Great Article on ClimateGate from the Sunday Times (UK)
Not a lot you haven't heard -- though the scientists now beginning to perk up and say "Wait a damn minute here" is good -- but a great recap. Puts everything into the proper chronology and goes back to the beginning of the dispute -- over the hockey stick, and why that's so very crucial. Anyone who's been a bit lost in all this until now should find themselves suitably caught up by the article's end.
I'll quote this part, just to prove I myself read it (or whatever), but do yourself a favor and skip my excerpt and just read the whole thing. Good article to email to a newcomer to all of this, too.
Some critics believe that the unit’s findings need to be treated with more caution, because all the published data have been “corrected” — meaning they have been altered to compensate for possible anomalies in the way they were taken. Such changes are normal; what’s controversial is how they are done. This is compounded by the unwillingness of the unit to release the original raw data. David Holland, an engineer from Northampton, is one of a number of sceptics who believe the unit has got this process wrong. When he submitted a request for the figures under freedom of information laws he was refused because it was “not in the public interest”. Others who made similar requests were turned down because they were not academics, among them McIntyre, a Canadian who runs the Climate Audit website. A genuine academic, Ross McKitrick, professor of economics at the University of Guelph in Canada, also tried. He said: “I was rejected for an entirely different reason. The [unit] told me they had obtained the data under confidentiality agreements and so could not supply them. This was odd because they had already supplied some of them to other academics, but only those who support the idea of climate change.” IT was against this background that the emails were leaked last week, reinforcing suspicions that scientific objectivity has been sacrificed. There is unease even among researchers who strongly support the idea that humans are changing the climate. Roger Pielke, professor of environmental studies at the University of Colorado at Boulder, said: “Over the last decade there has been a very political battle between the climate sceptics and activist scientists. “It seems to me that the scientists have lost touch with what they were up to. They saw themselves as in a battle with the sceptics rather than advancing scientific knowledge.” Professor Mike Hulme, a fellow researcher of Jones at the University of East Anglia and author of Why We Disagree About Climate Change, said: “The attitudes revealed in the emails do not look good. The tribalism that some of the leaked emails display is something more usually associated with social organisation within primitive cultures; it is not attractive when we find it at work inside science.” There could, however, be another reason why the unit rejected requests to see its data. This weekend it emerged that the unit has thrown away much of the data. Tucked away on its website is this statement: “Data storage availability in the 1980s meant that we were not able to keep the multiple sources for some sites ... We, therefore, do not hold the original raw data but only the value-added (ie, quality controlled and homogenised) data.” If true, it is extraordinary. It means that the data on which a large part of the world’s understanding of climate change is based can never be revisited or checked. Pielke said: “Can this be serious? It is now impossible to create a new temperature index from scratch. [The unit] is basically saying, ‘Trust us’.”Since I'm doing another post, I'll just say that speculation that James Hansen is behind this leak seems daft. Maybe he does want Copenhagen to fail; but what he definitely doesn't want is the Cult of the Virgin Gaia to fail, and that's what this leak accomplishes. (Or forwards, at least.) And as interesting as it is, timing-wise, Al Gore's cancellation of one appearance at Climate Mecca doesn't mean anything at all.
Damn... This recap is good too.
First, the data games: the data manipulation that has been most seized upon by bloggers involves the choice of which sources of temperature data should be used to reflect climate trends after 1960. Because thermometer-based measurements of the climate are only about 150 years old (and are quite spotty for much of that time), when scientists set out to construct long-term estimates of temperature trends, they use what are called “proxies,” such as tree-ring measurements that ostensibly reveal the temperatures that the tree experienced as it grew. As it happens, the tree-ring proxies match up with the thermometer measurements up until about 1960, when there is a “divergence” between the two sets of data. The tree rings indicate a global cooling after 1960, while the thermometer data indicates a sharp warming. The CRU scientists decided to simply stop using the inconveniently non-warming tree-ring data after 1960, and splice the modern thermometer-based temperature readings instead, using statistical methods to smooth out and conceal the transition. In one email, this is discussed as a “trick” developed by Michael Mann, one of the creators of the infamous climate “hockey stick chart,” that would “hide the decline” shown by the tree rings and emphasize the recent spike in thermometer data, preserving the sanctity of the hockey stick. One problem with this is, if the tree rings don’t accurately reflect temperatures since 1960, why should we believe they accurately reflected temperatures in the past? If temperatures could diverge now, couldn’t they have equally diverged in the medieval warm period of 1,000 years ago? If so, current temperatures could be historically unremarkable, cutting away one of the key rationales for blaming human greenhouse gas emissions for recent climate changes. There’s also the well-known problem in the thermometer record of an upward bias due to increasing urbanization around weather stations. Which is right, the trees, or the thermometers? Perhaps neither. In another data manipulation discussion, one of the CRU researchers discusses changing the (arbitrary) baseline that is used to define “average temperature,” but is discouraged from doing so, as a less arbitrary baseline would reduce the appearance of global warming. About all we can say now is that it’s unclear that the public has been shown accurate reconstructions of historic temperatures, nor been given the context to understand whether recent climate changes are unusual or caused by human activity.He swings 'round to the peer-review corruption:
Finally, and most troubling, are the suggestions that a tribe of incestuous climate scientists may have actively conspired to undermine the peer-review process, until now considered a determinant of what is worthy of scientific consideration, and what is not. The scientists at CRU and throughout the climate change establishment, along with people such as former Vice President Al Gore, have slammed skeptics for not publishing in the peer-reviewed literature. What the Climategate documents reveal is that this small group of scientists, who are often called upon to peer review each other’s work as well as skeptical articles, have discussed ways of keeping findings they don’t like out of the peer-reviewed literature, even if it required trying to oust editors, boycotting certain journals, or reclassifying a prestigious journal that publishes skeptical articles as a fringe journal unworthy of consideration. They also discuss their specific intention to exclude contrary findings from the IPCC reports, even if they “have to redefine what the peer-reviewed literature is!” Is it surprising that many skeptics simply choose to forgo efforts to place materials in peer-reviewed journals when one knows that it will likely be blockaded by biased reviewers?
1 Meanwhile, back at Crazy Johnson's:
the CRU theft was a criminal attempt to sabotage the Copenhagen climate summit, and the entire right wing blogosphere is complicit in the crime.
Wow. I hadn't been there in awhile, it's gone totally crazyville.
Posted by: GregInSeattle at December 03, 2009 09:40 PM (B5cM9)
2 This "Climate Science" is right up there with "Eugenic Science"... always has been, do not get into the weeds, less you whoring for a grant.
Posted by: Druid at December 03, 2009 09:41 PM (Gct7d)
3 I flew out ouf Houston Hobby last night. I nearly froze my ass off.
Posted by: TexasJew at December 03, 2009 09:44 PM (NvtVj)
4 TJ, Check out Drudge's headline: Houston May See 'Earliest Snowfall Ever'
Posted by: GregInSeattle at December 03, 2009 09:47 PM (B5cM9)
the entire right wing blogosphere is complicit in the crime.
Fuck yeah, us Vast Right Wing Conspirators never sleep.
Posted by: Dang Straights at December 03, 2009 09:47 PM (bOV32)
(Re-post from dead AGW thread)
Okay fellow morons -- here's another apocalyptic article about AGW from the BBC.
If you look closely there's a "CLIMATE CHANGE GLOSSARY", under which there's an invitation to "suggest additions" to the Glossary.
I already made my contribution by defining Climategate.
The article is stupid propaganda, so if you prefer to skip that bullshit and go straight to razzing the dumb asses at the BBC just go here.
Kill 'em with spam.
Posted by: Tinian at December 03, 2009 09:48 PM (7+pP9)
7 Why did we throw away the data? We needed space for our espresso machine motherfuckers.
Posted by: Phil Jones at December 03, 2009 09:49 PM (muUqs)
8 Charles Johnson, The Half-Bitch Prince, Loses the AGW Fight on His Own Cite.
Sorry to contribute to the Charles Johnson Global Warming thread but this needs to happen.TheHalf-Bitch Prince needs to be called out. Going full retard on the Right asClimategate goes down is like buying stock in Yugo just after the first of this "promising car" drops a transmission in the middle of Culver City just weeks off the assembly line in 1983.Scroll through his links to the one on the "nontroversy" of Climategate. Late in the thread some chick makes a valid point of the attempt of AGW drones to link the denial of global warming with the denial of the holocaust. The key word is denial/denier. Every article put up by the LGF poster shows how THE AUTHORS of the articles suggested comparing denials of the holocaust with that of AGW. Again, the authors of the articles suggest it. So, the brave, rare LGF poster understandably ties this coincidence with a concerted effort by AGW activists to appropriate the word "deniers" in regards to the holocaustand relate and expand it to people who doubt AGW. The Half-Bitch Prince scoffs at this idea. Words are words. He ignores the purposeful intent of the many authors in the many articles cited. Instead, The Half-Bitch Prince calls out the poster as ridiculous. No word on if the poster is banned. Check out the thread before it's deleted.
Posted by: JDW at December 03, 2009 09:53 PM (L+u9U)
9 It's a fake!
Posted by: Admiral Akbar's Cousin Larry at December 03, 2009 09:53 PM (B+7+o)
10 the CRU theft was a criminal attempt to sabotage the Copenhagen climate summit, and the entire right wing blogosphere is complicit in the crime.
I feel so ... dirty.
Posted by: huerfano at December 03, 2009 09:54 PM (vtuZz)
Posted by: JDW at December 03, 2009 09:54 PM (L+u9U)
12 Sure wish I was duck hunting in Texas Saturday morning. Freezing rain and snow puts me in an 870 Rem frame of mind. Supposed to be 21Fwest of Houston near Chateau Dave.
Posted by: Dave in Singapore at December 03, 2009 09:58 PM (A6WUQ)
13 Little Green Nads has turned into the greatest source of gaseous emissions this side of a cow's anus. Screw YOU, Charles. How much did Libs EVER worry about ANY "criminally stolen" data that might embarrass Bush or hurt the war effort?
Posted by: CoolCzech at December 03, 2009 09:59 PM (QECjC)
14 You're right - that article is a great summary.
The key point is that is quite normal for adjustments to be made to the raw data, but that the CRU won't release the raw data, or has thrown it away.
Looks like Charles' Johnson picked the wrong week to give up sniffing glue.
Posted by: Simon at December 03, 2009 10:00 PM (0Nt8i)
15 Algore will never admit the slightest flaw in the Cult of the Virgin Gaia, much less change his plans over any infidelic heresy. It's much more likely he was busy taking a private jet thousands of miles to receive an award for whatever eco-porn gaia bukkake seemed hip at the moment.
Posted by: right at December 03, 2009 10:01 PM (EquV1)
16 I love this comment from one of Jones's supporters at his university:
This weekend many of Jones’s colleagues were standing by him. Tim Lenton, professor of earth system science at UEA, said: “We wouldn’t have anything like the understanding of climate change that we do were it not for the work of Phil Jones and his colleagues. They have spent decades putting together the historical temperature record and it is good work.”
Umm, that's the whole point of the whole controversy, you idiot!
Posted by: african chick at December 03, 2009 10:05 PM (9VOeE)
17 Trust us. We promise we won't come in your mouth.
Posted by: Jones, Mann, Biffra, et. al. at December 03, 2009 10:06 PM (ZgvjV)
18 and the entire right wing blogosphere is complicit in the crime.
Translation: "Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!"
Funny how quickly CJ turned into a totalitarian. No wonder he had to "leave" the right - we don't stand for that shit.
Posted by: Waterhouse at December 03, 2009 10:14 PM (i0JKs)
19 They are calling for snow in Austin tomorrow, too, and a low of 27F.
Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 03, 2009 10:16 PM (dQdrY)
Just took the trash and and was freezing my bawlz off. Shorts and a tshirt ain't enough right now.
Posted by: Dang Straights at December 03, 2009 10:17 PM (bOV32)
21 Is CJ going to serve criminal papers on all of us?
Posted by: Zimriel at December 03, 2009 10:18 PM (04p0/)
I'm thinking he should just go execution on us.
Posted by: Dang Straights at December 03, 2009 10:20 PM (bOV32)
23 Okay, so here's another one from the article:
The problem was that the same figures showed that it had all happened before. The so-called medieval warm period of about 1,000 years ago saw Britain covered in vineyards and Viking farmers tending cows in Greenland. For any good scientist this raised a big question: was the recent warming linked to humans burning fossil fuels or was it part of a natural cycle?
The researchers set to work and in 1999 a group led by Professor Michael Mann, a climatologist at Pennsylvania State University, came up with new numbers showing that the medieval warm period was not so important after all.
Some bits of the Atlantic may have been warm for a while, but the records suggested that the Pacific had been rather chilly over the same period — so on average there was little change.
OK, let me get that straight. Although there have been warm periods not due to carbon emissions in the Atlantic in the past, any current warming trend in the Pacific region MUST be due to carbon emissions. Got it.
Posted by: african chick at December 03, 2009 10:21 PM (9VOeE)
24 If you can handle the dramatic voices, there is a decent NPR debate on climate change here:
The topic: "Major Reductions in Carbon Emissions Are Not Worth the Money."
Three for, three against. The pro side won. The number agreeing with the statement increased from 16% to 42%.
Posted by: Globular Cluster at December 03, 2009 10:27 PM (rRO4e)
25 It's absolutely ridiculous that all these hypocrites are crying about intercepted or "hacked" emails. They didn't have any problem when that little doof hacked Sarah Palin. Why would anyone expect that the emails they post in the net from public institutions would remain private? For that matter, when any whistle blower bravely comes forward for the good of the country,(actually the free world), do we try to criminalize their behavior, or celebrate their honesty and valor? Many of us have seen this global warming taxation/redistribution scheme for what it is from the start. The only ones to gain from shooting the messenger are the emperor with no clothes, and all his cohorts that have been selling him his threads.
Posted by: Notsomebodyelse at December 03, 2009 10:32 PM (ALgvI)
Is CJ going to serve criminal papers on all of us?
Is CJ going to file a criminal complaint on even one of us? Not likely. This guys stones are the size of BB's.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at December 03, 2009 10:33 PM (4TNM6)
27 African Chick,
I love how they always want to minimize the medieval warming that let the Vikings colonize Greenland and Iceland and when they came to North America and lived a whole winter in Canada with no frost!
Those are mere children stories, even though the villages and mines are only now thawing out. But the gospel of Al should be heeded, even though the calving glaciers were computer generated for a different movie.
"Go unto the world and collect carbon credits!" sayeth the Gore. "And then sell them to me for pennies on the dollars that I will sell them back to the world! For I am the living word of the only God I preach, and I will absolve your sins with the proper payment! So sayeth I, the one who lost to the one who PLAYED ON OUR FEARS!"
Posted by: Notsomebodyelse at December 03, 2009 10:54 PM (ALgvI)
28 So in CJ's world, the public (and every individual, actually) is better served if we go ahead and rearrange human society on the entire planet and pay trillions upon trillions for the privilege based only upon a fraud of historical proportions while rewarding those frauds with untethered power and intervention (while violating every scientific foundation ever conceived) instead of prosecuting the "illegal" exposure of what is highly, questionably private?
What an ideologically confused mental midget. His moral relativometer is stuck on "Stupid."
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at December 03, 2009 10:58 PM (50S+L)
29 So the CRU couldn't save their raw data, too much for 1980's technology. Further they can't say what exactly the sources were, but do say "Hey, the data we selected from is out their, go get it your self ?
We do have have their source code for how the data was processed AFTER being normalized, but be can't recover the original data. All we have is the normalized data.
Double nice !
Deleting the raw data, and even what the raw data was and retaining the normalized data is scientifically worthless: The CRU conclusions cannot be tested.
Save the original raw data and the source code for the modeling program, and then the results can be falsified. The CRU made it impossible to falsify their conclusions, leaving them in the realm of creation science/ID.
Karl Popper is spinning in his grave.
Posted by: jbarntt at December 03, 2009 10:58 PM (Ynr0B)
30 Looks like Charles' Johnson picked the wrong week to give up sniffing glue.
Not at all, I can get all the glue I want from my Amazon store. A hit of glue, click and click and my tip jar runneth over. Oops, I downdinged myself, I have to give myself a warning.
Posted by: Cahrsel Jhonsno at December 03, 2009 11:09 PM (sYxEE)
31 I dont see a problem with warming, Longer Growing Seasons etc. 3 to 5 five degrees F would kill us? I dont hear many Canadians bitching about the warming.
And twenty foots of water increase in san fran might not be a bad thing.
Posted by: lowest strata at December 03, 2009 11:09 PM (GNaKr)
32 I wonder if this is what it looked like at the birth of the last Dark Age? People seem inherently obliged to listen to these idiotic snake oil salesmen tell them that they are the cause of all the problems of the world. Or, better yet, that their employers are the cause to all the problems of the world, and if we could only make them PAY! Yeah, that's it! Make them PAY! If only they were out of the way, maybe somebody else could be the big man for a change! Not me, of course, because I don't need that kind of hassle and I got dart league on Thursdays you know, but somebody else! Man, I hope somebody else will give me a job, though, cause I'll need one.
Posted by: Notsomebodyelse at December 03, 2009 11:12 PM (ALgvI)
33 thanks, Rorschach!
Posted by: taba at December 03, 2009 11:23 PM (uJHuh)
34 It's called CLIMAQUIDDICK. At least that's what all of the cool people are calling it now.
Posted by: CozMark at December 03, 2009 11:33 PM (oqYT/)
35 I've been especially flatulent lately, so I used up my carbon credits and had to cancel the trip to Copenhagen.
Posted by: Al Gore at December 03, 2009 11:49 PM (gbCNS)
36 Sarah Palin has finally come out swinging on this issue. Hockey stick meets hockey mom. Mmmm, mmmmm, mmmmm.
Posted by: Ostral B Heretic at December 03, 2009 11:55 PM (y29/1)
I thought CLIMAQUIDDICK was that game where the Hollywood effete rode 747s around the globe chasing the elusive Carbon Credit, while the lesser Glitterati drove massive SUVs to get-togethers, of various types, in Marin and other sanctuaries, to plan public bludgeonings of the hoi polloi who still used incandescent light bulbs.
Weren't the Finals to be held soon in Dopenhagen?
Al Gore will not attend? Those Revealed Heterodox E-Mails must've really harshed his mellow.
Posted by: Arbalest at December 03, 2009 11:56 PM (Ym9lj)
38 Age of Conan CD KeyAion Online CD keyChampions Online CD KeyCall of Duty II CD KeyCompany of Heroes CD KeyCounter - Strike CD key: http://www.cdkeyexpress.comDiablo 2 CD Key: http://www.cdkeyexpress.comFallout 3 CD KeyGrand Theft Auto IV CD KeyGuild Wars CD KeyNexon Cash for MapleStory: http://www.cdkeyexpress.comRed Alert 3 CD Key: http://www.cdkeyexpress.comStarCraft CD Key: http://www.cdkeyexpress.comThe Godfather II CD KeyThe Sim 3 CD KeyTitan Quest CD KeyWarCraft3 CD key: http://www.cdkeyexpress.comWarhammer Online CD keyWorld Of Warcraft CD Key http://www.cdkeyexpress.com
Burberry scarf: http://www.scarves-store.comsilk scarf: http://www.scarves-store.com
Posted by: jason at December 03, 2009 11:57 PM (7kZmJ)
39 So: this is how Jason and his CD Keys are summoned.
To recycle Charles' line: everything is groovy.
Posted by: Arbalest at December 03, 2009 11:59 PM (Ym9lj)
40 #36. Sadly, what does it say that even SP needed to wait for HideTheDecline emails to call BS on this? Why not last year? Years ago? Why not during the Presidential camapaign? How come I knew it was BS, and I'm nearly stupid?!
Posted by: ParisParamus at December 03, 2009 11:59 PM (cd0d9)
41 I’ve never denied the reality of climate change; in fact, I was the
first governor to create a subcabinet position to deal specifically
with the issue. I saw the impact of changing weather patterns firsthand
while serving as governor of our only Arctic state. But while we
recognize the effects of changing water levels, erosion patterns, and
glacial ice melt, we cannot primarily blame man’s activities for the
earth’s cyclical weather changes.
Isn't this a bit hedging? Or maybe nothing better is possible on planet MSM?
Posted by: ParisParamus at December 04, 2009 12:02 AM (cd0d9)
42 Before us, we see the path ahead - the scandal of the AGW swindle can be used as a broom to sweep the socialists pushing it, and their agenda, out of Congress in 10.
Then the new Congressional majority can get on about investigating the massive credit card fraud used by the current administration to fund its election campaign.
As the saying goes - third time is a charm. Johnson, didn't really get him. Clinton, swing and a miss.
Batter up - this one is going out of the park, kids.
Posted by: Wind Rider at December 04, 2009 12:07 AM (EW1OG)
I remember Paul Erlich and his whacked-out gibberish from the ‘70s (as I read about it and labeled it while still in high school).
Soon afterwards, in college, I learned that arguing with PhDs, even when they’re provably wrong, is essentially futile. Your grade might depend on it.
Before, during and after this time, I also saw the other PhDs could not simply argue against a sufficiently powerful PhD without risking "repercussions". Arguing against a group, with money, internal political power (and in the case of CRU, titanic external political support) was and is foolish. Your job usually depends on it.
The proof that these e-mails show really is necessary to argue against AGW, CRU and related things. It is effectively a magic talisman. Without it, no one will take counter-arguments seriously, or fund counter (honest) research.
Posted by: Arbalest at December 04, 2009 12:12 AM (Ym9lj)
44 Isn't this a bit hedging (on Palin's part)?
Nah. Go take a look at climate-skeptic.com. Fact is that there is global warming in general.
We haven't seen the wooly mammoth in about 15k years.
The issues are "is it caused by human activity?" and "can we control the climate by regulating human behavior?"
Mann/Jones et al were fraudulently advocating "yes we can!"
You are now our bitches, you ugly mass of maggots!
Palin is playing it just about right, imo.
Posted by: Derak at December 04, 2009 12:45 AM (cgEDX)
45 Derak: Agreed. Climate changes, it's what it does. If it doesn't change, it isn't climate.
Posted by: theCork at December 04, 2009 02:18 AM (L0cxG)
46 While both articles are some of the more comprehensive I've read, the first describes Mann's earlier "hockey stick" graph as "famous," while the second describes it as "infamous." Neither provides any explanation for that earlier controversy, which centered around using bogus statistical methods to produce alarming conclusions. The more recent method of producing a hockey stick described in the Motley CRU article (splicing in a different post-1960 data set than tree rings) differs from the method used earlier, which led to bit of a shit storm at the hands of Steve McIntyre and was effectively discredited. Regardless, what all this tells me is that no matter the method used, the CRU is basically a hockey stick factory.
Posted by: sierra at December 04, 2009 03:03 AM (dzmPh)
47 They've pulled the article.
Posted by: Greg Q at December 04, 2009 04:32 AM (87k2j)
48 We haven't seen the wooly mammoth in about 15k years.
SP isn't that old. It just seems silly to use observations "from when I was young," or change over a decade or two as a baseline for "normalcy." OK, I am being fussy given the who and what the enemy is, but it just annoys me.
PS: when I was a little kid, there were bigger snow storms in the NYC suburbs. Also, the Beatles were a rock band.
Posted by: ParisParamus at December 04, 2009 07:38 AM (cd0d9)
49 "Algore will never admit the slightest flaw in the Cult of the Virgin
Gaia, much less change his plans over any infidelic heresy. "
this just in....
"Al Gore has this morning [Dec 3] told Berlingske Media's great annoyance has canceled his planned major climate talks for Danes 16th December in the old Carlsberg, under the title "Climate Conclusion". Cancellation comes with regard to unforeseen changes in Al Gore's program for the climate summit, COP 15" [machine translated from Danish]
"I've been especially flatulent lately, so I used up my carbon credits and had to cancel the trip to Copenhagen. -- Al Gore"
Ah, that explains it.
Posted by: Duncan Donetz at December 04, 2009 09:14 AM (XeAEF)
50 Sometimes incest is best!
Posted by: Bucktoothed, sister-humpin', Gaia-thumpin' Scientist at December 04, 2009 09:36 AM (GwPRU)
51 Let's see glaicers have advanced and retreated 8 times in the last million years. We haven't been on this planet long enoughto witness these events. I say live it up while we're between ice ages. Thanks for the link Ace.
Posted by: JCatara at December 04, 2009 11:22 AM (J+HrU)
52 Powerpoint (PPT) to DVD Converter
can help you burn a compelling PowerPoint file to Blu-ray/DVD movie for
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Posted by: cheermay at May 10, 2011 11:00 PM (8dkUq)
Processing 0.01, elapsed 0.0989 seconds.
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