Mythbusters: The Monty Hall Problem

Pet theories department.

I don't watch Mythbusters, but this should be a good episode. The Monty Hall problem is fascinating. It's a mindbender, and it reveals something important about perception. It's on tonight at 9:00 Eastern on Discovery Channel.

One explanation for the Monty Hall problem is "working memory overload." According to that theory, The Monty Hall problem requires us to hold too many things in our heads at once, and we end up dumping some before the problem is solved. Thus, at the end of the problem when we decide on a course of action, we're not plugging in all the facts.

That's the gist of it. Now imagine that applied to, say, politics. Notice how we on the right are presented with the opportunity to make the same argument over and over that runs along these basic lines: Someone on the left has said or done something that is inconsistent with his or her prior acts or statements. Now, everybody does that from time to time, but people on the left seem to do it endlessly. Proof? Think of how often we find ourselves pointing out media double standards.

Here's another example: Remember when Governor Christie was confronted by a teacher at a town hall meeting? On the one hand for the teacher, it was all about the money. That was her big concern. But. On the other hand, it was all about the children. That was her motivation. She was in it for the love of teaching. While in either state of mind, the teacher seemed to have no awareness of the other state. It was as if there were two different people standing there from moment to moment.

I recall the MBM repeatedly using the word "polarizing" to describe the Arizona immigration law a while back--from memory, a law that was supported by 70%. I do not recall them ever using the word "polarizing" to describe Obamacare. I hope that's not just a case of confirmation bias on my part. Another example: A while back, a Mediaite journalist referred to Sarah Palin's kids as "props." There will never be a time when this same journalist refers to President Obama's children as props. Because, different.

One last example. Governor Christie himself brought up a nice example of a double standard in another town hall meeting when he talked the crowd about tone. The head of one of the teachers unions had encouraged his members to pray for his death. That union schmuck was not fired, and there was no outcry on the part of teachers.

Of course, the examples are endless. Pointing them out is a regular feature here at the HQ. It's evergreen. For the most part, I don't believe these people see themselves doing it, and I think working memory overload might be the reason why.

At the point of deciding about a given fact situation, a person's general political stance becomes the basis of of that decision--not all the material facts that might have a bearing on the issue. This is because keeping those general forms in mind is much easier. "I don't recall what I said/reported yesterday about the identical situation, vis-a-vis the Other Group, so I'm going to phrase it completely differently today. Besides, I like this group." So this ballpark-it way of deciding works as a solution to working memory overload, but it also serves-up endless opportunities for rebuttal.

I know Ace has some different ideas about this stuff. Maybe he'll talk about that soon.

Follow me on Twitter.

Update: Good grief, that was weak. I put a better explanation of the problem and the solution below the fold.

Posted by: rdbrewer at 07:31 PM



Comments

1 I like chocolate.

Posted by: lowandslow at November 23, 2011 07:36 PM (GZitp)

2
Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of miserable failure.
(in before steevy)

Posted by: SUPERUNKNOWN at November 23, 2011 07:37 PM (L4G4s)

3 I have to keep twack of so many things, I often forget that I'm actally straight instead of gay. Happens all the time.

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at November 23, 2011 07:39 PM (SYrAh)

4 The skinny one on mythbusters is a fucking truther. screw him, and screw his show.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 07:40 PM (6IReR)

5 What channel is it on?

Posted by: Zakn at November 23, 2011 07:41 PM (zyaZ1)

6 Oh it's not on the actual Montey Hall problem. Nevermind. I don't watch it either

Posted by: Zakn at November 23, 2011 07:41 PM (zyaZ1)

7 I compare my brain to a computer hard drive that's full: if I want to put onebit of information on it, anotherbit of information has to be deleted.
As for your example of the teacher who confronted the Round Mound of Fiscal Soundness, it'sentirely possible she has more than one personality.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 07:43 PM (d0Tfm)

8 It's only a good Mythbusters when Kari wears a selection of tight revealing tops.

I don't get how the "Monty Hall" problem is a "myth", though. It's just math.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 07:45 PM (DMIs1)

9 Kittens Dressed As Pilgrims?

Posted by: soothie at November 23, 2011 07:46 PM (yhYn1)

10 I compare my brain to a computer hard drive that's full: if I want to
put onebit of information on it, anotherbit of information has to be
deleted.

Wasn't that a Married with Children episode?

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 07:46 PM (DMIs1)

11 The Monty Hall problem.

So I got a guy really POd at me for pointing out the fallacy.

At first the contestant has to pick 1 of 3 doors. He picks. Monty then removes an unpicked door leaving 2.

The Monty Hall problem is "Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?"

Mathematicians go ape over this, but here is the fallacy.

Your first choice is between 3, 1 in 3.
Your second choice is between 2, 1 in 2.

Monty does not remove a winning door, so you truly have a 50/50 choice in the second instance. But you don't own that door, you are truly making a second 50/50 choice.

But Vos Savant says you should always switch. But that is the fallacy. You aren't switching. You are making a second choice, a 50/50 choice in that second instance. But the "results" support Vos Savant. Why?

Well I think clearly it's the human factor. With Monty Hall leaning over you everyone forgets... Monty knows. So I look forward to seeing what method Mythbusters uses to remove that element.

Posted by: DANEgerus at November 23, 2011 07:46 PM (e3/KR)

12 Nah Ace. You give them too much credit.
Most are stupid, all are greedy and some are evil.

Posted by: Pecos, All Perry, all the time at November 23, 2011 07:46 PM (2Gb0y)

13 The skinny one on mythbusters is a fucking truther. screw him, and screw his show.
Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 07:40 PM (6IReR)
Ayup. Plus their methodology sucks.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 07:47 PM (95++m)

14 I'd argue it is simpler.

The left has one principle - that which advances the power of the left is good, that which diminishes it is bad.

Working from this presumption, all else makes sense.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2011 07:47 PM (3aXbg)

15 It's on Discovery Channel.

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 07:48 PM (UfxxJ)

16 Sometimes I simply have the Jack Daniel's problem.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at November 23, 2011 07:49 PM (dV45O)

17 And the broad's a vegetarian. Which means no bacon. So screw her too.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 07:50 PM (6IReR)

18 Can I win a brand new Gremlin?

Posted by: fluffy at November 23, 2011 07:51 PM (O6q63)

19 The NOVA during the same hour sounds better. It's cosmology so fingers crossed that it won't be full of moonbattery nonsense.

Posted by: Bob Undead Saget at November 23, 2011 07:51 PM (dBvlk)

20 Let me explain the solution to Monty Hall more succinctly:

If your strategy is no switching, then you must guess right the first time: 1 out of 3 chance of winning.

If your strategy is switching, then you must guess wrong the first time: 2 out of 3 chance of winning.

Assuming Monty doesn't sweeten the pot or play other games, you should switch every time.

The easiest way to see this is if there are 100 doors and one prize. You pick a door, Monty opens up 98 non-prize-winning doors. Should you switch then? You betcha!

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 07:51 PM (73tyQ)

21 ometimes I simply have the Jack Daniel's problem.

Too much, or not enough?

Posted by: pko Strany at November 23, 2011 07:51 PM (RJOgX)

22 So screw her too.

Gladly.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 07:51 PM (DMIs1)

23 Wasn't that a Married with Children episode?
Could've been, I've never seen that show. It's a downright handy excuse, especially at my age.
I can't waituntil Ireach Full Curmudgeon.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 07:51 PM (d0Tfm)

24 Note that all the 'example' solutions you will see posted on the internet claim, in one way or another, that the 1st 1 in 3 chance impacts the 2nd 1 in 2 choice. I can prove it doesn't.

Roll 1 dice. 1 in 6 chance of a 6. Roll it again, 1 in 6 chance of a 6. No matter how many times you roll a single legal 6 sided die you have a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 6.

But... if the problem was what are your chances of rolling 2 6's in a row, then the probabilities encompass both rolls don't they.

So pick a door, any door, and then... and then... you make the 50/50 choice of doors. All the rest is magic.

Posted by: DANEgerus at November 23, 2011 07:52 PM (e3/KR)

25 Wait, which mythbuster guy is a truther? Never heard that claim before.

Posted by: Clubber Lang at November 23, 2011 07:53 PM (BXqkH)

26 Is this where I poop or do I need to find a curb?

Posted by: occupy Ace protester at November 23, 2011 07:53 PM (qjUnn)

27 I can't waituntil Ireach Full Curmudgeon.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 07:51 PM (d0Tfm)
So you're pushing 70 from the wrong side?

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 07:53 PM (95++m)

28 I thought the Monty Hall Problem was trying to make a deal to screw three women at once?

Posted by: andycanuck at November 23, 2011 07:54 PM (/VGq8)

29 In an interview, the Mythbusters duo revealed themselves to be zealous, pinwheel-eyed Obama-philes.
They often test things that could be settled with two minutes pencil work on the back of an envelope.
How smart can they be?

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at November 23, 2011 07:54 PM (SYrAh)

30 I thought the Monty Hall Problem was trying to make a deal to screw three women at once?

I thought the Monty Hall Problem was trying to make a deal to screw one woman in an uncomfortable place.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 07:55 PM (DMIs1)

31 Kittens Dressed As Pilgrims?
So why are you holding out? Monty loves that shit. He'll pick you, for sure!

Posted by: fluffy at November 23, 2011 07:55 PM (O6q63)

32 They often test things that could be settled with two minutes pencil work on the back of an envelope.

That I won't blame them for, they do have a show to produce.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 07:55 PM (73tyQ)

33 Remember the movie Scanners?

Yeah, like that.

Posted by: Clutch Cargo at November 23, 2011 07:55 PM (Qxdfp)

34 Oh, and I was told there would be no math.

Posted by: fluffy at November 23, 2011 07:56 PM (O6q63)

35 Wait, which mythbuster guy is a truther? Never heard that claim before.
Posted by: Clubber Lang at November 23, 2011 07:53 PM (BXqkH)
They're both flaming leftards.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 07:57 PM (95++m)

36 Assuming Monty doesn't sweeten the pot or play other games, you should switch every time.
I'd argue it doesn't matter.

When you first pick, there is a one in three chance you pick the door with the prize.

When Hall removes one door, there is now a one in two chance it is behind *either* door. So change or stay it doesn't matter.

Unless you presume Hall knows and has a tell, then use that.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2011 07:58 PM (3aXbg)

37 Would this be "putting weight" on certain issues? Abortion is 10% of my candidate criteria, whereas taxes = 70%.
Are you saying ppl don't prioritize info to make a decision?

Posted by: hutch1200 at November 23, 2011 07:58 PM (Nt3Jp)

38 So you're pushing 70 from the wrong side?
Pretty much. Now, get off my lawn.
How's that? No, wait. GTF off my lawn!
Hmm, needs more inflection, brb, got to practice in front of a mirror.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 07:59 PM (d0Tfm)

39 Memory overload ? You are waaaay over thinking this.

Leftards don't give a shit if they contradict themselves. They want power, and they don't care what it takes. They justify that they 'care' more and are 'good people'.

But they do and say whatever they want to get what they want: control.

Posted by: Log Cabin at November 23, 2011 07:59 PM (1e6Xt)

40 Is this the Monty Doom post?
I thought datstuff got posted in the morning when I was off busting my hump?

Posted by: Delta Smelt at November 23, 2011 08:01 PM (dV45O)

41 Neither of the two main hosts on Mythbusters are truthers. In fact, they've banned the topic of 9/11 trutherism on their forum.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:02 PM (e7bui)

42 I read somewhere that Monty Hall knocked up Lovely Carol behind Curtain Number Two.

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 23, 2011 08:03 PM (niZvt)

43 Hmm, needs more inflection, brb, got to practice in front of a mirror.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 07:59 PM (d0Tfm)
Fair enough. I have a bottle of Old Number 7 and a home-made pumpkin roll I'm dedicating to you.
Incidentally, I call that breakfast.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:04 PM (95++m)

44 Neither of the two main hosts on Mythbusters are truthers. In fact, they've banned the topic of 9/11 trutherism on their forum.
Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:02 PM (e7bui)
Probably because they got their asses handed to them.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:06 PM (95++m)

45 Heh -- Ace gets a reference in the Wikipedia description of the Monty Hall Problem.

Posted by: ChipW at November 23, 2011 08:07 PM (f14vX)

46 Probably because they got their asses handed to them.
Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:06 PM (95++m)
WINNAH!!
Butt they like that sort of thing.

Posted by: hutch1200 at November 23, 2011 08:07 PM (Nt3Jp)

47 When Hall removes one door, there is now a one in two chance it is behind *either* door. So change or stay it doesn't matter

No, it does if you assume that Monty will always show you a non-prize door, no matter what.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 08:07 PM (73tyQ)

48 Well at least it's not a Monty DOOM problem. An evening hiatus is the only thing keeping me from drowning myself in Valu-Rite.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at November 23, 2011 08:08 PM (eHIJJ)

49 The lady or the tiger?

Posted by: Bertram Cabot Jr. at November 23, 2011 08:08 PM (XytS0)

50 100 doors and 1 winner.

I have a 1/100 choice of doors.
Monty then has a 98/99 informed choice of doors.

I can keep my 1/100 guess or take his 98/99 informed choice.

Switch.

I was wrong, I concede to 'AmishDude' and thank you, that one has made me crazy for years.

Posted by: DANEgerus at November 23, 2011 08:09 PM (e3/KR)

51 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at November 23, 2011 08:13 PM (7WJOC)

52 Where the fuck you been, hutch?

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:14 PM (95++m)

53 19 It's cosmology so fingers crossed that it won't be full of moonbattery nonsense.___________
I thought moonbattery was what happened when an OWSer assaulted someone. Especially that one guy what was throwing batteries at the cops; that was moonbattery assault with a battery.

Posted by: Anachronda at November 23, 2011 08:14 PM (xGZ+b)

54 Mythbuster Jamie Hyneman is working with the Office of Naval Research to develop lighter, more effective armor for vehicles used in Afghanistan and Iraq. This his is second project with the U.S. armed forces.

http://tinyurl.com/7gox4b2

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:15 PM (e7bui)

55 If your strategy is no switching, then you must guess right the first time: 1 out of 3 chance of winning.

If your strategy is switching, then you must guess wrong the first time: 2 out of 3 chance of winning.

That, right there, is it in a nutshell. The only way not switching works is if you were right on your initial pick, which had a one in three chance of being right.

Posted by: Andy at November 23, 2011 08:15 PM (XG+Mn)

56 When Hall removes one door, there is now a one in two chance it is behind *either* door. So change or stay it doesn't matter.That's where you're wrong - the odds are not the same for the two doors. I think Amish explained it very well with:
If your strategy is no switching, then you must guess right the first time: 1 out of 3 chance of winning.If your strategy is switching, then you must guess wrong the first time: 2 out of 3 chance of winning.But we deceive ourselves by thinking that we know less than we do. On the surface it seems like Monty didn't tell us anything: I knew that at least one of the two that I didn't pick wasn't a winner, and he merely confirmed that with his reveal. But we know much more than that: we know the rules of the game. And assuming a fair game, and with only three options, you can write out on a piece of paper all possible combinations of where the winning door is, what initial choice you make, and what door is opened for you. If you run through all those combinations, you will find that after the reveal there are more pathways that lead to the other door being the winner than there are to your initial choice. So your odds improve by switching.

Posted by: somebody else, not me at November 23, 2011 08:17 PM (7EV/g)

57 Adam is a truther?

Posted by: steevy at November 23, 2011 08:17 PM (7WJOC)

58 I saw an interview with the Mythbusters vegan woman, Keri Byron, who said that since she's been on the show she's become a huge supporter of the 2nd Amendment.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:21 PM (e7bui)

59 Unless you presume Hall knows and has a tell, then use that.

Monty knows. He never opens the door that reveals the prize. Therefor, since (a) you had a 67% chance of being wrong when you chose your door, and (b) this means that the remaining doors are 67% likely to hold the prize, and (c) Monty never opens the door with the prize, then (d) 67% of the time, the door Monty did not open has the prize.

Another way of looking at it: 67% of the time, the prize is in one of the two doors you did not choose. Monty is giving you the option of choosing both of those doors, instead of your single door. Right? Because even if you assume Monty does not know, then some of the time he's going to open the door with the prize--you can choose that door, knowing you have the prize. And some of the time he's going to open the door without the prize, and those two doors are still twice as likely to hold the prize as your single door.

Or just look at the example of 100 doors above.

Posted by: Stephen Price Blair at November 23, 2011 08:22 PM (7Ahkq)

60 Where the fuck you been, hutch?
Making the Thanksgiving Meth. Did ya get yours?
BTW on The Price is Right....Always take the advice from the drunken, screaming guy dressed as Tarzan.

Posted by: hutch1200 at November 23, 2011 08:22 PM (Nt3Jp)

61 Do vegan chicks swallow?

Posted by: steevy at November 23, 2011 08:24 PM (7WJOC)

62
So... if you promise me unicorns that shit skittles and tell me the rich will buy the unicorn feed and tell the rich that buying unicorn feed will help stop man made global warming because they can sell the skittles to the Chinese in exchange for gerbils to stick up everyone ass...have the terrorists won?

Posted by: Stinky Occupy Hippie at November 23, 2011 08:26 PM (gppu7)

63 Making the Thanksgiving Meth. Did ya get yours?
Yep! Thanks for hiding it in the cranberries.
Nobody checks the cranberries.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:26 PM (95++m)

64 Memories and perception are common themes in science fiction.

The 4th door; bribe Monty Hall.

Posted by: Door1 at November 23, 2011 08:27 PM (h6XiD)

65 Mythbusters are the suck.

Posted by: Ronster at November 23, 2011 08:28 PM (/c/ec)

66 Adam is a truther?

No.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:28 PM (e7bui)

67 But how does this help me find the pron I was really looking for?

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston training for the ONT mudwrestling match at November 23, 2011 08:28 PM (ijjAe)

68 Fair enough. I have a bottle of Old Number 7 and a home-made pumpkin roll I'm dedicating to you.
That sounds like a great breakfast. The Daughter of Satan's (my ex) sister had a really good recipe for pumpkin roll, but thatwas lost alongwith the house, BackwardsBoy2, and everything else.
And have you tried theWild Turkey American Honey? I recommended that to Vic as his porch rocker lubricant.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 08:29 PM (d0Tfm)

69 69 He is an Obama supporter though,which is almost as stupid.

Posted by: steevy at November 23, 2011 08:29 PM (7WJOC)

70 I wish I knew where I could find some good inexpensive running shoes. That's the single most important issue in my life right now.

Posted by: Trimegistus at November 23, 2011 08:30 PM (2B0Xn)

71 They Mythbusters gang lost me rather quickly. They sought to answer the question as to whether a snapped cable can really decapitate a person. (Was that ever really a question?). So, they used a pig carcass and pulled the cable taught....SNAP!....it swung around and hit the pig dead center in the middle of the length of cable.

Their conclusion: It is a myth.

They ever even attempted to set up the situation where the end of the cable would strike the pig carcass.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 08:30 PM (piMMO)

72 Adam is a truther?No.
Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:28 PM (e7bui)
He's a Socialist, so yes.
Just like Llarry is.
Denial, it what's for mid-morning brunch.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:31 PM (95++m)

73 I wish I knew where I could find some good inexpensive running shoes.
That's the single most important issue in my life right now.
I envy you.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 08:31 PM (piMMO)

74 Sorry, not buying it.

But then, I'm generally sick of excuse after excuse for not doing the right thing. If your morality is so situational that you have to keep track of when wrong is wrong and when it's right, you are unfit for the basic rights and responsibilities of a republic.

Posted by: AoSHQ's DarkLord© sez F--- Nevada! at November 23, 2011 08:31 PM (Fs7RJ)

75 Next time I'll hire a man to walk ahead of my posts yelling "Sarcasm comin'!"

Posted by: Trimegistus at November 23, 2011 08:32 PM (2B0Xn)

76 Correct me if I'm wrong, but did not the Mythbusters do an episode debunking the 9/11 conspiracy theories?

Posted by: Chris at November 23, 2011 08:33 PM (w6miV)

77 OK, y'all. I'm fading fast. Got a turkey to smoke at first light tomorrow, and it's time to watch DWS with B'Gal (only fair since she watches football and NASCAR with me), which is nice.
And yes, I'd have to be surgically removed from Karina Smirnoff, just in case she asks...

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 08:33 PM (d0Tfm)

78 Posted by: BackwardsBoy at November 23, 2011 08:33 PM (d0Tfm)
Have a good one!

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:35 PM (95++m)

79 Flip Floppers

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 08:37 PM (w9vb/)

80 #75, I think many carrier crews, construction guys, and various other naval operators could tell them horror stories. A high tension cable snapping, even in a piano, is enough to do a world of damage to you.

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston training for the ONT mudwrestling match at November 23, 2011 08:37 PM (ijjAe)

81 Mythbusters are bunch of left-wing assholes.

I'd learn more from watching Katie Couric's colonoscopy.

Posted by: Ed Anger - Certified Kos Kid at November 23, 2011 08:38 PM (7+pP9)

82 I would really enjoy the Best of Dennis Miller on BOR tonight if only BOR was edited out of the clips.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 08:39 PM (piMMO)

83 I would really enjoy the Best of Dennis Miller on BOR tonight if only BOR was edited out of the clips.
I am strangly watching the same thing and have a similar thought. His crack about circumsizing goldfish in San Fransico was da funney.

Posted by: Mallamutt, RINO President for Life at November 23, 2011 08:40 PM (OWjjx)

84 If you run through all those combinations, you will find that after the reveal there are more pathways that lead to the other door being the winner than there are to your initial choice. So your odds improve by switching.
Somebody else is right. There is a higher probability that the remaining door is the right door: so switch.

Posted by: carolina at November 23, 2011 08:41 PM (wCa6s)

85
At the point of deciding about a given fact situation, a person's general political stance becomes the basis of of that decision--not all the material facts that have might have a bearing on the issue.
This is the part that interests me. But I think the "general political stance" is usually derived from negative experiences with authority figures. I could swear that 90% of progressive policies are just reactions against the time "mean old daddy wouldn't let me go the party that one time." It's all reactionary from that point on.

Posted by: rfichoke at November 23, 2011 08:41 PM (SYhX2)

86 A high tension cable snapping, even in a piano, is enough to do a world of damage to you.
Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston training for the ONT mudwrestling match at November 23, 2011 08:37 PM (ijjAe)
That's true. The low A key string in a baby grand piano carries 2,000 lbs.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:43 PM (95++m)

87
He's a Socialist, so yes.Just like Llarry is.
Denial, it what's for mid-morning brunch.Yes, I'm a socialist! I've never voted for a Democrat; I want my taxes lowered; I want far fewer government regulations; I oppose ObamaCare; I oppose the Dodd-Frank Act; I oppose cutting the defense budget; I'm a gun owner; I oppose deficit spending; I support far-ranging reform of Medicare and Socila Security...
Leftists call people racists to try and shut them up; rightists call them socialists. People who can't think and who hate disagreement always resort to name calling. It's what idiots do.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:45 PM (e7bui)

88
I took the box that Carol was standing in front of and ended up with 6 goats.

Posted by: Guy What Has Wide Lapelled Green Rayon Leisure Suit On at November 23, 2011 08:46 PM (jucos)

89 Neither of the two main hosts on Mythbusters are truthers. In fact, they've banned the topic of 9/11 trutherism on their forum.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:02 PM (e7bui)

Banning it off their forums doesn't mean they aren't truthers. They were probably tired of being made to look like the retarded fuckwagons they are.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 08:47 PM (6IReR)

90 I could swear that 90% of progressive policies are just reactions against the time "mean old daddy wouldn't let me go the party that one time." It's all reactionary from that point on.
------
Things look a lot different after 'the progressive' becomes the "mean old daddy" themselves. Some of them even get a clue.

Posted by: carolina at November 23, 2011 08:47 PM (wCa6s)

91 Yes, I'm a socialist!
Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:45 PM (e7bui)

'Nuff said.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:49 PM (95++m)

92 Banning it off their forums doesn't
mean they aren't truthers. They were probably tired of being made to
look like the retarded fuckwagons they are.

Yeah, they're probably socialists! Especially the one working with the military to create better armor. Fucking socialist!

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:50 PM (e7bui)

93 Thanks for sharing, please keep an update about this info. love to read it more. i like this site too much.

Posted by: Culo by Mazzucco ePub at November 23, 2011 08:50 PM (wUW/i)

94 'Nuff said.

Perfect. A cretinous non-response from a cretin. Didn't see that coming at all!

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:50 PM (e7bui)

95 I can't waituntil Ireach Full Curmudgeon.

There already. Go ahead, give me a try. Curmudgeon is easy; lovable curmudgeon is the tough one. Whippersnappers.

Posted by: L Rob in OK at November 23, 2011 08:51 PM (7yvLv)

96 I think many carrier crews, construction guys, and various other naval
operators could tell them horror stories. A high tension cable snapping,
even in a piano, is enough to do a world of damage to you.

Railroads and amusement parks would also beg to differ.

It was just so half-hearted and so disingenuous of them to conduct the experiment the way they did. I am not scientist, but even I understood that the energy had been diverted to the end of the cable. They didn't even make an honest attempt.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 08:51 PM (piMMO)

97 When did the Myth Busters' fan club president join AoSHQ ?

Posted by: grease monkey at November 23, 2011 08:52 PM (VSWPU)

98
Yeah, they're probably socialists! Especially the one working with the military to create better armor. Fucking socialist!


Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:50 PM (e7bui)

Didn't say anything about them being socialists. I said the skinny was one a truther, and I heard it from his own fucking mouth.
Now, go get your fuckin shinebox.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 08:52 PM (6IReR)

99
Pretty well caught up with politics and the general state of the world this week. For at least 3 days,anyway.

The house smells tremendous thanks to the pumpkin and apple pies just out of the oven plus there's 2 doe we cut up yesterday. And ate the tenderloin during the project. Good times.

So for a bit, it's gonna be football and eat yourself into a coma.

Posted by: irongrampa at November 23, 2011 08:52 PM (SAMxH)

100
So the Monty Hall problem is...wait, I forgot...hey squirrel.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 23, 2011 08:53 PM (JYheX)

101 On second thought, not tonight. I'm in too good a mood with four days off and a nice meal waiting for me tomorrow (if Mrs L Rob comes through, as she always does).

Posted by: L Rob in OK at November 23, 2011 08:53 PM (7yvLv)

102 Didn't say anything about them being socialists. I said the skinny was one a truther, and I heard it from his own fucking mouth.

Go ahead and post a link to it. Should be easy to find.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:53 PM (e7bui)

103 Perfect. A cretinous non-response from a cretin. Didn't see that coming at all!
Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:50 PM (e7bui)
I was just repeating your own words, douchebag.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:53 PM (95++m)

104 rightists call them socialists.

"Socialist" is not a general pejorative. It has a specific meaning. For instance,

working with the military to create better armor.
Does not make him not a socialist.

By the way, is this an altruistic venture or does he get paid?

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 08:54 PM (73tyQ)

105 Go ahead and post a link to it. Should be easy to find.


Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:53 PM (e7bui)

Saw what I saw, the fact that your panties are in a twist is your problem champ, not mine.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 08:54 PM (6IReR)

106 Evenin' irongramps. Sounds like we're on the same agenda. Life is good.

Posted by: L Rob in OK at November 23, 2011 08:54 PM (7yvLv)

107 Unclefacts sure does seem to know a lot about what "probably" happened on the myth busters forums.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 08:55 PM (ZUFNn)

108 irongrampa, you should fire up your Road Runner and squeal the tires to make the celebration complete.

Posted by: Ronster at November 23, 2011 08:55 PM (/c/ec)

109 30" I thought the Monty Hall Problem was trying to make a deal to screw three women at once?"

I thought the Monty Hall Problem was trying to make a deal to screw one woman in an uncomfortable place.
Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 07:55 PM (DMIs1)

I'll go with Squeakhole Number Two, Monty!

Posted by: Herminator Cain at November 23, 2011 08:56 PM (niZvt)

110 Ronster, substitute GTO for Roadrunner and I'm right there. Danged good idea!

Posted by: L Rob in OK at November 23, 2011 08:56 PM (7yvLv)

111 107
Unclefacts sure does seem to know a lot about what "probably" happened on the myth busters forums.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 08:55 PM (ZUFNn)

I made a supposition based on my suspicions of what probably happened on the forums. What the fuck is your point?

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 08:56 PM (6IReR)

112 Or did you just feel the need to fellate larry?

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 08:57 PM (6IReR)

113 Off, Herman sock

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 23, 2011 08:57 PM (niZvt)

114 Obama er I mean Romney is saying he is the only one who could beat Obama now per allahpander. Lol, can't believe newt has him scared

Posted by: Flapjackmaka at November 23, 2011 08:58 PM (FKQng)

115 I was just repeating your own words, douchebag.

An even more retarded, inept, childish, moronic non-response. Excellent. You're quite the thinker, aren't you?

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:58 PM (e7bui)

116 Isn't Adam Savage a pretty prominent Skeptic? (Attended the Amazing Meeting, friends with James Randi, that sort of thing?)
When did he say that he was a Truther - during an episode of Mythbusters, or at some public appearance?

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 08:58 PM (XDdB5)

117 L Rob in OK, go for it. I will enjoy just knowing you're having fun.

Posted by: Ronster at November 23, 2011 08:59 PM (/c/ec)

118
Things look a lot different after 'the progressive' becomes the "mean old daddy" themselves. Some of them even get a clue.
Sure. But the ones who don't are lifers. And there's always a fresh batch of angry self-indulgent hedonists to hack away at the established wisdom of the ages.

Posted by: rfichoke at November 23, 2011 08:59 PM (SYhX2)

119 Uncle, my point is that if you want to have a valid point you must link to evidence. That's... Thats how this whole Internet thing works, man.

Sheesh.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 08:59 PM (ZUFNn)

120
When did he say that he was a Truther - during an episode of Mythbusters, or at some public appearance?

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 08:58 PM (XDdB5)

Public appearance which immediately set of the shit storm.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 08:59 PM (6IReR)

121 Which is the skinny one?

Posted by: Phoenixgirl at November 23, 2011 09:00 PM (NqULD)

122 119
Uncle, my point is that if you want to have a valid point you must link
to evidence. That's... Thats how this whole Internet thing works, man.





Sheesh.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 08:59 PM (ZUFNn)

I guess if I gave a flying fuck what you thought it'd be an issue for me. Fortunately, I don't.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:00 PM (6IReR)

123 Saw what I saw, the fact that your panties are in a twist is your problem champ, not mine.

Ah. What a surprise. You could knock me over with a feather! You can't actually post a link to either Mythbuster saying in his own words that he's a truther! Don't that just beat all.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:01 PM (e7bui)

124 An even more retarded, inept, childish, moronic non-response. Excellent. You're quite the thinker, aren't you?
Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 08:58 PM (e7bui)
Ah! Name calling again.
It is what you Alinsky types do best.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:01 PM (95++m)

125 HEY it's going to be THANKS goddamm fucken GIVING tomorrow so lets all get the fuck along for a little bit. OK??

Posted by: Killerdog at November 23, 2011 09:01 PM (CZrbJ)

126 121 Which is the skinny one?
Posted by: Phoenixgirl at November 23, 2011 09:00 PM (NqULD)


It gets chubbier!

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 23, 2011 09:02 PM (niZvt)

127 Ok, so being an empirical sort I picked a string of 10 picks, and not bothering to be creative: three 1s, three 2s, and four 3s.

I then found a d3 simulator and ran it through a number of runs and saw what the outcomes of staying and switching would be, presuming Hall always reveals a losing door before offering you a change to change.

The results:

Stay: 20%, 50%, 40% AVG: 37%
Change: 80%, 50%, 60%: AVG: 63%

Which I would guess seeing the pattern would average out to 33% vs 67% over infinite runs. So I'll have to retract my original argument.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2011 09:02 PM (3aXbg)

128 Public appearance which immediately set of the shit storm.

Such a shitstorm that's there's no evidence of it anywhere on the Internet.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:03 PM (e7bui)

129 Ah. What a surprise. You could knock me over with a
feather! You can't actually post a link to either Mythbuster saying in
his own words that he's a truther! Don't that just beat all.


Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:01 PM (e7bui)

And you like the asshat you are immediately confuse can't with, don't give a fuck what you want. You crying yet?

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:03 PM (6IReR)

130 The fat one with the walrus mustache built himself a 2'x2'x10' long aquarium out of 1/2" plexiglass (with reinforced corners) to stop a 12 gauge 3" magnum shotgun round. He filled it with water, climbed up a ladder and blew his contraption to smithereens with his first shot.

Who in hell would want that dumbass to help them design military body armor?

Posted by: Ed Anger - Certified Kos Kid at November 23, 2011 09:04 PM (7+pP9)

131 If it's not in the *internet* it never existed .. what a world.

Posted by: grease monkey at November 23, 2011 09:04 PM (VSWPU)

132 "It is what you Alinsky types do best."

Soft on crime
Soft on defense
Pro Life

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:04 PM (w9vb/)

133 Ah! Name calling again. It is what you Alinsky types do best.Classic. Behold the self-negating post.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:04 PM (e7bui)

134 Coolczech

You never disappoint....

Posted by: Phoenixgirl at November 23, 2011 09:04 PM (NqULD)

135 Yeah, he's crying.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:05 PM (6IReR)

136 Complain about the trolls if you will but I think the RCP linkage has brought some new people to the blog. The trolls will either get bored and go away or eventually post some nasty racist crap and get banned. I reckon we will get a few new morons for the horde out of it.

Posted by: Bob Undead Saget at November 23, 2011 09:05 PM (dBvlk)

137 That's true. The low A key string in a baby grand piano carries 2,000 lbs.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 08:43 PM (95++m)
Or one Michael Moore.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2011 09:05 PM (3aXbg)

138 Is this the part where I drop in to say that while I love the *idea* of the show, they fuck it up so consistently that it's completely worthless as source of information?

If you want to enjoy the show, enjoy it as fiction, not education.

*MUCH* of what the Discovery Channel offers should be taken in the same light.

It's not just the methodology, which is frequently so bad it shows they just don't care, they don't even get terminology or basic, easily-checkable facts right half the time.

I almost thought the Obama Special was a setup *against* him, it was so embarrassingly bad.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at November 23, 2011 09:05 PM (bxiXv)

139 39 Memory overload ? You are waaaay over thinking this. Leftards don't give a shit if they contradict themselves. They want power, and they don't care what it takes. They justify that they 'care' more and are 'good people'. But they do and say whatever they want to get what they want: control.



Yes, thank you. Something bothered me about this post from jump street. I couldn't put my finger on it.

The thing that bothers me is, this is actually two posts: The "WTF are leftards thinking?" post, and an interesting post on "wither Monty Hall?"

Anyway.

Poor Smudge, dressed as he is as a chicken in a diaper, has finally reached the finale of Let's Make a Deal. Monty has presented him with the three doors, and Smudge chooses one. Then Monty takes away a different door by revealing what it concealed: a mink bikini-clad burro and a personal wind farm.

Smudge doesn't know it, but the Monty Hall conundrum is easy: It doesn't matter whether one of the three doors is "taken away" sinceSmudge's odds don't improve.

You see,Smudge hasexactly as much information about the doorhe initially chose before the reveal as he did before, right?

Then how could it be that any information has been added to the system? Certainly, ifhe knew more about the other doors after the reveal, he would be able to figure out something new abouthis own door, right?

Therefore, the converse is true as well: Since we can't say any more about the doorhe's chosen after the reveal, then no more information has been added to the system.

Therefore, the odds are not1 in 2as we had presumed; they are actually 1 in 3, even though there are now only two available choices! Poor Smudge!

That is the Monty Hall problem: You think your odds go way up when they "take away" a door. But the door's still there. And any choice you make about the THREE doors will have poorer odds than you think it will.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:05 PM (I2LwF)

140 Adam Savage talks about Busting 9-11 Conspiracies

I haven't watched the clip, though.

Posted by: nickless, back with the banned (99.174.64.43) at November 23, 2011 09:06 PM (cBVAS)

141 Uncle, just tell us where you saw it at least. Was it on an episode? A webisode? A panel or a speech? If this is true I would want to know, we just can't take your word alone on it.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 09:06 PM (ZUFNn)

142 Dear Lord, this is why we can't have nice things.

Mythbusters, while a bit sketchy at times regarding the science, they're usually spot on about the method. Plus they aren't afraid to admit they might be wrong and re-test myths.

And let's be honest...if we refused to watch TV and movies where we disagreed with the actors....well, we'd be watching reruns of Benny Hill and Laugh-In for the rest of our days.

Posted by: Lone Marauder, pre-denounced for your convenience at November 23, 2011 09:06 PM (5SxTX)

143 saw it nickless, he said his nonsense before that.

of course, larry will cry about it.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:07 PM (6IReR)

144 And you like the asshat you are immediately confuse can't with, don't give a fuck what you want. You crying yet?

I get it. You're doing a parody of a mindlessly bellicose alcoholic, right?

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:07 PM (e7bui)

145 Stupid formatting. I hate this comment section.
39 Memory overload ? You are waaaay over thinking this. Leftards don't give a shit if they contradict themselves. They want power, and they don't care what it takes. They justify that they 'care' more and are 'good people'. But they do and say whatever they want to get what they want: control.
-
Yes, thank you. Something bothered me about this post from jump street. I couldn't put my finger on it. The thing that bothers me is, this is actually two posts: The "WTF are leftards thinking?" post, and an interesting post on "wither Monty Hall?"
-
Anyway.
-Poor Smudge, dressed as he is as a chicken in a diaper, has finally reached the finale of Let's Make a Deal. Monty has presented him with the three doors, and Smudge chooses one.
-
Then Monty takes away a different door by revealing what it concealed: a mink bikini-clad burro and a personal wind farm.
-Smudge doesn't know it, but the Monty Hall conundrum is easy: It doesn't matter whether one of the three doors is "taken away" sinceSmudge's odds don't improve.
-You see,Smudge hasexactly as much information about the doorhe initially chose before the reveal as he did before, right? Then how could it be that any information has been added to the system? Certainly, ifhe knew more about the other doors after the reveal, he would be able to figure out something new abouthis own door, right?
-Therefore, the converse is true as well: Since we can't say any more about the doorhe's chosen after the reveal, then no more information has been added to the system. Therefore, the odds are not1 in 2as we had presumed; they are actually 1 in 3, even though there are now only two available choices! Poor Smudge!
-That is the Monty Hall problem: You think your odds go way up when they "take away" a door. But the door's still there. And any choice you make about the THREE doors will have poorer odds than you think it will.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:08 PM (I2LwF)

146 Where did the Palin head to, along with the Becker Head?

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:09 PM (w9vb/)

147 Classic. Behold the self-negating post.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:04 PM (e7bui)

That makes no sense.
Anywho, itis what you Alinsky types do best.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:09 PM (95++m)

148 141
Uncle, just tell us where you saw it at least. Was it on an episode? A
webisode? A panel or a speech? If this is true I would want to know, we
just can't take your word alone on it.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 09:06 PM (ZUFNn)

was on infowars a while back. about 38 seconds later their forums went nuclear.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:09 PM (6IReR)

149 What, is that it? They're not going to explain why it's better to switch?

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 09:09 PM (UfxxJ)

150 And let's be honest...if we refused to watch TV and
movies where we disagreed with the actors....well, we'd be watching
reruns of Benny Hill and Laugh-In for the rest of our days.


Posted by: Lone Marauder, pre-denounced for your convenience at November 23, 2011 09:06 PM (5SxTX)



You say that like it's a bad thing.

Posted by: Killerdog at November 23, 2011 09:10 PM (CZrbJ)

151 I get it. You're doing a parody of a mindlessly bellicose alcoholic, right?


Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:07 PM (e7bui)

no, I just don't give enough of a fuck about what you want, or say to be bothered. clear enough?

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:10 PM (6IReR)

152 That makes no sense.

To you it doesn't, because you're too stupid to understand that when you complain about someone being a name caller and then instantly call them names, it negates your own complaint.

Embarrassing to have to spell it out for you.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:11 PM (e7bui)

153 and you say alcoholic like it's a bad thing, you do know where you are, right?



who the fuck let the amateur in?

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:11 PM (6IReR)

154 Isn't the Discovey Channel owned by the NYT?

Posted by: L Rob in OK at November 23, 2011 09:11 PM (7yvLv)

155 30
"I thought the Monty Hall Problem was trying to make a deal to screw one woman in an uncomfortable place."
Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 07:55 PM (DMIs1)

What, like the back seat of a Volkswagen?

Posted by: Genetic Tunder at November 23, 2011 09:11 PM (vQfJ3)

156 Front of Drudge. Wait, is there anything BUT the front of drudge?

Company not hiring till SCOAMF is GONE!
----
I know how it feels. One more year to go. Three years of going galt. Scraping along, but I WILL NOT WORK until he's gone. I won't contribute to his cause whatsoever. Just lucky my type of business can scrape along on autopilot for years.

Posted by: Jimmah at November 23, 2011 09:12 PM (Gx9ZQ)

157 Ok, so Uncle just backed up his assertion saying he saw it on fucking InfoWars. Seriously dude? GTFO.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 09:12 PM (ZUFNn)

158 Which I would guess seeing the pattern would average
out to 33% vs 67% over infinite runs. So I'll have to retract my
original argument.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2011 09:02 PM (3aXbg)
This is why we have math. The other way is so messy.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:12 PM (73tyQ)

159 "153
and you say alcoholic like it's a bad thing, you do know where you are, right?"

Girls, some of our greatest writers are such.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:13 PM (w9vb/)

160 I embedded a better explanation of the problem and the solution.

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 09:13 PM (UfxxJ)

161 Man, Adam Savage scrubbed the Internet but good.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 09:13 PM (DMIs1)

162 no, I just don't give enough of a fuck about what you want, or say to be bothered. clear enough?

Not clear at all, actually. It's gibberish. No wonder you're so mindlessly hostile. You can't express yourself, so nobody has any idea what you mean.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:13 PM (e7bui)

163 157
Ok, so Uncle just backed up his assertion saying he saw it on fucking InfoWars. Seriously dude? GTFO.

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 09:12 PM (ZUFNn)

yeah because it was there, they must have dubbed him saying his shit right?
feel free to join llarry in getting the shineboxes.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:13 PM (6IReR)

164 Not clear at all, actually. It's gibberish. No
wonder you're so mindlessly hostile. You can't express yourself, so
nobody has any idea what you mean.


Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:13 PM (e7bui)

I think you got what I said just fine.

Posted by: Unclefacts Out Of Commenting Retirement Just For This One Thing at November 23, 2011 09:14 PM (6IReR)

165 Update: Good grief, that was weak.

"Weak" is par for the course with Mythbusters.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2011 09:15 PM (DMIs1)

166 Yes, thank you. Something bothered me about this post from jump
street. I couldn't put my finger on it.

The thing that bothers me is, this is actually two posts: The "WTF are
leftards thinking?" post, and an interesting post on "wither Monty
Hall?"


No, Truman; it's about working memory overload. The whole post is about working memory overload. The Monty Hall problem is merely the vehicle.

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 09:16 PM (UfxxJ)

167 I think you got what I said just fine.

How overweight are you, by the way?

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:16 PM (e7bui)

168 I love mythbusters but the guys are clearly leftist twits. Kari Byron is lovely and smart but an animal rights vegetarian type. That's just Hollywood for you. As long as they stick to the fun myths and keep out of politics I don't really care.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 23, 2011 09:17 PM (r4wIV)

169 Girls, whos the funny comedian that has written 4 books, and that likes to drink?

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:17 PM (w9vb/)

170 We'll go with Cup One, Monty!

Posted by: Two Girls at November 23, 2011 09:17 PM (niZvt)

171 Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:11 PM (e7bui)
You're the douchebag promoting Socialism. I have no obligation to discuss reality with you.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:17 PM (95++m)

172 167
I think you got what I said just fine.

How overweight are you, by the way?


Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:16 PM (e7bui)


What does that have to do with anything?

Posted by: Killerdog at November 23, 2011 09:17 PM (CZrbJ)

173 My favorite Mythbuster stunt was when they *created* an earthquake at John Stewart's circle jerk ... just wow.

Posted by: grease monkey at November 23, 2011 09:18 PM (VSWPU)

174 They are doing the statistical part of the myth now...patience.

Posted by: Tendstl at November 23, 2011 09:18 PM (ogCxr)

175 "How overweight are you, by the way?"

You were banned?

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:19 PM (w9vb/)

176 Man, Adam Savage scrubbed the Internet but good.

It's what those Alinsky types do.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:19 PM (e7bui)

177 Fuck a VW, hell no, give me the goat!

Posted by: Mohamed the goat fucker at November 23, 2011 09:20 PM (hXJOG)

178 ErikW, can you explain how I promoted socialism?

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:20 PM (e7bui)

179 Mythbusters, while a bit sketchy at times regarding the science, they're usually spot on about the method. Plus they aren't afraid to admit they might be wrong and re-test myths.

Posted by: Lone Marauder, pre-denounced for your convenience at November 23, 2011 09:06 PM (5SxTX)

They are horrifying. They don't even test the myth a substantial amount of the time, they twist it in the middle to make some other point or just make it easier. They invent new rules halfway through a myth, apply conditions no one ever heard of as part of the myth, their math is often bad and they mislabel items or terms regularly.

Practically every episode has multiple significant flaws. They sometimes do get things very right, and sometimes they even have a method that makes complete sense.

Unfortunately their "re-test to check our own results" thing is mainly what the rabid fans want to see, rather than what they actually get wrong.

It is an entertainment show.

They would have done much better just doing a show about special effects and how they do them than trying to claim any mantle of legitimacy.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at November 23, 2011 09:21 PM (bxiXv)

180 That was pretty obvious that you have to switch every time.

Posted by: Tendstl at November 23, 2011 09:22 PM (ogCxr)

181 Ok so I just went to InfoWars (ugh) and searched for Adam savage. The only relevant reference is to a story about him accidentally sneaking razor blades in his carry on luggage on a flight. Any ideas where it would have gone uncle?

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 09:22 PM (ZUFNn)

182 Who's up for some more "Joe Pa is Toast" news?

Former administrator (who sounds really pissed) seems to have leaked email trails to the WSJ that show Joe Pa fought tooth and nail against any university oversight of the disciplinary matters for his team. Included in the emails is one from the Athletics Directory (Curley) confirming that Paterno did not think the university should report student violations even when "morally and legally obligated" to do so. The time-frame goes up to 2007 when she finally resigned in protest and the university assigned a stooge to kowtow to Paterno.

Joe Pa is so charred and toasted he'd better start wearing asbestos shorts.

Posted by: Y-not, pants back on at November 23, 2011 09:22 PM (5H6zj)

183 Girls, I don't think I like your God.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:23 PM (w9vb/)

184 They would have done much better just doing a show about special effects and how they do them than trying to claim any mantle of legitimacy.
So, it's just a tarted up version of Gallagher smashing watermelons?

Posted by: fluffy at November 23, 2011 09:24 PM (O6q63)

Posted by: irongrampa at November 23, 2011 09:24 PM (SAMxH)

186 ErikW, can you explain how I promoted socialism?
Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:20 PM (e7bui)
HAHAHA!
I don't need to. You've done it yourself.
Fool.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:24 PM (95++m)

187 The only one on Mythbusters who has a clue science-wise is Grant.

Jamie is a sharp guy, but as an engineer, not as a scientist.

Posted by: Y-not, pants back on at November 23, 2011 09:25 PM (5H6zj)

188 "185

Posted by: irongrampa at November 23, 2011 09:24 PM (SAMxH)"
Iron Gramps, you firing blanks?

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:26 PM (w9vb/)

189 I have been quite impressive with your posts, keep up the great work.

Posted by: The Drop epub at November 23, 2011 09:27 PM (oZhf0)

190 Ok so I just went to InfoWars (ugh) and searched for Adam savage. The
only relevant reference is to a story about him accidentally sneaking
razor blades in his carry on luggage on a flight. Any ideas where it
would have gone uncle?

"I heard what I heard, you fuck! Goddam socialist! I'll kill you! Urrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrp! Help! (Clunk)."

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:27 PM (e7bui)

191 Joe Pa is so charred and toasted he'd better start wearing asbestos shorts.
Well, at least his lungs are.

Posted by: somebody else, not me at November 23, 2011 09:28 PM (7EV/g)

192 On the Monty Hall problem: You didn't marry that door with your first choice. Whether you choose to switch (50-50 change of winning) or reaffirm (50-50 chance now since only 2 doors remain) should have no effect on your odds. Zero.

On the main point: It seems to me that if lib biases manifest because of factual overload, the only ways this would not be replicated on the right would be 1) the right is freer to disregard facts and hits overload less often or 2) leftiies are less intelligent. We would also see less bias on relatively simple issues than complicated ones. Do you have data?

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 23, 2011 09:30 PM (JXaAZ)

193 So, ErikW, I promoted socialism by saying there's no evidence that either Mythbuster is a truther.

Got it. Makes perfect sense.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:31 PM (e7bui)

194 leftiies are less intelligent

Is that door #2, Monty? I'll go with that one.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at November 23, 2011 09:33 PM (vbh31)

195 Joe Pa is so charred and toasted he'd better start wearing asbestos shorts.
Well, at least his lungs are.
Posted by: somebody else, not me at November 23, 2011 09:28 PM (7EV/g)
Cold.
Or warm as the case may be.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:33 PM (95++m)

196 For the most part, I don't believe these people see themselves doing it, and I think working memory overload might be the reason why.

Sorry. Gotta call bullshit on this.

The fuckers do what they do so they can take my shit and make me jump through hoops for their amusement.

They knowingly lie.

Fuck 'em. They aren't even human. Why in the fuck should anybody give a rat's ass about how their vermin minds work?

Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at November 23, 2011 09:33 PM (p7SSh)

197 So, it's just a tarted up version of Gallagher smashing watermelons?

Posted by: fluffy at November 23, 2011 09:24 PM (O6q63)

I'd say so.

Jamie is a sharp guy, but as an engineer, not as a scientist.
Posted by: Y-not, pants back on at November 23, 2011 09:25 PM (5H6zj)

Jamie is a GREAT Okie-Engineer, and if the show had been about that it would be terrific.

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at November 23, 2011 09:34 PM (bxiXv)

198 You say that like it's a bad thing.
Sock it to me!

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 09:34 PM (piMMO)

199 Here is a Myth buster.

If 12 people were indicted for voter fraud, how many would be democrats?

I am thinking, give me a minute.

http://tinyurl.com/7qvtenu

Posted by: Billy Bob, the guy who drinks in SC at November 23, 2011 09:35 PM (hXJOG)

200 There's a lot of petty bickering and name calling going on tonight. Reminds me of the Thanksgivings of my past. Good times.

Posted by: lowandslow at November 23, 2011 09:36 PM (GZitp)

201 @ 198--Life would be just a bit better if there were shows like that again.

Posted by: irongrampa at November 23, 2011 09:37 PM (SAMxH)

202 I'm sensing a flame war coming on.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 09:38 PM (piMMO)

203 Another point on the notion of factual overload causing poor decisions...members of the left generally know significantly less about the issues of the day then the right - at a minimum because of the ever present state media everyone always hears the left's arguments - but you have to go and search for the right's on your own.

And liberals consider it wrong to go to conservative sites specifically because it may challenge their assumptions.

So, for example, take the 2000 election recount in FL. Almost everyone politically aware knows about Katherine Harris and her partisan affiliation. How many know the same of Bob Butterworth?

Posted by: 18-1 at November 23, 2011 09:38 PM (3aXbg)

204 200
There's a lot of petty bickering and name calling going on tonight. Reminds me of the Thanksgivings of my past.

We're getting ready for Festivus and the Airing of the Grievances.

Posted by: Y-not, pants back on at November 23, 2011 09:38 PM (5H6zj)

205 If 12 people were indicted for voter fraud, how many would be democrats?

You are just talking indicted, right?

Posted by: Irv Slosberg at November 23, 2011 09:38 PM (3aXbg)

206
I read the link to the sidebar story on Rainbow 6. The description there seems to me you actually get to shoot the OWS instead of the T-party.

Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 23, 2011 09:39 PM (JYheX)

207 "200
There's a lot of petty bickering and name calling going on tonight. Reminds me of the Thanksgivings of my past. Good times."

Fun, fun, fun, then you get banned. Ace in his astute ways to limit speech has chosen it.

I am pretty snocked though, so truth has little meaning

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:40 PM (w9vb/)

208 No, Truman; it's about working memory overload. The whole post is about working memory overload. The Monty Hall problem is merely the vehicle.
Sorry, rd. My moron brain couldn't even remember that from the beginning to the end. Must have been a case of memory overload. You ever hear of that?

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:40 PM (I2LwF)

209 Yechh! I hope y'all are enjoying Mythbusters, the NOVA that I had high hopes for is way too simplistic for anyone who has even a casual interest in cosmology.

Posted by: Bob Undead Saget at November 23, 2011 09:40 PM (dBvlk)

210 206 Yeah,and Clancy is a conservative,I believe he is the scenario writer.

Posted by: steevy at November 23, 2011 09:40 PM (7WJOC)

211 There's a lot of petty bickering and name calling going on tonight. Reminds me of the Thanksgivings of my past. Good times.

I think the stress of too much family time, or the anticipation of said family time, has folks a bit on edge.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 09:41 PM (piMMO)

212 So, ErikW, I promoted socialism by saying there's no evidence that either Mythbuster is a truther.Got it. Makes perfect sense.
Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:31 PM (e7bui)

Why are you here?
You're not convincing anyone any different from what they already believe.
That would be like me promoting Gingrich over at Kos.
Do you like being a pain in the ass?

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:41 PM (95++m)

213 206

I read the link to the sidebar story on Rainbow 6. The description
there seems to me you actually get to shoot the OWS instead of the
T-party.


Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 23, 2011 09:39 PM (JYheX)

You would be much safer shooting at the OWS, the Tea Party will shoot back for sure.

Posted by: Killerdog at November 23, 2011 09:41 PM (CZrbJ)

214 Good God Almighty, 'brewer...

Did it ever occur to you that they're just a bunch of hypocritical, lying, butt-sniffing, cock-sucking, commie scumbags... and just leave it at that???

Don't make up fancy, convoluted excuses for naked dishonesty bias.

Sometimes a whore is just a whore.

Posted by: CPT. Charles at November 23, 2011 09:42 PM (1GunI)

215 You made a few good points there. I did a search on the matter and found a good number of people will agree with your blog.

Posted by: Betty & Friends ePub at November 23, 2011 09:42 PM (sKGGa)

216 We're getting ready for Festivus and the Airing of the Grievances.
Posted by: Y-not, pants back on at November 23, 2011 09:38 PM (5H6zj)

Not even Thanksgiving quite yet, and a Festivus reference...

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 23, 2011 09:42 PM (niZvt)

217 Must have been a case of memory overload. You ever hear of that?

Heh.

Re the bias: I was thinking I have more respect for those who do it on purpose than those who just don't see their bias. It may be more evil, but it's less animal.

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 09:43 PM (UfxxJ)

218 #206: TEA Party: TP; True Patriots: TP. And OWS doesn't give a hoot about the government's involvement in crony capitalism, while the TEA Party (and the True Patriots) are bothered by both sides of it (although the government bothers them more).

Posted by: Genetic Tunder at November 23, 2011 09:43 PM (vQfJ3)

219 Llarry, I think everyone's responding to:

Yes, I'm a socialist!

If you were being sarcastic, a simple "socialism sucks, thank you" would be enough to assuage the negativity that seems to bother you.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:44 PM (73tyQ)

220 I read a couple of different articles. They don't come out and say it's the ETA movement, but they talk about the beliefs of the terrorists, and they're the same beliefs the TEA people have. Except the terrorists in the game kill people.

Actually, it took me quite a few pages of reading to figure out who they were shooting at.

But in case you are unclear: This is an Ubisoft Montreal production. And God forbid anybody makes a major media project where the leftists are the bad guys. It's not really all that hard to figure out.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:44 PM (I2LwF)

221 Not even Thanksgiving quite yet, and a Festivus reference...

We are in full-on holiday mode here at Casa Y-not, including Christmas music, two trees up and tummies full of turkey.

Posted by: Y-not, ho-ho-ho dammit at November 23, 2011 09:44 PM (5H6zj)

222 210
206 Yeah,and Clancy is a conservative,I believe he is the scenario writer.

True, but if Rainbow 6 does indeed have you eliminate "radical" Tea Partiers, Clancy probably had no knowledge of this in the game sporting his book title. In fact, didn't Clancy disavow the film adaptations of Clear and Present Danger and The Sum of all Fears because they significantly deviated from his novels?

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at November 23, 2011 09:45 PM (UR5vq)

223 218
#206: TEA Party: TP; True Patriots: TP. And OWS doesn't give a hoot
about the government's involvement in crony capitalism, while the TEA
Party (and the True Patriots) are bothered by both sides of it (although
the government bothers them more).



Are you threatening me?!?!

Posted by: The Great Cornholio at November 23, 2011 09:45 PM (QaKuj)

224 Sometimes a whore is just a whore.

Yes.

Posted by: Kim Kardashian at November 23, 2011 09:45 PM (vbh31)

225 ErikW, I'm here to read your brilliant posts. Isn't everyone? Where else would we learn that disputing an accusation made against TV personalities makes you a promoter of socialism?

That there is sheer fucking genius, and I wouldn't have missed it for the world.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:45 PM (e7bui)

226 Life would be just a bit better if there were shows like that again.

Is she not the cutest thing that ever lived?

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 09:45 PM (piMMO)

227 RD, interesting about how someone isn't even aware of the contradictory argument they just made, but isn't that just the childish "I should have both cookies, and my brother none, because" argument we make since we're little?

Most people, especially the unaware, un-self-critical, and juvenile, postulate that the greatest good for the general public just so happens to be what yields themselves the most direct benefits. As adults they just get slightly (and I do mean slightly) less obvious about it than a kid arguing that of course he should have the cookie.

Posted by: ace at November 23, 2011 09:46 PM (nj1bB)

228 Re the bias: I was thinking I have more respect for those who do it on purpose than those who just don't see their bias. It may be more evil, but it's less animal.
I wrote a paper for a mass communications class with this thesis. Got a C+. Which probably means it was a dynamite paper that my professor disagreed with; but it might have been poor scholarship.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:46 PM (I2LwF)

229 We are in full-on holiday mode here at Casa Y-not, including Christmas music, two trees up and tummies full of turkey.


Posted by: Y-not, ho-ho-ho dammit at November 23, 2011 09:44 PM (5H6zj)

--I gotta wait at least until after work tomorrow (hey it's not a holiday in Canada) and settle in to the Cowboys game before I can get in the spirit. bad enough that i have to tune the music out when I've been shopping.

Posted by: logprof at November 23, 2011 09:47 PM (QaKuj)

230 206 I read the link to the sidebar story on Rainbow 6. The description there seems to me you actually get to shoot the OWS instead of the T-party.
Yeah, terrorists out to "behead corporate America" doesn't sound very tea party. If they make the terrorists look like shit-covered hippies I might have to buy this game.

Posted by: bernverdnardo at November 23, 2011 09:47 PM (xXhWA)

231 206 I read the link to the sidebar story on Rainbow 6. The description there seems to me you actually get to shoot the OWS instead of the T-party.
Posted by: Guy Mohawk at November 23, 2011 09:39 PM (JYheX)
Can we just make it a flight sim so I can do a BUFF strike on the OWS?

Posted by: Red Shirt at November 23, 2011 09:47 PM (FIDMq)

232 If you were being sarcastic, a simple "socialism sucks, thank you" would be enough to assuage the negativity that seems to bother you.
Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:44 PM (73tyQ)
No, he's a full fledged Socialist and deserves what he got.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:47 PM (95++m)

233 Don't know about Trutherism, but I heard an interview with Adam once where he talked about how there's a big insurance industry conspiracy stopping us from having socialized medicine here, how the insurance executives threatened the Clintons back when they were first elected, and IIRC he believed that the whole Lewinsky incident and resulting impeachment was the insurance company's revenge for trying to pass HIllarycare.

Posted by: Brendan at November 23, 2011 09:49 PM (2jQGY)

234 Girls, we are all but meat. Live with it.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:50 PM (w9vb/)

235 No, he's a full fledged Socialist and deserves what he got.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:47 PM (95++m)I thought it was worth pointing out that he admitted to it.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:51 PM (73tyQ)

236 Girls, we are all but meat. Live with it.

I know I am. And I know the girls know this too.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:52 PM (73tyQ)

237 But in case you are unclear: This is an Ubisoft Montreal production. And God forbid anybody makes a major media project where the leftists are the bad guys. It's not really all that hard to figure out.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:44 PM (I2LwF)

Storywise, Ubi Montreal has been responsible for some of the worst crap in the industry. Nihilism, degredation, whatever. I won't buy it if they make it.

QA wise, that would be Bethesda.

Unfortunately, the good game developers make games I don't care to play. How much does that suck?

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at November 23, 2011 09:52 PM (bxiXv)

238 Liberal was here under another name backing Ron Paul a few nights ago.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:52 PM (I2LwF)

239 If you were being sarcastic, a simple "socialism sucks, thank you" would
be enough to assuage the negativity that seems to bother you.

Or you could ask EricW why he thinks I'm a socialist for disputing that Adam Savage is a truther.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:52 PM (e7bui)

240 Toss-up between Goldie Hawn and Judy Carne for me. Used to like the old SNL before it deteriorated so badly.

Posted by: irongrampa at November 23, 2011 09:53 PM (SAMxH)

241 Girls, we are all but meat. Live with it.
I have a lot of flab on me too

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:54 PM (I2LwF)

242 Or you could ask EricW why he thinks I'm a socialist for disputing that Adam Savage is a truther.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:52 PM (e7bui)
I don't speak for anyone else. I quoted you. Perhaps you'd like to address your own quote.I do note that you don't deny it. You prefer to fight fire with strawmen.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:54 PM (73tyQ)

243 I gotta wait at least until after work tomorrow (hey it's not a holiday
in Canada) and settle in to the Cowboys game before I can get in the
spirit.

Well, I kind of had to embrace the holiday mode thing when Mr Y-not decided to take the week off. I admit, I haven't done any shopping or anything, but having the trees up helps.

Posted by: Y-not, ho-ho-ho dammit at November 23, 2011 09:55 PM (5H6zj)

244 "238
Liberal was here under another name backing Ron Paul a few nights ago.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:52 PM (I2LwF)"
Yes nut, and I still back Ron Paul as he wants to end the wars. On drugs, etc.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:55 PM (w9vb/)

245 I could use a meat girl about now.

Posted by: Bob Undead Saget at November 23, 2011 09:55 PM (dBvlk)

246 Most people, especially the unaware, un-self-critical, and juvenile,
postulate that the greatest good for the general public just so happens
to be what yields themselves the most direct benefits. As adults they
just get slightly (and I do mean slightly) less obvious about it than a
kid arguing that of course he should have the cookie.

Why does everything have to be about Frank Rich for you?

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 09:56 PM (UfxxJ)

247 No, he's a full fledged Socialist and deserves what he got.

I prefer the term "card-carrying socialist." It's even stupider.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 09:56 PM (e7bui)

248 Yes nut, and I still back Ron Paul as he wants to end the wars. On drugs, etc.

OK, if you get your pot, then will you shut the hell up?

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:57 PM (73tyQ)

249 Ace and meat and Vonnegut knows of what I speaketh

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 09:57 PM (w9vb/)

250 Liberal, I sense some orner in you. You're ornery.

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:59 PM (I2LwF)

251 I thought it was worth pointing out that he admitted to it.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 09:51 PM (73tyQ)
He's a loser, Amish. Don't be fooled.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 09:59 PM (95++m)

252 "241

Girls, we are all but meat. Live with it.


I have a lot of flab on me too

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 09:54 PM (I2LwF)"
Guessing you are really dumb as meat and flab (fat) are quite different.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:00 PM (w9vb/)

253 True. Leftist lies and the media omissions and lies to cover up the leftist lies have become so numerous that they're are noise--an impenetrable wall of bullshit comprised of constantly moving little turds that are impossible to pick off individually. It's like trying to shoot one starling out of a flock of starlings with an air rifle.

It's like the typical AoSHQ comment thread.

Posted by: Dion at November 23, 2011 10:00 PM (SvieA)

254 I anyone else having trouble reloading the page?

And...South Park: A History Channel Thanksgiving on next.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 10:01 PM (piMMO)

255 Storywise, Ubi Montreal has been responsible for some of the worst crap in the industry. Nihilism, degredation, whatever. I won't buy it if they make it. Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at November 23, 2011 09:52 PM (bxiXv)
I really liked Far Cry 2. Actually, I don't remember if it had a story or not but it had a pro-gun message. AndFar Cry 3 looks incredible.

Posted by: bernverdnardo at November 23, 2011 10:01 PM (xXhWA)

256 I am having a bit O trouble reloading

Posted by: Killerdog at November 23, 2011 10:02 PM (CZrbJ)

257 Also, men are different from women. But you keep calling us girls.
What is wrong? Why are you trying to be mean?

Posted by: Truman North at November 23, 2011 10:02 PM (I2LwF)

258 Fine, then. This all ends up in civil war, and we do our best to kill as many of the lousy little commies as we can.

Posted by: Mike James at November 23, 2011 10:02 PM (E5gnO)

259 Yes nut, and I still back Ron Paul as he wants to end the wars. On drugs, etc.

You are still living in a child's fantasy wherein there exists no wars? And you have the nerve to call Truman a nut!

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 10:03 PM (piMMO)

260 "256
I am having a bit O trouble reloading"
They are fighting the truth. Its a losing battle.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:04 PM (w9vb/)

261 Also, men are different from women. But you keep calling us girls.
I hope he appreciates the education you've provided. My guess is that he previously had NO IDEA that there were differences in men and women... having never been in the company of a woman.

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 10:04 PM (piMMO)

262 And...South Park: A History Channel Thanksgiving on next.

We were watching Tanksgiving on the Military Channel earlier.

Posted by: Y-not, ho-ho-ho dammit at November 23, 2011 10:05 PM (5H6zj)

263
Did it ever occur to you that they're just a bunch of hypocritical, lying, butt-sniffing, cock-sucking, commie scumbags... and just leave it at that???
Don't make up fancy, convoluted excuses for naked dishonesty & bias.
The leadership is like that. But most of the rank and file are truly dupes.

Posted by: rfichoke at November 23, 2011 10:05 PM (SYhX2)

264 260
"256
I am having a bit O trouble reloading"
They are fighting the truth. Its a losing battle.


Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:04 PM (w9vb/)


A liberal telling the truth? That's a fucken lie!

Posted by: Killerdog at November 23, 2011 10:06 PM (CZrbJ)

265 Perhaps you'd like to address your own quote.

Wow. Seriously? Okay, let's waste some time, then. At post 66 I wrote that Adam Savage is not a truther. At post 72 ErikW then called me a socialist for saying that. At post 87 I said in response, "Yes, I'm a socialist!" and followed it up with my political beliefs, which are diametrically opposed to socialism.

And now you note that I haven't denied being a socialist.

Ya got me! I'm a socialist! I'm a SINO, actually, since my actual beliefs and voting record are not, in fact, socialist. But I'm still a socialist, because I don't believe that Adam Savage is a truther.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 10:07 PM (e7bui)

266 "257 Also, men are different from women. But you keep calling us girls.
What is wrong? Why are you trying to be mean?"


Girls tend to fear more than men. Libs tend to fear less than cons.


Girls, we die, thats it.






Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:07 PM (w9vb/)

267 Fine, then. This all ends up in civil war, and we do our best to kill as many of the lousy little commies as we can.
Posted by: Mike James at November 23, 2011 10:02 PM (E5gnO)
Be very, very, verycareful.
The enemy knows how to infiltrate.
Commies are good at that shit.
However, Conservatives can spot them a mile away.

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 10:08 PM (95++m)

268 Damn, this is the dumbest set of comments evah. The morons must really be drinking it up tonight.

And fyi, rdbrewer, the Monty Hall problems has nothing to do with "memory overload". What the fuck were you thinking.

Posted by: President Chet Roosevelt at November 23, 2011 10:08 PM (Ewz9x)

269 I really liked Far Cry 2. Actually, I don't remember if it had a story or not but it had a pro-gun message. And Far Cry 3 looks incredible.

Posted by: bernverdnardo at November 23, 2011 10:01 PM (xXhWA)

Interesting. FC2 is specifically why I will not buy another Ubi Montreal game. Most Disappointing Game Ever.

Mind you, I care *more* about story than I do about game mechanics.

Short version of FC2 story: everybody betrays everybody and then you kill yourself for no reason. No, you have no choice, nothing you do affects the outcome.

Doestoevsky called to say "lighten up, Ubi."

Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at November 23, 2011 10:10 PM (bxiXv)

270 "You are still living in a child's fantasy wherein there exists no wars? And you have the nerve to call Truman a nut!

Posted by: Niedermeyer's Dead Horse at November 23, 2011 10:03 PM (piMMO)"
How about we just leave people the fk alone?

Ron Paul for president.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:10 PM (w9vb/)

271 Can we get a new thread now?

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 23, 2011 10:10 PM (niZvt)

272 Girls tend to fear more than men.
Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:07 PM (w9vb/)

Dude - you really went there? Oh dear......

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 10:11 PM (XDdB5)

273 #include <stdlib.h>
#include <iostream>

using namespace std;

int main(int argc, char* argv[]) {
bool switch_choice(atoi(argv[1]));
int n_total(10000), n_correct(0);
for (int i(0); i < n_total; ++i) {
int user_choice(rand() % 3);
int monty_choice(rand() % 3);
int revealed;
for (int j(0); j < 3; ++j) {
if (j != user_choice && j != monty_choice) {
revealed = j;
break;
}
}
if (switch_choice) {
for (int j(0); j < 3; ++j) {
if (j != user_choice && j != revealed) {
user_choice = j;
break;
}
}
}
if (user_choice == monty_choice) {
++n_correct;
}
}
cout << (static_cast<double>(n_correct) / static_cast<double>(n_total)) << endl;
return 0;
}

bash-3.2$ g++ main.cpp
bash-3.2$ ./a.out 1
0.6668
bash-3.2$ ./a.out 0
0.3332
bash-3.2$

Posted by: caspera at November 23, 2011 10:11 PM (3qrii)

274 And fyi, rdbrewer, the Monty Hall problems has nothing to do with "memory overload".

Google it. And it's "working memory overload."

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 10:12 PM (UfxxJ)

275 Damn, this is the dumbest set of comments evah. The morons must really be drinking it up tonight.
Posted by: President Chet Roosevelt at November 23, 2011 10:08 PM (Ewz9x)

I smell a Commie.


I keed!

Posted by: ErikW at November 23, 2011 10:12 PM (95++m)

276 Fearful cons, how about we just leave people the fuck alone?

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:15 PM (w9vb/)

277 I'm about to shut down due to "bad comments overload." Jeesh.

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 23, 2011 10:15 PM (niZvt)

278 Commies are good at that shit.

Communists can't hold a candle to us socialists. We're so fucking good at infiltrating that we fool even ourselves! I, for example, did't know I was a socialist until you unmasked me. Here I've been voting straight GOP all my life, but because I dispute that Adam Savage is a truther, it turns out I'm a socialist!

Those guys are good. And by those guys, I mean me.

Me are good.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 10:16 PM (e7bui)

279 Ya got me! I'm a socialist! I'm a SINO, actually,
since my actual beliefs and voting record are not, in fact, socialist.
But I'm still a socialist, because I don't believe that Adam Savage is a
truther.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 10:07 PM (e7bui)
Funny thing. You blame people for reacting hostilely towards you and you respond with sarcasm on top of sarcasm.Whether you are a socialist or not, you are, in fact, a total dick.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 23, 2011 10:17 PM (73tyQ)

280 Girls, let drink more and fight less

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:20 PM (w9vb/)

281 Voting straight GOP for the last decade or two is a sure sign of socialism-light rot in the brain.

Posted by: Bob Undead Saget at November 23, 2011 10:23 PM (dBvlk)

282 Girls, let drink more and fight less.
Given the meaning you attach to the term "girls," aren't you contradicting yourself a bit here?

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 10:24 PM (XDdB5)

283 Whether you are a socialist or not, you are, in fact, a total dick.

No, I'm actually a normal, likeable person who doesn't suffer fools gladly and who's sick of anonymous, utterly gratuitous hostility from people who've internalized the troll culture and who like to start fights over innocuous comments.

The fact that you think I'm the dick here just shows what your own limitations are.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 10:25 PM (e7bui)

284 Why do cons hate reality, like they do? They fight it at every turn.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:25 PM (w9vb/)

285 Why the fuck do I need to google it? The Monty Hall problem is a statistical problem, it doesn't have anything to do with working memory overload, whatever the hell that is.

Posted by: President Chet Roosevelt at November 23, 2011 10:25 PM (Ewz9x)

286 @145 and 192

You guys have it wrong. Others have already covered the main abstract explanations, so let me show you the brute force explanation:

3 doors, A, B, C. Prize is behind door C.

There are 6 possible choices:
1.) You choose door A, then switch.
2.) Choose door A, no switch.
3.) B, switch.
4.) B, no switch.
5.) C, switch.
6.) C, no switch.

If you choose door A, Monty opens door B, switching will open door C and win you the prize. No switch, no prize.

If you choose door B, Monty opens door A, switching will win prize, not switch will not win prize.

If you choose door C, Monty opens either door A or B. Switching will not win prize, not switching will win prize.

If you always switch, you restrict yourself to 3 scenarios 1, 3, and 5. (A, switch; B, switch; C, switch) 2/3 of those scenarios will win a prize.

If you never switch, you restrict yourself to the other 3 outcomes: 2, 4, and 6. ( A, no switch; B, no switch; C, no switch) 1/3 of those scenarios will win a prize.


Thus, always switching is the winning strategy. You have a 67% chance to win. What trips people up is that the initial chance of choosing the right answer is 1/3, which affects that "50/50" chance when your options are dropped down to two doors.

Posted by: ConservativeMonster at November 23, 2011 10:26 PM (4tSC8)

287 Why do you characterize girls as fearful, Liberal? When did the feminine take on a pejorative sense for you?

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 10:27 PM (XDdB5)

288 "Girls, let drink more and fight less.
Given the meaning you attach to the term "girls," aren't you contradicting yourself a bit here?"
huh?
Do I want to fight and kill???
No, no, know little one, I grew up from that long ago.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:29 PM (w9vb/)

289 Voting straight GOP for the last decade or two is a sure sign of socialism-light rot in the brain.

Actually, now I think about it, everything is a sign of socialism. Voting for the people who will do less damage? Socialism! Voting for the people who support a strong military? Socialism! Voting for people who cut taxes? Socialism!

Mine eyes have been opened. No wonder Breitbart loves the comments here.

Posted by: Llarry at November 23, 2011 10:29 PM (e7bui)

290 Fascinating monty hall problem. I always thought that by swapping, you improved your chances from 33% to 50%. But it's even better than that, it *is* 67% (2/3).

The key is that you chose your door with no inputs. Therefore, the chance that it is correct is 33%. The chance that one of the other doors is correct is 67%.

When Monty opens one of the other doors - to be the wrong choice - it means the remaining other door now holds the entire original 67% chance of being the correct door.

You have to swap.

I started to write a little program to prove this (with random ftn). I got to a certain point in writing it, and the logic exercise made me realize the answer obviously had to be: swap.

Posted by: Mike Devx at November 23, 2011 10:31 PM (UpW+I)

291 I'm back. Did Uncle ever provide any proof other than a his assertion that Alex Jones posted a story about it? A story which would seem to have gone down the memory hole?

Posted by: Supercore23 at November 23, 2011 10:32 PM (ZUFNn)

292 WHY YOU DON'T SWAP

Monty won't offer you the other door if you've already picked wrong. Therefore you have the odds with you if you stick. You're odds certainly don't improve if you've already picked right. You're odds can only go down.

Monty has an agenda, that is, to make you lose so that the show can win.

Posted by: Great Reagan's Ghost at November 23, 2011 10:33 PM (9NoxQ)

293 "287
Why do you characterize girls as fearful, Liberal? When did the feminine take on a pejorative sense for you?

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 10:27 PM (XDdB5)"Because girls, con girls, need men to protect them, according to the bible?Girls, the God stuff is not true.Girls, stand up for your selves.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:34 PM (w9vb/)

294 Mike Devx,

I wrote the program in comment 273.

Posted by: caspera at November 23, 2011 10:35 PM (3qrii)

295 Because girls, con girls, need men to protect them, according to the bible?
Girls, the God stuff is not true.
Girls, stand up for your selves.
So we and the whole rational though/logical reasoning thing are not close acquaintances, are we......

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 10:37 PM (XDdB5)

296
Why do cons hate reality, like they do? They fight it at every turn.
It's just our nature, I guess. I'll have to find some way to bear up under the shame of it all.

Posted by: rfichoke at November 23, 2011 10:38 PM (SYhX2)

297 Girls

abortion

Your God has killed more through miscarriage in any given year, than the libs have killed in eternity.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:39 PM (w9vb/)

298 Why the fuck do I need to google it? The Monty Hall
problem is a statistical problem, it doesn't have anything to do with
working memory overload, whatever the hell that is.

Posted by: President Chet Roosevelt at November 23, 2011 10:25 P

Research has shown parrots have a better chance of solving the problem than the average person.

Posted by: rdbrewer at November 23, 2011 10:39 PM (UfxxJ)

299 "So we and the whole rational though/logical reasoning thing are not close acquaintances, are we......"
Suspect you are a girl, and a con, so can we argue on any rational level?

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:42 PM (w9vb/)

300 Girls, let drink more and fight less

In other words, (w9vb/)
is all butthurt because it wanted a sexy goat door, but won the Chevy Vega.

Posted by: Goater Toast at November 23, 2011 10:43 PM (YTO4F)

301 Suspect you are a girl, and a con, so can we argue on any rational level?
You're right on one of those - the one that doesn't have anything to do with biology - but tell you what, you start being rational anytime you feel like it.

Posted by: A. Smith at November 23, 2011 10:47 PM (XDdB5)

302
Suspect you are a girl, and a con, so can we argue on any rational level?
And I suspect you're a syphilitic whore who gobbles wang in the local Texaco bathroom. So no, I guess we can't.

Posted by: rfichoke at November 23, 2011 10:47 PM (SYhX2)

303 Con girls, why are you only paid on average 75 percent of what men are paid? For the exact same work.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:54 PM (w9vb/)

304 "303
Con girls, why are you only paid on average 75 percent of what men are paid? For the exact same work.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:54 PM (w9vb/)"
But lets be truly honest here...

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 10:56 PM (w9vb/)

305 can we argue on any rational level?


Clearly not.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 23, 2011 10:58 PM (r4wIV)

306 "305
can we argue on any rational level?


Clearly not.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at November 23, 2011 10:58 PM (r4wIV)"
Then war?

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 11:00 PM (w9vb/)

307 Then war?


Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 11:00 PM (w9vb/)

No just ragging on you.

Posted by: raytard at November 23, 2011 11:08 PM (etHkh)

308 Cold Play

The morning is for sleeping

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 11:12 PM (w9vb/)

309 Girls, cold play, radio head, have huge ones

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 11:14 PM (w9vb/)

310 cold play

Im just waiting till the violence starts.

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 11:18 PM (w9vb/)

311 Cold play

Time is too short

Posted by: Liberal at November 23, 2011 11:19 PM (w9vb/)

312
Fox News viewers are less informed than people who don't watch any news, according to a new poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University.


The poll surveyed New Jersey residents about the uprisings in Egypt
and the Middle East, and where they get their news sources. The study,
which controlled for demographic factors like education and
partisanship, found that "people who watch Fox News are 18-points less
likely to know that Egyptians overthrew their government" and "6-points
less likely to know that Syrians have not yet overthrown their
government" compared to those who watch no news.

Posted by: walter at November 23, 2011 11:57 PM (oA4y0)

313 "What trips people up is that the initial chance of choosing the right answer is 1/3, which affects that "50/50" chance when your options are dropped down to two doors."

Except it doesn't. The original 1/3 odds are irrelevant once the third door is opened. The prize is either behind the first or the second door. That's 50% for either door. Deciding to hold your choice of the first is no more or less likely to be correct than switching to the second. In effect, you are choosing all over again and only 2 options exist.

As your reasoning would have it, if I choose 1 and Monty opens 3, the prize is twice as likely to be behind 2 as 1. If I chose 2 and Monty opens 3, it is twice as likely to be behind 1. Tell me, does the prize sometimes move based on the initial choice of a door? The odds associated with initially choosing between 1, 2 and 3 have nothing to do with the second choice between only 1 and 2.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 24, 2011 12:09 AM (JXaAZ)

314 I guess walt's post puts him in rdb's camp for explaining the Left's cognitively dissonant nutbaggery. Congratulations on accidentally staying on topic, walt.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 24, 2011 12:18 AM (JXaAZ)

315 To add my two cents to the Monty Hall problem. To begin the game you choose your door (say you choose #3). Monty then opens one of the two remaining doors (we will say door #2). The flaw in the logic is that Monty has "two doors" and thatthey have any relation to each other. Your odds of having the correct door went from 1/3 to 1/2. Just because Monty opened door #2 does not make it more likely that the car is behind door #1. All Monty has done by opening one door and eliminate one of the choices which slightly improve the odds of guessing the correct door. Just because Monty got rid of one of the choices does not mean the prize can magicly shift positions. The car is behind one of the 3 doors, so if there if an equal distribution (due to chance) between the 3 doors each door has the same chance of having the car behind it. Just because you have more information (the revealed door with the goat) does not effect the random distribution between the 3 doors. Since presumablythe contestantcan't or won't choose the revealed goat door the information is really not realavant to what lies behind the remaining doors. Just because you have more data does not always mean that the additional data means something. Its like knowing that Hitler loved his german shepherd dog. I guess interesting to know, but really doesn't have any impact on how D-Day progressed.

Posted by: mildcigar at November 24, 2011 12:50 AM (VlZvE)

316 I don’t usually add my comments, but I will in this case. Nice work. I look forward to reading more.

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Posted by: nanonu at November 24, 2011 03:09 AM (2fxKp)

318 I don't get how people are disputing this? Monty always has to give you the option to switch doors and always will open a door that the car is not behind. Your initial choice therefore is inherently linked to months actions and thus your second choice. This is simple statistics not some crazy paradox...

Posted by: Newman at November 24, 2011 03:29 AM (p2FWD)

319 It's all BS. Either you can think with the facts or you can't which means either your smart or your not. Most liberals can't think, don't want to think, don't want the facts can't think with the facts and are stupid. The brain is better than any computer ever invented and the only way it screws up is if you have incorrect data or you don't have all the data. Chance is chance and guessing is guessing which means your operating without all the data. That's where dumb luck comes in.

Posted by: BensonII at November 24, 2011 08:22 AM (EzqQ+)

320 Getting a lib to hold even one thought in their head is a challenge.
"Look!! Squirrel!"

Posted by: chuck in st paul at November 24, 2011 09:42 AM (EhYdw)

321 Just heard on NPR that Hasbro has a new edition of Risk out that allows you to alter the board to create new countries, etc. Great idea, right? Not quite - the alterations are made by applying permanent stickers that cannot be removed without damaging the board. Hasbro must be a SCOAMF.

Posted by: sherlock at November 24, 2011 11:30 AM (81ia8)

322 Sleep is awesome and I'm a dope. I just woke up and saw it clearly. Of course switching is the would be the winning strategy. Monty's choice adds information.

It got clear when I expanded the number of "doors." 10,000,000 lottery tickets are presented. My first choice is almost guaranteed to be wrong. Monty cannot remove the winning ticket and leaves all but one. Switch and collect the winnings. Duh!

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 24, 2011 12:16 PM (JXaAZ)

323 all but = only.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 24, 2011 12:20 PM (JXaAZ)

324 I must be suffering from a Jack Daniels problem.

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 24, 2011 12:23 PM (JXaAZ)

325 what's particularly fascinating is that you are of the opinion this only applies to liberals. apparently cons are so strong minded and clever that this never happens to them. weird.

Posted by: liberal loon at November 24, 2011 01:03 PM (IoXgG)

326 On the off chance people are still paying attention to this thread:

@ 313:

Did you follow the brute force explanation at all? If you choose the switching strategy, there are 3 scenarios:

1. You choose wrong door #1, Monty opens wrong door #2, switching will get you the prize.

2. You choose wrong door #2. Monty opens wrong door #1, switching will get you the prize.

3. You choose prize door. Monty opens one of the wrong doors. Switching will lose you the prize.

3 possibilities. 2 possibilities result in prize. 1 possibility results in no prize. 2/3, basic probability. I'm not sure how the explanation can be made any simpler. /shrug

Posted by: ConservativeMonster at November 24, 2011 01:51 PM (aRr0l)

327 You people should be worrying about Ace's priority problem. It's Thanksgiving and there's a shiiteload of new movies out there. Your choices are running away to a broadcast football, drinking to excess or sweating it out here at the HQ in hopes Ace meets some babe at the theater and doesn't roll in until tomorrow evening to post his 30-page review. What do you do?

Posted by: RushBabe at November 24, 2011 05:37 PM (tQHzJ)

328 happy thanksgiving ´ğÓ¦

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Posted by: pipefittings at November 24, 2011 11:36 PM (oSGAu)

330 Wrong. First choice is 50/50, because one of the other doors will be eliminated. You are NOT picking one of three.

Posted by: bob at November 25, 2011 03:07 AM (IoG7C)

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Posted by: anna lucia at November 25, 2011 04:46 AM (eEsTX)

332 bob, it's 1 in 3 because the other door isn't removed yet. You can choose it and Monty will just remove a different door.

Try thinking it through with my lottery card example. The bigger numbers helped me a lot. Monty will be removing 9,999,998 lottery cards after your first choice. that does not make your first choice of card 50% likely to be a winner. It means that the one he leaves behind is 99.99998% likely to be a winner. See it?

Posted by: VRWC Agent at November 25, 2011 09:45 AM (JXaAZ)

333 Thanx 'Lottery' but I still think, even in your 10kk example, that the choice is 1:1 - either the winner or the loser ticket.

The rest are phantoms, illusions, because for this exercise Monty MUST remove them, therefore they are not real 'choices' at all. The question is deceptive. Attempts to prove it just compound the original fault by assuming something non-existent (this is also the solution to Zeno's Dichotomy - that it assumes 'points' which do not in fact exist).

A goat or a car. A winner or a loser. Adding extra goats or losers is just magicians slight of hand.

However! If deception gives us real information about the world (which I believe it shouldn't if the question is properly phrased, but I'm open to being wrong...) well, a world based on lies, fascinating if that is so! Weird.

I think 'Montys' is similar to Zeno's Dichotomy. I'm going to look into this.

Posted by: bob at November 25, 2011 03:32 PM (IoG7C)

334
The problem is they have no shame. They have absolutely no shame. They know what they are doing is wrong... they don't care. They know a major part of the public is stupid and won't figure it out, or doesn't want to figure it out. They have no shame.

Posted by: fused at November 26, 2011 04:41 PM (P34gz)

335 bob,

The odds are pretty good that you are going to grab one of the lottery tickets Monty would otherwise be obliged to remove. After removal, they are equally good that the choice remaining is a winner.

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