Pollsters: 1/5 of Ohio Vote Already In! Me: Bull

Knowing PPP would have something wacky, I decided to cut right down to the most absurd point highlighted by the firm: 19% of respondents have already voted and they are breaking 3-1 Obama. That seems to spell certain doom for Romney.

Is it actually true? Have just under a fifth of Ohio voters actually voted?
Facts tend to get in the way of such fantasies.
CUYAHOGA COUNTY (Largest County in the State, overwhelmingly Democrat).
TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS: 928,798 (which, FTR, is down over 180,000 from 2008, and with the registration deadline past in the state, it won't climb from here).

Of this total, 229,794 have requested absentee ballots.
Of this total, 31,233 have returned them, 13.59% of the total requested. Red flag #1.

That total requested accounts for a third of the total number of votes counted in 2008. So fractions of fractions now. Red flag #2.
Assuming lower turnout of 670,000 (closer to 2008 which ironically had fewer votes than 2004), that 31,233 drops to less than 5% of the total vote from the largest county in Ohio. A base county for President Obama and the Democrats. A core part of his Early Vote strategy.
Sure, its just one county, but it is also one of the most Democratic (and as the press meme is going, they have the advantage here), one of the more enthusiastic on voting, and will account for 1 in every 9 ballots cast in Ohio. If we were seeing the levels claimed, we would see it here, and we aren't. Flag #3.

But what about In-Person voting?
Statewide, about 60,000 Ohioans (out of around 8million registered) have voted in-person.

If we are to believe the hype that 18 to 19% of Ohians have already voted as per the surveys from Marist and PPP are claiming, where are the voters? If the Democrats are turning their ballots back in droves, where the hell are they?

Per the SOS' own press release, 1.1 million voters have requested (not submitted, as we see above, that is not the case at all) absentee ballots, and 59,000 have voted in-person. That totals to just around 20% of the 2004/2008 total vote, so on it's face the 18/19% statistic being bounced around and "found" by polling firms like Public Policy Polling could be true, except for two things: counties are still mailing out these requested ballots so it is impossible for those voters to have sent them back; and on the county level the return rate yields a number in the mid-single digits, if that. A third of what PPP and Marist's respondents are claiming.

The smaller the # of respondents for a given question/sub-question, the higher the margin of error. It is how you can wind up with polls giving a Republican 45% of the black vote: if that sample size out of the larger polled group is small, wackiness can ensue. It is why ultimately these subsamples need to be taken with a grain of salt, and not paraded about as significant when the actual numbers on the ground don't match up.

Anyone saying the race is over based on "19% said they already did and PPP said they are breaking 76-24 Obama ELEVENTY OMGZ!" is trolling, and on a very pedestrian level. Want to know how many people have voted? Check the counties themselves, or better yet, for a more concentrated spot of information, check out ningrim's spreadsheet here (requests only).

Beyond the usual smattering of poll junkies and politicos who will gobble and ooze with delight over garbage, any pollster hyping the statistic is either ignorant of the actual statistical numbers reported or they are deliberately pushing a very, very steamy pile.

But nobody would push something that obviously isn't true. That would be the work of a hack, not a reputable pollster.

Posted by: CAC at 04:07 AM



Comments

1 any pollster hyping the statistic is either ignorant of the actual statistical numbers reported or they are deliberately pushing a very, very steamy pile.

My guess is the latter.

Posted by: Clyde Shelton at October 14, 2012 04:11 AM (vUK/h)

2 The GOP is doooooomed I tell you. DOOOOOMED

Posted by: RomneylosesCleveland at October 14, 2012 04:13 AM (8HhF2)

3 And they do it, because they know the American public is too lazy to look into the actual numbers and too ignorant of actual math to understand the actual numbers anyway.

Democrat/liberal strategy for decades... dumb down the public so they will gladly eat any steamy pile of BS fed to them. Worked in 2006 and 2008, we'll see if it works in 2012...

Posted by: Clyde Shelton at October 14, 2012 04:14 AM (vUK/h)

4 Steamy pile of shit - "its what's for dinner".

The desperation is palpable.

Posted by: @PurpAv at October 14, 2012 04:20 AM (a3BqN)

5 Well if more of this BS is fleshed out on the MSM-- then i hope Romney school's the populace- and tells them regardless of what polls say- it is your right to vote as a citizen- dont let anyone try and depress you or make you not want to vote.

Posted by: Saar at October 14, 2012 04:21 AM (VGOSV)

6 Maybe somebody stole the company password, got drunk and posted some snark? Maybe somebody got a pesky decimal point or two in the wrong column?

Posted by: Beto at October 14, 2012 04:23 AM (BAnPT)

7 Maybe people are telling the pollsters that they've voted already thinking that will make the pollsters stop calling them. I imagine lots of Ohioans are sick of the constant campaign ads and polls and traffic problems when campaigners are in town.

Posted by: UpNights at October 14, 2012 04:31 AM (4onRb)

8 WHAT ARE YOU IMPLYING THAT WE ARE PLAYING POLITICS WITH THIS?????

Posted by: Stephanie Cutter Political Strategist, Professional Liar, and Administrations #2 Turd Polisher at October 14, 2012 04:34 AM (ovpNn)

9 Maybe the found those votes in the same the same place they magically found those 800K additional jobs last month????


Posted by: Bureau of Labor Statistics - We Put the L in BS at October 14, 2012 04:36 AM (ovpNn)

10 WHO ARE YOU PEOPLE GONNA BELIEVE ??

YOU GONNA BELIEVE CAC?

OR HONEST JOE!

OSAMABINLADEN IS DEAD GM IS ALIVE RECOVERY SUMMER IS HERE THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE WENT DOWN AND OHIO IS VOTING 3 TO 1 FOR OBAMA WITH 20 PERCENT OF THE VOTE ALREADY COUNTED!

THATS RIGHT FOLKS!

TRUST HONEST JOE!

Posted by: Honest Joe Biden - I Never Tell a LIE! EVAH! at October 14, 2012 04:40 AM (ovpNn)

11 I gotta cram 4 years of my presidency into 4 days of studying....i wonder what i did all that time....


Posted by: Barack Cramming For Finals and Chugging Jolt Cola Obama at October 14, 2012 04:43 AM (ovpNn)

12 Throw me under the bus at your peril Choomboy.

Posted by: Hillary Ratfink Clinton at October 14, 2012 04:45 AM (ovpNn)

13 Barry, you played lots of golf and basketball, so you could talk about that I guess..

Posted by: JarvisW at October 14, 2012 04:45 AM (E7Iyp)

14 Shrill, unleash the Blinton!!

Posted by: JarvisW at October 14, 2012 04:45 AM (E7Iyp)

15
I gotta cram 4 years of my presidency into 4 days of studying....i wonder what i did all that time....


You're still lookin' up when you swing

Posted by: Beto at October 14, 2012 05:04 AM (BAnPT)

16
there is one way in which 19% of ballots could be back, all those ones they found in the trunks of the cars could have been turned in.

ppp is just part of the obama campaign. its a 50 state vote, he needs OH, they must try to get the story out that OH is over.

especially since we already know that FL, VA, NC, CO, NV, WI and ME (1) are already in the bank for Romney.

SWIDT?

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 14, 2012 05:15 AM (PHb2k)

17 Damn CAC, your up early with awesome news.

Posted by: Ragnarok at October 14, 2012 05:19 AM (aIVnF)

18 especially since we already know that FL, VA, NC, CO, NV, WI and ME (1) are already in the bank for Romney.

SWIDT?

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 14, 2012 05:15 AM (PHb2k)


The problem is, that bank is probably run by Corzine.

Fraud WILL happen. We will have to be EXTRA vigilant.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 14, 2012 05:20 AM (sZTYJ)

19 Seems like a crude attempt to convince GOP/indy voters in Ohio that it's useless to bother to vote.

It could also be a sign of a massive vote fraud operation to try to grab the ballots of irregular voters, nursing home residents and the like. How many Ohio voters will go to vote only to discover they had already voted absentee?

Posted by: TooCon at October 14, 2012 05:24 AM (V4YIE)

20 This is the big news you were hyping earlier, CAC? That leftwing pollsters are full of crap and in the tank for Obama? Big news? Good grief.

Posted by: davidinvirginia at October 14, 2012 05:39 AM (qEkGZ)

21 What needs to happen is Mitt Romney needs to go to these places and mention that the dumbocrats are registered and have voted 2 to 1, so when they leave the rally go to the polling station and vote.

Oh, and yeah, the poll is a crock of shit.

Posted by: Up with people! at October 14, 2012 05:50 AM (kzFo5)

22 CUYAHOGA COUNTY (Largest County in the State, overwhelmingly Democrat).
TOTAL REGISTERED VOTERS: 928,798 (which, FTR, is down over 180,000 from 2008, and with the registration deadline past in the state, IT WON'T CLIMB FROM HERE)

Want to bet?

Posted by: Queequeg the Harpooner at October 14, 2012 05:51 AM (p4U6S)

23 Can we get Montel Williams his old job back. Otherwise he's on all the channels hawking some bullshit instead of just one.

Posted by: Up with people! at October 14, 2012 05:53 AM (kzFo5)

24 Stephanie Cutter Political Strategist, Professional Liar, and Administrations #2 Turd Polisher

I see what you did there.

Posted by: scif at October 14, 2012 06:05 AM (TqLxU)

25 Right. I took one look at this PPP garbage and said there is just no way. By this time in 2008 about 20% of all votes were cast early. According to PPP that is the same amount cast so far this year despite only half the number of ballots requested? No just no.

They are just trying to cover for the fact Obama is dying in the polls noe by saying it doesn't matter. Its already over.

Add to that no one is winning anything in OH 76/24.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 14, 2012 06:15 AM (hlUJY)

26 The PPP statisticians consider it a multicollinearity error to mix reality with their poll results. Trust the polls.

Posted by: Jean at October 14, 2012 06:23 AM (g2ldK)

27 ppp is just part of the obama campaign. its a 50 state vote, he needs OH, they must try to get the story out that OH is over.

especially since we already know that FL, VA, NC, CO, NV, WI and ME (1) are already in the bank for Romney.


This^ is the real story. I don't know so much about CO, NV, WI but the trend is our friend. Suffolk U. is not polling in the first three anymore. The bottom line is that if OH shows a solid lead for R^2, it's game over, man. Game over.

CAC may correct me, but I think the story is now that Obama has to hold all three of OH, PA, MI.


Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 06:27 AM (xSegX)

28 I WAS IN OHIO. I WAS THERE!

Posted by: Joe Biden at October 14, 2012 06:29 AM (feFL6)

29 The stories have already been writtenby TFG's campaign for the media to use. They don't need the rule of law to run the country, and they certainly don't need facts to push a story.

Posted by: 141Driver at October 14, 2012 06:30 AM (bRK91)

30 PPP was started by Erskine Boles. Yea, that Erskine Bowles. You don't need to know anything else.

Posted by: Queequeg the Harpooner at October 14, 2012 06:40 AM (p4U6S)

31
What's interesting is that it only seems to be Ohio that pollsters are pulling the "already voted" weighting gimmick. The Marist (?) poll pulled that trick as well to justify their D+infinity sample.

It's as if they know Obama's final frontier has been breached and are desperately trying to talk up the race not being over.

Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 14, 2012 06:43 AM (RstsB)

32 I'll stick with RUSH'S opinion on this,in which all polls are B.S. until one week out ...This opinion has been proven true every election cycle...

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 06:43 AM (XIsD/)

33 any "reputable" polls coming out next week? before/after debate?

Posted by: kelley in virginia at October 14, 2012 06:45 AM (HNwOT)

34 What's interesting is that it only seems to be Ohio that pollsters are pulling the "already voted" weighting gimmick. The Marist (?) poll pulled that trick as well to justify their D+infinity sample.

It's as if they know Obama's final frontier has been breached and are desperately trying to talk up the race not being over.


That's what I think as well, They've been caught on the D+ whatever and for some reason they've found that they could get more Democrats to say they voted than Republicans.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 06:52 AM (xSegX)

35 any "reputable" polls coming out next week? before/after debate?

Undoubtedly, given that PPP felt the need to do this. I swear, their only purpose seems to be to mess with the RCP average.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 06:55 AM (xSegX)

36
So if you re-weight the numbers by assuming, say, 7% of people "already voted" (what CAC seems to suggest) instead of 19%, you get:

Romney 49% (0.07*0.24)+(0.51*0.93)
Obama 47% (0.07*0.76) + (0.45*0.93)

if I've done my maths correctly, Romney up 2.

Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 14, 2012 06:56 AM (RstsB)

37 " Theory of the Idiocracy "

Everyone mindlessly repeats polls and slogans as though they were a scientific consensus...This is how AlGore works or Saul Alinsky's " Rules for Radicals "... No matter what the truth is - a lie is better , because in the end it's whats best for them...

It's an elitist attitude and should always be fought against ...

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 06:59 AM (XIsD/)

38 ox·y·mo·ron   [ok-si-mawr-on, -mohr-] Show IPA
noun, plural ox·y·mo·ra  [ok-si-mawr-uh, -mohr-uh] Show IPA, ox·y·mor·ons. Rhetoric .
a figure of speech by which a locution produces an incongruous, seemingly self-contradictory effect, as in “cruel kindness” or "illegal immigrant"

Posted by: Up with people! at October 14, 2012 07:01 AM (kzFo5)

39 32 American Dawg: "I'll stick with RUSH'S opinion on this,in which all polls are B.S. until one week out ..."

True enough.

But up until that last week, are their polling methods really just that sketchy and dubious, or is the public really fickle and lying to pollsters (like many students who put off that term paper until the last few days), or are some pollsters just trying to manipulate public opinion to create a bandwagon effect for their favored candidates?

Or is it some of all three and it's hard for the public to have any way to know the credibility of any polls other than the old yardstick Gallup polls?

Posted by: TooCon at October 14, 2012 07:01 AM (V4YIE)

40 re 9:

Bureau of Labor Statistics - We Put the L in BS

I really like that one...

Posted by: mallfly at October 14, 2012 07:04 AM (NI3M5)

41 Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 14, 2012 06:56 AM (RstsB)

That's, of course, assuming that Obama does indeed hold a 2-1 lead among those who already voted (and that Romney holds a 6 point lead among those who didn't). Call me very skeptical on the first.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 07:04 AM (xSegX)

42 Gretel is lost..lost! We must find her. Every vote counts!

Posted by: Hansel at October 14, 2012 07:06 AM (Y//vu)

43 @ TooCon...# 39

In my opinion you nailed it with tour entire post :
" some pollsters just trying to manipulate public opinion to create a bandwagon effect for their favored candidates "

Although Gallop was once credible they caved to David Axelrod and changed their polling samples to benefit "The Obama "

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 07:12 AM (XIsD/)

44 What's the good news in all this?

Historically these piolls have NO EFFECT on the actual outcome. Bandwagoning, especially when you have a POTUS as polarizing as Obama is way overblown.

Look at what happened in 1980. They pulled the same polling garbage and Carter was crushed. Yeah. Polling is like an Obama political slogan. Sounds great, pisses you off but in the end, meaningless.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 14, 2012 07:14 AM (hlUJY)

45 I just realized this was posted at 4o a.m...
Is CaC drunk posting ?

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 07:14 AM (XIsD/)

46 every thing, everything, they do between now and the election is designed to supress our vote

Posted by: thunderb at October 14, 2012 07:15 AM (Dnbau)

47 But up until that last week, are their polling methods really just that sketchy and dubious, or is the public really fickle and lying to pollsters (like many students who put off that term paper until the last few days), or are some pollsters just trying to manipulate public opinion to create a bandwagon effect for their favored candidates?

I certainly think PPP does. They are a PushPushPush polling outfit. They always come up with novel ways to bias polls. I think that other, smaller pollsters mimic their methodology either out of a desire for bias themselves or...

...there's always a fear among pollsters that they're completely missing everything. That cell phones mean that their polling is completely wrong, that there are trends that make traditional polling useless.

And so if some big company has some new way of doing things, it must be for a reason, right?

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 07:17 AM (xSegX)

48 And so if some big company has some new way of doing things, it must be for a reason, right?


Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 07:17 AM (xSegX)

And if it is a polling company, you can bet the reason is NOT to make you better informed. After all, you don't control any of the tax legislation or the regulations that apply to their business!

Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 14, 2012 07:21 AM (Cnqmv)

49 have they polled since slo joes crazy clown debate? No bounce right? Plus I bet it cost them WI at the very least

Posted by: thunderb at October 14, 2012 07:23 AM (Dnbau)

50 why anybody takes PPP seriously is beyond me. They have already been busted this election cycle doing push polling in Wisconsin.

Posted by: tofer732 at October 14, 2012 07:24 AM (m5Iwq)

51 wolf is still getting a bj in the basement from his mom. the tears make it difficult for him to enjoy.

Posted by: wolfs dad at October 14, 2012 07:41 AM (90YdZ)

52 What continues to bother me is this: right now, Choom Boy's campaign is using polling "data" and outright lies (in teevee commercials, "news" stories and on the stump) to depress turnout and give the Traitor-in-Chief his Magical Victory.

But, despite their choice of candidates, the Democrat "leaders" didn't just fall off the turnip truck. They have an organization in place -- remember ACORN, the Black Panthers, et. al.? -- and they have the power of government behind them.

So, when the votes come rolling in and begin to indicate that President Historic First© is getting his ass handed to him, does anyone think they will accept that without making another stab at getting the result they want? Will they simply say "gosh, we lost" and take defeat with good grace?

Not. A. Chance.

Polling data is a distraction. They don't care. They have ways of changing election results in their favor, and they won't hesitate to use them.

This is not the time to rejoice in victory. Be prepared, be aware, and save the happy shit for Nov. 7th.

Posted by: MrScribbler, banned at TepidAir at October 14, 2012 07:41 AM (ZgX/g)

53
The same thing is happening in PA.

*Sigh!*

I guess I won't even bother to vote.

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 14, 2012 07:46 AM (tOkJB)

54 Good poll analysis!

I too feel certain the Angel Moroni will guide Mitt to victory.

Posted by: Gerald Gashgrinder at October 14, 2012 07:51 AM (Ho6UX)

55
My expecttion for one of the remaining debates is for Obama to repeat the 'interrupt him every 20 seconds' strategy that Biden used to create an Alpha dog dominance perception.
So i'm thinking that Romney needs to (1) Not be interupting (2) defend his seaking time turf like a junkyard dog. If the president interupts, he has to go OVER him and keep making his point. Refuse to cede the stage. With both talking, the moderator will be forced to step in and side with Romney.

Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at October 14, 2012 07:56 AM (kzejo)

56 Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at October 14, 2012 07:56 AM (kzejo)

Are you saying it is time to release the angry half-black "man"? One can only hope!

Posted by: Hrothgar (Dagny Aficionado ) at October 14, 2012 08:01 AM (Cnqmv)

57 The Obama plan has always been to 'win' the early vote. So the RNC doesn't know the plan but I do. Not likely, R/R is matching the early vote...PPP is a tool

Posted by: Mark2 at October 14, 2012 08:02 AM (Bfnt/)

58 Time for early morning thread?

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:23 AM (YdQQY)

59 Well, I see the comment function is shitting the bed again.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 08:24 AM (xL7J/)

60 Morning Vic.
Site is going wonky again.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 08:25 AM (xL7J/)

61 60 Morning Vic.
Site is going wonky again.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 08:25 AM (xL7J/)

8:10 AM, like it's on some kind of timer.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Wonders what Dagny thinks at October 14, 2012 08:26 AM (kc2b9)

62 It is going down at exactly the same time every day, isn't it?

Posted by: Mama AJ at October 14, 2012 08:26 AM (SUKHu)

63
Let's see, 8am Eastern is what time in .nu land?

8 to 10 pm in Australia right now...

Posted by: Mama AJ at October 14, 2012 08:29 AM (SUKHu)

64 Pssh, what's with all these facts? Some people just can't take a loss.

Posted by: The Greginator at October 14, 2012 08:29 AM (a0nis)

65 It seems to be OK at the moment. It's 8:30 EDT now.

Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 08:30 AM (sdi6R)

66
Off to the flea market.

Bbl, h8ters.

Posted by: Ed Anger at October 14, 2012 08:30 AM (tOkJB)

67 Yeah, wonky is right. But where's Andy?

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:30 AM (YdQQY)

68 Tell me more about this 'over-polling' they're doing in Ohio. Sounds delish!

Posted by: Sandra Fluke at October 14, 2012 08:30 AM (bRK91)

69 Mama,
It's like OSP said, right around 8:10am daily.
As an aside, I just joined "The Group" the other day, and am struggling with mastering those skillz.
I was on Yahoo trying to update alies just now, and that section is returning an "Our Servers are taking a break" message.
And it's only that section of Yahoo, mail is working perfect, and you can get to the Moron Horde's Group itself with no problem.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 08:31 AM (xL7J/)

70 What if the solid Obama voters ran out like blithering idiots released from an attic and voted ? What if from this point forward, Obama's support peters out and on the ACTUAL voting day, Romney buries him? I just don't think this means anything except Obats, desperate beyond measure, are running like wild banshees to cast their vote hoping that by voting early the vote will mean more or something.

Posted by: Janetoo at October 14, 2012 08:32 AM (R+fMx)

71 It does seem to be going down the same time each morning, maybe it's pixi's bathroom break

Posted by: spypeach at October 14, 2012 08:32 AM (pwTow)

72
It's called voter suppression - Democrat style.

Posted by: Murph at October 14, 2012 08:32 AM (23ik4)

73 Spypeach.

Weren't you talking about a meetup in Baltimore the other day?
Am trying to put something together with DCinTowson on the group site.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 08:34 AM (xL7J/)

74 Is Pixy in Australia or New Zealand?

Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 08:36 AM (sdi6R)

75
Hamster cage cleaning time.

And Pixy IPLs the TRS-80 and puts in a fresh cassette tape.

Posted by: Mama AJ at October 14, 2012 08:36 AM (SUKHu)

76 Pixy is in NZ.

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:36 AM (YdQQY)

77 So it's about 1:10 am NZ time when the shit happens. Some sort of automatic server maintenance or backup?

Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 08:38 AM (sdi6R)

78 Hamsters can't run 24/7 they have to
change them out sometime...
Seems to be fixed now and I believe just a bit faster...

Posted by: AmericanDawg at October 14, 2012 08:39 AM (XIsD/)

79 Yep, everyday between 8:10 and 8:25 or so.

Posted by: Bart who lurks with SMOD 2012, master of his domain at October 14, 2012 08:39 AM (he2LC)

80 Am trying to put something together with DCinTowson on the group site.
Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 08:34 AM (xL7J/)

I'm also looking for a DC area Moron Meetup. Anywhere near-ish College Park.

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 46% more DOOM! at October 14, 2012 08:40 AM (MrM2k)

81
Math - its hard, especially if you're hack trying to promote the Democrats. Polls promoting wildly inaccurate claims need to be excoriated, repeatedly.


Barac Obama is a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: Gmac at October 14, 2012 08:40 AM (IanLz)

82 @72

The only thing being suppressed here is my urge to leave and go man the glory hole at Flying J's.

Posted by: The Greginator at October 14, 2012 08:41 AM (a0nis)

83 (AP) Biden Defiant After Debate Performance

In the first sighting of the post-debate Vice-President, Joe Biden held court on his driveway early this morning to a group of assembled neighbors and reporters. Clad only in underwear and socks the Vice-President seemed undeterred by the near freezing temperatures. In a discussion punctuated by frequent references to 'I was there, dammit' he remained consistent in his conviction that he had showed 'that kid'.

Clearly alarmed by the site of a youngsters bicycle on his broad manicured lawn, Joe launched into an 80 minute verbal assault of the distraught young man before finishing with "You're no Jack Kennedy!" and slamming the front door behind him.

http://tinyurl.com/yj3fqss

Posted by: Plank's Constant at October 14, 2012 08:42 AM (feFL6)

84 The servers for AOS are not in NZ. Pixy just maintains the blog code there. I suspect the servers are in NYC or CT.

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:42 AM (YdQQY)

85 It's battlespace prep for the post Debate II Obama Debacle.

This false flag story is not about depressing Republican turnout. It's to keep the Dem base from surrendering altogether.

They are trying to create a meme of It Doesn't Matter How Bad Obama Does in Debates I, II or III Because, Since Huge Numbers In Ohio Voted Before the Debate Debacles, Ohio Is Already In The Bag.


Posted by: Stratego at October 14, 2012 08:44 AM (u3N3z)

86 Did someone say "bag"? *drools*

Posted by: The Greginator at October 14, 2012 08:49 AM (a0nis)

87 I'm not really concerned. Keep in mind the Dem's are going to be doing their best to suppress potential conservative turnout through the 7th. Screw em....whatever you do, make sure you get out and vote. Let's win this fucking thing, and send Obungle, and Joe 'Drool' Biden into retirement where they belong.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 14, 2012 08:52 AM (L7hol)

88 Today's poll reweights. I've added a D+3 model to the calculations to give folks inclined to think D+3 is likely (looks at CAC):

R+1.00% - Current RCP Average
O+0.43% - Average using the 2008 turnout model
R+4.52% - Average using the 2010 turnout model
R+4.54% - Average using the 2004 turnout model
R+6.30% - Average using the Rasmussen Party ID turnout model
R+2.30% - Average using the D+3 turnout model

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 08:53 AM (dX4hn)

89 I found a secret tape of Joe Biden's debate prep...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vrizW4QQTC0

Posted by: Plank's Constant at October 14, 2012 08:53 AM (feFL6)

90
Village Idiot's Apprentice,
Yes I would love to do a meet up. The group site, is that the same as the facebook group?

Posted by: spypeach at October 14, 2012 08:54 AM (pwTow)

91 "Polls are for strippers and cross country skiers."
Sarah Palin

Posted by: VADM (Red) Cuthbert Collingwood (Mentioned in Dispatches) at October 14, 2012 08:55 AM (p4U6S)

92 It's battlespace prep for the post Debate II Obama Debacle.

I'm not sure Debate II will be a debacle, although I think Team Romney has a rigid strategy that they're sticking to. I think they have a plan for Mean Obama and it's not the Ryan plan. Ryan, I think, was told to just keep calm and not get in the mud. There were several times when he could have interjected during a break in one of Biden's diatribes and Ryan was just letting him go.

I don't think Romney will play it quite that way. I also think his debates don't lend themselves to interruption. The VP format allowed for this kind of nonsense.

This false flag story is not about depressing Republican turnout. It's to keep the Dem base from surrendering altogether.

What I read was that the non-ridiculous respondents were supporting Romney 51-45. If they lose Ohio, Obama is toast. He's losing too many other states.

They are trying to create a meme of It Doesn't Matter How Bad Obama Does in Debates I, II or III Because, Since Huge Numbers In Ohio Voted Before the Debate Debacles, Ohio Is Already In The Bag.

You have a great point. They see all those numbers going south and need some good news -- that they've locked in enough votes.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 08:55 AM (xSegX)

93 May as well post the news on this thread. Looks like we will get the book thread before an open thread.

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:57 AM (YdQQY)

94 Good Morning Morons. Today is Sunday, October 14, 2012. On this day in 1066 William The Conqueror defeated King Harold II to become King of England at the battle of Hastings.

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:58 AM (YdQQY)

95 Biden’s comments on the M1 tank draws fire.

http://is.gd/oPo5wj

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:58 AM (YdQQY)

96 Yeah, I saw this, and I saw an analysis of how inwas bull the other day.

Keep angry, carry on, and so forth

Posted by: Truman North at October 14, 2012 08:58 AM (I2LwF)

97 Family of stupid woman who tried to run over border patrol agent has shystereed up now.

http://is.gd/dLr1as

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:58 AM (YdQQY)

98 Spypeach,
It's the AceofSpades Yahoo group.
If another Moron can find and link the request to join.
Am really struggling here right now with connectivity issues.

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 08:58 AM (xL7J/)

99 Elderly Care operators file RICO suit against Obama’s SEIU goons. All I can say is its about time.

http://is.gd/271zyU

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:59 AM (YdQQY)

100 A black reporter asks “Do black people support Obama because he's black?”. One wonders if bears still shit in the woods.


http://is.gd/M1Rf64

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:59 AM (YdQQY)

101 Nobel “Peace Prize” examined. It should be renamed as the “Nobel Commie Prize” because that is what it has become.

http://is.gd/vjgjcM

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:59 AM (YdQQY)

102 Religion of Peace savages riot and burn five Christian churches because they were “offended”. And no, it wasn’t a video.

http://is.gd/3aoli5

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:00 AM (YdQQY)

103 Submarine collides with an aegis Cruiser. I smell someone retiring soon.

http://is.gd/QHMQw9

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:00 AM (YdQQY)

104 Is there enough time left for Hillary to go under the bus? It sure looks like that is about to happen.

http://is.gd/DJ1Gss

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:00 AM (YdQQY)

105 Nobel “Peace Prize” examined. It should be renamed as the “Nobel Commie Prize” because that is what it has become.

This year's selection is such a joke that people didn't even bother making a joke about it.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 09:01 AM (xSegX)

106 Obama schedules yet another campaign trip to the Daily Show.

http://is.gd/bw9Zn8

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:01 AM (YdQQY)

107 RIP Gary Collins at 74.

http://is.gd/FHCr7v

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:01 AM (YdQQY)

108 All Morons need to take this survey and shit on this liberal poll for solar power.

http://is.gd/s9ALPQ

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:01 AM (YdQQY)

109 USDA will now require IDs for chickens. But it is racist to require ID for voters.

http://is.gd/vdMfNo

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:02 AM (YdQQY)

110 More likely this is being pushed forward so that when Obama loses in Ohio, he and others can point to this "poll" and claim there must have been voter fraud, because PPP reported that voters were surging for Obama.

Posted by: Wheatley at October 14, 2012 09:02 AM (PZ+DJ)

111 Kindle Daily Deal:


Leadership and Self-Deception: Getting out of the Box


Since its publication in 2004 Leadership and Self-Deception has become an international best-seller. The book’s central insight--that the key to leadership lays not in what we do, but in who we are--has proved to resonate powerfully. This revised edition features help for readers to apply the book's lessons.

And that’s it for today

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:02 AM (YdQQY)

112 @106

Oh man, I still haven't coughed up all the jizz from last time.

Posted by: Jon Stewart at October 14, 2012 09:02 AM (a0nis)

113 A black reporter asks “Do black people support Obama because he's black?”. One wonders if bears still shit in the woods.

Actually, it's a good article. The tone is more like, "So why do bears shit in the woods anyway? There are perfectly good port-a-johns nearby."

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 09:04 AM (xSegX)

114 Some good news from Ohio. Gateway Pundit has a post about Ohio Coal Miners asking Obama to stop lying about them. They are standing with Romney. Encouraging.

Posted by: macintx at October 14, 2012 09:09 AM (teREJ)

115 Felix Baumgartner is going to attempt a record-breaking balloon flight and skydive again today. He's suited up and preparing to enter the capsule.

The live broadcast has started:

http://www.redbullstratos.com/live/

Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 09:09 AM (sdi6R)

116 Liveblogging here:

http://forum.nasaspaceflight.com/index.php?topic=22950.75

Posted by: rickl at October 14, 2012 09:11 AM (sdi6R)

117 Hmmm. Axlerude has held Gallup's feet to the fire for "polling methods". And Gallup is providing the undecided voters for Tuesdays town meeting debate??? Nothing to see here folks! Nothing to see here

Posted by: NativeNH at October 14, 2012 09:11 AM (uKQEN)

118 Wow...Beau Biden seems to be as big an idiot as Plugs

Posted by: Albie Damned at October 14, 2012 09:12 AM (Yhu4q)

119 Did some napkin math at the restaurant this morning (in Palanga, Lithuania, no less) and even if you accept PPP's outrageous 19% already voted number, this means among the who haven't voted Romney is up 7% in Ohio. That has got to scare Dems.

Furthermore, when has the absentee (I'm one. Already voted last week) early voter segment ever seen a 75% favor for anyone? Its absurd.

My guess is the 47%, knowing they won't drag their lazy asses out to vote just lied and said thy already did.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 14, 2012 09:14 AM (txhRp)

120 #117 Of course it will be stacked. I wouldn't be surprised if some of those undecideds are employees of OFA, on a seek and destroy mission. Probably laid-off workers from a Bain company.

By the way, pony tail guy from the 1992 debate town hall was a prof at UVA. He is now a prof at Princeton with a salary of over $163,000 per year not counting stipends, textbook royalties, and speaking fees. He probably got the job as a reward.

Posted by: Miss Marple at October 14, 2012 09:15 AM (GoIUi)

121 Where has Biden been since the debate? Is he hiding out somewhere?

Posted by: macintx at October 14, 2012 09:17 AM (teREJ)

122
Where's the Headlines thread. Waaaaayy too early in the morning for all these numbers.

Posted by: katya the designated driver at October 14, 2012 09:20 AM (DoZD+)

123
Furthermore, when has the absentee (I'm one. Already voted last week) early voter segment ever seen a 75% favor for anyone? Its absurd.

My guess is the 47%, knowing they won't drag their lazy asses out to vote just lied and said thy already did.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 14, 2012 09:14 AM (txhRp)

Either that or it's a huge red flag that just screams "Voting Fraud Happening Here!" And frankly, I'm sick of having to play this game every 2 years.

Posted by: Is what JQ Public is thinking... at October 14, 2012 09:22 AM (NBj0d)

124 55 With both talking, the moderator will be forced to step in and side with Romney.
Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at October 14, 2012 07:56 AM (kzejo)


Now THAT there is funny! Side with Romney. What side of Candy Crowley would that be; the rump or the flank?

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 14, 2012 09:22 AM (+tqYo)

125 Where's the Headlines thread. Waaaaayy too early in the morning for all these numbers.

Posted by: katya the designated driver at October 14, 2012 09:20 AM (DoZD+)

See post 94

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:22 AM (YdQQY)

126 "Our poll found 1) there are no longer any Republicans living in OH and 2) Barack Obama is ahead by 5 points." -PPP

Posted by: Sugar Kane at October 14, 2012 09:27 AM (EX+sq)

127 I saw the Big Bird Obama ad during SNL last night. I thought it was a skit and told Mrs928 Ha! SNL finally gets a funny in.*


*In fairness, The Californians makes me chuckle every time.

Posted by: toby928© at October 14, 2012 09:28 AM (QupBk)

128 Rasmussen Sunday: Romney 49-47. Same for the swing state poll.

Posted by: VBJonny at October 14, 2012 09:28 AM (bED4B)

129 Gallup is going to use only those undecided voters who have tattooed "I love Obama" on their ass

Posted by: TexasJew at October 14, 2012 09:28 AM (lD8ju)

130 Is there enough time left for Hillary to go under the bus? It sure looks like that is about to happen.


If Hillary goes under the bus, Bill will go something something and the Horde will party with booze and sparklers and that's just not going to end well for anyone.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 09:28 AM (Gk3SS)

131 even if you accept PPP's outrageous 19% already voted number, this means among the who haven't voted Romney is up 7% in Ohio. That has got to scare Dems.

Yeah. I think that was the number they got, which is why they had to flog their "already voted" thing. Frankly, I don't know where they got those numbers, but we're assuming that they don't just make them up.

Furthermore, when has the absentee (I'm one. Already voted last week) early voter segment ever seen a 75% favor for anyone? Its absurd.

That, too.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 09:30 AM (xSegX)

132 Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:02 AM (YdQQY)

My lovely but stupid niece and her nice but ultra-liberal boyfriend were over for dinner last weekend.

I told him that requiring voter ID was racist, and he agreed completely.

I then said that since the 2nd Amendment guarantees the right to bear arms, ID checks for gun purchases were also racist.

Cognitive dissonance is a beautiful thing in a liberal.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 14, 2012 09:31 AM (2b4yb)

133 128 romney up 2 in both on Sunday ... that's great news.

Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 09:32 AM (2J4Qq)

134 O/T
Washington Post writer Dan Zat tweets that Ryan is a Perp!
http://tinyurl.com/95rqrvo

Posted by: abandon at October 14, 2012 09:32 AM (WE03P)

135 How can I stop Joe Biden from drinking out of my toilet bowl?

Posted by: TexasJew at October 14, 2012 09:35 AM (lD8ju)

136 D.M. Hawkins
@HawkinsUSAEvery GOP county that voted for McCain is way up in absentee requests, almost every county that voted for Obama is way down.

Posted by: Evilpens at October 14, 2012 09:36 AM (ck76k)

137 Why does anyone bother with PPP? They are the propaganda arm of Daily Kos. I have taken one of their polls and it bordered on insane with the bias of the questions.

Bottom line anyone who votes for Romany is a baby killing axe murderer.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 09:36 AM (wR+pz)

138 Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 09:28 AM (Gk3SS)

Clinton is a sleazy fuck, but if Obama is stupid enough to throw Hillary under the bus, then I will happily take Bill on our side until November 7th.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 14, 2012 09:37 AM (2b4yb)

139
The news that the attack on the local dem off was carried out by a person with a history of helping the dem party will obviously get widespread coverage by the media:

http://tinyurl.com/myh5bj

Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 09:37 AM (jx2j9)

140 Pics from the Romney rally yesterday in Lebanon, Ohio - it's just north of Cincinnati:

http://tinyurl.com/9ulqhzs

http://tinyurl.com/9rgu36q

Massive.

Posted by: Witchfinder at October 14, 2012 09:37 AM (s/PhC)

141
When I saw this PPP story I was reminded of a test question where he had to make up some statistics to show that we understood concepts. Someone at PPP must have taken that class with me. By the way it went something like this...

A salesman makes a living going door to door to sell vacuum cleaners. In his first few months he learns that he has the best luck in certain middle class neighborhoods. Over the next year he figures that he sells a vacuum once for every twenty times a door is answered. He eventually gets out of the business and his replacement never sells more than one out of one hundred responses and gets fired. The replacement was considered a better closer, what happened? Work through your answer using statistical analysis.

Posted by: Tocquevillian at October 14, 2012 09:39 AM (iuY0Y)

142 Clinton is a sleazy fuck, but if Obama is stupid enough to throw Hillary
under the bus, then I will happily take Bill on our side until November
7th.



If there is one sure thing in politics, it's that Bill Clinton will be on Bill Clinton's side. Having TFG try to destroy the combined Clinton legacy will not exactly appeal to Bill's warm and fuzzy side.


Of course, if Hillary had anything resembling a soul or dignity or class or a conscience, she would have resigned the day after the attack.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 09:40 AM (Gk3SS)

143
# 115

Sweet! I hope they succeed this time! I was bummed out last week when it didn't happen...and was certain that when they did make their second attempt that I'd miss it. So...time to coffee up.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 14, 2012 09:42 AM (L7hol)

144
So. Let me get this straight. The Obama team, out of self preservation, is contemplating throwing Hillary under the bus. Because of this, Bill Clinton is contemplating helping to throw Hillary under the bus.

I'm thinking that my idea aboutSCOAMT's promise of an unlimited supply of coeds in exchange for campaign support from Bubba is starting to come together.

Yeah, I know. Sometimes I evenamazemyself.

Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 09:43 AM (jx2j9)

145 Actually this Ras numbers for Romney for Sunday are devastating for Obama.

Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 09:43 AM (htu8n)

146 perhaps they are right, in that most of these Dhimmeroid early/absentee voters will vote again (and again) under different names (the dead folks need representation ya know). It's amazing how the dead vote tends to break 3 to1 in Chicago every time.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at October 14, 2012 09:44 AM (EhYdw)

147 Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 09:37 AM (jx2j9)

That's a 2009 article, HtP.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 14, 2012 09:44 AM (ccXZP)

148 If there is one sure thing in politics, it's that Bill Clinton will be on Bill Clinton's side. Having TFG try to destroy the combined Clinton legacy will not exactly appeal to Bill's warm and fuzzy side.

You'll know it's over when Bill throws Obama under the bus. He won't have the starry-eyed optimism that the campaign workers will.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 09:44 AM (xSegX)

149 Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 09:40 AM (Gk3SS)

But it would be delightful to watch the Clintons go after Obama.

My guess is that after the election she will become quite the independent and strong Sec State, and separate herself forcefully from Obama. That will be the only way to prevent a total destruction of her chances in 2016.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo at October 14, 2012 09:44 AM (2b4yb)

150 It would be interesting to see where Clinton and Hillary are this weekend, while Obama is holed up at that resort in Virginia. (Why doesn't he do debate prep at the White House? Answer: At the White House they have to log who comes into coach him.)


Posted by: Miss Marple at October 14, 2012 09:46 AM (GoIUi)

151 I'm at a huuuuge all - you - can - eat breakfast buffet! Gonna load up on the calories today and taper off tomorrow. Got a big day Tuesday! Meeting w/ wonderful POTUS on Monday to go over strategy. C'ya Tuesday night! Mmmmmm.....bacon.

Posted by: Candy Crowley at October 14, 2012 09:46 AM (OiC7K)

152 As an Ohioan, I can tell you there is no way Obungles wins this state. Enthusiasm here is off the charts for Romney. I saw tons of Romney bumper stickers when I was out yesterday and the only Obama sticker I saw was on the vehicle of the Obama jerks out doing door knocks in my neighborhood. They didn't come to my house and didn't talk to me while I was walking the dog. It must have been the beard and the Black Sabbath Volume 4 shirt I was wearing.

Posted by: Witchfinder at October 14, 2012 09:46 AM (s/PhC)

153 POLL FLOODING NEEDED fellow morons!!
#108 Vic has called upon us to help out. 'The State' newsblog of South Carolinais holding a poll on ripping off the taxpayers for solar stupidity. Please help out and vote on this idiocy. There's only 184 votes so far so we can really swing this. Here's the URL again: http://is.gd/s9ALPQ
The sweet tast of bitter libtard tears is a wonderful thing.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at October 14, 2012 09:47 AM (EhYdw)

154 "Pics from the Romney rally yesterday in Lebanon, Ohio - it's just north of Cincinnati:"

Wow! But Obama needs to throw a Springsteen concert to draw a crowd.

Don't tell me Romney is losing Ohio.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 09:47 AM (dX4hn)

155 Big B day party Wednesday for Pat McCrory, next NC Governor. The smell of victory is mighty sweet. Pat belongs to my club and everyone has been calling him governor for the last two months.


And he like the way it sounds, and so do we.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 09:49 AM (wR+pz)

156 That will be the only way to prevent a total destruction of her chances in 2016.

Why am I still skeptical of Hillary2016? It's stupid. She'll be 68. She looks very old now.

And she isn't acting presidenty.

I think Bill wants her to be president and I think he was the only one since 2009. I think she's given up on the whole idea.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 09:49 AM (xSegX)

157 Brb. Crossin' the aisle to help Obama prepare for the debate!

Posted by: Sen John McCain at October 14, 2012 09:50 AM (L7hol)

158 That's a 2009 article, HtP.
Posted by: GnuBreed at October 14, 2012 09:44 AM (ccXZP)Sorry about that. I say a reference to 'false flag' dirty tricks this morning and that came up in a search. I didn't even bother to check the date. My bad.

Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 09:50 AM (jx2j9)

159 I'm thinking Romney hits 50 in Ras tracking sometime this week.

Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 09:51 AM (XFYiQ)

160 @156

Hillary's not running for shit. After this election she will quit whether Barry wins or not.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 09:52 AM (wR+pz)

161
139 The news that the attack on the local dem off was carried out by a person with a history of helping the dem party will obviously get widespread coverage by the media:http://tinyurl.com/myh5bj
Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 09:37 AM (jx2j9)


****

Ummm, dude- the article you linked is from August 2009. There has not been any arrest or ID of the perpetrator of the shooting last week at the Denver Obama office.
Try this link: http://preview.tinyurl.com/8c89oow

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 14, 2012 09:52 AM (/LkSO)

162 (Why doesn't he do debate prep at the White House? Answer: At the White House they have to log who comes into coach him.)

Whoa.

Yeah, but do you think his coach is Bill Ayers or somebody? Or just somebody who doesn't want it to be known he's working with Obama? A consultant who plays both sides of the fence, for instance. Or like Keanu Reeves' acting coach? nobody wants that bit of information known.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 14, 2012 09:52 AM (xSegX)

163 Fuggin' hilarious..I LOVE this guy

http://tinyurl.com/9w7x4an

Posted by: Albie Damned at October 14, 2012 09:53 AM (Yhu4q)

164 @153

You've got some rebuttals under your post on that site that need attention.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at October 14, 2012 09:53 AM (TJ/PF)

165 Can Greg come out of his room and play with you all today?

He needs a good smack down, he left his butt plug in the poodle again last night.

Posted by: Greg's mom at October 14, 2012 09:53 AM (wR+pz)

166 "Pat belongs to my club and everyone has been calling him governor for the last two months."

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 09:49 AM (wR+pz)

Oh, wow! What a typical 1%er. Are there any women or Jews or people of color in your club? Or are they ones who clean the toilets?

We need a tax on excess income if this is the way the people live off the labor of the middle class.


Posted by: Another Brattleboro Babe at October 14, 2012 09:53 AM (2b4yb)

167
Remember that super slimey DNC spox who said, "If Romney was talking, he was lying?"
Contrast that statement with Bidens super honest debate performance:

http://tinyurl.com/8o9aa2m

Posted by: HtP at October 14, 2012 09:54 AM (jx2j9)

168 HtP- so all that righteous anger I was reading last night on the Dem blogs about us "Rethuglicans" going on a killing spree was.... based on bullshit?

The Hell. You. Say.

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 14, 2012 09:54 AM (QTHTd)

169 HtP- sorry for the duplicate reprimand! I was slow on the trigger!

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 14, 2012 09:54 AM (/LkSO)

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:55 AM (YdQQY)

171 Given PPP's idealogical stance, liberal democrat, I think we know that this is steaming pile.

Posted by: Opinionator at October 14, 2012 09:55 AM (H14Av)

172 oh, oops HtP

Posted by: boulder hobo at October 14, 2012 09:55 AM (QTHTd)

173 I would be glad to see Hillary resign with a big stink made about how Obama overruled her on most things, including the coverrup.

Clinton was here in Indiana on Friday, but as far as I could tell from the radio reports he mostly campaigned for state people (governor and senator candidate) and avoided much mention of Obama. Even so the rally was in a high school gym, not some big place like Lucas Oil or the Pacers stadium.

Posted by: Miss Marple at October 14, 2012 09:55 AM (GoIUi)

174 Wait. WHAT?

Romney +2 in Rasmussen today? He gained a point on Saturday polling? Unheard of.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 09:56 AM (dX4hn)

175 @166

Actually, we have all of those. We did politely turn down Micheal Jordan. I am not kidding, he owns the NBA here. We didn't want his posse stumping around the club. His general manager has been asked to join, he doesn't travel with a posse.

Posted by: Billy Bob, the 1% at October 14, 2012 09:57 AM (wR+pz)

176 How many Morons got an e-mail from Amazon telling them about settlement credits for Kindle users?

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 09:58 AM (YdQQY)

177 CAC, I'm not too bright, so I need something explained to me. I can see how they can claim that X number of registered Dems requested ballots, and maybe even claim that X number of Dem-registered ballots were returned. But where do they get that those ballots are running 3:1 for Obama? Are early ballots counted early? I thought all the counting was done on election day? Isn't it possible some Dems are voting for Romney or have they supposedly tabulated the votes already?

Posted by: Virginiagirl at October 14, 2012 09:59 AM (EjY4t)

178 I think Bill wants her to be president and I think he was the only one since 2009. I think she's given up on the whole idea.


Yup. My comments on her appearance aren't about her appearance per se as much as it is about how she is letting herself go in public. You don't have to be all botoxed up, in fact, I truly loathe the plastic face look, but if you want to be taken seriously, you have to at least look like you care. She's a powerful woman in a powerful position and if she can't be bothered to wash and comb her hair, well, she's pretty clearly given up.


Let's take Janet Napolitano. No one would accuse her of being a fashionista. However, in public she looks like she's at least made an attempt to look put together. There's much to be said for looking neat and clean and pressed and like you've given a shit how you look to others. Hillary's recent appearance looks like she doesn't.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 14, 2012 09:59 AM (Gk3SS)

179 new open thread up

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 10:00 AM (YdQQY)

180 I just went to look at McCain photos in Ohio during 2008. There were a couple big crowds, especially this one rally with Palin there too. But some of the pictures of lines didn't look too impressive. One was "4 blocks long" but it didn't look like these massive crowds we are seeing waiting to get in for Romney.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 10:01 AM (dX4hn)

181 174 Wait. WHAT?

Romney +2 in Rasmussen today? He gained a point on Saturday polling? Unheard of.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 14, 2012 09:56 AM (dX4hn)

Yep, that has to hurt Obama supporters. I'd have to look at the numbers for since before the conventions but I don't recall that happening previously.

Posted by: Slappy at October 14, 2012 10:02 AM (LTbLf)

182 I guess we are all gonna just pretend there isn't a new thread up, just waiting for our intellectual input?

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 10:02 AM (xL7J/)

183 Although- speaking of the Denver Obama office shooting, I must say that my first thought when I read the original story was that it was either an inside job or a Dem sympathizer trying to stir up anti-R sentiment. We shall see...

Posted by: Seamus Muldoon at October 14, 2012 10:03 AM (/LkSO)

184 174 Romney up 2 in tracking and in swing state poll 49-47 both

Posted by: Honey Badger @robfit at October 14, 2012 10:03 AM (g7vVd)

185 182 I guess we are all gonna just pretend there isn't a new thread up, just waiting for our intellectual input?

Posted by: Village Idiot's Apprentice at October 14, 2012 10:02 AM (xL7J/)

We roll that way. It's the same reason why you show up fashionably late to a social event.

Posted by: Slappy at October 14, 2012 10:04 AM (LTbLf)

186 So Bammy is going to stop campaigning in Oiho to focus on other states, right? Right?

Posted by: Obladioblada at October 14, 2012 10:31 AM (p1D8B)

187 And Oiho progs can stay home in November cause Bammy already has the state all sewn up.

Posted by: Obladioblada at October 14, 2012 10:35 AM (p1D8B)

188

More on Ohio -- interview with Zogby:

Pollster John Zogby explains why Ohio has become an uphill battle for Obama

http://tinyurl.com/9z7ayog

Posted by: more at October 14, 2012 10:39 AM (LpQbZ)

189
I am laughing....My entire family lives in Cuyahoga County except me in Florida. All 47 of them....The Stories have been in the area...DEM REGS are down, the fewer ballots requested over 170,000 less than 2008, Republicans have Regs Up and they gap is like 60,000 between Dems and Gop in Absentee Ballots....From a 15 percent Dem adv in 2008 to a 6 percent in 2012(Absentee)...That is a disaster for Obama. The news overthe news the last week..CHECK OUT THE COLUMBUS DISPATCH HEADLIME: ROMNEY ON THE RISE IN OHIO!! In AP, Romney crowds are surging....in Lebanon, OH, which is not a big city,close to 11,000 people showed up at Romney Rally. He is playing to 10,000s at each stopin Ohio. Ryan yesterday was in Youngstown Oh which is another Dem area....The Reps are now campaigning in OHon the Dems turf...Obama is campaigning on his own turf.....that means one thing...Obama is worried with his numbers in OH while Romney is comfortablegoing into Obama's area. THAT IS A GREAT SIGN FOR ROMNEY!!

As well, yesterday over 500 minerssent a leade to Obama BLASTING him for falsely using them inADS and telling Obama to stop....and that it is Obama causing the loss ofcoal jobs in OHIO. It was covered on the front page of the Intelligencer Newspaper in Southeast Oh...COAL COUNTRY!!

Obama is having to send Bruce Springsteen to OH...that means Obama is worried about Blue Collar Support and he is singing in Obama's Turf!!

CAC is right go look at the Secretary of State of Oh....there is not a chance that 20 percent of the vote is in....LOL!! 60,000 out of 8,000,000 and even with the Absentees in...NOT EVEN CLOSE....In fact, Cuyahoga County had a reductionin the Number of Dem Absentees for 2012 while the Repub actually increased in Cuyahoga County!!!

Remember this is from ballots that could have been out for months as well. Here is what is happening:

The polls are moving away from Obama andit is getting worse. He is falling further behind in Florida, Virginia, NorthCarolina,Nevada, New Hampshire and Ohio....(look at NewsMax Zogby in OH...and ARG...Obama is down...) So the Usual Suspects are using a different tact:

LOOK OBAMA IS LEADING IN EARLYRETURNS!! Not actual polls mind you...Polling the alleged people that have already voted and their numbers do not even come close to matching up...PPP and others are desperate to give Obama something to ride and show so the media can stop Romney's Momentum....LOL!! Will not work....these ballots many were mailed in weeks ago...and early voting...I would imagine knowing PPP they used a very very very small sample...Dem Skewed....WOW SHOCKING!!

You want to know where a campaign is: LOOK WHERE THEY ARE CAMPAIGNING...and what partof that STATE...it tells you everything!

Obam needs to worry aboutPA and MI as well and Conn and NJ are getting tighter and tighter....LOL!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at October 14, 2012 10:45 AM (HDcKc)

190 The first time a Party source quotes this ballot statistic, there will be sufficient evidence for the Ohio Secretary of State to impound all early and absentee ballots and start dusting them for dead fingerprints. Shit's getting close to real.

I requested an absentee ballot. That's because I will spend election day as a precinct judge, taking notes and casually swinging the Cheney warcock. I wonder how many other "early voters" will be similarly engaged. I'm a moderate: mildly irked, and armed to the teeth. Don't fuck with my republic, or you'll get a blue-stained thumb in your eye.

Posted by: comatus at October 14, 2012 11:02 AM (qaVK+)

191 I would love to se R/R start swinging through PA,MI, Conn and NJ.. The panic would be wonderful..

Posted by: TheGarbone at October 14, 2012 11:03 AM (vtiE6)

192 Hard to believe the last four years have gone by so fast and the election is three weeks away.

My, this life is a whirlwind.


Posted by: GW McLintock at October 14, 2012 11:10 AM (1mj4+)

193 I requested an absentee ballot. That's because I
will spend election day as a precinct judge, taking notes and casually
swinging the Cheney warcock. I wonder how many other "early voters" will
be similarly engaged. I'm a moderate: mildly irked, and armed to the
teeth. Don't fuck with my republic, or you'll get a blue-stained thumb
in your eye.


Posted by: comatus at October 14, 2012 11:02


How confident are you and others who have requested the absentee ballot that they are actually 'counted'?

Is there a process to verify these ballots being tallied?

Posted by: GW McLintock at October 14, 2012 11:12 AM (1mj4+)

194 Ohio is a county in what state again ???????

Posted by: Numb Nuts in Californica at October 14, 2012 11:16 AM (lJ3rV)

195 The intent of the polling data spit out by this PPP is to depress and demoralize conservatives/Republicans/anybody who is voting for Romney. Don't fall for it. Get out there and vote.

Posted by: jb at October 14, 2012 11:19 AM (WRtN5)

196 "Stephanie Cutter Political Strategist, Professional Liar, and Administrations #2 Turd Polisher"
Yeah, but the Mouth of Sauron never looked so hot.

Posted by: MarkJ at October 14, 2012 11:22 AM (T+lGZ)

197 I'm one of those early Ohio voters. I don't know about Cuyahoga County, but around here (southwest Ohio), if yard signs are anything to go by, Romney is cleaning up.

Posted by: RebeccaH at October 14, 2012 11:25 AM (JAQT9)

198 Well, if someone receives an absentee ballot and fills it out but doesn't mail it immediately, or if the ballot is in transit, such a person would say they have "already voted" but the ballot would not have been counted as received.

Posted by: DaveO at October 14, 2012 11:33 AM (hOvvF)

199 137
Why does anyone bother with PPP? They are the propaganda arm of Daily
Kos. I have taken one of their polls and it bordered on insane with the
bias of the questions.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo intellectual at October 14, 2012 09:36 AM (wR+pz)




Q14 Do you think Josh Mandel is mature enough to
be a US Senator, or not?
He is ...................... .44%
He is not................. .42%
Not sure ................. .14%
Shove your push poll up your ass.... 99%

Posted by: Push Polling Penes at October 14, 2012 11:41 AM (pH5B+)

200 Ohio early voting is nothing like it was back in 2008. Back then it was really pushed in the big urban counties. It's statewide and Rs are matching 2010 levels. Ohio electorate D/R/I will be R+1 to R+3

http://tiny.cc/bqd6lw

Posted by: oh boy... at October 14, 2012 11:42 AM (ROUVS)

201 "Obama is having to send Bruce Springsteen to OH...that means Obama is worried about Blue Collar Support and he is singing in Obama's Turf!!"

My family lives in Brecksville, and for six months or so I lived in the People's Republic of Cleveland Heights. Bill and Bruce did the same show for Gore and Kerry, and it did no good. It's more a thanks to the loyal supporters. Bill always stops at Parma Pierogis, because they're really good.

As for my family, my brother is voting Romney. My sister became an Obama supporter. Mom voted for Perot, then W in 2004 and Obama. But this time she is switching her vote, I bet. She and my stepfather work with Cleveland Clinic manufacturing medical devices, and Obamacare is a big fat sales tax that they have to pay. I don't know how the administration is spinning it around there, but they know why the economy sucks. My family has definitely felt the pinch.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 11:46 AM (i0vBR)

202 Yeah, well, I live in Wood County and requested my ballot almost a month ago but have yet to receive it. Some malarkey about having misprinted ballots. I'm sure everything will be fine.....but we haven't been able to vote yet.

Posted by: wildwood15 at October 14, 2012 11:46 AM (UTY2+)

203 _______________________________

As always, excellent work CAC. Much thanks.




Posted by: _Dave_ at October 14, 2012 11:47 AM (/nxRb)

204 This early polling story is being played up big on Yahoo right now, too. With the focus being how Iowa is breaking bif for O in the early polling. I can't believe this shit. They really need their wind and corn ethanol subsidies that badly?

Posted by: jb at October 14, 2012 11:48 AM (WRtN5)

205 My sister is an overweight stay-at-home mother of twin girls, and her husband is union and so is his family. Between school activities and his sisters and mother, my sister gets a big does of indoctrination. Her vote is mostly on social issues. She's terrified of public immorality, but doesn't connect it with Dems, and believes her family needs a safety net.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 11:52 AM (i0vBR)

206 They really need their wind and corn ethanol subsidies that badly?
Posted by: jb at October 14, 2012 11:48 AM (WRtN5)

Yes, they do. These aren't farmers but bankers, and they always want more taxpayer dollars. You just buy their vote. Obama has been doing it for a while. He's from neighboring IL. Daschle was his national campaign co-chair in 2008 then had an administration position till tax cheating came out. But he's still a valuable ally for Obama and especially in IA. As president, he goes there every chance he gets. He knows it will be close. I hoped Ryan would help in the western third. He is pulling WI along and Walker helps there. But I think those two states are connected. WI won't happen without IA, but I could be wrong.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 11:57 AM (i0vBR)

207 The headline at HuffPo right now is a Reuters/Ipsos poll showing similar results. The sample size was 361 people and the MoE is 10.

Commenters seem more subdued than usual about it. I don't think even they are huffing that up.

Posted by: stace at October 14, 2012 11:58 AM (TUdam)

208 OT I sometimes DVR Reliable Sources and I did so today. I just FF thru it to see if they have a fair panel and I'll watch just that. Most of the time I watch none of it, of course. But today the last 15 minutes is worth watching. It's the Friday Night Lights writer that came out for Romney. Howie grills him but he gives it right back.

Posted by: East Bay Jay at October 14, 2012 12:03 PM (7v8o1)

209 Meaning fewer Obama votes on Nov. 6, unless the early voters are those who vote early vote often.
"76-24 Obama", not even on those HopeyChangey days.

Posted by: elkh1 at October 14, 2012 12:33 PM (CIcZv)

210 I printed out RCP's daily sheet. Romney could very well run the table at this point in the race. He leads now comfortably in FL and NC, and he is pulling into a lead in VA and CO. McCain has been stumping for him in NH, which will help win over remorseful Obama voters in the Granite State. That gives Romney 253.OH and NV are both down to a point and a half. With both states, Romney 277.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 12:44 PM (i0vBR)

211 Check the pics at gatewaypundit: Romney's crowds are HUGE, Obama style, says Zeleny of the NYT.

Posted by: PJ at October 14, 2012 12:44 PM (DQHjw)

212 According to the 2010 Post-election Akron Buckeye Poll, 18.5% of absentee voters had voted four weeks before the election (http://www.uakron.edu/bliss/research/archives/2010/EarlyVotingReport.pdf). It is possible that 19% of absentee votes have been cast, and it is possible that 76% of this 19% voted for Obama. That is a far cry from claiming that 19% of all votes have been cast nearly a month before the election.

Posted by: Bill M at October 14, 2012 01:02 PM (B5XJH)

213 All I know about polling this week was that we spent the last two days polling the shit out of Michigan. All day Friday and all day Saturday.

The numbers were fugly for Obama. On a Saturday. In Michigan.

Michigan.

Be not afraid.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at October 14, 2012 01:09 PM (dcoFe)

214
Check Hamilton County absentee requests and returns here.
http://tinyurl.com/8uno6su

Posted by: MH at October 14, 2012 01:22 PM (Oj2sd)

215 every supposed demoralization recruits and motivates another 5% for Romney.

democrats are well known for their understanding of human nature. we might as well, 'from each according to his ability, to each according to his need'.

Posted by: apetra at October 14, 2012 01:45 PM (SmDZ1)

216 I will say it again - on the last day to register, the Obama rally on OSU campus could only manage to bus in max 600 people (saw the buses myself, ten of them with a max capacity of 50-60 each). Poll workers were told to expect 2-3,000. I was working the polls that night, this isn't just hearsay.

That is pathetic. Laughably pathetic.

Posted by: tdpwells at October 14, 2012 01:57 PM (7vA7k)

217 I just analyzed Hamilton absentee data....


Hamilton County
2004 Bush won by 5.4
2008 Obama won 5.2

2012 Absentee Ballots through Sat Oct 13

REP
22661 requests
7976 returned

DEM
13471 requests
6392 returned

More data later....

Posted by: roy at October 14, 2012 02:47 PM (ROUVS)

218 I live in CT and the Obama campaign.. Not PAC and not DNC running ads here! WTH?!?

Posted by: Callie Q at October 14, 2012 03:31 PM (g0g0k)

219 I was going to vote absentee as i travel so much but I frankly don't trust that process a hundred percent and I didn't think I would get the same satisfaction to actually voting against Obama and for Romney on Nov 6. I am guessing there are thousands who feel the same

Posted by: Rogerthat at October 14, 2012 03:40 PM (g0g0k)

220 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 14, 2012 03:50 PM (6o4Fb)

221 Saturday Night Live poked fun at Vice President Biden in this funny opening monologue...

http://commoncts.blogspot.com/2012/10/snl-pokes-fun-at-vp-joe-biden-as-well.html

Posted by: Steve at October 14, 2012 03:53 PM (8gUKR)

222 I was going to vote absentee as i travel so much but I frankly don't
trust that process a hundred percent and I didn't think I would get the
same satisfaction to actually voting against Obama and for Romney on
Nov 6. I am guessing there are thousands who feel the same.
--

Ditto on both points. I think there will be massive turnout but I don't care if I have to wait in line for hours. The satisfaction of voting this election will be worth it and after nearly four long years, any wait time is a drop in the bucket.

Posted by: Mayday at October 14, 2012 04:23 PM (F3s39)

223 oops, i'm on the wrong thread

Posted by: Mayday at October 14, 2012 04:24 PM (F3s39)

224 Rasmussen has a much more prominent house effect then PPP. In 2008, early voting hit 30% of the electorate. My guess is that it hits near 40% because of the Obama field operation there. He has 96 offices there compared to Romney's 36.
Culturally, the research shows lower income/blacks/college students/females are much more likely to vote early. The GOP loves to vote more in-person.

My prediction is that:
Obama wins early voting 61-39.
Early voting accounts for 40% of voters.

Romney wins day of voters 54-44 (60% of voters)

Obama wins the state 50.8-48 . That is my conservative guess.

Posted by: Brian at October 14, 2012 05:33 PM (vYTda)

225
Romney's going to win Va despite the commie long-hair old bat freaks, and even the ugly hags who were singing and playingguitar the other eveningwho have been at my subway stop in Arlington (Courthouse, home of lefty kooks). Saw a hispanic guy in a truck todaty with a Romney bumper sticker, certainly NOT the typical Mitt demo. Mitt's killing it down in Southern and Western VA which is where the margin for Obama and Webb came from. Allen might be able to pull it out too.
Dave in FLA is right, Mitt picking up points on the weekend is huge.

Posted by: Stephanie Cutter's hooch at October 14, 2012 05:46 PM (O0v9Z)

226 Knowing how Ohio works there is definitely a massive lag in the ballot requests being processed as ballots returned. The link below. I do strongly believe the polling is undercutting blacks hispanics due to socioeconomic language reasons.

As a independent liberal, I don't see how anyone could vote for Romney when it comes to tax policy, healthcare, abortion rights, foreign policy, gay rights, etc. However, it would be very appealing if Romney would admit global warming is real, distance himself form the religious right, stop erasing all of his policy beliefs.



Posted by: Brian at October 14, 2012 05:46 PM (vYTda)

227 Swing state update
Obama - Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire
Romney- Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Colorado


Posted by: Brian at October 14, 2012 05:48 PM (vYTda)

228 Good Morning Morons. Today is Sunday, October 14, 2012. On this day in 1066 William The Conqueror defeated King Harold II to become King of England at the battle of Hastings.

Posted by: Vic at October 14, 2012 08:58 AM (YdQQY)


F**king Normans...

Posted by: Se Léodweardprætt Hæt at October 14, 2012 06:12 PM (sZTYJ)

229 Here are 40 reasons why Barack Hussein Obama should not be re-elected

40 reasons why Barack Hussein Obama should not be re-elected

Posted by: FedupWithFed at October 14, 2012 07:03 PM (PeRlA)

230 Oops. Below is the link to

"40 reasons why Barack Hussein Obama should not be re-elected"

http://www.audacityofhypocrisy.com/2012/08/24/40-reasons-not-to-re-elect-barack-obama/

Posted by: FedupWithFed at October 14, 2012 07:04 PM (PeRlA)

231 Troll doesn't understand the difference between prediction and update, but that's why it's an Obama supporter.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 14, 2012 10:45 PM (i0vBR)

232 Dear Liberal:
"tax policy" - Obama raises taxes and increases the deficit and kills jobs. How is that a good thing?
", healthcare" - Obamacare destroys healthcare innovation and choice, is unaffordable, and kills jobs. Repealing it is the only humane thing to do.
"abortion rights" Biology101: The unborn are human beings; Ethics 101: It's not a good thing to kill human beings.
"foreign
policy" Obama lied. Our ambassador died.
", gay rights" Romney supports gay rights. He also supports families and traditional marriage. Why not be tolerant and let the two co-exist? Why so aggressive?
" would admit global warming is real" It's as real as the Easter Bunny.
Global warming stopped 16 years ago - check out Watts Up With That on that.

"distance himself form the religious
right" Why 'distance' yourself from real Americans who only want to raise their children in a Christian way?

"stop erasing all of his policy beliefs" Nice strawman you got there.

So you will vote of Obama on the basis of a pack of lies, misunderstandings, misdirections and ignorance of real biology, ethics and economics. Figures.

Posted by: Harry P Ness Reid at October 15, 2012 12:22 AM (WhCZZ)

233 (viz S. Cutter) "Yeah, but the Mouth of Sauron never looked so hot."

I thought Soledad O'Brien had that slogan trademarked.

Posted by: Harry P Ness Reid at October 15, 2012 12:23 AM (WhCZZ)

234 We just have different opinions.
1) America only industrialized country to have a conservative party not to believe in global warming
2) A woman's right to choose is key --I support abortion rights and funding for contraception /planned parenthood- Personhood amendments are garbage and economically crippling for women.
3) Obamacare needs fixes-- but it covers millions more then the alternative
4) Gay rights - are an important issue in which the GOP even fought against repealing DADT-- what will they do when the Supreme Court repeals the Defense of Marriage Act 5-4
5) Taxes -- Top rate must move to 39%. That is my position.
6) Protect Unions and Labor

Posted by: Brian at October 15, 2012 09:38 AM (vYTda)






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