Gen. McCaffrey's Latest AAR from Iraq

Is Obama really prepared to deliberately lose a war almost entirely won?

We'll see. Fortunately, he has the nuance of thought allowing him to repudiate almost every prior position.

. THE BOTTOM LINE:
a. The United States is now clearly in the end game in Iraq to successfully achieve what should be our principle objectives:
• The withdrawal of the majority of our US ground combat forces in Iraq in the coming 36 months.
• Leaving behind an operative civil state and effective Iraqi security forces.
• An Iraqi state which is not in open civil war among the Shia, the Sunnis, and the Kurds.
• And an Iraqi nation which is not at war with its six neighboring states.
b. The security situation is clearly still subject to sudden outrage at any moment by Al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) or to degradation because of provocative behavior by the Maliki government. However, the bottom line is a dramatic and growing momentum for economic and security stability which is unlikely to be reversible. I would not characterize the situation as fragile. It is just beyond the tipping point.
• Daily attacks hit a high of 180+ in July of 2007--- they are now down to 20+ per day.
• Civilian deaths dropped from 3700 per month in Dec 2006 --- to 400 + in October 2008.
• US military deaths dropped from 110 in May of 2007---to 10 in October 2008.
• Iraqi Security Forces KIA dropped from 310 in June 2007--- to 50 in October 2008.)

[UPDATE-PA] Link to the whole West Point memo (PDF format). I'd been working up a post on this and was going to cite the original source, but Ace beat me to it, so here's the original.

Posted by: Ace at 08:48 PM

Comments

1 Obama may or may not.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 08:51 PM (hawOV)

2 The One is trying to figure out how to take credit for an Iraq victory.

Posted by: mesablue at November 17, 2008 08:53 PM (5yNaE)

3 My understanding is that the 10 American deaths in October were not combat related. While any loss is tragic, there's a huge difference between vehicle accidents and combat deaths. The war is over. We won.

Posted by: Andy at November 17, 2008 08:57 PM (4Wq+J)

4 "The One is trying to figure out how to take credit for an Iraq victory."

It could be.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 08:58 PM (hawOV)

5 "We won."

You're winning perhaps, but the future can't be predicted.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 08:59 PM (hawOV)

6 "I'd been working up a post on this and was going to cite the original source, but Ace beat me to it, so here's the original."

One of you had to be first. Or even tied.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:03 PM (hawOV)

7 Further down in the full memo (see the PDF link I added to Ace's post), McCaffrey adds a large dollop of CYA listing all sorts of way it could still go wrong.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 17, 2008 09:05 PM (OqXyp)

8 "... McCaffrey adds a large dollop of CYA listing all sorts of way it could still go wrong."

Yes, but it could still go right.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:06 PM (hawOV)

9 Body count. In the last six months

Chicago - 292 killed (murdered)

Iraq - 221

Chicago is a combat zone.

Who is in charge?

(The leadership in Illinois )

Senator Barack Obama (Democrat)

Senator Dick Durbin (Democrat)

Representative Jesse Jackson Jr. (Democrat)

Governor. Rod Blogojevich (Democrat)

House leader Mike Madigan (Democrat)

Attorney General. Lisa Madigan (daughter of Mike), (Democrat)

Mayor Richard M. Daley (son of former Mayor Richard J. Daley) (Democrat)

Of course they're all blaming each other.

Why?

They can't blame Republicans, there aren't any!

State pension fund $44 Billion in debt, worst in country. Cook County (Chicago )

Sales tax 10.25% highest in country. (Look it up if you want).

Chicago school system one of the worst in the country.

This is the political culture that Obama comes from in Illinois . And he says he is going to 'fix' Washington politics?

Posted by: sickinmass at November 17, 2008 09:08 PM (/i4dU)

10 sickinmass@9, some of your comment is in large font and some in smaller. You've also mixed serif and sans-serif font family.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:10 PM (hawOV)

11 Obama said last night on 60 minutes that he was going ahead with his plan to start the immediate drawdown of US combat troops as soon as he takes office.

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 09:11 PM (uJzOr)

12 robtr, sometimes Obama doesn't do what he says and other times he does.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:12 PM (hawOV)

13 One of the more interesting points McCaffrey makes (perhaps the most interesting in the whole memo) is that Iranian meddling is still going on even when its clear they're losing and alienating some of the Shia in the south by continuing to meddle.

There has to be a reason for the Iranians continued failing destabilization attempts when there is no apparent upside anymore. Divining that reason should be a top priority of the Obama administration.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 17, 2008 09:12 PM (OqXyp)

14 "There has to be a reason for the Iranians continued failing destabilization attempts when there is no apparent upside anymore."

You could be on to something, however, maybe they're just being irrational like some people say they are.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:14 PM (hawOV)

15 I see that Ace or another blogger has edited sickinmass's comment, getting rid of the different font sizes, but leaving both the serif and sans-serif fonts.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:21 PM (hawOV)

16 #9,

Don't talk about Chicago like that or everyone will want to move here. You forgot Urkel Stroger, the Cook County Board president. He's as corrupt as hell too. The whole friggin' state is corrupt starting with Blowjobevich.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 17, 2008 09:22 PM (aw8cA)

17 sickinmass@9, some of your comment is in large font and some in smaller.

I just normalized that grotesqueness. It was obvious from the HTML that it was a cut/paste job off some other web page. div tags trying to put borders around stuff (which doesn't work on this blog). Whoever did the original HTML was a boob (probably output from some text editor). Grossly inefficient stuff.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 17, 2008 09:22 PM (OqXyp)

18 "Don't talk about Chicago like that or everyone will want to move here."

Well, not everyone.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:23 PM (hawOV)

19 "Whoever did the original HTML was a boob (probably output from some text editor). Grossly inefficient stuff."

Ah, that's true. Sometimes the AoSHQ WYSIWYG HTML editor is very faithful at reproducing cut and paste formatted text, but sometimes it reproduces bad coding, for example, from email programs (terrible) and MS FrontPage created websites.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:24 PM (hawOV)

20 Sickinmass, that was really good.

Posted by: mare at November 17, 2008 09:26 PM (X1fsj)

21 A prediction if you will allow, I bet The One Screws the pooch so badly that he gets himself impeached during his first term. Given that, the Hill would have a perfect oppourtunity to run against bin Biden in the 2012 primaries

Posted by: Dave in PB at November 17, 2008 09:27 PM (CTSya)

Obama enjoys blowjob from McCain!

McCain later told a friend that Obama "couldn't have been nicer."

McCain was apparently pleased that the meeting was real and substantive, one source tells ABC News, rather than just the traditional post-election photo op, since he kept telling Obama how much he appreciated the meeting.

From Jake Tapper at ABC

Fuck you McCain

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 09:27 PM (uJzOr)

23 "Sickinmass, that was really good."

It was good, but it wasn't comprehensive in every single respect.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:28 PM (hawOV)

24 "Obama enjoys blowjob from McCain!"

Okay, but is there any reason to think McCain didn't enjoy it either?

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:28 PM (hawOV)

Okay, but is there any reason to think McCain didn't enjoy it either?

What are talking about? He said Obama couldn't have been nicer didn't he?

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 09:31 PM (uJzOr)

26 "He said Obama couldn't have been nicer didn't he?"

Isn't being nice a virtue in some respects, and only at other times a problem?

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:32 PM (hawOV)

Isn't being nice a virtue in some respects, and only at other times a problem?

Could you speak English, my Canadian isn't so good?

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 09:34 PM (uJzOr)

28 "Could you speak English, my Canadian isn't so good?"

I'm saying on one hand conservatives don't want McCain to bend over backwards for Obama, but on the other hand a peaceful transition of power is enhanced by civility from the losing candidate.

Of course, some people think resistance to Obama's plans could be enhanced by opposing them early on and that McCain will work closely with Obama on a lot of issues because he's really a motherfucking Democrat at heart.

Both positions might have merit.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:36 PM (hawOV)

29 During the primaries, wasn't Hillary calling for a much more aggressive withdrawal of troops then Obama? I thought she wanted to start troop withdrawals immediately and have them all out in something like six months. Hmm - and now she might be SOS.

Posted by: mark at November 17, 2008 09:41 PM (Kl3z0)

30 "Hmm - and now she might be SOS."

Or might not.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:43 PM (hawOV)

31 Obama enjoys blowjob from McCain!"

Michelle stood nearby, pen light at the ready, to verify he swallowed.

Posted by: eman at November 17, 2008 09:43 PM (c+KEH)

I think chicago jesus will pull the troops out for the sole purpose of bragging about how he pulled the troops out, as advertised.

if iraq becomes the cambodia of the 21st century, so what? those people aren't voters, after all.

Posted by: Jones at November 17, 2008 09:44 PM (KOkrW)

33 "Michelle stood nearby, pen light at the ready, to verify he swallowed."

You don't know that for sure. She could have, but equally it's possible she wasn't even in the room or that no oral sex took place whether Michelle was there or not.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:45 PM (hawOV)

>Michelle stood nearby, pen light at the ready, to verify he swallowed.

I thought the flashlight was to help find all the tiny dicks

Posted by: Jones at November 17, 2008 09:46 PM (KOkrW)

35 "if iraq becomes the cambodia of the 21st century, so what?"

So what indeed? It might not even happen. And if it does, whose to say what the end result of it will be on Obama's Presidency?

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:46 PM (hawOV)

36 "... the flashlight was to help find all the tiny dicks."

I think a flashlight could help with that, but wouldn't it also be useful for other things, like finding lost coins or reading a map?

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:47 PM (hawOV)

but on the other hand a peaceful transition of power is enhanced by civility from the losing candidate.

Christoff, if McCain told Obama that he was an inexperienced commie socialist and that he could pound sand with his idiotic half baked proposals we would still have a peaceful transition of power. That's just the way we roll.

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 09:52 PM (uJzOr)

38 1860 may have been an exception to that rolling, robtr, although Lincoln did escape assassination on his way into the capital.

Oh the other hand, the other transitions of power have been peaceful.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:56 PM (hawOV)

39 we would still have a peaceful transition of power.

Until the swearing in, Bush could still proclaim a national emergency, declare martial law, render the election invalid and appoint himself dictator for life...or so I've been told by countless moonbats.

Courage.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 17, 2008 09:57 PM (OqXyp)

40 OT,

Here's David Frum making some points you may or may not agree with. Frums' accuracy depends on whether the American electorate is moving left or not and, if it is, whether you can or cannot reverse this trend.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 09:58 PM (hawOV)

41 "Until the swearing in, Bush could still proclaim a national emergency, declare martial law, render the election invalid and appoint himself dictator for life..."

That may not be the right thing to do. There's some question about whether Caesar was a good leader, even though he was popular with many of the poor and with most soldiers.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:01 PM (hawOV)

42 1860 wasn't a question of transition of power, it was a question of how much power the federal government believed it possed after the election.

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 10:02 PM (uJzOr)

43 possessed*

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 10:02 PM (uJzOr)

44 Guys, watch this video. It was promoted on Hannity.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mm1KOBMg1Y8

Posted by: locus ceruleus at November 17, 2008 10:04 PM (e2mBS)

45 "1860 wasn't a question of transition of power, it was a question of how much power the federal government believed it possed after the election."

The assassination plot on Lincoln before he even reached Washington may -- may, I stress that -- have been an effort to prevent him from gaining power peacefully.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:04 PM (hawOV)

46 I generally like Iraqis. I don't want to see them get screwed. And, of course, I don't want the mission pissed on. Bad for morale.

Posted by: Amanda at November 17, 2008 10:04 PM (WHzLu)

47 "possessed*"

That's the modern spelling, but you wouldn't be the first person to spell it otherwise.

"Guys, watch this video."

There are lots of guys here, but gals too.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:05 PM (hawOV)

48 "I generally like Iraqis."

I generally like them too, especially the women, but not all.

"I don't want to see them get screwed."

That could make a person jealous, if you meant that literally, or sad, if you meant it figuratively.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:06 PM (hawOV)

49 Christoph,

Go ahead and be comprehensive please.

Posted by: mare at November 17, 2008 10:08 PM (X1fsj)

50 "Go ahead and be comprehensive please."

There are advantages and disadvantages to that suggested course of action.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:09 PM (hawOV)

I am so proud of our men and women in uniform I can't articulate it properly. My dad was a career Marine and fought in four wars, yet even he says this War on Terror is so different. The enemy is so insidious--to hide behind civilians, to capitalise on religious sectarian rivalries, to feed hatred into children, women, the mentally challenged...but our military leaders kept at it, our young men and women kept going, and Pres. Bush, God bless him, kept his resolve, ...and we look at an Iraq very different from 3 years ago.

This has not escaped the American public for the most part. No matter who they voted for-I believe there is great pride in many American hearts in what has been accomplished in Iraq. The Iraqis have a chance they would never have had without the toppling of the dictator. I hope they make the most of it and a stable, healthy country evolves in time.

Posted by: teri at November 17, 2008 10:10 PM (ejjV5)

52 The term "guy" can apply to men or women.

Posted by: eman at November 17, 2008 10:10 PM (c+KEH)

53 Mare..Christoph..Purple Avenger..THANKS!
Was in Jesus's chitown last week. Won't be going back.
signed,
a moron.

Posted by: sickinmass at November 17, 2008 10:11 PM (/i4dU)

54 There are assassination plots on all presidents and most presidential candidates. That's also the way we roll, only it isn't the losing party trying to kill them but usually some Canadians.

Posted by: robtr at November 17, 2008 10:11 PM (uJzOr)

55 I'm afraid to say anything, Christoph will be all over it, unless he isn't.

Posted by: captspaulding at November 17, 2008 10:11 PM (LVT6e)

Christoph,

Stop trying to prove that you can be just as annoying when you don't have an opinion as when you do.

Posted by: TiffVegas at November 17, 2008 10:12 PM (fdx47)

57 The term "guy" can apply to men or women.

Sometimes yes, sometimes no.

"No matter who they voted for-I believe there is great pride in many American hearts in what has been accomplished in Iraq."

Some might say you're smoking crack, I prefer to think you're kindhearted, although I could see either as a possibility.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:12 PM (hawOV)

58 Christoph,

"Guys, watch this video."

"There are lots of guys here, but gals too."

I don't claim to be anything other than a moron. That was stated as an all inclusive modern colloquialism rather than a distinction of gender. I am sorry if you felt excluded

Posted by: locus ceruleus at November 17, 2008 10:13 PM (e2mBS)

59 God bless our wonderful troops.

Posted by: Filly at November 17, 2008 10:13 PM (VLsit)

60 "Christoph,

"Stop trying to prove that you can be just as annoying when you don't have an opinion as when you do."

Bingo, it took a chick. Well done!

Now fuck off, morons! I'm going to do something.

And God bless.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:14 PM (hawOV)

61 There's still a lot of moonbats talking about Iraq as a lost cause. Some people just never get the memo...

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 17, 2008 10:19 PM (OqXyp)

62 Somehow this girl managed to watch the vid after being referred to as a guy. I also understand that mankind includes me. Amusing vid. Thanks for the link.

God bless the troops indeed. I work hard at cheerleading my soldier's morale. I think the next four years are gonna wear me out. Is there an adopt a soldier's morale program? Everyone should adopt one for the duration.

Posted by: Amanda at November 17, 2008 10:23 PM (WHzLu)

63 There is something here to be proud of. Our troops believed that good could be accomplished even when the majority of the public wilted. These men and women, of whom America may not be worthy, have sacrificed for a people they never knew. People who's religion and race were the make-up of the 9-11 perpetrators. The troops are the people the Iraqi's were waiting for. Good-on-ya!

Posted by: locus ceruleus at November 17, 2008 10:25 PM (e2mBS)

Nah, Christoph, I can't afford crack-but you're probably right. The way one side of our political debate sees the troops and their mission in Iraq and the way the other side sees it is opposed. 'Tis true.

The PC infection cometh for us all...sorry about that!

Posted by: teri at November 17, 2008 10:28 PM (ejjV5)

65 How about:
http://www.adoptaussoldier.org/

Posted by: locus ceruleus at November 17, 2008 10:28 PM (e2mBS)

66 WOW! I am at #61 comments now. And christoph has at least 90% of em. All correcting...condesending, or ? I came here for thoughts, perhaps including those of others about the obama plan to leave Iraq. Not Chris Mathews tingle. Where does this fool get off?

Posted by: Hugh Jass at November 17, 2008 10:32 PM (fFPJb)

67 I wouldn't put it past President Zero to pull the rug out from under our guys in Iraq. He strikes me as the kind of guy that would fuck a person in the ass and not even have the common courtesy to give him a reacharound.

Posted by: Jones at November 17, 2008 10:33 PM (KOkrW)

68 For those of you playing the home game: That's 65 total posts, 28 by Christoph for ratio of 43%.

Way to go Christoph. At this rate you may have your own blog in no time.

Posted by: adamthemad at November 17, 2008 10:34 PM (aVVGO)

69 "Is Obama really prepared to deliberately lose a war almost entirely won?"

The One is fighting another war that requires the defeat of freedom.
He's not losing that war. He's winning.

The One does not suffer from modesty.
And given the fact that the entire planet is behind him, he doesn't really need to.

Posted by: RayJ at November 17, 2008 10:36 PM (87de7)

70 Christoph is quite the hall monitor today.

Posted by: Shannon at November 17, 2008 10:39 PM (q0Z3p)

This is sweet. After all the derision and vitriol Bush endured for "staying the course", and "standing them up so we can stand down", I couldn't be more pleased.

I NEVER doubted the man, or the military. It's even sweeter, since I have skin in this game.

A huge THANK YOU to all the military for their effort and sacrifice in this mission.

Posted by: irongrampa at November 17, 2008 10:39 PM (ud5dN)

72 @ 13, Purple Avenger

There has to be a reason for the Iranians continued failing destabilization attempts when there is no apparent upside anymore. Divining that reason should be a top priority of the Obama administration.

Maybe the Iranians are just too blinded by their own ideological fantasies to see the handwriting on the wall like, a generation earlier, the Soviets in Afghanistan.

Posted by: arbuthnot at November 17, 2008 10:53 PM (Tw7Fm)

73 Goin' back down to the Star Trek thread where I feel more at home. There's something about Kirk's "I don't like to lose" or Apollo 13's "Failure is Not an Option" that is essentially American to me. I can't help it if I see it in our people in Iraq & Afghanistan, too. They just never seem to give up.

Posted by: teri at November 17, 2008 11:03 PM (ejjV5)

74 "Is Obama really prepared to deliberately lose a war almost entirely won?"

Why not...

...Nixon did.

That "Bottom Line" list looks awfully similar to the conditions that existed in Viet Nam when we pulled out.

Posted by: G at November 17, 2008 11:15 PM (FAYNo)

75 One of you had to be first. Or even tied.

This is so not the NFL I knew.

Posted by: Donovan McNabb at November 17, 2008 11:16 PM (cbBOa)

76 LMAO!

Posted by: sickinmass at November 17, 2008 11:52 PM (/i4dU)

77 Why not......Nixon did.

What war did Nixon lose? Certainly not Vietnam. That was a congressional surrender, not presidential.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at November 18, 2008 12:18 AM (OqXyp)

78 I was thinking more along the lines of handing over your hawt relatives for a mil dating game but okay... http://www.adoptaussoldier.org/ is a good substitute. Thanks, locus!

Posted by: Amanda at November 18, 2008 12:56 AM (WHzLu)

Link to the whole West Point memo (PDF format).

As a graduate of West Point, let me disabue you of the notion that west-point.org has anything official to do with West Point. It is a 501(c)(3) organization specializing in networking for West Point graduates and fundraising for donations to West Point. Any graduate can post just about anything to the site.

Posted by: Steve L. at November 18, 2008 08:01 AM (o0YD+)

More importantly, McCaffrey is a tool. Having served around him (and fortunately not FOR him,) he had a reputation of flying off the handle and firing people for the smallest of reasons. Normally, being relieved in the Army is a fatal blow. Your career just doesn't recover from that. I know several officers who were relieved by McCaffrey who are now colonels and lieutenant colonels. So many people in the Army know of McCaffrey's reputation that his actions did not taint careers.

Also, don't forget that it was his division that failed to close the door on the Republican Guard in Desert Storm and made Iraqi Freedom necessary.

Posted by: Steve L. at November 18, 2008 08:08 AM (o0YD+)

81 Barry will take the credit for any success in Iraq and Bush will take the blame for any failure. Just like on the economy.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at November 18, 2008 11:40 AM (1Jaio)

82 I served under McCaffrey and wonder if anyone else out there remembers his COC ceremony at Ft Stewart. Class A's with flakvests and kevlar, middle of summer. If I'm not mistaken 4 people went into heat stroke. I was at the barraks on the last day of my leave. He's a total tool and a FUCKING ASSHOLE beyond anything I have ever come across before or since, I think he is insane. I met him twice, the first time was unnoteworthy really. The second time was in the feild, where he had us in MOPP2 with flakvest and kevlar in 110F (wet bulb) heat under threat of article 15 if we so much as unzipped or mopp gear. this asshat had the audacity to show up at our firing point in soft cap and BDUs I challenged and passed him, which he got wrong, he used the next days which we hadn't been told yet. then wouldn't let the prick onto the point. I knew who he was which is exactly why I wouldn't let him on. This went on and on but I didn't budge. I figured I was getting busted either way I played this one so I had some fun. I almost wound up butstrocking the pricks driver (a major "DO YOU KNOW WHO THIS IS?!" yes, asshole) before my Capt showed up. At my Field grade article 15, I was asked why I wouldn't let him through. I stood at rigid attention and I replied "He was out of uniform, SIR." It worked, the Lt Col almost blew coffee out of his nose and let me go. I saw him on tv when clinton made him drug czar somehow in 3 years he went from 2 star general to 4 star.

Posted by: mydemonsdriveon at November 18, 2008 11:44 AM (e5kuB)

83 60 "Christoph,

"Stop trying to prove that you can be just as annoying when you don't have an opinion as when you do."

Bingo, it took a chick. Well done!

Now fuck off, morons! I'm going to do something.

And God bless.

Posted by: Christoph at November 17, 2008 10:14 PM

This was some dumb little game our own special Canadian douchebag was playing. He declared himself the winner and left right around the time most of us realized he was being slightly more obtuse and annoying than normal.

Kinda sad, isn't it?

Posted by: ConcernedCitizen at November 18, 2008 01:34 PM (hmDr/)

84 I believe we may win the battle, but will ultimately loose the war. When the Bush administration allowed Iraq (and Afganistan) to put shiria law in their constitutions, we know it is lost. I am sorry, but I support Pres. Bush and our war on terror, but that never should have been allowed. Newsmen arrested and sentenced to death, then reduced to 20 years in prison (well, maybe not such a bad thing?) just because they were investigating women's rights? Don't think so.

Posted by: TimothyJ at November 18, 2008 04:30 PM (IKKIf)

85 In the name of "peace" we'll see our soldier's lives spent for nothing. For what did they die then? If Obama has his way, he'll be giving up a battle that was won by American's, and all of their sacrifices will have been for nothing.

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