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Battleground Poll: Three Points

And Rasmussen shows a three-point swing, too.

And while you're there -- Hugh Hewitt eulogizes his friend and guest host.

Posted by: Ace at 05:41 PM



Comments

1 three points, please!  After a solid week of redistributionist Obama, that should be enough to become a 5 point lead.

unless this is another one of those issues that McCain has decided not to talk about.

Thanks for fighting for us, buddy!

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 27, 2008 05:47 PM (QxSug)

2 PPP owes me an AP poll showing Mac leads by one.

Posted by: Judd at October 27, 2008 05:49 PM (BXHeE)

3 He wants to fight the GOOD fight, not the dirty, filthy knife fight that our enemies want to bring us down with.

A-4 Skyhawks at 20 paces? Uh, probably not.

Jeez, let's all just drag his ass over the finish line and save our collective ones in the process.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2008 05:49 PM (zpaDL)

4 Hewitt wonders why McCain is in PA again.  In fact, he and Palin have been in PA several times a week, each week -- more, I think, than any other state.

I suspect that one big reason (besides the fact that it's close -- so are a lot of other states, probably) is that PA is one of the states we're trying to win by turning out Democrats (the bitter clingers who supported Hillary).  The GOP 72 hour program seems pretty good at getting Republicans and conservatives, but I can't imagine it can be tuned for PUMAs all that quickly.  The best way to ensure they actually turn out may, I suspect, be these big rallies -- mostly fronted by Palin, particularly in northern and western PA.

Posted by: someone at October 27, 2008 05:50 PM (zHoxL)

5 Is it too much to hope for that the McCain campaign is working with PUMAs behind the scenes?

Posted by: Dead Career Sketch at October 27, 2008 05:54 PM (JTN0y)

6 Is it too much to hope for that the McCain campaign is working with PUMAs behind the scenes?

They definitely are.  But whether this can get them access to likely voter lists, etc...  I dunno.

The GOP guy who noted that we're way ahead of the Dems on this stuff isn't kidding.  My parents said that Obamoid door-knockers pestered them twice yesterday -- total waste of time, as even a cursory voter registration check would have indicated.  Dems do great (if shady) ground game in the cities, but I suspect a lot of the money elsewhere is just being pissed away.

Posted by: someone at October 27, 2008 05:58 PM (zHoxL)

7

The Pumas are really stoked that the Cali early/mail voting only has Democrat votes up by 1000 out of 200,000+ votes cast. They're not tabulating, just sorting by party. That's not so good for Barry HO

I'd really love to see Palin stop by NY/NJ/CT just for shits and giggles.

But McCain and Palin really have to do a TV buy after Barry HO's. They can't let him get a whole 1/2 hour unfiltered and unanswered.

Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2008 06:00 PM (9221z)

8 Yeah, the early voting numbers aren't producing that overwhelming Dem turnout that these big poll leads are based on... No big turnout, no big win for Barry....

Posted by: Stinky Esposito at October 27, 2008 06:04 PM (MMC8r)

9 Let's go Phillies !!!!

Posted by: Jay at October 27, 2008 06:04 PM (qddqX)

10 really, what could Barry say in his 1/2 hour that hasn't already been said?  Then again, I imagine there is a ton of stuff McCain could say that would pump up the people like his convention bounce.  Defend Palin, talk about his experience, talk about the surge.  Talk about credit crisis, etc.

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 27, 2008 06:05 PM (QxSug)

11 Mac should run Ayres, Wright, and Redistribution of Wealth commercials before and after Barry's sermon.

Posted by: Barry Obamuh at October 27, 2008 06:09 PM (UlUtt)

12

#7

Seriously, what good will the 30 minute ad do? From what I gather Obama's been bombarding every TV and radio channel with constant ads; surely people are sick to death of him? Maybe that can be McCain's line in the final days "Vote for us and you'll never have to see or hear Obama again!"

Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 27, 2008 06:09 PM (fpdWP)

13 Someone,

The interesting thing to me this whole election is how out of touch the Republican commentariat is with what is actually happening on the ground.  Not knocking Hewitt he's been pretty good, but if you've been paying attention at all you know why McCain is in PA and you know PA is, according to both campaign's numbers, very close.  Barone ( also normally good) makes the same mistake today.  I seriously think journalists only report for one another... to the exclusion of reality.  Remember how they reported on Sadr?  Malki in Basra?  Katrina?  Corrupt and delusional is no way to gove through life, journalists.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 27, 2008 06:09 PM (1g+FW)

14 And the thirty minute commercial idea s seriously dumb.  Only a really silly narcissist would ever try to float that.

Posted by: The OBvious at October 27, 2008 06:11 PM (1g+FW)

15

He needs to have Palin speak in his 1/2 hour. Preferably they'd buy an hour, and each one would do 1/2.

Hell, even if they don't do a TV buy, they should do a video anyway and release it on the web. Because you know the TV stations aren't going to accomadate McCain like they did Barry HO.

Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2008 06:11 PM (9221z)

16 I don't know what The Obvious is talking about because I am probably cocooned as well.  But if he is saying that support for Obama is very squishy among normal people and that there are still a ton of undecideds that probably won't vote, or at least won't vote for Obama and just need to be reminded that McCain is an adequate choice, then I would concur.

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 27, 2008 06:13 PM (QxSug)

17 Interesting point at Hillbuzz about Nader being on the PA ballot this time.

Posted by: someone at October 27, 2008 06:20 PM (zHoxL)

18 What I am saying very bluntly is that Obama isn't up by double digits in PA.  That everyone who has read this blog, any PUMA blog or Hot Air knows that McCain is there because he has a good chance to win there.  We alo know that the polls have narrowed to the point that the Stop Obama bus was in Michigan today.  And that Iowa isn't a foregone conclusion, either. Pretending that survye USA or the RCP averages is dispostive of any thing other than bad polling is just silly.  Sort of like pretending that Maliki was going to be defeated in Basra, or that Sadr was going to be King of Iraq was simply relying on bad journalism.  But journalists do this sort of stuff all the tme...they take information that is flat wrong and use it to create a false perception.  McCain behind at this point...maybe.  McCain should concede PA.  Silly. 

Posted by: The Obvious at October 27, 2008 06:24 PM (1g+FW)

19 I predict that there will be many calls from certain persons for the *ahem* impromptu hanging of Ralph Nader come November 5.

(I have avoided the 'L' word in respect for Ace's calls for us to be sensitive cocksuckers.)

Posted by: Warthog at October 27, 2008 06:24 PM (U0JQP)

20

Dems do great (if shady) ground game in the cities, but I suspect a lot of the money elsewhere is just being pissed away.

If the Dems are counting on their ground game, remember that Axelrod only has experience (with the exception of Duval in deep blue Mass) with urban elections.  

Posted by: Lee at October 27, 2008 06:27 PM (TxTIh)

21 And that Iowa isn't a foregone conclusion, either.

Obama isn't going to win Iowa. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Those farmers may not like the idea of losing their ethanol subsidies, but they like the idea of working on ☭ People's Collective Maize Farm #435 ☭ even less.

Posted by: Dead Career Sketch at October 27, 2008 06:35 PM (JTN0y)

22

The sun is rising.

All you fuckers mount up whilst I run upstairs and toot that honking big horn.

 

Posted by: Gimli, son of Gloin at October 27, 2008 06:37 PM (wgLRl)

23 Barry HO??

Iblis, how dare you call Obama a HO? Prostitutes are respectable workers who work to earn their living. They don't just help themselves to your money.

Posted by: Tushar at October 27, 2008 06:39 PM (PTWes)

24 Dead,
He's not gong to win NV. either.  Those casino owners aren't going to let him tax away everyone's disposable income for the next four years.  People that read blogs as opposed to journalists know that.  Because blogs still think that telling the truth is more important than creating a certain perception.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 27, 2008 06:40 PM (1g+FW)

25 I think McCain actually does have momentum. And if they really do make a trip up to Michigan, Barry must be in real trouble. I hope and pray. Oh, and pray does work

Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2008 06:52 PM (9221z)

26

Man, that's a hell of a note about Dean.  Life is way too short, sometimes...

Godspeed, Dean.

Posted by: Additional Blond Agent at October 27, 2008 06:57 PM (PMGbu)

27 Homophobic racist sodomite rump rangers. What do all of you roadkill eaters know? You don't write a column. G-d I love my vodka.

Posted by: Pegggy Nooonaan at October 27, 2008 07:01 PM (HsNXz)

28 Actually, Ol' Peg's latest column ain't to bad.  Methinks she may be off somewhere on a bender, and some staffer wrote it.

Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at October 27, 2008 07:08 PM (wgLRl)

29 I was in Wisconsin this weekend and half of the group I worked with were PUMAs, so they're with us on the ground, whatever the campaign is doing.

One McCain household was literally jumping up and down when we told them who we were because they had suffered through 3 visits by Obamabots that morning.  So, yeah, they're wasting quite a bit of time.

One probable Obama houselhold (though the man of the house certainly sounded like he was looking for an excuse to vote McCain over the protest of his son) mentioned that Obama canvassers had been by and whined about how his neighborhood must have hidden wealth or something because no one 'cares about the issues.'  So yeah, their ground people know they're wasting their efforts, too.

Posted by: Methos at October 27, 2008 07:10 PM (QHtlg)

30

Just from my personal experience the last couple months, I don't think Obama's campaign could be called targeted.  Not in the least.  Best description from what I can tell is carpetbombing.  Heck, maybe they should be bombarding everyone given the huge financial advantage they have.  Still, I am almost certain that the McCain camp is getting a better return on their investments, vastly more votes per dollar.

To give some details, I've always voted republican.  I show up for most primaries and all elections.  I donate to the RNC occasionally.  I donate to republican candidates occasionally also.  There is nothing in my record that would indicate that I would vote for Obama.  Demographically I am in a swing state (Missouri), and in a key county (St. Louis), and am somewhat young (33).  Other than that there is no reason that I'd be a targeted voter.

Yet, nearly every day I am getting mail from their campaign.  Hatchet pieces that lie about McCain's healthcare plan, distort his relationship with lobbyists, 90% with Bush, on and on it goes.  Day after day too.  I don't mind, it is wasted $'s for them.  I've already voted. 

Twice in the past week, Obama supporters have come to my door to attempt to win my vote.  The first time I had to meet up with family so I brushed him off.  The second time I played a undecided with a McCain lean, and took around a half hour of his time, if not more, talking about tax plans, spending discipline, and a little foreign affairs.  Again, I was happy to waste their resources a little bit.

Contrast with what McCain campaign has done.  I donated to the campaign early Sept.  Within a week, I recieved a mailer that had 2 forms to request an absentee ballot.  I turned one in, my girlfriend turned the other, and we've voted for him. 

I guess what I am getting at, in longwinded fashion, that my anecdotal evidence is that Obama is aggressively pursuing votes wherever they can be found.  He has the money to do it, but is he really going to get good returns from it?  McCain's approach seems to be targeted.  If you know where your votes are coming from, and republicans usually do, then you can make do even with fewer dollars.  I still think the republicans have vastly underrated organizational abilities.  I'm going to stay skeptical of these 7,8,9 point spreads in party ID until I see it.  I believe this is closer than most polls suggest.

 

 

 

Posted by: Dave S at October 27, 2008 07:12 PM (uHiz2)

31

Anybody have the Dem/GOP makeup on the battleground and Ras polls?  Any indication that they are overweighting Dems as has been seen with many other polls?

The anecdotal evidence that McCain is doing better than the polls suggest is good news (if true).  I am in a deep blue state so I have barely seen any campaign spots for O or McCain but I do sense that while the upper income Dems are gaga for Barry the blue collar Dems are not that crazy about him.

Posted by: AWW at October 27, 2008 07:34 PM (JcoKu)

32 Dave S
I think the problem here is Obama's unprecedented ego.  Remember how he was going to compete in all 50 states?  Look at his life.  He's been patted on the head and praised every step of the way.  He got on the Harvard Law Review because of his heritage (please correct me if you've seen his transcripts, but until he proves he's in fact smart, I'm not going to believe it).  He won his state senate office by removing all competition from the ballot.  His US Senate seat came as the result of friendly media opening divorce records of both his opponents.  Every step of his life was paved for him and he's bought into the hype.  He expects everyone to love him (aside from a handful of racists and those nasty top 1%ers).

Posted by: Methos at October 27, 2008 07:36 PM (QHtlg)

33 I think Rass is still using a 39/33 split D/R

Posted by: Sean at October 27, 2008 07:41 PM (vZzYJ)

34 21 And that Iowa isn't a foregone conclusion, either.

Obama isn't going to win Iowa. Nope. Not gonna happen.

Those farmers may not like the idea of losing their ethanol subsidies, but they like the idea of working on ☭ People's Collective Maize Farm #435 ☭ even less

McCain/Palin were campaigning in Davenport (2 Saturdays ago or was it one?) and then were back in Iowa again last weekend.  They're asking us (Illinoisans) to go door-knocking over there as well.

Posted by: d at October 27, 2008 07:49 PM (a/oUA)

35 Remember: if the pollsters aren't deliberately tanking their numbers to try to adjust for the Bradley and Obama girl factors these numbers mean a significant McCain victory.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 27, 2008 08:05 PM (0+Ggj)

36 At this point a game 6 looks doubtful but if it gets that far... Obama is gonna hork off a lot of baseball fans by talking over the start time.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 27, 2008 08:07 PM (0+Ggj)

37 The point being is that polls or not, we got some volunteering to do.

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 27, 2008 08:18 PM (QxSug)

38 Of course Barone decides to piss all over our PA fantasies. Bastard.

Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2008 09:59 PM (mIDlc)

39 Actually Obama probably just finished his chances in PA, Ohio, VA and CO with his second round of wealth distribution silliness.  Look, I'm not upset with Barone.  It's his cred.  He can throw it away if he wants.  Just don't expect me to buy into his claims on Nov 5th that the unexpected has happened.

Posted by: The Obvious at October 27, 2008 10:23 PM (1g+FW)

40 Well, hate to be a downer, but check out the Electoral Map on RCP.  McCain has to win all the toss-ups and turn some of the "leaning Obamas."  I agree some of the polls have to be screwy (Montana a toss-up?)  However, when I hear people say "The polls are all wrong" it sounds like rationalization.  McCain can prevail, but it's pretty damn unlikely.  Keep hope alive, keep volunteering, vote, give money, etc., but don't get too depressed election night if McCain doesn't pull it off.

Posted by: Bob at October 28, 2008 12:38 AM (4DoFz)

41 #40 Obama polled 5-9 better in polls than he got in contest primary states.  If you apply that filter, it doesn't look too rosy for Obama.

I think you can feel the changing in the winds and the polls are moving towards McCain.  Polls since the weekend show Obama with a less than 5 point lead on average and with the Zogby numbers coming out in 10 minutes that leads is shrinking even still.  The lead is now getting into the danger zone for Obama.  A few more points and you will see trolls all over this site like we have never seen.

The state poll numbers have been collapsing for Obama, some states have polls with leads for McCain now that haven't had McCain in the lead for weeks.  State polls are lagging indicators as well so they are only going to get better with the national polls tightening.  Hold on and go get those last voters for McCain.

Posted by: David at October 28, 2008 12:55 AM (HAdov)

42 hey david (41)..what state polls do you refer to? and i have seen some of your other posts i believe that mention some internals...do you work for the campaign? i have been saying for a while, NC (my home state) will go for McCain.  it is not going to be that close...closer than 2004 yes, but still by 5%...

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Liberal Consistency and Other Myths
Kepler's Laws of Liberal Media Bias
John Kerry-- The Splunge! Candidate
"Divisive" Politics & "Attacks on Patriotism" (very long)
The Donkey ("The Raven" parody)
News/Chat