Defending the CNN Poll, a Little

CNN's poll has Obama dropping 10 points in 100 days.

Ed criticizes the poll, which still puts Obama at an unexpectedly-high 56% support, but he's off-base in this specific criticism, I'm pretty sure:

Interviews with 1,136 adult Americans, including an oversample of African-Americans, conducted by telephone by Opinion Research Corporation on July 31-August 3, 2009. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Did they correct for that oversample? Did they weight the responses? CNN’s polling data doesn’t explain at all, which leads one to the conclusion that they kept the oversample in the final data.

Oversampling does not mean overweighting.

If you want to, say, conduct a broad national poll but also make specific conclusions about what a minority might think, you have to oversample them. I think the minimum -- minimum -- number of respondents you need to put out numbers for any question is around 400. The academic/business organization that sets standards for this sort of thing is the AAPOR, sets 400 as the minimum number for meaningful results for any poll question -- and that includes a sub-segment of the poll's total universe of respondents, too.

So, to get meaningful results from black respondents specifically, you need 400 of them. At a minimum.

Now, blacks are like 12% of the population so if you are polling 1000 Americans you're likely to only get 120 blacks. That's fine, if you don't want to report specific responses from the black population.

But if you want to report those responses, and want them to actually be statistically meaningful, you need to get that sub-cohort up around 400.

Does that mean they didn't weight black responses back down? No, of course they did. Any polling company which didn't would be setting itself up for not only ridicule but loss of business, as its competitors pointed out the gross error of postulating a 37% black US population.

They weighted them back down to 12%, or 13%, or whatever the current Census figures indicate.

As for polling adults rather than voters: Well, it's true that adults are the least predictive sample... if you're predicting election results. If you don't care about who wins an election, but rather only what adults think, whether they vote or not, it's the appropriate sample.

In this case, their decision was likely made not according to what they really wanted to measure -- adult mood or likely future election results -- but according to cost. Anytime you screen out respondents, it costs you money. You spend more on your callers' salaries (paid by the hour, mostly) because they're making many more phone calls than they're actually generating responses (i.e., stuff you can use in your poll).

In this case, CNN had already made one costly decision -- calling lots of people to try to get those 400 black respondents -- and cheaped out on making it more costly by screening for voters (or, even more costly, likely voters).

At any rate, there are a lot of ways that a pollster can manipulate results -- the biggest assumption being about current party identification figures, those being kinda anyone's guess and therefore pretty variable between pollsters -- but grossly overweighting a well-known and easily-checked stat like "percentage of blacks in the US" isn't one of them.

I mention this not to call Ed out, but because it's, well, true, and I've been seeing stray references to an "oversampled CNN poll" in the comments.

By the Way: The minimum 400 rule gets violated all the time.

The media violates it all the time when they report statistically-insignificant stuff like "unmarried Asian females," a group their poll sampled like, what, three of? You asked three unmarried Asian females a question and now you're gonna get all conclude-y about them?

But polling companies themselves aren't supposed to. They too will write lots of analysis about tiny sample-size questions and pass those to clients, to demonstrate they're "getting their money's worth," but they're not supposed to. A lot of those micro-sized break-out questions are absolutely meaningless and the AAPOR says not to report them at all.

One Other Way the Media Biases Polls: They bury polls they don't like and trash their own polls.

I forget which poll it was, but one of the big networks found a lot of support for McCain/Palin, and simply didn't report the poll. When they eventually did have to report it (embarrassed into it), they trashed it.

Now that poll was probably a bad poll.

But when a network finds support for Obama and the Democrats at a suspiciously-high level, they don't bury or trash their poll. They vigorously promote it, claiming it heralds a major come-back or blah blah blah.

If they were being honest and consistent, they'd either report all polls equally enthusiastically, or equally bury/trash polls that were out of kilter with other polls.

They don't. They don't mind when their polls come in overly-optimistically for the Democrats. To them it's win-lose -- hey, it's a garbage poll, but we win, because we inject a little optimism into our Democratic friends.

A poll coming in too high for the GOP is lose-lose, and they trash it.

Heh: Ed's right about this:

One of the questions asked, “How do you personally feel about Barack Obama being president?”, has the following options for response: Thrilled, Happy, Don’t Care, Unhappy, Depressed, No Opinion. Depressed? CNN offers two kinds of responses for happy, one for unhappy, and one that asks people to diagnose themselves with a clinical disease.

Not just a disease, but a sin, isn't it? Don't Catholics teach that allowing yourself to stew in depression is self-indulgent and sinful?

Biased. Why not "very displeased"?

Or maybe CNN can really cook the books and ask,

"How do you personally feel about the President?"

Happy, plus I'm really good-looking

Unhappy, and I've gone all pear-shaped and I smell like funky cheese

Angry, crazed, and racist, and also my dick is the size of watch-battery and/or I've got chronic swamp-ass

Posted by: Ace at 01:30 PM

Comments

1 But in either case it still looks bad for Obama, no matter how they try to weigh it.

Posted by: Alex at August 06, 2009 01:35 PM (sAP8F)

2 All polls are shit, particularly ones from CNN/ABC/CBS/NBC et al..

Posted by: Vic at August 06, 2009 01:36 PM (CDUiN)

War on Terror Over: (heard @ on Rush)

http://tinyurl.com/mfvsgt

Obama replaces 'global war on terror' in strategy shift

President Barack Obama is replacing the "global war on terror" with a new strategy more narrowly focused on Al-Qaeda and relying more on a broader effort to engage the Muslim world, a top aide said Thursday.

John Brennan, Obama's chief counter-terrorism advisor, said Al-Qaeda remains a "persistent and evolving threat" to the United States and is being aggressively targeted by the new administration.

"But describing our efforts as a 'global war' only plays into the warped narrative that Al-Qaeda propagates," Brennan said in comments prepared for delivery to a think tank here.

"It plays into the misleading and dangerous notion that the US is somehow in conflict with the rest of the world," he said.

He said Obama was bringing to the issue "a fundamentally new and more effective approach" by attacking the longer-term problem of Muslim extremism through diplomacy and political and economic strategies.

"Indeed, the counterinsurgency lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan apply equally to the broader fight against extremism: we cannot shoot ourselves out of this challenge," he said.

"We can take out all the terrorists we want -- their leadership and their foot soldiers. But if we fail to confront the broader political, economic, and social conditions in which extremists thrive, then there will always be another recruit in the pipeline, another attack coming downstream," he said

Posted by: momma at August 06, 2009 01:37 PM (penCf)

4
Fuck it.

Posted by: Tweet Diamond Phillips at August 06, 2009 01:38 PM (jVldi)

5
We have a War on Weather, now.

Posted by: Tweet Diamond Phillips at August 06, 2009 01:41 PM (jVldi)

6 I wonder if CNN writes the story from the polling firm's analysis or on their own from the crosstabs and internals.

If they are paraphrasing the polling firm's professional analysis, then I agree with Ace. If not, and their own hacks get to grab numbers from the basket then they will likely cherry pick the data for there man.

Did they release the actual work product from the polling firm in support of the story?

Posted by: Jean at August 06, 2009 01:41 PM (L64A6)

7 "They weighted them back down to 12%, or 13%, or whatever the current
Census figures indicate."

But how do you know? That's Ed's point. We dont' know because they didn't publish the details, right?

"Any polling company which didn't would be setting itself up for not only ridicule but loss of business,.."

Or they do exactly what they were hired to do: oversample for a happy, happy fun, fun result. It depends on what the company was asked to do. Push polling and polling for internal research are two different beasts. One's designed to affect PO and one is for accurate data.

Posted by: Chimney Sweep #8 at August 06, 2009 01:42 PM (kIjlp)

Quit lying! That poll shows My President UP 100 points in 10 days! Just like NASDAQ!

Get on the short bus!

Posted by: Where's Poon? at August 06, 2009 01:44 PM (tcMQZ)

9 You asked three unmarried Asian females a question and now you're gonna get all conclude-y about them?

Are they hot?

Posted by: nickless at August 06, 2009 01:46 PM (MMC8r)

Posted by: momma at August 06, 2009 01:37 PM (penCf) -

Maybe they should try to get hezbollah to quit teaching all the kids from kindergarten up to hate all the Joooos.

Posted by: teej at August 06, 2009 01:48 PM (QdUKm)

11 Thanks for using the word "cohort" correctly--it denotes erudition on your part.

Posted by: Pete Drum at August 06, 2009 01:49 PM (G9zAU)

12 Posted by: Where's Poon? at August 06, 2009 01:44 PM (tcMQZ)

I was wondering the same. Last night was the regular wednesday astroturf strategy session, it must be taking a while to put the proper spin on things.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 06, 2009 01:50 PM (Haq+B)

13 We polled 535 Congressmen and have can inform you that Obama is awesome and stealing trillions from your children is exhilarating!

Posted by: t-bird at August 06, 2009 01:50 PM (FcR7P)

14 The economic issues that drive Islamic terrorism seem to be crazy Muslims with too much money. I'm all up for fixing that.

and the "social condition" seems to be Islam; is Brennan drifting into Ann Coulter territory here.

Posted by: Jean at August 06, 2009 01:52 PM (L64A6)

15 >>> If not, and their own hacks get to grab numbers from the basket then they will likely cherry pick the data for there man.

Let me say that that would be such a blatant and unprofessional distortion, with real-world implications (loss of business from all the firms your competitors just showed your crap data to) that it is kinda stretching it to suspect it absent any evidence.

They didn't do that.

The 56% approval rating is easily explained-- they polled ADULTS. Polls of adults always have 4-6 extra "bonus points" for the dems than polls of likelies.

As we can already explain the difference, why posit new explanations?

Posted by: ace at August 06, 2009 01:52 PM (S+TBP)

1,136 adult Americans

Americans, not voters. This poll is meaningless, even if it favors us.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 01:54 PM (XH/G8)

17 whoops, I meant that in response to this:

>>>But how do you know? That's Ed's point. We dont' know because they didn't publish the details, right?

to jean's question:

>>>If not, and their own hacks get to grab numbers from the basket then they will likely cherry pick the data for there man.

they definitely do that, no question.

but still, on the big numbers, they can fudge the numbers some but at the end of the day if they're claiming that 55% of the country are Democrats and 33% are black, well, come on.

Posted by: ace at August 06, 2009 01:55 PM (S+TBP)

18 Hey Ace, are there any black vans sitting outside your house yet?

Posted by: katya at August 06, 2009 01:57 PM (Yh7Mt)

19 >>> This poll is meaningless, even if it favors us.

it's not meaningless if you want to know what 'adults" think.

we also know that a lot of these guys overweight Democrats. So we know polls like CNN's consistently overstate Democratic support by 2-4 points.

Plus, polls have an MOE. Most likely CNN got a bad sample, even a bit worse than the bad sample they were already shooting for.

Posted by: ace at August 06, 2009 01:57 PM (S+TBP)

20 "... their own hacks ..." is a reference to CNN's hacks, not the polling firms.

Posted by: Jean at August 06, 2009 01:58 PM (L64A6)

21 i know and yeah I think they do that.

Their hacks are also not pollsters so to them all numbers seem to have the same statistical validity, when they don't.

I was hugely amused how the NYT would report every drop in Bush's approval rating in the headline, but when Bush's approval rose (and for years it bounced around in a 10 point range, going up three points one week, down three the next) they would suddenly lose all interest in the approval rating and report something like "PUBLIC INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT NATURAL GAS PRICES, POLL FINDS."

Yeah. Because that was really headline-worthy, eh?

Posted by: ace at August 06, 2009 02:01 PM (S+TBP)

it's not meaningless if you want to know what 'adults" think.

Okay, fair enough. But... "Americans" don't vote, so I guess what I mean is, it's irrelevant for election tracking.

we also know that a lot of these guys overweight Democrats. So we know polls like CNN's consistently overstate Democratic support by 2-4 points.

Yeah. CNN is sort of garbage. Since we're guessing on how much they're oversampling, why don't we just guess about the public feelings about Obama? I bet we could construct a more accurate number than CNN could by asking people.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 02:01 PM (XH/G8)

23 O/T: just asked on CNBC "why would the government come out early and say that unemployment will exceed 9 1/2%?" Good question.

Posted by: disappointed O voter at August 06, 2009 02:03 PM (p302b)

24 I think the problem is the use of the media as an intermediary. I would like to see a blended (multiple firms) report on a set of persistent issues collected and reported with a peer-review practices and procedures -- dropped right onto the web, once a week.

Posted by: Jean at August 06, 2009 02:05 PM (L64A6)

OT Was Obama counting on this when he gave so much responsibility to the FDIC?

The FDIC is in trouble

^{The FDIC insures 8,246 institutions, with $13.5 trillion in assets. Not all of them are going bankrupt, of course. Yet as of late July, a disturbing 64 banks had gone belly up this year – the most since 1992 – costing the FDIC $12.5 billion. At the end of Q1, the agency was already asking for emergency funding.}

^{Other measures of how serious the losses at banks are becoming can be seen in the chart below, which shows charge-offs and non-current loans at all banks. You can see that the Net Charge-offs remain stubbornly high, with banks charging off almost $40 billion in bad loans in the last two quarters alone. And the number of non-current loans – loans where payments are not being kept up – is soaring.

Together, these measures indicate the potential for more big failures and more big bailouts coming down the pike.}

^{Into the battle against bank insolvency the Fed brings a level of reserves that can best be described as paper-thin. From almost $60 billion last fall, the FDIC’s reserves have been drawn down to only about $13 billion today, a 16-year low. A quick look at the FDIC’s own data shows us how inadequate those reserves are compared to the deposits they are now insuring.}^{For starters, they are expanding their mandate by guaranteeing bank loans – $350 billion and counting at this point. And the government has tapped the FDIC to play a pivotal role in guaranteeing the loans issued to buy toxic waste through the government’s highly problematic and fraud-prone new Private Public Investment Partnership (PPIP). The FDIC’s commitment to the PPIP is and may become limited based on its resources.}^{It is hard to draw any other conclusion but that hundreds of billions in new funding will be required to keep the FDIC operating. Given the catastrophic consequences of the FDIC failing, starting with a bank run of biblical proportions, there’s no question it will get whatever funding it needs. By loading the new loan guarantee responsibilities and the PPIP onto the FDIC’s back, the administration will go back to Congress and ask for the next large bailout.}

Posted by: momma at August 06, 2009 02:08 PM (penCf)

momma @ 3

In fact the WOT ended Jan. 20 of this year. They are just now getting around to making it official

/but of course, I've been saying this for months, to the consternation of some here.

Posted by: maddogg at August 06, 2009 02:12 PM (OlN4e)

27
Speaking of biased media...

remember how during the Bush years they put a negative spin on the sales figures during the Christmas shopping season?

Now they're spinning for Obama even though the economy is far worse than it was with Bush.

Posted by: Tweety Davis Jr. at August 06, 2009 02:12 PM (jVldi)

28 The FDIC will just have to increase the payment to the fund from all the banks.

Posted by: disappointed O voter at August 06, 2009 02:14 PM (p302b)

29 So where's that guy who yells "en fuego!" Because Ace and the crew are on fire.

Posted by: joncelli at August 06, 2009 02:14 PM (RD7QR)

I THINK I KNOW WHO THE OBAMA JOKER ARTIST IS

An artist named Stephen T. from the Dallas, Texas area of all places. Not certain, but if so you heard it here first. (don't want to give full name or exact location in case I'm wrong)

Posted by: JDW at August 06, 2009 02:14 PM (uw+0A)

31 I think this post is about Democrats being overweight or something. That's so mean.

Posted by: Meghan McCain at August 06, 2009 02:14 PM (SCcgT)

Oh, shit this was NOT the Hope and Change I was looking for!

Who the baby's daddy be?

http://tinyurl.com/mn6jep

Posted by: John Edwards at August 06, 2009 02:14 PM (qvT/A)

33 Am a little anxious about this business of joining the world court, anyone else? wonder how many complaints the SEC gets and how many they actually follow up on and how many they ignore?

Posted by: disappointed O voter at August 06, 2009 02:15 PM (p302b)

Question: why would the state run media report this at all? Unless he has dropped more than 10 points or because there is an implicit warning in it that there isn't enough spin and the "enemy" is getting through. I've always thought that his "support" was overrated anyway. He didn't win by that big a margin and I think alot of that was fraud, media propaganda push, and echo chamber voting.

Here in Virginia the democrat for governor is going to lose because the fraud machine and the ACORN machine are not going to turn out for him like they did for Obama. The "first time voters" from the last election won't even know there is an election between two middle aged white guys. You read it here first.

Posted by: Dagny Tagert at August 06, 2009 02:15 PM (f3S34)

35 Did anyone else nnotice that tthere's a bit of a sttutter here?

Posted by: reason at August 06, 2009 02:16 PM (+hPIb)

36 JDW, why would you want to name the person at all? They already gave up their revenue from all the t shirts and posters and such. Maybe they want to be anonymous since look at the reaction of everyone to this.

Posted by: disappointed O voter at August 06, 2009 02:17 PM (p302b)

37
Why doesn't George Allen run for governor?

Posted by: Tweet Diamond Phillips at August 06, 2009 02:17 PM (jVldi)

38 Oh, just wait until the christmas shopping season rolls around. The media will suddenly find the malls just TEEMING with shoppers. Yes, PACKED! Packed so tight you have to use a telescope to see them!

Posted by: joncelli at August 06, 2009 02:17 PM (RD7QR)

39 Strangely, no mention of the religious conditions in which extremists thrive.

3
We can take out all the terrorists we want -- their leadership and their foot soldiers. But if we fail to confront the broader political, economic, and social conditions in which extremists thrive, then there will always be another recruit in the pipeline, another attack coming downstream," he said.

Posted by: Pyrocles at August 06, 2009 02:17 PM (xzSvW)

Disappointed,

...damn...

I'm such an unthinking doucher. Now you have me hoping I'm very wrong. Sorry.

Posted by: JDW at August 06, 2009 02:18 PM (uw+0A)

36 JDW, why would you want to name the person at all? They already gave up their revenue from all the t shirts and posters and such. Maybe they want to be anonymous since look at the reaction of everyone to this.

Asked and answered, Your Honor.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 02:18 PM (XH/G8)

42 But if we fail to confront the broader political, economic, and social conditions in which extremists thrive

Interesting, when he and his party are in overdrive trying to recreate those conditions at home.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at August 06, 2009 02:19 PM (NtiET)

43 Why doesn't George Allen run for governor?

The macaca thing pretty much tarnished him for the foreseeable future.

Posted by: joncelli at August 06, 2009 02:19 PM (RD7QR)

44 For the record, I have heard rumors that it was an art student in the midwest in January, not a Texan

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 02:19 PM (XH/G8)

45 I'm just kinda waiting for the other shoe to drop where some left-wing nutter comes out of the woodwork and says he made the Obama poster as an example of Right-wing hysteria.

Posted by: JDW at August 06, 2009 02:20 PM (uw+0A)

46
joncelli, Allen lost by only 4k votes. I think Virginians are over macacagate.

Posted by: Tweet Diamond Phillips at August 06, 2009 02:21 PM (jVldi)

45 I'm just kinda waiting for the other shoe to drop where some left-wing nutter comes out of the woodwork and says he made the Obama poster as an example of Right-wing hysteria.

Can you walk me through how that would work? How would it hurt the right if it was all manufactured by the left?

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 02:21 PM (XH/G8)

48 I've said this before but I think it is important enough to say again here. Bernie somebody (on Beck's show a while back) said that the media this election and now during the presidency left their bias at the door and became full on activists. How can we stop this? I mean targeting advertisers is okay but can be difficult. I tried to not buy toys for my kids that were made in China after that lead thing a few years ago, and it was HARD! Anyway, I'm pissed. Ugh.

Posted by: Trish at August 06, 2009 02:22 PM (0U5Kd)

49 I'm just kinda waiting for the other shoe to drop where some left-wing nutter comes out of the woodwork and says he made the Obama poster as an example of Right-wing hysteria.

It's a meme now; the thing is out of the original designer's hands to add to or detract from it.

Posted by: joncelli at August 06, 2009 02:22 PM (RD7QR)

Truman,

I don't subsribe to that notion. I've just been reading a slolwy growing number of posts at Wapo/USA Today/NYT boards where some smirking lefties are thinking the image is "ironic" or "meta-satire" or some such bullshit. Posts like this one from a Wapo thread:

"I think the poster is ironic. Its shows the truth about the crazy right-wingers - they have no idea what the definition of socialism is. Because while Obama is not a socialist no matter what they might want to believe, but the Joker is REALLY not a socialist. I would categorize him as an anarchist."

Posted by: JDW at August 06, 2009 02:25 PM (uw+0A)

51 joncelli, Allen lost by only 4k votes. I think Virginians are over macacagate.

If so, run him again against Webb. I'm pretty sure Virginians didn't get what they thought they were getting by voting for him.

Posted by: joncelli at August 06, 2009 02:25 PM (RD7QR)

52 Absolutely Tagert.

They could not get the vote out in Arlington/Alexandria for Moran in the primary -- it certainly won't come out in an off-year election for Deeds. The Republicans may sweep the races this cycle.

Posted by: Jean at August 06, 2009 02:26 PM (L64A6)

53 That's one tenth of a point a day!

En Fuego!

Posted by: Pinch-hitting for the guy that yells En Fuego! at August 06, 2009 02:26 PM (Haq+B)

Joncelli,

That's more my thinking as well. But it'd be nice if the artist, if he were to reveal himself, were a bold, card carrying libertarian or republican than some mealy mouthed punk putting crosses in jars of urine. Nothing would be a quicker death for an artists credibility than to proclaim himself sympathetic to the right. Hence, if the artist openly proves to be then s/he has big brass ones.

Posted by: JDW at August 06, 2009 02:27 PM (uw+0A)

55 Meh. Damage is done. It can only get worse for President Joker now.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 02:27 PM (XH/G8)

56 One thing that's particularly sad about this poll is that 7% have never heard of Joe Biden (page 4).

And 1% have never heard of Michelle Obama (page 5).

How is it possible to A. be available by phone for a CNN poll, but B. to never have heard of the vice president or first lady?

Yikes!

Posted by: Ortho at August 06, 2009 02:27 PM (hikr8)

57 Yesterday the FOX panel was discussing the 'mob' wording and 2 out of the 3 panel dummies (not Sour Kraut) kept saying it was kind of wrong to refer to the MOB as a mob. The kept saying the mob, the mob. Then on the topic of the WH e-mail requesting people to snitch, they basically said it was fine as long as it didn't come from the WH. It was a great idea but it should have come from the DNC. I was so pissed I had to take a walk. How the fuck is that okay?

Posted by: momma at August 06, 2009 02:28 PM (penCf)

58 Question. I have never been polled. Has anyone here ever been part of a political poll?

Posted by: Mystry at August 06, 2009 02:29 PM (dIHlE)

59
I'm pretty sure Virginians didn't get what they thought they were getting by voting for [Webb].

Are you telling me that Jim Webb is not really a 'blue dog conservative' Democrat wink wink? The hell you say!

Posted by: Tweet Diamond Phillips at August 06, 2009 02:29 PM (jVldi)

For the record, I've been pimping my wife's own Obama-Joker photoshop in other threads at AoSHQ.

http://tinyurl.com/lxy9lp

Shamelessly, here it is again. I think she did a hell of a job.

I'm trying to get over 1,000 views by Friday! So, click and help me out. The one on the left is the original. The one on the right with the Obama logo and "Why So Socialist" is the wife's work.

Posted by: JDW at August 06, 2009 02:31 PM (uw+0A)

61 Never been polled for politics. Polled about Magic cards one time.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 02:35 PM (XH/G8)

62 "Swamp-ass"? There's a blast from the past, so to speak. Haven't heard that in years.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 06, 2009 02:35 PM (Haq+B)

63 I wouldn't read too much into the choice of "depressed"; they were probably looking for a one-word counterpart to "thrilled", and "depressed" is not too bad a choice, unless you can't distinguish its ordinary use from its clinical use (do you think "clinically depressed" is redundant?).

Given free choice of answer, mine would be "concerned". With a sense of foreboding. Maybe even non-clinically depressed. Like the economy.

Posted by: Original Roy at August 06, 2009 02:36 PM (jV0wG)

64 How is it possible to A. be available by phone for a CNN poll, but B. to never have heard of the vice president or first lady?

Same way the census reports there are13-yo lesbian widows in Iowa--people lie to pollsters.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at August 06, 2009 02:36 PM (NtiET)

65 It's obvious the lackeys are doing their best to cover for the Joker. Never ever trust the Joker. The propaganda planning is becoming legion.

Posted by: bill-tb at August 06, 2009 02:42 PM (iiiMw)

66 they were probably looking for a one-word counterpart to "thrilled", and "depressed" is not too bad a choice,

"disgusted" would work, but doesn't have the whole Soviet "those who disagree are mentally ill" thing going.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at August 06, 2009 02:43 PM (NtiET)

Sorry - have to throw this out there:

Since we're morons, we need Vanity Fair to redefine fashion for us- Michelle Obama tops fashion list over Angelina Jolie.

http://tinyurl.com/la2dvw

I guess the gunny sack look is coming back. Who knew?

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at August 06, 2009 02:44 PM (/+GDy)

68 "I think the poster is ironic. Its shows the truth about the crazy right-wingers - they have no idea what the definition of socialism is. Because while Obama is not a socialist no matter what they might want to believe, but the Joker is REALLY not a socialist. I would categorize him as an anarchist."

But Obama is an anarchist. Actually, he's a pretty conventional Marxist: Destroy the existing structure and put the worker's paradise in its place. Sprinkle in some fascism, too.

Posted by: AmishDude at August 06, 2009 02:44 PM (T0NGe)

69 doesn't have the whole Soviet "those who disagree are mentally ill" thing going.

Bingo. Disagreement with the State is a sign of mental illness. It's also funny/disgusting to hear the democrat reps claiming to have been physically assaulted and attacked at the Town Halls.

Lies and the liars who tell them, indeed.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 06, 2009 02:46 PM (Haq+B)

70 48 I've said this before but I think it is important enough to say again here. Bernie somebody (on Beck's show a while back) said that the media this election and now during the presidency left their bias at the door and became full on activists. How can we stop this? I mean targeting advertisers is okay but can be difficult. I tried to not buy toys for my kids that were made in China after that lead thing a few years ago, and it was HARD! Anyway, I'm pissed. Ugh.

I think at some point, we're going to have to file a class action lawsuit against the major media outlets and make the case that their coverage is essentially an in-kind campaign contribution. (This would have to be based solely on "news reporting" and not editorial stuff. IOW, we wouldn't bring, say, Olberman into it.)

Posted by: Farmer Joe at August 06, 2009 02:49 PM (z4es9)

71 50 Truman,

I don't subsribe to that notion

Somehow I overlooked your thoughtful post here. Sorry I didn't get back to you.

I think that it is possible; if this ever becomes a "thing" in the MSM, then they will need a way to spin it that doesn't rely entirely on racism- that card is not working nearly as well as it was before Gatesaquiddick. Your examples of non-logic may suffice.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 02:50 PM (XH/G8)

Catholicism doesn't view depression or any other forms of mental illness as sin. Sloth is a sin; so if you recognise an onset of depression and you're not doing anything about it, then yeah, you're in trouble. But the ABC poll isn't calling our virtue into question here. (Just our sanity.)

Posted by: David Ross at August 06, 2009 02:50 PM (GwV+j)

73 It's got to be bad when the disapproval choice is"Angry, crazed, and racist, and also my dick is the size of watch-battery and/or I've got chronic swamp-ass" and the 0-tard is still dropping in the polls.

Posted by: 141Driver at August 06, 2009 02:51 PM (VpYA3)

74 I think the poster is ironic. Its shows the truth about the crazy right-wingers - they have no idea what the definition of socialism is. Because while Obama is not a socialist no matter what they might want to believe, but the Joker is REALLY not a socialist. I would categorize him as an anarchist.

Thing is, it doesn't matter. It's mocking, and mockery is enough, regardless of its factual basis (Alinsky, again). The image is what will stick with people, not the reasoning behind it. For that reason alone, I think the poster is brilliant. Also, it's the first sign of open mockery of the Messiah. Once the ice is broken, there should be plenty more coming through the cracks.

Posted by: Farmer Joe at August 06, 2009 02:53 PM (z4es9)

75 Catholicism doesn't view depression or any other forms of mental illness as sin. Sloth is a sin; so if you recognise an onset of depression and you're not doing anything about it, then yeah, you're in trouble. But the ABC poll isn't calling our virtue into question here. (Just our sanity.)

I believe the church teaches that despair is sinful, because one who truly has faith in god knows that the universe is in good hands, and would not despair under any circumstances. Now, depression and despair aren't the same thing, but they're related, so it's easy enough to see a connection.

Posted by: Farmer Joe at August 06, 2009 02:55 PM (z4es9)

76 Gar. The first paragraph in 75 should be in italics so that it's obviously a quote.

Posted by: Farmer Joe at August 06, 2009 02:56 PM (z4es9)

77 I think it will all end in fire and blood. And yet, I do not despair. Humanity improves with struggle. Wrap it in cotton and it tends to rot.

Posted by: Jonathon E. at August 06, 2009 02:58 PM (dQdrY)

Its shows the truth about the crazy right-wingers - they have no idea what the definition of socialism

Um, I'd say the federal government running two car companies is certainly in the ball park.

Posted by: Jay at August 06, 2009 02:58 PM (/ZX77)

79 Catholicism doesn't view depression or any other forms of mental illness as sin.

But what if the only way I can keep my sanity is by petting the weasel??

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at August 06, 2009 02:59 PM (5aa4z)

80 Do Catholics view posting on AoS as a sin? I would thnk they should.

Posted by: Ben at August 06, 2009 03:02 PM (wuv1c)

81 Um, I'd say the federal government running two car companies is certainly in the ball park.

Posted by: Jay at August 06, 2009 02:58 PM (/ZX77)

Now Now. Not fair using facts and logic?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 06, 2009 03:02 PM (TfW4T)

Don't Catholics teach that allowing yourself to stew in depression is self-indulgent and sinful?

Not exactly. Depression is a mental health/medical condition; despair, the belief that one has no prospect of salvation is a sin, in that it denies God's grace, and is a form of judgment upon one's sould (thereby making oneself on the level of God, the true judge). But your point about using that wording in a poll question is completely valid.

Posted by: Fallen Sparrow at August 06, 2009 03:03 PM (SOf9N)

83 I've worked a lot of poles.

Posted by: Jenna James at August 06, 2009 03:03 PM (m2CN7)

84 But what if the only way I can keep my sanity is by petting the weasel??

Then you're an Episcopalian.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 06, 2009 03:04 PM (Haq+B)

85 Then you're an Episcopalian.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 06, 2009 03:04 PM (Haq+B)

I would have guessed the snake handler sect, but I'll bow to your knowlege.

Posted by: Jonathon E. at August 06, 2009 03:05 PM (dQdrY)

The government running health care isn't socialism? How?

If that isn't socialism then what pray-fucking-tell is?

Posted by: Eleven at August 06, 2009 03:05 PM (7DB+a)

87 Yet another small ray of hope, morons. Even the dumbest, most casual news consumer these days has to be noticing that the media is rather, uhhh, invested in the success of Teh One. Every poll like this is one more nail in the MSM coffin.

More, please!!!! Faster!!!!

Posted by: bullfrog at August 06, 2009 03:06 PM (K/e/T)

88 If that isn't socialism then what pray-fucking-tell is?

Posted by: Eleven at August 06, 2009 03:05 PM (7DB+a)

If the Gov runs health care you better fucking start praying!

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 06, 2009 03:07 PM (TfW4T)

89 a

Posted by: Ben at August 06, 2009 03:09 PM (wuv1c)

If that isn't socialism then what pray-fucking-tell is?

Posted by: Eleven at August 06, 2009 03:05 PM (7DB+a)

The total end of private property? I'm talking about their definition.

Posted by: Jonathon E. at August 06, 2009 03:09 PM (dQdrY)

91 But what if the only way I can keep my sanity is by petting the weasel??

Then you're an Episcopalian.

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 06, 2009 03:04 PM (Haq+B)

No chance. I think about chicks.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at August 06, 2009 03:09 PM (5aa4z)

92 I'm watching the republic hand the 9th seat of the supreme court over to a dedicated racist and borderline retard.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 03:09 PM (XH/G8)

93 I'm watching the republic hand the 9th seat of the supreme court over to a dedicated racist and borderline retard.

Posted by: Truman at August 06, 2009 03:09 PM (XH/G

It's ok. She's replacing a dedicated pantywaist and weapons-grade retard. Scoreboard stays the same.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at August 06, 2009 03:11 PM (5aa4z)

94 I think the poster is ironic. Its shows the truth about the crazy right-wingers - they have no idea what the definition of socialism is.

They're whistling right past me

Posted by: the graveyard at August 06, 2009 03:12 PM (PD1tk)

95
White House: 'War on terrorism' is over

'Jihadists' and 'global war' no longer acceptable terms

Well that's nice. Anybody tell the other side yet?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 06, 2009 03:15 PM (TfW4T)

96 Washington Post apologizes for Clinton joke

Milbank said he couldn't reveal to whom President Barack Obama would serve a drink called "Mad B---- Beer." That line was followed by a brief picture of Clinton.

The group Women, Action and the Media complained to the Post in a letter signed by 32 women. They called the video "sexist" and "tasteless."

Gee now I guess people will start apologizing to Sarah Palin or maybe I shouldn't hold my breath?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 06, 2009 03:18 PM (TfW4T)

97 #95 To whom did Reid surrender to this time?

Posted by: Mystry at August 06, 2009 03:21 PM (dIHlE)

98 So, are those two moonbats, Clinton just retrieved, total whack jobs, or are they just horribly traumatized by a long plane flight with Bubba?

Posted by: Jonathon E. at August 06, 2009 03:22 PM (dQdrY)

99 97 #95 To whom did Reid surrender to this time?
Posted by: Mystry at August 06, 2009 03:21 PM (dIHlE)

No it was the White House this time:

President Obama's top homeland security and counterterrorism official took all three terms off the table of acceptable words inside the White House during a speech Thursday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank.

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 06, 2009 03:23 PM (TfW4T)

100 So, are those two moonbats, Clinton just retrieved, total whack jobs, or are they just horribly traumatized by a long plane flight with Bubba?
Posted by: Jonathon E. at August 06, 2009 03:22 PM (dQdrY)

They work for Al Gore? Need I say more?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 06, 2009 03:23 PM (TfW4T)

101 There is no "other side"; there is only us. We are the world's only enemy, and need to be neutered for the good of all others.

95
White House: 'War on terrorism' is over

'Jihadists' and 'global war' no longer acceptable terms

Well that's nice. Anybody tell the other side yet?

Posted by: Deep-thinking Leftist Shit for Brains at August 06, 2009 03:27 PM (xzSvW)

102

"Angry, crazed, and racist, and also my dick is the size of watch-battery and/or I've got chronic swamp-ass"

Heh, I got that beat all to hell. Double A sized here!

Posted by: poon and the angry inch at August 06, 2009 03:39 PM (hq71Y)

103 They work for Al Gore? Need I say more?

Posted by: nevergiveup at August 06, 2009 03:23 PM (TfW4T)

So, all the above then. At least being moonbat chicks, you know they put out.

Posted by: Jonathon E. at August 06, 2009 03:43 PM (dQdrY)

104 Did they correct for that oversample? Did they weight the responses? CNN’s polling data doesn’t explain at all, which leads one to the conclusion that they kept the oversample in the final data.

^{Does that mean they didn't weight black responses back down? No, of
course they did. Any polling company which didn't would be setting
itself up for not only ridicule but loss of business, as its
competitors pointed out the gross error of postulating a 37% black US
population.}
Why give CNN the benefit of the doubt?

Posted by: anonymous at August 06, 2009 03:50 PM (rEPj1)

105 damn sockpuppet!

Posted by: liontooth at August 06, 2009 03:54 PM (rEPj1)

106 31 I think this post is about Democrats being overweight or something. That's so mean.

Posted by: Meghan McCain at August 06, 2009 02:14 PM (SCcgT)

Shouldn't you be off making googly eyes at a stick of butter or something?

Posted by: UncleFacts at August 06, 2009 04:03 PM (vZVv7)

107 Why is there math on this blog? Math is hard!

Posted by: alexthechick at August 06, 2009 04:46 PM (SHHaV)

108 OK, I'm going to be as statistically unscientific here as you can possibly get. I'm going to go with my gut instincts.

There is no way in hells half acre that Obama is at 56%.

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at August 06, 2009 10:13 PM (/2hGD)

109 Does that mean they didn't weight black responses back down? No, of course they did.
...
They weighted them back down to 12%, or 13%, or whatever the current Census figures indicate.

That seems a completely unreasonable and unwarranted presumption. CNN is not exactly the zenith of professionality and reliability.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at August 06, 2009 11:19 PM (PQY7w)

110 Ace,
I'm talking out my hat here, but I think you are too quick to dismiss Ed's criticisms. IANAP, but to run a poll that oversamples one segment, you would have to bias the area codes that you call. This runs several risks. (1) you may get a large underreporting error, in other words you call people from a predominantly "x" population and you get a percentage of them that say they are not "x" but they are lying. (2) you get a larget percentage of people that are sympathetic to "x" views. IOW they are "Y", they report as "Y", but they are not representative of a typical "Y". (3) you intriduce a seperate bias by biasing your regions. for example not enough rural or suburban or wealthy or poor to give a good representation.

The only way to "oversample" one population is to run two seperate polls. anythign else is trash.

Posted by: jcp at August 07, 2009 08:11 AM (DHNp4)

111 "Don't Catholics teach that allowing yourself to stew in depression is self-indulgent and sinful?"

Say what? Twelve-step groups, maybe. The Church? Not that I've ever heard.

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