1 All hail Teh One, Destroyer of Markets.

2 2000-2500.

3

That article is missing the two most important pieces of information:

 

1. what University is this assclown affiliated with

and

2. where did the funding come from

4 d'oh.  how the hell did that get posted in the wrong thread?  weird.

5 cified on a cross of gold?

How'm I looking *now*, you latter day William Jennings Bryans

6 The idiocy of Obama's economic advisors continues....actually drawing a parallel, favorably, to FDR's economic plan that of course resulted in nearly a DECADE of 20 percent unemployment.  I feel like we've entered an alternative universe devoid of logic.

Quote:

In fact, Romer said, the stimulus, the financial rescue plan, and the housing plan could combine to become the modern-day version of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal that drove the country out of the Great Depression.

“In my mind, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, together with the financial stabilization plan and housing reforms announced over the past few weeks, may provide just such a Rooseveltian moment,” she said. “We could see fiscal policy having more effect than usual by giving American consumers and producers the confidence and certainty they need to get back to spending and investing.”

7 The real bottom tends to overshoot because people get panicky. E.g, housing prices are historically 2 times income; they went up nationally to about 4.5 times income. They'll probably fall to close to 1.5 times income or lower, depending on buyer fear of it getting even worse, seller desperation, and the difficulty of getting a loan (messing with the banking laws will make loan standards waaaaay tighter because of the poor market and impossiblity of foreclosure). The stock market in the Great Depression lost 90% off the peak. Losing 88% (what you're calculating) is totally possible.

8 It's a good thing I don't have any money.
I'd be broke by now.

9 Waiter?  Hemlock please, black.

10 Be grateful The One stopped the markets from falling further, you ungrateful SOBs

11 I've reallocated my investments to help me position myself for the best in the oncoming market crash.  I've pulled out of mutuals and have re-invested my assets with a heavy emphasis on gold, ammo and Stoli.  I call that a diversified portfolio.

12 The stock bottom is determined by how soon the housing price correction happens. The longer that takes, the lower the market goes. That correction is being delayed by goverment action that also directly depresses the market.

My bet: well under 1000 in today's dollars, but inflation will hide it.

I am very, very out.

13 Yup. It's a good thing that the MSM only concerned with failure in statements from Rush Limbaugh. Otherwise they might notice that Obama IS an epic failure, whether Rush wants him to be or not.

But enough of these Wall St. distractions. Has anyone heard any more about the secret Bush memo from 7 years ago?

14

I had thought the market would be kind of stable today because the overnight DOW futures cam in at +24 this morning. But no, it is falling again, just not as hard as yesterday.

 

So how low can it go? Since we have a communist Hugo Chavez wannabe in the WH with plenty of backup in congress it can go real low. With all the policies of nationalization, albeit under different names like Tarp, bailout, stimulus et al, it CAN go all the way to zero.

 

Someone said yesterday it can’t go to zero but that is not correct. You see when we finally become 100% communist there will be no DOW and no stock market. The government will own it all and the DOW will then be effectively zero.

 

Welcome to the USSA comrades. Now go get in line for your daily bread.

15 Stop fretting. The market is not a part of our coming socialist utopia.

16 You beat me Vic. :-)

17 When Bernacke/ Timmay!/ Obama speaks, the DOW listens... and immediately plummets.

18 housing prices are historically 2 times income;

Not to drag this off topic, but I read an interesting article about historical housing prices that argued that this is not the best way to measure affordability because it doesn't take mortgage rates into account.

In other words, your true cash outlay each month is a function of your principal plus interest. When interest rates are low, you can buy more house for the same monthly payment.

19 I've pulled out of mutuals and have re-invested my assets with a heavy emphasis on gold, ammo and Stoli.

OK geniuses morons.  'Splain  me why the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are down less than 0.75%, but gold is down about 2.75%?

20

The market runs on fear and greed. Simple. Fear has been, and continues to, dominate the market. At some point, greed will begin to grow exponentially. Of course, the experts will tell you that trying to pick a market bottom is difficult, if not impossible. However, when good companies can be bought for 3-5 times earnings, some would argue that buying them makes sense, whether the market is at a bottom or not.

Of course, all the above presumes that the government doesn't own or control every fucking business. Since that objective seems to be Obama's strategy, greed may never show it's beautiful face.

And after all, wasn't it the greedy capitalists that got us into this mess to begin with? (sarc/off)

We are all soooo fucked.

21 What reason is there to put money into the stock market?

Since there is no good answer to that; it will continue to go down.

22 I've been in the market forever- love the satisfaction of picking a great company and making $$$.
That said, all I own now is a little bit of tech- solely due to these people in charge.
There is no historical model where higher taxes and regulations = bull markets.
Does not happen and especially so when the president want to "remake American society".
 

23

"Yup. It's a good thing that the MSM only concerned with failure in statements from Rush Limbaugh. Otherwise they might notice that Obama IS an epic failure, whether Rush wants him to be or not."

I fully believe that, when there is no longer any way to spin Obama's failures, it will be blamed entirely on partisanship and "The Party of No."

24 This is only the first battle in St. Obama's War on Bankers.

In General Geithner's absence, Field Marshall Gibbs will be reporting the body counter later today.  General Geithner has been incognito since enabling the Obama Cloaking Device (OCD).

25 Splain me why the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are down less than 0.75%, but gold is down about 2.75%?

There's some debate about whether we're entering an inflationary or deflationary cycle.

Yes, the govt is pumping monopoly money into the economy, but declining velocity (the amount of times a dollar changes hands) can offset or even overcome the effects.

Depressions tend to be deflationary.

At some point, if the geniuses running our monetary policy don't suck the money back out with perfect timing, we'll have inflation. My guess is deflation for a few years followed by massive inflation.

But who knows? I'm just an AoS moron.

26

In other words, your true cash outlay each month is a function of your principal plus interest. When interest rates are low, you can buy more house for the same monthly payment.

And when you artificially keep rates low by 1) tortured Fed policy and 2) force banks to change their underwriting rules to accomodate dead beats who shouldn't have a Discover card let alone a mortgage you increase the pool of people vying for a loan and thus drive up home prices.

It's all good till somebody realizes the dead beats are, well, dead beats.

I'd like to see Franklin Raines, Barney Frank, Maxine Waters, Gregory Meeks and the other race warriors and supporters strung up in the town square.

27 My guess is based on the finding that at peak stocks were selling for a record 40 times their earnings, and that after a crash, they usually fall to 5-8 times their earnings.

Okay, I was actually pondering this on the drive into work this morning.  Let me preface by mentioning again my well documented inability to do math.  I was always under the impression that the selling ratio for a stock should be in the range of 5-10ish over earnings.  Anything over that was overvalued and you took a risk of being caught flatfooted when the market swung.  I remember concerns being raised over the last few years that sale prices were no longer at all correlating to any type of rational p/e ratio.  If that's the case, then is this a market correction to get rid of overinflated value?  Look, I could be way way way wrong about that, but it seems that a reset to a truer baseline is a good thing overall.  At least that's what I'm reminding myself as my 401(k) statements bleed all the red ever.  I know we have some pretty smart Morons around, so I welcome being put some knowledge. 

28 Low enough to wipe me out and not one point lower.

29

they usually fall to 5-8 times their earnings

which doesn't even account for lower earnings.

30 'Splain  me why the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are down less than 0.75%, but gold is down about 2.75%?

Commodities are coming out of a speculative bubble. Not all of the price of gold is pure 'value;' there's a lot of hype inside the price. Just like oil last year, the speculators are staring down at the other side of that slope and are naturally nervous. Second, investors are having to bail out their portfolios, covering stock losses by selling off other assets. If you face margin calls on your stocks, selling an overbought asset makes a lot of sense.

31 #24
I knew Obastard suffered from OCD.  I just didn't know it was an invisibility shield.

32 remember that P/E is comprised of both the P and the E.  In other words, earnings can recover first, driving the P/E lower, before the P recovers.  The recent high P/E ratio is a result of investments being concentrated in supersafe areas like coke and walmart, and highly speculative areas like solar, coupled with collapsing earnings.  Similar situation back in 1929, but the economy was much less diversified.  The Fed has been alot smarter than back then, but the govt is operating at least as stupidly.

33 Well, we're returning to the 30s in every other respect, right, so I'm predicting a return to 30s levels in the stock market.  The DOW was something like 75 or 99 or something back then, right?

That's where we're heading.  Abbundanza!

34 Besides "How low will it go?" are questions like "Who will still be in business?" when it gets there.  At some point, recessions become depressions and people and companies just go away.

35 This latest "budget" clusterfuck will raise our debt level from 40% of GDP to 60%. 
Helicopter Ben still hasn't figured out what the fuck's going on.

Ø-bammy, JoDaBiden, Nancy Botox, and Dingy Harry are all total fucktards.

And the spineless losers in the GOP are busy attacking Limbaugh.

We are fucked. SO fucking fucked.

36 #35

fuckin sock

37 Pending home sales are up in the west and down the most in the northeast.  Guess they chinese millionaire field trips to calironia to buy real estate are showing up in the stats.

38 Kensington all morons must think a like. I just was looking that up.

July 8, 1932 the market closed at 41.22. That was the lowest market had been since the 19th century.

39

You people don't understand Barry's vision.

He had to burn the economy to save it.

40 JackStraw,

I'm not arguing that keeping rates artificially low was good policy. Hell, I have a 30 year fixed rate loan in a less than desirable neighborhood. Why? Because I'm conservative as hell with my money and I was taking baby steps toward buying the house we'll live in until retirement.

Now I get to bail out all the deadbeats - just like you do.

And home prices are still artificially high, albeit less so than a few years ago. But we're moving anyway. It's what I call the "let's get our boy the hell away from these lowlifes and their shitty schools" tax. All parents who want the best for their kids are forced to pay it. And while it pisses me off to no end, I thank God every day that I have the means to pay it.

41

we were told that we had to bail out AIG to avoid a global economic calamity.  We did that and the economy continues to tank with stocks/the economy  in a freefall.  isn't that at least a clue that perhaps we should not have done it and that the proponents should have to explain why continuing to do what has already failed makes sense?

42

Rush is calling the MSM Butt Boys for Barry.

It fits...

43 Everything is going according to plan. Unlike our invasion and occupation of Iraq, Obama is on plan. This is his grande opus to drive government to 60% of GDP. Making the USA an official member of the Socialist League of Nations much like France, Sweden & Belgium. Less like the UK and Netherlands but moving further away from free enterprise, capitalism and entrepreneurial liberty. The only way to stop this is to bring back the silent majority, get good fiscal conservatives to run for congress in 2010, including supporting Pat Toomey for Specter's senate seat and most importantly, send the Dems packing. If not, then it is too late.

p.s. I just read my Snapple cap: Did you know there is a town called Big Ugly in West Virginia?

44

When Bernacke/ Timmay!/ Obama speaks

 

Yes, I turned on the news to watch while I ate lunch and flipped it over to CNBC. Once again they were doing nonstop coverage of a committee hearing and there was my douche nozzle senator on their talking. Yes, good old Linseedoil Grahamnasty the supreme asshole of the universe.

 

Folks, I can not see why anyone in the media shows a congressional hearing.  These things are the most useless waste of resources that congress does as part of their function (other than simply throwing money in a hole) and also the most boring.  A hearing consists of nothing more than Senator X reading a prepared propaganda statement, either castigating or supporting the poor bastard that was summoned to appear depending on which side of the aisle is in favor, and finally when all is said and done, if ANY legislation comes out it has NOTHING to do with the hearing.

 

When you have the communists in charge of all three branches it is even worse. The communist Senator reads his propaganda from the talking points. The executive branch member reads his talking points from the same memo as an answer and at the end of the day they all wipe the splooge from their faces and go home (or to their whores in apartments secreted away) and feel good about themselves for decieving the stupid voters.

45 "41

we were told that we had to bail out AIG to avoid a global economic calamity.  We did that and the economy continues to tank with stocks/the economy  in a freefall.  isn't that at least a clue that perhaps we should not have done it and that the proponents should have to explain why continuing to do what has already failed makes sense?

Posted by: ed at March 03, 2009 12:27 PM (Urhve)"

They should never have let Lehman fail.   Since that was under little Timmay's watch at the NY fed, and since little Timmay has been so scarce as late, everyone is losinng the smidgeon of confidence they might have had.

BO on trying to explain the letter he sent to Russia that they made fun of him with.

46

I'm not arguing that keeping rates artificially low was good policy.

I didn't think you were, I was agreeing with you.  I'm just furious that the total focus of the MSM and just about everyone else is on the "evil bankers" instead of the absolute incompetent assholes in DC who set this train wreck in motion.  We are never going to get out of this whole if we keep pretending that capitalism failed and hammering investors instead of fixing the real problem.

47 There could be a lot written about comparing over-valued companies (price/earnings ratios that are too high) with companies whose "valuation" (total stock times stock price) bear no resemblance to their actual assets.  It's no surprise to me that our 40-year credit and real estate bubbles are also reflected in corporate over-valuation by any measurement standard.  This "contraction" is long overdue.  And making money on equity can not be sustained when it over-reaches actual profit decade after decade.

Had it not contributed to this problem with screwy deregulation of investment banking and promoting the real estate bubble, our government should have stayed completely out of this contraction cycle.

48 Some people just want to see the world burn.  Apparently, Obama is one of those people.

49 "46

I'm not arguing that keeping rates artificially low was good policy.

I didn't think you were, I was agreeing with you.  I'm just furious that the total focus of the MSM and just about everyone else is on the "evil bankers" instead of the absolute incompetent assholes in DC who set this train wreck in motion.  We are never going to get out of this whole if we keep pretending that capitalism failed and hammering investors instead of fixing the real problem.

Posted by: JackStraw at March 03, 2009 12:32 PM (VW9/y)"

My admittedly dumb blonde friend, the one who favors bubblegum, has emailed us all asking the qintessential question:  "watched a little of that hearing today, you would think those senators, knowing we've had a financial problem for so long, would have gotten a little financial education so they coud at least sound intelligent.  I mean, guys, even I can see, "they know nothing"!

50

Let's all do the Economic Limbo Rock!

"How low can you go?"

 

51 I sent an email to the white house about statements driving the market down. You have five subject line choices in their form: policy question, non-policy question, need a reply, other, and congratulations. Congratulations? Hilarious. What humility in not making it the only subject choice.

52 Gordon Brown does not have the polished British accent that the overly well educated well bred brits have.

53

Not to drag this off topic, but I read an interesting article about historical housing prices that argued that this is not the best way to measure affordability because it doesn't take mortgage rates into account.

\In other words, your true cash outlay each month is a function of your principal plus interest. When interest rates are low, you can buy more house for the same monthly payment.

Posted by: Warden at March 03, 2009 12:10 PM

Warden, you can pick your indicator: 2 times income, 25% of monthly take-home pay, 100 times a month's rent on the equivalent house. They all work out to be roughly the same. The mortgage "rate" only matters if you're renting, not buying. Historically, people bought a home that they intended to stay in and pay off. Therefore, home prices were in some way correlated to income because it was based on what people could afford to pay back. The minute you start saying, "but I can afford the payments!" and you never look at the principal, you're screwed. It's like thinking you can pay off a credit card by paying the minimum every month.

That is what got people into the troubles with ARMs and all the other creative mortgages. The bulk of cost of a home is never the interest; it is always the principal. Changes in the interest rate makes the difference of a few thousand dollars. Changes in the ratio to income makes the difference in tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars, which, no matter how low the interest, still drives the cost of interest up.

54 Screw the stock market.  I'm waiting for the real estate market to hit bottom, then I'm buying every piece of real estate I can, tearing down whatever is standing on it, and creating graveyards in which to bury the 20 million baby boomers who are going to starve to death during the Great Party of No/Rush Limbaugh Super-Depression.  They'll starve to death because Obama has destroyed their pension funds with his idiotic policies, but nobody will ever know that as the MSM will still be following Rush around grilling him about Michael Steele.

55

whole?  hole.

My mind appears to be in a downward trend lately, too.

56 It is softball, "can we see your questionns ahead of time" allegedly "off the cuff" press conference time.  Interesting angle  that they are filming the pres from, doesn't alow you to see if there is a mic in his left ear.

57

Some people just want to see the world burn.  Apparently, Obama is one of those people.

 

We should start calling him “The Trashcan Man”.  He trash, what’d you burn down the church economy for?

58 The minute you start saying, "but I can afford the payments!" and you never look at the principal, you're screwed.

Car dealerships have made a hell of a lot of money based on exploiting that mentality.

The last time I went car shopping, I had a lot of fun with the sales squids who tried to pull the 'ol, "How much did you want to pay a month?" bit on me.

59 And the Great Depression wasn't deflationary. It had very mild inflation, in the 1-4% range, for 8 of 12 years. Two years at the beginning had mild deflation, less than -2%.

And Weimer was hardly a bustling, prosperous Germany, and they had inflation in the triple digits. When you inflate the money supply, you create inflation. Period. There was one year of deflation before inflation took off in Weimer. We are in that year, before they inflate us into the glorious future without deflation.

Oh, and that's called screwing over savers, investors, and anyone who owns stuff. Inflation only helps the super rich (which can adapt to anything), and deadbeat people/companies who can't handle their debt. Inflation is not your friend.

60 Did Scarborough really just say on his radio show that "little timay when he gave his initial speech wet his pants"?  Hope he has his depends on today then.

61 "57

Some people just want to see the world burn.  Apparently, Obama is one of those people.

 

We should start calling him “The Trashcan Man”.  He trash, what’d you burn down the church economy for?

Posted by: Vic at March 03, 2009 12:40 PM (f6os6)"

They are really not well equipped to deal with a cash buyer.  The last time I bought a car they begged me to take a loan.

62 Obama's policies could actually push the market into negative territory. I'm thinking - 200 after 4 years.

63

Has anyone else noticed that up to and right after the election, every news website would have blaring headlines about how far down the stock market was for the day?But now, even after blasting through 7000, I'm really not seeing a ton of coverage on it on the same sites. (Those sites being CNN, Fox, etc.)

I'd think it's splash page worthy.

64 P/E is "supposed to be" about 12, long-term.  This gives an average return of about 8% per year.  That's for reasonably stable businesses.  Things get a bit out of whack for the supersafe stocks (staples like coke and monopolies like microsoft) or speculative stocks that make breakthroughs (pharma at the lower end, R&D tech stocks like solar at the other).

re: alexthechick (et al.) if you want to see overinflated values, check out this chart:
http://dshort.com/charts/bear-recoveries.html?bears-since-1950 
huge 90's bubble.  bush years stalled the correction which was starting to occur at the beginning his presidency.  misallocation of capital multiplied by debt financing and high leverage ratios, further exacerbated by excessive consumption.

just finished "the ascent of money".  not a long book.  all-in-all, a recommended read for those that want to know more.  gives a good history of monetary mismanagement and the unique importance of the financial sector.  "those who do not remember the past..."

65 "63

Has anyone else noticed that up to and right after the election, every news website would have blaring headlines about how far down the stock market was for the day?But now, even after blasting through 7000, I'm really not seeing a ton of coverage on it on the same sites. (Those sites being CNN, Fox, etc.)

I'd think it's splash page worthy.

Posted by: Saluki at March 03, 2009 12:46 PM (Lh1qk)"

the state run media is not going to report that stuff now, that was only done to make sure their fearless leader got elected.

66 "July 8, 1932 the market closed at 41.22. That was the lowest market had been since the 19th century."

Ooh, that's a great point; we shouldn't be too optimistic:  how low did it go in the 19th century?

Maybe that's where we're heading?

Has anyone eaten cat food?  Which are the tastiest brands amongst the cheap stuff?

67 Posted by: Sharkman at March 03, 2009 12:39 PM (69J41)

Dude, that's so dark I got chills.  Nice!

68

Silly @ 65

I figured as much. *sigh* What a nightmare.

69 My wife and I bought a car with cash.  You should have seen the dealer's face turn ashen when he asked what monthly payment we were looking for and we whipped out the checkbook to write down the sticker price + tax.

And then people wonder why Americans have lots of debt and cars aren't selling as well lately.

70 I agree with 5-8 x earnings.

However, the problem is this - earnings are still falling.

Deadbeatonomics will continue to drive revenues and earnings down.  Ford sales are down 48%.  No amount of bailout can fix Ford, if they don't sell cars.

What is the market valuation for 8x zero?

71 Heads up.  Apparently 60 minutes did a  piece on the guy who tried desperately to warn the SEC about bernie.   This morning Regis and kelly were discussing this.  So now the don't give me any real news or  information crowd got a dose of real information.

72 How much time have you got?

73 Hey guys, don't look now but the market's actually rallied a li — . . . no, wait, false alarm.  Down again.

It was good while it lasted.  Didn't even get to finish my afterglow cigarette, though.

74

<em>When you inflate the money supply, you create inflation.</em>

Sounds familiar.  It's particularly cleaver how we sell those trillions of fake dollars to foreigners & fooling the American public into believing there's no inflation.

75 "U.S. President Barack Obama said “buying stocks is a potentially good deal if you’ve got a long term perspective.” He spoke at a press briefing in Washington while meeting U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown."  http://tinyurl.com/cwuq8m

76 Has anyone eaten cat food?  Which are the tastiest brands amongst the cheap stuff?

Cat food! That will be for holidays. I wonder what cat taste like?

The coming depression will eliminate the stray pet problem in American.

77

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks mostly edged higher on Tuesday after President Barack Obama said share prices are potentially a good deal at current levels, offsetting persistent uncertainty about plans to shore up the financial system.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said the Obama administration will evaluate potential costs to stabilize banks as more information becomes available, in testimony before a congressional panel.

Well, then problem solved wingnuts.  Doubting Thomases the lot of you.

-Associated Press.

78 er. Reuters.  Same difference.

79 Look at the bright side.  The market can only drop another 6,700 points!

80 Has anyone eaten cat food?  Which are the tastiest brands amongst the cheap stuff?

This stuff isn't funny any longer.  We may yet be reduced to that.  Which reminds me...

I knew a guy who had a teenage job at a dog food plant.  The workers used to joke about which flavor was the least sickening, if the nuclear apocalypse happened and everyone had to eat dog food.  They concluded that the vegetable stew was best, since it contained a higher proportion of vegetables than the other flavors, and there is no such thing as dog food grade vegetables.  They had to use vegetables fit for human consumption.  The meat flavors were made with stuff illegal to serve to people.

So we've got that going for us.

81 why does he have such creepy, spock like eyebrows and such pointy spock like ears?  Is he a closet trekkie?

82

DJIA low - 1200 - 1600, sometime in July 2010.

July 2009 - 2000 - 2500.

Just my guesses. Recovery sometime in 2013, after 'That One" is thrown out of office by _______ & Palin.

83

we were told that we had to bail out AIG to avoid a global economic calamity.  We did that and the economy continues to tank with stocks/the economy  in a freefall.  isn't that at least a clue that perhaps we should not have done it and that the proponents should have to explain why continuing to do what has already failed makes sense?

This argument about AIG goes 'round and 'round and never seems to get settled.  The only way you are going to come to grips with what is going on with AIG is to understand the derivatives market, what it is, how it works, the leverage and exposure it contains and how big certain player like AIG are in the derivatives market.

Let me give you one little factoid that may make you sphincter pucker.  Last summer, the Bank of International Settlements estimated the value of derivatives outstanding in the market at $1.14 quadrillion.  A quadrillion isn't just a number they made up, it means a 1000 trillion.  Worse, about 95% of that $1.14 quadrillion is on margin.  Measure that against the value of the world economy.

If significant players in the derivative market like AIG are allowed to go bankrupt, the house of cards that is the derivative market would crumble taking much of worldwide financial system with it when the margin calls on all those derivatives come due.  The dominos would fall.

Warren Buffet called derivatives "weapons of financial mass destruction" and "and time bombs, both for the parties that deal in them and the economic system". 

All these discussions about the value of the market are interesting but if the derivative market melts down everything will come undone.

84 Forget cat food.  I'm eating pork.  There's a 4 year supply.

85

Kensington:  The best part of the Real Estate Empire Turned Graveyard for Boomers Plan is the part where, because the US is bankrupt and we can't really afford to buy embalming chemicals, we just get to plant 'em as quickly as possible in their natural state. Step two is to plant a Redwood or Pine or Oak or Some Other Type of Cool Tree seedling right on top of each grave and let the tree "eat" the boomer's corpse in the process of growing.  Boomers in the ground = reforestation of the US.  Pretty slick, hey?

Those are going to be some seriously haunted forests for scaring kids with, once Obama drives our economy back to the middle ages and people start believing in vampires and shit again.  Oh, wait, 35% of movies coming out of Hollywood the last five years have been about vampires.  Wherewolves, then.

86 Inga: Werewolf!Dr. Frankenstein: Where wolf?Igor: There.Dr. Frankenstein: What?Igor: There, wolf. There, castle.Dr. Frankenstein: Why are you talking that way?Igor: I thought you wanted to.Dr. Frankenstein: No, I don't want to.Igor: [shrugs] Suit yourself. I'm easy.

87 Is that guy to the right of timmay wearing brown eye shadow?

88  Wow.  Obastard just said the stock market is "like a tracking poll in politics," and he would be foolish to pay attention.

Fuck you, Barry, and fuck CNN, Gallup, and the other pollsters.  I will agree with the Unicorn.  The market is a poll, and Barry's numbers suck chrome-plated rhinoceros cock.

89 Ahh, I love that movie:  Werewolf!

90 JackStraw, @#83: Let me give you one little factoid that may make you sphincter pucker.  Last summer, the Bank of International Settlements estimated the value of derivatives outstanding in the market at $1.14 quadrillion.  A quadrillion isn't just a number they made up, it means a 1000 trillion.  Worse, about 95% of that $1.14 quadrillion is on margin.  Measure that against the value of the world economy.

That's a little misleading, because $1.14 quadrillion isn't the real-dollar amount of money invested.  Look up "notional value" on Wikipedia.

If you and I make a derivative trade on a $100,000 entity, be it a stock, a bond, a piece of real estate, whatever, we're only going to exchange a minor fraction of that value.  But there's no real way to quantify that amount, so the only thing that gets counted is the $100K.  That's what leads to the ridiculous numbers getting thrown around.

91

That's a little misleading, because $1.14 quadrillion isn't the real-dollar amount of money invested.  Look up "notional value" on Wikipedia.

Would it make you feel better if I said the number was $548 trillion listed and $596 notional (or otc)?

I didn't think so.

92

This won't affect my lace wigs shares, will it?

93
#90 there's no real way to quantify that amount, so the only thing that gets counted is the $100K.  That's what leads to the ridiculous numbers getting thrown around.

Yeah I don't know how to figure that, but some of these guys are on the line for insuring the full amounts? so these large move in asset prices means some are on the hook for a large fraction of that $quadrillion ... ? 

I don't know what a "counterparty" is exactly, but I'm afraid the crafty are walking off with billions and the taxpayer is left holding the bag (of shit?) ... is the government bailing these guys out, or putting the US on the hook for unlimited liabilities?  I don't know ... but it is not looking good ... and all those Democrats are grinning a little too much ...

94

OK geniuses morons.  'Splain  me why the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P are down less than 0.75%, but gold is down about 2.75%?
There's less latinum to be gold-pressed because of fears its mining will be hurt by Obama's upcoming carbon taxes. Thus the fall off in gold's price.

95 a tracking poll doesn't represent money lost and jobs lost and businesses destroyed.  this guy is truly clueless and a danger to this country and the world.

96

p.s. I just read my Snapple cap: Did you know there is a town called Big Ugly in West Virginia?

Michelle is from WV?

97

There's less latinum to be gold-pressed because of fears its mining will be hurt by Obama's upcoming carbon taxes.

So then shouldn't there be 'less' of it, increasing its value?

98 The stock market recovered to 1929 levels by 1954. By 1950, it had regained half the 1929 peak for good. Good times are ahead! Hope, Change, and Federal Oversight to you all.

99 Has anyone eaten cat food?  Which are the tastiest brands amongst the cheap stuff?

No need to resort to that.  Order a anchovies, garlic and pineapple pizza to be delivered to a vacant lot.  When the pizza dude gets there and sees its a vacant lot, he'll take the pizza back and toss it in their dumpster, which you raid two minutes later.  Scrape the nasty anchovies off and enjoy your free pizza.

100 The Visigoths are sacking Rome as we speak...

The DJIA closed at 14,000 on July 19, 2007...  Since then San Fran Nan and the Dem's actions have cut America's wealth by 50%...

Mr. Brooks and all the "rational DC Conservatives" have finally realized that Obama's "Global New Deal" looks a lot like Maxist-Leninism:  "Capitalism can only be overthrown by revolutionary means"

Dow 4,000 by Memorial Day is feasible... 

To achieve the stated goal of rolling back Reaganism requires Obama to drive the market to 937.20, (the close on Nov 3, 1980, the day before election day 1980) before the mid-term 2010 elections...

101 Has anyone eaten cat food?  Which are the tastiest brands amongst the cheap stuff?

Cat food! That will be for holidays. I wonder what cat taste like?

The coming depression will eliminate the stray pet problem in American.

A story I will tell about a major pet food company.

Back in the day old people were eating pet food 'cause it was cheaper than tuna.  The company got wind of it to the point of the family having controlling interest in the company hear of it.  One of the family members reportedly said that they can't make the food so it's nutritious for humans but they could at least make it taste better.

102 This won't affect my lace wigs shares, will it?

Don't worry, no matter how bad the economy gets baldies will always need wigs.

103 JackStraw:  You're telling me the same thing twice.  $548T in notional value listed (i.e. traded in exchanges) plus $596T traded OTC (off-market private contract) = $1.14 quadrillion.  It doesn't matter how it's divvied up, because those aren't the amount of the wagers being made, but of the underlying value of the assets that the trade is a derivative of.  That's why it's called a "derivative."  That $100,000 entity we made a derivative trade on earlier can be repeated endlessly.  You can make that trade with me and nine other people, but it doesn't mean you're on the hook for $1 million if the whole market goes pear-shaped.

Don't get me wrong, it's still shitty and still calamitous, but there's several orders of magnitude of difference between what we're actually facing in real dollars and the theoretical value of $1.14 quadrillion, which we're not and never will be on the hook for.  $1.14Q is approximately 20 times the world GDP for 2007, to put things in perspective.

If you buy Alex Rodriguez's baseball card off of me, you're not liable for his $25 million salary.


bill: AIG is in the trouble it's in because of something like that, but not for the full amount.  They were the largest insurer of credit-default swaps in the world, and their total liability "only" equalled $18 billion over the last three quarters.

104 JackStraw, that $1.14 quadrillion is no more real than the $3.55 trillion Teh Onederfulness has budgeted.

Take the options market, for example.  They don't have any inherent value, yet they can be traded numerous times over the life of the contract, whether they are ultimately exercised or held til expiry.  You can see the same contract sold over and over and still never see it exercised for an equity that has actual value.  Bullshit fluffery like this is one of the many ways the derivatives market has a hyperinflated value with no basis in reality.

Taking naked positions is just Russian roulette by another name.  Fuck encouraging this behavior.  When the revolver comes around to you, point it at these idiots' head and keep squeezing that trigger until it goes off.

You seem to see an apocalyptic wasteland as the result of the collapse of what you yourself is a "house of cards."  I don't, even though I fantasize of the Dark Times when I establish my reign of blood and ...

What were we talking about?

105 Oh c'mon, what are you complaining about?  The Dow's up to 6800 right now!

106

Finally can get back on.

 

Silly;

 

my reference to the “Trashcan Man” was a character in The Stand who wanted to burn the world down.

 

As for paying cash for a car, I have paid cash for every car and truck that I have purchased since 1985. Still, you never, ever, pay sticker price for a car.

 

You go on line and find out from any one of several hundred different sources what the wholesale price of the car is (or dealer cost). You knock about $500 dollars off of that and you start negations from there. That is unless the car is last year’s model and then you knock off more.

107

I don't know what a "counterparty" is exactly, but I'm afraid the crafty are walking off with billions and the taxpayer is left holding the bag (of shit?)

Bill-

Counterparty risk refers to the risk of default by the other party in a private or notional deal.  As INCITEmarsh pointed out, roughly half the outstanding derivative contracts are off books private transactions between two parties, usually with little to no actual underlying asset.  But they do hold real potential for danger.  You may not report them on your on your balance sheet but you may be using those off books notional trades as a part of your overall risk analysis and if huge numbers of them default, your assumed risk model could change dramatically forcing you to rebalance your asset portfolio asap or bad shit will happen.

An example, if you remember the Bear Stearns forced marriage last year about this time, S&P downgraded Bear's counterparty risk almost overnight from A to BBB, dramatically lowering the value of the company.  The Fed helped engineer a sale at $2 per share, 1/10 the price it was valued at the Friday before.  Further, the Fed had to put up the $30 billion sale price just to get Morgan to take the mess.  Why?  Here's why.

“JPMorgan Chase stands behind Bear Stearns,” Mr. Dimon said in a statement. “Bear Stearns’s clients and counterparties should feel secure that JPMorgan is guaranteeing Bear Stearns’s counterparty risk. We welcome their clients, counterparties and employees to our firm, and we are glad to be their partner.”

You see that word counterparty three times in this brief statement.  AIG makes Bear look like a gnat in the derivative space.  Derivatives are the underlying bomb in this whole mess and 99% of the public has no idea what they are.

Bottom line, we, the taxpayers are getting boned.  The only question is how hard to we want the boing to be.

108

Don't worry, no matter how bad the economy gets baldies will always need wigs.
But Blago will be in prison, or dead from that "keyboarding" "accident" in his cell!

109

REMEMBER Argentina?  They nationalize ALL pensions and put the money in Government bonds to save you from yourself.

First, THE ONE will close all the markets for a week, and when you wake up, your account will be full of good ole us bonds, inflated to fucking nothing!

Coming to a country you live in!

Kemp

110 Thanks JackStraw ... yeah, I just remember that it seemed passing the "counterparty risk" around seemed a little dangerous to me ... and intangible.  Those goldne boyz all seemed to be tied together, with US as the stop gap ... or something.

 I've been reading about the derivative problem since 1998, yet my brain starts to short circuit when I really try to grasp all the ramifications 

111 There could be a lot written about comparing over-valued companies (price/earnings ratios that are too high) with companies whose "valuation" (total stock times stock price) bear no resemblance to their actual assets.

There's that too.  I remember during the tech boom when everyone was investing in tech stocks and I wasn't people kept asking me why.  My response was "they don't *make* anything."  I could not for the life of me figure out how nearly any of the companies were going to eventually make money.  Sure, I didn't flip a stock for at 1,238% growth.  I also didn't lose my shirt when everything folded.

I don't mind some risk, I have a (very) small amount of disposable income that I'm currently holding back to invest once the market stabilizes a bit.  But that's money I can lose and not slit my wrists and stocks I plan to hold for several years.  I've never understood taking huge risks with money that can't afford to be lost.  That's insane. 

112 Hmmm never actually saw gibbs until now, does he always have that "i'm an nsane person" smile and laugh?

113

I don't, even though I fantasize of the Dark Times when I establish my reign of blood and ...

Can I be one of your goons?

114 Sure take off Ryan, maybe he will ask intelligent tough questions of Timmay.  Put back on the ever vapid gibbs.   Wow, he must believe in the chattering classes too, he keeps taking pot shots at people who watch cable and CNBC.  They are a small audience you know says he.

115 OMG, this is the pres secy?   He is giggling like a middle schoool girl.   No wonder  other countries are having a good laugh.

116

Now Barry is a market guru or he wants to get into stand up comedy

 

March 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. President Barack Obama said falling stock prices may mean bargains for investors with a “long-term perspective.”

Obama, who is seeking to boost public confidence in his strategy to revive the economy, noted that major U.S. stock indexes have continued to fall this year as the recession in the U.S. deepens.

“What you’re now seeing is profit and earning ratios are starting to get to the point where buying stocks is a potentially good deal, if you’ve got a long-term perspective on it,” Obama said at the White House today where he was meeting with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on battling the effects of a global recession.

He said that consumer confidence is “taking root” with enactment of the $787 billion package of spending and tax cuts he won from Congress last month.

117

Trends continue until they can't.  Nobody can hide 20% unemployment, and we're a third of the way there.  Incumbency will be as good as a bullseye on the back in 2010.

Already the "evil rich" who make $250K, say people like dentists, are saying they'll drop assistants, work fewer hours, and get themselves under the magic $250K mark.  Why not?  Someplace like NY, that's a proposed 40% to the Feds, plus almost 7 to the State, plus the proposed millionaire's tax if Patterson gets his way.  Who knows what they will do with FICA.  So, why work for half pay, take home?  It isn't like all the newly unemployed are springing for braces for their kids anyway.  The tax receipts will be lower than expected.  Those assistants they drop go on unemployment, and the deficit will be higher than expected.  That halve the deficit promise is as good as the rest of O's promises.

The market is just the collective judgement of our future prospects.  It's going down like a submarine because it's obvious that the community activist in chief hasn't a clue. 

Anybody got a "Miserable Failure" bumper-sticker?  It is not too soon.

 

 

118 43 p.s. I just read my Snapple cap: Did you know there is a town called Big Ugly in West Virginia?

------------------
Having been born and raised there, I'm not surprised at all. We have seen the ravages of Democrat government firsthand, too, courtesy of Robert "Sheets" Byrd. Gallows humor abounds.

PS: Welcome Back, Jack!

119 Can I be one of your goons?

Dude,  the benefits are better if you are in thrall to Our Dread Lady of the Stompy Boots.

120

Did Mistress LauraW say you could talk, minion #367211? I didn't think so. Assume "the position".

121 Can I be one of your goons?

There will always be openings for goons in the Empire of Jeff. There is a definite glass ceiling, though. A glass ceiling stained with the crusted blood and gore of goons who have a bit too much ambition.

Heh. That reminds me of this bit from the original Superman:

Lex Luthor: "Otisburg"?
Otis: It's a little bitty place!
Lex Luthor: [angrily] "Otisburg"?
Otis: Alright, I'll wipe it off, that's all.
[erases "Otisburg"]

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123 My parents, who worked very hard, saved diligently and invested wisely, have lost 40% of their savings. They were planning on living off interest and had for years, but no more.
My nephews' have lost over half of their college funds.

I hate Obama worse than any fucking hippy ever hated W. because Barry has insured it will only get worse. I loathe every idiot who voted for this tool. I love my country and it hurts to see this clueless dipshit and his merry band of cocksuckers in charge.

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