1 In counterinsurgency, the population is the strategic objective. So to some extent, I'd have to agree that given a choice of providing security to a population center or chasing people in the hinterlands, you protect the population. How they go about that, well, the devil is in the details. There's just no way to secure the population, even if we deployed an additional 30k troops. It is a huge country, and the population is far more spread out over small communities than in Iraq. So you might end up with each village having a small outpost that can defend itself, but never has enough strength to defend the village.

Another option is to pull back, secure the larger population centers, and abandon smaller communities to the tender mercies of the insurgents. Once you have achieved security in the main population centers, then you can begin to go out and secure outlying areas one by one.

Truth be told, I just don't know what approach will work best in A-stan.

2

"Instead of using U.S. forces primarily to kill and capture insurgents, the strategy review is likely to recommend placing more emphasis on protecting the Afghan population, several officials said."

Markie Marxist sez:  "Cool!  Since there's no pulling out, at least in the short term, the best thing we can do is be as nice as we can to our Marxist/warrior/hero/Jihadi allies.  That means not going around looking to kill them, but letting them kill American soldiers whenever and wherever they please.  The best defense is a good offense, so we don't want any offense at all.  Our Jihadi allies will be very happy to hear that the heat is off them.  They'll have a great opportunity to rest, recuperate, recruit, train, rearm, and get ready to take the fight to the enemy.  Us." 

 

3

  Sure, you want to protect the population as much as possible, but not at the expense of offensive operations.  An unharrassed enemy is one that can devote more time to killing civilians instead of keeping his own ass alive, so it seems to me that keeping Johnny Jihad on the defensive works as both offensive AND defensive strategy.

  Protect the population as much as you can, but don't stop killing AQ and Taliban troops.

4 I just pray our troops don't become sitting ducks for snipers in the hills.

5

did any one just see the hannity intro? hahah

bring it on motherfuckers!!! lord of the flies!!!!!!!!

let me know when its pc to shoot.

6 Fuck it -

Just rent "The Beast" followed by "Zulu" followed by "Gunga Din" followed by "Charge of the Light Brigade" followed by "The 300" followed by "Beast Master"


.

7

This passive strategy was crap when we used it in Vietnam.

Passive srategy? Hmmm that's not how I remember it when I was there. Unless of course you call setting up ambushes every night and training PF's during the day passive.

8 You forgot "the pre-surge Iraq strategy" in that list of crapola.

And you secure the population by aggressively chasing and killing the bad guys. Keep 'em busy with that whole "survival" thing and they won't have time to kill innocents. That buys time for the political work that's necessary to win.

9

  Robtr, I probably know less about Vietnam than you did before you went there, but I was referring to the defensive operations we tried to do early in the war.  The "strategic hamlets" and programs like that we did when our presence in country was mostly as advisers.

  You're 100% right.  Once American troops got into the action, we kicked the hell out of the VC and NVA on a regular basis.  I should have been more specific with that offhand comment.

10 You forgot "the pre-surge Iraq strategy"
Beat me to the point. When our guys were basically sitting ducks on patrol was when our casualties peaked, and we almost lost through attrition. It wasn't until we went on the offensive in the surge that the tide turned.
I am thinking Osamabama's strategy will be to let our casualties mount, proclaim it unwinnable and withdraw.

11

that motherfucker! he's gonna turn our guys into potted plants unable to do anything but stand there and get killed, god fucking damn it!

i can't fucking believe this shit!

12

somebody get a rope...

did i say that out loud... i did, fuck it

13 Hey! Gi Joe: The Rise of Cobra hits this spring and Gi Joe Resolute hits this summer.

14

"In counterinsurgency, the population is the strategic objective."

Markie Marxist sez:  "Absolutely!  American soldiers should be babysitting villages while waiting for our Jihadi allies to kill them.  They certainly shouldn't be out hunting down and killing our Marxist/warrior/hero/Jihadi's who want to help us Marxists destroy American capitalism and bring down America.  Our allies can't help us if they're dead.  It's just common sense.  I'm glad to see that Comrade Obama is steering things in the right direction."

"Just think, 'What would NPR do?'  I'm sure that my fellow Marxists at NPR would rather have our troops doing some nice babysitting, helping with the domestic chores and getting killed, rather than being out on the battlefields ruthlessly hunting down Jihadi's and enjoying some sport by killing them with various high-powered weapons that really make a mess out of them."

15 I think it would be wrong to predict what will happen, so I will pray instead.

16 @9 No problem, that war get's misunderstood alot.

17 Robtr,

I think he's talking about the ROE that limited operations to only certain area's, and restricted our operations, while we trained NVA who infilitrated ARVN in how to wage war, instead of letting us take and hold area's long enough to weed out the bad guys and promote an independant defense.

Also, Brad, I think you are locked into the big war concept, when the counterinsurgency uses a lot of the aspects of big war strategy, but what you end up doing, is you end up taking property, and you hold it long enough to train a local militia in how to defend themselves, and you arm them.

That way, when you go off chasing bad guys in the hinterlands, if the place you took and held earlier fires at you, you know exactly who the bad guys are.  The ones you left in charge.

It's the "unsafe haven" thing.  Petraeus really didn't do anything special, he just applied it properly.

Of course, there are a lot of thoughts on it, but basicaly, petraeus did the "unsafe haven" thing.

18 Obama would probably pony up the 100 trillion dollars and call it stimulus.

19

We're giving them an awful lot of time to regroup (unfortunately we've been doing that for years).  We may or may not eventually win in Afghanistan, but the way Pakistan is unfolding, that might make an eventual victory moot.  I'm sure the Taliban/Al Qaeda would have no problems whatsoever swapping Afghanistan for Pakistan.  Granted, I don't have military experience, so I'm not saying that my opinion counts for much, but... 

I'll give you another example of passive fighting.  I doubt many people have heard of the Battle of Yarmouk (636 AD).  It was a battle fought between the Byzantines and the Arab Muslims.  Essentially, the Byzantines (the larger force) sat back in a defensive position (which was pretty solid) while waiting for the Muslims to attack they were blocking the approaches into Syria).  Instead of attacking directly ahead like the Byzantines hoped, the Muslims decided to send small groups around their position for about a month to infiltrate.  When the battle actually occurred (which lasted for about a week), the Muslims attacked frontally and along the flanks and in the Byzantine rear.  The Byzantines were eventually forced back and then routed.  The battle cost the Byzantines not only Syria, but enabled the Muslims to push southwards into Egypt and North Africa and eventually into Spain.

Tactics are one thing, but logistics are something else.  The Byzantines had poor lines of communication, which impacted morale in a big way.  Without adequate supply lines, it'll be tough to fight them in Afghanistan (and look at what's happening in Krgyzstan right now). 

From what I have read, sitting back and fighting in the populated areas is probably the worst thing we could do.  Far from protecting Afghan civilians, it'll increase casualties among them and push up resentment at the same time, while doing little military good (I honestly say this not out of concern for the Afghans, but our own troops).  The best thing to do is fight them away from the populated areas.           

20

ITC @ #8:

  I recently re-located an interesting blog post from a couple years ago that argues that our pre-surge strategy was essential in setting the table for the surge.  Without the pre-surge chaos, the surge would never have worked.  I don't know enough to evaluate it's accuracy, but it's an interesting read anyway.

http://tinyurl.com/2qhso2

(guaranteed 100% free of rickroll content)

21 Yeah, that's it. When faced with an insurgency, sit in one place.

(HEADDESK)

It does fit classical leftist ignorance pretty well, though.

The Soviets were bogged down in Afghanistan for years.

We conquered "The Graveyard of Empires" in months

No, Obama is just dying to piss that accomplishment down his leg.

22

Wikedpinto,

I guess that all happened, I served in a CAP and we moved into a village and lived there, trained PF's to defend themselves and ran ambushes every night. We served our whole tour in one village, supplied medical care, defense, helped them with commerce and government.

23 this guy is dangerous, good men are going to die due to his arrogance and stupidity, this is bad, bad, bad...

24 Robtr - thanks for your service to America.  It is unfortunate more people like you weren't given more opportunity to win the war.

25 robtr,

I'm interested in seeing if the Marines take a CAP approach to their deployments to A-stan. And I wonder if you think they should be on year long deployments or stick with the 6-7 month cycle.

26   

One Big  Ass Mistake, America...

 

27 We kinda have a base dedicated to CAX, which includes CAP Operations.

We've talked about this brad.

28 Of course you know more about it in practice than I do, but the basic techniques we helped to develop with our hyperfocus on training, helped to make us (all of us, not just Marines) a lot more willing to adapt tactics, based on the strategic requirements.

29 If we get a sniff that the Commie-in-Chief is getting into target selection ala LBJ, we need to get out the pitchforks and torches.  About a million of us oughta do the trick.  The code word will be "Climb Mt. Ebank".

30 Or you could just quote Sun Tzu...

whoever is first in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle will arrive exhausted.  Therefore the clever combatant imposes his will on the enemy, but does not allow the enemy's will to be imposed on him.

...Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.

31 I'm not sure I want to take orders to Afghanistan if this is going to be our mission.  ITC, I agree with you.  Keep 'em on the run and killing them where they mass is better than waiting for them to come to you.  Always maintain the initiative.

I remember during the election that kept talking about copying the surge in Afghanistan and I had serious issues with that.  1.  You have to have a plan for the opium.  Big time cash crop for farmers and a major source of income for the Taliban to the tune of 8 Billion a year (how's that for stimulus!).  2.  There is NO middle class in Afghanistan like there was in Iraq.  That will be tough to overcome.  3.  The Russians have killed your supply line.  We are losing a major air base in Central Asia and our land route through the Khyber Pass was taken out by the Taliban recently so we can add all the troops we want but it's going to take a lot more airlift to resupply already stretched thin supply lines.  We either cave in on Russian demands with missile defense or we negotiate with Iran for a new southern route (rumored to be in work).

32 Without the pre-surge chaos, the surge would never have worked.

That's certainly a valid viewpoint, but it's based largely on hindsight. No one, and I mean NO ONE was out there saying "why don't we let Iraq fall into chaos, let thousands die, so that we can jump in and save the day at the last instant". Flippant, I know, but it just wasn't being talked about in that way.

Please, you OIF vets correct me if I'm wrong, but pre-surge our forces were withdrawing into the FOBs in order to try reducing contact with the Iraqis, on the assumption that the less they saw of foreign soldiers the less they were inclined to be violent. The power and force vacuum was going to be filled by someone, and since the coalition had conceeded the ground, AQ and the Shiite militias jumped right in.

33

 BumperStickerist is wise.  (@6).  I'd add Blackhawk Down and The Four Feathers (1960's version, not the new stupid PC one) to that list.

Regarding the handling of A-stan, it's a shame we're not bad guys.  It would probably be cheaper/easier to simply gas/nuke each city and village and be done with that place.  Scortch the earth, poison the wells, and leave nothing alive to terrorize us.  It would make a fine example for others to fear.  Frankly, I'm sickened by the thought of good Americans suffering to aid a bunch of dirty muslims who will do nothing but breed new crops of narcotics and terrorists.  Even if we pull this off, in spite of Obie's treasonous disregard for our troops, it will be only a short term solution.  They'll re-talibanize themselves, because that's what muzzies do.

 

34 @25, I don't know anything about afghanistan. That would be a long discussion. CAG/CAP groups had mixed results in Vietnam, it depended on people to people relationships between Marines, PF's and villagers. Some Marines didn't like Vietnamese and alot of Vietnamese didn't like Marines. 6 or 7 months would be AWSOME.

35

robtr, the fact that your unit in Vietnam "ran ambushes every night" made your presence as much offensive as it was defensive. 

I'm afraid that Obama's idea of proper military operations is more along the lines of the Dutch UN "Peacekeeping" contingent stationed in Srebrenica back in '95.

36 Uh, so if Obama is really King Theoden holed
up in Helm's Deep, that means the REALLY nasty looking cannibal Super Orc, that licks the blood off the blade, is who? Helen Thomas?

37 Russ, the CAP program was offensive in that it sought to delink the population from the VC. But the ambush portion was defensive in that it was designed to prevent the VC from attacking the villages and deny them safe passage through an area. Whether an operation is offensive or defensive at the tactical or operational level can be deceiving.

38 I care not one wit what some journo at Politico prints. Predator strikes in Pakistan haven't been curtailed,  newly arrived troops are setting up forward outposts in NW Afghanistan and have already bagged a few Taliban.

Obama is sending 17k more troops to Afghanistan, it may not be the 30k some of the generals want but 17,000 troops is.. 17,000 more troops. Obama seems to be listening to Petreus and that's all we can really hope for right now.

RE:
Patton never got what he wanted.

"Rock Soup"

His supply division stole supplies from the First Army, they redirected fuel to Third Army gas dumps and he commissioned 10,000 white camoflauge cloaks (from a French factory) for Third Army winter operations - and paid for it out of his own bloody pocket.

39 Russ,

Especially now, whenever you are in a defensive posture in a guerilla environment, you establish ambushes, outside of patrol routes, in order to guide the enemy where you want them.

I think Robtr, was saying that as a part of his promise of securing the village we was tasked to secure, it was standard for him to do patrols, recon, offensive, and ambush.

It's common now, don't know how it was back during "The Nam."

40 Wow,
You guys are usually so smart, but have all missed the point.  The Afghan war is the RIGHT war, not that crappy little distraction I played at.  The fascists liberals would've all joined up and been regular Sgt Rocks on the flot, if it wasn't for Iraq.  Now the Man is in charge and gonna fix the REAL problem, so the Starbucks lobbies and Pearl Jam concerts will be emptied as people rush to join the SF or Delta, or the A-team (or whatever they saw on TV).  McKiernan wont know what to do with all the peeps that are heading his way.  His guys (the ones hes been waiting on) will protect the Afghans.  The LGBT Fite'n 69th will take care of pacifying the Shahikot valley.

Oh,
I wasn't supposed to say anything.  lets keep this between us.......

41 In other words, what brad said.

42

Obama should either get the Military what it asks for to win and get out of the way or pull out altogether. If that dumb ass is going to run the war there will be trouble I'm afraid.

43 i'm ex-navy so i don't know infantry tatics but a moving ship is harder to hit than a stationary one and a ship on the attack is actually less likely to be sunk than a ship being attacked

44

Iraq 2004-2006.  Bush tried the same exact bullshit.  It cost us lives of thousands of our best and brightest.

Obama is Bush II, the even dumber and less prepared version.

And I'm sure the Obama DOD ROEs will be even worse than Bush 2004-2006....can't wait for Haditha II myself.

45

Hate to be more of a pessimist than usual, but I think the strategic/political/diplomatic actions taken by the One have already altered the strategic situation in Afghanistan to the point where extra troops and how they are used just won't matter.  Here's why:

1.  Supply routes. The former Soviet republics are a lot more scared of Putin than they are of the One.  I don't think we will be renting more airbases without Putin's say so around there anytime soon.

2. Our main port of supply is Karachi, Pakistan. A country that has gone from a stable US reasonably-friendly dictator (Musharaff) to an utterly corrupt, civilian government that cannot or will not control the ISI and is unable or unwilling to fight the Taliban on their own territory. I really doubt the One will do much to stiffen spines there.

3. Iran has no reason to fear the One, and every reason to try to do in Afghanistan what they did in Iraq: make life as hard as possible for us.

4. Afghanistan has never had a strong central government.  It's always been a collection of tribes that fought each other when there was no one else to fight. However, the Taliban ruled through ruthless terror and drug money.  We cannot protect everyone without a lot more troops than our supply train can sustain, and we will not solve the drug problem anytime soon.

5. Our European allies (and by extension the NATO treaty itself) are irrelevent.  Germany, France, Spain, etc have no will to fight. Our English speaking allies and perhaps some others do, but there is only so much they can do. There will not be a lot of support no matter what.

6. A better strategy starts with the need to secure our supply lines.  If we can't or won't do that then sending more troops is a waste of lives and time. Either we build an air bridge (doubtfull); work out a deal with Russia (likewise) or take a port in Iran or Pakistan, hold it and the routes inward (doable only with a major mobilization and declaration of war - won't happen with the One in charge).

 

 

46 As to the opium poppy problem, why don't we start buying up the crops for later destruction? Especially if we outbid the Taliban. There's several levels of advantage as I see it.

Afghan farmers retain their income. Which buys us some goodwill with the farmers over time.

Reduces the amount of poppy being processed into heroin by the Taliban (and by extension, reduces their drug income).

Gets the Taliban into bidding wars for raw opium that they can't win unless they cheat by getting violent with the farmers. That'll drive a wedge between the Talis and the population.

Constricting the Taliban's drug income means that they have to change to other sources, many of which can be tracked, confiscated or sabotaged.

Most importantly, the Taliban will have to react to us, rather than vice versa.

47 What did bush try conmo?

48   What, all you idiots got a problem with Obama micromanaging the war?  But he's so much SMARTER than all of you dumbass wingnuts.

49

What, all you idiots got a problem with Obama micromanaging the war?  But he's so much SMARTER than all of you dumbass wingnuts.

Yup, he went to Harvard or something.

50 LEASE!?   Yeah the land was leased, we built the base!

The weakness of the one, gave russia the balls to take on debt to secure a solid strategic advantange, bought and built with our fucking money!

Thanks Obama!

51 BoP is right that a lot of the strategy we pursue will be dictated by how secure our supply lines there are. They've been rather tenuous at best, and are shakier now than ever. Dunno how that's gonna play out.

52

Posted by: CDR M at February 17, 2009 09:46 PM (TJoU6)

I'd actually be A OK with letting Iran and Russia just have Afghanistan.  I'm not sure Putin is interested, but he's certainly pressuring Kyrgystan to shut down Manas. 

Yeah, I know that's not realistic.

53

  #45:

Build an air bridge?  Been there.  Done that.  Bought the t-shirt.

Unfortunately, the Soviet prison guards confiscated the shirt.

54 Eisenhower and Bradly wouldn't give Patton everything he wished for and they were both career military men but you guys demand 100% compliance from Obama?

 wow.

55 A thing that drives me into a near murderous rage, is listening to KO and Chris "the tingle" Matthews is when they let RMAC talk shit about war.

That man is a complete and total disgrace, and they invite him in to talk shit about rumsfeld?

Rumsfeld wasn't deconstructing the military, he was doing the best he could with what he had, and his focus wasn't some sort of mathmatical voodoo, it was based on small unit operations, seeing as how we have so few large units anymore thanks to the fucking DEMS!

56 I'm with Mike: where the hell is the great rush of Obamatons enlisting for the "Good War" in Afghanistan they've talked so much about?

That giant sucking sound you hear is that of their collective asshole pukering in dread of actually having to make some of those sacrifices they keep bleating for...

57

xbrad and BoP are right:  Logistics are the key.

I can talk tactics because I'm an amateur.  Logistics are beyond my expertise, and I consider myself to be A LOT smarter than Obama where it comes to military operations...................

Jeebus Christ, we are SO fucked.

58

Eisenhower and Bradly wouldn't give Patton everything he wished for

Patton took what he wanted and called in from Sicily to tell the fuckers where he was.

59

Eisenhower and Bradly wouldn't give Patton everything he wished for and they were both career military men but you guys demand 100% compliance from Obama?

 wow.

Posted by: 13times at February 17, 2009 10:12 PM (f03SY)

  Well, when you consider the fact that the guys who are ASKING Obama for the extra troops are the modern equivalents of Eisenhower & Bradley, then it all makes sense.  Eisenhower and Bradley weren't as rah-rah go-go as Patton was, but they sure as hell weren't wallflowers who wanted to sit on the Normandy beachhead & wait for Hitler to die of syphilis or old age.

 

60 You know who else didn't get everything he wanted?

MacArthur, and he got fired.

61 Know what Johnson and RMac did when they didn't have the numbers they wanted?

They drafted retards.

62 Know what Obama did, when he didn't know how to make people feel better about the economy, or anything about the economy?

He borrowed 1/2 of the average annual budget over the last 10 years.  You know, the evil evil budgetary black hole bush created?

and Obama doesn't haven' any connection to this?

63 47 What did bush try conmo?

Posted by: Wickedpinto at February 17, 2009 10:07 PM (ul7te)

Eh, kinda seemed like he hadn't much of a clue there for a couple of years.  I heard a lot of crap about "hearts and minds" and "stay the course" while things spiralled out of control.  I still remember the day my husband came home from a big speech the COS gave in early 2006 where he announced that the USAF was going to cut 40,000 active duty troops over the next fiscal year....with $50,000 + separation bonuses for pilots in selected years.  It was just the icing on the cake for me when my husband was one year outside of the range to take that sweet deal.

Clueless....I just had bile in my throat through the entire election season of 2006 when GOPers were running around saying how they supported the troops/war effort/ blah blah blah.  Yeah, by slashing the budget while we are losing people to hostile fire in an increasingly chaotic war?

sorry....Obama's a disaster, and I do just want to get our people out of Afghanistan.  Idiot Commanders in Chief put my husband and our friends in a hell of a lot of danger.  Yeah, it's already a dangerous job.  sigh

64

MacArthur, and he got fired.

Yeah but nuking Russia was alittle extreme.

65 42 Exactly.

I've read lots of literature about Afghanistan, but am not sure what the best option is. It seems that, if we dedicate ourselves to this mission, we may be there for several decades. If Obama is not dedicated, then we should pull out now.

Winning is going to be much more difficult without a more stable Pakistan. Also, Obama needs to keep Putin in check so that he doesn't bribe any more of our 'allies'.

My great hope is that Obama lets Gates, Petraeus, & our soldiers do their jobs. So far, I've not seen much of that.
 

66 'pinto, they didn't draft the 'tards, they let 100k per year enlist. And once they were in, you just couldn't get rid of them. I had one who ended up as my 1SG in '89. Unbelievably stupid. And not surprisingly, the worst company I'd ever been in.

67 Shoey, too bad you aren't still in the Navy, otherwise you would probably become savvy on infantry tactics and other ground pounder skills of the trade.  Dirt Navy is here for awhile.

68 Nuke China.

69 From orbit right??

70

"100% compliance from Obama?"

way i see it, compliance doesn't enter into it, if we're gonna have units in the field they have to be given the ability to move and attack, winning a war without moving or attacking just isn't gonna happen, ppl are just gonna die for no reason... and they call Bush a monster, makes my head hurt

71 Also, regarding the surge in Iraq, Bush wanted a surge there much earlier, but certain individuals w/in the Pentagon refused to commit (Bob Woodward, The War Within).

72

And yeah, Clinton and Somalia on a larger scale ... that's what I could see Obama doing in Afghanistan.  Every time somebody tried to say that Obama wouldn't be able to withdraw our troops, so he'd be just fine as CiC, I would counter with Clinton and Blackhawk Down.

61 Know what Johnson and RMac did when they didn't have the numbers they wanted?

They drafted retards.

Posted by: Wickedpinto at February 17, 2009 10:21 PM (ul7te)

And a hell of a lot of really wonderful young guys too, and those wonderful young guys had to serve side by side with the retards.  My guess is that the brave and honorable paid an extremely high price for that.

I have a son who will be draft age soon....

 

73 Well, I think you got my point brad.

Had a Master Guns (he was a bit of a lunatic) who would go off on a diatribe about Mac's 100K, "That's Not Me, and That's Not My Corps, and It's Not You Either!!!"

The military accepts that they don't get what they want (and patton was more pissy about not having command, and all the european theatre, and Nimitz and Smith combined were a lot more reasonable about not getting their way than Mac and his formosa invasion of 1.2 million.  Mac had Obama's fucking ego, should have been fired from the pacific land forces position before he opened his mouth (though he was right) about china during Korea.)

74 re: logistics....

thats why iraq was an important war.  it distracted and depleted the swamp of many AQ-types.  We chose the battlefield because afghanistan is a near impossible war due to logistics.  As I was eluding to in my earlier post, it is basic battlefield tactics to choose the location of conflict.  It was in that case, and it is within Afghanistan: seek & destroy.  Part of getting iraq secured and largely self-defending is to transfer the experienced and elite forces to afghanistan to work with the villages and root out the terrorists from the countryside.  To use a sports metaphor like russ, in wrestling, the object is to get the opponent off balance so you can exert your will; and you dont let them regain their footing.

For those concerned about supply lines: One of the great things the Bush admin has done has been the deepening ties established with India.  India has good relations with the govt of afghanistan and can also use Iran as a supply route into Afghanistan.  The regional powers are torn b/c they really want to see the US lose, but they also do not want chaos on their border.  Russia doesnt care, they like the idea of chaos.  Putin laughs at Obama but feared getting mushroom-stamped by darth cheney.  If Obama wasnt such a lil bitch then we would have the northern route as a supply line as well.  pakistan is messy; feinstein fucked that.

75 Shoey, it isn't quite that cut and dried. No one is saying they can't go outside the wire. It's a matter of where they go and what they focus on while they are out there. And IIRC, it was ADM Mullens, the CJCS who just recently brought up the topic of diminishing returns where we're killing a lot of bad guys, but whacking enough innocents as collateral damage that it isn't very profitable to keep doing business that way.

76 No Need for a draft, and if they institute a draft, they will bankrupt the nation even faster than they currently intend to.

I wonder if Beria had a special protege' who's fucking some major dem's.

77 I wonder if it will be a story tomorrow that Obama and Biden, after ragging on CEO's endlessly about private jet usage, jet to Denver SEPARATELY on two huge jets to sign the bill there, even though it was completely unnecessary spending.

How about the global warming angle?

This is what a real press core would be doing......

78 CDR, I mean that Mac wanted to nuke china, not russia.

79 LOL  well, I thought the suggestion to nuke China was a little tangential, but hey, why not?

80

but he's gearing up to take control of evrything , basically it's gonna end up being something like this "we're under enemy fire, what are our orders?"

"hang on while i get washington on the line"

at least that's my greatest fear...

81 Chosen, was a Chinese American battle, and Truman lost it.

82

  So, wicked......

We're 80 posts into a military discussion, and nary a word on the tactical superiority of longbows.

What's up with that?

83 If we see a sudden spate of retirements of senior officers, we'll know for sure that we're well and truly fucked.  That'll be the early warning.

84 Cuz this is a real discussion russ, not a sarcastic game based on a fucked up premise generated organicly in a post that was based on Ace wanting to whine about something and drag everyone else into his own momentary self pitty.

85

Eric, count on it.  And count on a drop in reinlistments and a spike in company and field grade officers leaving when their commitments are up, even in a crap economy.

Military people ain't as dumb as Jon Cary wishes they were, and they know the American voters just stabbed them in the back. 

86 OT: Iran says discussions about its' nuclear ambitions are closed @ http://tinyurl.com/c6r6m3.I

87

  Well, I for one think it would be really cool to issue one longbow per platoon.  Sort of a "fuck you, Johnny Jihad;  we'll beat your 7th century goat-loving ass with some modern 13th century technology".

  You could issue the longbow to each platoon's JAG officer.  You know, the one that President Obama is going to have accompany each platoon into the field to insure that the Miranda rights of captured enemy combatants are respected?

88 There is a passive strategy that might work in A-stan:  Take the poppy fields, make the them come and get it.

89   Oh yeah, I realize that most of the fighting occurs at the squad level; but do you know how many lawyers you'd need to have if you assigned one to each squad?  It'll be ACORN volunteers serving as paralegals at the squad level, and they'll report to the platoon JAG officer.

90

As long as Pakistan gets to be Cambodia, we got big time troubles.  I'm really starting to think that Pakistan may need to be neutralized in order for Afghanistan to succeed.  Or neutralize Iran. 

Neither of which is going to happen on Obama's watch.

91 HAH!  on the JAG thing.

Modern warfare is too rapid and longbows don't work, even a top end compound won't work in modern warfare.

92

  If we occupy the poppy fields, won't the farmers just plant poppies in the fields we're NOT occupying at the time?  It's not as if opium poppies can only grow on 2 or 3% of the soil over there.

  We'd be able to cut down their supply of opium, but I can't believe that we'll ever shut it off completely.  Hell, we can't even do that inside our own border - so I don't hold out much hope for doing it halfway around the globe.

93 though instead of double tatting POW's that can't be carried (don't act like it doesn't happen) you can summarily judge them and hit them with arrows.

94 46,  There is actually a law on the books that prevents the DEA from buying narcotics in the manner you describe, not sure if it applies to military.  They would just take the money and grow more.

95 Maybe we should just rain gold down on the Afghan chieftains.  Seriously, a few billion dollars per year is just a rounding error in the stimulus.

96

i got an idea, let's send the ACORN ppl to A-stan, they can shout this at the Talibs:     

You must submit to the Unicorn Collective!

The Ivy League Masters of the Universe command it!

oughta work out ok one way or the other, lol 

 

97 First off ITC is right, we should be buying up every gram of drugs we can in Astan. We are paying these people anyway so we should at least get something out of it.

Second, I think sitting in and around the large towns and cities could work in Astan, just let them hit us for a bit and trace the routes to their holes. The problem with this in Iraq was that the problems were all in the cities and towns. It's just the opposite in Astan. Those fuckers can live off the land and in the hills forever in Astan. Let em come in and stomp the ants all the way back to their nest then move on to the next nest. Chasing ants through the field just tires you out. It's not large numbers we need there, but it couldn't hurt. We just need enough to provide the ability to have a large retiltory strike ready at a moments notice. there's a lot of ants but it can be done and they can't help but try to bite, it's what they live for.

98

To win afghanistan

A surge isnt the answer, unless it is part of a distraction

1) Divide Pakistan and Afghani. Critical to eliminate the guerilla safe haven and re-supply system.

2) Visibly remove corruption from the Afghani government. Get clerics to support these reforms. Corruption is the biggest rallying cry of insurgents

3) Find and prop up several political parties. Coax a strong leader to take over Afghani, difficult on that one. Currently the Deim problem.

4) Broker oil/gas pipelines through afghani, and offer dividends for residents. 

Is the Farm able to do the above yet?

 

Obama's most probable non-winner exit strategy: break Afghani into 3 countries. Convince Taliban to take one country. Send the most anti-Obama troops there as limp wrist blue helmets to take bullets.

Afghanistan has a long history of not being conquered, a history that must not be forgotten. Russia had learned that lesson in 1979-81. Unless we find a way to accomplish our goals (Al-quida, Taliban, OsamaB) then the democrats have created another Vietnam.

 

99

"Modern warfare is too rapid and longbows don't work"

  Well, what the hell do you know about warfare anyway?  You only SERVED in the Marine Corps.  Obviously, you've never seen "Rambo, First Blood Part II".  Dude, that compound bow he used was SWEEEEEEEET!  And, based on the size of the explosions, our military has figured out a way to stabilize an arrow carrying 16 ounce charges of C4.  That was back in '85; can you imagine how much C4 modern military arrows could carry?

100 Make the arrows with some Pig tallow and they might have an impact.

101 caltrops

102 I doubt Politico's neutrality.

103

I kinda sorta had a little hope when the "Obama to reconsider the Afghanistan surge" story came out.  I'm not sure we have a real good reason to stick around the place....it would take a massive, agressive force to really change a lot over there, and there isn't the money or the will to commit to that right now. 

We deposed the Taliban for the most part, and, well...

Leaving might take some jihadi pressure off the new guy in Pakistan too.  I don't know if he's worth a warm bucket of piss, but I'm not sure that it's not worth it to give him a chance to gain some popularity with his people by letting him "negotiate" our departure.

104 I was a geek marine, I just read a lot, and volunteered for a lot of training and stuff.

105 Russ, poppy will grow just about anywhere -- you occupy to prevent the harvest not the planting / growth.  So you only have to hold the fields for a relatively short period of time and they are hard to hide. 

If the Taliban want the folding green, then they have to secure the fields for significant periods of time. That brings them to pre-determined battlefields (time and space) that they can't run from.  Trying to passively protect the whole population forces us to surrender the initiative.

Off-season we search and destroy into Pakistan.

106 Toby, true fact, we actually use caltrops against enemy vehicles.

I think that tacking ground is against the bullshit stupid retarded laws of war for infantry unites.

107

I think sending in a massive ACORN corps to "organize" the "neighborhoods" is a brilliant suggestion.  Let them do it without military protection though.  They don't need help from scary guys with big guns anyway, right?

give peace (and human shields) a chance

108

Jean, so your strategy would look a lot like what the Iowa National Guard does when they spot pot fields in the fall?  An old co-worker of mine right after college was a helicopter mechanic with the National Guard unit based out of Boone.  He always said that marijuana plants stay green while corn & bean plants start to turn brown in the fall.  The small plots of pot hidden in the middle of a bean/corn field start to stand out like a turd in a punchbowl come mid-September.  They'd pinpoint the fields from the air, then have DCI or local authorities monitor the crop & grab whoever comes to harvest the goods.

  Or would you even need to hold the fields at all?  I would think that incendiaries would do quite a job on opium plants.  Not that you'd burn them out from the air, but maybe you could land an "eradication force" at each field to burn them down & move on to the next one?

  Interesting idea.

109

  Sending in ACORN to organize the Taliban could backfire.  You might just end up swelling the ranks of AQ and the Taliban.

  Hey, if they believe in an inexperienced "community organizer", how much of a stretch would it be to turn them to follow a 6'7" Saudi charismatic?

110

I think that tacking ground is against the bullshit stupid retarded laws of war for infantry unites.

Really?  I would think that claymores or bouncing bettys would be right out then.

111

With all due respect Russ, (and I do mean respect, lived in Iowa for 14 years, great folks), leave the war-gaming posts to military types.

Any analogy to warfare, viz., football, trivializes the men and their mission, and though I'm sure you didn't mean to do this, all you have done is distract from the mission.

Let the warriors due what they are trained to do, support their commanders, and fight the stupid fucking politicians who impede that mission.

Sure we all enjoy flaming on Obama's incompetence; I for one favor a close encounter with "the long".

I will continue to pray each and every day for "our troops"

112 The only real problem with Jean's idea is that you've then managed to completely piss off the population, which is counter to the whole idea.

113 Russ, similar - but you don't care about the farmers.  It's the upstream guys who you need to hurt. 

As the field mature, you increase your presence and chase off the farmers.  If the upstream narcos/Taliban/whoever want that harvest, then they need to enter in force and push us off of it, then hold it for the farmers to do their thing.  Instant initiative swing, they come down out of the hills and WHAMO! as Bugs would say.

BTW I'm not talking about individual fields - I'm talking about entire valleys.

Eradication takes a lot of effort.  Just let the shit rot.  We would need to get the farmers some monetary love, but it's not like we don't know how to pay farmers.

114

I see we have a lot of ex-military here.  Whats the end point, and what do we have to do so we can leave.  Or are we there forever, or until we get tired.  History is against us.  The best thing to come from this is that we are killing and disrupting a bunch of Jihadis, and I think that is the best we can hope for.  For Christ's sake, they herd goats in Kabul streets and have open sewers to deliver the "night soil" to fertilize their fields, which they work by hand.  Lets not set the bar to high

115 I don't think the Taliban or AQ is directly involved in growing or picking the poppies. It's done by the local tribes. The Taliban make money as middlemen, buying the harvested opium and reselling it. I doubt they ever go near the fields.
The locals go through them because their fields would be destroyed if they don't and then they have nothing. We should buy up the product. If the Taliban destroy the fields we pay them something anyway. Take away any incentive for the producers to deal with the bad guys.

116 #32. Pre-surge There was a lot of FOB sitting. Go on a mission come back to the FOB. I was leaving as the surge was beginning, and had many buddies serve during the surge. There was a Styker Brigade, the 173rd out of Alaska that was extended for four months. They were the either the ones building the foundation for the surge, or part of many that were. They would go into Baghdad, running ops around the clock day after day. I would watch the Stykers leave and replace other units like clockwork, I would also watch them shoot flairs into the Air at night when conducting night ops.

One of my fiends helped rebuild the Iraqi Police force after it was found too corupt, and full of mahdi death squads, he would go from various poilice station to various police station and assist them with operations and training. Another friend would sit out in an outpost and conduct operations from that outpost around the local area.

I Have read many books on COIN and it seems to me that the best option in Iraq was to become pragmatic like we did, and help the people police their own area's with our guidence-they know who is who. We also set up outposts in various neighborhoods to hold the ground we won, and to ensure no one would come back. With the pragmatic approch, we also kept in leaders who were shady but could get the job done and were monitored by our forces. This helped lead to stability so the pols could work on getting something rolling, and thus progress could happen. When people are happy, and see that things are changing, things get dramatically better. I have a friends there now, and they sound bored with nothing to do, but babysit. My terp, whom I still keep in contact with, says it is much better over there than it was when I left.

The thing about Afghanistan is it is very different than Iraq. One is the soviets tried to hold the Urban population centers, but lost becasue they couldn't or didn't hold the rural areas, which was more sympathtic to the Jihadists cause.

Two: the jihadists were able to use Pakistan as a base to assemble fighters, logistics, and money to conduct operations in Afghanistan.
Three: their treatment of the Afghan people
Four: the ability for the enemy to conduct small, yet complex ambushes.
Five: the mountains as an area for them to hideout and regroup.
Those are some of the reasons why they lost.

Our forces face some of the simmilar problems within Afghanistan. I think that were are going to need many more troops than what is called on, so that we can secure both the urban and rural areas. This also gives us both offensive and defensive abilities. We need to recognize that this is going to be a long, long war, and that it is going to take much commitment by our peoples, pols, and the president. We need to pe pragmatic in our thinking, and understand our enemy.
We need to gain the ability, either overtly or covertly, go into Pakistan, specifically the northwestern territories and Warziristan, to fight AQ and the taliban. This is because they are using as an area to stage, regroup and conduct operations within Afghanistan. They are also using intermarriage to trust, and hold over the local populations. Capitulation to these evil vile men will only bring trouble, as Pakistan will soon find out. We are going ot have to let them farm poppies until a viable solution is found to this problem because it is a way of life for many, and alienation will only bring contempt. We need to get back our line of supply back up to functioning capacity, so that we can ensure that we can even operate over there.

There are other things that we must do, but I am tired of typing. If anyone wants to add or correct some thing, feel free to do so. This is just my advice, and thoughts on the situation we find in Afghanistan. I have two buddies over there, and it sounds like things are getting chaotic, yet I don't have enough info to give current updates. When I get some, I'll let you all know what is up.

Books to look at (some of which I haven't read):
The Bear went over the mountain: soviet combat tactics in Afghanistan
Tactics of the Crescent Moon; Militant Muslim Combat Methods
Militant Tricks: Battlefield ruses of the Islamic Insurgent
Taliban: Militant Islam, Oil, and the Fundamentalism in Central Asia
Jihad: The Trail of political islam (book covers the roots)

Feel free to add more.

117 Brad, the whole dance in A-stan is how to transform the economy, while defeating an insurgency that has external support.  A lot of people in A-stan do not benefit from the narco trade, in fact large ethnic groups hate the groups that do. 

How much Taliban activity do you see up in the Tajik areas?  Little drugs, no easy access to Pakistan or Iran = relative calm.  Do you think the Tajiks like watching the Baluchis and Pashtuns make lots of narco cash, while screwing up the currency exchange rates so the Tajiks can't buy goods (actually more rifles, but thats the way it is over there). 

Point is, you won't piss off the whole country just the entrenched elites in the narco provinces who benefit from the trade.  The farmers get screwed anyhow so they won't really care, give them enough hard currency to pay off their opium debt without selling a daughter or two and they will be happy.

118

god how i hate to say this, but i don't see how we can stablize A-stan without somehow clearing out or neutralizing the taliban and AQ's in Paki first

119 agent orange (there is proof that the money hole that is bullshit environmental bullshit is complete bullshit.) My Old man bitches about how he was exposed to agent orange "Everyone thinks vietnam was green with forests, I saw a dead yellow brown world everywhere I went." Dad is 60, had a mild heart attack, then a more significant, and is married to an evil whore who would give me a heart attack at 33 if I wasn't allowed to strangle her with my bare hands, and he's married to her. His diet is shit, he has about 40 years of history of smoking, but he had a fucking heart attack because of Agent Orange? Well, fuck it, it works for the VA. Dad's also a fucking gamer of systems, I forgive him his whore wife a lot more than I do his willingness to game systems.

120 Really?  I would think that claymores or bouncing bettys would be right out then.

I said they were bullshit and retarded.

I don't think we are allowed to use tripwire claymores, and we don't use "bouncing betty's"  you really need to cut back on the shitty hollywood tactical stuff.

We use area denial mines, almost exclusively.  we almost never use anti-armor mines, cuz noone has a modern army anymore.

121 Shoey, I worry more about Pakistan imploding.  Then WTF do we do.

122 People seem to forget that the Russians failed so miserably in Astan because we were supplying their enemy to the tune of 2-3 billion a year, much of it in decent weaponry. That is not the case now. Russia is not going to help us in any way that's for sure but they aren't going to give anything away either and what they do have to sell is mostly shit.

123 If Pakistan implodes they will go to war with India. If that happens then Astan becomes a footnote or a pockmark if it goes nuclear.

124 if it implodes we allow the Indians to go in and sieze control of the missile silo's and we go after the Taliban and AQ, at least that's what we'd do if we really wanted to put and end to things

125 oh yeah, hopefully the silo's can be seized before the Paki's light a nuke off

126

#116 josh

Read you five by five.

Thanks for your well reasoned, competently expressed thoughts.

Tell your two compadres in Afghanistan to keep low. We will look after their families, and we'll damn sure fight just as hard for them when they come back home.

Well done soldier, God Bless.

127 Mines have a place in Korea and the Fulda Gap (Lake Fulda anyone : )), but not on a dispersed battlefield like A-stan.  I believe we a going to see a new generation of robotic defenses replace mines.

These will be smart auto mortars that fire based on sensor input and remote command authorization.  2-5 years out, bank on it.  Positives: Wide area denial, no demil, easy to emplace, no need to cover with fire or overwatch, less manpower, etc. Negatives: No nice explosives for the peasent warriors to repurpose against you.

128 Russ, currently the US reserves the right to use M16A2 "Bouncing Betty" anti-personnel mines (and others) mostly because of the DMZ in Korea. But the US also declined to sign the ban on land mines because of the restrictions it would place on field artillery scatterable minefields.

The Claymore is command detonated, and as such is not a mine per the treaty/ban. Current US policy is that it may not be used in a non-command detonation mode.

129 Shoey it wouldn't matter. If India went in then all of Paki would rise against them. It would be all out war. The Indians would have to kill tens of thousands to hold those silos.  It would just be a matter of time till the nukes went off.

It's more likely that if Paki implodes the Iranians would rush in. Iran would never reign in the hardliners so with free reign they would go at India. They are spoiling for it.

130

Blue Helmets for everyone?

You don't see this coming?? President Unicorn would hand over the sovereignty of this nation at the drop of a hat.

131

Yo Joe!

132

thanks josh,

that was lot of good info, best of luck to you and your friends

133 we can't let Iran get nukes, they'll use them

134   Thanks, brad, but it wasn't me. 

135 Russ, toby, same shit.

136 Rocks, the Russians failed in A-Stan because their Army was a hollow shell and their NCO's sucked.  The money we poured in just made it sting a little harder.

A-stan is probably one of the worst places we could chose to fight a war, but we can win.  My last trip over (about 6 months ago) the biggest concern was Pakistan disintegrating along ethnic lines, now the guys are worried the Washington might go soft.  But given status-quo in Pakistan and no crazy shit out of Washington, we will win.  With a win being defined as:  No narco-state, key Taliban leadership dead, and AQ moves out to Pakistan or Yemen. 

We have to watch out for the media moving the goal posts and making every Afghan that has a rifle and a conservtive religious outlook into a "Taliban." A-stan is never going to be Dubai or Lebanon.

137 if the Paki gov breaks down, someone has to get those nukes and it has to be a stable country

138

Frankly,

 

I think Obama has already successfully LOST this war.

 

FIRST, The Russkies are pressuring their central Asia neighbors to shut our bases- our response? Obama gets tired of the White House, goes and reads books to kids (hey, it had been almost 10 days...)

SECOND- Diane Fienstein(D-CA) Takes a quick moment out of her busy schedule steering of steering Gov't contarts for military construction projects to her husband's Company to  actually show up to a hearing and expose a secret op we running that was integeral to our success in the region.

For Closers, I fully expect this administration to order the mass suicide (ala Jonestown) of the Soldiers already there, to be followed by the koolaid party of the 10,000 or so of the soldiers we are sending in their wake,...

 

That'll show 'em....

 

 

139 a country that already has nukes, don't even care which country

140 Jesus, shoey.  Be careful what you wish for.  Imagine all Pakistan's nukes in the hands of ....... Mayor Ray Nagin & the New Orleans Police Department.

141 Shoey, Pakistan won't go down in a way that the nukes are threatened.  Pakistand will disintegrate by completely losing control over the NW and NE, Baluchistan walking, and the urban cores rocked with tribal and religous violence.  The military will turtle up, protect both the nucs and their own assets.

142 Hammer?

Whats the end point, and what do we have to do so we can leave.

What do you know of strategy?

You know what Iraq and Afghanistan have in common?

PRIME STRATEGIC PROPERTY!!!

Why should we be in germany supporting a modern western nation that can support itself, and that we can supply reasonably?

We can give the Germans our bases without worrying about them being taken just when we need them as we act to defend Germany.  Germany can (according to Germany and all of the other EU "allies") defend themselves, they don't need the US hegemony telling them what to do.

And since our enemies are within easy reach of a dual basing of Afganistan and Iraq, why waste our time with germany and france and others?

Fuck, Iraq, makes Turkey obsolete as a defensive station.

Why surrender our interests, just because a bunch of pussies don't like the idea of being disliked?

You know who hated me in japan?  Japanese men.

FUCK them, build a military and take care of yourself? and we will leave.   What?  You can't and won't, and you need us there? then fuck you, and now if you excuse me I'm gonna put my dick in your daughter.

Same with South Korea, same with the philipines, we got bored with the unwillingness of the philipines to prosecute people who attacked US servicemembers (we didn't give a fuck about the government, we got tired of the kidnappings and murders)  So we left, and then the socialist president said "you should leave" even though we already said we were leaving.

Places that have US bases, are REALLY TOUGH, until there are repercussions.

143 It will be interesting to watch how the MSM handles the "surge" in Afghanistan. In their souls they are against it but any failure now is on Obama's hands completely. Does he, and the MSM with him, want  the public to see them lose a war after we have so clearly won in Iraq? It's not like they can claim it's all futile now.

144

#140

indeed

145 you're probably right Jean, i'll keep my fingers crossed...

146

  I think Jean's right about Pakistan's demise.  It'll hopefully be more like the fall of the Soviet Union than the fall of the Shah in Iran or the fall of Ceaucescu in Romania.

  Not that there won't be massive rioting & bombings during the fall, but the guys with all the launch codes are ruthless enough to order their troops to start using live ammo for riot control long before it all goes completely sideways.

147 What about the uproar in India?

Ugly shit

148

scary world y'all... good night

149 I should make this correction, It was the 172nd Stryker Brigade. I always mess it up.
#143. Yep, Tribal roots go deep there.

#127. There are tons of mines in Afghanistan, the Soviets loved to spread them. I was talking to an old Retired LTC, and he said the Serbs used the same doctrine as the Soviets, which was to spread mines around, especially when they were leaving. It's Kind of a Fuck you to the people in those countries.

150 When you guys think about Pakistan, (and Turkey) - consider the military as the baddest, richest tribe/party.  They have their own financial interests and will protect their own.  Their loyalty is to the Army, then the Army, then maybe to the concept of Pakistan, then back to the Army.

I would worry less about the Paki nukes, then I would about an Iranians off-loading some hot slag to AQ for mayhem in the West.  Pleasant dreams all, when is Ace feet wet.

151

What the hell.  How about a mega-base in Quetta.  You want flypaper?  I can sell you some flypaper.

Pakis need the money too.

Or Dushanbe, Tajikistan.  That's a lot closer than Manas anyway.  We built the Kyrgyz a nice airport, now maybe it's time for some "foreign development aid" for the Tajiks.

152 Wait...wasn't it Dushanbe where the female USAF major said she got abducted, but the whole story was kinda fishy? 

153 One of the most famous quotes of the Vietnam War was a statement attributed to an unnamed U.S. Air Force Major by AP correspondent Peter Arnett. Writing about the provincial capital, Ben Tre, on February 7, 1968, Arnett said: "'it became necessary to destroy the town to save it,' a U.S. major says."

To this day, "Ben Tre logic" is a common saying for whenever a "logical" conclusion is to destroy something out of the perceived best interests of everyone involved.

154

I wonder if Obama believes he has found a way to quit the battlefield. Right now, our military is harrasing the enemy sucessfully and I believe this is met with relative support from the populace, although Taliban sympathizers would of course disagree with me.
But Obama is now reframing the war. He is now saying sucess will no longer be measured by sucessful kill/capture of the enemy. OUR sucess will now be measured by our ability to gaurd an infinite number of soft targets spread out over an entire nation. Wasn't the main reason Bush advocated taking the war to the Taliban et. al. was because it was likely to be more sucessful than guarding every soft target in the US? Bush efforts to strangle money and leadership resources for A Q were an attempt to cut the source of the problem, like our efforts to harrass the Taliban in A'stan.

So Obama waves a white flag at the Taliban (don't hurt us or the people we guard - we can't stand it!) and the Taliban obliges with assymetrical warfare (it's so easy and cost effective to send suicide bombers into schools if our stated objective is no civilian deaths). Afghani's who were tolerating/appreciating us when our soldiers were winning our stated objective (killing/capturing the enemy) will become angry and scared when we begin to lose at our new stated objective (protecting civilians). Soon fearful and angry Afghani's conclude that the US presence draws the Taliban to kill soft targets and the Afghanis beg/order us to leave. As our precious soldiers lives are lost in greater numbers (because the left has hinted loudly that this is what we fear most), Obama 'gets' to play the merciful master and recall our troops home, both for their protection (because he values the troops so much /sarcasm) and to respect the will of the Afghanis. So Obama gets to be the one who brings the soldiers home while contrasting himself with that 'evil' villain Bush. He reminds the public that the US doesn't 'dictate' to other nations and respectfully withdraws at the behest of the Afghanis. Sigh...hopefully my fears are lame and unfounded because if I am even half right, the innocent die and the worthless 'rise'.

155 My guess is that the 17,000 additional troops are going in to make sure that the elections come off as smoothly as possible, and then we're going to declare victory and come home.

156 Obama needs to keep Putin in check...

Ha.
Ha ha.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!

...eh.

157 Completely off topic, but it is nice to see the most open and transparent administration at work.

158 Killing is icky.

I thought it was pretty funny that Poky-ston made a deal with the Taliban the day after the new president there told 60 Minutes he was a real terror fighter. Those Taliban reps on the NYT front page look like they could, eat OBambi for breakfast.

159 @ 7 This passive strategy was crap when we used it in Vietnam.

"Passive srategy? Hmmm that's not how I remember it when I was there. Unless of course you call setting up ambushes every night and training PF's during the day passive."

Robtr, I took the comment to mean "passive" in the larger sense as in defensive. at the time we possessed the ability to run the nva northward the fuck out of country right into south china, we didn't...passive. 

160 I'm usually in agreement with this website, but you're wrong here.  We're not sitting back and waiting for the enemy to come to use.  We're going after the center of gravity in an insurgency: the population.  This is precisely what turned around Iraq.  It is classic counterinsurgency that has worked for the US (when used - which isn't often) since Philippines in the late 19th century.  You protect the population, they turn against the insurgents and tell you where to find them.  This is exactly what the Anbar Awakening was.

That does not mean it discounts military prowess.  The only way the people will turn their support to you is if you show them you can beat the insurgents.

161 Dan, see the very first comment on the thread.

162 In fairness, the strategy of the Surge was both active and did NOT include killing the enemy as an attrition solution.

Instead, Petraeus sought to win control (oil spot strategy) of an area one after another (engage the enemy in turns, or when you have concentrated your forces and he is dispersed). This is basic strategy 101, employed by Alexander, Caesar, Napoleon, Wellington, Sherman, Grant, Ike and Ridgeway.

Petraeus sought to win control by building alliances with locals who were sick of AQ and threatened by it's power. They were not freedom-loving patriots who longed for democracy, but were allies local to the area who with concentrated US troops (who did indeed take significant casualties) could be expected to rout in totality the enemy when engaged systematically.

If anyone has read Caesar's Commentaries will not find anything new here. Defeat in detail is as old as that, if not older. Petraeus to a startling degree, simply replicated the tried and true method of reducing one regional stronghold after another by combining the expeditionary force with locals. This was by the way how General Miles defeated Geronimo.

Conceptually this approach COULD work in Afghanistan. We have local allies who hate the Pushtun tribes who make up the Taliban (and their AQ allies). With enough supplies (always an open question) we can find local allies in many areas who hate/fear the Taliban enough to defeat them. By killing them where they are.

The problems are: the Taliban have a safe haven in Pakistan, under a nuclear umbrella. They have the backing of the Pushtun majority in provinces adacent to the Pakistani border. We have major problems with supply. The Pushtun majority of Pakistan is actively fighting us, PC requires us not to recognize this fact as with Iran in Iraq. It's notable that most of the action in the Surge took place in the West and in Baghdad, well away from Iranian safe havens. While most of the projected action in Afghanistan to secure and hold one by one, areas controlled by the Taliban, will require action right against the Pakistani border.

I agree that action to provide village level security by the US alone, nation-wide, in Afghanistan, a recipe for defeat and stupidity. We do, however, have tribal rivalries and enemies to our advantage. That is the one great weakness of tribal society. Geronimo had Navajo tribesmen, who probably knew well they would be dispensible once he was captured, on his trail, nearly as good trackers as his own Apache. The Navajo did not like the Apache much, considering the Apache raided and killed their people as much as anyone else. The Taliban have a lot of tribal enemies in that way. That is our leverage.

163 Sorry, guys. But protection has to pre-empt hunting & killing.

McNamara & Co thought they could win in Vietnam by killing more VC/NVA than they killed of us and the ARVN. But the Communists could (and did) lose a million dead and keep fighting. U.S. morale broke after 50,000 dead. More importantly, killing Communist troops did not stop them from attacking the Vietnamese population. That meant heavy ongoing civilian casualties which further demoralized the U.S. and the RVN till we gave up.

The success in Iraq came when we spread our men out to provide security for the Iraqi people, after which the Iraqis felt safe enough to stand up against the insurgents - most importantly, by giving information to the Coalition forces.

Population security isn't a passive strategy. But it is less active than just search and destroy. The latter, while emotionally satisfying, is insufficient. If we killed 100 jihadi insurgents every day, it would not destroy the Taliban. They can recruit 36,500 new suckers every year, and keep up their terrorism.  It becomes a futile game of whack-a-mole.

Invading the Taliban base areas in Pakistan would be more effective and active - but we can't do that.

164

#155 Schreiber,

I like your theory better than mine. Now that 0bama has spent the money of the next few generations, he can support our pull back by saying that we can't afford the war. If Republicans oppose him, I can just imagine 0bama simpering :

 "Republicans won't vote for jobs, healthcare, and hope (porkulus) but they will vote to spend money we don't have to get our soldiers killed in a sovereign country that does not need or want our help."

165

It's the "vietnamization" model all over again.

Obama is sending troops into a conflict with no goal, no real strategy.  Didn't he piss and moan (along with every leftistist fucktard in the world) that that was exactly what Bush was doing?

You cannot fight, let alone win a war using poltical strategy and expedience as opposed to military strategy and experience.

This will not end well unless there is some definition given and soon.

It's still a win/winf for the Lefties though, no matter how many Americans are killed.  They'll just "blame Bush" for getting us involved in the first place.  Then  Obama will get all high and mighty about how we "withdrew with honor" when we have to retreat from the country.

Shit, they'll give fucking Obama a Victors parade and put wreaths on his head for crissakes!

166 This is Obama proving he not only has zero interest in global politics or military affairs, but that HE DOESN'T CARE.

He won't do anything that HE has to take responsibility for. He'll promise more troops, not enough to make a difference, but enough to keep the right hoping he'll actually deliver on his promise to engage in Afghanistan, and to keep the left hoping he will engage on his promise to abandon Iraq.

Then when it all goes to crap he'll step back and point both groups at each other.

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168 116, 149. Josh, you beat me to it. The 173rd is the airborne brigade out of Vincenza, Italy.

If you were there around Baghdad when the 172nd Strykers were extended, we were there the same time. Their 4/14 had just moved over to Camp Striker on BIAP where we (2nd Brigade 101st) were about a month or two before we left.

I blame a lot of 2004-2006 on Rumsfeld and on some gutless flag officers. Goddamn field-grades who came up in the Clinton years who got promoted because a lot of the good ones got out.

169

Dan @ #160: 

  My comments aren't directed towards how we're fighting the Taliban/AQ RIGHT NOW.  I'm more concerned with the new direction Obama appears to be leaning towards.  The "UN Peacekeeper" model of trying to protect the local population by digging deeper foxholes and creating heavily defended "safe villages" while the area between safe zones is ceded to the bad guys. 

whiskey @ #162:

  General Miles running down Geronimo using Navajos and disaffected Apaches is a brilliant comparison to how we should be doing things.  Well done, sir.  I wish I'd been smart enough to think of that.  You could also use the analogy of the Spanish Conquistadors using all the enslaved tribes of Mexico/Central America to help defeat the Aztecs (as VDH laid it out in "Carnage & Culture"), but the Geronimo comparison is probably a better one.

170 Nothing will change in Afghanistan until we choke off the cash the Taliban get from the drug trade.  Until this basic fact is grasped everything we do will be futile in the long.  How do we choke off this flow of cash??  Not by the bizarro world policy of trying to convince farmers to cut there incomes by 90% to grow kumquats or cucumbers or whatever crop grows in the mountainous desert that is Afghanistan.  Far easier, cheaper and more popular with Afghanistan people would be to simply by the opium ourselves directly from the farmers for fair market value, then selling the opium on the world pharmaceuticals market.  And if a farmer doesn't sell to us and instead tries to sell to the Taliban, then you go in and spray his crop.  This would cost far less then sending 17,000 additional troops and would end the war in a year.  My brother-in-law is an AF intelligence officer who just got back from a year in Afghanistan and he believes this plan would work, but no one in the Pentagon or the White House (either administration) wants to see the headline in the NYT "US Enters the Illegal Drug Business", so it will never be tried.

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