Not So Fast, Slub - I Think Ezra Klein's on Our Side!

Yesterday Slublog made a few excellent points regarding Ezra Klein's attempt to pin the majority of the recession's job losses on former President Bush. One of Slub's arguments was that the stats Klein used unfairly attributed all job losses through July 2009 to Bush, even though Bush was a lame duck President as of November 2008.

I'd like to take a slightly different tack in pointing out Klein's folly - how his attempt to slam Bush ends up undermining everything he believes. So contra Slublog, let's accept that bogus ground rule: Bush owns the economy through July 2009. Now take a look at one of the libs' favorite charts, a Nancy Pelosi special (click to embiggen):

Pelosi-Blame-Bush-Chart-Small.gif


You've probably seen it before - it's gone viral in the sinistrosphere.

But now let's modify the chart per Klein's groundrules:

PelosiChartModdedPerKleinSmall.gif


And there you have it: the formidable team of Ezra Klein and Robert Shapiro have proven that Obama's influence on the economy came well after Bush had set it on the road to recovery! According to them, Bush reduced job losses by 70% before Obama's policies took effect!!

I love it when the Left and the Right can come together on these sorts of issues.

Posted by: Geoff at 02:56 AM



Comments

1 Nice catch.

Posted by: rdbrewer at September 08, 2010 03:13 AM (CgRyx)

2 "(click to embiggen):"
I'm a huge fan of that other forum, too. ;o)
Don't you love lies disguised as spin?

Posted by: kakypat at September 08, 2010 03:13 AM (b8jZZ)

3 Why accept any of their asinine "ground rules"? Take the goddamn chart back to 2001 and compare with Zero. You will find tens of millions of jobs created before His Royal Dipshit showed up, blew $2 trillion and put out his Kools on the Oval Office rug that had to be replaced.

But ultimately, Bush also failed because he was behind Alan Greenspan, who is the true Ernst Blofeld of the past two decades. No single person's efforts, not even Jamie Gorelick's, can surpass Bush's (twice?) reappointed Fed chairman--the man who inflated the housing bubble that burst all over the world like a toxic afterbirth.

So yeah, Bush did okay by the economy before any us understood the new rules of easy money. But in hindsight, he should have shot Greenspan and tightened the sphincters of all 535 Congresscritters back in 2002 when they started cramming pork into the Homeland Security bill.

But, as for you Ezra...you know jack about economics. You know even less about politics. We are in a depression. We aren't coming out of it until Zero is long gone from Washington. Capital is on strike until the radicals leave the White House and the Speaker's office. You can wishcast a bunch of rubbish about what a great job Ear Leader is doing, but it won't work. He's a failure. Pelosi and Reid are failures. And Ben Bernanke is going to wind up as one of the most reviled figures of American history. But go ahead, keep it up, you little twerp. You will be selling apples from a cart before Zero gets the economy turned around.

Posted by: Fresh Air at September 08, 2010 03:22 AM (mNG9h)

4 Obama had one chance to fix things. Not really. It was impossible,because he would have had tomorph into Reagan within a month or so of being sworn in.
Why stimulous instead of tax cuts? (Hubris. Power. Stupidity.) Tax cuts would have been much more efficient.

Posted by: rdbrewer at September 08, 2010 03:39 AM (CgRyx)

5 Much better response, Geoff.

Posted by: Vince at September 08, 2010 03:48 AM (GpQZ/)

6 I prefer the version with the Pelosi effect identified.

Posted by: Jean at September 08, 2010 03:58 AM (CPefM)

7
7
I prefer the version with the Pelosi effect identified.

I do, too. I considered including that, but I thought it would muddy the point.

Posted by: geoff at September 08, 2010 04:02 AM (clc+K)

8 You do a great job illustrating stuff - can you take a shot at tracking U3/U6 to actual IRS payroll tax receipts?

Posted by: Jean at September 08, 2010 04:21 AM (CPefM)

9 RUSH was Right!

Posted by: Burped Petroleum at September 08, 2010 04:29 AM (d7Px0)

10 Has anyone here tried those boots and watches advertised here?

Posted by: Rewrite! at September 08, 2010 04:30 AM (d7Px0)

11 669!

Posted by: Rewrite! at September 08, 2010 04:30 AM (d7Px0)

12 It has been my hypotyhesis since early Feb. 2009 (when the big Stimulus was being discussed) that teh Adinistration's idea was that the economy would turn around more or less on its own by about August, 2009--google items from back around then, it was a pretty commonly held idea---so they figured they could just not waste the crisis and use it to pay off a lot of their client groups and then when the inevitable recovery started, say Porkulus was the reason. Win-Win for the Dems, if you don't mind teh govt going $800B deeper in debt.
Well, it didn't work out because while the worst of the job losses were indeed over by then, the economy hadn't really turned around, it was just bumping along the bottom, as it has been ever since.
You can argue whether ARRA made things worse (I think it did) or just didn't help very much, but the facts are the facts.
What I find interesting about al this is that Ezra Klein is a ttal idiot on most things, but esp. ecoomics and govt. finance... someone fed him this line, he didn't come up with it himself. I think it was fro inside the ADministration and the logic is based on how they were thinking back in Feb 2009, with a bit of a twist. And Geoff's post gets it exactly right.
I would argue that if NOT for Porkulus, the idea that Bush owned the economy until about mid-2009 would be reasonable. However, by its massive interventions as soon as it came in, not just Porkulus but the Omnibus 2009Approp bill passed a month later with an additional $400B of deficit, and all the moves toward health care, cap-and-trade, card-check, etc., the new Admin really took ownership by February-March because it totally rearranged people's expectations and the resultant actions (i.e., capital became scared to hire or invest domestically and went to teh sidelines and started to live off the interest rate arbitrage the Fed created to help teh big banks).

Posted by: Marty at September 08, 2010 04:34 AM (JFIEO)

13 Pwnt

Posted by: lurker at September 08, 2010 04:53 AM (0vV7/)

14 But ultimately, Bush also failed because he was behind Alan Greenspan,
who is the true Ernst Blofeld of the past two decades. No single
person's efforts, not even Jamie Gorelick's, can surpass Bush's (twice?)
reappointed Fed chairman--the man who inflated the housing bubble that
burst all over the world like a toxic afterbirth.


You need to read Thomas Sowell's book on the housing boom/bust. He does know jack about economics and Greenspan wasn't the cause of the boom. The low interest rates "enabled" the boom in some ways, but did not cause it.

On top of that Greenspan warned congress on two different occasions that the activities of FF were placing the entire economy in jeopardy. Just as Bush and McCain both also warned but were blocked by the Dems aided and abetted by the RINOs.


Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 06:24 AM (/jbAw)

15 16 - Slightly off topic, but I've seen this a few times (especially here and at HA) and I think we need to address it: Bush and McCain weren't blocked by RINOs in fixing FredNFran. McCain himself is a RINO, after all, and can frequently get the cooperation of the others when he really wants to do so.
The fixing of FredNFran was blocked by wimpy senators of all spectrums who didn't want to pay a politcal price for doing something necessary. The only reason Democrats are even looking at tax cuts (whether extending the Bush cuts, or new "cuts for the middle class" (ptuie)) is because they don't want to pay a polical price for having a defacto tax increase hit the whole country in the middle of a recession.
A RINO is a "Republican In Name Only" who seems absolutely giddy about opportunities to stab actual conservatives in the back. Not even true conservatives wanted to pay the price for reigning in FredNFran, the same way most true conservatives don't want to pay the price for fixing (read: repealing) Social Security and Medicare.
To my mind, this is another good argument in favor of term limits, since if you know you can't get elected again, you're more likely to have the intestinal fortitude necessary to do those things that are needed but unpleasant.

Posted by: AllenG at September 08, 2010 06:38 AM (AWX5Z)

16 So yeah, Bush did okay by the economy before any us understood the new rules of easy money.

I understood them. I even wrote them down.

Posted by: Ludwig von Mises at September 08, 2010 06:39 AM (GiUTT)

17 Somebody remind me which branch of government controls the purse-strings, because obviously all those schools I went to, my encyclopedia, my history books - they all have it wrong, apparently.

I mean, if the PRESIDENT is responsible for spending, taxes, and the economy in general, why push so hard for a Republican Congress? I mean, what does Congress do anyway, since everything else gets laid at the foot of the President?

The fucking red line on that chart belongs on the far left edge, because the Dems took the purse strings in 2007 and started spending like drunken crack whores with stolen credit cards. They DESPERATELY want to Blame Bush and for some idiot reason EVERYONE is cooperating with them.

It's maddening, seriously, like jump-off-a-bridge maddening.

Not saying Bush didn't screw up, just saying that when the issue comes up, it's as if Congress never existed.

Posted by: Merovign, Strong on His Mountain at September 08, 2010 06:45 AM (bxiXv)

18 As for Bush "owning" the economy until 2009 that is absolute rubbish. While true government policy usually takes about 6 months to even two years to be "felt", unless congress is enacting policy by request of the President, he has nothing to do with it.

Congress writes the budget, spends the money, raises taxes etc. Bush can take credit for the recovery because he pushed through the tax cuts and did make an effort at minimizing the creation of new regulations which are just as harmful as tax hikes. But lo, in 2006 thanks to all of those RINOs who trashed the Republican brand a new posse came to town.

There are tow things that the "government" does effect the economy. The first is taxes. Raising taxes has an almost immediate negative impact on the economy (<6 months). Lowering taxes helps the economy but it takes longer for the impact to be felt. The other thing is the money supply which is controlled by the fed. Tightening the supply has an immediate negative impact and loosening it helps but, again, it takes longer. Loosening the money supply also causes inflation if it is done too much and too long. They like to say that the fed is not part of the government but we all know that is a lie.

So looking back to 2006 when the commies took over congress we saw a host of new spending. We saw calls for tax increases but no actual action. And then we saw finally some "worry" about the loose money causing inflation. By some strange "coincidence" the fed started raising interest rates in the year leading up to the election.

That raising of the rates is what ultimately popped the housing "bubble". The economy became trashed when people found out how bad the investment banks were going to be impacted because of all the bad loans.

Still, if the government had maintained a small posture it would have been bad initially, but we would be on the road to recovery already. Instead we are mired in another depression and for the same reason as the 30s. Massive government intervention.

Government spending does not really "stimulate" the economy because it simply takes money from the economy that would have been spent by the private sector and spends it on other things in the government sector. Especially when 75% of the "stimulus" is nothing more than pure Democrat social programs for welfare leaches who hire nobody.

Sure the local 7-11s will see an increase in Lotto sales, the wine stores will sell more Boone's Farm and the local crack dealers will benefit, but that is all.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 06:51 AM (/jbAw)

19 McCain himself is a RINO, after all, and can frequently get the cooperation of the others when he really wants to do so.

McCain is a RINO on almost everything except budget items. There is closer to a real Republican. (But that is about the only thing he is true on)

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 06:53 AM (/jbAw)

20 The fixing of FredNFran was blocked by wimpy senators of all spectrums
who didn't want to pay a politcal price for doing something necessary.

True somewhat, but it was blocked almost tyo a man by Democrats and the few Republicans who sided with them.

Think about this; Piss Dodd and Bwarney Fwank to this day are still saying that FF are in good shape and need no reform. In addition, Piss Dodd has yet another bill out there expanding the CRA style government housing aid.

The Democraps really have not got a clue on how the economy operates.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 06:57 AM (/jbAw)

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Already long ago, from when we sold
our vote to no man, the People have abdicated our duties; for the People who
once upon a time handed out military command, high civil office, legions
everything, now restrains itself and anxiously hopes for just two things: bread
and circuses. (Decimus Iunius Iuvenalis, describing the end of the Roman republic in
Satire X, A.D. 200)

The sad truth is that we are now past the tipping point. More people get from the government than pay taxes to the government. Even if we had Pres. Palin, Speaker Bachman, and Maj. Leader Angle in office tomorrow, it would still take 20 years or more to fix this mess.

Nevertheless, Trig's mom for president.

Never entrust power to anyone not willing to surrender it.

Posted by: CallMeIshmael at September 08, 2010 07:03 AM (UL/HQ)

22 It is different from Jordan shoes, as you want to buy a pair of cheap Jordan shoes then you could choose the different generation of it, buy for the Cartier, Links of London and Tiffany Jewellery you many choose the different items for the tiffany jewelry there have items as follow: Tiffany Bracelets,Tiffany Earrings,Tiffany Necklaces,Tiffany Rings,Tiffany Charms. If you want to buy tiffany just choose the item you like.

Posted by: Abercrombie and Fitch at September 08, 2010 07:06 AM (MTj50)

23 Perhaps a new chart overlay is in order.

What does Obama's job loss/gain chart look like when you subtract Census hiring?

The Census isn't an Obama policy. It was funded long ago. If Ezra Klein rules are in effect, one might attribute Census hiring to President Bush and his budgets.

Posted by: wtfci at September 08, 2010 07:09 AM (R4rMI)

24 Regarding Ezra Klein: I don't want to see him selling apples on the street corner.

I want to see him eating out of a trash can.

Posted by: Miss Marple at September 08, 2010 07:10 AM (bixjr)

25 I like to blame the passing of the minimum wage bill myself as the beginning of the crash.

Starting in July of 07 through July of 09.

Posted by: Bill at September 08, 2010 07:24 AM (LZSir)

26 I like to blame the passing of the minimum wage bill myself as the beginning of the crash.

When they passed that bill we had a lot of discussion about it so I went out and did some research for all the increases since WWII.

Believe it or not, the minimum wage increases have very little impact on the economy overall. That is because the minimum wage only impacts a very small percentage of the workforce.

Typically these are part time youth workers and entry level workers at shops and some small businesses. So what happens is for every minimum wage increase you have, you get an uptick in the unemployment of young workers.

That is what we have going on now. Listed overall unemployment is currently ~ 9.5%. It is much higher for youth in the 18 to 20 range.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 07:35 AM (/jbAw)

27 Axelrod on FF now lying about "tax cuts" for the rich and that they have already given 20B in tax cuts to Americans.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 07:36 AM (/jbAw)

28 Axelrod: "Republicans want to go back to the Bush policies that caused this recession".

That is what they are running on this fall. I would love to have heard one of those clowns on FF tell him that the Democraps own this recession lock stock and barrel.

Oops, Greta just called him on running against Bush again. He then said "its not about Bush, its Republicans in congress" hahahaha, he can't even keep his lies straight.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 07:44 AM (/jbAw)

29
Work these numbers from early 2008, when it first became evident Obama was going to be a serious contender. The stronger Obama's campaign became, the worse the economy got.

The whole debacle can be summed up with this: regime uncertainty.

The unfortunate and unfair irony is that with the Republicans taking over the House and perhaps even the Senate, a lot of the regime uncertainty will go away and the economy will finally begin to improve.

For which Obama will claim all the credit and thus improve his own chances for re-election. THAT is the 94 and 96 parallel that most worries me.

Posted by: J.E.Carter at September 08, 2010 07:51 AM (u+8qs)

30 Government spending does not really "stimulate" the
economy because it simply takes money from the economy that would have
been spent by the private sector and spends it on other things in the
government sector. Especially when 75% of the "stimulus" is nothing more
than pure Democrat social programs for welfare leaches who hire nobody.

Posted by: Vic
------------
Usually, that is true.. but this time they didn't take money from the economy. It was all borrowed. They took money from future economies.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 08, 2010 07:57 AM (Do528)

31 Are they including the jobs, 'saved, created, or lives touched, in this rubric, because otherwise I can't see how they come to these numbers

Posted by: dr. lizardo at September 08, 2010 07:58 AM (bz+co)

32 For which Obama will claim all the credit and thus improve his own chances for re-election.

Clinton won reelection in 1996 for two major reasons:

Number 1 reason: Republicans nominated another tired old squish because it was "his turn" (sound familiar).

Number 2: Asshole trickster Ross Perot siphoned off 8 million votes, mostly from Republicans.

Clinton actually got less than 50% of the vote.

As for the number one reason, perhaps with all the new fresh conservative blood going into congress this fall the squish side of the Republican leadership will be diminished and we can get some real damn primary reform so that the primaries do not favor the squishes.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 07:59 AM (/jbAw)

33 One other graph that is total bullshit is the deficit graph. They show Bush's last year as being something like $1.4 Trillion deficit.

That is complete and utter bullshit. While Bush did spend too much, that last year included TARP. But they forget to tell you that all but $1 Billion of TARP money has been paid back! So, when you subtract TARP from Bush's deficits, the contrast between Bush and Obama is quite striking.

BTW - Where the fuck IS that TARP money that got paid back?

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 08, 2010 08:01 AM (Do528)

34 Ooops.. I mean all but $100 Billion has been paid back.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 08, 2010 08:03 AM (Do528)

35 The TARP money that has been repaid is sitting in US Treasury accounts. Unfortunately, Congress has not told the US Treasury how it can allocate those funds.

Posted by: wtfci at September 08, 2010 08:07 AM (R4rMI)

36 obama......like most politicians wants to have it both ways......take credit and pass out blame for the same time period.........

Posted by: phoenixgirl at September 08, 2010 08:11 AM (eOXTH)

37 As far as TARP spending goes although the bill became law in 2008, the actual spending of the money did not occur until 2009.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 08:13 AM (/jbAw)

38 Yes, but the whole reason, is the money wasn't used to shore up and buy up those toxic assets, they were wasted in buying other bank stock, acquiring auto companies, et al. It's a scam right out of the better one of the Ocean 11 films

Posted by: dr. lizardo at September 08, 2010 08:13 AM (bz+co)

39 Now subtract the census workers and the teenager summer jobs at the beach, amusement parks, an d pools and see if Obama's numbers.

Posted by: dagny at September 08, 2010 08:26 AM (OrLWv)

40 Carville's polling firm just released its results for polling.Its sample claims they voted for McCain Obama- 45 45. Talk about a lot of regret there.
Drop off voters support the Democrats but are NOT amongst the likely voters.
Amongst LIKELY voters Republicans have a 49-42 lead in the generic ballot.

suck it Gallup.

Posted by: CAC at September 08, 2010 08:27 AM (lV4Fs)

41 ezra needs to stand by a window. and you are racist.

Posted by: pissed off and ready to rumble at September 08, 2010 08:28 AM (n0C4a)

42 Bottom line: Ezra Klein is a dishonest tool.

Posted by: chemjeff at September 08, 2010 08:36 AM (kUEkq)

43 More "Good" News

The Old Farmer's Almanac for 2011 was released yesterday

http://tinyurl.com/3y2qdje

And guess what?

More Globull Cooling. They have pretty much got it right the last two years in which I have been tracking it. The only thing they missed out on last year was the snow in the South East. It did get a lot colder, and it did have a lot of precipitation, but the two did not seem to coincide. We got rain on the days when it wasn't so cold and on the cold days no rain.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 08:37 AM (/jbAw)

44 I love it when the Left and the Right can come together on these sorts of issues
Bi-partisanship is such a beeyootifool thing <sob> <wipes tears>

Posted by: Ezra Klein bot at September 08, 2010 08:37 AM (boNGU)

45 I think Bill Fleckenstein would lay the largest blame for the destructive "Bubblemania" on Greenspan. Yes, in 1993 (or so) he warned of "irrational exuberance", but went back to being "Easy Al". In 2005 or so, he warned that we were playing with fire with the derivatives and leverage, but Democrats brushed him aside and easy money continued.

The "no income no job no problem" loans were a big factor, as well as passing the loans off from those that made them, to others to take the loss made a mess too. But this train wreck was coming for a long time.

For all Obama's whining about the mess he "inherited" (even though he voted for most of it as senator), remember Bush tackled Clinton's dot com bubble (Nazdaq 5100), Enron, 9/11, and the housing breakdown, not to mention fighting a war. All Obama has done is used "blame Bush" to quadruple the debt on the Democrats old wish list, leaving most of the details up in the air for unelected bureaucrats to dictate after this election.

This jobs chart needs to be understood in light of smart people (job creators) anticipating a Democrat president (and McCain would have been like a Dem), and getting even worse as it anticipated a Marxist president with a super Democrat congress. Smart people were running for cover in advance, which may well have precipitated the popping of the bubbles in early 2008.

The blue bars should start back in mid 2008 ... something wicked was this way coming.

Posted by: bill at September 08, 2010 08:43 AM (xWAQg)

46 LOL, Alaska paper says not so fast with the Murk run as a Libertarian described by the AP article.

http://tinyurl.com/2faz4dg

Libertarians cool to Murkowski candidacySen. Lisa Murkowski met with Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate David
Haase on Tuesday to talk about taking his place and running on the
Libertarian ticket. But Alaska Libertarian Party Chairman Scott Kolhaas
said after the meeting that "I don't think it's happening."


Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 08:45 AM (/jbAw)

47 Meanwhile....

Pay careful attention to the complete incoherence of this latest package of things you-know-who is going to throw out there today...tax credits for research and new equipment, but increases in corporate taxes and apparently, he will come out strong for increasing taxes on 250K+ incomes (I love how that household income level has come to represent "the wealthy") through the expiration of the Bush cuts. They really seem to think this will give them a populist edge with unemployment at all-time highs.

I really hope the big unforeseen foreign policy crisis doesn't show up on this guy's watch because I wouldn't trust this "team" with managing a Taco Bell.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at September 08, 2010 08:47 AM (rNJC9)

48 I love it when the Left and the Right can come together on these sorts of issues

That's exactly why I've perfected my reach across the aisle--but don't you dare call me a Maverick!

Posted by: Juan MavCain at September 08, 2010 08:47 AM (8GYOu)

49 If the Democrats want to keep playing "Blame Bush," is it okay if we play "Blame Clinton"?

Who is responsible for the recession that began in March of 2001, only two months after Bush took office?

Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at September 08, 2010 08:48 AM (u70z9)

50 Well there's that, but seeing how delicately balanced the economy was, raising interest rates, 18 consecutive times, almost as if to punish us for Bush, the ARMS reset and along with the gas price hike, popped the subprime bubble

Posted by: dr. lizardo at September 08, 2010 08:48 AM (bz+co)

51 Vic - 2010 has been the warmest year on record so far. A few cold days down your way isn't exactly scientific..

Not that I buy into the whole global warming thing.. We've only been measuring for a blink of an eye.. but it's been really warm this year, globally.

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 08, 2010 08:50 AM (Do528)

52 Real Clear Politics is so full of shit its not funny.
They had the NBC poll showing the GOP up 9 in the likely voter ALL FUCKING DAY yesterday...
but never added it to their average.
but gallups pathetic christina hendricks bounce-around gets thrown on their faster than a Chris Brown fist sandwich.

ITS STILL NOT THERE, so the average dropped.
Democracy Corps released their result yesterday as well- R+7, and theirs have been incorporated in the past, but of course, no listing yet again.

The actual average right now using the 7 most recent polls (they increased the # of polls in the average I guess to hold onto that pathetic Newsweek poll)
Gallup-tied
DemCorp R+7
NBC- R+9
ABC- R+13
Ras R+12
CNN R+7
Fox R+9
AVG R+8.1

Posted by: CAC at September 08, 2010 08:55 AM (lV4Fs)

53 Smart people were running for cover in advance, which may well have precipitated the popping of the bubbles in early 2008.

The bubble actually started "popping" in 2007 when the fed raised the interest rates. That started the chain reaction that crushed the economy in late 2008.

What happened was that the interest rate increase made it more expensive and harder to finance a mortgage. That slowed home sales.

Slowing home sales then caused the inability to refinance the "bad" mortgages and for bank sales of the defaulted mortgages. The banks then began to eat more and more of the bad mortgages. That in turn caused the insurance agency AIG to have to pay off on the "bad" mortgages. Also, the "investment" paper based on the bad mortgages started crashing.

When FF, the banks, and investment houses actually started going belly-up the public saw what was happening.

But yes, the "smart" money knew that the whole thing was a big house of cards and they started getting out at the first sign. Probably when the fed actually raised the interest rates in 2007.


Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 08:56 AM (/jbAw)

54 Vic - 2010 has been the warmest year on record so far.

Actually that is a lie the MFM and NOAA want you to believe. It is based on doctored data which has zero validity.

Posted by: Vic at September 08, 2010 08:57 AM (/jbAw)

55 Just saw on HotAir/Politico that Chris Christie is doing an "endorsement tour". Wonder if he'll stop by his little neighbor Delaware and give his two cents. That would be pretty big.

Oh, and Chi-town Jerry, SoCal was colder this year than in any year since 1904. There is NO method of measuring "global temperature" that is at all useful. The old system of corrupted and imaginary temperature sensors is still the gold standard by which all of these "hotter than ever" declarations are based.

Posted by: Lincolntf at September 08, 2010 08:59 AM (hV/FZ)

56 But Alaska Libertarian Party Chairman Scott Kolhaas said after the meeting that "I don't think it's happening."
That's diplo-speak for "screw that scrunt"

Posted by: beedubya at September 08, 2010 09:07 AM (H3OMm)

57 Geoff, can we borrow you for the FF League so you can break out via charts who we should start this weekend?

Posted by: CDR M at September 08, 2010 09:09 AM (5I8G0)

58 So chi-town, what happens when it gets colder again and quite possibly a very long and cold winter?

Posted by: CDR M at September 08, 2010 09:12 AM (5I8G0)

59 Like I said yesterday, I'll accept the narrative that Bush tanked the economy and Obama has kept it down.

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at September 08, 2010 09:15 AM (Bs34i)

60 ...

Posted by: Perry the Platypus at September 08, 2010 09:17 AM (WDySP)

61 -- 49: It's not the 'unforseen' crises that will be the problem. It's the brick wall the whole bloody planet can see us barreling towards, but which the present Badministration pays no attention to, that's going to get us in trouble at this point.

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at September 08, 2010 09:18 AM (IkEhE)

62 Somewhat related is what I posted in the overnight thread: Friends told me last night that Xerox is hiring in several states, including Hawaii. If you have a tech background, you might want to check out the employment opportunities from the Xerox home page. Starting wages apparently aren't as high as they used to be, but you do get benefits. Just passing it on to moron

Posted by: texette at September 08, 2010 09:19 AM (zwHeY)

63 Also isn't most of the positive numbers in the Obama blue side due to temporary employment for the census?

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at September 08, 2010 09:24 AM (Bs34i)

64 Ack! Cotmment posted itself before I finished! Also took 6 attempts to refresh page--stopped well before bottom of comments. This loading problem is happening more frequently for me. Is anyone else having site loading problems?

Posted by: texette at September 08, 2010 09:27 AM (zwHeY)

65 In terms of determining sane policy, this whole President-focused line of "inquiry" is a distraction, IMHO. I guess that's why the left pursued it. It seems a little silly to argue over it, even if in the end they end up being hoist by their own petard, as is the case here.

Back on the planet where Ideas and Laws (and not just 'Men') matter, I think what we really want to know is which overall economic POLICY 'owns' the economy, not which President. In the end, this media-induced concentration on personalities drags the discussion down to Ezra's adolescent level.

Yes, math is hard. Yes, getting accurate statistics and an accurate record of past events is hard (sometimes futile). Yes, during election season it's easier to focus on personae than policy. And yes, if we shrug off the hard work and go with the easy stuff - as the left does - then we end up once again trapped in the untenable context of their newspeak vocabulary, their adolescent sensibilities, their cult of personality mindset and their collectivism=progress ground rules.

Through numerous discussion with various folks after posting this (which got pretty widespread exposure), I realized that the chain of evidence leading back from the murder of our economy is pretty frakking clear. It made me realize my biggest mistake in that effort: arguing over the 'WHO' is less productive in the long run than clearly identifying the WHAT, the WHEN and the WHY. Because in that latter context, Bush's RINO domestic agenda was just as integral to the proximate cause of our predicament as Clinton's affirmative action lending program and the executive action that forced lenders to "aggressively, take a greater risk" (the Typhoid Mary of both the housing bubble and the AAA-rated bad debt that poisoned the securities market via GSE corruption).

This is the Young Guns' message, I think, and it still seems clear to me that this is the message America needs and wants to hear - as opposed to "who's to blame". Again. That is, focus - with frickin' laser beams, if necessary - on the monumentally stupid ideas and actions that caused the damage. Getting hung up on defending or attacking the people involved just plays to the strengths of the left, IMHO. I don't know how to do this well. That is, I'm not sure how to get the message across in a way that will grab the attention of the electorate. I'm thinking more creative minds can find a way, though.

Posted by: goy at September 08, 2010 09:37 AM (AfU1B)

66 Never forget the Pelosi Effect

January 4th 2007: The day Pelosi became Speaker of the Democratically controlled 110th Congress

DJIA end of session: 12,800.18
National unemployment rate for December 2006: 4.5%
2006 Federal Budget Deficit: $247.7 billion
Average GDP growth for 2006: 3.4%
Median Home Value in December 2006: $244,700 July 2010 $182,500
Average price for Regular Unleaded Gasoline December 2006: $2.30
Federal Debt as % of GDP 2006: 64.55 2008: 70.00 2009: 90.36 2010(projected): 94.27
Nonfarm employment in thousands Dec 2006: 137,000 July 2010: 130,242

In the 12 years of Republican Congress, average annual deficit: $104 billion

Posted by: toby928 at September 08, 2010 09:40 AM (evdj2)

67 Vic - you are so right. I worked in the mortgage business and we were screaming in 2006 about Greenspan raising the Fed funds rate for no apparent reason. For a whole year we expected the market to crash, but it didn't, because the lenders got creative. Wewatched as our competitors came out with 3-year-adjustables, then two-year-adjustables, then pay-option-adjustables -- all trying to keep the market inflated so entry level buyers could get a mortgage they could afford on an average salary. The higher rates made these crazier and crazier mortgages the only ones people could afford as home prices kept going up. And Fannie and Freddie were buying a lot of them, to keep themselves competitive with the private-label securitizers. They were inadvertently spreading a deadly virus all though the system.
Then in August of 2006 Congress held hearings on all these exotic mortgages and pushed the bank regulators to crack down on them. You can trace the end of the great housing boom to that exact point. When the banks knew the lending jig was up, they were screwed. All of a sudden they couldn't go back to their marginal borrowers and refinance them into another 2-year-adjustable loan. They had to start pricing the pay-option loans as though they were higher-rate subprime loans. The mark-to-market accounting rules forced them to start marking down these loans when they started to default and taking huge reserves for losses. And then we were off to the races in a downward spiral of writedowns, stock collapses, defaults....and you know how the story ends.
The company I worked for - a nonbank - had a prime and a subprime arm. When the market turned the subprime arm had thousands of loans on the books that were suddenly unsellable and unpriceable. Even thought the prime arm was still making good loans and selling them to Fannie Mae, the subprime arm brought down the whole company. It became insolvent almost overnight, management was fired, bonuses canceled, huge layoffs ensued. The company eventually was forced to become a bank and take TARP money to survive.
Over a half-million people once worked in this industry, most making at or over six figure. About half of them are gone now, including me,and those jobs are not coming back. Our benevolent government has engineered such a massive consolidaton in the lending industry that today five companies are responsible for 80% of the mortgages made in America. If you can't get a job with one of those companies you are screwed.
I'm convinced that Democrats wanted it this way. They hate competition and they love having a handful of big companies that they can keep their boots on to do their bidding. This isn't socialism, it's more like Peronism. The new FinReg bill prettymuch turns what is left of the mortgage business into a public utility. The banks are pretending to still be private for-profit companies but gthey are in name only.

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Posted by: bugsrus at September 08, 2010 10:14 AM (kTpXU)

71 Oh, look. The lefties have a chart. One that's "gone viral." How nice for them!

I'm sure this big important chart that they're all worked up about is going to make a huge difference in November.

It'll probably send Obama's approval ratings soaring, too.

Yup. Don't worry about a thing, lefties. Everything is going to turn out just fine.

Afterall, you have...

a chart.


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Posted by: luifyfE at September 08, 2010 10:45 AM (KU/2r)

73 IMO, we should keep this simple.

Before Obama, Pelosi, and Reid took Congress at the end of 2006 the economy was humming. Within a year of them taking power the economy began to fall apart, and things have only accelerated since Obama won the presidency.

As someone did the other day, just compare Sept 1 2006 with Sept 1 2010 and ask people if they are better off now.

Posted by: 18-1 at September 08, 2010 11:13 AM (7BU4a)

74 Thanks Rockmom and Vic ... I'd forgotten Greenspan had raised rates, but I do remember talk of aiming for a soft landing. I don't recall when rates went back down, but so many loans and the market seemed predicated on prices rising (exponentially) that it was doomed.

Now they seem to be trying to go parabolic up again, if not Cloward Piven.

Posted by: bill at September 08, 2010 11:27 AM (xWAQg)

75 53 Vic - 2010 has been the warmest year on record so far. A few cold days down your way isn't exactly scientific..
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at September 08, 2010 08:50 AM (Do52
Neither is depending only on GISS data when HadCrut, UAH, and RSS all radically disagree. GISS is insanely high for this year, and so dishonest hacks are ignoring all the other data and focusing on them.Frankly, ALL the data is suspect, but ignoring the 3/4 who disagree with you deserves a reason.Unless you just believe everything you hear on CNN, which is sounding more and more likely.Do your homework kid, you won't embarrass yourself.

Posted by: Merovign, Strong on His Mountain at September 08, 2010 12:17 PM (bxiXv)

76 BTW, shouldn't the chart include the whole Bush administration? It doesn't seem quite fair to compare just a small sample of Bush's tenure.
Geoff, can you do some chart fu and show the whole of Bush's term in office.

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at September 08, 2010 12:47 PM (4JpPD)

77 First off, this guy's an idiot. and dishonest. Those Bush charts start at 2007 but W's policies have been in effect since 2003 or so. Also, this recession's unemployment was caused by the collapse of the housing bubble created by DNC machinated subsidies. It also ignores the reign of Nancy started early 2007.

Posted by: joeindc44 at September 08, 2010 01:19 PM (QxSug)

78 There's an even better chart out there that shows the employment losses and growth in all recessions and recoveries going back to the beginning of the 20th century. It shows employment starting to grow much sooner in every single previous recession, including the Great Depression. This includes the 2000 dot-com bust, and of course Bush never gets any credit for making that recession a relatively mild one.

Posted by: rockmom at September 08, 2010 01:51 PM (w/gVZ)

79
There's an even better chart out there that shows the employment losses
and growth in all recessions and recoveries going back to the beginning
of the 20th century.

That chart is maintained by Calculated Risk, a blog I highly recommend.

Posted by: geoff at September 08, 2010 02:11 PM (clc+K)

80 It's pretty convienent for this dolt to choose the inversion point as the point at which to hand over credit. Gee, how did we come to choose a date 15 months after the inauguration? BTW, Reagan had to wait until 2003 to get his tax cuts activated.

Posted by: joeindc44 at September 08, 2010 03:29 PM (QxSug)

81 This is the chart that should have Barry shitting BB's.


Posted by: toby928 at September 08, 2010 03:36 PM (S5YRY)

82
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This is the chart that should have Barry shitting BB's.

That's the one. But you should link to it directly at Calculated Risk, instead of one of the people who borrowed their chart

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83 Wow there's really a cliff there in jobs when the census ended eh?

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