Pew uses D+19 sample,

I really thought a double-digit inflated edge would be the limit, but I had no clue someone would go for a number three times the 2008 margin.

Utterly shameful D/R/I of 43%-24%-32%, but it is all about the headline.
Independents still favor Romney in the poll, but with a result that lopsided the topline number was a foregone conclusion.

I'm sure if Rasmussen pushed a poll showing an R+10 electorate, the lulz would never cease. Pew? Total silence.

Okay then. When D+2 becomes the norm in mid-October, I say we switch out their smelling salts for the bath variety...

Posted by: CAC at 05:32 PM

Comments

1
peeeeee-u!

Posted by: soothsayer at August 02, 2012 05:34 PM (9Q7Nu)

2 It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these polls seriously.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (9x27O)

3 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (8BaAK)

4 Hey PEW. Got any openings? I think I'm a goof 'fit' IYKWIMAITYD

Posted by: Adam Smith (former CFO at Vante) at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (84pE9)

5
I don't know how accurate the Polls are right now.
But I think it's better for us....if they don't show Romney leading.
That way, people won't get complacent, and think that we've got this made in the shade.

Posted by: wheatie at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (mtRB0)

6 CAC,

I noticed they said they interviewed 500+ people that 'were not on landlines or cell phones.'

What the dicky-dick is that? I went to the methods link but nothing readily found on how they do that part of the survey.

Seems like a mighty big chance to shape the numbers.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (uCNam)

7
I think I broke a personal best record today of being first in 3 posts.

Where's my gold medal?

Posted by: soothsayer at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (9Q7Nu)

8 I can't beat that.

Posted by: J. Goebbels at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (MMC8r)

9 good, not goof

oooops

Posted by: Adam Smith (former CFO at Vante) at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (84pE9)

10 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable tyrant.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (8y9MW)

11 So the best Obama can do with a 19 point Dem advantage is a 10 point lead. LOL.

Posted by: farsighted at August 02, 2012 05:36 PM (Dx6XK)

12 they have to double down on the propaganda ever since Preazy went off TOTUS and came up with that YOU DIDN"T BUILD THAT gem. That's why Harry Reid is beclowning himself more than usual lately too.

Posted by: kallisto at August 02, 2012 05:36 PM (jm/9g)

13 D/R/I of 43%-24%-32% .... representative of a suburb of Boston.... maybe

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at August 02, 2012 05:36 PM (8BaAK)

14 So, if you skew the sample back, what does that do? Does it actually put Romney ahead?

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 02, 2012 05:36 PM (8y9MW)

15 But I think it's better for us....if they don't show Romney leading.

IIRC, Reagan did not lead any polls except the last one. The only one that counts.

Posted by: CUS at August 02, 2012 05:37 PM (84pE9)

16 That's a clown poll, bro!

Posted by: rockmom at August 02, 2012 05:37 PM (NYnoe)

17 Affirmative. Action. Polling.

Posted by: Cicero Kid at August 02, 2012 05:37 PM (F7Mfi)

18 I poled at least 500 boys yesterday.
#HarryReidIsAPederast

Posted by: Harry Reid at August 02, 2012 05:37 PM (ggRof)

19 +19 and they could still only get Their Boyfriend a 10 point lead? Yeah, that cascade is preferencing all over the place.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD. Now with nachos. at August 02, 2012 05:38 PM (Gk3SS)

20 Pretty soon the polling will be strictly among African Americans.

Posted by: Golan Globus at August 02, 2012 05:38 PM (7vSU0)

21
There is only one way to describe this poll:

PURPOSEFUL.

Posted by: soothsayer at August 02, 2012 05:38 PM (9Q7Nu)

22
CAC; As I tweeted to Gabe today on twitter, I'm like totally on twitter like Meggy Mac, in October it will be D+30.

Posted by: Finn McCool at August 02, 2012 05:38 PM (R/8dI)

23 BTW, just before the RNC convention in 1988, Michael Dukakis led George H.W. Bush by 17 points, in the Gallup poll.

Posted by: rockmom at August 02, 2012 05:38 PM (qE3AR)

24 Because 20% would have been unseemly.

Posted by: wooga at August 02, 2012 05:39 PM (vjyZP)

25
Purposeful is the new retarded.

Posted by: soothsayer at August 02, 2012 05:39 PM (9Q7Nu)

26 It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like
Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these
polls seriously.

It's the "Moral Equivalency" problem. Like when you call (as I did on my blog) a mass murder "Evil" and that he should be put down, and they (as a troll did in the comments section of my blog) they try to compare that to the fact that "Shia and Shiites see a girl kissing a boy as evil..." (yes, really- go look, I had a hard time not laughing).

Too many Republicans either say, "Oh, you're right," or just don't call them on that crap. The same is true here. Trende and Kristol know that they're going to cite polls with better results later, and they don't want to be accused of 'hypocrisy.'

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 02, 2012 05:39 PM (8y9MW)

27 But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!!

Posted by: In before the troll at August 02, 2012 05:40 PM (TIIx5)

28 I think it's actually D+13 among RVs. But that's not much better.

Posted by: Jon at August 02, 2012 05:40 PM (t2DGr)

29 I'm hoping that the Obama faithful completely buy in to this propaganda.

In November it will give their tears that extra tangy bitterness.

Posted by: gebrauchshund at August 02, 2012 05:40 PM (iYwUw)

30 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at August 02, 2012 05:40 PM (6o4Fb)

31 they just included voter fraud indexing to even it out.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at August 02, 2012 05:40 PM (QxSug)

32 The best thing about this poll is that it shows Obama with just a 4 point lead in swing states. If I'm adjusting for the sample correctly, I think we have quite the election to look forward to.

Posted by: JDTAY at August 02, 2012 05:41 PM (a0nis)

33 Enjoy your poll!

Posted by: Chick-Fil-A redhead at August 02, 2012 05:41 PM (O6q63)

34 It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these polls seriously.
Posted by: Shooter McGavin at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (9x27O)

-----------------------------------------------

The repub DC elites are as nervous about the rise of the grassroots repubs/conservatives as the SCOAMT campaign. Their power is being threatened too.

Posted by: Soona at August 02, 2012 05:41 PM (snk4t)

35
Pewk.

Posted by: soothsayer at August 02, 2012 05:41 PM (9Q7Nu)

36
OT but I love Gutfeld he just shoves Beckel's shit right back in his face.
Speaking of Lovits "YOU are calling HIM a fat jerk!"

Posted by: Finn McCool at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (R/8dI)

37 Shameless, they are. Sheesh.

Posted by: eureka! at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (1qHOu)

38 25

Purposeful is the new retarded.

Joe Biden is purposeful.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (UOM48)

39 24 - Yeah, that's just being silly.

Posted by: ErikW at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (txkkr)

40 If it takes a D+19 sample to get him to 50%, he's completely and totally fucked.

That's at the point where we start wondering if Vermont and California are going Republican.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (e0xKF)

41 There's only one purpose to these polls - Republican vote suppression.

Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (GkwjL)

42 I don't know why we keep writing about this shit.

It is not going to stop. No one now is paying attention and these polls are only being generated to somehow energize Obama's dead base.

It's too late. They can do all they want, absent a "wag the dog" October surprise this fucker is over.

Obama's "You didn't build that" is going to swiftquote this fucker into retirement.

Posted by: Billy Bob, the 1% at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (3ZjAP)

43 Courage, ladies and gentlemen. The MSM will do everything it can to make conservatives despair and suppress turnout. Don't believe a word of it.

Posted by: packsoldier at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (JZJ1+)

44 This is what I've been telling you all along, Barack is a closer. Brave, clean and whip smart. All the haters were droning on about us not getting above 50% and voila!

Posted by: J Biden VP & very smart individual at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (4eNxd)

45 A poll of 43% Democrats gives O'Bumbles a TOTAL of 51% of the vote!!! Are you kidding me? He actually gets 8% from Republicans and Independents? 'That's the part I have trouble with.

Posted by: dfbaskwill at August 02, 2012 05:43 PM (ndlFj)

46 They are really, really pulling out all the stops this time. I don't really care what the polls say. If Obama seems more likely to win, I'll be even more determined to vote against him.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 05:43 PM (r4wIV)

47
D/R/I of 43%-24%-32%

Before they crossed over, DRI kicked ass.

Posted by: garrett at August 02, 2012 05:43 PM (NNEG3)

48 The cake is baked... the Preference Cascade is flowing... It's all over except the fraud and arson

Posted by: Bill from Chappaqua at August 02, 2012 05:44 PM (8BaAK)

49 It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like
Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these
polls seriously.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (9x27O)

Kristol is wrong about everything.

Posted by: Jon at August 02, 2012 05:44 PM (t2DGr)

50 That is a lot of Democrats. That poll must be what it is like to live in Massachussets. I'll stick with Texas.

Posted by: SH at August 02, 2012 05:44 PM (gmeXX)

51 25

Purposeful is the new retarded.

Eating lead paint chips can make you highly purposeful.

Posted by: wooga at August 02, 2012 05:44 PM (vjyZP)

52 20
Pretty soon the polling will be strictly among African Americans.

Posted by: Golan Globus at August 02, 2012 05:38 PM (7vSU0)

It would be racist not to.

Posted by: NY Times Editor, Sgt Schlutz at August 02, 2012 05:44 PM (3ZjAP)

53

Barky is....purposeful.
He's been fucking the country over, on purpose.

Posted by: wheatie at August 02, 2012 05:45 PM (mtRB0)

54 Kristol is wrong about everything.

This statement is certainly more accurate than that Pew Poll.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 02, 2012 05:45 PM (8y9MW)

55 48
The cake is baked... the Preference Cascade is flowing... It's all over except the fraud and arson

They'll never have that recipe again... Oh no......

Posted by: Richard Harris at August 02, 2012 05:45 PM (e0xKF)

56
Top 10 Senators in 2010

Senator Average Net Worth
John Kerry (D-Mass) $231,722,794
Mark Warner (D-Va) $192,730,605
Herb Kohl (D-Wis) $173,538,010
Jay Rockefeller (D-WVa) $99,057,011
Frank R. Lautenberg (D-NJ) $85,572,116
Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn) $73,151,590
Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif) $69,046,622
Bob Corker (R-Tenn) $59,550,022
James E. Risch (R-Idaho) $54,088,026
Mitch McConnell (R-Ky) $27,213,024
Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) came in as the caboose with a -$32,500 net worth.

Posted by: steevy at August 02, 2012 05:45 PM (6o4Fb)

57 Pew uses D+19 sample,

It's only +19 assuming that you trust their own reporting of it. I would bet it's much higher. I don't trust anything about Pew, at all. They are your typical despicable, lying, scumbag leftists. If they admit to +19, you can bet your ass it's not.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at August 02, 2012 05:45 PM (X3lox)

58 "41
There's only one purpose to these polls - Republican vote suppression.Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 02, 2012 05:42 PM (GkwjL)"

That and to keep the 'rats from falling into despair. Oh, and to keep money flowing to the campaign.

Posted by: eureka! at August 02, 2012 05:46 PM (1qHOu)

59 Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) came in as the caboose with a -$32,500 net worth.

Well, she is from Michigan, after all.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 02, 2012 05:46 PM (8y9MW)

60 There's no mere pollster whoI trustmore than CAC.

Posted by: Truman North at August 02, 2012 05:46 PM (I2LwF)

61 What? Harry Reid is a pederast?

Damn. I guess we should get together and troll central park.

Posted by: NY Times Editor, Sgt Schlutz at August 02, 2012 05:46 PM (3ZjAP)

62 To be fair- no, really!- they asked 819 Democrats and 459 Republicans.

Has the guy who says, "THE BALLS!" been here yet?

Posted by: t-bird at August 02, 2012 05:46 PM (FcR7P)

63 In our latest poll, we are assuming that all Republicans have left the country and won't be returning until sometime in late November.

Posted by: The Crosstabs at August 02, 2012 05:46 PM (QKKT0)

64 I read on the internet somewhere that Pew supplies Harry Reid with his little friends.

Posted by: dogfish at August 02, 2012 05:47 PM (N2yhW)

65 7 I think I broke a personal best record today of being first in 3 posts. Where's my gold medal?
Posted by: soothsayer at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (9Q7Nu)

You didn't do that on your own!

Posted by: Barak "Pole Smoker" Obamao at August 02, 2012 05:47 PM (YYyqq)

66 Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these polls seriously.

All the more reason why not to take him seriously.

Posted by: Vic at August 02, 2012 05:47 PM (YdQQY)

67
Pretty soon the polling will be strictly among African Americans.

Menthol in a landslide.

Posted by: Bill Crystal at August 02, 2012 05:47 PM (NNEG3)

68 Is it just me, is does anybody else notice that in every other category of polls, teh SCOAMF is way underwater? His handling of the economy is pitiful, his extreme views, and all the rest are very, very negative, with the exception of "likeability" and I strongly doubt that one.

But the overall polls show him in the lead? I smell bullshit.

We're being lied to.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at August 02, 2012 05:47 PM (d0Tfm)

69 "What the dicky-dick is that?"

No, I said that I'm strictly-dicky. That's means I'm not a lesbian or bisexual. Rachel Maddow taught me that one.

Posted by: meghan mccain at August 02, 2012 05:47 PM (4eNxd)

70 I'm curious if there is an Olympic effect. Not as justification for this poll, but just in general. Its not inconceivable to me that when their is an incumbent running his polling could go up a percentage or two merely from the Olympics and the patriotic fever it generates. People may not actually like the incumbent any more but may be less willing to say anything bad about him, including voting in a poll. I have no clue, just wondering if this has ever been studied or documented.

Posted by: SH at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (gmeXX)

71 It's only +19 assuming that you trust their own reporting of it.

This. If they're going to be dishonest about voter sentiment (as such a skewed sample certainly is), then why trust them to be honest with any of it? I wouldn't put past them to have polled, say 1000 people, and then picked the responses they liked. Or, for that matter, just to have made the whole thing up.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (8y9MW)

72 To a few above: No, it's a hell of a lot better to lead.

It demoralizes the other side (more than galvanizing them), motivates your side (not makes them lazy), lets the leaners join the winning side (sunny weather fans), gives a good story in the MSM so undecided folks keeps hearing positive things about your candidate ('all these other people like xyz, I guess he's good').

There is no 34-dimensional chess advantage to being behind in polls. And any sneaky-win exception is call 'the exception' for a reason.

Posted by: Tonic Dog at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (X/+QT)

73 There's only one purpose to these polls - Republican vote suppression.

That's working very well at Chik-Fil-A.

Posted by: t-bird at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (FcR7P)

74 Polling or trolling?

Posted by: Brother Cavil presents at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (GBXon)

75 It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these polls seriously.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (9x27O)

No one should take Bill Kristol seriously. He's an idiot. I don't know who this Trende dude is. He sounds dumb.

Posted by: ThePrimordialOrderedPair at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (X3lox)

76 Look at this gobble gook for how they did the weighting --so much room for "artistic interpretation".

All though they try to sell it as Science!

**********A combination of landline and cell phone random digit dial (RDD) samples were used; both samples were provided by Survey Sampling International. Both the landline and cell RDD samples were stratified by county based on estimated incidences of African-American and Hispanic adults, and counties with higher densities of African-American and Hispanic adults were oversampled. The final sample is weighted to correct for this disproportionate sampling. Respondents in the landline sample were selected by randomly asking for the youngest adult male or female who is now at home. Interviews in the cell sample were conducted with the person who answered the phone, if that person was an adult 18 years of age or older. For detailed information about our survey methodology, see http://people-press.org/methodology/

The sample was divided into three racial/ethnic groups (Hispanics, non-Hispanic African Americans, and non-Hispanic whites/other race) for weighting; each group was weighted using an iterative technique that matches gender, age, education, nativity (among Hispanics) and region to parameters within each racial/ethnic group from the March 2011 Current Population Survey (CPS). The combined sample was then weighted to match gender, age, race, Hispanic origin and nativity, education and region to parameters from the March 2011 CPS and to match population density to a parameter from the Decennial Census. The sample also is weighted to match current patterns of telephone status and relative usage of landline and cell phones (for those with both), based on extrapolations from the 2011 National Health Interview Survey. The weighting procedure also accounts for the disproportionate sampling, adjusts for household size among respondents with a landline phone, and accounts for the fact that respondents with both a landline and cell phone have a greater probability of being included in the combined sample. Sampling errors and statistical tests of significance take into account the effect of weighting. The following table shows the sample sizes and the error attributable to sampling that would be expected at the 95% level of confidence for different groups in the survey:

***

Here's the margin of error they know they end up with- (not the unknown error they might have because they assume all the above weighting formulas are golden.

Shoot can't get the chart to copy--but they end up with a known margin of error for the subset of Republicans that is--

6.6%

Posted by: tasker at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (r2PLg)

77 He actually gets 8% from Republicans and Independents? 'That's the part I have trouble with.
---------------------------------

If Obama got only 8% out of 32% Independents I wouldn't worry. That means he got only one out of four Independents.

Me, I'd just toss the whole poll as meaningless. Except that it reeks of desperation to get Obama to 50% any way they can.

That makes it pure propaganda.

Posted by: farsighted at August 02, 2012 05:49 PM (Dx6XK)

78 This one will have Gerg short stroking all around his momma's basement.

Posted by: maddogg at August 02, 2012 05:49 PM (OlN4e)

79 PEW < Zero Credibility.

Congratulations for making yourselves the laughing stocks of the internet.

Clowns. I know the P stands for Presstitutes, but come up with the E and W on your own.

Posted by: � Sponge at August 02, 2012 05:49 PM (UK9cE)

80 some jackass on salon said you can't chant "USA" at the OLympics>>>>

What the heck is his problem....

Posted by: , at August 02, 2012 05:49 PM (oZfic)

81 I meant there and not their in post 70.

Posted by: SH at August 02, 2012 05:49 PM (gmeXX)

82 A poll of CFA customers was FU Obama by 90%.

Posted by: Invictos at August 02, 2012 05:49 PM (OQpzc)

83
I think I broke a personal best record today of being first in 3 posts. Where's my gold medal?
Posted by: soothsayer at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM (9Q7Nu)

In America : First you win the game. Then you pay the Taxes. Then you get the Medal.

Posted by: Tony Montana at August 02, 2012 05:50 PM (NNEG3)

84 Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) came in as the caboose with a -$32,500 net worth.
Posted by: steevy at August 02, 2012 05:45 PM (6o4Fb)

Holy Crap, I'm worth more than Debbie Stabyourselfintheeyeafterlookingatmenow.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 02, 2012 05:50 PM (9TTOe)

85 25 days to the GOP Convention.
They've given the JEF a 10 point lead, here.
There will be another poll with at least a 5 point lead.
They will do anything and everything to have a five point average lead going into the convention.
The end game is to preempt any bounce from the convention.
That is, they've already written the headlines where Romney only managed to pull "even" despite the traditional convention bounce, which they expect to be 5 or less points.

I think they are going to be shocked at the bounce he gets from the convention.

Oh, and in 2008, the JEF got a bounce from naming his VP. No such boost this time, eh?

But one candidate still has that card to play. Say about 8/20/12.

Heh, heh, heh.

Posted by: RoyalOil at August 02, 2012 05:50 PM (imtbm)

86 Libs have become self-clowning. They really ought to leave campus more often.

Posted by: Invictos at August 02, 2012 05:51 PM (OQpzc)

87 I am in agreement with Kristol, but I like Trende. I have only been reading him for the past couple years, but his analysis seems pretty good. At least he does some analysis.

Posted by: SH at August 02, 2012 05:51 PM (gmeXX)

88 Quoting: "They can do all they want, absent a "wag the dog" October surprise..."

O yes, there IS going to be at least one October surprise. It won't matter how fake it will be...there WILL be at least one.

Posted by: Mr_Write at August 02, 2012 05:51 PM (VJUQK)

89
Nobody can say soothsayer doesn't have goals. Silly though they may be.....

Posted by: maddogg at August 02, 2012 05:51 PM (OlN4e)

90 I took a poll of all those around me, and it is clear that everyone thinks that the JOOOS are bad. I got not one disagreement.

Posted by: SS Obergruppenfuehrer Schultz at August 02, 2012 05:51 PM (6TB1Z)

91 Holy Crap, I'm worth more than Debbie Stabyourselfintheeyeafterlookingatmenow.Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 02, 2012 05:50 PM (9TTOe)......................So, you didn't invest in Solyndra, GM or FaceBook?

Posted by: Invictos at August 02, 2012 05:52 PM (OQpzc)

92 USA is toying with Niger in mens basketball.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 02, 2012 05:52 PM (j1gX1)

93 Oh, and to keep money flowing to the campaign.
Posted by: eureka! at August 02, 2012 05:46 PM (1qHOu)

-------------------------------------------------

There is that too. But I'm looking at as more of an attempt at disinformation. They've been doing this since.....well.....fucking forever.

Posted by: Soona at August 02, 2012 05:53 PM (snk4t)

94 He actually gets 8% from Republicans and Independents? 'That's the part I have trouble with.

Then how about this howler: he gets 27% from those with conservative ideology.

Posted by: t-bird at August 02, 2012 05:53 PM (FcR7P)

95 O yes, there IS going to be at least one October surprise. It won't matter how fake it will be...there WILL be at least one.
Posted by: Mr_Write at August 02, 2012 05:51 PM (VJUQK)

Got a feelin it'll have something to do with bombs, missiles, Muzztards, and Jews.

Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at August 02, 2012 05:53 PM (9TTOe)

96 I took a poll of all those around me, and it is clear that everyone thinks that the JOOOS are bad. I got not one disagreement.
Posted by: SS Obergruppenfuehrer Schultz at August 02, 2012 05:51 PM (6TB1Z)

And it wasn't a skewed sample. He even asked us!

Posted by: Moderate Muslim (Death to America and Joos) at August 02, 2012 05:53 PM (ggRof)

97 With the Chick Fil A protest falling flat on it's face, the liblabs need something to cheer about, so why not a fake poll

Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 02, 2012 05:53 PM (j1gX1)

98 That's like bragging that you shot a 65 round, without explaining that's after your 44 handicap has been applied.

Posted by: Navin R Johnson at August 02, 2012 05:54 PM (HpT9p)

99 92 USA is toying with Niger in mens basketball.

---------

Just as long as they're not doing it on purpose.

Posted by: Chinese Badminton Team at August 02, 2012 05:54 PM (IrbU4)

100
CAC....The Economist and YOUGOV also has poll out today with PLUS 10 Democrat and ROMNEY WAS UP 46/44 with a PLUS 10 Dem!! And it had Obama's Approval at 42 percent!! I mean the plus 19 is needed to show him ahead....soon it will be plus 25 or 26!!
Pew is a left leaning hack!! They are the Grandfather to PPP and they skew so far left that is the EARTH was FLAT they would fall off!!
The Approval rating is the key and yesterday Gallup showed Obama under 50 percent in 37 states and all the Battleground States he was at 46 or below....44 percent in Ohio alone...46...Florida, Penn, VA and Iowa and 43 in Colorado and New Hampshire!! I mean when you see Pew basically bend over for the DEM TAILPIPE it is a joke!
You are right they want the HEADLINE!! Because everyone knows Obama's campaign is not working! Hey I am Obama and now I want Bill Clinton (who hates me) to nominate me at Convention...OH YEAH you so that when you are doing well!! NOT!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 05:54 PM (HDcKc)

101 @76

Good stuff. If I was them, I would be embarrassed to release this nonsense. Sounds like they can not afford a larger sample and simply are trying to fit a square peg in a round hole with their fudge factors.

Simply embarrassing. The stupid is strong. Someone paid for this crap?

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 05:54 PM (3ZjAP)

102 Then how about this howler: he gets 27% from those with conservative ideology.Posted by: t-bird at August 02, 2012 05:53 PM (FcR7P)........................Some folks just want to see the world burn. They are growing however. They don't understand slow motion suicide.

Posted by: Invictos at August 02, 2012 05:55 PM (OQpzc)

103 Quoting Tony Montana: "In America : First you win the game. Then you pay the Taxes. Then you get the Medal."

Please allow me to correct you...I am sure you understand..."you didn't build that" and stuff...

"In America, First you win the game. Then you pay the Taxes. Then Obama gets the Medal"

Posted by: Mr_Write at August 02, 2012 05:55 PM (VJUQK)

104 Can someone email them and ask if they published that with a straight face?

Posted by: � Sponge at August 02, 2012 05:56 PM (UK9cE)

105 Israel is telling Israelis in Sinai to get out because it is dangerous. Personally anyone stupid enough to go into Sinai now a days is someone I want OUT of my gene pool anyway.

Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 02, 2012 05:57 PM (j1gX1)

106 If the sample was all Democrats it would still struggle to break the 60% mark.

Posted by: gastorgrab at August 02, 2012 05:58 PM (FX38i)

107 How do the pollsters justify the ridiculous oversampling of Democrats?

Posted by: Jones in CO at August 02, 2012 05:58 PM (8sCoq)

108 As for Bill Kristol...he is a troll and a total jerk. He has his own personal agenda and he hates the Tea Party. He has been pushing Romney to do this and that and then he subverts his comments behind see these polls...we need to take them seriously...and Bill what is the answer...WELL DUH!! DO WHAT I SAY!! That is Bill Kristol one of the biggest jerks in Washington and truly a clown! He like Rove have no idea of the Tea Party and the millions up millions that WILL VOTE OBAMA OUT!! No poll that is skewed by 30 points will change that BILL!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 05:58 PM (HDcKc)

109 The last poll I took, I was Black.

I didn't see this as lying. I looked at it as an affirmative action moment.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 05:58 PM (3ZjAP)

110 I'm curious if there is an Olympic effect. Not as justification for this poll, but just in general. Its not inconceivable to me that when their is an incumbent running his polling could go up a percentage or two merely from the Olympics and the patriotic fever it generates. People may not actually like the incumbent any more but may be less willing to say anything bad about him, including voting in a poll. I have no clue, just wondering if this has ever been studied or documented.
Posted by: SH at August 02, 2012 05:48 PM (gmeXX)

----------------------------------------------

Let's see.....Obama = American patriotism.......sorry, don't see that happening.

Posted by: Soona at August 02, 2012 05:59 PM (snk4t)

111 109 The last poll I took, I was Black.
I didn't see this as lying. I looked at it as an affirmative action moment.
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 05:58 PM (3ZjAP)

LMFAO

Posted by: Bcochran1981 at August 02, 2012 05:59 PM (GEICT)

112 Should the US get disqualified if they don't reach 90 points by halftime?

Posted by: t-bird at August 02, 2012 05:59 PM (FcR7P)

113 The last poll I took, I was Black.

******

The last pole I took I was totally heterosexual--and purposeful.

Posted by: Harry Reid at August 02, 2012 06:00 PM (r2PLg)

114 100 !! !! !! !! !! !! ! !! ! !! !!

---------

Exclamation points aren't as tasty as ampersands.

Posted by: Pixy's Hamsters at August 02, 2012 06:00 PM (IrbU4)

115 107
How do the pollsters justify the ridiculous oversampling of Democrats?

We pay them for this shit. They know what we want. Any more questions?

Posted by: MSM Spin doctors at August 02, 2012 06:00 PM (3ZjAP)

116 My goodness, Beckel is an insufferable prick.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at August 02, 2012 06:00 PM (d0Tfm)

117 The poll isn't fake, its just being purposeful.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 02, 2012 06:00 PM (cDTht)

118 CAC glad you are around to give some insight on this stuff. I know they are trying to psyche us out with these crazy polls, and I get that. But what about the assertions that Obama is pulling ahead in the swing states? What kind of polls are being used for those numbers?

Posted by: small town girl at August 02, 2012 06:01 PM (BIKHT)

119 100

Welcome to the HQ. Don't try to say it all in one post. Consider decaf.

Posted by: fluffy at August 02, 2012 06:01 PM (O6q63)

120 My guess is that Pew used a Wizard card to cast a magical fog giving them a + 15 on their hundred sided dice roll.

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 02, 2012 06:01 PM (XUKZU)

121 There's another motive behind these incredibly slanted polls: they're setting up the post-election delegitimizing. If "all the polls" showed Obama leading and then he loses miserably, OBVIOUSLY it's a Diebold CONSPIRACY!!! The libs can scream and sue and console themselves that it's not a mandate at all it's FRAUD!!!

Take heart: it means they're planning for defeat already.

Posted by: Trimegistus at August 02, 2012 06:01 PM (HCYax)

122 109
The last poll I took, I was Black.

There's nothing wrong with taking a Black pole, long as it's long and they pay.

Posted by: Crystal Gayle Mangum at August 02, 2012 06:02 PM (3ZjAP)

123 Let's see.....Obama = American patriotism.......sorry, don't see that happening.
Posted by: Soona at August 02, 2012 05:59 PM (snk4t)

********

More happy republicans not answering the phone?

Posted by: Harry Reid at August 02, 2012 06:02 PM (r2PLg)

124 If I didn't know better, I'd think they were trying to disenfranchise me.

Posted by: hannitys_hybrid at August 02, 2012 06:02 PM (zpqa2)

125 The last pole I took I was totally heterosexual--and purposeful.
Posted by: Harry Reid at August 02, 2012 06:00 PM (r2PLg)

So you heard that twat asshole also? And just hearing his voice, he ain't heterosexual. He is as gay as they come!

Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 02, 2012 06:02 PM (j1gX1)

126 Can Romney hang on with one-legged black hispanic jews? He's only up by 14 in that demographic.

Posted by: Stark Dickfl�ssig at August 02, 2012 06:02 PM (Qr2ZV)

127 Both the landline and cell RDD samples were stratified by county based
on estimated incidences of African-American and Hispanic adults, and
counties with higher densities of African-American and Hispanic adults
were oversampled. The final sample is weighted to correct for this
disproportionate sampling.

1> Count the number of samplees.

2> Multiply by the number of times the samplee intends to vote.

Posted by: LC LaWedgie at August 02, 2012 06:02 PM (PcoXF)

128 "How do the pollsters justify the ridiculous oversampling of Democrats?"

Maybe they figure some gigantic surge of Democrat voter enthusiasm will take place. The Dems have lost about twice as many party registrants as the GOP over the last two years. Both parties are losing members, but the Dems are hemmoraghing them

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:02 PM (r4wIV)

129
Dem internal polling shows Obama augering in like an aircraft with an Afirmative Action, or French, pilot.

It is all over but the screaming before impact.

Posted by: Invictos at August 02, 2012 06:03 PM (OQpzc)

130 2
It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like
Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these
polls seriously.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM

We should pay attention to polls that said that the Indianapolis Colts would face the St Louis Rams in the Super Bowl this year too

Posted by: Bill Kristol at August 02, 2012 06:03 PM (Y7XKa)

131
27 percent conservative from a poll with a plus 19 sample Dems...Buddy get a clue. Do you have any idea how these polls are done. Pew would not know a a Conservative for Bob Dole!! I mean when will people like you MAN UP and understand the Left Wing Agenda??? Do you ever see Gallup or Rasmussen show Obama with ANY CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT??? NO SO WISE UP!!! and get your pants on!! PEW, Q-POLL, NYT, MARIST, PPP, CBS, NBC and ABC all WANT OBAMA TO WIN! GET IT!!!
There is your 27 percent conservative....for Pew and other others that would put you to the left of BILL CLINTON!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 06:03 PM (HDcKc)

132 It does creat a useful metric, though. How many weazel points must they add to keep Obama from looking stone cold dead.

Posted by: WalrusRex at August 02, 2012 06:03 PM (XUKZU)

133 How do the pollsters justify the ridiculous oversampling of Democrats?

It's the Harry Reid Polling Center. "Now, do you know any Republicans? Have you heard who they're voting for?"

Posted by: t-bird at August 02, 2012 06:03 PM (FcR7P)

134 How do the pollsters justify the ridiculous oversampling of Democrats?

For enough jack, I'd give the Democrats any results they wanted. I admit it, I could be bought if the price was right enough. For say a few million bucks, I'd even start making outlandishly retarded pro-Obama ads

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 02, 2012 06:04 PM (cDTht)

135 That's also apparently just 'registered voters.'

Posted by: nickless at August 02, 2012 06:04 PM (MMC8r)

136 The more of these kind of polls that get out there, the more wretched the weeping of the legacy media if Romney wins.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:04 PM (r4wIV)

137 The poll question:

Would you vote for the Messiah President obama or that tax cheating felon the right wing haters are running?

Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 02, 2012 06:04 PM (j1gX1)

138 Posted by: @PurpAv at August 02, 2012 06:04 PM (cDTht)

Don't take a post-dated check.

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at August 02, 2012 06:05 PM (nEUpB)

139 2
It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like
Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these
polls seriously.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin at August 02, 2012 05:35 PM

Gulp! Oh no!!!!

Posted by: AllahFrumDit at August 02, 2012 06:05 PM (Y7XKa)

140 I wonder if all these pollsters are looking at their data and saying, "Holy Smokes, Obama dropped 10 points just on this whole "You Didn't Make It" thing!"

So they're asking themselves what the heck they can do to stay employed between now and November.

"I know--let's sample D+20! Oh, wait, maybe we ought to dial it back a bit."

Posted by: Arms Merchant at August 02, 2012 06:06 PM (+XVQe)

141
7
I think I broke a personal best record today of being first in 3 posts.

Where's my gold medal?

Where's our $8,000.

Posted by: IRS at August 02, 2012 06:06 PM (9s6oK)

142 2
It's fun to laugh at these, but I get a little nervous when people like
Sean Trende and Bill Kristol are out there saying we should take these
polls seriously.

Posted by: Shooter McGavin

Isn't Bill Kristol just Peggy Noonan with (or as) a dick?

Posted by: SFGoth at August 02, 2012 06:06 PM (dZ756)

143 D+19

...if you know what I mean

Posted by: sunny at August 02, 2012 06:06 PM (Z7B9y)

144 131

Mmm!! Tasty, tasty bath salts...

Posted by: fluffy at August 02, 2012 06:06 PM (O6q63)

145 137
The poll question:

Would you vote for the Messiah President obama or that tax cheating felon the right wing haters are running?

Don't laugh, the poll I took as a Black was almost that bad.

First question as well as I can remember it. "Do you believe President Obama's tax plan will help middle class Americans?"

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 06:07 PM (3ZjAP)

146 Bill Kristol is a rino dbag. Why would I care what a blind elitist thinks?

Posted by: Invictos at August 02, 2012 06:07 PM (OQpzc)

147 My thinking is the same douches that worked on global warming hockey stick worked on this poll...

Posted by: The Robot Devil at August 02, 2012 06:07 PM (GkwjL)

148 Its also possible they're trying to model the voter fraud for November.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:08 PM (r4wIV)

149 Someone please translate this poll gibberish for me.

Posted by: Sphynx at August 02, 2012 06:08 PM (Jk23z)

150 145 137
The poll question:

Would you vote for the Messiah President obama or that tax cheating felon the right wing haters are running?

Don't laugh, the poll I took as a Black was almost that bad.

First question as well as I can remember it. "Do you believe President Obama's tax plan will help middle class Americans?"
Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 06:07 PM (3ZjAP)

*********

That's a damn push poll.

What state do you live in?

Posted by: Harry Reid at August 02, 2012 06:08 PM (r2PLg)

151 Going to amend my earlier comments (they were awesome, btw). The only silver lining is taking the assumption that most of these polling places will have to get 'closer' to reality right before the election (at some point they do have to care about their reputation - and that is probably only measured by polls a week before the actual vote).

Therefore, the longer they lie to themselves and the public, the more dramatic the correction to reality (Romney ahead?) will be. This, in fact, hurts the Dems by making a narrative that the electorate is breaking HARD for Romney in the last weeks of October. That's when most leaners pay attention and the polling they will get (and the visual graphs!) will show a huge Romney surge.

Momentum.

Posted by: Tonic Dog at August 02, 2012 06:09 PM (X/+QT)

152 Sorry Billy Bob left my Harry Reid sock on.

Posted by: tasker at August 02, 2012 06:09 PM (r2PLg)

153 Sean Trende is a Michael Barone wannabe...he is not very smart and never understands the underlying disdain that exists for Obama...Sean is a numbers guy that sits on his butt and has not one clue of the pulse of the Conservatives that are massing already! Sean Trende had No Insight on the Cruz victory nor would he. Plain and simple Trende is a KOOL AID drinker who could not see the forrest for the trees. He lives off Polls like you and I like Water....to discredit them DISCREDITS his existence and reason for living!! Do you Understand??? In other words, what will TRENDE do with his little boring life if the POLLS WERE GARBAGE??? NOTHING....HE LIVES OFF THEM!! Hence why an idiot like Trende will write garbage about taking polls that are nowhere near reflective of the electorate as serious. HE NEEDS THE POLLS!! But he is useless and clueless...go see if brainaic picked Cruz or Mourdoch in Indiana!! Not Trende will not PREDICT WITH AN ACCURACY the election...he is a second rate hack and Kristol is a whining baby because he thinks he should be President!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 06:09 PM (HDcKc)

154 I've heard that Harry Reid's poling numbers are way up.

Posted by: Soona at August 02, 2012 06:10 PM (snk4t)

155 It was bound to happen, all those previous polls that were skewed D+ weren't getting king putt over 50%, so something had to be done.

Posted by: Jon at August 02, 2012 06:11 PM (hn68z)

156 84 Senator Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) came in as the caboose with a -$32,500 net worth.
Posted by: steevy at August 02, 2012 05:45 PM

Hey, she's a Senator. She has a lot of expenses.

She probably owns a lot but owes a lot more. I would say this is corruption (or at least an ethics violation) waiting to happen.

Posted by: Arms Merchant at August 02, 2012 06:11 PM (+XVQe)

157 This is insane. If you read the numbers right, say Obama gets all his D sample, that leaves 8% of the remaining 56% in his court.

That means, that 8 of 56 is 14% ish. You put that percentage into a hypothetical 30D 30R, 40I sample, you get 30 + 14% of remaining 70% to be generous...

Obama 40, Rommey 60

The public needs to be protected from that preference cascade

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at August 02, 2012 06:11 PM (QxSug)

158 Not a spolier per se, but if you have a chance to watch US men's basketball v Nigeria later, don't miss it, not even a minute of it

Posted by: Truman North at August 02, 2012 06:13 PM (I2LwF)

159 107
How do the pollsters justify the ridiculous oversampling of Democrats?

I don't think they try. They hope not too many people notice.

Posted by: farsighted at August 02, 2012 06:13 PM (Dx6XK)

160 @150

NC and yes it sure as hell was.

I got the same "poll" twice. I have two land lines. I was white the in the first poll, but, praise God, I found my soul in the second poll.

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 06:13 PM (3ZjAP)

161

You know
they are screwing with the sample. What's
to stop them from including a high number of Obama-supporting Republicans in
the Republican portion of the sample, and a low number of Obama-hating Dems. in
their section? Anything goes with Indies. Find
some pretense to dump Romney supporters as bad data points like with climate
data. What's to stop them from just
making up, like they do inChicago and other urban areason election day? Their reputation?These are not completely rhetorical.

Posted by: Dirks Strewn at August 02, 2012 06:14 PM (9s6oK)

162 Just wait for the coverage if Romney wins. Suddenly he'll be the most hateful, evil, psychotic monster that has ever walked the earth. Every word out of his mouth will be a gaffe, every gesture racist, every policy designed to murder infants and rape women. All stops pulled out. Full frothing lunacy engaged.

And they'll justify by how mean we were to President Obama.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:14 PM (r4wIV)

163 what hastags should we use, I tweeted #Dplus19 and #preferencecascadebegins

maybe also use #R60D40

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at August 02, 2012 06:14 PM (QxSug)

164 "The public needs to be protected from that preference cascade"

Is that you Gordon Freeman?

Posted by: Half Life 2 Player at August 02, 2012 06:15 PM (nEo/i)

165 There are two real problems pollsters have.

First molding cell phone vs. land lines.

That's in a damn flux so there is lots of room for error there.

Then--they have always had to weigh for minorities because it is expensive as hell to get enough in a sample set.

I think the only ones that do the latter well is The Field Poll which is also one of the few pollsters that have to care about their reputation--they are primarily for business not media use.

The media threw out concern for legitimacy years ago. The media hasn't been held accountable and pollsters that work for them primarily are drafting right behind that cloak of unaccountability.

Posted by: tasker at August 02, 2012 06:15 PM (r2PLg)

166 Good sign, just got my second robo call recruiting workers for victory Saturday for the GOP. They are working the phones!

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 06:15 PM (3ZjAP)

167
Tonic Dog here is something you need to know....94-95 percent of the electorate has ALREADY MADE UP THEIR MIND!! Leaners and all that crap is for consumption. Do you really think there are people out there undecided??? GET A CLUE!! I just am amazed how stupid people are!! You want the vote...GET THE APPROVAL RATING....Jay Cost has shown in great analysis Presidents get the Approval Rating!! PURE AND SIMPLE!! No partisan breakdown....Right now Obama has between 43-47 percent...THAT IS THE VOTE HE WILL GET!! NO LEANERS or POLLS SURGING!! People buy into that narrative but it is BS!
Unless some major International Event Happens...Obama will get between 43-47 percent...Gallup and Rasmussen both are near identical in that right now!! That is where the real number is!! No poll skewed or in Oct will change that....IT WILL BE WHERE OBAMA'S APPROVAL NUMBER IS!!
He knows that WHY DO THINK HE WANTS BILL CLINTON WITH A 62 PERCENT APPROVAL TO NOMINATE HIM while he is at 43-47 PERCENT APPROVAL???
THAT IS THE NUMBER AXELROD AND OTHERS LOOK AT!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 06:16 PM (HDcKc)

168 "Just wait for the coverage if Romney wins. Suddenly he'll be the most
hateful, evil, psychotic monster that has ever walked the earth. Every
word out of his mouth will be a gaffe, every gesture racist, every
policy designed to murder infants and rape women. All stops pulled out.
Full frothing lunacy engaged."

And you know what -- none of it will mean a thing if he gets results. Which the man's history hints he will.

Posted by: Uriah Heep at August 02, 2012 06:16 PM (Wa+Fw)

169 The Media has sold out its profession to get their savior in Obama. What will they do when they wake up after the election and realize their efforts have helped to make them one of the most vile professions in America?

Posted by: Drew in MO at August 02, 2012 06:17 PM (nEo/i)

170 @167

true dat

Posted by: Billy Bob, pseudo-intellectual at August 02, 2012 06:18 PM (3ZjAP)

171 After the way the exit polls have been so egregiously wrong lately you'd think they would be just discarded, but they are still reported dutifully. Polling is modern day sorcery, its looking at tea leaves and the intestines of a sacrificed enemy. Everyone wants to know the future, and polling is our new arcane way of trying to do just that.

Its as reliable as Madam Orr's palm reading shack, and just as reputable.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:18 PM (r4wIV)

172 Ah! North Carolina--that makes perfect sense.

Thanks.

Posted by: tasker at August 02, 2012 06:18 PM (r2PLg)

173 I know how conspiracy-minded this sounds and seems, but I'm convinced Obama-friendly pollsters are employing these impossibly skewed samples in order to lay the groundwork for massive election fraud. Come election day (or via absentee ballots), they're going to cheat and cheat big--so big the sheer magnitude of the fraud will seem implausible. The only way to pull it off would be if President Obama's numbers showed him either closely behind, within the statistical margin,or slightly ahead in the weeks and days before the election. If he isn't presented as close or ahead, no one would buy the result.

Before you call me batshit paranoid crazy, keep in mind some of Obama's history, Chicago values at work: the disqualification of all of his opponents (of all parties) in his first run for state office; the unsealing of Jack and Jeri Ryan's sealed divorce records, and so on. Please note too that every election scandal in the last several years--the Indiana incident, the Wisconsin fake registrations, Al Franken's US Senate seat--to name a few--has been perpetrated by Democrats. Every one.

Posted by: troyriser at August 02, 2012 06:20 PM (vtiE6)

174 Obama is only able to score 15% of the I side of the poll. That's death knell. Only explanation is the press prefers a horse race, right? I mean what other reason would they hide Obama's drubbing?

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at August 02, 2012 06:21 PM (QxSug)

175 Just wait for the coverage if Romney wins

I'm experiencing this here in PA now with Corbett and a (barely) R state legislature.

the media is CONSTANT with the anti-R, anti-Corbett sentiment. "Corbett's War on Women" "Corbett's War on the Children" etc etc

the fucking inky has had an anti-voter-ID article on the front page - reported as news when they're all completely slanted against it - every. single. day. since forever

IF we manage to get Romney in, keep the House and tilt the Senate, the FIRST THING that must be done is A) unbundling cable so we don't get extorted to support MSNBC anymore and B) stop funneling money to these liberal rags and news stations. The taxpayer support HAS TO END

otherwise it will be as you describe; every day another Romney's War on Puppies shriekfest

the other thing I hope is that everyone just starts to ignore the wailing

Posted by: BlackOrchidPinesForDagny at August 02, 2012 06:22 PM (J6kXj)

176
The narrative being set up for Obama's Loss took place yesterday in the NYT check it out!! RACISM AND VOTER INTIMIDATION...right out of the NYT lamenting yesterday about Obama loss....Now think...all these polls...Obama up 6 or 7 or 10(of course with skewed samples) then on election day he loses!! WELL I BE DARNED those white racists stole the election and Voter ID intimidated millions...CHECK OUT THE NYT from yesterday!! They are creating the narrative already with the polls and pondering!! You see they cover themselves if Obama wins...but check that BACKDOOR to cover themselves if he LOSES!!
THE NYT knows it poll yesterday with Q-POLL was garbage....interesting on the day they publish the poll numbers they publish article of WHY OBAMA WOULD LOSE!!...HMMM!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 06:22 PM (HDcKc)

177 Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 06:16 PM (HDcKc)

No, seriously. Calm down.

a) That can't be good for your blood pressure.
b) None of us like reading the wall of text.
c) Many of the Horde are probably still hung-over from last night's Hobo Hunt and Value-Right tasting, so they don't appreciate the YELLING every OTHER line.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) Channelling Breitbart at August 02, 2012 06:24 PM (8y9MW)

178 "the FIRST THING that must be done is A) unbundling cable so we don't get extorted to support MSNBC anymore and B) stop funneling money to these liberal rags and news stations. The taxpayer support HAS TO END "

I doubt the GOP is even remotely smart enough to go for either of those. Sure, they'd be supported big time by the public, but they won't even think of it, I'm confident.

They'll be too busy working on how they can throw money at their buddies now that THEY are in power.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:25 PM (r4wIV)

179 "They've been doing this since.....well.....fucking forever. Posted by: Soona at August 02, 2012 05:53 PM"

Yup. Thank goodness for the 'net and talk radio. More and more are wising up to their bullshit. Not enough, but more and more.

Posted by: eureka! at August 02, 2012 06:26 PM (1qHOu)

180 Here is a basic way to look at...if OBAMA was winning WOULD THEY NEED TO SKEW THE POLLS??? I think not! Does anyone here believe for one minute that if Romney was behind we would see polls skewed Repub by 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12 and higher?? Not on your life!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 06:27 PM (HDcKc)

181
173

I hate to say it but I was kind of thinking that too, in many states Romney is going to need a big lead to beat the margin of fraud. Its nice how the media largely ignores the amount of fraud baked into the cake for Dems coming out of large Dem controlled cities.

Posted by: Drew in MO at August 02, 2012 06:27 PM (nEo/i)

182 Allen G...I could care less what you like or if you like the way I post...I like passion I could care less if you are a HALF BAKED POTATO!! Go stick in your HORDE!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 06:28 PM (HDcKc)

183 Bluerose, I'm shipping you over some paragraph returns. They look

like

this.

Use them. kthxbye :-)

Posted by: Tonic Dog at August 02, 2012 06:29 PM (X/+QT)

184 Link broken. When I click on it, all I see is thereason why women shouldn't have been given the vote.

Posted by: Nomennovum at August 02, 2012 06:30 PM (gAUJb)

185 in order to lay the groundwork for massive election fraud.

I've been pondering this for a while...

I think Obama will have a harder time with the logistics than a traditional democrat would because he's alienated many of the traditional Dem base who implement the usual local mechanics if Dem vote fraud.

A lot of those smiling little old ladies at the polling places who would have gladly faked up thousands of votes for Hillary or a Dick Gephart ain't all that happy about Obama this time around.

Obama is going to have to build a lot of his own fraud mechanism from the ground up if the traditional one isn't cooperating...and MISTAKES will be made if he's starting from scratch with noobs who haven't done it before.

Posted by: @PurpAv at August 02, 2012 06:31 PM (cDTht)

186 The Democrat fraud machine is partly offset by the much smaller Republican fraud machine and has always been in place. Yeah there is GOP fraud. Its much less significant but its there. And the Dems have been cheating hard for decades. If a Democrat doesn't win by 3% or more, he didn't really win. That's how much you can spot the Dem by.

But the Dem ALWAYS gets that boost, every election. Its like a baseline.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:32 PM (r4wIV)

187 about that USA v NGR b-ball

if you've already seen it, why does it say 'live' on my screen here in Denver metro?

Posted by: Jones in CO at August 02, 2012 06:34 PM (8sCoq)

188 I renormalized the numbers. I estimate from their results that Indep went 64.5/35.5. There is 92 percent response (51+41). If we assume that come November the split is 34D,33R,32I, then this poll ought to show something like R 49.5 D 41.8.

And I'll bet you that is what they got the first time through the numbers, and then decided to cook the books.

Pew's own BS here is pointing toward a blow-out.

Posted by: Hrolf at August 02, 2012 06:35 PM (1jcVG)

189 I'm hoping these skewed polls will serve to make Democrat voters more complacent. As in "Gee, if Obama is going to win so easily, I guess I don't really need to vote."

Conservatives are fired up. These skewed polls will have no affect on them.

Posted by: Marmo at August 02, 2012 06:36 PM (pcgW1)

190 By October the polls should be more sane. Ace pointed this out in like 2004, they go crackers early on to skew the polls trying to manipulate voters, but they tighten up and get more accurate the closer they get to the election because they don't want to be way off and look like tools.

That said... they may not care. Taking one for the team means they'll get work for being one of the boys from leftist organizations, and while the legacy media staggers on a few more steps, that's guaranteed work.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 02, 2012 06:38 PM (r4wIV)

191 And this is why they'll be calling foul if/when Romney wins in November.
but,but,butthe polls had Obama winning sniff sniff

Posted by: rockhead at August 02, 2012 06:38 PM (jtTKf)

192 You know there are pollsters who are trying to figure out a way to sample a negative percentage of Republicans.

Posted by: Bud Norton at August 02, 2012 06:43 PM (ER+OS)

193 >>>I like passion I could care less if you are a HALF BAKED POTATO!! Go stick in your HORDE!

I think we all know what's going on here. Anger. It sounds like somebody wubby needs to have the anger talk again.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at August 02, 2012 06:44 PM (0q2P7)

194 >>>if you've already seen it, why does it say 'live' on my screen here in Denver metro?

You know, that little "live" graphic doesn't magically disappear from recordings.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at August 02, 2012 06:46 PM (0q2P7)

195 It's funny, everybody was pissed off about "you didnt build that!" and look! the week or two after he says it, his poll numbers are GETTING BETTER!!11!!

Yeah, thats totally believable. All of a sudden Obama's up 10. Last night or a couple nights ago, CBS news was breathless to report their poll showing Obama leading in all 3 swing states.

Posted by: BH at August 02, 2012 06:47 PM (087UA)

196 What do all the polls that accidentally oversample Reps say?

Posted by: TheNoseKnows at August 02, 2012 06:50 PM (qAMin)

197 How is this poll even possible?

How do you randomly sample so many more democrats?

What to they do?

Ring Ring

Hello?

Hello we are conducting a survey of voters in your area, can we speak to a democrat adult who supports Obama in your household?

Posted by: jeremiah Gosh Darn Amerikkka Wright at August 02, 2012 07:02 PM (ovpNn)

198 Yeah Mikethe Moose...I am so angry and so sorry you did not like...boohoo I will cry...NOT I COULD CARE LESS IF YOU THINK IT IS ANGER!! GREAT!! Now be a good little DUD and crawl in your little quiet corner....LOL!!

Posted by: bluerose75 at August 02, 2012 07:04 PM (HDcKc)

199 Just laying the ground work for "selected not elected '12"

Posted by: JohnG at August 02, 2012 07:05 PM (VTZmY)

200 Did anybody else notice that when they called the household,the pollster asked for the YOUNGEST voter that was at least 18 years old?

And we all know that yutes naturally lean D....

Poll methodology ....somebody needs to invent a class on that.

Oh,wait....never mind.

Posted by: In the Belly of the Beast-Kathy in MD at August 02, 2012 07:10 PM (A5iH4)

201 Oh, and bluerose75?

It's common moron courtesy to suck up to the regulars for a few weeks and post naked blogging pics of yourself first.

THEN,when you've lulled them into a state of placidity (kind of like giving Val-U-RIte to a local hobo), then you may proceed with the targeted hatred. Oops, forget that.

We're a kindler, gentler blog now.

I need to keep a Post-It note on my computer to remind me of that new policy....

Posted by: In the Belly of the Beast-Kathy in MD at August 02, 2012 07:20 PM (A5iH4)

202 Romney 80 Obama 20. 10/80/10

Plus or minus 2.5

See I can make up polls too! It's as easy as paint by numbers.

Posted by: Oldyfan Poll at August 02, 2012 07:27 PM (egHP5)

203 D/R lean in polls doesn't mean that much, since it's so inconsistent. Lots of people who are non-partisan tend to identify with whatever party is getting good headlines, which candidate they like better, what they had for breakfast yesterday morning, etc.

For example, check the conservative/ind/liberal split - it's 40/37/33. How the heck do you get a poll that's biased towards Dems by 19 and conservatives by 7 at the same time?

There's also the Bloomberg poll released today - that's got O leading by 13, with only a D+5 sample. http://bloom.bg/MsvUgf . Party sample's really a crap metric, and you'd save yourself a lot of time and angst ignoring it.

What's more important is trend lines, and last month's Pew had Obama by 7. So Romney's not heading in the right direction.

Posted by: Spanky at August 02, 2012 07:27 PM (ReEZ2)

204 Spanky, so your premise is that there's no rational basis as to what constitutes the current breakdown...and thus we should worry about trendlines of inconsistent polls?

Posted by: JB at August 02, 2012 07:54 PM (xVcWj)

205 @ Spanky
Isn't that a poll for the middle of June? If so, it was the only poll at the time (or since) to show anywhere near that kind of spread and it appears to be a statistical anomaly. The other polls with Dem skews show Obama leads. Rasmussen, with a Repub skew, shows a Romney lead. This is, and will be, close.

Posted by: TheNoseKnows at August 02, 2012 08:04 PM (qAMin)

206 Hell, this is nothing. Just wait until after the Dem convention. There'll be various media polls showing Obama with a 15-point lead. As for the actual election, it'll be close. Romney does have a fighting chance, at least, and ifthe jobmarket continues disintegratingbetweennow and November then Romney probably is a slight favorite.

Posted by: Tsar Nicholas II at August 02, 2012 08:32 PM (f8XyF)

207 @JB: Oh, I think the Pew polls are consistent. They've been consistently biased towards Dems the whole year. No reason you can't use their trendlines like everyone else's.

@TheNoseKnows: (nods) We haven't even gotten to the conventions and debates yet, when indies will wake up and pay attention. If anything, these polls show that "you didn't build that" hasn't done much for Romney.

Posted by: Spanky at August 02, 2012 09:22 PM (ReEZ2)

208 "If anything, these polls show that "you didn't build that" hasn't done much for Romney."

If that's the case, then nothing will prevent Obama's re-election. A bad economy plus a President who has disdain for business should equal an ass kicking out of the Oval Office. But Romney's campaign is taking on water and falling further behind by the day. Back in 96, poor old Bob Dole let Clinton define him during the summer and his campaign never got traction after that. And the GOP partisans said the polls didn't matter back then, either. The Pew poll can be overlooked, but the Bloomberg one can't.

Oh, and Fritz if you are out there, I would like my 1000.00 please. You were thoroughly owned, my friend.

Posted by: toldyaso at August 02, 2012 10:35 PM (/5cf7)

209 The 2010 midterm elections had these percentages at the polls:
36% Republican 36% Democrat 28% Independent.

In 2008, the breakdown was:
28.7% Republican 31.3% Democrat.

The breakdown in this Pew Poll is not even close to recent voter turnout. This is absolutely shameful, and it's proof-positive that some polling organizations are now slanting their polls to provide a PR bump for "their guy."

Posted by: Restless at August 03, 2012 12:40 AM (/wpH/)

210 I apologize for what follows. It's long-winded but not spam, just my opinion with a little bit of analysis:

OK, I took a look at the party ID numbers in this poll, and they do work out to D +19. However, the PEW pollsters re-weighted for a number of factors (but not party ID!). Nevertheless, the D+19 number is not accurate. Using algebra on the party ID numbers, we get three linear equations:

1) Obama voters: 6R + 91D + 43I = 51
2) Romney voters: 90R + 6D + 45I = 41
3) Undecided: 4R + 3D + 13I = 7

(The missing 1% is split among the 3 types, I suppose, with none of the types reaching the magic 0.5% to gain another whole point.)

In the bad old days, I�d have to work this out by hand calculator using Kramer�s rule, or row reduction, one step at a time (Blecccch). Nowadays, I turn to my handy-dandy graphing calculator, and let it row-reduce the 3 x 4 matrix representing that system of 3 equations/3 unknowns. My calculator spits out the partisan ID subsamples of the re-weighted poll:

Republican 24.1%, Democrat 36.5%, Independent 38.0%

So the re-weighted partisan ID is Democrats +12.4%.

1st cut: The exit poll for 2008 (CNN) was D +7%. If that turnout is assumed to be the same, Obama leads this poll by about 48.3-43.7 (4.6%).

2nd cut: The exit poll for 2010 (again, CNN) was even (35-35-29). If that turnout is assumed to be the same, then adjusting this poll shows Romney ahead leads this poll by about 46.9-45.1.

3rd cut: Assuming a slight normalizing to the mean indicates the partisan ID numbers swing back slightly to the Dems this time. However, Gallup polling says intensity is much higher among Republicans than Democrats so far this year. Call it a wash, leaving Romney up 2.

4th cut: We finally see that this Pew poll polled registered voters, not likely voters. Adding the customary 3% for the Republicans leaves up at Romney 48.4, Obama 43.6.

Or not. Snake oil, $5.99 a bottle.

===============================

Actually we don�t have to through all this calculatin� rigmarole. Looking at the breakdown by party, we see Obama leading 91-6 with Democrats, and Romney leading 90-6 with Republicans and 45-43 with Independents. An even 3-way split leaves Romney up 1/3 of a percent. Adjust for registered voters and Romney�s up about 3%. An even 2-way split a la 2010 gives about the same result. Adjust for registered voters and Romney�s still up 3.

But it�s simpler than that. Pew�s skewed poll says Romney�s up 2 with independents, among registered voters, and the Dems and Reps support their candidate by nearly identical margins. That fact alone says Romney�s ahead a couple of points, assuming the partisan ID turnout doesn't match 2008. And it won't.

Posted by: Evan3457 at August 03, 2012 01:05 AM (e8QWD)

211 Dang! So if you poll a bunch of Democrats, Obama wins?
Who'd a thunk. I guess this mean we wont be winning DC after all.

Anyway, this biased poll stuff needs to toughen up the Romney team and make us sharper ... work as if you are 10 points behind because , if you dont give your side a reason to vote for you ... you will be.

Posted by: Harry P Ness Reid at August 03, 2012 02:08 AM (WhCZZ)

212 Suggestion for posssible new slogan for PEW. "We'll do our best to make the data say what you want it to say"?

or perhaps "At PEW we Skew!" ??

Posted by: avidbuff at August 03, 2012 06:20 AM (Vtkx1)

213 Shouldn't a polling firm understand what the term "sample" means?

Posted by: Army of Fact-Checkers at August 03, 2012 02:26 PM (KvKOu)

214 Posted by: Evan3457 at August 03, 2012 01:05 AM (e8QWD)

Excellent analysis Eva3457...

Posted by: mnjg at August 03, 2012 03:57 PM (e3hs8)

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