Iowahawk Explains the Cult of the Virgin Gaia
Plus: Lots of Updates Including Mark Steyn

Weird. Iowahawk comes in to the comments and posts a detailed, authoritative explanation of the scandal. If only he had his own blog for this sort of thing. Ah, well: I'll take his free labor on my behalf gladly.

First of all, in case you haven't read it yet, Iowahawk's Secret Life of Climate Researchers is howlingly funny:

Many of those behaviors are on display in the security film, as we see a sexless group of drone graduate students processing a raw datum with saliva, sawdust and Fortran code. After each iteration the time series is presented to the Alpha Grantwriter to see if fits inside his graph. Several graduate drones die of exhaustion, but the data eventually fit the template.

Next the Alpha Grantwriter flies to an international climate research conference with the completed PowerPoint template, where he will share his guano with other Alpha Grantwriters over cocktails in the hotel lounge. This is a process metascientists refer to as "peer review."


Now, on to his serious stuff. I strongly recommend reading this as a nutshell explanation of the scandal and the supposed science behind it.


For the benefit of true believers like Stewart, lemme see if I can squeeze this whole methodology thing into a nutshell:

Jones, Mann, et al., practice paleoclimatology; that is, the statistical reconstruction of historic climate records. Their approach works something like this --

let y = a time series of observed global temperature records.

Unfortunately reliable time series only go back 100-150 years or so, a blip on geological time scale. To figure out if there is any sort of significant millenial trend, the series needs to go much farther back, 1000 years or so. Great grampa Ogg was too busy avoiding plague infested rats to write down the temperature, so we need to deduce it out from "proxy variables," like measurements on annually striated phenomena like tree rings, ice core samples and so on. so...

let x1 ... xp = a time series array of proxy variables.

Great! Now them thar proxy variable records will get us back 1000 years. But they're expressed in measures of tree ring width, band coloration, ice density, etc., not in temperature. And contrary to popular belief there isn't a physical law or textbook formula that converts these proxy measures into temperature. To do this Mann, et al., use a statistical approach --

1. perform a Principle Components Analysis (PCA) of the proxy variables. PCA is a standard statistical technique for linearly transforming/ reducing a set of raw correlated variables (x1 ... xp) into a set of variables called Principle Components (PC1 ... PCp) which retain the information in the original data. The PCs are orthogonal (uncorrelated) with one another.

2. Next, Mann et al. regressed the 100 years or so of observed temperatures against the proxy variable principle components:

y = b0 + b1*PC1 + b2*PC2 + ... + bp*PCp + error

the regression coefficients (b's) estimated from recent data were then applied to the older proxy PCs to obtain retrospective "backcasts" or "hindcasts" of the temperatures in 1015, 1016,... 1850.

Voila! The Mann et al. statistical model resulted in the now infamous hockey stick, showing a radical increase in global temperatures in recent years versus the relatively flat milenial variation. This was in large part the basis for the IPCC report.

The initial controversy about this result was raised by MacIntyre and McKittrick (MM) who noted the backcasts of Mann's reconstructed temperatures didn't reproduce the amplitude of the Medieval "warm period" or the subsequent "little ice age" that previous research had estimated. That previous work suggested that the recent uptick in temperatures in no big whoop compare to previous decades in the past 1000 years, but Mann's result showed it off the charts. They published a couple papers suggesting the flat reconstructed historical temperatures were artifacts of Mann's selection of a time frame for extracting principle components (see step 1 above), which artificially suppressed the variation in the temperature backcasts. This is likely what the CRU emails were talking about when they referred to "Michael's Nature trick." This artifact explanation was largely confirmed by George Mason U statistician EJ Wegman (methods editor for JASA), who blistered Mann's model in a 2006 report commissioned by the Congressional Energy & Commerce committee. Amusingly, Wegman showed that replacing Mann's principle components estimates with repeated samples of random white noise continued to produce the same hockey stick shape.

Now here's where the fun begins. MacIntyre and McKittrick wanted to follow up on their research, and asked Mann and Jones for their source data. This is where M&J started stonewalling to the point where M&M made FOIA requests, which were ignored. The emails give some sense of how desperately the CRU group wanted to avoid providing it. Why? Because, I suspect (and seems obvious from the "harry_read_me.txt" programmer's notes), the basic observed temperature variables -- the linchpin of truth in Mann's model -- are hopelessly, utterly corrupted.

Now, if you've been following this, Mann's entire temperature reconstruction method rests on knowing (observing) recent periodic global temperatures, y. Quibbling about principle components aside, that's the dependent variable in the backcasts. But as is now becoming increasingly plain, y was constructed from an undocumented process that took raw ground station data and ran it through a black box that included smoothing, filtering, inference, manipulation, baling wire, glue and the juice of one whole lemon. This is what the CRU people are calling "valued added homogenized data." Or what normal people call "made up horseshit." It's also the temperature data that dozens, if not hundreds of AGW studies are based on.

In the last few days, the ECU has cynically offered to "share the data," but what they are offering to share is this numerical sausage. What they won't share is the source code for their computational raw data meatgrinder, which I suspect contains a treasure trove of numerical shenanigans.

"Hide the Decline:" Many people mentioned this in the comments and it was probably linked here at some point. In case you haven't seen it...

Thanks to larwyn.

Michael Mann Says Whole Thing is "Manufactured Controversy." Manufactured controversy? That's what I've been saying all along, dude.

Steyn: On various things.

As Jonah has said, this is not just a science scandal but a journalism scandal worldwide. Here's the Aussie version of the Jones/Mann Nothing-to-see tango. In Canada, a reader of mine wrote to the Globe & Mail, the Dominion's newspaper of record, to enquire why they'd run not a single news story on the subject for ten days, and received the following reply from the executive honcho:

Thanks for your note
We continue to look into the issue. It is important

Indeed. The documents were leaked on the Internet, the CRU confirmed their authenticity, they've announced that they've thrown out all their raw data, the head guy has stepped down . . . But that's no reason not to "continue to look into the issue" for another, oh, three, four, seven months before running a story. I like this fellow's sign-off:


Slice your average environment correspondent through the middle and you're going to find a left-leaning liberal arts graduate who is utterly out of his/her depth. Their world view is being swept from underneath them and they are being shown in ways that they do not really and have never had to understand that the guys they thought were the goodies are in fact "at it" and that those they have spent a decade disparaging as deniers were in fact spot on.

I would find that hard to report too.

Like eight year olds that just found out there's no Santa. Kind of earth shattering and traumatic. Lied to by those you most trusted.

Interesting journey ahead of some of these dolts.

But then, they're doltish enough to make sure it's not interesting, as not-interesting as the rest of their dull gray intellectually-empty lives.

Michael Crichton Again: Aliens Caused Global Warming. Now this piece I definitely linked before, but worth reading again.

Thanks to wherestherum.

Posted by: Ace at 03:10 PM



Comments

1 More yoks! Less math!

Posted by: nickless at December 02, 2009 03:16 PM (MMC8r)

2 I do love me some Iowahawk.

Posted by: mpfs Indentured Fish Stick to the State at December 02, 2009 03:17 PM (iYbLN)

3 Is there a way to reverse engineer the statistical methods they used? Would that be prohibitively difficult?

Posted by: joncelli at December 02, 2009 03:18 PM (RD7QR)

4 Fifth!
I saw John Stewart follow this, the second time ever he followed a right-blog story. Maybe he has a new studio audience now.

Posted by: Cincinnatus at December 02, 2009 03:19 PM (f4sLg)

5 Eh... I don't know. This whole virgin gaiaMeridith Baxter lesbian climate scientist tranvestite golf sponsorship socialist healthcare concept is a little much for me to get my mental arms around.
If it's all the same to you, I'll just sit this one out.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at December 02, 2009 03:20 PM (RkRxq)

6
If only Mann had used data derived from reading chicken entrails instead of ice cores and tree rings, he wouldn't be in the mess he is in now. And as a bonus he could fuck the chicken before extrapolating the data.

Posted by: Ancient voodoo wiseman at December 02, 2009 03:21 PM (Oxen1)

7 Damn it, I knew I fucked up when I forgot the lemon...

Posted by: Phil Jones at December 02, 2009 03:23 PM (j3yyU)

8 The fanatic global warming crowd will keep fucking that last polar bear on the iceberg till the bitter end (no pun intended, yeah, pun intended.)

Posted by: mpfs Indentured Fish Stick to the State at December 02, 2009 03:23 PM (iYbLN)

9 Well done. Ever thought about trading options?

Posted by: Mr Goldman at December 02, 2009 03:25 PM (2+9Yx)

10 Piltdown Mann is looking more and more like an accurate nickname...

Posted by: 18-1 at December 02, 2009 03:25 PM (7BU4a)

11 >>>Is there a way to reverse engineer the statistical methods they used? Would that be prohibitively difficult?

See, they *try* to do that. They attemp to reverse-engineer their coding and assumptions and "fixes."

It's BIZARRE they have to guess as this shit. But they do.

And then when they make a mistake -- they reverse-engineer it wrong -- the guys hiding the information say "Ha, ha!" like that kid on the Simpsons. (They still don't reveal their methods -- they just chuckle that they got this one thing wrong.)

Again, I keep saying: The deeper scandal here is that this stuff was EVER hidden and people were forced to guess in the first place.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:25 PM (jlvw3)

12 Hmmmm.

So where's your avalanche of climatologists/atmospheric scientists/meteorologists running away from anthropogenic warming?

Posted by: Pope Clement II at December 02, 2009 03:25 PM (u6zet)

13 Amusingly, Wegman showed that replacing Mann's principle components estimates with repeated samples of random white noise continued to produce the same hockey stick shape.
This is the left's notion of "reproducibility of results". Never forget, the left always needs to be told "what the definition of 'is' is" ...

Posted by: progressoverpeace at December 02, 2009 03:26 PM (A46hP)

14 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEiLgbBGKVk

The video you posted is a copy .

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 03:28 PM (kKP5O)

15 Man, screw the Vatican...I need to make a pilgrimage to Iowa to have Iowahawk bless me, I'm thinking. Good stuff.

Posted by: Chris at December 02, 2009 03:28 PM (SiJV8)

16 Look! Over there! Hello Kitty purses on SALE!

Posted by: Michael Mann at December 02, 2009 03:28 PM (iYbLN)

17 Gaia hates idiots. She tends to kill them when civilization isn't protecting them. But she is patient and will wait until the weight of idiots causes the societies that protect them to fail.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 02, 2009 03:29 PM (dQdrY)

18 Iowahawk's analysis was almost Den Beste-ian.
Awesome.

Posted by: Sharkman at December 02, 2009 03:29 PM (Zj8fM)

19
...but what they are offering to share is this numerical sausage. What
they won't share is the source code for their computational raw data
meatgrinder,

okay, this is the only part I could grasp; but I think I got the main point: Mann Jones are gonna show the cooked books, but they're not gonna show the methodology of how they arrived at their conclusions.

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:29 PM (ohoCZ)

20 Again, I keep saying: The deeper scandal here is that this stuff was EVER hidden and people were forced to guess in the first place.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:25 PM (jlvw3)
Kind of like the way the Porkulus was passed ... This is the left's favorite political tactic, now, and the lame stream media seems to be happy to support them in it, all the way. The lame stream media is even in an all-out fight against the internet, in that they are still trying to suppress this story and push Copenhagen. It's crazy.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at December 02, 2009 03:30 PM (A46hP)

21 Is there a way to reverse engineer the statistical methods they used?
In theory, if you know what went in and what came out, yes. But what went in is missing or altered or unexplained or made up, and what came out is the result of more than one pass, and a few partial passes, of all that mess through different Paleo-Coolinators and Post-Paleo-Warminators. So no. We got nothin', because that's what there is.

Posted by: oblig. at December 02, 2009 03:30 PM (k5ILr)

22 "valued added homogenized data."

Paid for with a value added tax. Since when did taking money and turning into crap become "value added"?

Posted by: Rocks at December 02, 2009 03:31 PM (Q1lie)

23 Does this hockey stick graph make me look fat?

Posted by: Michael Mann former Penn State Professor. now homeless and wandering at December 02, 2009 03:31 PM (iYbLN)

24 joncelli, the answer to that question is a resounding no, and the comments which are internal to the pieces of the source code which have been leaked make it clear why.
The answer is no because they didn't useany consistent program to generate their numbers. They first generated the numbers, then they tweaked the data, then they tweaked the code, then they regenerated some more numbers, then they tweaked just part of the code, then part didn't work so they threw out a bit and stuck a patch in, then they patched the patches, then the patches messed up some stuff that had been good so they rewrote another part of the code to fix those problems, then they patched it some more all while periodically regnenerating and readjusting all of the data. They did this for years until even the programmers noted what a hopeless and unfixable mess the basic program code had become, to the point that even they could no longer make any sense of most of it. Then, somewhere after the 1,000th adjustment to everything they threw away all of the original data and all of the intermediate steps so that there would never be any possibleway to get back to where they started from.
Suppose you want to know my starting poing when I've said that my final answer was "42." I'vetold you that it had taken me 600 equations to get to that point. You ask me for those equations, and I just say "I dunno."
Thisis why now everything they have done has got to be discarded and the entire project has to be re-started from scratch.

Posted by: wws at December 02, 2009 03:33 PM (T1boi)

25
Pope Clement II?

wow eggmcmuffin you're so well-read!

How many more names of historical and fictional characters do you know?

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:33 PM (ohoCZ)

26 If they pull their data out of their sphincters and return it there when FOIA requests are made there is no way to check their math.

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 03:33 PM (kKP5O)

27 Lots of Updates Including Mark Steyn


Hey! This post is now value added!



Posted by: Rocks at December 02, 2009 03:33 PM (Q1lie)

28 2 + 2 = 7

See, I can make up numbers too.

Posted by: mpfs, Indentured Fish Stick to the State at December 02, 2009 03:34 PM (iYbLN)

29 >>> but I think I got the main point: Mann & Jones are gonna show the cooked books, but they're not gonna show the methodology of how they arrived at their conclusions.

Well, yeah. And bear in mind they say they can't present the raw data (and the ADJUSTMENTS made to that raw data) because, see... THEY THREW THAT STUFF OUT.

So once again it is a game of "Here are my conclusions. You want my data and methods? Sorry, no. Accept the conclusions. The science is settled, you see."

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:34 PM (jlvw3)

30 Doesn't this cease to be science once they threw out their data?

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 03:35 PM (kKP5O)

31 Iowahawk is so banned from LGF for this.

Posted by: isostan at December 02, 2009 03:36 PM (isLP4)

32 Piltdown Mann is looking more and more like an accurate nickname...
Piltdown Mann, who can only get an uptick if he uses Valu-Rite Data, IYKWIMAITYD.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:36 PM (Be4xl)

33 At least when you're dealing with BigPharm data/studies it's presumed to be a pony amid all the crap.

with BigClimate it's two middle-aged white guys ... and, thankfully, no cup.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at December 02, 2009 03:36 PM (ruzrP)

34 They.

Threw.

Out.

The.

Raw.

Data.

And.

The.

Adjustments.

They.

Made.

To.

That.

Data.

Threw it out. Threw it away. Apparently sometime in 1992 they decided that computer storage would become MORE AND MORE EXPENSIVE and so they had to hit the delete button to save on costs.

Threw. It. Fucking. Out.

But oh, here -- here are the numbers as we tweaked them. But we can't tell you how they were tweaked as we threw out the records of the tweaking.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:37 PM (jlvw3)

35
Kinda sounds like how when we asked how the White House calculated the "saved" jobs figures and they said, "Shut up, that's how. You figure it out. What are we, your errand boys?"

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:37 PM (ohoCZ)

36 Thing about Iowahawk is, hell of a guy, can hold his liquor pretty well, has some tough-ass friends and stuff. But he talks just like that comment. All with the x squared and derivative this and exponential that and it's easy for us laymen to get confused. Especially when we're drunk.
And you'd think he'd pick up on this, that we got lost somewhere back in the explanation of why cold fusion means warm beer. It's like sitting at the feet of some sparked-up Sagan or hammered Stephen Hawking. Only a little more animated than the latter.
Anyway, the guy is an enigma, for certain.

Posted by: spongeworthy at December 02, 2009 03:38 PM (rplL3)

37 Incidentally, the science is settled, so you have no need to see the raw data and the adjustments made thereto which settled the science in the first place.

It's settled.

Stop looking backwards. Water under the bridge.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:39 PM (jlvw3)

38 There's no Santa?
YOU LIE!!!!!

Posted by: erg at December 02, 2009 03:39 PM (tWf3S)

39
Apparently sometime in 1992 they decided that computer storage would
become MORE AND MORE EXPENSIVE and so they had to hit the delete button
to save on costs.


That doesn't pass the smell test at all. They realized it was more evidence of their crimes than 'data'. Had to get rid of it, like any good conman.

Posted by: Dang Straights at December 02, 2009 03:39 PM (Haq+B)

40 Stop looking backwards. Water under the bridge.
Now give us more money, and thiiiiiissss time will tell the truth!!

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:40 PM (Be4xl)

41 I was told that there would be no math on this blog.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at December 02, 2009 03:41 PM (l1Wlr)

42
The reason they "threw out the data" is a real hoot, too. They needed the space.

hahaha, isn't that the most absurd excuse you ever heard from an adult in academia?


Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:42 PM (ohoCZ)

43 Threw. It. Fucking. Out.



But oh, here -- here are the numbers as we tweaked them. But we can't
tell you how they were tweaked as we threw out the records of the
tweaking.





Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:37 PM (jlvw3)
They have more acronyms than you can shake a stick at but DAT escaped them somehow.

Posted by: Rocks at December 02, 2009 03:42 PM (Q1lie)

44 God. I just went to tree hugger dot com, and some utter idiot there asked whether there is anything we could do to make "war" more green. Here's a taste:

"We spend more money on war than anything I can think of? Is there a way to make it green? Any ideas? Perhaps we can kill two birds with one stone."

I put in a few responses, but it's highly unlikely they will appear, since they have to go through a moderator. In response to yet another cockholster who responded that "we are no good for the planet", I suggested that he swallow a couple of spent fuel rods.

Posted by: Winston Smith at December 02, 2009 03:42 PM (MFbfZ)

45 Think of the poor scientists who didn't actually lie...they just used data that was smelly as can be because they were scared of the Anglian bullies...you don't want to put them out of work, do you?
Think of the children wimps!

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:43 PM (Be4xl)

46 @35 - saved jobs figures, as far as Spendulus construction data is concerned, come from the grant writer's projections. The writers know nothing of construction, but it is to their best interest to inflate so their grant is funded. There are requirements for reporting during construction but the contractor is guessing too. Here's where your jobs are created: who is going to audit all that data? New job! Who manages the contracts (because they need a manager, trust me)? New job! etc.

Posted by: isostan at December 02, 2009 03:43 PM (isLP4)

47 Kinda sounds like how when we asked how the White
House calculated the "saved" jobs figures and they said, "Shut up,
that's how. You figure it out. What are we, your errand boys?"

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:37 PM (ohoCZ)

Maybe that's where all the data and stuff went. Was Obama in England around that time?

Posted by: Rocks at December 02, 2009 03:43 PM (Q1lie)

48 One thing missing from IowaHawk's discussion is the "divergence problem" or "the decline" that Mann and Jones were "trying to hide". The quick and dirty version is that over most of the recent 100-150 years that we have somewhat reliable temperature readings for, the tree rings and other proxy records generally agree with the temperature records fairly well. However, in several key proxy series that Mann and others have relied on very heavily in their long term reconstructions, such as one by Briffa, and another from Hughes using bristlecone pines from Sheep Mountain in California, the recent tree ring data "diverge" from the temperature records. The temperatures post 1960 in the area of the Briffa series are rising, but Briffa's tree rings are showing a significant decline. This is the "divergence problem" that McIntyre and McKittrick were trying to force Mann and others to acknowledge and discuss in their papers and in the IPCC report.
Instead, Mann and others started truncating the proxy series that showed "the decline" and grafting actual thermometer data onto the end of them to show a better correlation than they actually have. Without that good correlation in the recent temperatures, the statistical analysis of past temperatures would have so much uncertainty that the margin of error in the reconstruction would be larger than all the ups and downs in global temperature for the last 1000 years. This little subterfuge forced them to hide the data, lest McIntyre get the raw data and figure out what they had done.
To add insult to injury, Mann actually had the gall to deny on his propaganda site RealClimate, that any responsible scientist would ever graft thermometer data onto proxy data, despite Jones and others actually naming the process "Mike's Nature Trick", referring to the journal Nature, in which Mann published an article using data sets where that exact thing had been done.

Posted by: Tex at December 02, 2009 03:43 PM (73eJg)

49 but they're not gonna show the methodology of how they arrived at their conclusions.

This is what I want the most: show us morons how you did it.

But they can't. Not "they won't", but they can't. There's no way to retrace the steps they took.

Whatever they've published so far they can't reproduce.

Posted by: tachyonshuggy at December 02, 2009 03:44 PM (yUybe)

50 Re: 39

I was making a joke as to their reasons of throwing the data away. That is not the reason for throwing it away (as far as I know).

I don't actually know why they claimed they threw it away.

Anyone else know?

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:44 PM (jlvw3)

51 Threw it out. Threw it away. Apparently sometime in 1992 they decided
that computer storage would become MORE AND MORE EXPENSIVE and so they
had to hit the delete button to save on costs.

Yeah, there's a bogglingly unbelievable part. Fundamental observations, the foundation of all your work, and you throw it out for lack of a tape backup?

Geez, within a few years you have multi-GIG of storage smaller than a postage stamp, and they're deleting FUNDAMENTAL work? Why, exactly?

Posted by: Meredith Baxter at December 02, 2009 03:44 PM (MMC8r)

52 So once again it is a game of "Here are my conclusions. You want my
data and methods? Sorry, no. Accept the conclusions. The science is
settled, you see."

I guess we'll have to accept their conclusions on faith.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at December 02, 2009 03:44 PM (muUqs)

53 Sorry I misled there. Was intended as a joke and I thought that intent was obvious... re-reading, I see now it just sounds like I'm telling you that's the reason for the deletion.

Sorry, again. Misfired joke.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:45 PM (jlvw3)

54 ya think I could get these guys to take a look at my taxes?

Posted by: justanotherbostonian at December 02, 2009 03:45 PM (GFaLW)

55 OT but very VERY important.

DEM Lawmaker says failing media will 'need govt.' to help it's failing business model.

WTF?!

Posted by: MelodicMetal at December 02, 2009 03:45 PM (x4S2a)

56 Whoa damn my badly-telegraphed joke is causing a lot of problems.

I made up the part about deleting it to save computer space. I don't know why they did it.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:46 PM (jlvw3)

57 Ace, they said something about they were moving to a new building and had space concerns.
Which I think means that they wanted to send the data and anyone who asked about it into space.
I'll see if I can find where I read that.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:46 PM (Be4xl)

58 I don't actually know why they claimed they threw it away.



Anyone else know?





Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:44 PM (jlvw3)


The claim is it was dumped during a move to new digs.

Posted by: Rocks at December 02, 2009 03:47 PM (Q1lie)

59 Yeah, it was space concerns -- in a new building. Unbelievable.

Posted by: Popcorn at December 02, 2009 03:47 PM (SHnn5)

60
They needed the space, Ace.

They said that during their move into their new digs at UEA they didn't have room for the data which was on both paper and magnetic tapes.

I shit you not.

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:48 PM (ohoCZ)

61 #39

Really? Storage is too expensive? With the decline in storage prices and billions allocated to research efforts from the UN and individual countries?

Once again, they're taking us for rubes. Who would fall for an excuse like this?

Posted by: Winston Smith at December 02, 2009 03:48 PM (MFbfZ)

62 "Is there a way to reverse engineer the statistical methods they used? Would that be prohibitively difficult?"

Depends what you mean by "methods." As far as the basic statistical methodology for reconstructing historic temperature goes (pick a dependent variable y, pick a set of proxy predictors x, find their principle components, regress y against the principle components, predict the missing y's) there's nothing inherently wrong with it, and is defensible as a general app. Mann has been relatively open about that analysis and access to those datasets; MM and Wegman actually used it to critique Mann's selection of PC time frame. The only thing I would add is that any kind of regression model is going to result in predictions that have lower variance than the original y. For example the backcast global temperatures for 1058, 1059... etc coming out of the model will likely have lower variability than the observed data. To draw a trendline from those years you'd probably want to do monte carlo simulations that take into account the standard error band around the prediction.

The real gobstopper in this deal is the data itself... the dog that didn't bark. In all the discussion about Mann's reconstructive modeling methodology, nobody really considered whether y was an actually valid measure of temperature. The whole process of translating ground station data into y was the seriously ugly part of the whole process. Even the people who were in charge of it (see harry_read_me.txt) have no fucking clue how their own data processing / data hygiene code worked. And if y isn't a valid measure of temperature, the whole process of modeling it is an entire waste of time.

Posted by: iowahawk at December 02, 2009 03:48 PM (veL4N)

63 Okay, but why was it dumped? That is the timeframe of the dumping (the move), but why actually erase your supposed scientific Rosetta Stone?

Actually I have a feeling the answer is going to be "to save precious computer space," just like I joked, but I don't know that.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:48 PM (jlvw3)

64 The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals stored on paper and magnetic tape were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.

London Times link: http://tinyurl.com/yzvyoxh

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:49 PM (Be4xl)

65 I don't actually know why they claimed they threw it away.



Anyone else know?

I needed hard drive space for my Miley Cyrus MP3s.

Posted by: Phil Jones at December 02, 2009 03:49 PM (MMC8r)

66 1980s.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:50 PM (Be4xl)

67 I made up the part about deleting it to save computer space. I don't know why they did it.

Because they're shabby scientists and they didn't need it after they'd begun to be rewarded for coming up with the "right" answers. In fact, keeping the raw data was like keeping a murder weapon around: no upside, all downside.


Posted by: tachyonshuggy at December 02, 2009 03:50 PM (yUybe)

68 I also read that they did threw the data (see Spencer Trilby) away due to the amount of space it took up.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at December 02, 2009 03:50 PM (muUqs)

69
#50

Supposedly the CRU was moving into a new building and they did not have the space to store everything so the tossed it.

Posted by: bulwark at December 02, 2009 03:50 PM (jvrmc)

70 Ah. Like I said, my bad joke was close enough to the truth that it got mistaken for the truth.

>>>They needed the space, Ace.

>>They said that during their move into their new digs at UEA they didn't have room for the data which was on both paper and magnetic tapes.

>>>I shit you not.

Well there you go. My lame joke really was the fucking reason for throwing the data out, more or less.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:50 PM (jlvw3)

71
Whoa damn my badly-telegraphed joke is causing a lot of problems.


Not really, dude. It sounds like something they'd say. But we knew it was a joke. Actually, it was more plausible than the lame-ass excuse they did use.


Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:50 PM (ohoCZ)

72 funny climate change mandate from NBC (GE) that came out about a week before the hacked e-mails

http://tinyurl.com/yfz3o69

at least Jimmy Fallon managed to not break character

Posted by: Blackford Oakes at December 02, 2009 03:51 PM (DtTM9)

73 the whole process of modeling it is an entire waste of time.

Posted by: iowahawk at December 02, 2009 03:48 PM (veL4N)

Not time, money. MONEY! Get it? I have a lot of research graduates to pay you know?

Posted by: Tom Wigley at December 02, 2009 03:51 PM (Q1lie)

74 Really? Storage is too expensive? With the decline in storage prices and billions allocated to research efforts from the UN and individual countries?
England is a small country, you know! There's just not that much room.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:51 PM (Be4xl)

75 Hey guys whats up sorry for interupting but we need to chime in on this issue. This is standard scientific procedure people so you can stop freaking out. When we finally succeeded at making a plane fly after 400 plus failed attempts we quickly made sure we put all the documents and experimental notes of all our failed planes in a burn barrel and fired it up. OpSec is what it is so you people need to just get with the program.

Posted by: Wright Brothers at December 02, 2009 03:51 PM (SqAkN)

76 They said that during their move into their new digs at UEA they didn't have room for the data which was on both paper and magnetic tapes.

I shit you not.

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:48 PM (ohoCZ)
They didn't trust me?

Pricks.

Posted by: Moore's Law at December 02, 2009 03:52 PM (A46hP)

77 Iowahawk is so banned from LGF for this.Posted by: isostan at December 02, 2009 03:36 PM (isLP4)

Iowahawk had the good taste and tact to quietly de-link LGF from the Iowahawk blog without fanfare or a verbal blast. Unfortunately, ol' CJ had the poor taste and bad manners to piss and moan about it and accuse Iowahawk of ingratitude.
With his cogent and concise review of the scandal above, Iowahawk has shown that he has something Charles either lost or never had: a rational grasp of objective reality. If you were Charles, would you want your followers to compare your rantings to Iowahawk's rationality?

Posted by: David Birney at December 02, 2009 03:52 PM (Ate22)

78 They dumped it (or said they did and maybe didn't) to likely avoid having them around for FOI requests, or that's what some people theorize Ace.

Space my ass.

Posted by: Gaff at December 02, 2009 03:53 PM (CMpbs)

79 Apparently sometime in 1992 they decided that computer storage would become MORE AND MORE EXPENSIVE and so they had to hit the delete button to save on costs.
Guys, its called off-site storage.

Posted by: HR Department at December 02, 2009 03:53 PM (V9SYy)

80 My brother Michael was always a little weird.

Posted by: Manfred Mann and his Earth Band at December 02, 2009 03:53 PM (MFbfZ)

81 In related news, when I moved into my new apartment, there wasn't enough room for my kids, so I killed them and buried them near a rest stop.

They were just children.

I can always make more pretty similar to them.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:53 PM (jlvw3)

82 The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then
adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The
revised figures were kept, but the originals stored on paper and magnetic
tape were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:54 PM (ohoCZ)

83 We're still waiting for our grants, you know.

Posted by: Those Cold Fusion Guys at December 02, 2009 03:54 PM (MMC8r)

84 >>>Guys, its called off-site storage.


Yeah, that is hilarious. There are huge companies that do nothing BUT this, store huge amounts of corporate data and records in warehouses out in the boonies where land is dirt cheap.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:55 PM (jlvw3)

85 Probably threw the data away in Acorn trash bags.

Posted by: Mr. Pink at December 02, 2009 03:55 PM (SqAkN)

86
England is a small country, you know!

lol

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:55 PM (ohoCZ)

87 Since the methodology problems are front and center, I guess the station siting issues are now secondary? Yet, those are the ones that really bothered me. Stations, once in pasture, now surrounded by asphalt, air conditioner's nearby, stations move to rooftops etc.

True fact, I check on the station nearest to me and it was moved from next to Mobile Bay to a point a mile inland and 90 feet higher after Ivan.

Adjust that.

Posted by: toby928 at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (PD1tk)

88 For the record, I absolutely do not believe that they don't have the data. It had to be on the computersin the first place, unless they just completely totally made up their Valu-Rite data.
Even if they decided to delete it all because it would prove them to be lying liars, I know somebody out there kept a copy.
Here's hoping one of the people who has it is the same one who leaked the emails and is just giving them a little more rope before releasing it.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (Be4xl)

89 England is thinking about deleting all of Shakespeare's plays and sonnets.

Takes up too much space.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (jlvw3)

90 If I had pulled any of this shit with my thesis adviser, my committee would have laughed me out of the conference room.

Posted by: Techie at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (wVPwI)

91 Yeah, that is hilarious. There are huge companies
that do nothing BUT this, store huge amounts of corporate data and
records in warehouses out in the boonies where land is dirt cheap.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:55 PM (jlvw3)

How much could they have had? It probably would have fit on a few hundred tapes at most. We're talking a file cabinet here.

Posted by: Tom Wigley at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (Q1lie)

92 The records retention part rings true to me --- I set up several large-scale doc. management/scanning/workflow systems back then and most non-regulated organizations were astoundingly bad at maintaining legacy data. Anything involved with the FDA or EPA was good, but everything else was a complete crapshoot.

I can easily imagine the source data being shelved and forgotten about once the researchers started working with the adjusted data ... and, after time, the source data got lost, misfiled, erased, disk crashes, pipe burst, et cetera. And they wouldn't know it until years afterward.

Then again, they may have had a shredding party and played "Hide the Magnet" among the hard drives.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (ruzrP)

93 I'm unaavailable for comment..

Posted by: Zombie Jeff Goldblum at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (Vu6sl)

94 There's actually a great description of the subversion of the scientific progress at this link: http://bit.ly/5j2ap5

Cool graphics show just how the true scientific process has been undermined by these guys.

Posted by: Winston Smith at December 02, 2009 03:57 PM (MFbfZ)

95 You can't go five miles in any major city in Texas and not pass a climate controlled storage facility. That's the lamest f*cking excuse for destroying data as I've ever seen. It is funny.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at December 02, 2009 03:57 PM (muUqs)

96 Threw. It. Fucking. Out.





But oh, here -- here are the numbers as we tweaked them. But we can't
tell you how they were tweaked as we threw out the records of the
tweaking.




Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 03:37 PM (jlvw3)
What? You mean that once we scientists have results, we don't need the original physical evidence anymore? Geez, if I'd've known that, I wouldn't have left the show.

Posted by: Gil Grissom, LVPD at December 02, 2009 03:58 PM (Ate22)

97 >>>How much could they have had? It probably would have fit on a few hundred tapes at most. We're talking a file cabinet here.

Where you see a file cabinet, I see a wet bar.

Fuck you.

We needed the space for our rumpus room.

Posted by: Phil Jones at December 02, 2009 03:58 PM (jlvw3)

98
I asked about this on Sunday. I doubt the data would fill a 10x10x10 room, which is pretty much the size of a bedroom. That's a thousand cubic feet! A lot of reams of paper can fit in a 1000cu.ft.

Posted by: a.k.a. with the tales of dead celebrities at December 02, 2009 03:58 PM (ohoCZ)

99 81
In related news, when I moved into my new apartment, there wasn't
enough room for my kids, so I killed them and buried them near a rest
stop.



They were just children.


FINALLY someone who gets it.


Posted by: Peter Singer at December 02, 2009 03:59 PM (DtTM9)

100 y = b0 + b1*PC1 + b2*PC2 + ... + bp*PCp + error

I was told there would be no math.

Posted by: Albert V Gore the Turd at December 02, 2009 04:00 PM (qXVP6)

101 >>>I asked about this on Sunday. I doubt the data would fill a 10x10x10 room, which is pretty much the size of a bedroom. That's a thousand cubic feet! A lot of reams of paper can fit in a 1000cu.ft.

Two words: Fuck you.

Two more words: Bumper pool.

Posted by: Phil Jones, Former Head of CRU at December 02, 2009 04:00 PM (jlvw3)

102
At what point does this change from 'discarding data' to 'destruction of evidence'? Anyway you want to look this, it's criminal.

Posted by: Dang Straights at December 02, 2009 04:00 PM (Haq+B)

103 Storage space can be a real bitch. When I finally inventedwhat I thought was aworking artificial heart finding storage space for all my pesky old data was beyond frustrating. I finally settled on shoving it in the back of my old Honda Civic, which I promptly sold for 500 dollars on Craigslist. That settled my storage problems and I made enough to hit the strip clubs over the weekend. Ok now who wants to be the first to try my brand new artificial heart? Come on don't be scared step right up!

Posted by: Dr. Robert Jarvik at December 02, 2009 04:00 PM (SqAkN)

104 Whoops...don't know why that link was broken. Here's a new one: http://tinyurl.com/yczqw8r

Posted by: Winston Smith at December 02, 2009 04:00 PM (MFbfZ)

105 When the Library of Congress moves into their new digs, I hear they're having a 2- books-for-a-dollar sale. Copies of the Constitution sold separately.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at December 02, 2009 04:01 PM (muUqs)

106 We wanted to keep the Holy Grail of Climate Science but Doom 3D just came out and it's a 4.3 Gigabyte load.

So, to reiterate: Fuck you.

Posted by: Phil Jones, Who Just Got the Lightning Gun at December 02, 2009 04:01 PM (jlvw3)

107 There is none greater than Iowahawk, but they they sure give him a lot of material to work with.

Posted by: td at December 02, 2009 04:02 PM (sSHTM)

108 The data were gathered from weather stations around the world and then adjusted to take account of variables in the way they were collected. The revised figures were kept, but the originals stored on paper and magnetic tape were dumped to save space when the CRU moved to a new building.
You import the data from the tapes or from paper.
Then it exists on the computer.
Now, it is theoretically possible to delete it off the computer, but the claim is that once the tapes and paper were destroyed, then the data is gone.
That ain't how it works.
This isn't about physical space.
It's about liars.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 04:02 PM (Be4xl)

109 ace --- of course there are huge companies that do storage and records management. And storage is cheap ... and all that stuff.

Companies and individuals make very, very bad decisions with regard to records retention ... trust me on this. I spec'd records management, scan-file, solutions, web based retrieval for large(ish) companies and universities.

The site walk-throughs were invariably disastors -- nothing was where it was supposed to be, nobody knew where things actually were, and, all the while, the paperwork keeps sloshing about.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at December 02, 2009 04:02 PM (ruzrP)

110 This destroyed-data and secret-tweaking-methods is only half of the global warming scandal.

The CRU was analyzing their reconstructed historic climate records. The other (more ridiculous) side of what they call "climate science" is computational modeling -- the supposed ability to create simulations of the complex system known as ALL OF THE WEATHER ON PLANET FUCKING EARTH.

The level of complexity and combinatorial magnitude of a planetary climate system is so incredibly huge, it is literally impossible to simulate or model, and thus impossible to predict.

That's right. I said it. Impossible.

The pretense that it can be done is snake oil. Pseudo-science. Astrology.

But there's plenty of economic and political advantage to be gained by pretending that you can.

Posted by: Phinn at December 02, 2009 04:03 PM (6w2q0)

111 A friend of mine did his Doctoral on crabs. He collected crabs from all over. Thousands of crabs, in hundreds of formaldehyde filled mason jars. Big ones, little ones, packed like pickled eggs. Jars packed in cardboard boxes.

He kept these crabs for over 20 years and finally gave them to me (for my kids to look at I guess). I kept the three strangest looking jars and pitched the rest.

Will no one weep for the crab data?

Posted by: toby928 at December 02, 2009 04:03 PM (PD1tk)

112 One thing Senor Burge left out--each independent variable--the X's--are themselves incredibly complex Y's with their own error values.
Now here is hwere it gets very, very rough from the warmers--all those error terms have both systemic and random error built-in. One can correct for systemic error, but not random error. It is apparent to me that all the data massaging has so completely overloaded the caluculations with error that the "research" to this point is meaningless. We'd be just as well off trying to figure out the earth's climate from hidden code in Dr. Seuss books.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 04:03 PM (B+qrE)

113 I thought they threw it out for the same reason you have to hide a body.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 02, 2009 04:04 PM (dQdrY)

114 Bumper, I ain't hearin' that, see?

You don't destroy the supposed Holy Grail that proves the world will end.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 04:04 PM (jlvw3)

115 If it's a choice between saving the data and a jacuzzi, well, you can't fight government oppression with a stiff neck.

Posted by: James Hansen at December 02, 2009 04:04 PM (muUqs)

116

You import the data from the tapes or from paper.

Then it exists on the computer.

I know how this goes. And then you put the computer in the water. Then you go into the computer. The shark's in the water. Right?

Posted by: Capt Quint at December 02, 2009 04:04 PM (ohoCZ)

117 #111

What a coincidence! I practically have a Doctorate in crabs myself!

Posted by: Madonna at December 02, 2009 04:05 PM (MFbfZ)

118 What is all the fuss? I am making big bucks off this shit, don't suggest that this data is false.
Bush again, damn him.

Posted by: Al Gore at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (2+9Yx)

119 The level of complexity and combinatorial magnitude of a planetary climate system is so incredibly huge, it is literally impossible to simulate or model, and thus impossible to predict.
It remains coincidentally ironic that Lorenz was a meteorologist and came up with Chaos Theory while working on climate models.

Posted by: Entropy at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (IsLT6)

120 This isn't about records, either, Bumper. This is about evidence. Primary evidence.

Ever go to a police station? They have evidence boxes for crimes going back thirty, forty years.

Posted by: ace at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (jlvw3)

121 Guys, I think we oughta take those scientist fellers at their word. Nobody believed me when I lost my golden plates either...

Posted by: Joseph Smith at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (DtTM9)

122 The data were gathered from weather stations around the world

...and probably wasn't even trustworthy before "tweaking."

But anyway. Surely the folks who dig up the ice cores and launch the satellites keep copies of their data.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (NtiET)

123 We are all very, very sorry about this. We all knew that my brother was a complete and total liar sincewe were kids.
I probably should had said something sooner, butMichael always sent the best Christmas gifts.

Posted by: Amie Mann at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (IHbof)

124 Piltdown Mann is looking more and more like an accurate nickname...
Now that's funny!

Posted by: runningrn at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (vEclT)

125 Enough with the crabs, already. My face still hurts.

Posted by: Tiger Woods at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (MFbfZ)

126 And if y isn't a valid measure of temperature, the whole process of modeling it is an entire waste of time.

That's what I'm saying -- modeling is a waste of time even if we had perfect data going back 100,000 years.

The problem is not the data. It's the complexity.

Climate can't be predicted.

Can't.

Can't.

Can't predict the stock market, either.

Posted by: Phinn at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (6w2q0)

127
Circa

I've always suspected Green Eggs and Ham had hidden code in it somewhere.

Posted by: bulwark at December 02, 2009 04:08 PM (jvrmc)

128 117 #111What a coincidence! I practically have a Doctorate in crabs myself!
Posted by: Madonna at December 02, 2009 04:05 PM (MFbfZ)
Lovely! Did you by chance attend Cownell University?

Posted by: Keith Olbermaniac at December 02, 2009 04:08 PM (Vu6sl)

129 112,
Crichton pointed out once that they were akin to 5 year olds positing detailed theories on the sun's power with just as much basis in reality as "it is a giant orange" because of the massive chaos driven system the Earth is....
was the Roman record for the explosion of Vesuvius that devoured Herculenium and Pompeii adjusted up or down to reflect the unexpected and unmodelable event of a massive volcanic explosion?

etc etc etc
The kids are cute when they think the cow can literally jump over the moon, but then again my 5 year old was not wanting the power to destroy my livelihood, and take away electricity because the cow needed gas money either.....

Posted by: sven10077 at December 02, 2009 04:08 PM (dCpk3)

130 Oh, and I'd like to suggest "Meltdown Mann" in a nod to AGW.

Posted by: runningrn at December 02, 2009 04:08 PM (vEclT)

131 the reason the data was deleted is the same reason this whole fiasco started in the first place: these people believe that the ends justify the means.

EVERYONE INVOLVED from al gore, to the MSM, to the nobel prize scandis all knew this stuff was (at the very least) skewed in a pre-determinied direction. but no one cared because they all agreed on what they wanted the end result to be. they don't care how they get there, as long as they they get there.
that is how every liberal thinks. from these so called scientists, to
politicians, ACORN, and all the other people and groups I could list.

someone I used to greatly respect and admire told me recently: "if it ends our reliance on oil then I don't care how many lies are told and laws are broken".

a lot of blood has been spilled the world over because of attitudes like that.

Posted by: justanotherbostonian at December 02, 2009 04:08 PM (GFaLW)

132 42
The reason they "threw out the data" is a real hoot, too. They needed the space.hahaha, isn't that the most absurd excuse you ever heard from an adult in academia?

They received millions in grant money but they couldn't spend $65 of it on a fucking zip drive. These guys are supposed to be smart?

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (IqfKc)

133 Thanks be to Gaia I've moved on to a new venture.
OK, now! Who here wants to shake my hand?

Posted by: Al Gore at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (vEclT)

134 The pretense that it can be done is snake oil. Pseudo-science. Astrology.
But we want to believe the little lies, like it was about space.
And of course the polar bears are disappearing, so we know the Big Truth is really super true!

Posted by: Jon Stewart Viewer at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (Be4xl)

135 Ok now who wants to be the first to try my brand new artificial heart? Come on don't be scared step right up!

Posted by: Dr. Robert Jarvik at December 02, 2009 04:00 PM (SqAkN)
Bizarre obscure fact: ventriloquist Paul Winchell was awarded a patent on an artificial heart design. But contrary to his claims, Winchell's patent was not used in any way in the Jarvik design.

Posted by: stuiec at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (Ate22)

136 They threw out the data do to a lack of space? I know of a fortune 500 company whose entire data base would fit into my laptop (twice).

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (kKP5O)

137 No real scientist would throw away raw data that took years to gather and compile. That would be akin to taking years to make a fine carving. Then taking a photo of it and throwing the carving away.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (tf9Ne)

138 No original data, no science.

Posted by: marmo at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (Tm9Vp)

139 The site walk-throughs were invariably disastors -- nothing was where it was supposed to be, nobody knew where things actually were, and, all the while, the paperwork keeps sloshing about.Yeah, BumperStickerist, when I was a trial lawyer, I can recount with you the horrors of individual firms sloppy and inaccurate record keeping systems. I think, however, you are overlooking one major point.
THESE PEOPLES WORK WAS DEPENDENT ON THE RECORDS.
If I am trying to prove that X = Y plus Z, and, more importantly, if each year I have to write up a grant request to keep funding my research on why X=Y plus Z, you can damn well bet that I will have the working papers on the value of X, Y and Z. Material regarding the value of A, B and C, those might get discarded. But where my bread is buttered. Those, I am going to have.
Also, I think it is safe to assume that the people in charge of the records, so-called scientist, have a deeper understanding of the need to maintain and protect the raw data than say, the administrative assistant to the Vice-President in charge of marketing, who is primarily worried about how much of the product they are moving (Because that effects his/her bonus) than say, how the product was safety tested.
Can I see maybe some percentage of the raw data from some weather stations missing - yea. Whole time periods, for every station. Too much of a stretch.

Posted by: Mallamutt at December 02, 2009 04:09 PM (V9SYy)

140 I never fucked you, Keith. I told you you were a douchebag, and I meant it, so quit stalking me.

Posted by: Madonna at December 02, 2009 04:10 PM (MFbfZ)

141 Bumper, I sort of agree with you and disagree with you. I work at an engineering company and as a company our records are trash. We have an old office building that is full of paper that I doubt that anyone could really get to if they needed too. However, (and this is where I disagree) our engineers on whole are incredibly anal and keep all of their own records separately and can show their documentation on a project they worked on in the 70's in about 15 minutes max. I just can't believe that all of these <b>scientists</b> let their personal records just get destroyed.

I mean they all can't be money grubbing whores, can they?

Posted by: JAFKIAC at December 02, 2009 04:10 PM (3ZqcN)

142 What other discredited mystery religions -- as mathematician David
Berlinski calls Darwinism -- do you want to teach children? Sorcery?
Phrenology? Alchemy?

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:10 PM (kKP5O)

143 Sun Spots?
Never heard of them.

Posted by: Charlie Gibson at December 02, 2009 04:11 PM (2+9Yx)

144 122
We are all very, very sorry about this. We all knew that my brother was a complete and total liar sincewe were kids.
I probably should had said something sooner, butMichael always sent the best Christmas gifts.
Posted by: Amie Mann at December 02, 2009 04:07 PM (IHbof)
If Michael ever needs a place to stay, tell him he's always welcome.

Posted by: Isle of Mann at December 02, 2009 04:11 PM (Vu6sl)

145 Well, I feel that I too must share some of the blame in my husband's recent impropriety. I'm a bit of an emasculating shrew, and I fear I may have distracted Michael from performing properly.

Posted by: Ida Mann at December 02, 2009 04:12 PM (vEclT)

146 The British are ... thrifty?

here's some precedent:
[Terry Gilliam] said in 1971 he got a call that the BBC was going to erase all of
the original tapes [of Monty Python's Flying Circus] to save money. "That is what the BBC did in those
days; they wanted the videotapes to reuse." According to the
documentary, Gilliam came to the rescue, buying the run of "Python"
episodes before they could be erased.

-------------

I agree that the sloppiness of the records keeping doesn't jibe with the seriousness of the research effort. They may well have made a conscious decision to lose the original data rather than have their scam exposed.

And, I agree that, given the seriousness of the stated purpose of their research, they should have put in place a records management system with the same rigor you would expect from a person applying for a patent.

but I know from experience that records management is one of the lowest priorities any organization has and that an organization which has a transient population involved (i.e. grad students) is going to be teh suck.

.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at December 02, 2009 04:13 PM (ruzrP)

147 You know, we could have printed the data out but the printer was down that day.
Cheers!
Phil (liar, liar pants on fire) Jones

Posted by: mpfs, Indentured Fish Stick to the State at December 02, 2009 04:13 PM (iYbLN)

148 I need to start cheering for someone else.

Posted by: Youda Mann at December 02, 2009 04:13 PM (MFbfZ)

149 Millions in grants and can't afford a storage closet?

Posted by: anonymoose at December 02, 2009 04:14 PM (ZgvjV)

150 And of course the polar bears are disappearing, so we know the Big Truth is really super true!
There's more polar bears today then at any time in memory.
They're endangered, whatever, fuckall if there ain't a lot of em.

Posted by: Entropy at December 02, 2009 04:15 PM (IsLT6)

151 That ain't how it works.
This isn't about physical space.
It's about liars.



Or those damn office-cleaning people. They're always dumping old coffee on papers and computors and stuff.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at December 02, 2009 04:15 PM (lBGI2)

152 This is Gaiaism, straight up!

Posted by: Janeane Garofalo at December 02, 2009 04:15 PM (gbCNS)

153 If only they would have given me a ring!

Posted by: Fibber McGee at December 02, 2009 04:15 PM (vEclT)

154 Has anyone published a paper with nothing but satellite data (the best we have) and a single regression for each proxy data type, then overlaid the results? I have read several individual accounts in which proxy sets that did not conform to Mann were mentioned but no summary of all of the proxy sets.

Posted by: Jean at December 02, 2009 04:15 PM (tJF9l)

155
Yeah, the Beeb destroyed or lost a few episodes of Doctor Who, too. Dummies.

Posted by: a.k.a. at December 02, 2009 04:15 PM (ohoCZ)

156 We would have come and picked up all the data!

Posted by: Door to Door Storage at December 02, 2009 04:16 PM (vEclT)

157 THESE PEOPLES WORK WAS DEPENDENT ON THE RECORDS.
Well, it was dependent on what they claim the records say, so yeh, they weren't careless about them...exactly.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 04:17 PM (Be4xl)

158 I'm just glad that there was room in the closet for me!

Posted by: Monika's Blue Dress at December 02, 2009 04:17 PM (vEclT)

159
The only way their excuse could have sounded more absurd is if they said they recycled the paper data.

Posted by: a.k.a. at December 02, 2009 04:17 PM (ohoCZ)

160 A 320 gig pocket hard drive $50.
Paying a temp for the 3 hours to back up your data $27.
Pulling off the greatest theft in world history priceless.

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:18 PM (kKP5O)

161 Hollywood used to burn old films for beach parties.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 02, 2009 04:18 PM (dQdrY)

162 #89

Marlowe goes first.

Posted by: Retread at December 02, 2009 04:18 PM (B1l1L)

163 We would have come and picked up all the data!

We would have paid!

Posted by: Big Oil at December 02, 2009 04:19 PM (PD1tk)

164 here's some precedent:
[Terry Gilliam] said in 1971 he got a call that the BBC was going to erase all of the original tapes [of Monty Python's Flying Circus] to save money. "That is what the BBC did in those days; they wanted the videotapes to reuse." According to the documentary, Gilliam came to the rescue, buying the run of "Python" episodes before they could be erased.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at December 02, 2009 04:13 PM (ruzrP)
Yes, and they used to erase and reuse tapes for radio all the time, but this is a different situation. I don't think they claim that they erased the data and reused the tapes (and papers that some of the data is claimed to have been on). It seems that they, stupidly (of course), claim that they just tossed the stuff - more of a physical storage issue than anything else, I gather.
Of course, I only half believe them. They are dumb enough and have little enough respect for science to chuck the original data (and what I've seen of their code shows them to be disorganized enough), but I don't think they did. I think that some was lost and most is being hidden - even though it doesn't really matter, as their data manipulations don't prove anything about anything.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at December 02, 2009 04:19 PM (A46hP)

165 I've broken the source code.

222m222a222k222e222s222h222i222t222u222p222

Posted by: mpfs, Indentured Fish Stick to the State at December 02, 2009 04:19 PM (iYbLN)

166 Look, it's all very simple: We had to destroy the paper records because we needed room for our high-powered electromagnets, which we ran, accidentally, right next to all of our magnetic tapes.

As the kids say, "M'bad."

Posted by: Phil Jones, Former Head of CRU at December 02, 2009 04:19 PM (jlvw3)

167 The problem is not the data. It's the complexity.

For now. Mathematics and computing may advance to a point where systems that complex CAN be modeled. Look at all the shit we do now that was "impossible" a hundred years ago...

(That's another thing that pisses me off about the warmenists--the belief that mankind is powerful enough to "destroy the planet" but not smart enough to adapt to change.)

Posted by: HeatherRadish at December 02, 2009 04:20 PM (NtiET)

168 AJ's magical database machine:
1. Take paper and tapa data.
2. Export adjusted data without the raw data ever being in any database or spreadsheet, etc.
3. Profit!!

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 04:21 PM (Be4xl)

169 (That's another thing that pisses me off about the warmenists--the
belief that mankind is powerful enough to "destroy the planet" but not
smart enough to adapt to change.)

And apparently not smart enough to back up their data.

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:22 PM (kKP5O)

170 Climate can't be predicted. Can't. Can't. Can't predict the stock market, either.

It's really that simple.

Posted by: AmishDude at December 02, 2009 04:22 PM (T0NGe)

171 The data would have probably fit in a $10 flash drive.

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:23 PM (kKP5O)

172 You don't destroy the supposed Holy Grail that proves the world will end.

If they had real original data that showed there was even a good chance that man was accelerating (not even necessarily causing) global warming, they would have backed that data up on a thousand different hard drives, locked paper copies in multiple swiss bank vaults, and published it in every single journal, magazine, and newspaper that would accept it just to be sure their names would get the credit.

Posted by: justanotherbostonian at December 02, 2009 04:23 PM (GFaLW)

173 Okay, I confess. I ate it and shit it out in the backyard then ate it again.

My bad.

Posted by: Phil Jones' Dog at December 02, 2009 04:24 PM (iYbLN)

174 THEY THREW OUT THE DATA.
Kinda like Acorn . . . seeing a pattern?

Posted by: Joe at December 02, 2009 04:24 PM (YwBI6)

175 Look, I'm going to come clean:

Did you ever see Tron?

An evil David Warner CPU went sort of beserk and I had to digitize myself and defeat him in a series of cybernetic-olympics contests. I blew my light-speeder through a wall and, all apologies, there was some moderate-to-catastrophic data loss.

I hope this explanation satisfies you, and sincerest apologies for previous confusion about these matters.

Fuck y'all still,

Phil Jones

Posted by: Phil Jones, Former Head of CRU at December 02, 2009 04:24 PM (jlvw3)

176 Tree rings for the past 100 years, except for those over there.
Ice cores for the past 1,000 years, except for 450 of them.
Wilford Brimley eyebrow cultures for the past 200 years, except after the onset of diabetes.
Weather station temp data for the past 150 years, except for the years when Germany was kicking the crap our of France or the reigns of Queens Victoria and Elizabeth II.
It's really all quite simple when one has a system.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 04:25 PM (B+qrE)

177
Anyone who has ever watched Yes Minister should understand what's happening.
James Hacker: How am I going to explain the missing documents to "The
Mail"?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: Well, this is what we normally do in
circumstances like these.
James Hacker: [reads memo] This file contains the complete set of
papers, except for a number of secret documents, a few others which
are part of still active files, some correspondence lost in the
floods of 1967...
James Hacker: Was 1967 a particularly bad winter?
Sir Humphrey Appleby: No, a marvelous winter. We lost no end of
embarrassing files.
James Hacker: [reads] Some records which went astray in the move to
London and others when the War Office was incorporated in the
Ministry of Defence, and the normal withdrawal of papers whose
publication could give grounds for an action for libel or breach of
confidence or cause embarrassment to friendly governments.
James Hacker: That's pretty comprehensive. How many does that
normally leave for them to look at?
James Hacker: How many does it actually leave? About a hundred?...
Fifty?... Ten?... Five?... Four?... Three?... Two?... One?...
Zero?



Posted by: lotocoti at December 02, 2009 04:25 PM (9v2CP)

178 You really want to use "The Dog Ate My Homework" defense?

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:25 PM (kKP5O)

179 Billy Preston reveals the AGW mathematical formula

Posted by: conscious, but incoherent at December 02, 2009 04:25 PM (Vu6sl)

180 Look at you all, hatin' on English men. Racists!

Posted by: Janeane Garofalo at December 02, 2009 04:26 PM (gbCNS)

181 We're kind of projecting here ... and I absolutely can picture Phil Jones saying "moo-who wah-ha-ha" as he shreds the tapes and shoots skeet with a variety of magnetic media as the pigeons ...

I'd like to point out, though, that the source data often gets put into boxes or on shelves once the data has been consolidated for the project, or it gets put into binders and either mislabled or the dumbass department head decides to have an assistant prepare that for storage and they use a pencil rather than a pen or Sharpie and the labels fade or the boxes get moved about and after a while it's a case of "Say? What's in that box? Where's the box? I thought you knew? No, Jamie moved the box. Jamie? Yeah, the intern from two years ago? Oh yeah, where'd she put it? I don't know ... et cetera.

Engineers, god love 'em, tend to be anal, which is a good thing. The issue with them is back-up copies or they decide they have a better idea on how to do a very straightforward thing and fuck the project completely up.


Posted by: BumperStickerist at December 02, 2009 04:26 PM (ruzrP)

182 You really want to use "The Dog Ate My Homework" defense?

That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Posted by: Phil Jones' Dog at December 02, 2009 04:26 PM (iYbLN)

183 Michael? Never heard of the guy.

Posted by: Whoda Mann at December 02, 2009 04:27 PM (wWwJR)

184
Monty Pythonesque?

Instead of "Bring Out Your Dead!" it's "Bring Out Your Data!"

A couples of janitors go around campuses and pick up data from scientists. But the data says, "Wait, I'm still needed."

And the janitor says, "What?"

The scientist says, "Nothing. Now off you go."

Janitor: "He says he still needed."

Scientist: "No, he's not."

Data: "I am!"

Scientist: "He's very old. Take him."

Data: "I can never get old!"

Data: "I don't want to go."

Data: "I feel fine."

Posted by: a.k.a. at December 02, 2009 04:27 PM (ohoCZ)

185 I needed the storage space for my hobo porn collection.

Posted by: Phil "Jackmaster" Jones at December 02, 2009 04:27 PM (ZgvjV)

186 NEW MEME ALERT:



Climategate = "Swiftboating"

Check out Jim Treacher for more on "Swifthack" meme...

Developing...

Posted by: Dudge at December 02, 2009 04:28 PM (AQj/2)

187 167
The problem is not the data. It's the complexity.

>> For
now. Mathematics and computing may advance to a point where systems
that complex CAN be modeled. Look at all the shit we do now that was
"impossible" a hundred years ago...
No.

Not even if you built a quantum computer that turned every molecule in the universe into a lightning-fast parallel processor.

When I say that it's impossible to model (and thus predict) a system of the size and complexity of a planetary climate, I mean impossible.

I don't mean "practically impossible with today's technology."

Really, really impossible, where it counts.

Posted by: Phinn at December 02, 2009 04:28 PM (6w2q0)

188 Can't predict the stock market, either.

It's really that simple.

Posted by: AmishDude at December 02, 2009 04:22 PM (T0NGe)
I have been arguing for years that econometric models show the clear limits of our modeling abilities. Yet, people bought these primitive climate models (almost linear models, it now appears, if "models" at all) as if they represented reality. And, even with the credit crisis, that not a single computer model I'm aware of predicted correctly, the climate "models" just chugged on. We have mathematically illiterate political and legal classes and that will kill us. This is why The Precedent's unprecedentedly imbecilic statement of "profit and earnings ratios" (and no one taking it apart in public and showing how it demonstrates a true, and dangerous, stupidity) bodes such ill for us.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at December 02, 2009 04:28 PM (A46hP)

189 I can go to ancestry.com and look at a census report from 1860 for God's sake and these idiots couldn't save the data that was supposedly going to change science?

Posted by: mpfs, Indentured Fish Stick to the State at December 02, 2009 04:28 PM (iYbLN)

190 Next T-shirt: HIDE THE DECLINE SAUSAGE

Posted by: Michael Rittenhouse at December 02, 2009 04:29 PM (2QFX4)

191 Okay, look, I made that up about Tron. I'm sorry. I felt "attacked" and "under siege." You know people say things that get taken out of context when they feel threatened.

The truth is I cheated on Tiger Woods' wife and she came over and beat me up and crashed her car into all the data. I covered that up, because I sincerely love my family, and Tiger Woods' family too.

I hope this most recent explanation satisfies all but the most determined denialists.

Suck my cock,

Phil Jones

Posted by: Phil Jones, Former Head of CRU at December 02, 2009 04:29 PM (jlvw3)

192 I needed the storage space for my hobo porn collection.
Eeeeewwww. I'll stick with lesbians, thanks.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 04:30 PM (B+qrE)

193 If only Michael et al would have entrusted their data to me!

Posted by: Al Capone's Safe at December 02, 2009 04:31 PM (vEclT)

194 Climategate = "Swiftboating"=Truth
FTFY

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 04:32 PM (B+qrE)

195 Eeeeewwww. I'll stick with lesbians, thanks.
Please don't take this personal, but I'd prefer not to be stuck by you.

Posted by: Meredith Baxter at December 02, 2009 04:32 PM (vEclT)

196 Do you suppose one of the global warming scientologists might have a backup copy of the forged data and methodology?

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:33 PM (kKP5O)

197

I see nothing wrong with the science behind anthropogenic global warming.

Posted by: Trofim Lysenko at December 02, 2009 04:33 PM (7+pP9)

198 Do you suppose one of the global warming scientologists might have a backup copy of the forged data and methodology?
Well, if it's out there, they might be hastening to destroy it now!

Posted by: runningrn at December 02, 2009 04:34 PM (vEclT)

199 As far as data storage is concerned, these are people involved in scientific research (supposedly) not some government administrative office, or an advertizing agency. All scientific theory is backed up by raw data to be shared with other scientists to do scientific reasearch as to the reproducibiliy of the original results. That is part of the scientific method. These people obviously knew they were endeavoring in bullshit.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at December 02, 2009 04:36 PM (lBGI2)

200
What I wanna know is how this is playing out in India and China.

I know China is not on board, but India sounded like they were 'warming' up to the idea of signing something in Hopenhagen. But now in the light of this scandal, are they talking publically about how this was all a hoax by Western leftists?


Posted by: a.k.a. at December 02, 2009 04:36 PM (ohoCZ)

201 I taught Phil Jones everything he knows, and I can teach you too for only 29.95! Buy my new book and DVD on how to get FREE GOVERNMENT MONEY!!!! IT IS ALL RIGHT THERE FOR THE TAKING CALL 18005551085 NOW!

Posted by: Mathew Lesko at December 02, 2009 04:37 PM (SqAkN)

202 The Left owes Nixon some apologies if erased data is cool now.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 02, 2009 04:37 PM (dQdrY)

203 Do you suppose one of the global warming scientologists might have a backup copy of the forged data and methodology?
>>Well, if it's out there, they might be hastening to destroy it now!
Oh, I think someone wants funding enough to release it.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 04:38 PM (Be4xl)

204 Mann has such a shiny head. To me, that spells gravitas.
And you can see how unconcerned he is. He must be telling the truth. I mean, what sort of person could be so calm and nonchalant when caught in a lie? It's not like he's a sociopath or someth___.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at December 02, 2009 04:39 PM (w41GQ)

205 What I wanna know is how this is playing out in India and China.

I know China is not on board, but India sounded like they were 'warming' up to the idea of signing something in Hopenhagen.


Posted by: a.k.a. at December 02, 2009 04:36 PM (ohoCZ)
My impression is that China is looking at global warming as a great point of economic attack on the West. When they announced their idea of wished-for future efficiencies in CO2/energy (not CO2 cuts of any sort) they were goading The Precedent and the West to keep on with the CO2 cutting economic suicide.
India seems to be succumbing to peer pressure - as most of their talk is fear of sanctions of some sort if they don't go along with the fraud.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at December 02, 2009 04:41 PM (A46hP)

206 Why not just promise not to hang the one who produces the raw data first?

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 02, 2009 04:41 PM (dQdrY)

207 Look, back in 92 we were getting almost 6Mb a day of new... data... from alt.binaries.pictures.erotica.female.hippie.treehuggers alone.. We simply didn't have the space back then to save everything. Priorities, yo.

Posted by: Phil Jones at December 02, 2009 04:43 PM (saRwI)

208 When I say that it's impossible to model (and thus predict) a system of the size and complexity of a planetary climate, I mean impossible. I didn't say predict. Models also explain.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at December 02, 2009 04:43 PM (NtiET)

209 Stations, once in pasture, now surrounded by asphalt, air conditioner's nearby, stations move to rooftops etc.True fact, I check on the station nearest to me and it was moved from next to Mobile Bay to a point a mile inland and 90 feet higher after Ivan. Adjust that.
Posted by: toby928 at December 02, 2009 03:56 PM (PD1tk)
I was stationed in Phoenix in the 80's. Bullhead City, AZ., a town along the Colorado River had its thermometer on the front lawn of the local fire station. They moved it out back where it was nothing but desert. Suddenly, Bullhead City became the hottest place in the U.S. most days of the year.

Posted by: Bill R. at December 02, 2009 04:44 PM (EhlQq)

210 I think Middle Earth's rejection of HopeNChangen will bolster India's resolve.

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:44 PM (kKP5O)

211 The issue with them is back-up copies or they decide they have a better
idea on how to do a very straightforward thing and fuck the project
completely up.

I'm a little surprised to learn my home backups are more detailed than those at the East Anglia Climate Research Unit.

Yes, my original documents are shredded, but I have digital encrypted copies in a physical disc and removable media.

In the future, hopefully these Gaia Skull Fuckers will enlist a utility computing organization to back up all their data. For now, back of the unemployment line you liar fucking liars.

Posted by: WTFCI at December 02, 2009 04:44 PM (GtYrq)

212 I didn't say predict. Models also explain.

If you can't predict, then you haven't fully explained.

Posted by: Phinn at December 02, 2009 04:45 PM (6w2q0)

213
Yes, and India is that precarious position of being a neighbor to its mortal enemy, Pakistan. So India probably figures it needs to play along with the U.S.

Posted by: a.k.a. at December 02, 2009 04:46 PM (ohoCZ)

214 India seems to be succumbing to peer pressure - as most of their talk
is fear of sanctions of some sort if they don't go along with the fraud.

The difference is India can't just kill whatever gets in the way. China can. China will. China is.

Posted by: WTFCI at December 02, 2009 04:46 PM (GtYrq)

215 BTW--money, nay--gold bouillion quote from the Crichton piece--file this away for the next time some trumpets the word "consensus" as meaning anything other than "group bullshit":
I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you're being had. Let's be clear: the work of science has nothing whatever to do with consensus. Consensus is the business of politics. Science, on the contrary, requires only one investigator who happens to be right, which means that he or she has results that are verifiable by reference to the real world. In science consensus is irrelevant. What is relevant is reproducible results. The greatest scientists in history are great precisely because they broke with the consensus.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 04:46 PM (B+qrE)

216 Anyone who believes that this data was thrown away to save space needs to give me your email address now. I am very sick and you are my last remaining relative. If only someone would pay the 200 dollar inheritance fee my estate would remain in my family. Please hurry I do not know how much longer I can hold on. cough cough

Posted by: Prince Zambuba, your long lost relative who just died in Narobi with a 200 million dollar inheritanc at December 02, 2009 04:46 PM (SqAkN)

217 And of course the polar bears are disappearing, so we know the Big Truth is really super true!
I seem to recall reading somewhere that the polar bears were the first animal placed on that list not because they were actually endangered but because they were going to become endangered at some future date in time. (Because of global warming!)

Posted by: Bill R. at December 02, 2009 04:48 PM (EhlQq)

218 The data had to go. At some point, someone is going to go and get the
original original parchments or whatever from the station keepers. And
in the immortal words of Little Bill Dagget



Now Phil, them station keeper whores
are going to tell different lies than you. And when their lies ain't
the same as your lies... Well, I ain't gonna take tenure away from some
instrument man. But I'm peer review you. And not gentle like before...
but bad.

Posted by: toby928 at December 02, 2009 04:49 PM (PD1tk)

219 India seems to be succumbing to peer pressure - as most of their talk is fear of sanctions of some sort if they don't go along with the fraud.



Just for future reference. Do the Indian wivesever burn livehusbands by the Ganges river?

Posted by: Hillary Clinton at December 02, 2009 04:49 PM (lBGI2)

220 Who is the left going to isolate and attack on this one?

Posted by: dagny at December 02, 2009 04:49 PM (+DaHq)

221 I just won the British lottery by way of Africa again. What luck.

Posted by: Flavius Julius at December 02, 2009 04:49 PM (kKP5O)

222 because they were going to become endangered at some future date in time.
Since the sun's energy is finite, we can pretty much hang the whole blue marble in that category.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 04:50 PM (B+qrE)

223

All of this AGW science seems to be on the up-and-up to me.

Posted by: Jean-Baptiste Lamarck at December 02, 2009 04:50 PM (7+pP9)

224 Polar bears are disappearing because the big airlines are dropping them from airplanes. It's true I've seen the video.

Posted by: Plain Stupid at December 02, 2009 04:51 PM (ZgvjV)

225 220 Who is the left going to isolate and attack on this one?
George Bush. They already have started to circulate "but Bush hid climate data too!".

Posted by: Mr. Pink at December 02, 2009 04:51 PM (SqAkN)

226
Meredith Baxter is a lesbian?

Posted by: Roughcoat at December 02, 2009 04:54 PM (28MmA)

227 A one-armed man snuck in while I was sleeping and took the data. I swear.

Posted by: Phil "McKracken" Jones at December 02, 2009 04:55 PM (ZgvjV)

228 Dagny, we are all still wrong because we are anti-science.
Few bad apples don't make science a bad thing.
More money, please, and we promise to behave.
Oh, and we're still evil for hating the polar bears, children and trees, even if we've managed to kill fewer than previously thought.

Posted by: Mama AJ at December 02, 2009 04:55 PM (Be4xl)

229 Since the sun's energy is finite, we can pretty much hang the whole blue marble in that category.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 04:50 PM (B+qrE)
Don't forget that big ass meteor on the way. In geological time, it is a certainty. Polar bears won't like that much, I can tell you.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 02, 2009 04:55 PM (dQdrY)

230 So, without the original raw data, how did they make the leap to claiming this is "peer reviewed"? It is impossible to review something without all the information and methods used, being present to review. The really bad part of this is that supposedly intelligent people keep repeating this mantra in the MSM.

Posted by: Bill R. at December 02, 2009 04:56 PM (EhlQq)

231 Does Gaia have big tits?
Otherwise, I don't give a shit...

Posted by: scrood at December 02, 2009 04:56 PM (V9OIi)

232 I thought Meridith Baxter was a man.

Posted by: Phil at December 02, 2009 04:57 PM (ZgvjV)

233 Maybe they meant it was reviewed by a Peer of the Realm. Inbred oafs probably would give it a genteel thumbs up.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at December 02, 2009 04:59 PM (dQdrY)

234 The Left owes Nixon some apologies if erased data is cool now.
If it were only 18 minutes of lost data, I'd be ecstatic.

Posted by: Bill R. at December 02, 2009 05:02 PM (EhlQq)

235 Yup. Big tits but no nipples.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at December 02, 2009 05:04 PM (lBGI2)

236 This post is sponsored by Carbonite.com for all you computer back-up needs

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at December 02, 2009 05:04 PM (IqfKc)

237 y = b0 + b1*PC1 + b2*PC2 + ... + bp*PCp + error

What frightens me most about this equation, well, other than inputing white noise and getting hockey sticks out the other end (someone alert the NHL), is that last term, our good friend Mr. Error. I would be interested to see what sensitivity studies they did to determine which componts are the most important and which can be ignored to see where the error term ranked.

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at December 02, 2009 05:05 PM (1hM1d)

238 Wait...let me guess...they didn't do any sensitivity studies! and they never worried about +error, either!

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at December 02, 2009 05:06 PM (1hM1d)

239
I betcha Gaia really looks like Helen Thomas.

Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

Posted by: Dang Straights at December 02, 2009 05:07 PM (Haq+B)

240 "Mann-Dingo Science Romp" Scene 1: Jenna, Traci, and Meridith peer review each other while Phil does the nature trick on Mike.

Posted by: IPCC Porn Guide p. 17 at December 02, 2009 05:08 PM (ZgvjV)

241 Darth Aggie,
Go read the Crichton piece, specifically the sections on the Drake SETI and TTaps nuclear winter equations. In essence, it's not just the error that is unknown in the warmists calcs--it's every other term as well.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 02, 2009 05:08 PM (B+qrE)

242 What was that phrase that the Left was throwing around last year?

"Reality has a well-known liberal bias"

Wrong again.


Posted by: JayC at December 02, 2009 05:08 PM (8+aAe)

243 That Crichton piece is something else.

Posted by: SarahW at December 02, 2009 05:11 PM (CSrvi)

244 Funny, I don't see elfin magic in the formula.

Posted by: E.L. Fudge at December 02, 2009 05:11 PM (kKP5O)

245 We're storing all of Barry's records too, college transcripts, thesis, birth certificate....

Posted by: phil jones, storage specialist at December 02, 2009 05:12 PM (cniXs)

246 Yup. Big tits but no nipples.

Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at December 02, 2009 05:04 PM (lBGI2)
Les Grands Tetons!

Posted by: stuiec at December 02, 2009 05:14 PM (Ate22)

247 When I say that it's impossible to model (and thus predict) a system of the size and complexity of a planetary climate, I mean impossible.
It's not actually impossible.
It's just practically impossible.
Even if you had enough computing power, you still will always lack infinite precision in your measurements. So given a long enough period of time your model, even with ALL the right formulas and equations, will have started with different initial parameters and eventially diverge greatly.
It isn't the complexity of the system or it's size that makes it impossible but the imperfection of measurements.
Say you have a(random made up example)equation like x = x*(c*y2) where x starts off as5 and c is a constant of .43.
yis a rather precisely measured number of 2.0030
After5 iterations, x = 76.405
After 10 iterations, x = 1,167.545
After 20 iterations, x = 272,632.2
Except y was ACTUALLY 2.003001.
So after5,x SHOULD have been = 76.40881
After 10 iterations, x should have been= 1,167.661
Notice which way the error is moving in relation to the decimal?
After 20 iterations x should = 272,686.6
We were only off .000001 to start with, but now we're wrong by 54 because of it. And growing. And growing faster.
And you can see, Microsoft Excelcan't handle this precision and is decreasing theprecision right ofthe decimal as the number on the left grows, which will lead to more errors with even the corrected run.
No big deal. We needfar greater precision (and more computing power) in a model now, but let's say we have it, and put the more precise numbers in.
Except y was ACTUALLY 2.0030012893
Did I say 2.0030012893?
Sorry, I meant 2.003001289372281630017361.
That, is basically Chaos Theory.
In certain systems, random unpredictable shit will alwayshappen, even though we thought we understood how the system worked,because we don't have infinitely precise measurements to predict with.
Soon enough, those numbers above, one of them starts not just being off but flat out doubling what it ought have been, and then very very quickly once it's done that, quadrupling... uh... octupling..

Posted by: Entropy at December 02, 2009 05:23 PM (IsLT6)

248 245 We're storing all of Barry's records too, college transcripts, thesis, birth certificate....


I don't see why anyone would question their validity.

Posted by: Joseph Smith dumbdumbdumbdumbdumbdumb at December 02, 2009 05:26 PM (DtTM9)

249 This will be is the most awesome scandal of our lifetimes. It's the prism with which to discern who is a sleepwalking, unthinking, dogmatic imbecile, and who might just be a thinking human being.

A great call on Prager yesterday: someone asked if they were a fool for believing in climate change give that the Royal Academy of Science believed in it. Prager responded, "yes, you are a fool"; then "you are a secular fundamentalist; and then, in effect, "how is it that you question science less than I question the Torah?"

Posted by: ParisParamus at December 02, 2009 05:27 PM (aYS5W)

250 I can't get over the awesomeness of Climategate. The sheer pleasure of it actually makes up for the pain of Obama's election & governance.

It's a huge deal-- the seeds of an epochal shift-- considering that any paradigm shift re AGW would involve much more than the depreciation of a mere scientific theory-- but the decline of perhaps the defining, most pervasive, theo-politico-cultural myth, secular religion, of our age (at least of the contemporary West).

One of the things that excites me most about this event & its future repercussions is how it may counteract the left's "march through the institutions," especially the left's stranglehold on education.

As we've seen, alas, even in the face of overwhelming historical evidence, Marxism still retains much of its allure and credibility-- in fact, in academia (at least the humanities), it's pretty much the consensus, established, default political position. Even after knowledge of communism's atrocities, even after the fall of the Soviet Union, so many rationalizations (pathetic & delusional though they might be) were/ are still possible for the progressive to feel smugly justified in his (Badiou-idolizing or Che-tshirt-wearing) neo-Marxism. That's the inescapable conceptual muddiness of the realm of politics & history.

But after Climategate, AGW must face the rigorous, skeptical scrutiny of real scientists-- and I'm much more confident, in the case of natural science than politics, that soon enough the truth (or more precisely the *false*) will out. Anyone with half a brain who understands the import of Climategate has to realize it's quite likely, now, that the scientific tide will turn against AGW. The MSM/ political class may hold out as long as they can, but in the end it's not in their power to stop the discrediting of a scientific theory.

And here's the thing: the segment of the population who's been most intensely indoctrinated, obnoxiously subjected to the AGW religion-- because they are such a captive audience, poor things-- are school children, especially elementary school children. (I bet every single child in the country has had to work on AGW-related projects for school, in multiple classes-- even in art class. And, of course, forced to watch that Nobel Prize winner's Oscar-winning magnum opus.)

So, we're not just talking about adults who'll be "like eight year olds that just found out there's no Santa"-- but about *actual* eight year olds who'll find out (sooner or later) there's no (apocalyptic) AGW, "lied to by those [they] most trusted." They'll see their teachers as-- if not liars-- deeply mistaken, fooled, preaching as settled and irrefutable a view of the world that turns out to be bullshit. And the thing is, AGW is not some discrete theory that's independent and separable from the rest of progressive/leftwing ideology-- it's become so entwined as to constitute one of its roots, pillars, perhaps its central plank (certainly the most transcendent, mystically & politically powerful, encompassing as it does not just human beings but Gaia/nature as a whole). Central to the left/progressive ideology/ world view-- meaning also central to their vision of themselves (qua good, intelligent, scientific) vs their political opponents (evil, stupid, anti-science). This is what has been transmitted to schoolchildren as reality & truth, and once AGW is shaken-- everything else shakes along with it. This may be the impetus for a generation's skeptical awakening.

The fall of AGW-- along with the demystification of Obama & his terrible Carteresque policies-- may well loosen, definitively, the left's grip on the ideological production of knowledge & culture. At least, it will loosen the left's grip on those who've passed through its insidious indoctrination (i.e. school, Hollywood movies, MSM, etc.). One can hope.

Posted by: lael at December 02, 2009 05:30 PM (sPS/J)

251 @250 lael

From your mouth to God's ear, I hope.

Posted by: MikeO at December 02, 2009 05:35 PM (Ce+tv)

252 One excuse beingfloated is that the data isn't really gone, because it was compiled from existing records all over the world, and the records are still there.
Uh huh. Amassing raw data from a myriad of sites into a single location is itself significant "value added." These guys received millions of dollars to compile it. So presumably, it would require millions more to re-compile it.
They threw millions of bucks worth of material into a dumpster because they had no room. For the millions of bucks.
There are entire multi-volume reference encylopedias filled with nothing but numbers, physical values compiled from open scientific literature. Those encyclopedias are very useful when you need one, and generallyfairlyexpensive. The original data in each encyclopedia is still out there in the literature. Feel free to research compile it yourself, if you have ten years to spare. And then a few more years for the nexttype of compilationthat you need. And so on. Don't forget you'll have some travel and mailing expenses becausemany scientific journals areavailable insome locations, but not others.

Posted by: Wm T Sherman at December 02, 2009 05:40 PM (w41GQ)

253 Our cause isn't being helped by conservative like Jonah Golberg who was just on Bec k talking about climaquidick.

Quote: This doesn't mean the theory of AGW is wrong.....blah blah blah...

The message is not getting out. We have people like Jonah who evidently have not kept up with this issue making statements.

Posted by: Vic at December 02, 2009 05:50 PM (CDUiN)

254 >>>Is there a way to reverse engineer the statistical methods they used? Would that be prohibitively difficult?

Starting from just the processed data, yes, it's probably too difficult since it's all been mixed together. However, even though the CRU's raw data has been thrown away, parts of it are undoubtedly still available in the public domain from its original source, so CRU's processing could be spot-checked in those areas to get an idea of what was done to it.

Posted by: Socratease at December 02, 2009 05:53 PM (nJmDs)

255 CRU's processing could be spot-checked in those areas to get an idea of what was done to it.
I don't think they can even do that. My impression was that they don't have a suite of modeling code, version 0.1.3 -> 3.7 or whatever, but rather tweaked the code as they went along. And it's a lot of modules, with no RCS apparently, run against rather unknown versions of the data.

I think that's why they hired the programmer in the harry.readme. Just to try and reconstruct what they did to the old data.

Posted by: toby928 at December 02, 2009 06:00 PM (PD1tk)

256 I don't think Iowahawk has the whole story. He missed the fact that when doing the PCA, they threw out proxy data after 1960
because using it didn't arrive at the desired result. In fact,
it was worse than that, since they grafted different sourced data on in its place.

Posted by: ManeiNeko at December 02, 2009 06:19 PM (KPgt9)

257 Here's the thing: Unfortunately, it's going to take a looooong time for
this scam to die. Why? It's being taught as gospel in schools. I was in
high school in the early '90s and it was being rammed down my throat
full force then, so you can just imagine the damage-- an entire
generation spoon fed this hysteria. I teach college and am forever
subjected to papers freaking out over this crap-- never a one questioning the theory. It's going to take
forever for this to trickle into the schools, if if EVER does.
Academia, after all, still teaches Communism as the way to go. Even
NASA lends credence to it. Hopefully this will be scotched from science
textbooks soon, but I doubt it.

Posted by: Filly at December 02, 2009 06:22 PM (C/yUr)

258 Hopefully this will be scotched from science textbooks soon, but I doubt it.
If the way elementary textbooks treat evolution is any indication, it ain't going nowhere no matter what the scientific community decides on.

Posted by: Entropy at December 02, 2009 06:27 PM (cok/k)

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261 @34: You write that as though it were a bad thing , ace.

Posted by: CoolCzech at December 02, 2009 06:38 PM (QECjC)

262 Has anyone asked just how much data Phil Jones Co had, in Mb? Did they have "gigabytes and gigabytes of data"?

Figuring 150 years * 365days * 4 readings/day, that's 219,000 values per station. or 438,000 bytes (16-bit data).

How many stations did they use? 1000? This looks like 438,000,000 bytes.

Divide by 1,000,000. 438 million bytes. Just under 1/2 gigabyte.

10,000 stations would be 5Gb. Odds are the HD in your (2003) PC is 30GB.

I used magnetic tapes for backup in 1986. The old style magnetic tapes, the ones used on the drives that were always shown in TV shows and movies when a scene needed to show a computer working.

Figuring each tape was about 100Mb and cost $50.00 each in 1986 (this seems high, but I don't remember), what would they have cost in 1992, when CRU needed storage (and a 100Mb hard disk was around $200)?

My guess, based on almost nothing is that
1. CRU had perhaps 500Mb of data (5 tapes, a $250 solution in 1986)

2. Possibly, there were 50 tapes of data

3. Phil Jones and Al Gore desparately want people to spend a lot of time arguing the lack-of-storage explanation, rather than reconstruct the data and cost Al a big pile of money when Tipper makes him get a job, or else.

I think that somewhere there there are some tapes, waiting to have an "18.5GB Gap" mysteriously written to them.

Posted by: Arbalest at December 02, 2009 06:44 PM (7CMP3)

263

In certain systems, random unpredictable shit
will alwayshappen, even though we thought we understood how the system
worked,because we don't have infinitely precise measurements to
predict with.
Soon enough, those numbers above, one of them starts not just being
off but flat out doubling what it ought have been, and then very very
quickly once it's done that, quadrupling... uh... octupling..

Posted by: Entropy at December 02, 2009 05:23 PM (IsLT6)
Ummm . . .

You've got it all wrong there.

Measurements aren't precise. It's the tool used to measure that is precise. You can use the most highly precise tool incorrectly and wind up with inaccurate measurements.

As you are a science guy, I'm astounded that you don't know the difference between precision and accuracy.

Posted by: Tinian at December 02, 2009 06:52 PM (7+pP9)

264
>> When I say that it's impossible to model (and thus predict) a system of the size and complexity of a planetary climate, I mean impossible.
Entropy : It's not actually impossible.
It's just practically impossible.
Even if you had enough computing power, you still will always lack
infinite precision in your measurements. So given a long enough period
of time your model, even with ALL the right formulas and equations,
will have started with different initial parameters and eventially
diverge greatly.
That's certainly a major limitation, but it's not the only one. There's a much larger problem -- the computational limit, arising from the complexity of the system, that simply cannot be overcome.
Let's divide the earth's atmosphere into a series of theoretical zones of some reasonable level of granularity (even though we know that every molecule of atmosphere is its own independent entity). But for the sake of simplicity, let's say that each zone is roughly a kilometer in diameter. Within each of these zones, we'll disregard all variations in various critical properties -- temperature, pressure, particulate concentration, water vapor content, as well as levels of oxygen, CO2 and other gasses. We'll only measure the differences in these properties between two adjacent zones.
We'll measure each of these zones for all of these properties once every hour (even though we know that variations occur in continuous, undifferentiated, real time).

Let's also assume we can get perfect data for all of these zones, all over the earth, going back every hour for 100,000 years.

We'll take these hypothetical measurements once every kilometer, all around the earth, from the surface up to, say, 100 kilometers (until we reach "space"). That's several millions of zones to consider.

Then, we have to start dealing with the complexity problem -- we have to consider that each of these zones interacts with all of its neighbors.

Even if we treat them as cubes, each one has 26 adjacent cubes with which it interacts, in more than one way. Even the ones on the inner-most and outer-most layers have 17 adjacent cubes to interact with.

Also, we have to consider that each of the measured properties affects some of the other measured properties -- colder air can hold less water, for example; particulate concentration interferes with temperature transfer from the sun to the lower atmosphere, etc.

So, not only do we have to account for the interactions between each node and all 26 of its neighbors, but also the effects of each property and substance within each node as to the other properties within that node.
Accounting for and predicting the outcome of those interactions among the millions of zones that we've measured (even if we measured them perfectly, which we can't), presents a combinatorial problem that exceeds the computational capacity of the entire universe.

And, oh, yeah, the whole system is spinning.

And, it's not a closed system, since we also have to include the energy supplied by the sun, which varies.
And every now and then, a volcano will throw a few million tons of particles and gas into the atmosphere.

And, we have to factor in the 1.4 x 10^18 metric tons of water swirling around, and the local variations in its temperature, salinity, pressure, biotic activity, etc.

That's not possible.

And, that's before we have to consider the effects of gasses produced by the life forms on the land and in the water.
But, sure, the science is "settled" that using a particular kind of fucking light bulb is causing the earth to die.

AGW is a fraud. Pure and simple.

Posted by: Phinn at December 02, 2009 08:14 PM (GiUTT)

265 This is how they do it--take raw data and beat it to death. After the CRU data, the most-used dataset is from GISS.
Here's what they do to poor innocent raw data.
http://tinyurl.com/yamntu9

On September 15, 2008, Anthony DePalma of the New York Times wrote an article about the Mohonk Lakes USHCN weather station titled Weather History Offers Insight Into Global Warming. This article claimed, in part, that the average annual temperature has risen 2.7 degrees in 112 years at this station. What struck me about the article was the rather quaint description of the manner in which temperatures are recorded, which I have excerpted here (emphasis mine):

Mr. Huth opened the weather station, a louvered box about the size of a suitcase, and leaned in. He checked the high and low temperatures of the day on a pair of official Weather Service thermometers and then manually reset them If the procedure seems old-fashioned, that is just as it is intended. The temperatures that Mr. Huth recorded that day were the 41,152nd daily readings at this station, each taken exactly the same way. Sometimes it feels like Ive done most of them myself, said Mr. Huth, who is one of only five people to have served as official weather observer at this station since the first reading was taken on Jan. 1, 1896. That extremely limited number of observers greatly enhances the reliability, and therefore the value, of the data. Other weather stations have operated longer, but few match Mohonks consistency and reliability. The quality of their observations is second to none on a number of counts, said Raymond G. OKeefe, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Albany. Theyre very precise, they keep great records and theyve done it for a very long time. Mohonks data stands apart from that of most other cooperative weather observers in other respects as well. The station has never been moved, and the resort, along with the area immediately surrounding the box, has hardly changed over time.

Clearly the data collected at this site is of the highest quality. Five observers committed to their work. No station moves. No equipment changes according to Mr. Huth (in contrast to the NOAA MMS records). Attention to detail unparalleled elsewhere. A truly Norman Rockwell image of dedication.

After reading the article, I wondered what happened to Mr. Huths data, and the data collected by the four observers who preceded him. What I learned is that NOAA doesnt quite trust the data meticulously collected by Mr. Huth and his predecessors. Neither does GISS trust the data NOAA hands it. Following is a description of what is done with the data.

Lets begin with the process of getting the data to NOAA:
From Co-op to NOAA

Mr. Huth and other observers like him record their data in a B91 Form, which is submitted to NOAA every month. These forms can be downloaded for free from the NOAA website. Current B91 forms show the days minimum and maximum temperature as well as the time of observation. Older records often include multiple readings of temperature throughout the day. The months record of daily temperatures is added to each stations historical record of daily temperatures, which can be downloaded from NOAAs FTP site here.

The B91 form for Mohonk Lake is hand-written, and temperatures are recorded in Farenheit. Transcribing the data to the electronic daily record introduces an opportunity for error, but I spot-checked a number of B91 forms converting degrees F to tenths of degree C and found no errors. Kudos to the NOAA transcriptionists.

Next comes the first phase of NOAA adjustments.
NOAA to USHCN (part I) and GHCN

The pristine data from Mohonk Lake are subject to a number of quality control and homogeneity testing and adjustment procedures. First, data is checked against a number of quality control tests, primarily to eliminate gross transcription errors. Next, monthly averages are calculated from the TMIN and TMAX values. This is straightforward when both values exist for all days in a month, but in the case of Mohonk Lake there are a number of months early in the record with several missing TMIN and/or TMAX values. Nevertheless, NOAA seems capable of creating an average temperature for many of those months. The result is referred to as the Areal data.

The Areal data are stored in a file called hcn_doe_mean_data, which can be found here. Even though the daily data files are updated frequently, hcn_doe_mean_data has not been updated in nearly a year. The Areal data also seem to be stored in the GHCN v2.mean file, which can be found here on NOAAs FTP site. This is the case for Mohonk Lake.

Of course, more NOAA adjustments are needed.
USCHN (part II and III)

The Areal data is adjusted for time of observation and stored as a seperate entry in hcn_doe_mean_data. TOB adjustment is briefly described here. Following the TOB adjustment, the series is tested for homogeneity. This procedure evaluates non-climatic discontinuities (artificial changepoints) in a stations temperature caused by random changes to a station such as equipment relocations and changes. The version 2 algorithm looks at up to 40 highly-correlated series from nearby stations. The result of this homogenization is then passed on to FILNET which creates estimates for missing data. The output of FILNET is stored as a seperate entry in hcn_doe_mean_data.

Now GISS wants to use the data, but the NOAA adjustments are not quite what they are looking for. So what do they do? They estimate the NOAA adjustments and back them out!
USHCN and GHCN to GISS

GISS now takes both v2.mean and hcn_doe_mean_data, and lops off any record before 1880. GISS will also look at only the FILNET data from hcn_doe_mean_data. Temperatures in F are converted and scaled to 0.1C.

This is where things get bizarre.

For each of the twelve months in a calendar year, GISS looks at the ten most recent years in common between the two data sets. For each month in those ten most recent years it takes the difference between the FILNET temperature and the v2.mean temperature, and averages them. Then, GISS goes through the entire FILNET record and subtracts the monthly offset from each monthly temperature.

It appears to me that what GISS is attempting to do is remove the corrections done by NOAA from the USHCN data. Standing back to look at the forest through the trees, GISS appears to be trying to recreate the Areal data, failing to recognize that v2.mean is the Areal data, and that hcn_doe_mean_data also contains the Areal data.

Here is a plot of the difference between the monthly raw data from Mohonk Lake and the data GISS creates in GISTEMP STEP0 (yes, I am well aware that in this case it appears the GISS process slightly cools the record). Units on the left are 0.1C.

(see graph at link)

Even supposedly pristine data cannot escape the adjustment process.

Posted by: Flubber at December 02, 2009 08:27 PM (/2m9F)

266 I keep hearing a global warming/climate change song sung by They Might Be Giants, but then I seem to recall they, too are libtards....sigh...

Posted by: ParisParamus at December 02, 2009 08:29 PM (cd0d9)

267 The best part of all this is that Obama is going to fly to Copenhagen personally to double down on stupid.

Posted by: General Stark at December 02, 2009 08:45 PM (tSoJx)

268 asshole

Posted by: Uriel at December 02, 2009 10:01 PM (+F8Li)

269 "Unfortunately reliable time series only go back 100-150 years or so"
The time series is NOT reliable back to 150 years ago. All ANYONE has to do is LOOK AT THE FUCKING THING.
Just look at the first month of the series. It covers less than 16% of the earth's surface, and NOBODY (not even Jones himself) knows where that 16% comes from.
The data is ONLINE in the HADCRUt3 database on the CRU website: WHY? Why will NOBODY EVEN LOOK?

Posted by: Uriel at December 02, 2009 10:03 PM (+F8Li)

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We were told that this all worked so well that the temperatures back one thousand years are known with an accuracy of 0.2C from temperature records. that only recorded to the nearest degree.

Why is all this smoke coming out of my ass?

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