Nancy Pelosi: Yeah, I'm Pretty Confident Our Chances of Taking Back the House are Better Than 50/50

A couple of missed chances -- for example, in one California district, two Republicans finished in the "Top Two" in their goofy system, and thus the Democrats have literally no hope of winning the election there.

The Hill goes on to say it "projects" the Democrats winning 10-15 seats. Not enough to take the House, but a win, of sorts.

But... why?

Rasmussen has had the Republicans with a consistent, and now large, lead in the Congressional generic ballot.

It's currently 45-38. And you have to go back aways to find the Democrats ahead.

Republicans have consistently held a modest advantage over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot since June 2009. During 2012, support for Democrats on the generic ballot has ranged from 36% to 41%. Republicans have stayed between 40% and 46% in that same time period.

Maybe the Democrats are expecting some good economic news? Well, maybe they are, but the Fed doesn't seem to be.

The U.S. central bank will most likely ease monetary policy when it meets this week as recent data point to a worsening labor market and the crisis in Europe intensifies, Goldman Sachs said.
The Federal Open Market Committee will likely say it would buy assets such as mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasurys when it meets for a two-day meeting starting Tuesday, Jan Hatzius, the investment bank’s Chief U.S. Economist said in a report on Monday.
“We would be quite surprised if we saw no easing this week,” Hatzius wrote in the report.

This sort of intervention is of course undertaken when the economy is expected to deteriorate. (So far, these interventions have not produced good growth, of course.)

I'm not sure what on earth the Hill is basing its predictions on, apart from hope, and the built-in desire to "predict" something that looks like a regression to the mean.

But that's not a real regression to the mean.

It also helps to know what the "mean" actually is. They keep seeming to imagine the "mean" -- the baseline -- in politics is Democratic rule, so any Republican victory should be short-lived, soon "corrected."

Posted by: Ace at 02:07 PM

Comments

1 Why?

Three reasons: turnout, turnout, turnout.

In the words of Paul Revere ringin those bells, "The ~~Redcoats~~ Democrats are coming!"

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:09 PM (9Q7Nu)

2 I'm pretty confident Nancy Pelosi is stupid cubed.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:10 PM (9TTOe)

3
On the other hand, the Democrats are running on Vagina vagina vagina.

Good luck with that nonsense in this struggling economy.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:10 PM (9Q7Nu)

4 Nancy Pelosi: "Yeah, I'm pretty confident the chances of my face being frozen in an eternal corpse-like rictus due to too many Botox shots is better than 50/50."

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter at June 19, 2012 02:12 PM (4df7R)

5 Does this include redistricting where R's are up 10 to 12 seats from 2010? I call bullshit Republicans will actually pick up ten more seats with a Romney landslide

Posted by: bobbymike at June 19, 2012 02:12 PM (cZieJ)

6 Ace must've taken HGH and roids over the weekend. He's back with a vengeance.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:12 PM (UK9cE)

7 I'm pretty confident Nancy Pelosi is stupid cubed.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:10 PM (9TTOe)

I don't know that the FDA has done any studies on the effects of too many botox injections that close to the brain.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:13 PM (UK9cE)

8 as allahpundit said, she's a robotic, partisan hack, so that's why she's hopeful.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 19, 2012 02:14 PM (QxSug)

9 When Nancy passes on to the next plane, I'm quite sure they won't have to use any embalming fluids for the open casket.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:14 PM (UK9cE)

10 She's a female Monty Burns.

Posted by: nickless at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (MMC8r)

11 IIRC, Cali democrats did some crazy BS with their redistricting, so to lose a district to GOP is a big blow.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (QxSug)

12 What are her chances of taking back her reputation?

Posted by: Cricket at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (DrC22)

13 Maybe the Democrats are expecting some good economic news?

Of course they are. You can expect announced unemployment to be less than 8% and the Quarterly GDP to rise to a 5% growth in October.

Count on it.

Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (YdQQY)

14 I saw her statement regarding this, elsewhere about 6 weeks ago and I was dumbfounded. I think I commented on it here, and some moron said 'yeah, they're expecting it to happen.' Really? Is not trending in their direction. At all.

Posted by: small town girl at June 19, 2012 02:16 PM (a0mM2)

15
Yeah, that's probably right.

probable outcome combinations
Romney wins, GOP wins Senate, GOP gains seats in House
Obama wins, GOP wins Senate, GOP retains House
Worst Case: Obama wins, Senate is 50/50, GOP loses the House.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:16 PM (9Q7Nu)

16
9 When Nancy passes on to the next plane, I'm quite sure they won't have to use any embalming fluids for the open casket.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:14 PM (UK9cE)

She's already dried out like beef jerky.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter at June 19, 2012 02:16 PM (4df7R)

17
She's a female Monty Burns.

Posted by: nickless at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (MMC8r)

In more ways than one!!!!

Posted by: Smithers at June 19, 2012 02:16 PM (UK9cE)

18 The Dems will be lucky to not lose any seats. Everything lines up against them in Nov. Unpopular incumbent. More enthused GOP base. Money. Redistricting. Even with McCotter's boner giving the Dems a potential pickup they shouldn't really have, it's still hard to see the numbers swinging in their favor by more than 2 or 3, AT BEST.

Posted by: Chris R, red in NY-9 at June 19, 2012 02:16 PM (v362Z)

19 It's good to see she's no longer pretending she won in 2010, anyway.

Posted by: Waterhouse at June 19, 2012 02:17 PM (GnKed)

20 Quoting: "It also helps to know what the 'mean' actually is."

When the Dems mention mean, it is always when Republicans do or say anything that even slightly goes against the Dems agenda.

Posted by: Mr_Write at June 19, 2012 02:17 PM (VJUQK)

21 if SCAOMF wins, it will be on the back of voter fraud. So, if GOP wins senate, house, expect an impeachment vote fairly quickly next time he takes the law into his own hands.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 19, 2012 02:17 PM (QxSug)

22 >>>She's a female Monty Burns.

Ewwwwww!

Posted by: Smithers at June 19, 2012 02:18 PM (NF2Bf)

23
In other words, if Romney wins, we run the table. If Obama wins/steals another term, Congress is in jeopardy.

But you all knew that already.

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:18 PM (9Q7Nu)

24

The consensus is that the SC ruling for Obamacare is the week of the 25th.

But, I wonder how they will time the ruling.

Friday night dump? To alleviate the pressure; with a weekend of buffer from violence during the work week? Or, Monday? Or, any ole random day, when they are ready.

Posted by: pause at June 19, 2012 02:18 PM (HOOye)

25 Quoting #4: "Nancy Pelosi: 'Yeah, I'm pretty confident the chances of my face being
frozen in an eternal corpse-like rictus due to too many Botox shots is
better than 50/50.'"

I'd say it's around 100% actually.

Posted by: Mr_Write at June 19, 2012 02:19 PM (VJUQK)

26 Count on it.
Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (YdQQY)
======

agreed

Posted by: pause at June 19, 2012 02:20 PM (HOOye)

27 She has nice boobs.

Posted by: Boy whose Dad told him if he couldn't say anything nice STFU. at June 19, 2012 02:20 PM (9TTOe)

28 When the R's hold the house, take the senate and wh, and the economy gets better, I imagine the new meme will be, they took over at exactly the same time as SCoaMF's policies were starting to kick in.

Posted by: Up, Up With People at June 19, 2012 02:20 PM (iYvMQ)

29 "You'll have to elect Democrats to find out what I'm talking about." - Nancy Pelosi.

Posted by: sgt. york at June 19, 2012 02:21 PM (gw1Wl)

30 They keep seeming to imagine the "mean" -- the baseline -- in politics is Democratic rule,...

All your baselines belong to us.

Posted by: demrule at June 19, 2012 02:21 PM (HOOye)

31 Of course they are. You can expect announced unemployment to be less than 8% and the Quarterly GDP to rise to a 5% growth in October.
Count on it.

Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 02:15 PM (YdQQY)

On it!

Posted by: Count de Monet at June 19, 2012 02:22 PM (BAS5M)

32 Wow...

she's got to be smoking the-

Hydroponic good stuff.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:22 PM (r2PLg)

33 And I remember back when hag was in charge of the house, all the once a week press quotes from the guythat was minority leader of the house. Yes, I remember him well, in the press all the time! As soon as I look up his name in the archives, I'll remember even better.

Posted by: Up, Up With People at June 19, 2012 02:23 PM (iYvMQ)

34 Of only Pelosi was a bookie giving those odds ....

Posted by: Count de Monet at June 19, 2012 02:23 PM (BAS5M)

35 There are some GOP seats that are almost certain to fall to the Dems no matter what in 2012: Joe Walsh in IL-8, Charlie Bass in NH-2, Roscoe Bartlett in MD-6, Mike Grimm in NY-13, Allen West's old seat in FL-22 (he's moving to run in a newly-created district, as his old one got more Dem-leaning), Blake Farenthold in TX-27

Then you have a few that are very good-looking for the Dems but which the GOP may hold onto because of candidate quality: Bob Dold in IL-10 and Bobby Schilling in IL-13, Dan Lungren in CA-3, Chip Cravaack in MN-8, etc. Assume the worst, and add in a few more that I've forgotten, and you're up around +10-15 for the Dems.

But GOP is set to pick up a number of seats too: Mike Ross's old seat in AR-4 is as good as gone. John Barrow in GA-12 should start packing. Heath Shuler 's old district in NC-11 and Mike McIntyre in NC-8 and Brad Miller in NC-13 -- all going GOP. Jim Matheson in UT-4 isn't guaranteed to lose, but he's the underdog against Mia Love in an election where Mitt Romney is the candidate, I think.

Ultimately I think that while it's actually possible in a best-case scenario that the GOP could GAIN seats, a safe and sober prediction would be something on the order of D+5 or so.

Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:23 PM (gwLty)

36 Pelostradamus also "guaranteed" they would hold in 2010.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at June 19, 2012 02:23 PM (ZzzNj)

37 The San Fran Chronicle has been running this BS for awhile now--

"Due to redistricting in Cali --Dems could taker back the House."

Trying to gin up the crowd about something' I suppose.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:23 PM (r2PLg)

38 27 She has nice boobs.
Posted by: Boy whose Dad told him if he couldn't say anything nice STFU. at June 19, 2012 02:20 PM (9TTOe)
======

replay the whittle trifecta tape re: madonna's nipple for a response to this comment

Posted by: demrule at June 19, 2012 02:24 PM (HOOye)

39 Shit

soothsayer had it and first-

1 Why?

Three reasons: turnout, turnout, turnout.

In the words of Paul Revere ringin those bells, "The Redcoats Democrats are coming!"

Posted by: soothsayer at June 19, 2012 02:09 PM (9Q7Nu)

********

It's ^ that in a "nutshell".

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:25 PM (r2PLg)

40 These fuckers must have one hell of an October Surprise up their sleeves.

Either that, or they're completely full of shit.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at June 19, 2012 02:26 PM (rX1N2)

41 The Dems are in pure "keep hope alive for the base" mode now. I thought it would take until at least the convention before they started trying to keep their voters from hanging themselves in desperation.

Nancy can read polling data just the same as any other professional politician. They know they are losing and losing badly. They have to say this kind of stuff just to try to keep it from being a complete blowout.

That's why Obama keeps throwing policy spaghetti against the wall to keep juicing certain segments of the Dem coalition. Immigration is just the latest trick and it won't be the last. I think they hoped that the nativists on the Right would go ape-shit and drive Romney off the economy and into this briar patch. So far, no dice. None of this is working and they know it.

The only issue is the economy. Period. Keep focused. Everything other than the economy is an attempt to distract us.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at June 19, 2012 02:26 PM (dcoFe)

42

O/T

Euro 2012 starting soon.

Anybody but France, today, pls.

Posted by: btw at June 19, 2012 02:26 PM (HOOye)

43 I don't see how, in light of all the conversations with myDim buds' , teh SCOAMF can win this election.

I have this gut feeling that the sleeping giant is awake and ready to take out a bit of vengeance against the Leftards this November. If teh Pubbies can take the Senate, we'll be sorta set for a little while. Maybe if the Tea Party candidates can get elected in greater numbers (like they did in a lot of the local and State races in 2010), it'll move the government to the right.

Oh, and I had a couple of Pubbie door-knockers here on Saturday with a personally signed flyer from the candidate to the State House. It was a short conversation, but I told them I was really looking forward to November. They left with a smile. Can't wait for the Dim doorknockers, they Will. Not. Be. Smiling.

I guarantee it.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at June 19, 2012 02:27 PM (d0Tfm)

44 Botox is a poison, which kills nerves.... did she just get another treatment, and perhaps the Dr. Jabbed a bit deep... like all the way into her brain?

Posted by: Romeo13 at June 19, 2012 02:27 PM (lZBBB)

45 Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:23 PM (gwLty)

Mike McIntyre is in NC-7 and not many are excited about the pro illegal establish republican asshat installed by the redistricting magic of the establishment asshat NC Senate.

Posted by: Boy whose Dad told him if he couldn't say anything nice STFU. at June 19, 2012 02:27 PM (9TTOe)

46 remember, in 2010, McBotox had a GOP challenger in her district. Maybe we can give her another challenge this year? Get a vegan, log cabin republican to go up against her.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 19, 2012 02:27 PM (QxSug)

47 I don't know that the FDA has done any studies on the effects of too many botox injections that close to the brain.

Piffft...a Brain ....Right

Posted by: Paladin at June 19, 2012 02:28 PM (bxc5w)

48 The october surprise? What could it be? A bigger collapse of the financial system? Obama wins the 400m hurdles in London?

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 19, 2012 02:28 PM (QxSug)

49 Darn the Sock

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:28 PM (9TTOe)

50 She said basically the same thing before the 2010 elections. This kind of rote cheerleading is like an autoresponder, it's not even serious enough to be called wishcasting.

Posted by: Gristle Encased Head at June 19, 2012 02:28 PM (+lsX1)

51 That Nancy chick is Crazy!

Posted by: Shithouse Rat at June 19, 2012 02:29 PM (A5DYE)

52 42

O/T

Euro 2012 starting soon.

Anybody but France, today, pls.
Posted by: btw at June 19, 2012 02:26 PM (HOOye)

******************

#$@

What the HELL were the Croats doing yesterday?

THe world is gone to hell when your hope to stop the Germans is--

Frickin" France.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:29 PM (r2PLg)

53 Obama wins the 400m hurdles in London?
Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 19, 2012 02:28 PM (QxSug)

Will he be holding a KOOL?

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:29 PM (9TTOe)

54

need a dedicated thread to Scott Brown's remark that he won't debate, if hosted by MSLSD.

nice

Posted by: btw at June 19, 2012 02:30 PM (HOOye)

55 #35: Good analysis and "conservative" estimate on the number of House seats gained by the GOP. I myself am continously cynical, but I'm guessing from this 4 1/2 month from the election perch, that we gain 5 - 10, gain the Senate by 1-2 and that Romney squeaks by with just enough votes to prevent recounting. (I am factoring in illegal votes, cheating votes and zombie votes, of course)

Posted by: Mr_Write at June 19, 2012 02:30 PM (VJUQK)

56 Ace, your post is spot-on in that there are these silly concepts being passed-off as unassailable, de facto, conventional wisdom concerning the electoral outcomes which just don't apply or exist.

First it was their Electoral College assumptions all based on 2008 as the baseline. "Most devisive country ever"... until it's electoral map time, then it's back to the electoral aberration that was 2008, a one-off event thanks to Hopium and McCain's age and campaign spending delta.

And this latest from Pelosi, I'll just chalk up to her not only being older than Sue the Tyrannosaurus rex, but looking worse.

Jonah Goldberg got it right with his last book title: The Tyranny of Cliche's: How Liberal's Cheat in the War of Ideas

Posted by: Uriah Heep at June 19, 2012 02:30 PM (JdSQO)

57 The economy isnt going to come around fast enough, at this point Obama is going to need a war. Iran, Syria, I'm sure they wish they had an evil fascist right wing thug to deposs somewhere.

Posted by: Jean at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (TjgR9)

58 >> I'm Pretty Confident Our Chances of Taking Back the House are Better Than 50/50

Are you serious? Are you serious?

Posted by: Andy at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (5Rurq)

59 Piffft...a Brain ....Right

Posted by: Paladin at June 19, 2012 02:28 PM (bxc5w)

It's of similar size and capacity of Philip J. Fry, but it's there.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (UK9cE)

60 What were the Croatians doing? Getting mauled in the box to no avail. That German ref wasn't going to give the Vatreni anything. I don't think Corluka would have been given that PK call even if Busquets had dislocated his left arm. Which nearly happened.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (dcoFe)

61 >>>Mike McIntyre is in NC-7 and not many are excited about the pro illegal
establish republican asshat installed by the redistricting magic of the
establishment asshat NC Senate.

Okay then, Utterly Predictable True Conservative Internet Warrior, vote for the Democrat then.

Seriously, every fucking comment you make, pretty much, is how this or that Republican "isn't conservative enough" or is "establishment." Do you have any other gear?

Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:32 PM (gwLty)

62 If we get too many more Republicans in the House it might capsize!

Posted by: Rep. Hank Johnson at June 19, 2012 02:32 PM (sbV1u)

63 Didn't we hear the same babble before the 2010 mid-terms?

Keep talking that way Nancy, it will ensure Romney and the Republicans will sweep you losers out of office.

Posted by: Anna Puma at June 19, 2012 02:32 PM (k4Ari)

64 Nancy Pelosi: Yeah, I'm Pretty Confident Our Chances of Taking Back the House are Better Than 50/50

Of course, this is the same batshit crazy loon that announced the Democrats won the 2008 Congressional elections.
Mister DeMille, Nancy is ready for her closeup now!

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 19, 2012 02:33 PM (Iaxlk)

65 Nancy Pelosi is the only person in history to have received a lobotomy by Botox. She heard she had wrinkles on her brain and wanted them gone.

True story.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter at June 19, 2012 02:33 PM (4df7R)

66 2010 elections, i meant

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (Iaxlk)

67 @jaketapper
INBOX: Mitt Romney will address the upcoming 103rd NAACP Annual Convention in Houston, TX.

Err, this needs some confirmation because I don't see that kind of thing working out well for anyone.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (famk3)

68 Do you have any other gear?Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:32 PM (gwLty)

Probably not.

Posted by: Magic 8-Ball at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (sbV1u)

69 >>>The U.S. central bank will most likely ease monetary policy

Ease the monetary policy? EASE THE MONETARY POLICY!? How much easier does monetary policy get from monetizing US debt, and loaning money at 0 interest? Are they going to use B-52's to carpet bomb the US with cash?!!! OUR F*ING MONETARY POLICY IS SO DAMN EASY THE FED's NUMBER APPEARS ON RESTROOM WALLS WITH "CALL FOR A GOOD TIME" ABOVE IT!!!!!
...
Inner peace.

Inner peace.

Inner peace.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (0q2P7)

70 Obama is going to need a war. Iran, Syria, I'm sure they wish they had an evil fascist right wing thug to deposs somewhere.
Posted by: Jean at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (TjgR9)
======

Well, there's this:

The United States is planning a significant military presence of 13,500 troops in Kuwait to give it the flexibility to respond to sudden conflicts in the region as Iraq adjusts to the withdrawal of American combat forces and the world nervously eyes Iran, according to a congressional report.

Posted by: btw at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (HOOye)

71 Nancy Pelosi is the only person in history to have
received a lobotomy by Botox. She heard she had wrinkles on her brain
and wanted them gone.

True story.

Posted by: MWR, Proud Tea(rrorist) Party Hobbit and ABO Supporter at June 19, 2012 02:33 PM (4df7R)

I personally would rather have a bottle infrontofme than a frontal lobotomy.

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:35 PM (UK9cE)

72 That German ref wasn't going to give the Vatreni anything. I don't think Corluka would have been given that PK call even if Busquets had dislocated his left arm. Which nearly happened.

Posted by: trumpetdaddy at June 19, 2012 02:31 PM (dcoFe)

************

Oy. Bastages.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:35 PM (r2PLg)

73 I have a good chance of losing a couple hundred pounds too. NOT!!!

Posted by: Meg McCain at June 19, 2012 02:36 PM (cSmuW)

74 Err, this needs some confirmation because I don't see that kind of thing working out well for anyone.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (famk3)

For GODSAKES man, don't say YOU PEOPLE!!!!!

Posted by: Ross Perot at June 19, 2012 02:36 PM (UK9cE)

75 What Jeff B said - it's going to be the same R lead as 2010 within the margin of error, so I will go R-5/+2. If this were a Dem wave election, like 2006 or 08, Pelosi would have a point. But this looks more like it's being fought on 2010 terms again.

Posted by: boulder toilet hobo at June 19, 2012 02:36 PM (nYRP9)

76 I personally would rather have a bottle infrontofme than a frontal lobotomy>>

and I would rather have Tulips on my organ than roses on my piano.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at June 19, 2012 02:37 PM (tf9Ne)

77 Speaking of getting "mauled in the box'--

Did you see that Greek guy get bent over?

jeebus.

Yellow card because he got tripped.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:37 PM (r2PLg)

78 The United States is planning a significant military presence of 13,500 troops in Kuwait to give it the flexibility to respond to sudden conflicts in the region as Iraq adjusts to the withdrawal of American combat forces and the world nervously eyes Iran, according to a congressional report. Posted by: btw at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (HOOye)

I wouldn't get too excited about that. We've had a presence in Kuwait since 1990. We've had combat equipment pre-positioned there almost that long too.

This only makes the de facto into the de jure

Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 19, 2012 02:37 PM (sbV1u)

79 Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:32 PM (gwLty)

I think it's a bad sign when your hash tag spells guilty..

Posted by: © Sponge at June 19, 2012 02:37 PM (UK9cE)

80 I was just thinking (and I know it's been mentioned before), how pathetic it must be for the Dims to have to rely on lies, pandering, thugs, divide-and-conquer and exaggeration in order to get votes. They got nuthin' else!

Posted by: Mr_Write at June 19, 2012 02:37 PM (VJUQK)

81 Inner peace.

Here. I shall nobly, gently and umm kindlierly (shut up that is a totally cromulent word) give you my secret to inner peace.

The key? Outer stomping. The more outer stomping you do, the greater your inner peace.

See. See, I'm a giver.

Posted by: alexthechick - SMOD 2012 at June 19, 2012 02:37 PM (VtjlW)

82 You Evangelicals are doing it wrong. You only practice your religion one hour a week, on Sunday, in the morning.

The rest of the week is all yours! Sheessssh.

Posted by: Nancy Pelosi at June 19, 2012 02:38 PM (ouP4s)

83 Like Petals Wilting
On a Humid Summer Day
Pelosi’s Piss Flaps

Posted by: CoolCzech at June 19, 2012 02:38 PM (Iaxlk)

84 OT, but will the Obama admin selectively choose not to prosecute this guy? He has only been AWOL for 28 years while living illegally in Sweden. Got married and had three children.

http://tinyurl.com/cl6fr8l

Posted by: Anna Puma at June 19, 2012 02:38 PM (k4Ari)

85
Seriously, every fucking comment you make, pretty much, is how this or that Republican "isn't conservative enough" or is "establishment." Do you have any other gear?
Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:32 PM (gwLty)

Yeah, Here's my gear Fuck You.

I have been busting my ass working for my county GOP pulling upsets all over out county in several different races only to be fucked in the ass by the establishment. I'll vote for what we have but I'll be good God Damned if I'm going to sit back and let simple choir preaching fucks like you tell me to all but shut the fuck up. I'm going to be in the face of these assholes like their noses. So fuck you blowhard PUSSY. Anytime anyplace.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:38 PM (9TTOe)

86 Breaking Pelosi's heart in November should be the goal of every proud red blooded redskin.

Posted by: Comanche Voter at June 19, 2012 02:39 PM (6USwK)

87 **This kind of rote cheerleading is like an autoresponder, it's not even serious enough to be called wishcasting.**

Yeah, whatever happened to Mike the auto-moonbat troll, son of Pelosi.

Posted by: joeindc44 says choom on fuckers at June 19, 2012 02:39 PM (QxSug)

88 The consensus is that the SC ruling for Obamacare is the week of the 25th. But, I wonder how they will time the ruling. Friday night dump? To alleviate the pressure; with a weekend of buffer from violence during the work week? Or, Monday? Or, any ole random day, when they are ready.
Posted by: pause at June 19, 2012 02:18 PM (HOOye)

------------------------------------------------

Rush seems to think it'll be the 25th also. BUT, I'm thinking that since this is such a humongous decision, they might just give us a drumroll on the 25th and hand the decision down on Tuesday.

Posted by: Soona at June 19, 2012 02:40 PM (58frh)

89 Roseanne Barr recently called Pelosi a "criminal" and a "reptile" in a couple of tweets.

Thanks Roseanne, now GDIAF.

Posted by: GnuBreed at June 19, 2012 02:40 PM (ccXZP)

90

O/T

Sterling Archer now works for the Secret Service

"“[They’ll say], ‘I kill people for a living,’ ‘the President of the
United States is alive because of me,’” the bartender said."

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/06/1 9/exclusive-secret-service-agents-partied-l ike-rock-stars-on-obamas-vineyard-vacation/#ixzz 1yFl6r5sZ

"Talk to these chicks, alright. Tell them how we’re really ISIS agents. They don’t believe me. Hello? Senor wingman?"

Posted by: imp at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (UaxA0)

91 83 Like Petals Wilting
On a Humid Summer Day
Pelosi’s Piss Flaps
Posted by: CoolCzech at June 19, 2012 02:38 PM (Iaxlk)
=====

good lord

heh.

Posted by: btw at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (HOOye)

92 Oldsailor I read something about how at AOSHQ we don't have anger anymore. Please resend as a love note. Thanks.

Posted by: blaster at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (HR5x9)

93 @jaketapper
INBOX: Mitt Romney will address the upcoming 103rd NAACP Annual Convention in Houston, TX.

Err, this needs some confirmation because I don't see that kind of thing working out well for anyone.

Posted by: weft cut-loop at June 19, 2012 02:34 PM (famk3)

Well, it's an indication that Mittens is either mega-pandering, mega-stupid, or willing to "fight like a Viking on enemy ground", so to speak. Hell if I know which of the three applies though.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (EFZec)

94 Those troops in Q8 arent an offensive option. They are a reaction force if Iran wants to broaden things while their asses are getting bombed.

Posted by: Jean at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (TjgR9)

95 Of course, we'll win! We started back in January last year stuffing ballots, so we oughta be good for November...

Posted by: Nancy Pelosi, Queen of the Harpies at June 19, 2012 02:42 PM (XvHmy)

96 Seriously, every fucking comment you make, pretty much, is how this or that Republican "isn't conservative enough" or is "establishment." Do you have any other gear?

As a longtime conservative Christian, I find it concerning that you dismiss the concerns of this fine concerned conservative. It is a well-known concerning fact that, although many politicians CLAIM to be conservatives, in fact, they are not concerned about the concerns that concerns true Concerned Christian Conservatives. I think you should not be so dismissive of these concerns. If our concerns are correct, it is a very concerning situation, and I am quite concerned about it.

Posted by: Concerned Conservative Expressing Concerning Concerns About Concern Trolls at June 19, 2012 02:42 PM (pcnpf)

97 >>>I think it's a bad sign when your hash tag spells guilty..

And amusingly enough, I'm posting from my local Circuit Court's library.

Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:42 PM (gwLty)

98 >>>but, I wonder how they will time the ruling. Friday night dump?

Supreme court almost always releases its decision packs on a Monday.
If they don't do it on the 25th, they are going to have to extend their session into 4th of July week.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose Lite! 98% Anger Free! at June 19, 2012 02:43 PM (0q2P7)

99 New thread.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:43 PM (r2PLg)

100 Please resend as a love note. Thanks. Posted by: blaster at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (HR5x9)

Can't we just get Pixy to create a template for that?

Wait....we still don't have ampersands so I guess I already have my answer.

Carry on.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 19, 2012 02:43 PM (sbV1u)

101 92 Oldsailor I read something about how at AOSHQ we don't have anger anymore. Please resend as a love note. Thanks.
Posted by: blaster at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (HR5x9)

Oh, OK. I'm sorry Jeff B. Your not a simple Choir Preaching fuck. You're a complicated Choir Preaching fuck.

Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:43 PM (9TTOe)

102 Delusions.

Election Night is going to gush with them. Literally. As in tears and everything.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 19, 2012 02:44 PM (B+qrE)

103 >>>Well, it's an indication that Mittens is either mega-pandering,
mega-stupid, or willing to "fight like a Viking on enemy ground", so to
speak. Hell if I know which of the three applies though.

He's not doing it to get African-American votes.

He's doing it to get squishy swing/independent/moderate-Dem votes. It's a signalling effect, saying basically "I intend to be President of ALL Americans, not just white people." Bush did the same thing in 2000 and 2004. It's smart politics, and honestly obligatory.

Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:44 PM (gwLty)

104 Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:43 PM (9TTOe)

I'm feelin' the love.

Let's all hug.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 19, 2012 02:44 PM (sbV1u)

105 AF

get &

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:45 PM (r2PLg)

106 I'm going to be in the face of these assholes like their noses.
Posted by: Oldsailors Poet, Team Dagny at June 19, 2012 02:38 PM (9TTOe)
=======

mark levin loves you!

Posted by: tomorrow, mark is back from vacation, yay. at June 19, 2012 02:45 PM (HOOye)

107 Only army guys can't figure it out.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:46 PM (r2PLg)

108 Well, it's an indication that Mittens is either mega-pandering, mega-stupid, or willing to "fight like a Viking on enemy ground", so to speak. Hell if I know which of the three applies though.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at June 19, 2012 02:41 PM (EFZec)

Open note to Mitt: "Remember the Stamford Bridge - wear iron underwear"

Posted by: The Robot Devil at June 19, 2012 02:46 PM (136wp)

109 >>>Supreme court almost always releases its decision packs on a Monday.
If they don't do it on the 25th, they are going to have to extend their session into 4th of July week.

They also recently reserved this Thursday, the 21st, for a decision release. Could come then, but I agree it'll probably be held over until the end.

Posted by: Jeff B. at June 19, 2012 02:46 PM (gwLty)

110 JeffB, this site might earn you a lookssee warrent

Posted by: Jean at June 19, 2012 02:46 PM (TjgR9)

111 What the hell? I am supposed to be UToLw, not pack and puff (pcnpf). Are we changing hashes all the time, now?

Posted by: Concerned Conservative Expressing Concerning Concerns About Concern Trolls at June 19, 2012 02:47 PM (pcnpf)

112 If ObamaCare is struck down by the SCOTUS, there could be a jump in economic activity.

There are companies in the private sector who are maintaining the size of the workforce in order to maintain their current health care benefits. If they add too many, they must revamp everything to federal specifications.

One "mid-cap" company recently made an acquistion with about 200 worker, so they laidoff 200 workers to balance the workforce size.

Posted by: Barney Frank at June 19, 2012 02:47 PM (e8kgV)

113

Obama is going to need a war. Iran, Syria, I'm sure they wish they had an evil fascist right wing thug to deposs somewhere.

Posted by: Jean

After the complete and utter denunciations of pandering about the gay marriage sop, BO will be hard pressed to gain any traction out of any military involvement.

It's far more likely that it backfires, like everything ShitMidas touches. More likely is that Putin is doing this as a "favor" to BO, who thinks the country will "rally round" his lame, narcissistic, anti-american, marxist self in a time of combat. Far more likely is that the country will want competence at the helm.

Posted by: imp at June 19, 2012 02:48 PM (UaxA0)

114 Uh oh.

Posted by: Damn Sockpuppet at June 19, 2012 02:48 PM (YmPwQ)

115 Only army guys can't figure it out.Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:46 PM (r2PLg)

Ha! We live in holes in the ground...that's why.

(No...really, how did you do that?)

Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 19, 2012 02:49 PM (sbV1u)

116 The Dems winning 12-17 seats means they're winning all the toss-ups and some of the leaners, that is, unless there's a slew of safe flips for the Dems (like CA-31 for the GOP) that aren't listed.

Posted by: JonathanEllis at June 19, 2012 02:51 PM (BdzEV)

117 Wasnt one of the Vikings strengths in their mobility allowed them to pick the time and place of the fight. That and being a foot taller and fourty pounds heavier.

Posted by: Jean at June 19, 2012 02:51 PM (TjgR9)

118 Wasnt one of the Vikings strengths in their mobility allowed them to pick the time and place of the fight. That and being a foot taller and fourty pounds heavier.
Posted by: Jean at June 19, 2012 02:51 PM (TjgR9)

That and the longbows

Posted by: The Jackhole at June 19, 2012 02:51 PM (nTgAI)

119 Ha! We live in holes in the ground...that's why.

(No...really, how did you do that?)

Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 19, 2012 02:49 PM (sbV1u)

*************

Your lack of-

&.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:52 PM (r2PLg)

120 It's how we track you.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:52 PM (r2PLg)

121 It's how we track you. Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:52 PM (r2PLg)

Then....where am I now?

Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 19, 2012 02:53 PM (sbV1u)

122 Mike at 69 had it right. I'm surprised no one else said anything about this:
"The U.S. central bank will most likely ease monetary policy when it
meets this week as recent data point to a worsening labor market and the
crisis in Europe intensifies, Goldman Sachs said.

"
Maybe they'll pay you to borrow money... it's really just about over.

Posted by: mallfly at June 19, 2012 02:59 PM (bJm7W)

123 At the time of typing?

This thread.

And on the toilet--most likely.

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:59 PM (r2PLg)

124 There ya' go again Ace. Bringing Math into the blog.

I read your link on Regression to the Mean. I didn't know Mathematician's could be such H8ers.

Posted by: a bag of hammers at June 19, 2012 02:59 PM (kqqGm)

125 It's the MREs

Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 03:00 PM (r2PLg)

126 And on the toilet--most likely. Posted by: tasker at June 19, 2012 02:59 PM (r2PLg)

Dammit! The tracker works!

Posted by: Sean Bannion at June 19, 2012 03:01 PM (sbV1u)

127 She is stupid.

Posted by: Thunderb at June 19, 2012 03:08 PM (Dnbau)

128 The general consensus among the lawyers at SCOTUSBLOG is that we will
not get healthcare until next week on Thursday which is the end of the
term.

Posted by: Vic at June 19, 2012 03:09 PM (YdQQY)

129 Farenthold and Grimm are safe. Turner got redistricted out and so did Bartlett, but Grimm keeps Shithole Island and Farenthold moved away from Mexico North.

Posted by: NewBrunswicker at June 19, 2012 03:35 PM (pwoSP)

130 Well, qe is good for the market…the market will rally on free dollars and debt devaluation. It's not entirely short-sided to argue that the entire appearance of economic "recovery" post-08-crisis was down to the fed's qe efforts.

Not only will a rallying market provide "good economic data" for dens to point to, it will also trick a lot of uninformed voters -- possibly misled by conservative free-market rhetoric that too often fails to distinguish between organic growth and fiscal policy bullshit (market = God!) -- into believing we are undergoing an economic recovery.

All types of capitalism, I hope we've learned since the now-entrenched private-gains/public-losses business model for those Too Big Too Fail. Problem is, not everyone was listening…and you don't have to pay attention to vote.

"The market is increasing. That means EVERYONE is doing better, right?" I think this sort of attitude provides some meaningful reason to be fearful as to the effects of a (temporarily!!!!!) rallying market on the November results.

Posted by: Jimi Ray at June 19, 2012 03:52 PM (FcOR4)

131 "All types of capitalism…are not automatically good", it should have read.

Posted by: Jimi Ray at June 19, 2012 03:53 PM (FcOR4)

132 I'm lollin-
my district was one of the fuckups by the Dems here in California.

They tried to make it more Democratic, but had an extra Democrat run (actually a decent guy, who has no regrets post-primary that he may have cost them a chance at a seat) AND decided to put Rialto and San Bernardino in the mix, with their notoriously blue tilt-and equally notorious lack of voting.

I get to pick between an existing conservative Republican congressman and another conservative Republican.

Posted by: CAC at June 19, 2012 04:15 PM (8kc5r)

133
132....I get to pick between an existing conservative Republican congressman and another conservative Republican.

In the general?
If so....then, heh....that's pretty cool, CAC.

Posted by: wheatie at June 19, 2012 04:25 PM (M2JTb)

134 Heed the Botox Nostradamus.

Posted by: Purp (@PurpAv) at June 19, 2012 08:13 PM (oHdHd)

135 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at June 19, 2012 08:16 PM (Xb3hu)

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