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Tremor: Republicans Now Have Same 4% Edge in Generic Congressional Ballot They Had in 1994

Actually, the "same" edge is misleading but it's close enough. Depending on what month you look at, Republicans were either tied with the Democrats (near the elections) or had some 1-5% advantage running up to the elections:

The pattern, as explained by Gallup, is that when Democrats do well in elections, this is prefigured by big double-digit leads in the Congressional generic. When Republicans do well, it's prefigured by Republicans either being tied or just a tad ahead.

The technical definition of a "tad" is 4%:

Of course this is one poll and it might turn out to be one of those occasional samples that actually favor Republicans.

Having said that, I don't know whether to take Independents' shift as an earthquake or an outlier. Because, according to Gallup, Independents now favor Republicans by a 12 point edge.

Did I say 12? I meant 22.

Byron York writes:

It's an extraordinary turnaround for the GOP. Last July, Democrats held a six-point lead. Last December, Democrats held a 15-point lead. At one point in 2007, Democrats held a 23-point lead, and for all of that year, 2007, Democrats held a double-digit lead.

The new Republican lead is the result of a dramatic move of independents toward the Republican party. In the new poll, according to Gallup, the GOP leads among independents, 52 percent to 30 percent -- whopping 22-point margin. Last month, the Republican lead among independents was just nine points, and in July, the GOP lead was a single point. So among independents, the Republican lead has gone from one point to 22 points in less than six months -- with much of lead accumulating in the last month.

'This administration has pulled off an astonishing hat trick -- they have irritated Democrats, alienated independents and energized Republicans," says the Republican National Committee in a statement on the poll released this morning.

Here's the downside: This poll, if confirmed, may actually make it more likely, not less, that ObamaCare passes.

Consider: If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

Update: I have been emailed by an executive at MSNBC informing me that Chris Matthews has developed "secondary post-traumatic stress disorder" just by being told about this poll by someone else.

Damnit! Purple Avenger posted this last night. Oh well. It's not a repost, it's a recontextualization.

Plus mine has pretty pretty graphs.

Posted by: Ace at 11:57 AM



Comments

1 YeeeeHaw!

Posted by: Reckless Abandon at November 11, 2009 11:59 AM (tahIV)

2 Fwap fwap fwap

Posted by: lorien1973 at November 11, 2009 12:00 PM (IhQuA)

3 So how are the repubs gonna screw this up?

Posted by: Bosk at November 11, 2009 12:00 PM (pUO5u)

4 So how are the repubs gonna screw this up?

One day at a time.... One day at a time...

Posted by: Mjim at November 11, 2009 12:01 PM (V8B//)

5

Here's the downside: This poll, if confirmed, may actually make it more likely, not less, that ObamaCare passes.

Consider: If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

Thanks Ace, for always seeing the dark lining behind every silver cloud.  Unfortunately, I think you are right.

Posted by: runningrn at November 11, 2009 12:02 PM (qP2BK)

6 The GOP needs three things to re-enact a 1994 sweep. 1) a leader. 2) good candidates. 3) a solid populist platform like Contract w/ America

Posted by: Andrew Sullivan at November 11, 2009 12:02 PM (ucq49)

7 they have irritated Democrats

Note: Liberals are very disappointed. Not: "Dems flock to auto-fellating goober Party of reified yes-robots"

Big difference

Posted by: George Wallace at November 11, 2009 12:02 PM (RdKK8)

8 Consider: If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

Instead of a man on death row, think of a suicide bomber. That is more along the lines of what the lefties really are and what they are trying to do. And this suicide attack was taking place, no matter what the polls said. It is just how the left is. This is their pathology.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 11, 2009 12:03 PM (A46hP)

9

Personally I'd like the GOP to go on record saying that the first thing they'll do if elected is repeal the ObamaPelosiReidCare legislation. I assume that a repeal bill is the same as normal legislation so it'll get blocked in the Senate or vetoed but it would enable them to say "Hey you don't like this, we listened and those guys are ignoring you - Vote for more of us next time...."

Not sure if that would be smart politics...

Posted by: TonyG at November 11, 2009 12:04 PM (uJR2N)

10

@6  Sorry. Forgot to take the puppet from yesterday off.

 

Anyone got the link to the blog voting site?  I forgot to bookmark.

Thx

Posted by: MDr at November 11, 2009 12:04 PM (ucq49)

11 If you heard Rush yesterday, he subscribes to the same meme as Ace.  These traitors have been promised forevah cushy jobs in the new health care bureaucracy.  It's a win-win.  It sounds like nothing short of a meteor is going to stop it.  Uncle Facts, please oblige.

Posted by: RushBabe at November 11, 2009 12:04 PM (LKkE8)

12

Consider: If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

Consider. If this crap sandwich is passed, Republicans can campaign on it's immediate repeal.

Posted by: maddogg at November 11, 2009 12:05 PM (OlN4e)

13 NO-MORE dang RINO's

Posted by: Dustoff at November 11, 2009 12:05 PM (xqzGc)

14 We really did need an Obama to get a _____________(fill in the blank with the name of the next Reagan).

Posted by: Big Daddy at November 11, 2009 12:05 PM (pOcKt)

15 And this suicide attack was taking place,

Thank GAWWWWD for that muslim terror attack by the terrorist cell of one.

Oh, why couldn't more Ft. Hood soldiers be killed? It'd sure improve our midterm-election results

Posted by: GOP Base at November 11, 2009 12:06 PM (RdKK8)

16 14.  PALIN.

Posted by: RushBabe at November 11, 2009 12:06 PM (LKkE8)

17

Here's the downside: This poll, if confirmed, may actually make it more likely, not less, that ObamaCare passes.

Consider: If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?


I've asked this question before and been told "Don't worry, they won't dare."  The reasoning being that not All of them are up for re-election next year and the ones that aren't don't want to risk their own seats down the line.  I've never really bought into that reasoning because most politicians figure, rightly, that the voting public has a very short memory.

Posted by: Fuloydo at November 11, 2009 12:07 PM (S7Z5Z)

18 2006: David Warner

2010: A big pane of glass sliding off the back of a truck

Posted by: ace at November 11, 2009 12:07 PM (jlvw3)

19
This poll, if confirmed, may actually make it more likely, not less, that ObamaCare passes.

Somehow, someway, the GOP will keep on f*cking that chicken.

Posted by: Dang Straights at November 11, 2009 12:07 PM (Haq+B)

20 Sadly, part of the reason Republicans had such low approval ratings from 2006 until 2008 was that many people thought they were still running Congress. Fifty-seven percent of Zero's supporters believed this. I'm afraid our public education system is so bad that many people--if not most--believe we live in a constitutional monarchy and that the president's party always runs Congress.

It's now so obvious that even the Treasonous Media (TM) can't hide the fact that the Democrats are the ones ruining the country.

Posted by: Fresh Air at November 11, 2009 12:07 PM (uFqVv)

21

Still good odds that this dies in the Senate. House members can play kamikaze with their political careers, Senators don’t.

Posted by: Sean at November 11, 2009 12:08 PM (9Gi0o)

22 -    Great News!

Fruit Bats For Everyone!!!!

-

Posted by: BumperStickerist at November 11, 2009 12:08 PM (ruzrP)

23 Representatives might take this position but Senators take a longer view. Plus they convince themselves that they are the last bulwark against tyranny, etc. etc. I think if Repubs can convince the Dem waverers that history has stopped calling Olympia and wants to get them on the line instead, we could kill this thing so dead it can't even turn into a zombie and ooze onto the floor.

Posted by: joncelli at November 11, 2009 12:08 PM (RD7QR)

24

Fuck off, Erg.  It was the lefties that were hoping for disaster in Iraq and Afganistian to help their campaigns. 

Posted by: Kratos (on the back of Gaia, scaling Mt Olympus) at November 11, 2009 12:09 PM (9hSKh)

25
I still maintain it is necessary for the bill to pass for Republicans to have a rout in 2010.

Without it, why would people be inclined to toss out the Democrats? I mean if the Democrats appear to be kept in check, what's to motivate people to put the opposition in power?

Posted by: Tweet says stuff at November 11, 2009 12:09 PM (fTpd3)

26 Republicans can campaign on it's immediate repeal. Posted by: maddogg at November 11, 2009 12:05 PM (OlN4e) That is really a nice thought, but appeal of this sort of stuff is practically impossible, especially as the Traitor-in-Chief will still be occupying the White House. If this junk passes, secession will be the only real option left. Frankly, it IS the only real option, given that our nation has come down with a fatal case of lefty infestation. The left, once having reached such levels of infection, never gives up and cannot be reasoned with. The only solution is to split from them, wait for them to drive their nation into bankruptcy, and then buy up the remnants for a pittance - but only if the lefties don't come with the cheap land.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 11, 2009 12:09 PM (A46hP)

27

So the Repubs -- no, the conservatives -- have a slight edge.

If they can keep it!

I don't think crowing about this small and fluctuating percentage points is going to guarantee they'll be there in a year.

The way to handle this is to assume you're ten points behind and then work on your conservative bonafides to earn the trust of the great sea of disgusted voters -- voters with memories that go back to the reckless, pathetic behavior of the Repubs when they were on top.

Posted by: Ariel at November 11, 2009 12:09 PM (KLiFn)

28 13 NO-MORE dang RINO's Posted by: Dustoff

That's right, they need to be hunted to extinction.

Posted by: sTevo at November 11, 2009 12:12 PM (6qwfz)

29 Long way to go to November 2010, but this is good news.

Posted by: Fred at November 11, 2009 12:12 PM (xWGQr)

30 You can also look at it as:  If your 90% sure that voting for ObamaCare will get your political throat cut, YOU WON'T VOTE FOR IT!

Posted by: GarandFan at November 11, 2009 12:12 PM (ZQBnQ)

31 >>If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

Well, there is principle, and then there is pragmatism.

I think if you're a career politician who fought tooth-and-nail to get elected, then enjoyed that taste of power, you look at everything through the prism of keeping your seat.

So I don't think these polls by themselves are going to suddenly give legislators a principled stand.    That's just not their nature.  If they perceive that voting one way will cause a massive vote loss and a possible seat loss, they'll likely vote the other way.



Posted by: looking closely at November 11, 2009 12:12 PM (PwGfd)

32 Secession talk just keeps us from concentrating on changing things. It's a distraction*. Let's keep our eye on the electoral ball.

*Quite apart from the fact that the 2nd ID would roll on any state that secedes within a week of the declaration of secession.

Posted by: joncelli at November 11, 2009 12:14 PM (RD7QR)

33 The dems plan is to vote Wed. night before Thanksgiving with a reconciliation vote on the night of Dec. 23.  Because that is how they think.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 11, 2009 12:15 PM (DIYmd)

34 Courage and serenity are not qualities commonly found in our current political class. Under the circumstances I'm not sure if that's depressing or reassuring.

Posted by: gebrauchshund at November 11, 2009 12:15 PM (ZTGFz)

35

 I have been emailed by an executive at MSNBC informing me that Chris Matthews has developed "secondary post-traumatic stress disorder" just by being told about this poll by someone else.

Maybe he'll call Al-Queda to see how to bring down the U.S. After all "calling Al-Queda isn't a crime, is it?"

Posted by: Barry Hussain at November 11, 2009 12:16 PM (Er7HG)

36

@ 15

Your Mama gives great head, but I so hate standing in line...

Posted by: Satan at November 11, 2009 12:16 PM (OlN4e)

37

*Quite apart from the fact that the 2nd ID would roll on any state that secedes within a week of the declaration of secession.

I doubt that. Look what is POTUS.

Posted by: maddogg at November 11, 2009 12:18 PM (OlN4e)

38 Ace I would say for most of the Dems, and all of the so called Blue Dogs, it's the former rather than the latter. No politician ever really sees their defeat as automatic. If they can do something, anything, to stave it off they will. Even screwing the party and it's dreams. I think this is one of the prime motivators for the  Blue Dogs and some senate Dems going nuclear with Stupak. I think they think they can trade the pro-life vote off for the vote for the whole bill with their voters.

"We saved the babies and tried to help poor people"
It will work to an extent as I think many are in Huckabee territory and that's his bread and butter.

The problem is the pro-choice crowd is never going to go for it. They are trying to do the exact opposite. Stave off primary challengers from the left with the Public Option to get them to forget about Obama following Bush policies on so mich tthey hated. The Public Option won't be much of a prize for them though if Stupak is in there. They haven't been able to dump Hyde so there isn't a lot of confidence they can strip this once it's on the books.

I'm REALLY glad I am not a Dem congressman right now. The next year is going to be very, very ugly.

Posted by: Rocks at November 11, 2009 12:18 PM (Q1lie)

39 Maybe he'll call Al-Queda to see how to bring down the U.S. After all "calling Al-Queda isn't a crime, is it?"

Posted by: Barry Hussain at November 11, 2009 12:16 PM (Er7HG)

Calling Al Quaeda names is, according to the 4th Geneva Conventions.

32 Secession talk just keeps us from concentrating on changing things. It's a distraction*. Let's keep our eye on the electoral ball.

*Quite apart from the fact that the 2nd ID would roll on any state that secedes within a week of the declaration of secession.

Posted by: joncelli at November 11, 2009 12:14 PM (RD7QR)

You'll see. And it does no good to ignore the obvious. But, rest assured, even if states don't pull away, the chances are greater than 95% that this feral government will drive the dollar into oblivion and the federal government will just disintegrate, anyway. Between the two possibilities, I don't have to tell you which one is more reasonable and orderly.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 11, 2009 12:20 PM (A46hP)

40 ...or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

joncelli at 23 beat me to it, but i'll second his point a bit. In the House, you have the true believers who are going to damn the torpedoes, or the moderates who are going to band together and go along with the party line, hoping somehow that things work out right for them.

The Senate however, that's a sweet gig, and why throw away the next twenty years of being in the Big Boy's club unless absolutely necessary, especially if a Dem does have enough sanity of a moderate tendency to not be fully on board with the gov't take over /tax boondoggle.

And since it is the Senate where the battle is going to be, we have a chance.

Posted by: Lee at November 11, 2009 12:20 PM (7y9kL)

41 Secession talk just keeps us from concentrating on changing things. It's a distraction*. Let's keep our eye on the electoral ball.

*Quite apart from the fact that the 2nd ID would roll on any state that secedes within a week of the declaration of secession.

Joncelli,
Do you think a General would obey such an order and do you really believe that teh Won would issue such an order?

My sense is that he would just let it happen because he is so gutless. And, teh won would find a blue country easier to "rule" (his word, not mine) than a purple one.

Posted by: Big Daddy at November 11, 2009 12:20 PM (pOcKt)

42 Time to slide right again?


Posted by: Lindsay Graham - Squish(SC) at November 11, 2009 12:24 PM (5iQTe)

43 So how are the repubs gonna screw this up?

Same as usual.

Get elected, vote for the same shit Democrats would (plus do some wackjob crap like try to ban video games or rap, knowing it's unconstitutional and crazy), then get tossed out for it, and become lobbyists (to Democrats).

Posted by: oblig. at November 11, 2009 12:24 PM (/eW6V)

44 I've never really bought into that reasoning because most politicians figure, rightly, that the voting public has a very short memory.

Posted by: Fuloydo at November 11, 2009 12:07 PM (S7Z5Z)


I say this is normally true. The problem for the Dems is that the public is intensely concentrating on Congress right now due to unemployment. Until the job outlook improves I doubt anything will distract them and it's not as if people have a lot of disposable income to buy other distractions with.

Posted by: Rocks at November 11, 2009 12:24 PM (Q1lie)

45 Secession is a tempting thought. It lets us believe that we can go our own way without hurting our countrymen. Lord knows I'd love to live in the Republic of Texas. But even the Gutless Wonder Obambi will never, ever let the country disintegrate on his watch.

Posted by: joncelli at November 11, 2009 12:27 PM (RD7QR)

46

If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

I think there are 2 flaws with this theory. First, you are discounting the very ego of 535 Congressmen and women. Yes, our party is going to have a tough election cycle, but, I can control my own destiny and if I manuever just right, I can survive the on slaught. Second, even if they think they are going to lose, they may very well go ahead and vote against Obamacare on the theory that, well, 2012 will look a lot different and I can climb right back up on the saddle and go again. In otherwords, the 2 flaws was discounting their ego and their ambition.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 11, 2009 12:28 PM (V9SYy)

47

45 Secession is a tempting thought. It lets us believe that we can go our own way without hurting our countrymen. Lord knows I'd love to live in the Republic of Texas. But even the Gutless Wonder Obambi will never, ever let the country disintegrate on his watch.

Well, it disintegrated under Abe Lincolns watch, and he was powerless to prevent it. And I think he might have been a bit more of a leader than Zero.

Posted by: maddogg at November 11, 2009 12:30 PM (OlN4e)

48 The conservative message machine (such as it is) needs to put out some excuses for Democrats to not vote for this. They know that its going to kill them at the polls in 2010. So, like anyone who has made a bad call, you make it easier for them to back out of it by suggesting the following:

- if you don't go through with it, there will be no punishment
- here are five reasons to vote no, all of which your constituents believe

Of course, once they vote no, you still rip them out of office in 2010.

Posted by: mr.frakypants at November 11, 2009 12:32 PM (PonvG)

49 Purple Avenger posted this last night. Oh well. It's not a repost, it's a recontextualization.

Plus mine has pretty pretty graphs.

And pretty graphs pretty much make any presentation better!

Posted by: My dimwitted boss at November 11, 2009 12:33 PM (V9SYy)

50 Well, Ace is sorta right.

The Far Left leadership just might opt for a 'banzai charge'.

The question is: will the non-lefties go along with it

Or will they refuse to leave the safety of their trench-line? 

What's the motivation for [non-ideological] incumbents to rush headlong towards certain doom [based on the 'known' poll numbers]?

Knowing the answer to that question will be the key to blunting a Liberal 'death ride'.

Posted by: CPT. Charles at November 11, 2009 12:34 PM (lYKj1)

51 Unfortunately, meaningless.

Let's say that next week Barney Frank is caught in a room full of dead adolescent teenage boys, knife in hand, holding a copy of "Dreams From My Father" and with his Democrat party membership card literally shoved up his ass. I guarantee that the NYT will fail to mention his party membership in their first six stories, will "accidentally" misstate it as Republican in their seventh, and only correct it in an ombudsman column published seven months after the 2010 elections.

If, however, a Republican is photographed shaking hands with Sarah Palin, we will be treated to endless news stories about the "scandalous" behavior and "shocking" intimacy.

Posted by: Rob Crawford at November 11, 2009 12:35 PM (ZJ/un)

52 But even the Gutless Wonder Obambi will never, ever let the country disintegrate on his watch.

Posted by: joncelli at November 11, 2009 12:27 PM (RD7QR)

But that is exactly what his goal is. The Precedent isn't looking to help America, as is obvious from everything single thing he's said and done. He's trying to destroy us and, more importantly, to stamp out the American creed. It is very unfortunate, but the only way to save the American creed (Limited federalized government, individualism, and private property rights), which is the truly important point, might just not rest with the United States, because of our fatal lefitst infection in the courts, Congress and the lame stream media.

But, as I said, I have feeling this will all be rendered moot by the destruction of our monetary system that is being brought on. Now, THAT will be something truly ugly. Truly, truly ugly.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 11, 2009 12:35 PM (A46hP)

53
lastnight = 8:47am


Posted by: Tweet says stuff at November 11, 2009 12:35 PM (fTpd3)

54

Well, it disintegrated under Abe Lincolns watch, and he was powerless to prevent it.

Actually, no. Secession started before Lincoln was inaugurated.

Posted by: Rob Crawford at November 11, 2009 12:36 PM (ZJ/un)

55
Obama's goal is to implement (his view of) social justice. That means a complete overhaul of how America "works."

Posted by: Tweet says stuff at November 11, 2009 12:37 PM (fTpd3)

56

Actually, no. Secession started before Lincoln was inaugurated.

IIRC, his election was tha catylist that got the ball rolling.

Posted by: maddogg at November 11, 2009 12:38 PM (OlN4e)

57

Be vewy, vewy quiet!  It's Wino Hunting Season:  Fwom South Cawolina newspapew "The Post and Courier":

The Charleston County Republican Party's executive committee took the unusual step Monday night of censuring U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham for stepping across the GOP party line.

County Chairwoman Lin Bennett said the unanimous vote "is an effort to get his attention. They (party leaders) are just fed up, and they want him to know they're fed up."

The resolution mentions Graham's cooperation with U.S. Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., on a bipartisan energy bill, and his support for the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program and the time he called some opponents of immigration reform "bigots."

"U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham -- in the name of bipartisanship -- continues to weaken the Republican brand and tarnish the ideals of freedom, rule of law, and fiscal conservatism," the resolution reads.

Bennett said the resolution passed unanimously by a voice vote among about 50 of the party's 104 executive committee members.

She said party faithful have talked about the resolution for a while. "The feeling is if you're not going to uphold the platform, then why bother to run as a Republican?" she said.

Posted by: Elmew Fudd at November 11, 2009 12:41 PM (qP2BK)

58
Yesterday Rush was saying the Left was willing to sacrifice its majority for the passage of the health care bill. The Left will do this because they're gambling on it to be only a temporary setback; eventually the tide will shift back to the Left as more and more people become dependent o government.

It's only natural to vote for the party of government when people depend on government to live, right? Well, that's what the Democrats are counting on.

Posted by: Tweet says stuff at November 11, 2009 12:42 PM (fTpd3)

59 Ace, don't forget the racist angle that The Precedent is pulling on Congress, too. He is threatening them with the idea that they will go down in history as the worst anti-black bigots ever if they take down his signature legislation and cause the collapse of his Precedency - as if it isn't collapsing under its own ineptitude, anyway, but that doesn't matter in the weird world we are now all inhabiting.

He'll also move into threatening that riots will break out if that happens (as he has already done several times, including his early campaign talk about "quiet riots"). Recall the attempts to racialize and stir racial animus in order to combat the Tea Parties and Town Halls and multiply that by 1000. I am thinking that he is going to start pushing harder on Crap&Trade, too.

Posted by: progressoverpeace at November 11, 2009 12:42 PM (A46hP)

60 Oh, why couldn't more Ft. Hood soldiers be killed?

Posted by: Liberals  at November 11, 2009 12:06 PM (RdKK

Actually, has anyone asked Michael Moore about the jihadi attack? After 9/11 his complaint was that the jihadis weren't killing conservatives.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 11, 2009 12:42 PM (7BU4a)

61 @51

bunk!

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at November 11, 2009 12:43 PM (5iQTe)

62 Yesterday Rush was saying the Left was willing to sacrifice its majority for the passage of the health care bill. The Left will do this because they're gambling on it to be only a temporary setback; eventually the tide will shift back to the Left as more and more people become dependent o government.

Posted by: Tweet says stuff at November 11, 2009 12:42 PM (fTpd3)


And that is why we need Republicans with a spine. At this point there is no more sense in merely slowing the socialist agenda. Either begin to roll it back or go home.

Posted by: 18-1 at November 11, 2009 12:44 PM (7BU4a)

63
censuring U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham for stepping across the GOP party line.

There's a better way of putting it. They should say they're censuring Graham for not representing the best interest of the people of South Carolina, as he was elected to do.


Posted by: Tweet says stuff at November 11, 2009 12:45 PM (fTpd3)

64 My point is that if States started to secede, they would do it in organized blocks. That would make it impossible for the Federal government to deal with for months, maybe years. The Military would be in disarray, with many, many soldiers leaving to go back to defend their states. It would be chaos, and Zero couldn't organize a fucking quilting party.

Posted by: maddogg at November 11, 2009 12:45 PM (OlN4e)

65

It's not a repost, it's a recontextualization.

 

As we say in the Senate, you revised and extended his remarks.

Posted by: John McMaverick at November 11, 2009 12:48 PM (AlENE)

66

I'm not sure the poll makes it more likely that the health care bill will pass the Senate.  Leadership in safe seats might very well want to push it anyways, but individual Dem Senators with their seats on the line are going to hesitate.

When was the last time a Dem Senator voluntarily risked or gave up his seat for anything short of death or major scandal?  Once they have that seat, nothing short of a 70 ton nuclear-powered titanium bulldozer is going to move them out of it if they have a say in the matter.

Now if that individual Senator was heading towards certain defeat- that's different.  However, if it comes to a choice between bolstering re-election chances and passing a unpopular bill they really, really want- bet on them doing whatever it takes to get re-elected if they have any shot at all.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at November 11, 2009 12:49 PM (plsiE)

67 Gallup?  Never heard of'em.

Posted by: Charles Gibson at November 11, 2009 12:52 PM (aoY4S)

68 censuring U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham for stepping across the GOP party line.

It's about time. Now they need to do the same for his butt bud McCain?


Posted by: Mr. Pissed at November 11, 2009 12:54 PM (EL+OC)

69 Re secession:

It would not happen given today's political and geographic makeup. Not even in Texas. The split between "liberal" and "conservative", in today's political argot, is far smaller than that which pertained during the Civil War between the slave and non-slave states (who were also divided on many other fundamental issues like federalism, trade, foreign policy, etc.). Almost all states now are dependant to greater or lesser degrees on Federal funding simply to remain solvent

But let's ignore all that and say that a state or several states secede. Many fictional scenarios have explored this possibility.

I wouldn't expect the military to remain intact now any more than it did during the first civil war. The National Guard forces would of course remain under the power of the Governors of the seceding states; and the Federal military garrisons in the states would naturally feel strong local affinities. And since much of America's military power stateside is concentrated in the (conservative) Southern states, there would be a significant splitting of the military ranks as well. So then the question is: would the secessionist military fight the Federal military? Answer: yes. And it would get nasty indeed, given the nature of a civil war.

But I don't see it happening. Our populations are not geographically separated as they were in the Civil War (i.e., there is no North and South). Every state, locality, and even neighborhood has conservative and liberal elements. That's why this contest will likely remain a political rather than a military one for the forseeable future. However, if attitudes continue to harden and the ideological split widens; if the Federal government becomes tyrannical (it's well on the way already); if a trigger-event occurs where Federal forces inflict mass casualties on citizens (think Waco or Ruby Ridge, only larger)...all bets are off.

Posted by: Monty at November 11, 2009 12:55 PM (4Pleu)

70

*Quite apart from the fact that the 2nd ID would roll on any state that secedes within a week of the declaration of secession.

The 2nd ID without all of the RedState boys and girls would be easy pickings for most state guards in the South, not to mention Texas.  


Posted by: Jean at November 11, 2009 12:59 PM (xCBQ4)

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72 @46
even if they think they are going to lose, they may very well go ahead and vote against Obamacare on the theory that, well, 2012 will look a lot different and I can climb right back up on the saddle and go again.

I think they know damn well that this is it.  The House bill was barely passed.  There won't be another attempt in '12.  After Hil's feckless attempt in '92, they didn't even have enough power left to try for another 17 years.  Even if health care did get another shot, they personally won't be there to benefit.  Yeah, they might get a job with the government, but really, how much fun is that compared to lording it over the serfs?
This brings me to my second point, which is my guess that the biggest opponents of health care right now are the House Dems.  There is no way for them to avoid an electoral bloodbath unless the Senate provides them with an "unacceptable" bill, which I suspect is exactly what the House members want.  Their only options are stalemate or defeat, so stalemate looks pretty good. 

Posted by: pep at November 11, 2009 01:03 PM (DZyVK)

73 Secession, nah.  Certain state govt's holding back sending in fed tax dollars from state worker paychecks and encouraging businesses to do it also, a definite slight possibility.  The ensuing funding battle would be interesting.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 11, 2009 01:04 PM (DIYmd)

74
I think the notion that a bad poll will contribute to the Dem's in the Senate being more apt to vote for the Health Care bill is greatly overstated.  If I remember 1994 correctly, there was an enormous amount of denial from the Dem's right up until about one week before the election.  And, as someone pointed out above, not all Senators are up for election in this cycle  (usually one third are up) so that will not be a factor for them.  Besides, it is difficult for any Washington career politician to believe in anything other than their supreme indispensablilty.  Face it, the voters really NEED them in Washington!  As my grandpappy used to say, the graveyard is full of indispensable men.

Posted by: Hughie at November 11, 2009 01:06 PM (KAa2W)

75 *Quite apart from the fact that the 2nd ID would roll on any state that secedes within a week of the declaration of secession.

Posted by: joncelli at November 11, 2009 12:14 PM (RD7QR)

I'm not arguing for secession in any form, but based on the last twenty years or so of American and European foreign policy, wouldn't it be extremely difficult for the American government to violently put down a legitimately popular secession movement? 

American states have a much greater claim to this right then Kosovo, for example. And I would expect that all of Obama's new "allies" would support anything that weakened the US...

Posted by: 18-1 at November 11, 2009 01:12 PM (7BU4a)

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Posted by: Elmew Fudd at November 11, 2009 01:12 PM (qP2BK)

77 Consider: If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway, and realize that there's mostly nothing you can do about that (it's the economy, stupid), does that make you shrink from passing big liberal legislation your party has agitated for for decades, or does that give you the courage and serenity of a man on death row who just exhausted his final appeal?

As a party, 'they' as in Nanch and Harry are probably more inclined to keep pushing lemmings odd the cliff.  The thing is when a blowout looks likely, the individual congresscriters all get the idea that maybe by being less (D), just maybe they can save him/herself and the blowout will be all those other guys that are way more crazy than him/her.

Sorry if this has been covered.

Posted by: Methos at November 11, 2009 01:15 PM (rzT1s)

78

"Here's the downside: This poll, if confirmed, may actually make it more likely, not less, that ObamaCare passes."

I've got to think that if a blowout looks likely, it becomes every man for himself. 

As a party, if they were some giant, single-celled organism, maybe this would be right.  But they're not, and every member of Congress that finds himself in trouble over this is going to bail and go his own way.  I can't imagine any of them saying, "Gee, things are going down in flames, I'm going to take one for the team here."

Instead, they're going to say, "Screw this crapfest... Obamacare?  Hells no!  I didn't like that from the begining!"

Almost down to the man, they're selfish and in it for the power and prestige.  None of them are prepared to see it go for some far-flung ideal.  They won't go down without some biting and scratching. 

Posted by: 12thMonkey at November 11, 2009 01:45 PM (fZzaW)

79 Secession, nah.  Certain state govt's holding back sending in fed tax dollars from state worker paychecks and encouraging businesses to do it also, a definite slight possibility.  The ensuing funding battle would be interesting.
Guy Fawkes


Guy,
I do agree that the first shot of the next civil war look more like withholding federal  tax revenue collected by the states while encouraging/authorizing businesses and individuals to do the same. Then  the Congress with withhold its constitutionally mandated responsibilities from the state(s). Once the contract of the Constitution is abrogated by both parties, the contract is void. Lincoln effectively kept up the Union's obligation to the seceding states by still allowing representation in congress, etc. When teh Won chooses to "rule" rather the govern, he'll manage to void the contract with his Chicago style politics.

OK, maybe I am just engaging in wishful thinking. Secession is in my blood. What can I say?

Posted by: Big Daddy at November 11, 2009 01:47 PM (pOcKt)

80 The loony left leadership are mostly in safe seats.  They will fight to the last blue dog if that's what it takes. 

Posted by: toby928 at November 11, 2009 01:54 PM (PD1tk)

81 Fat frakking lot of difference it made then, or will make now.

Posted by: Ken at November 11, 2009 02:09 PM (rQI8i)

82 Add + 10% for it being Gallup.

Posted by: Vic at November 11, 2009 02:23 PM (CDUiN)

83 Gallup?  More like GULP!

Posted by: Moron Pundit at November 11, 2009 02:58 PM (GC5S2)

84 On behalf of the GOP, I'd like to thank Teh Obamessiah and his disciples for scaring the crap out of American voters and taking all their money. Vote Republican, and at the least you will get some people will NOT do what the current administration is trying to do.

Posted by: exdem13 at November 11, 2009 07:21 PM (lYKj1)

85
> This poll, if confirmed, may actually make it more likely, not less, that ObamaCare passes.

Consider: If you are 90% sure you are headed for a midterm blowout almost as bad as 1994 anyway ...


Yeah, the Kamikaze option that I'm worried about. On the other hand... if they do it because they expect a blowout, they might increase the margin of the blowout so much that reversal/repeal of the health thing could be possible. Much easier to do it in 2011 than 2021!

Wouldn't Obama just veto any such action? If there was a mega-blowout in 2010, he might not veto thinking a re-election was still possible in 2012.

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