So what does it mean when I say "I'm voting for steve_in_hb?" 

Am I tainted?

So what does it mean when I say "I'm voting for steve_in_hb?" 

Am I tainted?

Must... resist... temptation to make "taint" jokes...

The other effect is one I heard from a relative last week:

"They have my phone number - they can find out who I am - I'm not going to tell them how I really feel!"

But what can they do when 80% of their calling staff walks in through the door with exactly that same taint?

(with apologies to #3):

80% of the polling staff shares exactly one taint? Good God, Barack IS the Son of God!!

I'd be curious to poll McCain supporters to find out what percentage DO NOT show public support (signs, bumperstickers, buttons, etc.) because they feel being labeled as racist.  Many likely keep their vote secret to avoid the social stigma.

I suspect the numbers are higher than we would guess.  The reason I say that is because locally I see 2-1 yard signs supporting Obama over McCain in a very red county.  Somebody should run that poll.

But really...there are no undecided voters anymore. With all the getting in the faces from the Obots, when a person asks for whom you are voting, there are only three acceptable answers right now:

1. Obama, of course. I am neither a dullard nor a racist, you know.

2. I haven't decided yet. (but I will vote for McCain and I don't want you getting in my face and judging me.)

3. McCain/Palin. Fuck off.

Amusing piece at HillBuzz on crushing your inner Eeyore.

I tried browing the HillBuzz site last night for a while. They are just completely trolled out in some pieces. Interesting reads though.

Commenters, please indulge me:

How many of you decline publicly supporting McCain becasuse you feel being seen as un-supporting of Obama?

The other effect is one I heard from a relative last week:

"They have my phone number - they can find out who I am - I'm not going to tell them how I really feel!"

Actually I have the same feeling whenever I get a human poller call even though there's probably little they can do to harm me if they don't like my answers. But there's always that chance given the connectedness of databases plus people (especially young punks) can be vindictive and petty. I don't lie but I do shade the intensity of my feelings. Why take a chance on getting a crazy poller?

How many of you decline publicly supporting McCain becasuse you feel being seen as un-supporting of Obama?

Lots of Obama bumper stickers around my neighborhood. Huge University Student population in this area. I don't have a problem answering truthfully when asked whom I am voting for. Its McCain / Palin and if they get uppity about it, they're gonna be wondering what just happened after waking up on the ground in a few minutes

Everything affects the answer.   Many people are not going to answer truthfully.  They are affected by their desire to not look (or sound) like a crud.  They are affected by feeling intimidated by the pollster or the question, desiring no confrontation.  They are affected by the slanted questions given by the pollster, etc.

Whether intentional or not, polls are not reliable.  They are not truthful.  They ...

dare I say it?

Lie?

I don’t put up signs in my yard and I don’t put bumper stickers on my car or truck. The reason being is that they are an invitation for mischief by the “other side” who appear to be very prone to that mischief.

I just read a news article about some guy in OH who had his yard signs vandalized and decided to take action. When the next time occurred he fores several shots at the “teens” in a car escaping. He wounded one of them in the arm with the .22 he was using and he will now likely go to jail for a long time.

Living in the middle of a deep blue sea requires choosing your battles carefully.

I concur.  I don't mind talking to my immediate neighbors, but no need to invite trouble from the dipshits that are out there.

Some douchebag in Indiana just put up an Obama mannequin being hung.

Get ready for wall to wall coverage from the MSM........

How many of you decline publicly supporting McCain becasuse you feel being seen as un-supporting of Obama?

Look, I work in a state office in NM.  We got pictures of 'Uncle Bill' all over the place.  And not just any pictures, we've got those ones with the eyes that move!  I'm still trying to figure out how they overlooked my voter registration card. 

Some douchebag in Indiana just put up an Obama mannequin being hung.

Get ready for wall to wall coverage from the MSM........

Hopefully, McCain will condemn it quickly. 

I suggest commenter registration

Townhall has had registration for years and it is virtually overrun with trolls now. They have tried to ban a few people but it is fairly easy to get around the ban protocols. What is funny is they do have a filter that prohibits racial and vulgar language. The problem is that they only ban for hard core flame wars and really offensive posts. At the point they are now, there are as many trolls as there normal conservative posters.

The registration does make people sort of keep to one name and you can learn who the trolls are and just scroll by them. The problem is that you have so many to scroll by it gets to the point that it is not worth the effort.

Bottom line is that commenter registration will help in some ways but it is easily defeated and it makes other things difficult.

Hilarious new video on Drudge...check out the "Obama late to meetings" link

Conservatives are afraid to talk openly because they assume EVERYONE is liberal

Liberals love to talk openly because they assume EVERYONE is liberal

The DJ is down 100+ and ABC News is ecstatic.

It was up 250 pts at 2:40 CDT

Blow me. They were funnier than yours.

No, they weren't.  Didn't even approach humor.

Knock it off.

Hey # 44 - You might be surprised who the scruffy college kid dong the exit poll voted for in the election.  My 21 year old son is a scruffy-college-kid exit poller and he voted for McCain.

Here's one simple example: When a pollster is asking if someone is a likely voter, and if they've voted in three of the past three elections, etc., in which way do you imagine people tend to lie?

Towards claiming they're reliable, conscientious voters, of course. That's the socially desirable answer. Only a smaller number of people, such as steve_in_hb, are honest enough to state the true socially undesirable answer.

Back when I was pulling data for pollsters, you didn't ask people if they were likely voters, you checked their voting record. (That's not kept by the State of California, but we kept the information for the past elections.) Voter history was the key element used in deciding who to contact for most campaigns: You don't waste your resources on someone who's never voted in a municipal election if you're running in a municipal election.

For the General, you'd pull people who had voted 3/4, 4/4, 7/8 of the past 2/4-year elections. You might or might not pull new registrants. Usually the under 25 crowd was treated separately, or not at all.

I don't know how that relates to national polling, but that's how it's done in California.

Consider it my life's work Katie.  Amend your ways.

Promise.  That shit is unwelcome.

Although, if you'd like to become the laughable asshole that spammed the site, I'd let that speak for itself.

savvy?

#47.  The answer is that it depends on the context.  I live in West Hollywood, near the Palin effigy.  I have no problem telling people I'm Republican; in fact the reactions are amusing.   At work I try to avoid it because I'm in a largely Black neighborhood.  Lots of Obama buttons and bumper stickers. (Anecdotally, I'm seeing far fewer of those this time around.in West Hollywood. In  2004 we were awash in Kerry/Edwards stickers and signs.  There is one Obama bumper sticker in my building's garage.)  It's all kind of interesting.  As an aside, I told my boyfriend a couple of weeks ago that if Obama isn't up by 10 points this weekend, he'll lose.  So, we'll see.

Gimme a mouthful of that and a side of taint and I'll die happy.

Good gravy, how complicated...thanks, I never realized all this part... I just knew they were screwy.

Thanks for all that you do here, Ace! You are a "gentleman and a scholar" but, don't worry, I won't tell! tell!

I live in Virginia and have been polled twice in the last two weeks.

One was an automated poll that asked simple questions such as: Who are you voting for? What is your political affiliation? Are you pro-life? No ambiguity there.

The other was a live person, who asked a few questions about the general election, but it was mostly about the local election for mayor. The questions were like: Do you agree with candidate X that our schools should be heated during the harsh Virginia winter? Or do you support candidate Y's position that parents should have their kids "layer up"?  I was informed at the end that this was a poll conducted for candidate X.

Does bias like this happen in general election polls?

Another thought..My husband and I are both registered republicans, have donated to McCain/Palin and are likely voters.  Would they even bother to poll us?  If not, do they count people like us?

I'd be curious to poll McCain supporters to find out what percentage DO NOT show public support (signs, bumperstickers, buttons, etc.) because they feel being labeled as racist.  Many likely keep their vote secret to avoid the social stigma.

I bet there are a lot of folks out there like that.  Not only has Pravda been shilling for Obama non-stop since he won the Iowa Caucuses, they’ve been vilifying McCain as “running the sleaziest campaign ever” and labeling Palin a dumb, corrupt, racist chillbilly.  So admitting you’re voting for McCain/Palin puts you at risk for personal criticism or worse.  A lot of people just don’t want to deal with that crap.  (Thank god for secret ballots)

Dave in Texas is scary.  I'm glad he's on my side.

you guys are getting a little to anti-confrontational for me...a new lady started at my job the other day....second thing i said to her was who are you voting for? when she said mccain i said good because if you said obama i was going to tell the boss to fire you....she started laughing.....i told her i wasn't joking and walked away.

I have done the sort of work that Ace is writing about as a caller and a supervisor. In my experience the outfit is small with around 3-4 full time employees to do the analysis and a few more like me who were called in as needed. No more than a dozen regulars total. The owners are always scrambling to get projects. If they're lucky, they have a connection to a campaign or politician whom they can count on for steady work every 2-4 years.

The people I worked with were, for the most part, working in the evenings as an easy second job or were college/ high school students. They are given about 15 minutes of training and none of it has to do with inducing a biased response (voice inflection, speaking clearly). Training usually involves going through the questionnaire 2-3 times to familiarize them with the survey flow. The turnover rate in these places is ridiculous. In a class of 30 new hires, I've had half of them leave during their first break and never come back. The usual expectation is that none of the rest will last more than a month before they head back to Taco Bell or another pollign outfit.

Second thing is there is usually some sort of prize or bonus involved for completing the most interviews. These people are making >$12/hr. for 20-30 hours a week, so hitting the bonus means an extra $20-25 tax free. This is an aspect that's important because if someone hangs up mid-interview (happens a lot), that doesn't count towards the bonus/prize total so, the interviewers just sort of finish it up and hope they don't get caught. And, even if they do get caught, it's likely to be overlooked. Believe it or not, it's sort of hard to find people willing to call up complete strangers and ask them questions during prime time.

Third, that faked survey counts toward the overall goal even if it's a known fake because there is usually a goal that has to be met and there's probably another project waiting to be started. The thought is 1 bad survey out of 500-600 isn't going to make that much of a difference in the results.

But (just to name a few factors) faked surveys, women with cute/sexy voices getting the bonus every night, asking questions in a certain tone of voice, the type of people that are willing to do surveys, the turn of events during the polling, all these biases gets mixed into the same pot. Not a single survey is without one or more of these biases. Saying the MOE is +/- 3.5% and whether it actually is, is not truly possible to know.

Yeah, you're basically screwed.

www.electoral-vote.com

www.election-projection.net

www.fivethirtyeight.com

My favorite approach with this kind of thing is to string them along.  I'm (usually) honest up front and tell them my intentions.. in the case of sales people, I tell them I'm not going to buy.  When they push, I then tell them I'll listen.  Since I write software, I actually continue to work while they attempt to sell me.  I respond weakly or agree with them, but generally try to string them along as long as I possibly can.  Then, at the end, I point out to them that my position hasn't changed.  If they want to continue, fine.  Repeat as necessary until they have lost their mind.  With political selling, I think of it as a service to my candidate... keeping the person from contacting that many more people.

CC