1 that is my favorite so far.  Very cute, too.

2 We had a Gov. Palin at our house last night, accompanied by Jeff Gordon. So she truly is sewing up that NASCAR support.

3 I love it!

4 you broke my cute meter.

5 cute

6 Heh.

But remember now, Palin is a drag on the ticket. The Deciders™ said so.

7 My only question is: did the little girl really wanna go trick or treating as Palin?!

8 Better than the last video.

That there shows, erm, hope - for the future.

I feel dirty using the word "hope".  I hate that.

9 have you seen this from hotair? the subtitle is "gulp." someone please tell me it's not impossible.... Gallup: Obama now leads by 10 among both traditional and “expanded” likely voters hotair.com

10 I'm off to see Palin tomorrow here in Columbus and am so psyched!

11 Interesting pre-school  report you have there cutie-pie. Says you spilled your sippy cup on one of your playmates. That's going to follow you around for a long long time.

12 Ace, I thought the worst nightmare for liberals was waking up in ma' and pa's basement, going upstairs, finding the house empty and coming to the  realization ma' and pa' done packed up and left and went to that nice condo in Florida they blew your inheritance on.

13

Awww! Makes me wish I had a girl to dress up! My boys will have nothing less than some sort of military outfit, or in the case of my oldest last night, A Cereal Killer. He got so many compliments as he wore the partially mutilated cereal boxes on a felt vest I whipped up.

I didn't forget the fun, tho. I went to IowaHawk's site and saved that "I AM JOE" jpg and printed up about 20 of 'em, about bumper sticker size. I wore one on the front and back of my shirt (the hubby taped one on too has he hung back handing out candy and drinking beers with the other neighbor dads). I had quite a few people say "Joe The Plumber" with excitement and thumbs up! Passed out most of the ones I printed up too. Was really encouraging especially since maybe three in our neighborhood have put up signs (Our McP and Country First signs have been up for over a month now).

14 Stevenmcd, I have a question. Are you concerned? Are you conservative? And are you Christian?

Just curious.

15 So, Ace, do you think it's worth putting up the Quinn & Rose show audio?  Have you heard it?  Yeah - there'll be skeptics (myself one of them), but there's also plenty of signs pointing to what they are saying.

16 That video is too adorable!  You betcha.  Love it! 

And CInAz, love your son's Cereal Killer thing, hilarious!

17 And yes, she's still more qualified than That One.

18 Tip on voter fraud:

http://tinyurl.com/54usxq

Two Obama campaign workers suspected of voting here illegally have withdrawn their ballots, prompting the Columbiana County elections board to drop its investigation.

Molly Thompson and Peter Grant Jr., both of whom are from other states, submitted separate letters Friday asking the elections board to withdraw the registration and ballots they cast on Sept. 30.

It gets better:

Thompson, 30, of Charlotte, N.C., and Grant, 23, of Bellevue, Wash., both live with local "host" families while in the county working for the Obama campaign. On their voter registration applications they listed the host families as their new residence.........

The local host for Thompson is Bea Delpapa, of state Route 517, Lisbon, who serves as the presiding poll worker at her precinct. Delpapa wrote a letter to editor that ran several weeks ago criticizing Johnson for suggesting the Obama campaign was engaging in voter fraud, which he now finds ironic considering what has occurred.

More? You want more. TAKE IT, BABY!

Delpapa said she didn't know Thompson had even voted locally until the story hit the local papers earlier in the week after a complaint was filed by Nancy Cope, secretary of the county Republican Party.

Secondly, Delpapa said she was unaware of the law because it has never been brought up by elections board staff during any of the poll worker training sessions she attended.

"My function as presiding judge (of poll workers) is to make sure we have a transparent and fair election, and there isn't an election judge more fair or conscientious than me," she said.

19

The internal polls are the ones we should be paying attention to. Have you heard this yet?

 

 

20 Okay - so Nice Deb says it's worth it.  Aren't you an "Open Blogger?"  Or is the audio "silly?"

21

I see Editor beat me to it. But I provided the link. Make what you will of it.

22 Nice Deb, I have tried to listen to that a couple of times today.  Does it just take forever to load or is it something on my end?

23 I was going to put it up on open blog, earlier, but I had to go lay down. I'm dying here with a bilateral ear infection, ruptured eardrum both sides...the hydrocodone puts me to sleep.

24 It takes a while to load, you have to be patient, but it's worth it.

25 Posted by: CB at November 01, 2008 03:55 PM (9Wv2j)

The trick I found was to reload.  After reloading, it always starts right back where you left off, so then you get at the front of the line.  But, yeah, it takes awhile.

26

Posted by: Nice Deb at November 01, 2008 03:52 PM (Yccrl)

Deb, I've been posting those around to provoke discussion, but those leaked internal 1-day snapshot polls are nonsense! I wouldn't be surprised if they're a Republican psy-op.

55-38 in PA? McCain down 1 in CA? Wins NJ?

I wish!

27 Jeez, Nice Deb, let me shoot you a "poor baby!"  Hope you are on the mend and feeling better soon.

Will try again on the audio, thanks for the tips, guys.

28 Editor, CB, what worked for me was just to download the whole thing... it took a while because of a slow server, but then I could listen at my leisure. "Right click, save as".

29 Get well soon, Deb.

30

Thanks, guys. I hope I get my hearing back. I was going to do some GOTV calls this weekend, but I'm 3/4 deaf right now.

 

So, should I post the thing, or what?

31 Sure, post it. I've been trying to get people to talk about it.

But myself, Ed Morrissey, and others I'm sure feel it's nonsense. But interesting nonsense.

32 Ed Morrissey just predicted a McCain win by 2 points, by the way. He's not a pessimist, but still, these polls... I think are a psyche!

33 I'm a bit skeptical, too.  BUT there are plenty of indicators out there.  I don't care what anybody says - the PUMAS are huge.  HUGE.  There's nothing to compare it to.  Not the Reagan Democrats.  Not Blue Dogs.  Not 2000.  Not 2004.  Nothing.  Instead, the PUMAS additions to Reagan Dems, Blue Dogs, etc.

34

It's already posted at Hot Air? I don't go over there as much as I used to. Bunch of Eeyores over there.

Interestingly, I've grown to love and appreciate those Hillbuzz gals. I don't comment over there out of shame - I'm slammed Hillary so much in the past.

35 I was wrong. 55-33 in PA, not 55-38.

Come on! Those numbers are nuts.

36 Come on! Those numbers are nuts.

Posted by: Christoph at November 01, 2008 04:11 PM (hawOV)

Are they Christopher?  Are they?  What if the rural areas were pushed JUST enough by Murtha's comments? 

37 It's already posted at Hot Air?

No, Ed was talking about it on his radio show after I brought it up.

And... Allahpundit was EXACTLY right in 2006. I was one of the optimists lampooning him.

Ed is calling it for McCain. How can he be an Eeyore?

Yes, the HillBuzz folks are awesome. Whackily overly optimistic, but they're hustling they're asses off and that's good enough for me.

38 What if the rural areas were pushed JUST enough by Murtha's comments? 

Well, great, Editor, if so. But these are the alleged numbers (via Red State):

The "GOP Internal Polling" firm, which demanded it remain anonymous, has John McCain beating Obama 48% to 43% in New Jersey, with seven percent undecided.

In Pennsylvania, Michigan, and California, the results are:

PENNSYLVANIA

McCain 55% Obama 33% Undecided 10%

MICHIGAN

McCain 44% Obama 42% Undecided 10%

California

McCain 43% Obama 44% Undecided 9%

I wish I could believe. I really do.

39 Why do you think Obama's been spending so much time in PA?

40

Good God Deb.  Ouch.

 

Get well soon.

41 39 "Why do you think Obama's been spending so much time in PA?"

Maybe he's lookin' to get lynched.

42 that is adorable...

43

THE PATH TO  VICTORY FOR McCAIN IS IN OUR HANDS

The media polls are heavily weighted towards Democrats in terms of Party ID. With that kind of heavy weighting, it would be impossible for McCain to show any lead even if he had a small led among independents. For example, Rasmussen currently assumes the following party id break down: Democrats 40%, Republicans 32.8%, and Independents 27.2%. He is assuming a whopping 7 percent advantage in party id for the Democrats. This is a big barrier to overcome in these polls. If we assume a 85% Democrat support for Obama and 85% Republican support for McCain and a 50/50 breakdown among independents (ignore undecided and third party candidates) this would translate to a poll finding of 52.5% for Obama and 47.5% for McCain which incidentally gives the same 5% spread as in the current Rasmussen poll.

Note that all of this is simply from the 7% party id advantage. If we reduce the party id spread to 3%, the numbers would change to 51% for Obama and 49% to McCain. Now if we assume that McCain picks off more Democrats than Obama does Republicans, 85% Democrats for Obama and 90% Republicans for McCain then the outcome will be 49.3% for Obama and 50.7% for McCain, a clear LEAD.

What this simple analysis shows is that there are two crucial things for McCain victory:

a) HIGH Republican turnout.

b) HIGH PUMA (Democrats against Obama) turnout.

I strongly believe that both are very achievable. It all comes down to TURNOUT, GOTV, and ENTHUSIASM. This is why Obama and his media acolytes are working overtime to demorialize and suppress the turnout among Republicans and PUMAs. We have to keep working hard, ignore their propaganda, and get out and vote.

One final thing. Rasmussen has been steadily increasing his Dem party id advantage over the last three months. I suspect the same with other pollsters working for major media news organizations. However, the Republican base and the PUMAs are as energized as the Dem base and may in fact be even more energized. In addition to this, if last minute deciders go overwhelmingly against Obama as happened during the Democratic primaries in the swing states, McCain should win by an even bigger margin. The media and their pollsters are in for a huge surprise.

From an ex-Democrat turned independent supporting McCain/Palin '08.

 

 

 

 

 

 

44 Why do you think Obama's been spending so much time in PA?

Because the race is closer than 22 percentage points.

45 31 Sure, post it. I've been trying to get people to talk about it.

But myself, Ed Morrissey, and others I'm sure feel it's nonsense. But interesting nonsense.

Is it possible that I am the only moron here who regularly fantasizes about 10 minutes in a dark alley with that pompous little pimple and a phillips-head screwdriver?

46
Because the race is closer than 22 percentage points.

Posted by: Christoph at November 01, 2008 04:19 PM (hawOV)

Dude - what?  So you're saying he'd be there if it was 20-points?  15-points?  10-points?

47 double ear drum bust... I cannot imagine the pain... but at least you don't have to listen to hopey changey commercials all day. hope you get better soon Deb...

48

Okay, I put up a post. So if you want to talk about the polls, that's the place.

Let this thread be about the darling munchkin..

49 Thanks, Kaptain.

50 What a little cutie!!!

51 Must.
Get.
Insulin.
Injection.

52 Ridiculously cute and adorable.

During GOTV today I heard Zogby has McCain up 1 nationally - given my loath for polls, I'd rather not hear anything about them, but that did put a little spring in my step considering how they normally "weigh" their samples.

Doing more calls from home later tonight for MO, NM, and NV.

This is in reach......

53 The little kid is smarter than the Obot bimbo who thinks Obongo is going to pay for her gas and her mortgage

54 That is a darling munchkin.  I hope La Palin gets to see that one.

55
45 Posted by: CB at November 01, 2008 04:22 PM (9Wv2j)

No, that's just not possible.

56 When my 17 yo daughter was that age, she had the exact same doll and the exact same sass. There's nothing cuter than a 3 yo girl with an audience.

57

I have never understood why it is valid to "correct" for party identification.  Isn't a random sample, um... random?  If I poll a bunch of people and end up with 50% Republicans, on what basis do I make the decision that I only actually should have had 45% (or 35% for chrissakes) and decrease the voting intentions I measured for the Republican candidate by multiplying them by 45/50?

You know what I think?  I hope you're sitting down, here, but I think that pollsters GET PAID MORE and GET USED MORE OFTEN if they produce the results their customers want!  "Get outta here!" you say.  I know it's hard to believe that Democrats might indulge in jigging the polls, and that they might have plenty af cash to pay for it, but that's what I'm thinking, crazy as it may sound!

Oh, and by the way... remember when you "adjust" a Republican's votes down from 50% to 45% based on assumed voter identification, that isn't a 5% reduction.

It's a 10% reduction.  Now do you understand why Obama is campaigning in Pennsy?

58

AAARRRGGHHHH!!!!!!

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59 It's true! Live children are their worst nightmare! Some how this one survived.

60 Someone get that kid a rocket launcher.

61 Idea for someone whose YouTube-fu is mighty: a Sarah Palin highlight reel set to the song "Ricochet" by Shiny Toy Guns:

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