Obama's Rosy Assumptions

Greg Mankiw looks at the economic forecasts in the Obama budget and finds them a bit...optimistic when compared to consensus forecasts. He links a story that wonders whether "Rosy Scenario" is back.

Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at IHS Global Insight, a major private forecasting firm, called the administration's forecasts "way too optimistic" and said it could represent a return to the overly optimistic forecasts of previous administrations confronted by surging budget deficits.
"They used to joke during the Reagan years that the highest ranking woman in the administration was Rosy Scenario," he said. "We may be seeing a return of Rosy Scenario."

Obama's assumptions are particularly rosy, considering his plans to burden the economy with a crushing tax plan.

The 'rich' are going to get especially soaked. Basically, Obama is making the very dangerous assumption that increasing taxes don't affect taxpayer behavior.

Needless to say, he's wrong. And we all get to see just how wrong in a few years. Won't that be fun?

Posted by: Slublog at 10:19 AM

Comments

1 Market currently down ~90 points. Wall St. loves it some Obamanomics.

Posted by: Techie at February 27, 2009 10:21 AM (906oR)

2 Like Rush said, it is not about figuring out how to go about paying for any of this, it is about a constant cycle of soaking the productive, if it spirals downward that is a good thing in Obama's eyes, he can then grab more and more power to "fix" what he broke.

Posted by: Biden Bidet at February 27, 2009 10:25 AM (t/GDA)

3 Does anyone have naked pictures of this Rosy Scenario? She sounds hot!

Posted by: qwerty1 at February 27, 2009 10:26 AM (KwKEG)

4 we all get to see just how wrong in a few years. Won't that be fun?

Posted by: Slublog

Years? Try months.

Posted by: eman at February 27, 2009 10:26 AM (Ee8qq)

5 And now a jump of like 50pts. in 10 min.

Just another day on Wall St.

Posted by: Techie at February 27, 2009 10:26 AM (906oR)

6 I have a feeling that in a few years anyone that has anything in their possession will be considered 'rich' and in need of a good soaking. Except government employees of course.

Posted by: kefka at February 27, 2009 10:26 AM (uTg5e)

Bloomberg has a similiar story

Feb. 27 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama’s promise to slash a record deficit may rely on economic-growth projections for the coming years that are too optimistic.

The $3.55 trillion budget proposal for 2010 the president unveiled yesterday projects 3.2 percent economic growth next year, thanks to a $787 billion fiscal-stimulus measure he signed into law earlier this month that is aimed at creating jobs and consumer demand.

That is twice the 1.5 percent growth projected by the Congressional Budget Office before the stimulus bill was enacted and higher than the 2.1 percent consensus growth estimate by analysts in the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey. Even those projections may be too optimistic: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said this week the U.S. is suffering a “severe” contraction, and a government report today may show the economy shrank more than previously forecast in the fourth quarter.

“You can’t spur economic growth on your left hand in this economic environment while on your right hand you’re raising taxes,” said Tim Speiss, a partner in charge of the personal wealth group at Eisner LLP, a New York-based accounting and advisory firm.

Someone should send Barry the book Economics for Dummies.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at February 27, 2009 10:28 AM (1Jaio)

Bill O'Reilly used himself as a rough model for how Obama's taxing-the-rich will work. The end result was a total tax rate for Bill O'Reilly, Inc., of over 50%, but I don't remember the exact numbers, or methods. It was late, and I was tired.

Here's my prediction: Obama will start to do his best to burn & pillage the "evil greedy millionaires" of our country. The "top 5%" as we've heard them referred to. They will retailiate by moving their money around, finding as many loopholes and tax shelters as possible, and wind up NOT BECOMING the cash cows that Obama was needing them to be.

_{^{I don't think I could have dangled any more participles if I'd wanted to... Oh, wait!}}

Posted by: reason at February 27, 2009 10:30 AM (V40IZ)

9 Does Rosy Scenario talk in a fake Chinese accent?

Posted by: andycanuck at February 27, 2009 10:31 AM (TpHGM)

10 If the Stock market drops 50 points per day, on average, that's 1000 points per month.

Barry, a Cylon skinjob, has a plan.

Posted by: eman at February 27, 2009 10:32 AM (Ee8qq)

Anyone putting money in this market with a Depression GDP print is a bigger IDIOT than OBAMA. -6.2% for Q4 ... -24% annualized and Q1 2009 will come in worse than this number, after multiple revisions.

Obama-idiot is way beyond ROSY PREDICTIONS ...

Posted by: DJ at February 27, 2009 10:32 AM (rAtTQ)

12 Of course, the problem with "soaking the rich" in the first place is that they use the rhetoric of people who make millions to mask the fact that it isn't where the big revenue is. They're really gunning for the mass of people who we'd consider to make pretty good livings, but are hardly rich.

Posted by: Michael Moore's bleeding anus at February 27, 2009 10:36 AM (fkgyi)

Barry, a Cylon skinjob, has a plan.

Yep, and he told it to JTP during the primary. Spread the wealth, baby.

Alinsky would be proud.

Posted by: JackStraw at February 27, 2009 10:36 AM (VW9/y)

14 I work in the northern suburbs of Chicago. Very affluent area. I see tons of Obama bumperstickers. I'd love to see the messiah "soak" the shit out of these spoiled assholes. However, I'm sure they all have means to get around it.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at February 27, 2009 10:42 AM (1Jaio)

15 Personally, I'm hoping the timing of his tax changes 2011, I think, will play right into a Republican win in 2012. Gives those 'rich' tax payers plenty of time to be angry and the business plenty of time to NOT grow. Plus, we ALL know the tax plan will be lowered to include more middle class. It will have to be in order to subsidize all this spending.

Posted by: Kris G at February 27, 2009 10:45 AM (7GZEI)

16 Obama doesn't give a rat's ass about the economy. His agenda is social change. He'll pour as much as he wants into the economy....just like Hugo Chavez. By the time most Americans find they've been had, it will be too late. And Barry, like Billy before him, will apologize while shedding tears that he has to raise taxes on everyone.

Posted by: GarandFan at February 27, 2009 10:54 AM (237hA)

17 TheQuietMan @ 14

That's just it isn't it. The "rich" already have the system rigged in their favor. It's the unconnected who will get soaked.

Posted by: sears poncho at February 27, 2009 11:01 AM (uj/0b)

That's just it isn't it. The "rich" already have the system rigged in their favor. It's the unconnected who will get soaked.

I work for a wealth management company. I know these fuckers are all for this socialist bullshit while they park their money in tax exempt investments or go off-shore. What I meant was I would really like to see them get hit. Not just in bullshit political rhetoric but really feel the effects of the crap they claim to support. I'm not for any kind of class warfare of any kind but would like to see all of these limousine liberals really get a taste of what they claim they are for.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at February 27, 2009 11:09 AM (1Jaio)

Wait until all those rich Hollywood and Urbanite intellectuals that are still all leg-tingly realize what their new tax bill is going to be, and that Joe the Plumber is going to get a rebate from their share.

Maybe Moe-bama, Larry-Reid and Curly-Pelosi can show that it's not political suicide to raise taxes by a cool trillion. That could still happen, for the first time. People just need to read their lips.

Posted by: Roy at February 27, 2009 11:25 AM (cB77O)

20 Allow me to dump more shit on the rose... No one, it seems, is projecting the impact of Obama's green energy plan. You don't grow an economy by limiting the use of fossil fuels (cap and trade, banning extraction), killing any hope of a nuclear revival (killing Yucca Mtn.), and installing windmills and solar (a fucking expensive joke). Energy costs are going up. Everyone will get their share of the shit sandwich. And a special shout-out to those in the Rust-belt who voted for Zero. You're gonna get an extra large serving.

Posted by: bunny boy at February 27, 2009 11:26 AM (YsSn7)

I would really like to see that happen but I'm sure those wealthy libtards already have their tax dodges in place.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at February 27, 2009 11:29 AM (1Jaio)

22 21
I would really like to see that happen but I'm sure those wealthy libtards already have their tax dodges in place.

-----
You're right. Wealthy libtards just don't pay taxes, and they get away with it, while everyone else has to pay through the nose.

The Revolution needs to begin now, y'all!

Posted by: The Other Shoe at February 27, 2009 11:36 AM (Pus2I)

You're right. Wealthy libtards just don't pay taxes, and they get away with it, while everyone else has to pay through the nose.

The Revolution needs to begin now, y'all!

I'm not saying they don't pay taxes but they never feel the full effect of the lefty shit they vote for and claim to support. They have the means to soften the soak the rich shit they vote for so it doesn't fully impact them. Some are just so damn dumb it wouldn't matter any way but most with their Obama '08 bumperstickers don't want to pay through the noses. They are complete hypocrites.

If Oprah and the rest of the Hollywood types want to spread the wealth then they should sell one of their mansions and give the money to "the poor". But instead they talk of having compassion for "the poor" which makes them feel good about themselves and then hid as much of their wealth from the tax man as they can.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at February 27, 2009 11:45 AM (1Jaio)

24 Won't that be fun?

And by fun you of course mean resisting the urge to either drive into a bridge abutment or applying repeatedly, and at high velocity, a tire-iron to the head of the first person you see whose car sports an "O" bumper sticker. Right?

Posted by: DocJ at February 27, 2009 11:58 AM (g8ibn)

25 Just a month ago, President Obama and the Democrats in congress were saying "its a bad idea to raise taxes in this economy" and now they want to raise taxes. What changed? The stimulus passed, so they are presuming with the idiot economics of a down's syndrome child that things will be roaring along in two years when the tax increases kick in.

In 2 years when the economy looks like Carter's worst nightmare, we'll see.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at February 27, 2009 12:16 PM (PQY7w)

26 Gosh, I'm starting to think this new administration is actually worse than we could have ever imagined.

If America still exists other than in name only, which I doubt, there will soon be the largest national uprising & revolt in hundreds of years.

Don't count on it.

Even when these lunatics are making it illegal to provide medical care to your grandmother, stealing every cent you earn, stifling all dissent, providing free abortions to your daughters, freeing violent criminals, making it illegal to defend yourself, and welcoming terror attacks...we'll still be cheering them on.

There is nowhere left on earth to run to.

Posted by: The Haimster at February 27, 2009 12:26 PM (h71yu)

27 Obama is making the very dangerous assumption that increasing taxes don't affect taxpayer behavior.

I'm so glad we finally elected a "smart" man after 8 years of drooling moron. Or so I'm still told. By people who get a bigger "refund" in April than they had withheld the previous year. *mutter*

Posted by: HeatherRadish at February 27, 2009 12:50 PM (aHoS4)

28 WSJ had a great piece today about how Obama won 52% of those making 200,000 dollars or more annually compared to McCain (46%). Apparently the same demographic voted for Bush (63%) vs Kerry (35%). McCain won among Americans making between 100,000 and 200,000. Obama's support was "like a barbell--bulging among the poorest and the wealthiest at either end of the income spectrum and narrower in the middle." It will be interesting to see how these wealthy voters who elected Obama react to him not only raising their taxes but also reducing their deductions on mortgage interest payments and other tax items, while raising medicare premiums and increasing capital gains taxes. Regardless, of wether or not he loses the support in the upper tax bracket, the narrow middle is going to get squeezed.

Posted by: runningrn at February 27, 2009 01:15 PM (aC/SY)

29 This is redistribution and reparations disguised as stimulus.

Posted by: drjohn at February 27, 2009 03:32 PM (fwL4X)

30 Reagan raised taxes 6 of his 8 years in office

Posted by: Burghman at February 27, 2009 03:43 PM (Hn4yS)

31 Reagan also raised taxes during the 82 recession

Posted by: Burghman at February 27, 2009 03:46 PM (Hn4yS)

32 Reagan raised taxes 6 of his 8 years in office Reagan also raised taxes during the 82 recession

and? Are you trying to make some point?

Posted by: toby928 at February 27, 2009 03:47 PM (PD1tk)

Yep.....after 5 trillion in new debt under Bush/Cheney somebody's taxes had to go up.

The good news is that history shows that raisng taxes doesn't hurt economic growth

Posted by: Burghman at February 27, 2009 03:52 PM (Hn4yS)

34 The good news is that history shows that raisng taxes doesn't hurt economic growth

It depends on which taxes are raised.

Posted by: toby928 at February 27, 2009 04:05 PM (PD1tk)

35 Could someone explain to me how the stimulus will help my husband and I? We are retired with a fixed income. What are we getting out of all this crap? I heard that SS recipients will receive $250. one time...wow, that certainly will help my increased property taxes.

Posted by: Sandy Norris at February 27, 2009 06:01 PM (3W5xK)

36 Obama is making the very dangerous assumption that increasing taxes don't affect taxpayer behavior.

Bush v1.0 tried that shit with the "luxury tax" on boats and expensive cars. All it did was drive the marine sales/support industry in south FL into a coma for a decade as the "rich" took their business elsewhere and bought their shit in the Bahamas, the Cayman's, etc. Thousands were put out of work and "the rich" were only slightly inconvenienced working around that suicidal tax.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at February 27, 2009 07:37 PM (Ygf78)

37 The deficit was going down under President Bush. Its skyrocketed since the Democrats took over, and its doubling again under President Obama. But hey, hit Bush a few more times. Better that than facing the facts. I can wait: eventually you'll stop hitting the little straw man and have to turn to face the problem.

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Posted by: aaabs at February 28, 2009 07:39 AM (Oz1Ts)

The supposed deficit reduction under Bush was an accounting trick and did not reflect the actual numbers. They were using social security surpluses to offset his spending making the deficit appear to be going down.

5 trillion in new debt under Bush / Cheney

Posted by: Burghman at February 28, 2009 11:24 AM (Hn4yS)

40 DJIA end of session on January 4th 2007, the start of the Democratically controlled 110th Congress: 12,800.18
National unemployment rate for December 2006: 4.5%
2006 Federal Budget Deficit: $247.7 billion
Average Monthly GDP growth for 2006: 3.4%

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