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Truth, Lies, and Your Brain on Obama [someone]

Look, at this point I don't know if this is real or fake. It looks to be by the same person who wrote the famous HillBuzz comment Rush read on the air yesterday. But whatever its origin, it's riveting stuff, actually even better than that comment.

First, a little personal background I am a female grad student in my 20s, and a registered Democrat. During the primaries, I was a campaign worker for the Clinton candidacy. I believed in her and still do, staying all the way to the bitter end. And believe me, it was bitter. [...] As a part of his overall effort to extend an olive branch to the Clinton camp and her supporters, Obama took on a few Hillary staff members into his campaign. I was one such worker.
The post makes a number of interesting points about the campaign (and you should read the whole thing), but the most important comes near the end.
As part of my research duties, I scour right wing blogs and websites to get somewhat of a feel as to what is being talked about on the other side. Much of it is nonsense, but there are some exceptions which give the campaign jitters. A spirited campaign has been made to infiltrate many pro-Hillary sites and discredit them. A more disorganized, but genuine effort has also been made to sow doubts among the unapologetically right wing sites such as redstate.com. Dont you guys get it? This has been the Obama campaigns sole strategy from the very beginning! The only way he wins is over a dispirited, disorganized, and demobilized opposition. This is how it has been for all of his campaigns. What surprises me is that everyone has fallen for it.
(Emphasis added... For Allahpundit.) Finally, the dots are connected about the polls:
How did we skew these polls, you might ask? It all starts with the media buzz which has been generated over the campaign. Many stories are generated on the powerful Obama ground game, and how many new voters were registered. None of this happens by coincidence. It is all part of the poll-skewing process. This makes pollsters change their mixes to reflect these new voters and tilt the mix more towards Democratic voters. What is not mentioned or reported on is not the under-reported cell phone users or young voters we hear so much about. What is underreported is you.
Again, whether this is real or hoax, we damn well need to act like it's true (because it is) and get out there.

On a similar theme, HillBuzz reminds us of the psyops Axelrod tried against Hillary in the primaries and has planned for us in the next five days:

(1) Calls for McCain to just give up and quit, because the race is over.
[...]
(2) Wild claims of Obama winning states that shock and surprise you.
[...]
(3) Repeated insistance that blacks and young people will decide this election, and they are all going to vote in record numbers for Obama.
(Note that we've seen the Axelturfers already trying all three.) Read the whole thing: among the stuff I've left out is some pointed discussion of Eeyoreism.

I should mention that I'm glad this site has been one of the few big blogs where Eeyoreism hasn't gotten much of a foothold. Whether honest or not, it's totally counterproductive -- particularly in this home stretch.

Posted by: Open Blog at 11:10 AM



Comments

1 I saw this on redstate and am glad to see it posted here as well.

I have no way to judge how true it is, but it is most certainly consistent with all things Obama.

Please take the time to read the full article.  Then pass it along to your friends and enemies... especially your enemies!

Posted by: buddy in MD at October 31, 2008 11:30 AM (2CkdP)

2 One thing is for certain:  Allahpundit needs to be taken to the woodshed for some "political re-education".

Posted by: EC at October 31, 2008 11:31 AM (mAhn3)

3 I just can't buy this thing.  I want to....but I can't.

So go vote.

Posted by: Sean Bannion at October 31, 2008 11:33 AM (epqk/)

4

"(2) Wild claims of Obama winning states that shock and surprise you."

Anybody else remember when Obama was totally gonna kick Hillary's ass in PA the day before the primary?

 

yeah.

Posted by: Spade at October 31, 2008 11:34 AM (7WUru)

5 As a concerned Christian conservative, I have doubts about this story, as much as I'd like to believe it.  I just think we're fucking doomed.

Yours,
CCC

Posted by: I make > $140,000 at October 31, 2008 11:35 AM (5aa4z)

6

It will be so fun Tuesday evening when the Obamamessiah starts going downhill - I'm going to watch MSNBC so I don't miss Olberjerk and Chrissy hanging themselves.

Don't you just love the smell of roasting troll in the morning.

Posted by: Murph at October 31, 2008 11:35 AM (Dw2sU)

7 Even if you are one to doubt this post you would have to admit that Axelrod is making Karl Rove look like Opie Taylor. This get out the vote thing really appears to be obfuscation for a greater agenda. Barack is the first CGI candidate.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 31, 2008 11:36 AM (e2mBS)

8 Well, unlike you I can give credit where credit is due and say this is a good post, someone.

I'm not at all sure if this person is real or if it's a clever person on the GOP's side who is using a legend to promote a truth. (Fake but accurate.)

However, it could well be true on its face.

HillBuzz had another good post about this and other voter suppression psy ops tactics that I think you should all read. It's well written so it goes quickly.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 11:37 AM (hawOV)

9 Actually, my bad, you linked to HillBuzz and gave them credit for this. Nonetheless, it is indeed a good thesis.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 11:38 AM (hawOV)

10 This is definitely not going to be the 57 state landslide that Obomber knew. It is definitely not over. My gut is telling me at worst that we are in a dead heat and this is McCain's election to take.

Scratch that - I'm not voting for McCain. I am voting for MY COUNTRY and its preservation. He just happens to be the name on the ballot.

Believe no polls, trolls and eeyores. EVERYBODY SHOW UP AND VOTE REPUBLICAN DOWN THE LINE.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 31, 2008 11:39 AM (zpaDL)

11 Am fairly new to blogging but just have to ask - is Allahpundit schizophrenic?

Posted by: IC at October 31, 2008 11:39 AM (jZNCU)

12 Oh God... I got invited to watch the returns at a friends house, she throws a lot of parties and is a committed lefty as are about 95% of the people to go to their parties, she's a fun person, so I enjoy the parties, but if I was really confident that we were getting an 8 point, 310 EV victory, I would go! But While that's my dream, my head says it will be too close.

Posted by: billhedrick at October 31, 2008 11:39 AM (gTZyc)

13

PUMAS are a force to be reckoned with and no one is reporting it.

I honestly can't wait for Tuesday when all of this shit explodes in the Obots faces.

 

Posted by: SueM at October 31, 2008 11:40 AM (aGlT0)

14 No, but he stays up late, IC, and that plays havoc with his mood. Just ask Ace.

To make up for my linking to a HillBuzz post someone already covered, I'll link to another one... that alexthechick in particular will appreciate.

It's not related or anything.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 11:41 AM (hawOV)

15

Dick Morris has been talking along these lines for a while.  The Obamatilla can send thousand of nutrootz myrmidons out to encourage Eeyoreism.  What better disguise then to say your a very disappointed conservative, that's much better cover than posting "as a Christian Conservative...".

 

 

Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at October 31, 2008 11:41 AM (k+BtF)

16

the doom and gloom on the right is extremely counter-productive.  Thing is they think they are being 'fair' and taking the blinders off.

Posted by: jp at October 31, 2008 11:42 AM (DFDtC)

17

Fuck that piece of human debris Axelrod and his Communist Ken Doll Barry.



Posted by: Sen. Rev. Dr. E Buzz at October 31, 2008 11:43 AM (sf4Oe)

18

is Allahpundit schizophrenic?

No, just a moby asshole with a blogging gig.  He's the #1 reason  I haven't been to Hotair.com in weeks.  If I wanted to read his sort of crap, I'd hang out on KKKos or HuffnpuffPost.

Sorry, but I just can't stand the guy.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 11:43 AM (wzNME)

19

Posted by: billhedrick at October 31, 2008 11:39 AM (gTZyc)

Why not volunteer to drive people to the polls instead, and then party with your team? I've done that for our elections and it's fun. Plus they usually have good food.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 11:43 AM (hawOV)

20 how many of these astroturfers do you think are working on the Govt. dime in some Social Services office?

Posted by: jp at October 31, 2008 11:43 AM (DFDtC)

21 I've always been a fan of irrational hope in the face of despair.  If I lose, I would have lost anyway.  If I win, I didn't waste my orgone worrying.

Stick to the plan until the bitter end.

Posted by: toby928 at October 31, 2008 11:44 AM (PD1tk)

22

how many of these astroturfers do you think are working on the Govt. dime in some Social Services office?

Quite a few, I'm sure.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 11:44 AM (wzNME)

23 Oh Noes!  McCain iz gainin in pollz! Whatever do we doez?

Shit.  Wrong blog.

Posted by: Obamamaniac at October 31, 2008 11:45 AM (5aa4z)

24 Who knows if this is true.  If it's not, it's really a good job of lying.  Anyway, what interests me most is this part:

Many stories are generated on the powerful Obama ground game, and how many new voters were registered. None of this happens by coincidence.

It provides a good motive for all the fraudulent ACORN voter registrations.  The Left's lame defense that these fraudulent registrations don't matter since they won't result in actual votes is really bullshit if they're affecting the polls as this poster suggests.

Posted by: SlaveDog at October 31, 2008 11:47 AM (H6Jyg)

25

While it certainly may be "fake but accurate" my first read of it makes me think it may actually be real.

Especially when you look back to the primaries and you see the victories that weren't for Obama late in the game, especially including Penn. And I tell you, the 80% hang up rate intrigues me.

If you go to RCP's electoral map, and jigger the numbers to give Penn to McCain, then this campaign is very much a toss up.

Thank you Jack Murtha.

Posted by: Lee at October 31, 2008 11:48 AM (Xb3DR)

26

is Allahpundit schizophrenic?

No, just a moby asshole with a blogging gig.  He's the #1 reason  I haven't been to Hotair.com in weeks.  If I wanted to read his sort of crap, I'd hang out on KKKos or HuffnpuffPost.

Sorry, but I just can't stand the guy.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 11:43 AM (wzNME)

Fernandozer, I'll tell you a true story for what it's worth.

In 2006, I bought A.J. Strata's many mathematical models about how the GOP was going to way overperform the polls.

I was one of the people who mercilessly lampooned Allahpundit and to a lesser degree, Ace, for their unreasonable pessimism as I saw it.

Well, they were right. In particular Allahpundit who was almost exactly right. I think he's one of the smartest political analysts I've ever seen. Yes, he's also a bit morose.

Fast forward to 2008. Both Ace and Allahpundit are more optimistic this time than last time. I think that's a great sign. A.J. Strata is still promoting mathematical models about how the Republicans are going to kick butt... make of that what you will.

I think the GOP has a chance, but there's no great reason to assume it's anything like close to in the bag. It's worth fighting for, hard. The stakes demand it.

Obama is terrible. I don't mean foolish and weak. I mean dangerous and strong.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 11:48 AM (hawOV)

27 Allahpundit needs to be taken to the woodshed for some "political re-education".

Yeah, the guy's a traitor. All the polls are cooked, including Fox News's. Doesn't he read HillBuzz?

Posted by: Allah at October 31, 2008 11:49 AM (wsk0o)

28 Powerful Obama ground game? Is ACORN a part of that game?

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 31, 2008 11:49 AM (e2mBS)

29

My parents and I were dems all our life and we voted for Hillary.

Now: My father, my mother, my brother, his wife, and I are all voting McCain this year----1st time ever for a Republican....

My sister is voting obama (she graduated from Brown U)

I know more families like us, past dems, registered dems, voting McCain.

didn't need swiftboaters this year---obama created his own nemesis when he shat on us Hillary supporters (cheating caucuses, stealing votes) callin us all kinds of vile names online....Hillary supporters have L O N G memories.....

NEVER SURRENDER, NEVER FORGET ---those early voting dems are people like our family !

 

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 11:49 AM (+/c0N)

30

MSNBC has just announced a partnership with the "non-partisan" Election Protection group to make sure nobody gets disenfranchised.  Take a look at their partners page, a cornucopia of left wing, Soros funded groups.  Just organizing the community.

 

http://tinyurl.com/6gkehk

Posted by: JackStraw at October 31, 2008 11:50 AM (VW9/y)

31

As a concerned Christian conservative, I have doubts about this story, as much as I'd like to believe it.  I just think we're fucking doomed.

Yours,
CCC

and pigs are flying as we speak, thanks for making this thread's own point nimrod

is Allahpundit schizophrenic?

No, just a moby asshole with a blogging gig.  He's the #1 reason  I haven't been to Hotair.com in weeks.  If I wanted to read his sort of crap, I'd hang out on KKKos or HuffnpuffPost.

Sorry, but I just can't stand the guy.

amen bud, personally i think he should be fired and taken off that site, you've missed out the last week though the guy is scrambling for negative posts and can't seem to get as much pessimistic news as he used to and is claiming he can be positive as things fall apart for his pessimistic views

Oh Noes!  McCain iz gainin in pollz! Whatever do we doez?

Shit.  Wrong blog.

LMAO

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 11:52 AM (004wR)

32

BTW--

I ain't white....but I'm married to one...

 

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 11:52 AM (+/c0N)

33

Yeah, the guy's a traitor. All the polls are cooked, including Fox News's. Doesn't he read HillBuzz?

if this is really allah, thanks for proving what a tool for the polls you are w/ that comment, btw i've noticed it's been getting harder to find the pessimistic news, guess you can' take a sh*t as easily now w/o negative polls to tell you to do so

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 11:53 AM (004wR)

34

Imagine that? I have been saying this now to you guys for weeks.

Agitation in the alinsky lane. All just a hoax. You will all see the mighty Messiah fall. McCain will win. He will win states he was not expected to.

Trust america. It is deeply divided. However, there are far more sensable and reasonable folks than sometimes get credit. Alot of dems will not vote for the redistributionist-in-chief.

Look at McCain and Palin closing. They are pumped and full of life. Senator Government just bombed on 5 different networks with a gigantic ad buy. Everyday there is a drip on how radical and what a lefty he really is.

Stand up and Fight.

Posted by: PPP at October 31, 2008 11:54 AM (zzms8)

35 "Even if you vote for Obama, youre still probably a racist", according to Harvard law professor Charles Ogletree

This is because Obama is half white. So the populous is subliminally voting for the white part of Obama. I wonder which are the white parts?

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 31, 2008 11:56 AM (e2mBS)

36
What's the story on this year's exit polls?

I remember that in 2006 there was a concerted effort by the MSM not to report early results because of the 2004 exit polls disaster.

Anybody know the plans for Tuesday?

Posted by: Tinian at October 31, 2008 11:56 AM (Ohodx)

37 Very good points, PPP.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 11:56 AM (wzNME)

38

It's interesting.  Certainly plausible.  It at least meets the "fake but accurate" test of CBS and Dan Rather.  (BTW do you know P. Noonan used to work for Rather?)

If this kind of thing works, we have only ourselves to blame.  Day in and day out bloggers criticize, dissect, fisk, and refute the MSM and their flawed polls. Yet, come election time, we exult, despair, with each turn of the same flawed surveys and the often cluesless "analysis" that accompany them.

It seems to me that role model here is US Grant.  His pal Sherman sums up why: "Wilson, I'm a ****ed sight smarter man than Grant; I know more about organization, supply and administration and about everything else than he does; but I'll tell you where he beats me and where he beats the world. He don't give a **** for what the enemy does out of his sight but it scares me like hell. I'm more nervous than he is. I am much more likely to change my orders or to countermarch my command than he is. He uses such information as he has according to his best judgment; he issues his orders and does his level best to carry them out without much reference to what is going on about him...."

Posted by: craig d henry at October 31, 2008 11:57 AM (32Ux6)

39

Uh, guys?  McCain is behind with only 4 days to go.  We should do whatever we can to help defeat Obama, but the fact is that The One probably has a 75% chance of winning as things stand, and there's nothing that anyone reading AoS can do to change those odds.  That's neither pessimism or deafeatism.  Thanks to the MSM, most Obama voters don't have the slightest fucking clue who the man they're voting for actually is.

If Obama does win the impact will last for decades in the form of new entitlement spending, leftist judges who wipe their ass with the Constitution every morning, and potentially disasterous foreign policy consequences.  We need to start thinking about how to best handle it.   

The only consolation if Obama wins?  That we hopefully don't repeat the mistake of nominating a "maverick" moderate over an actual conservative next time.  And let's not forget the last time an inexperienced liberal who talked about "hope" and placating our enemies won the election- Reagan stomped him 4 years later.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2008 11:57 AM (rf03a)

40

I've never been exit polled but if I am this year, I'm going to tell them I voted for Cynthia McKinney ... just to mess with their heads.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 11:57 AM (wzNME)

41

Hmmm... Some of us here have been saying this same thing for a loooooong time. Every time you listen to the news, ask yourself, "is this impartial, or are they pushing a hidden purpose?"

Do you think that the polls are broadcast far and wide to inform you? Or to influence you? The vast majority of what you hear on the tube and in print is leftard psy-ops, crafted to make you quit fighting. Marx would be so proud!

Posted by: Log Cabin at October 31, 2008 11:58 AM (S//h6)

42

We all must show up and vote, and encourage everyone else with us to do the same. The Eyeores (and yes, I count myself among them) have no right to carp next Wednesday and beyond if they don't.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at October 31, 2008 11:58 AM (ujg0T)

43 There's PLENTY of fight left at OUR campaign office!!!
http://tiny.cc/XfHic

Posted by: tree hugging sister at October 31, 2008 11:58 AM (RAqf7)

44 NYG,
good for him!

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 31, 2008 11:59 AM (e2mBS)

Posted by: tree hugging sister at October 31, 2008 11:59 AM (RAqf7)

46

another BTW.....ace rocks.....and I thank Hillary and all her livid supporters for bringing me over here for alot of fun, and very cool support (re:headlines) and mother may I sleep with treacher rocks too !!

did you all know Hillary and McCain had drinking nights together ?..... believe me---moving from Hillary to McCain was not such a major move.....crown royale to jamiesons...no prob.

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 11:59 AM (+/c0N)

47 Enough with the "polls were right in 2006" baloney.

Actually, they were wrong.  We got smashed, but the margins weren't what the polls -- particularly the polls a week or two out -- were predicting.

Geraghty makes this point repeatedly.  He's right.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:00 PM (zHoxL)

48 btw i've noticed it's been getting harder to find the pessimistic news

No, it hasn't been getting harder.  I've just been keeping more of it off the site lest I be accused by people like "someone" of not paying sufficient attention to anonymous posts on PUMA blogs.  Go read Nate Silver or Mark Blumenfeld for what the polls in aggregate really look like.  The race isn't over, but if Obama's now started buying ad time in Arizona, of all places, it's safe to say he's not too worried about swing states. But of course, I'm a traitor for saying so.

Incidentally, I'm not sure why being told that McCain is behind should be something that suppresses turnout rather than encourages it.  He needs every vote.  The further behind he falls, the more desperately he needs it. So turn out.

Posted by: Allah at October 31, 2008 12:00 PM (wsk0o)

49 Stand up and fight indeed! C'mon everyone - McCain is 72 years old, written off by just about every one, made fun off by just about every one on the left and their media trolls, yet there he is on his bus, relentless and still in great humor, talking to the folks. He has never given up on America and the American people, even in his darkest hours, he has not given up on us now, and we cannot give up on him.
Get out there and vote, get your friends and family to vote, McCain and this election is worth fighting for.

Posted by: IC at October 31, 2008 12:02 PM (jZNCU)

50

The Conservatives better learn some hard lessons from this crap. The Republican leadership has been too content to just let things slide, instead of mounting vigorous defenses of our positions. In the future even Congressional seat and every state legislature seat MUST be contested. NO FREE RIDES. As long as the guy has a pulse put him up. MAKE them defend themselves.

And we can confirm what Hillbuzz was saying about Obambi being in trouble in Iowa, because he had to make a fast trip out there. Don't buy the spin that it was a symbolic "return to the start" for Barry. Returning to the start would be going to Bill Ayers dining room. He's in trouble.

We're gonna win this thing. We got momentum. Pelosi isn't even going to get the big margins she thought she was. And when we win, we need to purge the governement of all these libs. Don't repeat Bush's greatest mistake of being "bi-partisan" and allow Clintonoids to stay in governement. Look what CIA, State and Justice did to him. Its no coincidence that the head of the Civil Rights division is a maximum doner to Obama and nothing is being done about voter fraud.

And while we're purging, Allah, Noonan, Kristol, Barnes, Buckley etc. all need to be disowned and ostrasized.

Obama is trying to ratchet down expectations cause he knows what we know, so just remeber, if Obama doesn't win by anything less than a total landslide and Pelosi doesn't get 400 seats, they've failed. Its what they've said themselves.

Posted by: Iblis at October 31, 2008 12:03 PM (yhBRO)

51

and now I only eat iceberg lettuce !!

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 12:03 PM (+/c0N)

52

If people wanted to read your pessimistic crap, Allah, they'd visit Hotair.  Give it a rest, will you?

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 12:03 PM (wzNME)

53 One other thing.  Have I misread Ace's many posts this month or doesn't he also believe that McCain's in dire jeopardy of losing at this point?  We should probably find that out now so we know if he's a traitor too.

Posted by: Allah at October 31, 2008 12:03 PM (wsk0o)

54

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 11:53 AM (004wR)

That really was Allahpundit (I recognize the hash which signifies his IP address) and I really think you'd benefit from studying my 2006 mid-term election story.

Regardless, I certainly want the GOP to win and Allahpundit does too. Just because he's one of those crazy people who believes when every single poll shows your candidate is behind he might be behind doesn't mean he doesn't support the cause of smaller government conservatism.

He does.

I'm not sure, but I think he's pro-life too. I think. I'd be interested in knowing for sure.

In any case, Allahpundit is ***NOT*** a moby any more than Ace was in 2006.

Or October 15, 2008, when I was one of the people (funky chicken was another) on this blog trying to convince him to continue the fight for McCain. Which he did, forcefully.

Being cautious ≠ moby.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:03 PM (hawOV)

55 Hey, Allah, since I'm kind of watching your back here in full forthrightness... can you help me with HotAir's password recovery process? I've tried it a dozen times over the past year and it flat out doesn't work.

If you're too busy now, after the election is fine.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:04 PM (hawOV)

56 Under your skin much, Allah?

Look, I feel for you, but the rift with your readers is one you've dug yourself.

And you're a fool not to understand the role of morale in a contest.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:05 PM (zHoxL)

57

Just a reminder to you guys:

POLLS LIE.

Just my opinion.

Posted by: katya at October 31, 2008 12:05 PM (G3frc)

58

Being cautious moby.

Cautious is one thing ... constantly looking for the dark cloud in each silver lining is another.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 12:05 PM (wzNME)

59 All of you are wrong about what constitutes a traitor.

Traitor = anyone who disagrees with me on anything.

That is all.

Posted by: Slublog at October 31, 2008 12:06 PM (R8+nJ)

60 Oh, and Redskins fans.

Posted by: Slublog at October 31, 2008 12:06 PM (R8+nJ)

61 You know who this helps? Mitt Romney

Posted by: Huge Hewitt at October 31, 2008 12:06 PM (gTZyc)

62 Well, here's the first ludicrous state claim.

http://tinyurl.com/63zsnf


Posted by: North Dallas Thirty at October 31, 2008 12:07 PM (E3Yxq)

63 I should mention that I'm glad this site has been one of the few big blogs where Eeyoreism hasn't gotten much of a foothold.

That's why I'm here.  Y'all cheer me up.   Everyone else is too busy counting their chickens before they come....home....to....roost.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 31, 2008 12:07 PM (yG+tb)

64 Do the Redskins actually have fans?

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 12:07 PM (wzNME)

65

Is this the "SarahP" who wrote something similar on HillBuzz the other day?

If you want further evidence of moby spamming, look the Stephanopolous article Drudge links to. Almost 100% of the comments are crying out in unison for Sarah Palin's medical records.

It would be laughable if it weren't so sad.

Posted by: Average Jen at October 31, 2008 12:07 PM (OINAg)

66 Bill O'Reilly is the biggest moby of them all. He is starting to bug me. I suspect he is working for BO.

Posted by: robtron12 at October 31, 2008 12:08 PM (gue+Q)

67 The real race is inside the MOE. Nate Silver is an extrarodinarily leftwing fool who should stick to baseball.

The real skew is nowhere near the poll average. You have an exceptional colinearity demonstrated here, with poll after poll making the same mistakes. That Axelrod is the genesis of these "mistakes," which are in fact a deliberate effort to encourage pollsters to skew their product, should surprise no one.

No one is staying home. Rasmussen reports 81 percent of voters rank this a "10" in terms of electoral importance. The big turnout for the liberals is capped. That's why, if Republicans show up, they win.

Also, I disagree that McCain is behind. The virtual race shows maybe a minus 2 or minus 1. But that race only exists in peoples' heads. The actual race starts at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday in New Hampshire. Until then, it's the top of the first and score is 0-0.

Posted by: Fresh Air at October 31, 2008 12:08 PM (SXkkC)

68 McCain is close in Iowa and New Mexico according to recent polls?
hmmm....

Posted by: Jay at October 31, 2008 12:08 PM (qddqX)

69


No, it hasn't been getting harder.  I've just been keeping more of it off the site lest I be accused by people like "someone" of not paying sufficient attention to anonymous posts on PUMA blogs.  Go read Nate Silver or Mark Blumenfeld for what the polls in aggregate really look like.  The race isn't over, but if Obama's now started buying ad time in Arizona, of all places, it's safe to say he's not too worried about swing states. But of course, I'm a traitor for saying so.

Incidentally, I'm not sure why being told that McCain is behind should be something that suppresses turnout rather than encourages it.  He needs every vote.  The further behind he falls, the more desperately he needs it. So turn out.

let me hit you w/some reality you pessimistic clown if you are who you say you are, the reason so many people can't stand you is because you couldn't take a shit w/o polls telling you to do so, again as this thread as shown you are nothing but a tool that falls for the axelrod tactics. polls have oversampled dems by ridicilous numbers yet clowns like you act as if polls (which had kerry,gore,clinton by more than he did win by,dukakis,and even freaking ford in 76 winning) must always be right. also thos PUMA blogs have been cures for the bs and idioticy u post. you aren't a traitor bud, you;re annoying and thus i have just explained to you why so many can;'t stand you.

got it? good , take on a poll on that eeyore

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:09 PM (004wR)

70 Lessee, Obama's first election to State Senator, he got all the other candidates kicked off the ballot for 'signature irregularities'; his election to US Senator, his first opponents' divorce records are unsealed at the demand of the LA Times (owned by the Chicago Tribune Co.) and the Repubs have to slot in Alan Keyes, who doesn't even live in llinois at the time. This is the first time he's faced any coherent opposition; the press is in the tank for him, he's blown through $600 million + of funny money, and he's polling even within the margin of error with a 72 year old Republican the week before the election. This guy trucks his game in on a damn Tonka Toy. He's not that good, just dirty.

Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at October 31, 2008 12:10 PM (ERJIu)

71

Bill O'Reilly is the biggest moby of them all

Haven't watched him in months.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 12:10 PM (wzNME)

72 Do the Redskins actually have fans?

Good point.  They have people who live in the general area and cheer for them.

That's good enough for me.

Posted by: Slublog at October 31, 2008 12:11 PM (R8+nJ)

73 53 One other thing.  Have I misread Ace's many posts this month or doesn't he also believe that McCain's in dire jeopardy of losing at this point?  We should probably find that out now so we know if he's a traitor too.

Posted by: Allah at October 31, 2008 12:03 PM (wsk0o)

Eh, this is not the Allah who he pretends to be. 

Posted by: Editor at October 31, 2008 12:11 PM (GTpOW)

74

I still say:

McCain landslide.

Posted by: john at October 31, 2008 12:11 PM (bblmr)

75 Sorry, Allahpundit, did not mean to imply you are touched by the crazies! I just was not sure where you were headed with some of your postings. I am easily confused that way.

Posted by: IC at October 31, 2008 12:12 PM (jZNCU)

76

Two points: First, look at Hillbuzz's number two about safe states going to Obama. Now remember this week about how close the polls were in Montana and ARIZONA! (McCain's home state)

It doesn't take a brick wall falling on you to see how that connects.

Second. I don't know if this is a form of GOP astroturfing or just a pep rally or what. But if it is, it's about 10 times more sophisticated than Axelrod ops, including the quality of the writing.

 

Posted by: Ampontan at October 31, 2008 12:12 PM (EGq3Z)

77

Note that it confirms what everyone on the Right not dumb enough to be a journalist already knows, which is that Joe the Plumber (and Tito the Builder) are major positives for us.

Hear that, Roger Simon? That's the Obama campaign exposing you as a fraud and possible Axelturfer.

Posted by: David Ross at October 31, 2008 12:12 PM (GwV+j)

78 Where can I donate towards GOTV efforts?

Posted by: Jay at October 31, 2008 12:13 PM (qddqX)

79

One thing I think it's important to get out is that republicans shouldn't give any creedence to the news they hear about the election and who's winning.  The MSM pulled this crap on 2004 by calling Florida before the polls even closed.  Even if folks hear that all the key states are lost to McCain and Obama's won, if the polls haven't closed you should still vote.  No telling if the info your getting is accurate, no matter how high the volume is cranked.

I don't feel I've got a horse in this race, but I hate seeing the process rigged.  Vote like the wind!

Posted by: Cautiously Pessimistic at October 31, 2008 12:13 PM (ltwze)

80

Posted by: katya at October 31, 2008 12:05 PM (G3frc)

The absolute number (percentage) of a poll is often useless, but the trend line is helpful. In both Rasmussen and Gallup's daily tracking poll, Obama has picked up 1-2 points/day for 2 days straight.

Other polls show different trends. The truth is, the electorate doesn't know what to do and it's in a state of flux. Obama probably IS ahead a bit now. He MIGHT be wasting more votes in big states that he'll win by large margins as A.J. Strata says. I DON'T KNOW.

What I do know is he's a megalomaniac. I believe he has the capacity to be a dangerous American president. I flat out believe that. I wish I didn't.

I believe you and your allies should dig deep, get out the vote, and stop hatin' on Allahpundit because as a paid political analyst and blogger, he gives his honest opinion.

He'll be casting a vote for McCain-Palin. I'm certain of it.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:13 PM (hawOV)

81 As a concerned Christian conservative, I have doubts about this story, as much as I'd like to believe it.  I just think we're fucking doomed.

Yours,
CCC

Posted by: I make > $140,000 at October 31, 2008 11:35 AM (5aa4z)

Bend over.....We got a Flaming Douche for ya.

Posted by: Old Hippie Vet at October 31, 2008 12:14 PM (dzE9C)

82 God bless whoever runs that Hillbuzz site.  I've sent it to my crazy mother several times. 

Whoever they are, they are working their ass off for McCain (more likely against Obama).

GO PUMAs

Posted by: Hedgehog at October 31, 2008 12:15 PM (aDOKh)

83

If people wanted to read your pessimistic crap, Allah, they'd visit Hotair.  Give it a rest, will you?

And just who the fuck are you again?

Most of us do visit hotair in addition to AoS.  Hell, a good portion of Ace's links come from HA.  McCain is behind by a significant amount.  It's not "pessimistic crap" to say so.  That might change, but the news right now is bad.

If you want to live in a world where McCain is winning, hangovers don't exist, that stripper you've been tipping really does like you and everything is just goshdarned great, I suggest you start stocking up on illicit drugs. 

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2008 12:15 PM (rf03a)

84

He'll be casting a vote for McCain-Palin. I'm certain of it.

Not bloody likely, I'll wager.

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 12:16 PM (wzNME)

85 Listen, I don't want to make this a bash-Allah fest, but he's come over here.

The thing you seem not to get, O Moon God, is...

You don't run a fucking wire service or investment newsletter.  You run a community.  People take social cues from you, and if they don't like them, they're going to be pissed.  How you say things is as important as what you say.

Standing on your doom-and-gloom with a self-righteous "well, I've got my objectivity!" is a debate argument, not a community management technique.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:16 PM (zHoxL)

86

Under your skin much, Allah?

Look, I feel for you, but the rift with your readers is one you've dug yourself.

And you're a fool not to understand the role of morale in a contest.

amen to that. look guys i dont doubt allah wants the GOP to win and he will be voting for McCain ( i think hehe) but he's crossed the line making evrything all about how it's over for republicans and democrats always win and all that crap. this next comment pretty much shows why allah has gotten the label "pessimistic clown" from me:

Cautious is one thing ... constantly looking for the dark cloud in each silver lining is another.

now, don't be offended by the clown label allah, i call everyone (even my own mom) a clown at one point. my point is you're annoying and that's why so many have come out against you.

Bill O'Reilly is the biggest moby of them all. He is starting to bug me. I suspect he is working for BO.

he's like allah, he teakes the polls as 100% truth and sucks up to BO hoping to get more interviews (read Sarah P comment)

McCain is close in Iowa and New Mexico according to recent polls?
hmmm....

careful now, allah's head might explode w/ news like that hehe

 

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:16 PM (004wR)

87 PUMAS are a force to be reckoned with and no one is reporting it.

Ain't that the truth. These voters are one of the biggest stories of the campaign, and they're virtually ignored.

My gut tells me that McCain is ahead.  All the lefties I know are very nervous. The shine has come of Uhhbama and they know it.  If enough people figure out this guy is a paper tiger, then it will have a significant effect.  It's true that people want to go with a winner.

I keep thinking back to when Uhhbama first arrived on the national scene and my father said to me, "That guy's nothing but a media creation."

He put his finger on it immediately.  Hopefully enough people are catching on.

Posted by: Warden at October 31, 2008 12:16 PM (KXbGD)

88 Christoph - Thanks for the link, see, that's how I like my political analysis, cut with a hearty dose of beefcake and/or cheesecake.  Sometimes it's fab to be me.

If Murtha loses I will do a victory dance.  Add in that I'm in PA10 and right next to PA11 and it could be a good night indeed for picking up some seats.

I'm not too sure that Hackett will pull it off, but I'm fairly sure that Barletta is going to win. 

Posted by: alexthechick at October 31, 2008 12:16 PM (SHHaV)

89 I'm cautious to not be over optimistic, but I'm telling you all, with everything that is going on (the media, Obama picking his cabinet and raising money for the transition, and the polls tightening), the Obatrons are going to die of shock come Tuesday.

The reason the Ohio Democrat machine is doing everything in their power to throw Ohio to Obama is because they know that Ohio would be a landslide victory for McCain without all of the fraud (with the fraud, the Obama loss will at least look respectable).

Pennsylvania is close (closer than Bush was to Kerry in 2004 at this time) and McCain is already winning Florida.  Colorado is dead even in terms of democrat/republican ballots cast so far and now even New Hampshire and Iowa are in play. 

I said this on HotAir, but whenever Obama's team does something like raise money for the transition team or pick the cabinet, it doesn't scare me one bit.  In fact to me it shows panic and desperation because they have to put up a front to make it look like everything is going great when there is tons of evidence pointing to the exact opposite (i.e. the polls tightening across the board).

Posted by: A.J. at October 31, 2008 12:17 PM (fC7B3)

90 Jeezle Pete, people, what's with the Allah hate?  I don't always agree with his analysis either, but if any of you dipshits are actually HAPPY with the polls then you're fucking batshit insane.

AP just calls 'em like he sees 'em.  A lot of you are calling 'em like you wish them to be.  Is it still winnable?  Absolutely.  How winnable?  Ask me Wednesday.  That's why we have elections and not just 4000 polls using different methodologies all aggregated at RCP to pick our President.

Posted by: Her Morgenholz at October 31, 2008 12:17 PM (5aa4z)

91

And just who the fuck are you again?

And who the hell are you?

Posted by: Fernandozer at October 31, 2008 12:17 PM (wzNME)

92 Thank you for this post!!

Yes, this is exactly how Obummer and Axelrasputin roll...

in particular at the very end South Dakota springs to mind for me,

 AP reporter Nedra crotchshot Pickler (so named by me after he giggling get out of the waaay to the Secret Service agent when Obummer flashed jeans, ugh sickning) ran a story that Hillary was withdrawing, in the monring when the polls were just opening

ALL the Obummer News Networks ran with the piece, Terry McCaullifee came out saying no it's not true, please go vote.. It was awful, we ALSO had issues where states we were calling into had phone line and internet connecxtivity trouble suddenly, like PA....yeah the telecos all support Obummer and his telecom immunity and in fact spoonsored the EGOfest in Denver.,....

Hillary STILL won SD

the point is IT DIDNT WORK on the DEM BASE, and it WONT WORK on the American people at large

the cabal of pricks had to break our party charter and our roolz to give away 4 of Hills dels to steal it, but the psyops DID work very well on the Superdelegates

great thing about the GE is there are none

so if we GOTV and ignore the morons on the TV, MAC/PALIN have this in the bag

no amount of money or media asskissing can make up for the American people and our pragmatism and our rejecxiton of socialism, GOTV :0

W00T
and
BOOYAH!

PS RUSH now talking about we angry DEM women :0)

Posted by: ginaswo at October 31, 2008 12:17 PM (hBvl2)

93 And Rush hits the RedState article.

Posted by: Editor at October 31, 2008 12:18 PM (GTpOW)

94 Under your skin much, Allah?

Look, I feel for you, but the rift with your readers is one you've dug yourself.

Dug myself how?  By suggesting that the polls look grim and that maybe not every word out of Palin's mouth has been pure spun gold?  Again, if Ace disagrees with me on either of those points, let him jump in here and say so.  We really need to find out which traitors should be disowned and ostracized, don't you think?

And there's no rift with the readers.  There's a rift with a small number of readers who know things look bad and want scapegoats available in case Obama wins.  One of them accused me -- and Michelle, incredibly -- just the other day of having a "financial motive" in seeing Obama win.  Rest assured, if The One pulls it out, they'll be laying the blame squarely at my feet on Tuesday night.  Along with ACORN and all the pollsters who cooked the data to suppress GOP turnout, which would have produced a 60/40 McCain landslide if not for their dastardly deeds.

Posted by: Allah at October 31, 2008 12:18 PM (wsk0o)

95 O'Reilly is out for O'Reilly. He loves it when both sides say he is an a-hole. He thinks it shows he is a moderate. It shows he is an a-hole.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 31, 2008 12:18 PM (e2mBS)

96

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:04 PM (hawOV)

Email me at erik -at- hotair dot com - I'll help ya out.....

Posted by: erik at October 31, 2008 12:18 PM (6gb97)

97 "McCain is behind by a significant amount.  It's not "pessimistic crap" to say so."

No he's not, and yes it is.

The race is MOE.  Shit, Barry's pollster actually agreed with the famous recent piece by McCain's pollster.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:19 PM (zHoxL)

98 Well, I voted for Sarah and my country with my mail-in ballot today. That's good.

I did not vote for my fucking asshole RINO senator Gordon "Hey I'm just like a Democrat, only with better hair" Smith. Maybe that's not so good.

That fucking asshole Smith ran campaign ads on TV bashing president Bush and associating himself with prominent congressional Democrats. That made me mad. What a disloyal cocksucker. Plus, his Democrat opponent gleefully pointed out in his TV ads that the fucking asshole Smith voted with Bush 90% of the time, anyway. So who is kidding whom?

So I threw a litle temper tantrum and voted for the Constitution Party candidate. He doesn't have a snowball's chance in hell of winning. Yes, I know the election calculus that the fucking asshole Smith is trying to work with here. yes, I know he's trying to get votes as a Republican in a blue state. So maybe I should have just sucked it up and voted for the fucking asshole RINO Gordon "GOP? Me?" Smith.

But I couldn't. So if the Democrats get their veto-proof majority in the Senate, it will be partially my fault. Sorry.

Posted by: OregonMuse at October 31, 2008 12:19 PM (FO+YO)

99

Most of us do visit hotair in addition to AoS.  Hell, a good portion of Ace's links come from HA.  McCain is behind by a significant amount.  It's not "pessimistic crap" to say so.  That might change, but the news right now is bad.

If you want to live in a world where McCain is winning, hangovers don't exist, that stripper you've been tipping really does like you and everything is just goshdarned great, I suggest you start stocking up on illicit drugs. 

a significant amount, being down on the rcp average by 6 all because of a poll that makes you think obama's up by more than 10 and all that w/polls overstating dem samples in a crzy year where people are lying to pollsters? thanks for showing yourself to be a nice little axelturfer

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:19 PM (004wR)

100

"The race isn't over, but if Obama's now started buying ad time in Arizona, of all places, it's safe to say he's not too worried about swing states."

He's got the money to burn to make people think that, doesn't he? Ever heard of psyops?

As someone else pointed out, Obama's in Iowa this week. Why should he worry about that ?

And why were McCain/Palin there this week too? (Either or both, I forget.)

 

Posted by: Ampontan at October 31, 2008 12:19 PM (EGq3Z)

101 "Jeezle Pete, people, what's with the Allah hate?  I don't always agree with his analysis either, but if any of you dipshits are actually HAPPY with the polls then you're fucking batshit insane."

Hear ye, hear ye.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:19 PM (hawOV)

102 "And there's no rift with the readers."

Uh huh.  Shouldn't this be at everythingisawesome?

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:20 PM (zHoxL)

103 Thanks, Eric, I'll send it with the subject CHRISTOPH PASSWORD RECOVERY in a few minutes.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:21 PM (hawOV)

104

And there's no rift with the readers.  There's a rift with a small number of readers who know things look bad and want scapegoats available in case Obama wins.  One of them accused me -- and Michelle, incredibly -- just the other day of having a "financial motive" in seeing Obama win.  Rest assured, if The One pulls it out, they'll be laying the blame squarely at my feet on Tuesday night.  Along with ACORN and all the pollsters who cooked the data to suppress GOP turnout, which would have produced a 60/40 McCain landslide if not for their dastardly deeds.

no rift w/ readers? what a poll tell you that? you're scarmbling to defend yourself on this thread and have been lately. so no rift? yeah and my rays won the world series (they didn't)

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:21 PM (004wR)

105 DJ Drummond  destroys Polling http://tinyurl.com/5utkmj

Posted by: PaRep at October 31, 2008 12:22 PM (dWdDN)

106 Obama is putting money into states like Arizona precisely BECAUSE he is worried about the swing states; he's already bought up all the airtime he can possibly manage, and this is a bit of head-faking to discourage Republicans from going to the polls.

Posted by: North Dallas Thirty at October 31, 2008 12:22 PM (E3Yxq)

107 I tend to believe this one and the Sarah P from yesterday.

Why?

Whereas Obama is pushing the "bandwagon" and "inevitability" effect (Inaugural speech, Grant Park post-election celebration, and staged and timed leaking of future cabinet members, the Obama transition team, etc), these leaks are counter intuitive.

In short, there is no discernible advantage to Obama by leaking these details.
 

Posted by: Michelle's American White Racist at October 31, 2008 12:23 PM (NLtVk)

108

Meh, I'm going to call it fake but accurate.  Much of that is probably true to a degree (or at least what I believe is true), but some of us here could have written that without any true insider information.

Posted by: Randy R at October 31, 2008 12:24 PM (A9g/U)

109 "AP just calls 'em like he sees 'em.  A lot of you are calling 'em like you wish them to be."

Enough with this bullshit impugning of our motives.

Being more pessimistic doesn't make one more objective.  Allah sees defeat in everything; this being politics, he'll be "right" about half the time.

The guy wouldn't even believe we had a lead when the polls showed a big McCain advantage...  So, shock!  He doesn't now.

Both Ace and Allah saw doom in 2004.  Again, not evidence of the current state, but it shows the baseline reaction.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:24 PM (zHoxL)

110

The Allah hate here is getting a little stupid.  As long as I have been reading him he has always had the same style.  Call it what you want, morose, gloomy, dark, whatever.  But it's not like he just woke up to this attitude this election cycle.

I find his stuff interesting even if I don't always agree with him.  If you don't then try not reading his stuff.  Accussing him of bad faith is pretty asinine.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 31, 2008 12:24 PM (VW9/y)

111

Jeezle Pete, people, what's with the Allah hate?  I don't always agree with his analysis either, but if any of you dipshits are actually HAPPY with the polls then you're fucking batshit insane."

we dont hate allah, we just find his constant pessimism and living his life by historically skewed and wrong polls annoying as hell.

look at the guy sittiong here defeding himself yet he claims there's no rift w/ his readers. then the guy follows w/ the scapegoat comment, sounds like a despreate claim. the guy has no balls to do interviews, people come to HA to read Ed's great blogs, and he's constantly made fun of for his pessimism. again we don't hate him, we just find him annoying

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:24 PM (004wR)

112 Rush Limbaugh just talked about this, but he also brought up something about an Obama insider who stated that Obama's internals are showing very bad results for Obama in key states, is that part of this story, tried clicking the link but got nothing, if it is different, did anyone hear where Rush got that story from on the poll numbers?

Posted by: War69DotCom at October 31, 2008 12:25 PM (rxX8B)

113

Incidentally, I'm not sure why being told that McCain is behind should be something that suppresses turnout rather than encourages it.  He needs every vote.  The further behind he falls, the more desperately he needs it. So turn out.

 

Rush just made the same point. 

Funny to me how when the polls show an Obama lead, they're crap, but if it tightens they're credible.  It's almost as if pollsters aren't concerned about their credibility year round.

Just an observation.  I'm a moron.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at October 31, 2008 12:25 PM (eiOZw)

114 I'm a little worried about this guy.  Am I next?

Posted by: Pope Benedict XVI at October 31, 2008 12:26 PM (AHrTm)

115

Allah may be pessimistic, but he's no traitor. 

He can't be linked with the NRO chardonnay and brie crowd, because unlike them, he actually likes Sarah Palin.  And he is not deluding himself, a la Christopher Buckley and Colin Powell, that Obama will be anything but a statist. 

Where Allah has criticized McCain it has been for areas where McCain has been wrong, such as immigration and "bipartisanship."  I don't fault Allah for this. 

McCain is an admittedly frustrating candidate, but he's our candidate, and our only hope right now.  There's only one person in this campaign who hasn't been demoralized and pessimistic at some point.  And that guy is exactly who it should be -- John McCain.  McCain believes he can win this thing.  If there's another indefatigable voice it's Sarah Palin.  McCain may well lose this election, but he's fighting.  I'm with Krauthammer in this -- better to go down fighting than to lose one's bearings. 

I am scared for my country, but I am also very motivated.  All of the glowing Obama media and even internal Republican pessimism will have one net effect -- to guarantee 100% Republican turnout.  Even if we lose, we go down fighting. 

Allah's 100% on our side, guys.  Don't doubt it. 

 

Posted by: PalinFan at October 31, 2008 12:26 PM (s4mrA)

116 craig d henry: He uses such information as he has according to his best judgment; he issues his orders and does his level best to carry them out without much reference to what is going on about him...."

Sounds a bit like McCain, to me, too.

Posted by: Jazz at October 31, 2008 12:26 PM (hnq5i)

117 78. Jay

I know MAC/Palin has a compliance fund taking donations, maybe the local campaign office near you can use some coffee or carpool help...

likely to handle the atty fees for the challenges to come after we win

I expect OH NC Indiana to be challenged and we will need good lawyers :0)

Posted by: ginaswo at October 31, 2008 12:27 PM (hBvl2)

118 Axelrod could be equal to a thousand Roves and BHO's opponents still would have problems because many are apathetic, many are paper tigers, and many don't do things the right way.

For instance, the plan at my name's link to go ask BHO to call for the release of the Khalidi tape hasn't exactly set the world on fire. Yet, if enough bloggers told their readers to go ask him, eventually someone would be able to do it. Depending on the respone that would have a huge impact. Yet, it's not being pushed by anyone else that I can see.

Another thing that would be effective would be to highlight BHO's creepy indoctrination plan for pre-teens. That was mentioned at LGF but then everyone moved on, when highlighting how that plan is wrong could cost him the election.

Posted by: The plan at October 31, 2008 12:27 PM (/JlcN)

119 Here's why I think McCain's ahead.

1. Almost no conservative voters are going to cross over to McCain.
2. The base is angry and energized. The Palin pick has converted a lot of stay-at-homers.
3. We'll get a significant number of PUMA voters.
4. The Bradley effect.

So where's Uhhbama's advantage?  The youth and voter fraud. That's it. it.  And we all know how that youth vote worked out for Kerry.  So, basically he has voter fraud. It's a concern, but I don't think it's going to be enough.


Posted by: Warden at October 31, 2008 12:27 PM (KXbGD)

120 Standing on your doom-and-gloom with a self-righteous "well, I've got my objectivity!" is a debate argument, not a community management technique.

It's not about objectivity, it's about simple reality.  In no way am I objective.  I'm biased to the right; never would I claim to be otherwise.  But when all the data points in one direction, I'm inclined to believe it's true.  We've got two possibilities here: Either the various national polls showing Obama up by roughly five points are detecting a genuine trend, OR virtually every last one of them's been skewed by some unknown variable -- either inaccurate responses among the people surveyed or some sort of shadowy conspiracy by the pollsters themselves to produce a skewed result.  Which is likelier?  It's certainly likely that any single poll is in error (which is why I didn't link the NYT one from last night showing Obama by 11), but when they're all pointing the same way?  You don't have to be "objective" to draw a conclusion about the reality of that situation.

Anyway, I've hijacked your thread, for which I apologize.  Going back to work now.

Posted by: Allah at October 31, 2008 12:27 PM (wsk0o)

121 Allah,

I happen to think you are an honest critic. But we are not taking sugar pills here. The MSM has downloaded the inevitability mantra on us every day. Then I read your stuff that basically backs it up.

Knowing the truth right now is like holding your finger up in the air. But I can't figure out the huge difference in polls without some manipulations going on. The media desires Obama's win like Rather wanted the Bush National Guard story to be true.

We are attempting to see through the fog. You are telling us the fog is thick. Ace, is attempting to do recon for us. I appreciate that.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 31, 2008 12:28 PM (e2mBS)

122

I find his stuff interesting even if I don't always agree with him.  If you don't then try not reading his stuff.  Accussing him of bad faith is pretty asinine.

i read his stuff, i find it annoying to do so, but i don't judge what i don't know about

Both Ace and Allah saw doom in 2004.  Again, not evidence of the current state, but it shows the baseline reaction.

good point but ace doesn't come off as annoying w/ the rated r threads and the funnies, allah just comes off like that annoying brother who's on your side all the time but makes dealing w/his mouth hard

 

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:28 PM (004wR)

123 war69:  it's probably the same piece I linked up top.  Click it.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:28 PM (zHoxL)

124
1. Almost no conservative voters are going to cross over to McCain Obama

Duh.

Posted by: Warden at October 31, 2008 12:29 PM (KXbGD)

125 Off topic, but the first story is already out there saying that Louisiana is too close to call for Obambi...

wwltv.com has it as 43%-40% McCain, and that's just simply absurd. It's just not the case.

Don't believe the hype, folks...

tmi3rd

Posted by: tmi3rd at October 31, 2008 12:30 PM (BCrQZ)

126

I'm not getting through on that link.  Is it just me?

Posted by: Jack Murtha at October 31, 2008 12:30 PM (KISSL)

127 I can see where some folks might become demoralized by the constant droning of the MSM and pollsters, but I'm not one of those people. Polls are historically incorrect without the MSM and pollsters being in the tank as much as they have been during this election cycle. Obammy has had a huge advantage with the MSM and campaign contributions but he's been unable to convert those advantages into a certain win. He's finished, the shine is long gone and all that's left is a political hack from Chicago and his angry wife. I will enjoy Obama's upcoming defeat.

Posted by: CR at October 31, 2008 12:30 PM (Ow4Af)

128 "It's almost as if pollsters aren't concerned about their credibility year round."

The ones who are paid by campaigns are.  That's why we always hear about leaked internals from both sides...  And why we rarely ever get them.

The public ones?  No one remembers what they said except for on the very last pre-election poll.  Hell, no one knows if they were really right or wrong before that.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:32 PM (zHoxL)

129

Anyway, I've hijacked your thread, for which I apologize.  Going back to work now.

godd riddance, be annoying on hotair not here

Allah's 100% on our side, guys.  Don't doubt it. 

we don't, we'd just like his "sky is falling" crap to tone down a bit. an obama sex tape could come out, hurt obama bad, and he'd still find a way to spin it as a negative for mccain

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:32 PM (004wR)

130

a significant amount, being down on the rcp average by 6 all because of a poll that makes you think obama's up by more than 10 and all that w/polls overstating dem samples in a crzy year where people are lying to pollsters? thanks for showing yourself to be a nice little axelturfer

Right- I've been commenting here and on HA for years all in preparation for this very opportunity to astroturf for Obama... by noting that the odds are against McCain.

Being +/- 2 points in various polls?  Not significant.  When every single poll has Obama in the lead and has had him in the lead for the past month with the election only half a week away?  Significant.

The race isn't over.  Hopefully the prospect of an Obama presidency will scare up enough votes for McCain to overcome the odds.  However, a handful of disgruntled PUMAs and hyper-optimistic bloggers don't make a damned bit of difference in changing those odds- odds that aren't terribly good.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2008 12:32 PM (rf03a)

131 Here is the original article by Wendy Button:
http://tinyurl.com/6nv7l5

Posted by: JimK at October 31, 2008 12:32 PM (1xOJr)

132 Sorry guys, the piece was probably Rushlanched.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:32 PM (zHoxL)

133 Allah has a duty to report both sides of the story...Just because he presents some realities to our situation doesn't make him a traitor but rather a realist.

Posted by: Jay at October 31, 2008 12:32 PM (qddqX)

134 "linked up top"

"LUN"

"Who's who?"

If you still don't think their needs to be a more accountable version of Free Rebublic you might be crazy.

The right web needs organization like Amy Winehouse needs rehab.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 12:33 PM (AHrTm)

135

Off topic, but the first story is already out there saying that Louisiana is too close to call for Obambi...

wwltv.com has it as 43%-40% McCain, and that's just simply absurd. It's just not the case.

Don't believe the hype, folks...

last post on this thread for now: bud, why you have to give allah news to post on hotair and crow about?

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:34 PM (004wR)

136 "And there's no rift with the readers."

Uh huh.  Shouldn't this be at everythingisawesome?

No, because like I say: A few readers are grouchy about it but the vast majority aren't.  If they were, surely we'd see some reflection of that either in terms of traffic, with people skipping my posts, or "Fire Allahpundit!" e-mails.  We haven't.  And as always when I get in these fights with people, I invite critics to e-mail Michelle and try to get me canned if you feel that strongly about it.

And now I really do have to get back to work.

Posted by: Allah at October 31, 2008 12:34 PM (wsk0o)

137 Got to love the Eeyore dead-enders.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:34 PM (zHoxL)

138

Allah has a duty to report both sides of the story...Just because he presents some realities to our situation doesn't make him a traitor but rather a realist.

yes so it's realist that mccain is gonna lose montana? give me a break

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:35 PM (004wR)

139

Right- I've been commenting here and on HA for years all in preparation for this very opportunity to astroturf for Obama... by noting that the odds are against McCain.

I've always suspected this.  YOU DIRTY TRAITOR COMMIE BASTICH!

Posted by: JackStraw at October 31, 2008 12:35 PM (VW9/y)

140 "Where Allah has criticized McCain it has been for areas where McCain has been wrong, such as immigration and "bipartisanship."  I don't fault Allah for this. McCain is an admittedly frustrating candidate"

Thanks, PalinFan, for your emotionally balanced comment. I wish there weren't so many shoot the messenger comments... to the guy who called 2006 bang on.

Anyway. Moving on to the content of your comment...

According to Ed Morrissey (not Allahpundit) at Hot Air, 4 days from the fucking vote of his life and perhaps his country's life, John McCain releases an ad on Global Warming, for God sakes, that shows Obama and McCain basically on the same fucking side. An ad that Ed Morrissey called "sheer folly" at this stage.

So perhaps Allahpundit has a point at times re: McCain.

I admire McCain, but that doesn't mean he can't be a little dense once in a while. You dig it?

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:36 PM (hawOV)

141

I think all obama is trying to do is not look like DUKAKIS on the electoral map.....he's obviously very good a hustling money from his vapid supporters and he wants to keep that going---and so when he loses---he knows he has to lose with some dignity....(EVEN THOUGHT ITS GOING TO BE A TOTAL BLOWOUT !!)

like I said, Hillary supporters have memories stretched back back back.....don't need to watch old youtube clips to remember the primary.......

obama got 99 problems and this bitch is the bomb ! woohoo !

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 12:36 PM (+/c0N)

142 Hey, why are shooting at each other. Knock this off. We are 4 days away. Focus on Obama and not litmus tests for our own.

Posted by: locus ceruleus at October 31, 2008 12:36 PM (e2mBS)

143 Bush lied us into war (2004)
We were not greeted as liberators (2004)
Bush's military service was fraudulent and was worthless next to Kerry's (2004)
Climate change has passed the point of no return (2006)
The war is "lost" (2007)
Bush and deregulation are responsible for the credit crisis (200
The rightwing blogosphere needs to retool (200
McCain cannot make up the gap, and is forced to defend otherwise red states (200


Same old shit.

McCain by 3% in the popular vote.




Posted by: vinman at October 31, 2008 12:36 PM (idc+/)

144 We're right wingers.  We don't run from polling data.  Er, we stand up and fight.  Or something like that.

Honestly, the pessimism subsides just by talking to Obama supporters.  They really don't want to vote for the guy so if you convince them to stay home that's a win.  If you convince them to vote for McCain it's two wins.

Get to the choppa!  Go.  Now.  Call two friends.  They'll call two friends.  And someone will call Jim Downey.  And Downey will write a sketch.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 12:37 PM (AHrTm)

145

I live in Iowa and the Chosen One is here now speaking - and it begs the question, WHY? Acording to all the polls Obama has a double digit lead here - why waste a half a day ina  state you're susposed to win easily?

Also, found this elsewhere about crowds for Palin vs. Joe the Idiot.

It all started around 2 p.m. at Lycoming College's Lamade Gymnasium on Mulberry Street. Several hundred people packed the gym for a opportunity to show their support for the Obama - Biden ticket.

As Biden was speaking at Lycoming College, Republicans were filing into Bowman Field, just a few miles away. That's where Alaska Governor Sarah Palin will speak at about 7 p.m.

At least 10,000 tickets have been given out to see the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Posted by: Murph at October 31, 2008 12:37 PM (Dw2sU)

146 How can anyone trust these poll numbers?  If you talked to 3 Democrats for every 1 Republican voter you're numbers would be skewed and you could show that McCain was losing.  The polls showed Dewey would beat Truman.  Such faith was put into those numbers to the extent that newspapers printed such headlines the night before the paper was to be delivered; history showed us otherwise.  There has not been any election where your vote is going to count.  They will not take my vote for McCain from me in this election until they pry it from my dead cold fingers or the electoral college validates its results.  Do your part to make the difference. 

Posted by: Coogen at October 31, 2008 12:38 PM (h4UWR)

147

And now I really do have to get back to work.

like i say, keep on defending yourself all the time and blame it on grouchy readers" way to keep people reading clown. this is one poll you want to deny, people are annoyed w/ ur constant pessimism, brushing it off as "grouchy readers" just makes you feel better so you can lies to yourself, but you just keep digging that rift and we'll keep laughing at you

ps: now i'm really leaving, caught allah's stupid comment and had to respond, again allah glad you're w/ us on our side but like olberdouche said to bush sometimes you just have to SHUT.THE.HELL.UP

Posted by: YRM at October 31, 2008 12:38 PM (004wR)

148 Allah, I share the pessimistic outlook on polls. I think it's even worse than the polls reveal.
( That won't stop me crawling on my knees over broken glass to vote against Obama, and I guess in Virginia it matters for once. ).

I don't need cheerleading to stay in the game. Not my nature.

Posted by: SarahW at October 31, 2008 12:40 PM (7sl9X)

149 Watch Obama's speeches rigth now.  It is the same speech over and over.

"I'm going to lay broadband lines to rural parts."

This dude is 5 years behind the curve.  Wireless bitches!

The business world is building space elevators and Barack Obama wants to put monkeys in orbit.

This guy is weak.  His supporters just need a few minutes of talking to turn them.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 12:40 PM (AHrTm)

150 Why does he have to "shut up". What reasonable person would let likely outcome affect his choice to vote or hide in the closet on election day?

Posted by: SarahW at October 31, 2008 12:41 PM (7sl9X)

151

I've always suspected this.  YOU DIRTY TRAITOR COMMIE BASTICH!

And I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling kids drunken chronic masturbators.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2008 12:42 PM (rf03a)

152 "What reasonable person would let likely outcome affect his choice to vote or hide in the closet on election day?"

What are you, an economist?

"Reasonable" or not, people do it.  Period.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:43 PM (zHoxL)

153 If you can't vote against Obambi because you think the cheater is going to win, there is something wrong with you.

Posted by: SarahW at October 31, 2008 12:44 PM (7sl9X)

154 <i>4 days from the fucking vote of his life and perhaps his country's life, John McCain releases an ad on Global Warming</i>

Look at it this way - if you are one who believes AGW is complete and utter bullshit are you a likely Obama supporter?  Probably not.  And is this bit of nonsense going to turn you off so bad that you either don't vote or vote for Obama?  Again, probably not.

No, this type of ad is run late for the very reason that it is targeted at undecided/clueless squishes, i.e. the very same reason Obama ran his informercial when he did.  

Posted by: ThomasD at October 31, 2008 12:44 PM (21H5U)

155

I love Allah, and I've been following him longer than most. I don't questyion his loyalty (yet).This is what we call an intervention. And a conservative re-education camp is an extended stay poolside on a tropical isle with a case of Monte Cristos, free flowing Jamesons, and scantily clad dusky native girls.

 

So just put down that Noonan tea step and away from the cheese board. Or else.

Posted by: Iblis at October 31, 2008 12:45 PM (yhBRO)

156 "If you can't vote against Obambi because you think the cheater is going to win, there is something wrong with you."

If you deny well-documented features of human nature because it justifies your counterproductive expressions of negativity, there's something wrong with you.

Naah, there's nothing "wrong with you" -- self-justification is human nature.  But you're still wrong.

Live in the actual world, not the one populated by emotionless, morale-free homo economicus.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:46 PM (zHoxL)

157

He'll be casting a vote for McCain-Palin. I'm certain of it.

Not bloody likely, I'll wager.

Oh puhleeze. Yes, Allah will vote straight Republican, okay? Being bummed out does not mean he won't vote.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at October 31, 2008 12:47 PM (ujg0T)

158

At least 10,000 tickets have been given out to see the Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. murph...

times that by another 10,000 !!

that there is the whole country !!....the far left liberal that shat on us Hillary supporters are sweatin to the oldies....!!.........smelly commies!

 

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 12:47 PM (+/c0N)

159 Well, i have to say that i do like Allah's posts over at Hotair, he inadvertently posts some good stuff.
    Dislikes: Fools that keep throwing Barry a line!

Posted by: Ron. at October 31, 2008 12:47 PM (vzDFw)

160

And I would've gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling kids drunken chronic masturbators.

It's not chronic, I can quit whenever I want.

I just don't want to.

Posted by: JackStraw at October 31, 2008 12:47 PM (VW9/y)

161

Posted by: ThomasD at October 31, 2008 12:44 PM (21H5U)

Hopefully. Ed Morrissey wasn't convinced any more than I am. He thought it painted Obama as reasonable so it's counterproductive.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:48 PM (hawOV)

162 Look, the marginal decision on this blog isn't between voting and not voting:  it's between GOTV and not GOTV, donating and not donating.

But for the less politically committed -- which is much of the country -- yeah, there are a lot of squishes who won't turn out for one side or the other if they think it doesn't matter.

One hopes Barry's "inevitability" technique (and remember how well that worked for Hillary?) backfires and keeps his own kiddies home.

As for us, the whole point of these posts is to remind people to commit and GOTV.  This is stuff that gives our choice a multiplier effect.  Get out there and do it.  Look at Malor's post below on internet phone banking.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:49 PM (zHoxL)

163 In particular Allahpundit who was almost exactly right. I think he's one of the smartest political analysts I've ever seen.-Christoph

Yeah, he's handed me a few crow sandwiches.

On the other hand, there's nobody more fun to celebrate with when caviar sandwiches are served!


Posted by: Mongerel at October 31, 2008 12:50 PM (AgYgV)

164 (last comment for SarahW btw)

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 12:50 PM (zHoxL)

165

I blogged about this over on Red State this morning.  My name there is *Sassygirl*  Also, *Queen of Cups*  writes about it.

Rush is talking about *Prarie Fire* right now. 

Go McPalin, Go!

Posted by: small town girl at October 31, 2008 12:51 PM (CFcAU)

166 "As for us, the whole point of these posts is to remind people to commit and GOTV."

Which you can't do by portraying the race as in the bag for McCain, which you haven't done, but some other people have. Which astonishes me.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:51 PM (hawOV)

167 I gots emotions.

But I don't need false cheer to vote either.

Vacuum the front hall, yes. Voting is a real duty no matter what polls say, and you might as well evaluate why they say what they say, because it can only help your cause.


Posted by: SarahW at October 31, 2008 12:53 PM (7sl9X)

168 everytime i go to hotair i once again wonder why the fuck i did that..i don't read the new york times for a reason...i think most of the responders overthere are mobys... i feel dirty just reading the shit..it is the worst black pr

Posted by: big D at October 31, 2008 12:54 PM (g8UDU)

169 I phone banked. I didn't mention any polls.

Posted by: SarahW at October 31, 2008 12:55 PM (7sl9X)

170

Eh.  I'm a naturally gloomy person anyway, so I'm presuming Black Narcissus is going to win.  Not that it'll stop me from doing the GOTV phone banks this weekend, though; every little bit helps.

(though not here in Massachusetts - Obama could blow a dead donkey in front of Faneuil Hall tomorrow and he'd still carry this hellhole).

But remembering the early calls for Florida gives me a thought.  We know the MSM is going to push Obama's victory as inevitable, with "early results" and "exit polls" and everything else.  We know that hurt us in 2000.  So I wonder - if the lying media shits start calling states early, will that depress our side?  Or will we be pissed off enough to say "fuck you, you lying Obambi whores, I'm still voting!"  I hope the latter, but who knows?

Posted by: Christopher at October 31, 2008 12:57 PM (SjUPQ)

171

I should mention that I'm glad this site has been one of the few big blogs where Eeyoreism hasn't gotten much of a foothold.

It's one reason I started visiting this site more often.

Posted by: thirteen28 at October 31, 2008 12:59 PM (s8N54)

172 "if the lying media shits start calling states early, will that depress our side?"

Yes, it will, which is why someone's post makes sense, even though his irrational hatred of people like yourself or Allah or myself who say McCain just could be behind right now... due to the fact every poll says he is... make no sense.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 12:59 PM (hawOV)

173 The real problem with Allah is that he is too thin skinned. Grow some gumballs.

Posted by: jcp at October 31, 2008 01:05 PM (DHNp4)

174

baby wipes clean EVERYTHING !!

and McCain/Palin is gonna wipe that barky out of the electoral map !!!!!

the stinky commies that ruined our dnc party to go with bamboozling barky is gonna get themselves SPANKED !!

Hillary dems for McCain ---> cause we don't want no stinky commie !

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 01:07 PM (+/c0N)

175

Lay off of Allah.  I don't agree with him on everything but we don't need to go on a witchhunt for heretics.  Leave that for the leftists.

And McCain has been just as bad a candidate as most of us thought he'd be.  If he hadn't picked Sarah Palin he'd be toast right now.  She's the one that's kept him in the game.

Posted by: Randy R at October 31, 2008 01:08 PM (A9g/U)

176 I just watched an Obama speech on Fox, and he said he didn't want to raise taxes on capital gains. Isn't raising cap gains taxes a big part of his tax plan? Is he lying, or what?

Also, every time he says he will end this war (Iraq) and get on with the REAL fight against terrorism, I become furious. He never praises the troops for what they've accomplished there. I try to evaluate from a neutral standpoint, but he is just evil.

Posted by: stace at October 31, 2008 01:09 PM (JO0c/)

177 There's a reason that people don't e-mail Michelle to get you canned Allah.  It's because nobody really pays attention to you in terms of what you say after you put up one of your doom and gloom posts.

I'm the one that always calls you a moron on HotAir (under MobileVideoEngineer) and after that I don't even bother posting or even reading what else goes on in that thread because I realize it's just a stupid post.  So that's why I haven't e-mailed anyone to say that you should be canned because I never see the responses because after posts like that, I really don't care what you have to say.

Posted by: A.J. at October 31, 2008 01:09 PM (fC7B3)

178 I heard on Boortz today that polls are showing a 20 pt swing in McCains favor in the under 45 Demographic. 45 to 65 not much change. 65+ up 7 points for Obama.

Posted by: Postal_Worker at October 31, 2008 01:10 PM (mcFb3)

179 McCain is going to win Virginia. Ten thousand people will stand out in the rain all morning just to catch a glimpse of Sarah Palin. You can't get a thousand people to fill up a nice, comfortable conference center to see Joe Biden even if there's punch and pie.

Posted by: Brewdog at October 31, 2008 01:13 PM (jg+Fr)

180 Question: When does Barack Obama say he does his best work?

Answer: When he loses a campaign.[Source: Audacity of Hope, Obama: From Promise to Power]

Help Barack do his best work.  Make some calls.  Change some minds.  You can do it.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 01:13 PM (AHrTm)

181

Interesting read at American Thinker titled " Notes From a Battleground State"

 

I could not get the link to post.  My apologies.

Posted by: oldfart at October 31, 2008 01:15 PM (L8y/X)

182

Another media meme that needs to be addressed is this idea that Sarah Palin is "dragging down" the Republican ticket. What they can't say is that Joe Biden adds nothing whatsoever to the Dem ticket and he only serves to highlight that Barry is the one who screwed up by not picking Hillary.

Posted by: Brewdog at October 31, 2008 01:16 PM (jg+Fr)

183 As long as I have been reading him he has always had the same style.  Call it what you want, morose, gloomy, dark, whatever.  But it's not like he just woke up to this attitude this election cycle.

The word you're looking for is "cynical".  He is a seriously cynical fucker.  If you clowns would have read the original "Allahpundit" blog, you'd understand better.

And, someone, I didn't impugn anyone's motives, as I didn't ascribe any motives to anyone.  Want my prediction what's going to happen Tuesday?  I have no fucking idea.  That's my prognostication.  How's that for objective?  Now, impugn my motives for being objective.  Jeesh.

Posted by: Her Morgenholz at October 31, 2008 01:16 PM (5aa4z)

184 I just watched an Obama speech on Fox, and he said he didn't want to raise taxes on capital gains. Isn't raising cap gains taxes a big part of his tax plan? Is he lying, or what?

Obama promises to lower capital gains taxes for small businesses.  He will raise capital gains taxes for everyone else.

How does he define a 'small business'?

The answer is buried with Hoffa.

Also, every time he says he will end this war (Iraq) and get on with the REAL fight against terrorism, I become furious.

He won't end the war.  He says himself he will leave 50,000 troops in Iraq.  He won't end the funding for the war.  You can use this information to persuade anti-war Obama supporters.  Make them waver and you merely have to tap them for them to fall over.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 01:19 PM (AHrTm)

185 "Want my prediction what's going to happen Tuesday?  I have no fucking idea."

Neither do I -- neither does Allah.  Nor anyone else.

But you want my prediction on what's going to happen until the polls close on Tuesday?

I -- and many of us -- are going to work our asses off against Barry without a twinge of defeatism slowing us down.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 01:19 PM (zHoxL)

186 I think it worth mentioning the hype effect b/c many voters DO allow their perception of it being 'over' to color their thinking

some people like to be on the 'winning' side and jump that way

there is a reason they stopped releasing exit polls while polls were open, it was found to have impact on voters behavior, some stayed home, some switched sides

there's a reason we call people, sheeple after all

I cant speak for the GOP side :0), but it affected some hard DEM votes, the primary voters

on the other hand, consider we had 36 MILLION Dems come out for our primaries; the more Obummer was pushed on us, the more Hillraisers started coming to the polls

I am hoping for that effect now in the GE also, but I do think its worth a mention to Eeyorish people when we come acorss them, so they realize they are doing the work of the opposition for them when they spread despair..

and a little cheerleading never hurt anyone, thus we have cheerleaders

now let's go kick some liberal ass!

LOL LOL I am a liberal or was until I saw what the neo libs looked like, HA!

Anyway my Marine Gad, God Bless, would have appreciated it

MAC/PALIN 08
Hillary 12

PS There are millions of PUMAS (to the commenter who thinks we are a disgruntled handful, and it is that kind of dismissive comment by our own party that fires us up, W00T!)

Posted by: ginaswo at October 31, 2008 01:20 PM (hBvl2)

187

Hey, Leave Allah alone for Christs sake! If it wasn't for some of the stuff he posts I wouldn't have a reason to drink.

I got your back Allah.

Posted by: Old Hippie Vet at October 31, 2008 01:20 PM (dzE9C)

188 Her Morgenholz, you're on the side of reason. Expect loneliness, but occasional moments of brotherhood (and sisterhood) and joy.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 01:21 PM (hawOV)

189

Yes, it will, which is why someone's post makes sense, even though his irrational hatred of people like yourself or Allah or myself who say McCain just could be behind right now... due to the fact every poll says he is... make no sense.

People don't hate you Christoph because you have to matter before you can become hated.

Posted by: polynikes at October 31, 2008 01:21 PM (m2CN7)

190 The word you're looking for is "cynical".  He is a seriously cynical fucker.  If you clowns would have read the original "Allahpundit" blog, you'd understand better.

Yep.  Don't expect Allah to be an optimistic cheerleader on all fronts.  On some, he will be a leader in strategic attack mode and be very good at it.  But he will never pretend he can be this way on every issue.  You shouldn't expect him to be.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 01:22 PM (AHrTm)

191 Here's a McCain ad I hadn't seen that I'd like to see get more exposure. It's included in a blog on the Houston Chronicle website, and the blog probably will drive you nuts (feel free to register and comment), but the ad itself is priceless.

http://www.chron.com/commons/ and pick "Four More Days." The full url was too long and triggered the comment filter.

Posted by: Texan99 at October 31, 2008 01:23 PM (bzYZw)

192 I cant speak for the GOP side :0), but it affected some hard DEM votes, the primary voters

GOP doesn't have a caucus system where the megaphone effect does have a big impact.  I won't say GOP voters cannot be swayed with some cheerleading.  Then can.  It's just a different kind of strategy that is necessary when one walks into a polling booth where it's them, the ballot, their conscience and no one else.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 01:26 PM (AHrTm)

193

Obama's been running ads heavily in TX the whole time.  He's buying ads in AZ to freak out people like allahpundit who thinks it means something.  Obama's run ads nonstop in AL, where the polls have McCain up by 20.

The guy has unlimited access to George Soros and Richard Branson's bank accounts, so he can run tons of TV ads in places where it won't do any good as psyops.  Hey, it's good for the stations in those red states to get the huge infusion of Obama/Soros/Bransondollars.

Obama has ads on the Laura Ingraham and Tammy Bruce radio shows here in Las Vegas, for God's sake.  He ain't picking up voters there, let me tell you.  But I'm glad he's keeping Tammy Bruce on the air here with his sponsorship.

Tammy's been the most stalwart radio host for McCain this whole season....she's the original PUMA and still has the PUMA fire.

Posted by: funky chicken at October 31, 2008 01:27 PM (xyyHG)

194 "I -- and many of us -- are going to work our asses off against Barry without a twinge of defeatism slowing us down."

someone, did you grow up with Normal Vincent Peale or something? The Power of Positive Thinking?

You need to get a little more Donald Trump in your veins:

"It's been said that I believe in the power of positive thinking. In fact, I believe in the power of negative thinking. I happen to be very conservative in business. I always go into the deal anticipating the worst. If you plan for the worst -- if you can live with the worst -- the good will always take care of itself."

(It's a real quote. I knew to Google it because I remember it from his book, The Art of the Deal. Newsflash: Trump still somehow manages to get things done motivating himself and others, doesn't he?)

Or some genuine military experience where I assure you, they don't train you to have Pollyanna thoughts running around your mushy brain. A firm strong set of values, a martial ethos, and utter realism.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 01:28 PM (hawOV)

195 Here's a hook you can use if you GOTV this weekend.

Curt Schilling, the baseball player, told Hannity and Colmes the biggest reason why he was supporting John McCain was because, and I quote.

"When nobody was looking.  When nobody was around.  John McCain did the right thing."

Schilling was talking about McCain's honor in upholding the first in, first out rule for prisioners of war.

Why McCain hasn't cut this ad is a mystery.  It's good.  It's real.  It's genuine.  It tells you what every American should want to know.  When my President is in that room with other leader(s) he will do the right thing.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 01:31 PM (AHrTm)

196 I've been registered at HotAir for years, but I rarely go there anymore.  And not because of Allah, but because I can't stand the know-it-all posters there, the ones who think that if John McCain would only listen to them, he'd be pushing 90% in all the polls, and his failure to take their advice is a failure of courage or honor.  I'm a former Marine, and attacking McCain's honor or courage is over the line for me.  There's plenty to criticize--I say this as a Fred Thompson man--but not his honor, and certainly not his courage.

Posted by: HoldMyMount at October 31, 2008 01:31 PM (0KoXp)

197 Patriot Room has a piece on the puma factor :0)

http://patriotroom.com/?p=3614

And there you have it. The PUMAs are not some little fringe group of angry women. They are at least 14% of the electorate, but more importantly, they, as undecideds, are the ones who will decide the election. Some think they will nearly all break for McCain. Maybe Obama should have treated his Sweeties a little better when he had the chance.

Posted by: ginaswo at October 31, 2008 01:33 PM (hBvl2)

198 And there's no rift with the readers. There's a rift with a small number of readers who know things look bad and want scapegoats available in case Obama wins. One of them accused me -- and Michelle, incredibly -- just the other day of having a "financial motive" in seeing Obama win. Rest assured, if The One pulls it out, they'll be laying the blame squarely at my feet on Tuesday night.

Allah, you give yourself too much credit. While you may be a top conservative site, "laying the blame squarely at [your] feet"? That's a betrayal of an over-inflated ego. But, for the record, I think McCain will win.

As far as no rift in your community.....what community? it's been closed to new subscribers for ages, so there are no new voices. I read the HA comments about your pessimism and, in similar Obamanaic fashion, other HA commenters tell those people criticizing you to shut up. Incidentally, I usually skip over your posts because you tend to be more subjective and pessimistic, than Ed. Sorry, but it's how I see things.

It's your body of work that is irritating. You see the glass half-empty, not half-full. And as "someone" said above, you affect morale in the HA community. Those of us who cannot comment come over here to AoS, where it isn't CLOSED OFF, and join the conversation, and there's more diversity and openness. Perhaps if your registration was open to more people, you'd hear from PUMAs who are on the ground and inside the campaigns hearing and seeing something different than the MSM narrative.

And this isn't "hate." Since when is dissent and disagreement "hate"? That happens at DKos and HuffPo, not here.

Posted by: sas at October 31, 2008 01:36 PM (HoB7g)

199

I think the best thing for McCain at this time is to be trailing but by only a few points.  Kind of like in a football game late in the 4th quarter. 

If your team is down by 2 scores, some fans are going to start leaving early (won't show up to vote) because they assume the game is over, even though it is not.

If your team is up by 2 scores, some fans will leave early (won't show up to vote) because they think it is in the bag.  Even more fans will lose their intensity and start talking about other things instead bringing the noise.

If your team is trailing by less than 1 score the crowd gets fired up and often helps propel  their team to victory (gets out to vote and encourages others to get out to vote for their candidate).

So vote and get your McCain supporting friends to vote.  It is the only thing you can do.

For you Barr supporters and concience voters, think about this:  You have one bullet(vote) in your gun.  Choose your target wisely and make that shot count.

Posted by: Lemmiwinks at October 31, 2008 01:37 PM (E6GUg)

200 Allah says, "The race isn't over, but if Obama's now started buying ad time in Arizona, of all places, it's safe to say he's not too worried about swing states. But of course, I'm a traitor for saying so."

No, i'd say you're unwilling to recognize the fact that Obama has more money than God and he can afford to spend some of it on psyops.

Posted by: steve poling at October 31, 2008 01:41 PM (UWHTf)

201 Obama ads in AZ and TX are head fakes. They're trying to supress voter turnout for Republicans. It's a mind game. See through it. GOTV! Vote and get others to vote. Phone bank. They're running scared.

btw-HillBuzz consists of all DUDES! They aren't "babes." haha

Posted by: sas at October 31, 2008 01:42 PM (HoB7g)

202 How do we know AZ and TX ads are head fakes? Why is Obama stopping in Iowa on Monday--the day before the election. Yes, that Iowa that is a "secure" Obama win. They're giving away their hand. Don't fall for it. Turn off the TV and Get out the vote!

Posted by: sas at October 31, 2008 01:45 PM (HoB7g)

203 alexthechick would disagree, sas.

Posted by: Christoph at October 31, 2008 01:45 PM (hawOV)

204 But the PUMAs agree with you sas.

Posted by: Iblis at October 31, 2008 01:57 PM (yhBRO)

205

Obama's been running ads heavily in TX the whole time.  He's buying ads in AZ to freak out people like allahpundit who thinks it means something.  Obama's run ads nonstop in AL, where the polls have McCain up by 20.

The guy has unlimited access to George Soros and Richard Branson's bank accounts, so he can run tons of TV ads in places where it won't do any good as psyops.  Hey, it's good for the stations in those red states to get the huge infusion of Obama/Soros/Bransondollars.

That's a bit contradictory- he's buying ads in TX and AZ to freak out people like AP, but also has money to burn.  Why not spend it there?  A person can only watch so many ads without tuning them out.

I suspect he's buying these ads for a few reasons- yes, in part to send the message that he's so strong that he's competing even in these states.  However, there's also congressional races to consider; those who won't vote for Obama but still see him favorably may be more likely to vote Dem in other races- essentially he's spreading the wealth around.

It also may have the intention of forcing McCain to spend advertising money in these states to counter the Obama ads, even if he's very likely to win there anyways.  No one likes to be snubbed, and watching Obama ads without a presence from McCain might have an effect.

Finally, there's simple arrogance- a trait Obama isn't short on.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 31, 2008 02:00 PM (rf03a)

206 Wait--why is Obama spending his day in Iowa?

Posted by: funky chicken at October 31, 2008 02:01 PM (xyyHG)

207

That's a bit contradictory- he's buying ads in TX and AZ to freak out people like AP, but also has money to burn.

No, he's throwing money away in TX, AZ, and AL because he has unlimited access to illegal campaign funds.  The money means nothing to him, so he pisses it away with abandon, AND to freak out weaklings like allahpundit.

Posted by: funky chicken at October 31, 2008 02:04 PM (xyyHG)

208 I think there was something to the original post. obama has problems in his base. The democratic party is made up of various factions whose only common goal is power. Kerry in 2004 didn't lose any of those factions. Obama on the other hand has the following faction problems compared to Kerry:

1. The KKK wing of the democratic party - they are very quiet - not out in the open like they were in early 1900's but they haven't gone away. For obvious reasons Obama has problems here.
2. The feminist wing - the democratic campaign's treatment of Hillary and Sarah Palin has not gone unnoticed. The fact that the PUMA name exists tells you something - who comes up with an acronym for something which doesn't exist?
3. Jews - Obama's links to Farrakhan and other Muslim ties don't play well with this group compared to Kerry.
4. Working class voters - Joe the Plumber - enough said.
5. Immigrants - recognize a socialist agenda and what that stands for.
6. Unions - more problems with Joe the Plumber.

This leaves only the following factions for Obama's actual base:
A. The Hollywood Elite.
B. The Chattering class.
C. The University profs.
D. The Gullible young.
E. Blacks.
F. Clueless Wild eyed Moonbats.

(I put the Kos Kids and DUmmies in groups D and F.)

Obama's problems with the six groups I listed as problem areas in the Democratic party are of importance in varying degrees - but they all exist and drain core votes away from him - a few percentage points can make a big difference in the election.

Now let us talk about the elephant in the room, the one nobody has talked about. The single largest voting block in the United States is: Christian Conservatives. When they turn out no liberal Democrat can ever win. And here is why the polls in 1972, 1980 and 1984 were way off: Christian Conservatives are very private people who don't like talking to public snoops - as a result they are seriously under sampled in the polls. They sat out the 2006 election and were meh in 2000 and 2004. I simply find it hard to believe that they are going to sit this one out and let someone to the left of Bill Ayers win.

Posted by: Veteran330 at October 31, 2008 02:10 PM (ylhEn)

209 No shit, cut the Allah bashing.  He's wrong, but not disloyal to whatever "cause" it is we all share (anybody got that summed up in a sentence yet?).

What he is wrong about is the fact that ALL demographic internals assume 2 INCORRECT things (yes, Allah, including Fox):

(1) Democrat gains in the primaries (largely as a result of operation chaos) have resulted in a party split approaching 8-10 points.

(2) The sample reflects a proper proportion (i.e. one group is not hanging up at a greater rate)

Neither one of these assumptions bear out.

Allah's wrong, he's a pessimist, we hate the morale beating, but he COULD be right and he's no dummy.

I can see how the constant inquisition could get under his skin, so I won't tell him to chill

Posted by: moronizer at October 31, 2008 02:16 PM (p1s9n)

210

moronizer, nope, sorry.  He has a huge platform and he uses it to bash the only candidate that can keep Obama from becomming my husband's Commander in Chief.

I have no tolerance for somebody who sits on his ass in his comfortable apartment trying to hire that bastard to be my husband's boss....my husband is in the sandbox, fighting for you and for all these other "conservatives" who want to wave the "we support the troops" banner....while supporting Obama

outrage is an appropriate response

Posted by: funky chicken at October 31, 2008 02:22 PM (xyyHG)

211 funky, you just misunderstand.  He's not pulling for Obama.  Unless Allah has played one of the longest false flag games in history, he's not traitorous.

He's always been like this, and he's just not comfortable with the current appearance of the race.  I think he's way wrong, and that Mac sails to a 290-249 win

It's only anecdotal, but living in a blue state, I've already heard of several regular Dems who never voted R who voted for McCain.

BOs support is a mile wida and an inch deep.  Since BO's been pushing this "in the bag" line, a lot of Dems will feel comfortable voting for Mac.

We'll see.

But in any event, unless Allah actually ENDORSES Obama, vent your spleen toward the real traitors like Noonan and Parker.

Posted by: moronizer at October 31, 2008 02:34 PM (p1s9n)

212 Calls for McCain to just give up and quit?

Don't we have National Review for that?

Posted by: richard mcenroe at October 31, 2008 02:47 PM (ScoG3)

213 Bill O'Reilly is the biggest moby of them all. He is starting to bug me. I suspect he is working for BO.

I can explain O'Reilly's stance on Obama and McCain very simply.

Obama gave O'Reilly an interview.  McCain hasn't.

It's that simple.

Last night, Bill was going on about how "McCain hasn't run a good campaign.  Obama's run a much better campaign."  This puzzled me, as he offered no evidence to support that position.  And then he started complaining about how McCain won't come on the Factor.

I think this and this alone explains why O'Reilly's treating Obama with kid gloves.

Posted by: tsj017 at October 31, 2008 03:00 PM (hSSc2)

214 "whether this is real or hoax, we damn well need to act like it's true"

Yes, Ace, at long last, you've finally discovered Teh One Real Truth That Only Teh Most Worthy Of All Adepts Ever Glimpse!

So just keep banging those gongs & lighting those firecrackers, & surely in the NEXT election, the demons of reality & causality will join the archdevil History in fleeing for their malevolent lives!

EXCELSIOR!

Posted by: jim at October 31, 2008 03:25 PM (9j4NO)

215 Absolutely, the polls are crap, and we have are being subjected to a massive disinformation campaign, a psy-ops campaign really to demoralize and discourage us. But the good news is that we can turn this to our advantage! Not only are we going to win politically on Tuesday, but if we make the right moves we can win financially and well - and big! Today McCain is at 16.5 on Intrade. That means when he wins, they will be paying more than 5 to 1!! I just put $20k on McCain, and it will be sooooo sweet when I get both an Obama flame-out and $100K as a bonus. I STRONGLY urge everyone else get over to Intrade and but McCain futures. The rewards will be tremendous. WE WILL WIN!!!

Posted by: Larb Neur at October 31, 2008 03:26 PM (lx7WR)

216 of course I meant "buy McCain futures" above.

Posted by: Larb Neur at October 31, 2008 03:28 PM (lx7WR)

217 Posted by: PalinFan at October 31, 2008 12:26 PM (s4mrA)

+1

Posted by: Redhead Infidel at October 31, 2008 03:50 PM (zlHbc)

218 Larb, how'd you get $20K to intrade?

Posted by: moronizer at October 31, 2008 03:50 PM (p1s9n)

219 "The only way he wins is over a dispirited, disorganized, and demobilized opposition."

Well, thank you so much, Mr. McCain and Ms. Palin, for arranging that for us.

Posted by: Green Eagle at October 31, 2008 03:50 PM (b1Cxy)

220 I suspect he's buying these ads for a few reasons- yes, in part to send the message that he's so strong that he's competing even in these states.  However, there's also congressional races to consider; those who won't vote for Obama but still see him favorably may be more likely to vote Dem in other races- essentially he's spreading the wealth around.

Two thoughts.  Yes, there are races in TX and AZ where Democrats are putting up surprising numbers.  Obama can spend money here to try and boost turnout for him, knowing he will still lose the state, as a way of pushing more potential voters for Democratic candidates for Congress.  Shadegg is in a race.

The other thought is that TX and AZ are both predominantly red states.  The makeup of the Congressional delegation is important when these states start their next redistricting battle.  This is the subject that really has GOPers freaked out about Obama that few people are willing to go on the record to talk about.

Posted by: Gabriel Sutherland at October 31, 2008 04:06 PM (AHrTm)

221 "Today McCain is at 16.5 on Intrade."

Problem is, it takes a while to get money into the system.  I wish I had $100 bucks there now, but even if I wire it today, it won't get there until too late.

If Intrade took PayPal, life would be much simpler.

Posted by: someone at October 31, 2008 04:10 PM (zHoxL)

222 If Intrade took PayPal, life would be much simpler.

They take credit and debit cards.  I use a debit card to one of my credit union accounts to move money there.

Posted by: toby928: Caesarist at October 31, 2008 04:30 PM (PD1tk)

223 moronizer, i bought in three separate trades over three days. actually i got a better rate, because McCain has been gaining daily on Intrade. My first buy was at a little above 13. Which brings me to another point : with McCain rising, the time to buy is NOW!

They take Visa and debit cards.

http://www.intrade.com

Posted by: Larb Neur at October 31, 2008 04:43 PM (lx7WR)

224 www.redstate.com appears to be unavailable right now. DoS?

Google cache for the page works some of the time, but not always. Perhaps not all of their servers have the data yet. Seems odd, though.

Anyway, here's a forum with a copy of the text:

http://tinyurl.com/6hxstd

Posted by: Matthew King at October 31, 2008 05:28 PM (AdSJx)

225

Who knows if the commentor in the post is for real or not. But it's impossible not to see the truth in the tactics explained. Any of us visiting the blogs, and paying attn to the just out right ridiculous polls, instinctively know this to be true.

Hey - nygal - "I know more families like us, past dems, registered dems, voting McCain...NEVER SURRENDER, NEVER FORGET ---those early voting dems are people like our family !"

Posted by: nygal at October 31, 2008 11:49 AM

May I say - Good on ya'! ?  Oh, and re:  your spouse in your other comment - 2 of my family's most dear friends (and also pastors at my church) are interracial, also. So welcome again!

Posted by: freetofly at October 31, 2008 05:53 PM (hr/2V)

226 Although I've seen these guys, I seriously doubt their effectiveness. Seems like it just gets them mocked and ignored. Nobody takes Youtube comments seriously, even if they see them.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 31, 2008 06:30 PM (0+Ggj)

227 I think this and this alone explains why O'Reilly's treating Obama with kid gloves.

Access
is the game O'Reilly is playing.  He thinks his audience is too stupid to figure it out.  But then, O'Reilly has always looked down at them.

Posted by: ThomasD at October 31, 2008 07:33 PM (21H5U)

228

No joke.

Zogby has McCain ahead of Obama now.

The tide is turning.  It is now simply a voter turnout issue.  Repubs. simply need to go vote and it's won.

People, especially independents and undecideds, are beginning to understand more about Obama and how he is lowering his tax floor down to $120k, the Reverend Wright adds are showing up, Palin is rocking the house, Men are going back to McCain.  Obama is starting to shoe some signs of insecurity by going back to IA, etc.

Get out and vote, and we win.  It's now a simple voter turnout issue. 

Posted by: Sapwolf at November 01, 2008 12:18 AM (8c/wM)

229 We still might not have this in the bag, but it will a much closer race than any of us are expecting.  This is going to be a tough fight, and the only thing that will destroy us now is allowing the illuminati propaganda to get to us and bring our spirits down; a dispirited army has never won a war.

Posted by: RJ at November 01, 2008 01:56 AM (KRl3v)

230

I invite critics to e-mail Michelle and try to get me canned if you feel that strongly about it.= TWAT


 

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Our Lunch with David "Glengarry Glen Ross" Mamet
The House of Love: Paul Krugman
A Michael Moore Mystery (TM)
The Dowd-O-Matic!
Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat