FactCheck.org Cites Chart Made by Geoff of Innocent Bystanders in Knocking Down Lunatic "Saved or Created" "Staistics"

I'm desperately trying to figure out how to insert myself into this and claim some credit.

But as things have turned out, even with the big spending package in place, the jobless rate shot up to 9.4 percent in May, according to the most recent figures from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here's how the real, monthly jobless figures look when plotted on the Obama team's own chart, with the red dots indicating the actual rates:

The second chart was created by "Geoff" at the Web site Innocent Bystanders. We've checked it and can vouch for its accuracy. The Obama team did not give the precise figures that lie behind their chart, and the chart is based on quarterly figures while the BLS figures are monthly. Nevertheless, this chart gives a reasonably good picture of how far off the Obama team's projections have turned out to be, at least so far.

Not surprisingly, Republicans are pouncing on this. Republican Rep. Darrell Issa of California and five other GOP members of the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform signed a Jan. 11 letter complaining that the administration had used murky methods to support its claims. They accused the Obama team of using "creative models to produce speculative macroeconomic forecasts" and asked for detailed explanations of the "factors and theories" behind the administration's projections.

Even better, the FactCheck.org piece runs in Newsweek, prominently linking Innocent Bystanders, which means their traffic is about to skyrocket by 10, maybe 12 percent.


Thanks to Slublog.


Posted by: Ace at 08:05 PM



Comments

1 I'm desperately trying to figure out how to insert myself into this

Well if you do manage that, then throw Lauraw a bone. She's already posted this twice.

Posted by: Iskandar at June 16, 2009 08:10 PM (qk0Ux)

2 Now I flunked out of grad school, so maybe I'm not the best interpreter of mathematical data, but that sure looks like a strictly increasing graph to me.

Posted by: Methos at June 16, 2009 08:11 PM (wU8X9)

3 It's like Clusterfuck the Jug-Eared joke has no experience with economics at all.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at June 16, 2009 08:12 PM (5wMf6)

4 So what do we do next month when unemployment blows through the top of the old Obama chart?

Posted by: Mr. Optimistic at June 16, 2009 08:12 PM (wU8X9)

5 Now I flunked out of grad school, so maybe I'm not
the best interpreter of mathematical data, but that sure looks like a
strictly increasing graph to me.

Posted by: Methos at June 16, 2009 08:11 PM (wU8X9)
I'm pretty sure that's a straight line.

Posted by: Euclid at June 16, 2009 08:13 PM (5wMf6)

6 Geoff kicks ass.

Posted by: Americano at June 16, 2009 08:14 PM (pZSp0)

7 /OT I think one of the cotter pins fell out.

Posted by: Hamlet at June 16, 2009 08:14 PM (8+kts)

8 The Fact Check people who find innocent bystanders should make sure they find their way to visiting "a fat naked woman with greased thighs." while they are there.

Posted by: Douglas at June 16, 2009 08:19 PM (uU+Ss)

9
Well, I know geoff, so I want some credit, too.

Besides, I'd like to think I've been a positive influence on my dear friend, geoff, over the years and somehow contributed to the making of this graph.

I kinda feel I raised him, actually. We were a team, once. Really.

Posted by: Unicles at June 16, 2009 08:19 PM (Bmhek)

10 Wait til you see the unemployment figures a year from now. This hasn't even begun.

Posted by: ahem at June 16, 2009 08:19 PM (8qmFo)

11 The sad thing is page two is entirely Administration propaganda, and the conclusion is not that the 150K is false - just "unknown"

truly sad.

Posted by: Anti-Harkonnen Freedom Fighter at June 16, 2009 08:20 PM (5r0Tz)

12
"...signed a Jan. 11 letter complaining..."

hmmm, January 11th? I think factcheck needs to fact check their loose shit

Posted by: Unicles at June 16, 2009 08:21 PM (Bmhek)

13 Would never click on a Factcheck link. Ever.

Posted by: momma at June 16, 2009 08:23 PM (penCf)

14

Nice work! Newsweek and Factcheck.org linkage!

I wonder what that douchebag "Former Reporter" would say. He is such an independent minded individual! He knew that Innocent Bystanders was just a "propaganda site", and the chart was bogus. I wonder how many times his work was linked or cited by Newsweek?

After all, as he said: "I was on a first-name basis with more than a dozen people who wrote the book on how these numbers are compiled and interpreted." Douchebag.

Posted by: dan-O at June 16, 2009 08:23 PM (teb/C)

15 Mad Moron Props for Geoff

Good Job!!!!

Posted by: turtle at June 16, 2009 08:23 PM (N5Xhz)

16
If that's supposed to be 'Jun' rather than 'Jan', I'll be over here basking in irony.

factcheck...

layers and layers

Well, in their defense, they don't call themselves proofread.org

Posted by: Unicles at June 16, 2009 08:23 PM (Bmhek)

17 I grew up hearing my Dad talk about life during The Depression. Looks like before I die, I'm gonna have first hand knowledge.
Thanks, 52%!

Posted by: Jones at June 16, 2009 08:26 PM (KOkrW)

18 But this is nothing since The One said on Bloomberg that unemployment will now go to 10%.
Given their great track record of forecasting, that probably means 12%.

This whole new Obama "reality" is simply unbelievable. We say that almost every day and then something even for effed up comes out. 2010 cannot come fast enough.

Posted by: KLL at June 16, 2009 08:26 PM (/5Axw)

19 Congrats Geoff!

I've had the chance to meet him and he's a very nice guy. He deserves a lot of credit for calling Obama out on this bullshit.

A lot of conservative blog stuff gets stuck in the rightwing side of the net so it's good to see this breakout into places where Obama worship is a given. It might actually make some folks think. Or not.

Posted by: DrewM. at June 16, 2009 08:26 PM (iTt2X)

20 To tell you the truth, I thought that stimulus money was going to Akon. That brotha' be keepin it realz.

Posted by: Barak Obama at June 16, 2009 08:27 PM (OtE8p)

21 @19 should be
...something even more effed up...

Posted by: KLL at June 16, 2009 08:27 PM (/5Axw)

22
Geithner and Obama have both publically stated that health care reform is the key to economic recovery. Combined with the new "green" economy, this insane economic policy is ripe for the GOP's attack.


Posted by: Unicles at June 16, 2009 08:29 PM (Bmhek)

23 Geoff--you da man!

Posted by: Cyn at June 16, 2009 08:31 PM (cxzu3)

24 Is it just me or does anyone else see that line going basically straight up?

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at June 16, 2009 08:31 PM (PQY7w)

25 I'm pretty sure that's a straight line.


Posted by: Euclid at June 16, 2009 08:13 PM (5wMf6)
That other guy and I concur.

Posted by: Isaac Newton at June 16, 2009 08:31 PM (wU8X9)

26 The unemployment rate is much much higher then what the Bureau of Labor Statistics are giving out. There data is fake.


Posted by: jdun1911 at June 16, 2009 08:32 PM (yYCkj)

27 Whoa, geoff! Look at the tempest you've created. Well done, my friend, well done! (And me boss, I know geoff too...)

Posted by: Mr. Matamoros at June 16, 2009 08:32 PM (0rHy8)

28 That chart is beginning to show up in some of the daily investment briefs I get. Combine this with Barry demanding greater power to take over financial institutions and some may begin to see through his hope and change bullshit and see the Marxist thug that he is.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at June 16, 2009 08:33 PM (nsok8)

29 I'm pretty sure that's a straight line.



Posted by: Euclid at June 16, 2009 08:13 PM (5wMf6)

That other guy and I concur.

Posted by: Isaac Newton at June 16, 2009 08:31 PM (wU8X9)





Not so fast!

Posted by: Gottfried Leibniz at June 16, 2009 08:34 PM (qk0Ux)

30 runs in Newsweek Newsweak,
which means their traffic is about to skyrocket by 10 2, maybe 12 3 percent
Have not read that rag lately have ya...

Posted by: AndrewsDad at June 16, 2009 08:35 PM (OJ6xy)

31 I'm pretty sure I'm Geoff's dad.
So really ... the credit pretty much goes to me.



Thank you. Thank you, I appreciate it. All in a days work. Please no more fuss.A big diamond encrusted trophy and a stack of meatloaf sammiches will be a sufficient display of gratitude.

Posted by: Warden at June 16, 2009 08:35 PM (QoR4a)

32
Thanks, everybody, and especially thanks to lauraw and AoSHQ for getting the graph seen by everybody. If lauraw hadn't kept bumping that post all day, it probably wouldn't have happened.

I knew I could count on a smart military blog.

Posted by: geoff at June 16, 2009 08:35 PM (rHo94)

33 I created a Gantt chart today for the first time ever, so I'm pretty sure I should get some of the credit for this, too.

Posted by: Editor at June 16, 2009 08:36 PM (en7mZ)

34 Staistics
Is that anything like statistics?

Posted by: solitary knight at June 16, 2009 08:37 PM (Hgalg)

35 Employment is almost 90%!! That's an 'A' inwonderful American public high schools. Awesome job, Mr. President!

Posted by: Major networks at June 16, 2009 08:38 PM (yUiO3)

36 OT, just want to add a vote to the suggestiong that ace make his banner green in solidarity with the dissenters in Iran.

Posted by: We are all Iranians at June 16, 2009 08:38 PM (wU8X9)

37 If it's any comfort, ace, we're getting more traffic from you then Newsweek. So far.

Posted by: BrewFan at June 16, 2009 08:39 PM (mZu8a)

38

Something that is kind of funny is that at the bottom of the Factcheck.org page, the have "Sources", and there are 6 sources listed. Innocent Bystanders is not one of them, even though geoff's chart is lifted from it.

Oh well, one step at a time I guess.

Posted by: dan-O at June 16, 2009 08:40 PM (teb/C)

39 Geoff,

Sue their asses for copyright infringement.
They stole your graphic.
(unless they asked first, of course)

Posted by: Nom de Blog at June 16, 2009 08:41 PM (1Bods)

40 36-Technically that's A-

Posted by: Not a Professor but I play one on TV at June 16, 2009 08:41 PM (wU8X9)

41 I think you need to add some more height to that chart. You won't be able to chart June!

Posted by: SJR2 at June 16, 2009 08:41 PM (XToaa)

42 Well done, Geoff. We all might need to stop by I.B. a bit more regularly to help defend your honor due to all the likely trolls that will be visiting.

Posted by: Trish at June 16, 2009 08:43 PM (0U5Kd)

43 On Dateline, next Tuesday, expose´ on "Not a Professor but I play one on TV", the Obama critic and alleged hateful right wing extremist racist who must be stopped.

Posted by: Major networks at June 16, 2009 08:44 PM (yUiO3)

44 Turn that graph upside down and it shows predicted vs. actual global temperature change since 1998.

Posted by: Knaws at June 16, 2009 08:44 PM (I54IH)

45 Unemployment charts are just like any of the other public opinion polls Obama sees changing day-to-day. Like Rasmussen or the stock market.

Posted by: Evil midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight at June 16, 2009 08:44 PM (taJZA)

46 >White House officials have a simple explanation for all this. They say President George Bush left them a worse mess than they realized when Romer and Bernstein came up with their predictions.

There. You see? Perfectly understandable.

Posted by: Jones at June 16, 2009 08:44 PM (KOkrW)

47 And O-Blah-ma had the nerve tosnicker at McCain foradmitting thathe didn't know much about economics.
Well at least McCain wasn't attempting to mislead anybody...
Obama is liar and a fool and pretty soon even the MSM won't be able to cover for him successfully anymore...

Posted by: Juliet16 at June 16, 2009 08:45 PM (2xgu5)

48 "Everything in blue was created by the Obama's economic team"

Only so long before they can disclaim the red too!

Posted by: Iskandar at June 16, 2009 08:45 PM (qk0Ux)

49 Geoff deserves none of the credit.
This chart was faxed to him from a Kinko's in Texas by Rosie Ruiz.
And it was all done on an IBM Selectric typewriter in 1971.

(Geoff, seriously, sue them for copyright infringement.)

Posted by: Dan Rather de Blog at June 16, 2009 08:46 PM (1Bods)

50 See, blogs with pictures are good.

Posted by: nickless at June 16, 2009 08:47 PM (MMC8r)

51
Suggestions for other graphs:

1) graph showing Obama's spending per day since the beginning of his term
2) the budget deficit before Obama's term and now
3) the national debt before Obama's term and now
4) the spending under Bush's terms showing the spending with both Republican and Democrat control of Congress.


Posted by: Unicles at June 16, 2009 08:48 PM (Bmhek)

52 I get the same curve when I plot penis inches vs. seconds watching Megyn Kelly.

Posted by: gator at June 16, 2009 08:48 PM (yUiO3)

53 nickless,
Blogs with pictures of boobs are even better.
Or Thai tranny porn.

Posted by: Pervert de Blog at June 16, 2009 08:48 PM (1Bods)

54
Also, a graph showing how much of the TARP funds were doled out under both Bush's term and Obama's term, would be great.

Posted by: Unicles at June 16, 2009 08:50 PM (Bmhek)

55 Remember that deficit graph, that show the White House's rosy (but still horrible) projections, the one that even they had to update to be worse? Wait for THAT update, my friends-- its going to be Un. Be. Lievable.

Posted by: nickless at June 16, 2009 08:50 PM (MMC8r)

56
We all might need to stop by I.B. a bit more regularly to help defend
your honor due to all the likely trolls that will be visiting.

It's been a little more lively, but our trolls have been pretty lame. NiceDeb, though is being beseiged, so if you've got time and energy, you might go warm up on the trolls there.

Then you should be brown as a nut and fit as a lass when it comes to the wave at IB (I suspect tomorrow will be dicey).

Posted by: geoff at June 16, 2009 08:53 PM (rHo94)

57 Plot the ratio of the actual over the predicted.

It is a rough measure of how far off the predictions were.

Also, plotting the difference works.

Toss in a fancy term like "negative Unicorn variance" to make it look classy and cerebral.

Posted by: eman at June 16, 2009 08:53 PM (alhZM)

58 Obama will probably show the chart himself and say its all Bush's fault.

Posted by: Evil midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight at June 16, 2009 08:53 PM (taJZA)

59 geoff, this means the Prez has DEFINITELY seen your chart. Cool!

Posted by: Mrs. Peel at June 16, 2009 08:54 PM (kTwMy)

60
The next chart will hopefully be a comparison of actual to projected GDP. That will help give us a clue as to how much trouble we're in.

But in my humble opinion, the conservative blogs need a full court press on health care. TMI3rd' post this morning was a great start. We need to keep the pressure on before something terrible happens.

Posted by: geoff at June 16, 2009 08:55 PM (rHo94)

61 Looking at that chart.

Hey! They sank my Battleship!!!

Posted by: Joe Biden at June 16, 2009 08:55 PM (93F13)

62 OT Hamlet @08:14 PM, thank you for the link to my site and one of the rarest (real) photos of Pelosi in existence!

Posted by: Track-A-'Crat at June 16, 2009 08:55 PM (V9J8Z)

63 The red dots are racist.

Posted by: Barry Soetoro at June 16, 2009 08:57 PM (wU8X9)

64
geoff, please chart General Motors' profits-to-earnings ratio for me. Thanks!

Posted by: Barack Obama at June 16, 2009 08:58 PM (Bmhek)

65 I predict: geoff will be needing funds and legal advice soon. Paypal your donations to IRSwarchest

Posted by: Evil midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight at June 16, 2009 08:58 PM (taJZA)

66
I predict: geoff will be needing funds and legal advice soon.

I'm going get Joe-the-Plumbered? Ack.

Posted by: geoff at June 16, 2009 09:00 PM (rHo94)

67 "There's no doubt that we've got a serious problem in terms of our
long-term deficits and debt," he (Obama) told CNBC. "I make no apologies for
having acted short term to deal with our recession."

Wow. Just wow.

Posted by: Editor at June 16, 2009 09:02 PM (en7mZ)

68 That graph would be even better with the fucking ARRA logo pasted on it. Obama wants everyone to know what his stimuseless is doing, making sure his logo is prominent on all the magnificent projects it's building. Own it, pal.

Posted by: Waterhouse at June 16, 2009 09:04 PM (0qj3r)

69 For the first time in my adult life I can be proud of my lyin' SOS husband, and the assorted Progressive pond-scum he gave unwarranted jobs to .....

Posted by: Michelle Obama at June 16, 2009 09:04 PM (Ftcrf)

70
What's with Larry Kudlow? Yesterday he had some dumb piece about Obama becoming a Reaganite.

Posted by: Unicles at June 16, 2009 09:04 PM (Bmhek)

71 L - Seven....

Posted by: Barack Obama at June 16, 2009 09:05 PM (93F13)

72 Oh, yeah, it'll be a whole Nuremberg thinger, geoff. "I vas just making blog posts! Everybody vas making blog posts!"
/joke

Posted by: Evil midnight Bomber What Bombs at Midnight at June 16, 2009 09:06 PM (taJZA)

73 72
L - Seven....


Posted by: Barack Obama at June 16, 2009 09:05 PM

Hit.... M - Twelve

Posted by: Joe Biden at June 16, 2009 09:06 PM (93F13)

74 Not to worry, the Vice President said they guessed wrong about all this...er...stuff.

I feel much better now.

Of course, that's probably the single malt talking. Actually singing old Motown rather than talking. I think it's "I Can't Get Next to You."

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 16, 2009 09:07 PM (uM+37)

75 It's pretty obvious where all the anger that leads to racist jokes and things of the kind is coming from.The direction of this country is scaring people,probably on a subconcious level in many cases.This president is scary bad and seemingly getting worse every day.The economy and the destruction he is bringing down upon it longterm is the big issue.We can't allow ourselves to go off on tangents of personal hate.We must fiight these policies which may lead to our destruction as a nation or at least as a democratic republic.

Posted by: steevy at June 16, 2009 09:07 PM (JWrAM)

76 A lot of conservative blog stuff gets stuck in the rightwing side of
the net so it's good to see this breakout into places where Obama
worship is a given. It might actually make some folks think. Or not.

You're asking some of the Fiftytwo Percenters to think?

That is one hell of a dream Drew.

Posted by: UncleFacts at June 16, 2009 09:08 PM (vZVv7)

77 Citizens, I know times are tough. When I feel worried or overwhelmed, I go buy some $500 running shoes. I don't ever run.

Posted by: First Lady at June 16, 2009 09:09 PM (yUiO3)

78 I knew I could count on a smart military blog.

Just be glad nothing got stuck in the mud that day.


Posted by: alexthechick at June 16, 2009 09:09 PM (A/GeO)

79 Congrats Geoff! Awesomeness.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at June 16, 2009 09:10 PM (eiOZw)

80 L - Seven....

Posted by: Barack Obama at June 16, 2009 09:05 PMHit.... M - Twelve

Posted by: Joe Biden

Yoooouuuu and the Joooos sunk my Battleship!

Posted by: TXMarko at June 16, 2009 09:11 PM (PPfBQ)

81 2 Now I
flunked out of grad school, so maybe I'm not the best interpreter of
mathematical data, but that sure looks like a strictly increasing graph
to me.

looks like a parabolic curve to me ?

Posted by: joan at June 16, 2009 09:12 PM (DqJGH)

82 We elected a very evil stumblefuck.

Posted by: tachyonshuggy at June 16, 2009 09:12 PM (1m4l8)

83 ... and congrats to Geoff and all the awesome folks over at IB.

I comment over there at least once every 3 months, and that is enough awesomeness to keep me satisfied!

YMMV.


Posted by: TXMarko at June 16, 2009 09:13 PM (PPfBQ)

84 I have to say Nice Deb has trolls that are worth bashing but Carin has some good trolls too http://tinyurl.com/nwjjzr


Posted by: Vmaximus at June 16, 2009 09:13 PM (r0iFM)

85 geoff - kudos. excellent work.

Posted by: UofC Conservative at June 16, 2009 09:17 PM (ivwt+)

86
Thanks again, everybody. I'm shot, so I'm going to toddle off.

Thanks for the post, Ace!

Posted by: geoff at June 16, 2009 09:17 PM (rHo94)

87 I hear that palin steele is trolling at Hot Air now

Hey bitches, he's OURS

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Posted by: royalmewigs at June 16, 2009 09:20 PM (WGEuO)

89 doh, you mean the dots, yeh that's a straight line.

Posted by: joan at June 16, 2009 09:21 PM (bMSAE)

90 Geoff! Geoff! GEOFF!!!!

Lace wig, baby. Now is the time.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 16, 2009 09:21 PM (uM+37)

91 Fact Check just emailed me. They asked me to forward their email to Geoff so they can credit him.

I did.

Posted by: Retired Geezer at June 16, 2009 09:22 PM (R5Kf4)

92 Good on ya, Geoff. Great work.

Posted by: sixpckr at June 16, 2009 09:26 PM (ZCAzS)

93 I'm desperately trying to figure out how to insert myself into this and claim some credit.


Shoot, Ace, just tell everyone that Innocent Bystanders is an AOSHQ subsidiary. I'm OK with that. It's more or less true. Plus, Geoff's chart mostly went viral because it got pimped here first.

Posted by: Michael at June 16, 2009 09:30 PM (rX6iH)

94 Are thoselace wigsanti-stab lace wigs?

Posted by: gator at June 16, 2009 09:32 PM (yUiO3)

95 Ain't that special! Our lil' geoffy hit the big time. My oh my...

Posted by: KornKat at June 16, 2009 09:32 PM (+FB5m)

96 I agree with AndrewsDad. Other than people held hostage in doctors' offices, does anyone read Newsreek any more?

Posted by: runningrn at June 16, 2009 09:35 PM (RwCJ3)

97 Drudge says Obambi is losing sleep these days. I hope, for his sake, that it ain't Michelle keeping him up.

Posted by: gator at June 16, 2009 09:35 PM (yUiO3)

98 Is John Conyers here?Are you John Conyers?

Posted by: The Dyslexic Terminator at June 16, 2009 09:38 PM (8PGHt)

99 Biden says we all guessedwrong. What a maroon.I didn't guesswrong I'm just uncertain.

Posted by: Heisenberg at June 16, 2009 09:39 PM (uymlc)

100 I didn't guesswrong I'm just uncertain.

You think you've got problems

Posted by: Theoretical cat in some crazy theoretical scientist's theoretical box at June 16, 2009 09:41 PM (0qj3r)

101 98
Drudge says Obambi is losing sleep these days. I hope, for his sake, that it ain't Michelle keeping him up.

Posted by: gator at June 16, 2009 09:35 PM

He'd get some sleep if he wasn't here trolling as Adrianna Lima

Posted by: kbdabear at June 16, 2009 09:43 PM (93F13)

102 We didn't guess wrong, somebody spilled Pepsi on the Ouija board

Posted by: Joe Biden at June 16, 2009 09:45 PM (93F13)

103 ok i'll guess again, steep hyperbolic curve ?

Posted by: joan at June 16, 2009 09:49 PM (/Qhj3)

104 i hate math.

Posted by: joan at June 16, 2009 09:55 PM (/Qhj3)

105 We didn't guess wrong, somebody spilled Pepsi on the Ouija boardI just saw my first pro-Obama-style Pepsi ad tonight from Pepsi Canada! Was it ever disgusting.

Posted by: andycanuck at June 16, 2009 09:58 PM (8PGHt)

106 Markie Marxist sez: "Cool! When private sector unemployment hits 100%, everyone will be working for the government. Just like the good old days in the USSR. And people said Obama couldn't deliver! Ha! Ha! Capitalism is on hotrails to hell!"

Posted by: Chas at June 16, 2009 10:35 PM (yjDfo)

107 The great depression was about 25% unemployment.

No worries, we're still golden. Just toss another 10 trillion into the fire just to make sure.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at June 16, 2009 10:51 PM (Slx41)

108 But as things have turned out, even with the big spending package in place, the jobless rate shot up to 9.4 percent in May

Whoa! Did I do THAT?!?

Posted by: President Urkle at June 16, 2009 11:05 PM (4iIhs)

109 They accused the Obama team of using "creative models to produce speculative macroeconomic forecasts" and asked for detailed explanations of the "factors and theories" behind the administration's projections.
Is this a polite way of saying that Obama and his merry band of socialists are lying liar's who lie??

Posted by: Gen. Sherman at June 16, 2009 11:12 PM (blNMI)

110 The big ass beer fart I just let saved or created 18 thousand umpteen billion 652 million and 3 jobs.

Another one is brewing- MAKE ME PRESIDENT!!!!!!

Posted by: Gerry Owen at June 16, 2009 11:19 PM (oGv5F)

111 The arc of that upper line looks like rounded edge of Captain America's shield.

Just sayin'.

Posted by: Warden at June 16, 2009 11:45 PM (KXbGD)

112 Congrats Geoff!

It's hard to visit IB more often when you visit every day though.

Posted by: The Great Satan's Ghost at June 17, 2009 12:57 AM (UhpL2)

113 It's probably too few data points in a relatively short period of time to make a definitive prediction, but it does look like an increasing slope, which is what is known as a curve. That isn't good, when it comes to undesirable changes. It means that the rate of increase is in a positive direction - i.e., the unemployment is rapidly increasing. Like a stone falling downhill, it picks up speed - for unemployment, that would be the movement from 6.1% in Oct. 2008 to 9.1% in May. Over 6 months, unemployment increased about 50%. If that trend continues, we'll be looking at about 13.6% unemployment next October.

Mind you, these figures haven't been seasonally adjusted - there is always a difference in summer, due to recent graduates and summer workers (parks, roads, etc.). But, that gives us a figure to compare to the actual in a few months. If the numbers EXCEED the projected, run for the hills, and stock up on supplies - we are seriously in deep doo-doo.

Posted by: Linda F at June 17, 2009 01:43 AM (KleHp)

114
it does look like an increasing slope


I think the slope is constant, certainly to within the accuracy of the data.



Mind you, these figures haven't been seasonally adjusted



The numbers in the chart are the seasonally adjusted numbers.

My expectation is that the job losses start to level off next month, and that the unemployment data will peak around 11.5%. But every month that the current rate of increase continues costs us another 0.5% at the peak. So if I'm wrong, we're immediately looking at a peak of 12%.

Posted by: geoff at June 17, 2009 03:59 AM (rHo94)

115 the FactCheck.org piece runs in Newsweek, prominently linking Innocent Bystanders, which means their traffic is about to skyrocket by 10, maybe 12 percent people.
FTFY.

Posted by: mandible claw at June 17, 2009 05:41 AM (JvKLG)

116 Isn't FactCheck.org one of Soros' operations?

Posted by: red131 at June 17, 2009 06:28 AM (enUkU)

117 Congratulations Geoff. Nice work.
Remember that guy Joe the Plumber? You might want to think about burying the hobo's a little deeper, being a little more discreet with the thai tranny hookers and watching who's rummaging through your trash. The MSM and lefties ( but I repeat myself) don't take kindly to this type of "investigative" research.
Been nice knowing ya!

Posted by: Bosk at June 17, 2009 11:54 AM (pUO5u)

118 xxx

Posted by: Fish at June 19, 2009 08:04 PM (FnA4R)

119 The sad thing is page two is entirely Administration propaganda, and
the conclusion is not that the 150K is false - just "unknown" truly sad wrought iron furniture.

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