1

The thing that makes this look like a good idea is the difference between their respective backgrounds.

McKiernan's is conventional, the other two are spec ops.

Fighting the Taliban is all about spec ops.

2 I'm excited to see a man with SOF credentials take the lead. Let's see what he can do.

3 I'm not even going to pretend I know enough about these men to render judgment. The fact is there are only a handful of people who are and they (Gates, Adm. Mullen and Gen. Petraeus) seem to on board with the change.

I hope you're right, but with the administration's proclivities to threaten folks into silence (and compliance) I'm not sure that the apparent approval of Petraeus et al means much of anything. (Frankly, I'm not sure I trust Gates anyway.)

4
There's no telling why, it could be something going back to their time at the Point or when they were both 2nd looeys.  OTOH, what's an armored cav guy doing running an insurgency-mountain war?

5 The right tool for the right job.

6 Pakistan is the real problem and I'll be damned if I have even the faintest inkling of how to attack it.

7 Circa

With Genghis Khan.

8 Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at May 12, 2009 11:39 AM (B+qrE)

No one does but two flag officers with SF and counter insurgency experience is likely a good place to start.

9

Drew, I agree that the command picks appear to be solid.  However, squeezing the Afghan balloon will result in enormous pressure on the Paks and I'm not sure that they a) want to handle it or b) can handle it.

The slog that lies ahead is going to make Iraq look like a cakewalk.

10

It doesn’t matter. Il Douche is going to pull everyone out before a year is up anyway.

11 Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at May 12, 2009 11:51 AM (B+qrE)

Agreed.

I think we need to reevaluate what 'victory' in Afghanistan means.

Removing Saddam gave Iraq a chance because Iraq was a relatively 'normal' country with lots of resources that was suffering from a dictator tax. Remove the 'tax' and you might just have a civil society.

Afghanistan? Um, what the hell does "winning" look like? They have no resources, no real skilled population base, none of the building blocks of a country and certainly no history to fall back on.

The more we try and do there, the worse we make Pakistan. It's a pretty vicious cycle.

12

They have no resources, no real skilled population base, none of the building blocks of a country and certainly no history to fall back on.

It's Somalia without a coastline (thank God for small favors). 

Here'sa cheery thought--We're going to have many, many more failed states if the economic sledding gets much rougher.  Then what?

No, I don't have an answer.

13 No, I don't have an answer.

If it makes you feel any better, neither did the Romans when the barbarians came calling.

Wait, that's not comforting....

14

Minor point -- but McArthur was a 5 star general ("General of the Army").  McArthur was promoted to that rank in 1944 along with Marshall, Eisenhower & Arnold.

 

15 Semi-Off Topic:

Afghan schoolkids target of possible chemical attacks?

None seriously hurt thankfully, but wow. Those 'freedom fighters' are a bunch of classy lads. Ain't that right, Cloud?

16

Wait, that's not comforting....

Not to worry.  I've had the feeling for some time that a great conflagration is inevitable.  I'm just trying to sort out what the "sides" will look like. 

Nope, that't not comforting either.

17 A change in command at this level indicates a major change in strategy (usually). But it's not clear to me what the new strategy is going to be: the main problem is in Pakistan, not Afghanistan, and until that problem is solved, nothing in Afghanistan is going to change.

The main advantage that McChrystal may bring is the viewpoint of a SpecOps guy. Specifically regarding the drug trade in Afghanistan. Burning some peasant's livelihood is just going to drive more people into criminal activity. I think the key is going to lie in co-opting the drug lords and convincing them to do business with the government rather than trying to subvert it.

I've often thought that the biggest postive step that America could take in Afghanistan would be to commit to buying the entire opium crop in a given year -- at above-market rates. The opium could be used in a variety of non-illicit ways (mainly for medical morphine), but it would serve to remove the violent gangland aspect of the drug trade. But no: we have to carry our stupid "drug war" mentality all the way to an area where it makes even less sense than it does here. I hope and pray that McChrystal understands that, and has a mandate to act accordingly.

But don't get your hopes up. Like I said, the missing piece to this puzzle lies in Pakistan.

18

If it makes you feel any better, neither did the Romans when the barbarians came calling.

Well, if it makes you feel better, this time it's fucking hilarious.

Goths, Huns, Visigoths, Vandals and the rest weren't funny.

In today's fall, we have Jimmy Carter, the man whose solution to his energy "crisis" was to tell me to put on a sweater, giving expert testimony to the Senate on energy policy, which testimony involves global worming I'm sure, in the 7th consecutive colder year.

Dude, that's funny.

 

19 Posted by: Veeshir at May 12, 2009 12:28 PM (zXUuJ)

I kind of had in mind the over run of Europe by Muslim immigration and the like. Yeah, old Europe was a pain in the ass but I think in the not too distant future we're going to be longing for the days of dealing with the comedic stylings of Jacques Chirac and Friends.

20 I think what you're seeing here is Gates saying "I'm not Rumsfeld." We went into Iraq with too few boots and the wrong brains, Rumsfeld let the Army brass dither around for far too long, Bush finally fired him but at least two years too late to save this country from The Nightmare That Is Obama.

21 @ 18 , Yup, The first time is tragedy, the second time is farce.

The only thing I didn't like was the way this change seems to have been spun. local rag where I'm at had the headline "Afghan Commander Fired," which from your description of events seems a mighty unfair assessment.

22 Incompetence on the Bamster's watch.So it ain't so ,Joe.

23 Fix the typos, guys. It's "combatant" not "combatnat" ...

Jesus. Do we want to completely lose our credibility? I realize we are the "stupid party," but WTF?

24 My impression is that Pakistan is basically acting like Chiang Kai Shek in WWWII. They take US aid, then either hoard or syphon off materiel for dubious purposes, but don't fight the enemy we want them to fight.

25 #17 - Interesting line of thought Monty. Glad to see you got your work done and made it back.

26 I've often thought that the biggest postive step that America could take in Afghanistan would be to commit to buying the entire opium crop in a given year -- at above-market rates.
Posted by: Monty at May 12, 2009 12:21 PM (/0a60)

I agree with you in theory but would it work in practice?

The Taliban isn't simply going to let the farmers sell to the highest bidder, they are going to start chopping heads off (and don't forget some will prefer to sell to the Taliban over the government).

Can we force enough farmers to sell to us? It strikes me that gets to the whole security issue. Like in Iraq, no one wants to work with us if we aren't there to protect them 5 minutes after we walk away with the crop.

And if we only get half or whatever percentage of the crop, does the inevitable rise in price on the market enable the bad guys to make up the money the lost in volume?

Again, I agree with the theory, I'm just not sure it works in practice. That said, there are no guarantees in this world so it's worth a shot.

27

>> I've often thought that the biggest postive step that America could take in Afghanistan would be to commit to buying the entire opium crop in a given year -- at above-market rates.

 

Yup.  One of the biggest motivators for locals in Iraq planting bombs or moving weapons was a 70-80% unemployment in provinces away from Baghdad.  People gotta eat.

28 The Left is already coming after this hero:

http://www.polmachina.com/?p=161

29

We could also help them to switch from opium poppies to other crops.  I read a few months ago that Afghanistan is a prime location for growing pomegranates, which are a ridiculously expensive and trendy fruit.  Pomegranate is in everything right now.  Perhaps there are other crops, also, that are unique and easily grown in that environment that could replace poppy.

 

30

Did Mckinernan and McChrystal not get along? Did McKinernan refuse to implement some strategy suggested by McChrystal?  If not, why fire McKinernan instead of having your 'two bench guys' provide their input regard to strategy.  Being in command of the theater is more than just fighting.  It requires political skill , communication skills and logistical skills.  From what I understand McKinernan provided those.  

That said, I hope the change shows positive results and not just a status quo.  

31

I don't understand the firing.  There are no hints of insubordination in any of the coverage.   So why not remove him in a manner that lets him save face.  He was obviously a very dedicated and capable leader (how else can you explain four stars).  Instead, Gates has essentially ended 37 years of dedicated service on an unnecessarily public and unnecessarily sour note. 

 

32 Posted by: polynikes at May 12, 2009 01:22 PM (m2CN7)

You can't have 2 ideologies running a theatre. Also there was a gentleman on Fox this morning saying this had been in the works for a while. Mentioned that McKiernen had said some things on PBS in an interview that rattled some people really good. He said:

"The brass really didn't like what he said"

33 Monty,

buying the entire opium crop in a given year

1st - buying drugs is specifically prohibited by law, need to change that if this idea is to have any legs,  and medical opium is strictly regulated - so structural changes there would have to be implemented.

2nd - the farmers are already in an opium debt to the brokers, buying the crop means they will still have to pay back the brokers for years if not generations of debt- so the money doesn't stay in the villages - it goes up the chain, where the Taliban will tax it.

3rd - the Taliban earns money from the drug trade by extortion, "security taxes," moreso then direct trade.  Buying crop may actually improve the financial position of the Taliban, they won't get paid in opium (that they have to transport and sell, or stockpile) and it will accelerate their cash receivables.

4th - this would require a massive ground operation and logistics; all of which would be targeted by the Taliban.  If we had that kind of capability, why not just eradicate?

The opium trade is an effect of the lack of good governance.  The lack of good governance maybe extenuated by the corrupting influence of narcotics wealth, but the core problem is the tribal allegiances and difficult geography.

My pet solution is a redrawing of unrealistic political boundaries imposed by colonial powers that specifically made local governance difficult.  We need a Baluchistan, a Pashtun-stan, a Dari-Stan, a bigger Tajikstan, and a Punjabi-stan (ie a smaller Pakistan) -- or something similiar. (also, Same thing in Africa)  Smaller states with shorter lines of communication and ethnic homogeneity is the best place to start, then economic reforms, then worry about drugs, democracy, etc. All the while, we hunt terrorists.

34

DrewM. --

"Removing Saddam gave Iraq a chance because Iraq was a relatively 'normal' country with lots of resources that was suffering from a dictator tax. Remove the 'tax' and you might just have a civil society."  -- Iraq had a military tradition involving lots of losing.  They never won a war and were dominated by other nations most of recorded history.  Saddaam ran a brutally effective police state, and removed most of the natural leadership of the society.  Their civil society fell apart because there isn't anyone competent to run it. 

"Afghanistan? Um, what the hell does "winning" look like? They have no resources, no real skilled population base, none of the building blocks of a country and certainly no history to fall back on."  -- They have a definite, long, proud history.  It is the history of "the graveyard of empires."  They have a history of kicking out invaders.  Winning, to them, means being left alone.  Winning, to us, looks like the Afghan Joe Sixpack seeing the US as their friends and the Al Qaeda foreigners and Taliban warlords as their oppressors.  

WIthin the Army, there is lots of speculation right now about the Real Story.  I haven't heard much negative about GEN McKiernan.  Haven't heard much negative about the strategies he has been developing.  The new team are definitely studs, and I hope the best for them.  Don't know what the problem was with the old team, though.  Standing by for more information. 

 

 

 

35 Posted by: Brian at May 12, 2009 01:30 PM (cJ5eN)

Because it's about winning. It sucks but McKinernan is a big boy and undoubtedly he's stepped on a few backs to get where he is (well, was). He knows the rules and will live with it.

Leadership (Gates, Mullen, Petraeus and yes, Obama) didn't think he was part of of the solution and that made him a problem. There's no place for sentiment here. If they think McChrystal/Rodriquez can do better they are obligated to make the switch.

Firing a commander is a drastic step but it's better than sticking with a lesser option. We probably haven't fired enough over the course of nearly 8 years of war.

There still seems to be a desire to hold onto peace time promotion systems. Look what it took to get McMaster his flag. That's was fucking crazy. Running a war isn't a ticket punching slot, it's got to be results driven.

36 Their civil society fell apart because there isn't anyone competent to run it.
Posted by: Tobias Magan at May 12, 2009 02:03 PM (niydV)

True from a political point of view. They do however have doctors, teachers, engineers, etc. not to mention oil literally coming out of the ground. That's a pretty good foundation upon which to build a country.

As for the military histories of Iraq and Afghanistan, fair enough but that alone is not enough to build a nation around.  Look at Jean's post. There's not really such a thing as "Afghanistan". Never really has been except when imposed by force.

Yes, Iraq is a conglomeration of cultures and religious sects but there is a much stronger sense of Iraqi identity (save the Kurds).

If I had to bet on which of the two is likely to become a stable and decent state, I'd put all my money on Iraq.

37

What does victory in Afghanistan look like? 

Nationalized health care.  All the morphine you need.

38 Well, if Obama wants the new guy, how can we go wrong...

39

A buddy of mine (West Pointer, former Gen Officer staff) had this to say (after I asked why Petraeus was in the background on this announcement)...

"He (Petraus) is the one who made the decision. No doubt. McKiernan is a tanker and McCrystal a green beret. I think he thought McKiernan was too passive.
Really touchy on GO moves."

40 Unccle Jefe, my brother, a higher up officer slated to head to Afghanistan in June, generally concurs in the assessment made by your friend.  McKiernan is out and McCrystal in because of McCrystal's background in special ops.  Afghanistan was never the place for a tanker per the bro.

41 Well that should be "Uncle" Jefe - sorry for messing up your nic!

42 Gosh, if we could only do this to the White House. . .

43

Thank you to the man on the way out for his outstanding service so far.  I'm sure he remains a great asset to this Country.

And best wishes to the man on the way in for success.

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"Leadership (Gates, Mullen, Petraeus and yes, Obama) didn't think he was part of of the solution and that made him a problem. There's no place for sentiment here. . . Firing a commander is a drastic step but it's better than sticking with a lesser option. We probably haven't fired enough over the course of nearly 8 years of war. " -- I don't disagree with this.  Rumsfeld and Sanchez (IMHO) should have been canned early.  It just hasn't been the practice so far, and there hasn't been any announced change in policy.  The 'strategy changes' that Gates is talking about implementing (so far) are ones developed under McKiernan.  And the whole tanker/special ops thing isn't a valid way to determine policy, especially at the 4-star level.  If he wasn't highly competent in more than one mode, he wouldn't have made it to that level.  When was the last time McKiernan commanded an actual armor unit - 1995? 

On the other hand, the new member of the National Command Authority has shown a propensity for throwing people under the bus when it suits his purposes.  Haven't seen any evidence to say that that isn't what is going on here.  I'm open to information, when it comes out.

"They do however have doctors, teachers, engineers, etc. not to mention oil literally coming out of the ground. That's a pretty good foundation upon which to build a country."  -- Helpful, but not a sufficient condition.  There is a definite power structure in Iraq.  It's just not very good.  The doctors and engineers can't make headway when the government is shaking them down for money every time they turn a profit.  The oil business is pumping quite a bit, but some godawful percentage of the profit is stolen as a cut comes out at each stage of the distribution system.   

"that alone is not enough to build a nation around." --  I don't think they want to build a nation.  They want independence.  They want to be left alone.  Maybe we need to convince Joe Afghan that a stable central government is the best way to be left alone. 

46

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