Why My Head Hurts (and I Don't Post Poll Threads These Days)

Polling numbers eight months ahead of election day rarely tell you the whole story.
Indeed, they will tell you conflicting stories as the state of American politics is fluid and always vulnerable to the unexpected.

Sometimes, the numbers turn downright schizophrenic.

Take, for example, Rasmussen.

I have a love-hate-hate-love-straight razor relationship with Rasmussen (and PPP, Marist, Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA, Zogby, Ipsos, PPIC, WNC, and every other company out there).

If you react to polling numbers as I do, like a child with attention deficit disorder, each new release is yet another big shiny thing. When the polls diverge, the usual response is confusion. When every poll contradicts the other, you may react like that guy who challenged Michael Ironside to a goofy faces contest in Scanners.

Sometimes, a polling firm will warp from a news source into your homless cousin who talks to the cats that aren't there. Take today's three releases, and tell me in 10 words or less what the hell are we looking at:

ELECTION 2012: THE CORE FOUR STATES: Obama leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)[beating Romney46-42].

President Obama's Approval Rating: 46/53, with 44% Strongly Disapproving.

President Obama trails Mitt Romney nationally by 2, 47-45, and leads Rick Santorum by 3, 47-44.

All released by the same firm within an hour of each other.
Now you see why I haven't done maps or polling threads in a while.

Posted by: CAC at 05:50 PM

Comments

1 you're looking at racism, straight up

Posted by: dudeinsantacruz at March 09, 2012 05:53 PM (+WPzY)

2
But Intrade has Obama up by 20%!!!!!!

Instead of reacting like an ADD'er, you could post the same dumb anti-troll joke that some AoS idiot has been shilling for 4 years now.

Posted by: In before the troll at March 09, 2012 05:55 PM (KZuD1)

3 CAC, I think you're going to have prepare yourself for the fact that we're going to lose. And we're going to lose huge.

--A Few Good Men

Posted by: Christina Hendricks' Mighty Jugs is now Andrew Breitbart's New Residence at March 09, 2012 05:55 PM (lSZoo)

4 Only the first poll showing Obama ahead is significant. Well that and Obama's pole which is lodged down my throat.

Posted by: Gerg at March 09, 2012 05:59 PM (KI/Ch)

5 The thing is, polls 2 and 3 agree with each other. The first can also be true, but it means that Obama is losing badly someplace they didn't poll.

Posted by: Meiczyslaw at March 09, 2012 06:01 PM (bjRNS)

6 If idiots re-elect SCOAMF again, we don't deserve to survive as a nation.

It kills me to even type that.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 09, 2012 06:01 PM (UOM48)

7 The first can also be true, but it means that Obama is losing badly someplace they didn't poll.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at March 09, 2012 06:01 PM (bjRNS)
The only way that all three can be equally true is if somehow Romney is kicking Obama's ass in Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Maine.Yet hes...losing in 4 states to the right of all of those (which by the way puts you at 271-267 electoral votes)

OR the 6% that "want someone else" are the right-leaning R's and Indies disastisfied with Romney but not wanting Obama. Then, the 4 states swing from 46-42 O over R to 48-46 R over O.
Again, I have my doubts.

Posted by: CAC at March 09, 2012 06:04 PM (Hs/Gi)

8 Took a call today from Sen. Casey's office asking if we were going to participate in fundraising for the PA senator. I asked the dweeb how our senator voted on yesterday's Keystone Pipeline vote and the dweeb didn't know!

WTF?

Posted by: Mountainmonkey at March 09, 2012 06:05 PM (uXdJq)

9 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at March 09, 2012 06:10 PM (7W3wI)

10
*sigh* ....Well, it's looking like we're going to have Mr. Inevitable for our nominee.

We need to start working on how to combat all that stuff that is going to be thrown at Romney, once it is official.... So, I will make a stab at it....

The Omg-he's-a-millionaire-1%er!-stuff. ---"So what? He has his own money, and won't be stealing it from the public purse." ....Or, "Unlike Obama, Romney wants you to be able to have money too".

The 'crazyMormon cultist' stuff. --- "The Mormon religion was made-in-the-USA. It's roots are here. At least we don't have to worry about his allegiance to any foreign country".

That's all I got right now. ....I will work moreon it.

And yeah, CAC....the world will go round a couple hundred times between now and November. ....So while these polls are momentarily interesting, there is no telling what will happen to affect them, between now and then.

Posted by: wheatie at March 09, 2012 06:23 PM (dauG/)

11 today's releases in 10 words or less:

It's March. Election's in November. Useless pollfapping for pollfapping's sake.

or

Most people polled have no clue what's for dinner tonight.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at March 09, 2012 06:26 PM (BvTwT)

12 I stopped reading poll stories a couple months ago. Oh wait, then why am I commenting on this one?

Posted by: I believe the lies I tell myself at March 09, 2012 06:37 PM (rz0yi)

13 My fucking head hurts anyway.

Posted by: arhooley at March 09, 2012 06:38 PM (NXYLH)

14 Demographics.

(See Census quick facts.)

So, you say what about Ohio?

State union membership levels depend on both the overall employment levels and union membership rates. The largest numbers of union members lived in California (2.4 million) and New York (1.9 million). Over half of the 14.8 million union members in the U.S. lived in just seven states (California, 2.4 million; New York, 1.9 million; Illinois, 0.9 million; Pennsylvania, 0.8 million; Michigan 0.7 million; and New Jersey and Ohio, 0.6 million each), though these states accounted for only about one- third of wage and salary employment nationally.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/union2.pdf

Also scroll down for the map, interesting.

Posted by: tasker at March 09, 2012 06:41 PM (XsnBd)

15 See why I keep arguing about PA not being in the bag?

La voila.

Posted by: tasker at March 09, 2012 06:44 PM (XsnBd)

16 Obama will lose. There's not much point in analyzing polling or push polls. The nation is in worse shape now and the projections of the nation getting stronger not weaker are down. The MFM will do what it does just like it did with Reagan/Carter. Americans see their families, friends, and neighbors and then they see the spin. Which do you think they're going to believe?

It's not who the GOP produces, it's who Obama has been seen to be.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at March 09, 2012 06:46 PM (eHIJJ)

17 I don't buy it.

Posted by: rectal exam at March 09, 2012 06:46 PM (O7ksG)

18 Are you better off than you were 4 years ago? No? Well, how about Rush Limbaugh calling your daughters sluts and whores? I bet you'd like that to stop, wouldn't you?

Posted by: Warden at March 09, 2012 06:54 PM (HzhBE)

19 Do not question the Obergruppenführer.

Posted by: toby928© at March 09, 2012 08:03 PM (GTbGH)

20 With the very good jobs numbers coming out every month, Obama's numbers will only go up.

And what happened to gas prices hurting the President? When does that happen?

Posted by: Greg at March 09, 2012 08:05 PM (J3Ovp)

21 And when do I stop deep-throating Obama? When does that happen?

Never, that's when.

Posted by: Gerg at March 09, 2012 08:28 PM (MTzcp)

22 CAC - I feel your pain.. my trolling on libtard sites is rather easy because of the wildly fluctuating polls. Anyone can prove their thesis if they can cherry pick a poll.

They are all worthless.

Nobody wants to admit they will vote for Romney. So they lie.. kinda.. it is wishful thinking that some white knight will ride out and save their day. Morons.

And the libtards who won't even bother voting say they will vote for Obambi.

But that's the way it is.. and it ain't gonna change until the convention.

My prediction? Romney wins electoral votes and Obama wins popular. The libtards don't take this one sitting down and fucking riot. but then, I do love science fiction and stories of a dystopian near future with city folks pitted against rural ones. Cry havoc, and let slip the dogs of war! Or, maybe I am just getting bored in my old age.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at March 09, 2012 09:43 PM (UTq/I)

23 I'll give $ome hint$ $oon.

Posted by: Ra$$mu$$en at March 10, 2012 12:43 AM (2IGbS)

24 6
If idiots re-elect SCOAMF again, we don't deserve to survive as a nation.

It kills me to even type that.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 09, 2012 06:01 PM (UOM4

I'll die with you dear. But then, Andrew lives....

at least until the 1st Tuesday of November.
And he will.

Posted by: eureka! at March 10, 2012 12:49 AM (2IGbS)

25 Polls this early are a complete crock.

Just ask President John Kerry (up 8% over Bush in March 2004) and congratulate President Carter on his 2nd term (way ahead of the "unelectable, wild-man, troglodyte right-wing hate-monger" Ronald Reagan in March 1980).

Plus if gas goes up another $1 a gallon, nothing else will matter anyway.

Don't waste your time.

Posted by: Chester White at March 10, 2012 08:36 AM (F3f0k)

26 I eat feces and crap out KFC
Posted by: Just a shithead at March 10, 2012 01:17 PM (gnViO)
Ah. Much better. And more believable.

Posted by: CAC at March 10, 2012 01:43 PM (W0gE7)

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