1 The DJ30 is the new quagmire.  Down 444.

2

I'm sure the networks are readying their 'How We Won' specials for 11/22. Probably preempt the whole schedule.

Right.  You betcha.

3 Timetable or eviction notice ?

4 NBC is probably putting together a "How Barack Obama won the Iraq War" documentary as we speak.

5 Posted by: John Ryan at November 20, 2008 04:32 PM (LHCAa)

You're funny in Carrot Top kind of way.

6 Someone named Michelle Flournoy has been named to the transition team for DoD. She's id'd as the cofounder of the Center for a New American Security or some such. The fact that she would affiliate herself with a pussy like O kind of discredits her in my eyes, but what do some of you more informed morons know about her? We fixin' to turn the pentagon in to a community center where kids can play midnight basketball and snort coke or anything fucked up like that?

7

We haven’t won because Iran is still there and they will own Iraq within 6 months of us leaving.  This was why Saddamn was taken out in Gulf I.

8 I'm sure the networks are readying their 'How We Won' specials for 11/22. Probably preempt the whole schedule.

Nah. They'll be saving that for 1/21/09.

9 If you want to take your mind off of all this stuff than you will love this.
Conservatives are always looking for good conservative entertainment.  I stumbled across The Fame of Our Fathers.  It is wonderfully entertaining and very educating.  It is the sequel to TheRoad to Independence.  These are audio documentaries Produced andDirected by Mike Church.  He is Mike Church, from the Mike Church Showon Sirius Radio.  These audio documentaries are great.  They are funand filled with great voices which make you feel like you are actuallystanding there, watching our founders write the constitution.  MikeChurch does a great job of explaining what the founders were trying toaccomplish and why they believed.  
Finally there is someConservative Educational Entertainment.  It seems like Libs are theonly ones who produce movies and they always try to rewrite our historyto support their liberal agenda.  
We need to support conservativesand get movies like this out to as many people as possible so that wecan protect this nation from socialist Marxists.  We must educate ourchildren properly, so they don't end up being fooled by a bunch ofLibs.  Go to WWW.MIKECHURCH.COM to order this movie and to listen to some sneak previews.  
This is a great CD to have in your car or to listen to with your kids. It really is a lot of fun and will teach you a lot.  For all of you that have Sirius Satellite Radio like I do they will be airing the world premiere of this movie on Friday Nov. 28th, 2008.  
I pre-ordered my copy at WWW.MIKECHURCH.COM.  YOU CAN ALSO CALL 866-483-DUDE.
SUPPORT CONSERVATIVES!!!

10

Congratulations to the men and women who fought this nasty thing on the ground, took AQs best punch and rammed it back down their throats. There are no perfect wars, heck there are no perfect battles. You do things, you try things, you adapt improvise, and overcome. All the pussies who jumped on the war bandwagon when it was popular, and then bailed when it got tough, should go down in history as the cowards and scum that they are. Democrat and Republican.

"These are the times that try men's souls.
The summer soldier and the sunshine patriot will,
in this crisis, shrink from the service of their country;
but he that stands it now,
deserves the love and thanks of man and woman.
Tyranny, like hell, is not easily conquered;
yet we have this consolation with us,
that the harder the conflict,
the more glorious the triumph.
What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly.
Heaven knows how to put a proper price upon its goods;
and it would be strange indeed,
if so celestial an article as Freedom
should not be highly rated." Thomas Paine

11 If this means we get to drink then I say Victory indeed!

Actually we won the war in Iraq the day Saddam's government fell.

It was the peace that took so long but we have that now too.


Cheers to every brave soul who served...and WON!

12

Ace-

If you haven't already, I would suggest reading The War Within, Woodward's report on the workings of the Bush administration during the Iraq war.  Yea, I know it's Woodward and you need to take the grain or two of salt but it does provide a pretty good view into the timing of the surge, the feedback Bush was getting from Casey, Rumsfeld, the CIA, etc.  Pretty interesting stuff.

It's also worth noting that Lincoln went through a few years and a few generals before he found his Petraeus.

13

kefka/farmer:

Hilarious. But don't underestimate the public's albeit limited ability to see through wholesale bullshit like claiming Barack Obama won the Iraqi war.  The issue has defined Bush, his stubbornness in not withdrawing by mid-2008 because the war was "lost" according to Reid/Pelosi explicitly and Obama/Clinton almost explicitly and certainly implicitly.

The media was central to driving that narrative, that is, until early 2008 when the surge success was statistically undeniable, and therefore coverage waned.  And after Barack got the nomination, and he said the surge worked better than "anyone imagined" (except Bush and McCain), the media has been saying Iraq is going well when they talk about it, which is next to never - more on pirates than Iraq, more on fucking Sarkozy's sorry, socialist French butt (notwithstanding his BS claim to be a conservative) than Iraq.

At the end of the day, the stakeholders inside Iraq, like Maliki and some Sunni leaders and certainly the Kurds, will not let the country backslide because they'll lose everything.  The key tipping point was last fall when the folks in Iraq started planning more for a central government stability scenario than for a balkanization/collapse scenario.  That isn't going to change, even if Barack the Wise decides to pullout early. 

 

14

This puts the pressure on Obama. If things go south after January he will have effectively lost a won war. I don't think he wants that on his resume, but his resume has never mattered so what am I trying to say? Never mind. What was I thinking? Stupid! Stupid! Stupid!

15 #6  The Center for New American Security, the WSJ ran an article describing them as "middle of the road", so we will have to see.  I expect a lot more intellectual hand-wringing in foreign and defense policy then out right leftism.  Our sheepdogs are going to have to polish-up their whitepaper versus powerpoint skills in order to justify expenditures, policies, and actions.  Tiss a good time to be selling paper to the Pentagon. 

16 If anyone can find the perfect war, fought by perfect people with perfect results, please let me know.

17

If my recollection of history is accurate, when we defeated the Nazis and Japanese in WWII, we didn't remove all of our armed forces from those two countries.  Forces remained to ensure a smooth transistion to a form of democratic government and to avoid chaos and communist influence, especially in Germany and Italy.

To me, the situation is no different in Iraq then WWII.  Armed Forces need to reamin until the situation is stable, and then we leave.  I feel we can and SHOULD declare victory in Iraq, and plan for a staged withdrawal that benefits us AND Iraq.

Declaring victory sticks a thumb in the eye of leftists, KosKids, Soros, etc.  Let them howl all they want.  By now we know the media is in the tank of the left, so who cares.

18 I watched Senator McCain take full credit for the surge in Iraq during the convention.  I heard McCain, et al, vilify President Bush.  President Bush, for good or evil, attempted to free and bring a better way of life to the middle east which could possibly effect the rest of the world, including the USA.  I give the Commander in Chief, and our heroic military credit for great bravery.  It is telling that only Senator McCain supported our President during wartime.....very telling.

19 #13 in line with your thought- I was reading the USA Today this morning ad there was a front page article of how great recruiting for the military has become. I guess Obama waved his magic wand. 

20 #16 Wolverine, The War of Wrath in Beleriand

21 If anyone can find the perfect war, fought by perfect people with perfect results, please let me know.

Iraq has been one of the most perfect wars I have seen.

Korean war: 3 years, 39000 dead, draw.

Vietnam: 15ish years, 58000 dead, loss.

Iraq: five years, 6000dead, win/wining.

22 Winning the war should have been a foregone conclusion.  A cash strapped dictatorship without superpower support against the most professional large military in the world, backed by the largest economy in the world was no contest.   Winning the peace should have been just as likely.

It took the State Department and the Democrat/Media complex to fuck it up enough to be losable.

23

Wolv,

Exactly.  Recruiting rates were never as bad as they were framed by the MSM. I bet some of those statistics, if not a majority, were pre-election.  I am sure that fact is not highlighted in the "reporting".

The media has every incentive to paint Iraq as stable and our military as strengthening from here on out, but still, I think it will be a really tough sale to anyone but hte 25% of voters that are completely koolaid driven. 

24 #20 the war of what with who?

25

You guys are missing the  DEAL OF THE CENTURY

26

1) I don't know. The American military's willingness to critique its actions, however successful or unsuccessful, is one of the things that makes it as good as it is.

2) I'm willing to cut the British some slack. Tactically speaking, again I don't know. Strategically, they were there, and they stayed there after two terror bombings in England. That had to've mattered a lot.

27 #21 thanks for making my point

28 Damn, I was vicrolled

29 #25 puking now!

30 To clarify on the above, I am referring to giving Obama credit for winning the war as the "tough sale" the media will likely attempt and fail at imho

31 I give credit to President Bush. Of course General Petraeus deserves credit for the strategy and the implementation of it. But the untold story was how many high-ranking pentagon types were against the surge also. Not just democrats, but many of the top brass that Bush was listening too. It is a credit to Bush that he refused the prospect of defeat and went forward with the surge.

32 #23 stats were pre-election, just framed so you-know- who gets the credit

33

Vic:

How many Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands commemorative Corvette dollars (with lights you can turn on!) will those plates cost me?

34 Wolverine, its a geek thing  Gurth gothrimlye

35 Here's the thing about declaring victory (especially from the comfort and safety of our keyboards); Code Pink declared that the war ended last Thursday and took pie and flowers to several embassies (Venezuela, Iran, Bolivia, North Korea and the Cuban Interest Section of the Swiss Embassy). I feel that our side declaring victory gives a measure of credibility to the wackos and makes us look just as foolish- maybe more so.

Besides, we've always said that Iraq is just one battle in the war against terror. Finishing one battle is no cause for celebration when The Long War is far from over.

There's nothing I'd like more than celebrating the first step towards complete victory and honoring the sacrifice of my brothers- and sisters-in-arms, but I'm not sure this is the right time. We're doing it solely for making a political statement rather than an historic statement.

36 John, the war may be over in Iraq - but it's not over between us and Code Pink.

37 There is no way to polish the turd that calls itself the United Kingdom. They are done, turn the page.

38

FireHorse

 

Viiiiccctory Plates, cheap at any price.

 

(BTW, saw the add on TV while watching the Cavuto comment thing and couldn’t resist)

39

#35: Besides, we've always said that Iraq is just one battle in the war against terror. Finishing one battle is no cause for celebration when The Long War is far from over.

Right-o. Let's treat this more like the Liberation of Rome than the Fall of Berlin.

40

Viiiiccctory Plates, cheap at any price.

 

Cheap, and such craftsmanship, too! Notice how they made each victory plate in the shape of an "O"?

41

One of the posters mentioned giving Bush credit, which I think is something that is long over due. I searched for an article and found this old one, in that regard. Many have probably read it ... many may hate it. I just picked it quickly as it made some points I have been pondering.

http://tinyurl.com/6pgyha

Yes most of us were really upset (and rightfully so), with the education bill and the expansion of medicare. And I am sure we all have other issues where we disagreed with Bush, I know there were things where I did. But I think it's important to remember as this administration draws to a close:

1. Increased military spending and large pay raises for our troops. (trying to remember if there were one or two rounds of raises), after Clinton's ransacking of same with peace dividend

2. The Bush tax cuts that benefited us all

3. After recovering from 9/11, an economy that was pretty darn good for many years until the latest dem gift of a corrupt freddie and fannie

4. Returning a sense of honor and goodness to the Whitehouse after the sleazy Clinton years.

5. Justices Roberts and Alito

6. The selection of General Petraeus, and the willingness to shift strategies

7. The quick toppling of the taliban regime  in Afghanistan after 9/11 with about as small a footprint as you can get

8. The courage to tell us this is going to be a long war with good days and bad

Maybe everyone else can think of some others. I understand political expediency, and I admired Bush for laying low the last year to give GOP candidates cover, but at the same time, I think it was wrong of McCain and others to blast "failed policies of the past 8 years" along with the dems. For the most part we have had it pretty damn good, and the man, while imperfect, deserves some credit. At least as much as he undending abuse and critcism for any and all mistakes.

I am sure others will vehemently disagree, but those are my thoughts.

 

42

I'd add in John McCain, who was calling for a change in strategy and more troops when Bush was content to take a wait and see attitude.

I actually believe that it was the method of deployment that was important, not the numbers, though it's easier to rapidly deploy with larger numbers.  I just might have taken a touch longer, and increased Iraqi casualties, which BTW, would have been a good thing, cuz if you want a nation, YOU have to fight for it.

The surge allowed for a more comprehensive dominance of enemies, in less time, but Iraq isn't Germany.  Germany, while brutal was also civilized, and their leaders, and people of prominance were men of real education who could see their errors.  In Iraq, and all the arab world, we are dealing with a common people who are kept, deliberately, at a level slightly better than ancient tribal savages.

It would have been better, (this is such an incongruent reference) with the 1632 comparisson, where you establish a base of power, in bagdad (someplace in germany in the book) teach the new people in the safe zone freedom, and teach them they must fight for freedom.

The surge, removed responsibility from many iraqi's.  Fact is, Iraq is better, but it's not as it could have been, if we had followed the seed format of freedom, rather than the plant, iraq would be better.

If in 3 years, we have 20K troops in Iraq, I might say I'm wrong, but if we withdraw completely by then, or drop to only a token "tripline" grouping?  Iraq has SERIOUS challenges.

Also, there is democracy in Iraq, when will Chris Matthews start the chant for Bush's face on rushmoore like he promised 4 years ago?

43 Meanwhile, the troops in Afghanistand AND Iraq still need YOUR help...

44 "The big questions I have are these..."

While your questions remain valid, I don't think anything could have abbreviated a transformational war which was what was needed and what we ended up having.

Wars end when the indigenous get tired of fighting, tired of dying, tired of destruction and hopelessness. The sectarian divisions were always there but it was Al Qaeda that ultimately and quite ironically unified the country. Local warlords could have exacted a slow bleed and kept the tribal wars going essentially forever. However, the outsiders who kept stirring things up remained interested not in advancing one particular sect over another, which could have kept a regional civil war simmering for decades, but in advancing their own warped version of a caliphate. Its brutality had to be witnessed and experienced firsthand before the whole of Iraq could recognize the real threat within.

When indigenous Iraqis saw what Al Qaeda had planned, had already experienced secterian conflicts after years of previous wars, and noticed the sacrifice and humanity that is the American (and the Coalition to a lesser extent)  Armed Forces, the choice became unavoidably obvious. Plus, they saw that our miltary was not going to lose or back down quite as quickly (or abandon them as it had during the Kurdish insurrection). Unfortunately, they had, just had, to reach a breaking point where allying with one foreign "invader" was better than another one. That's a tough psychological and sociological barrier to cross; but as in all transformational conflicts, it's necessary.

Had the war ended quickly and had Iraqis, collectively, not experienced pain, they'd likely not have learned any lessons and regional warfare would persist practically forever. The conflagration would have expanded as the power vacuum got refilled. The presence of the U.S. paradoxically became both the target for and relief from anger. The pain exacerbated by Al Qaeda was a necessary component of victory. The enemies just have to know they've lost, and it wasn't so much vast populations of Iraqis were keen on fighting further (late in the game anyway) but that Al Qaeda centric allies had to be demoralized. Short of catastrophic annihilation, it seems humans need a few years of brutality to adjust to their new environment. And now, they'll have a relatively peaceful and free environment to grow or destroy... courtesy the US of A and its best ambassadors - the United States Armend Forces.

Bush was just steady enough to see this through in spite of a Democrat party hoping we would lose on his watch so their political apparatus could win domestic power. How doubly ironic that the man and the party that fought so hard to create another free nation is being dumped by the electorate, that those who wanted America to lose have ended up gaining power after such a transformative win in Iraq. To have such simultaneous pride and disgust is giving me a splitting headache.

45 Hey now.  Don't knock the Brits.  They've been our stalwart ally.  When even the Spanish abandoned us the British stuck with us.

46 Don't forget, we could have pulled that statue down for a lot less money...

47 Ace, I'm surprised NRO could publish point 3 without choking on the irony...

48 Armed, not Armend, obviously.

49 I have already sent my construction plans for a 150 ft statue of me.

50

Anonymous,

Actually nevermind, I don't want to get into the FALSE (at least near the end) ARVN mockery.

51 I guess I was a bit ahead of the curve with this post. I'm not at all convinced that we needed to go through the whole agony of 2005 and 2006 to secure victory. I think the timeline would have been similar, but the actions and pains might have been different had we not pursued the bastion defense that Casey promulgated. No one has ever won a counterinsurgency by holing up in forts.

52 WP -- The ARVN fought the NVA to a standstill for nearly two years after we left 'with honor'... until Congress cut their arms and ammo off. We CANNOT let that happen again.

53 Former Sunni insurgents have said in interviews that they would've fought us no matter what. No amount of force or outreach would've deterred them, because we were infidel invaders, and we were there to steal their oil and their women.

Really.

As for Iran: The fledgling Iraq army staggered and stumbled into Basra and did in three weeks what the Brits weren't able to do in four years.

The Iraqis killed uniformed Iranians in Basra, which forced the Iranians to call for peace.

I've read that the Iraqi special operations forces trained by the Delta Force and the SAS are as good as the best of the western forces. Iran has no comparable assets.

Just to remind you, re-watch this video of Iraqi special operations forces on a mission in Sadr City, fighting Iranian-trained militia.

According to the man who shot the video, the Iraqis went into Sadr City, captured and killed their targets, and left without losing a single man and without causing any civilian casualties.

I'd say Iraq can deal with Iran.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3tMDhVu-f2Q

54 Pussies like AllahP can kiss my victory loving ass. As long as my man comes home alive, and until Iran, Israel, Syria and Pakistan melt, I'll continue to walk around like a victor. Thank you very much.

The problem with victory is twofold.
It brings up degrees of success. At what point do the successful become victorious?
It also shines a light on those unwilling to admit any success. Ever. No success means no victory. The word has been tainted and those who use it are tainted. That makes moderates do the job of leftists. Have you seen any moderates criticizing people over the use of the word victory lately? Hmm. 

Just do what the MSM does. Declare whatever the fuck you want. Say it often enough and it becomes fact. We have victory in Iraq! My bed pillow is made up of marshmallows! If my pillow is not made up of marshmallows in the future, I'll say it was but the situation has changed and it's all Obama's fault.

See? Now, was that so fucking hard? Sheesh! Stop pissing me off. I have deployment hysteria and I'm just itching for a rumble. Meet me in the alley.

55

Bush had a plan all along and he shared it with us many times - we'll step down when the Iraqis step up.

The Surge happened only after the Iraqis fielded a creditable army and police, not before, since we couldn't have held the territory without the Iraqis.

McCain was just another cynical politician but with reverse English - push a fix before it is time, then stand back and take credit for what would have happened all along.

56 Hmm... neither Ace nor Crittenden noted that subways have other uses. The old Soviet Union built a hella subway system in Moscow, and it wasn't because they were worried about Ivan walking to work in the snow.

57 Ace made a very good, excellent, point that is never made in the usual story arc of the last 3-4 years in Iraq. Mostly this is because today's 'commentators' are not smart people and serious commentary and research into the dynamics of the Surge will take time.

Counter-Insurgency (COIN) strategies historically have taken on the order of a decade or more for positive results. The basic strategy is of population control, of holding and securing a population, winning over the psychology of the indigenous population and then using gained trust and information to isolate and root out insurgents.

Petraus has done the same on the order of 1/10th the timeframe conventionally envisioned. Why, how?

If you model Insurgency/COIN as a system of information transfers, the timeframe is bound on communication channel capacity and the information, the message, itself. Meaning, you need a message that resonates with the population and a means to deliver it.

Iraq in 2007 had both in spades. Cell phones, TV, Internet... a message could become highly pervasive and widely distributed in a population quickly without localized control as in past conflicts; perhaps orders of magnitude faster.


Ace touched on a good point, the message itself. Iraqis could see al-Qaeda in Iraq's brutality. They could see the murder and raping of pre-pubescent Iraqi boys, or suicide attacks on Muslim marketplaces using mentally handicap women. Or the stupidity of al-Sadr's followers going crazy in the streets.

Perhaps Iraq needed to get as bad as it did, to the brink of civil war, to realize the gains from the Surge. The level of unrest, murder and hate was so overt it may have taken a decade for such pervasiveness to have been forged and spread in an operation that was held in a false-vacuum state by stronger American intervention.

Maybe if COIN was started in 2005, Iraq would have just vacillated going forward with periods of continued violence and no generalized societal impetus for order and state.

It's a possibility...

58 ..the untold story was how many high-ranking pentagon types were against the surge also. Not just democrats, but many of the top brass that Bush was listening too. It is a credit to Bush that he refused the prospect of defeat and went forward with the surge.

Fucking A!!  This got overlooked in the endless campaign because a certain "maverick" tried to claim all the credit for the surge but what you wrote was exactly correct.  This was strangely pointed out by Bob Woodward, who then returned to his cocksucking MSM roots by writing that Bush subsequently failed to "lead" the country, whatever the fuck he meant by that.

59

We do not know if the Surge came, as if by providence, at precisely the right time, just as the Anbar Awakening was clearing Al Qaeda out of the country and seeking peace.

That overlooks the fact that the US military was instrumental in getting the Awakening started.

60 >>>I guess I was a bit ahead of the curve with this post. I'm not at all convinced that we needed to go through the whole agony of 2005 and 2006 to secure victory. I think the timeline would have been similar, but the actions and pains might have been different had we not pursued the bastion defense that Casey promulgated. No one has ever won a counterinsurgency by holing up in forts.

I agree... I think.  The thing is we might have blundered into letting these assholes murder each other until they were tired of it enough that we could sweep in and restore peace as heroes.

I don't know.  and I'm not making some argument that "Bush was playing four dimensional chess," or that he planned it this way.  It could be we made crucial, terrible costly errors... which through unforeseeable events turned out to be the *right* things to do.

61 >>>That overlooks the fact that the US military was instrumental in getting the Awakening started.

the military maybe but not the surge.  the awakening proceeded the surge.

62 Ultimately, our (and our allies') leaders just fucked up less than our enemies' leaders.  Not to take anything away from those with their butts on the line - they're the ones who kept on in spite of the mistakes.

63 If anyone thinks the "Awakening" and the "Sons of Iraq" (and "PEPES") before them were spontaneous expressions of the local populace that just happened to be well armed, well funded, organized, and in-line with US policy goals; I have some pink kool-aid to sell them.

64 The 4ID could not have been 'inserted' as they were changing to KSA due to Turkish treachery.  If they had stayed there Saddam would not have taken his troops off the front lines nor changed his defense posture.  He believed that the US shifting 4ID from Turkey to KSA would delay the US for at least 6 to 8 months, and so went into a COIN posture as he thought we would try the coup route.   He was wrong.  We decided to do a Blitzkrieg to the point where US troops were entering southern Baghdad and all the Republican Guard that were left after we destoyed their main armored contingent with two bombs were fleeing north out of the city.  It took the Army Corps a month or so to clear out the hulks of tanks and train rolling stock... all it took was a light Marine scouting force and two fighter aircraft to destroy an armored column.  At that point there was no Iraqi Army left nor Republican Guard nor Fedayeen.  By the time 4ID got their equipment they were trying to clean up the last pockets of disorganized resistance and the hunt for Saddam.   If you want 4ID coming from Turkey, you get a different response from Saddam.  It is a non-operative question and counter-factual: fun for speculation, but you then have to postulate what Saddam would do if Turkey helped us.  And the Turks just might take an opportunity to hit the Kurds under the chaos of war... they would have reasons *to* support us that might not *help us*.  If you think we got a mess, imagine a three way between the US, Turks and Kurds.  Turkey has proven most reliable in giving us a PITA and looking to their own interests first.  You want the 4ID out of Turkey? Then what do the Turks do and why?  You think we had problems the way we went... I can imagine far worse with Turkish *help*.

65 Read Clausewitz.  It's the "culmination point".  In other words, all things had to exist and be in the right place for each successive action to prove decisive and culminate in victory.

Petraeus built his plan on, not only historical lessons, but lessons that were being learned inside Iraq.  In Mosul with Petraeus and Tal Afar with McMaster, in Ramadi with the awakening.  Yes, it is true that some things were already being done by our US forces with some success or, at least, laying the bed rock on which our success was built with the surge. 

This is one argument that continues in military circles with people like Col Gentile who is considerably angry that a) the Surge and its architect got most of the credit and b) believes also that the largest influence for the eventual peace was not more US forces, but Iraqis shedding enough blood until one or the other sued for peace.  In which case, on part b) he believes the US wasted many US lives.

We could not have won without all things leading to the next.  It is the way of war.  An army that is always victorious is an army that rarely fights.

The reality is, like the Union victory at Gettysburg and even its loss at Fredricksburg were not indicators of actual over all victory in the civil war, but were the individual stones, both victory and utter route, on which strategy was eventually developed.  Each leading to some aspect of the whole. 

Somewhat fatalistic, I suppose, we could not have one without the other.  We could not have won without any of these experiences or actions.  Could we have "won" the civil war without Sherman marching to the Sea and destroying railroads, stores and manufacturing capabilities?  Maybe, but not in the utter surrender of the south.  The south would have been in a much stronger position for negotiations. 

Could we have won WWII without having experienced the disasters of Dieppe or Anzio or Khaserine Pass? 

Maybe, but they each lead to a change in tactics and strategy.  What we learn by our mistakes are what we use to create winning strategies. As long as you have the will and the capability, you cannot lose except by your own design.  In the end, there are only two things that result in defeat: utter destruction of entire armies or the loss of political will. 

No one could ever argue that our army was being destroyed in Iraq.  Run down, yes.  Destroyed, no.  The alarmist talking about a "broken army" all these years were not talking about its utter destruction, but the fear that it would not be in a condition to confront any greater challenges.  That was entirely a function, though, of politics, not of actual capabilities or even financial probabilities. 

Iraq was not nearly loss simply by bad strategy.  We nearly lost almost solely on lack of political will. 

66

Kat-Mo:

Of course, in the Civil War, many Southerners wanted to keep fighting, guerrilla style.  Bobby Lee talked 'em out of it.  That helped make the victory look more convincing.  The will to fight on was still there.

67 Also, do not forget the Awakening and Surge coincided with increasing Iraqi oil revenues, so most of the somewhat sane actors saw the potential benefits of cooperation.  Instead of plata o plomo -- depleted uranium or petro-dollars.

And a general collapse in the terrorist chain of command; Muggy got hit, bunch of Al-Queda guys started getting hit in Pakistan, etc.  Remember the Dr Z in Afghanistan begging Iraqi thugs to stop killing Arabs and send money.

The culmination point was a broad function of COIN, economics, and real-politik in Iraq.  In the end, the inability of the Copperheads here to pull us out after the 2006 mid-terms dashed their last hope.

68 Kat-Mo, have you ever read this essay about the Iraq war by Alec Rawls? He makes many of the same points you do.

69 4th ID's late entry was a non-entity in how the country fell apart after the fall of Baghdad and Saddam's regime.

Recall we had quite a few forces in and around the area, but they were 'held back' and in a monitor-only mode, and not an 'active' mode while the situation progressed into the insurgency.  It took from April til at least August for the insurgency to gain, as their tactics were still in their infancy; IED's were command detonated from cords attached to them; VBIEDs/HBIEDs were yet to be a factor, and they were mainly on MSR's in and out of Baghdad.  If only the force that was in place AT THE TIME had been permitted to engage in COIN-type activities that have been practiced recently, the insurgecy likely would not have gained the intensity it did.

It certainly would have helped having the additional 4ID manpower, but likely as not they still would have been busy farther north and not a factor in the central and southern Iraq areas where the insurgency grew from (Fallujah, Tikrit, etc).

As far as Basrah is concerned- first off, we would have had to acknowledge that MOST of the strikes hitting around the area were eminating from Iran; we nor the Brittish were likely to admit to that at any time (90% of what was a factor in the area were Iraqi's based in Iran).  Had Britain 'dealt with' the factors preventing real progress at that time in Basrah, they would have been faced with a two-front battle; Mookie's forces north of them flowing into Basrah, and forces using Iran to their east as a base.  NOT a tenable position for their gov't.

Wolf/Blackfive

70

Well, there is still Iran to deal with, but we can certainly enjoy a moment to celebrate what we have accomplished so far. The credit, IMHO, goes to President Bush.  In the end, the buck stopped with him, and he had the iron will to see this through, to support a change in strategy and give it time to work.  Had he listened to the Democrats and others, we would have lost, simple as that.

Things can still go south, and there is no gurantee that Iraq will not collapse into dictatorship and/or civil war after we leave (they did before when they became independent from the British back in the 1930's) but after this no one can say we don't support democracy and we didn't give them every chance to make things better for themselves.

If there is any justice, there will be memorial statues to Bush the Liberator in free Iraq.

71 If only the force that was in place AT THE TIME had been permitted to engage in COIN-type activities that have been practiced recently, the insurge[n]cy likely would not have gained the intensity it did.

I think the most important part of that is that it would not have "gained the intensity".  Not that it would not have happened, nor been as long.  It might have been longer.  Or, the intensity may have actually ensued a little later with greater force if the Sunnis had continued to feel marginalized. 

I would agree that 4IDs impact in the insurgency was nothing.  It's real and sole impact was at the beginning of the war.  Even with Turkey refusing entry, the negotiations with Turkey in public kept Saddam off balance and a part of his army in the north for fear of that invasion.  We were able to use it without  actually putting it on the ground.

Whether 4ID was in there or not, there was no intent to do anything politically with the military in regards to securing Iraq politically or the population physically. 

The military, DoD, State and even President were not on the same page in terms of what to do in Iraq or who was responsible for doing so.

One of the books I read was Generation Kill.  It had nothing to do with the insurgency.  However, right at the end, one of the last activities seems rather representative of the general attitude of the military and its separation, purpose or not, from doing anything to secure Iraq after roundly defeating Saddam.  In it, Fick and his marines had entered into a neighborhood near Iraq.  They were tired and had lost some men.  As they were "bedding down", Iraqi neighborhood elders and mayors had come to the military and asked them to deploy some forces to secure their neighborhoods.  A commander came to Fick's group and directed them to deploy for security.

Fick declined stating that his men were not trained for policing the population, were not originally tasked for such actions and were exhausted.  The commander did not press them to deploy.

Now, I believe what this really indicated at a micro level was the entire army up to the JCS opinion that they were not going to do "nation building".  They were still insisting on the Powell doctrine of warfare.  Basically, it was a guarantee that the army would never be mired down again into an unwinnable foreign insurgency. 

These are not conjectures.  Even Tommy Franks writing on the subject seemed to infer his own aversion to military imposed "nation building" and put a lot of the blame on State.  The failure of the Bush administration to forge a consensus and uniform plan between all three was a very big failure of leadership.  One might also give some blame to the generals who seemed to resist at every turn doing what was necessary.  Of course, they are all sitting smuggly back on their retirements proclaiming they were right to resist nation building.  I wonder if any of them actually admit to the idea that they might have been wrong and may have contributed to the advent of the deadly insurgency? 

Their refusal to act on the expectations of the administration or to consider it had a direct impact.  Failure to transition to peace keeping efforts or plan for it. 

One could say the same about the State department.  In all things, Bush was lucky to finally have come up with Petraeus and Crocker who finally had unity of effort. 

Last, I think that we forget about the impact of the political shaping of the war.  I mean that to be the "liberation of Iraq" as opposed to simply deposing Saddam or even WMD and terrorism.  That above all else resulted in the shaping of military and political actions that kept such things as imposing martial law and a military governor that was so effective under McArthur in Japan from ever occurring. 

72 Had Britain 'dealt with' the factors preventing real progress at that time in Basrah, they would have been faced with a two-front battle; Mookie's forces north of them flowing into Basrah, and forces using Iran to their east as a base.  NOT a tenable position for their gov't.

It wasn't tenable for us either with the great fear of opening a third front with Iran.  The one other thing that Petraeus can be credited for is putting Iranian complicity out in the open for the rest of the world, for the US and for Iraq.  He created a fear for the Iranians that they had hoped to avoid.  For all their running of mouths about annihilating americans if they were attacked, I think they must fear that direct confrontation the most.  Petraeus understood that.  Eventually, so did Bush. 

Now, of course, Obama et al would like to ratchet that fear down and return to some status quo.  Honestly, I don't think that is possible.  There is a new reality in the middle east and it had ought to shape our policy for the future, not rely on the past.

73 The War of Wrath in Beleriand

Yes, but that required the Battled of Unnumbered Tears, as well as the death of all the oath-takers and kin-slayers, as well as a union of men and Elves.

74 I was with the 4th ID in 2003.  We had to come the long way around and go in through Kuwait and follow 3rd ID's route.  We crossed into Iraq as the ground war was winding down.  the Division took over the area between Baghdad and Mosul.

And it was the same story for us as it was for 3rd ID, the 101st, and the 173rd. We had no plans to fight a COIN fight, and just muddled through.

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