Flashback, September 14, 2000: "Why Bush Is Toast"

Via @justkarl. Something to keep in mind.

Since Labor Day, the media have released about 20 polls on the presidential race. Three show a dead heat, one shows George W. Bush leading by a single percentage point, and the rest show Al Gore leading by one to 10 points. In the latest polls, Gore leads by an average of five points. It's fashionable at this stage to caution that "anything can happen," that Bush is "retooling," and that the numbers can turn in Bush's favor just as easily as they turned against him. But they can't. The numbers are moving toward Gore because fundamental dynamics tilt the election in his favor. The only question has been how far those dynamics would carry him. Now that he has passed Bush, the race is over.

Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could be caught shagging an intern. Bush could electrify the country with the greatest performance in the history of presidential debates. But barring such a grossly unlikely event, there is no reason to think Bush will recover. Ultimately, reasons drive elections. For months, pundits yapped about Bush's lead in the polls without scrutinizing the basis of that lead. Now they're doing the same to Gore. But look closely at the trends beneath the horse-race numbers, and you'll realize why it's practically impossible to turn those numbers around. Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well.

It should be noted the "underlying factors" do not presage well for Old Man Obama this time around.

There are four possible responses to being behind in polls; we should be at stage 1. The rest are unwarranted, at least at the moment.

Stage 1. Concern

Stage 2. Great concern

Stage 3. Panic

Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth.

So we're behind. We've been behind before.

CNN, Meanwhile... has Obama over 50%, at 52%, but I've now been told by two people that if you subtract out the number of Democrats and Republicans they cop to (Democrats +5%), it turns out they only contacted 37 independents.

Not 37%. 37 total.

Among those 37, Romney's up 54-40. But then again: 37 of them.


Posted by: Ace at 06:06 PM



Comments

1 The only polls that will be reasonably close to truthful will be those within 10 days of the election. This is when the pollsters want to get their credibility back from the previous months of lying in order to influence the electorate.

It happens every damned election cycle. Not saying Mitt will sweep all 57, but I just do not see him losing the election.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 06:09 PM (+tqYo)

2

CROSSTABS!!!!

No concern is needed AT ALL until Obama leads in a likely voter poll with a D+3 sample weight.


Posted by: imp at September 10, 2012 06:09 PM (UaxA0)

3 And... FOIST!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 06:09 PM (+tqYo)

4 RE the latest CNN/ORC presidential poll-
@philipaklein @FixAaron: Good find from @GOP12, who notes that CNN shows Romney up 54-40 among indies. Suggests Dem oversample. http://t.co/zLlJ59CD

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 10, 2012 06:09 PM (YjDyJ)

5 First, well....not. Just being able to post is a freedom.

Posted by: Jack at September 10, 2012 06:10 PM (wUFaM)

6 Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth


Oh. We're not supposed to do that now? Ummm *stops sharpening elbows* Fine. I didn't want to have any fun anyway.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at September 10, 2012 06:10 PM (Gk3SS)

7 Polls are the devil's work. And I'm Beelzebub.

Posted by: The MFM at September 10, 2012 06:10 PM (eHIJJ)

8 There are four ONE possible responses to being behind in polls;


Piss on polls (POP]

Posted by: Vic at September 10, 2012 06:10 PM (YdQQY)

9 It's funny, when they couldn't run Obama against Romney, they ran Obama against Bush. That didn't work either, so now they're running Bill Clinton against Romney. Expect to see a lot more Bubba between now and November. In fact, it might get so ridiculous, you'll probably see 5x more Clinton on TV than Obama.

Posted by: Rusty Nail at September 10, 2012 06:11 PM (QxGmu)

10 OMG I don't to go through 2000 again. At least 2008 was clear-cut, one way or the other.


Posted by: jeanne at September 10, 2012 06:11 PM (GdalM)

11 May I be permitted to say something about the porn black-out?

Posted by: Serious Cat at September 10, 2012 06:12 PM (zrpqj)

12 9 Posted by: Rusty Nail at September 10, 2012 06:11 PM (QxGmu)

I think that presupposes that Bubba wants to help SCOAMF. If he loses (and I think that this is likely), he will not want to have that stink on his illustrious record (feh).

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 06:12 PM (+tqYo)

13 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 06:13 PM (6o4Fb)

14 I'll go with the approved Moron option
Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth.

Posted by: Chief Lying Harvard at September 10, 2012 06:13 PM (nTgAI)

15 Cannot believe these polls. There are entire parts of the country that are solidly against re-electing this SCOAMF. I asked a guy I work with last week who admitted he was not happy with his Obama vote but in NO way would vote for the evil GOP.... how did he think Obama would perform with a complete GOP controlled house and Senate? I then posed this: IF Obama is reelected, would not the odds of articles of impeachment being brought be very high? He admitted I raised good points. I then encouraged him to stay home in November. He said he probably would. Heh.

Posted by: Yip in Texas at September 10, 2012 06:13 PM (Mrdk1)

16

Who cares about these polls. They will be wildly inaccurate, one way or the other anyways.

Posted by: dan-O at September 10, 2012 06:13 PM (sWycd)

17
Sorry Ace....you can believe we are behind all you want...Not buying here..Swing States we are doing pretty good and will be doing better shortly....but do not worry....PPP will go PLUS DEM 20 to get Obama eqaul or higher....LOL!! Obama 46/45 in Swing States....is a joke...no bounce except one point....He started last week ay 45 percent in Swing State and today he is at 46 percent....Big One point Bounce after all that BS!! Sorry Ace...doom and gloom go join Allah you two are perfect!

But no Ace...you can think we are behind....but I think we are tied in Swing States or maybe better....

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 06:14 PM (HDcKc)

18 Now if Mitt goes back on his word on repeal, just to appease some illusory middle-of-the-roaders, then all bets are off.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 06:14 PM (+tqYo)

19 They went Full Retard. Before AND after the election.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at September 10, 2012 06:14 PM (mZ8Y2)

20 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 06:14 PM (8y9MW)

21 Everyone is saying that all the polls are showing similar bounces, but almost all the damn polls are oversampling democrats by a margin of 5-8 percentage points. This election is not going to be a D+8 election. No election has been like that in modern history. In fact, in recent years the elections have been trending towards even turnout. This simply is not going to be a huge democrat turnout election.

If a poll does not release their internals, there is no reason to believe anything they say. They (CNN, Gallup, and others) are pulling numbers out of their asses. They are discounting every single damn election since 2008.

Posted by: NWConservative at September 10, 2012 06:14 PM (M1gmo)

22 We've got this. It's going to be
Puddinglicious...

Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny at September 10, 2012 06:15 PM (cz7Un)

23 I had to drive from St. Louis to Wentzville (about 35 miles) today, and saw five big billboards for Todd Akin, and none for McCaskill. I still think Akin has a tough row to hoe to actually win (especially given that he's not going to get any GOP or PAC money) and should quit, but he's got a small chance.

I had to remind my mom last night, when she told me she was leaning McCaskill, about her not paying the $300,000 tax on her airplane until she got caught. If there were any other candidate but Akin running, the PACs could be running commercials reminding voters about that...

Posted by: Palandine at September 10, 2012 06:15 PM (g7D8V)

24 I don't care what the polls say, this year is different. Or the same. Depending on what I'm trying to say at the time. Or something. Scott Walker!

Posted by: Toldyaso at September 10, 2012 06:15 PM (/YJYi)

25 Ah yes, the attempt at a preference cascade by the left wing media industrial complex. Always suspected they would do this, they are going full tilt for Obastard even more than last time.

Will it work? Maybe. Even with less people watching the news that is still some significant free advertising for the dems. and its not only news, its every freaking show on TV, not even subtle anymore.

Nevertheless, I am only at Concern Level 1. It is still the economy, stupid.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at September 10, 2012 06:15 PM (PHb2k)

26 Lies.
Damn Lies.
Statistics.
Polls.

In that order..

Posted by: Joe Mama at September 10, 2012 06:15 PM (g+iEL)

27 Oh. We're not supposed to do that now?

Someone should probably tell Drew.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 06:16 PM (8y9MW)

28 Were not behind. The schizophrenic "hey! A poll! Polls are crap! But this one is real!" shtick is getting old already.

I understand the necessity of writing about what's news, but I can't really grok your tak on the phony polls, ace and drew m.

Do you believe them? This post seems to indicate you believe them. Or do you agree that polls are just lying with numbers, as a lot of your analysis seems to indicate?

Which is it? I'm getting tired of watching this particular game of ping-pong.

You should know my opinion by now: there's nothing scientific about polling; no more scientific than anything else in politics. Less so, in fact, since a lot of political science at least has an empirical background.

Polls are no such animal. What they lack in empiric track record; they fog over wih the veneer or statistics.

Statistical analysis works for colored ping pong balls in an urn drawn at random, and it works for electrons, but it is worthless when it comes to one person asking another group of people any particular opinion question.

"worthless" not in the sense of being totally non-predictive but rather "worthless" in he sense of being no better than the informed opinion of the pollster himself.

Posted by: Truman North, iPhone buffoon at September 10, 2012 06:16 PM (Y6uZ1)

29 I'm not worried.

Posted by: RarestRX at September 10, 2012 06:17 PM (9ct4e)

30 I asked the guy I was blowing if he would vote for Bama


Got no answer so I guess he will win.



Posted by: Oboma Faggot at September 10, 2012 06:17 PM (YdQQY)

31 >>Yes, in principle, Bush could win. The stock market could crash. Gore could be caught shagging an intern.

or sexually assaulting a masseuse.

Posted by: garrett at September 10, 2012 06:17 PM (0j3R9)

32 23

Once we're past the Sept. 23 deadline, if Akin is still showing signs of life, you may see some anti-McCaskill ads to try to make him viable.

Posted by: nickless at September 10, 2012 06:17 PM (MMC8r)

33 I think much of the bounce (small amount that there actually is) is focused in states that he was going to win anyways. Obama can push up democrat turnout in NY, CA, WA, and DC all he wants but it won't win him in OH and FL.

Posted by: NWConservative at September 10, 2012 06:18 PM (M1gmo)

34 ow if Mitt goes back on his word on repeal, just to appease some illusory middle-of-the-roaders, then all bets are off.
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at September 10, 2012 06:14 PM (+tqYo)

what did you think he meant by replace?

Posted by: avi at September 10, 2012 06:18 PM (51xVX)

35 Am I mistaken, or would rolling averages not have a non-weekend reaction to the apocalyptic jobs numbers of last Friday?

Posted by: nickless at September 10, 2012 06:18 PM (MMC8r)

36 I'd rather be in panic mode and be motivated to do everything necessary to defeat the SCoaMF, than to sit back thinking we got it all in the bag while the SCoaMF's campaign minions ready October surprises and start pulling other s**t to get Obama across the finish line.

Obama is capable of ANYTHING, especially if he feels threatened.

It is not time to panics, but it is to be ever vigilant and take nothing for granted.

Posted by: The Political Hat at September 10, 2012 06:18 PM (XvHmy)

37 I'm officially retiring my SCoaMF posts after Nov 7 whatever the result.If Obama wins the new one might be "The American people are stuttering clerfuck's of miserable failures."

Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 06:18 PM (6o4Fb)

38 If Raz had a different take, I wouldn't even be at concern level 1, but his tracking poll is..... concerning.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at September 10, 2012 06:18 PM (PHb2k)

39 The weird thing is that I was never once worried that Bush would win either time, it was certain in my mind. I knew how every election from Reagan's second one was going to turn out, without question. But I got 2006 and 2008 so wrong I don't trust my radar any more

Ah yes, the attempt at a preference cascade by the left wing media industrial complex.

I think its more they're trying to prevent the cascade for Romney. They have to fight hard to keep the bandwagon from getting any momentum because they know what will happen once that starts up. Obama can't get that, not this time. But he can stop Romney from getting it, maybe. If its close enough he can maybe manufacture a win. That can't happen if people start to pile on.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:19 PM (r4wIV)

40 polls dont vote people vote

Posted by: Walter Mondale at September 10, 2012 06:19 PM (51xVX)

41 What gives me hope is that even in 2008, with all the hope and change, appeals to racism, and economic collapse, 46% of voters still kept their sanity.

Posted by: LIGuy at September 10, 2012 06:20 PM (+usC4)

42 I'm the only poll that matters.

Posted by: Election Day at September 10, 2012 06:21 PM (g+iEL)

43 OT From the Sidebar RE: RGIII

The media has this weird condescension about black Christianity. The
media abhors Christianity as some monstrously stupid cult, but
strangely... only in white people. By the way, this kid seems pretty
darned good, alas. I say "alas" because he competes against my hated
Giants.


Yeah. I love me some RGIII, but it was really weird for this Cowboys fan to be cheering for the Redskins yesterday afternoon.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 06:21 PM (8y9MW)

44 My friends and family are all freaking out. I told them to chill, I think the turn will happen at the end. The debates will probably be cruical as this may be where people actually get to know Romney. I think he will be fast on his feet.

Posted by: Chief Lying Harvard at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (nTgAI)

45 Instead of the history of polls, I am interested in the history of how media influences elections. What examples are there of candidates who won the presidency who were NOT the media darlings?

Posted by: TD at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (DQMcq)

46 SOCK !!!!!!!!!!!!OFF

Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (nTgAI)

47 It's better to take every poll against you seriously, and skeptical of those that seem to support you.

Posted by: The Political Hat at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (XvHmy)

48 Logic: The bane of lib-tards the world over.

Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (a4CUi)

49 Well exactly. I keep saying this but here we go again: Obama in 2008 had every conceivable advantage going for him and still only pulled about 53% of the vote. He had every possible advantage and still only got a 3% majority.

He only has one of those advantages this time: the media is in his pocket, but they're not nearly as sycophantic and euphoric this time. They're trying but you can tell their heart isn't really in it.

I just don't see him winning. It could happen, but I just don't see it.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (r4wIV)

50 Has Obama been fighting a war on two fronts? Spend three years fighting Bush and only this year fighting Generic Republican and then Romney? Maybe he should have been fighting GR the whole time. Eh.

He's still [relatively] broke, right?

Posted by: Tonic Dog at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (X/+QT)

51 What examples are there of candidates who won the presidency who were NOT the media darlings?

Ronald Reagan, both George Bushes, Nixon.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:23 PM (r4wIV)

52 Again...I laugh at CNN....54-40 Romney leads with Indies but better over sample Dems to compensate....LOL!! This is right out of Ficition. But then again we all knew this was coming! They just want the top number.....Boy talk about lying eyes! Focus on the Swing States and such. I guarantee you CNN would have done whatever to show Obama over 50 percent....37 indies....LOL!! What a joke....sure we believe that CNN. Getting polls like this would be cause for concern if you are Obama. When you see Romney up by 14 points with Indies(even with this joke sample)...that is not good. A good pollster knows that oversampling of Dems to compensate is not wise!

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 06:23 PM (HDcKc)

53 What examples are there of candidates who won the presidency who were NOT the media darlings?

You mean besides every Republican to win the election since the 1940s?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 06:23 PM (8y9MW)

54 Well exactly. I keep saying this but here we go again: Obama in 2008 had every conceivable advantage going for him and still only pulled about 53% of the vote. He had every possible advantage and still only got a 3% majority. He only has one of those advantages this time: the media is in his pocket, but they're not nearly as sycophantic and euphoric this time. They're trying but you can tell their heart isn't really in it. I just don't see him winning. It could happen, but I just don't see it.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:22 PM (r4wIV)

Hard for me to add up too. I just can't see it.

Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 06:23 PM (nTgAI)

55 Some of the polls are okay. Rasmussen is okay. If the election was tomorrow, Bambi would probably win. If it was last week, he would have lost. The election is neither tomorrow or last week. Romney is going to take this.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 06:23 PM (6JMZR)

56 It's fair to say Bush is toast, or will be whenever Jeb gets around to his inevitable failure.

Posted by: Gordon undead Ramsay at September 10, 2012 06:23 PM (9HhTH)

57 Way too soon to let the polloganda get us down. That's their point. Should just make us more resolved. I do think that Barky will get credit for ending the Chicago teacher strike and a resulting bump in the bullshit polls. Whatever. I'm just going to send some more money to Mitt and some GOP candidates.

Posted by: eureka! at September 10, 2012 06:23 PM (cTjRR)

58 We're always toast and we can never win...why if I didn't know any better I'd say the newsies root for the other team or count the dead in polling.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:24 PM (LRFds)

59 Oh. We're not supposed to do that now? Ummm *stops sharpening elbows* Fine. I didn't want to have any fun anyway.
Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD/Whiteboard 2012 at September 10, 2012 06:10 PM (Gk3SS)


You're sharp elbows are always welcome.



Someone should probably tell Drew.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 06:16 PM (8y9MW)


ZING

Posted by: BCochran1981 at September 10, 2012 06:24 PM (GEICT)

60 What CNN also did not disclose is that this was a poll done entirely by calling Chicago public school teachers.

Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 06:24 PM (P6QsQ)

61 I order the WH chef to make toastthen I throw it over the fence to you starving peasants. But only afteryou beg. Four more years!

Posted by: Malia in DC at September 10, 2012 06:24 PM (wIgpo)

62 Okay I think I am officially done with the poll-reading for a while.

Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 06:25 PM (P6QsQ)

63 I've received countless political mailings and phone calls over the past several years but never, not once, a poll question on my preferential candidate for President. Or any candidate for that matter. And, yes, I have a landline.

So who are these pollsters calling? Democrat districts or members of Donks' families?

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 10, 2012 06:25 PM (eHIJJ)

64 Man. I thought primary season was a drag around here.

It's nothing compared to poll eeyore season.

Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 06:26 PM (zxrQh)

65 61I order the WH chef to make toastthen I throw it over the fence to you starving peasants. But only afteryou beg. Four more years! Posted by: Malia in DC at September 10, 2012 06:24 PM (wIgpo)I taught her well. I know you may be starving but what do you think about my $25,000 outift?

Posted by: Mooch at September 10, 2012 06:26 PM (/YJYi)

66 Full. Retard. Strength.

Posted by: iamahaiangttiam at September 10, 2012 06:27 PM (nw0Vt)

67 This Waterloo campaign should be a walk-over.

Posted by: Napoleonic Press Corps at September 10, 2012 06:27 PM (g+iEL)

68 The self-fulfilling prophecies of the MFM polls. In order:

1) Over sample Dems and under sample Repubs and Indies.
2) Post the "poll" results on every website, mention them in every newscast and print them in every paper.
2a) Voters get depressed and stay home, figuring that it's already over
3) Just in case, spread the word like crazy when all of the stay at home Democrats vote early on election day to show that the exit polls show who has already won
4) Call elections early in states with different time zones to depress votes in Racist Jesusland portion of the state
5) Proclaim that the election results showed just how accurate the early polls were

Okay people, here are your marching orders: man up. Get your ass and those of your like-minded relatives and friends to the polls on election day. If you need motivation (I know: Romney), think of how much joy you'll feel when Chrissy Matthews melts down on air, or when Mad-cow pulls out her uterus in protest of the results. Those things alone should motivate you.

Posted by: physics geek at September 10, 2012 06:27 PM (llWHs)

69 Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth


This with a obvious fresh pantload of shit will get you anything you want in life. I had a sales manager at CarMax™ throw me the keys and title to a '97 Subaru Outback and I didn't even get within 10 feet of him. I get free meals at Denny'®, pet food, movie rentals, pool supplies - and I don't even have a pool! It's really opened a lot of doors for me and my family.

Posted by: Dang at September 10, 2012 06:28 PM (R18D0)

70 Man. I thought primary season was a drag around here.

This whole f*cking last four years has been a drag. Ever since that **** McCain got the nomination, really.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 06:28 PM (6JMZR)

71
38, Guy look at Rasmussen's Swing State Tracking Poll today: it is 46/45 Obama...ONE POINT up after the whole DNC and the bounce...One point...he started the week at 45 percent....all the DNC hype he gained 1 point in the Rasmussen Swing State Tracking...that is the CRUCIAL number to look at....not the nationwide number because who knows where he polled.

All results today are from Weekend Polling, including the three day tracking polls...which will favor Dems and with the Nationals you have the DNC reaction. CNN did their poll over the weekend as well...and Romney was still up with Indies 54-40?.....Must be some serious Dem oversampling going on one way or the other.

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 06:28 PM (HDcKc)

72
We've only just begun the real process of attacking the bastard. None of this, and I meannone, matters until 1 month before the election, at most. The independents are too stupid to hold onto an opinion longer than that when new info is flying at them.



All we need to do is keep in the fight, and pound the crap out of Obastard and his commie buddies when we get in the home stretch.



Keep calm and carry on.

Posted by: Reactionary at September 10, 2012 06:28 PM (jfeoD)

73 Everyone had 2010 wrong too, until about 4 weeks prior to the election when the Repub wave started. I agree with a +5-6 Dem oversample. NC up 1% in PPP but down 10% in Survey USA, for example, or R up 2% in IBD nationally today but down 5% in CNN. Only one thing explains this--sample bias. By the way--if NM is only +5 O today in PPP, it's probably much closer than that--matches completely what R top advisors told National Review earlier today. The fundamentals of the election have not changed, and short an "October surprise" R will win this easily. Now get your panties out of a twist. PS: nobody believed the Mc Cain bounce in 2008, since the fundamentals from mid 2008 on were strongly against him.

Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 06:30 PM (RE+1w)

74 We have to look forward too in tne future:the political careers of Chelsea Clinton,Sasha and Malia Obama.

Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 06:30 PM (6o4Fb)

75 Okay I think I am officially done with the poll-reading for a while.


I'll stick to polls accompanied by CAC maps.

Posted by: fluffy at September 10, 2012 06:30 PM (z9HTb)

76 Cornwallis is a lock for a victory at Yorktown.

Posted by: Fleet Street POLLING at September 10, 2012 06:31 PM (g+iEL)

77 73 It wasn't a wave though.Greg told me.

Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 06:31 PM (6o4Fb)

78 I don't think we should worry. Romney is just now opening his war chest and people are only now becoming engaged.

Anecdotally, I just spent the day at a charity golf event during which I spoke at length with a wealthy trial atty. He voted for Obama last time, but will not do so again. He reports that everywhere he goes, traveling in really well-heeled circles, people who voted for Obama last time are saying they will vote for Romney. That includes his African American business partner who was a major bundler for Obama last time.

Posted by: Y-not at September 10, 2012 06:31 PM (5H6zj)

79 More than anything, I think very few of us are in touch with just how uninformed the average voter is. I have yet to talk to anyone here - in a very liberal bastion full of moonbats - who knows who the f*ck Sandra Fluke is. None of them know. I've mentioned her and none of them know. They know other stuff. But they don't even know who she is.

Either way, this election will be decided by political idiots. But I have faith that Americans, as a whole, do not want four more years of this ****.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 06:31 PM (6JMZR)

80 Stage 4. Spazzing out with full, 100% Retard Strength, going at people like a whirlwind of elbows and teeth


Ace, everyone knows you never go full on retard.

Posted by: Kirk Lazarus at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (1grxW)

81 >>46% of voters still kept their sanity.

'Sanity'.
That's another racist dog whistle.

Posted by: Toure at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (0j3R9)

82 I dont get it. We know the media has totally jumped the shark and no longer have any pretext unbiased reporting. But, we are supposed to believe these pollsters? Are they not cut from the same cloth?

Posted by: Havedash at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (ToMJU)

83 I'm surprised noone seems to note that four years ago, coming out of their convention, McCain/Palin got a bounce and had a LEAD over Obama. And the result wasn't even close the other way.

Posted by: Uncle Milty at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (8J5Ck)

84 "We have to look forward too in tne future:the political careers of Chelsea Clinton,Sasha and Malia Obama."

Don't forget me! Didn't you hear my reviews from the DNC speech?

Posted by: Mooch at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (zxrQh)

85 Are you still fretting about the polls, man? My goodness! Get a hold of yourself!

Barry is going down under a monster landslide.

Posted by: runninrebel at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (N/1Dm)

86 Poll this, America!

It's out of Obama's control. Who says, "Yeah, I want four more years of what we just had. Who knows... it'll probably get even worse. Yippee!"

Posted by: The Economy, Un(der)employment, and Debt at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (eHIJJ)

87 I truly believe that Gallup "leaked" those threatening e-mails from Axlerod to warn us that all polls are bunk this season. Who knows who ELSE Axelrod threatened? The pollsters needed an "event" to explain why they're suddenly finding good numbers for O and they decided that the DNC would be the excuse.

I don't for one minute believe that my fellow Americans were at all impressed by O's empty speech, Fluke, female Howard Dean Granholm, any of the other speakers, the booing of God, abortionpalooze, etc. The pollsters are threatened and needed to find good polls for O.

I'm very thankful those e-mails were "leaked" by Gallup; they did us a great service.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 06:33 PM (KL49F)

88 79 TMI,

amen...anyone 25 and under only understands the engine of US dynamism because they sought the knowledge.

The more young'ums he gets off the couch the more like Choom pulls out the upset.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:33 PM (LRFds)

89 Chelsea Clinton,Sasha and Malia Obama.

It's been too long since we've had a good moustache in the White House.

Posted by: garrett at September 10, 2012 06:34 PM (0j3R9)

90 Here are my comments about Bush. In general, the base wanted to vote for Bush. They wanted to vote for Bush more than they wanted to vote against Gore (and by extension Clinton) and certainl than against Kerry (who was the challenger). I think Dems had different view. Their base wanted to vote against Bush more than vote for either Gore or Kerry who were both pretty lackluster candidates. That has always been my concern with Romney. The base wants to vote against Obama more than voting for Romney. Now Obama is so bad, it may be enough (I think it actually will be enough). And Romney may yet give more reasons to want to vote for him (the Ryan pick helped).

That being said, the Bush/Gore election is certainly different. There really wasn't muchof adifference (or known difference) in the candidates. Now looking back on it,we can see there is a big difference. And I am thankful Bush was in officeand that Gore was able to fleece millions on some environmental ponzi scheme. Good work if you can get it. But this election shows a much starker contrast between the candidates.

I think the debates will bevery important for Romney. Head to head, he really needs to go at Obama and show how different his worldview is from Obama's. One big debate momentcan cinch this for Romney and maybe guaranty a landslide.

Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 06:34 PM (gmeXX)

91 84 Mooch,

You have to be born in America, or more pointedly on Earth to be eligible love...

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:34 PM (LRFds)

92 Posted by: Uncle Milty at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (8J5Ck) One key difference: Obama was not burdened by having a record of gross failure yet at that point. Plus, everybody was geeked about having a sortof-black president. Now the novelty is gone for many, and for the rest - they've seen what Hope N Change got them.

Posted by: Reactionary at September 10, 2012 06:34 PM (jfeoD)

93 Feels exactly like 2008 to me.

Right around this time in '08, people in the dextroblogosphere were starting to discreetly clear their throats and point to the polls and say to the McCain campaign, "Uh, fellas? Hello? Are you seeing this too?"

And what the crackerjack McCain campaign operatives said was, soothingly, "Things are FINE. Couldn't be better. Don't panic. Don't be Eeyores. We anticipated this. It'll all come clean, the Democrats' bounce will fade, we'll have a tightened up race by Election Day, and win it."

We all know how that ended.

So what are the Romney campaign operatives saying now?

"Things are FINE. Couldn't be better. Don't panic. Don't be Eeyores. We anticipated this.
It'll all come clean, the Democrats' bounce will fade, we'll have a
tightened up race by Election Day, and win it."

That sounds oddly familiar for some reason.

Oh! Wait! I get it. Romney's campaign operatives include a bunch of McCain retreads from '08. Back to re-implement their strategy that worked so well last time.

What could go wrong with that?

Posted by: torquewrench at September 10, 2012 06:35 PM (ymG7s)

94 I believe we are down right now. I also believe, if we're going to take a historical look at the numbers and what they meant in the past, then we also have to consider a few other factors.

Obama started campaigning earlier than ever, both officially and unofficially. Romney has pulled in a lot of cash and is now really starting to spend it.

We're down a little, but I expect everything from here out to be us chipping away at it.

Posted by: Dave S. at September 10, 2012 06:35 PM (/BwGa)

95 This election will be decided in the swing states.....lets face it....those polls will be the ones that determine the election. I am sure the Romney team is polling the heck out of the Swing States...this National BS is garbage....remember....Iowa, Florida, Virginia, Wis, North Carolina, Ohio, NH, Colorado and Nevada are the ones that matter PLAIN AND SIMPLE. Michigan I think will be in play....Penn is the questionable one...These 9 other states will determine the election. Focus on them! Watch Rasmussen' Swing State Tracker....and those state polls (NOT INCLUDING PPP which will go through hoops and twist more pretzels on samples to show Obama tied or ahead).

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 06:35 PM (HDcKc)

96 P.S. With all that said, we R/R need to act like these fake polls are real. The whole point of fake polls is to make the sheeple fall into group-think and follow the herd. We must not let these fake numbers seep into voters' conciousness. We must pretend we are 20 points behind.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 06:35 PM (KL49F)

97 If you guys want a good laugh you should wiki PPP. It actually has a reference in which it claims someone called it republican leaning. That someoneis Nate Silver of theNY Times and is also linked to when PPP is described democrat leaning. Wiki FTW.

Posted by: Adam at September 10, 2012 06:36 PM (/YJYi)

98 Think about what the pros who have the real data are thinking. If O was up by so much, wouldn't you see ads and movement in MO? Wouldn't you see more ads in NC? While they are spinning all they want, do you see one O insider claim a 6% victory, which would be landslide numbers? In fact, Austin Goolsbe reflected the insider thinking when he let slip that O has a 50-50 chance at this point based on the fundamentals. The R insiders according to the National Review today think that barring an unforseen October surprise they have this one in the bag. However, I wish they would go for the jugular on O's ideology--that would really cream him and probably help down ticket.

Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 06:36 PM (RE+1w)

99 Barry is going down under a monster landslide.


Oh, my!!

Posted by: George Takei at September 10, 2012 06:36 PM (z9HTb)

100 More people voted for Gore than Bush in 2000, so it's not too heartening.

Posted by: Crispian at September 10, 2012 06:36 PM (uBMtY)

101 According to a majority of Chicago fans, the Cubs will win the World Series this year . Also, the Blackhawks will take the Stanley Cup.

Posted by: Windy City POLLING at September 10, 2012 06:36 PM (g+iEL)

102 I think Romney is going to win handily, but I have two sage words for everyone here:

Forget f*cking Pennsylvania

And ignore any "projections" that don't show it some shade of blue.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (6JMZR)

103 The Media: Just Trying to Help and Report Objective Reality.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (lEcZh)

104 I would add trying this unscientific poll.

How many people you know voted for McCain will vote for the JEF this time?
How many people you know voted for the JEF last time but not this time?

Incumbents don't win when they lose prior voters and do not gain new ones.

Posted by: eureka! at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (cTjRR)

105 Posted by: fluffy at September 10, 2012 06:30 PM (z9HTb)

How about with dancers wrapped around them?

I like those polls.



Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (2b4yb)

106 Michigan I think will be in play

Michigan is in play. I'm cautiously optimistic it goes Red. I'm virtually certain WI will go red. BackwardsBoy informs me it looks like FL will go red.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (8y9MW)

107 Even though Rass swing state tracker is tied, I think even Rass is oversampling D at this point.

Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (RE+1w)

108 As I recall, that was the election of the drunk driving story ambush the Saturday before the election; a story they sat on on purpose for that exact release. That damned near won it for Gore.

Something they tried again in 2004. Only they shot their TANG story too soon.

Also: I keep saying, don't bother with the media-affiliated polls. They've gone so far for the JEF, they've already rationalized away any reason to maintain their credibility. None of them will honestly produce a result that puts the JEF any more than 3% behind. Up to and including election day. They don't care--they only care to win.

Worry about the non-affiliated polls. And then, only those who release ALL the internals.

Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (imtbm)

109 Yeah, the polls ALWAYS insist the Democrat will win, just like now.

Posted by: Max Power at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (q177U)

110 It's not at if it would occur to them that they have a lot of Power and Influence and could use that Power and Influence to uh influence people and create the reality they desire.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:38 PM (lEcZh)

111 SH: I think the debates will be very important for Romney."

Don't you know it. And we're prepping for it like you wouldn't believe. We figure we'll convince at least a third of America that Mormons drink puppy blood instead of alcohol.

Posted by: MFM Frontmen at September 10, 2012 06:38 PM (eHIJJ)

112 So who are these pollsters calling?

Me, about five times a day, dammit. I'm not kidding. Never register independent unless you want to get hammered by pollsters.

As Ace has pointed out in the past (but doesn't take his own advice) the polls are crap until about October, when they have to tighten down and get serious or be a laughing stock.

Until that final crunch they can be as wild, outrageous, off base, and mis-sampled as they want to get their political point across.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:38 PM (r4wIV)

113 I don't want to panic, but I saw an Obama cup rolling around on the ground at 7-11, and it occurred to me that there may be enough stupid clueless fucks in this country willing to have sloppy seconds of O.

I think we're terminally fucked. People want freebies and don't really give a flying fuck that we have a 16 trillion dollar debt because they want what they want and that's all there is to it and fuck you all racists if you don't like it.



Posted by: Dufuq Izthis at September 10, 2012 06:38 PM (zNbHv)

114 "Those who do not comment against evil are condemned to eternal sock-puppetry"

I was living overseas during the whole Gore v Bush period so I don't really know what was happening on the ground. I can tell you that the BBC, Russian media and the EU in general made it sound like the GOP and Bush were some sort of armed cabal of Nazis bent on a coup and known to kill minorities trying to vote. So hearing the "USA" MSM push loaded polls non-stop seems pretty mild. I might add that having lived through the Carter years I remember the media shock and awe at how crazy the Country was to actually elect that old actor instead of the future.

Posted by: Daybrother at September 10, 2012 06:38 PM (1FkrP)

115 In fact, it might get so ridiculous, you'll probably see 5x more Clinton on TV than Obama.
Posted by: Rusty Nail at September 10, 2012 06:11 PM (QxGmu)

Nah.

Posted by: Max Power at September 10, 2012 06:39 PM (q177U)

116 Anyways, there's nothing to worry about. And here's why:

1) The Bradley Effect is in full uh effect.

2) The Electoral College, bitches. Time to enroll for classes.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:39 PM (lEcZh)

117 Here's my take, short version:


The mainstream media polls are mainstream media polls. Mainstrean media is an arm of the Democrat Party and is not a beacon of journalistic integrity. Ask yourself what interest they serve. Ask yourself if they have an interest in seeing a Republican elected.

Now - what can work to stop the Republicans from being elected? Obama's stellar record? The booming economy? Our bright and rosy future under another 4 years of Barry? No.

The only thing that can stop the Republicans from being elected is painting a scenario where Obama is inevitable and there's no real chance for Romney. So you might as well give up.

Because, and this is my main point, they KNOW that the other side is NOT fired up to vote for Obama this time around. Their side is discouraged so the only play they have is to attempt to equalize that discouragement and duplicate it on our side.

This is why posts like Drew's this morning infuriated me. Because this type of talk is aiding and abetting them in their mission.

They are going to try to defeat our side by lowering morale. Why would we even THINK of playing along?



Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 06:40 PM (P6QsQ)

118 And, yes, Romney's campaign is starting to remind me of McCain's. And all I can say is: "NOOOoooooooooooo!"

Romney had better get his head in the game and quick.

Do you think Romney should do some major speeches on the economy? It needs to be covered by major networks not just CSPAN, like O's "great race speech" about Wright. Romney needs to call a presser or something. Or use his huge warchest and buy time like Perot did. Something.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 06:40 PM (KL49F)

119 Worry about the non-affiliated polls. And then, only those who release ALL the internals.

And them only over a time period for trends, and even then, only the last month or two of the race, when they have to bear down and get serious.

Polling organizations live and die on accuracy, they can play all the games they want early on, but if they're way off in the end, they lose business. They have to get it closer to reality by the election.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:40 PM (r4wIV)

120 "Sir, I agree to this Constitution, with all its faults, if they are such; because I think a general Government necessary for us, and there is no form of government but what may be a blessing to the people, if well administered; and I believe, farther, that this is likely to be well administered for a course of years, and can only end in despotism, as other forms have done before it, when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other." - Benjamin Franklin - Speech to the Constitutional Convention (1787-06-2

Posted by: Daybrother at September 10, 2012 06:40 PM (1FkrP)

121 @102. Play for PA. The swing state strategy may get you a victory, but it will be a narrow victory (and it doesn't guaranty it). We played the swing state game in 2000 and 2004 and barely won. Obama played an everystate strategy and won big. We should be doing the same. We should be playing offense and let Obama play the swing state game. Go big or go home.

Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 06:40 PM (gmeXX)

122 yeah, I noticed this with other polls, once you take out the D+100 and other immovables, the I's are going for Romney to make the overall race Romney 60, Obama 40. Unless, Romney lets Obama implement "Operation: Let Kenyans vote via military ballots this year" which you know, would help get in some more D's into the voting pool.

Posted by: joeindc44 will boo your chosen deity on TV some day too at September 10, 2012 06:41 PM (QxSug)

123 Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 10, 2012 06:37 PM (6JMZR)

Every electoral college victory I have gamed out has left PA to the Dems.

Well, except for the fantasy one in which Romney takes 48 states and has Obama put in stocks in front of the White House.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at September 10, 2012 06:41 PM (2b4yb)

124 Also, you need to print of the graphic from HillBuzz about the media will help with polling to create the illusion the JEF is ahead. Link in name.

Honest question: Is there any poll out there showing a D +4 or more in party self-ID?

Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 06:41 PM (imtbm)

125 116 MUMR,

One thing that would make Ras make sense would be the Blue state indys trending Choom....

which means we won't make big gains in the blue at all...

*blech*

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:41 PM (LRFds)

126 Posted by: Windy City POLLING at September 10, 2012 06:36 PM (g+iEL)

Even Cubs' fans aren't that delusional, LOL, butI'm sure there are some fake pollsters who would find that result.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (KL49F)

127 Perfect post - thank you. This is only the beginning of the full on, "Romney Campaign Faltering, Worried" angst-ridden headlines. By this time next month, headlines will be announcing an Obama win - before a single vote is cast. We have to be mentally ready.

Posted by: Daisy at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (4h5id)

128 CNN, having received their latest orders from Axelrod, is now asking whether the Romney campaign is worried.

Posted by: Miss80sBaby at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (YjDyJ)

129 Anybody else ever take a good look at the people you pass on the highway with Obama bumper stickers?

Here in CT, they all seem to be old hippies or shrewish looking broads with hipster glasses and pixie cuts.

Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (zxrQh)

130
94..Dave here in Florida some great ads have begun to air from the Super Pacs for Romney and they are really good! You are right....the timing for the ads is now and they are indeed coming here. Now I am in a the biggest swing state of them all and my Orlando area(Central Florida) is the must win area of the state. He who wins Central Florida(Tampa, Orlando and Daytona)wins the state. The ads started airing during the NFL yesterdayand just saw one during the US Open Men's Finalin Tennis airing now.

The swing state ad blitz has begun....those of us in the swing states will see it more than anyone else. In Florida we are feeling better about our chances for Romney all the time....GOP officials here are doing fabulous on the GOTV and know what needs to be done. I know some people will not see that in their states but here I do! The swing states is where the action is. I feel Romney is up in the swing states....Obama has been here for 2 days straight in Florida and that should tell you something. And it rained all day yesterday on Obama...lol!

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (HDcKc)

131 Take it from someone who lives in PA. MegaIndependent. (1) Coal and fracking are a big deal for everyone east of Harrisburg--O's going down there, even in the Pittsburgh suburbs. He's taking Critz with him. (2) there is a very strong voter ID law in PA this cycle, so Philly "turnout" will definitely be lower. (3) PA is majority Repub right now at every level of state government. (4) this election comes down to the north Philly suburbs, and I think there is enough disappointment with O there that the Dems don't turn out in enough numbers to keep it. This one is going to be very close, and I suspect some ad buys in late Sept.

Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (RE+1w)

132 117

Excellent.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (lEcZh)

133 All over this one on Twitter. DRI is D+9.6. D/R/I percentages are 44/34/21.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM (XrGnJ)

134 I believe there is a statistic that no incumbent has ever won without increasing their electoral college total. Can someone vouch for that? I don't see Obama increasing his. If true it is an interesting note (one that I hope continues).

Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 06:43 PM (gmeXX)

135 124 RO,

if you emanis there any tracking showing the partisan split D+4...no none at all Ras is the only one to track it and release the method and they say R+4...

"we'll see"

2010 was D+2 tops

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:43 PM (LRFds)

136 Ace, you concern troll RINO!!!

Posted by: HoboJerky, now with 45% more DOOM! at September 10, 2012 06:43 PM (xAtAj)

137 There's no way that Obama can lose. Just look at those polls.

Posted by: Mayor Tom Bradley at September 10, 2012 06:43 PM (pXAES)

138 I'm in NC and the ads here are AWFUL. Boring. Gray, Bland, YAWN YAWN. They need to step it up!!

Posted by: janetoo at September 10, 2012 06:44 PM (R+fMx)

139 DEBATES ! How do they fookin work ?

Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 06:44 PM (nTgAI)

140 118

Here's what Romney should say:

1) Obama is the president, and I'm not.

2) If you like your ObamaEconomy, you can keep your ObamaEconomy.

3) Whatever, bitches. I'm loaded, and will be fine no matter what.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:44 PM (lEcZh)

141 Ha ha ha ha ha.

Ha.

Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:44 PM (t1NLo)

142 @138

Also in NC, this state's a lock for Romney anyway, better that he spend that ad money somewhere else.

Posted by: JDTAY at September 10, 2012 06:45 PM (a0nis)

143 ...or shrewish looking broads with hipster glasses and pixie cuts.
Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 06:42 PM
--------------------------
That's what they look like in their larval stage

Posted by: Very Concerned Pachyderm at September 10, 2012 06:45 PM (ay6+/)

144 I just ran a poll, and it was 100% Romney, -100% Obama. And it was a +1 R poll.

Posted by: jwpaine at September 10, 2012 06:45 PM (FUozQ)

145 DEBATES ! How do they fookin work ?
Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 06:44 PM

You think Rmoney is not preparing for these debates ? He is Letting Obama show his cards .

Lots

Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 06:45 PM (nTgAI)

146 131--I meant West of Harrisburg.

Posted by: Interested Party at September 10, 2012 06:45 PM (RE+1w)

147 119

They try to manufacture reality. There's more than one way to converge reality and fiction.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:45 PM (lEcZh)

148 26
Lies.
Damn Lies.
Statistics.
Polls.

In that order..
----------------
Lies
Damn Lies
Statistics
Polls
Obama

You forgot one.

Posted by: Evan Maughan at September 10, 2012 06:45 PM (C0YLz)

149 Do you guys really think romney will do well in the debates?

Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:46 PM (t1NLo)

150 Just got back from a spec ops mission with my unit of the Alpha Rangers Omega Branch Charlie squad. I'm going to go hang out with my super model wife on my yacht.

Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:46 PM (/YJYi)

151 Don't forget me! Didn't you hear my reviews from the DNC speech?

Posted by: Mooch at September 10, 2012 06:32 PM (zxrQh)

Oh, Mooch, life gonna be tough on a sistah who can't get no fashion, bling, or expert wig and makeup advice no moah.

Posted by: Will be taking applications & buying love slaves nice things using oil stock dividends after R/R win at September 10, 2012 06:46 PM (kXoT0)

152 @140. That ad works for me. Of course, I would like to hear Mitt say, heck yes I'm rich, but why are you so worried about how much I own and less about how worse off you are under Obama.

Posted by: SH at September 10, 2012 06:46 PM (gmeXX)

153 @149

I don't think he can win the debates with the media being the judge, but I trust him not to gaffe.

Posted by: JDTAY at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (a0nis)

154 Do you guys really think Romney will do well in the debates? Cuz I gotta tell you I get a major stiffy just thinking about Obama. In the debates I mean.

Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (/YJYi)

155 It's funny, when they couldn't run Obama against Romney, they ran Obama against Bush. That didn't work either, so now they're running Bill Clinton against Romney. Expect to see a lot more Bubba between now and November. In fact, it might get so ridiculous, you'll probably see 5x more Clinton on TV than Obama. Posted by: Rusty Nail at September 10, 2012 06:11 PM (QxGmu)

I am so stealing that. In fact, I just did.

Posted by: jwpaine at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (FUozQ)

156 August's report on Obama:



96,000 jobs created.

370,000 people gave up looking for a job.

22,000 businesses ceased to exist.

176,000 new food stamp moochers.

32,000 new SSDI approvals.



The country cannot take too many more Obama Augusts. The country knows this and will remove the 0.

Posted by: jukin at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (5oKRH)

157 120

"when the people shall become so corrupted as to need despotic government, being incapable of any other"

What is Obama, but a despot (and a dog eater, I guess)? What is Socialism, but despotism?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (lEcZh)

158 I think we're terminally fucked. People want freebies and don't really give a flying fuck that we have a 16 trillion dollar debt because they want what they want and that's all there is to it and fuck you all racists if you don't like it.Posted by: Dufuq Izthis at September 10, 2012 06:38 PM (zNbHv) Well, things could already be this bad. In the end this is unavoidable, since even so-called conservatives seem to buy into the idea of paying the trash of humanity to breed like rats. But I'm not sure we're at that stage yet. The stupid is strong, but the ants still outnumber the grasshoppers. But let's say it goes against us this time. Then, much of our feeling of responsibility is alleviated. If Americans choose 4 more years of Obama, then they deserve what they get, and our job as individuals is simple - suck every drop of blood we can out of this nation and the economyfor ourselves, and look out only for ourselves and our kind. F**k the rest of 'em. I will feel no remaining shreds of allegiance to these fools.

Posted by: Reactionary at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (jfeoD)

159 Obama's totally winning, and don't you think for a second that Obama's not going to win because OBAMA IS TOTALLY WINNING. TOTALLY WINNING. And before anyone points out that I've NEVER BEEN RIGHT ABOUT ANYTHING EVER, just remember OBAMA'S TOTALLY WINNING. Bank on it. Totally. Winning.

Posted by: Gerg = Tard, yeah so? at September 10, 2012 06:48 PM (aHR5E)

160 121

Especially when you have more cash.


Open as many fronts as possible.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:48 PM (lEcZh)

161 Do you guys really think Romney will do well in the debates? Cuz I gotta tell you I get a major stiffy just thinking about Obama. In the debates I mean.
Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (/YJYi)

Sounds like RAYKON

Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 06:48 PM (nTgAI)

162 It was always obvious Obama would get a bounce after the convention. Always. It always happens. It was just as obvious that the press did their best to bury any bounce Romney got, and will from now until some unforseeable point the entire culture shifts be totally in the tank for Democrats. We cannot rely on the press for information during elections. As tilted as they are between times, they can be useful then, but on this topic, during an election, they're as useless as a news report from the official North Korean propaganda engine. That's the number one thing to keep in mind. PPP is no better, they're utterly useless.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:48 PM (r4wIV)

163

believe there is a statistic that no incumbent has ever won without increasing their electoral college total.
Posted by: SH




FDR 1940 and 1944

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 10, 2012 06:49 PM (kdS6q)

164 Remember, folks. I suck cock by choice. Thank you.

Posted by: Average Jon at September 10, 2012 06:49 PM (aHR5E)

165 125

Hmmm.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:49 PM (lEcZh)

166 161
Do you guys really think Romney will do well in the debates? Cuz I gotta
tell you I get a major stiffy just thinking about Obama. In the debates
I mean.

Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:47 PM (/YJYi)

Yes Romney will do well in the debates. The media will say Obama won, but it won't matter if people actually watch..

Posted by: the pink not panicking about one poll formerly known as the hobbit Donna at September 10, 2012 06:49 PM (W2Z3C)

167 It was 4 years ago today that Steve Cohen (Dem Representative, Memphis) went nuts comparing Obama to Jesus (Jesus was a community organizer) and Palin to Pilate (both governors). Anyone else remember that? Cohen's loony comment was one of many that indicated the Democrats were in a panic mode at this point because The One was slightly behind in the polls.

Posted by: ilrndude at September 10, 2012 06:50 PM (aUnng)

168 Writing's all over the wall guys. Romney's gonna lose. It's simply becoming more clear.

Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:50 PM (t1NLo)

169 I believe there is a statistic that no incumbent has
ever won without increasing their electoral college total. Can someone
vouch for that? I don't see Obama increasing his. If true it is an
interesting note (one that I hope continues).

Posted by: SH


Medved has been flogging his new e-book that discusses the popular vote:

"Among the 24 elected presidents who sought second terms, all 15 who earned back-to-back victories drew more support in bids for re-election than they did in their previous campaigns."

Posted by: Joseph Vissarionovich at September 10, 2012 06:51 PM (NRwWP)

170 It was 4 years ago today that Steve Cohen (Dem Representative, Memphis) went nuts comparing Obama to Jesus

***

Cohen?

JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Posted by: Reality Drek at September 10, 2012 06:51 PM (aHR5E)

171 168 Yawn,

great glad to hear it you can stay home then....see ya Yawn bye bye we're convinced.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:51 PM (LRFds)

172 The key to me is independents. If independents are with us, I'm confident we'll match the Dems turnout. So even with a small sample, I find that CNN poll encouraging.

Posted by: Unemployed since February at September 10, 2012 06:51 PM (06qTP)

173 Kevin in ABQ: "...DRI is D+9.6. D/R/I percentages are 44/34/21."

There you go. GIGO. 10% more D than R? Absurd to the point of worthlessness. After the landslide wipeout of 2010, the redistricting due to the advantage of Republican electoral success, the increase in GOP membership, and the decrease in Dem membership?

C'mon.

Poll blogging needs to get the heave ho until the second week in October at the earliest.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 10, 2012 06:51 PM (eHIJJ)

174 The debates should be fun to watch not for their content but for the furious spin by the press. Obama already has won with soaring, historical and oh so presidential a presence and statements. Romney came across as robotic, unprepared, and oh yes, unpresidential. He was cold, he seemed mean spirited and angry, even heartless.

That's the narrative prepared even before the debates begin. Obama could walk on stage pull his pants down and take a steaming crap then lie in it, rubbing it all over his body and they would report it as a big win by him. The only question is how they'll try to spin it.

And that's where the fun comes in, like a drinking game. You probably all remember how they just blew off the outrageous, blatant lies Obama and especially Biden told during the debates. Palin buried Biden so he just started making crap up and nobody called him on it.

That's what we have coming, and it will be fun to watch them work hard to turn it all into a glorious festival of unprecedented genius by the Dear Leader.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:52 PM (r4wIV)

175
Some may not like the swing state tragedy but remember those states are the ones whether you like it or not turn the election. I want Mitt to work Michigan and Penn but the GOTV is the key and you must allocate your resources the best you can. Why waste money on California or New York? I agree I want the battlefield to expand but what states? I looks like Linda McMahon may win Senate Seat in Conn....but could Romney? I doubt it...but possible. Is Minnesota a long shot? could be but again you have to allocate resources...WI is an expansion from 2008 and hopefully Michigan will be as well. Rove just talked about New Poll in New Mexico that has Obama's lead there down to 5 points from 9 or 10 points. It in interesting but in several blue states has anyone elsenoticed Obama's leads dropping as well? New Jersey down to 6 or 7....not saying inplay but that is telling!

CNN I am sure polled New York, Maryland, Washington, Northern Virginia, San Fran, Seattle and Portland.....and throwin Chicago as well...lol!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 06:52 PM (HDcKc)

176 171
168 Yawn,

great glad to hear it you can stay home then....see ya Yawn bye bye we're convinced.

I think it's a sock or Gerg, or toldyaso..

Posted by: the pink not panicking about one poll formerly known as the hobbit Donna at September 10, 2012 06:52 PM (W2Z3C)

177 Dig my crazy convincing skills.

I wonder if I should ask Mr. Axelrod for a raise.

Posted by: Average Jon at September 10, 2012 06:52 PM (aHR5E)

178 @162

You can get useful info out of polls sometimes.

Like Romney leading 54-40 among independents. Just imagine that with a proper sample...

*schadenboner*

Posted by: JDTAY at September 10, 2012 06:52 PM (a0nis)

179 i want good news! give me some reward for not being on the government tit!

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 06:52 PM (p3a8+)

180
I'm paranoid at the ad campaigns.

Obama has "Romney is going to tax the middle class" bullshit ads here.
I see nothing from Romney.
Who makes sure that ads that are paid for actually hit the air. After all, we all know leftists control it all.
Also, Romney's ads need to sayth following. So far not seeing it.
Soyndra/Abound Solar and all the other failed start-ups that were just tax payer money going to democrat cronys and donors Why no ad?

Metnion how Obama is going to tax the middle class. He has to! to pay for his spending projects.
Remind voters of nancy Pelosi. Everyon hates her.
etc...

Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 06:52 PM (O7ksG)

181 Oh. We're not supposed to do that now? Ummm *stops sharpening elbows*

Ahem...shall I put the whetstone away now Mistress? Or will you need it for this evening's hobo gutting?

Posted by: Sean Bannion at September 10, 2012 06:53 PM (ZGmwP)

182 Right Choom is up less than 5 with a D+4 and a ridiculous partisan split on top of it factoring I's...

even LV mdoels rely on sample and they are insisting on fucking the sample.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:53 PM (LRFds)

183 138

Don't worry. Obama's ads will be FABULOUS.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:53 PM (lEcZh)

184 Poll blogging needs to get the heave ho until the second week in October at the earliest.

Yeah I only wish. I hate polls. Hate them. They are modern day astrology, they're looking at tea leaves and lines on your hand and trying to predict the future and people get all bent out of shape staring at them. What does it mean? WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!1!!!!1!

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:53 PM (r4wIV)

185 It was always obvious Obama would get a bounce after the convention. Always. It always happens.

Sorry, but there is no excuse for that pathetic freak show to get anything but a drop. It was nothing but non-stop insanity, lies, and depravity. A bounce from that repulsive turd-fest says a lot about the nature of the current American population and the fact that we are a truly diseased nation, at this point. It's sad and pathetic but it's better to know than to keep it hidden or ignored.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at September 10, 2012 06:54 PM (X3lox)

186 (via talk radio host Mark Belling)

"Why Romney wins Wisconsin":



1. The addition of Paul Ryan. Wisconsinites are very loyal to and proud of their state. They are proud of Paul Ryan, that he is considered the smartest man in government.

2. Wisconsin is open to the message of fiscal reform. We were told that the sky was going to fall because of Scott Walker's reforms, and lo and behold they did not fall.

3. 2000 and 2004 Presidential elections, while they went Dem, were pretty much dead heats and the elecorate has moved right.

4. Momentum. Republicans in this state are on a long and successful roll. We are getting very used to winning and are mobilized to do so again.

Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 06:54 PM (P6QsQ)

187 Random hypothetical question: are there any semi accurate polls out there tabulating the popular vote for Romney vs Obama? I know it doesn't matter since we're a republic not a democracy (and I'm so grateful that's the case, I like the vote of every state mattering, no matter how small the pop.) I'm just curious about it, though I suspect any I poll I try to hunt down will skew ridiculously for Obama, meh.

Posted by: LizLem at September 10, 2012 06:54 PM (8wqqE)

188 176 Donna,

No, I think Yawn thee is another legacy troll....


Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:54 PM (LRFds)

189 The writing is all of my bedroom wall guys. You should see it. I used my seaman to write "Fore More Years!" across my Obama HOPE poster.

Posted by: Jon at September 10, 2012 06:54 PM (/YJYi)

190 What does it mean? WE'RE ALL DOOMED!!1!!!!1!

***

Finally somebody gets it. Mr. Axelrod will be so happy!

Posted by: Gerg = Tard, yeah so? at September 10, 2012 06:55 PM (aHR5E)

191 And I gotta say it again: I have never, ever seen such a mighty effort to convince the GOP to give up and go home before.

I mean, the sheer number of sources ALL saying the same thing over the weekend was and remains amazing.

Qui bono?

One frickin' poll, trading of the old reputation that is Gallup and you'd think it was November 8, 2012.

A two point bump from the pre-convention standing.

Axlerod has one play: Get your guy in the lead, run in the lead, and you will never, ever, ever get bogged down in specifics or details.

He has to get his guy in the lead.

And the word has gone out.

Qui bono?

Steady. Steady. Patience. Patience. Don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes.

Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 06:55 PM (imtbm)

192 "Among those 37, Romney's up 54-40. But then again: 37 of them."



If I were a CNN hack, I would have panicked too and stopped calling independents or including their data too.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at September 10, 2012 06:55 PM (8JpQH)

193 165 MUMR,

Ras using the same method has swings +1 Choom trending back towards Romney...

you have another hypothesis?

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:55 PM (LRFds)

194 I used my seaman to write "Fore More Years!" across my Obama HOPE poster

And here I thought you hated the military.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at September 10, 2012 06:55 PM (ZGmwP)

195 149

Against Obama? How couldn't he?

Obama can't do anything but read a teleprompter.

And he has to defend the ObamaYears and the ObamaEconomy.


The emperor has no clothes.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:56 PM (lEcZh)

196 150

Sounds exciting.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:56 PM (lEcZh)

197 WHY THE HELL IS OBAMA WINNING? by Niall Ferguson

—> http://bit.ly/RBeU7U

Posted by: Walter Freeman at September 10, 2012 06:56 PM (kqGWM)

198 187 LizLem,

Ras is within its normal cycle sorta has Choom +1 on normal +2-4 phase for the weekend at +5 but the swing state model is +1Choom trending back to R....

odd shit....

and 37 fucking indys?

"Really"?

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (LRFds)

199
Romney needs to speak right into the camera and say something awesome. There is so much.

Remind voters (with atcual footage) about Obmaa's promise that his failure would mean a "one term proposition".


Remindvoters that Obama promised to "cut the deficit in half."
IN HALF!
Get with the program Romney.

Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (O7ksG)

200 And he has to defend the ObamaYears and the ObamaEconomy.

He'll do that by saying it's Bushes fault. I hope Romney is ready with an answer for that...

Posted by: the pink not panicking about one poll formerly known as the hobbit Donna at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (W2Z3C)

201 Even leftists are admitting that Romney is killing with Independents, just steamrolling Obama. And since there are fewer Democrats than even in 2010, with low enthusiasm, and more Republicans (with greater enthusiasm) this is supposed to add up to an Obama win how? I simply do not see it happening, no matter what A_Polling_Group_03 publishes.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (r4wIV)

202 152

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (lEcZh)

203 197 WF,

and again who the fuck is Mr. ferguson?

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (LRFds)

204 Even Bret Baier" Is Pres Obama pulling away?".MAKE IT STOP!

Posted by: steevy at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (6o4Fb)

205 "I used my seaman to write "Fore More Years!" across my Obama HOPE poster."


As a total aside, there's a place not far from me called The Seaman's Inn.

It never fails to give my wife and me a chuckle when we drive by.

Posted by: Wyatt's Torch at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (zxrQh)

206
Kevin in ABQ: "...DRI is D+9.6. D/R/I percentages are 44/34/21."


Kevin which poll is that a breakdown of CNN? Again just ridiculous.

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 06:57 PM (HDcKc)

207 @133 -

I had JUST finished running the calculation and refreshed this page to post it myself. Same breakdown I got.

Nicely done.

This is expecting us to believe in a D increase over 2008 and a huge dropoff of I's since then as well.

Not buying it. I got burned making predictions in 2008 so I'm cautious about discounting polls, but the things that are controlling this race still greatly favor Romney.

Posted by: arcangel at September 10, 2012 06:58 PM (/NCJW)

208 201 CT,

hush we are supposed to be quivering with fear because every dead person in NA trends D with amazing regularity

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 06:58 PM (LRFds)

209 For some strange reason 0bama just doubled his resources in New Mexico. NEW MEXICO!!!

I think R2 can take Michigan, Oregon, and yes Washington.

Posted by: jukin at September 10, 2012 06:58 PM (5oKRH)

210 153

He can and will win the debates in an objective sense. Yeah, the Media will probably try to pump the "Obama won the debates" meme as hard as possible. But people who still really trust the Media probably vote DemOcrat anyways.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 06:59 PM (lEcZh)

211 hush we are supposed to be quivering with fear because every dead person in NA trends D with amazing regularity

---

Also every brain DEAD person.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at September 10, 2012 06:59 PM (aHR5E)

212 210 MUMR,

I suspect the idiocy will reach Bush v Gore debate 2 levels...

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:00 PM (LRFds)

213 RoyalOil: "I mean, the sheer number of sources ALL saying the same thing over the weekend was and remains amazing."

You rang?

Posted by: JournoList 2.0 at September 10, 2012 07:00 PM (eHIJJ)

214 No Republican wins Oregon, period. Put that out of your mind. No matter how the votes turn out, the Democrat wins Oregon. Chisel that in stone and put it by your computer, it will not change until we get rid of vote by mail here.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 07:00 PM (r4wIV)

215
Romney better have this answer down for the debates.
Answer to each and every question about abortion and rape.

"MOST TAX PAYERS DO NOT WANT TO PAY FOR ABORTION."
and end it. no more. that's it.next question.

Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 07:00 PM (O7ksG)

216 I used to be concerned a lot about polls until I started reading Hot Air soon after it launched and watched Ed Morrisey break down poll internals.

What he demonstrated - and does a masterful job of continuing to demonstrate - is how slanted most of these polls are. They oversample Democrats and they ask leading questions.

I've know for years polling groups - especially those in the MSM such as ABC News, WaPo, NYT's, CBS, etc. use their polls now to make news, try to shape perceptions and drive an agenda.

But Morrisey will break down the poll internals in an understandable way and show you how the polling orgs fix the game right from the start with the double fix of

1. polling more Democrats than Republicans above the national party ID percentages and

2. adding to the skew with the way they weight the sample.

Leave us not forget, gentleman, that Pew Research started off August by releasing a poll with a +19 adv. to Democrats in the sample that found Obama had a whopping 10 pt lead on Romney.

Yes.

That actually happened. Ace linked it here.

Most of the time they are not THAT overt about what they are doing. But for that Pew poll someone crunching the #'s obviously decided to do whatever it took to get Obama a double-digit lead on Romney, wanting to set a tone that Obama was pulling away.

Most polls I've looked at the past month are giving the usual 6-9pt adv to Dem's in the sample. This means even with a skew like that they can't get Obama above a tie or even keep him in the lead.

Let's not also forget that Dem enthusiasm is way down. But these polls suggest an alternate universe in which Dem turnout is going to increase over the +7pt adv. Dems had in 2008.

It's like 2010 never happened or something.

Pollsters cooking the #'s to get the results they want and being forced to cook the #'s to an even more absurd degree - this is what we can look forward to the next 2 months.

We may even see a pollster top that 19pt Dem adv in the sample that Pew set on Aug. 2nd.

Posted by: drawandstrike at September 10, 2012 07:00 PM (uVLJc)

217 I remember telling people that McRino would win just because the Country would never elect an actual communist. Afterwards I realized that half the Country was too concerned with being hip and "progressive" with a small "p" to actually find out what the candidates were about. This time, however, people are hurting.....bad...and all the sites on the intertubes where it used to be "Death to McCain who is just Bush II" instead are all full of angry capitalists. Also Romney has been practicing debates for 6 years while Obarry thinks he can just smoke a blunt and show up. Yeah money and Super PACs matter and so do the debates. Remember Kennedy v Nixon? Kennedy looked like a rock star and charmed independents.

Posted by: Daybrother at September 10, 2012 07:01 PM (1FkrP)

218 Uhh, Ace, I think you may be a bit off on the intended message.

"Gore doesn't just have the lead. On each underlying factor, he has the upside as well."

So Romney, who has the upside on underlying factors, is in a similar position to Gore in 2000? And even Gore was at least in the lead with polling with that upside, and still lost?

I think this more than anything else displayed on the site at this moment hurt my optimism for Romney's chances.

Posted by: SOCR at September 10, 2012 07:01 PM (RTNve)

219
Sven...that is right....It is interesting because the Swing State Poll is the most important...and Obama only received a ONE POINT bounce after all the hoopla of Bill Clinton and the DNC. Yet many people are not looking at it. This is the poll that matters.

46/45 Obama in 11 swing states? that is terrible for Obama after the BIG DNC....notice that is not talked about on FOX, NBC, ABC, CBS, CNN or any others....just that top line number....

Brett Baier is doing what would be expected remember he was off on the weekend....they are all carrying the narrative....LOL!! So predictable....

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 07:01 PM (HDcKc)

220 Ya it's such a weird, what's the word, "coincidence" that after a poll showing a post-convention bump for OBama, that the whole entire journalistic world typed the same words. "Obama leads. It's over."

It's almost like they coordinated it or something. But I'm sure they wouldn't do that. I mean, they didn't do it after the Romney bump, so I have to assume this duplicated and triplicated message now is just one of those crazy flukes.

Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 07:01 PM (P6QsQ)

221 Did Average Jon give up already?

What a piss-poor excuse for a Gerg.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at September 10, 2012 07:01 PM (aHR5E)

222 216 drawandstreak,


I particularly like their push polling on foeign policy this last round, "who is more responsible for the death of OBL Choom or Mitt?"

um....how about ST6?

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:02 PM (LRFds)

223 I mean, the sheer number of sources ALL saying the same thing over the weekend was and remains amazing

Yeah, because there certainly hasn't been any collusion between the media and the DNC.

Uh huh.

Axelrod must be losing his touch, and Nate Silver still wants to get paid.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at September 10, 2012 07:02 PM (ZGmwP)

224 For some strange reason 0bama just doubled his resources in New Mexico. NEW MEXICO!!!

Isn't Santa-Fe like the Berkeley of the high desert? He shouldn't need to spend a dime to take NM.

Posted by: @PurpAv at September 10, 2012 07:02 PM (uKnGb)

225 the national polls are meaningless as someone above mentioned. R/R would be whupping ass in a poll where calls were made to OK, MS, the Republic of TX, UT.

mama winger: you go girl. i'm with you all the way!

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 07:03 PM (p3a8+)

226 Holy shit, there's football on.

Summon the cheerleaders!

Posted by: Waterhouse at September 10, 2012 07:03 PM (6aKfz)

227 168

Stewart, is that you?

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:03 PM (lEcZh)

228 Yes I read as well Obama is doubling resources in New Mexico as well....New poll only has him up 5 there...down from 10 I think....His lead is falling in New Mexico....hmmm.

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 07:04 PM (HDcKc)

229 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/historic-demise-ever-shrinking-dollar-infographic

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:04 PM (LRFds)

230 And what the heck was that question over the weekend in the PPP Poll? The one that asked "Who do you credit more with killing Bin Laden? Barack Obama? or Mitt Romney?"





I mean, what the heck??

Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 07:05 PM (P6QsQ)

231 228 Blue,

nah no no he just like eneteraining the Enchanted folk...

like i said last month watch what he does not he says or the media

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:05 PM (LRFds)

232 let's just look at swing state polls from here on.

all you from Red States ( any refugees from Blue States) please visit a relative, friend or fellow Moron in swing state to start helping out.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 07:05 PM (p3a8+)

233 "Everyone is saying that all the polls are showing similar bounces, but almost all the damn polls are oversampling democrats by a margin of 5-8 percentage points. "

Rasmussen has Obama up by five points and his sample is GOP +1 and is likely voters. And he's showing the same lead as everyone else. You guys are delusional. They aren't ALL wrong.

Posted by: countdracula at September 10, 2012 07:06 PM (/5cf7)

234 230 mama Winger,

quite...

they are in mad dash mode...

I think Mitt may just be seeing how batshit crazy they are going to go

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:06 PM (LRFds)

235 I remember telling people that McRino would win just because the Country would never elect an actual communist.

The Soviets won the cold war on the psyops/propaganda front. They got us to destroy ourselves. Had they lasted long enough to enjoy the win, it would have been glorious with medals for everyone involved in the effort.

Posted by: @PurpAv at September 10, 2012 07:06 PM (uKnGb)

236 Obama is one and done. People want this nightmare over. The SCOAMF is blanketing the airways but I see zero enthusiasm for Comrade Zero. Despite Clinton lying his ass off, the economy still sucks. Gas jumped from $3.66/gal to $3.99/gal literally overnight!

Posted by: Retired Buckeye Cop at September 10, 2012 07:06 PM (xFgmp)

237 233 Count Dragqueen,

Ras also has Choom up one trending down in swings...

but do go on sparky...

MATH! motherfucker

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:06 PM (LRFds)

238 174

This.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:07 PM (lEcZh)

239 Thanks Sven!

Oh, and btw. . . are any of you guys on Tumblr? I know it's geared more to the younguns, and fans of the One Direction and the Bieber and thus scares sensible people, ie you guys, away. BUT, there has been a huge surge of kids there coming out of the closet and admitting they are republicans, or at least don't plan to vote Obama. A growing hum of people going screw it you guys, I don't care who unfollows me, I'm announcing I'm voting Romney, deal with it Very cool. Twitter has been coopted by conservatives and libertarians, it looks like; I don't know if Tumblr will ever be the same way, it's like 85% rabid lib, but there are a bunch of us trying to light candles to stave off the darkness over there. If any of you join let me know, I'd love to follow you and see some sense knocked into people.

Posted by: LizLem at September 10, 2012 07:07 PM (8wqqE)

240 While the 'experts' think this is all about suppressing republican turnout, I think it is about reducing the bottom falling out of democrat enthusiasm.

Their convention was a disaster, August's job report a disaster, the economy is a disaster. The democrat faithful know this. The Obamabots do not. All this is to keep sane democrats in the fold and voting D.

It will not work.

Posted by: jukin at September 10, 2012 07:07 PM (5oKRH)

241 Holy shit, there's football on.Summon the cheerleaders!

Double header, too.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at September 10, 2012 07:07 PM (d0Tfm)

242 Like Rush said today....the RNC was horrible...terrible Mitt received not one point bounce...AMAZINGLY the DNC...oh outstanding, fabulous, game changer and Obama bounced to the Moon...and SEE WE HAVE OUR POLLS TO PROVE IT...Rush was like yeah right! Just a little too convenient would you say?

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 07:07 PM (HDcKc)

243 Winning winning winning LALALALALALALA I can't hear you LALALALALALALA winning winning winning LALALALALALA

Posted by: countsuckula (New Gerg) at September 10, 2012 07:07 PM (aHR5E)

244
I think R2 can take Michigan, Oregon, and yes Washington.
Posted by: jukin




The Republicans haven't won Michigan since 1988. Oregon or Washington since 1984.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at September 10, 2012 07:08 PM (kdS6q)

245 236 RBC,

You ain't seen nothing yet....if Helicopter Ben launches QE3 and prices go up as they must Romney says "I am auditing the Fed on entry into office but I need a GOP house and senate to do it" and watch the fun.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:08 PM (LRFds)

246 @bluerose75 yep, that's the percentage breakdown, or my best estimate. I'll let CAC confirm/refute.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at September 10, 2012 07:08 PM (XrGnJ)

247 179

Some things are their own reward.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:08 PM (lEcZh)

248 Delusion! Delusion! You wright wingers are falling into confusion!

Posted by: countdraculasuckscockbychoice at September 10, 2012 07:09 PM (/YJYi)

249 Rasmussen has Obama up by five points and his sample is GOP +1 and is likely voters

Right, he got a temporary bounce after the convention, as was expected. I think you have the poll too high though, I saw 2 points from Rasmussen, not 5.

It won't last. GOP +1 is probably the most reasonable spread though, if not a few more.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 07:09 PM (r4wIV)

250 249 belial,

it all breaks down to zones that are called, I also notice you omit that Choom has a +1 in swingers polling....

and trending down....

keep on plugging buddy

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:10 PM (LRFds)

251 The media is in the tank for their boyfriend. They can't be trusted.

As for the polls, who is going to say, "I'm a racist and will not vote for Obama?" People lie to polls.

There is a reason voting is done anonymously.

Clinton = Kennedy (couldn't keep pants zipped)
Bush = Nixon (press hated both)
Obama = Carter (malaise, said with an effete southern accent)

So what does that leave us with....

Romney = Reagan

/saying prayers...

Posted by: shibumi at September 10, 2012 07:10 PM (z63Tr)

252 Ya it's such a weird, what's the word, "coincidence" that after a poll showing a post-convention bump for OBama, that the whole entire journalistic world typed the same words. "Obama leads. It's over."It's almost like they coordinated it or something. But I'm sure they wouldn't do that. I mean, they didn't do it after the Romney bump, so I have to assume this duplicated and triplicated message now is just one of those crazy flukes.
Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 07:01 PM (P6QsQ)

Not enough blood in the water yet. The media needs more before they will begin feeding. They are trying to push it off.

Posted by: The Jackhole at September 10, 2012 07:11 PM (nTgAI)

253 Obama's winning and I'm totally not saying that because I'm trying to convince myself. What, 2010? Never heard of it.

Posted by: countsuckula (New Gerg) at September 10, 2012 07:11 PM (aHR5E)

254 I saw a poll! Game over!

Posted by: jwpaine at September 10, 2012 07:11 PM (FUozQ)

255
Geez, I'm glad your daytime is our night-time. I go to sleep and miss all the nervous whinging and angsting.....

Ras and Gallup look to have peaked at O+5 and O's favourables have started receeding from their "OMFG +10!!" peak. So this is it folks, the best it's gonna get for Obama.

Theswing state polls aren't showing anywhere near the same bounce as the national polls.Even PPP, throwing everything into Ohio and NC, couldn't generate a bounce....

Romney is still leading among Indies and Undecideds.

So, wow, whoopee doo. Obama got a, what, 4-5% bounce nationally, mostly in his own safe states,that looks like it's petering out after less than a week, and which even Dems admit was due to Clinton anyway.

I can live with that.

Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 10, 2012 07:11 PM (EwxYH)

256 184

I don't know. I think desensitizing people to polls (and how they tend to fluctuate, and not be all that reliable anyways) might be a better strategy.


Otherwise, you're going to end up with all sorts of emoism.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:12 PM (lEcZh)

257 Part of it is an attempt to gin up enthusiasm in the press too. Around the RNC they were pretty depressed and moping, you could sense the tone in their reporting and the articles about the election. I expect to see that tone return by the end of September.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 07:12 PM (r4wIV)

258 Someone today, maybe it was Rush, said that Portman is a brilliant pick to stand in as Obama for Romney's debate prep. He will def help Romney school Obama next month. Can someone explain to me WHY that is? I thought he was the boring, milquetoast one? IS he secretly a demon in debates and I just am not aware of this?

Posted by: LizLem at September 10, 2012 07:12 PM (8wqqE)

259 Contusion, contusion. It looks like you hit your head.

Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 07:12 PM (a4CUi)

260 The Soviets won the cold war on the psyops/propaganda front. They got us to destroy ourselves. Had they lasted long enough to enjoy the win, it would have been glorious with medals for everyone involved in the effort.

A big part of that win was getting the useful idiots here to deny what they said openly that they would do to us. Everbody should take a look at their stated goals (read into the Congresional Record in'64) and take a look around today to see just how much of it was accomplished.

But have a good stiff drink first.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at September 10, 2012 07:13 PM (d0Tfm)

261
Count...Get a New Cereal....His bounce dropped from 3 to 1 on Ras and will taper off the weekend now and that the DNC is over....check Thursday!

Conveniently you must be blind because the same release has the SWING STATE POLL for today: Obama gained one point Count...one point...that is after all the DNC and your magical bounce! He started before the conventionn at 45 percent on the Ras Swing State Poll.....today he is at 46...so save me the rubbish with the other polls...Swing States are where it is at!! And your man picked up one point and over the weekend...and all the polls you mention oversampled Dems and were on the weekend just after the DNC....even Ras undersamples conservatives on weekends Count....go check his weekend history...Obama gains Sat-Mon....

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 07:13 PM (HDcKc)

262 "The Republicans haven't won Michigan since 1988. Oregon or Washington since 1984."

Michigan now has a Republican governor.
Plus both upper and lower houses are controlled by the Republicans here.

Just saying.

Posted by: shibumi at September 10, 2012 07:14 PM (z63Tr)

263
Ras has obama up 5 over romney and at the 50% mark.

The democrat lie machine is powerful. I gues no one cares about he debt or that we will face a full on recession with 4 more years of obozo.

Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 07:14 PM (O7ksG)

264 135
124 RO,

if you mean is there any tracking showing the partisan
split D+4...no none at all Ras is the only one to track it and release
the method and they say R+4...

"we'll see"

2010 was D+2 tops
=============
2008, every single thing was in the Dems favor, and they pulled a +8. I mean, for hell's sake, the financial crisis, McCain, historic black president, 8 years of non-stop Bush/GOP bashing, outspent the GOP by how many tens of millions and on and on. And the best they could pull was a +8.

And yet. That's the one they think is the "normal." Even though 2010 was R+2. What? In 4 years of the JEF, they've won one, two special elections? Low-turnout specials that strongly favor the Dems and they have won nothing since then?

Recall, as Baron (I believe) says: Every Presidential Election has tracked within 2% of the previous midterm. We won 2010 by, how much?

Posted by: RoyalOil at September 10, 2012 07:14 PM (imtbm)

265 I'm not listening! Winning! Winning, I say!

POOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOLLS!!!1!1!11!1!11!1!11!!!1!!111!1!1!1!1!1!11!

Posted by: countsuckula (New Gerg) at September 10, 2012 07:15 PM (aHR5E)

266 191

That's true. If people hear the same thing over and over, especially repeated from many different sources, they tend to become "convinced."

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:15 PM (lEcZh)

267 Thanks Kevin!

Posted by: bluerose75 at September 10, 2012 07:15 PM (HDcKc)

268 Vlady...you don't mind if I call you Vlad right?...Vlady baby sure the polls concern me a little but just a little. Doesn't mean freedom is going to lose out and your side win. We'll see. I'm just not going to get emotionally wrapped up in a close polling race well ahead of the debates. You go ahead and take your win to the bank though. No more need to campaign, you trolls can go back to your bridges or basements or where ever it is you "live". No more need for you anymore.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Regular! With Full Stomping Power! at September 10, 2012 07:16 PM (0q2P7)

269 The person who should be concerned is Jarrett. Unless they have a special bud to put in Barky's ear with pre-screened answers, without a teleprompter and his jokes I do not see how he is going to not uh, uh, uh spaz out during the debates. Is he studying and learnin' stuff? Now, we know the media will serve him Nerf balls so he will look brilliant and articulate and clean. I hope Mitt comes armed and ready, and I think he will. Mitt strikes me as the guy who always knew the answer in class and is prepared and likes competition. Barry? He knew who would sell him some weed in the class. Does that count?

The VP debate, Ace, should be live blogged. Unless they have put the same chip in Joe Bidenopoulous' noggin with pre-screened questions and answers, Ryan will wipe the floor with him while looking boyish. I guess ole Joe will trump that he has national security experience, which has served them so well these last four years. Otherwise all I imagine is a Halloween set of false teeth chattering at the podium.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned , ready to get this done at September 10, 2012 07:18 PM (baL2B)

270 or that we will face a full on recession with 4 more years of obozo.

That's the wildly optimistic best of the best case scenarios. Reality is more like collapse, destruction, and dissolution of the nation. The collapse of the Soviet Union will look quick and tidy by comparison.

Posted by: @PurpAv at September 10, 2012 07:18 PM (uKnGb)

271 If Romney wins independents by 14 he wins in a landslide. The DR split will be equal or within 2. If Romney wins independents by 4 it's over for Obama.

Posted by: JBS at September 10, 2012 07:18 PM (lZE/o)

272 Jeopardy is repeating the episode with Tingles the Clown and that Tom Arnold-looking lying sack of shit Gibbs. Needless to say, I'm watching something else.

Posted by: mediumheadboy at September 10, 2012 07:18 PM (aHR5E)

273 193

There's a reason voting is private, and it's precisely because people like Leftists try to intimidate and shame people into doing what they want them to do. Polls are "public voting," so all the shame and intimidation have their say. Leftists then call this the "Bradley effect" and use it to demonize the people they intimidated and shamed into shutting up, because they love Freedom.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:18 PM (lEcZh)

274 I could see maybe Romney winning Washington State, but not Oregon EVER, and I doubt Michigan seriously.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 07:18 PM (r4wIV)

275 yeah, I don't see Portman as the best debater--one that will make Mitt stay on his toes deliver great/quippy oratorical comebacks.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 07:19 PM (p3a8+)

276 199

Obama has almost managed to cut the economy in half. FOUR MORE YEARS! (and he'll get 'er done.)

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:20 PM (lEcZh)

277 264 the range us D+2 to R+2 in theory....

but yeah....

eaxctly

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:20 PM (LRFds)

278 I think we'll have a better idea in a couple of weeks. If Obama still has the same lead or greater, I'll be officially pessimistic of our chances. For the record, I do think polling almost always favors Democrats, but I think it's more along the lines of 2-3 points, not 5-6 points.

But these things swing "hard" at the very end for the economic reality on the ground. That's how it's been in every election in my lifetime. If the economy is good, they get reelected, if it's bad, they're tossed on the street, usually by a wide margin, and this is the worst economy I've seen in my lifetime.

But for those that think the election is truly over, my next question is, what do you think the margin will be? If Obama wins, it would truly have to be a "skin of his teeth" win, like something we experienced in 2000 where it comes down to a single state.


Posted by: Victor at September 10, 2012 07:20 PM (0kf1G)

279 If people hear the same thing over and over, especially repeated from many different sources, they tend to become "convinced."

Exactly, that's how the public became sure the Iraq war was a huge quagmire mistake and Afghanistan cannot ever be won. But it took years to pound it into people's brains, and the press doesn't have years.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 07:20 PM (r4wIV)

280 Barry? He knew who would sell him he could bum some weed off of in the class.

FTFY

Posted by: buzzion at September 10, 2012 07:20 PM (GULKT)

281 um...

Well, let me just.....a little SuperGlue and we can reattach your....uh, ear.

There!

A little crooked....but that gives your face...character...........yeah...

And...uhm that black eye should go away....soon....

.....sorry.....I, uh....I, uh, just panicked....

Posted by: The Aftermath of naturalfake going Full Retard Strength Early at September 10, 2012 07:21 PM (G9qZk)

282 Barky doesn't have time to prepare for his debates cause he is so busy meeting with his jobs council or preparing his list of sequestration cuts.

oh

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 07:21 PM (p3a8+)

283
Oops, forgot to close the strikethrough.

Posted by: buzzion at September 10, 2012 07:21 PM (GULKT)

284 Actually, I think R^2 has a real shot at MI. Their gov't is GOP and Rom's dad seems to be pretty well liked in memory. Also, he's got a good ground game there and he's making a serious play with ad buys.

I'd be more shocked if he snagged WA. That Patty Murray victory was pretty telling to me. WA is now afflicted with the same disease that killed OR: California leprosy.

Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 07:22 PM (a4CUi)

285 did you hear today that Barky is meeting with his national security (that would be OUR national security) team only half as much as usual.

cause Barky already knows every damn thing.

he killed OBL after all

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 07:23 PM (p3a8+)

286 many thanks to the MORONS for letting me vent.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at September 10, 2012 07:23 PM (p3a8+)

287 Oregon has always had a pretty much 50/50 divide of red and blue as it were: Eugene and Portland vs the rest of the state. The big shift came when the idiots in the electorate voted for the mail vote in all elections. There are no more poll booths.

Now Democrats always win.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 07:23 PM (r4wIV)

288
@274

Wasn't Oregon like 10,000 votes away from flipping to Bush in 2000 or 2004?
It (and Michigan) would fall before Washington state, surely?

Posted by: AussieMarcus at September 10, 2012 07:24 PM (EwxYH)

289

....if Helicopter Ben launches QE3 and prices go up

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:08 PM (LRFds)


Gold spot will move to $2200-2400/oz?

Posted by: Dr Fish, TDY to SAT for ill mom at September 10, 2012 07:28 PM (ndqJC)

290 As for the polls, who is going to say, "I'm a racist and will not vote for Obama?" People lie to polls. Posted by: shibumi at September 10, 2012 07:10 PM (z63Tr)

Exactly, we have been beaten into submission about saying we do not like a particular Black person. Jeez, even when Mike Tyson was being convicted of rape and battery of a nice Black girl, people still went around yammering, "I like Mike!"

I think people are saying out loud, "Oh yes, the Obamas are lovely people. Look at those two darling daughters!"

What they are thinking is, "I lost my job, my house, my 401(k), and that big, ugly, angry bitch gets to sashay around in designer clothes while sending those brats to the most exclusive and private school in DC? Hell, my wife shops for all of us at Good Will and I can't even take my kids to MickeyD's. I am sick of the Obamas."

Posted by: Will be taking applications & buying love slaves nice things using oil stock dividends after R/R win at September 10, 2012 07:30 PM (kXoT0)

291 287

There is that. Although I have no doubt the twenty years of outbound waves of California liberals contaminated cities like Ashland, Roseburg and all the rest of the "quaint" little OR towns, as well as swelling the greater Portland area with California leftards like a bloated tick.

I watched that wave happen. Grew up 250 miles North of Sac. Back in the 70's there wasn't a leftard within 200 miles. When they moved up there and killed off the timber industry and ag/livestock with EPA idiocy, the fuckheads who did that move further North to wreck Oregon, making way for a wave in illegals in NorCal.

This trend has continued for a very long time. The California parasites have reached Idaho in the last 5 years, creating outposts around places like Boise and Sandpoint. Seems unlikely they'll completely wreck Idaho, as the weather and terrain is too harsh for most of those pussies, but they are definitely there.

I've been calling it California leprosy for a long time. It killed my home state and continues to spread....

Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 07:32 PM (a4CUi)

292 I've never totally understood either the pants wetting or the everything is just fine talk that happens every time bad polling data comes. What exactly is it that you are going to do differently if is +5 or -5? Maybe you donate more when you're a little bit scared actually.

I thought the convention was a joke, other than Clinton, who was dangerously dishonest. I am surprised they apparently got a bounce, but so what? Voters are influenced by the stupidest of things. People talk like everyone is as locked in as ever, but we have a bunch of short attention span independents out there that are swayed by whoever makes the last argument.

We start a deluge of ads, and they call it a bounce for a reason. Either way, our play is to press on to the end no matter what. Donate, volunteer, and vote.

Posted by: Dave S. at September 10, 2012 07:33 PM (tWrwm)

293 290.

I agree to a certain extent about the Bradley Effect, but I also heard the same thing in 2008.

Then again, Gallup's last poll had Obama up by something like 11 points in 2008 over McCain.

Posted by: Victor at September 10, 2012 07:33 PM (0kf1G)

294
vote by mail fraud. As soon as dems find the fraud hole - they take it.

Posted by: Fresh at September 10, 2012 07:35 PM (O7ksG)

295 LizLem -


I'm on Tumblr. Mostly for art stuff. I didn't realize there was a growing political voice starting up there. I'd be happy to follow you. I'm cowboyannie on Tumblr.

Posted by: mama winger in paul ryan's district at September 10, 2012 07:37 PM (P6QsQ)

296
as well as swelling the greater Portland area with California leftards like a bloated tick.

Wasn't Portland always pretty liberal? I had the impression it was a rainier version of Berkeley.

The question is where the leftards here in CA came from. They're not home-grown; they mostly came from liberal hellholes that they helped to create, then fled.

A liberal friend of mine, on hearing that we were thinking of fleeing from the People's Republic to AZ, said he and his wife were thinking of doing the same thing, which pissed me off. Why should he leave? The weather is still great, and all the liberal shit he voted for has come to pass, but now he doesn't want to live it. And, of course, once he moves somewhere else, he'll voted for retarded liberal shit there, and fuck THAT place up.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 07:37 PM (oX7vY)

297 289 Dr fish,

Zero hedge says the stock market realized it has already baked QE3 into the cake....

"we'll see"

Posted by: sven10077 at September 10, 2012 07:41 PM (LRFds)

298 Oh, and another reason I don't believe these numbers is because of the wins we've had ever since 11/08. We won the governorships in VA and NJ in '09, we rocked in '10, we won again in WI just this past June. The sentiment that started in '09 is still alive and well now. Nothing has changed for the better for Dems, in fact, things have gotten worse (joblessness, economy).

We, meaning the AMERICAN people are not that in love with getting freebies. If we were, We wouldn't have won the elections above and O would've enjoyed 50+% all this time. He's been underwater in approval for months before all of a sudden he isn't anymore.

I call BS. But, we need to play like they're real in order to stop people from believing these bogus polls.

Posted by: Aslan's Girl at September 10, 2012 07:45 PM (KL49F)

299 The IBD had Romney up today and the Gallup unskewed poll had Romney up 5. Karl Rove was on Hannity's radio show and wasn't alarmed at all. He had Romney still up in swing states, and said Obama may have his West and East Coast base inspired, but hardly anyone else.

Posted by: conservativechick at September 10, 2012 07:47 PM (8GQ/G)

300 296 Wasn't Portland always pretty liberal?


====


Yes. Only now the outer belt has been assimilated too. Places like Beaverton, Tualatin, Gresham, all the way out to the Dalles. That is now a giant lib stronghold, where the libs used to be concentrated in the city.

And oh there are plenty of home-grown leftards in CA. They all come from the money areas. The real problem, though, is that every fucking leftard on the planet, not kidding, always viewed CA as their dream-land. It's been attracting leftards like a magnet since the sixties.

Those have always been the worst of them. They move in with idiotic utopian world-views, stick around long enough to wreck the place and then leave for greener pastures. I hate them all. With the fire of a thousands suns.

Moved to the South over twenty years ago now and love it here. But I'll never forget those assholes ran me out of my own home and then left themselves after they wrecked it.

Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 07:48 PM (a4CUi)

301 Six generations of California heritage, btw. Sometimes I make jokes about the old TV show Big Valley.

That's how I grew up. A modern version of it anyway. Now Stockton is a fucking cess pit and you can't even walk around in Sacramento at night. Pathetic.

Posted by: IdowhatIwant at September 10, 2012 07:51 PM (a4CUi)

302 I'm glad to hear we're not going with denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance. Not for us the ways of lesser men.

No, for us it's Victory . . . or Full, 100% Retard Strength.

Posted by: edj at September 10, 2012 07:52 PM (+QKfp)

303
The real problem, though, is that every fucking leftard on the planet, not kidding, always viewed CA as their dream-land. It's been attracting leftards like a magnet since the sixties.

Yep. It infuriates me, too.


They move in with idiotic utopian world-views, stick around long enough to wreck the place and then leave for greener pastures. I hate them all. With the fire of a thousands suns.

You like them compared to me. They moved here,fucked up my beloved California, and now are starting to move to the few places that they haven't fucked up yet.

It wouldn't be so bad if they moved, but the problem is that once they've trashed a place, it never recovers.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 07:54 PM (oX7vY)

304 279

People are also fickle, panicky herd animals. You just have to panic/herd them in the right direction, and the Media is trying its hardest.

Posted by: Mirror-Universe Mitt Romney at September 10, 2012 07:54 PM (lEcZh)

305 I was at a business lunch a while ago where everyone else was a chi-chi earnest liberal. I bit my tongue. Then it came out that every fucking one of the people there - apart from me - had moved to CA in the last five or ten years, all from liberal hellholes. Which they are determined to recreate here.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 07:56 PM (oX7vY)

306 #299 "Obama may have his West and East Coast base inspired, but hardly anyone else."

============

That makes sense: blue people in blue states are extra fired up. But there aren't any more electoral college votes to be squeezed out of California.

Posted by: edj at September 10, 2012 07:56 PM (+QKfp)

307 Polls dont count til november otherwise we would have had a President Dukakis

Posted by: wynfred at September 10, 2012 07:57 PM (xqdQZ)

308 You know, everyone is crediting Clinton with the Dem bounce. Wouldn't it be wild to encourage dems to write in Billy boy for President. I wonder how many dem voters would actually fall for it.

Posted by: rabidfox at September 10, 2012 07:57 PM (5sEuZ)

309
But there aren't any more electoral college votes to be squeezed out of California.

Don't rub it in.

Posted by: Jay Guevara at September 10, 2012 07:58 PM (oX7vY)

310 Can someone explain why the CNN poll is at all alarming? So the Ds polled preferred O and the Rs preferred RR. So what? Is that supposed to be surprising? But the Independents, all 37 of them, went overwhelmingly for RR. If anything O should be the one scared of this result because if he loses independents by anywhere close to 14 points he's toast.

Posted by: JBS at September 10, 2012 07:58 PM (lZE/o)

311 From Bill Whittle after the 2008 election: So consider this, my fellows in arms: On Tuesday, the Left — armed with
the most attractive, eloquent, young, hip, and charismatic candidate I
have seen with my adult eyes, a candidate shielded by a media so overtly
that it can never be such a shield again, who appeared after eight
years of a historically unpopular President, in the midst of two
undefended wars and at the time of the worst financial crisis since the
Depression and whose praises were sung by every movie, television, and
musical icon without pause or challenge for 20 months . . .who ran
against the oldest nominee in the country’s history, against a campaign
rent with internal disarray and determined not to attack in the one area
where attack could have succeeded, and who was out-spent no less than
seven-to-one in a cycle where not a single debate question was
unfavorable to his opponent — that historic victory, that perfect storm
of opportunity . . .

Yielded a result of 53 percent.

Folks, we are going to lick these people out of their boots.

Posted by: LTC Graham at September 10, 2012 07:59 PM (SwEjg)

312 I don't think they are all that fired up, either. The Democrats are doing their best to scream and holler and throw things around to get them excited but its not really doing much and whatever excitement they got out of seeing that old reprobate Clinton talk again isn't lasting.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 08:05 PM (r4wIV)

313 290
As for the polls, who is going to say, "I'm a racist and will not vote
for Obama?" People lie to polls. Posted by: shibumi at September 10,
2012 07:10 PM (z63Tr)

Me, myself, and I.

I don't care what people think of my reasons. It could be that annoying mole on his greenish face. It could be the way he jogs, all stiff-wristed up to the podium and steps of Air Force One I think, but am not sure, his message is this: I have energy! I am vibrant! In reality it emphasizes his spaz). It could be the way The Won does a fake salute to Marines. It could be the way Navy SEALS have been treated. It could be his constant yapping about killing Bin Laden. It could be his gummy grin, or his ssssszzzzz speech impediment. It could be his love of iReggie. It could be due to the flatworm eating what is left of his drug-addled brain. It could be his dissing of Jews. It could be his fake boots after the oil spill, or his bowing, or his ham-handed wife pawing at Queen Elizabeth. It could be his shoes on the Resolute desk. It could be due to him being pigeon-toed and having smoker's breath and stinky feet (per his "wife"). It could be due to his stupid books and rampant terminal narcissism. I just don't like him or his socialism. If that makes me racist, then too bad. I will not repent. Resist me much.

Posted by: ChristyBlinky, unbanned , ready to get this done at September 10, 2012 08:08 PM (baL2B)

314 I've said this before and I will repeat myself: Romney wants to win.
You wouldn't start selling Christmas trees in October, would you? I could be wrong, but I suspect Romney will jab and duck for another few weeks, and after the first debate, the heavy artillery comes out.

oh, and just noticed this on Gateway Pundit:

A Maryland Democratic candidate quit her congressional race Monday after
her own party told state officials that she had committed fraud by
voting in both Maryland and Florida in recent elections.

(I am shocked...)

Posted by: mallfly at September 10, 2012 08:10 PM (bJm7W)

315 A Maryland Democratic candidate quit her congressional race Monday after her own party told state officials that she had committed fraud by
voting in both Maryland and Florida in recent elections.


That's okay they'll just replace her with someone else no matter what the law says.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at September 10, 2012 08:14 PM (r4wIV)

316 @61 - "
I order the WH chef to make toast, then I throw it over the fence to you starving peasants."

uuuuuuh...make what now?

Posted by: Chariots of Toast at September 10, 2012 08:17 PM (eNURf)

317 Only one poll you need to know...

60 percent of people do not trust obumbles on the economy.
And that is how this stoopid election is going to end.

Romney wins with 56-58 percent, and Obumbles is gone.

Posted by: Courtesy Flush at September 10, 2012 08:28 PM (9mDAJ)

318 Uh, George W. lost the popular vote to a Cigar Store Indian by 500,000 votes, and if the Broward and Palm Beach County Fraudsters hadn't been asleep at the switch when they were supposed to be punching Gore Chads, Gore would have stolen Florida.

Try not to cite Bush Cheney 2000 as ANYTHING to be fucking proud of. Karl Rove fucked that camel, not any Reagan Conservative. Karl stopped polling ten days before the election and sent millions of dollars to California in a complete waste of fucking time that should have gone to Florida. I lived in Broward County at that time, and we didn't get a fucking dime from National until late September.

Junior must have thought that Baby Brother could just pull his home state out of his ass.

It's worth noting that the same Bushtard clowns that screwed up Florida and gave us the Recount Hell also gave us Meg Whitman's 175 million dollar loss to Jerry Brown, professional zombie, and are about ready to drive Mitt Romney into private life.

Posted by: section9 at September 10, 2012 08:36 PM (CUoon)

319 Well, Bush did lose the popular vote...and I note the commenter immediately above me said the same thing... I don't think the 2000 elections is what I would base my "don't believe the polls" argument on.

Posted by: Sgt. York at September 10, 2012 09:00 PM (Bm+GQ)

320 We'll see. I know already who I am voting for and against. So to me the polls are meaningless, my vote is already cast (so to speak).

Posted by: Mikey NTH - winding all down before jammie time at September 10, 2012 09:00 PM (gmoEG)

321 PS... this election, perhaps more than most in recent memory, will be all about the debates.

Posted by: Sgt. York at September 10, 2012 09:01 PM (Bm+GQ)

322 Hmmmm...notice how we are no longer hearing about SHOCK and AWE...they don't have it in them...whistling past the grave yard
Laura Ingraham nails it:
http://bit.ly/P8IP9M

Posted by: rukiddingme? at September 10, 2012 09:11 PM (MbeEN)

323 As for the polls, who is going to say, "I'm a racist and will not vote for Obama?" People lie to polls. Posted by: shibumi at September 10, 2012 07:10 PM (z63Tr) I'm not sure I buy that one. Why the heck would anybody care if an anonymous caller thinks they're racist? I've been working the phones for Romney and once (for about 3 weeks,due to desperation) I was a telemarketer. I can tell you, there is not much people are embarrassed to say over the phone.

Posted by: Donna V. at September 10, 2012 09:18 PM (9lzYO)

324
319
Agree. Bush v. Gore doesn't fill me with confidence.

There is a demographic trend here. The elephant in the room that is reluctantly mentioned, but true nonetheless. It is what it is. Republicans have to get in there with a majority in both houses and show their stuff, which is what they tragically didn't do under Bush.

Otherwise, game over.

Posted by: Reggie1971 at September 10, 2012 09:55 PM (Qbfba)

325 That explains why Bill Daley was concerned about baracka's campaign having enough lawyers to challenge in court; all the polling with baracka ahead, then a legal challenge to count hanging chads

Posted by: runner at September 10, 2012 10:26 PM (WR5xI)

326 That CNN poll is incredibly bad. Not only is the D/R/I split at 44/34/22, that's +10 Dems and 5% bigger Dem turnout than 2008, but blacks are 21% of the sample. They were 12% in 2008. And if it's true that only 37 Independents were polled, then their error margin is so large that the entire poll is nothing more than random noise skewed toward Dems.

Posted by: MrX at September 10, 2012 10:41 PM (ZsAO3)

327 I do not believe the likely voter polls showing obama ahead. They hide their partisan split. When they hide it like that, it means they oversampled or undersampled to get that outcome. That is all you need to remember.

Posted by: Hard Right at September 10, 2012 11:45 PM (VyDjT)






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Frequently Asked Questions
The (Almost) Complete Paul Anka Integrity Kick
Top Top Tens
Greatest Hitjobs

The Ace of Spades HQ Sex-for-Money Skankathon
A D&D Guide to the Democratic Candidates
Margaret Cho: Just Not Funny
More Margaret Cho Abuse
Margaret Cho: Still Not Funny
Iraqi Prisoner Claims He Was Raped... By Woman
Wonkette Announces "Morning Zoo" Format
John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
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