Counterinsurgency Expert: Pakistan on Brink of Collapse "Within Months"

He's served both Bush and now Obama. And he says Pakistan keeps him up at night.

PAKISTAN could collapse within months, one of the more influential counter-insurgency voices in Washington says.
...
"We have to face the fact that if Pakistan collapses it will dwarf anything we have seen so far in whatever we're calling the war on terror now," said David Kilcullen, a former Australian Army officer who was a specialist adviser for the Bush administration and is now a consultant to the Obama White House.

I like his offhanded put-down of Obama's euphemisms.

"You just can't say that you're not going to worry about al-Qaeda taking control of Pakistan and its nukes," he said.
...
When he unveiled his new "Afpak" policy in Washington last month, the US President, Barack Obama, warned that while al-Qaeda would fill the vacuum if Afghanistan collapsed, the terrorist group was already rooted in Pakistan, plotting more attacks on the US.
"The safety of people round the world is at stake," he said.
Laying out the scale of the challenges facing the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan, Dr Kilcullen put the two countries invaded by US-led forces after the September 11 attacks on the US on a par - each had a population of more than 30 million.
"But Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army, and the headquarters of al-Qaeda sitting in two-thirds of the country which the Government does not control," he told the Herald .

As Joe Biden said, mark my words and gird your loins.

Posted by: Ace at 01:13 PM

Comments

My loins are pretty much perma-girded these days.

Don't worry, Obama will negotiate this out somehow. Have faith.

Posted by: doug at April 13, 2009 01:18 PM (UpJts)

2 Someone needs to translate this report from Australian into English and get it on the President's desk.

Posted by: kefka at April 13, 2009 01:19 PM (fKivs)

3 From the article: "But Pakistan has 173 million people and 100 nuclear weapons, an army which is bigger than the American army..."
Really? Pakistan's army is bigger than the US Army?? Really???

Posted by: jlp at April 13, 2009 01:19 PM (wSD2h)

4 mark my words and gird your loins.

At this point it's bordering on S&M.

Posted by: Rocks at April 13, 2009 01:21 PM (Q1lie)

5 If David Kilcullen is saying that you can take it to the bank, unfortunately.

Posted by: rageaholic at April 13, 2009 01:21 PM (z/8AK)

6 Technically, yes, there are more people in the Pakistan army than is the US armed forces. Under most scenarios all this really means is more people for us to bomb, its the fact that they have nukes that ought to scare the shit out of everyone paying attention.

Posted by: Ryan Frank at April 13, 2009 01:21 PM (hX2rY)

7 Calm down, it's just another overseas contingency operation made necessary by a man-caused-disaster.

Posted by: President Obama at April 13, 2009 01:26 PM (Xm1aB)

What kind of support do you think we could expect from G20 on this? We can't be the only ones affected by this. I would think that there would be a pretty big group of countries that would see this as a big problem.

Posted by: Roadking at April 13, 2009 01:26 PM (eSmnI)

Kilcullen isn't just an ordinary advisor, he was actually Petraeus' senior advisor on the surge. He is an expert on the middle east and Muslim countires. He probably has a better handle on the situations in Afghanistan and Pakistan than anyone in our government.

If he's worried, I'm worried.

Posted by: JackStraw at April 13, 2009 01:27 PM (VW9/y)

My loins hurt.

Should we also be worried about Thailand melting down right now?

Posted by: ParanoidGirlInSeattle at April 13, 2009 01:27 PM (AJ4xq)

11 Well let's poop a few more poopy into poop and see if poo poo helps at all. Or better yet since the poop poop worked so well there let's POOPY!

Posted by: John ryan at April 13, 2009 01:28 PM (LHCAa)

12 Anyone else smell that ........smells like Troll.

Posted by: Roadking at April 13, 2009 01:30 PM (eSmnI)

Obama needs to bring those 3 SEAL snipers with him to Pakistan and have them set up behind him when he starts talking.

"See those guys behind me? Yeah, those are the guys. Now, here's what's going to happen..."

Posted by: EC at April 13, 2009 01:31 PM (mAhn3)

14 If gird means "apply lotion and thrash mercilessly", then consider my loins girded.

Posted by: right at April 13, 2009 01:37 PM (EquV1)

Markie Marxist sez: "I'm not worried. Obama won't prevent the collapse of Pakistan. Then our Jihadi allies can get the nukes and an American city will eventually go up in a mushroom cloud. Our Jihadi allies will have then succeeded where we Marxists had only failed. Bill Ayers never blew up anything with a nuke! Ha! Ha! Granted, we'll lose more of our Democrats than Republicans in the nuclear blast since it will be an urban area, but we'll more than make up for it with the clampdown on freedom in America that we will so righteously impose afterwards. No one in America will be able to so much as breathe without permission from the government, that is, permission from us Marxists. Ha! Ha! Victory is within our grasp!"

Posted by: Chas at April 13, 2009 01:39 PM (yjDfo)

16 Well, to give a serious answer to a moron troll: yes, lobbing Hellfires into Pakistan and killing bad guys is an excellent tactical plan. Will it solve the problem? No, of course not, only a fool would think that...oh, never mind.

Posted by: NJconservative at April 13, 2009 01:41 PM (nwJit)

17 I've said all along that Pakistan, along with North Korea, is one of the nexuses around which a nuclear war will start. Pakistan is not just a failed state; it is a state that never really was. Pakistan has never really had a functioning central government, nor has it ever had real control of its restive northern provinces. Its economy has always been a shambles. It has no real future as a country -- it will either be reabsorbed into India after much bloodshed, or it'll simply devolve into a clutch of terrorist squats (with nuclear weapons, let us remember).

And the author of the linked piece is absolutely correct: the scale of collapse in Pakistan dwarfs anything we've dealt with so far by many magnitudes. 200 million people is a lot of people -- about two-thirds the population of the United States. And probably 100 million of those people are poor, uneducated Muslims who would be eager to be led by the first Islamist strongman to make an appeal.

I wonder if India will tolerate a Pakistani collapse, or if they'd invade first. They might invade, because they'd be the first targets of any nuclear shenanigans the Islamists would get up to. But this presupposes that India has the military strength to invade -- I rather suspect that they don't. Which leaves open a nuclear tit-for-tat.

Scary stuff.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 01:42 PM (/0a60)

18 > As Joe Biden said, mark my words and gird your loins.

Meh. I'll just send in those otter guys. Now, where's my pizza?

Posted by: Comrade Obama at April 13, 2009 01:43 PM (Rewep)

19 Pakistan's population has been radicalized beyond repair. The average Pakistani knows that he can never prosper as much as the rest of the world, and would settle for destroying the world to bring it to his level of wretched existence.

Pakistan is like a big suicide bomber with 173 million fanatic human explosives strapped to his belt.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 01:43 PM (PGSXB)

20 I wonder if India will tolerate a Pakistani collapse, or if they'd invade first. They might invade, because they'd be the first targets of any nuclear shenanigans the Islamists would get up to. But this presupposes that India has the military strength to invade -- I rather suspect that they don't. Which leaves open a nuclear tit-for-tat.

An Indian invasion is what I expect at some point if Pakistan starts to collapse. The only question I have is whether the Pakistani military will use the nukes on India if that happens.

At the very least, I'd expect India to take advantage of the unrest to "neutralize" certain chunks of the ISI, especially those believed to have a hand in the Bombay attacks.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at April 13, 2009 01:46 PM (fVzUi)

21 >>But this presupposes that India has the military strength to invade

Monty, India has the Military strength to invade Pakistan and destroy it's Military, but does not have the financial backbone yet to endure the aftermath, especially if it means sacrificing a few Indian cities. And it certainly has neither the will nor the resources to occupy Pakistan.

>>it will either be reabsorbed into India after much bloodshed

No thanks. It is like an amputated gangrenous limb. We don't want it reattached.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 01:48 PM (PGSXB)

22 Brandon:

The Indian military could neutralize Pakistani forces in the south; they could do that. They could even probably put a clamp on the bigger Pakistani population centers of Lahore, Islamabad, and Karachi. But I very much doubt they'd be able to take and hold the hinterlands, or even pacify the populations in the largest cities. It would be an absolute bloodbath on both sides, and one in which civilians would suffer horribly. And anyway, any attack (even conventional) on a population center would probably prompt a nuclear response from the Pak military -- they know that they're no match for the Indians conventionally. Would the Indians ally with the Americans to get some missile-interceptors on station? Would they be willing to risk losing Delhi or Bangalore in a nuclear exchange?

Ultimately, the Indians may simply wait and see what shape a Pakistani collapse takes. If it spills over their borders or totally upsets Kashmir, the Indians might intervene; but if the Paks can keep things bottled up on the right side of the border, the Indians may just wait and see what happens.

Another interesting facet: would the American military unilaterally act to take out Pakistan's nukes? Given't Obama's high-profile promises in regards to the Afghan war, any Pakistani collapse would inevitably involve our forces there. For all intents and purposes, the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan would disappear.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 01:54 PM (/0a60)

23 Obama do something decisive? That'll be the day. Anytime something sours and you need guts to see it thru, you can count on The One retreating.

Posted by: GarandFan at April 13, 2009 01:56 PM (An77a)

24 Pakistan's standing army is at about 620,000 with a reserve force of over 500,000 according to the guardian. So this is smaller than the US in total, but larger than the force that we could put on land for sure. We had trouble getting more than 130,000 into Iraq.

Posted by: JAFKIAC at April 13, 2009 01:59 PM (wJikK)

25 Pakistan's standing army is at about 620,000 with a reserve force of over 500,000 according to the guardian. So this is smaller than the US in total, but larger than the force that we could put on land for sure.

Yes, but there is a vast difference in the quality of the forces under arms. An American BCT (Brigade Combat Team) probably has a greater striking power than any force three times its size anywhere else in the world. Lots of warm conscript bodies don't mean much these days, not even for crowd control.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 02:02 PM (/0a60)

26
The Indian military could neutralize Pakistani forces in the south; they could do that. They could even probably put a clamp on the bigger Pakistani population centers of Lahore, Islamabad, and Karachi. But I very much doubt they'd be able to take and hold the hinterlands, or even pacify the populations in the largest cities.

If I were India, I wouldn't want to try and take out the whole country... I'd be most concerned with crippling the Pakistani army's ability to respond as well as seizing all nuke tech and hanging AQ Khan from the nearest tree.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at April 13, 2009 02:04 PM (fVzUi)

Wouldn't it be a living hell if we had to listen to Obama and the media talk about Pah-kee-stan every day? On top of the bad war sort of things that could happen.

Posted by: estee at April 13, 2009 02:06 PM (xlYqZ)

28 Pakistan, if you believe the US Dept. of State, has the world's eighth largest military. India's army is somewhere around 1.1 million, again according to US Dept. of State, which makes it almost twice as large as the Paki's army. India's air force is significantly more modern while Pakistan's is outdated.

India invading Pakistan will most likely result in a nuclear exchange.

Posted by: Penfold at April 13, 2009 02:06 PM (lF2Kk)

29 I have been hearing since childhood that if India were to open the floodgates on all the river dams on it's western border, massive urban swaths of Pakistan will be completely washed away. I don't know if this is true, but if it is, I hope they don't take that option off the table.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 02:08 PM (PGSXB)

If Pakistan does implode, it is going to attract a lot more attention than just the Indians. China sits just to the north, Iran to the west and Russia and the Stans will definitely have a say.

This could easily be the tipping point for a world war. The Great Game continues.

Posted by: JackStraw at April 13, 2009 02:09 PM (VW9/y)

31 The failed Pakistan of the past eight years...

Posted by: reason at April 13, 2009 02:13 PM (V40IZ)

32 Tushar:

Wouldn't opening the floodgates pretty much take out Bangladesh as well? The whole country is nothing but a huge floodplain in the Ganges Delta, after all. Even cyclones routinely flood out large sections of the country.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 02:14 PM (/0a60)

33 JackStraw,

China sees India as a rival, and is responsible for arming Pakistan with nukes and nuke-delivery missiles. If India gets into a hot war with Pakistan, I am afraid that China will take advantage of the situation to cripple India in some way. We have nuke-tipped missiles aimed their way, but if they keep their involvement under the radar and through proxies, even that becomes useless.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 02:14 PM (PGSXB)

34 Monty, Bangladesh is on the Eastern border. We will remember not to open the taps on those dams.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 02:15 PM (PGSXB)

35 But yes, you are right. India can definitely flood Bangladesh. I have it on authority from an Engineer who worked on one of those Eastern dams.
I don't know if this was by design or not.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 02:17 PM (PGSXB)

I'm not afraid.

(1) Obama is a lightworker and his smart diplomacy will prevail. Greenland melting is a far more realistic cause for concern.

(2) Joe Biden said that Obama would be tested and that people would find out "he has steel in his spine."

(3) And besides, it's Bushitler's fault in the first place.

Posted by: RM at April 13, 2009 02:18 PM (1kwr2)

37 India needs to buddy up with Israel for anti-missile tech since they aren't going to be getting it from us.

Posted by: toby928 at April 13, 2009 02:19 PM (PD1tk)

38 25 Pakistan's standing army is at about 620,000 with a reserve force of over 500,000 according to the guardian. So this is smaller than the US in total, but larger than the force that we could put on land for sure.

Yes, but there is a vast difference in the quality of the forces under arms. An American BCT (Brigade Combat Team) probably has a greater striking power than any force three times its size anywhere else in the world. Lots of warm conscript bodies don't mean much these days, not even for crowd control.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 02:02 PM (/0a60)

Of this there is no doubt. And if fact, I do not think anybody would believe that a conventional war would take very long, much like Iraq. I was just pointing out the statement that their army is larger is not true in terms of total people, however that they do have a sizable force on the ground. Also, they are currently a volunteer army and not conscripts.

Again, not to say that it would be a fair fight, but I believe some people seemed to be taken aback by the larger than the US army statement.

Posted by: JAFKIAC at April 13, 2009 02:22 PM (wJikK)

39 Well, President for Life Hussein did say he was going to invade Pockeystahn. Will this be the one promise he keeps?

Posted by: shibumi at April 13, 2009 02:28 PM (OKZrE)

40 India needs to buddy up with Israel for anti-missile tech since they aren't going to be getting it from us.

Well, I don't know if the Isreali Arrow system can intercept ballistic rockets. It's more like our Patriot system. What the Indians need is something more like our THAAD/SM-3 interceptors, which can use AEGIS radars to kill missiles while they're still in boost or rollover phase. And the Indians would probably be in a launch-on-target-confirmation stance, which means that they'd launch their own missile(s) as soon as it became apparent than an Indian asset was targeted by the incoming missile (i.e., on rollover of the ballistic arc). And the Indians would have a much higher chance of a hit because: a) their missiles are better; and b) their warheads are better. This is why I think Pakistan would go all-out if the go nuclear. Just one nuke wouldn't do it, because the Paks know they'd get creamed in the counterbarrage. They'd fire their whole arsenal, chanting Allahu Akbar! the whole time. And about four minutes later, their entire country would be atomized in the Indian response.

It's scary to think about, but I don't know how likely any of this is. "Collapse" means many things in this context. Pakistan has a long history of military coups, and the army might simply pull another one off. It's mainly a question of where the population is at mentally, and how restive they are.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 02:29 PM (/0a60)

Anyone remember the episodes of "The Andy Griffith Show" when Andy would leave town and everything would go completely to hell on Barney's watch?

Pakistan is Otis.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 13, 2009 02:30 PM (B+qrE)

42 29 I have been hearing since childhood that if India were to open the floodgates on all the river dams on it's western border, massive urban swaths of Pakistan will be completely washed away. I don't know if this is true, but if it is, I hope they don't take that option off the table.

Very interesting point.

Posted by: shibumi at April 13, 2009 02:31 PM (OKZrE)

43 I have every reason to believe that Joe is going to don a sports coat and sunglasses and go knock on Pakistan's door with his Beretta and set them silly wogs straight. Yes Sir Ree! You just wait and see!

When they see him sans pants and shoes, they're gonna double over laughing so hard that old Joe will have 'em dead in his sights. You just wait!

Posted by: torabora at April 13, 2009 02:32 PM (Kjyr0)

44 Pakistan should have slammed down hard on the radical Muslims a long time ago, but they didn't and now they're paying the price. This is a nation we can't let fall.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at April 13, 2009 02:36 PM (PQY7w)

45 This could easily be the tipping point for a world war.

Do we have to choose a side this time? I have no animosity whatsoever towards India, but jumping in between China, Russia, India, and Poki-stan during a hot war seems like an insane death-wish.

...oh, and insert standard Princess Bride quote here.

Posted by: Chimney Sweep #8 at April 13, 2009 02:37 PM (kIjlp)

46 Very scary stuff. I was unaware of that last paragraph. Girded loins indeed.

Posted by: Twinks at April 13, 2009 02:37 PM (+2eXr)

47 Toby, Monty,

Very recent news about Israeli anti-missile tech for India

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 02:40 PM (PGSXB)

48 The more I think about it the more I think we might have elected the wrong guy President.

Is anyone else here coming around to this as well?

Posted by: Tommy V at April 13, 2009 02:42 PM (/PwQS)

49 Tushar:

Yeah, I knew about the Israeli work with India on ABM systems. It's sort of the flavor-of-the-month with many nations now that the US has proven the basic viability of the concept. Good radars and fast computer chips have really improved the effectiveness of the various systems, too. Still, I'd see any real fruit of the India/Israel thing being many years away. It takes a lot of infrastructure and training to do that kind of thing right, and India doesn't have the best record in terms of rolling out new weapons systems.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 02:44 PM (/0a60)

50 Monty,
you are right. But India has been working on it for a while now. India has been working on a solution involving Israel's Green Pine radar and some Russian missiles coupled with a homegrown command-&-control and guidance system. But I am uneasy with their system integration skills.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 02:57 PM (PGSXB)

51 Monty,

When President Bush pressured Pakistan to take a more active role against terrorists hiding in NWFP, Pakistan felt that it was vulnerable on the Indian border. US was also concerned about Paki nukes falling in wrong hands. There were rumors that US managed to gain some control over Paki nukes, and gave an assurance that India will not attack them. India agreed readily, because it never had any intentions of invading them.

I hope those rumors had some truth in them.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 03:03 PM (PGSXB)

52 Tushar: India's problem isn't the weapons themselves. It's the dysfunctional Indian procurement and training systems. The Indians tried to develop their own cruise missile -- the BrahMos -- and it took decades to get it more-or-less right, cost billions, and probably will never perform up to competing systems like the Tomahawk. The sub-launched Sagerika is in the same class -- decent, but years late and not as effective as competing solutions. Same goes for India's "home grown" MiG-29 clone. For some reason, the Indian defense establishment just can't get it together on R&D of weapons systems, and this has serious repurcussions in terms of weapons integration and training down the line.

And the Russians have been shafting India for a long time. Just look at the ass-raping they're giving India over the aircraft carrier INS Vikramaditya. The Russians screwed up the refit to the tune of about two billion dollars, but want the Indians to pay for the screw-up. The Indians said no dice, but then said they' pay part of it. And so it goes.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 03:06 PM (/0a60)

53 June 23, 2009 14:10 Universal Time
--Taliban and AlQaeda forces announce the fall of Islamabad.

June 23, 2009 14:25 Universal Time
--Taliban and AlQaeda forces, along with Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, disappear in bright flash. Curry is smelled nationwide.

June 24, 2009 00:11 Universal Time
--Indian engineers open dams in "Operation Toilet Bowl". Free hats for the first 500 kids.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at April 13, 2009 03:17 PM (5aa4z)

54 Should we also be worried about Thailand melting down right now?

If you rub them together vigorously...

Posted by: lmg at April 13, 2009 03:17 PM (A/vgC)

55 Monty,

the problem is that India is trying to build a modern jet fighter without going through the long process US and Russia went through. F-35 and F-22 benefited from lessons learned on F-15 and F-16. Every time the fighter is delayed, and new developments happen elsewhere (AESA, HUD, whatever), they want to incorporate that into the plane, delaying it further. Same goes for other systems.

However, Indian systems need not be the very best. We will have to use them against Pakistan and maybe China. We don't have to worry about building systems that can go against US.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 03:25 PM (PGSXB)

56 >>Should we also be worried about Thailand melting down right now?

what is the very definition of carnal bliss?
-Bangkok in Thailand.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 03:27 PM (PGSXB)

Isn't Obama's new dog an Afpak? I think he's naming it "Waterhead".

Posted by: andycanuck at April 13, 2009 03:28 PM (vulJH)

58 Tushar:

We don't have to worry about building systems that can go against US.

That's not really the problem. The problem is within India's procurement system. This problem has been ignored and papered over for so long by so many Indian governments that it's institutionalized now. India has gotten away with this for a long time because the last war with Pakistan was way back in 1971. India really hasn't been seriously tested militarily since then. The Indians have fallen into a common trap that the US fell into for a long time: that weapons systems in and of themselves were sufficient.

But as the US discovered, logistics and training are at least as important (if not more so) than the number and quality of the weapons. Take Iraq: the US Army could have traded weapons systems straight across with the enemy and still won handily. Why? The main advantage was in software -- in the minds and training of the troops who fight, and in the logistics systems that support them.

In India's case, consider their main battle tank, the T80 variant. It's a very capable battle-tank. But the Indians have no way to rush tanks forward to hot spots, and no way to rush fuel to them once they are there. Indians have fighter jets, but comparatively few cargo planes, tankers, AWACS birds, and recon planes. They have attack helicopters, but relatively few cargo helicopters. You see what I mean? It's all spear-point and no haft. And the endemic corruption in the Indian defense industry doesn't help because it introduces quality and supply problems into otherwise-robust weapons systems.

India is more than a match for Pakistan, but they'd struggle against a more well-equipped enemy.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 03:36 PM (/0a60)

59 Very recent news about Israeli anti-missile tech for India

Ah, very good. I think that Israel is going to survive by forming an invisible alliance with those nominal allies that Obama intends to sacrifice.

Posted by: andros schwarzenegger at April 13, 2009 03:44 PM (PD1tk)

60 dammit

Posted by: toby928 at April 13, 2009 03:44 PM (PD1tk)

61 Does India have thermonuclear weapons (H-bombs) or just nuclear weapons? How about Pakistan? Any idea about yields?

Posted by: lmg at April 13, 2009 03:45 PM (A/vgC)

62 54 Should we also be worried about Thailand melting down right now?

If you rub them together vigorously

Imagine San Francisco being flooded with Thai Ladyboy refugees

http://tinyurl.com/d7ngy9

Posted by: Teechers Yoonyin Boss at April 13, 2009 03:49 PM (miw86)

63 Hey! That's my maid!

Posted by: Andi Sullivan at April 13, 2009 03:50 PM (miw86)

64 Does India have thermonuclear weapons (H-bombs) or just nuclear weapons? How about Pakistan? Any idea about yields?

India probably has a "boosted fission" weapon (a fission weapon with a mechanism to squirt tritium into the core to boost the yield). The Paks probably rely on a simpler fission design, much like the "Fat Man" weapon used against Nagasaki in World War II.

The Indians' design is probably capable of 50-100KT, and is capable of being delivered on a ballistic missile. The Indians may have refined the basic design to achieve 300KT+ theoretical yields, but they've never tested those designs. 150KT is probably the highest actual yield they'd be able to achieve.

The Pak design is probably more rudimentary: straight fission, probably with an 30-40KT nominal yield. I haven't heard many opinions as to whether the Paks can deliver the high-yield weapon via missle, though. I doubt it. They probably have a variant that will fit on a missle that will deliver a 10KT yield or thereabouts -- Hiroshima-sized.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 03:54 PM (/0a60)

65 Damn, will the distractions never cease?

Posted by: adolfo_velasquez at April 13, 2009 03:54 PM (wkWJn)

66 >>India is more than a match for Pakistan, but they'd struggle against a more well-equipped enemy.

Monty, pretty much the only other enemy is China. The Himalayas ensure that there won't ever be a full land war against China. It would be mostly missiles, a few bomber sorties and some open seas action.

And India doesn't need a logistical tail as long and effective as US, unless we decide to get involved in the Middle East or Africa.

But I accept your point about general procurement issues.

Posted by: Tushar at April 13, 2009 04:07 PM (PGSXB)

Where will the money come from to fight this new war? We're broke - remember?

I mean - it's not like we thought any of this shit might happen - or we'd have throttled back on all this porkulus. Damn these islamo-fascists - hitting us with this when we couldn't have expected it! Our pants are down!

I hope they will wait a bit until we can get Nationalized Health Care into place.

Maybe if we just talk to them nicely?

Posted by: HondaV65 at April 13, 2009 04:12 PM (8NiWI)

68 Tushar:

The Hindu Kush isn't the barrier it once was. The days when armies had to move by pack-donkeys and sandal-shod feet are long gone. Even the era of mechanized warfare is passing. Look at the havoc a few teenage gunmen raised in Mumbai last year!

The American military spent decades training to fight the Soviet Union, and ended up fighting our largest conventional battles since World War II against a third-world despot and a bunch of religious zealots. The war you end up fighting is almost never the one you thought you were going to be fighting. India won't be fighting China or the United States; that's not the danger. They might not even be fighting Pakistan, per se. But what happens if the ISI somehow gets off a shot at India without the civilian government being aware of it? What if they give Kashmiri separatists the ability to do it? Who will India blame? What will their response be? What if a homegrown Indian Muslim group does it?

This is why I keep saying that the old Westphalian notion of nation-vs-nation warfare is over. Every major engagement from now on is going to be shitty idecisive police-action stuff, unless NBC weapons come into the picture. If NBC weapons are employed and large numbers of civilian casualties result, then all bets are off.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 04:13 PM (/0a60)

69 The Pak design is probably more rudimentary: straight fission, probably with an 30-40KT nominal yield. I haven't heard many opinions as to whether the Paks can deliver the high-yield weapon via missle, though. I doubt it. They probably have a variant that will fit on a missle that will deliver a 10KT yield or thereabouts -- Hiroshima-sized.

Since the Hiroshima firecracker killed 100K people outright and several thousand more due to radiation sickness and later cancers, that's a lot of people going off to their Nirvana or their 72 Virgins

Posted by: kbdabear at April 13, 2009 04:18 PM (miw86)

Monty old chap - you are obviously a most a studied military officer. I was but a lowly Master Chief so your knowledge kills mine. However, what about a "Goon Rush" - I think all the bad guys are conspiring. What would happen if we awoke tomorrow and found China had gone into Taiwan, Russia had moved to retake it's former satellites, Nork's were invading the Souk's, and Iran was launching a nuke at Israel.

And if I were on the other side - that is exactly the way I would do this because I don't think Europe nor the US has the gumption to stop something like that.

Or am I just being simplistic and naive here? Dunno - I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed!

Posted by: HondaV65 at April 13, 2009 04:19 PM (8NiWI)

71 kdbabear:

Since the Hiroshima firecracker killed 100K people outright and several thousand more due to radiation sickness and later cancers, that's a lot of people going off to their Nirvana or their 72 Virgins

The casualties would probably be worse than in Hiroshima or Nagasaki because the population density is far higher. An airburst over a crowded city like Karachi, Islamabad, or Mumbai would probably kill 100K-200K people outright, and maybe as many as half a million. And that's just a single strike.

Would the Paks or Indians go after population centers (countervalue) or military installations (counterforce)? I think the Paks have planned all along for a countervalue strike; they don't have the delivery system or strategic depth to go counterforce. And the Indians, since they have abrogated any first-strike option, would be in no mood to go easy on the Paks after a nuclear strike, so they'd go countervalue as well.

I'm not sure what the total death toll would be in a Pak/Indian nuclear exchange, but it would almost certainly be in the millions.

Posted by: Monty at April 13, 2009 04:24 PM (/0a60)

"If NBC weapons are employed and large numbers of civilian casualties result, then all bets are off."

Launch the Maddow-II Rocket!

Posted by: reason at April 13, 2009 04:32 PM (F26eZ)

73 I don't think the muzzie nutbars in Pakland have enough gumption to be able to take over the military let alone the whole country. If everything goes to shit, I'd expect the Pakistani military to take over ala Musharraf.

Posted by: Blackbeard's Host at April 13, 2009 04:54 PM (iaWNX)

Ya'll seemed to have forgotten from the campaign that Obama promised to invade POKistan to capture Al Queda. That he wasn't going to be a sissy about it like McCain.

Posted by: Ken at April 13, 2009 05:00 PM (vgyJ5)

75 74

Ya'll seemed to have forgotten from the campaign that Obama promised to invade POKistan to capture Al Queda. That he wasn't going to be a sissy about it like McCain.

Posted by: Ken at April 13, 2009 05:00 PM (vgyJ5)

^^No one's forgotten - we're just not sure he'll live up to it. He made a LOT of promises that he's already broken.

Posted by: HondaV65 at April 13, 2009 05:04 PM (8X9tr)

76 #30 That's what Webster Tarpley says.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at April 13, 2009 05:13 PM (ppbCV)

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Posted by: Smokey Behr at April 13, 2009 05:25 PM (QyeW7)

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Posted by: toby928 at April 13, 2009 05:25 PM (PD1tk)

Thirty-five devices of one-megaton each, that's five or six ICBMs last I heard. Should sterilize a region pretty thoroughly. A followup strike of 10 to 20 more warheads should fill in the spots between the glass if we see any movement.

Sure, it would be cruel. Sure, it would drive the far leftists to insanity and beyond. But it would work and I'm way past wringing my hands about anyone outside our goddamned borders saying shit.

Anti-Americanism is a hatred directed at one People. Like any publicly voiced distaste of a group, it is inevitable that the sentiments be returned. The world hates America? The world can fucking burn.

Posted by: Inspector Asshole at April 13, 2009 05:26 PM (EnNiL)

Of course, President Obama's not going to do the correct and most effective thing.

So vote for me come 2012. I'll exterminate the fucking world. I goddamned promise.

Posted by: Inspector Asshole at April 13, 2009 05:29 PM (EnNiL)

81 Pipe down, Otis!

Posted by: Barack P. Fife at April 13, 2009 05:35 PM (7dXKM)

The country with the most to lose if Pakistan goes rogue is India. The Pakis are much more likely to nuke India than they are to try to land a Jihad-1 icbm into Europe or the US, are they not?

As precisely as possible, can a nuke dude (or dudette if god forbid any women read Ace's blog) tell us how many nukes Pakistan has, & what is their effective range and tonnage?

Posted by: mike d at April 13, 2009 05:49 PM (91OXS)

Is it more helpful or less helpful to have the NW frontier officially part of Pakistan? Pakistan doesn't control it and officially they have their own law now. Doesn't it makes sense to recognize the area as its own country and make it subject to retaliation for misdeeds? How many more attacks now will have to be tolerated from this area, which won't be subject to strikes because its Pakistan (even though it really shoudn't be considered that).

Its not Pakistan when they attack from that area, but you can't attack back because then it's considered Pakistan.

There needs to be a new doctrine that the NW frontier will not be considered part of Pakistan until the area cedes all control to Pakistan and agrees to be governed by Pakistan. Then if it harbors AQ or camps, etc., bomb the crap of New Talibanistan with no apologies necessary to Pakistan since it isn't their country anymore.

Posted by: Prindle at April 13, 2009 05:53 PM (2Ynt1)

84 Interesting

Iranian sources report two key developments in the standoff over Iran's nuclear drive: Tehran effectively rejected the latest offer by the five UN Security Council permanent members plus Germany of nuclear negotiations with direct US involvement. This shut the door on US president Barack Obama's first diplomatic gambit for direct dialogue with Tehran. Sunday, Israeli President Shimon Peres told an Israeli radio interviewer that if President Barack Obama's diplomatic efforts to prevent Iran from going nuclear failed, "We'll strike him."

Posted by: Blazer at April 13, 2009 05:55 PM (+FzLa)

85 As precisely as possible, can a nuke dude (or dudette if god forbid any women read Ace's blog) tell us how many nukes Pakistan has, & what is their effective range and tonnage?

Paki Nukes

Paki Missiles

.

Posted by: Blazer at April 13, 2009 06:02 PM (+FzLa)

86 But don't worry. If Pakistan falls and nukes end up in the hands of the peace loving amish, Joe The Sherrif and Hillary the brave snipper fire survivor will be all over it--cause no one messes with Joe! Besides, is it really nececessary to disrupt President Ogabe much needed beauty sleep? He will be fully briefed and updated as the situation unfolds. Now stop worrying about yet another distraction and lets get back to the important things like skittle farting unicorns for all.

Posted by: runningrn at April 13, 2009 06:06 PM (aC/SY)

87 Guy's........can I please finish my waffle ?

Posted by: Barack Obama at April 13, 2009 06:09 PM (+FzLa)

88 Now, now, let's look at things from a Liberal point of view: why shouldn't Pakistan have the right to collapse and have its nukes fall into terrorist hands???

Answer me that!!

Posted by: CoolCzech at April 13, 2009 06:09 PM (iafWn)

Blazer, of course women read this blog, we like the odds here.

Ha ha on all the Thailand answers by the way. I'm assuming the serious answer is that Thailand devolving into anarchy won't have much impact on us.

Posted by: ParanoidGirlInSeattle at April 13, 2009 06:09 PM (AJ4xq)

90 shoulda read some more comments...info on Paki nukes readily provided by fellow Morons. thanks.

Posted by: mike d at April 13, 2009 06:12 PM (91OXS)

91 June 24, 2009 00:11 Universal Time
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Posted by: wooga at April 13, 2009 06:26 PM (2p0e3)

@82: "The country with the most to lose if Pakistan goes rogue is India. The Pakis are much more likely to nuke India than they are to try to land a Jihad-1 icbm into Europe or the US, are they not?"

Why try to hit Europe or the US when soldiers from both are conveniently located right next door in Afghanistan?

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at April 13, 2009 06:33 PM (KSnlH)

93 140 million Muslims in India. A failed state or radicalised Pakistan would be a major problem that could threaten India if there was a spillover into the domestic Muslims in India.

I hope (but doubt) that Obama would at least order the US forces to seize the nuclear arsenal if Pakistan collapsed.

Posted by: Travis at April 13, 2009 06:58 PM (MHo9Q)

94 And the Indians would probably be in a launch-on-target-confirmation stance, which means that they'd launch their own missile(s) as soon as it became apparent than an Indian asset was targeted by the incoming missile (i.e., on rollover of the ballistic arc). And the Indians would have a much higher chance of a hit because: a) their missiles are better; and b) their warheads are better. This is why I think Pakistan would go all-out if the go nuclear. Just one nuke wouldn't do it, because the Paks know they'd get creamed in the counterbarrage. They'd fire their whole arsenal, chanting Allahu Akbar! the whole time. And about four minutes later, their entire country would be atomized in the Indian response.

Right,right, Monty, insofar as we know. But consider this if you will: Boost those nukes about 190-210 miles up and detonate them there and what do you get?
E M P...electro-magnetic pulse, which would quickly and totally fry the electrics and power grid of the targetted state. India needn't vaporize the Paks, just detonate some carefully aimed nukes over their territory.
But...they also stand to suffer extreme damage themselves in the aftermath of any 1st Strike scenario using EMP as the main weapon. They would need to have their assets hardened to EMP and have a good plan in place to cover things if the balloon went up and an EMP strike were their only choice to keep the Paks from sending birds in-bound. Also recognize that you don't need ballistic roll-over and boosting to reach either side of a Pak-Indi exchange, since they are in very close spatial relationship and a blast hitting one would most likely have EMP consequences for the other. Parasitic/symbiotic twins, if you want to look at them in such a manner...
All you need here for a prime shit sandwich is to decide what kind of bread to use: the Paks and the Indis already have the shit, hot and fueled for spreading.
Just some random thoughts. Losses in fullout exchange? 200-300 mil. There are 200 mil Pakis and 1.1-1.2 Billion Indis. That's alot of soylent green...

Posted by: enter sandman at April 13, 2009 08:01 PM (zxaA2)

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Posted by: joan at April 13, 2009 08:07 PM (kxWJ2)

96 After the first good blast, if there's enough damage, and there will be, tonnage of the strike becomes moot. What isn't killed or radiated to the point of becoming liquid stands a very good chance of being thrust back into the late 1800s in a flash. No cellies, no computers, no distant early warning, no radio comms: no guidance from above and no way to launch non hardened nukes after the EMP does its thing. And that will make that part of the world, already dark and miserable, even darker and more miserable. Not to mention the fact that those nuke assets that don't get into the air are going to be grounded where they are unless the Pakis and Indis have put alot more thought and money (rupees?) into hardening and anti-EMP protection than we have...and we haven't done squat about it up til now. Newt Gingrich is climbing out of his pants over the possibility of 1st strike EMP as an effective killer of technologically advanced cultures...and for once, the fat guy from Georgia may be right...just a random thought.

sandman.

Posted by: enter sandman at April 13, 2009 08:10 PM (zxaA2)

97 And of course, thrusting that kind of shithole territory backwards in time is very convenient for the Muslim Culture growing in the NW territories and the Stans, as well as the established house brands of crazy pre-dominant in the ME as a whole, as a "hole"?, these days anyway...Pakistan bombed back to the stone age sounds like just what the Pakis seem to want. These a-holes just want to spread the misery around as much as possible before the lights go out...that's my thinking about it...toss in Iran and maybe Israel and you've got a Biblical Epic in the making...And that never turns out good for anyone but the Israelites,now does it?

Just a random thought.

Sandman.

Posted by: enter sandman at April 13, 2009 08:16 PM (zxaA2)

A bailout for the land of white and blue cholera.Porkulus-naw no pork.

Until they solve their population bomb and stop believing the rantings of the divine child molesterer,Pakistan will fail.

Posted by: chicocano at April 13, 2009 08:25 PM (P2bg4)

A bailout for the land of white and blue cholera.Porkulus-naw no pork.

Until they solve their population bomb and stop believing the rantings of the divine child molesterer,Pakistan will fail.

Posted by: chicocano at April 13, 2009 08:25 PM (P2bg4)

100

A bailout for the land of white and blue cholera.Porkulus-naw no pork.

Until they solve their population bomb and stop believing the rantings of the divine child molesterer,Pakistan will fail.

Posted by: chicocano at April 13, 2009 08:25 PM (P2bg4)

101 @94: "Losses in fullout exchange? 200-300 mil. There are 200 mil Pakis and 1.1-1.2 Billion Indis." Good Lord! 7-11 as we know it would be driven out of business! (Kidding...kidding)

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at April 13, 2009 08:36 PM (KSnlH)

102 @94: "Losses in fullout exchange? 200-300 mil. There are 200 mil Pakis and 1.1-1.2 Billion Indis." Good Lord! 7-11 as we know it would be driven out of business! (Kidding...kidding)

Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at April 13, 2009 08:36 PM (KSnlH)

103

@97: "Pakistan bombed back to the stone age"

So, we're looking at what to accomplish that? Two m-80s and a pack of Black Cats? Two hundred ladyfingers? Ten thousand Snap-Pops?

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Posted by: royalmewigs at April 13, 2009 09:08 PM (Njzfb)

105

It takes awhile for nukes to spool up for launch. We've got assets in that AO specifically to monitor such activity.

Any attempts to launch nukes from Pakistan will only result in Paki nukes destroyed at their launch sites.

Afghanistan can not be finished until the source of insurgency is destroyed, and that is Pakistan.

Posted by: Grimmy at April 13, 2009 09:45 PM (2KHk8)

106 What part of this do you not understand??? We don't bloody want it!!! You take Pakistan and its crappy inhabitants, they'll all fit into Queens, NYC.

Posted by: India at April 14, 2009 12:03 AM (P1A5m)

107 India and Pakistan go nuke to nuke. President pizza party could not be reached for comment.

Posted by: Ostral B Heretic at April 14, 2009 12:40 AM (bB2sB)

108 Hello?... Uh... Hello D- uh hello Dmitri? Listen uh uh I can't hear too well. Do you suppose you could turn the music down just a little?... Oh-ho, that's much better... yeah... huh... yes... Fine, I can hear you now, Dmitri... Clear and plain and coming through fine... I'm coming through fine, too, eh?... Good, then... well, then, as you say, we're both coming through fine... Good... Well, it's good that you're fine and... and I'm fine... I agree with you, it's great to be fine... a-ha-ha-ha-ha... Now then, Dmitri, you know how we've always talked about the possibility of something going wrong with the Bomb... The *Bomb*, Dmitri... The *hydrogen* bomb!... Well now, what happened is... ahm... one of our base commanders, he had a sort of... well, he went a little funny in the head... you know... just a little... funny. And, ah... he went and did a silly thing... Well, I'll tell you what he did. He ordered his planes... to attack your country... Ah... Well, let me finish, Dmitri... Let me finish, Dmitri... Well listen, how do you think I feel about it?... Can you *imagine* how I feel about it, Dmitri?... Why do you think I'm calling you? Just to say hello?... *Of course* I like to speak to you!... *Of course* I like to say hello!... Not now, but anytime, Dmitri. I'm just calling up to tell you something terrible has happened... It's a *friendly* call. Of course it's a friendly call... Listen, if it wasn't friendly... you probably wouldn't have even got it... They will *not* reach their targets for at least another hour... I am... I am positive, Dmitri... Listen, I've been all over this with your ambassador. It is not a trick... Well, I'll tell you. We'd like to give your air staff a complete run-down on the targets, the flight plans, and the defensive systems of the planes... Yes! I mean i-i-i-if we're unable to recall the planes, then... I'd say that, ah... well, ah... we're just gonna have to help you destroy them, Dmitri... I know they're our boys... All right, well listen now. Who should we call?... *Who* should we call, Dmitri? The... wha-whe, the People... you, sorry, you faded away there... The People's Central Air Defense Headquarters... Where is that, Dmitri?... In Omsk... Right... Yes... Oh, you'll call them first, will you?... Uh-huh... Listen, do you happen to have the phone number on you, Dmitri?... Whe-ah, what? I see, just ask for Omsk information... Ah-ah-eh-uhm-hm... I'm sorry, too, Dmitri... I'm very sorry... *All right*, you're sorrier than I am, but I am as sorry as well... I am as sorry as you are, Dmitri! Don't say that you're more sorry than I am, because I'm capable of being just as sorry as you are... So we're both sorry, all right?... All right.

(This used to be funny. Now I wonder if it's just prescient.)

Posted by: President Merkin Muffley at April 14, 2009 06:40 AM (MMC8r)

109 Have we dispatched Jimmy "Obama's Muscle" Carter to Pawkeestawn yet? It's not a -real- emergency until Jimmy get's involved.

Posted by: DngrMse at April 14, 2009 09:26 AM (z4ycv)

110 Sorry bout the 3 postings-had to clean out computer.Watch what u download on left wing sites.Rabble rousing=debugging and firewall.

Posted by: chicocano at April 14, 2009 01:53 PM (P2bg4)

111 Excuse me. I think it is good that books still exist, but they do make me sleepy.
I am from Lebanon and learning to speak English, give please true I wrote the following sentence: "You can always try yahoo people search people."

Thanks

. Zsa zsa.

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