Romney's Debate Performance Edges Him Within Striking Distance of Obama in Michigan

Still behind -- but a ten point lead has become a three-point edge.

Margin of error.

Obama’s 10 percentage point lead (47%-37%) in a poll conducted last month by EPIC-MRA of Lansing dropped to 3 points (48% to 45%), according to the poll of 600 likely voters conducted by EPIC-MRA of Lansing. The gap between Romney and Obama was within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Undecided voters shrank from the September survey’s 16% to just 7%.

Meanwhile, the Susquehanna Poll has Romney within two in Pennsylvania, post-debate.

In a poll conducted just after the first presidential debate, from Oct. 4 to 6, 47 percent of respondents said they support Obama; 45 percent support Romney. 3 percent support Libertarian Gary Johnson.

Via @justkarl, liberals everywhere are suddenly very interested in partisan splits, after mocking conservatives for raising flags over D+8, D+9, D+10 polls.

In an earlier post, I noted @chucktodd tweeting the partisan splits in the Pew poll, when he previously insisted that You Takes the Partisan Splits As You'se Finds 'Em And You Don't Question Them.

The Washington Post's Chris Cilizza also is a sudden believer that partisan splits deserve scrutiny. Here's Cilizza a couple of weeks ago:

After the release of any — and every — swing state or national poll these days, the Fix Twitter feed and email inbox immediately fill up with messages that are some variation on this: “Party ID skewed! D+8!”

That’s political shorthand for a belief that the party identification in the poll — the composition of the sample of people who are being polled — is misaligned to the actual partisan composition of either a state or the country and, therefore, is producing results that are not reflective of the actual state of the race.

The problem with that argument? It’s based on limited information and a series of false assumptions none bigger than that because the country has been virtually evenly divided on partisan lines for the past decade or so that the party identification question should result in something close to a 50-50 split between Democrats and Republicans. That’s not right.

Um, no, but not D+8, 9, 10 or 12, either.


...

And, perhaps most importantly, remember that the exit poll captures the composition of the last electorate — not the composition of the next electorate. If pollsters had assumed that the 2008 electorate would have looked similar to the 2004 electorate, they would have badly missed the massive surge to Obama. Ditto if pollsters had used the 2006 midterm party composition (in which Democrats scored across the board victories) as the baseline for the 2010 midterm electorate, which much more strongly favored Republicans.

What all of the above points to is the reality that polling is equal parts art and science. The best of the best — like the folks at the Post — understand that putting together the sample for any poll involves weighing what we know the electorate looked like in the past with what it looks like today and what it will look like on Nov. 6.

...

Alleging bias is, of course, easier than digging deep into the realities of why party ID in polling looks the way it does. But that doesn’t make it right.

Got that? Just because the voter turnout was such-and-such two, four, or eight years ago, does not mean pollsters should ponder whether the partisan ID found in polls mirrors any previous election.

We can't look to the past to determine tomorrow's electorate, after all.

The Washington Post's Chris Cilizza says so, so you should believe him.

Which makes me wonder why today, of all days, he immediately knocks down the Pew survey by comparing it to partisan splits in recent elections:

That pesky party ID question: The Pew sample for this poll was 36 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. That’s a major shift from the organization’s September poll which was 29 percent Republican, 39 percent Democratic and 30 percent independent. In the 2010 election, the electorate was 36 percent Republican, 36 percent Democratic and 27 percent independent, according to exit polling. In 2008, 39 percent of the electorate identified as Democrats while 32 percent said they were Republicans and 29 percent said they were independents.

Ah! So suddenly it is important to compare a poll's partisan split to likely, plausible turnout figures, based on turnout from past elections!

But two weeks ago you told me we just goshdarn couldn't predict what the electorate would look like, so we shouldn't examine such things!

To steal a line from Barack Obama: Today I met an energetic young fellow named Chris Cilizza. But this couldn't be the real Chris Cilizza, because he reversed all of the positions he's been announcing for the past year!

Posted by: Ace at 06:55 PM



Comments

1 LALALA I can't hear you!

Posted by: Greg is a delusional twat at October 08, 2012 06:56 PM (/YJYi)

2 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 06:56 PM (6o4Fb)

3 Cocoon me, baby! I love this stuff.

Posted by: Emperor of Icecream at October 08, 2012 06:57 PM (ZMzpb)

4 It's not a wave!
*sob!*

Posted by: Gerg at October 08, 2012 06:58 PM (kg0Rr)

5
FINISH HIM!

Posted by: GUY WHO YELLS 'FINISH HIM!' at October 08, 2012 06:58 PM (F6KtL)

6 Ace, you're practically giving CAC a Dirty Sanchez at this point.

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 06:59 PM (z9HTb)

7 All my Democrats are coming back home.

Posted by: The Ghost of Ronald Reagan at October 08, 2012 06:59 PM (V/U0X)

8 ace, you really do hate CAC, don'tcha?

Posted by: Tami at October 08, 2012 06:59 PM (X6akg)

9
SUCK IT WINGNUTS, LIKE HOW I SUCK COCK!

Posted by: Greg at October 08, 2012 07:00 PM (F6KtL)

10 This would make an excellent blog post!

Posted by: garrett at October 08, 2012 07:00 PM (LQyLL)

11 Cilizza sounds like a skin disease, like eczema.

Posted by: logprof at October 08, 2012 07:00 PM (V/U0X)

12 I was for it, before I was against it. Wait, what?

Posted by: Chris Jizzya at October 08, 2012 07:01 PM (vbh31)

13 Suck it, Greg.

Posted by: logprof at October 08, 2012 07:01 PM (V/U0X)

14 Does anyone have projected electoral college numbers? Isn't that the end game, getting to 270.

Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 08, 2012 07:01 PM (C2//T)

15 I'm pretty sure you can catch Cilizza from a toilet seat.

Posted by: garrett at October 08, 2012 07:01 PM (LQyLL)

16 Fill my eyes
with these double postings

Posted by: Lou Gramm at October 08, 2012 07:02 PM (CPX+P)

17 It's too late, Ace. CAC is probably crying in the shower, already.

Posted by: garrett at October 08, 2012 07:02 PM (LQyLL)

18 Gerg thinks the Cilizza is a myth.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 07:02 PM (6o4Fb)

19 hahaha... i didn't know he'd posted.

Posted by: ace at October 08, 2012 07:02 PM (LCRYB)

20 Wow, look at those Michigan numbers. Obama moved up by only 1 point vs. Romney moving up 7 points, and there are still 7% undecided! Mittmentum!

Posted by: TD at October 08, 2012 07:03 PM (+uFux)

21 Man, Ace is really giving CAC the ole' Romney today.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 08, 2012 07:03 PM (UvR6d)

22 Gerg thinks the Cilizza is a myth.

Little man in a boat.

Posted by: Chris Jizzya at October 08, 2012 07:03 PM (vbh31)

23 Ace is polling CAC but good.

Hey CAC, you might wanna put some ice on that.

Posted by: eastvalleyphx says fuck islam at October 08, 2012 07:04 PM (wJX79)

24 Man, Obama REALLLYY blew that debate. He looked like an idiot in front of the whole country and world.
In 2008, all he had to do was say "Bush's Fault" and "I will fix everything."
Now he has to defend his actions, something he has never had to do.
They have to bus in a crowd for his rallies and pay protestors to attack his opposition.
What a total fucking piece of shit.

Posted by: Beto at October 08, 2012 07:04 PM (BAnPT)

25 Shit a lot of math on today's test, urh I mean threads?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at October 08, 2012 07:04 PM (j1gX1)

26 CAC!!!

Posted by: CAC Screaming in Latin at October 08, 2012 07:04 PM (V/U0X)

27 This thread needs a bare-chested Mitt:
http://tinyurl.com/99orxpn

Posted by: kallisto at October 08, 2012 07:05 PM (jm/9g)

28 As Vic has repeatedly pointed out, the polls are all crap. What is important though is the changing narrative these newer polls are implying. No longer is it 'a TFG win is inevitable'.

I'll take that for now. Just 28 days to go.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 08, 2012 07:06 PM (ccXZP)

29 67 million people saw Obama being a SCoaMF.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 07:06 PM (6o4Fb)

30 "19 hahaha... i didn't know he'd posted. "

you had more cilizza in your post

Posted by: newrouter at October 08, 2012 07:06 PM (kfeRL)

31 Ace and CAC going 2-wide into turn 3!!

Posted by: Darrell Waltrip at October 08, 2012 07:06 PM (CPX+P)

32 If I had any money to my name, I'd put in all on Obama at Intrade, and so should you!

Posted by: Yertle the Gergle at October 08, 2012 07:07 PM (V/U0X)

33 WTF? I just got all psyched up to buy Romney (not much, just for the hell of it) shares at Intrade. Signed up, confirmed my application, etc., went to buy 20 shares at $3.56 and then got to the payment page, bank card in hand. "US customers must pay by cashier's check, personal check (after 10 days!), or carrier pigeon, no credit or debit cards issued in the US". Stupid fucking regulations. Not even paypal?

Posted by: Lincolntf at October 08, 2012 07:07 PM (HethX)

34 How about some NSFW Stacey Dash?



http://tinyurl.com/9q7dwak

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:07 PM (/YJYi)

35 Ace, your email, check it.

Posted by: Truman North at October 08, 2012 07:08 PM (eh2Ql)

36 Coherent sentences can be a powerful thing.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:08 PM (boomF)

37 you racist Rethuglicans, looking at a black Romney supporter as a sex object...it sickens me.

Posted by: Toure at October 08, 2012 07:09 PM (60GaT)

38 Shit. Next thing ya know, ace will be sleeping with CAC's wife.

Posted by: Hulk Hogan at October 08, 2012 07:09 PM (vbh31)

39
Attack!

Posted by: Romney E. Lee at October 08, 2012 07:09 PM (0CiTm)

40 I need an intervention, I'm watching Anderson cooper talking about real house wives of New Jersey

Posted by: phoenixgirl, still angry & ever vilgiliant at October 08, 2012 07:09 PM (bIlmp)

41 Blasphemy!

Posted by: Hulk Hogan at October 08, 2012 07:09 PM (vbh31)

42 Shit. Next thing ya know, ace will be sleeping with CAC's wife.

. . . AGAIN

Posted by: BlackOrchid-StillMissingDagny at October 08, 2012 07:09 PM (J6kXj)

43 Gerg, pathetic twat
Idiotic Axeltroll
Please die in a fire

Posted by: 9% haiku at October 08, 2012 07:10 PM (aHR5E)

44
Does anyone really believe anything the MFM says anymore?

I trust the sports scores and the weather reports. I do not trust any of the sports stories about why the game went the way it did, and I am even very skeptical of the weather forecasts too.

Politics? Last time I saw a local news story, they played a Democrat political ad as their backdrop during the entire story.

Posted by: rd does not trust the MSM at October 08, 2012 07:10 PM (zLp5I)

45 But it's almost as if Leftist JournoLists aren't completely objective and God-like...

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:10 PM (boomF)

46

you got some clizza right there . . . no, on your chin.

Posted by: tod von oben at October 08, 2012 07:10 PM (UaxA0)

47 I'll eat my shoe if Mitt wins PA.. probably not going to happen but if SCOAMF has to waste money there.. hilarious.
I will never understand Michigan always voting Dem.

Romney will win, FL, Ohio, Wisconsin. Iowa. NH, and Colorado.. probably Nevada. that will be an electoral landslide.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 08, 2012 07:11 PM (DGIjM)

48 Also: Vic isnt the only one who says polls are crap.

I've been saying it on every poll thread too.

But hey, I'm no Vic, and I can accept that.

Posted by: Truman North at October 08, 2012 07:11 PM (eh2Ql)

49 CAC, now you need to see if Ace cn make a bigger map!

Posted by: Jean at October 08, 2012 07:12 PM (hrAg/)

50 It's a long, long wait until that town hall debate too. They could try to get dirtier, but the brilliant whiz kids on his team decided to play that game as early as May. Romney just punctured all those caricatures with 90 minutes of well planned, well reasoned arguments. Beyond the improving poll results, Romney really has them in a bind tactically here.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 08, 2012 07:12 PM (UvR6d)

51 Ace, enough is enough. CAC must feel like Barack Obama at a debate by now.

Posted by: Elize Nayden at October 08, 2012 07:12 PM (xDK+m)

52 It's all part of Obama's cunning scheme. Trust me on this.

Posted by: Charles Blackity Black Blow at October 08, 2012 07:13 PM (60GaT)

53 How about some NSFW Stacey Dash?

http://tinyurl.com/9q7dwak

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:07 PM (/YJYi)


Well, my day seems a little less gloomy.

Posted by: The Political Hat at October 08, 2012 07:13 PM (XvHmy)

54 Did Vic promise to link to a photograph of his junk when mitt wins? I didn't think so!

Posted by: Truman North at October 08, 2012 07:13 PM (eh2Ql)

55 Take the gun, leave the cilizza.

Posted by: garrett at October 08, 2012 07:15 PM (LQyLL)

56 But.. but.. but.. ,
7.8%!!!11!!

Sincerely,
Greg

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 08, 2012 07:15 PM (UTq/I)

57 Ace, there's some crucial nuance you're missing here. I'll get back to you on what exactly it is

Posted by: Chris Cilizza at October 08, 2012 07:15 PM (60GaT)

58 So....deep inside the Gerg infested Obismal swamp, what sort of tricks is Axelfraud cooking up? They already managed to whip the 'overpriced at one dollar' Newsweek back into line before they managed to sin against the Chosen One, but that can't be the only fire they're trying desperately to stomp out.

Worse, they've lost the offensive momentum they've enjoyed to date....thanks to the Obama cock gobbling media, and it's certainly obvious to them that without that momentum, they're toast. There is less than a month to go before the election, and Obama is sitting on a metric ass-load of cash....IMO, they're going to use it all on a last ditch, bridge burning effort to smear Romney/Ryan in ways that will make even the most corrupt of Chicago politicians cringe, and blush in shame.

Expect some cooked up damaging news stories being broken by the usual suspects over the next two weeks.

Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 08, 2012 07:16 PM (L7hol)

59 57

There is also some crucial nuance you're missing. It's in ace's pants. And now it's in your mouth.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:17 PM (boomF)

60 Thanks to Obamacare, you no longer have to hear your insurance company tell you your Cilizza is a pre-existing condition.

Posted by: Barky O at October 08, 2012 07:17 PM (V/U0X)

61 CAC, now you need to see if Ace cn make a bigger map!

You mean one with all 57 states?

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 07:17 PM (KgRgY)

62 CAC, while you're out getting some refreshments, don't bother to hurry back. And be a good lad and pick up some smokes.

Posted by: Fritz at October 08, 2012 07:17 PM (vm7ot)

63 I'm gonna embed Stevie Nick's "Landslide" over at Daily Kooks on Nov 7th.

Embed, you ask? It's one of those modern internet thingies we refuse to give in to here at the HQ.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 08, 2012 07:18 PM (UTq/I)

64 >>As Vic has repeatedly pointed out, the polls are all crap.

Actually, the polls aren't crap. The information is valid, what matters is having the ability to understand the party ID. Always has, always will.

Sure, some polls are just wrong. But if you apply the party ID in a rational manner to any poll you can get an idea of how things really stand.

This race was never a +8 Dem race. The party registration numbers never supported that let alone the enthusiasm gap. Ohio alone is down over 500,000 registered Dems from '08 and yet you had polls showing a bigger Dem turnout than in '08. It is practically mathematically impossible and totally illogical.

The electorate right now is probably a +2 or 3 Republican and the breakdown probably looks something along the line of 35R 31D and 34I.

Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in '08 and they were that way pretty much the entire race. I would expect they will be pretty close this time but they are currently behind the huge Republican surge. They will catch up soon.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 07:18 PM (TMB3S)

65 Look at ace having fun again.

Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 07:19 PM (VSfsH)

66 If you take the partisan Id you get, and don't adjust for turnout, then why collect partisan Id during general polling? The question has to be a statistical mess.

Posted by: Jean at October 08, 2012 07:19 PM (UjSt7)

67 Even with Obama's mighty media behind him he is losing.....

Obama should be polling at 30%.....

Too many idiots still believe hope & change....

Posted by: izoneguy at October 08, 2012 07:19 PM (oKH8p)

68 67

You can only polish a turd so much before your hands are covered in poop.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:21 PM (boomF)

69 All this bullshit racist manipulation of statistics to make your right-wing hate for our beloved multiracial President seem acceptable. These numbers games by the Wall Street machine and the "international bankers" just seek to put another War Party president in the White House.

Support your President. Vote Obama for peace, prosperity, and social justice.

Posted by: Mary Cloggenstein from Brattleboro, VT at October 08, 2012 07:22 PM (dqSmk)

70 Like I said in the CAC thread, according to Obama
Fanboi logic, Barry could underperform across the country by 10+
points in deep-blue places like WI, CT and NJ, but somehow that's
magically going to translate to BARRY WINZ!!!!!! in all the
"battleground" states.

Meanwhile the DNC Propaganda Wing continues to tell us that President BackNine will take not only PA and MI, but also Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Florida, Virginia and probably North
Carolina. Because SHUT UP!!! That's why.

Posted by: DocJ at October 08, 2012 07:22 PM (V20sy)

71 I'm in love with Stacey Dash.

That is all.

Posted by: Crazee (@Crazizzle) at October 08, 2012 07:22 PM (626t3)

72 Oh boy. Not again

Posted by: Ronster at October 08, 2012 07:23 PM (H5i76)

73
Expect some cooked up damaging news stories being broken by the usual suspects over the next two weeks.
Posted by: Sticky Wicket at October 08, 2012 07:16 PM (L7hol)



I think we can rule out a 10 year old DUI in Maine for Mitt.
Maybe they can find a story on how he tried to convert some Jehovah's Witnesses that came to the door?

More than likely, it will be something stupid and tawdry about one of his grandchildren, and this will be something that will blow up in their faces.

Posted by: rd does not trust the MSM at October 08, 2012 07:23 PM (zLp5I)

74 72

What's that, Ronster? Poop yourself again?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:24 PM (boomF)

75 Support your President. Vote Obama for peace, prosperity, and social justice.

I was unaware those goals were in the Constitution. See? AoSHQ is like a civics class everyday!!

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 07:24 PM (KgRgY)

76 Note the common thread with all the polls, whether Obama is up by 1 or 8.

48%

All movement is always in Romney's support.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 08, 2012 07:24 PM (dX4hn)

77 Stacey Dash is like 46. That honestly makes her even hotter in my eyes. I love me a hot, older, woman. Especially one that happens to be sticking it to the Hollywood machine.

Posted by: Rich at October 08, 2012 07:24 PM (pnHKr)

78 I'm coming in late, so someone might have mentioned this, but it's not just one poll in Michigan either. There's a Dem poll, Baydoun/Foster, which also has Romney within three and which makes it less likely that this is an outlier.

Posted by: AD at October 08, 2012 07:24 PM (dfVq9)

79 68
67


You can only polish a turd so much before your hands are covered in poop.


I know a guy who can do that without using his hands.

Posted by: Reggie Love at October 08, 2012 07:25 PM (vjyZP)

80 How goes the thread?

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 07:25 PM (z9HTb)

81 @58... Did Newsweek cave?

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 08, 2012 07:25 PM (DGIjM)

82 @76

Yep, noticed that as well. President EmptyChair is never much above 47 (ahem) or 48 percent regardless of where Romney is.

Posted by: DocJ at October 08, 2012 07:26 PM (V20sy)

83 80

Quite well fluffy. And the fluffing?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:26 PM (boomF)

84 77
Stacey Dash is like 46. That honestly makes her even hotter in my eyes. I
love me a hot, older, woman.


Salma Hayek is 46.

Posted by: wooga at October 08, 2012 07:26 PM (vjyZP)

85 JackStraw, I simply do not trust pollsters to construct meaningful questions and to deliver them without bias.

The whole process is a crock.

Posted by: Truman North at October 08, 2012 07:27 PM (eh2Ql)

86 Tune in next week when geRg attempts to find his winkie. Fun galore.

Posted by: 70's TV Guide at October 08, 2012 07:27 PM (tFWsM)

87 Nate Silver has it up to 24% chance for Romney, and still has King Putt as the favorite in Florida and Virginia. That's one slow moving model.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 08, 2012 07:28 PM (UvR6d)

88 Nobody wants to be support a Loser ...unless your name is Joe Biden.

Posted by: dogfish at October 08, 2012 07:28 PM (N2yhW)

89 These polls are skewed to keep Republicans watching the debates because the networks make money off the commercials. If they polls showed the truth that Obama is kicking Romneys ass then no republicans would tune in and the networks couldnt charge as much for commercials during debates as they do which means they wouldnt make as much money. But you all go head and belive its a horse race.

I am going back to munching my unicorn chocolate skittles comfortable in the fact that you republicans are not only racist, but stupid and gullible.

Posted by: Greg at October 08, 2012 07:28 PM (ovpNn)

90 You carry quite the grudge, Mirror. Getting treatment for your Aspberger's?

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 07:29 PM (z9HTb)

91 89

Ok.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:29 PM (boomF)

92 All we need now is a recent Oregon poll to turn the Dems suicidal.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 08, 2012 07:30 PM (dX4hn)

93 90

Still haven't learned to spell or not support Aktion T-4 yet, fluffer?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:30 PM (boomF)

94 Posted by: Greg at October 08, 2012 07:28 PM (ovpNn)

Thanks for that second paragraph. I had a minor blood pressure spike because of the first one.

It's all good now.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 07:30 PM (KgRgY)

95 Joe may be slow but be very afraid. He will come across as sincere. Ryan will be stiff. Then the polls will move again! Haaaaaaa.

Posted by: All the Ugly Liberal Feminists at October 08, 2012 07:30 PM (wBrho)

96
Polls
Why isn't one of the questions, Who did you vote for last time? Obama, McCain, other, or did not vote?

You would have a great way yo compare political changes. But that might be the reason?

Posted by: rd does not trust the MSM at October 08, 2012 07:31 PM (zLp5I)

97 One thing Romney must avoid - He can't f--k up like Obama at a debate if he hopes to win.

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 07:31 PM (jx2j9)

98 Wild poll swings. Pollsters samples of Rural vs. Urban. Not just DUmbass/R/I.

Just sayin'

Posted by: Rural 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 08, 2012 07:32 PM (tFWsM)

99 Careful now, we have to check our blasphemous, satanic sides before MUMR wrecks ourselves.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:32 PM (/YJYi)

100 96

Change is now racist.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:32 PM (boomF)

101 I think we must beware of the MSM and the comeback kid. They are setting this up for just that. They want a Clinton redux here, so let's keep our eyes open and not be surprised when they start this whole meme after the Biden/Ryan debate; it's gonna happen, so let's not be surprised.

Posted by: mastour at October 08, 2012 07:32 PM (Xf0bG)

102 So has anybody pounded Cizzla on twitter about this?

I love to hear their reactions after they get busted.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at October 08, 2012 07:33 PM (PHb2k)

103 One thing Romney must avoid - He can't f--k up like Obama at a debate if he hopes to win.

He could have back surgery and still tie Obama.

Posted by: Rick Perry at October 08, 2012 07:33 PM (FcR7P)

104 99

Coherent sentences, motherfucker.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:33 PM (boomF)

105 Plus 15 with independents is like 5% of the electorate correct ?

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (nTgAI)

106 Was Dole ever leading Clinton? I don't think so, but....

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (0CiTm)

107 All the election-day cascade needs to start is a NE-seaboard state flipping to red. Betcha the networks are going to 'learn their lessons' and not report exit polling for hours after polls closed in the east.

Posted by: Tonic Dog at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (X/+QT)

108 101

This.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (boomF)

109 mastour, shinebox. Stat.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (mxnUd)

110 Wife says BO couldn't even beat Rick Perry at naming Federal Departments.

Posted by: Beto at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (BAnPT)

111 I eagerly await the "I didn't want to be President anyway!!" articles in the MFM from November to December.

I am sure we'll all enjoy the Holder pardon on January 19th also.

Fuckers.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (KgRgY)

112
Polls
Why isn't one of the questions, Who did you vote for last time? Obama, McCain, other, or did not vote?


----------

This should be a question every time in every poll.. It's what allowed me to so quickly and easily dismiss the Columbus Dispatch Ohio poll last week, when they showed Obama up 9 amongst a group that had voted for Obama in 2008 by a 12 point margin in a state that only voted for him by 4. It might not tell you if a sample in a poll is a good, but it sure as hell tells you if its bad. I think even moreso than most of the demographics like race or religion.

Posted by: Rich at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (pnHKr)

113 Rasmussen was the most accurate pollster in '08 and they were that way pretty much the entire race. I would expect they will be pretty close this time but they are currently behind the huge Republican surge. They will catch up soon.
Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 07:18 PM (TMB3S)

++++++

JackStraw--I very much enjoy your comments and very much hope you are right!!

Posted by: Cricket at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (2ArJQ)

114 Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:32 PM (/YJYi)



Uh oh, you have angered the great and mighty Mum-Rah.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (GEICT)

115 That's one slow moving model. Posted by: Dave S.

And by model you mean pre-determined outcome used to frame everything between now and Nov.6.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (e7w2X)

116 'Ette alert: Megan Kelly's husband on Lou Dobbs.


Run, do not walk, to your remote....now!

Posted by: Tami at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (X6akg)

117 O/T:

You have to watch this. It needs to go viral. Young people speaking out on what is happening to the country we are leaving them, what we are doing to their future. It actually brought a tear to my eyes at the end.

http://tinyurl.com/8qcgsnk

Posted by: Lady in Black at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (lTVJy)

118 MUMR, shinebox. Stat. Also, butt plug.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (mxnUd)

119 >>JackStraw, I simply do not trust pollsters to construct meaningful questions and to deliver them without bias.

>>The whole process is a crock.

Just a little too black helicopter for me.

Are they fallible and some ridiculously partisan? Sure. But again, you can apply the bias weighting to those you know apply it over time and still come up with valid assumptions.

A week ago at this time polls like PPP and Pew had Romney well behind. But even then, if you applied the proper weighting as Dave in FL has been doing, you could come up with some rational idea of where the race really stood.

Romney was never as far behind as many of the media and lefty polls said and while he did get a bounce most of it has to do with applying a much more rational party ID model. I was never all that bothered by the polls that showed Romney getting smoked in Ohio because they were almost universally using +6 or +8 Dem models. Dumb and totally implausible.

If you took the polls and reworked them with a more realistic party ID model you had the race pretty much a toss up.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (TMB3S)

120

Oregon is never going to go Romney, but at least it's not going to be a 20 point blowout.

The OEA is just too organized to let this state go Repub. Unless we have a debate performance on the level of the last one's, it's not happening. Nice to make the Dems run ads here though.

Posted by: tod von oben at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (UaxA0)

121 I think we must beware of the MSM and the comeback kid. They are setting this up for just that. They want a Clinton redux here, so let's keep our eyes open and not be surprised when they start this whole meme after the Biden/Ryan debate; it's gonna happen, so let's not be surprised.
Posted by: mastour at October 08, 2012 07:32 PM (Xf0bG)

Some people just need to be one term presidents. Since we are racist we will not re-elect Obumbles

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (nTgAI)

122 114

Full moon?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:36 PM (boomF)

123 The problem is this.

Romney was himself.

So was Obama.

Now Obama has to be better than he is capable of being in a debate to compete.

Problem is he has a record now so HOPE and CHANGE aint gonna work

Frankly I think Romney could have even been better but was a bit nervous with the first one.

I expect Obama to put on a new and interesting mask next time.

I also Expect Romney to not only Improve but to be ready for whichever accent/persona El Preezydente shows up as.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 08, 2012 07:36 PM (ovpNn)

124 116 I'm guessin he ain't ugly.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 07:36 PM (6o4Fb)

125 118

Coherent sentences, motherfucker.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:36 PM (boomF)

126 He has so much anger in his little body.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 07:37 PM (GEICT)

127 I actually feel sorry for Greg. He spent all weekend trying to set up this "the bump is over, now all anyone will talk about is the 7.8%" with some data from Rasmussen's weekend polling.

Only to have it fall to pieces when the topic on everyone's lips is the polling itself, pushing the 7.8% out of the headlines.

It's like the polling God looked down upon him and said "Dude, we are so fucking with you today."

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 08, 2012 07:37 PM (dX4hn)

128 MUMR, suck a fat cock, you dumbass.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:38 PM (mxnUd)

129 If you don't know what shinebox means that's on you bro.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:38 PM (/YJYi)

130 126

Unlike you, you little bundle of love.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:38 PM (boomF)

131 The new post was just strangled in its crib.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 08, 2012 07:38 PM (QKKT0)

132 116 'Ette alert: Megan Kelly's husband on Lou Dobbs.
Run, do not walk, to your remote....now!


Yep! ....watching it too.

He's a doll......a real life Ken Doll.
And I don't mean that in a snarky way.

Posted by: wheatie at October 08, 2012 07:38 PM (l5RhJ)

133 128

You're a clever one.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:39 PM (boomF)

134 The problem is this.Romney was himself.So was Obama.Now Obama has to be better than he is capable of being in a debate to compete.Problem is he has a record now so HOPE and CHANGE aint gonna workFrankly I think Romney could have even been better but was a bit nervous with the first one.I expect Obama to put on a new and interesting mask next time.I also Expect Romney to not only Improve but to be ready for whichever accent/persona El Preezydente shows up as.
Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 08, 2012 07:36 PM (ovpNn)

I actually thought Rmoney was pulling punches so as to not sound too mean. his tone was right on. I think he was saving some for later

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 08, 2012 07:39 PM (nTgAI)

135 I actually feel sorry for Greg.

---

I don't. Either he gets paid to do this, or he really truly is insane, in which case he doesn't know he's getting butt-fucked here on a daily basis.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at October 08, 2012 07:39 PM (aHR5E)

136 Bring on the math witch!

Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 07:39 PM (EAgmr)

137 130


Never saw him lash out unprovoked over something said last week, ass-burger.

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 07:39 PM (z9HTb)

138 129

I like the people who are trolling me to use coherent sentences. Try to comply too.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:40 PM (boomF)

139 123 - That tracks with something I noticed. I purposely didn't watch the debate, I was too nervous. I saw everyone raving about it, so when I watched the clips I was surprised that Romney wasn't all that smooth. He had a few stutters and such. He can improve.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 08, 2012 07:40 PM (dX4hn)

140
Right. Shinebox.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:40 PM (mxnUd)

141 Yuck Lou Dobbs that's like splashing cold water on it.

Posted by: tasker at October 08, 2012 07:40 PM (r2PLg)

142 Ball of Meat, my nuts, your mouth, STAT; Fucktard.

Posted by: mastour at October 08, 2012 07:40 PM (Xf0bG)

143 >This thread needs a bare-chested Mitt:


somebody should side-by-side that with President BikeHelmet/Mom jeans

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 08, 2012 07:40 PM (8sCoq)

144 106 Was Dole ever leading Clinton? I don't think so, but....
Posted by: USS Diversity at October 08, 2012 07:34 PM (0CiTm)


No idea. I can not think of another election cycle that I was absolutely flaccid about.

Consider the (R)candidate.

Posted by: Rural 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 08, 2012 07:40 PM (tFWsM)

145 138


Way to lay down the law.

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 07:41 PM (z9HTb)

146
http://tinyurl.com/8qcgsnk
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (lTVJy)Good video. I sent it to my all my contacts.

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 07:41 PM (jx2j9)

147
I actually thought Rmoney was pulling punches so
as to not sound too mean. his tone was right on. I think he was saving
some for later



Posted by: The Jackhole at October 08, 2012 07:39 PM (nTgAI)

Absolutely.
Romney is the smartest man in that room. Don't doubt that for a minute.

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka wright at October 08, 2012 07:41 PM (ovpNn)

148 Romney is going to win MI. He's going to, YOU FEEL IT.

Posted by: @ParisParamus at October 08, 2012 07:41 PM (hRji9)

149 >>Cricket at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (2ArJQ)

Thanks.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 07:41 PM (TMB3S)

150 137

You started it in this thread, genius. You and your old friend Ronster.

But how goes the Aktion T-4ing?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:41 PM (boomF)

151 I don't. Either he gets paid to do this, or he really truly is insane,

I'm going with "both"

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 07:42 PM (KgRgY)

152 144 Yeah,Dole was the worst in my lifetime(Ford?)

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 07:42 PM (6o4Fb)

153 145

Glad you agree.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:42 PM (boomF)

154
You just can't cure stupid. Or, anal stretching.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:42 PM (mxnUd)

155 I'm just glad we have such a deep bench now. I'm tired of the whole, "it's his turn" mentality.

Posted by: mastour at October 08, 2012 07:43 PM (Xf0bG)

156 Looks like the troll has found a new phrase to repeat every other post. First it was that stupid "other cheek," then it was the even dumber, "stop helping EoJ" idiocy, and now its this ridiculous "coherent sentences." Coming from a dipshit that couldn't write a post that had more than 2 sentences its hilarious. jimi ray needs to have his post length limited, and this joke needs to have a minimum 4 sentence length imposed. Your shit is weak Ron/Lampshade/MUMR.

Posted by: buzzion - Free Kratos at October 08, 2012 07:43 PM (GULKT)

157 No idea. I can not think of another election cycle that I was absolutely flaccid about.


The Dole campaign was good for four hours of excitement. Then I had to see my doctor.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 08, 2012 07:43 PM (QKKT0)

158 154

I guess you'd know.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:43 PM (boomF)

159 150


Started what?


80


What a dick move.

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 07:43 PM (z9HTb)

160 156

Coherent sentences, motherfucker.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:44 PM (boomF)

161 159

You know what.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:44 PM (boomF)

162 I actually feel sorry for Greg. He spent all weekend trying to set up
this "the bump is over, now all anyone will talk about is the 7.8%" with
some data from Rasmussen's weekend polling.

Only to have it fall to pieces when the topic on everyone's lips is the polling itself, pushing the 7.8% out of the headlines.

It's like the polling God looked down upon him and said "Dude, we are so fucking with you today."


The polling God does that a lot. He must really not like that guy.

And, no, I don't feel sorry for him. He's been wrong on just about every single prediction he's ever made here and yet he still can't get it through his head that he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about. Even if it was just trolling, if I were him I'd be embarrassed to even show up at this point.

He's been provided enough evidence that he's wrong at this point to realize he doesn't have a clue what he's talking about.

Posted by: AD at October 08, 2012 07:44 PM (dfVq9)

163 119 Jack Straw,

You didn't address the self selection process of the polled. If only 9% of the called are actually responding, that leaves its own huge margin of error; vastly larger than the MOE the polls cite. Add in any bias in the questions themselves and the poll can be completely meaningless from a predictive standpoint.

Consider it like the AGW models, that can't even predict the past worth a shit, let alone the future. GIGO.

Posted by: GnuBreed at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (ccXZP)

164 Give it up fluffy. You can't argue with a 15 yr old. And an ignorant, poorly educated one at that.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (GEICT)

165 You boys continue on fighting while the ettes drool over Kelly's husband. And the math witch.

Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (EAgmr)

166 Just so you know guys, hoping God judges someone's soul justly, blasphemous. How? Still waiting for an explanation.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (/YJYi)

167 Yeah, I saw a report about it on PBS. They got a gov't grant to see if having your head up your ass causes trama. You mad, bro?

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (mxnUd)

168 Oh for fuck's sake, I don't know what the fight is over, but I'm tired of seeing the same fucking post again and again.

Posted by: Rich at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (pnHKr)

169 Not Ford. He almost pulled it out at the end. Honestly, I'm going with McCain. I think he is the worst GOP candidate in my lifetime.

I knew we were in a lot of trouble when he won the Florida primary.

Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (dX4hn)

170 161


You're a very angry young whatever. Lucky you.

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (z9HTb)

171 164

You win.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (boomF)

172 I just got home from work. Did you guys see the Ryan interview with some putz in Michigan? He cut him off at the knees, like a boss. It's on Mediaite.

Posted by: lowandslow at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (GZitp)

173 You just can't cure stupid. Or, anal stretching.

I am hoping the only reason you know that is from reading scholarly papers in the New England Journal of Medicine

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (KgRgY)

174 *limping about and yelling*

Posted by: CAC at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (LjwEk)

175 So ace is treating Cilizza and CAC like Obama at a debate? That's only half a ball-dipping.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (eHIJJ)

176 166

I gave you one. You were too stupid to understand it.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (boomF)

177 Axelrod was telling a guy at a bar yesterday that the last time he caught the clap he waited so long that it was like Obama at a debate everytime he tried to pee.

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (jx2j9)

178 "Don;t get cocky kid. Still need to win on Nov 6th." - The sayings of Han Romney Solo.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 07:47 PM (c8YhH)

179 170

You win.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:47 PM (boomF)

180 Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (boomF)

You are really tiresome.

Posted by: Cicero (@cicero) at October 08, 2012 07:47 PM (QKKT0)

181 You and your old friend Ronster.

Me?

Posted by: Ronster at October 08, 2012 07:47 PM (H5i76)

182
169 Not Ford. He almost pulled it out at the end. Honestly, I'm going with McCain. I think he is the worst GOP candidate in my lifetime.I knew we were in a lot of trouble when he won the Florida primary.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (dX4hn


Getting the endorsement from the NYT is always a big red flag.

Posted by: buzzion - Free Kratos at October 08, 2012 07:47 PM (GULKT)

183 180

Yes.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:48 PM (boomF)

184 I gave you one. You were too stupid to understand it.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (boomF)


What, when you said if AtC wasn't being serious it was being blasphemous? If you think she wasn't being serious when she said you have no business calling me stupid.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:48 PM (/YJYi)

185 181

Yes.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:48 PM (boomF)

186 >>>I can not think of another election cycle that I was absolutely flaccid about.
_

I was in college during that campaign. I got to see Jack Kenp speak at a friend's school. He was okay, but he seemed a little constrained by Bob Dole. Bob Dole was not the most awesome candidate. Bob Dole is a great man and a war hero, but he couldn't make a case as to why in the world he should be president.

I voted for Harry Browne


Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 07:49 PM (N/1Dm)

187 174 *limping about and yelling*

Posted by: CAC at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (LjwEk)




I don't know what you did to Ace, but let us know so we can avoid it.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 07:49 PM (GEICT)

188 I predict that the VP debate will extend the impact of last week's debate. The country already knows Biden and they don't like him and they think he's a bumbling idiot. So even if his "performance" is gaffe-free, it won't move the needle for Barry. Just like Mitt had, Paul Ryan has the opportunity to introduce himself. He will sound competent and serious, and thus feed the perception set forth by Romney last week that this it's not only okay to "let Obama go," as Clint would say, but to eagerly embrace his replacement. The only way that the VP debate could be a bad outcome for R/R is if Paul Ryan screws up and I just don't see that happening.

Posted by: TD at October 08, 2012 07:49 PM (+uFux)

189 184

There was a fuller explanation. If you care, look it up.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:49 PM (boomF)

190 it's like West Side Story in here

just break into the dance-off already, ya homos

Posted by: soothsayer at October 08, 2012 07:49 PM (TXseM)

191 174 *limping about and yelling*


Posted by: CAC at October 08, 2012 07:46 PM (LjwEk)

-----------

Aww, CAC...that looks like it hurts.

*hands CAC an ice pack*

{{{CAC}}}

Posted by: wheatie at October 08, 2012 07:49 PM (l5RhJ)

192
McCain. I think he is the worst GOP candidate in my lifetime.


worse than Dole?

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 08, 2012 07:50 PM (0CiTm)

193
Republicans here in Michigan are tremendously motivated, and based only on personal observation, have very high motivation. Turnout will be high here for the Republicans.

Unfortunately, Pete Hoekstra is trailing the Debster badly, and unless Romney has some long and strong coattails, he will come in second. But we are not conceding this one to her, the contest continues until the winner is declared.

Posted by: MisterMoney at October 08, 2012 07:50 PM (wN82N)

194
BREAKING!!
BREAKING!!
BREAKING!!

OH SHIT OCTOBER SURPRISE!

OBAMA CAMPAIGN JUST RELEASED THIS!

http://tinyurl.com/8tjsag7

and This!

http://tinyurl.com/9ahfgd5

This is gonna motivated their base hard core.

We are in trouble folks.

THIS IS A BIG FUCKIN DEAL!

Posted by: Bahgdad Bob Biden at October 08, 2012 07:50 PM (ovpNn)

195 I suspect Ryan will also sound passionate. Biden will sound... you know

Posted by: mallfly at October 08, 2012 07:50 PM (bJm7W)

196 We have been waiting 50+ YEARS for this moment.

No matter what happens in the next 23 days, VOTE ROMNEY/RYAN ON NOVEMBER 6. Do not become complacent; this is our chance (responsibility) to put Socialism to rest, once and for all.

One more thing, and although I do not normally subscribe to this philosophy - VOTE A STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN TICKET. This will allow us to retain the House, gain the Senate, and install a REAL President.

Posted by: alwyr at October 08, 2012 07:51 PM (Oh5R1)

197 That's the only explanation you ever offered me when I asked you, you fucking idiot.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:51 PM (/YJYi)

198 I guess Cilizza has decided to adorn himself in the emperor's new clothes, too.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at October 08, 2012 07:51 PM (eHIJJ)

199
http://tinyurl.com/8qcgsnk
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM (lTVJy)

Geesh.. that made me tear up at the end too. 'We are that generation"..

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 08, 2012 07:51 PM (DGIjM)

200 Stacey Dash is like 46. That honestly makes her even hotter in my eyes. I love me a hot, older, woman.

Posted by: Rich at October 08, 2012 07:24 PM

I love 'em so much I went and married one! Hotter today than in her 20s or 30s too.

Hmm, think I may go Cougar hunting,

Posted by: DC in Towson at October 08, 2012 07:51 PM (CJwi5)

201 197

If you actually care, go back to that thread and actually read my comments.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:52 PM (boomF)

202 Some troll messed up his lemon party link, now we have to suffer. Where cat piss when you need her?

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:52 PM (mxnUd)

203
Posted by: Bahgdad Bob Biden at October 08, 2012 07:50 PM (ovpNn)



Toast. No question.

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 07:52 PM (jx2j9)

204 At some point in the debate Biden will agree with Paul Ryan that Mitt Romney will be a better president that TFG.

Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 07:52 PM (N/1Dm)

205 begging from Axelrot:

Friend --



We're about to get hit with an avalanche of negative ads.



Romney-allied outside groups have already lined up more than $23 million in television spending for this week alone.



That's been the other side's strategy from the beginning: slamming the airwaves with ads trashing the President and his record.



Listen, I'll be blunt: They are trying to buy this election, and we're
the only ones who are standing in their way. Don't wait any longer to
take ownership of this campaign.

Posted by: mallfly at October 08, 2012 07:52 PM (bJm7W)

206 202

Speaking of trolls, what have you contributed to this thread?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:53 PM (boomF)

207 The Biden-Ryan VP debate.

Moderator, "Mr. Biden what does a cow say?"

Biden, "Oink."

Moderator, "Mr. Ryan how do you compute the delta vee between the ISS and a Russian Soyuz?"

Ryan, "Well its a classic derivation of Newton to compute such..."

Moderator, "I am sorry Mr. Ryan we don't have time."

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 07:53 PM (c8YhH)

208 I just got home from work. Did you guys see the Ryan interview with some putz in Michigan? He cut him off at the knees, like a boss. It's on Mediaite.
Posted by: lowandslowThat was good! The reporter acted like he was on qualudes and clueless toboot. Loved the end where our dreamy math witch says "Well, that was strange. You try to stuff words in people's mouths?" Like a boss.

Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 07:53 PM (EAgmr)

209 from Gillibrand:

The Voter Empowerment Act would expand access to voting by modernizing
the voter registration process, allowing online and same-day
registration around the country. This bill would make sure that
provisional ballots are available and are counted at all polling
locations and would restore integrity to our voting process by setting
standards for voting machines, which require voters to receive
confirmation of their vote so they can be assured the vote they cast was
in fact counted. And it would also ensure that the votes of our youth
and those living or serving in the military overseas are counted.

Posted by: mallfly at October 08, 2012 07:54 PM (bJm7W)

210 Contribution => MUMR is the anal wart on the asshole of the galaxy. And, it eats kittens.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:54 PM (mxnUd)

211 Oh, look...it's Axe's #1 distraction troll, MUMR.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (vbh31)

212 Military Times poll shows Romney 66 to Obama's 26. Heh.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (/YJYi)

213 Listen, I'll be blunt: They are trying to buy this election

Heh. Did Axelburger already forget about all that dick-stroking from the D camp about how much they raised in September?

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (W9C25)

214 >>>You have to watch this. It needs to go viral. Young people speaking out on what is happening to the country we are leaving them, what we are doing to their future. It actually brought a tear to my eyes at the end.

http://tinyurl.com/8qcgsnk
Posted by: Lady in Black at October 08, 2012 07:35 PM

I'm glad you like it. I say the production values ar terrible, and they found 6 kids who'd read a script, fairly badly, for 4 minutes? Meh.

Ha ha at "what toilet to flush" though. That was funny.

The problem with the add, other than the music and production values and acting, is that it's pure hard-right conservatism that goes on and on and on in platitudes. No way that's appealing to anyone except those who are going to vote for the GOP ticket anyway.

But if it sends chills down your spine, cool.

Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (u8eBQ)

215 210

You win.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (boomF)

216 Actually that makes me want to giggle like Jon. hehe.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (/YJYi)

217
169 Not Ford. He almost pulled it out at the end. Honestly, I'm going with McCain. I think he is the worst GOP candidate in my lifetime.I knew we were in a lot of trouble when he won the Florida primary.
Posted by: Dave in Fla at October 08, 2012 07:45 PM (dX4hn)



Dole never really seemed to have a chance. I voted for him but was not surprised to see him defeated. At least McCain had Palin for excitement. Too bad he had a bunch of backstabbing little bitches running his campaign.
Ford might have pulled it out in another 2 weeks. I still remember my Dad saying "I am voting for Carter, a democrat will be good for this economy. We need a little inflation."

Posted by: rd does not trust the MSM at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (zLp5I)

218 I don't think MUMR is a troll and that being said,no need to attack him.Just let it lie.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (6o4Fb)

219 211

You win.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (boomF)

220 Listen, I'll be blunt: They are trying to buy this election, and we're the only ones who are standing in their way.

This from the guy who raised $181M last month from mostly foreign sources. Ummmmm hmmmm, yeah, David Axelrod, the voice of moral authority. Yeah, that's it.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (KgRgY)

221 All my Democrats are coming back home. TO ROOST???

Posted by: Evilpens at October 08, 2012 07:56 PM (ck76k)

222 He can we get a word counter for Monday Night Football? I'm betting that Tebow is mentioned more than Sanchez and Schaub combined, and he's going to be on the sidelines 90% of the game.

Posted by: buzzion - Free Kratos at October 08, 2012 07:56 PM (GULKT)

223 o/t after 200+ posts: from this morning when I couldn't make the comments work.
http://preview.tinyurl.com/97pvxjq (h/t to The Blaze) Watch their eyes... the sanest among them is the drunk black guy.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/9ecm4ox (h/t to Breitbart.com) Figures. Remember that the issue is never the issue: Forward the Revolution!

Posted by: Thorvald at October 08, 2012 07:56 PM (1V6Pv)

224 I don't think MUMR is a troll

How did you ever arrive at that conclusion?

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at October 08, 2012 07:57 PM (vbh31)

225 Welcome to my domain, Mr. Obama. Bwahahahahahah!

Posted by: The Margin Of Error - in a snazzy get-up on a big throne, or something. Hard to tell from here. at October 08, 2012 07:57 PM (R18D0)

226 224

Reading comprehension. How does it work?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:57 PM (boomF)

227 11 Cilizza sounds like a skin disease, like eczema.
Posted by: logprof at October 08.


Now, now, you don't need to go there.

Posted by: Don Imus at October 08, 2012 07:58 PM (wUFaM)

228
steevy is wise in all things. 'cept pick'em. i just made that up.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 07:58 PM (mxnUd)

229 Can we just have a MUMR thread where everyone who gives a shit about any of this can just duke it out, Anchorman style?

Posted by: Dave S. at October 08, 2012 07:58 PM (UvR6d)

230 228

Another excellent contribution. Well done.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:58 PM (boomF)

231 >>Consider it like the AGW models, that can't even predict the past worth a shit, let alone the future. GIGO.

No doubt, there has been an issue with the number of people who are willing to speak with a pollster. But 9% of an electorate of over 160 million and a LV of over 130 million is still statistically significant. Rasmussen had the '08 race down to decimal points, they couldn't do that by throwing darts at a dart board.

I'm not saying that every poll should be taken on face value. It helps to know the history of the pollster (We Ask America, for example, does not have a good track record) and their bias (PPP). But most important is to look at the internals and the party ID and apply that to historical trends and current registration and voter intensity models.

Even Gallup, which polls RVs for a stupidly long period, can help you understand national trends.

Polls are a snapshot of where the race stands at any given point in time and not a prediction of where the race will end. They can give a good picture of the state of the race. Still, applying likely party ID is the only way to make any sense out of them.

If polls weren't important, campaigns wouldn't pay enormous amounts of money for their own private polls, which do in fact rely heavily on their own predictive turnout models.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 07:58 PM (TMB3S)

232 When is the Stacey Dash thread going up? She is one brave chick. The preference cascade has begun in earnest.

Posted by: not the mama at October 08, 2012 07:58 PM (kzCIn)

233 226


Did you need to study to pass the Turing test?

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 07:59 PM (z9HTb)

234 Dave S. Dueling Thesauri at 10 paces?

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 07:59 PM (c8YhH)

235 155 I'm just glad we have such a deep bench now. I'm tired of the whole, "it's his turn" mentality.
Posted by: mastour at October 08, 2012 07:43 PM (Xf0bG)


I am cautiously optimistic that, in ten years, we will be thanking Barqui O'telewoobie for that. For no other reason, it's why the "Tea Party" had to happen.

Posted by: Rural 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 08, 2012 07:59 PM (tFWsM)

236 229

Works for me.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:59 PM (boomF)

237

Classic headline:
http://tinyurl.com/8n3sywm

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 07:59 PM (jx2j9)

238 229 Can we just have a MUMR thread where everyone who gives a shit about any of this can just duke it out, Anchorman style?



I call trident!

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 07:59 PM (GEICT)

239 233

No.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 07:59 PM (boomF)

240 when you're a jet you're a jet all the way from your first cigarette to your last dyin ' day



which is tonight against Houston

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 08, 2012 08:00 PM (8sCoq)

241 I just got home from work. Did you guys see the Ryan
interview with some putz in Michigan? He cut him off at the knees, like
a boss. It's on Mediaite.
Posted by: lowandslowThat was good! The
reporter acted like he was on qualudes and clueless toboot. Loved the
end where our dreamy math witch says "Well, that was strange. You try to
stuff words in people's mouths?" Like a boss.

Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 07:53 PM (EAgmr)

__
That deserves a post here. That was good.

Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 08:00 PM (N/1Dm)

242 Y'all listen to that Lady in Black (up at 117) and watch this video she posted a link to. You won't be sorry.

http://tinyurl.com/8qcgsnk

Back to working and lurking for me.

Posted by: Cate Simpleton in IN at October 08, 2012 08:00 PM (1JJGO)

243 Ball of Meat, again, my balls, your mouth; fucktard.

Posted by: mastour at October 08, 2012 08:00 PM (Xf0bG)

244
Read this:
http://tinyurl.com/8v5g95b

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 08:01 PM (jx2j9)

245 239


So I guess you're not AI.

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 08:01 PM (z9HTb)

246 Shep Smith is unbearable.

Posted by: Truman North at October 08, 2012 08:02 PM (eh2Ql)

247 Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 07:55 PM (u8eBQ)

Yeah, I liked it. My kid is in that age group. Production values, teen acting abilities and conservative platform aside, there was a message....and that message is we're fucking up the country we're leaving them and fucking up their future. That alone gets filed under the pretty powerful category.

Posted by: Lady in Black at October 08, 2012 08:02 PM (lTVJy)

248 245

50%.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:02 PM (boomF)

249 I called Michigan for Romney a few weeks ago.



Just sayin....

Posted by: NC Ref at October 08, 2012 08:02 PM (/izg2)

250 Is it too much to hope for a Giada cheerleader on the MNF thread?

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 08, 2012 08:03 PM (W9C25)

251 Did you know that "Obama" is the only US president's name you can say with a dick in your mouth? Try it! *puts dick in mouth*"O B A M A."*takes dick out of mouth* See?


Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:03 PM (R18D0)

252 117 O/T:You have to watch this. It needs to go viral. Young people speaking out on what is happening to the country we are leaving them, what we are doing to their future. It actually brought a tear to my eyes at the end.
http://tinyurl.com/8qcgsnk

----------

Well, I loved it.
Thanks, Lady in Black.

I got a lump in my throat, towards the end.

Posted by: wheatie at October 08, 2012 08:03 PM (l5RhJ)

253 Thank you Lady in Black - I talk to my teens about this all of the time. I am trying to unscrew whatever has been screwed into their brains during the school day.

Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 08:03 PM (EAgmr)

254 246 Shep Smith is unbearable.
Posted by: Truman North at October 08, 2012 08:02 PM (eh2Ql)


Understatement of the last thirty days.

At least....

Posted by: Rural 98ZJUSMC in Johnson County laughing at Cook County at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (tFWsM)

255 which is tonight against Houston

I am SO looking forward to that beatdown.

With any luck, this time next year Rex Ryan will be managing a Hardee's franchise outside of Emporia, Kansas

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (KgRgY)

256 KEENE,
California—On a California campaign swing, President Barack Obama on
Monday honored the late Latino labor activist Cesar Chavez by formally
designating the United Farm Workers leader's former home and
headquarters as a national monument.
"Today, La Paz joins a long line
of national monuments—stretching from the Statue of Liberty to the Grand
Canyon—monuments that tell the story of who we are as Americans," Obama
said."It's a story of natural wonders and modern marvels; of fierce
battles and quiet progress."





Up next, a monument to Hugo Chavez

Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (5xJ3/)

257 251

Clever.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (boomF)

258 My name is Paul Ryan and I have a question for you: Is a man not entitled to the sweat of his omn brow?

Posted by: Paul Ryan at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (xXhWA)

259 Well I'm glad you liked it, Lady in Black. It was good in its way; I'm just all about teh swing voters, hapless clods, at this moment in the cycle.

Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (u8eBQ)

260 Fluffy,

Might be a later iteration of this - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ELIZA

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (c8YhH)

261 Just saw the Paul Ryan interview.... I'll be in my bunk.. what a STUD!

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (DGIjM)

262 @233 Only if one can't use impersonal pronouns; but then the test is moot.

Posted by: Thorvald at October 08, 2012 08:05 PM (1V6Pv)

263 I hope you're a girl, otherwise gay, Jumbo Shrimp. Either way's fine. Otherwise ....

Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 08:06 PM (u8eBQ)

264 $5 says Biden tries to talk down to Ryan, like the wise old man who is going to school the young punk


Posted by: Jones in CO at October 08, 2012 08:07 PM (8sCoq)

265
Obama sicks IRS on another enemy:


OUTSPOKEN OBAMA CLASSMATE: THE PRESIDENT USED THE IRS TO PUNISH ME THROUGH 18-MONTH ‘WITCH HUNT’
http://tinyurl.com/8dbk4dg

Posted by: SCoaMThug at October 08, 2012 08:07 PM (LpQbZ)

266 John Gruden is unbearable.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 08:07 PM (6o4Fb)

267 I think Ryan should refrain from doing interviews now. It could be construed as unfair psychological warfare against Biden.

Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 08:07 PM (u8eBQ)

268 Why is ESPN always talking about the Tebow package? Doesn't this seem to be a little bit on the ghey side?

Leave Tebow's package alone!

Posted by: Fritz at October 08, 2012 08:08 PM (vm7ot)

269
266 John Gruden is unbearable.
Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 08:07 PM (6o4Fb)


Like I said I hope there's a word counter on MNF tonight. I bet Tebow beats out Sanchez and Schaub combined.

Posted by: buzzion - Free Kratos at October 08, 2012 08:08 PM (GULKT)

270 255 Nope,shoe salesman.He'll be very happy though IYKWIMAITYD.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 08:08 PM (6o4Fb)

271 Anyone have the link to the Paul Ryan interview?

Posted by: TD at October 08, 2012 08:08 PM (+uFux)

272 Naaah. All of Biden's moments of idiocy come when he's trying to be one of the guys. That's not the case here. He's going to stay on message. I still think Ryan will beat him like a rented mule, but it's not going to be the thr

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:08 PM (KgRgY)

273 JackStraw:

The 9% response rate is a major problem.

It means you're fundamentally sampling a self-selecting sub-group that has a completely undetermined relationship to the full group.

The 'Margin of Error' does not address this. MoE is the measure of internal self-consistency. That is: "If I retake this exact set of poll questions using my identical approach of finding respondents, I expect to get the same answer (within the MoE) 96% of the time."

It can be correct. But it can also be wildly skewed.

What if: The only change after the debate was that the response rate -today- was 15%? Because people don't change party affiliation like that.

If that is true, the math will be very, very ugly.

Posted by: Al at October 08, 2012 08:09 PM (5a/pJ)

274 269 I watch MNF on mute.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 08:09 PM (6o4Fb)

275 Dammit. This is when iPad sucks. I was going to say Biden won't lose as bad as TFG did.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:09 PM (KgRgY)

276 Test

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:09 PM (boomF)

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:09 PM (KgRgY)

278 Test

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:09 PM (boomF)

279 Dear Female Parenting Drone,

The weight of bulldozer treads are unbearable. But as the air is crushed from my lungs I am happy to know my death in this struggle will be used a crude prop in a self-serving manner by you and the ISM.

Love,
St. Pancakes, aka Rachel Corrie

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:10 PM (c8YhH)

280 Close your tags.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:10 PM (KgRgY)

281 My bad. Used to italics.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:10 PM (boomF)

282 263 I hope you're a girl, otherwise gay, Jumbo Shrimp. Either way's fine. Otherwise ....
Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 08:06 PM (u8eBQ)


red blooded American girl with a massive crush on Ryan

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 08, 2012 08:10 PM (DGIjM)

283 Sigh.

Posted by: Al at October 08, 2012 08:10 PM (5a/pJ)

284 $5 says Biden tries to talk down to Ryan, like the wise old man who is going to school the young punk
Posted by: Jones in CO


This isn't going to be a Romney/Ryan repeat. Biden can look confident and lie through his teeth like a pro, which he is. He's also an ass hole so he'll probably get in a few zingers. He'll probably also do a lot of the personal stories from people he's met on the campaign trail. All of them made up.

Posted by: Dang© at October 08, 2012 08:11 PM (R18D0)

285 279

That brings back memories.


But why?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:11 PM (boomF)

286 Climbs in the barrel.

Posted by: Al at October 08, 2012 08:11 PM (5a/pJ)

287 I believe the standard is 1 internetz and the barrel Al.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 08:11 PM (GEICT)

288 I especially enjoy muting the panel of brain surgeons.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 08:12 PM (6o4Fb)

289 red blooded American girl with a massive crush on Ryan

Cool, because on the Internet, we all look like Paul Ryan.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:12 PM (KgRgY)

290 207
The Biden-Ryan VP debate.

Moderator, "Mr. Biden what does a cow say?"

Biden, "Oink."

=======

nuh-uh... it would be

Moderator, "Mr. Biden what does a cow say?"

Biden: "meow."

MSNBC commentaters (with emphasis on taters): When thrown an unanticipated question, the vice president, thanks to his long experience in public service, was still three quarter's on the mark..."

Posted by: mallfly at October 08, 2012 08:12 PM (bJm7W)

291 >>> Obama sicks IRS on another enemy:

OUTSPOKEN OBAMA CLASSMATE: THE PRESIDENT USED THE IRS TO PUNISH ME THROUGH 18-MONTH ‘WITCH HUNT’
http://tinyurl.com/8dbk4dg
Posted by: SCoaMThug at October 08, 2012 08:07 PM (LpQbZ)

Maybe.

But I see WND is associated with it. That gives me huge pause. Joseph Farah is a nutter, or at least has carved out the nutter market.

Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 08:12 PM (u8eBQ)

292 Let's-Go
Yank-ees!

Let's-Go
Yank-ees!

Posted by: garrett at October 08, 2012 08:13 PM (Ij06X)

293 289 Yep,wash board abs here.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 08:13 PM (6o4Fb)

294 Cool, because on the Internet, we all look like Paul Ryan.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:12 PM (KgRgY)

You are hotter than Paul Ryan... I just know it.

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 08, 2012 08:13 PM (DGIjM)

295

But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!!!!









Just think, in about a month, I'll likely be retiring this meme. To the great relief of morons worldwide.

Go gently into the night, In before the troll........

Posted by: In before the troll at October 08, 2012 08:14 PM (TIIx5)

296 You know what's really going to be funny?

Is seeing just how much and how blatantly the moderators try to shield Biden during the debate.

Posted by: Random at October 08, 2012 08:14 PM (u8eBQ)

297
I hope you're a girl, otherwise gay, Jumbo Shrimp. Either way's fine. Otherwise ....

Posted by: Random


Frankly, nazi-spaz, no one gives a shit what you think. Jog on.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at October 08, 2012 08:14 PM (e7w2X)

298 Over under on date Tebow gets first start for the Jets. It may be over under on Eastern time tonight!

Posted by: USS Diversity at October 08, 2012 08:14 PM (0CiTm)

299 Rex Ryan called to tell me he loves the cheerleader pics we post at the HQ but he wants to see feet.

Posted by: steevy at October 08, 2012 08:14 PM (6o4Fb)

300 294

Is that even possible?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:14 PM (boomF)

301 Just saw the Paul Ryan interview.... I'll be in my bunk.. what a STUD!Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp Hey, I called the bunk first! Seriously, I love how there is not a pussy-whipped bone in this man''s body. I agree with Jones in CO - Biden will be a dick to Ryan and will pay dearly for it. You don't fuck with the Math Witch!

Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 08:15 PM (EAgmr)

302 Cool, because on the Internet, we all look like Paul Ryan.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:12 PM (KgRgY)



Yup, only better looking. And really Irish.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 08:15 PM (GEICT)

303
301 Just saw the Paul Ryan interview.... I'll be in my bunk.. what a STUD!Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp Hey, I called the bunk first! Seriously, I love how there is not a pussy-whipped bone in this man''s body. I agree with Jones in CO - Biden will be a dick to Ryan and will pay dearly for it. You don't fuck with the Math Witch!
Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 08:15 PM (EAgmr)


If you let me set up the video camera then you can both have the bunk.

Posted by: buzzion - Free Kratos at October 08, 2012 08:16 PM (GULKT)

304 You are hotter than Paul Ryan... I just know it.

And you are my Kate Upton, I just know it.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:16 PM (KgRgY)

305 Check out my six pack abs! *points to doughy midsection - brp*

Posted by: Dang© at October 08, 2012 08:17 PM (R18D0)

306 I'm still trying to come up with a drinking game for the VP debate. All I know now is if Joe says, "Big Fucking Deal," I'll be in a coma.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 08:17 PM (mxnUd)

307 273 ....The 9% response rate is a major problem.

I agree.
The group of people that still have land lines is a shrinking group.
And of that...a small percentage are answering their phones, cooperating with the pollsters.

How can that be very accurate at reflecting what the larger electorate is really thinking?

Posted by: wheatie at October 08, 2012 08:17 PM (l5RhJ)

308 What are all the worrywarts going to worry about after Romney wins in a landslide? I hope they worry about keeping the pressure on the GOP. It would be nice if they actually decided to get in front of the end of the Welfare State instead of going back to their default position of sucking ass.

If they don't accept that this form of government is unraveling across the world and decide as a party to prepare a coherent alternative then we're going to have a hard time staying together. These Euro states can get kicked out and others can leave without it being that big of a deal. I mean, it will be a big deal but it wouldn't be like the CA state government buckling and looking to a broke DC to save it.

A good start to that process would be to stop worrying so much about the MSM. They're done too.


Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 08:18 PM (N/1Dm)

309 #163 It is my opinion that the people who do not answer polls are pro-Romney. They are avoiding answering because they do not want IRS audits, harassers at their door, EPA investigations of their businesses, etc.

Democrats would be happy to answer, because no one would threaten them with the full force of the federal government as it is now constituted.

So I am arbitrarily adding +5 Romney to every poll. It makes as much sense as anything else I read.

Posted by: Miss Marple at October 08, 2012 08:18 PM (GoIUi)

310 306 I'm still trying to come up with a drinking game for the VP debate. All I know now is if Joe says, "Big Fucking Deal," I'll be in a coma.
Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 08:17 PM (mxnUd)



"Literally"

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 08:18 PM (GEICT)

311
All the late breaking news points to Obama's first term in office being as bad as Obama at a debate.
Plus - he makes Carter look like Pericles

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 08:18 PM (jx2j9)

312 304 You are hotter than Paul Ryan... I just know it.

And you are my Kate Upton, I just know it.
Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:16 PM (KgRgY)


haha...

Posted by: Jumbo Shrimp at October 08, 2012 08:19 PM (DGIjM)

313 >>The 9% response rate is a major problem.

>>It means you're fundamentally sampling a self-selecting sub-group that has a completely undetermined relationship to the full group.

How? Anytime you have a voluntary response you have a self-selected group by definition. So why is 9% of a registered vote group of over 165 million any less statistically relevant than 15%? And how did Rasmussen get within a percentage point of calling this race on the button in '08 with the same response rate?

>>What if: The only change after the debate was that the response rate -today- was 15%? Because people don't change party affiliation like that.

Actually, the change like that all the time. Here is the Rasmussen Party ID model month by month for the last 8 years.

http://tinyurl.com/9ovdqxe

Stuff happens in the larger electorate all the time and month to month.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 08:19 PM (TMB3S)

314 306 I'm still trying to come up with a drinking
game for the VP debate. All I know now is if Joe says, "Big Fucking
Deal," I'll be in a coma.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 08:17 PM (mxnUd)





"Literally"

Posted by: BCochran1981


Better buy some cheap booze for that one.

Posted by: Dang© at October 08, 2012 08:19 PM (R18D0)

315 Im going to take Friday off cuz I know I'm going to be hurting. Drink everytime Biden mentions "Scranton" "Choo-Choos" and all of his made up "facts" and bullshit? I'll have to go to AA afterwards.

Posted by: Cheri at October 08, 2012 08:19 PM (EAgmr)

316 309

It's almost as if the cultural, social, and political situation is thoroughly fucked up.


(The economy too.)

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:20 PM (boomF)

317 Plus - he makes Carter look like Pericles

I would happily reprise the funeral oration of Pericles, as long as the funeral was for Obama.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:20 PM (KgRgY)

318 Plus - he makes Carter look like Pericles

Posted by: HtP

Fuck you and that buck-toothed hick.

Posted by: Zombie Pericles at October 08, 2012 08:20 PM (R18D0)

319 @wheatie How can that be very accurate at reflecting what the larger electorate is really thinking?

If it were a -random- slice, I might not be so worried.

But I know I've answered polls before. And that this year I'm beyond incandescent on the entire issue.

It would be interesting to see how much we could shift the results with a simple slamming "Hey Morons, answer the damn phone for the week."

I still don't know if I'd manage it without ripping some hapless phone-person a new one.

Posted by: Al at October 08, 2012 08:22 PM (5a/pJ)

320
I answered a three-question pole today Donnelly vs Murdoch (Indiana senate race). I could taste the gloom flowing from the Dem pollster! Yuckky gloom, sweet sweet lib tears!
The three questions: Do you think the economy is getting better or worse, are you more likely to vote for Joe or Richard, the year of your birth.

Posted by: Cicero Kid at October 08, 2012 08:25 PM (2yJbu)

321 I sense I should buy shares in a liver donor company before the Biden-Ryan debate. I sense a major drunk coming on. A Teddy Kennedy embalming grade drunk by many Morons.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:25 PM (c8YhH)

322 314 "Literally"

Posted by: BCochran1981


Better buy some cheap booze for that one.
Posted by: Dang© at October 08, 2012 08:19 PM (R18D0)



Naw, for this election season I'm going good stuff. If RR pull it off on election night, I'm breaking out the JW Blue.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 08:25 PM (GEICT)

323 Link to President Putt Putt in the sidebar not working.

Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 08, 2012 08:26 PM (C2//T)

324 #323, is that a surprise? When has the President ever worked?

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:27 PM (c8YhH)

325 Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 08:19 PM (TMB3S)

It is easily conceivable that the only people STILL responding to polls have even less relationship with the general electorate than before.

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 46% more DOOM! at October 08, 2012 08:27 PM (MrM2k)

326 What debate?

Posted by: Barack Obama at October 08, 2012 08:27 PM (BVkEs)

327 I hope the whole gawd damn thing--the polling --goes up in flames.

Burn, baby burn.

Liberals will cling desperately to it--witness the witless Ben Smith.

Why?

Because they love the effect of "peer pressure" that polling 'predictions" have on the weak minded--the Liberal base.

Posted by: tasker at October 08, 2012 08:27 PM (r2PLg)

328 Biden: The stimulus sherriff, remember that one ?

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 08, 2012 08:27 PM (nTgAI)

329 >>I answered a three-question pole today Donnelly vs Murdoch (Indiana senate race). I could taste the gloom flowing from the Dem pollster

This is what I'm talking about. The idea that conservatives never answer polls or "I don't know anyone who answers a poll" is a myth.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 08:27 PM (TMB3S)

330 321I sense I should buy shares in a liver donor company before the Biden-Ryan debate. I sense a major drunk coming on. A Teddy Kennedy embalming grade drunk by many Morons.
Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:25 PM (c8YhH)Fram Filters?

Posted by: Cicero Kid at October 08, 2012 08:28 PM (2yJbu)

331 All I know is, in addition to the 2 old dudes that always represent, I pass 20 houses sporting Mitt signs just going 2 block to get out of the neighborhood. Anecdotal? Yes. R+ more than zero? You bet your sweet ass.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 08:28 PM (mxnUd)

332 RR winning will just be the first step. We are going to have to keep Mittens feet to the fire when it comes to governing as a conservative. His pick of Ryan makes me hopeful. There is A LOT to do and the decisions these guys are going to have to make will be painful.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at October 08, 2012 08:28 PM (jucos)

333 My second prediction for the VP debate is that Biden will at some point say, "Happy days are here again."

He may do it ironically but he will say those works.

Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 08:28 PM (N/1Dm)

334 So polling is now a Jedi mind-trick that is effective on the weak of mind.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:28 PM (c8YhH)

335 324

He doesn't work often, but when he does...

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:29 PM (boomF)

336
It's already been 1 1/2 hours since these numbers broke. So that means you should consult me in about another 2 1/2 since it will have lasted more than four hours then.

(as if you have to ask what...)

Posted by: Your Doctor at October 08, 2012 08:29 PM (OixJo)

337 332 baby steps

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 08:29 PM (mxnUd)

338 A Teddy Kennedy embalming grade drunk by many Morons.

I was going to say that you should not compare a Moron drunk to a Kennedy drunk. We are of a higher order.

But then I remembered the several hundred unexplained cases of hobo carcasses being found in the blue states during primary season.....and I decided discretion was called for.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:29 PM (KgRgY)

339 I agree with Miss Marple @ 309.

I think there are a lot of people who are afraid to say that they are voting against Barky.
Not just Republicans...but Indies, too.
And probably some Dems as well.

We've never had a Thug in the White House like we do now.
People are affraid that he might manage to stay in office...so they are keeping their mouths shut.

Posted by: wheatie at October 08, 2012 08:29 PM (l5RhJ)

340 Polling is a noisy, unstable way of measuring how people are feeling about a topic, which then feeds into the next poll as input...

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 46% more DOOM! at October 08, 2012 08:29 PM (MrM2k)

341 I was just thinking that Obama's whole life, the skids have been greased for him. Always told he was awesome, always believed his own BS.

How will he react if/when over 50,000,000 Americans fire his ass? He'll have to carry that mark around the rest of his life: FAIL.

$20 says Michelle divorces his ass.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 08, 2012 08:30 PM (8sCoq)

342 Are the 4-0 Texans playing tonight? I've been watching ESPN for 30 minutes and I've only heard about the Jets.

The New York Sports Media - Fucking up sports for 130 years.

Posted by: Greg at October 08, 2012 08:30 PM (GNaYV)

343 Polling "demographics"--pitting one group against the other in a pluralistic society that is barely holding it together--they ought to be shot. (metaphorically of course.)

telling one group--how their group is thinking--how they ought to think...the height of ass hattery.

Stacey Dash--brave as hell.

Posted by: tasker at October 08, 2012 08:30 PM (r2PLg)

344 Electing RR is not a step forward. It's us planting our feet after 4 years of running backwards towards a cliff.

Moving forward is going to take Tea Party fervor and resolution.

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 46% more DOOM! at October 08, 2012 08:31 PM (MrM2k)

345 The Jets better not play Tebow. I'm out of Nilla wafers.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at October 08, 2012 08:31 PM (Gk3SS)

346 But the jobs numbers just killed, KILLED Romney!!! At least that is what I was told...

Posted by: NWConservative at October 08, 2012 08:31 PM (CTUuA)

347 5ive3irty8ight ‏@AceofSpadesHQ
Assuming Mitt Romney can neutralize the threat from the Ayatollah of Rocknrollah, his odds improve to 0.0041% .

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Posted by: Evilpens at October 08, 2012 08:32 PM (ck76k)

348 I don't know if its been mentioned but is Lara Logan a moronette? I saw on the blaze where she basically called TFG a liar.

Posted by: Adam at October 08, 2012 08:32 PM (/YJYi)

349 The Jets are gonna get their asses handed to them. It will be ugly.

Posted by: Jones in CO at October 08, 2012 08:32 PM (8sCoq)

350 Fuck you and that buck-toothed hick.
Posted by: Zombie Pericles at October 08, 2012 08:20 PM (R18D0)Sorry Peri, I didn't see you there in the shadows.

Posted by: HtP at October 08, 2012 08:32 PM (jx2j9)

351
Check out my six pack abs! *points to doughy midsection - brp*
Posted by: Dang© at October 08, 2012 08:17 PM (R18D0)


Six Pack, HA! I've got you beat, mine are like a 16 gallon keg.

Posted by: rd does not trust the MSM at October 08, 2012 08:32 PM (zLp5I)

352 It's not just partisan divide that is used to manipulate polls but the way the question is asked, number of males vs females and urban vs rural respondents. The more calls to females and urban residents, the more the results skew Democrat/Obama.

Posted by: Devan at October 08, 2012 08:32 PM (WcZyl)

353 Hey! MIMR has my hash!

Posted by: Boomer Redneque knows Mohammad was a goat-fucking kiddie-raper at October 08, 2012 08:32 PM (eQnzo)

354 A college friend of my wife is a low info voter. She fell for the narrative in 08 and voted for TFG. Now she's a terrified low info voter who is praying to her god that TFG loses.


Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 08:33 PM (N/1Dm)

355 333
My second prediction for the VP debate is that Biden will at some point say, "Happy days are here again."

He may do it ironically but he will say those works.


Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 08:28 PM (N/1Dm)


I think Ryan should bring a recording of a train whistle and just periodically hit the play button while Biden is talking.

Posted by: Tami at October 08, 2012 08:33 PM (X6akg)

356 353

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:33 PM (boomF)

357 20 says Michelle divorces his ass.

Man, that will be the sweetest part of kicking TFG to the curb. I won't have to listen an anti-obesity diatribe in Klingon.

Like she should talk either. She's got the kind of ass you beat with a car antenna.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:33 PM (KgRgY)

358 Off gerg sock!

Posted by: Countrysquire at October 08, 2012 08:33 PM (GNaYV)

359 I think Ryan should bring a recording of a train whistle and just periodically hit the play button while Biden is talking.
Posted by: Tami at October 08, 2012 08:33 PM (X6akg)

Love this idea

Posted by: The Jackhole at October 08, 2012 08:33 PM (nTgAI)

360 Fram Filters, Hobo corpses... all we need is duct-tape and Valu-Rite.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:35 PM (c8YhH)

361 Let's not start ducking each other's sicks.

Posted by: Leo Ladenson at October 08, 2012 08:35 PM (aVH2N)

362 345 The Jets better not play Tebow. I'm out of Nilla wafers.

What would you be dipping???

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:35 PM (KgRgY)

363 Cheerleader pic up.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 08:35 PM (GEICT)

364 Party ID bias? This isn't rocket science, morons.

Maybe some folks just don't wanna answer the fucking phone.

Rs won't talk when Obama's steamrolling with an assist from the MSM.

Ds won't talk when The Chosen One face plants in front of 70 million viewers.

IMAGINE THAT.

Posted by: Walter Freeman at October 08, 2012 08:35 PM (kqGWM)

365 D.M. Hawkins @HawkinsUSA 2h
Hilarity ensues: WaPo complains of partisan ID samples in polls showing Romney bounce: ow.ly/1OQdIh

Posted by: Evilpens at October 08, 2012 08:35 PM (ck76k)

366 Plus - he makes Carter look like Pericles



Posted by: HtP

Fuck you and that buck-toothed hick.


Posted by: Zombie Pericles at October 08, 2012 08:20 PM (R18D0


Yeah, that is completely unfair.

Given the way he spends money and blows through the treasury, Obama *is* Pericles.

Posted by: AD at October 08, 2012 08:35 PM (dfVq9)

367 Public policy polling has always been an art form--it is not science.

What's the turn out going to be--what's the modeling for that?

No one knows--hence the bullshit starts right. the .hell. there.

As soon as you try to predict human behavior it is not science.

The media will cling to it because they like to borrow authority from the "numbers" and because at the same time the media has very little credibility left.

Posted by: tasker at October 08, 2012 08:36 PM (r2PLg)

368 No way the Mooch dumps the JEF. She will have her own wing on the Hawaiian resort and she won't even have to run into the JEF. The perks are just too good for both of these grifters.

Posted by: Truck Monkey at October 08, 2012 08:36 PM (jucos)

369
306 I'm still trying to come up with a drinking
game for the VP debate. All I know now is if Joe says, "Big Fucking
Deal," I'll be in a coma.

Posted by: Ball of Meat at October 08, 2012 08:17 PM (mxnUd)





"Literally"

Posted by: BCochran1981 at October 08, 2012 08:18 PM (GEICT)






If Ryan does an Inigo Montoya response to that word, I'll spontaneously spooge.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at October 08, 2012 08:36 PM (TIIx5)

370 Dear Pericles,
We want our money back.

Sincerely the Delos League.

Posted by: Anna Puma (+SmuD) at October 08, 2012 08:37 PM (c8YhH)

371 Delian League.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at October 08, 2012 08:39 PM (boomF)

372 Oh, come on! It is about the weed now! The candidate that deeeecides to support legalization wins! ... or maybe even the candidate that chooses not to oppose people getting high. Mitt, just leave this alone, let the public speak and call it something like "states rights". ... either that or show us the drug test results from every campaign worker on your team. Hot spud alert!!

Posted by: and irresolute at October 08, 2012 08:39 PM (JvklE)

373 Just watched some Dem on O'Reillytry to spin the polls - her tears werejust below the surface. Oh yes.

Posted by: Joanne at October 08, 2012 08:40 PM (VNFBf)

374 ...RexRyan...outside of Emporia Kansas.
A while back someone referenced Emporia. Was that you then too Sean? Do you have some connection? Most people have never heard of it.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 08, 2012 08:40 PM (M7Cfv)

375 1) The older polls are up closer to 50% Jack. I'm not claiming a 50% self-selected group is good. It is most likely better than 9% though.

2)
They don't do the in depth studies with every poll (because no one sits
still to do them). This means that, yes, the number taken to
mean
the party identification shifts all over the lot. And the MoE
is reported as small because it is based (almost) strictly on
sample-size.

...
But they've also done questionnaires on "Have
you switched party?" and "How often do you switch parties?" and "Did
you switch parties this time?"

It's been decided that those
questions don't work, because they get back "Hell no" as the answer to a
very high percentage. Higher even than the visible shift from
things like the "Party ID" questions.

That is:
They're answering the question "What percentage of the people willing to talk to pollsters are Democrats this week?"

And willingness to talk to pollsters shifts faster than party identification. It's a "little change". This is ignoring Independents - just saying that people don't waver on party ID back-and-forth like a freaking tennis match.

Posted by: Al at October 08, 2012 08:40 PM (5a/pJ)

376 A while back someone referenced Emporia. Was that you then too Sean? Do you have some connection? Most people have never heard of it.

Wasn't me, but I spent mucho years at Ft. Riley.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 08, 2012 08:41 PM (KgRgY)

377 373 ... yep. But she would have looked good on the Football thread! A Pelosi she was not.

Posted by: and irresolute at October 08, 2012 08:42 PM (JvklE)

378 347 5ive3irty8ight ‏@AceofSpadesHQ
Assuming Mitt Romney can neutralize the threat from the Ayatollah of Rocknrollah, his odds improve to 0.0041% .

hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha


-----

Oh yeah, checking this out now. Thanks for posting. If you still have Obama a slight favorite in Florida and a solid favorite in Virginia, then it might be time for Silver to tweak his model.

Posted by: Dave S. at October 08, 2012 08:43 PM (UvR6d)

379 Naw, for this election season I'm going good stuff. If RR pull it off on election night, I'm breaking out the JW Blue.

Posted by: BCochran1981


I'll get a bottle of Laphroaig, 15 year.

Posted by: Dang© at October 08, 2012 08:44 PM (R18D0)

380 ...at Ft. Riley. Ah yes. Forgot about that. Will try to imprint that indelibly on my brain. Sean Bannion, Big Red 1. There, maybe that'll help.

Posted by: teej says go K-State at October 08, 2012 08:44 PM (M7Cfv)

381 O/T ... since this thread must die soon anyhow .... has everyone seen the guys paragliding with the hawks eating out of their hands as they soar? http://tinyurl.com/98co2g2

Posted by: and irresolute at October 08, 2012 08:46 PM (JvklE)

382 Obama's Having a Fire Sale

heh

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7uVb-jnCqd4&feature=youtu.be

Posted by: before the action at October 08, 2012 08:48 PM (LpQbZ)

383 Al at October 08, 2012 08:40 PM (5a/pJ)

Be back later. It's time for my weekly humility treatment, aka the Jets.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 08, 2012 08:49 PM (TMB3S)

384 Obama's itinerary is strange. He's spending a couple days in CA doing several campaign events. He's spending an awful lot of time in CA. On Wednesday, he's in Colombus, OH and then on Thursday, he's in Miami, FL.

Not only that, but it's getting really hard to find out where he's going. That's usually a bad sign... for Obama.

Romney had two events in VA, one of them a rally. Tomorrow, he's in Iowa and Ohio. Paul Ryan and other GOP members were in MICHIGAN today.

Looks like Mitt has a lot of surrogates campaigning for him as well. And they have bus tours every day to get people to vote early.

On the 10th, he's in OH. On the 11th, he's in NC.

This looks like the itinerary of someone competing to maintain a lead. He's got people holing rallies in all swing states almost every day including WI and MI.

Posted by: MrX at October 08, 2012 08:49 PM (PxmNZ)

385 CA...still fund raising if I had to put money on it.

Posted by: tasker at October 08, 2012 08:50 PM (r2PLg)

386 MrX btw thanks for the comment--love that kind of stuff.

Posted by: tasker at October 08, 2012 08:52 PM (r2PLg)

387 When you're winning the fundraising comes to you.

Because you're busy winning.

Posted by: runninrebel at October 08, 2012 08:53 PM (N/1Dm)

388 Looks like Mitt has a lot of surrogates campaigning for him as well. And
they have bus tours every day to get people to vote early.



I think Mia Love was in Pennsylvania.

Posted by: fluffy at October 08, 2012 09:02 PM (z9HTb)

389
Up next, a monument to Hugo Chavez
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 08, 2012 08:04 PM (5xJ3/)___ ___ ZZ Z __Z_ Z_ _ _ _ _ _ _ Z Z_ Z _ Z_____ _ _Hell, that dumbass Obama thinks that IS Hugo Chavez.

Posted by: Meremortal, trend is my friend at October 08, 2012 09:08 PM (1Y+hH)

390 38
Shit. Next thing ya know, ace will be sleeping with CAC's wife.


Sorry, I am racist. I don't do ewoks.

Posted by: CAC's Wife at October 08, 2012 09:15 PM (wR+pz)

391 "Republicans won in 2004 and 2010 not because their party identification numbers soared but rather because they turned out at a far higher rate than did Democrats."

I believe that's the point.

Posted by: obladioblada at October 08, 2012 09:22 PM (p1D8B)

392 Rasmussen tomorrow morning.

Posted by: Greg at October 08, 2012 09:37 PM (wKkyv)

393 Being an OSU grad, if Oregon goes they regained sanity

Posted by: Drunk in East Mesa at October 08, 2012 09:37 PM (hiWet)

394 14 Does anyone have projected electoral college numbers? Isn't that the end game, getting to 270.
Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 08, 2012 07:01 PM (C2//T)

The university of Colorado modified forecast count? It is almost pudding inducing. But New Mexico or pennsylvania going for Romney before Michigan does, I do not buy.

Posted by: LizLem at October 08, 2012 09:38 PM (6VkFb)

395 who gives a fuck greg?

Posted by: macaroon at October 08, 2012 09:45 PM (40pJN)

396 Oh Romney is still fundraising too. I almost always hang up on phone solicitors or survey takes of any kind but Saturday I got a call from a Romney worker looking for a pledge. That eevil mastermind had a well-spoken young women with a black accent making the call and I didn't want to hang up on a black republican (I denounce myself in advance) so I ended up pledging to match my earlier RnR donation.

Oh and she dutifully went through the whole legality stuff on the phone before ending the call (citizen, wont be money from someone else, I'm over 18, contribution limits)

Posted by: PaleRider at October 08, 2012 10:03 PM (dkExz)

397 Gerg keeps mentioning Rasmussens consumer index reading in the 90s. Fine and dandy. But, lets look at the real canary - the Consumer Confidence Index.

Keep in mind that no incumbent party has ever won the election with a Consumer Confidence Index below 100. Septembers reading is at 71.

Posted by: Jaydee at October 08, 2012 10:30 PM (E5DLT)

398 Ah! So suddenly it is important to compare a poll's partisan split to likely, plausible turnout figures, based on turnout from past elections!

CHAVEZ WINS!!!

Posted by: Douchie McSquirts at October 09, 2012 05:58 AM (gIEdm)






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