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Generic Congressional Ballot: R's +4 in PPP Poll; R's +7 in Rasmussen

45-41 in Public Policy Polling's new poll.

Check this out:

In your average election year incumbent members of Congress running for reelection get a share of the vote somewhere in the upper 60s. But our newest national poll finds that if there was an election today, only 47% of voters in the country say they would vote to reelect their current Representative, with 33% saying they would definitely vote for a challenger and 20% unsure.

...


That result [the 45-41 R advantage] is largely a function of independents saying they would vote Republican by a margin of 40-31. Democrats and Republicans are mostly committed to their parties, as you would expect.

Among voters who are unhappy with both Congressional Democrats and Republicans [which is most of them -- ace], the GOP leads on the generic ballot 50-14, a reflection of the fact that even if people don't like you they might turn to you as the alternative when you're the party out of power.

And Rasmussen has R's up by seven, 43% to 36%. Republicans kept their same level of support, while Democrats slipped two points.

That represents the lowest level of support for Democrats in recent years, while Republicans have tied their highest level of support for the third straight week...

Throughout the summer of 2008, support for Democratic congressional candidates ranged from 45% to 48%. Republican support ranged from 34% to 37%.

And we all remember what results that advantage produced.

In 1994, when we swept, the GOP was up near 48% on the generic ballot question. We're still aways away from that, at 43%. I think that missing 5% is due to the fact that we don't have a strong affirmative agenda right now, but I trust the GOP is working on that. (It's also due to the fact, as Rasmussen points out, that no one in the country could ever remember a Republican congress and so had no fears of one -- a situation quite different from today.)

We need a Contract for America and a real promise to stop the spending and focus laser-like, in Clinton's famous phrase, on the economy.


Okay, here's some serious cowbell, with an appropriate title, I think. It reflects our mood.

Oh: Since phoenixrisen mentioned it -- here's the only Louie video I can find that isn't the Last Supper one. Light Content Warning for a Guy Who Wants to Dip His Balls Into Stuff.

Thanks to Phoenexrisen.

Posted by: Ace at 03:53 PM



Comments

1 Interesting.  I wonder how many gay republican congressmen ACORN has lined up to out in October 2010?

Posted by: joeindc44 at September 01, 2009 03:55 PM (QxSug)

2 2010 is a long way away.

Posted by: steve at September 01, 2009 03:58 PM (nDZ5w)

3 Got to figure a way to keep the passion going ....

Posted by: bill-tb at September 01, 2009 03:58 PM (iiiMw)

4 I do love me some cowbell.

Posted by: LoneRepublic at September 01, 2009 03:58 PM (84yWb)

5 It makes my pants happy.

Posted by: LoneRepublic at September 01, 2009 03:59 PM (84yWb)

6   2010 is a long way away.

Yes, and never underestimate the GOP leadership's propensity for stepping on their Coney Island Whitesnake.

Posted by: Dang Straights at September 01, 2009 03:59 PM (Haq+B)

7 I congratulate Michael Steele for impersonating a groundhog in sunshine. 

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at September 01, 2009 04:00 PM (XoYY8)

8 Ace, let's assume R's win (and win big) in 2010 and they get majorities in both houses - even if they are slim.

What, exactly, have they done to show you they'll be any different than they were 2 or 4 years ago? What even makes you think they'd be much different than democrats?

Posted by: lorien1973 at September 01, 2009 04:02 PM (IhQuA)

9
How many trillions of dollars did these few approval points cost? Can't imagine what they could get away with before the approval finally hits zero.

Posted by: t-bird at September 01, 2009 04:02 PM (FcR7P)

10 Am starting to get a little concerned at the state (commonwealth?) of the Virginia race--if the newspapers don't go bankrupt (at least financially) before November, they could macaca McDonnell with his college thesis. 

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at September 01, 2009 04:02 PM (XoYY8)

11 This seems like a great time to go RINO hunting.

Posted by: The Crossbow Project in San Diego at September 01, 2009 04:02 PM (H7Rlw)

12 bill-tb at September 01, 2009 03:58 PM (iiiMw)

Work on creasing those pants, boys.

Posted by: David Brooks at September 01, 2009 04:02 PM (IhQuA)

13 Who cares about polls?  Just look at how well the stock market is doing today! Only down 2% - it would be down 50% if My President weren't doing such a great job!

Posted by: palin steele (the only non-partisan on AoSHQ) at September 01, 2009 04:03 PM (VmtE9)

14

I think that missing 5% is due to the fact that we don't have a strong affirmative agenda right now . . .

Time to focus on the all important moderates who make up that five percent!

Posted by: Tinian at September 01, 2009 04:03 PM (7+pP9)

15 This would be great---if they actually let us hold a free election.

Posted by: Kasper Hauser at September 01, 2009 04:06 PM (KeOQp)

16 One man, one vote, one time.

Sorry, Charlie.

Posted by: Rahmbo at September 01, 2009 04:07 PM (5aa4z)

17 #8, I believe they probably will be Democrat-lite.  Big thing is that it buys time in stalling cap and trade and healthcare while the rest of us figure out how to get our government back.  I hope it leads to gridlock and nothing getting accomplished those 2 years. 

Posted by: Just Another Poster at September 01, 2009 04:07 PM (NgoAe)

Posted by: Slublog at September 01, 2009 04:09 PM (qjKko)

19 Oh and one more important thing is that if Reps take back the house, they control the purse strings.  I guarantee that no spending will be done under a Democratic administration.  The Republicans got piggy when the Republicans bucked history twice and won under Bush.  Things were under control with Republicans in Congress and Clinton in the white house and the first two years of Bush.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at September 01, 2009 04:10 PM (NgoAe)

20 I am wondering if this trend is due mainly to dissatisfaction with the health care debacle and cap and trade. Should cap and trade die in the Senate and the health care bill never gets off the ground, would folks forget and would these trends move in favor of the Dems come 2010?

Posted by: IC at September 01, 2009 04:10 PM (jZNCU)

21 Generic preference polls are nice, but what it all comes down to are SPECIFIC "polls" that occur in specific districts on election day.

In particular, what matters is capturing swing/independent voters in districts where Republicans actually have a shot of winning seats. 

Posted by: looking closely at September 01, 2009 04:10 PM (6Q9g2)

22 10 Am starting to get a little concerned at the state (commonwealth?) of the Virginia race--if the newspapers don't go bankrupt (at least financially) before November, they could macaca McDonnell with his college thesis.

_____

Yeah. One of the bad things about the bluing of VA is that now the WaPo's traditional hit piece/ginned up controversy against the Republican in an election is an actual threat.

McDonnell should downplay it, move right past it, and focus on the deficit and the economy. Deeds is a weak candidate, Bobby Mac has beaten him before, and the polls look very good. He's the frontrunner, he should act like it.

Posted by: Britt at September 01, 2009 04:12 PM (DcWbe)

23 Has anyone seen a poll in which a question was asked about a preference for divided government?

Posted by: Jean at September 01, 2009 04:13 PM (L64A6)

24 Let's hope the Republicans have learned their lesson.

Gridlock can be our friend during Jughead's last two years.

Then we can clean up the mess.

Posted by: Vet Missing Parts at September 01, 2009 04:14 PM (MCHyX)

25 Just let me know when it is okay to get excited and do the Baltimore Dippin' Dots.

Posted by: FreakyBoy at September 01, 2009 04:14 PM (4s1it)

26 #20, for the midterms it will not be forgotten.  The Dems pissed off the elderly.  They (rightfully) see their benefits and livelihood threatened by their policies.  The will vote and they will not forget.

Posted by: Just Another Poster at September 01, 2009 04:15 PM (NgoAe)

27 LOVE
THIS
SONG

It is invariably the one that ruins the speakers in my car.

And yes, I am old enough to know better.

Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2009 04:16 PM (OKZrE)

28

Professional pollsters put our chances at 50/50. But there's only a 10% chance of that.

 

BTW - Ace, you get +1 for a clip of Louie from The State. Just got the new DVD box set.

Posted by: Not Navin R Johnson, but Frank Drebbin, Police Squad at September 01, 2009 04:18 PM (J7/Ud)

29 Never underestimate the ability of the GOP to fuc, er, muck it up.

Posted by: LaceyUnderalls at September 01, 2009 04:19 PM (pLTLS)

30 22 10 Am starting to get a little concerned at the state (commonwealth?) of the Virginia race--if the newspapers don't go bankrupt (at least financially) before November, they could macaca McDonnell with his college thesis.

_____

Yeah. One of the bad things about the bluing of VA is that now the WaPo's traditional hit piece/ginned up controversy against the Republican in an election is an actual threat.

McDonnell should downplay it, move right past it, and focus on the deficit and the economy. Deeds is a weak candidate, Bobby Mac has beaten him before, and the polls look very good. He's the frontrunner, he should act like it.

------

Just needs to ask for comparison to Obama's collegiate writing in the Times or challange Deeds to produce something he wrote from that period in his life.  -- or let it die.

Without moving to the left in order to excite the Arlington/Alexandria lefties; Deeds will not get the numbers he needs to win.  I don't think Obama personally campaigning for Deeds would help.

Posted by: Jean at September 01, 2009 04:20 PM (L64A6)

31 I polled my classmates at the interpretive dance studies seminar in SoHo, and Obama's approval number was 99

Why aren't you talking about that poll, ace?

Posted by: dum-dum the non-partisan poll rider at September 01, 2009 04:23 PM (0Lv+U)

32 20 I am wondering if this trend is due mainly to dissatisfaction with the health care debacle and cap and trade. Should cap and trade die in the Senate and the health care bill never gets off the ground, would folks forget and would these trends move in favor of the Dems come 2010?

I think it's as much the bloom coming off the rose for Obama as the crappy policies like ObamaCare and Cap-and-Trade.  A lot of the stupid crap he's done in addition to ObamaCare and Cap-and-Trade has lost him a lot of goodwill with the center and right which will be hard to regain.

He could recover if he was like Bill Clinton and triangulate against an opposing Congress.  He's no Bill Clinton, though.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at September 01, 2009 04:24 PM (8okjW)

33 With the new anti-cursing directive, we'd have to change the chorus on that Nazareth song.  'Now you're messing with a sonnuva Syracuse Soccermom'?

Posted by: Dang Straights at September 01, 2009 04:26 PM (Haq+B)

34 31 I polled my classmates at the interpretive dance studies seminar in SoHo, and Obama's approval number was 99

Why aren't you talking about that poll, ace?

Posted by: dum-dum the non-partisan poll rider at September 01, 2009 04:23 PM (0Lv+U)

Yeah! No one I know is a Republican either.

Posted by: Pauline Kael in San Diego at September 01, 2009 04:27 PM (H7Rlw)

35 This is a huge blow to the hopes of the world. This is worse than Dunkirk

Posted by: Matt Cooper, drama reporter at September 01, 2009 04:28 PM (0Lv+U)

36 Gotta give props to Brandon over at HHR Ace.  He pointed this out.  Amazing stuff.  Lots of Dem politicians would be applying for jobs in the private sector if the mid-terms were around the corner.

Posted by: phoenixrisen at September 01, 2009 04:33 PM (ihWM2)

37 what's hhr?

Posted by: slublog sockpuppet at September 01, 2009 04:35 PM (d6tLI)

38 I think the reason Obama's poll numbers are tanking are because of him personally.
He was sold as "brilliant" by the MSM, despite a complete lack of evidence, and he's yet to do something brilliant or even remotely intelligent.
Even if you agree with his policies Obama's methods are sorely lacking.



Posted by: Rocks at September 01, 2009 04:39 PM (Q1lie)

39 Sippin me a celabratory Doc Peppa right now!

Posted by: rightzilla at September 01, 2009 04:40 PM (rVJH4)

40 Hedgehog Report

Posted by: phoenixrisen at September 01, 2009 04:40 PM (ihWM2)

41

I polled my classmates at the interpretive dance studies seminar in SoHo

I bet you did!

 

Posted by: dananjcon at September 01, 2009 04:40 PM (1B81L)

42 As far as Repubs messing it up, they were okay till they got the White House too and started trying to buy votes instead of earning them ala the Dems so they are okay till 2012 at least.

Posted by: Rocks at September 01, 2009 04:41 PM (Q1lie)

43

These are the sickos with whom Barry wishes to engage.  

 

Sheeesh.

 

Warning: Not for the squimish.

 

Sorry - had to get it out.  Via Solomonia

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 01, 2009 04:42 PM (RkRxq)

44

Yes, but I believe "get rid of all of them" has 57% in favor and 18% undecided.  The rest are government workers and lobbyists.

It's time for a Constitutional amendment - term limits, and members of Congress may not be exempted from any law passed by them.  Then they all go to prison for lying to a federal agent, for starters, as soon as the next show trial hearings are held.

Posted by: MarkD at September 01, 2009 04:44 PM (MMy4A)

45 31 I polled my classmates at the interpretive dance studies seminar in SoHo, and Obama's approval number was 99

Why aren't you talking about that poll, ace?

LOL!

I have a crazy liberal cousin who actually teaches interpretive dance in Texas.

Sorry, in Austin. There's a difference, I know.

Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2009 04:44 PM (OKZrE)

46 37 what's hhr?

Posted by: slublog sockpuppet at September 01, 2009 04:35 PM (d6tLI)

Hip Hop Republican, and Brandon Brice is one of those "Republicans" that think the GOP is filled with haters because too many of us do not embrace gay marriage. Think of a male Meghan McCain.

Posted by: Pauline Kael in San Diego at September 01, 2009 04:44 PM (H7Rlw)

47 The only thing that makes the fall of the Dems. bitter sweet is that it means the R's will win seats.  Yes, Gonorrhea is better to have than the clap, but Gonorrhea sucks too.

Posted by: Mons Pubis at September 01, 2009 04:46 PM (o5vMm)

48 43

These are the sickos with whom Barry wishes to engage.  

 

Sheeesh.

 

Warning: Not for the squimish.

 

Sorry - had to get it out.  Via Solomonia

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 01, 2009 04:42 PM (RkRxq)

"If the judgment for the [female] prisoner is execution, then rape before execution brings the interrogator a spiritual reward equivalent to making the mandated Haj pilgrimage [to Mecca], but if there is no execution decreed, then the reward would be equivalent to making a pilgrimage to [the Shi'ite holy city of] Karbala."...

Posted by: Pauline Kael in San Diego at September 01, 2009 04:47 PM (H7Rlw)

49 Damn sock puppets!

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at September 01, 2009 04:47 PM (H7Rlw)

50

Okay, I'm trying to figure out how to say this without being all moby-ish.  When I think of the 1994 revolution, I think of a bunch of Republicans sweeping into office with a bunch of conservative-ish promises/goals, who then forgot about most of them and became part of the problem within a term or two of being elected.  I think I'm a bit too cynical to be hopeful about any kind of conservatism taking root in either party at this point.  To me, it's a choice of dying quickly (liberals in power), or dying at a more leisurely pace (republicans in power). 

I'd love to be wrong about that.

Posted by: Cautiously Pessimistic at September 01, 2009 04:48 PM (pZEar)

51 Makes me happier than a California Handshake in a Backseat Bistro.

Posted by: Max Power at September 01, 2009 04:48 PM (q177U)

52 rape before execution brings the interrogator a spiritual reward equivalent to making the mandated Haj pilgrimage [to Mecca], but if there is no execution decreed, then the reward would be equivalent to making a pilgrimage to [the Shi'ite holy city of] Karbala."...

Allah: You said rape twice
Imam: I like rape.

Posted by: Dang Straights at September 01, 2009 04:49 PM (Haq+B)

53

Since neither the GOP nor Michael Steele seem to be able to do it, I'll give it a try.

The New Contract for America

If we regain control of the US House of Representatives, we promise the following to our fellow citizens.

1. We will voluntarily limit ourselves to two terms of service.

2. We will immediately repeal the unspent portion of Obama's Stimulus Bill.

3. We will defeat the Cap and Trade Bill.

4. We will repeal all EPA mandates and rules instituted prior to 1980. All restrictions on domestic oil and natural gas exploration and production will be repealed. The construction of new nuclear power plants and oil refineries will be fast-tracked. We will denounce the notion of global warming as false and repeal any legislation that uses this as its basis for law.

5. Gitmo will remain open. Enhanced interrogation will become mandatory for any foreign fighter captured, followed by execution in accordance with Geneva Convention rules. No aspect of sharia law shall be instituted in any way, by any organization, for any reason.

6. We will balance the budget and implement a flat tax not to exceed 8 per cent of gross income for individuals and corporations.

7. We will eliminate the Capital Gains tax for a period of three years and reinstitute it at a rate of 10 per cent. This rate will not be altered for ten years.

8. We will secure our border with Mexico immediately and actively work to deport all illegal aliens in accordance with our laws.

Whew. I'm not finished, but I am tired. Anywho, my point is to establish firm policies and stick to them. Show some real strength and we'll win.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at September 01, 2009 04:49 PM (ZGhSv)

54 "....no one in the country could ever remember a Republican congress and so had no fears of one -- a situation quite different from today...."

What I remember about the late Republican Congress was that the longer it went on, the more it acted like Democrat-lite. Maybe now that thinking people have had a dose of the real thing, they'll accept a substitute.

Cordially...

Posted by: Rick at September 01, 2009 04:52 PM (AIKsa)

55

BACKWARDS BOY FOR POTUS!!

Posted by: dananjcon at September 01, 2009 04:52 PM (1B81L)

56 Gotta give props to Brandon over at HHR Ace.

Err, what? 'Give props' to some other blogger who pointed to a published poll?

Why?

Posted by: Iskandar at September 01, 2009 04:55 PM (uAJI5)

57

HeHeHe

Breitbart:

Clunkers boosts Ford sales; Chrysler sales fall

Posted by: dananjcon at September 01, 2009 04:56 PM (1B81L)

58 Okay, I'm trying to figure out how to say this without being all moby-ish.

Kinda agree with you're assessment.  I'll push all the way out to the end of the moby branch of the tree and add that the utter waste of impeaching Bubba for the lying about the Paula Jones matter didn't help matters.

Go ahead and light me up folks.

Posted by: rockhead at September 01, 2009 05:02 PM (RykTt)

59 Once again, now is the time to get onto your local R committees, which might actually give you some chance of influencing who Rs nominate to retake these congressional seats.

Posted by: mr.frakypants at September 01, 2009 05:08 PM (pffBj)

60

What I remember about the late Republican Congress was that the longer it went on, the more it acted like Democrat-lite. Maybe now that thinking people have had a dose of the real thing, they'll accept a substitute.

Nope.  That's where I get lost.  My only semi-realistic hope for the country avoiding the socialism pit is for moves to be made so quickly and so bluntly that it jars people awake, and they start agitating to adhere to founding principles.  Performing a slow descent into socialism just keeps people drowsy so they don't resist as much to the gradual changes. 

To that end, I'd much rather have a hardcore leftist in power that lurches towards the cliff than a McCain-ish socialism-lite guy that makes slow and steady moves towards the cliff.  Of course, I'd much rather have a conservative (in the constitutional sense) in power, but if that's not possible, I'd rather people at least be awake and screaming when the lights go out.

Posted by: Cautiously Pessimistic at September 01, 2009 05:11 PM (pZEar)

61 We keep talking about taking back congress...well, this time we better not just take it back but actually USE the power it gives. We sat around with a great contract with America and did little with it. This time, wear the big boy pants and git er done!

Posted by: rightzilla at September 01, 2009 05:17 PM (rVJH4)

62 "59 Once again, now is the time to get onto your local R committees, which might actually give you some chance of influencing who Rs nominate to retake these congressional seats.

Posted by: mr.frakypants at September 01, 2009 05:08 PM (pffBj)"


One of the best posts ever.


Grass roots.

Posted by: jukin at September 01, 2009 05:35 PM (vkkNZ)

63 Let's just hope the Dems keep doing what they do best.  Fuck up everything they touch while continuing their Maria Antoinette pose inside the Beltway.

"This time, wear the big boy pants and git er done!"

I definitely want the Republican party to be purged.  That being said, any political course of action will be highly unpopular if anything is pushed onto the masses without serious debate during the election.  We are at a point where there is going to be pain for everyone, and soft-selling it until the election is over will bring the same chaos that we are seeing now.   It will be a case of political thrashing and impotency.

The thing that people need to be convinced of is that the pain of tight fiscal policy is temporary and at least managed, and is much better than being deferred and imposed by impartial and cruel economic forces  .

Posted by: Mr. Peabody at September 01, 2009 05:41 PM (BIwsj)

64 First....Huh?....shit.

Posted by: hutch1200 at September 01, 2009 06:04 PM (8nlZI)

65

As Ace said a few days ago, nobody'll come out and say that the Republicans will actually win the House.

And no one outs a Super Bowl point spread over 14 points any more -- like with Super Bowl XXII -- the Redskins weren't going to actually win against the Broncos, but they were going to keep the score close.

Posted by: FireHorse at September 01, 2009 06:33 PM (a2H6z)

66 "Should cap and trade die in the Senate and the health care bill never gets off the ground, would folks forget and would these trends move in favor of the Dems come 2010?"

I say no. The crazy lib Dems, at the point of no return, will have painted themselves as the ones who could do it again, who want to do it but couldn't. They've exposed themselves & their agenda. No going back in the public's mind. It will forevermore be the question of "what are they capable of" now.

Posted by: Twinks at September 01, 2009 07:07 PM (wjosM)

67 58 Okay, I'm trying to figure out how to say this without being all moby-ish.

Kinda agree with you're assessment.  I'll push all the way out to the end of the moby branch of the tree and add that the utter waste of impeaching Bubba for the lying about the Paula Jones matter didn't help matters.

Go ahead and light me up folks.

_________

*Lights flamethrower with Zippo*

We impeached him for perjury, not for "lying". Lying is not illegal, lying under oath is. It's bad enough to accept and tolerate politicians lying to us, it's beyond the pale to allow them to lie under oath and get away with it.

We've all heard the phrase "Power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely." What's interesting is that Lord Acton was not speaking of power turning good men into bad men. Clinton was always a liar. Lord Acton's dictum is referring to the tendency of some to forgive the powerful for transgressions they would not tolerate in normal people. If you or I lied under oath we would be punished.  The impeachment of Clinton was important, because the rule of law is something worth fighting for.


Posted by: Britt at September 01, 2009 07:09 PM (DcWbe)

68

Some feeeback (not intended to be criticism) on #53:

1. We will voluntarily limit ourselves to two terms of service.

Make it three terms. No one would give up that sweet pension.

2. We will immediately repeal the unspent portion of Obama's Stimulus Bill.

This might turn a lame-duck Obama administration into "Brewster's Trillions."

5. Gitmo will remain open.

I cut that down to your first four words.

6. We will balance the budget and implement a flat tax not to exceed 8 per cent of gross income for individuals and corporations.

How about, "We will vote against any new tax, and against any increase in existing taxes."

Also: "We will introduce bills which will reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% by 2020."

8. We will secure our border with Mexico immediately and actively work to deport all illegal aliens in accordance with our laws.

Broaden it to something like "The security of the United States shall always be our top priority." Then move it to the top.

I really like your solutions-oriented approach, BackwardsBoy. Keep 'em coming.

Posted by: FireHorse at September 01, 2009 08:37 PM (a2H6z)

69

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Posted by: jason at September 01, 2009 09:50 PM (HuqRf)

70

8. We will secure our border with Mexico immediately and actively work to deport all illegal aliens in accordance with our laws.

Broaden it to something like "The security of the United States shall always be our top priority." Then move it to the top.

If you want to make this an easier sell politically, while still providing an effective solution, how about prosecuting companies and their hiring managers/executives that employ illegal aliens?  This has been shown in the states that tried this to be an effective deterent to illegal immigrants taking up residence. 

I believe securing our borders should be done, as well, but cut off the freebies and employment, and illegal aliens will deport themselves.  No need to spend resources on something they'll do themselves.

Posted by: Cautiously Pessimistic at September 01, 2009 10:15 PM (pZEar)

71 Generic Congressional Ballot: R's +4 in PPP Poll; R's +7 in Rasmussen Whatever happens, what can't be overstressed is, NO RINOs, please.

Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at September 01, 2009 10:24 PM (jV9DU)

72 It's all well and good that the "generic Republicans" are doing so well in the polls.....but who are these guys? When showtime comes around next year, will the Pubs just throw some warm bodies out there, or some real leaders?

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