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Authors Claim in Washington Post that Ahmadinejad Really Was Winning 2-to-1 Before the Election; Article Refuted By Washington Post's Polling Blogger

The nonsense-- a claim the deeply unpopular Ahmadinejad was really ahead "by more than a 2-to-1 margin."

The fisking comes from the Washington Post itself, although it would be nice to see the WaPo more clearly highlight the fact their polling blogger debunks this piece. The WaPo does provide a link that says "For more on Iranian polling, see..." but don't say, more accurately, "Everything that guy just said is bullshit."

For one thing, their blogger notes, that poll dates from a month ago, before the spike in support for Mousavi. More critically:

More to the point, however, the poll that appears in today's op-ed shows a 2 to 1 lead in the thinnest sense: 34 percent of those polled said they'd vote for Ahmadinejad, 14 percent for Mousavi. That leaves 52 percent unaccounted for. In all, 27 percent expressed no opinion in the election, and another 15 percent refused to answer the question at all. Six Eight percent said they'd vote for none of the listed candidates; the rest for minor candidates.

An incumbent polling at 34% is likely to lose, even in a multiparty/parliamentary election. Undecided voters split 2 or 3 (or more) to 1 against the incumbent on election day. If you were happy with the incumbent, you'd express support for him in polls. You wouldn't say "I don't know."

It also occurs to me there aren't 2 or 3 million people rallying for Ahmadinejad.

And that 15% that's so afraid as to refuse to answer? Something tells me they weren't fans of Ahmadinejad.

Thanks to kdabear.

Posted by: Ace at 07:14 PM



Comments

1 "Pay to the order of...Iron Balls McGinty. ONE DOLLAR AND NINE CENTS!!!"!!!

Posted by: Navin R Johnson at June 15, 2009 07:16 PM (jyEfB)

2 Well, fuck me.  I need a new talking point now.

Posted by: Nigel Tufts AKA Richard Warman AKA Adriana Lima at June 15, 2009 07:19 PM (wgLRl)

3 Thanks to... not sure. Linked in the comments. Thanks!

You're welcome

39 The Washington Compost had some sockpuppets from a pair of NGO's "proving" that their (ahem) polls before the election showed Achmedajihad leading 2 to 1. Some credit to them for linkin a fisk of it in the their blog by Jon Cohen

Posted by: kbdabear at June 15, 2009 05:50 PM (93F13)


Posted by: kbdabear at June 15, 2009 07:20 PM (93F13)

4 This silly article brings to mind an old passage from PJ O'Rourke's Give War a Chance.  Writing about the end of the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, he said something along the lines of, "sheepishly, I have to admit that I believed an opinion poll in a country where holding certain opinions is illegal.  I can imagine the conversation: 'Hello, Mr. Peasant.  I'm an inquisitive and frightening stranger.  God knows who I work for.  Should I mark you down as supporting the ruling party, or should we just tear up your ration card right here and now?"

It's paraphrased, but that was the jist of it, and it's just as true now in Iran as in Nicaragua twenty years ago.

Posted by: radar at June 15, 2009 07:27 PM (EtwA4)

5 First we have Uraguay? taken over by a thug socialist...then Venezuela...and then America...and then Iran. Where will the tide of repression be stopped? When? By who? How will it be stopped? How many will die because of this malevolent force?

Posted by: torabora at June 15, 2009 07:33 PM (DC5Yz)

6

A timeline of events stolen from current Fark thread on Iran:

Currently, this is what is happening.


Timeline
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.

- When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave the Iranian Riot Police was called in, and short after the Basij also took the scene. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.

- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the

- With the second wave of Basij also came Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There are reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms.

- It's around the time of the second wave that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods). The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader has authorized these militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things get out of hand (source: BBC)

- This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. According to all reports, plainclothes militia have opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully.

Right now, there is chaos in the streets, reports of fighting all over Tehran, plenty of pictures of people shot, some to death. Things are ugly and this is spreading in other cities as well. There is a major crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Some people report that the students are fighting back in some areas. Others report that telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up.

Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a dozen people have been killed so far. Things will spiral down fast, and very soon.

Posted by: ArandomPerson at June 15, 2009 07:40 PM (uFOlw)

7

It's paraphrased, but that was the jist of it, and it's just as true now in Iran as in Nicaragua twenty years ago.

True here in a few years?

Posted by: kbdabear at June 15, 2009 07:40 PM (7FgWm)

8 That goatse model? Yeah, that was me early in my career. You could drive a van in there now.

Posted by: Nigel Tufts at June 15, 2009 07:43 PM (/8Gs3)

Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 15, 2009 07:44 PM (IPGTN)

10 Sorry to go off topic, but, I just watched O'Reilly defending Letterman - saying he is a comedian and really didn't do anything wrong, then 60 seconds later agrees that Palin has a right to be angry.

I am now convinced that O'Reilly travels to and from work in a clown car.

What a fucking moron.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program of stolen elections.

Which reminds me; Iran and America do have something in common; both our leaders are anti-semites who rigged their elections.

Posted by: ghost707 at June 15, 2009 07:46 PM (ixv8I)

11 "Thanks to kdabear." - Ace

that's all I needed to read to realize this post is worthless

Posted by: palin steele at June 15, 2009 07:50 PM (VDj74)

12 The mullahs have the guns.  Lots of them with an SS equivalent in the Revolutionary Guard.  I wish I could be optimistic here, but this is not the Wall coming down, folks, or even the Prague Spring.


Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 15, 2009 07:52 PM (uM+37)

13 Posted by: palin steele at June 15, 2009 07:50 PM (VDj74)

That's all I need to know that comment was worthless.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 15, 2009 07:53 PM (uM+37)

14 I am now convinced that O'Reilly travels to and from work in a clown car.

Driven by Fred Barnes with Morton Kondracke in the trunk.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 15, 2009 07:54 PM (uM+37)

15

Authors Claim in Washington Post that Ahmadinejad Really Was Winning 2-to-1 Before the Election

Why are they bothering to tell us this?  To justify the shooting of the dissenters?  To justify Obama's refusal to take a stand?

Posted by: katya at June 15, 2009 07:54 PM (oRJZj)

16 We already know that it takes ACORN a while to get the numbers right.

What is the big deal?

Posted by: Larry Sheldon at June 15, 2009 07:56 PM (OmeRL)

17 "I am now convinced that O'Reilly travels to and from work in a clown car."

I love O'Reilly...he's fucking hilarious.

Posted by: palin steele at June 15, 2009 07:57 PM (VDj74)

18 If you were happy with the incumbent, you'd express support for him in polls. You wouldn't say "I don't know."

Or you might even be telling the pollster you'd vote for him, when you really weren't, because that's what the authorities want to hear.  I'd say that 34%'s as suspect as the other numbers.

Posted by: nickless at June 15, 2009 08:01 PM (MMC8r)

19 I'm thinking that this palin steele could be my next boy-toy.

Hey, boy. You want to practice kissing a man?

Posted by: Nigel Tufts at June 15, 2009 08:01 PM (/8Gs3)

20 Plus the extreme DNA!

Posted by: Waterhouse at June 15, 2009 08:11 PM (Znnjc)

21 Maybe the poll was run by Gallup with their usual multi-outcome variety. It seemed to work here, this way, no matter what happens, they got it right.

Posted by: BTMintheSTL at June 15, 2009 08:13 PM (kGDTD)

22

that's all I needed to read to realize this post is worthless

And yet ... here you are.

Posted by: Warden at June 15, 2009 08:15 PM (pcwng)

23 This silly article brings to mind an old passage from PJ O'Rourke's Give War a Chance.  Writing about the end of the Sandinistas in Nicaragua, he said something along the lines of, "sheepishly, I have to admit that I believed an opinion poll in a country where holding certain opinions is illegal.  I can imagine the conversation: 'Hello, Mr. Peasant.  I'm an inquisitive and frightening stranger.  God knows who I work for.  Should I mark you down as supporting the ruling party, or should we just tear up your ration card right here and now?"

It's paraphrased, but that was the jist of it, and it's just as true now in Iran as in Nicaragua twenty years ago.

Excellent Radar, right into the clippings folder.

Posted by: Jean at June 15, 2009 08:18 PM (xCBQ4)

24 11 "Thanks to kdabear." - Ace

that's all I needed to read to realize this post is worthless
Posted by: palin steele at June 15, 2009 07:50 PM

Oh, remember in that NYT thread when you were crying for someone to come rescue you from the meanie morons? Well, here ya go

112 51 Who's the allahpundit of this blog...I need to find him. I need an ally.

In 1972 , a crack commando unit was sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit. These men promptly escaped from a maximum-security stockade to the Los Angeles underground. Today, still wanted by the government, they survive as soldiers of fortune. If you have a problem...if no one else can help...and if you can find them...maybe you can hire...The A- Team

Posted by: kbdabear at June 15, 2009 08:19 PM (93F13)

25 For Obama's biographer:  This is the day the wheels fell off.

Posted by: rdbrewer at June 15, 2009 08:20 PM (biLry)

26 14 I am now convinced that O'Reilly travels to and from work in a clown car.

Driven by Fred Barnes with Morton Kondracke in the trunk.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 15, 2009 07:54 PM

I love the pink Mazda Miata they gave me to drive to work in. I love the lipstick holder in the console too.

Posted by: Shep Smith-Cooper at June 15, 2009 08:22 PM (93F13)

27 Kdabear, So you get the Retro TV Network now, too

Posted by: Jean at June 15, 2009 08:22 PM (xCBQ4)

28 Confession: Watching the A-Team in German was really funny especially after having a few.

Posted by: UofC Conservative at June 15, 2009 08:24 PM (ivwt+)

29 27 Kdabear, So you get the Retro TV Network now, too

Yup, through the fillings in my teeth. You should see how I managed to hook up the digital broadcast converter box

Posted by: kbdabear at June 15, 2009 08:25 PM (93F13)

30 rdbrewer, for such a media savvy group I don't see how they can keep effing things up, they must have fired their campaign speechwriters for paying their taxes.. 

Imagine the effect of Kennedy-like white house twitter back to those desperate Iranian students, run some carriers thru the straights, or a the quick movement of a couple of mechanized brigades towards the Kurdish/Iranian border. 

Send some signals Obama - make DinnerJacket check his six.  Anything that can be done to add to the regime's cognative load increases the chance for a stratgic error.

Posted by: Jean at June 15, 2009 08:28 PM (xCBQ4)

Posted by: Scout Finch at June 15, 2009 08:30 PM (UJIeT)

32 My kids are running around signed the Black Sheep song with the youngest doing the siren.

Posted by: Jean at June 15, 2009 08:30 PM (xCBQ4)

33
Retro TV Network is great!

Posted by: Unicles at June 15, 2009 08:31 PM (Pff7c)

34 That's singing not signing.

Posted by: Jean at June 15, 2009 08:32 PM (xCBQ4)

35 No, seriously Ace, I'm really into uncut non-Jew cock. I gobble so much of that stuff that I make Kobayashi look like an amateur.

Posted by: Nigel Tufts at June 15, 2009 08:35 PM (/8Gs3)

36 How comforting to have a president with the balls of a mouse.

Posted by: Scout Finch at June 15, 2009 08:35 PM (UJIeT)

37 The article in Curmudgeon's  comment is well written and worth reading.  It, however, misses the laughable graph of election returns that has been floating around which insists dinner jacket got 2/3 of the vote in every single district,  as close to an impossibility as can occur in statistics.

Another question for anyone trying to rationalize their way to legitimizing Iran's 'election':  where exactly are the counter protests?  If dinner jacket really won in this great a landslide, why are the only people opposing the protesters the ones wearing uniforms (or carrying weaponry not permitted the average citizen).  And why all the arab mercenaries?

Posted by: Methos at June 15, 2009 08:35 PM (wU8X9)

38

why all the arab mercenaries?

I guess Iranians have issues with killing their own people. That's why you need pinch "hitters".

Posted by: UofC Conservative at June 15, 2009 08:38 PM (ivwt+)

39

Imagine the effect of Kennedy-like white house twitter back to those desperate Iranian students, run some carriers thru the straights, or a the quick movement of a couple of mechanized brigades towards the Kurdish/Iranian border. 

Yes!  The effect?  A three-hour full-body orgasm (cribbing from Ace).  (The words, not the orgasm.)  At least on my part.  Heh.

Posted by: rdbrewer at June 15, 2009 08:38 PM (biLry)

Posted by: royalmewigs at June 15, 2009 08:43 PM (VDUGV)

41

Twitter is rescheduling the planned downtime because of the Iranian elections/riots.


Twitter's host NTT America is postponing the downtime that was scheduled to take place late Monday night in light of all of the Twitter activity surrounding the presidential elections in Iran.

A post by Twitter co-founder Biz Stone on Twitter's blog says that the maintenance will instead take place on Tuesday from 2 to 3 p.m. PST, which will be in the early morning (1:30 a.m.) for Iranian users. Stone went on to say: "Our partners are taking a huge risk not just for Twitter but also the other services they support worldwide--we commend them for being flexible in what is essentially an inflexible situation."

http://tinyurl.com/kmqdcl


Posted by: Tami at June 15, 2009 08:44 PM (VuLos)

42 This would be a great time for a few of our swarthier-complected Special Forces/Seals types to sneak into Iran with some of the Iranian explosives we captured in Iraq. One or two nice explosions along an oil pipeline might really increase the pucker factor for the mullahs and Ahmadildo.

Oh, who am I kidding? I have a better chance of getting Turbo Tim to put Joan's but on the dollar bill.




Posted by: Josef K. at June 15, 2009 08:47 PM (70sTG)

43 Butt, that is. My spelling is as bad as Ogabe's foreign policy.

Posted by: Josef K. at June 15, 2009 08:49 PM (70sTG)

44 I think we can all agree that it is in the best interests of the people of the world that the candidate with the easier-to-pronounce name be declared the winner.

But it really doesn't matter. If one wins or the other wins, the theocracy is still in charge. If the theocracy is overthrown, we still have a nation of 60 million Muslims brought up to hate us with every bone of their bodies. They will freely gather and chant "Death to America! Death to the Jews!", and they will do this while listening to American music, wearing American clothing and cosmetics, drinking American soft drinks, and having never met a Jew. And they'll still want nuclear weapons.

We keep painting ourselves into a corner by saying "No, no, we have no quarrel with the people, it's the government that's the problem." But that government is as much an expression of the character of the Iranian people as the American government is an expression of our character. (We have fallen very far from the days of the Founders.) So in fact we do have a quarrel with the Iranian people, as long as they mutually decide to wrap themselves in the evil and hatred called Islam, sponsor terrorist groups throughout the world, wish death upon us, and seek to exterminate an entire ethnic group who only wants to live in peace on their ancestral lands.

Maybe some day the Iranians and other Muslims will come to the realization that their hatred brings them no benefit and makes their lives (and the rest of the world's) miserable, but I'm afraid it won't happen without an intervention in the form of a major ass whipping.

Posted by: lmg at June 15, 2009 09:09 PM (Qt4Y7)

45 palin steele,

Did Captain America say kdabear was a bad person?
Does kdabear lack moral authority?

WWCAD?

Posted by: Nom de Blog at June 15, 2009 09:27 PM (1Bods)

46 The puppy-blender just changed his color scheme from red to green.....

Awesome.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at June 15, 2009 09:30 PM (9Lm5R)

47 I guess Barry's Love Farts haven't reached Iran yet.

Posted by: eman at June 15, 2009 09:35 PM (alhZM)

48

lmg 44, with respect, you're wrong. This was tweeted from tehranbureau:

7 point statement distributed to protesters for today.

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret.

Just read this thing.

There are a lot of America haters and Jew haters in Iran, yes. But they are no longer the majority and they are not the ones trying to restore Persia into the ranks of world civilisations now.

Posted by: Zimriel at June 15, 2009 09:45 PM (UkH58)

49 I think Iranians, like Iraqis, are probably more "progressive" then the rest of the muslim world simply because they are more educated (on average). Are there a lot of Jew hating/American hating bastards, hell yes, but probably not as bad as Saudi Arabia.

Posted by: BTMintheSTL at June 15, 2009 09:53 PM (kGDTD)

50

Unfortunately, perhaps, these protests will not amount to anything.  If we have learned anything about Ahmadman and the Mullahs who put him in power, they are ruthless and don't mind killing.  If necessary, they will use the Revolutionary Guards to crush protestors with tanks.  They know from Obamas recent statements that they have nothing to fear from him.

Or, (more likely) they will simply disperse the crowds, and then quietly round up and "disappear" the leaders.  No martyrs to the cause, just a lot of secret executions. 

Posted by: BattleofthePyramids at June 15, 2009 10:06 PM (wTPxB)

51 Of course its true.  ACORN guarantees it.

Posted by: Thomas Jackson at June 15, 2009 10:20 PM (B8gqF)

52 #48, I'd love to be proven wrong.Good luck, to men of good will.

Posted by: lmg at June 15, 2009 10:57 PM (Qt4Y7)

53

The article in Curmudgeon's  comment is well written and worth reading.  It, however, misses the laughable graph of election returns that has been floating around which insists dinner jacket got 2/3 of the vote in every single district,  as close to an impossibility as can occur in statistics.

Don't get me wrong. I am totally supportive of the unrest in the cities. But if the surrounding countryside of Iran is full of goatfucking savages, do they stand a chance? I think that was the point of the article.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 15, 2009 11:14 PM (IPGTN)

54 It depends on how many people the dissidents have actively supporting them. If it's more than 30% and if the government doesn't have 100% of the military? Mr. DinnerJacket is probably in real trouble, here.

It is an interesting data point that he had to bring in foreign thugs to 'support' him.

Posted by: Warren Bonesteel at June 16, 2009 02:09 AM (ZMJCm)

55 Check this out:

http://tinyurl.com/mfb8vr


Posted by: fireweednectar at June 16, 2009 02:22 AM (MPC8g)

56 Now, for indepth intelligent discussion: palin steele - I'm curious which comic book character Ahmadinejad reminds you of?

Posted by: Frank G at June 16, 2009 07:02 AM (Aaspy)

57 For a million laughs, go over to the comments section of that WaPo article and skim through a few. If you don't have the time, here's a precis: It's all the Bush 'crime family'/US imperialists fault.  Some of these guys make Pukin' Stool look smart.

Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at June 16, 2009 09:01 AM (aC0uO)

58

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