1

i think the Caucaus region is taking this seriously. Maybe they just want to warm up Grozny.

 

Or maybe this is directed at China, who is eyeing Eastern Russian resources, while noting the massive decline in population of russia over the next 20 years

2 Smart diplomacy at work. Why do I not feel better.

3

I think the next time anuclear weapon is used it will not involve the US, but instead will involve China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran or Israel.

It's dangerous to live on the Asian Continent.

 

4 What’s more, Patrushev said, Russia is revising the rules for the employment of nukes to repel conventionally armed attackers, “not only in large-scale, but also in a regional and even a local war.”


Wow, that is some serious policy change.  In non bizarro world this would be held out as an example of failed diplomacy.  But Condi Rice is not longer SoS so move along.

5 Libthink: oppressed people like Russia deserve to have nuclear weapons, and have the right to use them against hegemonic imperialists like the US. The only way the rest of the world can ever feel safe is for the US to get rid of all nuclear weapons, as well as all armed services. And guns. The world won't feel safe until there are no guns in the USA.

6 What's more pathetic is that Hillary goes to Russia, hoping to meet with Putin. She doesn't. And he holds a press conference to talk about a song contest with China instead.

*face palm*

Respect.

7 poopy?

8
Precedent Wee Wee sure has made the world more peaceful with all that talk about no nukes, ain't he?  He deserves a prize or something.

9 The only objection Russia could have to eastern European missile defense is if they wanted to nuke Europe, or have a credible threat of nuking Europe.  I hope they can go ahead with missile defense without us until we get a more sane POTUS.  

10 In non bizarro world this would be held out as an example of failed diplomacy.

Let's see if I can spin this: "Statements like this from Russia show that the Obama administration is making the world safer- in the past, Russia would never threaten to us nuclear weapons. By stating that openly, they are now showing the world that they are no longer afraid of retribution of any kind by the US. This is a positive development."

11 I think we should all be able to have a concealed carry permit for NUKES.

12
F*ck europe.

13 I am guessing Putin did not get a thrill up his leg when President Fucquewit smiled at him.

14 Maybe his comment is aimed at Iran.  Set 'em up and then take them down out.  You make money in the process and get your uranium rocks off.

15 I think the next time anuclear weapon is used it will not involve the US, but instead will involve China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran or Israel.

China and Russia are headed for a collision course

16

Actually, this makes sense, given how bad the conventional Russian military did against a much smaller but US-trained military in Georgia.

It's still bad news for the Caucus and Eastern European regions.

In the end, there will be only chaos.

 

17 Meanwhile, the MSM purrs contentedly as it snuggles in Obama's lap.

18

Worse yet, if a nation were to change to a "nuke first" policy, why would that nation announce it publically unless it was to threaten someone.

19 It'd really be nice if we had some sort of way to protecting against a nuclear attack, say something like a missile, that we could shoot towards an incoming enemy missile and blow it up in the atmosphere, away from people. That would be really nice.

20 This seems like a thinly vailed threat against Chechnya and China. Russia doesn't need nukes to overpower Eastern Europe, but they would against China, whose need for natural resources may began to infringe upon Russia's historical sphere of interest.

21
Russia is revising the rules for the employment of nukes to repel conventionally armed attackers, “not only in large-scale, but also in a regional and even a local war.”

Once again, can you imagine the hysteria if Bush said that?

22 18

Worse yet, if a nation were to change to a "nuke first" policy, why would that nation announce it publically unless it was to threaten someone.

Damn you and your cursed logic!

You will soon be "relocated" to a "FEMA Camp" where you will be "re-educated" to think proper liberal thoughts!

All Hail Lord Obama!

23 "China and Russia are headed for a collision course"

It could be worse.

24 If the Law Library of Congress Director of Legal Research report on Honduras is to be believed (not to mention a story that the UN concurs), "Smart Diplomacy" is quickly heading for the "ash heap of history".

25 I can not wait to see how I do in a live action version of Fallout 3.

26 Let me be clear on this, it's all Hilliary's fault.

27 Hey Drew you might want to include a link that is listed on Drudge right now where Obama is allowing Russians access to our nuke sites. I guess they need to now inspect us because we are the bad guys we have been waiting for.

28

Nice 80s movie reference.

The things the administration are going are damn near treasonous. Obamas got Chavez and Putins poop on his nose from kissin their butts and its at our national securities expense.

Obama belongs in the Eighth Ring O Hell.

 

29

That the evil twins didn't threaten it was a failing on their part. How many of us have thought, "Why don't we just nuke the AfPak border and be done with it?" It's cheap, it's effective, what's not to like?

Be honest. You know you've thunk it.

30 It could be worse.

Not for the markets. Plus, China would spend it's money on the military not US debt.Hell, they might need to sell US debt to finance a war, which would cause US interest rates to go up and destroy private investment and autonomous consumption here.

We're too tied to China to not be seriously adversely effected by it.

31

#24  "Smart Diplomacy" is quickly heading for the "ash heap of history".

Unfortunately, the ash heap will also contain: the dollar's value, US prestige, and probably Israel, Honduras, and Taiwan, thanks to this Administration.

 

32

The only objection Russia could have to eastern European missile defense is if they wanted to nuke Europe, or have a credible threat of nuking Europe.  I hope they can go ahead with missile defense without us until we get a more sane POTUS.  

they won't nuke Europe, that would be like nuking a bank you plan on robbing again.  this threat is aimed at border regions in asia, letting the smaller nations know that anything could happen

33 I am going to buy some vodka.

34 How about a nice game of chess?

35
China and Russia are headed for a collision course

Not until they dislodge the US from its precarious perch. They just finished a new round of agreements which included two oil lines from Russia to China. They're both staunch members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which is dedicated to removing Western influence from Asia. They are also both supporters of Iran, selling it more than 85% of its arms, transferring technology, and using Iran as a proxy against the US in the Middle East.

Make no mistake, the US is #1 on the hit list. After we're out of the picture, China and Russia will fight over what's left. But not until we're out of the picture.

36 Is it time to start learning Russian? Might come in handy in a few more years....

37

#35

Alas, you're probably right.  I had almost forgotten about the SCO.

38 Tell him nuclear war is like tic-tac-toe so we can all learn a lesson and have a group hug.

39

The distinction between conventional weapons and weapons of mass destruction is nothing more than a mental construct on the part of the people and politicos of Western democratic nations.

Totalitarian governments have never bought into the idea and never will, despite any words or treaties to the contrary.  The use of these weapons simply does not carry the same political consequences for non-democratic governments.

40

36 Is it time to start learning Russian? Might come in handy in a few more years....

Chinese would probably be more useful in the long-term.

41

did everyone have the hots for ally sheedy when WarGames came out? No? Just me?

 

42

China and Russia are headed for a collision course

See I don't see the Bear and the Dragon coming to a head for at least 20-30 years. China has patience and can way for Russia population to plummet to 100 million people. I would think the biggest problems will involve India-Pakistan, India-China, and Korea-Japan-China.

I don't think Korean re-unification will go as peacefully as German re-unification.

 

Also not in the news is India is moving more troops to its Chinese border, because China 3 years ago built a rail road to tibet, allowing it to begin colonization and militarizaiton in earnest.

43 Make no mistake, the US is #1 on the hit list. After we're out of the picture, China and Russia will fight over what's left. But not until we're out of the picture.

China needs the US for it's exports. They have a good 30 years before they can function without US consumption propping their economy up. They do, however, need more and more natural resources, which will put them at odds with Russia's persistent tactics of bullying it's neighbors.

44

Let me start something here.

 

600 million screaming Chinamen.

I thought there were a billion?

45

also this post overlooks the fact that Obama looks good as Putin's bitch

a role he was born to play

thanks, 52ers!

46 I can not wait to see how I do in a live action version of Fallout 3

do i get a pet radscorpion?

47

If Russia nuked Chechnya, would anyone notice the difference beyond what they left behind last time the worked the place over?

 

 

48

Lets pull our troops out of Europe. All of them.  I think that we still have some in Bosnia.  WHY?   While we are at it, pull out of NATO.  Leave Brussels to the French. They are now part of NATO again.  They would not have done that unless Obama made them a promise that they could take it over. NATO is of no benefit to the US any more. Its a Europe/ Western Asia thing now. Its also tied to the Euro. The Euro is our one of our monetary problem now. Why do we support anything in Europe now with our money/troops?

49

Tell him nuclear war is like tic-tac-toe so we can all learn a lesson and have a group hug.

 

you can't hug your children with nuclear arms

50 ^well played

51

#49  you can't hug your children with nuclear arms

You can if you want them to glow in the dark.

52 Is it time to start learning Russian? Might come in handy in a few more years...
Posted by: IC at October 14, 2009 12:01 PM (jZNCU)

.Nope, English will be fine because when all is said and done, India will come out on top.

53 The US did agree to let Russia into all our nuke facilities. So, um, we got that concession from them. Or whatever.

54 What will we do about the nuke that "accidentally" gets fired towards us?

55 Putin must think he won the lottery w/ Obama.

56 The post about Hillary being stood up by Putin on her trip to Russia.  Yep, message  pretty clear, Russia doesn't need the US around as the dollar is almost tanked and obsolete for oil markets, the deficit charts for our fiscal policies are going to bankrupt us in a few years, and Obama and Hillary are not all that scarey even when they denote their Marxist ideologies in every foreign and domestic policy.  To the old Marxist big guns, China and Russia, Obama is the new Commie kid trying to impress them, and they are not impressed.  Hard ball Commies will make Obama and Hillary's softball socialist play look like a nursery game.

57

Why do we support anything in Europe now with our money/troops?

 

because it is the only thing keeping the EU from allying with Russia.  Make no mistake, if the EU leaves the America Alliance, it will not be self sufficient, it will glom onto another military power, and Russia is the closest and most familiar.

 the Germans have been neutered, they would be the only thing preventing an alliance with Russia, and they don't see the difference between us and Russia.

58 I prefer a nice game of chess.

59 So we got absolutely nothing for cancelling the missile shield, nothing for agreeing to talks with Iran, nothing for any international effort in the last 9 months. Fuckin fantastic, and to think the press keeps labeling this guy a success I would really hate to see what failure would look like. Somehow I think if Kansas was left a smoking nuclear crater MSNBC would find a way to report that unemployment dropped 10 points that day.

60
Putin must think he won the lottery w/ Obama.

Yup.  The rooskies hate 2 things:  weakness, and anyone not white.  We are so f*cked it's not even funny.  But I'm gonna laugh anyway. 

61 Wolverines!!

62 Nope, English will be fine because when all is said and done, India will come out on top.

So you're telling me in 20 years my kids will have to learn broken Hindi while attempting to tell someone to unplug and replugin their router?

63

#62  So you're telling me in 20 years my kids will have to learn broken Hindi while attempting to tell someone to unplug and replugin their router?

20 years sounds a bit too long. 

But I still think the chaos route will reign supreme, in the end.

64

Is it time to start learning Russian? Might come in handy in a few more years...
Posted by: IC at October 14, 2009 12:01 PM (jZNCU)

.Nope, English will be fine because when all is said and done, India will come out on top.

 

no way india comes out on top.  Internal reasons will prevent it from doing so. Also the demographics of the country prevent it as being as unified as say China which is 94 percent Han Chinese.

 

Plus India has more enemies over there than anyone else.

65 18

Worse yet, if a nation were to change to a "nuke first" policy, why would that nation announce it publically unless it was to threaten someone.

Posted by: Kratos (on the back of Gaia, scaling Mt Olympus) at October 14, 2009 11:52 AM (9hSKh)

To quote Dr. Strangelove - "Why would you build a doomsday device and keep it a secret? It only works if you tell everyone that you have it."  They are getting ready to do something and are telling everyone else to stay the hell out.

66

#41

Yo Cool Money!

I'm with you on that one.

67 34 How about a nice game of chess?

Posted by: WOPR at October 14, 2009 12:00 PM (jvrmc)

Damnint-  got owned so bad its not funny.

68
OT:  Is anyone able to hear Rush online?  If so what affiliate, I can't find any with a working stream.

69

Dang Straights

you can go to wcbm dot com

it's a maryla

70 Now is the perfect time to increase funding for the arts.

71 I was saying ... it's a maryland station before my computer decided to refresh itself. sheesh

72

Any major war that happens in the 21st century will take place on the Asian continent.

It sounds like Europe at the turn of the 20th century.

Rising powers and declining powers. Economic conflicts of interest. Desire to control natural resources. Competition for ownership in the developing world. Border disputes. Irredentism. etc etc

73 Hmm, maybe this is why Obama kept saying how important it was for Americans to be multi-lingual during his campaign last year - he was being clairevoyent

74 I must be missing something. To what 80's movie are you referring to?

75

600 million screaming Chinamen.

I thought there were a billion?

racist. you lie.

76 is it Red Dawn?

77 I feel safe.

_{Thanks, Nobel Prize Committee!}

ps: joeb - The movie reference is to War Games.

78
All kinds of 80s movie reference FAIL up in dis bia.

79 Never mind.. War games

80 is it Red Dawn?

Posted by: joebafett at October 14, 2009 12:24 PM (+ufbc)

 

this thread's 80s movie reference vis a vis Obama is

Working Girl

81 That Smarts Power really smarts.  At least, there was truth in advertising.  That's got to be worth something.

82
Toxic Avenger

83 The negotiating methods of the Obama Admin works if you are negotiating with guilt ridden white liberals.  China, Russia, heck, just about anyone not guilt soaked by American culture, not so much.

84 Hush up, all of you.  You keep going on about this, you're going to wake up little Chrissie and Keef from the sweet dreams they are having about Obama!  Look at them, aren't they so cute, the way their mouths move?

85
They have a good 30 years before they can function without US consumption propping their economy up. They do, however, need more and more natural resources, which will put them at odds with Russia's persistent tactics of bullying it's neighbors.

I'd like to agree, but I can't. China is developing alternate markets and alternate sources of natural resources very aggressively. [One of their key suppliers of natural resources is Russia, who now relies on Chinese trade (their trade with China is roughly twice that with the US).] The Chinese internal market is growing tremendously, and will dwarf ours in a decade. If they take Taiwan (which they will in 5-10 years), and get us out of Korea (which will probably happen in the same time frame), then they'll have locked Asia up and they'll be ready to take advantage of their extensive groundwork in Africa and South America.

Russia can't go to war with China. And China, notwithstanding its extensive military buildup, will never need to go to war with the US. China is fencing off energy supplies and natural resources, supplanting our manufacturing base, and creating long-term alliances around the globe. We've already felt the pinch caused by their increased consumption in the areas of metals, concrete, and oil. Our economy is going to continue to get hammered by domestic policy idiocy and external competition, until we're no longer the dominant player in geopolitics, and our standard of living has slipped dramatically.

Make no mistake - SCO has targeted the US, and SCO is basically an instrument of China's policy. This isn't a guess - numerous sources have verified that that is the intent of the organization, though the organization denies it. But even the official statements talk about the desirability of a "multipolar world" - i.e., a world where there is more than one superpower.

Of course, once the US has been sidelined, the unipolar world will be back in vogue, with China and Russia vying for that honor.

86 Whoa, whoa, WHOA --- WarGames references are my schtick.

87 #77 "Is it safe? Is What safe....Is It SAFE?"

88 this thread's 80s movie reference vis a vis Obama is

Working Girl

Yup, Obambi has a head for sin and a body built for (giving us the) business.

89

no way india comes out on top.  Internal reasons will prevent it from doing so. Also the demographics of the country prevent it as being as unified as say China which is 94 percent Han Chinese.

 Plus India has more enemies over there than anyone else.

Posted by: Ben at October 14, 2009 12:12 PM (wuv1c)

China can't keep walking this free economic/oppressive politics line forever.

Yes, India has challenges and contradictions but in the end the freer country will win out and India has a stronger basis from which to overcome it's problems than China.

Authoritarian regimes always blow up in the end and it's never pretty.

90

The quote is either from C.H.U.D. or Swamp Thing. Probably Swamp Thing.

/

91 Is it somewhat ironic that Ace has banner ads for meeting hawt, lonely Russian women?

92 I say we give the Mongols nukes.  They'd know what to do, and they wouldn't have to turn around at the border of Europe, this time.  Let the new Asian Pulse begin!

93 China can't keep walking this free economic/oppressive politics line forever.

Yes, India has challenges and contradictions but in the end the freer country will win out and India has a stronger basis from which to overcome it's problems than China.

Authoritarian regimes always blow up in the end and it's never pretty.

This is not always the case, really. Authoritarian regimes collapse when there is an external force maintaining pressure on them. If the US is economically and militarily sidelined, that pressure might be absent. Also, Pakistan is China's butt boy. India is under pressure on two fronts. I'm not sure they can survive the real military and economic pressure that would ensue from Chinese hegemony and US impotence.

94

Kayne

Hot yes, lonely, I doubt it

95 I suppose the quickest way to reduce one's nuclear arsenal is to use it up.  So, ...
Progress!
Way to go, President Nobel!

96 68
OT:  Is anyone able to hear Rush online?  If so what affiliate, I can't find any with a working stream.

radio.woai.com is still up.

97

Now who saw this coming??? Thanks 52%

 

You can if you want them to glow in the dark.

 

Not really, contrary to TV education radioactive material does not glow in the dark or the light.

98

o/t kinda...maybe already discussed:

 

 http://tinyurl.com/yl6u67y

 

99

Is it somewhat ironic that Ace has banner ads for meeting hawt, lonely Russian woman?

happens alot, i think its a program that somehow drives off keywords in the most recent topic. 

100 "Germans ... they don't see the difference between us and Russia."

Really?  Sure we screwed their women and ate their struddle, but no difference that the Ruskies?  I thought they were pretty harsh on their struddle.

101 According to CNN's excellent fact-checking. dumb old George W. Bush used to say "Nucular", so we don't have to worry anymore with Obama on this issue.

102 So much cheer and joy. I think I'll start sniffing glue to help me handle all the happiness.

103 I think that we should all get together, and write a book titled.   The New Superpowers in 2025. Do it before someone else does. Ace can be our lawyer and agent. He can also find a publisher, etc.

104 #97 No, but my soul glows just thinking about it

105 I hereby nominate Patrushev and Putin for the Nobel Peace Prize for making the world safer by threatening everyone around them with ACTUAL nuclear weapons instead of just pretend ones like that Imadinerjacket guy.

106 ahh so thats why he let Hill go and not Biden or his august self, to take the fall when they say Nyet to sanctions, oh frak me man

Well thems the breaks, she got the Turkey/Armenia pact signed and helped push No Ireland to accept politicing and court duties something the protestants are LOATHE to do as it will give Sinn Fein a voice in the courts, lets hope that works out

the big issues its all TOTUS all the time and he is uhm naive is the nicest word Hill was able to come up with during the primaries to describe his foreign policy I think, then they said that was racist too, Sebelius said inexpeirnecee and arrogant were also racist code words in fact, pfft.

so get your bomb shelters ready I guess...

107 @68: OT: Is anyone able to hear Rush online? If so what affiliate, I can't find any with a working stream.

I'm listening to wabcradio.com 77 WABC out of New York

 

108

think that we should all get together, and write a book titled.   The New Superpowers in 2025. Do it before someone else does. Ace can be our lawyer and agent. He can also find a publisher, etc.

 

I think Stratfor already wrote it, but they went balls out and wrote it about 2100 no 2025

109

Authoritarian regimes always blow up in the end and it's never pretty.

The thing is, China has never not had an authoritarian regime. It's business as usual for them.

110 Authoritarian regimes collapse when there is an external force maintaining pressure on them.

Posted by: joncelli at October 14, 2009 12:34 PM (RD7QR)

Authoritarian regimes, like all centralized systems, eventually collapse from the growth and dynamism of the underlying society, since centralized planning can never deal with growth.  This is why the Soviets, though having enough genius around, were never able to construct systems to transport their plentiful food supplies to the market without having more than half of it rot along the way.

111

this thread's 80s movie reference vis a vis Obama is

It is either Howard the Duck or Solar Babies

112 #110 are you quoting Gibbin?

113

speaking of 80s movies

what is the name of that one where that young blond girl runs away, cuts her hair and become a national phenomenon for some unknown reason.

i know that is a terrible description

114 The thing is, China has never not had an authoritarian regime. It's business as usual for them.
Posted by: geoff at October 14, 2009 12:43 PM (PvVlM)

A very good point but not always this centralized, right?

I should have been clearer that I don't think we are going to see a free and democratic China anytime soon (though Taiwan, while imperfect, could be a model)
but can the country as whole stick together the way it has?

115 Billi jean?

116 113

speaking of 80s movies

what is the name of that one where that young blond girl runs away, cuts her hair and become a national phenomenon for some unknown reason.

i know that is a terrible description

Legend of Billie Jean?????

117 Howard the Duck was a very underrated film.

118 112 #110 are you quoting Gibbin?

Posted by: joebafett at October 14, 2009 12:46 PM (+ufbc)

Who's Gibbin?

119 Excuse me Alex,What is "The legend of Billi Jean."

120 Everyone seems to be forgetting that Iran and Israel getting into a fight is in Putin's and his GAZPROM/KGB mafia's best interest right now.  And they are going to make sure that it happens.

Russia desperately needs energy prices to rise, as they are about to go broke, and now that natural gas extraction tech is maturing nicely, the russians have pretty much been decapitated in terms of the stranglehold on the european energy market, or will be within 5 years time.

I think that things in the mideast are about to get very hot, very fast, because Obumbles has telegraphed that we are going to be sitting this one out.  He pretty much gave the green light to russian interference anywhere in europe and the ME when he reneged on the missile shield treaty with our few friends over there.
Good luck over there, your going to need it!

121
Taiwan, while imperfect, could be a model

Taiwan is going to be 3rd in line after Hong Kong and Macao. A free trade zone that serves as a cash cow for the mainland.

122
I ate their women and screwed their strudels. 

123 #118 Edward Gibbon, The Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire. Pretty good book. -sorry I spelled his name wrong .

124

 

When I see Hillary out there doing the bidding for Obama on foreign policy, the only thing I can think of is that movie, "Thelma & Louise."

This will all end with Obama and Hillary driving off the cliff, after saying "I Love You" to each other, and a screaming smile on their face all the way down. 

125 Taiwan is going to be 3rd in line after Hong Kong and Macao.

You don't think they will move militarily against Taiwan, do you? It'll be more of a mob like merger or 'arrangement', if it happens. Right? 

126 Everyone seems to be forgetting that Iran and Israel getting into a fight is in Putin's and his GAZPROM/KGB mafia's best interest right now. And they are going to make sure that it happens.

If Bambi really is going to sit this one out, and the Russians really do want chaos, then maybe that's why Bibi went to Moscow: to ask the Don for permission to whack Iran.

127

117 Howard the Duck was a very underrated film.

Why, because it had duck tits in it?  Or because Lea Thomson and Howard get together?

That may have been Lucas's worse film until Episode 1.

128

First nuclear weapon used in battle:  'Little Boy'

Second nuclear weapon used in battle:   'Fat Man'

Third nuclear weapon used in battle:      'Hello Kitty'

I don't think the Japanese are quite the spent economic force they're portrayed as, and they don't like the Chinese all that much; feelings are pretty well mutual.

129
but can the country as whole stick together the way it has?

Good question. Their economic success has certainly put new strains on the government. But they're not stupid, and they look far down the road, so my guess is that they're going to survive.

At least until we've been mortally wounded.

130 Sure we screwed their women and ate their struddle

I once ate strudel with one of the most beautiful women I have ever met. It was in Austria, right on the Bavarian border.

Ah, Sondra with the big brown eyes.....

God, I love Austria.

Sorry, what were we talking about?

131 "Is it somewhat ironic that Ace has banner ads for meeting hawt, lonely Russian woman?

happens alot, i think its a program that somehow drives off keywords in the most recent topic. "

In the Honduras thread, there were ads for cheap waterfront property in the country.  Tempting since they can recognize and throw out a dictator down there.

132 #129 "Maybe we got 'em demoralized."

133 I don't think the Japanese are quite the spent economic force they're portrayed as, and they don't like the Chinese all that much; feelings are pretty well mutual.

Somebody here (or at Rantburg, forget which) pointed out that both Japan and Taiwan are probably several turns of a wrench away from being nuclear powers. That probably keeps the Chinese at bay, even with the US out of the picture.

134

DrewM, that's BRILLIANT!  All we have to do is get Putin to marry Sarah Jessica Parker and do musical theater, and we'll have world peace!

(He's already got the Ferris Bueller schtick down pat.)

135
Not a fan of the ladies, are you Trebek?

136
You don't think they will move militarily against Taiwan, do you?

My guess is that it'll be a "soft" invasion that will be backed by their regional military superiority. They don't quite have that superiority yet, but it'll happen within 5 years.

Of course, with our current leadership, they might not need to wait for military superiority.

137 Billi Jean is NOT my girl...

138 Sorry, what were we talking about?

Screwing strudel and eating women. Try to keep up.

139 I wonder if the Ukraine surreptitiously kept any of their nukes.  If they didn't I bet they wish they did.

140 #135 "I'll take Anal bum covers for 200$"

141 If Bambi really is going to sit this one out, and the Russians really do want chaos, then maybe that's why Bibi went to Moscow: to ask the Don for permission to whack Iran.


I'm pretty sure Bibi went to Russia to try and get them to stay out of a local skirmish with Iran.  Russia will promise that, but they are lying.  Like I said they want an energy crisis right now.  I had read somewhere that oil under $70 a barrel is unprofitable for GAZPROM, something to do with all the internal skimming and corruption.

142 112 #110 are you quoting Gibbin?

Posted by: joebafett at October 14, 2009 12:46 PM (+ufbc)

That is just one of the conclusions I came to about centralized systems and leftist ideas after spending a couple of years on Israeli kibbutzim, where one can easily see that growth is what killed them.  It's also why I call leftists, staticists, since their whole world view is dependent on a static, unchanging world (which makes sense, since the leftists imagine that there is a perfect world to be achieved, which obviously would never change).  It is this fantasy of the static world that drives them to even think that centralized planning is a reasonable idea, as they look around and think, "Hey, I could do that job," without taking into account how that job ever got created in the first place.  This staticist view of the world is also what leads them to want to steal everyone else's wealth, NOW, because they can't imagine growth and the creation of new wealth.

Kibbutzim were a great learning experience for me.  Nothing showed the clear weaknesses of leftist ideas like the kibbutzim.

143

I have no doubt that Japan could have a nuclear weapon in a matter of weeks.  The USA probably has some enriched U235 available for Japanese "research" purposes.

No surprise about the Russians--we withdrew from the field of battle and they took our spot.  Weakness is easy to recognize.

Grim

144

Somebody here (or at Rantburg, forget which) pointed out that both Japan and Taiwan are probably several turns of a wrench away from being nuclear powers.

The really bad thing about that is then 10 meg thermonuclear weapons will be showing up at Best Buy, although they'll be kinda expensive until the economies of scale kick in. That'll be a real Blue Light special! The only deterrent left will be getting the damn plastic bubble package open.

No returns after detonation! These yields are only estimates, your megatonnage may vary!

145

Black sheep & russian vodka {longing sigh} I miss the old country.

 

146
Somebody here (or at Rantburg, forget which) pointed out that both Japan and Taiwan are probably several turns of a wrench away from being nuclear powers.

I doubt that Taiwan has the political will to use nukes on the mainland. And since it would make little difference to the Chinese, it's not much of a deterrent. Plus there's always the delivery problem.

Japan's a different beast. Fortunately. I doubt they would use nukes to support Taiwan, though.

147 #142 Which is kind of a fancy way of saying too many chiefs, not enough Indians?

148 Barry has been intent on reversing everything Reagan did since day-one...

That includes losing a Cold-War that was already won...

149

Hillary's trip to Russia really paid dividends, didn't it?

The Russkies were really impressed with the Overcharge button

150 Barry has been intent on reversing everything Reagan did since day-one...

Interesting; was the flop-eared fuck even in the damn country when Reagan was president? An eastern college campus does not count as part of the country in this case, if ever.

151 With all the 80s movie references and Alex Trebeck references, I think this thread has jumped the shark.

152 Their economic success has certainly put new strains on the government.

Central governments often face an extreme challenge when they loosen their grip, even in the slightest. But on the other hand, a rising tide tends to mitigate against any great agitation for change. Plus, the Chinese aren't internally marketing Marxism/Socialism very much, but rather nationalism, which has a very strong level of support among the population. The population sees themselves as a rising great power, and they tend to see the government as the agent of that ascension. That gives the government a great deal of support.

153
Gosh, everyone's so tense about nuclear warfare. Our new policies are a rebuke to Bush, so it's ok!

By the way, love the Reset button, Barry. You're a friggin' world genius.

154 THIS IS JUST LIKE VIETNAM!

155 #142   PoP   the government of Israel is quite fuzzy for me.  Is it a Socialist State, or a Social Replublic, or a Republic, or a Thoecracy?   What would you call it.

156
Dang, XBrad, now you've got me agreeing with you again.

Bastidge.

157 Japan's a different beast. Fortunately. I doubt they would use nukes to support Taiwan, though.

I think there was a discussion here recently about how unique the US is as being the only hegemon in history not to inspire defensive alliances among everyone else in direct contact with it.  China is not likely to share that status with use.  When things heat up over there, I expect to see Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and similarly free people take organize accordingly.

158

go look at drudge

PUTIN DEFIANT: NO IRAN SANCTIONS
RUSSIA 'PRE-EMPTIVE NUKES'

159 Geoff, just drink heavily. It dulls the pain. Trust me.

160
I'll take Jap Anus relations for $200, Alex.

161

Why can't we have a guy like Putin as our President? I guess the Ukraine is probably not feeling very much like Obama brought peace to them right now.

Also, since the thread has aleady jumped the shark, what is up with the stock market almost at 10,000 and strong earnings reports? I am so confused about the economy at this point.

162 It's almost like the Russians watched Bill Whittle's Game theory video and realized Obama has no clue.

:/

163 PGIS, not to knock the market, and I'm unclear on the strong earnings reports, but the increase in the Dow tracks nicely with the decrease in the buying power of the dollar. In other words, the Dow is effectively stagnant in real terms.

164 Japan is already, for all intents and purposes, a nuclear power. It would take the Japanese about a year (probably much less) to constitute a deliverable nuclear weapon from their inventory. The South Koreans are probably not as ready, but it is still well within their current capability. In fact, modern technological innovations (like CNC machines, inexpensive supercomputing equipment, and easy access to research) mean that nuclear arms are within the reach of pretty much any industrialized nation, provided they have the raw materials. It's a large engineering challenge, certainly, but far simpler than it was even ten years ago.

And if a nation is willing to compromise on the definition of "deliverable weapon", a nuke is even easier because it doesn't have to be scaled down to fit on a missile. A low-yield fission device in the 25-50KT range would be easy for nearly any competent engineer to build, given enough enriched fissile material. It wouldn't be all that large, either: it would fit easily into a car or truck. A weapon in the 100kT to 200kT range would be trickier to build and deliver, but still within the means of a highly-industrialized and wealthy nation. And a 200kT weapon would pretty much obliterate a mid-sized city. (Look at photos of Hiroshima and Nagasaki: those weapons were in the 10-15kT range, and were not highly-evolved designs.)

It's only a matter of time before a nuclear weapon is a commodity just like anything else. Nukes will be to 21st century dictators and tyrants what fighter jets and tanks were to those in the 20th century: symbols of power, both at home and abroad. And they will be used: I guarantee it. MAD does not work in a multipolar nuclear world. Someone will pack a nuke into the back of a truck and park it near an embassy in some city -- Delhi, Islamabad, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Tehran, Riyadh -- and the nightmare will begin with a bright flash of light and a storm of nuclear fire. Count on it. You'll see it in your lifetime; very probably within the next ten to fifteen years.

165
When things heat up over there, I expect to see Japan, South Korea, Australia, Taiwan and similarly free people take organize accordingly.

I think you've already seen what you're going to get, and APEC and SEATO aren't going to get the job done. Taiwan's going to get snatched up amid tepid diplomatic protests. If Korean unification actually transpires, it's expected that the US military will leave and suspected that Korea will become a client state of China.

There's not much left to ally with at that point.

166 In other words, the Dow is effectively stagnant in real terms.

The rise in gold prices has paralleled rise in stock prices. Which means that, in real terms, the stock market has done exactly jack squat in the past year. We're playing with Monopoly money. And anyway, I've never liked using the DJIA as an indicator of the overall economy: the bond and commercial-paper markets are better, and they both still suck.

167

Someone will pack a nuke into the back of a truck and park it near an embassy in some city -- Delhi, Islamabad, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Tehran, Riyadh -- and the nightmare will begin with a bright flash of light and a storm of nuclear fire.

Me, I'm tinkin' da village hall in Rosemont. Elk Grove Village, too. Stifle MY O'hare expansion plans, willya????

168 Sigh, Dum-Dum was finally right; we really DON'T deserve Obama. At least, I didn't do anything heinous enough to deserve him!

169 Its well known that Obama does everything in reverse when it comes to what Republican Presidents did or said. It just came to me, Teddy Roosevelt. "Speak softly and carry a big stick." Obama always now revises it to be, "Talk loudly., and disarm yourself."   "Let Me be perfectly clear about this?" 

170

China's ability to hold it together as-is could be in question.  With so much disinformation coming out of there it's hard to tell.  Even US expats in China tell radically different stories from one to the next.  But his is my 2 cents based on the best picture I can assemble:

On the one hand, they have strengths that include utter ruthlessness, total shamelessness, massive population, access to a pretty hefty supply of resources, and reasonable military capabilities. 

On the other hand most of the rivers are toxic to humans - the horrific pollution is reported to be offsetting much/most of their economic growth.  Desperately poor peasants make up the VAST majority of the people, especially outside the cities.  AIDS is rampant.  The one-child system has produced a generation of the most shockingly selfish people man kind has ever seen; the elderly are no longer revered, but are cheated by their children who grasp only for money.  Communism crushed out their traditional religion(s) and corresponding morals, and while Christianity is making gains it's not going to revolutionize their society over night.  The only technical progress they seem able to make is accomplished by stealing technology from western companies, and they're still committed to a LOT of central planning of the economy - their banking system being a key element of that approach.  There is no need for me to explain the drawbacks of that approach.  Their economic system is totally merchantilistic (the only real reason for the trade deficit with them) and high rates of savings are a key cultural feature (a necessary one, too) - they will not convert to domestic consumption nearly as fast as some would have us believe. 

Personally, I think they're already working overtime to keep the current situation functional.  The early stages of the recession caused them to lose 20 MILLION jobs, and I doubt that their stimulus package is working all that much better than ours.  If we had been smart enough to oppose, isolate, and strangle China the way we did the USSR, rather than the foolish and defeatest approach we took, they would already have fallen and something more democratic would have risen.

171 155 #142   PoP   the government of Israel is quite fuzzy for me.  Is it a Socialist State, or a Social Replublic, or a Republic, or a Thoecracy?   What would you call it.

Posted by: mystry at October 14, 2009 01:12 PM (kmgIE)

Israel is a strictly party-oriented parliamentary system without a Constitution - so national elections involve nothing more than a single vote picking a party. It is essentially secular (as the Founders had been very anti-religious, for the most part), though there is a strange religious/ethnic/secular meeting point in the determination of who is a Jew (for purposes of the Law of Return) and Shabbat laws used to be fairly strict (though the last time I was there stores were open on Shabbat and bread was sold during Passover).  It was very socialist from the start and still has huge swaths of leftists among the population (though Netanyahu did quite a bit of work in gettting the state out of a lot of the economy).  Israel is a bit of a mix between Europe and the US, though it is very much more European than American (though that is changing as America goes down the collectivist tube). 

Israelis have not been satisfied with their political system (as it is a pretty crappy one) but they don't seem to understand the US system.  They have taken to holding party primaries in some attempt to mimic the US, but I spent much of my time there trying to explain to them that primaries in the US weren't even part of our formal politics, as we in the US don't have political parties as Constitutional entities.  I can't say that any Israelis understood what I was trying to say.  They just don't get the point of individualistic government - as seems to be true for pretty much everyone else in the world, and many idiots in the US, too.

An interesting note, Bibi is pretty American, himself, as he went to Cheltenham high school (outside of Philly) and has many American sensibilities about him.  His perfect English also seems to make lots of Israelis jealous and, I think, feeds a lot of the animosity Israelis hold towards him.

Much of Israel's political structure is forced by the fierce security requirements, so they don't have as much leeway as other nations.  They couldn't really adapt a US style system, as that would guarantee arabs representation and too strong of a voice in the Israeli government (which would, obviously, be suicide).  Israel gets lucky with the arabs, so far, since even though arabs have full voting rights, something like 35% of Israeli arabs boycott national elections because they don't want to acknowledge the existence of the state.  If the arabs ever decide to vote in their numbers, Israel will be royally screwed.

172 Re China, I think Reactionary is right: China's headed for trouble. They will have another decade atop the world's "next superpower" lists before things start to really go badly for them. It's an oft-quoted phrase, but it bears repeating: "China will get old before it gets rich." This is no idle speculation: China's population is mostly rural, mostly dirt-poor, and rapidly aging. Much of China's "miracle economy" was driven by exports, but this cannot continue (particularly during a recession). Further, China's banking and financial systems are far weaker than the Chinese like to let on. Their banks are groaning under bad loans that may explode with more force than anyone realizes.

China is trying to grow madly now while the opportunity is there. But it's like trying to blow up a balloon that has a pinhole in it: the balloon will inflate for awhile, but the air will inevitably escape. The only way to keep the balloon inflated is to keep on puffing and puffing and puffing. But you can't keep this up forever.

Then there is the male/female imbalance driven by the one-child policy. The Chinese have a cultural preference for male children, and this has led over the years to a significant disparity between males and females in many areas. Tens of millions of horny, unmarried chinese men is bad enough; put them into a situation where they can't find jobs either, and you have a recipe for social upheaval and violence on your hands.

Whatever problems we have in America, they pale before those the Chinese face. I think the Indians have a much better chance of succeeding long-term than the Chinese do (as long as they and the Pakistanis can avoid killing each other off).

173 I loved watching Russian documentaries right after they let a few 20/20 types in. I remember seeing the drunks who got the vodka the one day a month it hit the stores all drunk and disorderly.  One kind of toothpaste on the shelf and underwear that looked like torture devices used at Gitmo. What a wonderful place. Nothing as cool and kitchy as Boris Badenough and Natasha. Now that pussie pants in in office they can return to that glory of old since we would never enter a new arms race with them. We would rather back paddle.

174 Time for Poland, the Baltic States and Japan to man up and nuke up.

175 Monty said:

Tens of millions of horny, unmarried chinese men is bad enough; put them into a situation where they can't find jobs either, and you have a recipe for social upheaval and violence on your hands.

I think that they can and will alleviate some of this pressure by forced immigration to Africa and South America.  They seem to be angling for a lock on these continents, so why not?

176 The question of the day for me is - what's the Russian definition of "critical national security situation" and "aggressor"?  I don't think Georgia will like the answer.

177 Wow, we needs us some more of that "smart diplomacy" stuff.  Who's Barry going to let piss on him next?  Does piss work as a polish for Nobel medals?

178 #171   Thank you Pop for your comments. That was a big help.  I have never read about what you just wrote. You cannot even get anywhere near a concise statement as you just did. When you google this, it really gets messy.

179 Brad has a really good point about the nationalist aspect of the Chinese regime.

That will definitely help them but Monty's point about the sexual imbalance is well taken as well.

Also consider the demographic future of China...they are getting old. Fast. Their population is going to start declining at some point and there are going to be a lot of old people to take care of.

The phrase you see a lot is "China will get old before it becomes prosperous".

180 Hmm, I'm wondering: are the Russians setting a trap?  I don't think we're the target (that's one good thing about being a nice, fat carcass -- the vultures don't want to irradiate us just yet).   I don't think China is either (China has too many single, jobless men -- they'd almost welcome a hit I think). So, who's the skinny carcass that's not worth the trouble anymore?  Who can the Russians afford to get rid of (or feel that they need to get rid of)?

181

Posted by: mystry at October 14, 2009 02:26 PM (kmgIE)

My pleasure, mystry.  Getting to know the Israeli system was a real eye-opening experience for me and I was surprised that I had never been taught in school how amazingly unique the American political structure is.

182

From the EVIL Fox News:

Russia and the United States have tentatively agreed to a weapons inspection program that would allow Russians to visit nuclear sites in America to count missiles and warheads. 

The plan, which Fox News has learned was agreed to in principle during negotiations, would constitute the most intrusive weapons inspection program the U.S. has ever accepted. 

Clinton said the U.S. would be as transparent as possible.

Why don't they just give them the codes while they're at it?

183

182 -- and the complimentary doughnuts, don't forget those.

 

Oy.  OY!

184

You guys are all missing the obvious -- the Pres'ent planned this.  He intended it.  It is exactly what he wanted.  

Why, you ask?

 

 

So he has an excuse to boycott the Olympics. 

185 yeah. we're fucked.

186 #48 Mystry

Actually, I think that pull out is very much in the cards and real soon. I posted something in a comment thread elsewhere covering that.

-------------------------------------

-break-
"As far as a realignment in Britain; for them it is literally too late. Britain is gone as a political entity. In what may be a Celtic version of a national Kamikaze attack; Ireland ratified the EU treaty. They have done more to destroy the English by that than by centuries of resistance to the English.

Poland has finished its ratification formalities. The Czech Republic may overthrow its Prime Minister in order to get an immediate ratification [What the EU-crats fear is that a Conservative government that has promised to let Britons have the promised referendum on the EU will do so, and that if they reject it, then Britain is out and the EU hegemony cannot be legally established.].

If the EU treaty goes into force, there will be no United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland for Cameron to be Prime Minister of. The former UK will lose all control of its military, its foreign policy, its trade policy, and in fact all law will be made in Brussels instead of 75% as today. Britain itself will be divided into “regions” for EU purposes; that have no relationship to history, peoples, or culture. Kind of like the Europeans divvied up Africa and the Middle East.

It has been, all along, the hope of Labour to stall the national elections until they are moot. They have succeeded. You can be sure that those caught recently for corruption from the PM on down will be guaranteed lucrative positions in the EU where they will fit right in.

As for the Brits, they will cease to exist as a national entity.

Which brings up one interesting question.

We are tied in a web of both bilateral and multi-lateral treaties with the nation states that are being subsumed [with different degrees of consent of the citizens] into the EU/Fourth Reich. That, incidentally, is NOT a snarky reference to the Third. The original “First Reich” was the sogannante “Holy Roman Empire” under the Franks. It combined what is now France and what is now Germany, plus what are now lesser states. If his son Louis had not divided the Empire amongst his sons Lothair, Pepin, and Louis according to Salic Law, much of European history would not have happened. The EU can be considered a revival of the Frankish Empire.

Now, once a state ceases to exist as an independent entity; treaties with it are void. One has to wonder what the military status of the EU will be in the absence of NATO, and under what rules trade will be conducted in the absence of commercial treaties. After all, we are no longer allies, or have even worked out the nature of our mutual recognition of each other. In any case, the world is very definitely changing. And there is no proof that the change will be for the better."

---break---

"The second concern is what relationship we are going to have with the new EU Reich? We are obviously not allies. We have materially different interests. And with the establishment of the EU Constitution under whatever name, the member states cease to exist. There is actually a precedent for the situation. Prior to the establishment of the 2nd Reich, the German Empire in 1871, we had diplomatic legations in a number of the petty states that were later absorbed by the Hohenzollern Empire. Upon the declaration of the establishment of the German Empire in the Hall of Mirrors at Versailles; those legations and the diplomatic recognition they represented were void and the various treaties in force between them and the United States no longer were in force as the Empire assumed the power of a unified foreign and trade policy for all the member states of the Empire.

There are serious sequalae to this action. Our multilateral and bilateral treaties with the states that now are part of the EU no longer exist under international law. Matters of trade, defense, diplomacy, and technology transfer are now up for grabs.

Under the Westphalian system that still obtains, everything has to be re-negotiated.

To update something I said on another site; you cannot be a little bit pregnant, a little bit at war, or a little bit in command. Add to that, a nation-state cannot just be a little bit sovereign. Such is the real world."

----------------------------------------------

That was part of an argument/discussion with a woman in France who does not think well of the US, except for Buraq. So I did yank her chain in a couple of places. In any case, NATO and the bilateral defense treaties we have right now are very much in the air. The states we signed the treaties with are about to cease to exist, and I cannot see Buraq committing this country to defend anyone, including ourselves. Bosnia may be a special case, because that is UN. But the rest is about to come home just before the Russians or the Jihadi's chase us home.

#143 Grim

Not to worry. They do not need any US nuclear material. Japan gets electricity from over 60 of their own nuclear reactors and can now reprocess the fuel and waste products themselves. And if they can launch a 500 kg. space probe to the asteroid belt, make a soft landing, and return [it is en-route back now], they have everything they need for an ICBM.

Subotai Bahadur

187 Subotai,

You sound very knowledgeable on what is happening with the European treaty,  it seems interesting the hold out the Czechs are showing in not signing on.  I heard it had more to do with the fact the EU contstitution would enforce laws that would be unacceptable to the Czech constitution.  In a sense, it seems as a sweeping reform of Europe to make them all unite under an agenda that will not allow individual state rights to override the EU's.  The Pope went to Czech a couple of weeks ago and admonished for Europe to hold onto its creative cultural identity as first and foremost a Roman Catholic history, just a wonder how it all connects. 

188 Would You Like To Play A Game?
I hate to be *that* *guy*
but I think the quote you're looking for is.
"Shall we play a game?"

189 #187 ellamontgomery

The Czechs actually already signed the Lisbon Treaty [which was the back door route for the rejected EU Constitution which it duplicates word for word in most places], and they are now stalling desperately on the internal process of ratification. They are the last holdout.

Eastern Europe, the former Warsaw Pact, has always been treated as second class citizens by the real rulers of the EU; France, Germany, and Belgium. Their apostasy in rejecting Socialism, their belief in capitalism, and their attachment to the United States made them all but Untouchables. The only ones detested more in Western Europe were the Gypsies and the Turks.

One real point of contention was Eastern Europe's deliberately low tax rates and business friendly laws. It meant that they prospered, and drew companies away from Western Europe and its high taxes and anti-business laws. More heresy.

The former Warsaw Pact countries were not overly eager to exchange Soviet chains for EU chains. But bit by bit, more and more of those chains were imposed in return for the ability to trade on unequal terms [favoring Western Europe]. Their resistance was finally beaten down by a combination of the coming Depression, which is hitting the lower tier of EU countries far worse than us, and the abandonment of Eastern Europe to the Russians by the United States [and that started before the election with our acceptance of the attack on Georgia]. They are sitting there with their private parts waving in a cold wind, broke, and with a hungry Bear growling to the east of them.

IF, and it is a very big IF, the process can be stalled by Czech President Klaus until the May elections in Britain [not likely], the UK Conservatives have promised to allow Britons the referendum on the EU Treaty that Labour promised and lied about. If Britain gets to vote, they will rescind the Labour back room ratification and the whole project goes down.

President Klaus, with the help of the PM, is trying to refer the Treaty back to their Constitutional Court for further review [that will take 6 months at least]. The pro-EU forces in the Czech Republic are trying to bring down the government of Acting PM Jan Fischer, then have President Klaus declared mentally incompetent and replaced by someone who will sign the final ratification immediately. That would impose the EU Constitution on all of the EU immediately and irreversably.

For some reason I am reminded of a meeting in Munich in September 1938 that concerned the predecessor state of Czechoslovakia. If I remember correctly, that did not end well.

Subotai Bahadur

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191 Sweet. I was wondering if my little boy would have enough to worry about.

192 3 

I think the next time anuclear weapon is used it will not involve the US, but instead will involve China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Iran or Israel.

It's dangerous to live on the Asian Continent.

 Posted by: Ben

I wouldn't rule out a Russian tactical nuke against US forces simply because O is such a pussy, looking for reparations. And the Russians could feel honored for acting on Japans behalf. Obama would then apologize for that too.

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199 I like the UGG boots that makes me happy and warm winter.And I think women's ugg boots is a good choice this year.

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