Vicious Circle: As Polls Turn Against Dems, Democrats Drop Out of Races, Republicans Sign Up to Challenge Democrats Who Haven't Seen a Challenger in a Decade

Sweet.

Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman notes a telling indicator that the political environment in 2010 is shaping up to be favorable for Republicans: Several Democratic candidates have decided to drop out of tough races, while Democratic members of Congress who rarely face serious challenges are finding themselves with their toughest re-elections in years.

Over the last week, three Democratic candidates touted by national strategists abruptly withdrew from their races: Solano Beach Councilman Dave Roberts (running against California Rep. Brian Bilbray), state Rep. Todd Book (running against Ohio Rep. Jean Schmidt) and Tennessee Commerce and Insurance Commissioner Paula Flowers (in the seat held by retiring Rep. Zach Wamp).

In a neutral political environment, the seats held by Bilbray, Schmidt, and the open Tennessee seat would be enticing targets for Democrats. Democrats aggressively contested the first two seats in both 2006 and 2008, and experienced unexpected success in Southern open seats over the last two elections.

But in 2010, defense is the name of the game for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is defending several dozens vulnerable freshmen and second-term members, while also protecting veteran members who could find themselves in newfound trouble. It will be a lot more challenging for a first-time candidate running in a tough district to get financial support from the DCCC when the party is worried about defending its own.

Meanwhile, as the article says, Republicans are having a good ol' time recruiting solid candidates to challenge Democrats.

Posted by: Ace at 06:30 PM



Comments

1 Technically, I think it's a virtuous circle.

Posted by: Star Witness at December 01, 2009 06:32 PM (2YS8r)

2 I hope all the "blue dog" Dems are hearing the footsteps

Posted by: nevergiveup at December 01, 2009 06:32 PM (0GFWk)

3 Weakness always attracts predators.

Posted by: stuiec at December 01, 2009 06:32 PM (Ate22)

4 yeah the Dems are gonna run Francine Busby, a clueless lesbian moonbat, again against Bilbray. This will be the third (or fourth, I forget) beating he'll administer to her. I think she likes it

Posted by: Frank G at December 01, 2009 06:33 PM (I+To0)

5 I suppose the way to keep this cycle going is to let the NRCC demonstrate its fundraising prowess, so as to provide the propaganda point that the Republicans can raise a formidable war chest for House campaigns and thus scare off even more Democrats.

Which kind of sucks, because I am still pissed at the NRCC for NY-23.

Posted by: stuiec at December 01, 2009 06:34 PM (Ate22)

6 Wow. Well, I'm sure Republicans will find a way to blow it still.

Posted by: runningrn at December 01, 2009 06:35 PM (vEclT)

7 I bet the RNC, NRCC, and NRSC could use some money...too bad they've proven such poor stewards in the past. Maybe a lack of funds will require them to be creative and run conservative candidates that can actually get votes for a change.

Posted by: mjhlaw at December 01, 2009 06:36 PM (OKbxw)

8 The Democratsare acting stupidly.

Posted by: Barry O at December 01, 2009 06:36 PM (wLgj0)

9 In a neutral political environment, the seats held by Bilbray
I am surprised. The partisan gerrymandering here in CA is so bad that the GOP seats which remain are almost guaranteed Republican. We had one District, CA-4, where the incumbent Republican (John Dolittle) was disgraced and did not seek re-election, the GOP candidate (Tom McClintock) carpetbagged his way 500 miles north to claim the seat, the Democrat candidate (Charlie Brown--yes his real name) did his *best* to pretend to be conservative, and McClintock still won it. I can't see Bilbray losing unless he was caught doing something really awful.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at December 01, 2009 06:37 PM (ujg0T)

10 The good news keeps coming, Huck out of the picture, Dems on their way out, now we just have to hold off the hostile takeover of our healthcare system for another year.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at December 01, 2009 06:37 PM (NgoAe)

11 Uh, it's a feedback loop, but I say.... VIRTUOUS.

Posted by: ParisParamus at December 01, 2009 06:38 PM (I2aaX)

12 OT: is there going to be a liveblog of President Present's Afghan decision tonight?

Posted by: vai2112 at December 01, 2009 06:38 PM (pkOAj)

13 yeah the Dems are gonna run Francine Busby, a clueless lesbian moonbat, again against Bilbray. This will be the third (or fourth, I forget) beating he'll administer to her. I think she likes it
Somewhere in the San Fernando Valley, there has to be a porn filmmaker who would makea movie about a lefty lesbian "Fucked Right And Straight" by a hunky GOP man.
Hey, Moron Movie Productions! Who's with me?

Posted by: Curmudgeon at December 01, 2009 06:39 PM (ujg0T)

14 Bilbray keeps just barely sneaking in, but if he won in the past couple of election cycles then I can't see him losing in a huge GOP year. That race has drawn the most TV ads of any contest out here. I live a couple of Congressional districts over and all I see is ads for that race come election time.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at December 01, 2009 06:40 PM (NgoAe)

15 OT: is there going to be a liveblog of President Present's Afghan decision tonight?
Posted by: vai2112 at December 01, 2009 06:38 PM (pkOAj)

I
l"ll be in the toilet taking care of more important stuff

Posted by: nevergiveup at December 01, 2009 06:40 PM (0GFWk)

16 Republican candidates will still have to get over the hurdle that the democrats have appropriated our taxes for the largest re-election slush fund in history.

The only jobs created or saved will be Democrat pols.

Posted by: The Chewbacca Defense at December 01, 2009 06:41 PM (YMZjg)

17 Posted by: nevergiveup at December 01, 2009 06:40 PM (0GFWk)

Waaaaay to much information there. lol

Posted by: vai2112 at December 01, 2009 06:42 PM (pkOAj)

18 Has anyone consulted Allahpundit yet on why this is a disturbing trend and bad for the Republican Party?
Also, how is this good for David Frum?

Posted by: Squishy RINO in San Diego at December 01, 2009 06:42 PM (H7Rlw)

19 Waaaaay to much information there. lol
Posted by: vai2112 at December 01, 2009 06:42 PM (pkOAj)

I just call em as I see em

Posted by: nevergiveup at December 01, 2009 06:43 PM (0GFWk)

20 Somewhere in the San Fernando Valley, there has
to be a porn filmmaker who would makea movie about a lefty lesbian
"Fucked Right And Straight" by a hunky GOP man.

Hey, Moron Movie Productions! Who's with me?


Posted by: Curmudgeon at December 01, 2009 06:39 PM (ujg0T)
Isn't the point of porn to give shape to a desirable fantasy? I am not sure I would want a lefty lesbian in my fantasy... not based on the ones with whom I am familiar. But to each his own, I suppose.

Posted by: stuiec at December 01, 2009 06:44 PM (Ate22)

21 I am praying that the Republicans don't screw this up by supporting more AGW/Tax and Spend/Amnesty/etc liberal RINOs in the primaries.

Posted by: Vic at December 01, 2009 06:44 PM (CDUiN)

22 Wow. Well, I'm sure Republicans will find a way to blow it still.
That was my first reaction as well but then again, 2010 is only 30 days away. If the Republicans can keep their fucking mouths shut for at least a little while, the Dems may hang themselves but for good.

Posted by: Alex's Cabin at December 01, 2009 06:45 PM (LWRpx)

23 How can this be? I thought after the election of the messiah that Republicans were vanquished forever. Just his presence alone would assure the Dims of decades of unending triumphs.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at December 01, 2009 06:46 PM (7+7Tj)

24
in b4 the Romney bashing!

Posted by: a.k.a. at December 01, 2009 06:47 PM (PtVrV)

25 Big deal. The undead and cartoon characters overwhelmingly vote Democrat and we've got those blocks locked up.

Posted by: ACORN at December 01, 2009 06:48 PM (DtTM9)

26 This is great news!

Now, let's retake Congress, and spend some money on our pork projects for a change!

GOP! GOP! GOP!

Posted by: Trent Lott at December 01, 2009 06:51 PM (MT+0i)

27 I don't know anyone who voted for John McCain.

Posted by: Pauline Kael at December 01, 2009 06:55 PM (DtTM9)

28 I voted for Sarah. The old bastard happened to be on the ticket.

Posted by: Limo Driver at December 01, 2009 07:07 PM (mwn2O)

29 hope these guys get better peer-reviews than Scuzzava.

Posted by: Blackford Oakes at December 01, 2009 07:12 PM (DtTM9)

30 Off topic, but Politico has a somewhat critical artical of the President and the use of his Teleprompter (a timely subject).
"Obama's much publicized usage has both provided a wealth of advertising and added besmirchment of the speaking aid as a crutch...Steve Carofalo, general manager at a NY based prompter company says corporate clients are moving away from using 'presidential style' prompting in the late 90's when the stigmatizing began. For that crowd, Obama's use and ensuing conversation around it have further discouraged it."
Heh! Here's the link: http://tinyurl.com/ygj9bem

Posted by: runningrn at December 01, 2009 07:19 PM (vEclT)

31 Ooh, way o/t again, but this is kind of big news if true:

Gawker hears Rush Limbaugh has set the date for his fourth marriage appropriately enough, it is the Fourth of July!

The location has not been disclosed.

Limbaugh, who will marry Kathryn Kate Rogers, loves the holidays: his last wedding was on Memorial Day, 1994. Prior to that, his second wife left him on Christmas.

Posted by: runningrn at December 01, 2009 07:25 PM (vEclT)

32 One thing Republicans need to remember, do not go RINO. Get the Conservative message out. Attack, Attack, Attack. use their own tactics against them. they are now on the defensive. Don't be nice and pander to them. They need to defend the indefensable, Obama!!!

Posted by: mystry at December 01, 2009 07:25 PM (kmgIE)

33 Here's ONE REASON why DEMOCRATS are gonna get their CLOCK CLEANED in the Mid-Term Elections next year

Posted by: newser at December 01, 2009 07:32 PM (OBUuM)

34 I am praying that the Republicans don't screw this up by supporting more AGW/Tax and Spend/Amnesty/etc liberal RINOs in the primaries.
Vic, I don't always agree with you but on this one, I do. And I think after the Crist debacle, the RNC is going to stay out of primaries, as they should. However, let us be fair. If the RINO wins a fair primary, the RINO wins and gets the support. Why - because I want the House and Senate (or atleast 1) to go Republican so some meaningful investigations into things like climategate or where the hell all the spendulus money went. Yea, I know, Olympia Snowe is a pain in the ass. But, if that is the trade-off I have to make to give Sen. Inahoe subpoena power to investigate AGW, then its a deal with the devil you have to make.

Posted by: Mallamutt at December 01, 2009 07:38 PM (V9SYy)

35

I guess the radical bullshit politics of the inner cities across the USA don't quite work well on a national scale.

A built in boundary for the Cult of Barry.

I kinda like that. Those assholes show themselves on a national scale and don't benefit.

I mean, how stupid can a party be that sends out a scumbag like Barney Frank to win friends and influence people.

They are fascists right out of the good ole USSR.

Posted by: Rev. Dr. E. Buzz Miller at December 01, 2009 07:44 PM (CHf6r)

36 36,
The danger of having a Potemkin Village slinging media in your pocket as a party is when you believe that the one inch facade on the mud huts really are palatial resorts...
The M$M is not doing the donks any favors, and in fact have not been on a long timeline since '96....
Barry and buds are gonna walk into the 2*4 of love when they start hurting too many people's lifestyles with their death cult's fetishes like crap'n'tax and UHC

Posted by: sven10077 at December 01, 2009 07:52 PM (dCpk3)

37 The place to hunt those RINOs would be in Illinois, where capntr8or Mark Kirk is gunning for the Senate. The RNC loves the guy because they see him as "electable".

In 2010, even in IL, the Republicans can do better.

Posted by: Zimriel at December 01, 2009 07:58 PM (IJMBR)

38 But "top conservative bloggers" Sullivan and Johnson have rejected the racist teabagger Talibanvelical party, so that means death for us in 2010. I read that on HuffPo, so it must be true.

Posted by: stace at December 01, 2009 08:02 PM (g/wgk)

39 Sarah Palin is showing how many campaign rallies she could do in a month, and the kinds of crowds she can draw. She'll do it for "Common Sense Conservatives" in 2010. If the GOP will run with those people they can avoid a CF like in New York 23. They could at least take back enough Senate seats to regain the filibuster, and make a serious dent in the House majority, enough to have meaningful influence. It could be enough to stop Obama.

Posted by: obama is a traitor at December 01, 2009 08:02 PM (Qt4Y7)

40 Talleebon....I cringe when I hear him say that :-)
Talleebon

Posted by: Bosk at December 01, 2009 08:05 PM (pUO5u)

41 Don't forget downballot races. City councils to state assemblies. This is the redistricting election in most states.

Posted by: AmishDude at December 01, 2009 08:12 PM (sYHXZ)

42 38

Obama's former district is beholden to ethanol subsidies. Any candidate is going to come out in favor of it, if he wants to be competitive. Kirk is nobody I would vote for, but he might be the rare RINO who is worth the compromise. Maine has no excuse.

Posted by: Bernardine Dohrn, who babysat POTUS' brats at December 01, 2009 08:16 PM (vn+LB)

43 I keep telling Dede to relocate to California. She'll get more of the vote then that cracker Bilbray. Move Dede move.

Posted by: Michael Steele at the spa at December 01, 2009 08:38 PM (EL+OC)

44 This kind of thing keeps up Sullivan and Johnson are going to look extra jackassey. It will be hilarious watching squishes like David Brooks and Christopher Buckley fall all over themselves showing how conservative they are if the GOP wins big, without even realizing the Republican party isn't conservative. I feel old all over.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at December 01, 2009 08:47 PM (PQY7w)

45 KS only Dem Congressman - Rep Dennis Moore - announced he won't be running again. The announcement caught both sides by surprise. The Dems certainly don't have anyone lined up because they were focusing elsewhere. He represents the bluest area of Kansas - Lawrence and the KC area. Moore was the first Dem to hold the position.

Posted by: Jeffro at December 01, 2009 08:51 PM (QuvHG)

46 41 Talleebon....I cringe when I hear him say that :-)
Talleebon
What's the big deal?

Posted by: Pockiston at December 01, 2009 09:10 PM (DtTM9)

47 Lt.Reid, what are all those rats jumping off the ship for?

Posted by: Capt. Nancy at December 01, 2009 09:35 PM (ktKOD)

48 This reinforces that HuffPost piece I linked earlier about a poll showing democrat turnout will be way down and Republican turnout way up.

Who wants to sign up for a beating?

Posted by: Purple Avenger at December 01, 2009 09:53 PM (DJOpk)

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Posted by: jason at December 01, 2009 10:25 PM (CXrQF)

50 Count Tennessee's 3rd Congressional District as a plus one for conservatives if Robin Smith takes the seat. Wamp has been a career Baconator RINO purchasing votes with sacks of pork for the Oak Ridge DOE complex. Smith is an AoS conservative in the same mold as another outstanding TN rep, Marsha Blackburn. It's a shame that in TN we are left with only women to "man-up" these days.

Posted by: Malcolm Tent at December 01, 2009 10:32 PM (0YJui)

51 Who here thinks a big win by Republicans helps us at all, though? They'll all say "see, by becoming more like Democrats we won big!" and pat themselves on the back.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at December 01, 2009 10:47 PM (PQY7w)

52 Snoopy Dance!

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Posted by: reviewups at December 02, 2009 02:35 AM (fZN4w)

54 I blame it all on NY23. That election showed that the RNC, RNCC all the DC squishs could be beaten by Americans.
I'd use Gov Palin as an indicator of who to send money to and forget about the DC GOP assholes....

Posted by: Serfer62 at December 02, 2009 12:35 PM (HLCnI)

55 Republicans are having a good ol' time recruiting solid candidates to challenge Democrats.

Thank you, President Obama!!!

Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at December 02, 2009 12:46 PM (jV9DU)

56 Dennis Kucinich is my congressman.


Okay - now that you have stopped laughing. Will someone good please run against him?

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