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Krauthammer's Take on Obama's Russia Letter
Vid: Bolton's Mustache of Righteous Fury Responds

flowerdiplomat.jpg

Yup:

This is smart diplomacy? This is a debacle. The Russians dismissed it contemptuously.

Look, if we could get the Iranian nuclear program stopped with Russian's helping us in return for selling out the Poles and the Czechs on missile defense, I'm enough of a cynic and a realist to say we would do it the same way that Kissinger agreed to delegitimize and de-recognize Taiwan in return for a large strategic opening with China.

But Kissinger had it done. He had it wired. What happened here is it was leaked. The Russians have dismissed it. We end up being humiliated. We look weak in front of the Iranians, and we have left the Poles and Czechs out to dry in return for nothing.

The Czechs and the Poles went out on a limb, exposed themselves to Russian pressure, and we have shown that Eastern Europe is not as sovereign as it appears if the Russian influence is there, and we will acquiesce in what they consider their own sphere of influence.

This administration has prided itself, flattered itself on deploying smart diplomacy. "Smart diplomacy" is a meaningless idea, but if it has any meaning at all, it is not ever doing something as humiliating, amateurish, and stupid as this.

Dave @ Garfield Ridge emails:

Realpolitik is a great thing, when it works. But here's the deal: the Bush Administration, favoring missile defense in Eastern Europe, *might* have been able to work out this trade with Russia. Hell, I even argued for a stab at this, figuring it couldn't hurt to try.

But the Obama Administration was against missile defense in Eastern Europe-- everybody knows that, including Russia. Why would Russia give Obama anything in return for Obama giving up something that he was always going to give up?

Indeed. And I think the letter indicates that Obama wants any old diplomatic excuse to end missile defense in Europe. He won't do so "unilaterally," as he doesn't have the balls to do so. Instead, he'll keep offering the Russians a "deal" on the missiles until they agree to do something intangible, and then he can come back to the public and say "Look at what a great deal I got, in exchange for nothing but expensive missiles we weren't going to use anyway."

Really minor. And the Russians know that. They know Obama's game -- he doesn't want to get anything from the Russians for America; he just wants to get some political cover for himself.

So the Russians will object until Obama's request is so trivial that it's an entirely free transaction for them.

And Obama gets what he wants -- exchanging missile defense for a meaningless piece of paper, but a meaningless piece of paper he, and his media Spirit Squad, can call some sort of "breakthrough."

And meanwhile most of Russia's conscripts will be Muslim by... 2015. Fifteen, not fifty.

Bolton... on Hannity's show.

P'shop: by Slublog.

Posted by: Ace at 11:50 AM



Comments

1 The most serious fear is that Obama will share this shield technology with the Russians, who would sell it to China and everyone else.

That's the real fear.

Posted by: shill at March 04, 2009 11:53 AM (8jYMc)

2
Looks like Hillary needs to take her seat under the bus. Clearly. she is an expendable scapegoat

Posted by: whadya gotta do to get a unicorn around here at March 04, 2009 11:59 AM (Y5TM9)

3 I wonder if Ahmadinajad has a rug with Obama's picture on it where he keeps his shoes.

Posted by: Roy at March 04, 2009 11:59 AM (cB77O)

4 The Bear doesn't haggle.

Nostrovia,

V. Putin.

Posted by: Vladimir Putin at March 04, 2009 12:00 PM (zjgCD)

5 Jimmy Carter all over again.

Posted by: Uniball at March 04, 2009 12:02 PM (27iEn)

6 Gee most of the conscripts will be muslim in 10 years, who do you think they will attack first, Russia itself or Eastern Europe or Russia's near abroad?

Posted by: eaglewingz08 at March 04, 2009 12:02 PM (RdRrk)

7 In the end, there will be only chaos!

Posted by: Kratos (on the back of Gaia, scaling Mt Olympus) at March 04, 2009 12:03 PM (9hSKh)

8

#6

I'd look for a target a bit south.

Say, Israel?  African countries not yet totally swayed into Islamic governments?

Posted by: mitthrawnurdo at March 04, 2009 12:04 PM (9hSKh)

9 Exactly.  If Nixon goes to China, you get something of value.  If Carter goes, you give up something valuable AND get nothing (or less than nothing) in return.

It's almost as if Dear Leader is a rookie.  Imagine that!

Posted by: Harry Callahan at March 04, 2009 12:05 PM (fagDq)

10 Boring. The whole platform was to deviate from "cowboy diplomacy," so what we get is "roll over on my back and show my genitals". After all, sayeth Marx, in a zero-sum economy only the underdog has any moral rights.

Are the critics going to start going line by line showing the source in the little red book, or are they going to just bitch like Leftists about "strength" and "our economy"?

Posted by: Anonymous at March 04, 2009 12:05 PM (EtTEh)

11 Neville Chamberlain could pimp slap Barry around.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 04, 2009 12:05 PM (1Jaio)

12 The muslims will pursue their Russian masters first, establish an islamic Russian state and then look at Europe and say "Come here Bitch"

Posted by: Penfold at March 04, 2009 12:06 PM (lF2Kk)

13

Creating an Obama.  Take 1 part Karl Marx, add in two heaping cups of Neville Chamberlain, sprinkle Jimmy Carter over the mixture and cover with wrap made of Saul Alinsky.  It tastes like shit and isn't very filling but a large number of retards can't get enough.

Serves 350 million

Posted by: JackStraw at March 04, 2009 12:06 PM (VW9/y)

14

"roll over on my back and show my genitals".

Pussy diplomacy.

Posted by: huerfano at March 04, 2009 12:06 PM (knHvu)

15 Far, far scarier than anything on the economic front.

Posted by: cadetwithchips2 at March 04, 2009 12:07 PM (B6Fis)

16

oh, so the Russians want the technology, then they will say they will help us contain/control Iran?  the Russians will NOT help us (see WW2), yet Bambi will give them the technology?

Oh mercy, I hadn't thought of that  possibility.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at March 04, 2009 12:07 PM (g568/)

17 A part of me wants to believe that Obama was playing this on purpose. In one move he has screwed the US, Europe, Eastern Europe, Israel, and Iraq while strengthening Russia and Iran.

Another part of me thinks of that movie scene where Cleavon Little, threatened by a lynch mob, points a gun at his own head and says, "Nobody move or the black man gets it!"

Posted by: t-bird at March 04, 2009 12:08 PM (FcR7P)

18

If Russia's Army is majority Muslim......Wouldn't that make them more peaceful?

Posted by: Pelvis at March 04, 2009 12:08 PM (LlaBi)

19

All those words just to say Obama sux at diplomacy?

Ha!

Posted by: EC at March 04, 2009 12:09 PM (mAhn3)

20 Do you know what you'll see when you look into my eyes Barack? A guy who is going to kicking your ass up one side of the globe and down the other.

Welcome to the big leagues rookie, now sniff my jock.

Posted by: Vladimir Putin at March 04, 2009 12:11 PM (hlYel)

21 Pelvis at March 04, 2009 12:08 PM (LlaBi)

Muslim by heritage, maybe. There aren't many really religious muslims in Russia. USSR prety well stamped that out. You'll see vestiges of it - women wearing head scarves, islamic names, etc. But really muslim? Hardly.

Posted by: lorien1973 at March 04, 2009 12:11 PM (IhQuA)

22

If Russia's Army is majority Muslim......Wouldn't that make them more peaceful?

And less drunken.

Posted by: andycanuck at March 04, 2009 12:12 PM (TpHGM)

23 Russia only wants to use Islam.  How will  the radical Islamists feel about that 10 years from now? 

Posted by: kelley in virginia at March 04, 2009 12:13 PM (g568/)

24 Posted by: t-bird at March 04, 2009 12:08 PM (FcR7P)

The joke was that it was such a brilliant maneuver on his part. 

This is a really crappy version of Dave.

Or King Ralph.

Posted by: cadetwithchips2 at March 04, 2009 12:13 PM (B6Fis)

25 I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands: one Nation under God, indivisible, with a President who is the Russian President's bitch, and with Liberty and Justice for all.

Posted by: Michael at March 04, 2009 12:14 PM (siOQ7)

26 Serves Screws 350 million.

FTFY

Posted by: wiserbud at March 04, 2009 12:14 PM (IHbof)

27 Russia isn't going to fuck around in insubordinate Muslims in their military.  They know what they are dealing with.

europe has a shitload of muslims in its militaries.

I like that, since muslim terrorists are usually joining their little wacko cults because they are lonely crazy idiots. They need friends, so they commune with psychos.  Being in a western military has got to be a better place for them.

Posted by: shill at March 04, 2009 12:15 PM (8jYMc)

28 Another part of me thinks of that movie scene where Cleavon Little, threatened by a lynch mob, points a gun at his own head and says, "Nobody move or the black man gets it!"

Wait..... that doesn't sound quite right......  Are you sure that's the quote?


Posted by: wiserbud at March 04, 2009 12:15 PM (wWwJR)

29

Ronald Reagan scared the crap out of the Soviet Union with his 'star wars' initiative, even though back then it was barely even embryonic. The Soviets knew that there was no way they could compete with the West if the arms race went this way: they had neither the technical expertise nor the vast amounts of money to finance it. 'Star Wars' did a lot to bring down the USSR.

It was a colossally boneheaded move to offer up SDI to Russia, for the exact reasons that Krauthammer mentioned. First, it makes it clear to Poland and the Czech Republic that we'll throw them to the wolves; second, it makes it clear to Israel that we have no intention of taking military action to stop Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons; and last, it makes the Obama Administration look like a bunch of clueless chumps for not knowing how the Russians would take such an offer.

The thing about SDI is that, unlike the Reagan-era stuff, missile-defense now works. It's still under development, but it's technologically viable. Russia hates it for this exact reason: it can in time neutralize their own strategic missile threat. China likewise. It's not so much a matter of the short-term; SDI right now could only take out a few missiles -- plenty to put off Iran or Pakistan, but not nearly enough to negate the Russian or Chinese threat. But in time...ah, that's a different story. Once the feasibility of the system has been proved (which it has), then then rest is simply an engineering challenge.

I hope and pray that wiser heads prevail, because Europe is going to need a good missile-defense system -- and probably sooner rather than later.

 

Posted by: Monty at March 04, 2009 12:17 PM (/0a60)

30 So in the space of 48hrs the Obama team gets ignored by the Durbin II nuts, then punked by Putin, and then embarrasses the English PM.  This is after getting scolded by India a few weeks ago and pissing of Argentina and the rest of South America last week.

At least their doing great domestically.

Posted by: Jean at March 04, 2009 12:18 PM (L64A6)

31 Iraq was a huge Soviet and then Russian client state for over 30 years.  Now, Iran is. The Russian game is very... adaptive.  Gotta hand it to W, though. He changed the equation. And now Obama inherits it, doesn't understand it, and will lose the advantage. Nice pendulum there, dontcha think?

Posted by: Old Sailor at March 04, 2009 12:19 PM (/Ft4q)

32 Canada comes through again!

Posted by: Pelvis at March 04, 2009 12:19 PM (LlaBi)

33 He sent a letter without knowing the Russian response - he should have back channeled it thru Ayers.

Posted by: Jean at March 04, 2009 12:21 PM (L64A6)

34 Why make a deal when you can wait and get something for nothing? The ruthless will always roll the weak.

Posted by: bunny boy at March 04, 2009 12:21 PM (YsSn7)

35

Another part of me thinks of that movie scene where Cleavon Little, threatened by a lynch mob, points a gun at his own head and says, "Nobody move or the black man gets it!"

Wait..... that doesn't sound quite right......  Are you sure that's the quote?

 They probably watched it on TBS

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at March 04, 2009 12:23 PM (E6GUg)

36

OT:  AoS Lifestyle Video ALERT is here:

http://tinyurl.com/bd3gj4

 A team of Armalite .50 Cal, Combat-Bikini-Wearin, sniper, chicks, wearing Ace brand combat gloves (@ ~0:28 into the video) that you morons WILL enjoy. One says to the other: "Spot me from the rear" (giggles) "Looking GOOOOD!"

It is SFW. --Except for the .50 cal rounds xploding the targets? Nahhh: violence is OK for work!!

 

Posted by: JoeTee at March 04, 2009 12:23 PM (prdCq)

37 As always. Krauthammer makes a good point. To bad we are not in an age of reason. There is no point in making logical arguments.

Posted by: robtron12 at March 04, 2009 12:26 PM (gue+Q)

38 I read this morning that Obama has ordered all of our nuclear missles retargeted on America's newest enemy - the red states.

Posted by: Barack Obama Sr. at March 04, 2009 12:26 PM (ewXBY)

39 Yeah, pretty sure that's the quote from Blazing Saddles. Mind you, Mel Brooks was making a comedy. On purpose. Obama doesn't strike me as having a sense of humor. He might have missed the point.

Posted by: t-bird at March 04, 2009 12:27 PM (FcR7P)

40

The Bear doesn't haggle.

Sure they do - they'll silently stare at BO without blinking while he negotiates a better and better deal for them (and worse for us) then when they figure it's as good as it's gonna get they'll agree (without revealing their glee at the great deal they got) and then they'll haggle around the edges to make it even better.

Then, once it's all locked down and signed - they'll cheat every chance they get while looking for an excuse to avoid keeping their part of the bargain.

Posted by: payaso at March 04, 2009 12:29 PM (X4Gkz)

41 A castrated Jimmy Carter all over again.  FTFY

Posted by: MarkD at March 04, 2009 12:30 PM (MMy4A)

42 Monty,

Nobody really believes missile "defense" can neutralize a strategic missile threat.

Iran alone is supposed to have 10,000 conventional missiles able to hit Israel.

At best, missile "defense" is a Hail Mary attempt to bring down a solo missile shot from a rogue nation.

Posted by: andros at March 04, 2009 12:31 PM (k39jK)

43

Geez, the Messiah didn't learn much back in Chi. Blago would have back channeled the Ruskies a bundle of cash, some good Vodka, and a few high class hookers.

How do you say "go f*ck yourself" in Russian?

Posted by: Old Dad at March 04, 2009 12:31 PM (Gn3nw)

44 Dance tonight, tomorrow the revolution! For the Eastern bear is dancing in the charnel house of the West.

Posted by: destroynewgrenada at March 04, 2009 12:31 PM (+pR7Z)

45 Posted by: andros at March 04, 2009 12:31 PM (k39jK)

Fail.

Posted by: DrewM. at March 04, 2009 12:32 PM (hlYel)

46 Once again Obummer shows the world what he really thinks about America.

http://www.saveyourcountry.org

Posted by: John at March 04, 2009 12:33 PM (P0Klh)

47 So the Russians will object until Obama's request is so trivial that it's an entirely free transaction for them.

If I where Putin, I'd hold out until The One included a unicorn and a case of Yuengling in the deal.

Just saying.

Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at March 04, 2009 12:37 PM (1hM1d)

48 The real question is: If Iran nukes Israel, will Obama nuke Iran?  Or will we leave it up to the French?

Posted by: Old Sailor at March 04, 2009 12:38 PM (/Ft4q)

49 Nobody really believes missile "defense" can neutralize a strategic missile threat.

Exactly. Unless you have massive lasers in the air, on the ground, and (allowing for a portable nuclear plant) in space. Two out of three ain't bad.

Posted by: Anonymous at March 04, 2009 12:39 PM (EtTEh)

50 I said all this same stuff days ago. ut then again, everyone has been calling him an idiot for years.

Posted by: Vic at March 04, 2009 12:41 PM (f6os6)

51 I wish I had a mustache of righteous fury.

Posted by: kefka at March 04, 2009 12:43 PM (uTg5e)

52 Fail.
Posted by: DrewM. at March 04, 2009 12:32 PM (hlYel)

Why break a trend?

Posted by: Slublog at March 04, 2009 12:43 PM (qjKko)

53

Iraq was a huge Soviet and then Russian client state for over 30 years.  Now, Iran is.

Actually, Iran has been one of the key tipping points between the Soviets, now Russians and the west since WWII.  Iran was a key supplier of oil to the west during WWII and the Soviets and the allies put together Operation Countenance to secure the Iranian oil fields that were being jointly developed by the Brits and keep them out of the hands of the Nazis.  After the war was over, the Iranians wanted to renegotiate the deal they had signed decades earlier with the Brits to develop the fields (the begining of BP), the Brits refused, the Soviets started meddling and providing the insurgents with weapons, Churchill and a brand new US agency called the CIA took out the elected leader and installed the Shah.  Russia has been doing their damnedest to cause trouble for us there ever since and when Carter let Khomeini take out the Shah, the door was open for closer Russian ties.  The Russians are never going to help us with Iran. Iran fucking with the west is a feature for Russia, not a bug.

Barry is a moron.

Posted by: JackStraw at March 04, 2009 12:46 PM (VW9/y)

54 Has anyone ever made a good deal with the Russians?  Ever?

Posted by: SlaveDog at March 04, 2009 12:47 PM (H6Jyg)

55 Andros, are you adding the possibility of short range artillery rockets to the discussion?  Because Iran does not have thousands of Shabab-3 or any other missile with the range to hit Israel.

The threat is a small number of weapons that can reach Europe.  Again, from yesterday's thread, what is Vienna or Prague worth to us - what is Qom to a madman.

Posted by: Jean at March 04, 2009 12:47 PM (L64A6)

56 54, Alaska - we screwed'em

Posted by: Jean at March 04, 2009 12:48 PM (L64A6)

57 #48: If Iran nukes Israel, when the resolution condemning the action comes up for a vote in the UN, Obama will strongly object to the part of the resolution that says Israel totally deserved it.

Posted by: Brendan at March 04, 2009 12:49 PM (2jQGY)

58

More OT bunk material here:

http://girlsandguns.com/

Posted by: JoeTee at March 04, 2009 12:52 PM (prdCq)

59 Remember when the rookie Kennedy met with Khrushchev and Khrushchev thought Kennedy was so weak he could put missiles in Cuba?

Yeah, those are going to look like good times in comparison to what Obama's naivete (stupidity) is going to do to the U.S.

Posted by: mare at March 04, 2009 12:52 PM (X1fsj)

60 Obama will strongly object to the part of the resolution that says Israel totally deserved it.

Maybe.

Posted by: Present Obama at March 04, 2009 12:53 PM (wWwJR)

61 The crap on John Bolton's toilet paper is smarter and more informed than Obama. Tougher too.

Posted by: mare at March 04, 2009 12:54 PM (X1fsj)

62

At best, missile "defense" is a Hail Mary attempt to bring down a solo missile shot from a rogue nation.

Nope...you're thinking twenty years in the past. The Patriot PAC I and PAC II fell into this mold. (And the Israeli Jericho.)

The new stuff is far more advanced, and the missile interceptors are only part of it. There is a whole raft of jammers, spoofers, decoys, laser/maser interceptors, kinetic-energy drones, updated AEGIS radars...it goes on. It's not just one weapon or weapons system, but a whole network of stuff. That's what freaks the Russians out so badly -- it's defense-in-depth and has the potential to neutralize 90% of incoming ballistic threats. Even sub-launched stuff.

Further, "hail mary" is wrong. Modern interceptors are highly accurate and can be targeted very narrowly. That tells small states not to even try ballistic missile attacks and tells big ones like Russia that only massive attacks will get past the defenses -- at the risk of massive retaliation in return.

 

Posted by: Monty at March 04, 2009 12:54 PM (/0a60)

63 Make no mistake, if Israel was nuked, the resolution condemning it would say 'We condemn the violence on both sides'.

Posted by: shill at March 04, 2009 12:54 PM (8jYMc)

64 WOLVERINES!

Good God, I'm ashamed at you Morons that I was the first to say it. 

Posted by: alexthechick at March 04, 2009 12:59 PM (SHHaV)

65

OT -- the libtards are swamping Rush today.

And it sounds organized.

Posted by: Tinian at March 04, 2009 01:00 PM (Ohodx)

66 Thing is, our missile shield is an excellent deterrent against Russia.  It's kinda complex, but the end point is that Russia has to use more missiles to guarantee each target's destruction than we'd have to use against them.  Combine that with Russian quality levels and you have a lot of US cities that are saved because the Russians cannot target them at all.

Obviously, cancer and all that... but Russia is correct to note that is at a disadvantage in nuclear weapons.  they want this technology badly.

Posted by: shill at March 04, 2009 01:05 PM (8jYMc)

67

Russia is correct to note that is at a disadvantage in nuclear weapons

The thing about ballistic-missile defense is that it tends to prevent large, decapitating first-strike scenarios. One major concern that people have with an Iranian nuclear weapon is that they might use it as a countervalue rather than a counterforce weapon: that they might explode it in the atmosphere above the US and cause huge damage via EMP effects. Iran knows they'd only get one shot at this, and hope to Allah that it would be disruptive enough to prevent the enraged Americans or Israelis from turning Tehran into a lake of fused glass. Or that Iran might even be willing to make that trade to advance some "coming of the Mahdi" armageddon scenario.

The Russians are a different case. They know as well as anyone that as a conventional military power, they are finished. They are strong enough to protect themselves, and can project power a small distance against far weaker nations (like Belarus), but they wouldn't stand a chance against a modern Western army on anything like equal terms. Their only ace in the hole is their ballistic nuclear deterrent -- this is their only way of projecting leverage at the international level. Without a legitimate nuclear threat, Russia is essentially just a third-world basket-case. (Even with a nuclear deterrent, Russia is more like Pakistan than a real functioning nation-state.)

Countries with a nuclear deterrent based around ballistic missiles will in very short order be faced with a "use it or lose it" proposition. The Russians, whatever else you can say about them, are not completely insane, so they'll bow to the inevitable. With Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan...I'm not so sure.

 

Posted by: Monty at March 04, 2009 01:19 PM (/0a60)

68 andros,,,,,,,,, What, are you 12 fucking yrs. old ?

Posted by: aubrey at March 04, 2009 01:20 PM (U1Lxs)

69

This Russia kerfuffle once again highlighted to me how little of the real information is getting to most Americans (the ones too lazy to do more than passively consume xNBC, CNN, and other mainstream media). People I've talked to yesterday and today know nothing about Russia punking Obama, they also do not know about the Ukraine stopping withdrawals from banks.

I wonder if it is better to know or not know, I mean the shit is going to hit the fan anyway, is it better to see it coming and maybe have a slim chance of ducking or is it better to go along blindly and happily until a big ball of poop smacks you upside the head?

Posted by: ParanoidInSeattle at March 04, 2009 01:28 PM (AJ4xq)

70 Did you ever notice that the people who love diplomacy most are the ones that are the worst at practicing it?

Even if you disagree with Bush's foreign policy, he didn't go around making pointless diplomatic blunders.  If he had diplomacy problems, it was only because people opposed the actual policy.

It's like Obama is saying "bad doggie" and not bothering to reach for the sticks.

Posted by: AmishDude at March 04, 2009 01:33 PM (T0NGe)

71 As currently designed, the US antimissile defense cannot stop a major attack from Russia. We've got a whopping 10 interceptors vs. about 500 silos.

But that isn't the point. We have our own counter to that, Mutual Assured Destruction.

Current missile defense is to protect against a limited threat from a nation like North Korea, or Iran, who might decide that lobbing one missile is enough. Or even China, who has a very limited ICBM force. Without BMD, if the Norks or the Iranians have a single ICBM, they hold us at risk, and can do whatever they hell they want with no fear of our interfering with them. With BMD, we've essentially negated their threat.

Posted by: Commodore Perry at March 04, 2009 01:36 PM (vNnEF)

72 Damn sockpuppet. 71 was me.

Posted by: XBradTC at March 04, 2009 01:36 PM (vNnEF)

73 And think of all of the money we will save by not being at war with Russia for the next 100 years.  Why...It could be trillions!

Posted by: Kae Gregory at March 04, 2009 01:42 PM (RkRxq)

74 At best, missile "defense" is a Hail Mary attempt to bring down a solo missile shot from a rogue nation.

As others have pointed out, BMD introduces uncertainty, even in a massive first strike.  The enemy, Russia in this case, doesn't know which of its targets will survive to retailiate.

Andros has apparently embraced the roll of AoS auto-troll.  Whatever makes sense to the right, has to be wrong, whether he knows anything about the subject or not.

On the plus side, his provincial thinking will provide much mirth.

Posted by: the angel of death in a funny hat at March 04, 2009 01:46 PM (PD1tk)

75

Commodore Perry:

The whole "massive first strike" scenario was never all that likely. Even during the hottest part of the Cold War, most of the Soviet Union's missile fleet consisted of balky and hard-to-fuel SS18s -- they'd essentially have had to fire every one in their inventory, and have a malfunction rate of less than 20% for the attack to come off. And since this was pure fantasy -- the reliability of the rockets was very bad, and the USSR was always too paranoid about a massive response to commit the entire arsenal up front -- most serious US planners never gave it much mental effort.

It turns out that ballistic missiles as delivery systems really aren't that good. The rockets themselves are balky and unreliable (even the modern solid-fueled variants), and the engineering required to place a powerful-enough warhead in the tiny payload area is very complex and hard to test. The large numbers of nuclear missiles in both US and Soviet inventories until the 1980's reflected this reality. Missiles ultimately are not "weapons of decision" -- previously because they were expensive and unreliable, and now because they can be effectively countered.

The US has actually relearned the fine art of small-scale demolition. Bombing, not to put too fine a point on it. A small, accurate bomb is much better than a large inaccurate one for many reasons: it causes less collateral damage, is cheaper to build and easier to test, and more missions can be carried out per sortie. All the support systems are smaller too: instead of huge B52 bombers carrying hundreds of iron bombs, you can send in an F15 or F22 with ten or fifteen SDBs or glide-bombs and get the same amount of work done. Cruise missiles can be placed in a three-meter circle from a thousand miles off, flying well below radar and too fast for antiaircraft defenses.

Ballistic missiles are old-school, but they remain the only technology for more backward countries like Iran to project power beyond their own borders. Once the technology to counter ballistic missiles becomes cheap and easy to get, the day of the ballistic missile as a strategic weapons system will truly be over. We may see this day come in the next decade or two.*

*Consider the Russian SCUD and it's many derivatives. Back in the 1960's when it was first produced, it was considered a fearsome weapon. Now, it's mostly considered a nuisance.

 

Posted by: Monty at March 04, 2009 01:51 PM (/0a60)

76 Brad, I'm going start keeping a list of your sockpuppets.

Posted by: Jean at March 04, 2009 02:17 PM (L64A6)

77 I don't sockpuppet much, Jean, and I'll probably never use that again.

Monty,

The poor reliability of the Soviet ICBM force actually argued more for first use than as a counterstrike force. It was a use-it-or-lose-it scenario. And back in the good old days of 1000 launchers, 80% reliability was good enough. If it wasn't, the answer was simple. Just build more SS-18s. And we are a long, long way from having a viable defense against a mass attack. A ballistic missile is a hell of a lot simpler to field than an interceptor. It's the classic armor vs. warhead problem. How many warheads can we allow to penetrate and still call the system effective? One? One hundred? Either way, it would be a phyrric victory. It is almost always easier to increase the warhead than increase the armor. That's why the sub based second strike was so key. It held a vaible threat that no first strike would go unanswered. Of course, when you discuss nuclear strategy in terms of the Cold War Era, you are pretty much getting into metaphysics. It is an almost surreal discussion.

As to current national BMD, as I said, the stated goal is to protect against a limited strike from either an accidental launch, or a rouge nation such as Iran. I think we have a very viable program for that. Theatre BMD against SCUD type threats is even further along, with Aegis, THAAD and Patriot PAC-3. I think this is the most likely to be used, and it does go a long way to rendering the SCUD threat marginal.

Will we ever achieve a realistic shield against a mass attack? Maybe, but not in 10-20 years. And we sure won't be able to sheild Europe if Barry gets his way. He's put the European BMD on the table in a stunningly stupid way, giving Russia what they want. And even if Russia were to actaully try to inhibit the Iranian program, there's no guarantee they could realisticly prevent them from pursuing their goal of an effective nuclear IRBM/ICBM force. Iran has made that an overriding national priority, and are willing to sacrifice damn near anything to get it.

Posted by: XBradTC at March 04, 2009 02:39 PM (vNnEF)

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Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 04, 2009 02:50 PM (PQY7w)

79 You know what is kind of funny?  You RARELY hear any kind of lefty retort to anything the Krauthammer says.  The man is so clear and rational it is impossible to disagree with him.

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Instead, he'll keep offering the Russians a "deal" on the missiles until they agree to do something intangible, and then he can come back to the public and say "Look at what a great deal I got, in exchange for nothing but expensive missiles we weren't going to use anyway."

Like the Cuban Missile Crisis played backwards.

Posted by: Gordon at March 04, 2009 03:04 PM (AZegj)

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March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps said Israeli nuclear sites are within the range of its missiles and warned that the Persian Gulf country will defend itself in the eventuality of military strikes.

“All of the facilities in different areas of the land occupied by the Zionist regimes are within reach of Iran’s missile defenses,” the Corps’ head, Mohammad Ali Jafari, was quoted as saying by the state-run Iranian Students News Agency.

 

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Posted by: TheQuietMan at March 04, 2009 03:22 PM (1Jaio)

86 Monty,

If there was such a thing as effective missile defense, it would be in use now to defend Sderot and Ashkelon from Palestinian attacks.

The only thing missile defense is effective at is moving money from American taxpayer's pockets to happy talk defense contractors.

As it stands now, missile defense is the costliest "thing" in the federal budget.

Posted by: andros at March 04, 2009 04:02 PM (k39jK)

87

andros,

The piddling little bottle-rockets that the Palis are lobbing at the Israelis aren't, statistically, the kind of threat you'd use ABM technology for. In statistical terms, the specific threat is very low -- no help to the poor 1% who are injured or killed, but the best countermeasures are counter-insurgent and counter-terrorist actions in Gaza, not phalanxes of interceptor lasers. Kassams are more properly classed as tactical artillery barrages rather than strategic strikes (and piss-poor ones at that). The Israelis took exactly the right countermeasure in their attack on Gaza.

As it stands now, missile defense is the costliest "thing" in the federal budget.

This statement is so ludicrously off-base that it's not even merely wrong. It enters a class of fractal ridiculousness that I'd need a chart, an easel, and colored markers to diagram properly. Suffice it to say, you really ought to try not to embarass yourself in this way lest people think you retarded.

By the way, the costliest "thing" in the federal budget is Medicare, closely followed by Social Security. Defense spending, if lumped together as one line-item, might be larger. However, the true costs of both Medicare and Social Security are habitually understated, and are more than likely both larger than Defense spending by a good amount. And that's not even taking into account the unfunded time-bombs latent in public-sector pensions, which are almost certain to amount to two or three trillion dollars of unacknowledged liability.

 

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Posted by: Vladimir Putin at March 04, 2009 04:40 PM (TBwnU)

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Posted by: former mayor of wasilla at March 04, 2009 04:47 PM (4uQmv)

90 "Russia hates it for this exact reason: it can in time neutralize their own strategic missile threat."

Like that's so totally wrong- the big Naught said in his press conference with Brown that the BMDs for Poland and Czechoslovakia were in response to Iran.

Yes, he seriously said that.

Posted by: buster mcDissenter at March 04, 2009 04:52 PM (4ezUN)

91 Just think of all the nations that "love" us now!

Of course, The One had better not count on making any long-range plans with other nations.  These other countries now know what it means when 'Bama says "Dude, I've got your back".

Posted by: GarandFan at March 04, 2009 05:04 PM (237hA)

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Posted by: Entropy at March 04, 2009 05:04 PM (m6c4H)

93

Palestinian rockets that go 200 yards = Ballistic missiles.

Yes.

If Pallie's had rockets that went into low orbit, the next one they shot at Israel will hit fricken Hong Kong.

You think these guys have a space program?

Pssh. "We point the rocket up and shoot at the moon, insh'allah, it does not martyr itself."

These morons shoot regular bullets straight up in the air.

Posted by: Entropy at March 04, 2009 05:09 PM (m6c4H)

94

Palestinian rockets that go 200 yards = Ballistic missiles.

Kassams are really just variants of the old Soviet Katyusha design, which in turn were really just jumped up bottle-rockets with explosive warheads. The Soviets fired them in series from mobile launchers, and relied on area saturation rather than point accuracy. The Palis can't do this, and so they use the Kassam as a longer-range artillery system, only with significantly less accuracy and firepower than even a 100mm artillery shell.

They are technically ballistic missiles in that they are unguided and spin-stabilized, but they are more primitive than that. A Kassam can travel more than two miles, but "aiming" it involves pointing it in the general direction of the target and then hoping for the best. The CEP on a Kassam is probably more than five hundred yards, which means that you'd probably be better off using a trebuchet to throw big rocks.

There has been some fears that the Palestinians would get their hands on Grads or Frog missiles, but I don't see that -- these weapons systems require infrastructure and training the Palis don't have. And if the Palis fired a Frog at Dimona, the Israelis would go truly medieval on their asses.

 

Posted by: Monty at March 04, 2009 05:32 PM (/0a60)

95 Andros:  10,000 missiles of the Persian army descend upon you!  Our rockets will blot out the sun!


Posted by: Cincinnatus at March 04, 2009 05:39 PM (xXHue)

96 Shorter Monty and the shysters who pimp missile "defense":

Our systems are worthless at defending against the primitive rockets fired by the Palestinians at Israel, but they'll work just great against a massive launch by the Soviets or Iran, trust us...and keep giving us $10 billion a year!

Posted by: andros at March 04, 2009 06:02 PM (k39jK)

97 Our systems are worthless at defending against the primitive rockets fired by the Palestinians at Israel, but they'll work just great against a massive launch by the Soviets or Iran, trust us...and keep giving us $10 billion a year!

Yep, you're an idiot. I had my doubts, but you've laid them to rest.

Posted by: Monty at March 04, 2009 06:20 PM (dCZbI)

98 Shorter andros: you idiots, what good is an AR-15 rifle if you can't kill flies with it? Waste of money, I tell ya.

Posted by: JB at March 04, 2009 06:21 PM (rVxHX)

99 Personally I figure Medvedev said "K'Chortu" to Obama.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 04, 2009 06:48 PM (PQY7w)

100 You live near bulletproof flies, JB?

My sympathies.

Posted by: andros at March 04, 2009 07:36 PM (k39jK)

101 Andros, you could knock down the Quassam rockets (like they said, they're Katushya derivatives, hell, Congreave derivatives) with a 20mm Phalanx gun on the back of a truck. Not hard. Proven tech going back to the late '70's.The problem is the hail of 20mm rounds adhere to the "what goes up must come down" school of gravitational law, and the Israelis have made the rather generous decision that it's better to duck and cover than shower the Palestinians (and maybe their own people) in plunging-fire 20mm cannon rounds.

But you're still a fucking idiot.

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How many did the Israelis kill last time?

1300?

I think you are the idiot, son.

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