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Polls, Polls, Polls: Rasmussen Says in Hypoethetical Three-Way Match-Up, Independent Lou Dobbs Throws Race to Obama; Obama Continues Falling

Confirmation of Allah's theory -- theory? common sense, I'd call it -- that an independent bid that draws from the right will put Obama back in office from 2013 to 2017. He quotes Groundskeeper Willie: I warned ye.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that if the choice is between President Obama, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Dobbs, Obama leads 42% to 34% with Dobbs pulling 14% of the vote.

With Mike Huckabee as the Republican nominee, Obama leads 42% to 36%, with Dobbs at 12%.

If Sarah Palin is the GOP nominee, it’s Obama 44%, Palin 37% and Dobbs 12%…

With Dobbs out of the equation, Obama and Romney are tied at 44%, Obama leads Huckabee 45% to 41%, and the president leads Palin 46% to 43%.

Note how close Palin is. Actually, everyone's close (and I imagine Pawlenty and other lesser-known, unpolled names would fare just as well), but it's a bit of good Thanksgiving news for the Palinistas that she's only behind Captain Wonderful by 3 points.

Assuming no third-party bid, I mean.

In other poll news: Yesterday Obama logged his lowest level of support yet in Rassmussen -- 45% support, 55% opposition. That changes slightly today -- 46% to 54% -- meaning that Obama's new normal is the mid-forties, and 40% his likely new bottom.

And, as they say, 40 is the new 30. (Well, I say that. Actually I say 40 is new 26 but no one will believe me.) The rest of the news is bad too:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 26% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -15. This is the second straight day at -15, the lowest Approval Index rating yet measured for President Obama (see trends).

Seventy-four percent (74%) of African-Americans Strongly Approve along with just 19% of white voters (see other recent demographic highlights from the tracking poll).

Among all voters, just 34% now give the President good or excellent marks on his handling of the economy while 47% say he is doing a poor job in that arena. On national security issues, 42% say good or excellent while 41% say poor.
Sixty-three percent (63%) of voters believe that political correctness kept the military from preventing the Fort Hood shootings.

61% of independents now disapprove of Obama. 61%. That's some serious stuff right there. 38% approve, which is not exactly awful, but it's certainly not good.

Not a poll but a forecast: 2012 is projected to have a very bad unemployment rate of 7.5%.

The unemployment rate will remain elevated for years to come, according to a forecast released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve that addresses for the first time economic conditions at the time of the next presidential election.

It paints a grim picture. Top Fed officials expect the unemployment rate to remain in the 6.8 to 7.5 percent range at the end of 2012 and said it could take “about five or six years” from now for economic activity to return to normal. The jobless rate was 10.2 percent in October. …

The math is simple: The U.S. economy is capable of growing at roughly 2.5 to 3 percent a year, thanks to population growth and technological improvement, and needs to grow faster than that to create large numbers of jobs and significantly improved standards of living.

Following the last recession of comparable depth for example, in 1981-82, gross domestic product growth averaged a 7.8 percent annual rate for four quarters.

In this recession, by contrast, the five current Fed governors and 12 presidents of regional Fed banks expect growth of 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2010 — which would be enough to bring the unemployment rate down only slightly.

But that's not necessarily doom for Obama. Bear in mind, by that point, people will have adjusted to 10-11% unemployment (17-20% real unemployment) as the new normal. Any improvement from there will be welcome -- and Obama will get the odd "credit" of getting us an unemployment rate of "only" 7.5%. Yes, Obama will be rewarded for his own incompetence, the same he's been his whole life.

He will be vulnerable in this scenario, but hardly doomed. Bear in mind, although the economy was growing in 1996, it wasn't nearly firing on all cylinders, and was still weak-ish. And yet, simply for having a growing economy -- not a barnburner, as we'd later see in 1998-1999 -- Clinton was considered well-nigh undefeatable in 1996.

I gotta be honest: I didn't even vote. It was clear to me fairly early in the season that Clinton's growing, but not hardy, economy was good enough to almost guarantee him a victory in 1996.

We didn't make much of a case for ourselves with Bob Dole, but he was a small factor. As they say, the election was a referendum on the incumbent, primarily, and with a bit of economic growth, people decided they'd stick with what was working.

No one will be happy with a 7-8% unemployment rate. But given an easing of the 11% unemployment rate -- and who knows, maybe it will get up to 12% -- people will be at least appeased. And Obama will have the media crowing about the "economic miracle" of Obama delivering us an economy that hearkens back to the days of bread and honey of the Ford Administration.

Vulnerable in 2012, yes. But we will need a strong candidate, and yes, we will need a lot of those hated moderates and independents people are always telling me apparently don't count in electoral politics. Not saying we need to sell-out to them, but we will need them on board.

Posted by: Ace at 05:23 PM



Comments

1 The 7-8% thing assumes everything stays the same. The implied tax increase of a 1.5 trillion deficit each year until 2012 isn't a pretty picture. The bill is gonna come due. Since you can't cut spending, you have to raise taxes. They are going to have to, there is no way around it.

For the short term, why would any business hire someone? Till you know the outcome of the big items on the table in DC that directly affect each employees cost, there is no reason to hire anyone. Does anyone expect this to change?

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 25, 2009 05:28 PM (IhQuA)

2 I have Obama over a steaming pile of dog shit by 46-41, but he makes the pile his Vice President in an 'Unprecedented' move. And he bows to it.

Posted by: t-bird at November 25, 2009 05:29 PM (FcR7P)

3 I knew Ace posted this by the quality of the tag-work. 

Well played, sir.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at November 25, 2009 05:29 PM (UBQGM)

4

National polls are instructive as to trends - but for a Presidential elections, don't matter as much as the state polls. Thus, if Dobbs gets in, I suspect it creates an electoral college blow out for Obama. Why, cause I suspect he draws better in Red States and would pull enough votes to allow Obama to win a few traditionally Red States like Virginia and Arizona that the Republican would probably win without Dobbs. Yea, I know, Obama won Virginia last year, but its an illustration - he is going to have a harder time in Virginia in 2012 than he did in 2008.

Of course, 2012 is 3 years away, which is an eternity in politics. Still.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 25, 2009 05:30 PM (V9SYy)

5 Um, if we have a complete outsider like Palin as the Republican nominee (or for sake of argument the guy who originally had the tea party meltdown), what's the likelihood of a third party run from the right?

That's probably a fair question to ask in the case of any of the governors, as I think about it.  I only see a run from the right if the nominee is, say, Lindsay Graham-someone from inside the Beltway who is not trusted in the rest of the country.

Posted by: Methos at November 25, 2009 05:31 PM (CoDwG)

6 My fear is another republican revolution in 2010 will balance the budget and afford Obama the opportunity to take full credit for being fiscally responsible.

Posted by: 2549 at November 25, 2009 05:31 PM (WYkJI)

7 It's just one, big, red, link! Cool!

Posted by: Bosk at November 25, 2009 05:31 PM (pUO5u)

8 Okay, I have to ask.  Who besides Birthers and some other kooks, even consider Dobbs as a viable candidate? 

Posted by: Deanna at November 25, 2009 05:32 PM (gxuV2)

9 I'd put as much faith in the electoral projections at this point as I would the economic ones.

Posted by: nickless at November 25, 2009 05:32 PM (MMC8r)

10

Who besides Birthers and some other kooks, even consider Dobbs as a viable candidate? 

If illegal immigration is a big issue to you, and the GOP roles out another McCain, there is the issue that drives voters to Dobbs.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 25, 2009 05:34 PM (V9SYy)

11 Good God, are we going to have to pull a Michael Moore and get on our hopefully-less-obese knees and beg a prominent third partier not to run a la Nader?

I'd actually be okay with that.  Seriously.  Even if our candidate ends up being Phuckabee or Romney.  House and Senate is where it's at - if we can get/maintain control of that, we're okay with a RINO in the big chair.  Think Pelosi, people.  She's running the show right now, more than some care to admit.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 25, 2009 05:35 PM (Ei3oZ)

12

Okay, I have to ask.  Who besides Birthers and some other kooks, even consider Dobbs as a viable candidate? 

We do! We do!

Posted by: Former Perot Voters at November 25, 2009 05:35 PM (ujg0T)

13 I wouldn't get hung up on those economic numbers.  I'm pretty sure they didn't factor in a shutdown of the Persian Gulf, following whatever nastiness we know is coming between Israel and Iran.  Or any of the other growing ripples of Obumble's foreign policy genius.

Posted by: Methos at November 25, 2009 05:36 PM (CoDwG)

14 A high-profile third party conservative always draws more support than a high-profile liberal third party.  Look at Ralph Nader's numbers.  He is always below 10%.  Look at Ross Perot's numbers during his first run.  His canidacy gave us Bill Clinton.  I'm proud to say I was living in the only state where Bill came in third in '92 (Utah).

Posted by: GrimJack at November 25, 2009 05:37 PM (iTA1p)

15 The unemployment rate will remain elevated for years to come, according to a forecast released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve

Yes, unemployment will be high until we get some responsible adults to take over Congress and the White House.  Until then we are fucked.

Posted by: gau at November 25, 2009 05:37 PM (n1uMU)

16

Good God, are we going to have to pull a Michael Moore and get on our hopefully-less-obese knees and beg a prominent third partier not to run a la Nader?

How about walling off the southern border, being a little more prudent about who we let into this country, and be a little less goo-goo for globalism when all it does is build up what will probably be our next big adversary unless the muzzie savages outbreed us all?

Just a thought....

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 05:38 PM (ujg0T)

17 I'm still focusing on 2010.  This stuff is astounding to me.  First, Obama is always more popular than his policies.  If people like Obama, it doesn't mean they'll support his party.  Indeed, people will feel free to take out his failure on Congress.  Second, with his support mainly being buoyed by African-American support (who would support a white Democrat with the same numbers, but much less enthusiasm) I would expect a lot of them not to show up, not to volunteer, etc.  Third, some reliably Democrat districts without a large black population are probably already leaning GOP.

As for 2012, I think it depends a lot more on psychology as to whether the American people will pity Obama into a second term.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 25, 2009 05:39 PM (T0NGe)

18

 

The most important thing is to get back both houses commandingly and with the most conservative candidates possible. To keep whatever we end up with in check. The government works best when it can't legislate.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 05:40 PM (AoS9J)

19 One other factor to consider is that 2012 will be a referendum on Obama. In 2008, McCain was the functional incumbent because he was the Republican when a Republican was President. Undecides tend to break 3 to 2 for the challenger. The key number is, if we are sitting here in October of 2012 and Obama is still at the 44 or 45 percent he is very vulnerable and can be beat.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 25, 2009 05:40 PM (V9SYy)

20 I hate it when people bash 3rd party candidates.
It's a free country.
If Dobbs wants to run, so be it.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at November 25, 2009 05:41 PM (O/ezx)

21
Property and Plunder

Man can live and satisfy his wants only by ceaseless labor; by the ceaseless application of his faculties to natural resources. This process is the origin of property.

But it is also true that a man may live and satisfy his wants by seizing and consuming the products of the labor of others. This process is the origin of plunder.

.

.

When, then, does plunder stop? It stops when it becomes more painful and more dangerous than labor.

.

.

But, generally, the law is made by one man or one class of men. And since law cannot operate without the sanction and support of a dominating force, this force must be entrusted to those who make the laws.

This fact, combined with the fatal tendency that exists in the heart of man to satisfy his wants with the least possible effort, explains the almost universal perversion of the law. Thus it is easy to understand how law, instead of checking injustice, becomes the invincible weapon of injustice. It is easy to understand why the law is used by the legislator to destroy in varying degrees among the rest of the people, their personal independence by slavery, their liberty by oppression, and their property by plunder. This is done for the benefit of the person who makes the law, and in proportion to the power that he holds.

Posted by: Frederic Bastiat at November 25, 2009 05:42 PM (eA3tl)

22 Speculations about 2012 are meaningless until we know how the elections of 2010 come out.  Will Obama be able to campaign against a GOP House?  Or will he essentially have to take <gasp> responsibility for the disasters he has caused?  We don't know.

Posted by: gau at November 25, 2009 05:42 PM (n1uMU)

23

Bring 'em on,, I'll have ACORN and the black panthers countin' the fraud,, uh,, I mean votes

 

 

OsamaHusseinIslamObama 2012'

(the terrorist-Uighur-ACORN-media choice)

-It's never too early to campaign-

Posted by: Barry Soetoro (D-King OF The World!!) at November 25, 2009 05:42 PM (KD9b7)

24 Polling data on an election 3 years out is just plain silly, nobody knows what will happen in that time. Did polls in Nov 2005 predict Obama would win?

Posted by: Fred R. at November 25, 2009 05:42 PM (wLgj0)

25 So please, no third party candidates. Please. Please. With the possible exception of Nader or ManBearPig on the Green Suicide ticket.

For the short term, why would any business hire someone? Till you know the outcome of the big items on the table in DC that directly affect each employees cost, there is no reason to hire anyone.

Many of our Credentialed And Reputable Economic Pundits seem to be blithely ignoring the effects of tax hikes on small business coming in 2012, just from the expiration of Bush's cuts alone (never mind Obastard's inevitable new taxes). What business owner will be doing so well by then that he can absorb the expense of new employees as well as higher taxes on his profit?

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 05:42 PM (AZGON)

26

Will Obama be able to campaign against a GOP House? 

Wait, the Democrats control the House - really. Did not know that.

Posted by: MSM at November 25, 2009 05:43 PM (V9SYy)

27 I'd like to see a Sarah Palin--Brit Hume ticket.  I'd also like to see Carrie Keagan bouncing up and down in my lap.

Posted by: Chef Boy RD (rdb) at November 25, 2009 05:43 PM (1a8lY)

28

 

I hate it when people bash 3rd party candidates.
It's a free country.
If Dobbs wants to run, so be it.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at November 25, 2009 05:41 PM (O/ezx)

 

Yea, reality sucks don't it ? If Dobbs runs on 3p/t, say hello to Obama again.

 

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 05:44 PM (AoS9J)

29 Did we decide what we call it (the "MSM") now?  I vote for LWM ("left-wing media").

Posted by: Chef Boy RD (rdb) at November 25, 2009 05:44 PM (1a8lY)

30

How about walling off the southern border, being a little more prudent about who we let into this country, and be a little less goo-goo for globalism when all it does is build up what will probably be our next big adversary unless the muzzie savages outbreed us all?

Just a thought....

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 05:38 PM (ujg0T)

Completely beside the point - the issue is an independent running that would split the red vote.  DO NOT WANT.  Both the official nominee and the 'independent' could want what you listed above, and we still have a problem.

I'm in a state where my primary vote doesn't matter - by the time it hits Ohio, the choice is already made...unless we end up in some strange situation like the Dems did last year where Ohio was still an issue for them re: official nominee.  So I always stand by the nominee because I refuse to throw my vote away.  I care more about the local stuff these days, because those are the people who will be responsible for stopping some of this crap as they make their way to the House and Senate.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 25, 2009 05:44 PM (Ei3oZ)

31

I hate it when people bash 3rd party candidates.
It's a free country.
If Dobbs wants to run, so be it.

I only bash them because (1) they are exercises in cult politics, built around a wacky leader (2) when they do have valid issues, these get co-opted by one of the two main parties.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 05:44 PM (ujg0T)

32 No way Gore runs 3rd party, he is too far up the ass of the Democrat party.  They can make him the first "Carbon Billionaire" or make him just another con man asshole in prison.

Posted by: gau at November 25, 2009 05:45 PM (n1uMU)

33

Wait, the Democrats control the House - really. Did not know that.

Posted by: MSM at November 25, 2009 05:43 PM (V9SYy)

Nobody tells me anything!

Posted by: Chuckles (the clown) Gibson at November 25, 2009 05:45 PM (T0NGe)

34 27 I'd like to see a Sarah Palin--Brit Hume ticket.  I'd also like to see Carrie Keagan bouncing up and down in my lap.

Posted by: Chef Boy RD (rdb) at November 25, 2009 05:43 PM (1a8lY)

They She looked great in that red dress the night before last.

Posted by: conscious, but incoherent at November 25, 2009 05:46 PM (Vu6sl)

35

The most important thing is to get back both houses commandingly and with the most conservative candidates possible. To keep whatever we end up with in check. The government works best when it can't legislate.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 05:40 PM (AoS9J)

THIS times 3.2 trillion.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 25, 2009 05:46 PM (Ei3oZ)

36

Polling data on an election 3 years out is just plain silly, nobody knows what will happen in that time. Did polls in Nov 2005 predict Obama would win?

No, but it has some bearing on 2010. If Obama's numbers are down, then the large donors (think industry PACs) may start to think he and Democrats are not invicible and, conversely, start spreading the money around to Republicans running for Congress just to hedge their bets. The GOP had massive fundraising advantages in 2004 and 2002. However, when Bush's numbers started to tank (in 2005) and the generic ballot started to tank, the Democrats were able to not only erase the GOP's fundraising lead but actually outraise them. So, while not predictive of who will win in 2012, it is instructive on a national trend.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 25, 2009 05:46 PM (V9SYy)

37

Completely beside the point - the issue is an independent running that would split the red vote.  DO NOT WANT.  Both the official nominee and the 'independent' could want what you listed above, and we still have a problem.

The problem is, the official GOP nominee in the last presidential election, and the last three for that matter, *didn't* want what was listed. Which is far from being "beside the point", isn't it?

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 05:46 PM (ujg0T)

38
In a three way vaseline covered match-up between Barry Obama,Chriss Matthews and Shep Smith, Anderson Cooper complained that he wasn't invited. Barney Frank said he had never heard of vaseline because he had never worked in an oil field. Keith Olberman just pissed his pants.

Posted by: Katie Couric's colon at November 25, 2009 05:47 PM (Oxen1)

39 I'd like to a Palin/Bolton ticket.  The Bolton vs Biden debate, two men enter, one mustache leaves.

Posted by: gau at November 25, 2009 05:47 PM (n1uMU)

40 Don't get me wrong, I would be pissed if Dobbs went 3rd party, but I do not have the right to say that he can't.

Everyone brings up the specter of Perot.  The way I see it, if Bush Sr. was not such a fucking weak candidate then Perot would have not even been an issue.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at November 25, 2009 05:47 PM (O/ezx)

41

Did we decide what we call it (the "MSM") now?  I vote for LWM ("left-wing media").

DSM / DemSM and LSM / LameSM also work...

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 05:48 PM (ujg0T)

42 The government works best when it can't legislate.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 05:40 PM (AoS9J)

For an old fuck, you're pretty smart.  Well said, Methuselah.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at November 25, 2009 05:50 PM (UBQGM)

43 A high-profile third party conservative always draws more support than a high-profile liberal third party.

Because Democrats represent the left to within a Nader Unit of perfection, and Republicans don't do shit for any significant faction of the right, so "their" voters bolt at the slightest hope. And they're something like half of everybody.

Posted by: oblig. at November 25, 2009 05:50 PM (rQ95J)

44

The way I see it, if Bush Sr. was not such a fucking weak candidate then Perot would have not even been an issue.

That is undeinably correct. And *why* was Bush the Elder so weak?

1. Caving into a tax increase 

2. Caving into a continuation of the racial/ethnic spoils system

Will the GOP learn? Assume this Dobbs campaign is real. All they have to do is co-opt Dobbs' two issues: immigration and trade policy (and the latter just a *little*; I don't think the Dobbsians care about Colombia as much as they care about China), and Dobbs folds up.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 05:51 PM (ujg0T)

45

Me, to Dobbs:

"Good GOD, Man!!!!  Do ye wanta get SUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUED???"

Posted by: Groundskeeper Willie at November 25, 2009 05:52 PM (7M8Py)

46 What happens if it is a four way race?

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at November 25, 2009 05:52 PM (dQdrY)

47

Since when has Allah's analysis been worth a tinker's damn?

Yeah, if the Republicans would just nominate and run an avowed atheist or Meghan McCain, I bet they would so totally, like, scoop up the independent voters too!

If I were the GOP I'd start worrying about keeping my base from STARTING a third party. I have no problem setting fire to the Republican drapes these days if they want to hand me another McCain.

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at November 25, 2009 05:54 PM (H7Rlw)

48 Rasmussen Says in Hypoethetical Three-Way Match-Up,

Heh. I'd like a three-way matchup with me, Sarah Palin, and Michelle Bachman, IYKWIMAITYD.

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 25, 2009 05:55 PM (hoowK)

49 The future viability of this nation, as a whole, is going to be determined long before 2012. We are looking at credit crisis 2.0 barreling down the road (just imagine what is going to happen to real estate prices when the Fed runs out of steam and has to start letting interest rates rise - just to name one eventuality of many that will have the same effect) and it will not go as the first crisis did. We bought time on the last go round, but we have nothing left to purchase time with, and now, most of the liabilities have been moved to the federal treasury instead of staying in the private sector where they belonged and where they didn't threaten the dollar directly.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 05:55 PM (A46hP)

50 Captain Wonderful = Dr. Utopia

Posted by: Ichiro Suzuki at November 25, 2009 05:56 PM (P/q7X)

51 One other factor to consider when His Emptiness runs for re-coronation:

Nobody's gonna buy the post-racial shit.  And we'll already have had a 'black President,' we don't need a double-dose.

Posted by: nickless at November 25, 2009 05:57 PM (MMC8r)

52

Having lived through the '90s and having lived through this debacle (in fact, having lived through the '70s, '80s, and '90s) my own gut tells me people are more anxious and angry than at any time in my life. If the current population's memory is half as long as my grandparents, who were young and early middle aged adults during the Great Depression, they won't soon forget how bad Obama is in just 3 years.  (My grandfather never put a dollar in a bank again after 1929 - he kept it all buried under the house).

Yeah, things weren't great in '96.  They weren't great in '00 either. But at the time, it felt like Coke and Pepsi. Or maybe Coke and Sprite.  I detest Sprite and find it to be a waste of calories, but I don't think it's actually going to kill me. 

The last time I remember feeling this hopeless was '79 - '80, and even then I didn't think Carter was actively trying to kill me.  The tightness in my chest (and the vomiting and diarrea) isn't going away any time soon.

Beginning June 1, 2010, I expect the RNC to start running the "It's morning in America" commercial 24/7.  And for Dobbs to run as a Republican and duke it out in the primary like everybody else.  I call BS on third parties as well - I think candidates need to duke it out in one arena, not take their toys and go to a different playground.

My vote: Romney (or Mitch Daniels, Gov. of Indiana) - Petreus '10.

Posted by: the other coyote at November 25, 2009 05:58 PM (yK44T)

53

That is undeinably correct. And *why* was Bush the Elder so weak?

1. Caving into a tax increase 

2. Caving into a continuation of the racial/ethnic spoils system

And trying to re-invent the wheel:  Ignoring the fact that Reagan handed him the playbook.

Posted by: Chef Boy RD (rdb) at November 25, 2009 05:59 PM (1a8lY)

54

The most important thing is to get back both houses commandingly and with the most conservative candidates possible. To keep whatever we end up with in check. The government works best when it can't legislate.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 05:40 PM (AoS9J)

 

Just perfectly well said.

Posted by: Max Power is getting thirsty at November 25, 2009 05:59 PM (q177U)

55 Even my wife, a recovering liberal, thinks Barry won't make it to a second term... but as I point out, you can't fight something with nothing. With such a weak bench for Pubbies as of 2010 (Palin notwithstanding) it still looks like a cakewalk for Earflaps McBaritone. Especially if Dobbs pisses in the punchbowl.

While I love how Palin utterly unhinges the leftards, we have to take her at her word for the present when she says she won't run in 2012.

Of course, three years is an eternity in politics. However stop and consider how the DemSM will cheerlead for Obastard in 2012. If you thought they were slavish in 2008, just wait until you see what they do beginning around late 2011. It will resemble being locked in a room with Zac Efron and a dozen reporters from Tiger Beat.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 05:59 PM (AZGON)

56 just imagine what is going to happen to real estate prices when the Fed runs out of steam and has to start letting interest rates rise

Dude, I can't start drinking this early in the day.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:00 PM (AZGON)

57

If I were the GOP I'd start worrying about keeping my base from STARTING a third party. I have no problem setting fire to the Republican drapes these days if they want to hand me another McCain.

Dobbs' issues appeal to enough of the base. The issues of urbane squishes and the dildo deprived like Meg who want to show how metrosexual they are don't.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 06:01 PM (ujg0T)

58
I'm pretty sure Rickshaw Jack is not a real rickshaw.


Posted by: a.k.a. at November 25, 2009 06:02 PM (AUHeF)

59

The problem is, the official GOP nominee in the last presidential election, and the last three for that matter, *didn't* want what was listed. Which is far from being "beside the point", isn't it?

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 05:46 PM (ujg0T)

Which is why I said that both the official and the independent *could* both want what you stated, and it would still be an issue of splitting the red vote, thereby handing the win on a platter to the left.  Even if the official nom were to, as you say, adopt the same position as Dobbs if he were to also run, there'd still be a chunk that would vote for Dobbs just because they may like him better.  Adopting his positions isn't a guarantee he would fold.  You don't know the power of their egos until the situation presents itself.  Hell, Obama and Hillary weren't really saying anything different when they were campaigning, and she fought tooth and nail.

One of the big issues with McCain being who he was and possibly winning was that he would end up with a Dem House and Senate, and we knew he'd buckle like a belt.  I'm saying that if we get either the House and/or Senate in 2010, which seems very likely, we'd be shooting ourselves in the foot to allow a third party to fuk it all up in 2012.  If there's any hope of repealing healthcare, which I would bet passes (not betting a lot, mind, but am willing to bet), we need our person in the Oval Office.

Posted by: tdpwells at November 25, 2009 06:03 PM (Ei3oZ)

60 If I were the GOP I'd start worrying about keeping my base from STARTING a third party. I have no problem setting fire to the Republican drapes these days if they want to hand me another McCain.

Bingo, I've voted for the GOP as a vote against the other side for the last time.  If the GOP doesn't give me someone worthwhile to vote for then they don't get my vote.  No more McCains!

Posted by: gau at November 25, 2009 06:03 PM (n1uMU)

61 While I love how Palin utterly unhinges the leftards, we have to take her at her word for the present when she says she won't run in 2012.

Cite?  She's been dodgy on the question, but who would answer that they're running one year into the competition's term?  Just as a point of fact.  If you saw the O'Reilly interview, there was a point Monday when he pushed, specifically on her wanting to lead the tea party movement, saying that he could see it in her eyes.  It was pretty easy to see.

Posted by: Methos at November 25, 2009 06:05 PM (CoDwG)

62

"The government works best when it can't legislate"

Agreed.  Love me some gridlock.  Wish I could convince the lefties in my life that if "all politics is local," why don't we agree to disagree at the federal level, not give the feds any of our money, and govern our little communities the way we see fit. If a majority of Californians want entitlements, knock yourselves out. Just don't do it with my money. 

It's odd, but out of all the Obaminations to come down the pike here recently, the thing that drove me to cheap Val-U-Rite drink was the extension of unemployment benefits, but only to states with high unemployment.  MY tax dollars, coming from a functioning state with a budget surplus, going to failed states like Michigan. B@#$sh$t!

Posted by: the other coyote at November 25, 2009 06:08 PM (yK44T)

63 61
I thought she answered that question directly on Okra Wimpey's disdainfest. I could be mistaken.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:08 PM (AZGON)

64 Jim in San Diego,

Do you realize that your tone always reads like angry yelling?

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:10 PM (jlvw3)

65 ACE, according to rasmussen and fox news poll...PALIN outperforms Obama among indy voters. SHE CAN DO IT! Please do not buy into the MSM narrative that she is "polarizing." The numbers show Obama is more polarizing than her.

Posted by: Dan at November 25, 2009 06:11 PM (KZraB)

66 I realize this is the internet but I do not think that old time *conservative* manners like friendliness and coolness of demeanor are passe.

Can we all agree to work on *that* aspect of conservatism?

I'm really getting a little weary of the constant yelling.

This place used to be kind of chill. I would like that chill, friendly tone back again.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:12 PM (jlvw3)

67

Since when has Allah's analysis been worth a tinker's damn?

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at November 25, 2009 05:54 PM (H7Rlw)




Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:13 PM (+FzLa)

68 Huh.  I refused to watch Oprah.  I'd bet it was more along the lines of 'I have no plans' , 'Who knows what the future holds?' , etc. than "I absolutely have no intention and would not serve if nominated, yadda, yadda.'

I rather think she'll go on playing coy until after next year's elections and then have a Dick Cheney picking Bush's VP moment.

Posted by: Methos at November 25, 2009 06:13 PM (CoDwG)

69 Chill? Chill? What does this word mean? You are a denier.

Posted by: ManBearPig at November 25, 2009 06:14 PM (AZGON)

70  06:01 PM (ujg0T) 58
I'm pretty sure Rickshaw Jack is not a real rickshaw.

So?

Posted by: AmishDude (I'm not Amish, but I play one on TV, which is sinful, so I don't) at November 25, 2009 06:14 PM (T0NGe)

71 64 Jim in San Diego,

Do you realize that your tone always reads like angry yelling?

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:10 PM (jlvw3)

Yeah, I kind of noticed that too in rereading some of my posts.

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at November 25, 2009 06:15 PM (H7Rlw)

72
yeah, remember how mellow we used to be?

Too bad CEDARF*RD isn't here to sooth us with his nazi rants.

Posted by: namewing plover at November 25, 2009 06:16 PM (AUHeF)

73
The government works best when it can't legislate.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 05:40 PM (AoS9J)

For an old fuck, you're pretty smart.  Well said, Methuselah.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at November 25, 2009 05:50 PM (UBQGM)





Screw you Morgenholz ! Just because I have an autographed tour t-shirt from the entire First Continental Congress,  that doesn't make me old !

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:17 PM (+FzLa)

74
Watch your ass, mister, or we'll check out your amish credentials.

Posted by: namewing plover at November 25, 2009 06:17 PM (AUHeF)

75 Jim,

Thanks for noticing. We're all on the same team here. We can disagree in a friendlier manner.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:19 PM (jlvw3)

76

Which is why I said that both the official and the independent *could* both want what you stated, and it would still be an issue of splitting the red vote, thereby handing the win on a platter to the left.  Even if the official nom were to, as you say, adopt the same position as Dobbs if he were to also run, there'd still be a chunk that would vote for Dobbs just because they may like him better. Adopting his positions isn't a guarantee he would fold. 

I have to go with history here. Co-opt the 3rd Party and it folds.

You don't know the power of their egos until the situation presents itself.  Hell, Obama and Hillary weren't really saying anything different when they were campaigning, and she fought tooth and nail.

That's a *primary*. If Dobbs actually wanted to mix it up in the GOP primary, hey, come on in, the pool is open and the water is warm. I want to get back to realp primaries that were not coronations, which is why we really need to overhaul our utterly screwy front-loaded and all too often "open" primary system.

 


 

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 06:20 PM (ujg0T)

77 74
Watch your ass, mister, or we'll check out your amish credentials.

Posted by: namewing plover at November 25, 2009 06:17 PM (AUHeF)

I'm plain to the bone.  P-p-p-p-p-plain.  Plain to the bone.

Posted by: AmishDude (I'm not Amish, but I play one on TV, which is sinful, so I don't) at November 25, 2009 06:20 PM (T0NGe)

78 I would like that chill, friendly tone back again.

Sure thing, cockholster.

Posted by: Methos at November 25, 2009 06:20 PM (CoDwG)

79 Just because I have an autographed tour t-shirt from the entire First Continental Congress, that doesn't make me old!

Yeah, but did you make it with Ben Franklin? Man, the parties at his inn...

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:21 PM (AZGON)

80 My girlfriend has a "George Washington Slept Here" plaque over her bed.

Just sayin'.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 25, 2009 06:21 PM (T0NGe)

81 >>>ACE, according to rasmussen and fox news poll...PALIN outperforms Obama among indy voters. SHE CAN DO IT! Please do not buy into the MSM narrative that she is "polarizing." The numbers show Obama is more polarizing than her.

Maybe his more polarizing. But that's something she has to work on. I have said numerous times that she gets a bad rap on this: She hasn't said a single "extreme" thing I'm aware of. She is a mainstream orthodox conservative.

She gets a lot of crap claims that she's extreme. I think it is mostly based on the Blasphemous Utterances (she ridiculed Obama when everyone was convinced that was against the Code of the Elder Scrolls).

But still, she has to work to undo this unfair conception.

And she still does have to work very dilligently to convince even well-wishers like me that she's ready for the Number 1 slot. I thought she was ready for the Number 2 slot, and thought she *could* be ready for Number 1 given enough seasoning. But as of yet I don't see the seasoning.

What I see is her trying to earn her cred, doing the sorts of things I asked her to do. I am not saying she's not doing it. I'm saying she needs to keep on doing it. At the end of the day the Presidency is the most powerful position on the earth and it takes a special kind of super-competence to be worthy of it.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:24 PM (jlvw3)

82 sorry. 7.5% is not a bad unemployment rate. Especially given the fact Bush will get blamed for it.

You can bet that if the government doesn't hire everyone, and lobbyists don't hire the rest unemployment will be over 9% in 2012. It has not peaked yet. Not even close.

After 2010, taxes go up. Election year, more deficit spending on electoral goodies.

This won't be pretty.

Posted by: jeff at November 25, 2009 06:25 PM (Sx9Qk)

83 And don't compare her to Obama: Obama was incompetent and unprepared and we see what has become of that.

It is not enough to be as prepared and competent as Obama: That has led to disaster.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:25 PM (jlvw3)

84

Do you realize that your tone always reads like angry yelling?

Does my tone always sound like disjointed, free-associated un-cleverating?

Posted by: Chef Boy RD (rdb) at November 25, 2009 06:25 PM (1a8lY)

85 >>>sorry. 7.5% is not a bad unemployment rate. Especially given the fact Bush will get blamed for it.

???

Dude, 6% has been regarded lately as a bad unemployment rate.

I get what you're saying -- I guess I"m saying something similar -- but 7.5% is bad. Not awful, but bad.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:26 PM (jlvw3)

86 Dude, I can't start drinking this early in the day.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:00 PM (AZGON)

Sorry about that. That's why I didn't mention anything else, like the monetary shock that an Israeli strike on Iran might have ... oops.

BTW, is it just me or are credit default swaps on US Treasuries the most insane and asinine financial instruments ever thought up in the history of the world? I mean, if the US defaults (or worse) who thinks they are going to collect on any insurance?

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 06:27 PM (A46hP)

87 Racist.

/race card

Posted by: GW McLintock at November 25, 2009 06:27 PM (zFh1t)

88 By 2012 the oceans will be 6000 feet higher and the polar bears will be jumping from buildings.  No one will vote for a holocaust global warming denier like Palin.  No one will vote because the voting machines will melt before then.  Only a True Believer® can lead us from disaster.  Gore 2012.

Posted by: U of East Anglia CRU at November 25, 2009 06:27 PM (pGNeB)

89

With Mike Huckabee as the Republican nominee, Obama leads 42% to 36%, with Dobbs at 12%.

That doesn't make a lot of sense, considering that Dobbs is a pretty standard issue liberal in almost all respects.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 06:28 PM (AuzAI)

90 >>>Sure thing, cockholster.


Hah! Ball-busting of course welcomed, Douchebag McDickmuncher.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:28 PM (jlvw3)

91 Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:13 PM (+FzLa)

But an incorrectly set clock is almost never right. Just sayin' ...

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 06:29 PM (A46hP)

92

>>>sorry. 7.5% is not a bad unemployment rate. Especially given the fact Bush will get blamed for it.

Don't sweat it--we are already at 10% and rising. I am betting on 13% by 2012.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 06:29 PM (ujg0T)

93 How are they making unemployment projections like that? How are businesses that create jobs going to grow, especially with all the wack-a-doo taxes and regulations coming out of the white house and capitol hill? OR are they supposing Republicans taking over both houses in 2010 and giving Obambi what for?

Other than that, I just don't see how projections of 7% are possible, unless they mean because of more people working for the government.

Posted by: Robin at November 25, 2009 06:30 PM (5NbOp)

94 BTW, is it just me or are credit default swaps on US Treasuries the most insane and asinine financial instruments ever thought up in the history of the world? I mean, if the US defaults (or worse) who thinks they are going to collect on any insurance?

All I know is the Brilliant Minds Running International Finance haven't as yet seen an insurmountable problem with the US Treasury freaking printing a couple trillion dollars in fiat money... oh, excuse me... "open market operations."

So if that hasn't made pitchforks a popular item on Wall Street, what's a mountain of CDSs between friends? Goldman Sachs sure hasn't felt any pain lately.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:30 PM (AZGON)

95 Oh, yeah, and who is Lou Dobbbs and why would anyone vote for him?

Posted by: Robin at November 25, 2009 06:31 PM (5NbOp)

96 ...good Thanksgiving news for the Palinistas that she's only behind Captain Wonderful by 3 points.

BUNK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: Lincoln Adams at November 25, 2009 06:33 PM (gLNLT)

97 >>>Don't sweat it--we are already at 10% and rising. I am betting on 13% by 2012.

It's certainly one of the possible scenarios but not one of the more likelier ones. Then again, the "scenarios" are all kind of based on the simple and often dumb rule of thumb "kind of the same but a little better."

I don't know how much damage Obama will do or will be permitted to do. Keep in mind that Clinton raised taxes in 1993, and Republicans predicted all sorts of disaster, and that was wrong. What happened, likely, is that the tax hike reduced GDP growth and slowed employment, and yet both still grew, because basically, the economy is pretty resilient and still is mostly free. And free economies grow, in time.

I wouldn't bet the ranch on Obama *destroying* the economy. I'd say more likely there will be "missing growth" and "missing jobs," but there will be some growth and some job creation.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:34 PM (jlvw3)

98 All I know is the Brilliant Minds Running International Finance haven't as yet seen an insurmountable problem with the US Treasury freaking printing a couple trillion dollars in fiat money... oh, excuse me... "open market operations."

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:30 PM (AZGON)

"Quantitative easing", now. It's tough to keep up with the nomenclature, these days - though I do have to admit that 'quantitative easing' is kind of catchy.

The sad part is that the only solution to this problem (and there is a solution) is big time growth. Sadly, we have installed the most anti-growth administration and Congress in the history of the US. Oh well. It was fun.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 06:35 PM (A46hP)

99 Hah! Ball-busting of course welcomed, Douchebag McDickmuncher.

Good to hear see you laugh, ace.  In case I don't have a chance to say so tomorrow, happy Thanksgiving.

...

Apostate.

Posted by: Methos at November 25, 2009 06:36 PM (CoDwG)

100

7.5% is not a bad unemployment rate. Especially given the fact Bush will get blamed for it.

Obama can't run against Bush in three years time. Not even the media will fail to laugh at such an attempt.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 06:36 PM (AuzAI)

101 Oprah tried to pin Palin down on running in '12, but by no means did Palin definitively state that she wouldn't.  Who could blame her?  Eff Okra.

Posted by: Kensington at November 25, 2009 06:36 PM (tC9Uy)

102 aaaahhh .....the old "hypothetical three-way". 

Posted by: California Red at November 25, 2009 06:39 PM (9K6fX)

103 Rickshaw Jack@20:
"I hate it when people bash 3rd party candidates.
It's a free country."

When 3rd parties are obvious jokes, they should be laughed at.

When they're spoilers (and that's the only other option, really, let's be honest) they deserve contempt (if they help elect Democrats).

Thus, third party Lou Dobbs would deserve only contempt.

Posted by: Kensington at November 25, 2009 06:39 PM (tC9Uy)

104

"Quantitative easing", now. It's tough to keep up with the nomenclature, these days - though I do have to admit that 'quantitative easing' is kind of catchy.

Is that the Fed term for just putting the tip in?

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at November 25, 2009 06:40 PM (dQdrY)

105 I wouldn't bet the ranch on Obama *destroying* the economy.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:34 PM (jlvw3)

ace, these fools in Washington are publicly discussing the idea of monetizing the debt. That might sound all nice and organized, but such an attempt would so quickly spin out of control (especially given all the other circumstances) that one must really think long and hard about what these folks are happily prancing towards. No one can bail the US out. If we spin out of control (and I'm not talking about kid's play stagflation like we had in the 70's) there will be no going back and nothing will be able to replace the dollar - not even the silly international currency they like talking about as an exit. We will be locked into something very, very grim.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 06:40 PM (A46hP)

106
Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:13 PM (+FzLa)

But an incorrectly set clock is almost never right. Just sayin' ...

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 06:29 PM (A46hP)





Look, not an AP fan by a longshot, but I agree with him more than I disagree with him. I mostly like to snark on the guy. He's pissed me off plenty of times in the past, but I ain't gonna totally write off the dude.  The most important part is we are winning. We are all winning. Good times ahead for all of us.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:41 PM (+FzLa)

107

I don't know how much damage Obama will do or will be permitted to do. Keep in mind that Clinton raised taxes in 1993, and Republicans predicted all sorts of disaster, and that was wrong. What happened, likely, is that the tax hike reduced GDP growth and slowed employment, and yet both still grew, because basically, the economy is pretty resilient and still is mostly free. And free economies grow, in time.

Mind you that the Great Upchuck of 1994 derailed any further economic damage the Clintonistas could do (domestically at least), and then Dick Morris and Robert Rubin persuaded the Clintonistas to triangulate and slash capital gains, fueling the dot-com boom.

You are right--I wouldn't bet on the Obamunists wrecking the economy. If there is a Great Upchuck in 2010, Obama might be a benign and ineffectual leader as Clinton was after 1994.

However, with "Grannyrictus McBotox Implants" (great term, BTW!) and Dingy Harry still running Congress, heck, make that forecast 18% UE by 2012, with revived inflation to boot.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 06:41 PM (ujg0T)

108

Obama's unpopularity stems from more than just the unemployment rate. There's the gigantic deficts, far surpassing anything which people were mad at Bush about. And theres all the other crap, from healthcare to cap-and-tax to amnesty to all the Maoists in his inner circle to the Dems persistent corruption.

Regardless of the employment rate in 2012, he's in trouble.  

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 06:42 PM (AuzAI)

109

Look, not an AP fan by a longshot, but I agree with him more than I disagree with him. I mostly like to snark on the guy. He's pissed me off plenty of times in the past, but I ain't gonna totally write off the dude.

I think AP is just pessimistic. He's not "Chalres Jhonson".

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 06:44 PM (ujg0T)

110

Obama's unpopularity stems from more than just the unemployment rate. There's the gigantic deficts, far surpassing anything which people were mad at Bush about. And theres all the other crap, from healthcare to cap-and-tax to amnesty to all the Maoists in his inner circle to the Dems persistent corruption.

I think that at last there is a disgust at the race-baiting by the Demunists and the LameSM (BIRM). At some point I fully expect 75% of the American people to say "OK, I'm a racist. Fuck you," and give all but the most gerrymandered of Demunists and the most folksy of Boll Weevil Democrats the boot.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 06:47 PM (ujg0T)

111 Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:41 PM (+FzLa)

While I have a great dislike for AP, I was just making a comment about the "broken clock" saying that people use a lot - that there are worse situations with clocks. Not a big deal.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 06:47 PM (A46hP)

112 Wildly off topic, but to offset my occasional unchillness:  anyone want Google Wave invites?  I have 13 of them left.


Posted by: Basic, b v at November 25, 2009 06:47 PM (SL3qo)

113 Must not think bad thoughts.

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at November 25, 2009 06:47 PM (H7Rlw)

114

95

Good question.

Posted by: Charlie Gibson at November 25, 2009 06:48 PM (pfStM)

115

I think AP is just pessimistic. He's not "Chalres Jhonson".

Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 25, 2009 06:44 PM (ujg0T)






Hes not even in the same ballpark as Herr Huffy. If he was, his boss MM would have shit-canned him a long time ago.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:48 PM (+FzLa)

116

100

FDR ran against Herbert Hoover in 1936 and 1940.

With the media's O worship continuing, it could happen. Not likely, but it could.

Posted by: The Q at November 25, 2009 06:49 PM (pfStM)

117

Really, who could compare to CJ? AP ain't even close.

I'm pretty sure AP isn't mentally ill.

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at November 25, 2009 06:52 PM (H7Rlw)

118 these fools in Washington are publicly discussing the idea of monetizing the debt

They are already monetizing the debt. Haven't got a linky button handy but search "martenson federal reserve monetizing debt" to see how the Fed is already doing the high finance equivalent of check-kiting. It's arcane, and consequently easily overlooked.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:53 PM (AZGON)

119 Ace, it's also worth noting that the recession of '92 was a) completely over by the time Bubba took office, and, b) compared to today, it was nothing.

And Clinton was still on a path to defeat until he sold out his base and began a triangulation strategy.  Obama is not that big a sell-out, he's a true believer and will ride that pony into the Abyss.

Posted by: nickless at November 25, 2009 06:53 PM (MMC8r)

120 re #118: I quote one important part

These are the three critical points to remember as you read further:

The US government has record amounts of Treasuries to sell.
Foreign central banks, which have a big pile of agency bonds in their custody account, would like to help but want to keep things somewhat under the radar to avoid scaring the debt markets.
The Federal Reserve does not want to be seen directly buying US government debt at auctions (and in fact is not permitted to, but many rules have been 'bent' worse during this crisis), because that could upset the whole illusion that there is unlimited demand for US government paper, but it also desperately wants to avoid a failed auction.
For various reasons, the Federal Reserve cannot just up and start buying all the Treasury paper that becomes available in record amounts, week after week, month after month.

Instead, it uses this three-step shell game to hide what it is doing under a layer of complexity:

Shell #1: Foreign central banks sell agency debt out of the custody account.

Shell #2: The Federal Reserve buys those agency bonds with money created out of thin air.

Shell #3: Foreign central banks use that very same money to buy Treasuries at the next government auction.

Shuffle, shuffle, shuffle, shuffle, shuffle, SHUFFLE, shuffle! Confused yet?

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:54 PM (AZGON)

121

While I have a great dislike for AP, I was just making a comment about the "broken clock" saying that people use a lot - that there are worse situations with clocks. Not a big deal.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 06:47 PM (A46hP)








I compare the whole thing to football. As a defensive lineman I thought the d-backs and most of the offensive backs and especially the qb were prima-donna's and pretty boys. Every position thought they were the most important and insulted the other, winning hinged on each and every group specifically.We fought, argued and sometimes things got real ugly, but when we took the field, we took it as a team and knocked the snot out of our opponents no matter how we felt about each other.

When we won,....we all won together.

Posted by: Blazer at November 25, 2009 06:55 PM (+FzLa)

122 >>>ace, these fools in Washington are publicly discussing the idea of monetizing the debt...

It's not that I discount yours as unlikely, it's that your putting all your eggs in one scenario-basket.

Although I strongly doubt it: One quarter of 6% GDP growth would signal a more normal recovery and would radically change assumptions -- including about deficits.

Is that possible? It IS possible. You never know.

I think it's unlikely -- I think this is going to be bad and we're not even at the midpoint yet. i'm less saying you're wrong than I'm saying that life does weird things sometimes.



Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:56 PM (jlvw3)

123 You know I can be found,
Sitting home all alone,
If you can't come around,
At least please telephone.
Don't be cruel to a heart that's true.

Baby, if I made you mad
For something I might have said,
Please, lets forget the past,
The future looks bright ahead,
Don't be cruel to a heart that's true.
I don't want no other love,
Baby it's just you I'm thinking of.

Posted by: MCPO Airdale at November 25, 2009 06:56 PM (UGAk/)

124

I hereby predict that Barry won't even run again in 2012.

Four years in one job is just too much for him. He's never pulled it off before and he won't start now.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 06:59 PM (AuzAI)

125

Hey Ace, I agree with you on Palin not *actually* being an extreme person. The problem I see is the *perception* - which our beloved fourth estate created, perpetuated, and refuses to correct - that she is a nutjob. Not sure there is anything she can do at this point to correct the record, especially when those holding the record won't open it to correction.

I'm just basing this on personal experience, I have a sister in NJ who I think is a pretty typical east coast republican, soccer mom and all that, who still thinks Palin banned books in the Wasilla library.  Doesn't matter how often I point out that it just ain't so, it's like the damage is done. What do they say about you never get a second chance to make a first impression. And again, when most people's news source isn't going to offer Palin that second chance, it's that much harder.

Posted by: the other coyote at November 25, 2009 06:59 PM (yK44T)

126 >>>Ace, it's also worth noting that the recession of '92 was a) completely over by the time Bubba took office, and, b) compared to today, it was nothing.

I know, but the Great Depression was even worse, and people stuck with FDR. Why? Occasional glimmers that things, while awful, were getting better.

It's not just whether things are bad or good. That counts. But what counts more is the direction the arrow is pointing in. Are things getting better?

People slowly adjust to what I keep calling the new normal. In a year, 10% unemployment will be the new normal, and they'll be quite heartened to see it drop to 8%.

>>And Clinton was still on a path to defeat until he sold out his base and began a triangulation strategy.

That helped but I am of the camp (and many statisticians agree) that basically it's economic conditions that determine 90% of voting. 90%.

Like that stat in football -- the team with the most turnovers loses 90% of the time. 10% other factors can overcome that, but 90% of the time, that's the way to bet.

Same with economics. This other stuff counts, but only for 10%.

If Obama has an up-arrow in 2012, he *can* win, because the economics will be neutral -- bad conditions, but balanced by fact things are getting better.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 07:01 PM (jlvw3)

127 Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 06:54 PM (AZGON)

Yes. The Fed has been buying up US debt, sometimes in strangely clumsy ways, like having it sold at auction, to buy it back from the primary dealers a week later - someone did some research on a batch of actual bond numbers to show how the bonds had moved around. But this is still small potatoes and will run into real problems when interest rates cannot be artificially contained. At that point is when we see if they are really going to try to monetize things, full bore. They likely will, since the momentum that their pre-monetization carries into that circumstance will push them forward. After that ... whoa, boy!

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 07:01 PM (A46hP)

128


FDR ran against Herbert Hoover in 1936 and 1940.

He was first elected in 1932. Did FDR really get that kind of milage out of invoking Hoover for 8 years?

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 25, 2009 07:01 PM (k9Ti8)

129 @124

You know, this pinheaded pantywaist in the White House is such a loose cannon that your prediction is at least as likely as something like Dobbs running some loser third party candidacy.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 07:03 PM (AZGON)

130

My grandma told me people stuck with FDR because they were stupid.  I might agree with her that they were mis- or uninformed, due to the state of the news back in those days. Plus the whole "the government is going to take care of you" meme was brand new back in those days. She says it took people longer to figure out "this dog don't hunt" than it does nowadays. Hindsight being 20/20 and all.  

Again, just personal experience, and my grandma was, politically speaking, somewhat to the right of Attilla the Hun. Frankly, she was too mean to die.  Held out to 103. The only reason she died was because she decided to die.

Posted by: the other coyote at November 25, 2009 07:05 PM (yK44T)

131 At that point is when we see if they are really going to try to monetize things, full bore.
Well, why not? These matters are so obscure to most people that if you told the average guy (much less any 52% person) that the Fed was buying Treasury debt, all you would get in return is a blank stare and a "Yeah? So what?"

We steer into Japan's lost decades unless this interest rate madness gets sorted out.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 07:06 PM (AZGON)

132

There are reports out now that Dobbs is considering a Senate run in NJ against Menendez.

That seems a bit more likely than trying to jump from a reporters slot to POTUS.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 07:07 PM (AuzAI)

133 That helped but I am of the camp (and many statisticians agree) that basically it's economic conditions that determine 90% of voting. 90%.

Hey, screw you, statistics.

Posted by: Al Gore at November 25, 2009 07:08 PM (CoDwG)

134
Ace keeps underestimating the damage Obama is doing to the economy. He's ruining it. We're headed for ruin and disaster.

Unemployment at 7-8% in 2012?

That's a pipe dream. Obama's schemes are not only failures as economic stimulus, but they will put an end to all attempts by the free-market to correct the economy to begin recovery. Obama is working directly against recovery to the good ol' days. He's transforming America into what China would be like if a college faculty was in charge -- brutal communism with a deranged sense of political correctness.

When Obama says we're in recovery, he isn't being deceitful or stupid. He means we're in recovery from white western imperialism.

Posted by: a.k.a. at November 25, 2009 07:10 PM (k9Ti8)

135 "Former CNN host Lou Dobbs is seriously considering running for U.S. Senate in New Jersey in 2012 as a stepping stone to a possible White House bid — a congressional matchup that would pit one of illegal immigration's biggest critics against a champion for immigrant rights.

Dobbs spokesman Robert Dilenschneider told The Associated Press Wednesday that Dobbs may challenge Sen. Robert Menendez, a Democrat, but is considering other offers he's received since his abrupt exit from Time Warner Inc.-owned CNN on Nov. 11 after 29 years on the news network.

"A logical step for Lou, should he choose to go into public life, is to run for the next Senate seat in New Jersey, or to accept some kind of appointed position, nationally or in New Jersey," Dilenschneider said.

A Dobbs candidacy in 2012 would set up a pitched battle over immigration against Menendez, the Senate's only Hispanic member."

 

 

----------------------------------------------------------

 

That would be juicy.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 07:10 PM (AuzAI)

136 It's certainly one of the possible scenarios but not one of the more likelier ones. Then again, the "scenarios" are all kind of based on the simple and often dumb rule of thumb "kind of the same but a little better."

I don't know how much damage Obama will do or will be permitted to do. Keep in mind that Clinton raised taxes in 1993, and Republicans predicted all sorts of disaster, and that was wrong. What happened, likely, is that the tax hike reduced GDP growth and slowed employment, and yet both still grew, because basically, the economy is pretty resilient and still is mostly free. And free economies grow, in time.

I wouldn't bet the ranch on Obama *destroying* the economy. I'd say more likely there will be "missing growth" and "missing jobs," but there will be some growth and some job creation.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:34 PM (jlvw3)


We aren't talking about a tax hike on a stumbling economy. We are talking about the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, the healthcare bill's taxes going into effect, and a possible income tax hike, although I don't think that's likely because the Dems have learned to tax corporations (who just pass it on to their customers) because people are dumb and don't realize that the money still comes from them. So that's at least two massive body shots to a currently shaky economy. All of this on top of massive deficits which will continue to weaken the dollar.

Meanwhile the enviroLeft is gearing up for cap and tax. You know American industry? You know, the one that outperforms all others even with the highest corporate tax rates in the world? Cap and tax is like a sucking chest wound. The more you produce, the more wealth you create, the more people you employ, the more you have to pay. What the hell kind of incentive is there to expand?

See, I hold that the Left thinks they can recreate the WWII era, without the war. The issue is that the American postwar boom was fueled by us being the only industrial base left. That will not happen here. If he kills industry here, it will move. They will set up their headquarters in Dubai and then set up factories all over the world.

I know the old saw about not attributing to malice what can be explained by incompetence, but you could not design a better plan for destroying the US economy. It's multipronged, it's time delayed, and it rewards the right vultures with the choice bits of the carcass. Just like with the housing bubble, they are hoping a Republican President is around to take the blame for their policies.

Posted by: Britt at November 25, 2009 07:12 PM (DcWbe)

137

I am of the camp (and many statisticians agree) that basically it's economic conditions that determine 90% of voting. 90%.

The good Bush economy never helped him or the GOP much.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 07:12 PM (AuzAI)

138 We steer into Japan's lost decades unless this interest rate madness gets sorted out.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 07:06 PM (AZGON)

Exactly. But Japan always had our market to sell into and to help drive growth around them. When we go the way of Japan ... there's no growth engine left for the world, and without growth, the West collapses.

I know that you know this. I'm just saying it for emphasis.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 25, 2009 07:13 PM (A46hP)

139

Getting "used ' to 12% unemployment?

Horseshit.

We're broke. Getting used to 10% -plus unemployment only happens when there is enough money to pay for all the welfare stuff. Money and investment and skilled labor will flood out of this country.

We are flat broke, and going many trillions more into debt every year. We can't afford our own defense right now, and our largest creditor will eventually be our largest military foe.

This will not end well. It will not be pretty. And that may not be a bad thing in the long run.

Posted by: TexasJew at November 25, 2009 07:15 PM (+SbK7)

140 wow power leveling wow power leveling street lamps street lamps World of Warcraft power leveling World of Warcraft power leveling wow power leveling

Posted by: wow power at November 25, 2009 07:16 PM (amVaT)

141 If the Kenyan keeps doing sex to me he will rub the hide off his meat stick, get gangrene, and die.

Posted by: The American Taxpayer at November 25, 2009 07:16 PM (fkU6c)

142 How many people here think Dobbs is going to keep this up until 2012? 

And the bigger question is, is Dobbs a plant?  Has he been put up to this by the Obama camp to split the conservative vote?  And what about Dobbs is conservative?  He has already recanted his position on illegal immigration.

Posted by: Scott at November 25, 2009 07:21 PM (OOGAA)

143 Look, can the West live with systemic unemployment around 9-10% for decades? Probably, as Europe has done... but Europe as well as Japan had a bigger economy to rely upon for markets... our economy. Life will go on with 10% unemployment in the Nation Below Canada. But it won't look much like life before The Messiah transmogrified the nation. Ace says 6% growth is possible, and it is. But so is twenty years of slow decline, and a whole generation with a stagnant aggregate standard of living. If you make your living in, say, Michigan, God help you.

God? Oh, I meant to say "Obama."

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 07:21 PM (AZGON)

144

I realize this is the internet but I do not think that old time *conservative* manners like friendliness and coolness of demeanor are passe.

Can we all agree to work on *that* aspect of conservatism?

Um, no.

Posted by: barbelle at November 25, 2009 07:23 PM (qF8q3)

145

As far as the ignorance I saw in this post, let me just say that if you have never started, ran or had to manage your own decent-sized business, and you buy into any of the crap that the number-tweakers in Washington are spinning out, you don't know shit about how bad Obama has, is and will be for our nation.

Take that as a cardinal rule.

We will be bleeding capital out of this country like an ocean. There are massive markets overseas who will welcome that influx of wealth from panicked American entrepreneurs and investors. An entire generation of educated kids may have to emigrate to escape a smothering socialist state, much as the post-war Brits did.

Why remain patriotic to a nation that destroys it own founding principles?

Our founding fathers refused to.

Posted by: TexasJew at November 25, 2009 07:24 PM (+SbK7)

146 Why would Lou Dobbs be running for President?  He blow through that 8 million severence already?

Posted by: barbelle at November 25, 2009 07:24 PM (qF8q3)

147

128

It didn't help that the GOP nominees basically conceded the New Deal as a base and stated that they would run it better, more efficiently, and slightly smaller. But yes, FDR evoked the specter of Hoover in each election, to dramatic effect.

Basically, FDR ran against the Bush record three times with McCain being the GOP nom in both reelction campaigns.

Posted by: The Q at November 25, 2009 07:27 PM (pfStM)

148 Basically, FDR ran against the Bush record three times with McCain being the GOP nom in both reelction campaigns.

Which is why I'm skeptical of those who say Barry can't "keep blaming Booooosh." Yes he can.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 07:29 PM (AZGON)

149

137

That would be Ace's 10%. 9/11 and the War on Terror were the defining issues, and John Kerry was the biggest douchebag in the history of American elections, but the ugliness in Iraq at that point made things closer than it should've.

But still: If the economy weren't improving in '04, Bush would've lost. The tax cuts had finally started working around election night, so people didn't give in to Dem fearmongering about jobs.

Posted by: The Q at November 25, 2009 07:30 PM (pfStM)

150

I do not think that old time *conservative* manners like friendliness and coolness of demeanor are passe.

Coolness? My dear friend (note the friendliness) my friends call me "Iceman". and complain of getting frostbite if they spend too much time with me.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 07:31 PM (AuzAI)

151

The good Bush economy never helped him or the GOP much.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 07:12 PM (AuzAI)

What planet were you on?

Well, then how did he get elected twice, as incompetent a speaker and party leader and as much of a big fat juicy MSM target as he was? If the economy was even slightly on its ass, Kerry would have wiped the floor with him.

The GOP killed itself and those dumbasses still managed to run things for the first 2/3rds of Bush's Presidency.

Posted by: TexasJew at November 25, 2009 07:32 PM (+SbK7)

152

Well, then how did he get elected twice

I'm pretty darn sure that the good Bush economy was not a factor in his first win. (In which he won by about 500 votes.)

And the low unemployment rate did not seem to be much good to him in 2004 either, when he won by about 30,000 votes.

Not did it impress the voters much when they kicked the GOP out of power in Congress in 2006.

If that's what low unemployment does to a party then we don't need to worry overmuch if the the unemploymen rate is 4% in 2010 or 2012.

Posted by: flenser at November 25, 2009 07:37 PM (AuzAI)

153 >>I gotta be honest. I didn't even vote.<<

Friend, that's fucking pathetic.

Sheesh. One hour every four years.

Posted by: railwriter at November 25, 2009 07:38 PM (daRzV)

154

"While I love how Palin utterly unhinges the leftards, we have to take her at her word for the present when she says she won't run in 2012."

Palen's actual comment was, "It's not on my radar at this time." Just like New York City isn't on the radar of a plane headed for the Big Apple when it leaves LA.

And, every author travels to book signings in a campaign bus escorted by a police motorcade.

 

Posted by: bw222 at November 25, 2009 07:40 PM (jqZr+)

155 #154
Fair enough. I would love nothing more than to see Palin win big. Let's hope this is possible.

Posted by: George Orwell at November 25, 2009 07:43 PM (AZGON)

156

.....I'd call it -- that an independent bid that draws from the right will put Obama back in office from 2013 to 2017.

So, just how bad does Obama have to fuck up before the "Independents" get a goddamned clue, and cast votes for a Republican candidate that stands a better chance of getting into office?  It makes no sense to waste a vote on an Independent candidate if all it's going to accomplish is put Obama back into office. Jaysus H.Tapdancing Christ...

Posted by: SFC MAC at November 25, 2009 07:47 PM (cuNX0)

157 the unemployment rate will not come down it will be 12 plus.

Posted by: pby at November 25, 2009 07:56 PM (MN2i7)

158 I realize this is the internet but I do not think that old time *conservative* manners like friendliness and coolness of demeanor are passe.

Not if I'm arguing with a leftwingnut. Somehow the *coolness* of phrases like "bovine scatology" don't have the same impact as "bullshit".

Posted by: SFC MAC at November 25, 2009 08:01 PM (cuNX0)

159 Heh. I'd like a three-way matchup with me, Sarah Palin, and Michelle Bachman, IYKWIMAITYD.

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 25, 2009 05:55 PM (hoowK)

FWIW, they're both reportedly heading up the tea party convention in February.

Posted by: ol_dirty_/b/tard at November 25, 2009 08:07 PM (Z0bVg)

160 Not saying we need to sell-out to them, but we will need them on board.

We don't need to sell out, I think the indies are already on board, as long as the R's become and remain fiscal conservatives and deficit hawks.

For information purposes, Perot got 19% of the vote and 0 electoral.  Yeah, we don't need a 3rd party candidate.

the unemployment rate will not come down it will be 12 plus.


"We'll see" said the zen master.  If history is any indication, if O continues along the FDR path, it could be higher. We'll see.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 25, 2009 08:28 PM (DIYmd)

161 I think Dobbs won't poll so well after his message on immigration gets all muddied.  He's already trying to mend fences with the Hispanic community.

Posted by: stuiec at November 25, 2009 08:34 PM (Ate22)

162 You guys act like every Third Party candidate that ever ran was just a spoiler or something.

Need I recite all the Third Party candidates that went on to win the Presidency?

Posted by: Lou Dobbs at November 25, 2009 08:38 PM (QECjC)

163

ACE...you asked for "seasoning," so I give you seasoning!

I often marvel at how people IGNORE all of Sarah Palin's accomplishments. They act like she has none and is popular for no particular reason other then people identify with her. Please share these FACTS.

1. Sarah took on corruption in her own party and risked her career in politics doing it. Name one politician who has done this that is currently serving. By the way, has Obama asked Charlie Rangel to step aside? NO, they are in the same party after all.

2. Sarah cut the budget in the Alaska which is unheard of. She saved money when the oil money was flowing in so now when the oil price dropped they are not cutting police or education or raising taxes to balance the budget. How are New York and California doing by the way on their budgets? How is Obama doing with his deficit projections? 9 trillion right?

3. Sarah TOOK ON THE MOST POWERFUL COMPANIES IN THE WORLD, the big oil companies to make sure Alaskans were getting a fair shake and SHE WON. Has Obama bucked the big labor unions in a similar fashion? Or the trial lawyers?

4. Sarah negotiated a natural gas pipeline deal that will result in the largest construction project in North America which will produce REAL JOBS and will provide CLEAN energy to the lower 48. Has Obama ever...oh never mind, its obvious he has not done anything like this and neither has anyone else who currently serves.

These are major accompishments and cannot be denied. Now, if you question whether the electorate knows about these things and therefore would not vote for her because they did not know them, I grant you that, but that is what a book tour, interviews, and a CAMPAIGN is for

I stand with her. I hope you join the party in the future. We will welcome you with open arms!

Posted by: Dan at November 25, 2009 08:41 PM (KZraB)

Posted by: jason at November 25, 2009 08:51 PM (/N/+G)

165 So Lou Dobbs gets 12-14% of the vote.
His old program was seen by maybe 2% of the voting population.
Uh-huh.

Posted by: jjshaka at November 25, 2009 08:57 PM (ipYeF)

166 Only people going to vote for Dobbs are those who watched his show.  And his viewer numbers were so high that CNN had a hard time deciding whether to keep him or not.   Hahahahahahaha!   NOT!

Posted by: GarandFan at November 25, 2009 09:00 PM (ZQBnQ)

167 Anyone polled how Mickey Mouse would do?

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at November 25, 2009 09:10 PM (dQdrY)

168 Does 12 percent of the population have the foggiest idea who the hell Lou Dobbs even is?

Posted by: CoolCzech at November 25, 2009 09:29 PM (QECjC)

169 Good share, Attractive enough for me, thanks for your kind share, Fashionable Christian Louboutin Keeps with you at any time. Anybody can tell me where i can buy the best and the cheapest shoes £¬I have to tell him that is christian louboutin shoes ,it will be your right choice.

Posted by: Christian Loubooutin at November 25, 2009 09:37 PM (r2ZIu)

170 It would be instructive if Rasmussen just pulled a name out of his ass and did a three way poll.

Posted by: Rodent Liberation Front at November 25, 2009 09:47 PM (dQdrY)

171

Sorry, when I hear "ass" and "three way," I cannot think of a funny comment. 

Posted by: Fartie Hemmorrhoidi at November 25, 2009 09:53 PM (DPM1U)

172 Hmmm.

Hell I could probably be within 3%-5% of Obama and I'm not even a natural born citizen.

...

For now, just this once, I won't go there.

Posted by: memomachine at November 25, 2009 09:58 PM (/+tPT)

173 So if Lou were to say...get a severed horse head in his bed, then everything is good again, right?   Nothing personal, strictly business.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 25, 2009 10:06 PM (sQJLd)

174

LOL the FED was the one saying the housing crisis was contained before it crashed.  the FEd was the one saying that inflation was a problem while they raised rates and destoryed the credit market.  the Fed was the one saying that $4.00/gas was not a big deal.  the FED warned along with the dems and Obama of 8% unemployment without passing the stimulus.

 

Answer me how unemployment goes to 7.5% in 2012 while the congress raises taxes, takes over 1/6th of the country, explodes the national debt causing long term interest rates to rise, killing any recovery if the high cost of energy does not do it first.

Obama will be lucky if unemployment is not 20% by 2012.  We are so screwed.  there is no way out of this without some hard choices and throwing some political allies under the bus.  first among them the environmentalist.   second the tax raisers, third the marxists.  without getting rid of those 3 groupd Obama is doomed to have 20% unemployment  by 2012.

 

Posted by: unseen at November 25, 2009 10:14 PM (aVGmX)

175 I don't know how much damage Obama will do or will be permitted to do. Keep in mind that Clinton raised taxes in 1993, and Republicans predicted all sorts of disaster, and that was wrong. What happened, likely, is that the tax hike reduced GDP growth and slowed employment, and yet both still grew, because basically, the economy is pretty resilient and still is mostly free. And free economies grow, in time.

I wouldn't bet the ranch on Obama *destroying* the economy. I'd say more likely there will be "missing growth" and "missing jobs," but there will be some growth and some job creation.

Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:34 PM (jlvw3)

 

Ace,

Clinton was lucky to be president during the invention and explosion of the internet.  The dropping of home computers to under $500.00.   this was like the invention of the car or the electrification of the nation.  those events do not come along very often. 

I see not major product coming on the scene in the next 2 .5 years that will revolutionze the entire economy like the internet did.  I see nothing out there that i have to buy.  Infact i see the opposite.  Flat screen TV's video on demand, the rise of video games and consoles, the easy of the internet means that there is more likelihood that Americans will stay at home  thereby decreasing economic activity. 

Throw in 10-12% unemplyment, high energy costs, higher inflation and  higher taxes and economic activy falls even more.  The only thing IMO that would cause massive economic activity and reverse the unemployment trend is a major deflationary cycle  which if the gov was not inflating would be occurring atm.  Giving citizens more money  not less and causeing more buying not less.

There is nothing in the economic make up at this time to suggest that employment is going to pick up.  In fact with the continuing outsourcing  the trend is to lose employment.  If everything stays the same. 

Posted by: unseen at November 25, 2009 10:30 PM (aVGmX)

176

66 I realize this is the internet but I do not think that old time *conservative* manners like friendliness and coolness of demeanor are passe.

Can we all agree to work on *that* aspect of conservatism?

I'm really getting a little weary of the constant yelling.

This place used to be kind of chill. I would like that chill, friendly tone back again.

 

 

Yeah I sensed a change in tone when someone on this blog suggested that most of his readers lived in a fantasyland  and not the real world.  I seem to remember something about the readers being stupid etc also.  That was around july 3 or 4th of this year. 

Posted by: unseen at November 25, 2009 10:33 PM (aVGmX)

177

Fine, compare her to Dean, or Kerry, or even Gore, that's about the general style of Democratic nominees or wannabes. You think "Richie Rich" Mittens or Huckabee would really hold that kind of advantage, over three years

Posted by: ian cormac at November 25, 2009 10:48 PM (GkYyh)

178 I see nothing out there that i have to buy.

Pelosi can take care of that.  You'll buy whateverthefuck they say to buy or off to prison with you.

The Japanese "encouraged" domestic car sales by requiring the whole drive train and running gear be replaced every 7 years (for "safety reasons" of course).  Obviously doing that is more expensive than buying a new car in most cases.

This congress is capable of anything.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 25, 2009 11:28 PM (sQJLd)

179 Cheer up.  You know the projections are always rosier with a Democrat President.

Posted by: FUBAR at November 26, 2009 01:15 AM (O9Ggc)

180 aaaahhh .....the old "hypothetical three-way". 

Posted by: California Red at November 25, 2009 06:39 PM (9K6fX)

----- ------ --------- ------- ----- ----- ------ ---- ------- ---- --------- ----- -------

The only "three-way" I am interested in involves the Doublemint Twins. 


Posted by: mcassill at November 26, 2009 01:45 AM (dK24g)

181

3 years is a very long time, I don't think there can be any serious discussion about contenders until after 2010. If the present group of kleptocrats retain their majority, we are in for a very rough ride.  Dobbs would do better running for Senate as an Independent.  The fact that he's pulling 12% should speak volumes to the GOP leadership.  I have a feeling that the Independent voter is going to have their voices heard in the next 4 years......    

Posted by: wytshus at November 26, 2009 03:28 AM (C8byF)

182 Dobbs?????

What in the 40 levels of hell made him to do a three-way with Dobbs?  Is everyone still one the Dobbs bandwagon because he sixes with conservatives on ONE issue?  Dobbs is a liberal who is against illegal migration.

And how do we know he was pulling votes from the right vs from independents?

As for Romney and Huck I wonder how many people said "none of the above" and would have voted for some other third Party?

Personally I think any polls are meaningless until just before election day. But right now they are absolutely useless. But this does illustrate one thing, our entire supposed two-party system with primaries and then elections needs to be revamped.

Posted by: Vic at November 26, 2009 03:47 AM (CDUiN)

183 Posted by: ace at November 25, 2009 06:56 PM (jlvw3)

Tangentially related, though impactful: Dubai has just announced that they are going to be in default on their debt come December. They asked for a standstill, but only because they can't pay, and won't pay.

It doesn't take too many of these little cracks to rattle the whole system. Back in 1997, it was little Thailand that caused the currency crisis that rocked the world and almost brought everything crashing down.

I'm not saying that Dubai is going to cause anything of the sort, but just that this is some food for thought. We have no margin for error, these days, but at the same time we have policies coming out of Washington that are exclusively anti-growth and pro-spending ... and militarily weak, too. Quite the perfect storm.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 26, 2009 05:05 AM (A46hP)

184 During the Clinton years the majority of Americans were unaware of how volatile was the world (I know I was clueless), so it is difficult to compare poll numbers.

Obama did not campaign on an anti-American platform however he is governing as an anti-American.

There is an old saying-weak horses end up in the slaughter house.

There is a weak horse in the White House-weaker than Jimmy Carter.

Like Rudy Giuliani mentioned the other day in an interview-our enemy is patiently determined and they can wait it out;  eight years went by between 1993 attack and 2001 attack.

Because there is a weak horse in the White House-this weak horse is leading its own military to the court house for slaughter-  Americans will find out that what is in their wallets is not as important as the devastation surrounding them.

A majority of Americans have forgotten 9/11/2001 and because they failed to learn from history they're going be reminded all over again.

Just because we are all concentrating on our wallets does not mean our enemies have stopped concentrating on destroying us.

There is a weak horse in the White House leading our military to the court room slaughter house-ignore at our own risk.





Posted by: syn at November 26, 2009 07:02 AM (ZjEOd)

185 PS:  I don't hate Moderates or Independents; I simply believe coddling them as if they are children incapable of making sound choices hurts them more than it helps America.

Adults should be able to distinguish between what is right and what is wrong; only children need baby steps.

By coddling Moderates and Independents with 'little baby steps' they're being treated like they are children; they're adults and it is time they accept the reality surrounding their lives.


Posted by: syn at November 26, 2009 07:10 AM (ZjEOd)

186 Another thought; if the guys over at Hillbuzz are any indication of mass conversions to come then there is a large percentage of Democrats who are thoroughly enrage by what Rahm Emanuel and David Axelrod have done to their Democrat Party.

I am fascinated that Moderate Republican Romney has no appeal to these Democrats burned by Obama while they have been actively formulating a grassroot campaign to help the lady from Alaska to win. (This is where Allahpundit needs analyse and refornulate his opinion on what is moderate)


Honestly; over the last nine years since I became politcally active I have yet to see either Republicans or Conservatives network to get a Republican -Conservative candidate elected than the networking these Clintonites are doing for Sarah Palin.  Ignore this at your own risk too.

May I suggest we start learning some terrific campaign lessons being taught to us by the guys over at Hillbuzz-all that we have done over the last nine years is bitch and complain.

Now is the time that for us to actively DO rather than just bitch about whether or not our candidate fit a particular poll number.

I find it extraordinary that guys over at Hilbuzz will be major players in getting the lady from Alaska elected into the White House.

Meanwhile, the Republican Party is stuck on Romney only because he is next in line; this is no way to get voters to show up and vote for your candidates.

It is clearer now as to why Republican Party struggles and fights during every election-we keep doing the same tired 'next in line' approach with the same tired people.

Reagan was successful at a landslide because he was an insurgent Conservative (both Marco Rubio and Sarah Palin are insurgents) running in the Republican Party.

Established Moderate Republicans never win landslides-so why advocate established Republicans such Romney? He wil lose.


Posted by: syn at November 26, 2009 07:47 AM (ZjEOd)

187 Learn from this jewel of wisdom otherwise we'll continue to repeat the same mistakes and ending up with the same losing results:


"Someone like Michelle Bachmann would be incredible, but our friend insists she’s not even on the long list, let alone the short list for the job.  “Remember, Republicans are all about “whose turn it is” and “who has been waiting longest for the job”.  There is no sense of timeliness with them, and never any consideration for who would be best to lead the party.  They just get in a line and years later it’s their turn to be the nominee or the Speaker or whatever.  That’s how Republicans do things, and that’s why they are so beatable usually”.  (Hillbuzz)

Insurgent Conservatives will win those undecided, moderate, independent voter while the 'next-in-line-Republican Romney-like candidates will always lose.

There is no need for a third party when the solution is simple: do not keep running 'next-in-line' candidates.

Next-in-line Crist is up again insurgent Conservative Rubio and Rubio is getting the attention while Crist is looking like a fool. 

We'd be foolish to run a next-in-line-Romney when we have an insurgent Conservative who can bring a landslide.





Posted by: syn at November 26, 2009 08:05 AM (ZjEOd)

188

"If illegal immigration is a big issue to you, and the GOP roles out another McCain, there is the issue that drives voters to Dobbs"

Did I miss something or did Dobbs not announce this week he is now FOR amnesty!!! should be a clue there as to his intentions...and perhaps a colusion with CNN to let him go so he could make a run for pres and siphon votes from the republicans

Posted by: rookwood at November 26, 2009 08:16 AM (cOXVZ)

189 You say next-in-line like it's a bad thing or something

Posted by: Bob Dole at November 26, 2009 08:19 AM (vmeGA)

190 What was that killer question a famous politician once asked.....Do you feel better off now?  It was something like that.  Unfortunately, I suspect there is a small, vocal, powerful group that might be able to answer yes (I want some of those drugs!).

Posted by: J at November 26, 2009 09:32 AM (T3/qP)

191 Sure, nothing like a quickie poll to help the RINOs keep you trimmers and sellouts in line. Good luck with that.

Posted by: Ken at November 26, 2009 09:59 AM (rQI8i)

192 exactly dobbs said he was for amnesty fuck him hopefully we get all the demokunts to vote for him also the vichy right wingers A.K.A the far lefties of the repub party masquerading as right wingers

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