are three points behind. I want to wipe these prog slime out.
Give money, time or convert the undecided. You future and that of the republic is a stake.

Posted by: deusexmachina at October 23, 2012 01:43 PM (v1tkC)

28 Still only one poll that matters.

*pulls out gun*

Vote or die, bitches.

Posted by: JDTAY at October 23, 2012 01:43 PM (a0nis)

29 Obama better hope Gloria Allred has something damned spectacular.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 23, 2012 01:43 PM (hlUJY)

30 honestly i can't even believe it's this close.
many americans really don't care about (un-authorized) wars, americans on assassination lists , no jobs, govt in their wombs,
taxes going through the roof, debt , govt in their emails..

you know all the things they lied about caring about just a handful of years ago.

Posted by: willow at October 23, 2012 01:43 PM (hX8cq)

31 I don't think that's the real Greg, because it's even over the top for Greg....but the hash is new.


Unless the real Greg has gone full on batshit crazy.....crazier?

Posted by: Tami at October 23, 2012 01:43 PM (X6akg)

32 Obama: 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens' in the Election..... Then go now, resignand do us all favor. Don't go away mad, jusy go away !!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Wall_E at October 23, 2012 01:44 PM (48wze)

33 Of course the new TIPP poll will be Obama ahead by 10.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 23, 2012 01:44 PM (hlUJY)

34 18
@TheRickWilson Someone is polling Oregon. I hear things.

Posted by: Highsmith at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (uwaMU)

There was a WA poll release last last week showing it a 5-% race. Outlier? Maybe.

Posted by: WTF at October 23, 2012 01:44 PM (Zs83Q)

35 Yuck. ARG poll is R+6 sample

Posted by: john g at October 23, 2012 01:44 PM (3PqHz)

36 29
Obama better hope Gloria Allred has something damned spectacular.


Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 23, 2012 01:43 PM (hlUJY)

Yeah, when is she supposed to hork up this October Surprise?

Posted by: joncelli at October 23, 2012 01:44 PM (RD7QR)

37 Folks in Ohio for Romney better drag anyone with a pulse to the polls.

Posted by: marcus at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (GGCsk)

38 I have so much free time in the Obama economy that I can troll you all day.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (fXInK)

39 Yeah, obama is going down in one of them there underwater ships...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (9+ccr)

40 Obama's approval rating is hanging in better than one might expect. To me, it looks like when the coach pats you on the back when pulling you from the game. "Hey kid, you tried."

Posted by: spongeworthy at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (r5w1L)

41 You're all racists! I don't care if there are more republican minorities politicians around the country than democrats! I won't let you cloud my arguments with facts wingnuts!

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (/YJYi)

42 john g @ 35:

Yeah. Did you see that 9% of the Republicans will vote for Obama, vs. 4% of Dems for Romney?

Not wrong, necessarily, but very strange.

Posted by: JPS at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (pI6IY)

43 26 I was a Math Major in College for 2 years before I switched to Biology.

Math witch!

Posted by: rickb223 at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (GFM2b)

44 Of course Election Night Chrissy Matthews will have his little chalkboard with the word Oiho Ohio written on it.

It is a virtual certainty that they will make no "swing state" calls until after the polls close out west.

Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (JxMoP)

45 @35 ARG correctly receives 0 weighting by Nate Silver.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (rpZo5)

46 Cherrypicking pollsters with obvious Republican skew, even criminal racial suppression. Keep believing, wingnuts!
Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:40 PM (rpZo5)

what? Pollsters are only calling white people??

Posted by: Thunderb at October 23, 2012 01:46 PM (Dnbau)

47 New Gerg is getting dumber and dumber right before our very eyes.

It amuses me.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 23, 2012 01:46 PM (aHR5E)

48 I heard the breaking story on Romney is that he use "Grecian Formula". What a deceiving SOB Romney is, unlike Presadent Obammmmmmma !!

Posted by: Wall_E at October 23, 2012 01:46 PM (48wze)

49 Nate Silver is my rock.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:46 PM (fXInK)

50 Nate Silver has no racial hatred, but PECOTA is starting to predict some problems for the Obama Biden rotation next season. All those Ohio polls from yesterday, showing Romney Ryan tied or up, are going to hurt The Model.

Posted by: MTF at October 23, 2012 01:47 PM (B5y+v)

51 >>>I heard the breaking story on Romney is that he use "Grecian Formula".


Funny. Obama uses a Grecian formula for his economic plan.

Posted by: Roy at October 23, 2012 01:47 PM (VndSC)

52 Did you see that 9% of the Republicans will vote for Obama, vs. 4% of Dems for Romney?


It's possible. It might mean that previously-registered Democrats are leaving the party, so are in the "I" or "R" column now.

I'd want to check actual voter registration before I bought that idea, though.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 23, 2012 01:48 PM (bjRNS)

53 We'll build more underwater-going boats!

Posted by: Bathhouse Admiral Barry at October 23, 2012 01:48 PM (FcR7P)

54 For an atheist Ace's faith in polls is abiding.

Posted by: tasker at October 23, 2012 01:48 PM (r2PLg)

55 Apparently New Gerg is unaware that its predecessor informed us that Ras was the only poll we should pay attention to.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 23, 2012 01:48 PM (aHR5E)

56 Nate Silver gives higher weightings to older polls that show Obama with a big lead instead of more recent polls showing Romney leading or tied. And rightly so. Anything else would be racist.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:48 PM (/YJYi)

57 Obama better hope Gloria Allred has something damned spectacular.>>

Allred's lady parts are anything but spectacular and I know all about them.

Posted by: The Baseball Bat at October 23, 2012 01:48 PM (tf9Ne)

58 @46 Gallup admitted to their racism, thanks to Mr. Axelrod bravely standing up to their malfeasance, and said they would 'fix' their results.

Gallup should be blackballed. A complete joke of a pollster these days.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:48 PM (rpZo5)

59 "It is a virtual certainty that they will make no "swing state" calls until after the polls close out west."


Or, as they say in Chicago: It's a lead-pipe cinch.

Posted by: mrp at October 23, 2012 01:49 PM (HjPtV)

60 All those Ohio polls from yesterday, showing Romney Ryan tied or up, are going to hurt The Model.

The Model is infallible. It's the data that's wrong.

Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at October 23, 2012 01:49 PM (JxMoP)

61 Need to see some Ohio data. If Romney takes Ohio, it is all over for Obama. If Obama takes it, Romney has to pull upsets in places like Wisconsin.

It all boils down to that big queer state OIHO!

Posted by: wooga at October 23, 2012 01:49 PM (vjyZP)

62 But these numbers are going start turning obamas way after that magnificent debate performance last night


new and unimproved Greg

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 23, 2012 01:49 PM (9+ccr)

63 49 Nate Silver is my rock.
Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:46 PM (fXInK)


______________

I dunno if you want to build you--

Poll Church on that.

When Nate Silver is your Peter...

Posted by: tasker at October 23, 2012 01:49 PM (r2PLg)

64 Gallup admitted to their racism, thanks to Mr. Axelrod bravely standing
up to their malfeasance, and said they would 'fix' their results.

---

Sucking up to the boss, eh, New Gerg?

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 23, 2012 01:49 PM (aHR5E)

65 The U-boat is back and we will dominate the English Channel and cut off shipping lanes to Estnoia. So take that America.......

Posted by: Vice Admiral Barry The Obama of Gay Pride NAVY at October 23, 2012 01:50 PM (48wze)

66 Obama better hope Gloria Allred has something damned spectacular.
---
And that pair better be more spectacular than Kate Upton's. Otherwise, I ain't looking.

Posted by: CUS at October 23, 2012 01:50 PM (84pE9)

67 Is this a real Greg?Posted by: HoboJerky

If ya have to ask, probably best not to respond to it.

All trolls yadda-yadda...

Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 23, 2012 01:50 PM (DKxu1)

68 @53

Will you hire more corpsemen?

Posted by: JDTAY at October 23, 2012 01:50 PM (a0nis)

69
Intrade has Obama at 58.5 and Romney at 41.7.

Posted by: rd does not believe the MSM at October 23, 2012 01:50 PM (zLp5I)

70 I find Greg's desperate flop sweats darkly amusing, like the backpackers in Hostel after they figure out they're never going to leave.

Posted by: Elite Hunting Club at October 23, 2012 01:51 PM (8/DeP)

71 Will you hire more corpsemen?

---

Corpsemen always vote Democrat.

Corpse women too.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 23, 2012 01:51 PM (aHR5E)

72 This still in:

Polls means jack.

As long as enthusiasm is high, we win.

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 45% more DOOM! at October 23, 2012 01:51 PM (xAtAj)

73 On November 6 he entire MSNBC crew is going to look like Norah O'Donnell did this morning.

Posted by: GatorGirl at October 23, 2012 01:51 PM (Oe0Tl)

74 @44 Unless the state in question is going to Obama.

Posted by: Tired of the SCoaMF at October 23, 2012 01:52 PM (44PWr)

75 Did someone say horses and bayonets?

Posted by: The Polish Cavalry [ now appearing on the Military channel] at October 23, 2012 01:52 PM (Y//vu)

76 It is a virtual certainty that they will make no "swing state" calls until after the polls close out west.

It won't matter for me. There are a couple of props out in California that'll get me voting anyway.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 23, 2012 01:52 PM (bjRNS)

77

Nate Silver just emailed to say Obama's odds of winning improved to
640%, which means that, in addition to winning the election, Obama now
has a good shot of being crowned King of the Third French Empire and the next Celebrity Apprentice


Ah, but will he win on Dancing With the Stars with Reggie Love as his partner?

Posted by: mpfs at October 23, 2012 01:52 PM (iYbLN)

78 If Romney has a 5 point lead in polls that use a 2008 turnout model, we are in landslide territory.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 23, 2012 01:52 PM (HrBwt)

79 20 >> Intrade,

zh has a post up saying that there was a flash crash wherein Romney went from 42% to 48% rapidly, then crashed back to just above 42%.

You're gonna need an upgraded moniker soon.

OT I saw this article linked in the THC this am and it's worth the read -- It's a discussion of the 1979 death of our Afghan ambassador, Adolph Dubs, under the wise leadership of Jimmah C. Link in sig. There are many parallels between JC's and TFG's policies that led to it.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 23, 2012 01:52 PM (ccXZP)

80 It is a virtual certainty that they will make no "swing state" calls until after the polls close out west.

Gotta know how many ballots to find in trunks.

Posted by: HeatherRadish™ at October 23, 2012 01:53 PM (ZKzrr)

81 8
What will the Obama debate bump be like?

Posted by: What at October 23, 2012 01:39 PM (jCU3t)

A ditch.

Posted by: BignJames at October 23, 2012 01:53 PM (j7iSn)

82 Well I think obama will also need some horsies and bayonets because he told us they aren't used anymore. silly. Everyone knows that ,and those underwater ships....

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 23, 2012 01:53 PM (9+ccr)

83 78 If Romney has a 5 point lead in polls that use a 2008 turnout model, we are in landslide territory.

---

At that point, we go from "Will there be a Republican majority in the Senate?" to "How close are we to a filibuster-proof majority?"

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 23, 2012 01:53 PM (e0xKF)

84 Obama: 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens' in the Election
---
When Barky loses, what's the over/under on the divorce filing? I say Halloween.

Posted by: CUS at October 23, 2012 01:53 PM (84pE9)

85
Ya know.....Unicorns are like a 2 for 1 in the horse and bayonet combo.

Just sayin'

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (PHb2k)

86 Because I'm too lazy to look, what's the MOE on Gallup and Ras?

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. We're not worthy. at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (Gk3SS)

87 Barky still sucks, but with 50% more suction!

Posted by: Killerdog at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (kMkiH)

88 I will launch a strategic nuclear strike upon Iran 22 seconds after the election. I will Nuke them to they glow and use their ass's as runway lights for are recovering B-52s. I am Barry "Nuke'em" Obama and I approve of this message ifVlad says it's OK.........

Posted by: 20 Star General Barry The Obama at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (48wze)

89
Barky has released a glossy 20-point Plan for creating jobs...in his second term.

It includes things like...'tax credits for creating manufacturing jobs'.

Now, why didn't he push for these things in 2009 -2010, when he had Dems controlling both houses of Congress?

Posted by: wheatie at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (ipkPX)

90 Gallup should be blackballed. A complete joke of a pollster these days.

Or is the correct term "blueballed"? I don't remember. Whatever the term, I'm off to the glory hole in one of the Santa Monica Beach public restrooms to deal with my "blackball" or "blueball" problem.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (LTbLf)

91 The media and scientist's better be glad this isn't Italy. Cause all their asses would be in jail for failing to predict the coming landslide!

Posted by: Ball of Hate at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (AREf/)

92 The court challenges and UN requests to delay the certification of the election will push past the budget sequestration, the resulting financial calamity and the start of the new middle east war.

Posted by: Felt Wrapper at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (ecmD4)

93 There are a couple of props out in California that'll get me voting anyway.

OT: Yep. WTF do we even have Sacramento for?

Posted by: t-bird at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (FcR7P)

94 But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!


Posted by: In before the troll at October 23, 2012 01:41 PM (TIIx5)

Actually, according to zerohedge, intrade has been all over the place, with Romney as high as 48%

Which is to say, there's still some money to be taken from libtards there.

Posted by: Methos at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (hO9ad)

95 When Barky loses, what's the over/under on the divorce filing? I say Halloween.

---

It depends on how well taken care of the family is by their handlers.

A multi-million dollar oceanfront mansion in Hawaii and a steady income can keep her as Barry's beard for a while.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 23, 2012 01:55 PM (e0xKF)

96 Well, we are certainly seeing that Romney's theory of this election is much more accurate than Obama's theory of this election. Now the only thing left to do is execute the GOTV logistics plan like a sumbitch.

It won't be close. Ohio will go Romney in roughly the same % as the national vote.

We will gain another 8-10 House seats and reach 53 in the Senate. Romney wins by at least 7.

Be not afraid.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at October 23, 2012 01:55 PM (dcoFe)

97 part of this post didn't get posted-- Gallup finds party affiliation now essentially even. D+0. I added that back in.

Posted by: ace at October 23, 2012 01:55 PM (LCRYB)

98 Frank Luntz was just on the Dennis Prager show and said that Ohio traditionally votes Dem during bad economic times. Swell.

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 23, 2012 01:55 PM (gA69l)

99 The question for Nate Silver is only will he break for Romney BEFORE the election is called or after.

Either way, this is his last election cycle because after this one he'll have no credibility.

Posted by: Looking closely at October 23, 2012 01:56 PM (PwGfd)

100 98
Frank Luntz was just on the Dennis Prager show and said that Ohio traditionally votes Dem during bad economic times. Swell.

Frank Luntz is a putz..

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 23, 2012 01:56 PM (9+ccr)

101
Ben Bernake is buying obama shares like crazy on Intrade, just to keep the.... um... inflation down.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 23, 2012 01:56 PM (PHb2k)

102 >>The Model is infallible. It's the data that's wrong.

If the facts do not comport with my theory, then so much the worse for the facts!

Posted by: G.W.F. Hegel at October 23, 2012 01:56 PM (CMbMd)

103 Obama: 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens' in the Election

1. Oh, so it's not urgent? Ok...
2. Your well-being is what this election is all about.
3. Fuck off already!

Posted by: t-bird at October 23, 2012 01:56 PM (FcR7P)

104 30 honestly i can't even believe it's this close.
many americans really don't care about (un-authorized) wars, americans on assassination lists , no jobs, govt in their wombs,
taxes going through the roof, debt , govt in their emails..

you know all the things they lied about caring about just a handful of years ago.
Posted by: willow at October 23, 2012 01:43 PM (hX8cq)


This x 1000

Posted by: The Jade Sea at October 23, 2012 01:56 PM (R2OQn)

105 Has Greg stopped by on this thread to tell us how this is great news for Obama?

'Cause I want to make sure I don't miss that.


Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 23, 2012 01:57 PM (sbV1u)

106 I don't know how Gerg stands it. So much semen to gargle, so little time. We are honored he takes time out from his paste eating to come and breath some dick breath on us.

Posted by: maddogg at October 23, 2012 01:57 PM (OlN4e)

107 100 98
Frank Luntz was just on the Dennis Prager show and said that Ohio traditionally votes Dem during bad economic times. Swell.

Frank Luntz is a putz.

---

Hey, don't disparage our models!

Posted by: Voodoo pollsters at October 23, 2012 01:57 PM (e0xKF)

108 Frank Luntz was just on the Dennis Prager show and said that Ohio traditionally votes Dem during bad economic times. Swell.

---

Well, no problem then. 7.8%, remember?

Posted by: New Fake Gerg at October 23, 2012 01:57 PM (aHR5E)

109 A 1% drop in this case is marginally good news. Since Gallup has been the biggest outlier, they are the most likely to revert toward the mean. Thus, being that a drop is expected, a small one is not bad news (and can even reflect improved standing).

Posted by: Benjamin Morris at October 23, 2012 01:57 PM (eIfrn)

110 Because I'm too lazy to look, what's the MOE on Gallup and Ras?

Gallup = 2%, Ras = 3%

Posted by: Elite Hunting Club at October 23, 2012 01:57 PM (8/DeP)

111 Hmm, it seems there was a bounce towards Obama after last night's debate.

Hear that? That's Ohio saying no they will not be voting in Romney.

Ace of Spades readers meet reality: this election will be a heart-breaker for you.

Posted by: greg at October 23, 2012 01:57 PM (s2fu6)

112 Obama is currently ahead 18 points on Intrade. I wouldn't be surprised if Romney is using his filthy millions to skew numbers there.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 01:58 PM (rpZo5)

113 Should have bought Intrade stock when Romney was at 20%...

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 45% more DOOM! at October 23, 2012 01:58 PM (xAtAj)

114 Frank Luntz is a putz..

Agreed, but he's not the issue here. Ohio is. I don't trust them to vote the right way

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 23, 2012 01:58 PM (gA69l)

115 WTF do we even have Sacramento for? Posted by: t-bird at October 23, 2012 01:54 PM (FcR7P)

Someone has to soak up all that spare cash floating around out there.

You weren't expecting them to let you keep it.....were you?

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 23, 2012 01:58 PM (sbV1u)

116 @98 That's horse-shit. Ohio voted almost a complete sweep statewide of Dems in 2006 and the exact opposite in 2010. The economy was substantially better in 2006 than 2010 in Ohio.

There is a media Narrative confusion right now that will last for about 36 hours. "Do we go with it's still close or do we go with Romney is expanding lead? Which will draw more eyeballs?"

That's all that Luntz shit is.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at October 23, 2012 01:58 PM (dcoFe)

117 On Intrade Romney has made up all the ground he lost during the debate last night. Back up to 42%.

Posted by: Benjamin Morris at October 23, 2012 01:58 PM (eIfrn)

118 Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 23, 2012 01:55 PM (gA69l)

Luntz is a DUNCE!

Posted by: Evilpens at October 23, 2012 01:58 PM (ck76k)

119 Folks in Ohio for Romney better drag anyone with a pulse to the polls.


Posted by: marcus at October 23, 2012 01:45 PM (GGCsk)



Democrats: Advantage us. We don't need our voters to have a pulse

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (1Jaio)

120 Wow, a new New Gerg!

The stoopid keeps getting stoopider!

Posted by: New Fake Gerg at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (aHR5E)

121 Gallup finds party affiliation now essentially even.

Some spokesperson from Gallup was on Fox yesterday claiming that they don't weight polls, they only ask party affiliation as a sort of 'by-the-way' question at the end of the interview. So these numbers are truly in the 'order extra pudding' range.

Posted by: Schrödinger's cat at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (feFL6)

122 Where's the Norah O'Donnell clip?

Posted by: CUS at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (84pE9)

123 98
Frank Luntz was just on the Dennis Prager show and said that Ohio traditionally votes Dem during bad economic times. Swell.


Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 23, 2012 01:55 PM (gA69l)


Well, according to Obama, gas prices indicate the economic times are good.

Posted by: Tami at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (X6akg)

124
I predict that Obama runs for president every single election from now on, becoming the socialist version ofRon Paul in the Democratic Party. Note that running over and over implies losing over and over. He probably won't even get the nomination again.

Part of my theory isbecause he's a pathological liar, and he said this would be his last election. Partly, because he has a cult following.

Posted by: Optimizer at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (R4cjW)

125 Gerg is a twankversatile.

Posted by: Navin R Johnson at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (RRbuy)

126 98 Frank Luntz was just on the Dennis Prager show and said that Ohio traditionally votes Dem during bad economic times. Swell.
I guess Norah and company shouldn't worry about that little focus group thing yesterday then.

Posted by: Roy at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (VndSC)

127 84 Obama: 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens' in the Election ---When Barky loses,what's the over/under on the divorce filing? I say Halloween.

Labor Day.

Posted by: rickb223 at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (GFM2b)

128 "Of course the new TIPP poll will be Obama ahead by 10."

+2 Actually.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Posted by: Bobbertsan at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (UBI7D)

129 @105 I have. But, to repeat.

Gallup's R+1 sample is laughably incorrect, and they have been outed as a racist pollster.

Correct samples are at least D+8.

So, President Obama is currently leading on Gallup, which is probably skewing the result further, by at least 4%.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (rpZo5)

130 Luntz and Greg should have a gay-off. Winner gets a free stomach pump.

Posted by: JDTAY at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (a0nis)

131 I predict that Obama runs for president every single election from now on, becoming the socialist version ofRon Paul in the Democratic Party. Note that running over and over implies losing over and over. He probably won't even get the nomination again.

---

Even in failure, he can't do anything original.

Posted by: Eugene V. Debs at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (e0xKF)

132 funny. Reagan carried Ohio in 1980, when the economy was bad. They did not go dem

Posted by: Thunderb at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (Dnbau)

133 128
"Of course the new TIPP poll will be Obama ahead by 10."

+2 Actually.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx


Posted by: Bobbertsan at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (UBI7D)

Wow...

Posted by: Hello, it's me Donna at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (9+ccr)

134 Obama is my boyfriend and he's totally going to win, no matter what any silly poll says. Unless the poll says he's going to win, in which case it's totally right.

Derp!

Posted by: New Fake Gerg at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (aHR5E)

135 127 84 Obama: 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens' in the Election ---When Barky loses,what's the over/under on the divorce filing? I say Halloween.

Labor Day.

It will turn out they've never been married.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (JVCVF)

136 I predict that Obama runs for president every single
election from now on, becoming the socialist version ofRon Paul in the
Democratic Party. Note that running over and over implies losing over
and over. He probably won't even get the nomination again.

Part
of my theory isbecause he's a pathological liar, and he said this would
be his last election. Partly, because he has a cult following.

Posted by: Optimizer at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (R4cjW)

Never happen. Running is too much like work, and the Press drops their messiahs as soon as they have feet of clay for the next hope.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (z1N6a)

137 ARG NH poll, the sample may not include enough indies, but in 2008Obama did win the crossovers, but he won the indies 59-39. In this poll Obama is TIED with Romney with Indies. That isunderperforming by 20 points in a state he won by 9.

Posted by: perdogg at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (oSdsj)

138 116
@98 That's horse-shit. Ohio voted almost a complete sweep statewide of
Dems in 2006 and the exact opposite in 2010. The economy was
substantially better in 2006 than 2010 in Ohio.


I hope it is, but do we have a lot of evidence that Ohio won't go for the jackass? If so, I'm not seeing enough yet. If Ohio is close, then fraud becomes a factor.

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (gA69l)

139
Moreover, Obama lacked the discipline to resist taking small, cheap,
unpresidential shots at Romney. The worst of these was his wisecrack
about the military not needing lots of ships, just as it doesn’t need
many horses and bayonets. The opportunity to sound clever, and to talk
down to Romney in such a snide way, struck Obama as too good to pass up.


Unfortunately for the president, Romney had already shown that the
Navy wants more ships than Obama is providing. So Obama was really
talking down to the Navy as much as to Romney.

With this one piece of indiscipline, Obama probably kissed Virginia’s
electoral votes goodbye. But Virginia already seemed to be slipping
away. More importantly, so is Obama’s image as a presidential figure.

Posted by: Gunnery Sgt. Tom 'Gunny' Highway at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (e8kgV)

140 130 Luntz and Greg should have a gay-off. Winner gets a free stomach pump.

And turns it down.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (JVCVF)

141 130
Luntz and Greg should have a gay-off. Winner gets a free stomach pump.

Posted by: JDTAY at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (a0nis)

...I got a guy that the winner can go to. Just met me know

Posted by: Rod Stewart at October 23, 2012 02:02 PM (RRbuy)

142 OT: Yep. WTF do we even have Sacramento for?

Oh, yeah. Don't get me started.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at October 23, 2012 02:02 PM (bjRNS)

143 You wingnutz are so pwned and screwed.
Hahahahahahaha

Posted by: Whistling past the graveyard Greg at October 23, 2012 02:02 PM (jfWE9)

144 Someone is polling NJ as well today. I'm guessing Gallup because they are asking about voting habits, etc.

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:02 PM (hjRtO)

145 I hope it is, but do we have a lot of evidence that
Ohio won't go for the jackass? If so, I'm not seeing enough yet. If Ohio
is close, then fraud becomes a factor.


Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 23, 2012 02:01 PM (gA69l)

The polls are already fradulent. If Ohio was a Dem+8 state, neither O nor Romney would be there at this time.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2012 02:02 PM (z1N6a)

146 Greg you are a waste of human flesh. Have you ever been to Eastern Europe and see the effects of socialism? I have been to a lot shit holes around the world and you cannot imagine the sadness I have seen from socialism/communism/dictators. You sit there and hope Obama wins without considering the effects on your family, children or the future of the country. You treat freedom as a punchline to pick up Homo's at a Washington, DC party. Why don't you move to the Castro or Chavez paradises and just STFU !!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Wall_E at October 23, 2012 02:02 PM (48wze)

147 130
Luntz and Greg should have a gay-off. Winner gets a free stomach pump.


They could compare yellow teeth . . .

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (gA69l)

148 124
I predict that Obama runs for president every single election from now on, becoming the socialist version ofRon Paul in the Democratic Party. Note that running over and over implies losing over and over. He probably won't even get the nomination again.

Part of my theory isbecause he's a pathological liar, and he said this would be his last election. Partly, because he has a cult following.
Posted by: Optimizer at October 23, 2012 01:59 PM (R4cjW)

And we should encourage Obama to run... great way to drain off votes from the Dems

Posted by: The Robot Devil at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (136wp)

149 Have you ever been to Eastern Europe

Funny you should ask ....

Posted by: Elite Hunting Club at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (8/DeP)

150 126/98 - Actually Ford, Reagan, and Bushoverperformed in Ohio in 1976, 1980, and 1992relative to their national percentages.

Posted by: perdogg at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (oSdsj)

151 @145 Obama wins Ohio, and the election is over. Period. Sounds like a simple strategy to me.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (rpZo5)

152 Undecided unicorns are breaking for Romney.

Posted by: The Peasants at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (dzCcw)

153 128 "Of course the new TIPP poll will be Obama ahead by 10."

+2 Actually.

http://news.investors.com/special-report/508415-ibdtipp-poll.aspx

Posted by: Bobbertsan at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (UBI7D)

And that's with a 2008-like D+7 sample. Also, Obama's lead in that poll was actually 6% just a couple of days ago.

Posted by: Slappy at October 23, 2012 02:04 PM (LTbLf)

154 IBD/TIPP grade from 2008 D

Posted by: Evilpens at October 23, 2012 02:04 PM (ck76k)

155 135 127 84 Obama: 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens' in the Election ---When Barky loses,what's the over/under on the divorce filing? I say Halloween.

Labor Day.

It will turn out they've never been married.

Oooh. Not heads nor tails. Edge of the coin. Well played sir. Well played.

Posted by: rickb223 at October 23, 2012 02:04 PM (GFM2b)

156 Obama wins Ohio, and the election is over. Period. Sounds like a simple strategy to me.


Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (rpZo5)

If I had a billion dollars, my financial worries would also be over. A simple strategy.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2012 02:04 PM (z1N6a)

157 Gallup should be blackballed. A complete joke of a pollster these days.
==============
You know why that is so stupid and funny?

Because Gallup does a lot of consumer and customer surveys. I dare say that's their bread and butter, where they make most of their money. Hell, my wife got a call from Gallup and it was on behalf of Wells Fargo.

The political stuff is the hook to get corporations to hire them, gets them name recognition, an accuracy reputation and all that.

Presidents may come and go but, they have a lot of contracts worth millions that would be canceled on November 7th if they blow this--or any--election.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 23, 2012 02:04 PM (imtbm)

158 It will turn out they've never been married.
---
Sushi and malaria hardest hit. So their marriage cert. is as real as her lawyering creds.

Posted by: CUS at October 23, 2012 02:05 PM (84pE9)

159 I want to see the h8ters polled. In Ohio.

Hamilton county is gonna do it for the Mittster. Over the finish line by 11:00 pm.

Betcha Zero never calls Mitt with congrats. You could read the h8t in his every tic last night. Mr Likeable, my ass.

Posted by: The littl shyning man at October 23, 2012 02:05 PM (PH+2B)

160 130: "Luntz and Greg should have a gay-off. Winner gets a free stomach pump."

I thought that would be covered under ObamaCare. That's the whole reason why I supported it.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:05 PM (LTbLf)

161 with his comments about the military last night, the JEF can kiss goodbye VA and CO.

Posted by: Thunderb at October 23, 2012 02:05 PM (Dnbau)

162 Gallup's R+1 sample is laughably incorrect, and they have been outed as a racist pollster. Correct samples are at least D+8. Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:00 PM (rpZo5)

These scientific pollsters understand the simple fact that Obama Romney changed the landscape in '08 last night. People jumped to the Democrat Republican party in droves. This will have a long-lasting effect in all elections.

Sorry, it's just easier and faster to cut-paste and recycle Gerg's old posts.

I'm all about efficiency.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 23, 2012 02:06 PM (sbV1u)

163 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens'

Those are the words of a loser. One of the best things about beating Obama will be his having to endure the humiliation of being a one-termer especially when he really tried and shit.

Posted by: Elite Hunting Club at October 23, 2012 02:06 PM (8/DeP)

164 All you other Gregs are just imitatin'!

Posted by: The Real Greg at October 23, 2012 02:06 PM (aKt3y)

165 126/98 - Actually Ford, Reagan, and Bushoverperformed in Ohio in 1976, 1980, and 1992relative to their national percentages.





Posted by: perdogg at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (oSdsj)

Ohio is a swing state that shades a bit GOP overall. No real evidence that this has changed, especially now. I wouldn't buy a "Romney by 10" or an "Obama by 10" result, ever.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2012 02:06 PM (z1N6a)

166 157

Presidents may come and go but, they have a lot of contracts worth millions that would be canceled on November 7th if they blow this--or any--election.

Posted by: RoyalOil at October 23, 2012 02:04 PM (imtbm)

"Blow this"? Please go on. I'm intrigued.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:07 PM (LTbLf)

167 @157 Gallup blew the '10 election by nearly 10 points. They've lost affiliations with CNN and other networks in recent years. That's what happens when you're racist and partisan.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:07 PM (rpZo5)

168 Have you ever been to Eastern Europe and see the effects of socialism? I have been to a lot shit holes around the world and you cannot imagine the sadness I have seen from socialism/communism/dictators.
--
Spot on. I have spent quite a bit of time in FSU countries, and two things stick out in my mind: that they are 40 years behind us in every convenience, and that they relish their new-found opportunity to catch up, now that the dictators are gone.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 23, 2012 02:07 PM (HrBwt)

169
Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
Et tu, Gawker? That's gonna need some ice. RT @KevinMaddenDC: Oof. - gaw.kr/SnkhKw

Posted by: Evilpens at October 23, 2012 02:08 PM (ck76k)

170 Another corruption shoe has dropped.

Apparently Biden's brother received a major contract to construct 100,000 homes in Iraq in partnership with a South Korean company.

James Biden, nor his company, have any kind of history doing this kind of construction or working with foreign firms, yet they're about to cash in on hundreds of millions of dollars as part of this.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 23, 2012 02:08 PM (e0xKF)

171 My prediction is that after his presidency, Obama shows up a lot in third world nations with questionable leadership as a 'goodwill' ambassador for the intelligentsia of the UN set. He'll be a permanent fixture badmouthing the US and its policies.

On the home front, he will comment frequently and often about politics. I give it a 50-50 chance the media always covers him, still fanatics to the fallen god.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at October 23, 2012 02:08 PM (TpXEI)

172
I love Ace...Gallup Obama gained one...not really...one day he could be 45.2 the next day 45.6....Gallup rounds up or down....

Bigger story on Ace should be Rasmussen with Romney 50/46 and 50/45....Gallup has the 7 day which will have a couple days that help Obama but I would be very surprised if Obama gets above 47 percent...more likely the 46/45 percent.

But if CAC is right...then those plus 5 Dems that Gallup and Ras are using is not accurate and Romney has a bigger lead then thought!

Story of Race will be how Badly thePolls oversampled Dems and Undersampled Repubs!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 23, 2012 02:09 PM (HDcKc)

173 163 Those are the words of a loser. One of the best things about beating Obama will be his having to endure the humiliation of being a one-termer especially when he really tried and shit.

That. And seeing the Wookie no longer proud of her country.

Posted by: rickb223 at October 23, 2012 02:09 PM (GFM2b)

174 @145 Obama wins Ohio, and the election is over. Period. Sounds like a simple strategy to me.
Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:03 PM (rpZo5)

Most things sound simple to you

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 23, 2012 02:10 PM (nTgAI)

175 We need better trolls.

Posted by: MrShad at October 23, 2012 02:10 PM (Xqfwb)

176 My prediction is that after his presidency, Obama shows up a lot in third world nations with questionable leadership as a 'goodwill' ambassador for the intelligentsia of the UN set. He'll be a permanent fixture badmouthing the US and its policies.

On the home front, he will comment frequently and often about politics. I give it a 50-50 chance the media always covers him, still fanatics to the fallen god.
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at October 23, 2012 02:08 PM (TpXEI)


this. urgghhh

Posted by: Thunderb at October 23, 2012 02:11 PM (Dnbau)

177

·
The Tipping Point
passed weeks ago; the Polls are either compromised, purchased, or simply
lagging in accuracy.

The Pollster
Whores “do not get it”The Presstitutes
"do not get it"

The
Media Whores "do not get it"

The
White House "does not get it"

The
co-conspirators, fellow traitors, evil minions, hidden financial backers,
armies of zombies, or general bad, STARS, idiots, etc. for BO BO "do not
get it"

There
is nothing, nothing, that Obama and his supporters can do to get him re-elected
at this time. A "perfect storm" of suddenly revealed truths; damning
historical events; patently visible falsehoods and lies; irreconcilable acts
and statements and pushed us PAST THE TIPPING POINT aka "POINT OF NO
RETURN TO BO BO" weeks ago.

Yes,
the Presstitutes will claim that "truth is falsity and lies are
truth"

Yes, so-called "POLLS" will grossly misrepresent public sentiment

Yes, there will be widespread voter fraud

Yes, vast FORTUNES shall be spent illegally and secretly to attempt to re-elect
the tyrant.

Yes, there shall be OUTRAGEOUS DISTRACTIONS; UNENDING LIES; IMPOSSIBLE TO
BELIEVE REPORTS (Mother gives birth to 10 at once, each child, upon leaving womb
cries: "Re-elect Obama")

Posted by: Russell Hicks at October 23, 2012 02:11 PM (FpgMo)

178 Some are not factoring in the "hate" of 1000 suns for Obumbles

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 23, 2012 02:11 PM (nTgAI)

179 Great to see Mitt holding at 51 percent on Gallup and reaching 50 at Ras...I will bet it is closer to 54 percent when the right partisan sample comes to play on election day! Gallup is picking it up...Ras has had plus 4 Reps for a while but neither has adjusted their samples to reflect. I wonder if they will by election day!...LOL!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 23, 2012 02:11 PM (HDcKc)

180 170, that's the rats cashing in before jumping

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:11 PM (ytax8)

181 Sorry, not formatting for me.

Posted by: Russell Hicks at October 23, 2012 02:11 PM (FpgMo)

182 Let the First Grifters move to Hawaii. The further they are from the mainland the better.

Posted by: mpfs at October 23, 2012 02:12 PM (iYbLN)

183 slop! all fucking slop. where is the nyt msnbc poll showing the landslide?

Posted by: coldwarrior at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (fpL1+)

184
"Can you imagine your fate being in the hands of Gloria Allred ? "
Been there - done that.
Shudder.

Posted by: one poor old baseball bat at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (hqKI2)

185
I'm supposed to be working. Are those poll results using a D+0 or are we saying that the actual split is D+0 and yet the polls are still oversampling the Dems. Clarify for me please so I can go back to not working.

Posted by: California Red at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (Ho3p+)

186 Hi The littl shyning man. How's Jay?

Posted by: Sophistahick at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (UhXzR)

187 Sadly, the recession will not be officially over until we lay off one more minority with no marketable job skills.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (HrBwt)

188 RETWEET HATE.

THE VILE LEFT'S EVIL HAS NO BOUNDARIES. AS DESPERATION SETS IN THEIR TRUE COLORS ARE REVEALED.

MIA LOVE HAS THIS MESSAGE FOR THEM: BRING IT!


Police have launched an investigation after a “packet of information” that local city officials described as racist was sent to Utah Republican congressional candidate Mia Love’s office in Saratoga Springs, The Deseret News reports.

Love made a splash with her rousing address at the Republican National Convention last month, cementing her place as a rising star in the GOP. She is also trying to become the first black GOP congresswoman in U.S. history.

Unfortunately, her new-found fame has also made her a target.

An unknown suspect reportedly sent an envelope full of pictures to her office, including photos of aborted fetuses, a photo of Love and her husband Jason and a photo of a Ku Klux Klan member wearing a hood, The Deseret News reports.

When asked about the envelope filled with hate, Love provided a confident and firm response:

“I want you to know, I want everyone to know I am comfortable in my skin. I’m comfortable and proud of my heritage. I’m proud of who I am. I know where I’m going and I know what we need to do to get this country back in order again. There isn’t anything that anyone can send me that will distract me from that so they can bring it,” she said.

Posted by: Evilpens at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (ck76k)

189 Allred's lady parts are anything but spectacular and I know all about them.

Rachel Madcow's "lady parts," OTOH. . .

Posted by: The Chicken at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (zF6Iw)

190 Obama wins Ohio, and the election is over. Period. Sounds like a simple strategy to me.

You know what else sound simple? Sucking a half dozen golf balls through a 10-foot garden hose. I just did it again last night to improve my ... er, breathing. Yeah, that's it.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:13 PM (LTbLf)

191 Ace just stomped himself.

Posted by: Whoever this is, it's definitely not Michael at October 23, 2012 02:14 PM (JVCVF)

192 Really guys, you all think this election is a lock, but it's not that simple. There is a very real possibility (more than just a possibility) that Obama will take Ohio. This significantly lowers the chances of a Romney re-election.

You might think: "Wah, Obama is so terrible," but you aren't everybody.

The fact is: While the polls are tightening, they have not tightened enough to ensure a Romney victory and still point to a close, but definite Obama win.

My guess is Ohio is already significantly hardened on both sides in terms of support. There will not be much change there. Obama will win and with it the presidency.

Have fun election night.

Posted by: greg at October 23, 2012 02:15 PM (s2fu6)

193 The Presstitutes
"do not get it"

The
Media Whores "do not get it"


Hence the shocked look from Norah this morning. Her little world is crashing down around her.

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:15 PM (hrAg/)

194
# 36:

Yeah, when is she supposed to hork up this October Surprise?

I think there are two possibilities here.

1. There is no surprise. This is a manufactured leak designed to plant the seed of doubt about Romney in voters minds.....and carefully non-denial denied by Gloria Allred in such a way as to make it seem legitimate, without her, the DNC, or OFA having to lay their cards out on the table. Every now and then, between now and the election, it will be hinted that the story is out there, and nothing more will ever come of it.

2. Something incredibly weak...and very old. Gloria will save this bomb until the last minute, hoping to knock a point or two off Romney's numbers just before the election, while ensuring his campaign does not have enough time to effectively respond, and refute whatever allegations she's managed to manufacture. I would suspect this will revolve around some alleged wrong Romney has committed against a female employee, or female congregation member....in order to further the fantasy War On Lady Parts all conservatives are guilty of.


My money's on #2. It fits the hook nosed shyster's usual MOP.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 23, 2012 02:15 PM (L7hol)

195 Hahaha. Sandra Fluke sent out an email blaming 'extreme Republicans' doing 'anything to keep me from speaking out' for her poor turnout results in Reno. All 10 of them.

Did I say poor turnout? I meant insignificant. Hey Sandy, try advertising you'll show your tits next time -- that ought to get your crowd up to 20.

email is up at WZ

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 23, 2012 02:16 PM (ccXZP)

196 Let the First Grifters move to Hawaii. The further they are from the mainland the better.

...for the mainland. Can't imagine what the Obama Touch will do to Oahu.

Posted by: t-bird at October 23, 2012 02:16 PM (FcR7P)

197 185. The latter. Go back to work with a smile.

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:17 PM (hrAg/)

198 polls arent tightening they are widening. For Romney. I like your new hash by the way. Looks like it say STFU. You will election night

Posted by: Thunderb at October 23, 2012 02:17 PM (Dnbau)

199 Gallup survey of party affiliation pref for 1-21 Oct: Dem 34.3% GOP 34.1% Ind 31.6%

Dem +7 samples? Not so much.

With likely voters looks more like R +3.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 23, 2012 02:17 PM (hlUJY)

200 My boyfriend Obama is going to win because he's done such an awesome job both domestically (7.8, bitches!) and internationally (except for that video which is totally not his fault). Plus he's so rugged and manly.

Derp!

Posted by: New Fake Gerg at October 23, 2012 02:17 PM (aHR5E)

201 Read the link I attached - The best part is where F.Chuck Todd says Obama's numbers are collapsing

Posted by: Janetoo at October 23, 2012 02:17 PM (/TVdO)

202 And the preference cascade has begun.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 23, 2012 02:18 PM (hlUJY)

203 Shut up, Greg! You're not fooling anybody by pretending to be me!

Posted by: The Real Greg at October 23, 2012 02:19 PM (aKt3y)

204 203: "Shut up, Greg! You're not fooling anybody by pretending to be me!"

No, you shut up, you phony impersonator!!!

Posted by: The Real Real Greg at October 23, 2012 02:20 PM (LTbLf)

205 Ace, I love the Greg sock puppet as much as the next moron. He is a great gag and a fantastic parody, but I think he is getting a little old now.

He is just a sock puppet right? That can't really be a real person? Can it?

Posted by: gulfkraken at October 23, 2012 02:20 PM (WBfjO)

206 Allred's is looking to save a Senate seat or two at this point. If it was good, it would have been deployed in a manner that forced Mitt to address it in person during the debates. So it is some weak shit.

Trump however, might kick over something that snowballs with 'Pub control of both Houses. I'm hoping he highlights the donation issue.

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:21 PM (hrAg/)

207 @gulfkraken

Why can't I be real? I am just trying to be a realist.

This is a close election and the debates have only made it closer. Romney still faces a tough task, albeit not an impossible one.

The sooner you realize this the better. I don't want a bunch of you committing suicide on election night because your fantastical assumptions about the outcome happen to be proven wrong.

Posted by: greg at October 23, 2012 02:22 PM (s2fu6)

208 Also, you should all pop on over to Jen Rubins thread at the WaPo. Apparently nobody has been killed with a bayonet since the American Revolution. The libtards are big on history.

Posted by: gulfkraken at October 23, 2012 02:23 PM (WBfjO)

209 84 Obama: 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens' in the Election ---When Barky loses,what's the over/under on the divorce filing? I say Halloween.

Election Night.

Posted by: Mary Poppins' Practically Perfect Piercing at October 23, 2012 02:23 PM (zF6Iw)

210 205: "Ace, I love the Greg sock puppet as much as the next moron. He is a great gag and a fantastic parody, but I think he is getting a little old now.

He is just a sock puppet right? That can't really be a real person? Can it?"

Old? I'm only 22 years old, pal. Just for that remark, don't expect top-notch treatment from me if you stop by my glory hole.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2012 02:24 PM (LTbLf)

211 Come on Ace that isn't funny! They make medication for this if you really need help.

Posted by: gulfkraken at October 23, 2012 02:24 PM (WBfjO)

212 I don't want a bunch of you committing suicide on election night because
your fantastical assumptions about the outcome happen to be proven
wrong.

---

BWAH-HA-HA-HA!!! Projection much?

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 23, 2012 02:24 PM (aHR5E)

213 I used to have a link to a list of poll closing times, and network calls for last several elections, but it has gone AWOL thru several OS changes. Anyone have a link, my google touch is off today.

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:24 PM (hrAg/)

214 I think those party affiliation numbers are the story of the day. Here's why:

Party Affiliation just before 2004 election:

10/22-24/2004: R 46, D 49

Party Affiliation just before 2006 midterms (when Dems took Congress):

10/20-22/2006: R 39, D 54

Party Affiliation just before 2008 election:

10/10-12/2008: R 41, D 52
10/23-26/2008: R 45, D 48
11/7-9/2008: R 40, D 51
(I include all 3 because it appears the 10/23-26 number showed a tightening that didn't really exist)

Party Affiliation just before 2010 midterms:

10/21-24/2010: R 43, D 45
10/28-31/2010: R 43, D 44

When party affiliation is close, with Dems just a little ahead, Republicans win.

Posted by: kteemac at October 23, 2012 02:24 PM (pLTLS)

215 So who is an expert NH voting patterns? What would ARG's rationale be for a R +6 poll?

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 23, 2012 02:26 PM (GvYeG)

216 Jesus Christ! I think he might be a real person! And all these years I thought it was just Ace fucking with us!

Posted by: gulfkraken at October 23, 2012 02:26 PM (WBfjO)

217 Muck in yo' mouth
Bitch
Take some water
Gerg.
Gergle
Gergle good
Before you choke.
And I lose
My dearest
Skull pussy
I love to fuck
With my
Herpes

Posted by: "On the DL with Gerg" at October 23, 2012 02:27 PM (qxcKC)

218 Jesus Christ! I think he might be a real person!

---

Well, of course he's real. Axelrod has to send the check to someone.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 23, 2012 02:28 PM (aHR5E)

219 Hunh, Rumsfeld was right, expect the unexpected I guess.

Posted by: gulfkraken at October 23, 2012 02:29 PM (WBfjO)

220 215, reality

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:30 PM (hrAg/)

221 I don't get why 538 is running 70% on Obama. If the nation is Even Ohio is Even. 50/50 is pretty realistic, so unless Silvers has inside information on what Ohio's numbers are, he is just creating Liberal Fantasy Material (For their use with a box of lube).
Of course if Ohio does go Obama, then its a 70% chance Romney loses. Then again if Ohio goes Romney it's a 70% chance Obama loses.

Posted by: miikeb at October 23, 2012 02:31 PM (3hezO)

222 Ok everyone, just to gauge things a bit:

Give me your likelihood of a Romney victory in a percentage 0 to 100.

Mine: 40-45%

Posted by: greg at October 23, 2012 02:33 PM (s2fu6)

223 Apparently nobody has been killed with a bayonet since the American Revolution.

I knew a guy (dead now) who piloted B-29's in the Pacific during the war. His bird had some sort of mechanical problem and was forced to crash land on some little island the Japanese held and dodged Japanese patrols for a month until we arrived...

...he killed a Japanese "soldier" who got too close with a combat knife to keep the noise down.

I put soldier in quotes because Nick almost cried when he told that story. The soldier he had to kill was only about 14 or 15 years old...and that bothered him until his dying day.

When you need quiet, you use the blade...even today.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 23, 2012 02:33 PM (S8edY)

224 Well the key is to take every Obama leaning poll, even older ones, and weigh it at 2+ in my "magical weighting system." And then take every Romney leaning poll and call it around 0.5. Thus in the face of what appears to be a rout, I can project that Obama is, in fact, close or slightly leading, when no recent polling supports it. Then call the weighting differences some BS about "who I trust more." A system I learned from Bob Beckle. Master poster of the second Carter admin.

Posted by: Nate Silver at October 23, 2012 02:35 PM (WBfjO)

225 No one has been killed with a bayonet since the Revolution? Could have fooled me.

Posted by: zombieGettysburgsoldier at October 23, 2012 02:36 PM (9zugO)

226 215 So who is an expert NH voting patterns? What would ARG's rationale be for a R +6 poll?

Posted by: Honey Badger at October 23, 2012 02:26 PM (GvYeG)

http://elections.gmu.edu/Registration_2008G.html

According to the George Mason University site at the URL above, the party registration in NH in 2004 was R+7.8% (53.9%-46.1%), with Independents comprising 42% of the total electorate (vs. 31.2% of Republicans and 26.7% of Democrats). 2008 was pretty much a dead even turnout among the two political parties, with Independents comprising the vast majority of the electorate.

NH is pretty much a state driven by the votes of Independents, which probably isn't good news for Obama considering how he's losing the Independent vote to Romney in most national and state polls.

Posted by: Slappy at October 23, 2012 02:40 PM (LTbLf)

227 100%.

When Romney wins, the economy will be so good, I won't feel bad about kicking Gerg out of the basement for not having a job.

I'm a sucker for a man in uniform*.

*Gerg honey, that's a hint. Heads your sweet ass down to the Waffle House for the application process.

Posted by: Gerg's mom at October 23, 2012 02:41 PM (qxcKC)

228 Last US bayonet charge was on Korea, I think some Brits did one recently. Individual bayonet use is still a tactical reality. Still preferable to shoot them.

Posted by: Jean at October 23, 2012 02:41 PM (g2ldK)

229 Silver continues to predict the Yankees will win the world series, with Arod as MVP

Posted by: standfast24 at October 23, 2012 02:44 PM (s4wkw)

230
The idea is, when any Greg posts, we all sock Greg.

1. Greg posts
2. All sock Greg.
3. Chaos!

Posted by: Meremortal at October 23, 2012 02:54 PM (1Y+hH)

231 #163 - 'Michelle and I Will Be Fine No Matter What Happens'

"Those are the words of a loser. One of the best things about beating Obama will be his having to endure the humiliation of being a one-termer especially when he really tried and shit."

Obama will be joining the Jimmah' Carter "Failed One Term Loser Bitter Ex-Presidents Lecture Tour", appearing in dives and small bookstores to dopes like Greg who just can't believe the country rejected his awesomeness.

Meanwhile, Romney and Ryan will set up another 20 year period of growth by undoing all the big spending and big government idiocy from the Bush II, and Pelosi-Reid-Oblamer era, educating the electorate again on why its sheer idiocy to vote for today's progressive radicals...

Good times ahead.

Posted by: The Epic Failure is about to be busted back to private at October 23, 2012 03:09 PM (s/LRq)

232 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 23, 2012 03:22 PM (6o4Fb)

233 I've read that many wounds treated after hand-to-hand combat in Vietnam involved cuts to the wrist/forearm. Reason? They fixed bayonets, but in the heat of battle, caveman brain takes over and the rifle is swung like a club, gripped by the muzzle end of the barrel.

Posted by: Taro Tsujimoto at October 23, 2012 03:35 PM (celt+)

234 Obama will be joining the Jimmah' Carter "Failed One Term Loser Bitter Ex-Presidents Lecture Tour"
--

It would actually be pretty funny to see them together. I wonder if they like each other, anyone know?

Chances are, they'll be fighting over who gets to go to the latest commie hotspot to cause trouble.

I almost feel sorry for Bill Clinton, having those two yahoos in the ex-Dem prez club with him.

Posted by: Mayday at October 23, 2012 03:51 PM (F3s39)

235 See, I'm realizing what we have before it's gone. Which is rare. I will miss Greg. Who else, day in and day out, could put on their blinders and trudge through the enemies terriritory spinning poll after poll and telling lie after lie while trying their damndest to pretend they really believe it? I respect your perserverence, Greg.

Posted by: Rich at October 23, 2012 04:05 PM (pnHKr)

236 Illogical .. illogical .. Axelrod ... coordinate! coordinate !!

Posted by: Greg #124 at October 23, 2012 04:37 PM (wwsoB)






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