Toomey Pulling Away From Sestak, Obama's Support Craters In Keystone State

Sestak must be wondering if that job offer from Obama is still on the table.

Pat Toomey has taken a 45-36 lead in the Pennsylvania Senate race. That's a big change from the tie PPP saw in a June survey of the race but pretty similar to the solid Toomey lead our April survey showed.

Toomey's winning for the same reasons most Republican candidates across the country are doing well in key races right now:

-He has a 50-23 lead with independent voters.

-He's benefiting from a much more unified party, as he leads 74-9 with Republicans while Sestak is currently up only 64-15 with Democrats.

...The biggest key to the race is probably Obama's considerably fallen popularity. His approval rating stands at only 40% with 55% of voters disapproving of him, one of the biggest declines from 2008 performance we've seen for him anywhere in the country. Part of Obama's low numbers is a reflection of the Republican trending voter pool in the state this year, but there are also more people who voted for Obama but disapprove of him now in Pennsylvania than there are most places.

All those damn bitter clingers and Mutha "rednecks".

As you may have noticed, this is a PPP poll and they are the new official polling outfit for Kos, so you know, it's not going to be GOP friendly. Yet the Democrat still gets walloped and Obama's numbers are still in the tank.

Posted by: DrewM. at 11:21 AM



Comments

1 I suppose the difference in images -- Toomey is a patriotic American and Sestak is inextricably tied to a sleazy, corrupt, America-hating regime -- doesn't enter into this at all.

All along, I've felt that if average American voters, those who don't really pay attention to what's happening in the scummy world of politics, pay attention to what's happening, the Dems will go down to epic defeat and Osama Obama might as well barricade himself in the White House while awaiting impeachment.

Maybe the people are waking up at last.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 17, 2010 11:28 AM (Ulu3i)

2 FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU! FUCK YOU!

Posted by: KAYINMAINE at August 17, 2010 11:29 AM (zqDLI)

3 And just in case he forgot (which is a strong, strong possibility):

Pack, Arlen.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 17, 2010 11:29 AM (NvFZs)

4 While it's too early to start counting chickens, it looks like this is another state where the Republicans won't have to contest as heavily as thought.

I guess that frees up more money to spend on the Senate races in Wisconsin, Washington, California, and Nevada.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 17, 2010 11:29 AM (wDKwf)

5 It isn't too late to write my name in. Yeaaah.

Posted by: Arlen Specter at August 17, 2010 11:29 AM (YXmuI)

6 Annnnd, the crazies are back.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 17, 2010 11:30 AM (NvFZs)

7 No mercy.

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at August 17, 2010 11:30 AM (IkEhE)

8 Part of Obama's low numbers is a reflection of the Republican trending voter pool in the state this year, but there are also more people who voted for Obama but disapprove of him now in Pennsylvania than there are most places. Our national poll last week found only 7% of Obama voters are now unhappy with the job he's doing but in Pennsylvania the figure is 15%.
I'm looking at YOU, Philadelphia suburbs.

Posted by: kallisto at August 17, 2010 11:30 AM (+FkcS)

9 Oh, I can't wait until they call the lame duck session. It's gonna be fun.

Posted by: Editor at August 17, 2010 11:30 AM (pUfK9)

10 I just received two Toomey yard signs last night and put them up in my yard.
i credit the bounce to that.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:31 AM (wuv1c)

11 KOS has an official polling company? WTF is with that?

Ace, besides an official drink, Valu Rite, what have us guys endorsed?

Posted by: Kemp at August 17, 2010 11:31 AM (vSiVD)

12 I was dumbfounded they still voted Murtha in.

Posted by: willow at August 17, 2010 11:32 AM (SbsTp)

13 I just received two Toomey yard signs last night and put them up in my yard.

i credit the bounce to that.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:31 AM (wuv1c)

I am sure that was you. But don't you live in Utah?
/

Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 17, 2010 11:32 AM (0GFWk)

14 Ace, besides an official drink, Valu Rite, what have us guys endorsed?

Posted by: Kemp at August 17, 2010 11:31 AM (vSiVD)
Blow Strippers. Also, Robert Rizzo.

Posted by: Editor at August 17, 2010 11:33 AM (pUfK9)

15 hmm, my eyes, my eyes, c'mon i haven't had enough coffee yet. Play nice.

Posted by: willow at August 17, 2010 11:33 AM (SbsTp)

16
PA has over one million more Dems than Republicans but some are Reagan Democrats and Sestak is running a horrible campaign. Still, I wouldn't be surprised if Sestak won.

Here are some more numbers out of PA that are too good to be true:

Pennsylvania 3: Despite challenger Mike Kelly having just 62
percent name recognition, he leads Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper by a 52 to 38
percent margin.

Pennsylvania 10: Despite challenger Tom Marino having just 59
percent name recognition compared to Rep. Chris Carney’s 94 percent name
recognition, Marino leads on the ballot by a 52 to 37 percent margin.

Pennsylvania 11: Challenger Lou Barletta’s 93 percent name
recognition is very similar to Rep. Paul Kanjorski’s 96 percent, and
Barletta holds a 52 to 41 percent lead on the ballot.

Pennsylvania 12: Challenger Tim Burns’s 84 percent name
recognition is almost identical to Rep. Mark Critz’s 82 percent, and
Burns leads on the ballot by a slim 44 to 40 percent margin.
--------

I'm praying the vote follows the poll.

Posted by: Ed Anger at August 17, 2010 11:33 AM (7+pP9)

17 KOS has an official polling company? WTF is with that?Ace, besides an official drink, Valu Rite, what have us guys endorsed?
Posted by: Kemp at August 17, 2010 11:31 AM (vSiVD)
Don't tell me you forgot about the pudding?

Posted by: 141 Driver at August 17, 2010 11:34 AM (DXa7u)

18 Kay, ignore the voices and take your meds. And no, the pizza is NOT suppurating. Just eat it.

Posted by: joncelli at August 17, 2010 11:34 AM (RD7QR)

19 Did you forget the are also racist?
Just 'cause they voted for the child-god once, they must continue to support them or their racism will return.

Posted by: jimmuy at August 17, 2010 11:35 AM (jXG2x)

20
Pennsylvania residents might want to consider throwing out another democrat creep when the opportunity arrives.

Senator Robert Casey (D., Pa.) and Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D., N.D.) are pushing
legislation that would commit taxpayers’ dollars to bailing out the
Teamsters’ retirement pension fund.

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at August 17, 2010 11:35 AM (0fzsA)

21 "this is a PPP poll and they are the new official polling outfit for Kos, so you know"
I onder if Marky gave them the same guidance as he did R2K.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 17, 2010 11:35 AM (fLHQe)

22 I will treat Sestak respectfully, like a lady. And I expect the same in return.

Posted by: Arlen Specter at August 17, 2010 11:36 AM (AZGON)

23 wonder even

Posted by: Burn the Witch at August 17, 2010 11:36 AM (fLHQe)

24
How much of the new GOP support is really disgust with Ebola and DEMs?

The GOP needs to govern well if they get the chance because I suspect the Public is sick of jumping back and forth.

These are not ordinary times.

Posted by: eman at August 17, 2010 11:36 AM (Nw/hR)

25 Ace, besides an official drink, Valu Rite, what have us guys endorsed?

Posted by: Kemp at August 17, 2010 11:31 AM

Kittehs.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 17, 2010 11:37 AM (Ulu3i)

26 Also, I think the vote will be closer than people think
I do belive Toomey will win, but it will probably be 52-48 or somewhere there abouts.
PA is still a union state for the most part and has a declining population. Many of the people inclined to vote republican are the same people that are willing to move to another state in search of a job. So the best chance the republicans have of winning Pennsylvania is by depressing Democratic turnout in conjunction with increasing Republican turnout.
The states registration is heavily favored for Democrat, however there is a caveat. Many democrats here are democrats out of tradition. Many of them are what you might call JFK democrats. Extremely patriotic, pro gun, pro huntin and pro life. That is why the democrats from PA tend to be "conservative" on social issues. Even Jack Murtha was endorsed by the NRA and other "conservative" groups.
It is fiscal conservatism that is a harder sell to PA democrats.That explains how Rick Santorum won. He was more of a social conservative than fiscal conservative.
Pat Toomey is the opposite. He doesn't care much about social issues, he is totally commited to fiscal conservatism. If he wins it will be a big victory for us in the Senate. To get another fiscal con in a state that doesn't normally elect them is a big get.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:37 AM (wuv1c)

27 I recall driving through the burbs around West Chester, PA.in Oct 2008, stunned by all the 0bama/Biden signs. This area was formerly a Republican stronghold. Not bitter clingers, but professionals - white collar peeps who tend to fiscal conservatism and strongnational defense. Theythought they were voting for the great Uniter,Professor Posts-Partisan and Racial.Instead, they were hoodwinked and bamboozled.
They must not be happy with how his azz taste.

Posted by: kallisto at August 17, 2010 11:37 AM (+FkcS)

28 am sure that was you. But don't you live in Utah?
no, pittsburgh.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:37 AM (wuv1c)

29 Ace, besides an official drink, Valu Rite, what have us guys endorsed?

The ladies have endorsed stompy boots. We men endorse the lamentation of our enemies' women, especially in Pennsylvania.

Posted by: George Orwell at August 17, 2010 11:39 AM (AZGON)

30 Lemonkitten, Bob Casey jr is in the senate for life now. His father was a popular governor and that name is enough to keep him there for life.

Ed Anger,
PA-3 and PA-10 are going to go Republican.
PA-4 where I live is about +8 R, but we have a Democrat Rep who i think will lose. He was given permission to vote against healthcare by Pelosi, but i don't think people here are fooled.

PA-11 is a toss up, Kanjorski always finds a way to survive, but he might not this year
PA-12 is a lost cause, if we couldn't win the special election there, we never will

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:41 AM (wuv1c)

31 recall driving through the burbs around West Chester, PA.in Oct 2008, stunned by all the 0bama/Biden signs. This area was formerly a Republican stronghold. Not bitter clingers, but professionals - white collar peeps who tend to fiscal conservatism and strongnational defense. Theythought they were voting for the great Uniter,Professor Posts-Partisan and Racial.Instead, they were hoodwinked and bamboozled.
They must not be happy with how his azz taste
the majority of americans who voted for Obama in 2008 but voted Bush in 2004 were misguided. I honestly believe that they thought Obama was going to be a pragmatist and not an ideologue. I don't blame them entirely. A lot of people aren't politically involved other than occasionally watching the news, and think of how biased the news was in 2008.
Also, lets not forget how bad Bush was in his last two years, the surge aside, he was god awful. He started to walk back on many of the things that made him popular, and then their is the economic meltdown.
It was a perfect storm of events that turned Republican leaning independents into the arms of the black slate that was Obama.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:43 AM (wuv1c)

32

But Intrade has Sestak up by 20%!!!!!!!


Bring on the polls for the state races too. I'm an equal-opportunity annoyer.

Posted by: In before the troll at August 17, 2010 11:44 AM (P9+0W)

33 PA-12 is a lost cause, if we couldn't win the special election there, we never will

It likely won't matter in 2 years. Everything I've heard says that, if Pennsylvania loses any districts, PA-12 is on the chopping block because the only reason it still existed to this point was Murtha.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at August 17, 2010 11:45 AM (wDKwf)

34 Ace, besides an official drink, Valu Rite, what have us guys endorsed?



The ladies have endorsed stompy boots. We men endorse the lamentation of our enemies' women, especially in Pennsylvania.


Don't forget boobies. And God's own food: bacon.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at August 17, 2010 11:46 AM (P9+0W)

35 am sure that was you. But don't you live in Utah?

no, pittsburgh.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:37 AM (wuv1c)

Same thing.
/

Posted by: Nevergiveup at August 17, 2010 11:47 AM (0GFWk)

36 Didn't Markos predict Skittles and Unicorns back in 2008
Bigger gains for the Dems and Moon Pies in every pot
(or was that pot in every Moon Pie?)

Posted by: la Cucaracha at August 17, 2010 11:47 AM (j5CHE)

37 I honestly believe that they thought Obama was going to be a pragmatist and not an ideologue.
Yes, just after the election,when I finally lost that sick feeling in the pit of my stomach, I spoke to a couple friends about the future. One was a diehard Republican and the other a Libertarian. Both had voted for McCain, but were convinced that Obama understood that he'd have to govern from the center.
PUNKD

Posted by: kallisto at August 17, 2010 11:49 AM (+FkcS)

38 It likely won't matter in 2 years. Everything I've heard says that, if Pennsylvania loses any districts, PA-12 is on the chopping block because the only reason it still existed to this point was Murtha.
ehh. we'll see. Pennsylvania has one of the largest state legislatures in America. Far more than our state population requires. As i said we are a union state (read:graft, deals and corruption)
If the Republicans win the State legislature, which is possible, then you might be right, however if the dems win, then you will likely see trade offs between democrats and republicans.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:50 AM (wuv1c)

39 Not to worry - Bloomberg is here today stumping for Sestak!

all will be well

Posted by: BlackOrchid at August 17, 2010 11:52 AM (SB0V2)

40 If the Republicans win the State legislature, which is possible, then you might be right, however if the dems win, then you will likely see trade offs between democrats and republicans.
Does the governor play any role in redistricting - cause it looks like the R is gonna win that race too?

Posted by: Mallamutt at August 17, 2010 11:54 AM (OWjjx)

41
If the Republicans win the State legislature,
which is possible, then you might be right, however if the dems win,
then you will likely see trade offs between democrats and republicans.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:50 AM (wuv1c)
Because of the census PA will lose one House member. It's about 99% sure it will be PA-12. How what's left is redrawn is the question.

Posted by: Ed Anger at August 17, 2010 11:55 AM (7+pP9)

42 am sure that was you. But don't you live in Utah? no, pittsburgh. Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:37 AM (wuv1c) Same thing. /
No.....baseball teams in Utah tend to win....Pittsburgh, eh.

Posted by: Mallamutt at August 17, 2010 11:55 AM (OWjjx)

43 PPP is the new Democrats polling group ... beware of the media rigging elections with polling.

It's your solemn duty to vote, if in doubt vote all Dems out.

Posted by: bill-tb at August 17, 2010 11:56 AM (y+QfZ)

44 If the Republicans win the State legislature, which is possible, then you might be right, however if the dems win, then you will likely see trade offs between democrats and republicans.
Does the governor play any role in redistricting - cause it looks like the R is gonna win that race too?
The redistricting of Pennsylvania's 19 congressional districts is done as a regular bill with approval needed by both chambers and the governor. Appeals are handled through the federal courts. Pennsylvania is expected to lose one congressional seat due to population gains in other states.
and as was pointed out, the PA 12 is in the cross hairs.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 11:56 AM (wuv1c)

45 Victory Mosque Bloomberg endorsed Sestak. Enough said.

Posted by: someone at August 17, 2010 11:57 AM (DfAwB)

46 Victory Mosque Bloomberg endorsed Sestak. Enough said.
And some reporter will ask Sestak when they appear together if he agrees with Maryor Bloomberg about the mosque.....cause we have the finest media in the world.
Yea, I will be here all week, tip your waiters and waitresses.

Posted by: Mallamutt at August 17, 2010 11:58 AM (OWjjx)

47 Congressman Sestak should not worry.....he still has me.

Posted by: President B to the O....Hollar! at August 17, 2010 11:59 AM (OWjjx)

48 Because of the census PA will lose one House member. It's about 99% sure it will be PA-12. How what's left is redrawn is the question.
yeah. that's the issue. in all likelihood, PA 12 will be carved up to ensure that one Republican district become permanently red, probably my PA 4, and one democratic district becomes permanently blue.
the problem is that most of the surrounding area is Red, PA 14 is the only one in the area that is solid blue (it includes pittsburgh.)
We'll see what happens.

Posted by: Ben at August 17, 2010 12:00 PM (wuv1c)

49


Not to worry - Bloomberg is here today stumping for Sestak!



all will be well

Posted by: BlackOrchid at August 17, 2010 11:52 AM (SB0V2)
The great thing about the mosque (and this is what's driving the Democrats crazy) is it isn't going away. Arizona and Prop. 8 are ancient history but even after September 11th the mosque will be the big question up until election day.

Posted by: Ed Anger at August 17, 2010 12:02 PM (7+pP9)

50 Caught my first anti-Toomey ad last night.

They complained that Toomey had worked on Wall Street before going into politics, selling those EVIL derivatives. GASP !!

Posted by: Neo at August 17, 2010 12:05 PM (tE8FB)

51 Arkansas
Indiana
North Dakota
Delaware
Pennsylvania


now...anyone want to still keep arguing theres "no way" we hit 5 more?

Posted by: CAC at August 17, 2010 12:06 PM (lV4Fs)

52 Does this mean we can start sucking each other's dicks now?

Posted by: blaster at August 17, 2010 12:06 PM (aEyru)

53 Maybe, just maybe, some of those union Dems out in the PA hinterlands realize that the Dems are crushing the energy industry. Or, mayebe they are getting used to the unemployment checks.

I live in Philly, there's no hope at all that Rep. Brady will lose my district. But I will plow through a gauntlet of New Black Panthers to vote against him and all the other Dems.

Posted by: Luca Brasi at August 17, 2010 12:09 PM (YmPwQ)

54 So all the eeyores will shut up now????

Posted by: Vic at August 17, 2010 12:11 PM (/jbAw)

55 Theythought they were voting for the great Uniter,Professor Posts-Partisan and Racial.

My dad's from there. He was like Levi Johnston with a bad perm when I met him in the 80s. The community is probably not unlike Shaker Heights or Grosse Point. Spoiled kids on drugs. There was nothing idealistic about 2008.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at August 17, 2010 12:13 PM (mHQ7T)

56 Jim Geraghty at NRO's Campaign Spot looks at the PPP numbers and mentions that:

1) PPP has shifted from sampling registered voters to a likely voter model

2) And - [PPP's] release spends a paragraph trying to explain that they think their sample was too conservative.

LINK

Posted by: mrp at August 17, 2010 12:18 PM (HjPtV)

57 Considering that the only thing that Obama is really good at is election fraud, I think a lot of people are going to be unpleasantly surprised on election night.

Posted by: gn at August 17, 2010 12:21 PM (S3DDy)

58 57 mrp,

of course they do....hey they know who is paying their bills.

Posted by: sven10077 at August 17, 2010 12:21 PM (kq1lG)

59 58 GN,

he and his cohorts are welcome to try, then it becomes a new ball game and makes our dissidence towards him and his a moral imperative.

Posted by: sven10077 at August 17, 2010 12:22 PM (kq1lG)

60 As annoying as some ofthe eyeores are, they have a point. No time to relax....we don;t have to go to eleventy every day until November, but keep the eyes on the prize.

Posted by: Luca Brasi at August 17, 2010 12:25 PM (YmPwQ)

61 Does this mean we can start sucking each other's dicks now?
Posted by: blaster

Yes. You first.

Posted by: voting 'present' for this one at August 17, 2010 12:26 PM (R2fpr)

62 14
Ace, besides an official drink, Valu Rite, what have us guys endorsed?

Hobo hunting.

Posted by: Reiver at August 17, 2010 12:29 PM (64S5N)

63 much of Pa is bitter clinger central ... many of my neighbors in ruralish Pa see the NYC Mosque as a provication and Obama's support will only crater his numbers further ...
many of the 30-40 ish ablebodied males around my town are members of the local volunteer fire departments ... they consider going to NYC to Ground Zero almost a pillgrimage to sacred ground.Every firehouse I have visited for town meeting, fairs and flea markets have multiple signs that state "Never Forget, Never Forgive" ...
All I know is if that Mosque does get built (by Union workers ???) I would not expect an "agressive" response to any fire alarms in that building ...

Posted by: Jeff at August 17, 2010 12:38 PM (A3tpD)

64 From your lips to God's ear.
I was just thinking about it, and being from Delaware County just outside of Philadelphia, I do not remeber see one sign for Sestak.
Aaaannnnddddd.....
Could someone explain to me how a solid military guy like Sestak end's up a barking mad reactionary leftist?

Posted by: Lazarus Long at August 17, 2010 12:39 PM (8edQv)

65 65 LL,

pursuit of power and the selection process for plum assignments mostly.

Posted by: sven10077 at August 17, 2010 12:48 PM (kq1lG)

66 I'd like to know how many of Coatesville's Obummer voters are disappointed. Somehow, the city is still a shit hole even though their guy won.

Posted by: Tim at August 17, 2010 12:49 PM (xq7pr)

67 Yeah, and what might have something to do with it, too, was when, at a recent press conference, Bill Clinton denied that he had made a phone call to Joe Sestak to offer Sestack a job on behalf of the Obama Administration.
Bill is probably lying. But whether he is or isn't, whatthatevent and other events show is thatBill and Hillary are now distancing themselves from that trainwreck, too. All of the rats with an instinct for survivalare leaving the sinking ship.

Posted by: Just a thought, or two at August 17, 2010 01:15 PM (sYrWB)

68 Toomey's commercials here effectively paint Admiral Smokestak as a big spending uber-liberal who voted down the line w/ Obama. He is scoring by tieing the Looney Admiral to Obama. Lucky for Obama he is not running now. In all liklihood, he will benefit in re-election terms in '12 from having his socialist agenda stymied by a GOP Congress.

Posted by: louis tully at August 17, 2010 01:23 PM (K/USr)

69 Rasmussen has a new poll
coming out this afternoon showing Toomey with a 9-point edge as well,
47/36. Toomey wins independents 45/24, gets 19% of Democrats, wins both
men (52/37) and women (41/37), and every age demographic except
18-29YOs.

Posted by: sven10077 at August 17, 2010 02:33 PM (kq1lG)

70 i like the title bro "Toomey Pulling Away From Sestak, Obama's Support Craters In Keystone State"
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