1 I need a drink.

And I don't drink...

2 ACE it was 60-40 Kerry in 2004, are these definitely real, if they are it is a good sign.

3 Or they could have fixed the exit polls.

Nah, exit polling is a self-selecting, so many variables act of political masturbation.  The only reason they exist is that a lot of people got home an hour ago and want to see SOMETHING on the 6pm news.

4 Fox News is wasting time interviewing political partisans about the exit polls as if they'll say anything other than the predicted spin.

5 It's gonna hurt even more if McCain loses close, but the hell with it, I officially have a scintilla of hope (as opposed to Hope^tm).

6 Looks like I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing exit polls.

7 More cocked up horseshit. Nothing to see here. I'm waiting for the actual results.

8 THESE...ARE...GREAT...NUMBERS!
This is the best 5pm news the GOP has EVER had.

9 Oh shit.  Bad news I had prepared myself for.  Good news is freaking me out.

10 Forget it.  The fix is in!

11 it means we are WHOMPIN the UnOne!!

PUMAS know their exit polls fer shure, they ALL overshot an UnOne victory

not sure why ingraham is so wigged, the White Men exits on Fox were fabulous for us and the VA numbers are incredible

also how did we manage to get 1/3 of NEW voters for MAC!! That is awesome!!

if the exits are showing us ahead in VA which they are on Fox, we are doing just fine

now everyone, get your HAKA on in the face of these BS exits..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8VUbjcj7pM
Torjan Football HAKA

12 If nothing else it will be nice to have tight exit polls putting the fear of Obama into the media covering this thing. Perhaps they'll be less trigger happy to call early races

13 oH NOES!

14 It's not your fault Ace - it's the close proximity to Allah that got you. Cheers!

15

Report Acknowledges Inaccuracies in 2004 Exit Polls

By Richard Morin and Claudia Deane
Washington Post Staff Writers
Thursday, January 20, 2005; Page A06

Interviewing for the 2004 exit polls was the most inaccurate of any in the past five presidential elections as procedural problems compounded by the refusal of large numbers of Republican voters to be surveyed led to inflated estimates of support for John F. Kerry, according to a report released yesterday by the research firms responsible for the flawed surveys.

The exit pollsters emphasized that the flaws did not produce a single incorrect projection of the winner in a state on election night. But “there were 26 states in which the estimates produced by the exit poll data overstated the vote for John Kerry . . . and there were four states in which the exit poll estimates overstated the vote for George W. Bush,” said Joe Lenski of Edison Media Research and Warren Mitofsky of Mitofsky International.

16 my boner has been slowly growing throughout this day....

17 PLEASE, if you have time we need you at the GOTV for the McCain camp in CO and NM.  Call to see if you can help in your area!!

18 It's not in the "Obamas" and the "McCains" in the exit polls, it's in the "fuck-off's".

19 No time like the present to start, Naquamel.

20 I am now changing my position to "There's a chance." But only to that.

heh. And by Midnight PST you'll change your position to "I told you bitches we were gonna win!"

21 2004 Exits from NBC: http://tinyurl.com/68q8tm

22

It rained hard all night here, but the sun came out this AM, and has been out all day. I'm taking that as a sign.

I can barely contain my desire to see the entirety of the MSM eat copious amounts of crow.

Go Mac!!!111!!

23 I was proud to vote for Mac and Sarah this morning in PA.  I want them to win, but honestly I'll be satisfied with enough remaining Rs in the Senate to keep Obama/Nancy/Harry moored to reality.

Booting Murtha would be nice.  As would getting Gregoire out. 

24 Listen, morons-- Virginia was essentially called for Kerry in 2004 for the identical exit number. He lost by EIGHT AND A HALF FUCKING POINTS.

25 Great...one exit polls says Obama +15 in PA and another is +4

WTF?

26

It is still better to be close - the Dems can then claim a bit less of a mandate.

 

Still, this is giving me a bit of hope -  but if we win it is likely to be the Electoral College without the popular.

 

Also, remember that even if we win, McCain is going to suck - he'll be up against a strong Dem Congress which he is inclined to agree with half the time.  He will have approval ratings of 15% from day 3, since all Dems will hate him and all of us will hate him when he starts pushing Shamnesty. 

27 9 Oh shit.  Bad news I had prepared myself for.  Good news is freaking me out.

I know. The more I read, the more nervous I am becoming. I don't know how I'll be able to drink tonight.

28 sure isn't looking like a blowout, no wonder O looked nervous

29 The day is growing shorter, and my penis is growing longer.

30 There's also the possibility that Republicans, who dodged exit pollsters in the past, are more willing to say "Hell no, I stand against the socialist and with John the War Hero, Sarah the Reformer, and Joe the Plumber."

No - there's a much higher chance this year of McCain voters saying, "Fuck you" to exit pollsters.  Americans are savvy, Baby!!  They know what shit these people put out.

31 I officially have a Scintilla of Hope.  It's kind of like a Quantum of Solace, but with fewer explosions.

32 25 Great...one exit polls says Obama +15 in PA and another is +4

WTF?

Posted by: Cedric at November 04, 2008 07:02 PM (ntSJp)

One was taken in Pittsburgh.  The other was taking in DEEP, DEEP Philly where the Black Panthers are taking the polls.

33 I"m going CRAZY.

I gotta get out, go to Costco buy some food & gas. Come home, lock & get ready to load for the ensuing riots. Won't be going outside for the next few days.

Either way - May God have mercy on this country.

34 There's also the sobering possibility that more Obama voters voted early, and were missed by the exit pollsters, and we're only seeing the (however skewed) results of a more McCain leaning election day voters.

And there's the fact that non-existent voters, who still seem to vote the numbers up to 100% in places like Philly, weren't polled at all (since they didn't exit, having never arrived.)

So get out and vote, damnit, and don't believe anything until Sarah Palin tells you to.

35 Cedric--

The +15 number is where they poll four black people for every one white one.

36 FYI - these Gawker numbers are bullshit. Drudge has the right numbers.

37 Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit! Oh, shit!

38 Fox exit polls are so slanted that they have only 12% of people saying they will be excited if McCain wins. Only 8% of people interviewed say that McCain can bring change. The polls are way way heavy on Dems, and we're this close?

Taste the hope, my friends. I'm still biting my nails though.

39 35 Yeah, sounds like it, but I thought there was only one exit polling firm. What a bunch of bullshit -- these fucking numbers are just made up.

40 Greetings from beautiful Iraq. Voted for McCain via absentee ballot awhile back. Keeping my fingers crossed... Hey, is Red Dog still around?

41 I'll believe it when I see it. But now I am optimistic

42 I'm throwing a party and you're NOT invited!

43 I'm watching everybody loves raymond until I go to the republicans party here in buffalo. I'm too jittery. I was I had the skills to blog and have an audience because I have texted or called almost everyone I know. We have a crazy close Congress race here between a conservative and a feminist environmentalist. I live in a republican district that went 55-45 for bush and we are actually have trouble here...

44 The reason that exit-polling isn't helpful either way is that it doesn't account for the early voting.  Christ, I have no idea what to do/say/think

45 For some reason I'm getting the same vibe I had during the 2002 mid-term races.  Anyone else?

BTW, the drink of the evening will be K Cider, England's best outside of high-test Strongbow.

46 36 FYI - these Gawker numbers are bullshit. Drudge has the right numbers.

Posted by: Tabris at November 04, 2008 07:06 PM (tFC9w)

Oh - thank you for that, Tabris.  Get bent, 'turfer.  You're going down - HARD.

47 36 I disagree with you, Drudge is only showing one number the 15 in PA.

If these numbers were baloney you wouldn't have Megyn Kelly warning to read numbers carefully because of the Obama early voters.

48 Actually, Kerry won PA by 1.5%, not 5:

2,793,847 2,938,095 2,656 21,185 6,318 6,319

49 I voted for McCain, and I won't be particularly excited if he wins.

Relieved, yes.  Excited, no.

Obama would be bad for the country in the short term, but his presidency would be such a clusterfuck, it would be good for the conservative movement in the longer term.  My concern for the military and judicial appointments forced me to vote McCain, but I have no illusions . . . a President McCain would be a big government guy.  Maybe less so than a President Obama, but still . . .

Shit.  I'm depressing myself.

50 By the way, Kerry won PA by 2.5.  PA is Red this year.  Thank you, Barry.  Thank you, Murtha.

51

I for one shall bitterly cling to my pessimism and sense of impending doom.

Don't forget- dead Democrats may vote, but they probably don't participate in exit polls.

52 In the Fox exit polls, Michelle Obama has a huge lead over Cindy McCain on who would be a good First Lady. NO. FRAKKING. WAY.

53 Major Garrett on FOX just said that Team Barry is sending frantic messages to MO and NC to GOTV.
Unless a historical trend of large GOP late voting does not happen then the odds of pulling this off are very real
And Barry knows it..

54 Kerry won PA by less than 1%.

55 I've chewed off all my fingernails and it's not even 4.00 pm on the west coast..Once I'm down to the quick, it's time to bring out the vodka..

56 Not a Axelturfer - the Gawker numbers are made up by a bunch of asshole liberals on their site. Drudge has the real numbers.

57 "Big" isn't a number. I should know. I teach math.

58 Bat chain puller--  Isn't that a Captain Beefheart line?  As for the close polls--  who knows--  maybe lots of voters actually remember 1984 and Animal Farm from high school English.  Obama and his crew are easily the most sinister bunch of nasties I have ever seen in American politics.  Schumer today calling talk radio the equivalent of pornography? 

Here in southern Virginia, I was heartened by the two robo calls made to my home by obnoxious sounding yankee voices instructing me to vote Obama and directing me to my polling place, taking special care to mispronounce the name of the local high school which is also our town name.  Hahahaha.        

59 Heck, I hope my man Lalor pulls it out!

I was at my dinky Metro North station last night, handing out fliers for a couple hours during rush hour (it only platforms 4 cars), and the opponent John Hall showed up for an hour. I thought that extremely odd, as the station is so small. I barely handed out 50 fliers last night and handed off what was left over to Greg Ball's folks this morning.

I'm so delusional, I think Mac will do pretty well in NY. Hey, a girl can dream. He won't win it, duh, but I think he may hold a respectable number -- and it will be thanks to the PUMAs! I love you guys!

60 I got the makers out before 3.

Buy the ticket, take the ride.

61

Well we can certainly say that Obama's not up by +12 nationally if this is how it's going.....

When do the first serious results come in?

62 Not only that, Scout, but my real fear about McCain is that he'll drag the Republican party (and thus, the "center" of opinion) further to the Left.

But that's a battle to fight after Jan. 20th. Until then, Palin is the "real" candidate for President, and I just voted for her a little bit ago.

63 BTW, no early voting in PA.

64 Ace, you quoted my post!!!! I'll be in my bunk.

Even though you're apparently not a Captain Beefheart fan.

65 Go to this map and click on Pennsylvania. See what you get.

66

But then, exit polls showed a +20 Kerry edge in PA. Turned out Kerry won, but by 5 or so.

Kerry won Pennsylvania by 2.5%, unless Wikipedia is lying to me.

67 MSNBC still not talking exit poll numbers concentrating on issues votes not voter breakdown numbers hmmmm.

68 CNN showing the Holocron...

69 I'm drunk enough that I saw the PayPal button upper left, do it while you can still reid.

70 McCain is going to pull this off.

71 For some reason I'm getting the same vibe I had during the 2002 mid-term races.  Anyone else?

No.  Not at all.  I'm getting an entirely different vibe. More like 2004, when I was worried, but generally optimistic.

72 Doubt exit polls. Fox has this scrolling the bottom of the screen. 61% think Michelle Obama would be a good First lady vs only 54% for Cindy McCain.

73 I'm drinking Killian's Irish Red, Big House Red, and I have a bottle of Champagne in the fridge, just chillin'.

Go vote , bitches!

74 Drudge:

EXIT POLLS CLAIM 'OBAMA +15' IN PA... DEVELOPING...
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH...
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ... DEVELOPING...

Not all of Drudges claims can be true. Either line 1 or line 2 is complete crap. PA is not 15 points to the left of those others.

75

Guess what?

Even if the Drudge numbers are right, that's 5% worse for Obama than President John Fuckin' Kerry. (Who was +20, from what I've read).

What did F'in win by? 2.5%

So, if we assume (dangerous) that the exit polls are as bad this year as they were 4 years ago...

76 I'm calling into NV right now.  Man the phones, people.  It's tough catching people live -- but it's worth it when you do. 

77 We won;t know for weeks who the Prez elect is. Calm down

78 Meep,

NY could be closer than most people think (although guaranteed O-win).  Upstate (my home area) is pretty red/Reagan democrat.  My mom despises Obama, as do many of her friends, for what its worth.  Lotta PUMAs.

79 Is Drudge setting up the MSM/pollsters for EPIC FAIL again?

80 I'm bitterly clinging to my eeyoredom!

81

Hubby and I are doing shots of Jager and drinking whiskey sours.

82 Lots of people lie to pollsters.  I bet even Hillary lied to the exit pollsters...upon exiting the voting site, she said she voted for Obama.  Please...Hillary wants a 2012 run badly, lies with great comfort, and in the privacy of that booth, you betcha' she pulled the lever for anybody but Obama.   

83 It's POSSIBLE (yeah right!) that pollsters have worked the 2004 diferences in actual vs. predicted results into these numbers.

But pollsters are lying bags of shit, and stupid as a bag of hair to boot.

So I doubt it.

84 Scared to death.  Really scared.

85 let's see, if I were desperate what would I do?

"Release a poll showing the messiah up +15"

PA will be close, I'd say McCain by 2

86 As a Concerned Christian Conservative I would recommend you all stop looking at these phony polls.

87

Me and the ball and chain added two votes in the commonwealth of VA.

 

This cocksucker can't win damnit.

88 Wyatt, There is no way that Obama wins PA by 15... they haven't corrected their polling.

89 No way Obama wins by 15 in PA.  No fucking way.

Goes to show just how useless these exit polls are.

90 you guys are gonna jinx this shit.

pixie dust, fellas... pixie dust.

91 71 - My viewpoint might be skewed, though.  In 2002, I was cooped up in grad school with a bunch of flaming moonbats, so when the Senate switched back and the Republicans gained seats in the house (IIRC), I felt like going all Nelson Muntz on them.

92

Dang. Waaaaay too scary to watch this crap. Need a diversion? Go VOTE at the AOL HOT SEAT POLL. Here's the linky http://tinyurl.com/5vqlc4. Want more fun? Clear the cookies and cache in your 'puter and go Vote A Second Time! Then go refill your beverage. Both seem to be good solutions for for me for the moment.

93 DaveS - I sure to hell hope so.  I live in Philly, so I am a pessimist by nature.

94 I don't understand why these polls don't tell us the number of "fuck-offs"?!! Is it because then they have to show the weakness of the interviewer? I really think it would help also, if they would describe the interviewer's looks/age/party. This type of info would allow us AND them to identify weaknesses in exit polls.

One more question: What do us being down in bad exit polls tell us except these two things, we are losing and exit polls suck?

Also, anyone know of a good iphone site to follow REAL RESULTS?

95 Markets are up 3+ percent. I doubt the stock market is giddy about an Obama win. I think Barry is going down like a cheap hooker at a truckstop.

96

Kentucky's Eastern Time Zone polls are closed, as are Indiana's, at 6:00pm. The Central Time Zones areas close at 7:00pm. Watch Indiana's presidential numbers, and watch McConnell's senate numbers.

97

Just heard on WLS- Chicago radio. The woman has exit polling on Ohio. She said it was bad news for Republicans, because it was 3-1 for Obama in a Republican county (I think she said Franklin Co.). She said McCain people only had 9 phones manned there for only the last 2 weeks for GOTV.

I don't know Ohio, just wanted to get this out there. Please give feedback from that area if youl live there. 

98 They're completely hoping to dissuade the PA after-work McCain voters from bothering to wait in the long lines (in the rain, in the dark) with that ridiculous exit number.

99 Scared to death. Really scared.

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at November 04, 2008 07:20 PM (CrDcy)

Dude, you may want to rethik that moniker.

100 What's going on!!!

101

Im drinikin busch cheap but satisfying beer. Got a good buzz goin. Voted McCain-Palin after work today. I'm off tommorrow so I'm ready for anything. I think McCain is goin to pull this off!!!

102 Fox's exit poll numbers show 23% scared if Obama wins but 30% scared if McCain wins.  Do we really think those numbers represent an even assessment of the electorate, or do we think maybe there were more democrats than republicans in that sample?

103 Meaning that the western parts of the state in Central time will close in about 30 minutes.

104 C'mon and vote cracka'!!!

105 Harold Ford Jr is pinning his hopes on "new voters in red states" on MSNBC ... just a wee bit nervous there Harold ... better have another drink ...

106 Hongqi - Sorry.  I'm your huckleberry.  And  posted a "Don't Believe The Exit Polls" pic on my blog.  Just can't imagine how screwed we'd be with that nitwit in office.

107 The woman has exit polling on Ohio. She said it was bad news for Republicans, because it was 3-1 for Obama in a Republican county (I think she said Franklin Co.). She said McCain people only had 9 phones manned there for only the last 2 weeks for GOTV. -- lori

Hah... that's absolutely ridiculous.  That just shows that these exit polls really ARE shit.

108

I'm seeing completely different numbers, here in Florida.  And we don't waste money, counting votes up in the middle of the night, for reporters on a deadline.  Our polls won't even close for another hour and a half, so JUST DON"T LISTEN.  You think FL has counted Mail-Ins yet?  You think we have counted Absentees yet (significant military votes, people with jobs votes)?  No.

FL, down by 1 in Exit Polls?  That's looking good, to me.

109 Polls open until 7pm here in Az. Only just now 4:26pm. Very.Long.Night.

110 That revised Drudge headline is good news, whenever he said it was too close to call in the primaries, Hillary won, FWIW I have a crazy theory that too close to call means McCain won.

111 Okay, folks, let's all settle down here. I know it's like when your team has first-and-goal with under a minute to play, but we've just got to be cool.

If you're not working right now, please head over to the McCain website and do GOTV calling. Polls don't close in the east for another half-hour, and we can still make an impact.

In the meantime- just sit tight, guys. I know it's easy to get stampede mentalities going when it's this tight, but hang in there. Have a drink, everyone chill. We're doing better than anyone expected, but we've got to keep it in perspective.

It goes without saying that if you haven't voted, GET YOUR ASS OUT THERE AND VOTE.

And again- to our PUMA friends- never a prouder moment can be had when we all stand together to defeat socialism like we have here.

And if we do our thing, perhaps tomorrow we're all wearing red to celebrate. Not getting my hopes up, but you just never know.

tmi3rd

112 Drudge:
EXIT POLLS CLAIM ‘OBAMA +15′ IN PA… DEVELOPING…
TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH…
MCCAIN KEEPING AZ… DEVELOPING…

In the epic battle between Mace Windu and Palpatine, it looks like "swing state" Anakin is about to walk into the room.  This could prove good for all of us on the dark side (of socialism).

113 Sorry. I'm your huckleberry.

Just messing with you, we are all nervous.

114 Fox's exit poll numbers show 23% scared if Obama wins but 30% scared if McCain wins. Do we really think those numbers represent an even assessment of the electorate, or do we think maybe there were more democrats than republicans in that sample?That means 53% of the people are worried about riots no matter who wins....

115 79 Is Drudge setting up the MSM/pollsters for EPIC FAIL again?

And that would please Drudge more than any other outcome. 

Drudge knows how to jack up his page views, and he loves to stick it to the legacy media, and a McCain win would do that better than anything yet invented.

116

someone said earlier that a close loss would be harder to take.

i know what they're saying, but really, we shouldn't ever have had a chance in this thing.

a close mccain loss probably means retaining more congressional and senate seats than we thought we might, and it denies Obama a huge mandate to some degree.

 

117 Had 20+ family members down for the Redskins thrashing :-) from Pittsburgh.  Over 80 percent DESPISED the Messiah.

118 I have resigned myself to the fact I may not be one the winning team, but to console myself, after the two middle-age bitches wearing O'Bambi tee's knocked on my door with a litany of liberal lies and bullshit, I thanked them and as they turned to walk towards the street, my sprinkler system went to full spray in the afternoon.  Absolutely amazing concidence. 

119 Olberman just said Obama didn't change his mind on taking public financing. He was emphatic about it - arguing with Mathews about it. Talk about a reality distortion field.

120 I knew we should have served warrants in Philly today.  Would have cut down on some of the Obama vote.  Heh.

121

I'm a refresh monkey! I'm a refresh monkey! I'm a refresh monkey!

122

NH and Kentukey results are coming in

 

 

123 I'll be so fucking mad if mccain loses arizona...that'll be so embaressing for him and he's already been mistreated by the MSM. Also, barr better not tip georgia to obama. I don't want to see mccain go down without a fight in this race. I want this race to be close so the pundits squirm. If he even comes close it'll say volumes. After a financial meltdown, MSM bias, an unpopular president, his age, and being outspend like 20-1, it he comes close in this race to me thats a win for mccain even if he doesn't win.

124 Hillbuzz has some very good advice. Drudge's goal is to CREATE TRAFFIC to his site. Stay strong or at least stay drinking.

125 Indiana returns coming in, I'll post as soon as counties have enough data to make a fair comparison to 2004 data.

126 Absolutely amazing concidence.

Funny how that happens...

127

The woman has exit polling on Ohio. She said it was bad news for Republicans, because it was 3-1 for Obama in a Republican county (I think she said Franklin Co.). She said McCain people only had 9 phones manned there for only the last 2 weeks for GOTV. -- lori

Hah... that's absolutely ridiculous.  That just shows that these exit polls really ARE shit.
------------------------

Are you sure? I hope so. She's a pretty reliable democratic insider. They often have her on Fox because she is pretty normal (not hugely partisan). She also is on CBS-news sometimes. The hosts of this show are NOT political, they don't have shills of either side on at all. She had gotten her info. right from the Obama campaign. Again, I hope you're right, but this scares me. Is the county right, Franklin? Is anyone from Ohio here?

128 Hongqi,

Did you end up voting for McCain?

129 Click on my SN to get to CNN's live election results. Obama up early in Indianna

130

#97 from campaign spot - on ohip

Some Cautiously Optimistic Takes From Sources on the Ground in Ohio

I continue to hear relentlessly positive takes from folks on the ground in Ohio.

George Bush carried Darke County, Ohio, 18,306 to 7,486 with 70% turnout and I am hearing some predictions that turnout there could reach 80 percent this year.

Bush carried Warren County 68,037 votes to 26,044 with 76 percent turnout. I'm hearing that turnout is expected to be higher there, too.

The sense among some GOP folks on the ground is that the turnout in heavily African-American precincts in some of Ohio's cities has been light today, as of midafternoon, because of so many partaking of early voting. They see that as a reasonably good sign, that the Obama get-out-the-vote operation has hit its limit. These sources have been telling me for a few weeks now that they think McCain will overperform Bush's 2004 performance and that the Republican candidate's margin of victory will be greater than the two percent four years ago.

131 Everyone calm down; these are exit polls. They were off by around 5pts in 2004 and again in 2006 by just as much and always with a left skew. It's not like the pollsters can compensate perfectly for the use of POS college kids as interviewers; the variable is unknowable.

Yeah, something is up with the Drudge numbers. No way that Penn is over 10pts to the left of FL and OH.

I'm sure someone would have talked to an internal source to correct them if the gawker ones were wrong. Or it could be another round of polling, but a 11pt shift is unlikely.

132 It should be easy to get reliable data back out of New Hampshire, which would give a good measure of how "off" the phone polls were.  In other words, if Obama gets and actual vote victory of under 4% in New Hampshire, McCain has a chance of pulling the election out of his ass.  But without Pennsylvania, I still don't see the math (I think O wins the southwestern tossups due to depressed Rep turnout after the networks call it for O around 9pm eastern)

133

38 Fox exit polls are so slanted that they have only 12% of people saying they will be excited if McCain wins. Only 8% of people interviewed say that McCain can bring change. The polls are way way heavy on Dems, and we're this close?

Jim I thought the same thing, It sounds like they are only polling Dems! OMG it's gonna be a long night.

134

I'm a refresh monkey! I'm a refresh monkey! I'm a refresh monkey!

Heh.

And this blog is sooooo slowwww tonight. 

135 Campaign Spot:

I find myself in a similar role to 2004. Folks, if you have not voted, go out and vote. The McCain camp and state GOP sources that I talk to are far from "stoic" as a CNN report just claimed. They think they have astonishing, record turnout in red parts of all of the important swing states - you name it - Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, even New Hampshire. I cannot tell you that what they say they see is enough to give McCain a win. But it should be enough to refute the Obama's set-to-win-huge argument.

136 Is there anything hotter than watching Megan Kelly read exit polls?

137 If you get a call from an Obama GOTV person, keep them talking.  Ask lots of questions.  Take up a lot of their time which will keep them from making other calls.  If you get a call from a McCain GOTV...tell them quickly you already voted for McCain so they can move on.

138 Did you end up voting for McCain?

Yes, I did runnin...

However, I still prefer to think of it as voting for Palin.

Go ahead, give me shit.

139 Had 20+ family members down for the Redskins thrashing :-) from Pittsburgh. Over 80 percent DESPISED the Messiah.

Did they vote or we're they beaten by the New Black Panthers?

140 Thanks you guys for keeping me calm. I'm committed to a web only vehicle. No need to feed the trolls re: enemedia.

I need some exercise and will take a chill out period soon. But for now I'm with you guys looking for the upside and praying and hoping enough of the American people are fed up with the propaganda.

Like many, I have respect for Johnny Mac but know he isn't like us he is however our guy against the Obamatron and his pack of Manchurian Candidate ways.

141

Olberman just said Obama didn't change his mind on taking public financing. He was emphatic about it - arguing with Mathews about it. Talk about a reality distortion field.

I really don't like Matthews. Really don't. That said, I honestly think that if things actually came down to it, unlike Matthews, Olbermann would gladly put the jackboot to the face.

142

from campaign spot on wild differences in exit polls ....

Hold Fast. We May Have Either 2004 or 2006 On Our Hands.

We have typically wildly contradictory data. We have Gawker's numbers that would make McCain fans think they have a real shot, and Drudge, which has Obama ahead in Pennsylvania by 15. Drudge also has Ohio, Indiana, and Florida too close to call, which is... strange. It's not easy to imagine a scenario in which Pennsylvania is a blowout, but demographically-similar Ohio is too close to call.

I find myself in a similar role to 2004. Folks, if you have not voted, go out and vote. The McCain camp and state GOP sources that I talk to are far from "stoic" as a CNN report just claimed. They think they have astonishing, record turnout in red parts of all of the important swing states - you name it - Nevada, Colorado, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Virginia, even New Hampshire. I cannot tell you that what they say they see is enough to give McCain a win. But it should be enough to refute the Obama's set-to-win-huge argument.

Should.

Also - if Drudge is right on the "Democrats see 58 seats", that was a bit early in the night, isn't it? Wouldn't you figure the double-digit Obama win would bring them within striking distance of 60?

143

From Gateway Pundit:

 

More... McCain is winning 16% of Hillary supporters in Ohio. (FOX News)
Hillary won Ohio (before the Wright scandal) 53-49%
18% of Hillary voters would be 226,000 voters!

144 Lori: "Are you sure? I hope so. She's a pretty reliable democratic insider."

Lori, Obama carrying 75% of the electorate is the sort of crap I expect here in Seattle, WA (well, 85+% here probably).  If someone is telling you Obama is carrying 75% of a "republican district" they are blowing smoke.

145 Lori, who is the woman? You know her reputation, but what's her name?

146 "She's a pretty reliable democratic insider. They often have her on Fox because she is pretty normal (not hugely partisan)."

If you think that the mere fact that a Dem is on fox means they're not hugely partisan, you must not watch Fox News much.  Believe me, Fox has no problem with bringing on people so far left that would make regular posters at Democratic Underground say, "Um... dude."

Qwinn

147 On Exit Polls: Fox News Survey, Oct 30, 2008.


40. Every election, the television networks conduct exit polls of people as they leave their polling places on Election Day. If you were asked to participate, how likely is it you would be willing to spend 10 minutes filling out a questionnaire?

Obama voters who responded very likely/somewhat likely: 77 percent.

McCain voters who responded very likely/somewhat likely: 64 percent.

Obama voters who responded not very likely/not at all likely: 20 percent.

McCain voters who responded not very likely/not at all likely: 32 percent.

http://tinyurl.com/6hpnk2

148 Go ahead, give me shit.

No, no, Hongqi. You're evolution is enough...

149

BTW - Marstonchronicles calculated that Mac needs 62,000 Pumas to take Ohio. 

Glimmers of hope.  Sooo want to open my 2003 bottle of Remy-Martin XO tonight or tomorrow.

150 Also - if Drudge is right on the "Democrats see 58 seats", that was a bit early in the night, isn't it? Wouldn't you figure the double-digit Obama win would bring them within striking distance of 60?

that is an excellent point.

151 ...for me to poop on.

152

One exit poll set, i think CNN:

National 54-44
 
GA 47-51
FL 52-49
IA 58-42
IN 52-48
MI 60-39
MN 56-39
MO52-48
NC 52-48
NH 57-43
NM 56-43
NV 55-45
OH 54-45
PA 57-42
VA 55-45
WV 45-55
WI 58-42
Senate numbers:
Sununu down 18
Coleman down 12
McConnell up 2
Chambliss up 3
Dole down 52-43

153 Am I missing something or is CNN actually reporting votes in KY and IN before their polls are closed?

154 Indiana results coming in.

155 Out of 100% sample

(+13%) more Obama supporters say they are -likely- to talk to an exit pollster.

(+12%) more McCain supporter say they are -unlikely- or -not at all likely- to talk to exit pollsters.

156 No, no, Hongqi. You're evolution is enough...

You are a gentleman, sir. I might not have been so gracious.

157 just absorb the exit polls as crazy.  not reality.  Don't react.  If you get nervous GOTV to western states using the phone call thingy.

158 I swear to God if Christoph comes in here tonight and tells us that we need to fix our system so it better resembles Canada or some shit I will reach right through this screen and rip his heart out of his chest.

159
I just voted, McCain of course, the polling place was relatively empty except for an unusual amt of african americans hanging around.

160 139 Had 20+ family members down for the Redskins thrashing :-) from Pittsburgh. Over 80 percent DESPISED the Messiah.

Did they vote or we're they beaten by the New Black Panthers?

Posted by: Kolchak at November 04, 2008 07:35 PM (//Qr5)

 

Kolchak,

Yeah, they voted.  They're from Western Penn.  Those uppities ain't coming to the racist side of the state :-P

 

161 Goddamnit, Mom just called...she went McCain, Dad went Obama (but both in Michigan). Goddamn ex-hippies, never trust anyone over 40. That leaves one sister diehard for the Retarded Messiah (Chicago, so that's a wash), and one sister not saying (22 yrs old, dental school, in Minnesota, so I'm calling that Uhbama, maybe). So my immediate family is a net loss. But grandma and grandpa, come on, hook it up!

On the other hand, I've been overhearing split ballots for alot of kids here and there in this trendy, hipster coffee house in Denver.

I'm one of those that just wants this never-ending election to finally fucking END. I say we summarily execute the first candidate campaigning for election next time, so we can have the shortest election in history.

162

97:  Franklin County is not Republican.  Kerry won by 10% in 2004.

163

DaveS- Logially I agree. She just seemed to be very tuned in to this area of Ohio. Ohio is one of the states I've been most worried about for voter fraud, as well. 

BTW - Ann Compton (ABC news reporter) is no on WLS giving her thoughts. She said she just interviewed Obama today and he was very confident and  relaxed. She said he even talked about how he thought his girls will do growing up in the white-house. Oh, how I hope they grouw-up in Hyde Park, not DC.

164

pfth, @#76: I'm calling into NV right now.  Man the phones, people.  It's tough catching people live -- but it's worth it when you do. 

Damn, that's a good idea.  I signed up for 50 calls to Pennsylvania, but on call #8 they shipped me to Florida.

I guess we've called every single person in Pennsylvania already.

165

Here is the latest from inside Team McCain: Florida looks good. Ohio, Penn., Virginia and NC are too close to call.

Me: As superguru Mike Barone puts it, wait for real votes to be counted. But at the very least, this hardly looks like an Obama blowout. Still maybe a McCain win. TCTC.

166 Anyone smell axelturfing?

167 Drudge's numbers can't be right in comparison to each other. There's no way that OH is a tossup, but PA is 15 points to her left. Sorry sir, but that kind of swing is ludicrous.

168

On Geoff's CNN exit polls:

McConnell up 2

No fucking way. If McConnell is that close to Lunsford here, then that means we're fucked nationally. But no way do I think it's that close.

But if McConnell performs like he should in the high single digits, like say 7-9 points, then we've got a gauge to show how we're really doing tonight compared to the exits.

Cautious optimism is called for.

 

 

169 Geoff-AHFF

You say you "think CNN," but where'd you get them from?

170 Just poured my first vodka and 7. Can't drink it straight or I won't make it till McCain wins.

171 An update from Captain Ed:

Mid-day exit polling will skew heavily to the Democrats. We saw that in 2004, when everyone panicked after they showed Kerry winning by wide margins. ABC reports that the black vote only slightly increased from 2004 and will only be 13% of the total vote — lower than most people predicted. Most of the predictions hit around 16%. That may be a huge problem for Obama, if the final numbers bear that out. In 2004, it was 11% of the vote, and went 88% to Kerry.


hmmm.

172 Oh, I see them at MyDD....

Highly skeptical. Highly.

173 169 Exactly, where are those numbers from, they are depressing.

174 get a grip! the exit polls are skewed and notoriously wrong.

175

2004 Kerry exit polls = 20 points, wins by 1.5%

2008 Obama exit polls - 15 points ... extrapolates to an Obama loss of ~3.5 % - and, of course, the exit polls are even more skewed this year for the "huge" DNC turnout.  This is still longshot but good bet IMO - GOTV!

176 Breaking according to Gateway:

A federal judge has ordered election officials in Virginia to preserve late-arriving absentee ballots that Republican John McCain's campaign claims should be counted.

The McCain campaign says in a lawsuit that absentee ballots weren't mailed on time to many military members serving overseas. The complaint asks the court to order the state to count absentee ballots from overseas troops postmarked by Tuesday and received by Nov. 14.

The deadline for ballots to be received is 7 p.m. on Election Day.

---

Watch the Democrats appeal that or something

177 Anyone know of a live fox news feed I can tap into on the inet tubes?
THX

K

178 Id start drinking but its 9am here..... ugh lol

179 I picked the wrong week to stop intravenously injecting Jager and Drano.

180 WTF is going on in kentucky? If kentucky is this close its over.

181 Pixy's poor gerbils are working overtime tonight.  I hope he gives them a peanut.

Or hits them with a stick.  Whichever works.

182 "Id start drinking but its 9am here..... ugh lol"

Hey,.........  it's 9p.m. somewhere.

183

I live in PA and have received at least FOUR phone calls from the McCain campaign in the past two hours reminding us to vote.

And we've gotten so many today my 7 year old, when one message came up on the answering maching said, "Oh that's my favorite!".

I never remember getting any the past two elections.

It must be close here.

184 172 Oh, I see them at MyDD....

And we're supposed to believe them, because?

Just a quick reminder.....

EXIT POLLS ARE CRAP!!!

Especially exit polls "leaked" by a site like MyDD

185 There were two other voters at the polling place when I was there.  They both voted for McCain. 

186 Uh oh. I smell concern trolls.

187 Vigo County in Indiana is a strange one.  However that looks to be in Obama's camp after being Bush in the last election by a close margin

20,988 votes for Bush
18,426 votes for Kerry
307 votes for others

Now at 80% in
18,728 votes for Obama
13,799 votes for McCain

That's pretty damn fucked up and a big turn around from the last election.  However Indiana State University is in Terre Haute.

188 I swear to God if Christoph comes in here tonight and tells us that we need to fix our system so it better resembles Canada or some shit I will reach right through this screen and rip his heart out of his chest.

Posted by: JackStraw at November 04, 2008 07:44 PM (VW9/y)

Heheh.

189 WTF is going on in kentucky? If kentucky is this close its over.

Posted by: michelle at November 04, 2008 07:56 PM (BXzBD)

Here they come!

190 How long after the polls close at 7:00 will they give us results? If McCain wins Virginia, I will do the happy dance.

191 bong rip every time a poll closes?

192 I see Drudge added this to his red links in the upper lefthand corner:

2004 FLASHBACK: Egg On Face of Exit Pollsters...

193

Holy Shit! Obama took Vermont!

We're doomed.

194

Kentucky's fine. We've only got like 1% reporting right now according to my local news site, and it's McCain up like 9 points already.

Lunsford is ahead of McConnell by less than three thousand votes, but only 9% of precincts are reporting, and the western part of the state is just now closing their polls. I went to school out there (Murray State, go Racers!) and trust me, you can't get much redder than western Ky.

Everything is going decently well so far.

195 Here they come????

196

I just took a look at official results from Indiana:

O! by 50-48 with 3% in. This is bad, right? Somebody talk me down from my ledge.

197

Kestrel: try TVPC, http://tinyurl.com/6ldekp. I had to change the channel to Fox, but checked against tv in the office and it's a lock.

198 Megyn Kelly is looking FIIIIIIIIIIIIIINE!

199

I got them from Gawker -

http://gawker.com/5076419/exit-polls-exit-polls-exit-polls

200 I have an idea for the next Congress.

I think we need a law that prohibits exit polling and prohibits the press from reporting the results of an election until all the results are in.

Does anyone else see anything wrong with a law like that? Seriously.

Everyone knows that the release of exit polling numbers and calling States and such is not done in order to reports news, but to influence behavior.

I say there should be a law that says that the election results will not begin to be reported until all polling stations across the country have closed.

201

Ace-

I sent a post several weeks back that pissed you off regarding supporting McCain consistently.  It was my absolute joy to see that the tone of the comments went from a trot to a gallup to a frick'n stampede for McCain during the past three weeks.  This weekend when the coal industry bankruptcy tape broke it was on fire on this site.   Country First!!

202

Jameson shot every time a poll closes.

Quit that hippie shit, icemike.

Quit it.

203 These crappy exit polls are causing me to emit copious amounts of gas!

204 FWIW, calling Indiana's goobernatorial race for Mitch Daniels is meaningless.  He was up by 12, and that was the low end.

205

Kentucky has been called for McCain by CNN.

calm down, it's gonna be a long night

206 Michael in MI

Exactly right. I was having a conversation with a fella in line to vote about this very thing. It's a horrible practice and it should be outlawed. I also think no votes should be reported period until the very last poll closes.

207 Can someone please post a link to a good foxnews stream. I have no cable here only the laptop...
I'm watching (grudgingly) msnbc
FNC's video link just seems to have clips.

208 jdub-

be mellow brah.

209 Went to the store because I needed a drink before I go to Biltmore ... talk radio talking about dozens (probably more) FUCKING ILLEGALS voting in AZ. I'm pissed off!!!!

210 195:

Axelturfers...

211 I just dont believe the exit polls. There is no way that Americans are goingto have a fraudulent socialist like Obama such a strong mandate.  The actual numbers will be close...we're still in this thing.

212 "How long after the polls close at 7:00 will they give us results? If McCain wins Virginia, I will do the happy dance."


If McCain wins Virginia I'm gonna start dipping my balls in whipped cream and chocolate.

213 Exit polling data is crap especially if it is RAW exit polling date. I seem to remember in 2004 that the exit polling organizations know that they poll more heavily in Urban areas and they then manipulate/extrapolate the date to account for that. So isn't the raw number often very different from the extrapolated number?

214 CInAz

Thanks!

K

215 Jackstraw - get in line!  I've been waiting with a ball bat for a long time.  frikkin' cliffclavin-canadians, eh?

216 I also think no votes should be reported period until the very last poll closes.

Posted by: Topsecretk9 at November 04, 2008 08:05 PM

Completely agree.

217 WTF ACE ????I need a cheerleader not a school marm!!!!!

218 we are doing GREAT! We start the night with the MSM unable to call VA for Obummer as they intended, this is WONDERFUL, even if MAC was sweeping they wont call it for him as we know..

We begin with MAC 8 EVs Obummer dopey VT 3 EV
so we are up 5 at the first at bat

also Lindsey Graham kept his seat, as a DEM never thought Id be so psyched but I am, he is great and Im glad MAC showed me that

dopey Frank Luntz just said on FXBiz that DEMS have such aprty id advantage that MAC must win Indys to win-there they go ignoring the PUMA factor, tsk tsk

we will do this

WE WILL DO THIS

W00T
BOOYAH!

219 Hmmm, Christoph is laying low, isn't he?

Anyway, on our second bottle of wine here. After the kids go to bed, it's Dr. Horrible and gin slings. Wooooo!

220

Pixy's poor gerbils are working overtime tonight.  I hope he gives them a peanut.

What are you, some kind of disgusting communist troll?

Of course the stick!

Jaysus wept, no wonder we're losing.

221 Crap Warner won VA, that's not a good sign.

222 I would have felt better if these exits had The One's lead at 7-10 points rather than 1-4 points. The former are safely disregarded. The latter make me think that the exit pollsters have made adjustments (i.e. in the way they weight their raw data).

I spent today hoping for one of the most unexpected landslides in American history. But these numbers indicate this is anyone's election. Of course, if those exit pollsters haven't learned anything--oh, it's too fun to contemplate at this early hour.

223 Indiana definitely going to be tighter. Obama running well on the Illinois border. If McCain performs close to Bush in the Republican counties that just closed the polls, he will win Indiana by 5-7.

224

If McCain wins Virginia I'm gonna start dipping my balls in whipped cream and chocolate.

If McCain wins Virginia I will lick them.

225 The voting numbers in Indiana thus far are terrible. McCain is running 10-15% behind Bush in the SAME Republican counties. Unless there is something going on here -- like these are early voting numbers -- it's over.

226 also on Indiana, we have Mitch Daniels holding GOV, and question here
are Indiana paper ballots? if they are saying exit polls usually favoring Obummer may be under reporting his support due to Obummer voters voting early, what are chances the early votes are being counted first

in our primaries our rural Hillary votes always came in last becuase our DEM base is at work.....

227 Gawker is owned by the same people who own the dealbreaker site.  On the dealbreaker site the financial professionals wouldn't let them get away with their garbage so they haD to put it on Gawker.   The owners have been big contributors to BO.  SO TOTALLY IGNORE GAWKER.  THEY ARE TOTALLY NOT TELLLING THE TRUTH.

If you are on the west coast and you haven't voted MCCAIN?PALIN...get out there and vote.   Every vote counts...we need you....GO OUT NOW WEST COAST AND VOTE MCCAIN PALIN!!!!!

228

I don't know how all this will shake out.

I'm at work tonight, and Skynet has unlocked the satellite receiver so we can watch the returns. I have a BigAss™ wall-mounted hi def TV in front of me.

Megyn Kelly is life-size.

229 Juan Williams is a douche.

Just wanted that on record.

K

230

Here's some fuckin' encouragement morons!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

"Late internal poll shows McCain +12 in PA. I’m off to McCain HQ and offline for the rest of the day.

IGNORE THE F’ING MEDIA TODAY!

O is for over!"

http://patriotroom.com/?p=3852

Sorry, Ace, too fuckin' drunk to do that tiny url shit, at least give us a break today.

231

Gilmore never had a shot in VA.  Fear not--we'll get Bob McDonnell in the governor's office in 09. 

232

If McCain wins Virginia I'm gonna start dipping my balls in whipped cream and chocolate.

If McCain wins Virginia I will lick them.

I am saving this for the next flame thread.

233 Of course he's running well on the illinois border. All those votes are fraudulent chicago votes...

234 Much Closer Than Expected in New Hampshire?

235

Crap Warner won VA, that's not a good sign.

Not necessarily true. As someone pointed out (cant remember who) Warner voters may well be McCain voters further up the ticket. Not saying I wouldnt prefer the R to have won, but there may be a definite silver liing there.

236 off to buy booze and my kid burger king.

237 Anyone hear anything on that Senator "Fatass" Murtha? Its all speculation right now. I know. Just get yerself a drink and hold on. Mock Election went to McCain 54% -46%  in Middle School Social Studies Class here in SoCal. So says my son Nat in PB

238 219 - Anyway, on our second bottle of wine here. After the kids go to bed, it's Dr. Horrible and gin slings. Wooooo!

What is this Dr. Horrible of which you speak?  You don't mean Neil Patrick Harris, do you?

239 Crap Warner won VA, that's not a good sign.

No. That has nothing to do with the pres election. Virginians are ga-ga for Warner, that's all.

240 I went to the polls in Arizona today, actually hrere was only three other voters in the polling office.  I opted for the table vs booth because I had to get out my proposition cheat sheet.  On exiting I noticed a rather obvious exit poll type person,   You know clipboard and all.  As I exited bymyself she ignored me.  Then I realized I forgot my cheat sheet that my wife wanted.  Again I went in and out alone and was ignored.  I even had my white I VOTED TODAY sticker on my Blue shirt.  I got in the car and made a cell call  to my wife that the polls were not packed like reported on the news and I watched the exit poll lady stop the next three people coming out and even asked one to wait while she wrapped up the person in front.  I'm a white person and the three she stopped were of color (Two African Americans and a Hispanic.)  I thought to myself that was weird. Then I realized I was wearing both a veteran hat and shirt. Hat was blue and yellow about my Naval Submarine squadron and shirt had Naval Force Pacific and a squadron logo.  On my way out in my car I stopped and asked her about the turnout today with my I VOTED TODAY  sticker in plain view.  Nothing NADA, zip, My  opinion is not necessary because I am part of the military machine?  4 chances to ask me and mailed everyone else after me. Whiskey Tango Foxtrot.

241 I wish Fox News wouldn't punish me by having Bill Kristol on. I have to mute his whiny ass.

242 And if Johnny Mac pulls this off, I'm calling my grandpa tomorrow to laugh at his Eeyorism. Not that my delusions were much better.

"It'll be a rout," he said.

"I agree!" I said.

"Well, the Republicans were never going to win this year," he said, depressingly.

"Huh? I think McCain is going to blow it out of the water," I said.

I could see it in his eyes. He was wondering how many bottles of wine I had gone through at the actuarial conference I had just come from.

Anyway, he's the only one in the family (excepting my husband) I can share any gloating with. 

243 fox has mac out in front in FL

244 BO campaign has sent out four emails today begging people to make phone calls to get the vote out.  Mostly sent to students.  They keep sending them saying it is vitally important.  Wonder what that says they are thinking?

245

frikkin' cliffclavin-canadians, eh?

Cliff Clavinadians?

 

 

 

Refresh! Refresh! Refresh!

246

Exit polls...you think they learned their lesson in 2004? 

Fuck 'em anyway, I'll await the finals.

I did my part, and got my 'I Voted' sticker.

247 Too early for anything but I know one thing-
We have to do better than Jim Gilmore as a senate candidate in VA- aarrgg!
Also NC will be close cause Liddy Dole's in serious trouble- sigh!

248 #233 just reporting the news.  Not an Eeyore or troll as long timers will profess.  Prepare for a long night, this is going to be very close.

249 well we got one state!

250 Re: 221

Warner was always going to win Va.  Gilmore had no shot.  It means nothing.

251 Are these exit polls or actual votes being counted in the east coast states?

252 According to the news McCain is leading in the POP VOTE, this could be an indicator or like 2000 not.

253 Listen PA beats Indiana, and PA is ours baby

nothing is over

come on GOP show us the fire you felt against my beloved Clintons :0)
PUMAS have been getting beaten down by our own party for a year and we are standing tall, stand up

stand up
nothing is inevitable
Fight
America is worth fighting for
we make History!

stand up

I know that by heart MAC got his message across very well, it is the message that carried Hillary to victory in the end of our primaries

we will do this
ps listen these OBOTS read The Secret, in Oprah book club and chant in basements envisioning the crowning m dont help them

like in Poltergeist, dont think fo what you fear, he knows too much already

WE ARE GONNA DO THIS

WE MUST
SO WE WILL

Did the greatest generation and all those before fight so we could lay down and cry when the battle is just beginning in the Western Front

PUSH THE LINE FORWARD

254

McConnell is too close to call...50-50

any surprise? this is what happens when "leaders" don't lead.

255 ok mac is winning Fl and VA with 1% reporting, lets just call it now

256 WAY effing early, but LOVE the VA and FL!

257 Ace can we get a new thread, this one's huge

258 Actual votes, lots of east coast states close at different times.  They wont call states, but they start reporting numbers when they have them.

259 Indiana still coming in but they are skidding around on all the MSM channels and local radio as to what is happening (huh, uh,uh, err) which tells me McCain will pull it off.    It just steams me that our supposedly "conservative" talk radio host in the morning in Indianapolis is in the Obi camp and really obnoxiously so-come to think of it--he's black...would that have anything to do with it??   This does not have anything to do with race this year-right?  Do I have that right??

260

I seem to remember hearing that Exit Polling is often ususally done in Democrat-rich districts in urban areas.  So no wonder it is skewed to Dems.

So don't get too worried.  It is the actual votes that count.  And I am praying for the Bradley effect to kick in, too.  Ordinarily I wouldn't say that, but with this particular character, we can use all the help we can get.

 

 

261 Warner is the next vanilla new JFK model our cabal of morons in our DEM leadership plan to run to block Hills run in 12

I thought his convention speech sucked and no one paid any attention

boo boo Warner
we PUMAS will be paying close attention in 2010 to make sure we dont get idiots blocking Hillary again

in fact, ironically having more GOP in 2010 might help us get Hill the nomination, hmm

gotta think about that

see what thou hast wrought moronic DNC!

we can work together in the future fellow Americans

methinks I see the path.....

262 Fox's interactive electoral map just called WVa for McCain.

I know, no surprise. Just keeping things updated.

263 David -- how can McCain lose Indiana??? This is so not good if Indiana is tight. Do you have any good news?

264 FOX says Mac was West Va, Coal vote perhaps.

265

I could see it in his eyes. He was wondering how many bottles of wine I had gone through at the actuarial conference I had just come from.

Now that must be a wild time.  Actuaries gone wild!

Bow chicka wow wow

266 Remember the McCain memo about exit polls:

"We would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state. "

HillBuzz says Drudge and the entire MSM did the same thing in the primaries and Hillary won ALL those states by DOUBLE DIGITS.

Don't freak out! Turn off the news. It'll just make your blood pressure go up. It's gonna take a while to get the real results.

267 Look at the size of this thread!
It's HUGE!

268 LiveBLOG! Things are moving too fast.

269

As a better man once said:

I have myself, full confidence that if we all do our duty, if nothing is neglected, and is the best arrangements are made, as they are being made, we shall prove ourselves once again able to defend our home island, to ride out the storm or war, and to outlive the menace of tyranny, if necessary for years, if necessary alone. At any rate, we are going to try.

270 Woot, Fox just called W. Virginia. That's two states!

271 It's pooring down rain and sleet in Washinton right now. That will keep the libtards away from the polls.

272 october surprise -

here's a link with different possibilities:
http://news.cnet.com/8301-13578_3-10081981-38.html

i don't see one on fox though. too bad.

273

You guys see the douches running into the OBama koolaid fest?

Scary shit...........

274 Everybody needs to chill on Indiana. It's a neighboring state to Illinois and Obama has been there like 52 times.

275

Exit polls are complete, undeniable, crap.  I just spent 4 hours conducting an exit poll in the Chicago area.  People are extremely reluctant to participate, even in Obama central.  I conducted mine as fairly as possible, but it would be so unbelievably easy to manipulate the results by skewing who you ask to participate. 

Here's a few things I noticed.

1) The very first person I asked to participate was a little old lady who replied "I voted for McCain, so I'm sure no one cares about my opinion around here."  She only agreed to fill out the poll after I assured her that her opinion mattered.

2) There were VERY FEW young voters.  Keep in mind I was at a polling place just a few blocks from a university --- and students are permitted to register and vote locally. 

3) Working 9-5, white-collar type people and people with kids were least likely to participate.  Most of the respondents were elderly voters and people who, for one reason or another, had the day off.  They definitely were not representative of all people who voted.

You can adjust the results based on demographics, but the fact remains that exit polls are tremendously unreliable for predicting the winning candidate.  The ONLY decent use for exit poll data is to understand internals that you can't get from raw voting data alone, such as how different demographic groups voted.

Thats my two-cents

276 I have FNC on...I don't see a WV call--especially since polls are open until 7:30

277
GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!
running    running    running    running    running    running
GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!
running    running    running    running    running    running
GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!
running    running    running    running    running    running
GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!
running    running    running    running    running    running
GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!
running    running    running    running    running    running
GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!GAAAHHH!!!
running    running    running    running    running    running
THUMP

278 Indiana is awfully close to Illinois, and may be much more of a squeaker just based on geography.

279 I am still at work here in So Cal and am absolutely paralyzed, hitting the refresh  - I might get fired but hey, if Barry wins, I get me some welfare then...Please God...let McCain win.

280 Its funny watching Wolf on CNN keep on saying "its early" every time there is a good McCain result...what a bias asshole.

281 why, thank you.

282 "Too early for anything but I know one thing-
We have to do better than Jim Gilmore as a senate candidate in VA- aarrgg!
Also NC will be close cause Liddy Dole's in serious trouble- sigh!"


I know too bad Cantor couldn't take his ass out of The House, and run for The Senate, he would do alot more damage there. Plus his district would go reliably red anyway with a replacement.

283 BEAKING NEWS:

In my magical exit polling i did in my head, Obama is up 30 in Texas!?!?! WTF!?!

284 Wait W Va is off the map, cant FOX get their map to work right.

285 HOLD THE LINE

286 Jay is right- I think that IN in 2004 can't be factored in terms of winning big.
Any victory margin there tonight  may be OK for McCain.
KY is the state where he needs to match Bushs' blowout or else it could be problematic

287 #263, he is not losing Indiana.  Based on the numbers I am seeing, he will win by 5-7 points.  It will be a long night, because that was the range that will make this a tossup race.

288 Jeez, this thread has achieved LGF proportions...

289 two middle-age bitches wearing O'Bambi tee's knocked on my door with a litany of liberal lies and bullshit, I thanked them and as they turned to walk towards the street, my sprinkler system went to full spray in the afternoon.  Absolutely amazing concidence.

God works in mysterious ways.

Polling site report.....

Walked across the street to my local polling site, who's polling area is partly Santa Barbara, partly Montecito (where all the celebrities live, like Oprah's enormous mansion, about 3 miles from my house in the 'hood. makes me wonder how many states she's voted in.). Both are HUGELY lefty. Counted 35 cars in the parking lot, but only TWO OBAMA STICKERS!!! You have to understand, that's fucking unreal in this town.

Even better yet, there were two cars with yellow "support the troops" magnets, one USMC parent magnet and two California veteran's license plates (both Navy). As I was walking back home, another car (Mercedes, very nice) pulled in with no stickers, but he had two Navy ballcaps displayed in the rear window.

I have a goooood feeling about this.

290

Crap Warner won VA, that's not a good sign.

Hey, I've got a conservative friends in VA who admitted that he voted for Warner. Never got the reason why, but the Gilmore was considered such a bad choice that he felt he had to go with Warner.  Don't know why.  But he voted Republican for just about everything else and definitely voted for McCain.

291

Well the exit poller was wearing a rainbow beanie, had unshaved legs and sandals with socks and I was in veteran clothing with a high and tight haircut : ) 

I can understand why she didn't want my opinion.  I'm sure that she thought I would say OBOY Obama in the house?  Now I don't have to pay for gas and rent!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

292 Popping the top on the first beer now.

Pace yourselves, boys and girls. It's gonna be a long night.

293 I hope none of my friends are at the Grant Park thingie. Either way, I don't think it would be safe.

294 I know this is a stupid question, but exit polls aren't actual counted votes, right? They are just exit pollers asking people who they voted for? So basically the exit polls are meaningless, since we know that people are still deliberately lying to pollsters to fuhk with them? I know the PUMAs had some kind of instructions for their groups to lie to pollsters as well as exit pollsters too I think.

So isn't it pointless to talk about exit polling and would be better to wait to post actual counted votes?

295 Those of you who think this is a long thread for AoSHQ have not been around here that long.

296 Yahoo shows McCain up by 9 in early tallies from VA. 55%! Only 1% reporting, but I'm still excited by that.

297

ER Doctor: Ace, calm down. You're gonna stroke out. It's ok, son. Obama winning is not that big a deal....

Ace (through oxygen mask): mmm... hmmm..um.. umm.mmm..

ER Doctor: What? Whadd'a you mean I'll only make half what I'm making now under Obama's national healthcare?!?

Ace (through oxygen mask): mmm... hmmm..um.. umm.mmm.. hmmm.. ummm..MMM!!!!

ER Doctor: Jesus titty fucking...

Nurse!!!

1,000 ccs of McCallan 21...STAT!!!

What? ...No!!... Fuck him! The shot is for me! I'm gonna be broke!!

Ahhhh...

Now...Nurse, if Ace gets all riled up again, give him 8oz oral of Johnny Walker Blue and shove a couple of Valium suppositories up his ass.

Then tickle his balls for a bit.

I'll be back later.

I gotta go vote.

 

[and...scene]

298 W VAAA mountain mamaaaaa take me hommme country road

thank you thank you!

aww shxt Jay Robbafella seems to have won
aww well caint have it all

but I see MAC picking up akll the beautiful Hillary whomps of Uhhbama here peeps

this is great, I feel the PUMAs, our DEM base is comin on strong for MAC baby

these peeps planned to call VA right away and others to follow
they have been forced to call 2 for MAC already

299 where do you guys see McCain ahead of Obama in Florida?

300 Cedric, @#225: The voting numbers in Indiana thus far are terrible. McCain is running 10-15% behind Bush in the SAME Republican counties. Unless there is something going on here -- like these are early voting numbers -- it's over.   Which counties?  I'll be the judge of this.   ginaswo, @#226: also on Indiana, we have Mitch Daniels holding GOV, and question here
are Indiana paper ballots? if they are saying exit polls usually favoring Obummer may be under reporting his support due to Obummer voters voting early, what are chances the early votes are being counted first in our primaries our rural Hillary votes always came in last becuase our DEM base is at work.....   Optical scanner.  I don't know what the early voter ballots were like, but there was evidently record early-voter turnout.  I have no idea what that means.

301

The polling places in my small county in Kentucky were PACKED. When I arrived at the high school where I vote, I thought school was in session and called my son to ask if he was sure that he was out of school today because of the election. I arrived at 6:30 a.m. and waited an hour and a half to vote and the line was just as long when I was leaving. I have never seen anything like it in the last 20 years. And I just heard they called Kentucky for McCain big time. Yeehaw!

302 290 - I live in VA and voted for Mac and Warner. I've worked for Gilmore even. Warner is who I want in the Senate. He governed a lot more than I cared for while governor, but he made VERY good choices for our state. I trust Warner.

303 Ultimate PUMA revenge:
Get all PUMA's to vote McCain.
Lie to exit pollsters. And seek them out.
Video Obama suppression/intimidation efforts (I.e. Black Panther shit)
Get Hillary to comment on suppression efforts (begin the fall)
Get her to run in 4 years.
Win. Catch Bill cheating. Again. Divorce the jerk.
Ride off into Sunset.

304 Nice Deb, I was thinking the same thing.  When it rolls over 800, it's getting a bit long.

305

Popping the top on the first beer now.

First? Wussie.

306 You can keep up with the results in Virginia here. So far the counties that show McCain leads appear to be in safe Republican areas.

307

277 - I know just how you feel.

308 Anyone got an Intrade account they want to lend me right about now? I'm just about dying over the money to be made. Not that I'm suggesting anything questionable. Not at all. Honest. Just sort of wishing out loud that, you know, a regular who I'd recognize might cover a brother's back right about now maybe with a paypal transfer of a few hundred or something like that. If that were OK. Which it probably isn't. So I didn't really suggest it and you're misunderstanding if you email me at all about this.

With love,

VRWC_Agent @ hotmail.com

309 I'm so sick of wolf blitzer at this point. Im so sick of the whole "historic" narrative. Every little thing is historic with CNN. God just that narrative is being bias alone because their assuming an obama win.What has been HISTORIC is the BIAS in the media more than anything else.

310 I voted for Gilmore, but Warner really is OK.

Mac will take Virginia.

311

How many people on this thread are drinking?

312

Spypeach,

Don't worry about  Warner in Va.

he was a very popular Gov. and Gilmore is an ass.

I voted straight (R) even though I don't like Gilmore, but a lot of people will split.

 

313 I'm drinking!!!

314 crap they have 9% reporting in FL. now Obama up by 55 to 44

315 Hic! On my first vodka and coke.  Heavy on the vodka.  (And I'm a total lightweight.)

316

311 - very much drinking

317 With all this talk of exit polls & pollsters, I've never actually seen or talked to one. I voted this morning (9:20am) and didn't have to wait at all. I live in Alexandria, VA so its a very blue area. Time to channel surf between some football on ESPN2 & hockey on Comcast.

318 First? Wussie.

Sorry to let you down, JackStraw. I didn't think I could get away with it at work. Catching up, though.

319 There's some straight up fraud going on in henrico county, virginia for obama to be ahead close to 60-40. Its still a 5% incoming vote, but still..

320

Before anyone gets all twisted about VA, remember, the absentee votes will be counted per the court.

 

321 Shit, shouldn't have chugged.

322

Not lookin good folks

This will be an early call- ill take the under on 9:00

323

IN FLORIDA:  THEY PROBABLY DON'T HAVE THE PANHANDLE VOTES COUNTED YET... WHICH IS MOSTLY REPUBLICAN.

324

Im very much drinking as well.... Captain Morgans my friends.

Let's all pray for Johnny Mac, a more honorable man we'll never see running for President before or after.............

325 Dick Morris @ 7:32 PM: Possible Good News for McCain
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 7:37 PM

Article Font Size  

A Republican typically is supposed to carry Indiana and Kentucky.

If he ties in the national race, he is supposed to win each of these two states by 9 points apiece.

So what is happening in these two states?

With 13 percent of the vote in, McCain is winning Indiana by 3 points, 5 less than he should.

But he is winning Kentucky, with 14 percent of the vote, by 11 points — 2 points more than he should.

We need to watch these two states closely.

Once half or more of the vote is in, and we can begin to figure out what is happening, they should give us a clue to what is happening nationally.

Kentucky could be biased against Obama because of his comments about bankrupting the coal industry yesterday.

But results there may suggest this might not be the Obama juggernaut everyone thought.

Let's watch these two states to figure out what is going on.

© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

326

Don't forget...Florida spans 2 time zones.

327 Drinking?

I have a special suit where I over oxygenate any and all liquors and breathe it.

K

328

crap they have 9% reporting in FL. now Obama up by 55 to 44

Those are AP numbers, AP calls different counties. Guess which ones they call firs. Florida doesn't release real numbers until 7:00 Eastern

329 ok, breathe in breathe out, I need another drink.

330 Wine here in Indy...  we have some fine Indiana wines...Easley is one I recommend.   Huber is also good.

331 Joe Biden won a second term per FOX

332 Susan Collins won per FOX
McConnell too close to call in Kentucky
Hagan/Dole too close to call
Chambliss leading in three person race per FOX  Chambliss has 57% bit Fox unwilling to say he is the winner

333 "Exit Polls Are Still Crap" Do people really fill out these exit polls? I mean, I voted this morning and no one came up to me and asked how I voted.

334 Fox just called a Kay Hagan win in NC :-(

335 Question:  are the TV pundits calling the races based upon actual votes or votes and exit polls?   Anybody know?

336 I so dislike Chuckie Shumer, the money he raised for Hagan was effective.

337 Inside Cover RSS ARCHIVE Print Page  |  Forward Page  |  E-mail Us
Dick Morris @ 8:09 PM: Don't Jump to Conclusion on Obama Win
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 8:09 PM

By: Dick Morris Article Font Size  

If you look at Virginia and Kentucky, it looks like a narrow McCain victory.

If you look at Florida and Indiana, it looks like a big Obama win. All four states have less than a quarter of the vote in, so we can't jump to conclusions.

In Virginia, with 19% of the vote in, McCain is winning by 13%. That's about ten points better than it should be for McCain.

In Kentucky, with 23% in, McCain is winning by 15. That's about six points better than it should be for McCain.

But in Florida, with 13% in, Obama is winning by 11 points, which is eleven points better than it should be for Obama.

And in Indiana, McCain is winning by only 3% with 25% in. That's six points less than it should be.

On Senate races, Sue Collins' win in Maine is important. That indicates perhaps that the Dems won't reach 60 votes.

© 2008 Newsmax. All rights reserved.

338 Fox just called NH for BO

339

from campaign spot-

It's Not Quite a Rerun of 2004, But We May Not Be That Far Off

 A person who contrasted the exit poll data with what we know from the results we have in Indiana and some other states concludes that the Democratic bias in the exit polls seems to have declined slightly from 2004, from eight points to roughly five.

Shifting 5 percent from the Obama pile to the McCain pile gives us...

Obama: IA, MI, NH, NM, PA (52-4 WI
McCain: GA, FL, IN, MO, NC, OH, WV
Tie: NV, VA.

If this is the case, we are in for a long and exciting night. Having said that, we don't know for certain that the 5 percent skew is even across the board.

Having said that, ABC News is calling Pennsylvania for Obama, the moment the polls close. Gotta wonder if they've gotten exit polls from central Pennsylvania yet.

340

Question:  are the TV pundits calling the races based upon actual votes or votes and exit polls?   Anybody know?

They use a combo of both or in some intsances if the exit poll is so overwhelming they go with it.

341 well, it will be interesting if the dems get what they want as they said "no matter what we will win this election" then the American people can blame them for all the problems.  Wonder how they will handle that?

BTW, it is obscene what this BO has planned in Chicago.  they keep saying he like big parties.  He paparently threw one in Europe and one after he beat hillary.  Guess that is his form of passing around the kool aid.

342 Dick Morris is a gassbag, in 2000 at this time they called Florida for President Gore. In 2004 at this time they wanted to call it for President Kerry but didn't because they were so embarrassed by 2000. Mack will come back in Florida.

343 I'm sorry if this sounds nasty, but if PA goes to Obama, I hope every coal plant get shut down and thousands of people lose their jobs. They will have no one to blame but themselves.

344

Ah, I think people voting dem are idiots and ignorant, but I dont want anyone to lose their fucking jobs

Unlike the dem scum- who would rather see us get beat in Iraq and take casualties and the economy tank to score politically- Id rather see 1000 years of Dem rule if the economy is kicking ass and we're winning the war on terror

Of course, those are probably contradictory realities, and I suspect if O does what he says hes gonna do- this recesssion is going to get real bad, real fast

345 I feel with thee, spypeach.   They have not been paying attention. 

346 Well how else will they get the message.

347 So, the PUMAs have not been come through.  They weren't avle to deliver PA?

348 How is anybody calling PA with NO precincts reporting?

349 Well that's it folks, Fox called PA. I don't know how McCain can't win without it.

350

According to K-Lo on The Corner:Barone says the calls for Pa are premature.

 

351 I'm on Beer #6...and I'm on the West Coast.

And I'm participating in a company conference call. 

352 Can SOMEONE give their Florida take, anybody have some take on what has come in and what is still out there, wow, this election is like 2004, Ohio and Florida looming large.

Seems like people here are confident about Virginia.

What about North Carolina.

Will McCain hold Indiana.

353

DBinSD

Well, if you work for Coors that might not be so weird

354 Let's just wait for the votes to be counted before crying.  I'm looking at McCain up by 5K votes in total in the popular vote at AOL's site.

-J

355

I plan to move to Zimbabwe, where I am sure a better future awaits me.

 

356 Reading some of these optimistic posts in retrospect is hilarious!

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