Using one of our own nukes or an Israeli Nuke is not a good idea. Each nuke has it's own unique radiological signature depending on where the fissile material was produced.

Best option?

IAF TBOs (The Big One) Iran completely, hits all major strategic targets in Iran with nuclear devices -- this of course will destroy Iran as a modern nation pretty much, but hey; Israel is going to be hated if it uses just one nuke to take out an Iranian Enrichment facility; so why not go all the way?

This also solves the problems of:

1.) Insufficient IAF air strength; you only need to fight your way to Iran and drop your nukes.

2.) Lack of aircraft in IAF inventory that can drop heavy penetrating bombs like MOP, to defeat the Iranian superbunkers for their bomb program. The IAF could use what they have now, but it would require that several planes orbit over an Iranian facility, dropping each penetrator bomb into the crater left by the last one; until the bunker is destroyed. Not Good.

So, THE BIG ONE is the only realistic option. The nuclear destruction of Iran.

You're thinking short-term.

1) The US government has, and is hiding technology to extract oil from shale, to convert coal to oil, and cheap agriculturally-grown chemicals for plastics, gasoline, and so forth.

2) We want Iran to attack Israel, so Saudi Arabia and Russia have to get involved.  The talk of WW IV will be for naught, as the US doesn't get involved.  China and India will get dragged in.  The oil fields will burn, the poppy fields will burn, the endless supply of martyrs/fantatics will burn.

We'll hear dire forecasts of the US running out of oil, but somehow the US will always have 'almost enough' oil.  We'll export to England, Australia, New Zealand, Japan, and the rest of our friends but there just isn't enough oil for France et al.

I hate to be rude, but this story circulated this fall.  I believe it was BEFORE the election.  Sorry, I can not remember where the hell I read it, probably in the Economist or WSJ.  It is OLD news.

Kemp

Jesus, railwriter.  I've got enough "real life" in my real life.  I'm a freakin' Packers fan after all.  As long as I've got to watch the Giants play the Eagles today, I thought it would be nice to pretend that we're citizens of an omnipotent Nation that utilizes it's competent intelligence services to eliminate threats to world peace. 

  It's not like I'm asking the Intelligence Agencies of our country to solve the Global Financial Crisis after all.  This is just MINOR fantasy.

We create an "industrial accident" using our secret technology that can detonate a nuclear device from a distance by squirting a focused beam of ....

Hey, what are those black Hummers doing in front of my house?  Better go see what they want.  Back later.

How about identify key personnel and take them out in a lowkey approach?

Some die in car accidents, some get so sick they cant continue their work, some mysteriously disappear. Recruit the 3rd string replacements, and get them to "adjust" select parts of the production. Instead of setting of a nuclear device, just set off an ordinary explosive close enough to the material to contaminate the whole facility. As an added touch, recruit janitors to "adjust" other systems so the alarms keep going off, power surges happen at crucial times, climate systems fail, and so on.

If done competently, it will be so lowkey that there will be full deniability, or in worst case plausible deniability ("the janitor was asked to provide information, not to detroy things") There might be quite some time before the opposing side realizes there is more to this than just bad luck. It will also have a good chance to wreak havoc with the program, and set it back years, if not stop it cold. (Take out the 1st and 2nd string, and you will not have much of a team left)

Yes, recruiting people to do all this, and to pull off these kind of operations inside a hostile country is extremely difficult if not impossible. But as a pure thought excercise...

Fair enough, Russ. Next time you decide to disparage a group of folks who work to keep you and yours safe--and have done a pretty goddamn good job of it, with scant thanks--ask yourself if they really deserve the kind of disdain that "fucktards" implies.

Hahahah, jesus. Go crack one off or something, you're tighter than a nuns ass.

There are a bunch of hardworking pros at Langley, and they deserve our gratitude, the more so because, unlike many other professions, they're not at liberty to bray on endlessly about themselves.

But they are at liberty to leak like a sieve and shit all over the President to the press.

Meh.

If you can get someone inside the facility, carrying a micro-bomb loaded with SuperGlue, (or a dozen of them, 12X++ better, even), you've shut it down for a minimum of a year.

Lets see if the countryside really supports the city Mullahs.

Heh. Remember that Iranian story about a country mouse that moved to the big city and hung out with a Mullah mouse. Hilarity ensued as their respective lifestyles clashed. Then the Mullah mouse had the country mouse tried in a people's court and hung in the town square for being a homosexual.

I love that story!

With "The One" less than 10 days from assuming the office of President

I was having a great weekend.  Thanks for ruining it!

Could it be that the NYT, in their normal stupid over-zealous need to bash Bush and hurt the U.S. has the story wrong?

ABC News (200

International Herald Tribune (200

World News 2006

Don't the dudes building the bomb have to eat and drink? I mean, it's not possible that they obtain all of their sustenance from within their own borders. Thus, wouldn't a simple case of botulism do the trick? I mean, sure, by itself it may not be enough , but what if you combined it with a heavy-duty dose of diurectics and/or laxatives?

Sure, it's not like Tom Clancy sexy or anything like that, but you could always pick out one poor fucker who wasn't on-duty at the time and claim that he played a really bad practical joke, right?

We send michelle O to take care of the job.  After all she's a communications expert that makes over 300 or 400 grand a year for a hospital, so she's good with communications.

She just needs to get get into the country.  Maybe she can use that affirmative action ticket that she didn't use to get into college.  Or the one she didn't use to get into law school.  Yeah, that's it.

Then she can take care of business, while her mom sits for the kids in the white house.

Then we'd have that excuse we've been looking for to give the first lady a salary.

She can command the "Unicorn of Destruction^TM" with a laser pointer, sort of like that laser guidance thingy that the military guys use some times.

Funny, you had the best plot in your throw away line.

Bruce Willis played a oil driller, right?  Todays the technology exists to steer a drill in any direction, even laterally.  So you drill laterally next to key facilities, such as power generation or Gas refining or even nuclear development.  Pack in a few tons of conventional high explosives, and set them all off at the same time.

OK, second part of the story.  The plan fails to destroy the Iran leadership or their program.  But the surprise is, the operators always knew it had a zero chance of success.  Their intention wasn't to succeed, but to fail in such a spectacular fashion that the attempt was clear and traceable.  Now you have one highly pissed off Iran leadership screaming bloody murder and fully committed to all out war and everyone else finally has to choose a side.

Your welcome.

"... 2 tons of used banana peels."

Well, yes, but finding 5 well-built blondes to fly Cessnas to do the follow-up drop involves as-yet unsolved technical issues.  See the preceeding thread with the girl trying to fit through the opening.  Such issues could endanger the entire mission, so perhaps leaving this action for later is a better choice..

A genetically engineered virus that causes uncircumcised penises to become infected and eventually kill the men they are attached to. Spread it around the middle east water supplies.

Look for lots of surprising conversions to Judaism and interfaith marriages...  

Come one morons, don't you get it?

The real rouge intelligence and Black ops counter to a missguided administration isn't to have a real honest to goodness workable plan.  It is to put forward a intentionally flawed plan, cloaked in so much secrecy that no one who would know that it was certain to fail can get near it to reveal it as doomed to fail.  The purpose being not to succeed and give power and cover to the current missguided administration, but instead to complete discredit it and to make clear to the whole of the world that the stakes are real, that nuclear war really is going to happen, if people don't actually do something to stop it.

It would be in effect tricking the weak and duplicious leadership to accidently calling "All in!".

sabotage the water and power lines into any suspect areas.

The US has had eight years to act covertly in Iran.  Now is a bit late.

Deliver a load of Members Only jackets with a poison embedded in the linings that is activated by body heat.

Rods from God.

Hey, is that an RCMP cruiser outside my front door? I'll go see what they want. Back later.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at January 11, 2009 02:47 PM

  That's what I'm talking about.  I don't know whether or not we've got any Russian fissile material.  That's a GOOD thing.  If I knew about it, then everyone would know about it, and then having it wouldn't be useful anymore.

  Railwriter, I believe that there are still good people working at the CIA.  Unfortunately, in order to accomplish anything, you've got to have a chain of good people ranging from field ops all the way up to the Deputy Directors and the politically appointed Director.  If there's as much as one "kumbayah" singer in the chain, there's a chance that the operation will either get cut from within or that the whole freakin' thing will be on Page 1 of the NYT just as soon as it looks like it might work.  I want to believe that our intelligence professionals can still get it done, but reality says that a bad organization trumps good individuals every freakin' time.

  Of course, if they ARE working on something that will be effective in ending this situation, the guys working at the CIA should thank me for publicly calling them out as incompetent fucktards.  Reinforcing their cover, so to speak.

Arbalest, in post #65 I think you missed the real plot that is offered.

The idea as I understand it, is to make an attempt you have absolutely no intention of actually working.  But to mask it so that it looks like a genuine effort.  The mechanics are such that it is the effort becoming public knowledge does three things at once. 

1 - It guarantees the failure of the current US administration as being seen as ineffectual. 

2 - It raises world wide public attention to the fact that things will not be allowed to continue, not even by the seemingly peacful side of the US, a price WILL be payed.  Clearly, another, stronger more determined less graceful attempt will be made.

3 - It forces everyone world wide to reconcile where they stand in unambiguous terms, reinforcing the above realization that full out nuclear war is more than possible, it is eminent.

Some have said that in reality, that was exactly what the failed Iran hostage rescue attempt was.  An intentionally doomed effort.  But how much of a failure was it really?

1 - It unseated Carter by making him appear ineffectual and robbing him of any cover on the whole debacle that is Iran. 

2 - It made the Iranians choose between those more ready to negotiate and those who would certainly cause a war.  Those in the US were less willing to suffer mediocrity in our own efforts or our allies.  Suddenly guy were volunteering for SF assignments when before we had to recruit hell out of them.

3 - It made the other countries realize they had better decide who's side they were going to be on when the real shooting began.  Thus the whole affair quickly began to unwind. 

If we had succeeded, then the US would potentially have been worse off in the long run.  It took many years for me to be at ease with the concept that this could have been the intention all along since I had an involvment and lost comrades in the attempt.  Which is not to say I think it was intended to fail, certainly not by the military.  Just that I can now see how such a thing could be.  If you were close enough to the operation, then you would know, the CIA held back many critical pieces of intelligence required for the success of the mission.  So much so, that "The Activity" formed it's own ability to get intelligence, and that pissed off the CIA so badly they tried to get them completely shut down.  They tried hard enough that "The Activity" had to fake it's own demise.

Iran is ripe for special ops covert operations. You have a whole generation of young people who absolutely hate the mullahs. All you have to do is make the mullahs look like fools first and then you make them look weak. Then you do things to destabilize Iran. This is a legitimate activity because Iran has been destabilizing countries for decades. It would only be justice to screw them up.

Remember the word "escalate"? It is your friend, because you can make something look like someone else's fault. You never start out with your worst option first, just because you limit your options. This is of course, is tempered by the level of threat against you. But then if you are faced with a serious threat, you want as many options on the table as you can get.

Whenever possible, get someone else to do your dirty work. There are all kinds of people in the Middle East that hate Iran and would love to see them get what's coming to them. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran is much better than a conflict between Iran and Israel. How hard would that be to pull off.

Timing is everything. It would be much better to get Iran to move rashly now than later. How hard is it to provoke Iran? Even better, if you can provoke someone into provoking Iran for you. How about covert ops dressed as Kurdish rebels attacking a Turkish military post inside Turkey from Iran?

When people seek to be troublesome, it is too easy to cause trouble for them. This is what special ops people are for. And the CIA and all those types.

In my opinion a clandestine invasion of Iraq, where you give Saddam Hussein tons of problems through special operations missions would have been highly effective. Maybe I am wrong on that, since President Bush was able to accomplish his goal which was to kill thousands of jihadi types. Good for you, Mr. President.

#74 Bill Ciz

I thought I did a rather good job of making my scenario(s) look like (a) genuine effort(s).  Was I over the top?

#75 adamthemad

Arbalest #77

Not in making the attempt seem real, but rather in that if an attempt is to look sincere, and still be intended to fail, you don't risk losing a large percentage of your most valuable aircraft.  The real agenda isn't to succeed after all.

Also, I don't think the Isreali leadership is a target for discrediting.  So the planning for failure would ruin the wrong leadership.

Think again along the lines of:

You have a horrible boss you want fired.  But you can get them to approve a attempt to do the right thing one time.  If they do the right thing once and succeed, it is virtually guarunteed they will use that one time as cover while they run their other agendas.  So you have one shot, and that is to set your boss up to fail, making him take the fall, and draw everyone's atttention to what really should be a priority and how your boss is the wrong guy to do it.  Now you get a new boss and better attention on the real issues.

Here is a classic example of what I mean.

A kitchen manager was bringing in unskilled undocumented workers to work the kitchen at a resort.  The Manager also made other cutbacks in garbage collection.  The result of the two combines was that there was a developing rodent problem.  Now you can get the boss to realize that if the rodant problem continues, it will be bad for everyone, so something has to be done.  But the boss doesn't want to hire exterminators and have the bill show up and bring attention to what they have been doing wrong in the kitichen. 

You could help the boss actually clean up the garbage area and improve cleanliness of the kitchen, but then you will have a new full time job dealing with rats forever, all while watching your friends replaced by unqualified, even illegal workers.  OR  You could offer the bos a way out.

You tell you boss that if he laced a bucn of sugar with Alum, it would kill the rats and the mice and the good thing is, it makes them die away from where they eat, far away from the kitchen, because it causes a unquencable thirst and they basicly go down to the creek and drink until they drown.  He loves the idea and so you do it.  But you haven't told him that the water lines to the ice maker in the dinning area are plastic and they leak.  So when you give the rats the alum, the don't go out side down the road to the creek, they go into the dining area, chew through the plastic line on the ice maker, flood the room attracting all the other rats to the water where they all drink until they drown.  Now everyone in the whole club membership and the local health department knows that there is and has been a rat problem.  It even ends up in the local paper so the whole illegal worker issue becomes public knowlege.  Not only is the kitchen manager fired, but the people in the club managment that empowered him are also canned. 

If you have been successful, it would have actually been worse for you and everyone else.

Do you see the plot line now?

Sorry about the double post.

I don't know how that happened.

Wow, look at all those typos.  I'm not so good with a broken finger and dimn lighting.  I suppose the 4 shots of McCallen haven't helped either.

I hope you can work out what I meant.

If you have been successful, it would have actually been worse for you and everyone else.

Do you see the plot line now?

Boy do I ever. I just lost my job last month because of this type of scenario. No, I didn't start it, some other asshole did this, and I got caught in the shitstorm along with every other employee.

However, I'm not so sure that this applies to Eagle Claw. I just don't see the de-nutted, post-Church Committee, post-Vietnam CIA being competent enough to plan this sort of thing. One can make an argument that this was the unintended effect, but it would require a level of competence and long-range vision that just wasn't present in the CIA at the time.

Why would you want to nuke certain areas of Iran? Dumb on the face of it.

A more practical scenario would be a TOTAL blockade if the country--nothing in or out. Period.

We could seal Iran tighter than a bull's ass in fly season, and nobody on the planet could deny us the act.

For added zest, ruining their only oil refinery would deny them any sort of mobility for their military.

Lest you think we haven't the ability to do so, I remind you of the Navy and Air Force, woefully underemployed currently.

Within 3 months their economy (and gov't) would crumble.

Arbalest

Look again at the proposal.  If the object is to come up with a Clancy type plot line, then look at Clear and Present Danger.  Now instead of a small op where the men on the ground are sacraficed fighting a drug lord for a personal vendeta, it is a larger operation that is sent on a sacraficial mission to discredit the higher administration here, and also to rais the stakes on the Iranians to an leve that is unacceptable to the rest of the world, or even the Iranians.  To force them to fold or call.

You are familiar with poker aren't you?

What I am describing is going tricking the administration into going "all in".  You make them make a bad play, Iran raises the stakes, and now someone has to call them.

IllTemperedCur #86

Oh I completely agree that it was not the CIA's intent.  It is just a possibility of the kind of thinking that "could" come from them.  After the dust settled, there were more than a few of us that wondered if we had been used, and I was one of those who didn't beleive it was intent instead of ineptitude.  But I can certainly see how it could be, since I came to no longer believe in the more nobel nature of the spooks.  Take a good look at Ms Plame, then think, if someone like her did happen to have such a thought,  And it was Bush who they would discredit, would they try it?  Phuck yeah they would.

#85.

Whatever happened to kill their men, rape their women, and sell their children into slavery?

The unintended open mike statement. Obama is at some press conference or other type of place where there will be lots of open mikes and TV cameras around. Some important person (aide/world leader) starts to talk to him. Obama then covers the prominently displayed mike in front of him, but the other person forgets to cover their mike (all caught on TV of course). Conversation as follows:

Other World Leader: "Mr President aren't you worried that the Iranians will just double cross you?"

Obama: " Hell no Bro! If dos camel jockeys try to mess wit me den I will jis use dat Alien shit in area 51 on their sorry asses fo shizzle!"

Other World Leader: " But none of that stuff has really been tested outside of the labratory yet."

Obama: "That's even better the Iranians won't know what hit them. Plus there is no way they can get their hands on enough tinfoil to make everyone hats in time fo shizzle!"

Or words to those effect. Then we can all just sit back with our pop corn and watch the fun. It might be a good idea to have bought a rather large share in tinfoil companies if you can swing it.

As a refinement to Russ's "plan A", instead of using a timer or a radio-detonator, just plant it in or near the facility and activate a really sensitive anti-tamper system.  Maybe put it in a storeroom or behind a bush outside or something so they won't notice it for a while.  By the time it goes off, hopefully all the operatives will have successfully egressed the country.  Ideally, Bush would have ordered this operation timed with the inauguration, so that he'd be back in Crawford before the boom and Obama really wouldn't know a thing about it.  The guys who planned it would have retired or transferred to totally unrelated department, all the documents would be burned, etc.  Also, we've known about the characteristic "radiological signature" of nuclear material for years, so surely we've developed a way to doctor that or mask it or something, especially against Iranian technical know-how.  If nobody said any different, most of the world could probably be convinced it was an "accident"- i.e., the Iranians were setting up a bomb to test, and somehow set it off by mistake, or possibly a disgruntled employee sabotaged them, or something.

--Start slipping payments and coded messages to some of their top nuclear scientists.  See how long it takes for the Iranian Counterintelligence to "disappear" them.

--Send Ahmadinnerjacket a personal letter.  Lace it with LSD.  Put someone else's name as the return adress.

--Introduce sandworms into the Iranian ecology.

--Clone an army of carnivorous wooly mammoths, smuggle them into Iran, and release them.

--Start rumors that we've already killed the entire population of Iran, and all their contacts with the rest of the world are part of an elablrate deception operation headquartered in the back room of a gun shop in Paris, Texas.

--Air-drop hippies and Enviro-whackos to protest in front of all their nuke facilities.  Pre-print their signs with appropriate slogans in Farsi.  Send in secret agents first to plant hidden cameras.  Use the Federal gov't's power to pre-empt regular television programming to show the results live on every channel.

--Tell PETA the Iranians are really using their secret nuke labs for unnecessarily cruel animal testing on bunnies, kittens, puppies, and baby goats.

--Tell Greenpeace the Iranians are using the labs to develop sooper-seekrit long-range whaling techniques.

--Convince liberals that Tehran is actually the capital of Israel.  Then "do something" about the fighting in Gaza with a Trident-III.

--Study the records and traditions of Mohammed's "prophetic" episodes.  Use our best acting, special-effects, and other technology to replicate as many of Mo's credentials as possible and start a counter-cult to Islam, with most of its moral tenets based on Stoicism, Objectivism, and the classical liberalism of the Scottish Enlightenment.

In other words - Porn bomb the regime and further weaken their youth culture through cheap Euro-trash techno and revolutionary French philosophy.

No! That will just create another country full of snooty clove-cigarette-smoking holier-than-thou Leftists criticizing everything the U.S. does. One Paris Left Bank is enough.

Sure. But our government is full of people who hang on their every word.

Then again, this could result in a depletion of the worldwide Proust supply. Maybe it would be worth it...

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