Weak-Sample Club for Growth Poll Puts Hoffman Ahead

I say "weak" because they polled 300 people, and I thought that 400 was basically the industry minimum for reliable numbers.

The poll of 300 likely voters, conducted October 24-25, 2009, shows Conservative Doug Hoffman at 31.3%, Democrat Bill Owens at 27.0%, Republican Dede Scozzafava at 19.7%, and 22% undecided. The pollís margin of error is +/- 5.66%. No information was provided about any of the candidates prior to the ballot question.

And it's not a poll by a disinterested third party. Club for Growth is running ads for Hoffman.

Still. Not bad news, certainly.

Context: The Hill notes the last Club-for-Growth poll had it as a 3-way tie, when no other polls showed Hoffman in such a strong position.

Just tryin' to keep it real.

Posted by: Ace at 12:57 PM



Comments

1 Small sample but I like the trend.

Posted by: muggedbyreality at October 26, 2009 12:59 PM (eUGzR)

2 The key stat is 22% undecided.

Posted by: Reiver at October 26, 2009 01:01 PM (Yi1Sk)

3 I think Scozzafava has had too many tacos.

Posted by: B Greasy at October 26, 2009 01:01 PM (1B81L)

4 Still, it should be given no more credence than the DailyKOS poll that everyone is using as the standard right now (which was before Sarah endorsed Hoffman).

It will be interesting to see a real poll, but looks like the momentum is with Hoffman. Even if he doesn't ultimately pull it out, I would love to have him get more votes than Dede.

Posted by: SalAOR at October 26, 2009 01:02 PM (PEQte)

5 It would be "Sweet" if he wins, just imagine how many heads will explode in the MSM.

Posted by: Paladin at October 26, 2009 01:03 PM (bWB5j)

6 Looks like they are playing the CBS game of polling. Hey look we have the results we want, no need to keep calling. Either way Hoffman gets the headlines and it shows he can win. Tremendously important for a 3rd party candidate. This poll alone is worth a few points for Hoffman.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at October 26, 2009 01:03 PM (HAdov)

7 Push Poll? Who cares. The leftist scumbags do it to us on a daily basis. Get the perception out that Hoffman is the right choice.

Posted by: MRI at October 26, 2009 01:05 PM (aVQo/)

8 Given typical turnouts in these things are pitiful, the numbers look pretty good for Hoffman. Notice the combined R + C > 50% versus 27% for D. The Mediacrats are in free-fall all over the country. A rainstorm of Skittles followed by a unicorn leaping over a pot-of-gold at the end of a rainbow would be about the only thing to save these idiots next fall. It could be worse than 1974 in reverse.

Posted by: Fresh Air at October 26, 2009 01:05 PM (B3fNz)

9 Indeed, that's welcome news.And at least the source is not from an organization known for lies. That's one of the best things about being on the Right - we don't have to lie or make up stuff. I'd put more faith in the validity of this poll than in most of the others we are so constantly bombarded with.

Posted by: Reactionary at October 26, 2009 01:06 PM (P+HSn)

10 hoffman should dump a lot of his monies in gotv, while this poll is a little suspect, me likey lotz.

Posted by: weewilly at October 26, 2009 01:07 PM (iBHcm)

11 Who else is polling in the district?

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2009 01:08 PM (1fwTy)

12 The methodology for the poll can be found here: LINK

Republicans seem to be over-sampled - 48% registered GOP 36% Dem

The 300 person sample is of respondents replying that they are "very likely" to vote

But with the over-sampling of GOP-registered voters, the real story is the preference of GOP voters for Hoffman over Scozzafava

Posted by: mrp at October 26, 2009 01:08 PM (HjPtV)

13 Question: Are you willing to hand over one, two, ten seats to the Democrats in this sort of race, in order to send the message to the RNC that we're DONE with squishy Republicans we agree with only50% of the time?

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2009 01:08 PM (e8YaH)

14 Let me be clear...
This is obviously a racist polling organization, and a racist poll, polling for a racist of some sort.

Posted by: B.O. at October 26, 2009 01:09 PM (DYJjQ)

15 We need McDonnell + Hoffman + Christie and Dems will be on the run. There is a reason they are pushing for healthcare now, they are scared they lose all 3 and a few votes in Congress. Virginia is already lost and it is a blood bath for Dems there all the way down the ballot. If election day goes really well they pickup a special election in California, but that is a huge long shot.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at October 26, 2009 01:10 PM (HAdov)

16 I named my dog after myself.

Posted by: B.O. at October 26, 2009 01:10 PM (+sBB4)

17 Well this is timely since Rush's replacement, a very poor replacement at that, was just discussing this for an hour. The guy thinks republicans need to be centrist and that Hoffman can't win.

Posted by: curious at October 26, 2009 01:10 PM (p302b)

18 Newt hates us because we are beginning to understand him.

Posted by: TexasJew at October 26, 2009 01:12 PM (j4nwi)

19 I will preach on the evils of the NY23 people, and how they are destroying the Progressive Environment. And a short powerpoint.
We must put an end to this conservative warming!
Carbo Delenda Est !

Posted by: Al Gore The Elder at October 26, 2009 01:13 PM (QZFcc)

20
I named my dog after myself.

Posted by: B.O. at October 26, 2009 01:10 PM (+sBB4)
I named my ugly scrunt after me.

Posted by: Dede the dog at October 26, 2009 01:13 PM (5aa4z)

21 Wow. If a third party could pull off a victory by running a real conservative candidate, well, that makes me want to dip a certain part of my nanatomy into it. Repeatedly.
Not to mention the bitch-slap it'd be to Newt the Clueless.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 26, 2009 01:14 PM (ZGhSv)

22 13
Question: Are you willing to hand over one, two, ten seats to the Democrats in this sort of race, in order to send the message to the RNC that we're DONE with squishy Republicans we agree with only50% of the time?
Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2009 01:08 PM (e8YaH)
Yes. And the number is not 50%, it's more like 19%.Lower than Blue Dog Democrats, btw...

Posted by: TexasJew at October 26, 2009 01:15 PM (j4nwi)

23 I am willing to send a message to the GOP on this particular race. This is a republican district, for pete's sake, and if the dem ends up winning it doesn't help Pelosi much for long, Hoffman can win next year when we need him. Scozzi will likely switch parties anyway, remember Specter anyone?

Posted by: send the message at October 26, 2009 01:15 PM (DIYmd)

24 Well if people can believe the DailyKos2000 polls then i guess we can believe the Club for Growth.
Also I have a question, how many people live in NY 23? I thought it was the percentage of the population polled with made a poll acceptable

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 01:16 PM (wuv1c)

25 BTW - Sample size only impacts that margain of error. Normally, you see a MOE around 4%. This one was 5.66, which is unusually high. And, coupled with the Club for Growth's rooting interest in the outcome, makes it highly suspect.
Don't get me wrong, yes, I like the result. But, small sample size, high MOE and obvious rooting interest makes it suspect.

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 26, 2009 01:16 PM (V9SYy)

26 It would be "Sweet" if he wins, just imagine how many heads will explode in the MSM RNC

FIFY

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 01:16 PM (wuv1c)

27 Weak-Sample
RINO!!

Posted by: Captain Courage at October 26, 2009 01:17 PM (1Y3Fy)

28 Like the drudge headline, Newt to run in 2012? He became corrupted just like almost everyone else when he went to Washington. He needs to do a complete 180 on Dede before the election (and before the result is a foregone conclusion) if wants to have any credibility with me.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at October 26, 2009 01:17 PM (HAdov)

29 ...squishy Republicans liberals we agree with only50% <10% of the time...

Scozzofava is particularly egregious in her non-conservatism.

Also, why is it that we can't get (via the RNC) a modicum of sophistication in our political strategy? If you think a hardcore conservative can't win, cloak him in a veneer of centrism so that if/when he wins he votes conservative down the line. The lefties have legit communists running around congress sabotaging the bedrock of the nation and we have to settle for squishes?

Posted by: MRI at October 26, 2009 01:17 PM (aVQo/)

30 Republicans seem to be over-sampled - 48% registered GOP 36% Dem
i think the district is disproportionately Republican, so an over sampling of republicans would be more accurate.
Kind of like how in national polls they poll more democrats because there are more registered democrats. Unless you are CNN and decide to go 2 to 1 democrat to push healthcare

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 01:18 PM (wuv1c)

31 Rasmussen's daily tracking poll has Zero back doen to -12. I'm hoping for - 15 for Thanksgiving. Also, Rahm and the idiots, 3, keep on attacking Fox News, your doing all the good.

Posted by: maddogg at October 26, 2009 01:19 PM (OlN4e)

32 I'm behind Hoffman, I think he'll throw a monkey wrench into everything if he wins, like the Zen Master said "we'll see".

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 01:19 PM (gS9C7)

33 Question: Are you willing to hand over one, two, ten seats to the Democrats in this sort of race, in order to send the message to the RNC that we're DONE with squishy Republicans we agree with only50% of the time?
Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2009 01:08 PM (e8YaH)
Yes. This is the perfect race to send this sort of message. Even if the Dem wins it won't affect the balance of power, everyone knows a Republican tsunami is coming in 2010, and any Dem elected won't even stay long enough to get his seat warmed up.

Posted by: chemjeff at October 26, 2009 01:19 PM (PhN4p)

34 The guy thinks republicans need to be centrist and that Hoffman can't win.

(1) She isn't centrist. She isn't even a fiscal conservative, which is the "good kind" of conservative.

(2) This is a special election, the winner of which will have to turn around and run in 2010. If the Democrat wins, he will not get re-elected as long as the GOP has a proper primary.

(3) I am 100% for running moderate Rs in left-of-center districts, but the local GOP screwed the pooch on this one. She is not representative of the district.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2009 01:20 PM (T0NGe)

35 Question: Are you willing to hand over one, two, ten seats to the Democrats in this sort of race, in order to send the message to the RNC that we're DONE with squishy Republicans we agree with only 50% of the time?

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2009 01:08 PM

YES.

What are we handing over? It's not like we are simply in the minority and are worried about handing over seats to put the Democrats in the super-majority. They already have that. We have nothing to lose here. We're not going to take back the House or Senate anytime soon, so we can afford to stand on principle.

Besides, I don't get where people are calling Scozzofava a "squishy Moderate" or "squishy Republican". She's Left of the f'ing Democrat for crying out f'ing loud.

If the GOP is going to tell me I have to support Republicans who are more Left than Democrats, I got two words for them, and I think everyone knows what they are.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 26, 2009 01:20 PM (ObTcs)

36 Scozzofava is particularly egregious in her non-conservatism.
Hey I am too a conservative! Don't all conservatives support abortion-on-demand and gay marriage? You'd better watch yourself or I'll call the cops on you!

Posted by: Dede Scozzofava at October 26, 2009 01:21 PM (PhN4p)

37 Like the drudge headline, Newt to run in 2012?
All the way to South Carolina. When it will be over.
Newt won't win Iowa. Has a shot a New Hampshire but I havea feeling that Romney would pour a ton of money into New Hampshire this time. His campaign really need New Hampshire in 2008, and running around telling everyone he won Wyoming was not exactly a strong selling point.
Which leaves Newt fighting to South Carolina where he probably goes down.

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 26, 2009 01:21 PM (V9SYy)

38 Also, why is it that we can't get (via the RNC) a modicum of sophistication in our political strategy?

Because not even Tugg Speedman goes as full retard as the RNC does.

Posted by: alexthechick at October 26, 2009 01:21 PM (8WZWv)

39 Also, why is it that we can't get (via the RNC) a modicum of sophistication in our political strategy? If you think a hardcore conservative can't win, cloak him in a veneer of centrism so that if/when he wins he votes conservative down the line. The lefties have legit communists running around congress sabotaging the bedrock of the nation and we have to settle for squishes?

Posted by: MRI at October 26, 2009 01:17 PM

A-freaking-men.

Posted by: Michael in MI at October 26, 2009 01:21 PM (ObTcs)

40 like the Zen Master said "we'll see"

One of Philip Seymour Hoffman's finer roles. Hmm synchronicity.

Posted by: MRI at October 26, 2009 01:21 PM (aVQo/)

41 Well this is timely since Rush's replacement, a very poor replacement at that, was just discussing this for an hour. The guy thinks republicans need to be centrist and that Hoffman can't win.

I think he is being practical. In all likelihood Hoffman won't win. He is just saying there is a difference between what you want to happen and what you think will actually happen. It is kind of like rooting for your local sports team. You always want them to win and hope they will win, but that doesn't mean you actually think they can win.
I am pulling for Hoffman too, however he is a long shot, especially considering Scuzzabella is siphoning more Hoffman votes than from the Democrat.
What would be ideal is if Scrutaflava pulled hard left, siphoned off more democrats, shed more republican, thereby helping Hoffman get 38%-40% of the vote and win.

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 01:22 PM (wuv1c)

42 Question: Are you willing to hand over one, two, ten seats to the
Democrats in this sort of race, in order to send the message to the RNC
that we're DONE with squishy Republicans we agree with only50% of the
time?

Yes, even if it's 50% or 60%. When RINOs get elected, their waywardness makes it more difficult for actual conservatives to get elected. The average voter who wants a change from the Democrats says 'Sure you claim you're different, but you're in a party with Snowe and Collins, how can I believe you're not just selling me a line? Maybe I'm better off staying where I am.'

Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2009 01:22 PM (IoxPW)

43 Dede Scozzafavamales Susan Mikula look likeBrooke Shields circa 1977.

Posted by: maddow's middle finger at October 26, 2009 01:22 PM (1B81L)

44 Daily Kos/Research 2000 did a poll last week too. 600 likely voters. It found Owens as the leader. Kos has endorsed Scozzafava.

How does this "suspect party" thing work?

Kos still looks like an anti-conservative more than a Democrat.

Posted by: WTFCI at October 26, 2009 01:23 PM (GtYrq)

45 The actual dem candidate agrees more often with republicans than Scuzzi. Scuzzi victory would be the worst outcome for the GOP.

Posted by: send the message at October 26, 2009 01:23 PM (DIYmd)

46 #39 Michael in MI, other than being pro-life, just what makes this guy uber conservative; like which of his positions would disqualify him from being a centrist Democrat circa 1980? Because he's anti-bankruptcy of the federal government?

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2009 01:23 PM (1fwTy)

47 Newt won't win Iowa. Has a shot a New Hampshire but I havea feeling that Romney would pour a ton of money into New Hampshire this time. His campaign really need New Hampshire in 2008, and running around telling everyone he won Wyoming was not exactly a strong selling point.

I think New Hampshire should be stripped of its live free or die motto. In the republican primaries they always vote for the republican most likely to take away freedoms. Also they almost never vote republican in the general election, so why do they get to pick our candidate.

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 01:24 PM (wuv1c)

48 Kos still looks like an anti-conservative more than a Democrat.
He is. He's said quite plainly that he doesn't care about ideology, all he wants is to win.

Posted by: chemjeff at October 26, 2009 01:24 PM (PhN4p)

49 Once again, no strippers.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at October 26, 2009 01:24 PM (muUqs)

50 40,

One of my favorite movies, he epitomizes the reg. CIA operative, no BS just kill the enemy no matter what it takes.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 01:25 PM (gS9C7)

51 Also I have a question, how many people live in NY 23? I thought it was
the percentage of the population polled with made a poll acceptable

Actually, no. As long as the sample is truly random, the population doesn't matter.

http://tinyurl.com/ycefxu

The way to look at it is that each person polled is a trial, the more people you poll, the more trials you conduct and the trials are independent so they will give a better picture, regardless of the population size.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2009 01:25 PM (T0NGe)

52 Newt can run. I'm sure South Carolina would love the ad money he'd sink into them.

Then he'd finish 6th. Man resigned his own district in GA, right before you could win any office in the State with an -R behind your name.

Posted by: Techie at October 26, 2009 01:26 PM (cxW4X)

53 How does this "suspect party" thing work?
Most interested parties do not release polls unless the polls show what they want. In the past, national organizations and campaigns have been known to do 2 or 3 polls before getting one they like and releasing those. You never hear about the othere 2 or 3 polls they did before the one they release.
Kos is suspect not just because of bias, but also they tend to oversample "progressives" because they believe the country is more progressive than what every other pollster believes. Kos has also teamed up with a democratic polling firm, so its a double whammy.
Kos does announce, in advance, of when they will release polls (not necessarily unusual) in, what I suspect, is an attempt to slap some credibility on their polls. See, here is when we are releasing the poll - so its believable now.
Still, Kos ranked 16 out of 17 polling firms in the 2008 cycle.

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 26, 2009 01:27 PM (V9SYy)

54 The Hoffman campaign is running a great radio ad based on the recent 911 call debacle:

http://www.doughoffmanforcongress.com/files/Hoffman911.mp3

Posted by: mrp at October 26, 2009 01:28 PM (HjPtV)

55 I thought 2008 illustrated how fuxxored the entire primary process is quite nicely.

Posted by: Techie at October 26, 2009 01:28 PM (cxW4X)

56 He's said quite plainly that he doesn't care about ideology, all he wants is to win.

Yea, but here is Kos backing Scozzafava for what reason? Why wouldn't he endorse Owens? How would a Scozzafava win help Kos?

Posted by: WTFCI at October 26, 2009 01:28 PM (GtYrq)

57 Once again, no strippers.
That sucks!

Posted by: maddow's middle finger at October 26, 2009 01:28 PM (1B81L)

58 Is Haley Barbour completely off of the radar?

Posted by: Jean at October 26, 2009 01:28 PM (5ddCw)

59 Newt for Prez? I'm sorry, he is last century's news. He's revealed himself to be a big-government conservative. I'd vote for Huckabee over Newt. At least with the Huckster you know exactly what you're getting. With Newt, he talks a good game but he ultimately sides with the statists.

Posted by: chemjeff at October 26, 2009 01:28 PM (PhN4p)

60 Just tryin' to keep it real.

Reality is over-rated.

Posted by: Moamer Kadhafi at October 26, 2009 01:29 PM (muUqs)

61 Yea, but here is Kos backing Scozzafava for what reason? Why wouldn't he endorse Owens? How would a Scozzafava win help Kos?
It's strategic. It's a center-right district.

Posted by: chemjeff at October 26, 2009 01:29 PM (PhN4p)

62 Haley Barbour? No. He is old news. We need some new faces.

Posted by: chemjeff at October 26, 2009 01:30 PM (PhN4p)

63 Yea, but here is Kos backing Scozzafava for what reason?
Markos has said Scozzafava is more "progressive" than Owens. I hate the term "progressive", but since I am quoting Markos, I will use the term he applies to himself.

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 26, 2009 01:31 PM (V9SYy)

64 I'm of the mind that real, bona-fide fiscalconservatism is a winner every time it's tried, but I'll be damned if I could point to one lately, except Sarah.
True conservatism is the big tent. Standing on principle is the one thing that can unite a lot of folks, regardless of ethnicity. Pocketbooks know no race.
I'm still waiting for some adventurous GOP'ers to try putting up a candidate with a laundry list of conservative things to accomplish like domestic oildrilling, real tax cuts for businesses and a rollback of some of the dumber environmental regulations just to see how it flies with the public. Pick a nobody who really believes in the agenda and can articulate it in kitchen-table terms. Ignore niche voters or groups in advertising but go and speak before them to spread the word. Get really aggressive in YouTube spots to bypass the MSM. Deal in facts.
Hell, it has to work better that fielding RINO's.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 26, 2009 01:32 PM (ZGhSv)

65 I'm tired of voting for all of these good ol' boys in the Republican Party, I mean look and listen to them, and Huckleberry hound, give me a break, it's time for young Conservative new guys to turn this BS around. Preferably Veterans from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars!

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 01:33 PM (gS9C7)

66 So basicly it is between Hoffman and the Democrat candidate.

Posted by: Penfold at October 26, 2009 01:33 PM (lF2Kk)

67 If I was voting in NY-23 and Hoffman wasn't running, I would vote for the dem candidate and I haven't voted for a dem in decades.

Posted by: send the message at October 26, 2009 01:33 PM (DIYmd)

68 btw, I agree. Conservatives have nothing to lose- Congress is nearly a rubber-stamp for the Preznit as it is. Go, Hoffman, and inspire 534 other Hoffmans, too!

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2009 01:34 PM (e8YaH)

69 How is it legal for Hoffman to run in the 23rd district when he doesn't live there? I just read that he actually lives in the 20th district and can't even vote for himself. Even if it's legal, what fool would vote for someone who doesn't even live in the district?

Also, he joined the National Guard in 1970.

I see two words in this guys political future: mince meat.




Posted by: Jaynie59 at October 26, 2009 01:35 PM (YjQWV)

70 Hey Ace maybe you should do a post on that Scozzofava thing.

Posted by: That Guy at October 26, 2009 01:35 PM (aVQo/)

71 Preferably Veterans from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars!
just wait about 10 years, there will be a whole slew of them

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 01:35 PM (wuv1c)

72 71,

We don't have enough time Ben, *sigh*!

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 01:36 PM (gS9C7)

73 Is Haley Barbour completely off of the radar?
Fred Thompson needs to learn from his mistakes and begin campaigning NOW!

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 01:37 PM (wuv1c)

74 How is it legal for Hoffman to run in the 23rd district when he doesn't live there? I just read that he actually lives in the 20th district and can't even vote for himself. Even if it's legal, what fool would vote for someone who doesn't even live in the district?
Federal election law allows you to move into a district after the election. And New York does not have a history of necessarily penalizing candidates who did not always live there (e.g., Robert Kennedy, Hillary Rodham Clinton).
And as for voting for someone outside the district, if the choice is piece of crap A and piece of crap B, decent candidate C, who has said he will move in, may seem appealling.

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 26, 2009 01:37 PM (V9SYy)

75 Redstate has an article on Scozzafella's extremely sleazy family business, one which has racked up hundreds of thousands of unpaid tax liens.
Not only is she a liberal Republican, she's also apparently an Abramoff Republican, one that's been involved in the bribery and kickback business for many years. (remember her husband is a top union official)
This may just be why Newt likes her so much. He's always been in this game just to see how much cash he can rake off personally. No telling what his take was going to be if she won.

Posted by: wws at October 26, 2009 01:38 PM (T1boi)

76 Prediction: Lefy pollsters will release contrary polling in 3-2-1...

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2009 01:38 PM (1fwTy)

77 Isn't the 23rd district upstate, mostly rural? So perhaps 300 is actually a sample of the entire voting population, not just a subset of it.


Posted by: mer at October 26, 2009 01:40 PM (K0+Kb)

78 Prediction: Lefy pollsters will release contrary polling in 3-2-1...
Wingnuts - our poll shows Owen winning with 88 percent of the vote. Hoffman gets 1 percent.

Posted by: Democracy Corp. at October 26, 2009 01:40 PM (V9SYy)

79 "Well this is timely since Rush's replacement, a very poor replacement at that, was just discussing this for an hour. The guy thinks republicans need to be centrist and that Hoffman can't win."
This has to be an elaboratejoke on Rush's part, right? Showing what talk radio will be like if the Fairness Doctrine is re-enacted?

Posted by: LibertarianJim at October 26, 2009 01:41 PM (1Iiqg)

80 74.

I hope you're right.

I just cringed, though, when I read he joined the Guard. The media is gonna do to him what they did to Bush. Most people don't even know that Bush actually spent longer in the military than Kerry did.


Posted by: Jaynie59 at October 26, 2009 01:41 PM (YjQWV)

81 Isn't the 23rd district upstate, mostly rural? So perhaps 300 is actually a sample of the entire voting population, not just a subset of it.
All congressional districts are roughly the same population size. Each state must have 1. Once you start getting a second congressional district, it is about the same size.

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 26, 2009 01:41 PM (V9SYy)

82 I hate the term "progressive",
Progressive is a very telling and instructiveterm. It is what American fascists call themselves.
I do not say this to malign progressives, but rather to illustrate for you exactly what progressive means.
If it was possible to re-habilitate Mussolini in the arena of popular culture, then the progressives would simply call themselves fascists. As it is, they need a different word to disguise their tru intentions.

Posted by: Truman North at October 26, 2009 01:42 PM (e8YaH)

83 @69 - Hey MM's. I think we have a new one. Or an old one by a different name. Correct me if I'm wrong please NG or someone else but I don't think joining the guard was a "get out of Nam free" card in 1970. Tryin' to remember which branch of the service it was that TOTUS served in.

Posted by: teej at October 26, 2009 01:44 PM (c459z)

84 The Club for Growth poll, however, does show a consistent trend line with the other polls. All other polls show Owens basically stalled at 33 percent, Scarfavvo trending down and Hoffman trending up. So, on that front, it is consistent with the other polls released to date.

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 26, 2009 01:44 PM (V9SYy)

85 @80 Okay, I guess she's not. Sorry Jaynie, and welcome.

Posted by: teej at October 26, 2009 01:45 PM (c459z)

86 Prediction: Lefy pollsters will release contrary polling in 3-2-1...
Hey Republithugs. Our poll shows Owens winning by a margain of 87 percent. Hoffman has 2. And since our 87 is in line with Democracy Corps 88, you know it saccurate. Losers!

Posted by: PPP at October 26, 2009 01:48 PM (V9SYy)

87 It would be a bad bad thing if Scuzzy is running as the incumbent republican in 2010.

Posted by: Johnathan E. at October 26, 2009 01:49 PM (dQdrY)

88 85.

No problem. I don't like bringing stuff up in comments but it always ends up coming up anyway.

What was done to Bush was a travesty and believe me I could go on for hours about it. I still argue with people about it today who still don't know that Kerry never signed the 180.


Posted by: Jaynie59 at October 26, 2009 01:50 PM (YjQWV)

89 Hey teej! (waves) Did you get an appt. with a doctor and an MRI scanner yet?
Tryin' to remember which branch of the service it was that TOTUS served in.
I believe that TOTUS didn't serve with any official branch of the U.S. military. He fought in the woods (well, the rough where all thoseerrant golfballs seem to land)with the partisans.

Posted by: runningrn at October 26, 2009 01:52 PM (qP2BK)

90 83,

You are correct teej, I knew lots of guardsmen in 'Nam. W was Air Force.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 01:54 PM (gS9C7)

91 I believe that TOTUS didn't serve with any official branch of the U.S. military. He fought in the woods (well, the rough where all thoseerrant golfballs seem to land)with the partisans.
CNN has fact checked this statement and found it to be completely false. President Obama hits every drive straight down the fairway.

Posted by: Wolf Blitzer at October 26, 2009 01:55 PM (V9SYy)

92 Isn't the 23rd district upstate, mostly rural?

Mostly moose. In fact it's the moose that got Palin to endorse Hoffman. But the Moose don't vote...

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2009 01:55 PM (1fwTy)

93 teej,

I don't know how I typed that W was Air Force in answer to your query, but he was anyway.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 01:57 PM (gS9C7)

94 @ 64 I'm of the mind that real, bona-fide fiscalconservatism is a winner every time it's tried.

I don't buy that particular theory -- I know Limbaugh professes it frequently. Were he still alive, one might ask Goldwater if he buys into it. Unless one doesn't consider him a conservative.

Politics -- especially at the national level -- is reactionary; the pendulum swings back-and-forth based upon general public perception of how things are going on the whole.

Posted by: Curly Mustard at October 26, 2009 01:58 PM (sOpAl)

95 btw, the local repub chairs in NY-23 should be thrown out the day after the special election, they are obviously saboteurs.

Posted by: send the message at October 26, 2009 01:59 PM (DIYmd)

96 Typical idiot move for Gingrich. Self-destructive to the bitter end, like in 1996/7.
Right before he stars his "Presidential" announcement, he opens his piehole for a Super-RINO and attacks the Tea Party Conservatives - the real Republican base.
Fricking boring idiot. He's too stupid to read the tea leaves.

Posted by: TexasJew at October 26, 2009 02:00 PM (j4nwi)

97 Odumbass wouldn't have made it past day 3 of zero week in my platoon in boot, after I low crawled and push upped his sorry ass for 3 days he would have cried for his mommy, such a little girl that he is.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 02:00 PM (gS9C7)

98 Is there any chance of a Thompson/Palin ticket?,

Posted by: fightobama at October 26, 2009 02:01 PM (6IV8T)

99 69
How is it legal for Hoffman to run in the 23rd district when he doesn't
live there?

In most states, no problem because a vindictive legislature could redistrict a person out in time for the next election, so they only require state residency. In New York, it's no problem at all, as long as they are residents of the state, and even that is a pretty loose standard. (cf. Hillary Clinton)

Even if it's legal, what fool would
vote for someone who doesn't even live in the district?

I would. It's not like he lives in Manhattan. He lives closeby in a demographically similar district.
Also, he joined the National Guard in 1970.

Sounds like you read all the Lefty talking points. The attack machine is getting its message out.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2009 02:02 PM (T0NGe)

100 98

I prefer Palin/Thompson. She's stronger than he is.

Posted by: Jaynie59 at October 26, 2009 02:02 PM (YjQWV)

101 If Hoffman doesn't win now, he sure as hell will win in 2010.

Posted by: TexasJew at October 26, 2009 02:03 PM (j4nwi)

102 @ 98 Is there any chance of a Thompson/Palin ticket?

After Fred's pathetically listless effort last cycle, I'm not sure I'd want him anywhere near a campaign.

Posted by: Curly Mustard at October 26, 2009 02:03 PM (sOpAl)

103 I don't want Thompson to run again, he proved that he was just an actor reading a script, hell you might as well run Mel Gibson.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 02:04 PM (gS9C7)

104 According to a Stuart Rothenberg post in Roll Call (Aug. 12) the Party registrations in NY-23 are as follows (h/t Roy Edroso, Village Voice Blogs):

According to the
New York State Board of Elections, as of April 1, 43.1 percent of
active voters were Republicans in the 23rd, while 31 percent were
Democrats ó a 12.1-point advantage for the GOP.


So the CFG poll overstates Republican and Democratic registrants by 5% for the 23d District.

Posted by: mrp at October 26, 2009 02:04 PM (HjPtV)

105 Also, he joined the National Guard in 1970. Sounds like you read all the Lefty talking points. The attack machine is getting its message out.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2009 02:02 PM (T0NGe)
That's a hell of a lot more than 95% of college students did in the late 60's/early 70's. Good for him.

Posted by: TexasJew at October 26, 2009 02:05 PM (j4nwi)

106 Thompson had great conservative ideals, but he couldn't campaign for shit. No fire in the belly.

Posted by: Curly Mustard at October 26, 2009 02:07 PM (sOpAl)

107 If I may, I want to say old politics in this Country are done! This is a whole new era we are evolving into, time to get rid of old ways and start new ones. IMHO.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 02:07 PM (gS9C7)

108 99

No, I followed the 2004 election and saw what was done to Bush. I don't want to hijack this thread, but Hoffman needs to be prepared for that. They will attack him.

I'm glad the residency thing won't be much of an issue. I grew up in Rhode Island and now live in Mass and there's no way a candidate would get away with that around here. They'd elect Barney Franks frozen sperm if it was on the ballot.

Posted by: Jaynie59 at October 26, 2009 02:08 PM (YjQWV)

109 I hate the phrase "No fire in the belly." If it applied to anyone, it applied to McCain.

Posted by: fightobama at October 26, 2009 02:10 PM (6IV8T)

110 Anyone else listening to this whiny rush wannabee? Sheesh this guy is basically saying "don't bother to vote, the vote will be split and the dems will win anyway". Nothing like that power of positive thinking.

Posted by: curious at October 26, 2009 02:12 PM (p302b)

111 A more scientific poll at Rasmussen has Obama approval below 50% for 16 straight days, which means with a 3% MOE, he has definitely lost support since the election, because I was beginning to wonder when people would wake up.

Now if he drops below 47% for a couple of weeks, its my guess there just may be a republican tsunami in 2010.

Posted by: send the message at October 26, 2009 02:12 PM (DIYmd)

112 Too much info available and fast too, folks don't care about the old ways anymore, hug Real Conservatives that follow the Constitution and bring their new ideas to the political process in this Country, that's how we will win, so get with the new program folks or live in communism along with your children for the rest of your lives.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at October 26, 2009 02:12 PM (gS9C7)

113 You know I now realize why the prez has had no time to talk tot he generals and no time to talk to the special master for the bonuses, he is a closet "golf addict" and no one is willing to stage an intervention. So, everyone else must be doing his job to help out a bud.

Posted by: curious at October 26, 2009 02:16 PM (p302b)

114 Newt does what Newt thinks is best for Newt. He can't reverse his endorsement of Scozz for fear of looking weak.Ialso wonder whatdeal hehas worked out for himselfupin NY-23.

Posted by: davidt at October 26, 2009 02:17 PM (7VZtv)

115 No, I followed the 2004 election and saw what was done to Bush. I
don't want to hijack this thread, but Hoffman needs to be prepared for
that. They will attack him.

The attacks in 2004 were based on the notion that Kerry was some kind of a war hero. I don't see how attacking Guard service helps anyone in the NY-23 race.

Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2009 02:19 PM (IoxPW)

116 On a related note Dan Rather and Charles Johnson have found some incriminating documents concerning Dough Hoffman's National Guard Service

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 02:19 PM (wuv1c)

117 The attacks in 2004 were based on the notion that Kerry was some kind of a war hero.
The only reason we lost Vietnam is because we pulled John Kerry out too soon.

Posted by: Ben at October 26, 2009 02:20 PM (wuv1c)

118 I really really don't like Newt but then again, I don't like any of these old fashioned politicians. We need new blood, people who haven't been tainted. People with morals, principles. People who will think about the American people not about their own careers and stock portfolios. People with charaacter and honor. Problem is the political process is so toxic, you have to worry that they will interview the girl you kissed in the sand box and she will say you are a pedofile...so good people just don't bother anymore. Crooks have tons of energy for this kind of stuff though, they are used to the way of life, it's in their blood. There are plenty of them.

Posted by: curious at October 26, 2009 02:22 PM (p302b)

119 The only reason we lost Vietnam is because we pulled John Kerry out too soon.
Wow, I had no idea that John Kerry served in Viet Nam! It must have been in some sort of covert capacity.

Posted by: Charles Gibson at October 26, 2009 02:23 PM (qP2BK)

120 Michael in MI
"I got two words for them, and I think everyone knows what they are."
Surely you meant three words? Kiss my grits

Posted by: MDr at October 26, 2009 02:23 PM (ucq49)

121 According to the NRCC as of April, the party breakdown in the district was 43 percent Republican, 31 percent Democrat and 1 percent Conservative Party. So both Ds and Rs each were oversampled by 5 percent. Of course none of this matters anyway if they weighted the samples to party ID. That the R Party would nominate a moose RINO liberal like Dede Scozzafava is the most tell___ thing about the party.

Posted by: laddy at October 26, 2009 02:23 PM (qq9xo)

122 The only reason we lost Vietnam is because we pulled John Kerry out too soon.
Funny that you say that, I have the same problem with him in bed.

Posted by: Teresa Heinz Kerry at October 26, 2009 02:24 PM (qP2BK)

123 The only organization who has the true facts about districts is busy suing breitbart and company and trying to get them to shut I, very effectively. anyways, they need those figures so things can be fixed so it will be easier to get their people elected. Every time someone polls me though, I outright lie. It's none of their business.

Posted by: curious at October 26, 2009 02:25 PM (p302b)

124 IF (and I hope desperately) Hoffman does win, you'll be able to count on the heat pat, lap dog media to do their part. No story here, just a safe conservative seat, won by a conservative. Not a safe Republican seat, won by a maverick conservative, against all conventional wisdom,bucking the GOP "establishment". Couldn't be that, still, most Americans are conservatives, and if given a "choice" will reject the GOP's pablum, squishy, limo, "compassionate" candidates.
Gotta reduce the panic among Blue Dogs. Just sayin'

Posted by: MDr at October 26, 2009 02:35 PM (ucq49)

125 "The only reason we lost Vietnam is because we pulled John Kerry out too soon."
Actually, stealing from a popular 60s meme, the only reason we lost Vietnam is because Scary's father didn't pull out soon enough.

Posted by: MDr at October 26, 2009 02:38 PM (ucq49)

126 Would you nail Scozzafava if she promised todrop out of the race?

Posted by: Bonesaw at October 26, 2009 02:43 PM (ZgcbL)

127 This NY 23 has been lumped in with the other "BO must win this one races" so the dem will win, no matter what, no matter how.

Posted by: curious at October 26, 2009 02:48 PM (p302b)

128 A RNC hack tried to focus-group me once. I ate his liver with some Scozza-fava beans and a nice Chianti.

Posted by: Hannibal Lechter at October 26, 2009 02:51 PM (IoUF1)

129 keepin' it real is good...
no more lies, even from our own

Posted by: shoey at October 26, 2009 02:56 PM (n4TZg)

130 @ 126
"Would you nail Scozzafava if she promised todrop out of the race?"
Absolutely! Slowly, sensuously, not missing asquare inch of her humanity. I'd usethe nail gun in that Lethal Weapon movie. 3 or 4? Who cares, you get the drift.
Ohhhhh! I miss understood. I meant if she DOESN'T drop out.

Posted by: MDr at October 26, 2009 02:59 PM (ucq49)

131 The attacks in 2004 were based on the notion that Kerry was some kind of a war hero.

Kerry got a less than Honorable Discharge and got it upgraded to Honorable later by the Carter administration. That dickhead and I served at about the same time andthe discharge date on hisDD-214 doesn't match.

Posted by: Old Hippie Vet at October 26, 2009 03:06 PM (3IZGh)

132 @ 131
"Kerry got a less than Honorable Discharge"
Do you realize how few people know this? You can thank our Fourth Estate/Fifth Column/ head pat-lap dog media

Posted by: MDr at October 26, 2009 03:47 PM (ucq49)

133 "132

@ 131

"Kerry got a less than Honorable Discharge"

Do you realize how few people know this? You can thank our Fourth Estate/Fifth Column/ head pat-lap dog media

Posted by: MDr at October 26, 2009 03:47 PM (ucq49)"Seriously? Well that is comforting as ABC news just said he got back from a fact finding mission to Afghanistan and that he cannot endorse McCrystal yet. Great glad to know we have a really big military vet in on this. UGH

Posted by: curious at October 26, 2009 04:05 PM (p302b)

134 The methodology for the poll can be found here: LINKRepublicans seem to be over-sampled - 48% registered GOP 36% Dem
Believe it or not, that 12-point spread mirrors the most-recent registration statistics in that district(via Politico) - 43% R/31% D as of 4/1.
However, Basswood Research does have a long track record of overstating the conservative candidate's support by 4-5 percentage points.

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