1 Ace- where's the babysitting story??

2 Icemike,

Relax.  Best not to talk about it before hand.

3 What did I tell you. Two yesterday one today. It's a moving average. A two point change in a day is actually six points. One again tomorrow.

4 In best droid voice: "Roger roger"

5 am i an idiot for thinking we got this?

6 Ace -- my husband, who has been reading your blog since forever, turned me on to it a few weeks ago, and now I'm addicted : ). Now I've been telling all my friends to read it. About the polls: I'm not a big believer, but they are definitely giving much more hope to McCain. I still say he can win this. Don't give up hope, people. Go out and vote! Especially if you're in an early voting state. I'm in Connecticut, and while my state almost never votes republican, I'll be out there on nov 4 voting for McCain. He still has a major shot guys!!!

7 I love how they look at a collapsing lead and talk about the race "stabilizing" (just before the third model).

So if Gallup and IBD are about +4, AP is +1, and frgging CBS is +15 (or whatever), does it really take that much effort to sort out who's right and who's completely batshit crazy?

8 It's worth noting that one of the details in the Gallup vote is no change in new voter percentage from 2004.

In other words, if they're basing anything on the yoot vote, they got nothing.

9

well hey imagine that. it was at 12. now 4.

Hey maybe McCain does know what he is doing.

Of course he does. We will chip and pound away at Senator Government until the 4th. The seeds of distrut and scare have been planted. Now, we destroy his credibility on the economy and expose his Marxist approach to redistribution of the wealth.

Stand up and fight. Nothing is inevitable.

Defend freedom.

Defeat Senator Government.

10

My hope is that the deluge of Barack Obama commercials in the next two weeks will eventually drive people to say "OHGOD OHGOD OHGOD NOT AGAIN JUST SHUT THE FUCK UP OBAMA" at which point they'll vote for McCain

I'm reality-based.

and I approved this campaign observation.

-

_{and, just because it will be meaningful later, Pennsylvania Republicans nominated a black man - Lynn Swann - as their Gubernatorial candidate in 2006.  Lynn Swann, black man, got 40% of the general vote.}

11

It's worth noting that one of the details in the Gallup vote is no change in new voter percentage from 2004.

They've been basing all of their poll weighting on all of the new young democrats that were supposed to be out there..the kicker is there aren't any more than there were in 2004. 

So..if I'm reading all of this information correctly, the polls have been wrong all along which actually puts McCain ahead.  Right?? 

Please tell me I'm right.  LOL

12 I think the ad buys will be about equal from this point forward. McCain is finally starting to spend his money. Networks are required to give him equal time. Obama will have to shift his extra cash to the ground game.

13 SueM, you're right.

But you still need to get out and vote, along with any patriot you know.

Of course, remind Dems to vote on the 7th.

14 You need an update ace, second poll with Obama only up 1.  The IBD/TIPP poll posted.

15

Like I said earlier, I believe its b/t 4 and 7. Four is totally winnable, 7 is gonna be a hard slog.

Even 7 is doable if the undecideds take a REAL long look at Senator Share the Wealth

 

16 WTF is up with the battleground poll today showing O up by 12 in Ohio?

17 The Battleground poll Geraghty posted is actually from yesterday.  Today's has Obama up 4

18

It makes absolutely NO sense to be up 2 nationally but up 12 in Ohio, which should track the nation as a true swing state

I call bullshit either on the Ohio poll or the national one. They literally cannot both be right

19

Oh, thanks Dan

So one fuckign day swings 8 points

The polls are more fucked than ever this year, by far

20

The polls are more fucked than ever this year, by far

Posted by: TMF at October 23, 2008 02:18 PM (waaUg)

They're scrambling. 

21

That IBD/TIPP number is nice, but did anybody look at the internals?  McCain is not likely to get 74% of the 18-24 vote.  I don't think it's going that much for Obama either, but that's just not a believable number. 

22

My hope is that the deluge of Barack Obama commercials in the next two weeks will eventually drive people to say "OHGOD OHGOD OHGOD NOT AGAIN JUST SHUT THE FUCK UP OBAMA" at which point they'll vote for McCain

Actually, I have heard this from several people who are not generally politically aware - they're pissed off at Obama for constantly interrupting their ball game or reality show or whatever it is these retards do with all their free time. They're saying they never want to hear the word "Obama" ever again. Call it the "Shut the fuck up, Obama" Effect.

23 People, this is a huge misinformation campaign by the media.  We are going to win going away.  Fight hard to the finish, but the end of this current nightmare is near.

If you see someone wavering, you now have 2 polls to show them that McCain is within one point and one of them is from the AP, unbelievably enough, that even second checked their numbers cause they didn't believe it.

24 And it doesn't help that Obama constantly runs the same commercials over and over again. Sometimes you see the same fucking Obama commercial 6 times in the course of an hour. Once I saw them run the same 30-second commercial back to back. Nice job annoying the hell out of viewers, Obama.

25

The obama ad deluge is massive in PA

During game 1 last night it was literally one to two Obama or DNC ads PER BREAK

People of reason should get nauseous, but in PA there are plenty of folks especially people over 60 that dont think rationally.

They just think "OH MY GOD MCCAIN IS GOING TO CUT OFF MEDICARE CUZ THE COLORED GUY SAID HE WOULD" and thats enough

26 I'm having visions of Barry's half-hour infomercial coming off something like this.

27

Hey, don't the mobies and trolls usually show up in the poll threads? Where are they?

Somebody go link to this thread in the Axelturfing forum at Kos.

28 No one that I see is trolling the campaign donation threads either, but give it time.

29 Agree Watchman, that is a screwy poll.

30 Thanks. I needed this.

31 WTF is up with the battleground poll today showing O up by 12 in Ohio?

If that's the big ten battleground poll, they oversampled Democrats by about 13 points.

32 Obama Rulz!!!!!111!!!eleven!!

33 I think that Undecideds will break bigtime for McCain. Nobody is undecided because they are sure about Obama but unsure about McCain. They are undecided because they know McCain is the boring but known choice. They want to get groovy with Obama, but are unsure of him. Safe and boring wins.

34 There is not going to be an abnormally high youth vote.  Everyone said there would be tons of youth votes in 1992, because Clinton was so hip, youthful, and JFK like.  This will be no different.

The only plus Obama has over Clinton is that he is black, but among the youth, that really is not some earth shattering, historically big deal.  Anyone under 35 has a much more indifferent view of race than the aging hipsters from Woodstock.  So no, Obama will not get a disproportionate youth vote.

On the "republican brand is destroyed" - there is no way we are going to get worse than 1992 - as the economy was crap then and the link to Bush was much stronger.  1992 had a 6 point favor for Dems in VoterID: 30/36/29 Rep/Dem/Ind.

The only reliable poll now is one that has something close to a 30/36/29 breakdown.  Do any of them?

35

Hey TMF i am from PA. WHy insult us? Is that not what Senator Government and Murtha did?

I know you meant no harm.

However, on the ground in PA which has the largest percentage of seniors(13%) i would applaud and work the senior vote. Which i do.

Seniors were a huge reason Hillary hammered Osama-bama.

In the primary there was a poll on Senator Government's assault of ads(3-1 over hillary) and the respondents, over a majority said his non-stop ad campaign made them less likely to vote.

Keep the faith and do not surrender. PA is McCain country i bet the farm.

As long as the base stays true and firm we will win. We will MN and WI to.
Also, poeple ask why we are campaigning in Iowa. Because we are going to win.

The polls there are skewed. Iowa never goes blue. The only reason they say it will now is because of the caucus. BUT, a primary is far from a caucus. The voters for Clinton who caucused, in any caucus state. I bet they go for mac at least 40%.

Senator Government cheated the caucus by bussin folks in and agitating in Alinsky style. Taking over caucus places and the sheets. Look at Texas for the biggest example. Where they got 40% if the caucus counted and declared him the winner and quit counting.

There are alot of documented irregularities. Thousands.
Senator Government's support is soft outside of the angry left.
There also have been 3 polls in the last 2 days showing Mac winning amongst young voters.

36 From Michelle Malkin  new Poll shows Murtha Down 48% to 35%http://tinyurl.com/19y

37 If the presumed tidal wave of new voters does not exist (like Ras tells us today), then those huge oversamplings of dems are way off target.  Regardless of what the polls say, we have to keep focused, continue to persuade undecideds (and soft dems) and make sure we get everyone to the polls on November 4th.  McCain and Palin (especially) are hanging in there despite the corrupt media  - and they need our suppport.  Finish strong and fight to the finish!!

38 I detest racists.  That being said, I will not fault a racist's vote against Obama in this election.  My conscience is easy with that, too:  Racists are entitled to their opinions, no matter how hateful those opinions are.  Our opinions may align - for different reasons, of course, but we both have the right to our opinions, and while under other circumstances, I might find this unholy alliance troublesome, I'll gladly save my proselytizing for another day to accomplish a righteous end.

39

Will Obama get a huge influx of voters?

Yeah but it may be in traditional deep blue states like CA, NJ, NY, WI,WA-heavy  liberal, college populations.

Will he get a big bump in swing states? The size of the undecided this late spells big  trouble.Remember, he could not put away Hillary through the primary/caucus'- he needed superduper delagate guilt to get him across.

If youre not for Barry with 12 days left, when will you be?

40 I agree Jazz. Obama went to a racist church for 20 years and i argue he himself is a racist. It is okay for Racists who support him. In america there are all kinds from all backgrounds. If it is okay in their eyes for Wright and Obama. It is okay for any other private citizen. That is the standard they set.

41 >>he himself is a racist. It is okay for Racists who support him.

ppp,

people who support Obama are by definition not racist. People who support McCain are by definition racist. If you don't agree with this, you are a ..... um......RACIST!!!!!!!

42 Might want to check those crosstabs in the IPD/TIPP poll that ace just GUSHES over.

"IBD/TIPP has John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds. Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?"

...

The chances of that happening?

"Using a binomial distribution, the odds are 54,604,929,633-to-1 against. That is, about 55 billion to one."

Good luck guys. You're totally going to win the youth vote by 50+ points. The election is totally over. McCain landslide.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/ whats-wrong-with-this-picture-aka-nate.html

Love,

DW

43 Also hot off the presses. Polls are really swinging today!

SurveyUSA: Obama Way Ahead in Pennsylvania A new SurveyUSA poll in Pennsylvania shows Sen. Barack Obama way ahead of Sen. John McCain, 53% to 41%.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/ 2008/10/23/surveyusa_obama_way_ahead_in_pennsylvania.html
Et tu Montana?
(AP) A new poll shows that Democrat Barack Obama could be edging ahead of Republican John McCain in Montana.

Obama is at 44 percent and John McCain is at 40 percent in the Montana State University-Billings poll released Thursday. The poll reverses others from earlier in the fall that showed McCain with a lead in the state.

http://www.kxmb.com/ News/288813.asp

44 ppp - I wanna party with you.  (I don't drink or smoke, but I enjoy a good story and can tell a few.  I'm not against those vices, either, I just don't partake.)  I'm all in under the "McCain's gonna win!" tent for a variety of reasons.  I've been spreading the good word and trying to bring people's moods up;  it's hard to convince them at times, but people seem to appreciate it.  We'll have a celebratory  internet beer on Nov. 5!

45 Nice to see you back dw.  I hear from Drudge you just finished up your day job.

46 Hey, Obama is up25 points in Texas! www.bullshitpoll.com/texas

And Alabama! www.bullshitpoll.com/alabama

And O is up 49 points in Utah!


Pack it in, bitches!

47

Wasnt IBD the closest in calling the 2004 and the 2006 elections?

 

48

A couple o' points...

* I hate generic polls. Americans don't elect our Presidents. We select, by  state, electors to the Electoral College. A Gallup poll which tells me that the split is 48/43 tells me nothing. A RealClearPolitics electoral map may tell me something, but because they use an average of smaller and more questionable state-wide polls, I remain suspect. In other words, the polls are nice for parlor talk with morons, but I think there is far more that I don't know than that which I do.

b) Just like with the stock market, the volatility with these polls makes predictions very iffy.

III. The Hopium Smokers™ think they've got thing won. They may be right, but in the event that they're not (and I certainly hope this is the case), I think they're going to go absolutely batshit crazy. They're going to make the Code Pink harpies look like the League of Women Voters. I have been laying in supplies for the pantry and ammo locker.

49 Wasnt IBD the closest in calling the 2004 and the 2006 elections?

Yes it was 3/10ths of a point or 4/10ths of a point can't remember which

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