1 So basically we're always in a recession unless we're at a peak? But we don't know it for months after the fact?

That's depressing.

2 It's only a recession if a Republican is in office. Duh.

3

That's depressing.

Thanks, your feedback will be used to improve our propaganda services!

4 I can believe that we've been in a recession for about 11 months And what's really scary is the fact that we might just have hit bottom. I still say 8,000 is more or less where investors feel comfortable -- at least within the 8,000 to 9,000 range, and sadly, it doesn't appear that we'll get much beyond that in the first half of 2009. Which means, we'll be stuck in a recession for much longer than we've experienced during other recessions. Not giving up hope that we can get out if it sooner, but right now, that's where it's pointing. Bernanke spoke an hour ago and said it's possible they may lower interest rates again, along with a few other tricks up their sleeves.

5 I'm depressed when I'm not peaked. IYKWIMAITYD

6

I don't trust this Council of Econimic Doom or whatever they call themselves.  Too arbitrary.  I much prefer "two or more consecutive quarters of negative growth."  That's pretty darn objective.

Also, a recession is more than unemployment.  Recent unemployment, by historical standards, isn't actually too bad.  (Time was, five ro six percent was considered "full employment.")

7 "So, we've now been in a recession for 11 months. The media is officially repudiated, which has reported us being in a recession for eight years."

Well, we knew it was coming, what with a right-wing Jesus freak war-mongering nutjob in the White House.

8 NPR must be getting paid by the story to keep the recession getting worse and worse until January 20!  Man, are they ever laying it on thick, even in stories about singers, etc. they manage to work in the fact that we are all doomed... until the Big Change finally occurs, that is.  It will be interesting to do some stats on how things change in the tone of their stories once there is a change in the party in the White House.  I predict things are gonna get sunnier!

9 NPR stands for National Propaganda Radio. 

10 I'd go back further and suggest that the recession started on November 7, 2006.  We just didn't know it until about 4 months ago.


Notice how the economy didn't start going haywire until the Dems got back into Congress.

11 *back into control of Congress*

12 It's only a recession if a Republican is in office. Duh.

It's a recession if a Republican is in office.

FTFY.

13

LOL, a new broom needs some bad shit so he can take credit for “fixing” it. We knew this shit was coming and Bob Beckel telegraphed this punch last Sunday with the “Bush tax cuts did not help the economy” bullshit.

14 I'm confused as well, it certainly reads like we're either at a peak or in a recession.  Which, actually, is true in a sense, either you are ascending, at peak or descending.  But the term recession has become so loaded that this definition seems a bit overwrought. 

15

I knew this would happen, just this way. I got out my 401k of the stock market over a year ago because the fundamentals were NOT sound.  And don't even think about calling a bottom on this yet.  I mean, politics aside.  I'm a card-carrying GOPer but the truth is the truth.  It all comes down from the housing bubble and the mortgage derivatives.  Oh, and balls-to-the-wall spending.

It seems to me that the MSM actually did an admirable job covering it up using the *traditional definition of a recession*  this past year.  Of course, they always left out the part about future revisions.

 

16 This definition is a bit screwy - for any point in time to not be a recession means that it sits between two peaks, in between which there was no dip low enough to call it a recession.  You can have a very long good time after a peak before a recession by the negative growth indicator.  Hell, you could just have one really kickass quarter during the beginning of a boom, and most the boom would be considered a recession.

17 How the fuck is barry gonna redistribute negative growth? This shit ain't helping michelles babies. This is why we need to raise taxes now, while people still have money to confiscate. Ya know, it's gonna take the fairness doctrine to straighten you fuckers out. Isn't it.................Ok, this moby thing is just a test.

18 This seems kind of fucked up.

If they go back to the peak of employment all they are really measuring is the end of the expansion. That's not the same as a recession.

Just another reason to hate economists (as if we needed any more).

19 Like I said-- having a group of people deciding if we're in a recession or not is a Bad Idea.  Too subjective.  Is this the methodology they've always used, and how does it compare to the traditional, objective definition?

20 Since Obama was lauded for the recent small rebound in the market, will he also get the blame for today's nearly 700 pt drop?

21 I watched the NBER guy on CNBC with Maria Bartoromo. I get their methodology, I guess, but it still seems really convoluted. They consider GDP, employment, manufacturing outputs and some other time data series then make their best guess. But it's not a sure thing with rules. It's a board of seven economists deciding shit.

Wolverine,
No. Obama is not responsible for bad things. Only good things. Unless you want to go to the reeducation camps happy fun places, you'll want to be careful not to confuse that point again.

22

Fox has jumped on this bandwagon as well, thus validating the “if it bleeds it leads” theory of journalistic lies. The news reader asked Amity Shlaes her opinion with regard to the great depression. She laughed at him and said comparing this to the depression is like comparing a rain shower to hurricane Katrina. The stupid news reader said something about the depression lasting 4 years and she laughed at him again as it was over 10 years.

23

General elections are due in a couple of months in India. I will make a prediction: BJP (the nationalist right-of-center party) will run on a platform of being tough on national security and will win the election. The current Congress led government is perceived as soft on terror. The government just shifted the Harvard edcuated finance minister P. Chidambaram to head the Home Ministry (the ministry in charge of internal secueiry) in an urgent effort to change this perception. Chidambaram is a very smart, efficient, and competant task master but even he will not be able to turn this around in two months. Some good things will happen on the security front since the Government is under a lot of political pressure. But, the perception is it is too little too late.

The BJP is also a free-market party that is very friendly to the U.S. and Israel. They have some very competant people in their party but also have a base of Hindu religious leaders (not dissimilar to our Republican party). In the past, they have been good at keeping the religious leaders under control while governing effectively because of the moderations required by coalition-government politics. With BJP, there will be a continuity of economic reforms with also a tougher national security policy. The muslim minority in India doesn't trust BJP and the terrorists in Pakistan should worry a bit more with BJP in power. The people of India, given their current anger and the terrorist attack, are likely to switch to BJP. 

 

24

"Obama welcomes "vigorous debate" with his cabinet"

Translation: "I don't have the slightest fucking clue what to do, you guys better tell me"

25 That's a retarded way to decide recessions but it highlights something stupid about economics: there's no baseline. There's no "normal" economy, just highs and lows. You don't have "here's what it's supposed to be" at any level and that sort of points out the basic problem with economic forecasting and declarations. What's normal for one guy is low for another and high for yet another.

26 Well then, I guess there's nothing to worry about.  If we were in a recession 11 months ago, I for one am looking forward to what this "recession" has to bear.  The illuminati MSM have painted this as such a bad thing, but a year ago I was doing pretty well, despite the apparently dismal economic state we were in.

27

First we have to hit the recession threshold (famously defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, although that's not a hard and fast rule; one quarter of .1% growth, followed by a quarter of deeper contraction, would presumably suffice.

Actually it pretty much is a hard and fast rule among reputable business/financial media and mainstream economics. It's referred to as a technical recession to distinguish from an official recession which is where the government says it's in recession.

28

Just like pregnancy*. Go back and figure out the last time you are 100% certain you weren't, and use that as the arbitrary starting point for when you were. Makes sense to me.

*for those among you that don't have much exposure to actual reproduction, obstetricians date pregnancy from the first date of the mother's last period. Which of course can be weeks before a sperm actually crosses the finish line.

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