Is Minnesota Actually In Play?

Per Survey USA's latest release, President Obama's lead has been halved, down to just 46-40 over Mitt Romney.

So Mitt can carry the one state that Reagan lost in 1984?

No.

Circumstances may change, but the "Minnesota moderate" bloc is a hard nut to crack and gives a good cushion to the President. However, there is one finding from the poll that is very, very telling about the remaining Great Lakes states.

There is only one region per this poll that goes to Romney: northeastern Minnesota. By a ten point margin.

Now, some may not be surprised by this, because of Craavack's victory over Oberstar in 2010. But if you look at the history of the state Presidential election returns, this is one of those BFD's- the heavily blue collar, unionized part of the state, which went strongly for Kerry, Gore, Clinton, Dukakis, Mondale, Carter, McGovern, Humphrey, Johnson, Kennedy, Stevenson, etc is the only region in their poll going for Romney. Their regional sample isn't a fluke- when asked about the Senate race the regions voters favor the Democrat by a twenty-two point margin, like it almost always has gone.

The scope of just how Democrat-loyal this region has been is confirmed when looking at the election maps year to year (David Leip sticks with the old blue-R red-D from pre-2000, so inverse them in your head for the full effect).

With similar findings in the blue collar regions of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, we are seeing a stark political shift in the voting patterns of these long-long-long time loyal Democratic voters. Romney, without spending much of anything in the state, enjoys a dark blue region swinging 32 points in his favor. If Romney actively targets these same voters region-wide, we are talking about flipping holdouts Nixon and Reagan failed to in their landslide re-elections. We are talking about taking a majority of Great Lakes states for the first time since the 1980s.

We are talking about Obama losing, big.

Posted by: CAC at 02:20 PM

Comments

1 THe president is a scoamf

Posted by: phoenixgirl, team dagny at July 23, 2012 01:46 PM (SmBQZ)

2 Ore. Man Allegedly Broke Into Homes To View Porn http://goo.gl/fb/lXtrK

Posted by: kbdabear at July 23, 2012 01:46 PM (Y7XKa)

3 Average Joe wept.

Posted by: toby928Š at July 23, 2012 01:47 PM (QupBk)

4 Word. MN won't go GOP--that would be your cue we've shifted into an alternate reality--but it can be examined for signs of weakness. If the old Blue core goes soft, all Barky has are fringe unions and ethnic groups, and that's not (yet) a winning coalition.l

Posted by: Brother Cavil presents at July 23, 2012 01:47 PM (GBXon)

5 Yeah, but only because they're racists.

Posted by: Obligatory Lefty meme at July 23, 2012 01:48 PM (RD7QR)

6 LA LA LA LA, I CAN'T HEAR YOU !!!!

Posted by: Greg the Poll Fapping Troll at July 23, 2012 01:48 PM (Y7XKa)

7 These days, who knows what is going on with politics. I think all the rules were thrown out the window in 2008 and we're operating under a whole new environment. All I know is, if Romney wins, the left will go berserk screaming even louder and worse than they did about Bush, from day 1. They learned in those years that no lie, no exaggeration, no invention is too big or too absurd for people to believe if you just yell it loudly and often enough.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at July 23, 2012 01:48 PM (r4wIV)

8 But Intrade has Obama up by 30 in MN !

Posted by: In Before the Troll at July 23, 2012 01:48 PM (Y7XKa)

9 R-Money and Glen Beck lead the Mormon Milisha to turn Amerika into the 4th Rike and kill all the brown people!

We WILL stop them!

*SPIT*

Posted by: KayInMaine at July 23, 2012 01:52 PM (/Aauo)

10 MN may well go Romney. This will be a Carteresque election. Maybe not 47 States because Romney is no Reagan but it will be a blowout because Obama is no Mondale.

Posted by: Vic at July 23, 2012 01:52 PM (YdQQY)

11
We are talking about Obama losing, big.Posted by: CAC at 01:44 PM I think I Love You!

http://tinyurl.com/yt85ax
Try to get that out of your head!

Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at July 23, 2012 01:53 PM (vXqv3)

12 Eight ball, red pocket.

Posted by: Minnesota Fats at July 23, 2012 01:53 PM (QKKT0)

13 6 Posted by: Greg the Poll Fapping Troll at July 23, 2012 01:48 PM (Y7XKa)

If we're going to fap, can't we atleast get something fap-worthy??? There's been no Kate (of any persuasion) or female hurdlers or Christina or anything. Makes me sad. And nobody likes sad fapping.

Posted by: BCochran1981 at July 23, 2012 01:54 PM (da5Wo)

14 Hey! The disappearing thread trick.

Posted by: toby928Š at July 23, 2012 01:54 PM (QupBk)

15

Kay, you're a delusional scrunt!

Posted by: Doctor Fish at July 23, 2012 01:54 PM (hvwLi)

16 If there's any question about Minnie-SO-tah then on November 8th we might wake up and party like it's 1984.

I'll hit the Music: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bGDJvxjSR5c

Posted by: Naqamel at July 23, 2012 01:54 PM (UMwMT)

17 Wow. Even WaPo writer has given up on Dems taking the House.

http://bit.ly/MjdmPI

Posted by: RushBabe at July 23, 2012 01:54 PM (tQHzJ)

18
We are talking about Obama losing, big.Posted by: CAC at 01:44 PM I think I Love You!

Posted by: ConcealedKerry or SubMitt at July 23, 2012 01:54 PM (vXqv3)

19 First?

Posted by: Buzzsaw90 at July 23, 2012 01:54 PM (SO2Q8)

20 I originally thought that the Kay in Maine may have been a sock. But, lo and behold, I clicked on the name and was immediately taken to her pathetic web site. And yes, her main story: Right Wing Nut Shots 14 in Colorado Theater and Rush and Glen Beck to blame.

Lord, the stupid, it burns, why did I go over without properly securing my hazmat uniform.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at July 23, 2012 01:56 PM (OWjjx)

21 If MN ends up being a swing state, Obama has a lot more to worry about than campaigning here. Namely, hiring a moving company and finding enough boxes.

In terms of geography 90% of the state will vote Romney, but with half the population concentrated in the Twin Cities metro Obama will carry the state without much trouble.

The only consolation would be if he feels the need to waste campaign dollars that could otherwise go to swing states here in MN though.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at July 23, 2012 01:56 PM (SY2Kh)

22 I live in MN. No chance. Obama 2012 stickers all over in the metro here.

Posted by: Lemmenkainen at July 23, 2012 01:58 PM (ZWvOb)

23 There's a whole swatch that runs from MI thru WI and MN that consists of dumbass yoopers.
I have no idea why they are so profoundly stupid, but they are.

Posted by: VW Zao at July 23, 2012 02:11 PM (I7O5y)

24 See?

Posted by: toby928Š at July 23, 2012 02:53 PM (QupBk)

25
Posting comments without having read either the article or other peeps' comments!

Breitbart would be so proud of us!

Posted by: Krebs v Carnot: Epic Battle of the Cycling Stars at July 23, 2012 03:14 PM (UzjcV)

26 So this thread reappears pre-pushed down by DrewM. Nice.

Posted by: toby928Š at July 23, 2012 03:43 PM (QupBk)

27
No giant map?
No tittehs?
Loose shit, CAC.

Posted by: garrett at July 23, 2012 03:44 PM (mKyjy)

28 Minnesota probably won't go red because we have a Secretary of State(Mark Ritchie) who committed voter fraud to get Al Franken elected, and he'll just do it again. 2000 felons voted that time. I'm sure he'll find several thousand more.
We have a hell of a time getting the message out about that, as the Minnesota media is more marxist than pravda.

Posted by: Tamminator at July 23, 2012 03:57 PM (hGi/Q)

29 Ore. Man Allegedly Broke IntoHomes To View Porn http://goo.gl/fb/lXtrK

Posted by: kbdabear at July 23, 2012 01:46 PM (Y7XKa)

So I guess we all know where Ace went on vacation. Time for tough love, `rons. DO NOT hit the tip jar for bail money. Squatchy pole dancer money, yes. Surreptitious internet porn? We have to draw a line somewhere.

Posted by: ObjectionSustained at July 23, 2012 04:02 PM (eLlXW)

30 When the jewel of your state is Detroit? Um, well... fuck you.

Posted by: Dang at July 23, 2012 04:11 PM (Ky1+e)

31 Ugh.. I thought KayInMaine was being "humorous" this morning and only pretending to be a left wing douchenozzle.. I'm sorry I gave her the benefit of the doubt.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at July 23, 2012 04:13 PM (f9c2L)

32 I live in Teh Peoples Republic of Minnesota. 52% of 'em are complete political morons or on the dole. Cenex and ADM rule the outstate areas that aren't directly on the king's schilling in the form of Iron Range Relief Programs.
The last couple elections actually saw some hope that maybe we'll swing the state slowly to 52% conservative, but I'm not holding my breath. Consider that they voted in this moron Dayton as governor and elected Al "Diaper Boy" Franken and Governor Turnbuckle and Paul Wellstone as well as a full panel of communistas like Kommisar Klobuchar and Betty McCommie from my own district. Still... I can hope.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at July 23, 2012 04:13 PM (EhYdw)

33 Reverse succession, can we give Minnesota to Canada? OK 'pay to take' not give.

Posted by: SpongeBob Saget at July 23, 2012 04:19 PM (SDkq3)

34 Poor CAC....pulls his thread to let JWF's thread go a little longer and then DrewM comes in and pushes CAC's reposted thread down like a fat kid on the playground.

In other words, it's Monday at the HQ.

Posted by: Tami at July 23, 2012 04:26 PM (X6akg)

35 I could have sworn you said Michigan. Sorry. Carry on.

Posted by: Dang at July 23, 2012 04:28 PM (Ky1+e)

36 The Democrats have a LOT of legacy voters, voters who vote Democrat for no good reason other than good feelings about the "party of the people".

There are some ag subsidy voters who for some reason vote D in Minnesota and Wisconsin and R in the plains states. But that will end soon. No money.

Posted by: AmishDude at July 23, 2012 04:36 PM (T0NGe)

37 #23,

As a Yooper, I can tell you that Obama will not win the UP. In 2008 there were a lot of Obama stickers, this year I have seen 2---but there are lots of "Obama-One big Ass Mistake America" bumper stickers. Obama came up here last winter and was so condescending and aloof it was amazing. he did a couple photo ops, but had no contact with the people, and it turned even his few fans off. plus, they don't like Moochelle Obama.

Posted by: Chilling themost at July 23, 2012 05:07 PM (6IV8T)

38 Lemmenkainen -- I l almost never see obama stickers and I'm in MPLS. Much different than the Kerry era, but maybe it's early.

Posted by: MJH at July 23, 2012 05:21 PM (ipl3Q)

39
Minnesota in play?
The State that voted for Mondale over Ronnie, elected Jesse Ventura and his post traumatic stress disorder and gave us Senator Al Franken, let me repeat that AL FRANKEN! Please forgive me if I'm skeptical!
Time and money are limited. Two states will have to "flip" to depose "the king". Concentrating on Wisconsin and Iowa, in the mid west, strikes me as a more productive use of both.

Posted by: needsleepe at July 23, 2012 05:40 PM (vHvvr)

40 So how does the "Twin Cities" region end up only 46 - 40 for Obama? Any idea how big that area actually is in the poll?

Posted by: Greg Q at July 23, 2012 05:44 PM (4Pleu)

41 I'll settle for a 50 out of 57 states sweep.

Posted by: Joe Mama at July 23, 2012 06:03 PM (Irb+I)

42 Kay you ever been in Battleboro VT?

Posted by: Wonkish Rogue at July 23, 2012 06:41 PM (9Uq0z)

43 "Minnesota in play?
The State that voted for
Mondale over Ronnie, elected Jesse Ventura and his post traumatic stress
disorder and gave us Senator Al Franken, let me repeat that AL FRANKEN!
Please forgive me if I'm skeptical!
Time and money are limited.
...
Posted by: needsleepe at July 23, 2012 05:40 PM (vHvvr)
"

..for both sides. if it's close enough to warrant attention by The Pantload's campaign, then it's close enough to warrant spending -- thereby increasing the burn rate on an already cash-strapped Obama effort.

Posted by: The War Planner at July 23, 2012 06:50 PM (46YuL)

44 32- I live here too and agree with everything you and Needsleepe (who left out Mark Dayton as governor). To be fair, however, the Republican party is in shambles. Our candidates are comical. To take just one example, we had the chance to nominate Pete Hegseth to run against Amy Klobuchar and ended up with a Paulbot. She's got nothing to worry about.

Posted by: Moonbeam at July 23, 2012 09:19 PM (1k4dd)

45 Dayton wouldn't have won if the 3rd candidate (sore-loser)didn't split the conservative vote

Posted by: zeera at July 24, 2012 12:41 AM (XtxRN)

46 L'il Barry abandoned the "Ranger" vote according to the NYT last fall... not seeking non-college white voters, etc. These are real people with deer rifles. They go to church. They eat ethnic food. They know what to do with eelpout, and whitefish livers. If the fat faggots in St. Paul who run the state GOP ever put up a senate candidate who was not once a DFLer ("Norm!"), the voters will flock to him or her, especially if the surname is vowel-deficient (as, e.g., "Klobuchar").

Posted by: Thorvald at July 24, 2012 01:17 AM (1V6Pv)

47 "Who was that masked man? He left a taconite pellet."
"The Iron Ranger!"
h/t to Steve Cannon.

Posted by: Thorvald at July 24, 2012 01:18 AM (1V6Pv)

48 Should'nt the D's be red. Commie Red. Seems more appropriate.

Posted by: Listicq at July 24, 2012 02:28 AM (DdOVD)

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