Live From NY-23 UPDATED

You can follow the returns here. Thanks to Slu for that.

The Saranac Hotel is the sight of what Hoffman supporters across the country are hoping will be the culmination of a very unlikely 6 week campaign that has turned the Republican party upside down.

As you aw from one of the videos earlier, Hoffman isn't exactly a product of the Tea-Party movement but the timing was certainly fortuitous for both.

I just spoke with a gentleman named Richard Cerminara, a local financial adviser, who has known and worked with Doug Hoffman for 20 years or so. He said this was the first time he's ever been motivated to take part in a campaign and while his friendship with Hoffman certainly helped, he's definitely frustrated by what's going on in DC.

Hoffman isn't exactly out of central casting for someone who is setting off a political tsunami (though I guess in a way he is) so I asked Cerminara to tell me something we don't know about Hoffman, something fun. He laughed and said what you see is pretty much what there is. He did say that Hoffman introduced him to his wife over 10 years ago, so he's a decent matchmaker if nothing else.

I also spoke to a gentleman named Elon Baker (full disclosure, we were friends years ago and just ran into each other here after over, I don't know, 10 years). He's never worked on a campaign before but left his home at 3:30 this morning to be here by 7 to phone bank all day.

Like Cerminara, he's never worked on a campaign before but was motivated by a desire to see the crazy spending that we've all seen out of DC.

I know you can't extrapolate too much out of two volunteers (though I spoke to others earlier and got the same feeling) who are obviously partial to Hoffman but sometimes these things look one way from a distance but when you get up close they appear to be something entirely different.

I don't get that sense with the Hoffman campaign. Yes, there are some big time state operatives who are board but for the most part, this is the campaign it looked like from a distance.

UPDATE:

I spoke briefly with NYS Conservative Party Chair Mike Long. He's optimistic about the results from what he's heard thus far. He also made it clear that this wasn't a Conservative/RINO issue. Dede was way beyond RINO.

I asked him what the party's position was moving forward, is 3rd party the way to go or working with the GOP a better option. His position is cooperation where possible but they will run their own candidates when they have to.

According to Long, If he's elected, Hoffman will be the second candidate to win on the Conservative party line, James Buckley was the first (he may have been talking about at the federal level).

Below, scenes from the scene.

podium.jpg

cameramikejungle.jpg

melonhead.jpg

crowdmilling.jpg

Posted by: DrewM. at 09:15 PM



Comments

1 Where's the open bottles of Valu-Rite?

Posted by: PA Cat at November 03, 2009 09:18 PM (WKAth)

2 What is going on with the vote count??? There was a court order?? Anyone know?

Posted by: Carmelita at November 03, 2009 09:18 PM (gq1Fx)

3
Bam!

Posted by: Tweet O'Rly? at November 03, 2009 09:19 PM (v77ig)

4 Drew, do they have balloons?


Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 09:19 PM (9Wv2j)

5
in b4 Republican Dirty Tricks!

Posted by: Tweet O'Rly? at November 03, 2009 09:20 PM (v77ig)

6 Hoffman was just on Hannity. He is a good guy politically to be sure, but he needs to work on his public speaking. He's probably still a little nervous...

Posted by: GregInSeattle at November 03, 2009 09:20 PM (B5cM9)

7 Any bears hanging around?

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 03, 2009 09:20 PM (QX1Fy)

8 Fox is reporting that Hoffman is down 12 votes to Owens!

Posted by: Smapty at November 03, 2009 09:21 PM (bAySe)

9 I hope the Visitors didn't send one of those deadly floating disco balls to this.

Posted by: RicardoVerde at November 03, 2009 09:22 PM (PBTsv)

10 Elon spelled backward is Nole.

Posted by: mesablue at November 03, 2009 09:22 PM (U5a3G)

11 Filed under You Can't Make It Up, Shit the White House can't be bothered watching these results tonight. Tapper tweet indicates he's hanging out with NBC's "The Biggest Loser"
Per TapTweet: NBC's "The Biggest Loser" is at the White House tonight. This is not a joke.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at November 03, 2009 09:23 PM (QXN+m)

12 "Go balloons. Go balloons. I don't see anything happening . . . . Go, confetti. Go, confetti . . . What the f--- are you guys doing up there? We want more balloons coming down. More balloons. More balloons."

Posted by: Zombie Kerry 2004 Campaign at November 03, 2009 09:24 PM (WKAth)

13 Are they still counting the votes the Dims still stuffing the ballot boxes?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 09:24 PM (pbnf9)

14 Hope you are having fun DrewM.

I'm glad V is more important than watching the election results. Oh and more important than an Afghan decision.

Posted by: Trish at November 03, 2009 09:25 PM (0U5Kd)

15 "I quit."

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

Posted by: Sarah Palin at November 03, 2009 09:26 PM (j+aj1)

16 "The Biggest Loser" is at the White House tonight. This is not a joke.
Isn't that true every night?

Posted by: In Exile at November 03, 2009 09:26 PM (Dw6L6)

17 Drew, thanks for going to all this trouble. Do you have any sense from Hoffman's people how they are doing?

Posted by: joncelli at November 03, 2009 09:27 PM (vPMF5)

18 Drudge is reporting that Sasquatch took the girls to see Miley Cyrus tonight.

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 09:28 PM (9Wv2j)

19 Geraghty has NY close but still for Hoffman
Newark crawling with purple SEIU "turning out" numbers in Newark
Who new that purple would be the new brown.
Wonder if the black panthers came over to Jersey from Philly? They know they won't be prosecuted.

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 09:29 PM (Z/wYm)

20 ""The Biggest Loser" is at the White House tonight. This is not a joke.

Isn't that true every night?"


Thread winner.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 09:30 PM (HAdov)

21 Anybody else watching the Luntz cluster on fox?
The whole thing got hijacked by a rev wright lookalike with an obama axe to grind. Luntz and the other people were too scared to tell him to stfu and let other people talk. Racists, you know.

Posted by: rickinstl at November 03, 2009 09:31 PM (SawXY)

22 Hours after urging reporters not to draw sweeping conclusions from
Tuesday's gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia, White
House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs told POLITICO President Obama wasn't
even keeping an eye on the results.

"He's not watching returns," Gibbs said.

Right now Barry has got his eyes shut, fingers in his ears and shouting lalalalala "I can't hear you!!!"

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 09:31 PM (pbnf9)

23 Christie Wins Gloucester County
This looks big: With 100 percent of precincts reported, Republican Chris Christie has won New Jersey's Gloucester County by about 2800 votes, a county that Christie Whitman lost in her 1997 reelection bid.
Obama carried this county by 12 percent last year.

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 09:32 PM (Z/wYm)

24 Drew,
Found a drink yet? Any food? Babes? Upstate babes I hear are pretty er, loose.
Old hotel looks nicer than earlier pictures from rest stop.

Posted by: Kemp at November 03, 2009 09:32 PM (2+9Yx)

25 22
So do Gibbs, the Democrat Party, and the MSM.

Oh and the Republican establishment.

Posted by: Mr. Pink at November 03, 2009 09:33 PM (m5aSu)

26 To top it off Barry just ran out of smokes and blow.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 09:34 PM (j+aj1)

27 What's going on in NY? Fox, CNN and Drudge have nothing.

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 09:34 PM (P/D33)

28 "Anybody else watching the Luntz cluster on fox?"

Mute button, that is the most worthless segment on fox, other than Smith failing to be a newscaster.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 09:34 PM (HAdov)

29 NY-23 675-601 bad guys less than 1% in

Posted by: Just Another Poster at November 03, 2009 09:35 PM (HAdov)

30 I looked for a site for NY like the one Ace linked for VA that shows results as precincts report but it looks like NY BOE doesn't do live updates. Anybody else have better luck?

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 09:35 PM (pZ47R)

31 Hey Scuzzy Fuzzy, how's my ass taste?

Posted by: Hoffman at November 03, 2009 09:36 PM (sGaoh)

32 The Biggest Loser" is at the White House tonight. This is not a joke.
Isn't that true every night?
Posted by: In Exile at November 03, 2009 09:26 PM (Dw6L6)
Except for date nights.

Posted by: Bill R. at November 03, 2009 09:36 PM (EhlQq)

33 Just Another Poster: NY-23 675-601 bad guys less than 1% in

Where are you getting that? Link?

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 09:36 PM (P/D33)

34 #33

Fox crawler.

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 09:37 PM (pZ47R)

35 My uncle dabbled in upper NY State politics. Mos Isley ain't nuthin.

He said he never saw such a pile of serpents in his whole life.

Posted by: eman at November 03, 2009 09:38 PM (j+aj1)

36 @23 dagny
Christie Wins Gloucester County
This looks big: With 100 percent
of precincts reported, Republican Chris Christie has won New Jersey's
Gloucester County by about 2800 votes, a county that Christie Whitman
lost in her 1997 reelection bid.
Obama carried this county by 12 percent last year.Credit where credit is due. That's quoted from Geraghty at the Campaign Spot.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 09:39 PM (XIXhw)

37 Hey Owens, ask Scuzzy Fuzzy how my ass tastes.

Posted by: Hoffman at November 03, 2009 09:39 PM (sGaoh)

38 Slublog sent this NY 23 count site

Posted by: Dave in Texas at November 03, 2009 09:40 PM (Wh0W+)

39 Went to the Albany Project for results, but they are crashed. Too many outsiders interfering, just like Newt said!

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 09:40 PM (P/D33)

40 We're just counting coup tonight. We will be taking scalps for the next twenty years.

Posted by: Honest Injun at November 03, 2009 09:40 PM (WNVVB)

41 Some idiots still voted for Scuzzy? Wasn't the Dim liberal enough for them?

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 09:42 PM (pbnf9)

42 The Other McCain reports: 9:20 p.m.: Watertown office of Hoffman campaign
reports "strong" Republican turnout. GOP turnout in Plattsburgh also
reported strong, lower turnout for Democrats.

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 09:42 PM (P/D33)

43 #38

Thanks, Dave.

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 09:43 PM (pZ47R)

44 Thank god For the time change I voted an extra seven times..no, wait, those are beer cans.

Posted by: mghorning at November 03, 2009 09:44 PM (WNVVB)

45 GOP turnout in Plattsburgh

I was arrested once by the Air Force in Plattsburgh. Bomber guys have no sense of humor.

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 09:47 PM (P/D33)

46 Helll, I was bornat Plattsburgh AFB.

Posted by: Dale in San Antonio (Not Dave!) at November 03, 2009 09:47 PM (sXEVG)

47 Sas-squatch?
What's squatch?
I'm thinking PGiS has an answer.

Posted by: mghorning at November 03, 2009 09:47 PM (WNVVB)

48 This race is going to come in slow, evidently. It is, after all, a district race that will take more time for the results to come in. Unlike the governor races, which come in quickly.

Patience is needed for us. And some alcoholic substances.


Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 09:48 PM (92zkk)

49 Some idiots still voted for Scuzzy? Wasn't the Dim liberal enough for them?


Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 09:42 PM (pbnf9)
--I think they were early voters who, ahem, mailed it in. . . .

Posted by: logprof at November 03, 2009 09:49 PM (I3Udb)

50 Trish #14, V was on before anything crucial was decided. I know because in Houston, ABC kept running tags of "proposition 42, FOR 55%, AGAINST 44%, with 1% reporting". And they ran that over the subtitles.
Not to say that Virginia doesn't matter, but it was never in doubt, and so not worth skipping a classic pilot episode for.

Posted by: Zimriel at November 03, 2009 09:49 PM (rtzHA)

51 It's actually the "site", not the "sight" of Hoffman's.... whatever

The word "website" has everyone over-correcting these days :p
site still means a place, a sight is something you see

"I saw a sight at the site."

Posted by: ms. docweasel at November 03, 2009 09:50 PM (kgwdA)

52 NYTimes link for upstate races.

Posted by: obama is a traitor at November 03, 2009 09:51 PM (Qt4Y7)

53 #51

There/their

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 09:51 PM (pZ47R)

54 I shot a man in Plattburgh.

Just to watch him die.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at November 03, 2009 09:52 PM (Wh0W+)

55 Helll, I was bornat Plattsburgh AFB.

Actually, they were very nice. And they didn't call it an "arrest" per se. I was "detained". I and the rest of us Navy guys had to pay for damages to their O club. We were doing carrier landings on their tables. Apparently there was some senior officer in the dining room trying to have dinner with his wife.

The LCDR in charge of our little trip was subsequently passed over for promotion. Afterward, cross country trips were limited to no more than 2 aircraft per trip.

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 09:52 PM (P/D33)

56 I'm getting a little nervous about Hoffman. I thought this was supposed to be a blowout?

Posted by: Trish at November 03, 2009 09:53 PM (0U5Kd)

57 Somebody cruise th NJ results. I'm on dial up, boycotting the NFL and drinking alot.
Thanks in advance.

Posted by: mghorning at November 03, 2009 09:53 PM (WNVVB)

58 mg: 50-44 with 60% reporting

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 09:55 PM (9Wv2j)

59 @36 It was a continuation of previous post where I said Geraghty and I had credited him in that comment too before I lost the comment the first time due to a pop up interruption.
So
No shit sherlock. See I just know these things.

Posted by: dagny at November 03, 2009 09:55 PM (Z/wYm)

60 @54 "I shot a man in Plattburgh. Just to watch him die."

I shot the sheriff, but I did not kill the deputy.

Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 09:55 PM (92zkk)

61 Bill Owens (Dem) 1,045
Dede Scozzafava (GOP) 15
D. Hoffman (Con) 890

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 03, 2009 09:55 PM (eR37w)

62 I'm getting a little nervous about Hoffman. I thought this was supposed to be a blowout?

No, Hoffman has always said it will be close.

The blowout is in VA,

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 03, 2009 09:57 PM (eR37w)

63 Owens: 8697
Hoffman: 8052
Scoz: 938

73 precincts reporting (of 606)

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 09:57 PM (9Wv2j)

64 Bill Owens (Dem) 9,342
Dede Scozzafava (GOP) 968
D. Hoffman (Con) 8.457

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 03, 2009 09:58 PM (eR37w)

65 The first thing Hoffman should say after victory is,
"I Won."

Posted by: mghorning at November 03, 2009 09:58 PM (WNVVB)

66 Per NYT site results:

Owens 49, Hoffman 45, 12 pct reporting @ 9:59.

Posted by: Retread at November 03, 2009 09:59 PM (pZ47R)

67 damn it looks like Hoffman is losing. Anyone know anything about the Fulton, Hamilton, Oneida and St Lawrence reigons. They have yet to report. I hope they are strong republican districts.

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:00 PM (bftbi)

68 It looks like Hoffman is losing by about the number of votes that went to Scozzafava. Favre.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at November 03, 2009 10:02 PM (OkT2m)

69 that scrunt may cost Hoffman the election. He is down by the exact amount of her vote

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:02 PM (bftbi)

70 shit
shit
shit
shit

Posted by: Ben at November 03, 2009 10:03 PM (bftbi)

71 A house seat represents about 650,000 people let's see what happens.

Posted by: mghorning at November 03, 2009 10:04 PM (WNVVB)

72 oh well, the Hoffman race was fun while it lasted

Posted by: OregonMuse at November 03, 2009 10:04 PM (eR37w)

73 More results please.

Posted by: mghorning at November 03, 2009 10:05 PM (WNVVB)

74 Hey, let's all remember that $900,000 the NRCC poured in there to keep Hoffman from winning this thing. What are the odds they'd finally be effective at something? Bastards.

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 10:06 PM (9Wv2j)

75 @59 - I'll settle for an "oops"

Any guesses/knowledge on how many votes Christie would need to win by to avoid recount fraud (redundant, I know)? There are a couple thousand absentee ballots, other than that? I won't hold my breath for anything happening to the purple shirts dagny mentioned, so I'm sure they're pulling out the stops.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 10:07 PM (XIXhw)

76 Too soon to give up.

Posted by: obama is a traitor at November 03, 2009 10:07 PM (Qt4Y7)

77 # 38, Posted by: Dave in Texas at November 03, 2009 09:40 PM (Wh0W+)
The link Dave provides updates pretty frequently.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 03, 2009 10:08 PM (pbnf9)

78 Owens 51%
Hoffman 43%
112/606 precincts counted

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 10:08 PM (P/D33)

79 Christie is ahead of Corzine by almost 100,000 votes with 71% reporting.

Posted by: obama is a traitor at November 03, 2009 10:09 PM (Qt4Y7)

80 Christie is holding steady at 50-44 with 71% reporting

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 10:09 PM (9Wv2j)

81 so much for Glenn watching his dream come true, next time we get a better rep nominee

Posted by: YRM at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (xNw7B)

82 Erick Erickson is tweeting that The Hill says it goes to Hoffman.

Erick Erickson is from RedState, and I cannot link to the Twitter account, as I shamefully haven't learned how to do the tiny url thing.


Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 10:10 PM (92zkk)

83 Christi 50%
Corzine 44%
44% precincts counted

From CNN

Posted by: oLD gUY at November 03, 2009 10:11 PM (P/D33)

84 Owens lead is essentially widening with 125 precincts in, as Scozzafaloasdflkj is getting more votes that would presumably go to Hoffman. It's early, but 8% is a bad margin.

I say even a loss was worth it. I'll just have to gird myself for the "We could have won" recriminations from the Frum Forumites, the "Republican civil war causes implosion of the party" from the msm and all that.

Posted by: whatever at November 03, 2009 10:12 PM (XIXhw)

85
A house seat represents about 650,000 people let's see what happens.

The NYTimes page is showing about 30,000 total votes in but "21% reporting". Does that make sense?

Posted by: obama is a traitor at November 03, 2009 10:13 PM (Qt4Y7)

86 "21% reporting". Does that make sense?
21% of precincts

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 10:14 PM (9Wv2j)

87 If Hoffman loses and the margin of loss is corresponding to the number of votes that Scozzafava gets, expect that she will get a nice job with the Obama admin, or her hubby will.

Regardless, she will be finished as far as local politics in upstate NY.

Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 10:15 PM (92zkk)

88 82
Erick Erickson is tweeting that The Hill says it goes to Hoffman.

Some unusual precincts must be reporting then.

Posted by: AmishDude at November 03, 2009 10:16 PM (T0NGe)

89 Rove on FOX saying that NY-23 won't be known until morning. Some districts have said they won't report until the morning.

Posted by: Tami at November 03, 2009 10:18 PM (VuLos)

90 Some unusual precincts must be reporting then.

Maybe small ones.

Posted by: obama is a traitor at November 03, 2009 10:18 PM (Qt4Y7)

91 Some districts have said they won't report until the morning.

Lazy bastards.

Posted by: obama is a traitor at November 03, 2009 10:19 PM (Qt4Y7)

92 Some unusual precincts must be reporting then.

I sure as hell hope so. The trifecta would be so sweet tonight.

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 10:22 PM (9Wv2j)

93 Fox calls Christie as the winner of NJ - that is 2 out of 3.

Come on, Hoffman! Let's pull this baby out!

Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 10:23 PM (92zkk)

94 Rove was on Fox a few minutes ago thinking Hoffman wins. Agree or disagree with Karl Rove, I will give him credit for one thing: the man can tell you the voting history of a single precint in St. Clair County, Illinois within .1% for the past 3 elections.
So, do not despair.

Posted by: Mallamutt at November 03, 2009 10:34 PM (V9SYy)

95 Hoffman just gained a little ground.

Posted by: Peaches at November 03, 2009 10:35 PM (9Wv2j)

96 Christie951,000 Corzine852,30381% reporting
http://tinyurl.com/yjnybch



Posted by: YoMamma at November 03, 2009 10:36 PM (H2caA)

97 Hoffman catching up fast now - it's 49 - 46. (as per Hot Air)

Posted by: Intrepid at November 03, 2009 10:37 PM (92zkk)

98 Hey, my city in CT elected a Republican mayor! The incumbent (D) has been in office for 14 years and didn't run for reelection.

Posted by: Tami at November 03, 2009 10:40 PM (VuLos)

99 Owens has the 23rd. Majority of unreporting precincts are in St. Lawrence County, traditionally fairly liberal and went heavily for Obama. Just not enough votes left anywhere else to offset the advantage Owens has coming in from St. Lawrence.

Posted by: Sean at November 03, 2009 11:14 PM (N8h0c)

100 Absentee ballots won't make the difference in NY-23rd. Most probably mailed back before anyone even knew who Hoffman was. Majority of conservative absentee votes will have gone for Scozzafava.

After absentees are tallied, the symbolic victory will be that the Dem will have won with less than 50% of the vote, probably 45-47%, with about 6-8% going to Scozzafava.

Posted by: Sean at November 03, 2009 11:22 PM (N8h0c)

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John Kerry's "Plan" Causes Surrender of Moqtada al-Sadr's Militia
World Muslim Leaders Apologize for Nick Berg's Beheading
Michael Moore Goes on Lunchtime Manhattan Death-Spree
Milestone: Oliver Willis Posts 400th "Fake News Article" Referencing Britney Spears
Liberal Economists Rue a "New Decade of Greed"
Artificial Insouciance: Maureen Dowd's Word Processor Revolts Against Her Numbing Imbecility
Intelligence Officials Eye Blogs for Tips
They Done Found Us Out, Cletus: Intrepid Internet Detective Figures Out Our Master Plan
Shock: Josh Marshall Almost Mentions Sarin Discovery in Iraq
Leather-Clad Biker Freaks Terrorize Australian Town
When Clinton Was President, Torture Was Cool
What Wonkette Means When She Explains What Tina Brown Means
Wonkette's Stand-Up Act
Wankette HQ Gay-Rumors Du Jour
Here's What's Bugging Me: Goose and Slider
My Own Micah Wright Style Confession of Dishonesty
Outraged "Conservatives" React to the FMA
An On-Line Impression of Dennis Miller Having Sex with a Kodiak Bear
The Story the Rightwing Media Refuses to Report!
Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat