We're underdogs like the Texas Tech versus the 'Horns, not Washington State versus USC.

This is doable.

All within the margin of error. It is 3%. Meaning up to a 6% shift could be in Mac's favor.

When they are giving Senator G the numbers for a landslide constantly, i would say these ones should be encouraging. A tie probably means Mac is ahead but they have to keep the narrative. Down by 4 in CO? and VA? Easily able to overcome and we shall with determination and guts like only Americans have.

6 in PA, exactly within the margin meaning a big upset but within the margin so they can say they were close.

If you see how they overwieght immensely to favor Senator Gungrabber then you know these numbers are very very good for us. All of them to close to call and they would call it for Senator Gun Grabber if they could. You know it.

Alien vs Predator

I'm betting the hidden union vote is gonna come on strong.  It has been a stealth issue this campaign but doing away with secret ballots has got to make a lot of union members very nervous.

Now, if we can just get Murtha to open his pie hole one more time before tomorrow....

We're underdogs like the Texas Tech versus the 'Horns, not Washington State versus USC."

Giants vs Patriots

or my rays against the pink nation

these polls show trends that help Mac, but frankly the polls are still bs, take that allah zombies

Cubs vs Dodgers

Er, Greg or Billy read this shit cocksucker,

" McCain gained ground among unaffiliated voters in five of the six states this week."

I guess you guys over at "The One's" didn't get the message, we are going to make you squeal like a pig.

And, I'll bet you got a pretty mouth too.

Victory is ours saith the lord!!

Kemp 

EVERY ELECTION THEY SAY THE REPUBLICAN IS LOSING.  1980 THEY CALLED IT FOR CARTER AND IT WAS A REAGAN LANDSLIDE (BLESS HIS SOUL)

Know what this is like? Waiting for biopsy results.

I've been there.

>>@14 on Rasmussen page it's date 11/01, so you are right. The coal comments hit yesterday. It is a weekend poll which always polls R light.<<

Yeah, but are they fully saturated (the coal comments)? With the MSM cover it might take another 24 for the news to get out fully.

David posted this in a different comment section - looks at Ras poll internals:

Mac +5 I, 14% of D vote vs losing 9% of R vote in OH.
Mac +5 I in MO
Mac +9 I in NC

Those stand out by a quick look through the new Ras polls.  Those numbers indicate those states are not even close.  The poll internals show a decent size Mac win unless there have been Dems hiding somewhere that we don't know about that are suddenly going to appear on election day.  There aren't even enough new ACORN votes to close those gaps.

37 Dude. $550 on McCain on intertrade would win $4500 right now. So tempted...

But if you win, ya gotta promise to spend every last penny on guns. Preferably Evil Black Rifles^©.

Hells-to-tha-yeah. Good Scotch and good guns.

Can anyone who knows statistics explain this to me?

In the small very red states, N. Dakota, Montana, etc. the polls say there's been a twenty point shift from 2004 to now, while the larger population swing states are only seeing a 5-6 point shift. I know the polls are fucked, but what would cause this particular error?

#37,

NO! Valu Rite for all.  Spread the wealth cocksucker!

McCain needs to get 6-7 of every 10 Undecides if the TIPP numbers are accurate.

thats the big difference between TIPP and the others, the number of undecides

The Phillies Won the WORLD SERIES!!!!!!
The Phillies Won the WORLD SERIES!!!!!!
I just like saying that A LOT!

ill forgive them for beating my rays if PA flips red and Mac wins...for now

First time poster, Long time lurker.

That the picture you posted just broke my heart...Again.

Anyway, Keep fighting the good fight to keep the socialist race baiting DB out of the WH.

42 does anyone now if W was up in any polls the day before the election in '04?

Zogby's Election Final Presidential Polls Bush 49.4% 213EV Kerry 49.1% 311EV (barf alert)

Kerry was projected to win 311/213 with 14 undecideds (NV and CO) on 11/2/2004. That's why I'm gonna drop five hundy on McCain, me thinks...

As a Broncos fan, I can appreciate underdogs. Oddly, I tend to think of the Balitomre Ravens the year they won it all. Once the playoffs started, all they needed to do was show up. Their best efforts really weren't that good, but they beat their cocky, overconfident opponents every game. That's all that mattered.

#39 - Have they already started counting the early votes? Thought they waited till tomorrow when the polls close.

No, this is from poll responders who say they've already voted.

Actually, they didn't. It was obvious from hour 1 on election day that Carter was getting his butt kicked. He conceded at 6PM Eastern time, a bad mistake which depressed Democratic turnout in western states where the polls were still open

he means the polls before election day, it was either carter by 1 or reagan by 1 and the landslide was an unseen bursting of the dam according to pat cadell (ive loved him this election cycle), after the 1st debate when doubts about ronald where gone

hmm - maybe the coal thing is having some effect:

http://sistertoldjah.com

first article:

"Ohio Coal Association Says Obama Remarks Make It Clear: Obama Ticket Not Supportive of Coal"

Send the Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers back to Chicago!

How long did it take to come up with that one?

I may have to write in Belichick as my Presidential vote now.

Why is it us long suffering Pats fans always have to be so maligned?  I froze my ass of in the cheap seats in Foxboro for years watching 2-13 teams.  And now we are synonymous with Teh Obama? 

I only trust in-trade (they were right in 2004 and 2006).  I will ignore the polls but I wish the spread on in-trade would move.

As more people learn about InTrade, it becomes more a propaganda tool than a secret insiders poll. At some point, it's no longer going to be accurate. Let's hope it's tomorrow.

Tomorrow night I'll be watching Gotterdammerung.  I just can't bear to watch the coverage.  Even FOX in 2004 was like watching a graveyard, at least till later in the night.

I'll still be hoping, though.

So let me get this straight- early voting shows a "blowout" winner ahead by 1 point? McCain making up huge ground toward election day in real voting, not polling.

The TIPP undecideds increased?

To almost 10 percent? Obama not close to 50 %, on a weekend polling.

Maybe I'm whistling past our graveyard but this makes no sense unless McCain (who looked unusually upbeat today) has an army ready to pounce tomorrow.

I saw a high school senior with a handwritten sign in the back winodw for the car.  It said, "McCain '08" and was written on a piece of notebook paper.

I'd say there's hope.

Psssst. Don't tell AllahPundit's acolytes!!!

or they'll label you a troll and attack you for fighting for optimism the way they did to me

Patriot hater?  More like Patriot jealousy...which team are you a fan of?  Probably those whirlwind Jets...

jeleousy? nope moron i don't like cheaters and arrogant thugs that think the championship should be handed to him (sound like anyone you know? *cough* barry *cough*), why do you think so many cheered them losing the sb?

my team are the bucs and i can be proud knowing when they won the super bowl in 03 they didn't use cameras to do it, i rooted for the pats to pull the upset in sb 36 and they ended up becoming everything i hate in a team

you patriots fans are so touchy.

they've been on the defense since spygate

Hero/Hottie have all the momentum going into tomorrow. It's been nothing but bad news and unforced errors for Team Bike Helmet.

I like our chances.

You know that horrible feeling when your team is running a prevent defense while the opponent keeps throwing underneath and moving the chains?

That's how the other guys feel.

I have a very hard time with rassmussen due to the fact that McCain leads by 3 in the South. HUH?

Sorry, but that is utter crap unless he's including South Philadelphia.

I'm generally a pessimist, but I'm 100% convinced that the polls are crap. Overweighting of democrats, tons of so-called undecideds, the ghost of Mayor Bradley, the late breakout of the coal issue in swing states, etc..

It'll be tight due to fraud, but McCain will pull this out. The only downside is that the loony left is so convinced of an Obama victory that they're gonna be extra rioty.

So now we got this: Bush's transition smoothest since the invention of The Brazilian

So, what happened to "marshall law" [sic]?

guess I will just shut up then topsecretk9 since you are the king of the blog - all hail your power and wisdom

holy crap!

some guy just reported being attacked by obama zombies on a radio show in my local tampa market and the guy said that they kept saying: "you're white ass is gonna' pay for me while i stay at home."

some guy just reported being attacked by obama zombies on a radio show in my local tampa market and the guy said that they kept saying: "you're white ass is gonna' pay for me while i stay at home."

Did he have a backwards B carved into his cheek, too?

The polls are tighter than my wife's legs

Ha!

I'm getting a t-shirt, Spread Legs Not Wealth

Did he have a backwards B carved into his cheek, too?

no need to get suspicious, its a simple talk radio phone call

The polls are tighter than my wife's legs

Ha!

I'm getting a t-shirt, Spread Legs Not Wealth

and jack's mouth is as big as the grand canyon today :p

 1980 THEY CALLED IT FOR CARTER

Sorry I worded that badly. I meant to say the polls said Carter was going to win and thank God he got hammered by Reagan

and jack's mouth is as big as the grand canyon today :p

Today?  Why, because I said you're a whiny little bitch who has been spamming thread after thread on this blog since you showed up here the other day with your personal vendetta against Allah and it's getting old?  Because I read your attempt to slam Allah on Hot Air and don't agree that Allah sent his minions out to get you but rather people told you to get lost because you were acting like an asshole?  Because I think you're an idiot with an over inflated self-view of your importance in speaking truth to power and getting out the vote?

Today?  Nah.  I'll be saying that tomorrow, too.

I am going to TImes Square for a McCain rally tomorrow morning.  Should a GMA, tv or radio guy ask me for a comment, what should I say (or anyone else who is asked).  I think something along the lines of

--Senator McCain will be a strong leader, good on the economy, and, for example, energy policy, and strong against our enemies the world; and

--Senator Obama seems to be surrounded by radicals, scary preachers, and criminals, has almost no experience, wants to make our country more socialist, and I don't find him trustworthy.  He isn't Hillary Clinton; he scares the hell out of me.

From Mac's campaign:

McCAIN CAMPAIGN MEMO: READING THE EXIT POLLS
Mon Nov 03 2008 16:53:14 ET

As we have seen in previous election cycles, the exit poll results do leak early and that ends up influencing the coverage of the race before even the first state polls close at 6:00 PM Eastern.

However, we want to remind the campaign that the media’s own post-election study of the exit polls in 2004 showed that the exit polls overstate the Democratic candidate’s support. Therefore, we would discourage a rush to judgment based on the exit polls and wait until there has been a representative sampling of actual tabulated results from a variety of counties and precincts in a state.

Here are the key points to keep in mind when the exit poll data starts being leaked:

1. Historically, exit polls have tended to overstate the Democratic vote.

2. The exit polls are likely to overstate the Obama vote because Obama voters are more likely to participate in the exit poll.

3. The exit polls have tended to skew most Democratic in years where there is high turnout and high vote interest like in 1992 and 2004.

4. It is not just the national exit poll that skews Democratic, but each of the state exit polls also suffers from the same Democratic leanings.

5. The results of the exit polls are also influenced by the demographics of the voters who conduct the exit polls.

After the 2004 election, the National Election Pool completed a study investigating why the exit polls that year showed John Kerry over performing 5.5 net points better than the actual results showed him to have done. Their conclusion was that the primary reason the exit polls was that Kerry voters and Democrats were more likely to participate in the exit polls.

“Our investigation of the differences between the exit poll estimates and the actual vote count point to one primary reason: in a number of precincts a higher than average Within Precinct Error most likely due to Kerry voters participating in the exit polls at a higher rate than Bush voters. There has been partisan overstatements in previous elections, more often overstating the Democrat, but occasionally overstating the Republican.

We believe that this will hold true this year. The recent Fox News survey showed that 46% of Obama voters said they were very likely to participate in the exit polls, while just 35% of McCain supporters are.

In fact, even the 2004 exit poll report noted that higher turnout nationally and higher levels of voter interest in both 1992 and 2004 correlated with greater Within Precinct Error.

The overstating of the Democratic vote did not only occur in the national exit polls, but also occurred in the state exit polls. The 2004 exit poll report cited that the Kerry vote was overstated by more than one standard error in 26 states, while the Bush vote was overstated in just four states. So we should also expect the individual state exit polls on Tuesday to be more Democratic as well.

So given that turnout is expected to be even higher than 2004 and that Democrats are more likely to participate in the exit polls, this means we should expect greater fluctuation and variation in the exit polls from the actual election results.

The 2004 exit poll report also showed that the greatest error in the exit poll came in precincts where the interviewer was younger. The completion rates were lower and the refusal rates and Within Precinct Error was higher when the interviewers were under the age of 35.[6] Complicating this is that nearly half the interviewers were under the age of 35, including 35% who were 18-24 and another 15% were 25-34.

Conclusions

Based on the previous exit poll results, we should expect once again that Tuesday’s exit poll data could overstate the Obama vote and under represent the McCain vote.

It is important that the campaign make sure the media realizes this, so that when the exit polls do leak, people do not overreact to the early exit poll data. Rather than looking at the exit polls, we should wait until we start seeing actual election results from key precincts and counties to gauge who won the election.

I saw on one of the Hillary forums that Obama was pulling out of NC to defend VA and PA. Is this true?

And if "McCain tied in NC" = "Internals so bad Obama is pulling out", that's great news for the other states.

We can do this thing. Send the Fresh Prince of Bill Ayers back to Chicago!

ROFLMAO!!!  GREAT line..

note to guy in norcal:  i saw the wright ad last night during the football game..  in mississippi..  maybe they're running it all over?  certainly there's no doubt about which way your state and mine are going..

If we're talking football analogies, nothing beats Denver and "The Drive". Still, all these years later I'll never forget Elway's unbelievable effort to take it home.

Go Mac! The game is not over until the buzzer sounds.

I started looking for a video about a half hour ago and never found one exclusive to the drive, and still got lost over there looking at whatever popped up. I always get lost in there!

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